Socon playoff scenarios

[Reign of Terrier]

Well, Wofford once again choked.

The good news (for the conference) is that that may open the door for 4 playoff spots.

If Samford wins out, they get the autobid, no ifs,ands, or buts.

If that happens and Wofford and Furman take care of business, you'll see a 4-way for the conference title, but Samford gets the autobid because they beat everyone.

In that situation, Wofford and ETSU may get in. I'm skeptical Wofford gets in. Furman might get in. I am also skeptical.

Either way, congrats ETSU, even without an autobid, you are in!

[FUGameBreaker]

Ill post this here too

YoungTerrier Ive got a question dude

If Furman beats VMI and Mercer
Wofford beats WCU
Samford loses at Citadel and wins at ETSU


You have a 3 way tie of Furman Wofford ETSU at 6-2

All lost to Samford and beat everyone else, furman beat wofford, wofford beat etsu, etsu beat furman


WHO GETS AUTOBID????

[katss07]

Wofford gets in, no doubt it my mind. An 8-3 Wofford team gets in with a 24 team field. They should kill WCU and Presbyterian. I know what getting Woffed is. It ain’t happening.

Winner of Samford/ETSU gets in. Thats an elimination/play in game.

Furman is left out with 6 wins.

[FUGameBreaker]

Wofford gets in, no doubt it my mind. An 8-3 Wofford team gets in with a 24 team field. They should kill WCU and Presbyterian. I know what getting Woffed is. It ain’t happening.

Winner of Samford/ETSU gets in. Thats an elimination/play in game.

Furman is left out with 6 wins.



katss right on que lol


Did SH st get eliminated today?

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the socon will get at least 2 in for sure, but 3 is the most likely and 4 happens if the committee likes Furman.

I don't think Wofford gets in. Two double digital losses and likely finishing 4th in the Socon? Nope

#FireWadeLang

[katss07]

katss right on que lol


Did SH st get eliminated today?
Yes, and embarrassed in the process. But Furman sucks so I’ll post about them.

[FUGameBreaker]

Yes, and embarrassed in the process. But Furman sucks so I’ll post about them.


Haha, cheers xthumbsupx

[FUGameBreaker]

YoungTerrier Ive got a question dude

If Furman beats VMI and Mercer
Wofford beats WCU
Samford loses at Citadel and wins at ETSU


You have a 3 way tie of Furman Wofford ETSU at 6-2

All lost to Samford and beat everyone else, furman beat wofford, wofford beat etsu, etsu beat furman


WHO GETS AUTOBID????



I guess ill just root for this scenario for now, worry about at large once this is dead

Wonder if it would come down to any sort of point differential or something along those lines?

[Reign of Terrier]

So, it looks like the Socon will have its 6th different team in 3 years make the playoffs. If Samford makes a run on it and both ETSU and Samford win a playoff game, that will be 6 teams in the last 4 years from the Socon winning a playoff game.

That's a lot of ifs. But if this were to happen, that would tie the number the CAA has put forward.

[ETSUfan1]

I fear ETSU is out if they lose to Samford.

[FUGameBreaker]

I fear ETSU is out if they lose to Samford.


They are already in, for sure

[ETSUfan1]

If ETSU loses, Samford gets the autobid. Wofford and ETSU would have the same record, and Wofford beat ETSU. Plus Wofford would have one more win over a DI team. I'm telling you, it would be Wofford and Samford, with ETSU at home.

[Reign of Terrier]

If ETSU loses, Samford gets the autobid. Wofford and ETSU would have the same record, and Wofford beat ETSU. Plus Wofford would have one more win over a DI team. I'm telling you, it would be Wofford and Samford, with ETSU at home.8-3 ETSU with only losses against 7-4 Samford (in) and 8-3 Wofford (in) would be quality losses with 2 other decent wins against Chattanooga and Furman.

They would be in.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ETSUfan1]

Well you guys are more versed in this than me. I am used to ETSU football disappointing over and over and over. Then the team gets taken away. Then it comes back and disappoints some more. Crazy to see where we are right now.

[Reign of Terrier]

Well you guys are more versed in this than me. I am used to ETSU football disappointing over and over and over. Then the team gets taken away. Then it comes back and disappoints some more. Crazy to see where we are right now.ETSU dropped their program back when there were only 16 teams in the field. Now there are 24 so there's more margin of error.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Well you guys are more versed in this than me. I am used to ETSU football disappointing over and over and over. Then the team gets taken away. Then it comes back and disappoints some more. Crazy to see where we are right now.

