2018-10/27 AGS GOTW Week 9

[Preferred Walk-On]

Weber State @ North Dakota - Both Weber State and North Dakota appear to have found themselves a bit and have played well the past two games. Weber State looks to continue pursuing the Big Sky championship (and will have to have some help, since they do not play UC-Davis), and North Dakota looks to continue their quest for the FCS playoffs (a win over Weber State would help that cause).

South Dakota State @ Illinois State - Both coming off of losses to two tough MVFC teams (Northern Iowa and North Dakota State) and looking to rebound.

Mercer @ Wofford - Southern Conference appears wide open at this point. Wofford could take a one game lead in the conference (this includes the tiebreaker H2H win over East Tennessee State), while Mercer could be tied for the conference lead (with a one game lead over Wofford and a H2H remaining with East Tennessee State) after this game.

Towson @ Delaware - The Fightin' Blue Hens are back, and the Tigers are the real deal. With no James Madison in sight (i.e., on the schedule), a Delaware win could go a long way in their CAA title chase, as the Blue Hens would own the tiebreaker with Elon and Towson with Stony Brook H2H in week 10. Towson potentially has arguably the most difficult remaining schedule of the CAA teams, so a win over Delaware is a must for CAA title aspirations.

Stony Brook @ James Madison - This is Thunderdome..."Two men enter, one man leaves." The loser is likely out of CAA title contention.

Incarnate Word @ Nicholls - Incarnate Word is 4-1 in Southland conference play and handled league leader McNeese State last week. Nicholls is trying to avoid a loss that would likely eliminate them from conference championship contention and could hurt their FCS playoff chances (as their biggest wins are Sam Houston State and Lamar, both back in Sept).

Central Arkansas @ McNeese State - Battle of the Southland leaders with opposite trajectories at the moment (if you can call one game a trajectory, which in this case I will).

[Reign of Terrier]

I voted Towson/Delaware because I think we learn the most with that game.

[BisonBacker]

I voted SDSU /ISURED this has playoff implications as the team that loses maybe sitting out come playoff time.

[dewey]

I voted for Towson vs Delaware as I want to see how good Towson is and I think Delaware is a decent measuring stick.

Dewey

[TheKingpin28]

There is not 1 bad match-up on this slate, but those WSU vs UND, SDSU vs ISUr, and SBU vs JMU games stand out from this group IMO. With UND being a non-P5 team (Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, SoCon, Southland) for the next two years, they need all the marquee wins they can get for a spot in the 24 as I feel like committee will punish a team for being an independent more than if they were part of a "conference standing". (I know the games count as conference games).

[BEAR]

I voted obviously for UCA/McNeese. It's for the conference lead with 4 games left.

UCA's losses are to an regional FBS and an OT to SHSU where we lost our 2 starting QBS. Good news our third string QB is not only comfortable playing but he's had 2 games where he threw for 5 TDS. Thath means the pass game is alive. The run game is coming along and the run defense is fun to watch holding the last 2 opponents to 12 yards COMBINED running. (SFA had -20 and NWST had 32). UCA fans are more secure in their team after a losing their 2 QBs and the team chemistry is getting so much better.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I voted for Towson vs Delaware as I want to see how good Towson is and I think Delaware is a decent measuring stick.

Dewey

I think Delaware is a good measuring stick now. If this were earlier this year, I would have been a bit more skeptical.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I voted obviously for UCA/McNeese. It's for the conference lead with 4 games left.

UCA's losses are to an regional FBS and an OT to SHSU where we lost our 2 starting QBS. Good news our third string QB is not only comfortable playing but he's had 2 games where he threw for 5 TDS. Thath means the pass game is alive. The run game is coming along and the run defense is fun to watch holding the last 2 opponents to 12 yards COMBINED running. (SFA had -20 and NWST had 32). UCA fans are more secure in their team after a losing their 2 QBs and the team chemistry is getting so much better.

