Big Sky Predictions 10-27

[JALMOND]

47-17 for the year, looking to improve. Tough weekend to pick this week as there are some evenly matched games, at least on paper. Still trying to get at least one perfect week but time is running out. Here are my picks in the Big Sky this weekend.

CP at NAU---Who's quarterbacking for the Lumberjacks? Does it really matter? Mustangs seem to be getting blown out of everything this season...NAU 24, CP 17

UI at EWU---Vandals have been on a bit of a hot streak lately and playing Montana State to within a point should give them hope. They will need a bunch at the Eagles...EWU 35, UI 28.

MSU at ISU---Bengals hoping to get back to winning after two close losses on the road. The Bobcats had a tough loss on the road at Weber and this isn't much better...ISU 35, MSU 24.

UNC at SUU---Bears broke through and finally got a win at home last week. The Thunderbirds return home after losing a tough one last week. Both need a win but only one can...SUU 21, UNC 17.

PSU at SAC---The Vikings were riding high heading into their off week that they may have wanted to keep playing. The Hornets, however, may be hoping for a do-over this season...PSU 28, SAC 21.

UCD at UM---The Grizzlies home mystique will no doubt be testing this weekend as the impressive Aggies are coming to town. Could it be an upset in the making? Maybe not...UCD 31, UM 29.

WDU at North Dakota---The Wildcats woke up and took care of their home business last weekend and now hit the road to face the Hawks who are back to being formidable. This will be good...WSU 21, North Dakota 19.

[mvemjsunpx]

Montana St. 24-37 Idaho St. — Which coach will bail from the sinking Bobcat ship after this one?

NoCo 34-31 Suutah — The Bears have been way more competitive with Keaton Mott at QB

Davis 38-30 Montana — The Griz will play better coming off the bye, but it won't be enough

Weber 13-24 NoDak — Weber's complete lack of offense will have to bite them at some point, right?

Idaho 13-35 EWU — Sounds like Gubrud is back, so no chance for the Vandals

Cal Poly 31-35 NAU — Sounds like Cookus is out (for the season, possibly), but Cal Poly's D is still garbage

Portland St. 27-31 Sac — Sounds like Thomson is… I have no idea, so I'll just take Sac 'cause they're at home

[bonarae]

Idaho State
Northern Colorado
UC Davis
North Dakota
EWU
NAU
Portland State (granted, this is a toss-up)

[wapiti]

CP 24 at NAU 17---NAU has some good wins, but also some BAD losses. Which NAU team is going to show up? CP has been showing improvement throughout the season and this one could be close. CP's running game could dominant this game.

UI 28 at EWU 42---With Gubrud back and the game in Cheney, EWU should win this one easily

MSU 17 at ISU 48---Before the season started many would have picked MSU for the W, but not now. ISU may expose MSU's defense and we already know how awful the MSU offense is. Will MSU's change at OC make much difference for this game?

UNC 28 at SUU 31---UNC has had several 'oh so close losses this season'. they finally broke through against NAU. UNC is much better than their record indicates, but this game is at SUU. I see this as a 50-50 game. It could go either way. I go with home field advantage.

PSU 28 at SAC 31---The Sac season at making the playoffs has sunk. PSU has shown much improvement over last year and over the course of the season. This is another 50-50 game. So I go with home field advantage again.

UCD 38 at UM 24---The griz have had two bad losses in a row. UCD is having a fantastic season.

WSU 17 at North Dakota 24---UND seems to be flying under the radar and they keep piling up wins. I think WSU is a bit overrated (Not a top 10 team, but they are a top 25) UND takes the W at home.

[Silenoz]

MSU 17 at ISU 48---Before the season started many would have picked MSU for the W, but not now. ISU may expose

UCD 38 at UM 24---The griz have had two bad losses in a row. UCD is having a fantastic season.

This may be the saddest Cat Griz in a long, long time

[MSUBobcat]

This may be the saddest Cat Griz in a long, long time

The "winner" of Cat-Griz this year gets no bragging rights. Both teams are terrible.

[mvemjsunpx]

This may be the saddest Cat Griz in a long, long time

True. Since the game moved to the end of the season in 1993, every single meeting has had serious playoff implications for at least one of the two teams. I doubt that'll be the case this time.

[kalm]

True. Since the game moved to the end of the season in 1993, every single meeting has had serious playoff implications for at least one of the two teams. I doubt that'll be the case this time.

Looking at remaining schedules , WIU, UNI, UM, and MSU have a good chance of finishimg 6-5 or 7-4. The former 2 have the 1 and 2 SOS in Massey by virtue of FBS games and having played NDSU and either SDSU or ISUr. The bubble looks soft and they are virtual locks at 7-4 but they both lost to a Montana. It’s not unlikely that both Montana’s enter the brawl with 6-4 records and even a chance at 7-3. At least one will come out 7-4 with a pair of quality wins, likely including a win against a playoff team. The committee values H2H. They may be on the bubble but I’m guessing there will be playoff implications for at least one if not both.