That's what happens when you hire a head coach like Randy Sanders. Any questions?

[PaladinFan]

Well you guys are more versed in this than me. I am used to ETSU football disappointing over and over and over. Then the team gets taken away. Then it comes back and disappoints some more. Crazy to see where we are right now.

Being the 4th SoCon team is never much comfort.

I don't know how you decide the round robin if ETSU/Wofford/Furman tie one another. Does strength of schedule matter? Maybe you put the Paladins second. Does overall win total matter, maybe we're fourth.

With as crazy as the rest of the country has been, 4 may not be out of the realm of possibility.

[citdog]

ETSU dropped their program back when there were only 16 teams in the field. Now there are 24 so there's more margin of error.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
That was when your Daddy was still carrying you around in his testicle satchel.

[Reign of Terrier]

I was actually at the last ETSU-Wofford game before they dropped the program

Terriers won of course

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[citdog]

I was actually at the last ETSU-Wofford game before they dropped the program

Terriers won of course

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

So you were in a stroller then. Did you throw a fit and quit???

[FUGameBreaker]

Is there anywhere I can go to find out who wins tie-breaker for autobid if Wofford-Furman-ETSU have 3 way tie for conference title with all at 6-2? Looking on the SoCon website but I can't find this infoxconfusedx

[Schism55]

Is there anywhere I can go to find out who wins tie-breaker for autobid if Wofford-Furman-ETSU have 3 way tie for conference title with all at 6-2? Looking on the SoCon website but I can't find this infoxconfusedx
http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/Championships/Tie-Breaking/Tie-breaking_Procedures_Football.pdf
This?

[furpal87]

That's what I thought random draw

[PaladinFan]

Is there anywhere I can go to find out who wins tie-breaker for autobid if Wofford-Furman-ETSU have 3 way tie for conference title with all at 6-2? Looking on the SoCon website but I can't find this infoxconfusedx

I gamed some of this out, and it gets a little wild.

Assume that Furman/ETSU/Wofford all finish 6-2. I think the only way those teams are tied for first is if Samford loses to the Citadel and beats ETSU. Furman and Wofford then win out.

In that scenario, the first tie breaker is record against tied teams. All three are 1-1 against the other two. No help.

The next tiebreaker is the record against the next highest ranked team. In this scenario, the #4 SoCon team would likely be UTC (who beat Samford). Samford would finish 5th.

What is different here than it was in 2013 is that the teams in this scenario would share the same record against the rest of the conference. They are 1-1 against each other and all lost to the same team - Samford.

The next tie breaker is "fewest points allowed among the tied teams." I have no idea if that means total SoCon points or just points in the games among those teams. Assuming it is the latter (which makes sense), the tie breaker may go to Furman.

If you talley up the points surrendered in the ETSU/Furman/Wofford contests, Furman surrendered only 46, Wofford 51, and ETSU 57.

[PaladinFan]

I also think Furman is in good shape if ETSU is the autobid.

If Samford takes another loss, they are done. That would really just leave Furman and Wofford as tied for second in the SoCon.

Wofford will have a better record against an easier schedule. Furman will technically be the SoCon's #2 team and beat the stuffing out of Wofford.

I think the committee may have an issue picking Wofford as an at-large over Furman, who had the same conference record and beat them head to head.

[FUGameBreaker]

Hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fewest points allowed tie breaker would go to Furman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! xthumbsupx

[FUGameBreaker]

Furman has given up 46

Wofford has given up 51

ETSU has given up 57

[PaladinFan]

Hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fewest points allowed tie breaker would go to Furman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! xthumbsupx

That surprised me, incidentally.

[FUGameBreaker]

That surprised me, incidentally.



Me too!

That's so incredible, next weekend is going to be lots of fun!

[ElCid]

I gamed some of this out, and it gets a little wild.

Assume that Furman/ETSU/Wofford all finish 6-2. I think the only way those teams are tied for first is if Samford loses to the Citadel and beats ETSU. Furman and Wofford then win out.

In that scenario, the first tie breaker is record against tied teams. All three are 1-1 against the other two. No help.

The next tiebreaker is the record against the next highest ranked team. In this scenario, the #4 SoCon team would likely be UTC (who beat Samford). Samford would finish 5th.