I think that if UCA can continue this, it is a heck of a story. Plus I love that field. xthumbsupx

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Too bad the game is at McNeese.

[BlueGoldAg]

I voted "other" and like UC Davis @ Montana for a couple of reasons.

First, the Aggies have never beaten the Griz in 7 tries and some FCS fans think the Griz are better than their 4-3 record and are actually just a few mistakes away from being 6-1.

Secondly, the Griz are playing for their playoff lives in this one. If they win out, I think they have a good chance to make the playoffs...maybe even if they go 3-1 the rest of the way depending upon what happens to the other top teams in the Big Sky and the FCS. There's a lot of football left to play.

Third, the game is being played in Missoula with the season pretty much on the line for the Griz. Washington-Griz Stadium will be packed, loud and rocking; it is one of the toughest places to play in all of the FCS and Griz fans will be out in force for this game. The Aggies have not yet played in such a tough environment this season.

So, with so much on the line for both teams, I think this is one of the big games in the FCS this week.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I voted for UC Davis @ Montana for a couple of reasons.

First, the Aggies have never beaten the Griz in 7 tries and some FCS fans think the Griz are better than their 4-3 record and are actually just a few mistakes away from being 6-1.

Secondly, the Griz are playing for their playoff lives in this one. If they win out, I think they have a good chance to make the playoffs...maybe even if they go 2-2 the rest of the way depending upon what happens to the other top teams in the Big Sky and the FCS. There's a lot of football left to play.

Third, the game is being played in Missoula with the season pretty much on the line for the Griz. Washington-Griz Stadium will be packed, loud and rocking; it is one of the toughest places to play in all of the FCS and Griz fans will be out in force for this game. The Aggies have not yet played in such a tough environment this season.

So, with so much on the line for both teams, I think this is one of the big games in the FCS this week.

Thanks for pointing that one out. Agree with everything you said.

[grizband]

I selected North Dakota vs Weber State: this technically counts as a conference game for Weber State, so a win keeps their conference titles hopes alive. North Dakota would relish the victory over a quality opponent, since an at-large berth is their only hope for the playoffs.

[Professor Chaos]

I voted SDSU /ISURED this has playoff implications as the team that loses maybe sitting out come playoff time.
Yep, it's probably the MVFC bias in me but the loser of that game is in real trouble when it looked as recently as a week ago that both could be national title contenders.

[grizband]

Yep, it's probably the MVFC bias in me but the loser of that game is in real trouble when it looked as recently as a week ago that both could be national title contenders.
I agree that the loser of this game is in real trouble for playoff consideration.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Yep, it's probably the MVFC bias in me but the loser of that game is in real trouble when it looked as recently as a week ago that both could be national title contenders.


I agree that the loser of this game is in real trouble for playoff consideration.

I am not so sure. Let's assume NDSU and UNI win out (that's two MVFC teams in the playoffs)

If SDSU beats ISUr, and ISUr loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 8-2
ISUr: 7-4 (with only losses to NDSU, UNI, SDSU, and Missouri State, but with Colorado State FBS win)

This is only four MVFC teams in the playoffs, all with 7 DI wins.

If ISUr beats SDSU, even if ISUr then loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 7-3 (with losses to NDSU, UNI, and ISUr)
ISUr: 8-3

Both still have 7 DI wins, and their losses are only to MVFC teams above them.

Not to pick on Montana, but I saw on here that people still think they have a chance if they lose to UC-Davis then run the table (7-4). No offense intended, but Portland State, Western Illinois, and the manner in which they lost to UND do not seem as good in my mind as losing to the top 3 MVFC teams. It is not like Montana will have lost to the top 3 Big Sky teams, and it might also require the Big Sky getting 5 teams into the playoffs (UC-Davis, EWU, Weber State, Idaho State).

Please tell me what I am missing.

