The at-large field

[Professor Chaos]

Well that was quite a day.... things got a little more clear today but there's still a lot to be decided in the last week. Here's how I see the bubble shaping up. I may have some teams in the "Already in" category that may be in line for the autobid of their conference depending on what happens next weekend but if you give them an autobid you'd have another team from their conference that would be in their place as a locked in at-large instead.


Already in
South Dakota State (7-2)
Delaware (7-3)
Towson (7-3)
Stony Brook (7-3)
James Madison (7-3)
UC Davis (8-2)
Weber St (8-2)


Win and in (lose and on the bubble)
Chattanooga (6-4) - but they play SEC South Carolina so not very likely, if they lose they're out
Wofford (7-3)#
Elon (6-3) - Plays Maine
Nicholls (7-3)*
North Carolina A&T (8-2)^


Win and on the bubble
Montana (6-4) - Plays Montana St
Montana St (6-4) - Plays Montana
Idaho St (6-4) - Plays Weber St
Indiana St (6-4) - Plays WIU
Monmouth (7-3)
Furman (5-4)#
Southeast Missouri State (7-3)
North Dakota (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)*%
Abilene Christian (6-4)
Lamar (6-4) - Plays McNeese
McNeese (6-4) - Plays Lamar


Win and hope for a lot of help
Western Illinois (5-5) - Plays Indiana St
Northern Iowa (5-5)


*One of these teams gets the Southland auto - Nicholls controls their own destiny
^If they win and FAMU loses next week they go to Celebration Bowl thus opening up a spot
#If ETSU loses to Samford the SOCON auto goes to Wofford or Furman so that could strengthen the bubble since ETSU is likely in no matter what.
%They're done (until they play Iowa St on 12/1) so they're on the bubble already if Nicholls wins next week and they don't get the Southland auto.


So that's 7 at-large that are already locked up. 5 more could be claimed with wins next week although 2 of them have tough games with Chatty having the toughest task with South Carolina. That leaves 12 teams on the bubble hoping for losses above them and then there's the 2 MVFC teams hoping for a bubble implosion. One of those teams will be the Southland auto as well so that'll soften the bubble a bit.

[leatherneck177]

Lamar plays McNeese next week, as do WIU and ISUb.

[Professor Chaos]

Lamar plays McNeese next week, as do WIU and ISUb.
Good point... had to do some last minute shifting with McNeese but worth calling out since both need to win.

[FUGameBreaker]

Updated possible 24 team field:


NDSU
EWU
KSU
UC Davis
Weber St.
SDSU
Elon
Delaware
Colgate
JMU
Stony Brook
Maine
Towson
Wofford
JSU
Nicholls St.
ETSU
Furman
NC A&T
Indiana St.
San Diego
Duquesne
Winner of Montana vs. Montana St.
And still one more spot open

[mainejeff]

Well that was quite a day.... things got a little more clear today but there's still a lot to be decided in the last week. Here's how I see the bubble shaping up. I may have some teams in the "Already in" category that may be in line for the autobid of their conference depending on what happens next weekend but if you give them an autobid you'd have another team from their conference that would be in their place as a locked in at-large instead.


Already in
South Dakota State (7-2)
Delaware (7-3)
Towson (7-3)
Stony Brook (7-3)
James Madison (7-3)
UC Davis (8-2)
Weber St (8-2)


Win and in
Chattanooga (6-4) - but they play SEC South Carolina so not very likely
Wofford (7-3)#
Elon (6-3) - Plays Maine
Nicholls (7-3)*
North Carolina A&T (8-2)^


Win and on the bubble
Montana (6-4) - Plays Montana St
Montana St (6-4) - Plays Montana
Idaho St (6-4) - Plays Weber St
Indiana St (6-4) - Plays WIU
Monmouth (7-3)
Furman (5-4)#
Southeast Missouri State (7-3)
North Dakota (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)*%
Abilene Christian (6-4)
Lamar (6-4) - Plays McNeese
McNeese (6-4) - Plays Lamar


Win and hope for a lot of help
Western Illinois (5-5) - Plays Indiana St
Northern Iowa (5-5)


*One of these teams gets the Southland auto - Nicholls controls their own destiny
^If they win and FAMU loses next week they go to Celebration Bowl thus opening up a spot
#If ETSU loses to Samford the SOCON auto goes to Wofford or Furman so that could strengthen the bubble since ETSU is likely in no matter what.
%They're done (until they play Iowa St on 12/1) so they're on the bubble already if Nicholls wins next week and they don't get the Southland auto.


So that's 7 at-large that are already locked up. 5 more could be claimed with wins next week although 2 of them have tough games with Chatty having the toughest task with South Carolina. That leaves 12 teams on the bubble hoping for losses above them and then there's the 2 MVFC teams hoping for a bubble implosion. One of those teams will be the Southland auto as well so that'll soften the bubble a bit.

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex

[GoBlueHens83]

I wouldn't place Delaware in the already in category just yet. We still have to play Villanova, who we have beat like once out of the last 10 meetings. If we lose that puts us at 7-4 with two straight losses to end the season. Even with wins over Elon & Towson, I could see UD being left out.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I still think Montana State is in with a win. Good schedule, 5-3 BSC record and 7 D1 wins...

[ccd494]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex

Relax, he didn't list the teams that currently have autobids.

[Professor Chaos]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex
Maine is the CAA auto... they're in regardless if they lose to Elon next week and lose the auto (which I'm not even sure they can lose the auto at this point). That's why I added the "if you give them an autobid you'd have another team from their conference that would be in their place as a locked in at-large instead" part.

On second thought though I hate Maine so much I think I'll petition the NCAA to rescind the CAA's autobid if they do beat Elon next week.