What is different here than it was in 2013 is that the teams in this scenario would share the same record against the rest of the conference. They are 1-1 against each other and all lost to the same team - Samford.

The next tie breaker is "fewest points allowed among the tied teams." I have no idea if that means total SoCon points or just points in the games among those teams. Assuming it is the latter (which makes sense), the tie breaker may go to Furman.

If you talley up the points surrendered in the ETSU/Furman/Wofford contests, Furman surrendered only 46, Wofford 51, and ETSU 57.


Just so there is no confusion as to language, here it is exactly:

NCAA Automatic Bid Tie-breaking Procedures: The Conference champion shall be awarded an automatic bid to the NCAA FCS Playoffs, provided it is eligible to compete in the post-season under NCAA guidelines. In the event that co-champions are declared, the automatic bid will be awarded as follows:


A. In the case of a two-way tie, the automatic bid will be awarded to the winner of the game between the tied teams during the regular season;


B. In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the Commissioner;


C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a three-way tie will be applied until the tie is broken.


I believe the underlined means total points in all games played, otherwise it would say "the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams in games played only among the tied teams." It doesn't say that. It says points allowed among the tied teams. Without any qualifier, that would mean all games.

And then it would be the following, to date:

Wofford 183
Furman 239
ETSU 245

Which would mean Wofford, unless WCU and Presbyterian somehow figure out Wofford's defense.

[FUGameBreaker]

Just so there is no confusion as to language, here it is exactly:

NCAA Automatic Bid Tie-breaking Procedures: The Conference champion shall be awarded an automatic bid to the NCAA FCS Playoffs, provided it is eligible to compete in the post-season under NCAA guidelines. In the event that co-champions are declared, the automatic bid will be awarded as follows:


A. In the case of a two-way tie, the automatic bid will be awarded to the winner of the game between the tied teams during the regular season;


B. In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the Commissioner;


C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a three-way tie will be applied until the tie is broken.


I believe the underlined means total points in all games played, otherwise it would say "the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams in games played only among the tied teams." It doesn't say that. It says points allowed among the tied teams. Without any qualifier, that would mean all games.

And then it would be the following, to date:

Wofford 183
Furman 239
ETSU 245

Which would mean Wofford, unless WCU and Presbyterian somehow figure out Wofford's defense.




There is no way that is what it means, think how ridiculous that would be to decide a tie between 3 teams by looking at other completely unbalanced games, that is absurd

[ElCid]

There is no way that is what it means, think how ridiculous that would be to decide a tie between 3 teams by looking at other completely unbalanced games, that is absurd

I would think so as well, but it gives no qualifier. I understand the whole FBS game thing, but it does not say "among games only between the tied teams" it says "fewest points allowed among the tied teams." Those are two different things. However, I can see it meaning only SOCON games even if it does not say it. That would actually make the most sense since it is for the conf auto bid and all other previous tie breaking rules deal only with conf games. In that case it would be the following.


To date

Furman 146
Wofford 152
ETSU 179

But with Furman having 2 games remaining and Wofford and ETSU only one, it will be tough.

[FUGameBreaker]

I would think so as well, but it gives no qualifier. I understand the whole FBS game thing, but it does not say "among games only between the tied teams" it says "fewest points allowed among the tied teams." Those are two different things. However, I can see it meaning only SOCON games even if it does not say it. That would actually make the most sense since it is for the conf auto bid and all other previous tie breaking rules deal only with conf games. In that case it would be the following.


To date

Furman 146
Wofford 152
ETSU 179

But with Furman having 2 games remaining and Wofford and ETSU only one, it will be tough.



I still think it is between the 3, that would truly be the best way to decipher by shrinking it to being between those specific teams, I mean think of all the garbage scores late in games ect. in other games, I mean keeping it down to those 3 teams is the best way to decide who did better between each other which is what the tie breaker tries to do first off. Its like a way of doing point differential to a degree to get who preformed best between the 3, its gotta dude its gotta lol

[ElCid]

I still think it is between the 3, that would truly be the best way to decipher by shirking it to being between those specific teams, I mean think of all the garbage scores late in games ect. in other games, I mean keeping it down to those 3 teams is the best way to decide who did better between each other which is what the tie breaker tries to do first off. Its like a way of doing point differential to a degree to get who preformed best between the 3, its gotta dude its gotta lol

I don't necessarily disagree but I am simply looking at the current words. Why don't we e-mail the conf office and ask. And then ask them to get someone who writes English correctly to rewrite it if they agree with your interpretation.