[mvemjsunpx]

Looking at remaining schedules , WIU, UNI, UM, and MSU have a good chance of finishimg 6-5 or 7-4. The former 2 have the 1 and 2 SOS in Massey by virtue of FBS games and having played NDSU and either SDSU or ISUr. The bubble looks soft and they are virtual locks at 7-4 but they both lost to a Montana. It’s not unlikely that both Montana’s enter the brawl with 6-4 records and even a chance at 7-3. At least one will come out 7-4 with a pair of quality wins, likely including a win against a playoff team. The committee values H2H. They may be on the bubble but I’m guessing there will be playoff implications for at least one if not both.

I don't even think the Griz will be on the bubble at 7-4. No FBS games, 2 bad losses (so far), and a relatively weak conference schedule (don't play EWU, NAU, ISU, Weber). The UNI win likely won't save that, especially if they fall to WIU this week.

MSU's case would be a little better, but their ceiling seems so low because of their "quarterback" situation. They also haven't beaten anyone with a pulse since Week 1. Getting CP & UNC at home is helpful, but I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped one of those.

[kalm]

I don't even think the Griz will be on the bubble at 7-4. No FBS games, 2 bad losses (so far), and a very weak conference schedule (don't play EWU, NAU, ISU, Weber). The UNI win likely won't save that, especially if they fall to WIU this week.

MSU's case would be a little better, but their ceiling seems so low because of their "quarterback" situation—they haven't beaten anyone with a pulse since Week 1. Getting CP & UNC at home is helpful, but I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped one of those.

According to the committee chair last year, FBS losses don't hurt. FBS wins and close losses only help. An all DI schedule is of higher value to them, I think. I'm not saying either would be in but there would be playoff implications. While we're dreaming what if SDSU picks up two more losses, UNI finishes 7-4 and the Griz beat the Cats to go 7-4? The Griz would have at least an equal resume to both Valley teams plus the H2H win against the Panthers.

This is why the Big Sky-MVFC challenge is so great. It can create quite a bit of intrigue for the post season selections.

[MSUBobcat]

I don't even think the Griz will be on the bubble at 7-4. No FBS games, 2 bad losses (so far), and a relatively weak conference schedule (don't play EWU, NAU, ISU, Weber). The UNI win likely won't save that, especially if they fall to WIU this week.

MSU's case would be a little better, but their ceiling seems so low because of their "quarterback" situation. They also haven't beaten anyone with a pulse since Week 1. Getting CP & UNC at home is helpful, but I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped one of those.

I agree with this assessment. Obviously, it depends on what other bubble teams do between now and then, but if the Cats and Griz don't take care of business this weekend, even winning the next 2 weeks won't be enough to put them on the bubble for Cat-Griz. Both of their best wins would be from WEEK ONE at home, with serious regression from that point. The Cats W isn't as good, but they also don't have the bad PSU loss and lost to teams they were expected to lose to. The Griz W over UNI is looking better and better, but then the WIU is looking worse and worse. I think you throw out the early season 3pt W at home and with the rest of their schedule... nope.

This weekend is make or break for both teams, IMO. If one or both win THIS week, entered Cat-Griz at 7-3 and LOST to finish 7-4, I could possibly see that team getting in (especially if the Griz were to beat Davis but lose to MSU) due to having a solid W in the last 4 games and it being a rivalry game that can somewhat offset the loss xtwocentsx.

[Roamingriz]

Cal Poly v NAU - Really hard to tell with the ups and downs of both. NAU should win, but they also "should" have won last week. One last time I'm picking NAU.... Poly 25 NAU 28

Idaho v Ewash - Idaho is coming together somewhat but don't really have the firepower in any case to match up with a pretty decent defense and a usually great offense of EWU. UI 14 EWU 38

Montana St. v Idaho St. - The bobcats have a shot with their defense if they can get to the qb. Easier said than done but Andersen should also be more successful running on the Bengals than Weber. I think it will end close. MSU 32 ISU 35

UNCO v SUU - I think the bears are ready for their step forward. They are tougher than their record suggests. However I don't think SUU really is. UNCo 36 SUU 24

PSU v Sac St - I'm also betting based on how they've looked the last few weeks that the Vikings are finding their form. Sac St has skill players but look a mess with even messier results. PSU 30 Sac 21

Davis v Montana - No turnovers to have a chance for the Griz. And even then they haven't shown any moxy of late to convince me they could keep up with Davis, who will be a big ask of the Griz D. Could they at home? Sure. Will they? I hope so but probably not. UCD 42 UM 28

Weber St v UND - A couple teams with particular strengths. I was surprised with the short fields Weber gave MSU last week. Not a believer in the Weber O still. I'm picking UND to get it done at home winning the pecial teams field position battle. They have a full head of steam and a stable of horses. WSU 24 UND 28

[mvemjsunpx]

According to the committee chair last year, FBS losses don't hurt. FBS wins and close losses only help.

I'm not sure what your point is here. I'm saying the lack of an FBS game makes UM's schedule weaker—they'd be 7-4 against FCS instead of 7-3.