[leatherneck177]

I see Montana-Montana State game as a play in, same with WIU/ISUb....I believe this game becomes more important as day goes on. There will be an upset or two which possibly open a spot.

I dont see how UNI sneaks in if WIU wins, due to head to head loss.

[TheRevSFA]

Incarnate word gets the SLC auto

[TheKingpin28]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex

Seriously, for the rest of us, **** off.

[katss07]

Wild day, wild year with a seemingly fun finish coming. As PC said, only 7 spots remain for at large teams to grab. This years bubble is weak which means lots of teams will be considered. Really looking foward to next weekend, especially Elon/Maine and KSU/JSU.

Here is my prediction on who gets in:
Wofford (they don’t win the auto)
Elon
North Carolina A&T
Last 4 In:
Indiana St/WIU winner, UIW, Furman, SEMO
First 4 Out Idaho St, MSU/Montana winner, Monmouth, LU/McNeese winner

All just IMHO! xrotatehx

[Professor Chaos]

I still think Montana State is in with a win. Good schedule, 5-3 BSC record and 7 D1 wins...
I think they're in a better spot at 7-4 than Montana would be if they won the brawl and finished 7-4. WIU's loss hurt Montana St though too I think. Sure they've got a tough schedule but at 7-4 they would've lost to every playoff team on their schedule and not beaten any of them (if the bubble implodes to the point where WIU would get in at 6-5 then Montana St would be in easily).

[PaladinFan]

I feel like Elon/Wofford is inevitable.

I hope Furman gets in. I'd like to put up a better effort against Elon, but I think playing the same team 4 times over the last two seasons is enough.

[Professor Chaos]

Incarnate word gets the SLC auto
xconfusedx

They lost to Nicholls head-to-head so I'm pretty sure Nicholls is the auto if they beat SELA. Or are you just assuming Nicholls will **** the bed against SELA like they did last year?

[JSUSoutherner]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex

Get triggered.

[Sycamore62]

Regardless of who wins what there will be a LOT of people not able to sleep next Saturday night

[JSUSoutherner]

I feel like Elon/Wofford is inevitable.

I hope Furman gets in. I'd like to put up a better effort against Elon, but I think playing the same team 4 times over the last two seasons is enough.

If Wofford and Elon get paired you might come see us in Round 1 and if you win you'd get shipped to Kennesaw.

Only other teams I can think of us getting paired with in round 1 are ETSU and Nicholls.

[lionsrking2]

Incarnate word gets the SLC auto

If Nicholls beats us, they get the auto. Otherwise, UIW. The Southland is likely a one-bid league now regardless.

[TheRevSFA]

xconfusedx

They lost to Nicholls head-to-head so I'm pretty sure Nicholls is the auto if they beat SELA. Or are you just assuming Nicholls will **** the bed against SELA like they did last year?

No you’re right.

But the river bell game is known for being one to ruin teams seasons

[JSUSoutherner]

Regardless of who wins what there will be a LOT of people not able to sleep next Saturday night

Win or lose I'm going to sleep like a rock.

[FUGameBreaker]

I feel like Elon/Wofford is inevitable.

I hope Furman gets in. I'd like to put up a better effort against Elon, but I think playing the same team 4 times over the last two seasons is enough.



I could see Furman travel to JSU 1st round (should we beat Mercer)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think they're in a better spot at 7-4 than Montana would be if they won the brawl and finished 7-4. WIU's loss hurt Montana St though too I think. Sure they've got a tough schedule but at 7-4 they would've lost to every playoff team on their schedule and not beaten any of them (if the bubble implodes to the point where WIU would get in at 6-5 then Montana St would be in easily).

They've had to play 3 out of the 4 playoff teams on the road and the one home game was against EWU who are clearly in that elite territory. IMO, going into Missoula and beating a fellow 6-4 win Griz team (your HUGE Rival) in an elimination type game would be pretty impressive.

[Professor Chaos]

If Nicholls beats us, they get the auto. Otherwise, UIW. The Southland is likely a one-bid league now regardless.
Just get the Furman fans to campaign for UIW at 6-4... they've got pretty much an identical resume to Furman so if both are forced to go the at-large route at 6-4 it would be pretty tough to differentiate one from the other.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford is in. You'll save a lot less brain power if you just assume that.

PC is awful. No way we lose that. Massey gives them a 0% chance.

I know in the event we lose then we would be on the bubble, but I'm serious: we are not going to lose that game.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Just get the Furman fans to campaign for UIW at 6-4... they've got pretty much an identical resume to Furman so if both are forced to go the at-large route at 6-4 it would be pretty tough to differentiate one from the other.
But did the Southland lose to a bunch of SEC teams?

[katss07]

Just get the Furman fans to campaign for UIW at 6-4... they've got pretty much an identical resume to Furman so if both are forced to go the at-large route at 6-4 it would be pretty tough to differentiate one from the other.
Yeah, but they don’t have the impressive, resume building cancellation against Colgate.

[mainejeff]

Seriously, for the rest of us, **** off.

Only if you take that hag off your avatar.

xcoffeex

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the bubble teams listed, Furman and SEMO are in.

We can talk about SOS til the chickens come home to roost, but I don't think any of the other bubble teams have a quality win against a playoff team with 8+ wins.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Only if you take that hag off your avatar.

xcoffeex
He can't. It gives his life meaning.

[katss07]

The Maine/Colgate Rd1 game thread will be interesting...

[JSUSoutherner]

The Maine/Colgate Rd1 game thread will be interesting...

Maine's gonna go to New Hampshire... Watch.

[TheKingpin28]

Only if you take that hag off your avatar.

xcoffeex

Oh, are you a triggered snowflake? How adorable.