[FUGameBreaker]

I don't necessarily disagree but I am simply looking at the current words. Why don't we e-mail the conf office and ask. And then ask them to get someone who writes English correctly to rewrite it if they agree with your interpretation.



Lol true that

I am putting in a call to the office on Monday!

[ElCid]

Lol true that

I am putting in a call to the office on Monday!


I just sent an e-mail the Director of Championships.


Sir, quick question regarding the tie breaking rules for the Auto Bid for football.


If we get past all previous tie breaking rules to the point where it is decided upon points allowed, does that mean 1) points allowed in all games; 2) only points allowed in conference games; or 3) only points allowed among games between the tied teams?


The language in the rules posted on the site can be somewhat confusing.


In the event previous rules do not break a tie it states, “ If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered.”


I take this to mean points allowed at least in all conference games played, but it does not state specifically which games the point are to be tallied from. Or was it supposed to mean from only the games played between the teams which are tied? If the latter was the case, I would have expected the verbiage to state "the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams in games played only between the tied teams." At least something to that affect for clarification.


It is a very hot topic currently among the bulletin boards right now as we are setting up for possible three way tie.


Your clarification response would be greatly appreciated.


Thank you.

[FUGameBreaker]

I just sent an e-mail the Director of Championships.



Thanks man, appreciate it xthumbsupx

[citdog]

I don't necessarily disagree but I am simply looking at the current words. Why don't we e-mail the conf office and ask. And then ask them to get someone who writes English correctly to rewrite it if they agree with your interpretation.

So we should leave this up to some homo english major???

[PaladinFan]

The first time I read that language was in 2013 when looking at tiebreaker scenarios. It is not particularly well written and is ambiguous.

Total points allowed for the season doesn't make much sense. It's not fair to Furman that Wofford played an easier schedule. It's not fair to Wofford that Furman played one fewer game.

Total SoCon points makes more sense, but I think if that was the intention it would have just said "in conference play."

I expect the answer is total points against one another. If not, the term "among the tied teams" is just superfluous - we already know we are talking about a tiebreaker among tied teams. That is what the whole paragraph is about.

Anyway, it's a fun chaos scenario.

[woffordgrad94]

At the risk of sounding smug, I will just say that I knew the Wofford loss to Samford was going to happen. I could see it coming from a mile away. Based mainly on Samford’s previous results against us, their having two weeks to prep for us just like Furman, and the fact that we had to go to Alabama. We are just not a great football team right now, definitely not a championship contender, The Southern Conference is not all that strong right now and I’m not sure we deserving of a playoff spot with an 8-3 record just because we can beat bad teams by large margins and beat OK teams at home. The question is are we one of the top 24 teams in FBS? I’m not sure that we are right now. We will be firmly on the bubble (assuming we beat WCU and PC of course). But I know we have to accept the fact that we are who we are because OC Wade Lang isn’t likely to change, and we know he’ll never be shown the door.

[PaladinFan]

At the risk of sounding smug, I will just say that I knew the Wofford loss to Samford was going to happen. I could see it coming from a mile away. Based mainly on Samford’s previous results against us, their having two weeks to prep for us just like Furman, and the fact that we had to go to Alabama. We are just not a great football team right now, definitely not a championship contender, The Southern Conference is not all that strong right now and I’m not sure we deserving of a playoff spot with an 8-3 record just because we can beat bad teams by large margins and beat OK teams at home. The question is are we one of the top 24 teams in FBS? I’m not sure that we are right now. We will be firmly on the bubble (assuming we beat WCU and PC of course). But I know we have to accept the fact that we are who we are because OC Wade Lang isn’t likely to change, and we know he’ll never be shown the door.

I don't disagree with that.

My thoughts on Wofford going into this season is that (1) they would go as far as their defense would carry them, and (2) we may not see the "real" Wofford until later in the season when the schedule got tougher.

[woffordgrad94]

A team like Wofford or Furman might really benefit from the fact that the top MEAC team and Ivies don’t do the playoffs.

[ElCid]

The first time I read that language was in 2013 when looking at tiebreaker scenarios. It is not particularly well written and is ambiguous.