While we're dreaming what if SDSU picks up two more losses, UNI finishes 7-4 and the Griz beat the Cats to go 7-4? The Griz would have at least an equal resume to both Valley teams plus the H2H win against the Panthers.

Oh, come on, the resumes wouldn't be at all equal. The MVFC teams would have noticeably better strength of schedules than UM would (especially UNI). You can take the Sagarins with a grain of salt, of course, but Montana is currently last in the Big Sky in SoS. UNI, who leads all of FCS in SoS, ranks 67 spots higher than the Griz in that metric. Even SDSU, who is next-to-last in the MVFC in SoS, ranks 19 spots above UM.

[veinup]

NAU
EWU
ISU
NOCO
Sac
Davis
UND

[kalm]

I'm not sure what your point is here. I'm saying the lack of an FBS game makes UM's schedule weaker—they'd be 7-4 against FCS instead of 7-3.



Oh, come on, the resumes wouldn't be at all equal. The MVFC teams would have noticeably better strength of schedules than UM would (especially UNI). You can take the Sagarins with a grain of salt, of course, but Montana is currently last in the Big Sky in SoS. UNI, who leads all of FCS in SoS, ranks 67 spots higher than the Griz in that metric. Even SDSU, who is next-to-last in the MVFC in SoS, ranks 19 spots above UM.

My point with the first line is simply that not having an FBS game doesn't hurt you.

Regarding the 2nd paragraph, I acknowledged earlier, the SoS disparity. But you're right, I should have said quality wins would be similar vs. resume. Then again, that's already addressed with SoS. If SDSU loses to ISU this week, their best win will more than likely be against Montana State as the Jacks finish with Missouri State (who finishes with SDSU, NDSU, and UNI), SIU, and USD. In other words, they'd have one marginal quality win on their resume and beat no one else with winning record. If Montana loses to Davis but finishes 7-4 they'd also have a win against MSU plus a win against UNI.

BTW, UNI is in a similar situation with the remainder of their schedule...and they lost to Montana.

It's also interesting if Montana beats Davis but loses to MSU.

Do quality wins trump SoS? I don't know in this instance but there would still be playoff implications which was my original point.

If you truly think SoS trumps all take a look at the last four in from the 2017 at larges then take a look at EWU's SoS who wasn't even on of the first four out.

[mvemjsunpx]

My point with the first line is simply that not having an FBS game doesn't hurt you.

Regarding the 2nd paragraph, I acknowledged earlier, the SoS disparity. But you're right, I should have said quality wins would be similar vs. resume. Then again, that's already addressed with SoS. If SDSU loses to ISU this week, their best win will more than likely be against Montana State as the Jacks finish with Missouri State (who finishes with SDSU, NDSU, and UNI), SIU, and USD. In other words, they'd have one marginal quality win on their resume and beat no one else with winning record. If Montana loses to Davis but finishes 7-4 they'd also have a win against MSU plus a win against UNI.

BTW, UNI is in a similar situation with the remainder of their schedule...and they lost to Montana.

It's also interesting if Montana beats Davis but loses to MSU.

Do quality wins trump SoS? I don't know in this instance but there would still be playoff implications which was my original point.

If you truly think SoS trumps all take a look at the last four in from the 2017 at larges then take a look at EWU's SoS who wasn't even on of the first four out.

I think you're touching on a greater point: the committee's criteria is not consistent from year-to-year. Some years it's mostly about quality wins, some years it's about avoiding bad losses, some years H2H matters more than others, etc.

[JALMOND]

47-17 for the year, looking to improve. Tough weekend to pick this week as there are some evenly matched games, at least on paper. Still trying to get at least one perfect week but time is running out. Here are my picks in the Big Sky this weekend.

CP at NAU---Who's quarterbacking for the Lumberjacks? Does it really matter? Mustangs seem to be getting blown out of everything this season...NAU 24, CP 17

UI at EWU---Vandals have been on a bit of a hot streak lately and playing Montana State to within a point should give them hope. They will need a bunch at the Eagles...EWU 35, UI 28.

MSU at ISU---Bengals hoping to get back to winning after two close losses on the road. The Bobcats had a tough loss on the road at Weber and this isn't much better...ISU 35, MSU 24.

UNC at SUU---Bears broke through and finally got a win at home last week. The Thunderbirds return home after losing a tough one last week. Both need a win but only one can...SUU 21, UNC 17.

PSU at SAC---The Vikings were riding high heading into their off week that they may have wanted to keep playing. The Hornets, however, may be hoping for a do-over this season...PSU 28, SAC 21.

UCD at UM---The Grizzlies home mystique will no doubt be testing this weekend as the impressive Aggies are coming to town. Could it be an upset in the making? Maybe not...UCD 31, UM 29.

WDU at North Dakota---The Wildcats woke up and took care of their home business last weekend and now hit the road to face the Hawks who are back to being formidable. This will be good...WSU 21, North Dakota 19.

5-2 this week, nice. 52-19 overall.