[katss07]

Maine's gonna go to New Hampshire... Watch.
They’re allergic to UNH, just ask 2013.

I don’t want to be a hater though.

[TheKingpin28]

The Maine/Colgate Rd1 game thread will be interesting...

Considering Colgate fans think we (mostly NDSU) all hate Maine.

[TheKingpin28]

They’re allergic to UNH, just ask 2013.

I don’t want to be a hater though.

Seriously though, stop hating.

[mainejeff]

Oh, are you a triggered snowflake? How adorable.

How about some at-large field discussion?

[katss07]

Seriously though, stop hating.
To be honest, I preferred the dog. Not a political statement, just better to look at.

[Sycamore62]

How about some at-large field discussion?

At-large ugly chick is annoying

[TheKingpin28]

How about some at-large field discussion?

You're going to try and pull that ****. Yeah, ok.

Back on topic, should Maine lose they will be hanging onto that Towson win.

[TheKingpin28]

To be honest, I preferred the dog. Not a political statement, just better to look at.

I posted in another thread, but it was my puppy before she passed away. I miss her every day and she was the perfect beagle.

[Professor Chaos]

I think the bubble teams listed, Furman and SEMO are in.

We can talk about SOS til the chickens come home to roost, but I don't think any of the other bubble teams have a quality win against a playoff team with 8+ wins.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
That's true if you only judge quality wins as wins against playoff teams. I think wins against other bubble teams will count for something also and Montana St (if they beat Montana), Idaho St, and UIW all have multiple of those. I think SEMO is actually going to be one of the weakest of the bubble teams if you really look at who they beat and who they lost to. I think they really need Jacksonville St to beat Kennesaw St next week because if that doesn't happen is a win over 8-3 Jacksonville St (who would have 0 quality wins themselves) enough to offset that fact that SEMO has no quality wins outside of that and 2 bad losses to EKU and Murray St?

Monmouth is about on par with SEMO I'd say. SEMO has 1 quality win which is more than Monmouth but Monmouth has no bad losses which SEMO has 2 of. It's about a wash as I see it.

[Reign of Terrier]

That's true if you only judge quality wins as wins against playoff teams. I think wins against other bubble teams will count for something also and Montana St (if they beat Montana), Idaho St, and UIW all have multiple of those. I think SEMO is actually going to be one of the weakest of the bubble teams if you really look at who they beat and who they lost to. I think they really need Jacksonville St to beat Kennesaw St next week because if that doesn't happen is a win over 8-3 Jacksonville St (who would have 0 quality wins) enough to offset that fact that SEMO has no quality wins outside of that and 2 bad losses to EKU and Murray St?

Monmouth is about on par with SEMO I'd say. SEMO has 1 quality win which is more than Monmouth but Monmouth has no bad losses which SEMO has 2 of. It's about a wash as I see it.Every bubble team has a bad loss or losses IMO.

It's all relative in terms of who has worse losses.

What differentiates the teams I'm talking about is a quality win.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

That's true if you only judge quality wins as wins against playoff teams. I think wins against other bubble teams will count for something also and Montana St (if they beat Montana), Idaho St, and UIW all have multiple of those. I think SEMO is actually going to be one of the weakest of the bubble teams if you really look at who they beat and who they lost to. I think they really need Jacksonville St to beat Kennesaw St next week because if that doesn't happen is a win over 8-3 Jacksonville St (who would have 0 quality wins themselves) enough to offset that fact that SEMO has no quality wins outside of that and 2 bad losses to EKU and Murray St?

Monmouth is about on par with SEMO I'd say. SEMO has 1 quality win which is more than Monmouth but Monmouth has no bad losses which SEMO has 2 of. It's about a wash as I see it.

I agree with this. I think SEMOs chance at an at large bid relies on us beating Kennesaw. They need to dump truck EIU as well.

[katss07]

I posted in another thread, but it was my puppy before she passed away. I miss her every day and she was the perfect beagle.
Sorry to hear this, she was a very good lookin dog. As long as I’ve been on here I’ve kind of associated that photo with you.

Back to the topic: I think if JSU beats KSU, SEMO is the last team in. The committee really values Jacksonville St and a win over the Gamecocks is probably bigger than we think. And it’s not like the loss today to the Racers is a horrible loss.

Another question, are the WIU/ISUb and MSU/UM games play-in matchups?

[Professor Chaos]

Every bubble team has a bad loss or losses IMO.

It's all relative in terms of who has worse losses.

What differentiates the teams I'm talking about is a quality win.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Not all of them. Monmouth and Montana St don't. I'd say that UIW and Indiana St also don't but I concede there's an argument there. For SEMO to give up 34 unanswered to a Murray St team that just gave Tennessee Tech it's first win of the season last week and then lose it on a kickoff return with 20 seconds left is about as bad of a loss as you can get.

[TheKingpin28]

Sorry to hear this, she was a very good lookin dog. As long as I’ve been on here I’ve kind of associated that photo with you.

Back to the topic: I think if JSU beats KSU, SEMO is the last team in. The committee really values Jacksonville St and a win over the Gamecocks is probably bigger than we think. And it’s not like the loss today to the Racers is a horrible loss.

Another question, are the WIU/ISUb and MSU/UM games play-in matchups?

WIU vs ISUb
-WIU wins, they need a ton of help. Had they beat USeD today, then it would have been win and they are in.
-ISUb wins and they are in

MSU vs UM
-MSU had the WIU win in their backpocket until WIU decided not to show up in Vermillion today (also, WIU beat UM)
-UM had the UNI win in their backpocket until UNI decided not to show up in Youngstown today

In order of the 4 on who gets in above the other it would go, IMO: ISUb, MSU, UM, WIU

[Professor Chaos]

Sorry to hear this, she was a very good lookin dog. As long as I’ve been on here I’ve kind of associated that photo with you.

Back to the topic: I think if JSU beats KSU, SEMO is the last team in. The committee really values Jacksonville St and a win over the Gamecocks is probably bigger than we think. And it’s not like the loss today to the Racers is a horrible loss.

Another question, are the WIU/ISUb and MSU/UM games play-in matchups?
I've seen the WIU/ISUb game referred to as a play-in by another poster or two already but I'm not buying it. I think ISUb is probably in if they win but that's not a lock and I think WIU is still going to need a lot of help even if they win that game. The 6-5 MVFC teams that have made it into the field in the past have always had a high quality win or two, be it FCS or FBS, that I think the committee has locked into. UNI has that this year in a win over SDSU but WIU does not (although they do have a win over UNI). I just don't think there's going to be any 5 loss teams in the field.

[Reign of Terrier]

I still have no idea how good Kennesaw is.

Obviously, they are good.

But I'm not joking when I say that 8 of the 9 socon teams would be 8-3 or better against their schedule with the only toss ups being Samford (a socon team) and Jacksonville State. 8 of 9 Socon teams would win the Big South if they switched places with Kennesaw.

I believe Kennesaw would be in the top 3-4 of the socon too, at least, but not undefeated.

By the same token idk if anyone knows how good Jacksonville State is either.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

Sorry to hear this, she was a very good lookin dog. As long as I’ve been on here I’ve kind of associated that photo with you.

Back to the topic: I think if JSU beats KSU, SEMO is the last team in. The committee really values Jacksonville St and a win over the Gamecocks is probably bigger than we think. And it’s not like the loss today to the Racers is a horrible loss.

Another question, are the WIU/ISUb and MSU/UM games play-in matchups?
I don't think they're play ins but they are definitely elimination games.

[Bison56]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex

Gfy

[ursus arctos horribilis]

They've had to play 3 out of the 4 playoff teams on the road and the one home game was against EWU who are clearly in that elite territory. IMO, going into Missoula and beating a fellow 6-4 win Griz team (your HUGE Rival) in an elimination type game would be pretty impressive.

I agree. There are few ways they could win this considering our strengths and their weaknesses and on the field they are tough as hell and could easily beat us down with one name. We all know that one name or we damn well should.

But I think we are in good shape to slow that one guy down. Nobody has but you know...homer feelings. xlolx

Seriously the Griz will kick the **** out of the Bobcats 42-41. It's gonna be a great defensive battle.

[caribbeanhen]

I wouldn't place Delaware in the already in category just yet. We still have to play Villanova, who we have beat like once out of the last 10 meetings. If we lose that puts us at 7-4 with two straight losses to end the season. Even with wins over Elon & Towson, I could see UD being left out.

Let's just finally beat Nova and leave no doubt

but if history repeats, a 7-4 Delaware with those wins you mention would be hard to keep out the way things are in FCS this year.....

[MR. CHICKEN]

..............AN' MARTY'LL....BE RAKIN' LEAVES.....PLAY-OFF SATURDAY..........BROCCO!

[fmftballmgr]

Not all of them. Monmouth and Montana St don't. I'd say that UIW and Indiana St also don't but I concede there's an argument there. For SEMO to give up 34 unanswered to a Murray St team that just gave Tennessee Tech it's first win of the season last week and then lose it on a kickoff return with 20 seconds left is about as bad of a loss as you can get.


Stat wise Murray kicked semo bad. We just four straight turnovers early that lead to 27 points. They had drives of 18,15 and scored directly on two of the turnovers. You take away the TO's and it is not a game.
As for the Tennessee Tech loss it is part of building process that you can't have turnovers (3) and penalties (14) against bad teams and expect to win. Yes we have 2 bad losses but we have a chance to finish with a winning record for the first time in 7 or 8 years. Not bad for an under funded team that the computers predicted that we go 0-11.
Yes I would like to replay the SIU and TTU games but it is what it is.

[mainejeff]

Gfy

Back at ya. Man you NDSU fans are a-holes.

[PAllen]

Doesn't scheduling a game during the playoffs eliminate you from consideration? (UIW)

[AggieFinn]

We've been out of the playoff action for some time...what's the playoff prognosis for UC Davis? Where are they likely to play? (Assuming they can play, and beat Sacramento State next week)

[mainejeff]

Everyone from the CAA makes it unless Elon loses (don't think that they get in at 6-4).

[dewey]

Back at ya. Man you NDSU fans are a-holes.

You are the one that went and called us all haters for not having the Black Bears high enough in the AGS poll...based on your opinion. I listed reasons why I had the Black Bears and you didnt like the response and instead of being a decent poster here (not a troll) you co finally play the all NDSU fans are haters.

It isn't that I or most NDSU hate Maine at all it is your AGS D-bag comments.

Maine is having a good season. Enjoy it and stop being a troll.

Dewey

[mvemjsunpx]

Craig Haley doesn't seem to like Montana's chances…


- With wind chills in the high 20s, No. 5 Eastern Washington gave No. 4 UC Davis the "cold" shoulder in overcoming a 10-0 deficit en route to winning a 59-20 blowout. The Eagles' running game pounded the Aggies, with Antoine Custer Jr., Sam McPherson and Tamarick Pierce combining for 270 yards and six touchdowns, and the Big Sky's No. 1 scoring defense kept Aggies quarterback Jake Maier without a touchdown pass. Those two teams are tied for first place with Weber State - all with 6-1 conference marks - in a great fight to the finish. The Big Sky would get a fourth playoff team if Montana State wins at archrival Montana next Saturday.

The field looks weak, but UM's resume isn't impressive: 0 good wins and 3 bad/questionable losses (4 if you count WIU). MSU only has 2 bad/questionable losses.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Back at ya. Man you NDSU fans are a-holes.