Total points allowed for the season doesn't make much sense. It's not fair to Furman that Wofford played an easier schedule. It's not fair to Wofford that Furman played one fewer game.

Total SoCon points makes more sense, but I think if that was the intention it would have just said "in conference play."

I expect the answer is total points against one another. If not, the term "among the tied teams" is just superfluous - we already know we are talking about a tiebreaker among tied teams. That is what the whole paragraph is about.

Anyway, it's a fun chaos scenario.

Hopefully I will get an answer from the Conference Office. But the way it is written, it does not say "points against in games played between the tied teams." It is poorly written to be sure.

[PaladinNation]

part of me wants Furman hungry and pissed going into next season… When Wofford got "Wofforded" it seemed to light a fire in the program - not that Ayers needed any help with that.

If Furman wins out, we salvage another season that started horrible, faced adversity, got a ton of players PT and possibly another number on the fieldhouse. If we get a playoff spot - great. BUT, then if we don't get a spot, the coaches and players can put that chip on their shoulder for the entire off-season and that will help focus a young team.

[FUGameBreaker]

The first time I read that language was in 2013 when looking at tiebreaker scenarios. It is not particularly well written and is ambiguous.

Total points allowed for the season doesn't make much sense. It's not fair to Furman that Wofford played an easier schedule. It's not fair to Wofford that Furman played one fewer game.

Total SoCon points makes more sense, but I think if that was the intention it would have just said "in conference play."

I expect the answer is total points against one another. If not, the term "among the tied teams" is just superfluous - we already know we are talking about a tiebreaker among tied teams. That is what the whole paragraph is about.

Anyway, it's a fun chaos scenario.



That's what I was thinking as well, but also hoping lol, so........... xsmiley_wix

[FUGameBreaker]

part of me wants Furman hungry and pissed going into next season… When Wofford got "Wofforded" it seemed to light a fire in the program - not that Ayers needed any help with that.

If Furman wins out, we salvage another season that started horrible, faced adversity, got a ton of players PT and possibly another number on the fieldhouse. If we get a playoff spot - great. BUT, then if we don't get a spot, the coaches and players can put that chip on their shoulder for the entire off-season and that will help focus a young team.



That is the beauty of it for sure, just win and let the chips fall where they may, either way 2 more wins and this season is a positive xthumbsupx

[ElCid]

OK gang, here is the answer from the SOCON Office. Sent by e-mail to me by Mr. Stanley Broaden, Director of Championships.

"The tie breaking criteria would be the fewest points allowed in conference games."

I think that answers it pretty well. If ETSU, Wofford and Furman all tie and it gets to points, it is points allowed in all SOCON games. Nice to know for the future even if this does not come to pass this year.

[ElCid]

So if it comes down to points we sit at

Furman - 146 with VMI and Mercer to go
Wofford - 152 with WCU to go
ETSU - 179 with Samford to go

Clearly Wofford has the leg up even behind by 6 with only one game to go. Furman needs to basically pitch two shutouts. ETSU would be pretty much out of it unless they not only pitch a shutout, but hope Wofford and Furman both screw the pooch.

[FUGameBreaker]

So if it comes down to points we sit at

Furman - 146 with VMI and Mercer to go
Wofford - 152 with WCU to go
ETSU - 179 with Samford to go

Clearly Wofford has the leg up even behind by 6 with only one game to go. Furman needs to basically pitch two shutouts. ETSU would be pretty much out of it unless they not only pitch a shutout, but hope Wofford and Furman both screw the pooch.




First off thank you for getting the answer to this cleared up, much appreciated!

So I think Furman can have a good shot at this one if we can hold VMI down this weekend (very possible) and Mr. Adams puts on a show in the 'Whee this weekend (also possible), does not mean WCU has to win but just get some offense going

That would set up the Dins for a shot at this thing

- - - Updated - - -

Also will the Mercer walk on QB still be starting for them in 2 weeks will be a big question as well

[FUGameBreaker]

Moved my post to the other thread as makes more since to discuss in the main SoCon thread

[apaladin]

So if it comes down to points we sit at

Furman - 146 with VMI and Mercer to go
Wofford - 152 with WCU to go
ETSU - 179 with Samford to go

Clearly Wofford has the leg up even behind by 6 with only one game to go. Furman needs to basically pitch two shutouts. ETSU would be pretty much out of it unless they not only pitch a shutout, but hope Wofford and Furman both screw the pooch.


It is what it is but makes no sense. You are comparing the 3 teams head to head so why shouldn't the points be head to head? Team A has a big lead and lets team B score points late but this rule discourages fair play(sportsmanship) and forces Team A to keep the hammer down and beat team B as bad as possible. Between the 3 teams FU is way ahead. FWIW when FU blew that 21 point lead at ETSU I said at the time that would come back to haunt them and it has. Take away that meltdown and FU is in the drivers seat instead of being a very, very long shot. Take away Harris Roberts getting hurt early against Samford and FU probably wins that game. Things have not gone FU's way to say the least. There is a 1,000 to 1 chance FU makes the playoffs but like Jim Carey said in that movie. So you're saying there IS a chance. xnodx

[PaladinFan]

It is what it is but makes no sense. You are comparing the 3 teams head to head so why shouldn't the points be head to head? Team A has a big lead and lets team B score points late but this rule discourages fair play(sportsmanship) and forces Team A to keep the hammer down and beat team B as bad as possible. Between the 3 teams FU is way ahead. FWIW when FU blew that 21 point lead at ETSU I said at the time that would come back to haunt them and it has. Take away that meltdown and FU is in the drivers seat instead of being a very, very long shot. Take away Harris Roberts getting hurt early against Samford and FU probably wins that game. Things have not gone FU's way to say the least. There is a 1,000 to 1 chance FU makes the playoffs but like Jim Carey said in that movie. So you're saying there IS a chance. xnodx

I really don't think Furman's playoffs odds are as slim as others seem to.

No, six win teams don't often make it. Furman can't do anything about playing 10 games. They will be right in the conversation with most of the other 4 loss teams (of which there look to be plenty).

Road wins the next two weeks over VMI and Mercer would put us back in the top 25 in most polls. A 4 loss top 25 team has better than 1000:1 odds at a post season berth.

[ElCid]

I really don't think Furman's playoffs odds are as slim as others seem to.

No, six win teams don't often make it. Furman can't do anything about playing 10 games. They will be right in the conversation with most of the other 4 loss teams (of which there look to be plenty).

Road wins the next two weeks over VMI and Mercer would put us back in the top 25 in most polls. A 4 loss top 25 team has better than 1000:1 odds at a post season berth.


Wishful thinking my man. If the Elon game was a close maybe, but the blowout looks very bad. Everything else is ok, not great, not bad. It will depend, as FuBear pointed out on the rest of the field. But Furman will most likely be watching from home. You all blew it against ETSU. That was the straw that broke your back in a 10 game season. At 7-3 you might have been in. At 6-4, sans the auto, no.

[FUGameBreaker]

Wishful thinking my man. If the Elon game was a close maybe, but the blowout looks very bad. Everything else is ok, not great, not bad. It will depend, as FuBear pointed out on the rest of the field. But Furman will most likely be watching from home. You all blew it against ETSU. That was the straw that broke your back in a 10 game season. At 7-3 you might have been in. At 6-4, sans the auto, no.



No so fast my friend, looking at the AGS poll with FU at #30 (plus San Diego behind as AQ)(minus the ivy schools) there are a lot of other teams in the 11-29 range that will be losing over the next 2 weeks with tough games, that's gonna put us right in the thick of the conversation if we win out xthumbsupx

[PaladinFan]

Wishful thinking my man. If the Elon game was a close maybe, but the blowout looks very bad. Everything else is ok, not great, not bad. It will depend, as FuBear pointed out on the rest of the field. But Furman will most likely be watching from home. You all blew it against ETSU. That was the straw that broke your back in a 10 game season. At 7-3 you might have been in. At 6-4, sans the auto, no.

I'm not saying it's a lock, I'm just saying it isn't remote.

Four loss teams get in all the time. Furman just doesn't have the luxury of the 7th win.

There's a lot that has to break right nationally. That happened last year too. Other bubble teams need to lose. If those things happen, and Furman wins convincingly at VMI and Mercer, then I think they'll resume will be as strong as they can make it.

I'm less concerned with the Elon loss. We started a freshman QB, on the road, against what has turned out to probably be the best team in the CAA. The ETSU loss is the one that haunts us.

[ElCid]

I'm not saying it's a lock, I'm just saying it isn't remote.

Four loss teams get in all the time. Furman just doesn't have the luxury of the 7th win.

There's a lot that has to break right nationally. That happened last year too. Other bubble teams need to lose. If those things happen, and Furman wins convincingly at VMI and Mercer, then I think they'll resume will be as strong as they can make it.

I'm less concerned with the Elon loss. We started a freshman QB, on the road, against what has turned out to probably be the best team in the CAA. The ETSU loss is the one that haunts us.

You seriously think the committee will know or care? No. They will see the score. And I am pretty sure they are not the best CAA team. Delaware has as good of a resume and a victory over Elon to boot.

But yes of course it is possible if the big bubble teams out there end up at 6-5.

[FUGameBreaker]

You seriously think the committee will know or care? No. They will see the score. And I am pretty sure they are not the best CAA team. Delaware has as good of a resume and a victory over Elon to boot.

But yes of course it is possible if the big bubble teams out there end up at 6-5.



Another factor to consider, Paladins will have won 6 of 7 games down the stretch, there will be other 4 loss teams but some may have stumbled down the stretch

It has been shown over the last few years the committee puts legit stock in who is currently playing good down the stretch, that can help us

[gofurman]

Another factor to consider, Paladins will have won 6 of 7 games down the stretch, there will be other 4 loss teams but some may have stumbled down the stretch

It has been shown over the last few years the committee puts legit stock in who is currently playing good down the stretch, that can help us

right, somehow this doesn't come up on AGS much but the committee has said they put stock in this and is part of the reason I think Furman got in last year.. we lost our first 3 and won 7 of our last 8. Same this year minus Colgate... lost our first 3, won 6 of our last 7.

I don't think Furman makes the playoffs.. and personally would prefer we win the SoCon.. which only requires us to win out and Samford to beat ETSU. Then we are Socon champs 2018 (co-champs yes) and that goes on the fieldhouse as yet another SoCon champ year and all the players get rings !

Though I am sure Mercer will have EVERY player back just for our game.. that game scares the junk out of me !

but let's get by VMI first - they may be 0-8 but when AT HOME...
ask Citadel (2 point win) or ETSU (3 point win) or Mercer (10 point win).. none of these are easy wins.. AT ALL

AT VMI they are just so close to winning.. and they finally won one last week (yes, D2 I think) - but now they know they can win

Heck, I think VMI led Chattanooga (who is a decent SoCon team) for most of the game before Chatt finally won by 7 !

I give VMI credit - they are much better than I thought.. I thought they would lose most games by 20+ this year. They have been close in most every game

[PaladinFan]

You seriously think the committee will know or care? No. They will see the score. And I am pretty sure they are not the best CAA team. Delaware has as good of a resume and a victory over Elon to boot.

But yes of course it is possible if the big bubble teams out there end up at 6-5.

They won't. Most of the teams on the bubble will have a "bad loss" somewhere. Furman's "bad loss" is a tough afternoon against a top 10 team on the road.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the socon is good and in a universe where Furman played Colgate, would have 4 playoff spots this year.

But that's probably not happening. I think the top 4 are playoff worthy, and Chattanooga bubble worthy, but the conference as a whole is a year away and that includes Wofford.

The best case scenario is that all 3 teams win their first round game (assuming we get 3 in). From there, I find it unlikely that any get past the quarterfinals.

If you look at the level of play, the conference as a whole is much better than it was in 2015, when current seniors were freshmen.

Not to take away from the Citadel and Chattanooga those years, but the conference is just better with Samford, Wofford, and Furman playing at a high level. ETSU was just getting back to football and Mercer was in start up status.

Even though the Socon got more in the playoffs in 2016, I think the overall level of play is better this year. Samford and Wofford will finish with identical records as then, but I think they're both better. Furman, ETSU, and Mercer are better. The Citadel obviously isn't as good, but they aren't terrible either. Chattanooga is almost back to that level. Western is about the same.

[Professor Chaos]

Another consideration that needs to be made in the "Furman to the playoffs at 6-4" scenario is what happens to Elon. Elon closes out with two very tough games vs Towson and at Maine. There's a decent chance they lose both and if that happens they'd also be at 6-4 but they'd have a dominating win over Furman. So not only would that weaken one of Furman's "good losses" it would further saturate the bubble with a team that Furman has little to no argument being in over.

[SU DOG]

I have watched lots of teams around the country via video streaming, and I'm convinced that the SoCon is not as bad as some think. This is an opinion from the eye test of course, but still that can be an objective criteria. No, we don't have a NDSU type team, but our best teams, IMO, can hold their own with those from many other FCS conferences. I agree with YT that we have lots of youth in the SoCon this year. Defensively, my own Bulldogs are also pretty young, but granted we might lose a player or two on offense that will be missed next year.xlolx

[FUGameBreaker]

Another consideration that needs to be made in the "Furman to the playoffs at 6-4" scenario is what happens to Elon. Elon closes out with two very tough games vs Towson and at Maine. There's a decent chance they lose both and if that happens they'd also be at 6-4 but they'd have a dominating win over Furman. So not only would that weaken one of Furman's "good losses" it would further saturate the bubble with a team that Furman has little to no argument being in over.


Correct, hopefully the Elon backups step up and get some W's xthumbsupx

[PaladinFan]

I have watched lots of teams around the country via video streaming, and I'm convinced that the SoCon is not as bad as some think. This is an opinion from the eye test of course, but still that can be an objective criteria. No, we don't have a NDSU type team, but our best teams, IMO, can hold their own with those from many other FCS conferences. I agree with YT that we have lots of youth in the SoCon this year. Defensively, my own Bulldogs are also pretty young, but granted we might lose a player or two on offense that will be missed next year.xlolx

I am in agreement with that. I think we sort of get clouded by NDSU, but I think the SoCon's teams are every bit as good as most of the "everyone elses" in most of the conferences.

Furman had a bad day against Elon. We played them to a draw twice last year and beat them at their place in the post-season. I don't think they got 40 points better than us in six months.

[ElCid]

I am in agreement with that. I think we sort of get clouded by NDSU, but I think the SoCon's teams are every bit as good as most of the "everyone elses" in most of the conferences.

Furman had a bad day against Elon. We played them to a draw twice last year and beat them at their place in the post-season. I don't think they got 40 points better than us in six months.

Or did you get 40 points worse?

[PaladinFan]

Or did you get 40 points worse?

Nah. I can explain the Elon game. Furman had a young untested team go on the road against a top 10 FCS team early in the year, had some things go badly early, and the wheels came off.

[ElCid]

Nah. I can explain the Elon game. Furman had a young untested team go on the road against a top 10 FCS team early in the year, had some things go badly early, and the wheels came off.

So what you are saying is that team can be good and just have a bad game that gets a away from them?

[PaladinFan]

So what you are saying is that team can be good and just have a bad game that gets a away from them?

I think happens to most everyone.

Fortunately for Furman, the game that got away was against one of the top teams in the country, not Kumquat State.

[FUGameBreaker]

I think happens to most everyone.

Fortunately for Furman, the game that got away was against one of the top teams in the country, not Kumquat State.



Lol Kumquat St., Nice xlolx You win the internet today man

[FUBeAR]

Nah. I can explain the Elon game. Furman had a young untested team go on the road against a top 10 FCS team early in the year, had some things go badly early, and the wheels came off.
Hmmmm - Is this the new forgiving, understanding Paladin Fan posting? It will be truly heartwarming to see you extend such leniency and latitude to all Teams upon which you comment.

I said it after the Elon game & I imagine FU’s Coaches told the Players, essentially, the same thing...

We went up there, had a bad break or 2, felt sorry for ourselves, and then ALLOWED another Team to punk us for the rest of the game...on both sides of the ball.

Never happened before with a Hendrix Coached Furman Team & hasn’t happened since. I expect it won’t.

[PaladinFan]

Hmmmm - Is this the new forgiving, understanding Paladin Fan posting? It will be truly heartwarming to see you extend such leniency and latitude to all Teams upon which you comment.

I said it after the Elon game & I imagine FU’s Coaches told the Players, essentially, the same thing...

We went up there, had a bad break or 2, felt sorry for ourselves, and then ALLOWED another Team to punk us for the rest of the game...on both sides of the ball.

Never happened before with a Hendrix Coached Furman Team & hasn’t happened since. I expect it won’t.

I think those are the sort of things you sometimes see with a young team.

A similar situation happened in the two Elon games last year. Turnovers lead to early points for Elon. In those games, with a more experienced group, Furman fought back. This year's team folded.

Hopefully we learn from that and don't do it again.