[Prime Power]

I am not so sure. Let's assume NDSU and UNI win out (that's two MVFC teams in the playoffs)

If SDSU beats ISUr, and ISUr loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 8-2
ISUr: 7-4 (with only losses to NDSU, UNI, SDSU, and Missouri State, but with Colorado State FBS win)

This is only four MVFC teams in the playoffs, all with 7 DI wins.

If ISUr beats SDSU, even if ISUr then loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 7-3 (with losses to NDSU, UNI, and ISUr)
ISUr: 8-3

Both still have 7 DI wins, and their losses are only to MVFC teams above them.

Not to pick on Montana, but I saw on here that people still think they have a chance if they lose to UC-Davis then run the table (7-4). No offense intended, but Portland State, Western Illinois, and the manner in which they lost to UND do not seem as good in my mind as losing to the top 3 MVFC teams. It is not like Montana will have lost to the top 3 Big Sky teams, and it might also require the Big Sky getting 5 teams into the playoffs (UC-Davis, EWU, Weber State, Idaho State).

Please tell me what I am missing.

Nothing, totally agree with you. Both SDSU AND ISUr have a clear path to the playoffs as long as they beat the teams they should. (Bottom feeders of MVFC).

[Professor Chaos]

I am not so sure. Let's assume NDSU and UNI win out (that's two MVFC teams in the playoffs)

If SDSU beats ISUr, and ISUr loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 8-2
ISUr: 7-4 (with only losses to NDSU, UNI, SDSU, and Missouri State, but with Colorado State FBS win)

This is only four MVFC teams in the playoffs, all with 7 DI wins.

If ISUr beats SDSU, even if ISUr then loses to UNI, then:

SDSU: 7-3 (with losses to NDSU, UNI, and ISUr)
ISUr: 8-3

Both still have 7 DI wins, and their losses are only to MVFC teams above them.

Not to pick on Montana, but I saw on here that people still think they have a chance if they lose to UC-Davis then run the table (7-4). No offense intended, but Portland State, Western Illinois, and the manner in which they lost to UND do not seem as good in my mind as losing to the top 3 MVFC teams. It is not like Montana will have lost to the top 3 Big Sky teams, and it might also require the Big Sky getting 5 teams into the playoffs (UC-Davis, EWU, Weber State, Idaho State).

Please tell me what I am missing.
Either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs but the loser pretty much eliminates any margin for error they have after this game and can most likely kiss any chance of being seeded goodbye.

I think the only thing you're missing is Illinois St at 7-4 would only have 6 D1 wins (which doesn't automatically eliminate them). At 7-4 they would present an interesting debate. They have that sub-D1 win but they also have an FBS win. They'd be 4-4 in conference which is underwhelming and a possible ugly loss to Missouri St. Then again if Missouri St is also at 7-4 that's probably not good for Illinois St either since they'd most likely get knocked below them in the pecking order due to that head-to-head loss.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs but the loser pretty much eliminates any margin for error they have after this game and can most likely kiss any chance of being seeded goodbye.

Illinois St at 7-4 would present an interesting debate. They have that sub-D1 win but they also have an FBS win. They'd be 4-4 in conference which is underwhelming and a possible ugly loss to Missouri St. Then again if Missouri St is also at 7-4 that's probably not good Illinois St either since they'd probably get knocked below them in the pecking order.

100% agreed.

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That Colorado State win is the one that might counteract the Missouri State loss.

[F'N Hawks]

Either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs but the loser pretty much eliminates any margin for error they have after this game and can most likely kiss any chance of being seeded goodbye.

Illinois St at 7-4 would present an interesting debate. They have that sub-D1 win but they also have an FBS win. They'd be 4-4 in conference which is underwhelming and a possible ugly loss to Missouri St. Then again if Missouri St is also at 7-4 that's probably not good Illinois St either since they'd probably get knocked below them in the pecking order.

*raises hand* :D

[Preferred Walk-On]

Either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs but the loser pretty much eliminates any margin for error they have after this game and can most likely kiss any chance of being seeded goodbye.