Get lost loser.

You come on here continuously complaining and whining that Bison voters are giving Maine no respect and double down on your bull**it every time.

Good, we are all a-holes....now go away....xcoffeex

[mainejeff]

You are the one that went and called us all haters for not having the Black Bears high enough.

It isn't that I or most NDSU hate Maine at all it is your CPU he bag comments.

Dewey

Well maybe you guys need to get over it and start talking about the topics at hand.

[maine612]

They’re allergic to UNH, just ask 2013.

I don’t want to be a hater though.

We took care of UNH this year! I know they will be back, but good not to have to worry about them in 2018. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the next couple of weeks.
612

[dewey]

You have got to be kidding me. You come to this thread and complain why Maine isn't listed.

Even though the thread is about AT-LARGE teams when Maine is the projected auto bid.

Look in the mirror when complaining about fans staying on the topic being discussed.

Dont bother replying as I am done with you spouting absolutely nothing that helps the AGS community.

Have a great Sunday.

Dewey

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[mainejeff]

We took care of UNH this year! I know they will be back, but good not to have to worry about them in 2018. Will be interesting to see how things play out in the next couple of weeks.
612

Definitely nice to know that UNH will be out of the picture.

[Professor Chaos]

You are the one that went and called us all haters for not having the Black Bears high enough in the AGS poll...based on your opinion. I listed reasons why I had the Black Bears and you didnt like the response and instead of being a decent poster here (not a troll) you co finally play the all NDSU fans are haters.

It isn't that I or most NDSU hate Maine at all it is your AGS D-bag comments.

Maine is having a good season. Enjoy it and stop being a troll.

Dewey
The funny thing is this whole thing started because I had the audacity to rank Towson 5 spots in front of Maine in my poll ballot last week (at least I think that's how it started). This guy has a serious case of little man syndrome.

[dewey]

The funny thing is this whole thing started because I had the audacity to rank Towson 5 spots in front of Maine in my poll ballot last week. At least I think that's how it started (at least I think that's how it started). This guy has a serious case of little man syndrome.

That is my recollection as well. My poll had Maine in a similar ranking and the "hate" ensued.

Good thread as always PC!

Dewey

[Professor Chaos]

We've been out of the playoff action for some time...what's the playoff prognosis for UC Davis? Where are they likely to play? (Assuming they can play, and beat Sacramento State next week)
I think they're in line for a seed (goes to top 8 teams and gets a first round bye). There's a whole load of CAA teams at 7-3 that, with a win, the committee might look on more favorably than a 9-2 UC Davis but I kind of doubt it considering the fact that the committee had UC Davis at #2 in their initial rankings they released on 10/31.

EDIT: I think the Big Sky probably ends up with 3 seeded teams.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The funny thing is this whole thing started because I had the audacity to rank Towson 5 spots in front of Maine in my poll ballot last week. At least I think that's how it started (at least I think that's how it started). This guy has a serious case of little man syndrome.


He'll be gone soon enough.

Your playoff breakdowns must give him ulcers....:Dxlolx

[MacThor]

Was Maine eliminated today?

Hater.

xcoffeex
Seriously? RTFP. Yeah, NDSU was, too.

[mainejeff]

At-large field discussion?....anyone?

Will be interesting to see how the whole CAA thing shakes out. You have to believe that in terms of seeding, those 6 CAA teams in contention are all in the 7-13 range right now.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Seriously? RTFP. Yeah, NDSU was, too.

.....PLEASE SPEAK ENGLISH.......O'.....CHICKEN.........AWK!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

At-large field discussion?....anyone?

Will be interesting to see how the whole CAA thing shakes out. You have to believe that in terms of seeding, those 6 CAA teams in contention are all in the 7-13 range right now.


More than likely 6 CAA teams will be in.

Now how will the committee break all them up on where to play? CAA teams not playing each other during the regular season will probably be matched up if they are busing distance.

[mainejeff]

More than likely 6 CAA teams will be in.

Now how will the committee break all them up on where to play? CAA teams not playing each other during the regular season will probably be matched up if they are busing distance.

If Maine loses on Saturday I can definitely see them heading to Delaware, Stony Brook or JMU (if those teams don't get a bye).

[MR. CHICKEN]

DELAWARE/JMU
STONY BROOK/MAINE

[TheKingpin28]

That is my recollection as well. My poll had Maine in a similar ranking and the "hate" ensued.

Good thread as always PC!

Dewey

You'd think with me having Maine at 12 and Towson at 13 going into this week, he would have backed off, but nope, I get called one as well.

[Leatherneckcountry]

This maybe the weakest field ever there are going to be a lot of bad teams getting in.

[JMUNJ08]

I think they're in line for a seed (goes to top 8 teams and gets a first round bye). There's a whole load of CAA teams at 7-3 that, with a win, the committee might look on more favorably than a 9-2 UC Davis but I kind of doubt it considering the fact that the committee had UC Davis at #2 in their initial rankings they released on 10/31.

EDIT: I think the Big Sky probably ends up with 3 seeded teams.

Due to recent history and not play on the field, JMU was #2 in the rankings on 10/31 with UC Davis at #3. I'm thinking you really have UC Davis, Colgate and JMU as the last 3 seeds right now (though I would much rather be 9th in this scenario...). I could see Maine @ #8 should they win the CAA outright though they have the weakest conference schedule (but W's just as good). If Colgate loses to Army, I think they fall to #8 and the CAA team (JMU if they win vs. Towson and/ or Maine beats Elon) would be #7.

[MR. CHICKEN]

This maybe the weakest field ever there are going to be a lot of bad teams getting in.

.....AH'M...PUTTIN' UH BAG.....UH DUCATS.......ON SAN DIEGO.........IN.......ATLANTIC CITY.......WHEN DUH FUN....BEGINS.....BRAWK!

[Outsider1]

Doesn't scheduling a game during the playoffs eliminate you from consideration? (UIW)Not really, we have already discussed this ad nauseum. It shouldn't be this way, but it is. UIW was given the schedule they were given and had to fill a hole. The contract stated either team could cancel depending on post season. The SLC has already stated how they would handle the lesser # of wins. UIW gets a special case clause,end of story.

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[Reign of Terrier]

I honestly don't know how to make heads/tails of the CAA this year. I think they will get at least 4 in. Possibly if not likely 6. There's going to be a lot of teams at 7-4/8-3 which should be good enough, especially if JMU is sitting at 7-4. I'm tempted to say they are in, but I'm not sure about the others. I wouldn't be surprised if someone got left home.

In my little spreadsheet, I don't really break it down by autobid/at large, but this is what I have:

Already in (17 teams):
NDSU
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
ETSU
Wofford
EWU
Weber
NEC Champ
SDSU
Colgate
San Diego
Southland team
CAA team
CAA team
CAA team
CAA team
UC Davis

Of those "insert team here," these teams can win and be in:
JMU
Delaware
Maine
Elon
Stony Brook
Towson
Nicholls

I have no idea how the NEC shakes up.

And the rest of the bubble is a mystery to me, but I think Furman/SEMO, Indiana State, North Carolina A&T, and Montana/State are in good shape if they win.

[JSUSoutherner]

Not really, we have already discussed this ad nauseum. It shouldn't be this way, but it is. UIW was given the schedule they were given and had to fill a hole. The contract stated either team could cancel depending on post season. The SLC has already stated how they would handle the lesser # of wins. UIW gets a special case clause,end of story.

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I wonder who will come out of the woodwork and scream "Not my SLC Champions" when UIW gets the auto. :D

[Outsider1]

I wonder who will come out of the woodwork and scream "Not my SLC Champions" when UIW gets the auto. :DIt is what it is with the SLC this year. For ACU, most of us are just trying to focus on what we can control and let the chips fall where they may. We have proven ourselves and all will come with time... I won't gripe about UIW.

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[Outsider1]

All year our defense coach has been teaching the lesson, "It is what it is and it costs what it costs". Our defense has learned a lot from that simple statement. I am trying to as well...

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[Professor Chaos]

I wonder who will come out of the woodwork and scream "Not my SLC Champions" when UIW gets the auto. :D
The whole 1 less conference game for UIW turned out to not make much of a difference. It's essentially going to work out the same way it would've if they just decided to give UIW a half game offset with everyone else. If Nicholls wins to get to 7-2 they'll get the autobid over UIW due to head-to-head and if they lose UIW gets the auto since no other SLC team will be better than 6-3 in conference.

[fmftballmgr]

If you think a team that finished could 3rd in the OVC has a shot to make the playoffs your out of your mind SEMO had one chance of getting in and Murray took it from them.

[PAllen]

Not really, we have already discussed this ad nauseum. It shouldn't be this way, but it is. UIW was given the schedule they were given and had to fill a hole. The contract stated either team could cancel depending on post season. The SLC has already stated how they would handle the lesser # of wins. UIW gets a special case clause,end of story.

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I'm not at all debating whether UIW belongs in the playoffs based on their resume to date. I'm simply wondering if UIW really turns down a payday if they make the second round, and what would happen if they didn't.

[mvemjsunpx]

This maybe the weakest field ever there are going to be a lot of bad teams getting in.

It's not as weak as 2016… yet.

[Outsider1]

I'm not at all debating whether UIW belongs in the playoffs based on their resume to date. I'm simply wondering if UIW really turns down a payday if they make the second round, and what would happen if they didn't.

That's actually a good question, but I think they would turn it down. I think they would want to prove themselves. I could be wrong.

[CockyGeek]

I could see Furman travel to JSU 1st round (should we beat Mercer)I've been waiting for this game for 13 years.

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[Gil Dobie]

What about Maine? ;)

[FargoBison]

I'm not at all debating whether UIW belongs in the playoffs based on their resume to date. I'm simply wondering if UIW really turns down a payday if they make the second round, and what would happen if they didn't.

There is a reason why the game is contigent on UIW not making the playoffs, this isn't rocket science.

[TheKingpin28]

There is a reason why the game is contigent on UIW not making the playoffs, this isn't rocket science.

It actually is. The school has to decide if a pay game is more valuable than a potential playoff game should the latter exist. You'd hope they would go for the playoffs to give their student-athletes a chance to win and play for something, but if the school needs money (which I doubt since they have access to the Benson money) would that factor in the decision.

[BisonTru]

Here's a spreadsheet ranked by Massey with teams D1 wins and the chance they win the final game. *FWIW, I gave the Auto to the highest team in the CAA and Big Sky. I'm not sure exactly how they will breakdown, but honestly the Auto doesn't really matter as both conferences will have multiple participants.

I awarded 10 at larges, so four more at larges would need to come from the bubble teams.



Team
Record
D1 Wins
Chance of Win Remaining
Chance of Loss
My Guess


N Dakota StMissouri Valley
10-01.000
10
99%
1%
MVFC


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
7-20.778
7
89%
11%
AL1


E WashingtonBig Sky
8-20.800
7
88%
12%
BigSky


ColgatePatriot League
9-01.000
9
15%
85%
Patroit


UC DavisBig Sky
8-20.800
8
98%
2%
AL2


James MadisonColonial
7-30.700
7
52%
48%
CAA


Stony BrookColonial
7-30.700
7
94%
6%
AL3


Weber StBig Sky
8-20.800
8
57%
43%
AL4


TowsonColonial
7-30.700
7
48%
52%
AL5


KennesawBig South
9-10.900
8
70%
30%
Big South


DelawareColonial
7-30.700
7
77%
23%
AL6


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
5-50.500
5
90%
10%
AL8


ElonColonial
6-30.667
6
41%
59%
AL10


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
5-50.500
5
69%
31%
AL9


MaineColonial
7-30.700
7
59%
41%
AL7


Illinois StMissouri Valley
5-50.500
4
78%
22%
Out


Nicholls StSouthland
7-30.700
7
86%
14%
Southland


Indiana StMissouri Valley
6-40.600
5
31%
69%
Bubble/Out w/loss




Jacksonville StOH Valley
8-20.800
8
30%
70%
OVC


WoffordSouthern
7-30.700
7
100%
0%
Southern


Idaho StBig Sky
6-40.600
6
43%
57%
Bubble


Montana StBig Sky
6-40.600
6
38%
62%
Bubble


MontanaBig Sky
6-40.600
6
62%
38%
Bubble


North DakotaBig Sky
6-40.600
6
69%
31%
Bubble


New HampshireColonial
4-60.400
4
41%
59%
Out


Incarnate WordSouthland
6-40.600
6
0%
100%
Bubble


FurmanSouthern
5-40.556
5
61%
39%
Bubble


Rhode IslandColonial
5-50.500
5
59%
41%
Bubble


South DakotaMissouri Valley
4-60.400
4
11%
89%
Out


ETSUSouthern
8-20.800
7
35%
65%
Bubble


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
4-60.400
4
22%
78%
Out


SamfordSouthern
5-50.500
4
65%
35%
Out


SE Missouri StOH Valley
7-30.700
7
86%
14%
Bubble


VillanovaColonial
4-60.400
4
23%
77%
Out


Abilene ChrSouthland
6-40.600
5
62%
38%
Weak Bubble


William & MaryColonial
4-50.444
4
67%
33%
Out


Cal PolyBig Sky
4-60.400
4
84%
16%
Out


NC A&TMid-Eastern AC
8-20.800
8
93%
7%
Bubble


IdahoBig Sky
4-60.400
3
0%
100%
Out


LamarSouthland
6-40.600
5
48%
52%
Weak Bubble


Missouri StMissouri Valley
4-60.400
4
10%
90%
Out


Portland StBig Sky
4-60.400
4
12%
88%
Out


ChattanoogaSouthern
6-40.600
6
0%
100%
Weak Bubble


CitadelSouthern
4-50.444
4
89%
111%
Out


MercerSouthern
5-50.500
5
39%
61%
Weak Bubble


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
2-80.200
2
1%
99%
Out


McNeese StSouthland
6-40.600
6
52%
48%
Weak Bubble


Sam Houston StSouthland
5-50.500
5
88%
12%
Weak Bubble


Cent ArkansasSouthland
5-50.500
5
38%
62%
Weak Bubble


SE LouisianaSouthland
4-60.400
4
14%
86%
Out


San DiegoPioneer
8-20.800
8
81%
19%
Pioneer


Monmouth NJBig South
7-30.700
7
76%
24%
Weak Bubble

[Derby City Duke]

Well maybe you guys need to get over it and start talking about the topics at hand.

Wish you could rep your school without being a complete jerk about it.

Ordinarily I might apologize to the AGS community when a CAA poster gets a bit froggy, but in your case I'll make an exception.

[MR. CHICKEN]

That's actually a good question, but I think they would turn it down. I think they would want to prove themselves. I could be wrong.


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29475&stc=1........DUCATS LADS.....IT'S WHAA'.....IT WAS SKEDDED.....IN DUH 1st PLACE....LET US EXAMINE........MONEY TA GET BEAT.....O'....NO DINERO...TA GET BEAT........xsighxxsighxxsighx.......BROCCO!

[Outsider1]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29475&stc=1........DUCATS LADS.....IT'S WHAA'.....IT WAS SKEDDED.....IN DUH 1st PLACE....LET US EXAMINE........MONEY TA GET BEAT.....O'....NO DINERO...TA GET BEAT........xsighxxsighxxsighx.......BROCCO!


Nah, they got money xsmiley_wix

[MR. CHICKEN]

Nah, they got money xsmiley_wix


......DEN...WHAA' NOT...SKED UH DOWN-TRODDEN SWAC......FO'....'NOTHERAH DUBBYA....IN LIEU.......O'.....$$$$$$.......xdontknowx......AWK !

[Outsider1]

......DEN...WHAA' NOT...SKED UH DOWN-TRODDEN SWAC......FO'....'NOTHERAH DUBBYA....IN LIEU.......O'.....$$$$$$.......xdontknowx......AWK !

A good question my fine feathered friend... xeyebrowx

[Professor Chaos]

......DEN...WHAA' NOT...SKED UH DOWN-TRODDEN SWAC......FO'....'NOTHERAH DUBBYA....IN LIEU.......O'.....$$$$$$.......xdontknowx......AWK !
They had North Alabama on the schedule (which would not have been a guaranteed win either) but bought it out to play Iowa St. Honestly I think at they time the scheduled the Iowa St game in mid-September they had little to no expectations to even be in playoff consideration (ask 2017 Austin Peay how scheduling 3 FBS games works out for playoff consideration). I would guess they might start scheduling with a little more on an eye towards giving themselves a better shot at 6-7 D1 wins going forward if they have the cash to get by with only 1 FBS game now that they appear to have a team that can contend for a playoff spot.

[Outsider1]

They had North Alabama on the schedule (which would not have been a guaranteed win either) but bought it out to play Iowa St. Honestly I think at they time the scheduled the Iowa St game in mid-September they had little to no expectations to even be in playoff consideration (ask 2017 Austin Peay how scheduling 3 FBS games works out for playoff consideration). I would guess they might start scheduling with a little more on an eye towards giving themselves a better shot at 6-7 D1 wins going forward if they have the cash to get by with only 1 FBS game now that they appear to have a team that can contend for a playoff spot.


Yep, what exactly they were thinking, I don't know. Did they want to get exposure and prove something to themselves? Were they willing to buy out a smaller game for a bigger payout? Who knows... I agree with you Professor that UIW will probably schedule with a bit more purposeful intent from now on.

[Daytripper]

Win or lose I'm going to sleep like a rock.

I, too, will sleep like a rock...but for a different reason. No stress. Just the knowledge that we sucked this year.

[kdinva]

At-large field discussion?....anyone?

Will be interesting to see how the whole CAA thing shakes out. You have to believe that in terms of seeding, those 6 CAA teams in contention are all in the 7-13 range right now.

If Maine beats Elon, Elon finishes 4-3/6-4........to me that is a big bubble for the Phoenix..

Montana State should be in with a win.....as should Idaho St.....Big Sky could be a 4-bid league........five is a BIG stretch.....

UNI must win and get LOTS of help.....I like Indiana state's chances if they win.....

Furman wins: SoCon gets three.....

[FUGameBreaker]

Making the case for FU:

Furman at 5-4 (Hoping to finish 6-4)(All D1 schedule)

Best win 7-3 Wofford (34-14)(currently ranked #15 AGS)
Second best win 6-4 UTC
Worst loss 5-5 Samford
Other tough loses @Clemson (FBS), @ETSU (#18 AGS) and @Elon (#14 AGS)
1 missed game due to Hurricane (vs. Colgate)(Out of our control, can't hold that game against this team)
Trying to win 6 of last 7 games

Still have a chance to tie for SoCon Championship with a win @Mercer and ETSU loss to Samford, which will help our chances as well xthumbsupx

[katss07]

We all know Furman’s case at this point...

Worry about the game this weekend.

[FUGameBreaker]

We all know Furman’s case at this point...

Worry about the game this weekend.



xthumbsupx

[Professor Chaos]

If Maine beats Elon, Elon finishes 4-3/6-4........to me that is a big bubble for the Phoenix..

Montana State should be in with a win.....as should Idaho St.....Big Sky could be a 4-bid league........five is a BIG stretch.....

UNI must win and get LOTS of help.....I like Indiana state's chances if they win.....

Furman wins: SoCon gets three.....
Why sure about Furman getting in with a win but not Elon? If Furman gets in at 6-4 I think that means Elon is already in.

[FUGameBreaker]

Why sure about Furman getting in with a win but not Elon? If Furman gets in at 6-4 I think that means Elon is already in.



I agree, but do you think the committee factors in injuries in Elon's case, they are not the same team now with QB and RB back-ups, does that matter to the committee at all?

[Professor Chaos]

I agree, but do you think the committee factors in injuries in Elon's case, they are not the same team now with QB and RB back-ups, does that matter to the committee at all?
If there was a stark contrast in how they were playing maybe but I don't think you can say that. They beat URI, who is a pretty decent team this year, with those backup guys. If Maine blows them off the field (similar or worse than Towson did) then I could see that argument. But both Towson and Maine are very good so I'd expect the majority of bubble teams to go 0-2 against them.

[FUGameBreaker]

If there was a stark contrast in how they were playing maybe but I don't think you can say that. They beat URI, who is a pretty decent team this year, with those backup guys. If Maine blows them off the field (similar or worse than Towson did) then I could see that argument. But both Towson and Maine are very good so I'd expect the majority of bubble teams to go 0-2 against them.



I agree, so yes only if Maine blow's them out should it be looked at hard, which would mean ending the year with 2 straight blowout loses with these back-ups

[Tuna85]

Kinda glad they have some thinking to do. My team, North Alabama ends it season at 7-3. Would have really liked that last game against Incarnate to finish the season with. More so since it looks like they may have won their conference. Ah well $$$'s.
Will be watching some other FCS teams the next few weeks with an eye on next year's Big South compadres Kennesaw State and Monmouth.

[woffordgrad94]

Why is a team from New Jersey in the Big SOUTH?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Why is a team from New Jersey in the Big SOUTH?

No one in the north wants to claim Jersey.

[woffordgrad94]

No one in the north wants to claim Jersey.
I have heard New Jersey referred to as “the armpit of the East coast”...with Snooki and all that Jersey Shore crap I can kind of see why. But isn’t Monmouth a football only member of the conference? I’m pretty sure they don’t play basketball in the Big South. So now that I hink about it, I think it has to do with the Big South wanting enough football members for an at-large berth and Monmouth really not having anywhere else to go in football.

[TheKingpin28]

No one in the north wants to claim Jersey.

Slightly NSFW (language)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqFLsza1RW4

[Schism55]

I have heard New Jersey referred to as “the armpit of the East coast”...with Snooki and all that Jersey Shore crap I can kind of see why. But isn’t Monmouth a football only member of the conference? I’m pretty sure they don’t play basketball in the Big South. So now that I hink about it, I think it has to do with the Big South wanting enough football members for an at-large berth and Monmouth really not having anywhere else to go in football.
One short layover at Newark Intl is all you need for proof of this xlolx

[dunbar]

Maine’s PBP man, Rich Kimball, had Dr. Brad Teague, the chairman of the FCS playoff committee, on his radio show yesterday.

http://www.downtownwithrichkimball.com/2018/11/12/brad-teague-11-12-18/

[MacThor]

Maine’s PBP man, Rich Kimball

Oh, so that's where he wound up after he didn't kill his wife.

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