I think the only thing you're missing is Illinois St at 7-4 would only have 6 D1 wins (which doesn't automatically eliminate them). At 7-4 they would present an interesting debate. They have that sub-D1 win but they also have an FBS win. They'd be 4-4 in conference which is underwhelming and a possible ugly loss to Missouri St. Then again if Missouri St is also at 7-4 that's probably not good for Illinois St either since they'd most likely get knocked below them in the pecking order.

Sorry, your post was cut off in my browser. I forgot that one win was sub-D1 (my bad). Yes, then the margin of error just got smaller, with ISUr needing to beat either SDSU or UNI. Probably cannot lose to both.

[Professor Chaos]

Sorry, your post was cut off in my browser. I forgot that one win was sub-D1 (my bad). Yes, then the margin of error just got smaller, with ISUr needing to beat either SDSU or UNI. Probably cannot lose to both.
Yep, agreed.

Btw, I edited my post after you quoted it so it wasn't your browser... it was the whirlwind in my brain deciding it had more to say. :D

[Prime Power]

Either team can lose this game and still make the playoffs but the loser pretty much eliminates any margin for error they have after this game and can most likely kiss any chance of being seeded goodbye.

I think the only thing you're missing is Illinois St at 7-4 would only have 6 D1 wins (which doesn't automatically eliminate them). At 7-4 they would present an interesting debate. They have that sub-D1 win but they also have an FBS win. They'd be 4-4 in conference which is underwhelming and a possible ugly loss to Missouri St. Then again if Missouri St is also at 7-4 that's probably not good for Illinois St either since they'd most likely get knocked below them in the pecking order due to that head-to-head loss.

If Missouri State is 7-4 they would have to beat 3 of these 4 teams...Southern Illinois, SDSU, NDSU, and UNI. That would be a heck of tall task. I see ISUr losing to both SDSU and UNI, finishing at 7-4.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Yep, agreed.

Btw, I edited my post after you quoted it so it wasn't your browser... it was the whirlwind in my brain deciding it had more to say. :D

Happens to the best of us.

[RootinFerDukes]

I voted JMU/SB because if JMU were to lose, or even play like crap again against a quality opponent, the national field is wide open after NDSU... not that it'll likely matter in the end haha.

[RootinFerDukes]

I voted Towson/Delaware because I think we learn the most with that game.

Yes it has the ability to learn more than the JMU/SB game. Is Towson for real? A win here would prove it. Is UD finally back in the playoff hunt? A must win to stay in that conversation.

The winner will solidify themselves in the top 10 and be in the seed conversation moving forward. The loser will fall to a fringe playoff team, especially UD.

[Professor Chaos]

If Missouri State is 7-4 they would have to beat 3 of these 4 teams...Southern Illinois, SDSU, NDSU, and UNI. That would be a heck of tall task. I see ISUr losing to both SDSU and UNI, finishing at 7-4.
Yeah, that's true. Missouri St is pretty much out at this point. Or if they do figure out a way to get to 7-4 somehow they're going to be knocking someone else like SDSU or UNI out in the process which would, in theory, help Illinois St at 7-4.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Four GOTW candidates within two votes. There is no mail-in vote, no electoral college, and the poll closes on Saturday. Every vote counts! #Vote

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer at Wofford isn't the game of the week, but it's definitely a game of interest. We don't know how good or bad Mercer is at this point. We kinda know Wofford is good. Both teams are tied for first in the Socon. Mercer will hoist itself in the playoff discussion with a win and Wofford will pad its playoff resume with a big win. Wofford needs to win 2 of the next 3 to all but clinch a playoff spot, while Mercer likely has to win out to be considered for the playoffs (they have a good win against Samford, but it looks less impressive with Samford slumping a bit)

[Preferred Walk-On]

STATS slightly disagrees with our currrent GOTW.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20181024123148897506504&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS