Southern Conference Week 9 Power Rankings/Pick 'Em

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 3-1 last week. Wofford bounced back and gave ETSU a great game. Here's where I have at it after today's games (numbers in parenthesis indicates the number of wins needed vs. games remaining for a chance at an at-large bid).

1) Wofford (2 of 4) - Back on top in time for another game of the week.
2) East Tennessee State (2 of 3) - Not going to win games when you turn over the ball three times.
3) Mercer (3 of 4) - Defense took a beating, offense dished out an even bigger beating.
4) Chattanooga (2 of 4) - Took a break this week.
5) Samford (OUT) - Kept their autobid hopes alive.
6) Furman (OUT) - Saw their playoff hopes go up in smoke.
7) The Citadel (OUT) - Holds on to the Silver Shako.
8) Western Carolina (OUT) - Offense dished out a beating, defense took a bigger beating.
9) VMI (OUT) - Saw their best and last chance of winning a conference game slip away.

Week 9 Games
Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Bears pound it out in a good one.
Furman @ The Citadel - Bulldogs takes care of business.
VMI @ Chattanooga (Beatdown of the Week) - Mocs keep their playoff hopes alive.
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Bucs keep their autobid hopes alive.

Autobid Status
Western Carolina - can be eliminated with a loss at ETSU or a Wofford win
The Citadel - can be eliminated with a loss or either an ETSU or Wofford win
Wofford did Chattanooga and Furman a solid today as had ETSU won today and next week, they would be on the chopping block with a loss next week.

[Reign of Terrier]

1) Wofford
2) ETSU
3) Chatt
4) Mercer
5) Samford
6) Furman
7) citadel
8) Western
9) VMI

At this point I think Wofford, ETSU, AND chatt are the only teams that play consistent defense. That may get them in the playoffs. Wofford is the most complete team with the most depth. We had a necessary coarse correction in Greenville last week, and I don't see us repeating the overconfidence. The best defenses we will play this year are behind us. But the best offenses we will play are ahead of us. Mercer is probably the team that can replicate what Furman did from a tactical standpoint, whereas Samford and western will attack us in different ways than what we have seen thus far. It will be a challenge.

I really do think Wofford's defense sets us apart from the rest of the conference when we are in right mindset.

The only remaining realistic shots at the playoffs are my listed top 5. I think the conference gets 3, possibly 4, pending on the chaos that Samford inflicts.

Picks for the week:
Wofford
Furman
Chatt
ETSU

We could have 3 teams at 8-3 or better and a conference champ at 7-4. Socon isn't down.


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[ElCid]

This is what it is all about boys. It was one heck of a game. VMI is definitely a lot better this year. Good to see, but glad the Shako stays in Charleston yet again.


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29318&stc=1

[bonarae]

Wofford
Furman
Chattanooga
ETSU

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[gofurman]

I was 3-1 last week. Wofford bounced back and gave ETSU a great game. Here's where I have at it after today's games (numbers in parenthesis indicates the number of wins needed vs. games remaining for a chance at an at-large bid).

1) Wofford (2 of 4) - Back on top in time for another game of the week.
2) East Tennessee State (2 of 3) - Not going to win games when you turn over the ball three times.
3) Mercer (3 of 4) - Defense took a beating, offense dished out an even bigger beating.
4) Chattanooga (2 of 4) - Took a break this week.
5) Samford (OUT) - Kept their autobid hopes alive.
6) Furman (OUT) - Saw their playoff hopes go up in smoke.
7) The Citadel (OUT) - Holds on to the Silver Shako.
8) Western Carolina (OUT) - Offense dished out a beating, defense took a bigger beating.
9) VMI (OUT) - Saw their best and last chance of winning a conference game slip away.

Week 9 Games
Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Bears pound it out in a good one.
Furman @ The Citadel - Bulldogs takes care of business.
VMI @ Chattanooga (Beatdown of the Week) - Mocs keep their playoff hopes alive.
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Bucs keep their autobid hopes alive.

Autobid Status
Western Carolina - can be eliminated with a loss at ETSU or a Wofford win
The Citadel - can be eliminated with a loss and either an ETSU or Wofford win
Wofford did Chattanooga and Furman a solid today as had ETSU won today and next week, they would be on the chopping block with a loss next week.

Before you pick Citadel you really ought to take less of a macro view and ask Wofford how well we specifically defend the option. I mean that seriously. That's not a knock on Wofford just a truly objective statement.

Its all all about match ups.

Now the HUGE caveat for that game is do we have Roberts at QB ? If not then our O will struggle and our D may get gassed. But if he plays - though if it's a concussion we may still be limited to running less option keepers - we could do well.

I honestly think Young terrier would back me on this. He saw how we are coached vs option. Our LBs scrape and pursue to the sideline etc

[PaladinFan]

1) Wofford
2) ETSU
3) Chatt
4) Mercer
5) Samford
6) Furman
7) citadel
8) Western
9) VMI

At this point I think Wofford, ETSU, AND chatt are the only teams that play consistent defense. That may get them in the playoffs. Wofford is the most complete team with the most depth. We had a necessary coarse correction in Greenville last week, and I don't see us repeating the overconfidence. The best defenses we will play this year are behind us. But the best offenses we will play are ahead of us. Mercer is probably the team that can replicate what Furman did from a tactical standpoint, whereas Samford and western will attack us in different ways than what we have seen thus far. It will be a challenge.

I really do think Wofford's defense sets us apart from the rest of the conference when we are in right mindset.

The only remaining realistic shots at the playoffs are my listed top 5. I think the conference gets 3, possibly 4, pending on the chaos that Samford inflicts.

Picks for the week:
Wofford
Furman
Chatt
ETSU

We could have 3 teams at 8-3 or better and a conference champ at 7-4. Socon isn't down.


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You already forgot last week, didn't you?

[PaladinFan]

I think Furman is still alive for a playoff spot.

If Furman wins out, we'd be 6-2 in the SoCon. If Samford wins out they'd be 6-2 and so will Wofford. I think that puts us back into a 2013 scenario. Also possibly ETSU and UTC could end up 6-2 as well.

[The Cats]

Week 9 Games

Wofford
Furman
Chattanooga
East Tennessee State (WCU has no defense to speak of)

[Reign of Terrier]

You already forgot last week, didn't you?Georgia Southern lost to Furman by way worse one year and still won a national title.

I don't think we are that good but there is precedent for teams laying a frickin egg one week and rallying. Wofford is going to win at least 7 games this year.

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[Milktruck74]

I think Furman is still alive for a playoff spot.

If Furman wins out, we'd be 6-2 in the SoCon. If Samford wins out they'd be 6-2 and so will Wofford. I think that puts us back into a 2013 scenario. Also possibly ETSU and UTC could end up 6-2 as well.

If theMocs and Furple get past the Military boys this week (I think ours is a bit easier than yours), it sets up a pretty big showdown in GVL next week with quite a bit on the line.!!!

[gofurman]

If theMocs and Furple get past the Military boys this week (I think ours is a bit easier than yours), it sets up a pretty big showdown in GVL next week with quite a bit on the line.!!!

If we don’t have Roberts yours is WAY easier than ours. If we do have him at 100% then yours is still easier, just not as much

Charleston (Johnson Haygood) is a tough place to win. I think UTC won by a point in OT there? I wouldn’t fear Citadel nearly as much in Greenville. We haven’t lost a game in Greenville where we had Roberts at QB

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Before you pick Citadel you really ought to take less of a macro view and ask Wofford how well we specifically defend the option. I mean that seriously. That's not a knock on Wofford just a truly objective statement.

Its all all about match ups.

Now the HUGE caveat for that game is do we have Roberts at QB ? If not then our O will struggle and our D may get gassed. But if he plays - though if it's a concussion we may still be limited to running less option keepers - we could do well.

I honestly think Young terrier would back me on this. He saw how we are coached vs option. Our LBs scrape and pursue to the sideline etc

Whether or not Roberts plays at QB is the biggest question mark I have on Furman. Your team has improved greatly since you played us. Heck, I would submit if Sanders kept Logan Lucky in the game against you instead of throwing a curveball in the form of Herink, we would have lost.

[UpstateBison]

I think Furman is still alive for a playoff spot.

If Furman wins out, we'd be 6-2 in the SoCon. If Samford wins out they'd be 6-2 and so will Wofford. I think that puts us back into a 2013 scenario. Also possibly ETSU and UTC could end up 6-2 as well.

This is an honest question. Why do you think you would still be alive for a playoff spot if you win out? You would be 6-4 with your only Top 25 win against Wofford, I think. As an objective outside observer, I do not think that is a very good resume. I really think the SoCon OOC record will hurt them this year. I want you in because I want to attend a good playoff game the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

[ETSUfan1]

I think ETSU will have to win out to get in. I think the SoCon gets 2 in and ETSU would not get preference over any other 2 loss team.

[Reign of Terrier]

With playoff speculation, it's worth mentioning that the MVFC is down this year. The OVC may be slightly "up" (I don't see an 8-3 JSU team not getting in, even if their resume is weak) and the Southland may be a cluster**** as well.

In this way, I think framing any playoff speculation in terms of quality OOC wins is going to lose some accuracy when the dust settles compared to prior years.

As for the actual speculation, as a Wofford fan, I want Wofford to win the conference. But, if I were to bet, I think Samford winning the autobid would be the best thing for the conference in terms of playoff bids.

ETSU, Wofford, and Chatt at 8-3 would be hard to leave out because each would have a quality win against a team of at least 7 wins. Chatt may be the weakest link there, but 8-3 with losses to ETSU and Wofford wouldn't be bad.

Then again, the logic of the committee is always a little internally valid but there are multiple permutations with equal (theoretical) validity.



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[gofurman]

This is an honest question. Why do you think you would still be alive for a playoff spot if you win out? You would be 6-4 with your only Top 25 win against Wofford, I think. As an objective outside observer, I do not think that is a very good resume. I really think the SoCon OOC record will hurt them this year. I want you in because I want to attend a good playoff game the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Good guestion. First you wouldn’t get to attend a playoff game. We Don’t bid enough to host playoff games unless we get one w a seed. We just don’t - which is something to address. I think what he is saying about making the playoffs is if Furman won out it’s not a 6-4 thing- it’s a 6-2 Conference SoCon thing. SoCon probably gets 2 bids? If we won out that means we beat Chatt so that gives them 3 SoCon losses. We would beat Mercer meaning they have 2 SoCon loss and we have the head-to-head over mercer .. that leaves Wofford and ETSU .. we need help. If they lose one more each everyone would have two losses and we have the head-to-head on Mercer. Probably on Wofford. ETSU would have us. It becomes a complicated thing. Not common but happens - happen in 2013 and. Furman was the winner once all the permutations were figured.

Only possible if Furman wins out AND ETSU and Wofford take another loss ...

[gofurman]

I’ll go on record that IF ROBERTS is healthy Furman beats Chattanooga. Book it. They couldn’t handle Wofford option and we bring a more diverse offense

[FUBeAR]

Before Saturday's games, only ETSU and Mercer had full control over their SoCon Championship AND Playoff autobid destinies. With Wofford's win over ETSU, Furman's loss to Samford, and Mercer's win over WCU, we still have 2 Teams that have full control over their own SoCon Championship AND Playoff autobid destinies, but one of those 2 has changed.

Mercer continues to own their own path, but now Wofford also does, while ETSU does not. Big head-to-head match-up in SparkleCity this week between the only 2 currently SoCon 'Destiny-Holders.'

Actually, only Mercer controls their own destiny with regard to winning the SoCon Championship outright. Every other Team with a shot at winning the Conference needs 'help' to win it outright. Mercer 'only' has to win their own games.

CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINIES
* Mercer - 3-1 - If they beat Wofford, ETSU, Chatt, AND Furman = 7-1 - Outright Champs + Autobid
* Wofford - 4-1 - If they beat Mercer, Samford, AND WCU = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/ETSU + Autobid. Outright Champ if ETSU loses 1+ SoCon game

STRAIGHTFORWARD PATH, BUT NEED 1 OTHER TEAM TO LOSE
* ETSU - 4-1 - If they beat WCU, Mercer, AND Samford = 7-1 - At worst, tie for Champ w/Wofford, need Wofford to lose 1+ SoCon game to get Autobid

COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING 2 or 3 OTHER TEAMS
* Chattanooga - 3-2 - If they beat VMI, Furman, AND Mercer = 6-2 - Would need Wofford AND ETSU to lose 2+ SoCon games to get Autobid
* Samford - 3-2 - If they beat Wofford, The Citadel, AND ETSU = 6-2 - Would need Mercer to lose 2+ SoCon games AND would need Chattanooga to lose 1+ to get Autobid
* Furman - 2-2 - If they beat The Citadel, Chattanooga, VMI, AND Mercer = 6-2 - Would need Wofford AND Samford to lose 1+ SoCon game (at least 1 of the will lose another SoCon game as they still have to play each other) AND would need ETSU to lose 2+ SoCon games to get Autobid

EXTREMELY COMPLICATED PATH INVOLVING MULTIPLE TEAMS
* The Citadel - 2-3 - If they beat Furman, WCU, AND Samford = 5-3 - Would need Mercer to beat ETSU AND Wofford BUT lose to Chatt AND Furman AND would need Wofford to also lose to Samford AND WCU AND would need ETSU to also lose to WCU AND Samford AND would need Chatt to lose to VMI AND Furman.

NO PATH
* WCU 1-4 - I couldn't cipher out a path for WCU to win the SoCon AND get the autobid. There may be one, but I am not Stephen Hawking.
* VMI - 0-6 - Cannot win SoCon nor get Autobid


Anyone see this ciphering as incorrect?

[Reign of Terrier]

None of the above accounts for a chaos scenario with multiple teams at 6-2

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[SU DOG]

[QUOTE=youngterrier;2695153]None of the above accounts for a chaos scenario with multiple teams at 6-2

And that is a VERY good possibility.

[The Cats]

A team that is capable of putting up 710 yards of total offense against a decent defense, should not lose.



Tyrie Adams amassed a school-record 545 yards of total offense including 360 yards through the air and a career-high 185 yards rushing on Saturday afternoon at Five Star Stadium.

Adams accounted for four touchdowns – two rushing and a pair of passing TDs – as the Catamounts piled up 710 yards of total offense, finishing one yard shy of the school record set by the Hall of Fame 1969 football team (711 yards vs. Emory & Henry).

Along the way, the St. Petersburg, Fla., native moved into second-place in WCU’s career record books with 6,347 career passing yards while closing to within one TD pass of former mentor Troy Mitchell (50, 2012-15) for the program’s career passing touchdown record now with 49 career scores through the air.

[PaladinFan]

This is an honest question. Why do you think you would still be alive for a playoff spot if you win out? You would be 6-4 with your only Top 25 win against Wofford, I think. As an objective outside observer, I do not think that is a very good resume. I really think the SoCon OOC record will hurt them this year. I want you in because I want to attend a good playoff game the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Mostly because there are several scenarios where multiple teams can tie for the SoCon title at 6-2.

[PaladinFan]

None of the above accounts for a chaos scenario with multiple teams at 6-2

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If Samford wins out, they are probably the autobid. They'd have 2 SoCon losses, but would hold the tie breaker by virtue of beating Wofford, Furman, and ETSU (who could also have two losses)

[Reign of Terrier]

A team that is capable of putting up 710 yards of total offense against a decent defense, should not lose.FU Bear may murder me for saying this but Mercer's defense is not great. Their offense is very likely legit, even without Riddle, passing the best outside of Samford.

But their defense is not good, especially in the last month. This is a very surprising development, considering I thought last year that Mercer probably had the best defense and a not-good offense.

Another key stat that explains why Samford is underperforming: turnover margin. Last year they took the ball away 25 times and turned it over 20. Through 8 games, they're already matched the turnover amount of 20, but have only taken it 16 times.

I haven't watched Samford as closely yet this year but Hodges may be throwing more interceptions more frequently. In some ways that's built into the offense, but Samford can't win against tough teams if they maintain this trend

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[FUBeAR]

None of the above accounts for a chaos scenario with multiple teams at 6-2

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Nope - wasn’t trying to...because there are still 3 Teams with only 1 Conference loss. I believe we will still have 2 Teams with only 1 loss after next Sat. If y’all want to cipher out the 2-loss tiebreaker scenarios, I think you should go for the 3 & 4 loss scenarios as well. Those events are still possible also.

All this tiny Bear brain can handle is what each Team has to do & needs to happen to ensure they make the Playoffs.

Speculating about what would happen if 3 different Teams ALL lose another SoCon game AND 1 to 3 other SoCon Teams don’t lose even one other SoCon game...or the effects of solar flares or (alleged) climate change are out of my depth.

Good Luck!!

[PaladinFan]

A couple of other Furman-related thoughts.

It goes without saying that the non-Roberts Furman offense is a shell of the Roberts Furman offense. Roberts, like Blazejowski before him, is a senior who, in my viewing, does a lot of the "little things" well. His option pitch game is typically spot on, he has a high completion percentage (68.5%), and few turnovers (only 2 interceptions - and I know at least one was against WCU where he was getting hit as he threw it).

There's a lot to like about Grainger. Against Samford, he showcased his speed and you got to see his big arm (maybe too big?). I think the massive difference right now is decision-making and ball security. I think it comes down to experience.

Example 1: Gooden disrupts a pass. Grainger drops back to one spot and then never moves. If Gooden wants to pass rush vis a vis the Duncan Chapel, no big deal. Step up into the clear pocket and let the rusher run by you. At worst, you buy more time for the throw. At best you take advantage of the ample green space to your left to pick up 5 or 7 yards on the ground.

https://twitter.com/SamfordFootball/status/1053719336089800707

Example 2: Gooden's fumble return. Furman is optioning Gooden. He attacks the QB. Pitch it. Furman has blocking outside and the fullback getting to the second level on the safety. Watkins likely runs for a while. Grainger got caught halfway between pitching it and not pitching it, and looked unprepared that Gooden would be on him that fast.

https://twitter.com/SamfordFootball/status/1053743450900836353

Again, I think these are little things you probably expect from a freshman. Particularly true of a freshman that spent most of his high school career as a wide receiver. From watching his high school film when he committed to Furman, you can immediately tell that his high school offense looked nothing like Furman's current offense. So, I think while he has a lot of the physical tools to be successful, he just needs time. Not only to learn the QB position, but to get acclimated to what Furman does offensively.

And lest I get too critical, there were plenty of positives. This is a beautiful ball thrown to Gordon.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1053740485917913093

[walliver]

Power rankings:
not clear cut, and nobody really seems to be #1 but,
1 - Samford - not the dominant team many expected, but could well run the table
2 - Wofford - played well against ETSU, but still too many mental errors, could still run the table
3 - Furman - injuries taking their toll. Likely to fall in my poll going forward
4 - ETSU - defense is legit, but offense still needs work
5 - Mercer - offense looks great, defensive numbers were horrible, but sometimes games just move to video-game shootout mode.
6 - Chattanooga - could be as high as #4
7 - The Citadel - finally won a close one
8 - WCU - 710 yards offense and a loss - the worst defense since the French Army in WWII.
9 - VMI - they play hard, but losses do have consequences

This week:
Mercer at Wofford - Cubbies scored a lot of point but gave up 710 yards. Terrier offense never gets 710 yards, but does try on defense, and T-Dogs win 31-23
Furman at The Citadel - Chucktown pups won a close one. Even with injuries, Furman has more talent, but struggles against the home-standing pups who do a better job defending their territory than they did in 1865 and Citadel wins 28-27
VMI at Chattanooga - The kangaroos put up a valiant effort again last week and will do so again. Possibly this is the week for a VMI upset, but I doubt it. Chatty comes off a bye week and wins 34-21
WCU at ETSU - The Mountain Pirate offense slows the game down some and slows down the Cant offense and wins 35-28

Playoffs:
Most likely in: Samford, Wofford and ETSU
Bubble: Mercer
Making plans for Thanksgiving at home: everybody else.

[FCSfan]

What are the Mercer and Wofford fan forums?

[sudog03]

A couple of other Furman-related thoughts.

It goes without saying that the non-Roberts Furman offense is a shell of the Roberts Furman offense. Roberts, like Blazejowski before him, is a senior who, in my viewing, does a lot of the "little things" well. His option pitch game is typically spot on, he has a high completion percentage (68.5%), and few turnovers (only 2 interceptions - and I know at least one was against WCU where he was getting hit as he threw it).

There's a lot to like about Grainger. Against Samford, he showcased his speed and you got to see his big arm (maybe too big?). I think the massive difference right now is decision-making and ball security. I think it comes down to experience.

Example 1: Gooden disrupts a pass. Grainger drops back to one spot and then never moves. If Gooden wants to pass rush vis a vis the Duncan Chapel, no big deal. Step up into the clear pocket and let the rusher run by you. At worst, you buy more time for the throw. At best you take advantage of the ample green space to your left to pick up 5 or 7 yards on the ground.

https://twitter.com/SamfordFootball/status/1053719336089800707

Example 2: Gooden's fumble return. Furman is optioning Gooden. He attacks the QB. Pitch it. Furman has blocking outside and the fullback getting to the second level on the safety. Watkins likely runs for a while. Grainger got caught halfway between pitching it and not pitching it, and looked unprepared that Gooden would be on him that fast.

https://twitter.com/SamfordFootball/status/1053743450900836353

Again, I think these are little things you probably expect from a freshman. Particularly true of a freshman that spent most of his high school career as a wide receiver. From watching his high school film when he committed to Furman, you can immediately tell that his high school offense looked nothing like Furman's current offense. So, I think while he has a lot of the physical tools to be successful, he just needs time. Not only to learn the QB position, but to get acclimated to what Furman does offensively.

And lest I get too critical, there were plenty of positives. This is a beautiful ball thrown to Gordon.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1053740485917913093

Multiple times FU tried to block Gooden with a back or a TE. That's not Granger's fault.

[Sir William]

This has been a tough season for Paladin Nation, but I'm gonna take a reasonable shot at putting it in perspective for our fan base.

I was at the game this past Saturday, and after taking a 19-10 lead early in the 2nd half, it was tough to watch Samford take over and run away with the game, especially when much of it was our own undoing. I was also at the Elon game earlier this year, and what a disaster. Enough said on that.

Here's the reality. When CCH came on board just under 2 yrs ago, our program had been driven into the ground over several years (not an excuse, but the truth). Once Hendrix was on board, most of us felt it would be year 3 of his tenure before the Paladins began to show sound improvement and would begin to show consistent championship form. Then, last year, we caught fire and rattled off 7 straight wins, and got as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs. The expectation bar was immediately raised, including mine. Now, this year, we are sitting at 2-4 hoping for a .500 season, and some may be wondering what's going on.

The reality - we are still rebuilding. Hendrix and staff are doing a great job with what they have, and are building for the future. Recruiting is going very well from what I understand, and has been for the past 2 years.

This is not about making excuses. It's also not intended to be a "wait 'til next year" statement (Heaven help us if we ever foster that kind of talk!). Nonetheless, we are not yet a good football team - again, not yet. Remember...this program was in the dumpster just a couple of years ago; now, we are definitely headed in the right direction.

Patience.

[Reign of Terrier]

What are the Mercer and Wofford fan forums?It's terrierfans for Wofford but if you try to sign up for it, DM, we literally get 1000s of spam accounts a day so we basically don't accept any

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[PaladinFan]

I'm not suggesting Gooden is an easy guy to block. I'm just suggesting that if Grainger senses that pressure, moves up two steps, he probably runs for the first down.

But that play is a good example of Furman's issue. Furman has a freshman QB, a freshman FB, a freshman RB, and a sophomore RG (who played DT last season) pulling trying to deal with an All American DE. The gap is noticeable.

Again, these are execution problems that Furman is struggling through. Gooden shouldn't be in the backfield. The RB runs into the RG (I expect he's suppose to fill in for the RG, not run into him), the RG pulls and blocks nobody, the FB blocks the right guy, but it's not a particularly good block.

Gooden is a handful, but that's an execution problem. There is nothing wrong with that play call.

I just see that sort of stuff as what gets fixed with experience.

- - - Updated - - -


It's terrierfans for Wofford but if you try to sign up for it, DM, we literally get 1000s of spam accounts a day so we basically don't accept any

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I think I've tried to sign up twice over the years, and never did. I assumed its because they don't like thought police.

[PaladinFan]

This has been a tough season for Paladin Nation, but I'm gonna take a reasonable shot at putting it in perspective for our fan base.

I was at the game this past Saturday, and after taking a 19-10 lead early in the 2nd half, it was tough to watch Samford take over and run away with the game, especially when much of it was our own undoing. I was also at the Elon game earlier this year, and what a disaster. Enough said on that.

Here's the reality. When CCH came on board just under 2 yrs ago, our program had been driven into the ground over several years (not an excuse, but the truth). Once Hendrix was on board, most of us felt it would be year 3 of his tenure before the Paladins began to show sound improvement and would begin to show consistent championship form. Then, last year, we caught fire and rattled off 7 straight wins, and got as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs. The expectation bar was immediately raised, including mine. Now, this year, we are sitting at 2-4 hoping for a .500 season, and some may be wondering what's going on.

The reality - we are still rebuilding. Hendrix and staff are doing a great job with what they have, and are building for the future. Recruiting is going very well from what I understand, and has been for the past 2 years.

This is not about making excuses. It's also not intended to be a "wait 'til next year" statement (Heaven help us if we ever foster that kind of talk!). Nonetheless, we are not yet a good football team - again, not yet. Remember...this program was in the dumpster just a couple of years ago; now, we are definitely headed in the right direction.

Patience.

You see it the way I do.

Hendrix inherited a team with seniors at keystone positions. They were exposed against better defenses.

This offseason Hendrix decided to eschew more field time for the weight room. Maybe he does that again this year. I like what we are doing in recruiting. We are landing a lot of highly sought after recruits and I expect will soon get things right.

I think a lot of folks (me included) got sucked into last year's success and thought that would be our baseline this year. It hasn't been. This is a rebuilding season. I like where we are. I like the defense. I like the offense. I think it just needs time.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm not suggesting Gooden is an easy guy to block. I'm just suggesting that if Grainger senses that pressure, moves up two steps, he probably runs for the first down.

But that play is a good example of Furman's issue. Furman has a freshman QB, a freshman FB, a freshman RB, and a sophomore RG (who played DT last season) pulling trying to deal with an All American DE. The gap is noticeable.

Again, these are execution problems that Furman is struggling through. Gooden shouldn't be in the backfield. The RB runs into the RG (I expect he's suppose to fill in for the RG, not run into him), the RG pulls and blocks nobody, the FB blocks the right guy, but it's not a particularly good block.

Gooden is a handful, but that's an execution problem. There is nothing wrong with that play call.

I just see that sort of stuff as what gets fixed with experience.

- - - Updated - - -



I think I've tried to sign up twice over the years, and never did. I assumed its because they don't like thought police.If you try it again and let me know the name I will approve it. There are less than 300 real users and we get literally 1000 spam accounts a week

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[walliver]

If you try it again and let me know the name I will approve it. There are less than 300 real users and we get literally 1000 spam accounts a week

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

You will, however, be required to demonstrate statistical knowledge at a PhD level.

[Reign of Terrier]

You will, however, be required to demonstrate statistical knowledge at a PhD level.

I think I can search for the user name. The guy who knows the tech stuff (BestofBreed) has been MIA for literally years

[walliver]

I think I can search for the user name. The guy who knows the tech stuff (BestofBreed) has been MIA for literally years

I actually was referring to PaladinFan needing statistical knowledge to post.

I had noticed that BoB had disappeared a long time ago. I appreciate all that you and DJ do to keep the board running.

[PaladinFan]

I actually was referring to PaladinFan needing statistical knowledge to post.

I had noticed that BoB had disappeared a long time ago. I appreciate all that you and DJ do to keep the board running.

Unfortunately, my grad school work is in argument, not statistics.

I'm the guy that takes the numbers and make them fit my narrative.

[Reign of Terrier]

Here are some general, uncontroversial conclusions we can draw from the Socon, ordered from obvious to the more nuanced:

1) Western Carolina's defense is bad
2) VMI is improved
3) Furman is a different team when Roberts is at QB
4) ETSU's defense is for real
5) we don't know enough about Mercer
6) Citadel will likely compete with any/everybody
7) Chattanooga may not jump out at you, but they are competing for a playoff spot
8) Samford is still dangerous
9) For better or worse, Wofford is about the same they were last year

For the more nuanced takes on chattanooga, Mercer, and ETSU:
1) ETSU and Chattanooga are very similar. Both play great defense while also playing not-spectacular offense. I'm starting to think some of it is by design. If Chattanooga had their way, they would pass the ball for somewhere between 250-350 yards and run the ball for 100-150 yards. In the games they've struggled, they failed to do that. Playing tough defense is part of who they are. It's a weird dynamic because they don't aim to score a million points and usually teams like that favor the run game, but Chattanooga unequivocally favors the pass. Some people think chattanooga is bad, but in reality, they've played the toughest defenses on their (regular season) schedule already. The remaining defenses on their schedule are not spectacular, especially with defending the pass, and Chattanooga has a good enough defense to keep the score low.

With ETSU, I really think people should stop looking at them as a flash in the pan or a lucky team. They have a good defense that actually held Wofford to season lows in terms of yardage. There was some questionable play calling by the terriers, I will admit, but I'm not going to take away from ETSU. They are tough, scrappy team. They finished 5-6 last year, so competing for 6-8 wins shouldn't be that surprising, especially since this is their first true senior class. They no doubt have more leadership and depth than they did last year. It's true that their offense is not spectacular, but I also think we could missing something between the lines. Unlike chattanooga, they *want* to run the ball. And in their ideal game, they would have a 50-50 split yardage wise between the air and ground. It's true that they didn't play well @ VMI, but I think had Herink played, the output would have been better. From a yardage and scoring standpoint, I may be defending them too much here, but they scored on half of their possessions against the Citadel and we all know what they did to Furman. They didn't play spectacularly against Wofford and Chattanooga, but I think those teams are safely the best defenses in the conference (at least thus far).

ETSU has 3 more games left, 2 of them at home. They probably have the best home field advantage in the socon right now, as evident by how they overperform against much better teams (in the last 2 years or so). Their defense could keep things competitive with Samford and they can exploit Western Carolina's defense. They have both of them at home, which is huge. I think a 7-4 ETSU team is a possibility.

Mercer is still a team that can make a run. They have a great offense that is best equipped to exploit the weaknesses in Wofford's defense that Furman exposed. They're probably the best non-air-raid passing team in the Socon. They are very efficient. There's nothing to suggest that their next 4 games aren't winnable. Their defense may be problematic, but they are still alive.

[FUBeAR]

What are the Mercer and Wofford fan forums?
As the ‘owner’ of the Mercer Fan Forum, “BearDownMU,” has been laid up for over 3 months with a serious health issue, the prior domain www.mubeardown.com has lapsed. But the board is still functioning just fine. You can access it here: http://mercer.freeforums.net/

Not too many people posting there, FCSfan, but we welcome your contributions. I know you can post as a guest, but I’m not sure where things stand if you want to register.

FYI to all interested - “BearDownMU” went home from the hospital last week and he is on the mend. Long road to full recovery, but we think he’s going to be OK.

[PaladinFan]

So, in the most obvious selections since the awards were given, Adams, Gooden, and Atkins win SoCon player of the week awards.

[PaladinFan]

Also, if you invest in HERO sports opinion, Furman has 5 of the top 21 SoCon recruits (including 3 of the top 6). https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-recruiting-top-southern-conference-oct-2018-ajaj

That does not include Josh Slay, who Furman picked up yesterday. Watched his film, that dude is a linebacker's linebacker.

https://twitter.com/BrianMacWriter/status/1054414929040719872

[Reign of Terrier]

I've learned that recruiting stuff is a crap shoot.

Also his format is a bit inconsistent; he says something like "5 FBS schools +12 FCS schools" for some recruits but "Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Charleston Southern" on another.

Georgia Southern and Liberty are FBS.

I don't really care one way or another, but this anchors one's brain into hyping up some recruits over others. Either list the individual schools or just the subdivision breakdown.

[PaladinFan]

I've learned that recruiting stuff is a crap shoot.

Also his format is a bit inconsistent; he says something like "5 FBS schools +12 FCS schools" for some recruits but "Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Charleston Southern" on another.

Georgia Southern and Liberty are FBS.

I don't really care one way or another, but this anchors one's brain into hyping up some recruits over others. Either list the individual schools or just the subdivision breakdown.

Sure, those issues are well documented.

I will say that I used to give these recruiting services short-shrift because they never seemed to highly regard Furman's classes. Of course, over time, Furman got progressively worse and fewer and fewer of the recruits ended up being meaningful contributors (i.e., why we constantly have a depth and youth problem).

I watched some of the film on these cats, though. I always get nervous seeing guys that are just superior athletes. Ok, great, you are the best athlete on the field and of course you look unstoppable. How are you going to look against guys that are bigger and faster than anyone you've ever played? And there's 11 of them.

You watch the high school tape on guys like Adrian Hope though? The dude clearly is a good football player. Objectively good. If he was bigger, I almost guarantee he'd be at an SEC school. You just put the film on and can see he's not only the best player on the field in high school, but that he's going to be able to carry that forward in the Southern Conference.

[FCSfan]

As the ‘owner’ of the Mercer Fan Forum, “BearDownMU,” has been laid up for over 3 months with a serious health issue, the prior domain www.mubeardown.com (http://www.mubeardown.com) has lapsed. But the board is still functioning just fine. You can access it here: http://mercer.freeforums.net/

Not too many people posting there, FCSfan, but we welcome your contributions. I know you can post as a guest, but I’m not sure where things stand if you want to register.

FYI to all interested - “BearDownMU” went home from the hospital last week and he is on the mend. Long road to full recovery, but we think he’s going to be OK.
__________________________________________________ _________

Here's hoping for a speedy recovery!
Just like to read up on match-ups

[Catamount87]

To quote Annie Savoy in Bull Durham, "This is the damnedest season I've ever seen."

My Power Ranks presented in a bit of a different way this week.

Land of Post Season Hopes and Dreams
Wofford - like a Timex watch, they just keep on ticking
East Tennessee State - SoCon surprise of the year #1
Chattanooga - SoCon surprise #2, really did anyone think they'd turn it around this well?
Samford - SoCon surprise #3, did anyone think they'd have such a bad start?


Land of Lollygaggers and No Defense
Mercer - Can score a lot and give up a lot
The Citadel - Scores a little and gives up a little more
Furman - SoCon Surprise #4 - The all around surprise - Can't really score and gives up a lot
VMI - SoCon Surprise #5 - Can score a bit and gives up a lot more
WCU - SoCon Surprise #6 - We knew the Cats can score but just not show up on defense??? We lands here because VMI coaching baffoonery kept VMI from winning the "no defense allowed" game

I'll refrain from posting predictions because apparently predictions in the SoCon this year are like this Crash Davis quote, "I wouldn't dig in if I was you. Next one might be at your head. I don't know where it's gonna go. Swear to God."

[FUBeAR]

To quote Annie Savoy in Bull Durham, "This is the damnedest season I've ever seen."

My Power Ranks presented in a bit of a different way this week.

Land of Post Season Hopes and Dreams
Wofford - like a Timex watch, they just keep on ticking
East Tennessee State - SoCon surprise of the year #1
Chattanooga - SoCon surprise #2, really did anyone think they'd turn it around this well?
Samford - SoCon surprise #3, did anyone think they'd have such a bad start?


Land of Lollygaggers and No Defense
Mercer - Can score a lot and give up a lot
The Citadel - Scores a little and gives up a little more
Furman - SoCon Surprise #4 - The all around surprise - Can't really score and gives up a lot
VMI - SoCon Surprise #5 - Can score a bit and gives up a lot more
WCU - SoCon Surprise #6 - We knew the Cats can score but just not show up on defense??? We lands here because VMI coaching baffoonery kept VMI from winning the "no defense allowed" game

I'll refrain from posting predictions because apparently predictions in the SoCon this year are like this Crash Davis quote, "I wouldn't dig in if I was you. Next one might be at your head. I don't know where it's gonna go. Swear to God."I love the Bull Durham theme. Favorite scene is the mound visit where Robert Wuhl tells them all how to solve their various issues...”candlesticks always make a nice gift”

I just cringe a little though, when there is only 1 Team in the SoCon right now that has complete control over their own destiny to win the SoCon Championship outright...and you don’t allow them to spend this week in your “Land of Post Season Hopes and Dreams.” I mean, I guess that’s fair if you expect Mercer to lose 3 of 4 or all 4 (which is entirely plausible) of their remaining games, but they could, I think, win just 2 of 4 and end up in some kind of 3 loss mosh pit tie-breaker. Also, they are the only 1-loss Team you have excluded from the reindeer games, while you have granted All-Access to 2-loss Chatt & Samford...who Mercer beat. The Bears are officially petitioning for asylum and a temporary visa in your land of Playoff Plenty. Mercer will accept that the visa requires weekly renewal. Where should counsel file the appropriate paperwork?

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer always makes me nervous because they are good, they have a good coach, and I want them to be successful.

But I'm mad at them because they're more comparable to the Citadel in the last few years than they are Samford or Chattanooga.

If this conference is going to break through and get the hype it used to have, we should all root for Mercer, Western Carolina and ETSU to keep building. If those 3 make the playoffs either this year or next, that makes 8 teams in the conference making the playoffs in a 4 year span. That's comparable to the MVFC and CAA. The catch is there are only 9 teams in the socon.

It's not my confidence in Wofford that leads me to think Mercer won't make it this year. It's possible that the Bear down my Terriers this weekend. I just think Mercer is another year away, especially on defense. We need some more diversity/consistency on top of the Socon.

And the entire conference should care about this because we schedule so weak. I think the top of the MVFC/CAA/Big Sky is better and more consistent than the Socon, but the entire conference is, on average, has a higher floor than many of those conferences. If we want to produce those elite programs at the top, we need Mercer, Western, and ETSU to step up.

[sudog03]

I've learned that recruiting stuff is a crap shoot.

Also his format is a bit inconsistent; he says something like "5 FBS schools +12 FCS schools" for some recruits but "Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Charleston Southern" on another.

Georgia Southern and Liberty are FBS.

I don't really care one way or another, but this anchors one's brain into hyping up some recruits over others. Either list the individual schools or just the subdivision breakdown.

While I appreciate the effort to promote FCS programs, I put about as much stock in the Farmer's Almanac as I do in evaluation of FCS recruits and classes.

[sudog03]

they have a good coach

Sure about that? Take out the season where they played Pioneer ball in transition and Lamb is 36-36 in the other 4 seasons at Mercer and last 2 at Furman. Mercer has put way too many resources in the football program to be a .500 program. I don't have any intel, but I really wonder if Lamb can survive another 6-5 season there.

[Catamount87]

I love the Bull Durham theme. Favorite scene is the mound visit where Robert Wuhl tells them all how to solve their various issues...”candlesticks always make a nice gift”

I just cringe a little though, when there is only 1 Team in the SoCon right now that has complete control over their own destiny to win the SoCon Championship outright...and you don’t allow them to spend this week in your “Land of Post Season Hopes and Dreams.” I mean, I guess that’s fair if you expect Mercer to lose 3 of 4 or all 4 (which is entirely plausible) of their remaining games, but they could, I think, win just 2 of 4 and end up in some kind of 3 loss mosh pit tie-breaker. Also, they are the only 1-loss Team you have excluded from the reindeer games, while you have granted All-Access to 2-loss Chatt & Samford...who Mercer beat. The Bears are officially petitioning for asylum and a temporary visa in your land of Playoff Plenty. Mercer will accept that the visa requires weekly renewal. Where should counsel file the appropriate paperwork?

Your petition for temporary asylum, I mean visa, has been duly noted and forwarded to the Council for Counseling the Temporarily Insa..we mean the Temporarily Detained. Should your petition be approved, it will be forwarded to the department of defensive redundant redundancy for processing. This process should take approximately 4 weeks.

[Reign of Terrier]

Sure about that? Take out the season where they played Pioneer ball in transition and Lamb is 36-36 in the other 4 seasons at Mercer and last 2 at Furman. Mercer has put way too many resources in the football program to be a .500 program. I don't have any intel, but I really wonder if Lamb can survive another 6-5 season there.

I actually agree with the evaluation here. Lamb's a good coach (there are many worse at this level), but it's a legitimate question whether or not he can take them to the next level. There's a difference between building a program (recruiting okay or good guys and being .500) and building a contender (recruiting good to great guys and going .800 or whatever). Lamb struggled to maintain success at Furman as the years waned, but he surpassed expectations many times at Mercer so far.

Lamb may have a ceiling as a coach/recruiter (Furman fans can probably attest to that), but he's good enough to win saturday.

[FUBeAR]

I actually agree with the evaluation here. Lamb's a good coach (there are many worse at this level), but it's a legitimate question whether or not he can take them to the next level. There's a difference between building a program (recruiting okay or good guys and being .500) and building a contender (recruiting good to great guys and going .800 or whatever). Lamb struggled to maintain success at Furman as the years waned, but he surpassed expectations many times at Mercer so far.

Lamb may have a ceiling as a coach/recruiter (Furman fans can probably attest to that), but he's good enough to win saturday.I’m not sure if it’s ‘fair’ to include Coach Lamb’s record at Furman when evaluating his effectiveness as a Head Coach. There were MANY things going on ‘behind the scenes’ there that took root in the mid-90’s up almost to Coach Lamb’s departure that negatively impacted the results of the Football program. I won’t get into the details at all, but if you want a similar ‘flavor’ go read some of threads on the WCU message boards right now, but add in academic constraints/requirements quite akin to the Ivies & Davidson.

It’s certainly fair to assess EVERYTHING that he has done at Mercer. Don’t arbitrarily remove the PFL year if you aren’t going to arbitrarily select another 10 negative games to remove. I’ll start with Samford 2017 if we’re going to play that game. Also give me back Wofford in 2014 & Memphis this year. I can probably come up with 7 others & then we can ‘play fair.’ There was nothing easy or non-competitive about that PFL year. Hell, he took a bunch of 18 year old walk-on’s to San Diego & outperformed what these Big Sky ‘powerhouses’ have done in the Playoffs the past 2 years!

By the way - this is truly a pointless exercise anyway. I have come to know Mercer’s President Underwood fairly well over the past 6 years and NONE of you (or me) want a Championship Football Program at Mercer University more than he does. With his successes in so many areas at Mercer during his tenure, I’m sure he has & will have the full faith & confidence of the Board of Trustees to make whatever decisions he feels are necessary to make regarding the Football Program. If the day ever arrives that he feels Coach Lamb is not the right person to lead Mercer to those Championships, that will be Coach Lamb’s last day on the job. That day isn’t today.

[FUBeAR]

Your petition for temporary asylum, I mean visa, has been duly noted and forwarded to the Council for Counseling the Temporarily Insa..we mean the Temporarily Detained. Should your petition be approved, it will be forwarded to the department of defensive redundant redundancy for processing. This process should take approximately 4 weeks.Fair enough. Paladin Fan, a Mercer Law Alum, will process the filing forthwith.

[SU DOG]

It has to be a good feeling to know that your President really WANTS football success. I'm not saying that our President doesn't, but there are plenty out there that are apathetic or ambivalent about football success at their school. That is a sometimes overlooked albatross around the neck of a coach and his football program.

[kdinva]

So, in the most obvious selections since the awards were given, Adams, Gooden, and Atkins win SoCon player of the week awards.

Yet STATS named Hodges as the National off. player of the week..........sorry, Adams numbers waaay more impressive, regardless if WCU won or not.....

[Milktruck74]

Yet STATS named Hodges as the National off. player of the week..........sorry, Adams numbers waaay more impressive, regardless if WCU won or not.....

While I agree with the sheer numbers being worthy of POW honors...at the QB position the W/L is the Trump card on numbers. Hodges just dropped a spade on Adams!!!

[Reign of Terrier]

While I agree with the sheer numbers being worthy of POW honors...at the QB position the W/L is the Trump card on numbers. Hodges just dropped a spade on Adams!!!I think the fact that it's based on stats inherently biases air raid teams

Blazejowski was hosed last year

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Cullowhee3]

FU Bear may murder me for saying this but Mercer's defense is not great. Their offense is very likely legit, even without Riddle, passing the best outside of Samford.

But their defense is not good, especially in the last month. This is a very surprising development, considering I thought last year that Mercer probably had the best defense and a not-good offense.

Another key stat that explains why Samford is underperforming: turnover margin. Last year they took the ball away 25 times and turned it over 20. Through 8 games, they're already matched the turnover amount of 20, but have only taken it 16 times.

I haven't watched Samford as closely yet this year but Hodges may be throwing more interceptions more frequently. In some ways that's built into the offense, but Samford can't win against tough teams if they maintain this trend

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Samford can not reach 7 D1 wins. So I don’t see them getting an auto bid.

[Reign of Terrier]

Samford can not reach 7 D1 wins. So I don’t see them getting an auto bid.Autobid has nothing to do with D1 wins. Autobid is conference title/tiebreaker

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[Cullowhee3]

Autobid has nothing to do with D1 wins. Autobid is conference title/tiebreaker

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I meant to say at larger*.

[UpstateBison]

I meant to say at larger*.

I agree. They will not get an at large bid. I think SoCon will get two teams in this year. Wofford and Chattanooga. The SoCon needs to schedule better teams in OOC games and win. Beating up on GWU, Presbyterian and DII teams does not look good. Losing to KSU, Elon, Towson, Yale, etc does not help the conference.


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[SU DOG]

Certain things would have to fall into place yes, BUT, Samford did get in with only 6 wins two years ago. Seven wins is the expected norm, but not a rule.

[gofurman]

This has been a tough season for Paladin Nation, but I'm gonna take a reasonable shot at putting it in perspective for our fan base.

I was at the game this past Saturday, and after taking a 19-10 lead early in the 2nd half, it was tough to watch Samford take over and run away with the game, especially when much of it was our own undoing. I was also at the Elon game earlier this year, and what a disaster. Enough said on that.

Here's the reality. When CCH came on board just under 2 yrs ago, our program had been driven into the ground over several years (not an excuse, but the truth). Once Hendrix was on board, most of us felt it would be year 3 of his tenure before the Paladins began to show sound improvement and would begin to show consistent championship form. Then, last year, we caught fire and rattled off 7 straight wins, and got as far as the 2nd round of the playoffs. The expectation bar was immediately raised, including mine. Now, this year, we are sitting at 2-4 hoping for a .500 season, and some may be wondering what's going on.

The reality - we are still rebuilding. Hendrix and staff are doing a great job with what they have, and are building for the future. Recruiting is going very well from what I understand, and has been for the past 2 years.

This is not about making excuses. It's also not intended to be a "wait 'til next year" statement (Heaven help us if we ever foster that kind of talk!). Nonetheless, we are not yet a good football team - again, not yet. Remember...this program was in the dumpster just a couple of years ago; now, we are definitely headed in the right direction.

Patience.

This is a great post. We don't have the DEPTH of talent yet. Some places we can't yet afford an injury. Yes, we should have another QB between Harris Roberts and Grainger. A junior or experienced Soph. But Hendrix is in his SECOND year so his recruits are just the FR and Rfr So he has what he has inherited. Some are great players ! Reid, Dirks, Anoor, Okeh, Morehead, Gordon, Kroeber etc.

and many of our best guys are the freshman / true sophomores Hendrix has brought in

But we need to be careful about expectations. I figured 5 wins this year BEFORE we knew Colgate was cancelled. I underestimated Roberts - happy to eat crow on that one. I just saw an OL of all sophomores and one junior and knew that's not a good recipe for early season success

[gofurman]

To quote Annie Savoy in Bull Durham, "This is the damnedest season I've ever seen."

My Power Ranks presented in a bit of a different way this week.

Land of Post Season Hopes and Dreams
Wofford - like a Timex watch, they just keep on ticking
East Tennessee State - SoCon surprise of the year #1
Chattanooga - SoCon surprise #2, really did anyone think they'd turn it around this well?
Samford - SoCon surprise #3, did anyone think they'd have such a bad start?


Land of Lollygaggers and No Defense
Mercer - Can score a lot and give up a lot
The Citadel - Scores a little and gives up a little more
Furman - SoCon Surprise #4 - The all around surprise - Can't really score and gives up a lot
VMI - SoCon Surprise #5 - Can score a bit and gives up a lot more
WCU - SoCon Surprise #6 - We knew the Cats can score but just not show up on defense??? We lands here because VMI coaching baffoonery kept VMI from winning the "no defense allowed" game

I'll refrain from posting predictions because apparently predictions in the SoCon this year are like this Crash Davis quote, "I wouldn't dig in if I was you. Next one might be at your head. I don't know where it's gonna go. Swear to God."

Not sure I buy that. I get your point but ONCE ROBERTS WAS ABLE TO PLAY QB Furman put - 27 on ETSU ... 44 on WCU and ... 34 on Wofford. You do know that Wofford hasn't given up 34 points in TWENTY ONE CONSECUTIVE SOCON GAMES TO ANY OTHER CONFERENCE OPPONENT. Think about that. Put another way,the only TWO teams to score that many points on Woffird since 2015 were South Carolina and North Dakota State !

To,say Furman "can't score " is too macro a statement. 7 against Clemson. Yep. With an 18 year old QB. 7 vs Elon. Yep. Same QB. Roberts comes in we start winning and putting up,points. In bunches. And more importantly, improving week by week. He goes out in first Q vs Samford and we are back to true FR QB. looking at the three games of Roberts... It's an entirely different team

[gofurman]

You will, however, be required to demonstrate statistical knowledge at a PhD level.

Nah. You can be moderately dumb - I got on there. LOLxthumbsupx

[SU DOG]

Furman sure has got one heck of a FG kicker in Grayson Atkins.

[FUBeAR]

Should your petition be approved, it will be forwarded...for processing. This process should take approximately 4 weeks.
+1

[gofurman]

Furman sure has got one heck of a FG kicker in Grayson Atkins.

Thanks. . Cool that he tied the ALL TIME ALL DIVISION NCAA (FBS too) record for FGs made at or over 50 yards in one game. That's a weapon. Three FGs of 50, 51, n 53 yards. Just get to the 35 and we have a decent shot at 3 points.

And a. Sophomore ! That's what we mean that we are so young. If we go 4-4 or whatever in SoCon this year watch out next year and the next. We just need to build depth and let Hendrix coach em up

We are getting back to where we need to be to be a strong team... Such as YT says (even for their rival..lol) it benefits the SoCon for Furman to be strong again

[PaladinFan]

I agree. They will not get an at large bid. I think SoCon will get two teams in this year. Wofford and Chattanooga. The SoCon needs to schedule better teams in OOC games and win. Beating up on GWU, Presbyterian and DII teams does not look good. Losing to KSU, Elon, Towson, Yale, etc does not help the conference.


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Interestingly, the two teams you have in the playoffs didn’t schedule up. They schedule a lot of really winnable FCS games.

[PaladinFan]

It has to be a good feeling to know that your President really WANTS football success. I'm not saying that our President doesn't, but there are plenty out there that are apathetic or ambivalent about football success at their school. That is a sometimes overlooked albatross around the neck of a coach and his football program.

This is just my opinion. I am both a Furman and Mercer alum so I at least claim to have the authority to form some opinions.

Mercer desperately wants to be athletically relevant. It is, as far as I can tell, incredibly important to the university’s president. Again, just my opinion, but I think he wants his legacy at Mercer to be the guy who brought Mercer to the national sports stage.

[Mocs123]

I agree. They will not get an at large bid. I think SoCon will get two teams in this year. Wofford and Chattanooga. The SoCon needs to schedule better teams in OOC games and win. Beating up on GWU, Presbyterian and DII teams does not look good. Losing to KSU, Elon, Towson, Yale, etc does not help the conference.


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I don’t disagree with the statement that the SoCon needs to schedule better. We play a ton of Big South teams (and OVC for Chattanooga) for geographic and logistical reasons, but other than Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State respectively, those conferences are generally not highly regarded. A win over Gardner Webb or Tennessee Tech is not generally a “quality win”.

Chattanooga has a great rivalry with JSU and we play two more times under the current contract. I certainly hope that they extend and continue to play each other. I think it’s a good thing for JSU too as they need a quality win opportunity playing in the OVC.

Wofford, one of the best programs in the SoCon historically plays a weak OOC (usually BS teams) and that hurts, as being one of our better teams they could get some quality wins for the Conference. Samford has played one good OCC opponant and one D2 the past few years - they need to at least schedule another D1 team. Furman has a really nice OCC schedule this year with Elon (which makes geographical sense) and Colgate but Elon took them to the woodshed and Colgate dropped the game over the hurricane (Furman is something like 250 miles from the coast).

Chattanooga ups the ante next year with JSU and JMU. I figure we will have to win one of the two to get an at large bid in a 12 game year.

[PaladinFan]

I don’t disagree with the statement that the SoCon needs to schedule better. We play a ton of Big South teams (and OVC for Chattanooga) for geographic and logistical reasons, but other than Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State respectively, those conferences are generally not highly regarded. A win over Gardner Webb or Tennessee Tech is not generally a “quality win”.

Chattanooga has a great rivalry with JSU and we play two more times under the current contract. I certainly hope that they extend and continue to play each other. I think it’s a good thing for JSU too as they need a quality win opportunity playing in the OVC.

Wofford, one of the best programs in the SoCon historically plays a weak OOC (usually BS teams) and that hurts, as being one of our better teams they could get some quality wins for the Conference. Samford has played one good OCC opponant and one D2 the past few years - they need to at least schedule another D1 team. Furman has a really nice OCC schedule this year with Elon (which makes geographical sense) and Colgate but Elon took them to the woodshed and Colgate dropped the game over the hurricane (Furman is something like 250 miles from the coast).

Chattanooga ups the ante next year with JSU and JMU. I figure we will have to win one of the two to get an at large bid in a 12 game year.

I will be mildly annoyed, by the way, if Colgate, who is all but a lock to go at least 9-1, is in the playoffs while a 6-4 Furman sits home. A 7-4 Furman team with a win over 9-2 Colgate would be a nice feather for the playoff committee to consider.

Again, I don't know if we would have beaten Colgate. I expect we would have. Every time we play them we are told they are a scrappy technically sound team, and then we beat the crap out of them with superior athletes.

[SU DOG]

I don’t disagree with the statement that the SoCon needs to schedule better. We play a ton of Big South teams (and OVC for Chattanooga) for geographic and logistical reasons, but other than Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State respectively, those conferences are generally not highly regarded. A win over Gardner Webb or Tennessee Tech is not generally a “quality win”.

Chattanooga has a great rivalry with JSU and we play two more times under the current contract. I certainly hope that they extend and continue to play each other. I think it’s a good thing for JSU too as they need a quality win opportunity playing in the OVC.

Wofford, one of the best programs in the SoCon historically plays a weak OOC (usually BS teams) and that hurts, as being one of our better teams they could get some quality wins for the Conference. Samford has played one good OCC opponant and one D2 the past few years - they need to at least schedule another D1 team. Furman has a really nice OCC schedule this year with Elon (which makes geographical sense) and Colgate but Elon took them to the woodshed and Colgate dropped the game over the hurricane (Furman is something like 250 miles from the coast).

Chattanooga ups the ante next year with JSU and JMU. I figure we will have to win one of the two to get an at large bid in a 12 game year.

Let's not forget that Samford opens up with Youngstown State next year. If KSU is on the schedule again, then this is certainly better OOC opponents than maybe any SoCon team can claim.

[PaladinFan]

Let's not forget that Samford opens up with Youngstown State next year. If KSU is on the schedule again, then this is certainly better OOC opponents than maybe any SoCon team can claim.

It looks like Samford has Youngstown and Auburn next year. They play Kennesaw against in 2020 and then 2022.

If they are true to form, they will fill out their non-conference slate with Kumquat High School from Dadeville.

[PaladinFan]

Also, next season will be another 12 game season year.

Furman has VT and Georgia State. I guess we will fill in with two other non-conference teams.

[FUBeAR]

This is just my opinion. I am both a Furman and Mercer alum so I at least claim to have the authority to form some opinions.

Mercer desperately wants to be athletically relevant. It is, as far as I can tell, incredibly important to the university’s president. Again, just my opinion, but I think he wants his legacy at Mercer to be the guy who brought Mercer to the national sports stage.

”...desperately....” Such an interesting word choice when “passionately” would be so much more accurate.

“...WANTS TO BE athletically relevant” (emphasis added) certainly carries the connotation that Mercer is not now “athletically relevant.” Whether or not Mercer is currently “athletically relevant” is certainly open to debate, but whether they are any less “athletically relevant” than any other SoCon school is not.

Further, your opinion, which so ridiculously narrow-casts President Underwood’s personal legacy aspirations, is patently outlandish. It simply flies in the face of the so numerous and diverse tangible accomplishments at Mercer under his leadership. I won’t subject the readers of this board to the entire list, but we can start with Mercer’s major impact in the ongoing redevelopment of Macon, Georgia and continue with increasing enrollment over 20% while significantly increasing SAT/ACT & GPA numbers. He has also led to a doubling in Mercer’s endowment, while adding additional Med School campuses in Savannah & Columbus. Yep - and he brought back Football too, among the many, many other accomplishments that will ALL be part of the legacy he leaves behind at Mercer when he decides to move on or hang up his cowl.

[Shaking my head emoji here]

[SU DOG]

It looks like Samford has Youngstown and Auburn next year. They play Kennesaw against in 2020 and then 2022.

If they are true to form, they will fill out their non-conference slate with Kumquat High School from Dadeville.

So, no kudos for us playing a MVFC team, just a snide uncalled for ugly comment.

[PaladinFan]

So, no kudos for us playing a MVFC team, just a snide uncalled for ugly comment.

You are only upset because you know it is going to happen :)

[Reign of Terrier]

Interestingly, the two teams you have in the playoffs didn’t schedule up. They schedule a lot of really winnable FCS games.

My personal hypothesis is that the committee cares as much about a capricious combination of D1 wins, SOS, and name recognition. EWU not getting into the playoffs last year while South Dakota getting in should invalidate anyone believing they know exactly what the committee will on those marginal, at-large teams.

Heck, Samford getting in in 2016 should invalidate any and all prognostication, especially when the socon was relatively weak in 2015.

ETSU gets in at 8 wins, especially if Chattanooga has 8 wins. Book it.

I don’t disagree with the statement that the SoCon needs to schedule better. We play a ton of Big South teams (and OVC for Chattanooga) for geographic and logistical reasons, but other than Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State respectively, those conferences are generally not highly regarded. A win over Gardner Webb or Tennessee Tech is not generally a “quality win”.

Chattanooga has a great rivalry with JSU and we play two more times under the current contract. I certainly hope that they extend and continue to play each other. I think it’s a good thing for JSU too as they need a quality win opportunity playing in the OVC.

Wofford, one of the best programs in the SoCon historically plays a weak OOC (usually BS teams) and that hurts, as being one of our better teams they could get some quality wins for the Conference. Samford has played one good OCC opponant and one D2 the past few years - they need to at least schedule another D1 team. Furman has a really nice OCC schedule this year with Elon (which makes geographical sense) and Colgate but Elon took them to the woodshed and Colgate dropped the game over the hurricane (Furman is something like 250 miles from the coast).

Chattanooga ups the ante next year with JSU and JMU. I figure we will have to win one of the two to get an at large bid in a 12 game year. The problem is geography and budgeting and doing things years in advance. The Tennessee and Alabama teams are probably better located to play a quality OOC than the SC teams are. Meanwhile, Wofford's scheduling is all budget. We do a money game, a local game, and a random other game, usually a Big South team for logistical reasons. And the Big South is a roulette game because the best team may today may not be the best team in 4 years when you schedule them. Like, I'm pretty sure Wofford scheduled Gardner Webb because we lost 2 straight to them.

Meanwhile, Wofford has Kennesaw State on the schedule in 2020 and 2021 (I think). There's really not that many quality/consistent OOC for the SC schools within driving range. I know some of the MVFC and Big Sky schools boast about their schedule, but I'm pretty sure they have to fly for many of their games anyway, so the margins are a bit different


I will be mildly annoyed, by the way, if Colgate, who is all but a lock to go at least 9-1, is in the playoffs while a 6-4 Furman sits home. A 7-4 Furman team with a win over 9-2 Colgate would be a nice feather for the playoff committee to consider.

Again, I don't know if we would have beaten Colgate. I expect we would have. Every time we play them we are told they are a scrappy technically sound team, and then we beat the crap out of them with superior athletes. Colgate is an enigma. Part of it is really good defense, part of it is playing garbage offenses.


It looks like Samford has Youngstown and Auburn next year. They play Kennesaw against in 2020 and then 2022.

If they are true to form, they will fill out their non-conference slate with Kumquat High School from Dadeville.

Wofford plays Kennesaw as well, I think all parties would benefit if they just joined.

[PaladinFan]

I would very much be in favor of Kennesaw or Jacksonville State joining the SoCon. I presume there are valid reasons why they haven't. I always assumed it was because JSU had FBS aspirations (I imagine KSU does), but that seems less likely now.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Kennesaw, JSU and one other team in North Carolina/Virginia (Richmond, William and Mary, maybe even Campbell or Charleston Southern) joining the Socon would be best for the conference in terms of our competitiveness at this level. We could have two "divisions" divided on east/west that schedule regularly with rotating interdivisional games. It probably won't happen. I'd put money on Richmond/W&M joining before JSU because they will probably change conferences once JMU moves up. They're probably worse outliers in the CAA without JMU than they would be in a hypothetical socon.

[The Cats]

It has to be a good feeling to know that your President really WANTS football success.

Western Carolina's last chancellor was a great cheerleader for football & basketball, and he wanted championships but was not willing to fund the athletic programs at Western Carolina beyond a level that keeps the WCU athletic budget in the last place in the conference. That, however, is nothing new at WCU, we've never had an administration that was willing to go "all in" for athletics, not even after the national championship run by Bob Waters back in '83 when the Cats made it to the national championship game. Unfortunately, things don't look promising for anything to change in the near future.

[gofurman]

Western Carolina's last chancellor was a great cheerleader for football & basketball, and he wanted championships but was not willing to fund the athletic programs at Western Carolina beyond a level that keeps the WCU athletic budget in the last place in the conference. That, however, is nothing new at WCU, we've never had an administration that was willing to go "all in" for athletics, not even after the national championship run by Bob Waters back in '83 when the Cats made it to the national championship game. Unfortunately, things don't look promising for anything to change in the near future.

The Cats, I hear you. NOTHING will prevent success (overall long-term success) as much as lack of support from the top. That is the worst thing possible. We had that at Furman for a while - Bobby lamb years as FUBeAR alluded to - and it killed us. Without a strong recruiting budget, etc you are hamstrung.

Hate that as, while I want Us to beat you xnodx, we all need a good WCU team for the SoCon to nationally prominent !

[SU DOG]

I think Kennesaw, JSU and one other team in North Carolina/Virginia (Richmond, William and Mary, maybe even Campbell or Charleston Southern) joining the Socon would be best for the conference in terms of our competitiveness at this level. We could have two "divisions" divided on east/west that schedule regularly with rotating interdivisional games. It probably won't happen. I'd put money on Richmond/W&M joining before JSU because they will probably change conferences once JMU moves up. They're probably worse outliers in the CAA without JMU than they would be in a hypothetical socon.

While you make some good points, I would hope that the SoCon doesn't completely overload with small privates. I have always been in favor of JSU joining and I also would not be opposed to Kennesaw State getting in. I don't think either of those 2 schools are anywhere close to going FBS. Then we could look at the privates. Interesting that you mentioned Campbell. That would be a way better choice than CSU. Campbell is exploding athletically with facilities and numerous upgrades.

[gofurman]

Colgate is an enigma. Part of it is really good defense, part of it is playing garbage offenses.


Colgate just can't handle the SoCon / Furman - Last three scores including 2017 IN NEW YORK-


2008 in New York at Colgate. 42-21 Furman Win
2010. In Greenville at Furman . 45-15. Furman Win
2017 in New York at Colgate. 45-14 Furman Win. It was a killing

[gofurman]

Here are some general, uncontroversial conclusions we can draw from the Socon, ordered from obvious to the more nuanced:

1) Western Carolina's defense is bad
2) VMI is improved
3) Furman is a different team when Roberts is at QB
4) ETSU's defense is for real
5) we don't know enough about Mercer
6) Citadel will likely compete with any/everybody
7) Chattanooga may not jump out at you, but they are competing for a playoff spot
8) Samford is still dangerous
9) For better or worse, Wofford is about the same they were last year

.

EXACTLY. And IF he can't go this week and/or next well, it is just frustrating - I am sure Wofford fans were seriously frustrated a few years back when half their team was on crutches. :(

Roberts doesn't fumble, doesn't make mistakes etc. he manages the team extremely well. We WERE getting scary with him at QB. his three starts?
After scoring a mere SEVEN on both Clemson and Elon w other QBs...

Roberts comes in from his thumb injury to do this. ---
27-29 loss AT ETSU
44-38 win over WCU
34-14 win over top 5 Wofford (w great option Defense)

then he he goes down early vs Samford and we have to settle for 50 yd FGs

the problem becomes IF Roberts can't go(?) - maybe he is 100%, I don't know, ... Then our O struggles and our good option Defense could wear down vs Citadel. It isn't just O or just D as we all know. It all works together. And we do have a GREAT option defense w Staggs as DC from Charleston Southern. He specifically knows Citadel

we beat Citadel 56-20 last year but I fear IF Roberts can't go things could take a bad turn.

i do believe we have a STRONG option defense - the issue is. We need to keep them rested and score some if Roberts isn't playing

(All that said I think Grainger will be a very good QB in a year or so! You can see the athleticism and accuracy already ! Just needs to learn.

As PaladinFan said Grainger only played ONE year of high school QB ! He really just doesn't have any experience. Even most true FR QBs at least have three years of High School QB experience)

[Mocs123]

Kudos to Wofford for playing KSU and Samford for playing Youngstown. KSU is a quality team (Wofford should be able to defend the option :) ) and Youngstown is from the MVFC - a conference we don't play much.

[Reign of Terrier]

While you make some good points, I would hope that the SoCon doesn't completely overload with small privates. I have always been in favor of JSU joining and I also would not be opposed to Kennesaw State getting in. I don't think either of those 2 schools are anywhere close to going FBS. Then we could look at the privates. Interesting that you mentioned Campbell. That would be a way better choice than CSU. Campbell is exploding athletically with facilities and numerous upgrades.The reason I mention Campbell is because they bring the NC market, particularly the area closest to the research triangle (like Elon did). They bring more to the table than Charleston Southern. Socon has enough SC teams

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Kudos to Wofford for playing KSU and Samford for playing Youngstown. KSU is a quality team (Wofford should be able to defend the option :) ) and Youngstown is from the MVFC - a conference we don't play much.

Hey, we should get some kudos as well. Our OOC next year is Elon, Towson, CSU, GaTech. Not too shabby.

[Mocs123]

Hey, we should get some kudos as well. Our OOC next year is Elon, Towson, CSU, GaTech. Not too shabby.

That is a good OOC schedule. It sounds like the SoCon will have the opportunity for some real quality wins next year with JMU, JSU, KSU, YSU, Elon, CSU, and Townson on the OOC schedule.

[Reign of Terrier]

Something I just noticed: there are so many games this year that were settled by one score or less.

The citadel lost 3 games settled by 1 score
Wofford lost 1
Furman lost 1
VMI lost 3
Samford 2
Mercer 2
Chattanooga 1

If you extend that margin to 2 scores, which isn't a blowout by any means, the games lost by that score or less grow
Chatt 2
Furman 2
VMI 4
Citadel 3
ETSU 1
Mercer 2
Samford 3
Western 2

If you take out VMI and Western Carolina, the only in-conference games settled by double digits involve Furman or Wofford
Wofford 30 ETSU 17
Wofford 21 chatt 10
Furman 34 Wofford 14
Samford 38 Furman 25

Things are very close in the socon this year among the top 7. Very ironic that wofford has the two biggest wins and the biggest loss.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[gofurman]

Hey, we should get some kudos as well. Our OOC next year is Elon, Towson, CSU, GaTech. Not too shabby.

Ill give you kudos for that. That is a legit OOC schedule!

Now just don't beat me up TOO BAD on here when you beat us with our true FR QB on Saturday xdrunkyx ... A true FR who only played one year of QB in High School ! Man, that scares me as to making pitches and fumbles. And honestly just wrong reads that go unnoticed - where a 10 yard gain is only a 2 yard gain because he follows the wrong block or doesn't pitch accurately etc. those things KILL DRIVES and wear out the defense

besides. I think karma is a b*tch. Furman is coming up fast. Next year we could be STRONG. Heck, the Terriers got a glimpse of what our coaches can get out of these players in the 34-14 whoopin. Give it 2/3 more years where Hendrix is workin that OLine like old times

i saw Furman is currently ranked 7th NATIONALLY in recruiting for FCS. Though FCS recruiting is a lil bit of a crapshoot I admit. Still it means something

[gofurman]

Thought some of might like this - best if all SoCon schools recruit well: So far 4 SoCon schools in top 25. Again, I know FCS recruiting is a tough thing to judge. But these lists are something...

Hero Sports just put out their Top 25 Recruiting Classes as of October.
https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-recruiting-classes-national-top-25-oct-2018-ajaj


If you want the story quick…
Furman ranked #7
Richmond #9
Elon #14
Wofford #16
Mercer #17
Chattanooga just outside the top twenty-five.


JMU and NDSU are ranked #2nd and #3rd.

-------------------------------

The tough thing is if you do have great recruiting its at least 2/3 years to see the effect ... These guys in the link get to school next year in 2019. If they redshirt that's 2020 as a r-FR and 2021 before I consider them really players as r-Sophomores.

Though it depends on position. Age/ strength / experience helps everyone but I think QB and OL really need the most experience. WRs and RBs can probably make it work the youngest as FR or Sophomore. I mean a sophomore Kelvyn McKnight is a weapon.

DL and LB need at least a year or two for size and understanding. Dangerous to have a true FR CB.

[Reign of Terrier]

I take those things with a grain of salt because I don't think Holy Cross outrecruits socon teams

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[gofurman]

I take those things with a grain of salt because I don't think Holy Cross outrecruits socon teams

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Agree. And part of it is a system thing. Like Wofford may not really want the largest OL. Neither do we. But since they look at FBS offers etc it is worth a little

[FUBeAR]

PowerPoll & Pick'em time again...already? Getting harder instead of easier...that ain't right!

Still gonna call 'em like I see 'em this week....

PowerPoll

1) Mercer - Wow - hard to do this after watching their D give up 2,798 yards against WCU...something like that. But I see an O that is starting to really gel with an Offensive Line that is improving, WR's with talents that rival Samford's crew (3 in the Top 10 yds/catch (#1, #5, #7), 2 RB's that are leading the Conference (#1 & #2 Conf. only stats), an All-SoCon TE that is finally healthy (Top Mercer Recvr vs. WCU), and a Starting/Back-Up/Starting QB who seemed to decide to just play ball loose & free...after a horrendous turnover that led to a scoop & score @ Yale & is now leading the SoCon in Pass Effic., Yds/Att. & Yds/Comp....all led by a new OC that seems to find the opponents’ weaknesses and exploit them. On their D...I don't know...I watch them fly around, hustle, and tackle well (except @ Memphis) just like last year, but they just seem to be a hair shy of making a play and getting off the field on 3rd/4th down...and then there have been a few mental busts in the secondary. They are playing A LOT of people over there though and they did get 2 key guys back from injury to play some last week...so, I'm just expecting them to gel as well...at some point this year. Also Special Teams - minus a KOR vs. CIT have been solid to great. If they stink it up in SparkleCity...I'll drop 'em...but I got a feeling they just might do OK. BTW - Just did a little Schedule Analysis / Math...and I find that Mercer still has to play 4 1-2 loss Teams, while the other 5 1-2 loss Teams only have to play 2 other 1-2 loss Teams each...so, tough 'finishing holes' for the Bears...BTW2 - I also concluded that a 4-way tie between Woffy, ETSU, Sammy, AND Chatt OR Furman - all at 6-2 is possible. There are probably other such scenarios as well.

2) Samford - The boys are back. With the re-emergence of Ahmad Gooden this past week (FUBeAR said on the FU Board that he was gonna have to "go some" if he was gonna be SoCon DPOY this year...and he sure did), I think Sammy's troubles on D will start to fade as their young guys in the back end get some more experience. The O can cook, of course.

3) Wofford - Was at the FU game and just watched their game with ETSU. They do what they do well, but I certainly wasn't impressed by their performance at FU and the game with ETSU seemed kind of 'meh' to me, other than the increased productivity of the DL. If the DL wreaks havoc on Mercer's O-Line this week, the Bears will not win. Otherwise, I think the Bears have enough weapons to score & I'm hoping the D will just find that something/something they've been missing to get it done. The loss of Woffy's Punter/Placekicker could hurt them this week and down the stretch. Also, Morgan, their starting RB (#4 Rusher / #1 Receiver) may be out this week...or more. They have some good ones behind him in the kennel, but his versatility and experience would certainly help vs. Mercer & Samford.

4) Chatt - I just think they have enough for a solid stretch run. It won't be easy or very artistic, but they are pretty good.

5) ETSU - not much separation between 4-7 - but I didn't see a lot to like in their effort vs. Woffy. Wonder if they are tiring or feeling some pressure in the 'air' that they haven't been in before.

6) Furman - Just thinking Roberts may be out a week or 2...and the Paladins struggle on O without him in there. With GREAT Coaching they may be able to figure it out and rise back up.

7) CIT - Like what their Defensive Front has been doing, but I haven't watched the VMI game. Just not their year...other than 1 day in Macon.

8) VMI - with their continued close games, I gotta give them a slight edge over the Catamounts

9) WCU - Tyrie Adams, a healthy Tyrie Adams, shouldn't be sitting down here because he's an amazing talent (an opinion from which I have never wavered, BTW). But that D continues to be GOLDEN for each of their Opponents - add in the Special Teams and they are Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanza all rolled up into one. Surprisingly, I think their Defensive players have played harder recently than what I saw vs. Furman, but they just aren't very good OR they are the most unprepared Defense that has ever taken a college football field. I have a surprise below though....


Pick 'em - Week 9 Games

Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Mercer goes into SparkleCity and steals back one of the 2 that the RatDogs have stolen in Macon (1 point wins in 2015 & 2017). Bears win 31-28 on a 'walk-off' Field Goal in overtime.

Furman @ The Citadel - Furman sputters a bit on O, but Coach Staggs still has the bellhops’ number and shuts down their Offense cold. Paladins win it. 21-3

VMI @ Chattanooga - VMI is looking ahead to Tusculum. They still put up a good fight, but they fall again. Mocs win it 42-28

Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Adams is WELL and Mercer wasn't able to get the clean shots on him that FU, Sammy, and Chatt did. ETSU won't either. I don't think ETSU's O is quite creative enough to cause WCU's D to assume a fetal position as they did against Mercer and Samford, so the Catamounts have a chance...and they capitalize on it...and UPSET the Bucs - 45-42.

[ElCid]

Ill give you kudos for that. That is a legit OOC schedule!

Now just don't beat me up TOO BAD on here when you beat us with our true FR QB on Saturday xdrunkyx ... A true FR who only played one year of QB in High School ! Man, that scares me as to making pitches and fumbles. And honestly just wrong reads that go unnoticed - where a 10 yard gain is only a 2 yard gain because he follows the wrong block or doesn't pitch accurately etc. those things KILL DRIVES and wear out the defense

besides. I think karma is a b*tch. Furman is coming up fast. Next year we could be STRONG. Heck, the Terriers got a glimpse of what our coaches can get out of these players in the 34-14 whoopin. Give it 2/3 more years where Hendrix is workin that OLine like old times

i saw Furman is currently ranked 7th NATIONALLY in recruiting for FCS. Though FCS recruiting is a lil bit of a crapshoot I admit. Still it means something

I think we will be much better next year as well. Like we won a bunch of close ones in 16, we lost a bunch of close ones this year. We are close. And we really haven't executed very well this year. We clean that up with another year of experience, watch out.

[PaladinFan]

I think we will be much better next year as well. Like we won a bunch of close ones in 16, we lost a bunch of close ones this year. We are close. And we really haven't executed very well this year. We clean that up with another year of experience, watch out.

If Roberts is a no-go, I'm not terribly enthusiastic about Furman's chances this weekend. The offense has ground to a standstill without him.

I do really like Furman's three young running backs, and if the Citadel goes back to their bad habits of trying to knock over the ball carrier instead of tackling them, you could see a big day from the Paladin ground game.

[FUBeAR]

If Roberts is a no-go, I'm not terribly enthusiastic about Furman's chances this weekend. The offense has ground to a standstill without him.

I do really like Furman's three young running backs, and if the Citadel goes back to their bad habits of trying to knock over the ball carrier instead of tackling them, you could see a big day from the Paladin ground game.From what I’ve seen, CIT’s D is winning a lot of plays with exceptional Defensive penetration - by DLmen & LB’s. They are being very disruptive to Offenses’ Run & Pass games with that approach. Everything else they do on D is just OK, but that 1 thing is really working well for them. If FU’s young (but good & improving) OLine can keep CIT’s “Free Runners” (unblocked Defensive Players) to a minimum, I think they’ll be OK on O, regardless of the QB. If not, AND FU has to play a FR QB, it could go rather badly. I have confidence in Coach Hendrix & Coach Lusk to recognize this ‘issue’ and take appropriate measures to deal with it. I saw 1 Team that did not...and it cost them a ball game...and the opportunity to currently be alone at the top of the SoCon....and a Starting QB.

[ElCid]

From what I’ve seen, CIT’s D is winning a lot of plays with exceptional Defensive penetration - by DLmen & LB’s. They are being very disruptive to Offenses’ Run & Pass games with that approach. Everything else they do on D is just OK, but that 1 thing is really working well for them. If FU’s young (but good & improving) OLine can keep CIT’s “Free Runners” (unblocked Defensive Players) to a minimum, I think they’ll be OK on O, regardless of the QB. If not, AND FU has to play a FR QB, it could go rather badly. I have confidence in Coach Hendrix & Coach Lusk to recognize this ‘issue’ and take appropriate measures to deal with it. I saw 1 Team that did not...and it cost them a ball game...and the opportunity to currently be alone at the top of the SoCon.

Yup, but sometimes we are too aggressive and overrun the play. It's sometimes a gamble. I like aggressive though.

[FUBeAR]

Yup, but sometimes we are too aggressive and overrun the play. It's sometimes a gamble. I like aggressive though.
Exactly.

Counters, traps, draws, and screens are the ‘medicine’ you have to give to a D that allows itself to create seams by over-penetrating - creates a picket-fence effect which can be exploited vs. a sound gap-control strategy with occasional risk-taking to keep the O off-balance.

If you only run Inside & Outside Zone with an O-Line that is young and/or not communicating and/or not working together well on combo blocks, that D is going to make you PAY. It’s not the soundest of strategies for a D, but it can be rather effective for a young, aggressive, and, perhaps, a bit of an undersized one.

[PaladinFan]

Exactly.

Counters, traps, draws, and screens are the ‘medicine’ you have to give to a D that allows itself to create seams by over-penetrating - creates a picket-fence effect which can be exploited vs. a sound gap-control strategy with occasional risk-taking to keep the O off-balance.

If you only run Inside & Outside Zone with an O-Line that is young and/or not communicating and/or not working together well on combo blocks, that D is going to make you PAY. It’s not the soundest of strategies for a D, but it can be rather effective for a young, aggressive, and, perhaps, a bit of an undersized one.

One thing I have not yet seen from Furman that I absolutely expected to is much in the screen game. Seems like that's almost a nonbrainer for a team with a young QB, good RBs in space, and an athletic offensive line.

[wcugrad95]

Something I just noticed: there are so many games this year that were settled by one score or less.

The citadel lost 3 games settled by 1 score
Wofford lost 1
Furman lost 1
VMI lost 3
Samford 2
Mercer 2
Chattanooga 1

If you extend that margin to 2 scores, which isn't a blowout by any means, the games lost by that score or less grow
Chatt 2
Furman 2
VMI 4
Citadel 3
ETSU 1
Mercer 2
Samford 3
Western 2

If you take out VMI and Western Carolina, the only in-conference games settled by double digits involve Furman or Wofford
Wofford 30 ETSU 17
Wofford 21 chatt 10
Furman 34 Wofford 14
Samford 38 Furman 25

Things are very close in the socon this year among the top 7. Very ironic that wofford has the two biggest wins and the biggest loss.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

You looked at Citadel as the losers of close games, but take a look at ETSU. A team that was in sole possession of 1st place last week, and now is tied for 1st has 4 SoCon wins by a TOTAL of 11 points (no win is bigger than 3 points) and 1 SoCon loss last weekend by 13. So they are 4-1 in conference and have actually given up MORE points than they have scored.

[sudog03]

It looks like Samford has Youngstown and Auburn next year. They play Kennesaw against in 2020 and then 2022.

If they are true to form, they will fill out their non-conference slate with Kumquat High School from Dadeville.

Kumquat would finish 2nd in the Pioneer and Big South, probably 4th in the OVC.

[wcugrad95]

And I am not sure about Samford financially, but when a school like WCU schedules a game (or 2) against big-time FBS schools we basically HAVE to offset that with a game against a school that guarantees a home game (i.e. a D2). So I don't see Western's schedule veering too far from at least one big FBS game, a geographically lower expense home-and-home series with somebody from the Big South, and a guaranteed home game against the Pioneer or D2 level. We financially can't stray from that. Oh - and you might ask about the 12 game seasons. Those are almost always going to include a second big-time FBS team (again for the $$$$s). Some seasons, we even play two FBS teams in an 11-game schedule (2015 saw Tennessee and Texas A&M and a 7-4 season that did NOT get us into the playoffs).

[Reign of Terrier]

You looked at Citadel as the losers of close games, but take a look at ETSU. A team that was in sole possession of 1st place last week, and now is tied for 1st has 4 SoCon wins by a TOTAL of 11 points (no win is bigger than 3 points) and 1 SoCon loss last weekend by 13. So they are 4-1 in conference and have actually given up MORE points than they have scored.Wofford was the same way last year. That's why I'm not as skeptical about ETSU as others are. The socon is really close (and has been for the last couple of years) so it's best to predict competitiveness than not. And before Samford fans complain about that, I put more skepticism on the 'dogs because I hold them to a higher standard for now.

I know ETSU has won some close ones, but the point of the post is that the standings could be radical different if less than 7 plays or so go differently in many of these games

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[sudog03]

ETSU has run the fewest plays per game, using league games only. When your strategy is to shorten games and limit plays, it's going to lend itself to closer margins.

[PaladinFan]

Furman game release for the Citadel game (http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/releases/20181024gci325) had this interesting tidbit.


While it remains to be seen who will get the starting nod at quarterback for Furman on Saturday . . .

Furman, also interestingly, has not released its game notes or depth chart for the Citadel contest, which they typically do on Tuesdays.

[wcugrad95]

I agree that it is close right now. But 7 plays going differently is a LOT. That could mean the entire standings would be upside down in probably most leagues across the country. You discounted VMI, but they have 3 conference losses of 3 points or less. The plays are the plays - just about every week most teams could argue the game ***coulda*** been different without this penalty, or that turnover, or that injury, etc. Since I know all of Western's games, they ***coulda*** beat Furman without 2 redzone turnovers, or they ***coulda*** maybe beat Mercer if they don't give up a KO return TD and don't turn the ball over on the 2 yard line, or they tackle ANYBODY on a couple of plays, etc. But in reality, those plays did happen and I don't honestly think in the end WCU should have or deservied to win those 2 games.

My point is that is a lot of "coulda" if you are saying a handful of plays go the other way. If my team returns 7 INTs for TDs I am probably going to win!

As for ETSU, my point is they have looked very Wofford-ish from last year so far, but they still have to play 3 of the more potent offenses (I throw WCU in there with a healthy Adams back). I am not going to be surprised at all if they lose 2 of the 3 and finish 5-3 in league play. But I won't be surprised if they win 2-of-3 and finish 6-2. I honestly don't think the SoCon gets more than 2 teams in this year, and what might be the WORST scenario is for us to wind up with 4 teams at 6-2. We would stand a better shot if we have 2 teams at 7-1 who would both get in and then maybe a 6-2 third place team that has at least 7 wins would also get invited.

[ElCid]

Furman game release for the Citadel game (http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/releases/20181024gci325) had this interesting tidbit.



Furman, also interestingly, has not released its game notes or depth chart for the Citadel contest, which they typically do on Tuesdays.

Some gamesmanship most likely. Keep us guessing.

[Milktruck74]

PowerPoll & Pick'em time again...already? Getting harder instead of easier...that ain't right!

Still gonna call 'em like I see 'em this week....

PowerPoll

1) Mercer - Wow - hard to do this after watching their D give up 2,798 yards against WCU...something like that. But I see an O that is starting to really gel with an Offensive Line that is improving, WR's with talents that rival Samford's crew (3 in the Top 10 yds/catch (#1, #5, #7), 2 RB's that are leading the Conference (#1 & #2 Conf. only stats), an All-SoCon TE that is finally healthy (Top Mercer Recvr vs. WCU), and a Starting/Back-Up/Starting QB who seemed to decide to just play ball loose & free...after a horrendous turnover that led to a scoop & score @ Yale & is now leading the SoCon in Pass Effic., Yds/Att. & Yds/Comp....all led by a new OC that seems to find the opponents’ weaknesses and exploit them. On their D...I don't know...I watch them fly around, hustle, and tackle well (except @ Memphis) just like last year, but they just seem to be a hair shy of making a play and getting off the field on 3rd/4th down...and then there have been a few mental busts in the secondary. They are playing A LOT of people over there though and they did get 2 key guys back from injury to play some last week...so, I'm just expecting them to gel as well...at some point this year. Also Special Teams - minus a KOR vs. CIT have been solid to great. If they stink it up in SparkleCity...I'll drop 'em...but I got a feeling they just might do OK. BTW - Just did a little Schedule Analysis / Math...and I find that Mercer still has to play 4 1-2 loss Teams, while the other 5 1-2 loss Teams only have to play 2 other 1-2 loss Teams each...so, tough 'finishing holes' for the Bears...BTW2 - I also concluded that a 4-way tie between Woffy, ETSU, Sammy, AND Chatt OR Furman - all at 6-2 is possible. There are probably other such scenarios as well.

2) Samford - The boys are back. With the re-emergence of Ahmad Gooden this past week (FUBeAR said on the FU Board that he was gonna have to "go some" if he was gonna be SoCon DPOY this year...and he sure did), I think Sammy's troubles on D will start to fade as their young guys in the back end get some more experience. The O can cook, of course.

3) Wofford - Was at the FU game and just watched their game with ETSU. They do what they do well, but I certainly wasn't impressed by their performance at FU and the game with ETSU seemed kind of 'meh' to me, other than the increased productivity of the DL. If the DL wreaks havoc on Mercer's O-Line this week, the Bears will not win. Otherwise, I think the Bears have enough weapons to score & I'm hoping the D will just find that something/something they've been missing to get it done. The loss of Woffy's Punter/Placekicker could hurt them this week and down the stretch. Also, Morgan, their starting RB (#4 Rusher / #1 Receiver) may be out this week...or more. They have some good ones behind him in the kennel, but his versatility and experience would certainly help vs. Mercer & Samford.

4) Chatt - I just think they have enough for a solid stretch run. It won't be easy or very artistic, but they are pretty good.

5) ETSU - not much separation between 4-7 - but I didn't see a lot to like in their effort vs. Woffy. Wonder if they are tiring or feeling some pressure in the 'air' that they haven't been in before.

6) Furman - Just thinking Roberts may be out a week or 2...and the Paladins struggle on O without him in there. With GREAT Coaching they may be able to figure it out and rise back up.

7) CIT - Like what their Defensive Front has been doing, but I haven't watched the VMI game. Just not their year...other than 1 day in Macon.

8) VMI - with their continued close games, I gotta give them a slight edge over the Catamounts

9) WCU - Tyrie Adams, a healthy Tyrie Adams, shouldn't be sitting down here because he's an amazing talent (an opinion from which I have never wavered, BTW). But that D continues to be GOLDEN for each of their Opponents - add in the Special Teams and they are Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanza all rolled up into one. Surprisingly, I think their Defensive players have played harder recently than what I saw vs. Furman, but they just aren't very good OR they are the most unprepared Defense that has ever taken a college football field. I have a surprise below though....


Pick 'em - Week 9 Games

Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Mercer goes into SparkleCity and steals back one of the 2 that the RatDogs have stolen in Macon (1 point wins in 2015 & 2017). Bears win 31-28 on a 'walk-off' Field Goal in overtime.

Furman @ The Citadel - Furman sputters a bit on O, but Coach Staggs still has the bellhops’ number and shuts down their Offense cold. Paladins win it. 21-3

VMI @ Chattanooga - VMI is looking ahead to Tusculum. They still put up a good fight, but they fall again. Mocs win it 42-28

Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Adams is WELL and Mercer wasn't able to get the clean shots on him that FU, Sammy, and Chatt did. ETSU won't either. I don't think ETSU's O is quite creative enough to cause WCU's D to assume a fetal position as they did against Mercer and Samford, so the Catamounts have a chance...and they capitalize on it...and UPSET the Bucs - 45-42.


While Saturday night may prove that you are the smartest guy in the room....on Wednesday, I think you need to put down the pipe....that kinda thinking means you probably should avoid opperating any type of motor vehicle or heavy equipment!!!

[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU has run the fewest plays per game, using league games only. When your strategy is to shorten games and limit plays, it's going to lend itself to closer margins.

Yep. That was Wofford's strategy last year. It looks like Coach Conklin is changing that ever so slightly. If you look in conference, Furman and the Citadel probably incorporate that strategy.

Meanwhile, Samford, Western, and VMI have the opposite approach.

SoCon has a diverse array of strategies. It's interesting to watch.

[PaladinFan]

Some gamesmanship most likely. Keep us guessing.

Probably.

I haven't seen anything on the extent of Roberts injury. I'd bet that when the publish the depth chart it will have "OR" by a few of the QBs and be noncommittal on whether Roberts will play.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Wofford right now is still the favorite for the autobid and to win against Mercer, but if I'm honest I don't know what to expect against Mercer. In that respect, the game is huge.

It could go anything from Wofford winning 20-6 (or something like that) to losing 44-10 (though I don't think that one will happen).

The best, most consistent offenses on Wofford's regular season schedule are going to be in the next 3 games. Mercer is the one most equipped to replicate what Furman did, but I don't know if they have the defense to slow us down. Mercer should have beaten us last year, but at the same time, they play much better at home than on the road.

[PaladinFan]

Yep. That was Wofford's strategy last year. It looks like Coach Conklin is changing that ever so slightly. If you look in conference, Furman and the Citadel probably incorporate that strategy.

Meanwhile, Samford, Western, and VMI have the opposite approach.

SoCon has a diverse array of strategies. It's interesting to watch.

Furman is probably somewhere in between. They are one of those "no huddle" teams that doesn't operate at a faster pace.

We tried to slow the game down against Samford, but that plan backfired after we struggled to stay on the field in the second half.

[Milktruck74]

I'm coming in Late on the OOC scheduling convo....but a thought to keep in mind, is a team may be really good at the time of scheduling, and suck 3 years later...or vice versa. Just looking at UT Martin at 1-6 this season...they were 7-5 in 2016 when we scheduled them...not a great record, but they did have wins over ranked teams that year.....and now.....they suck. At our level, 2 years can make a huge difference. Jax State and UTMartin last season...they both probably looked at their schedule and thought the Mocs would be a Quality OOC opponent for their 2017 resume, based on consecutive playoff births, SoCon championships, etc....and they schduled a 3-8 team.

[ElCid]

Yep. That was Wofford's strategy last year. It looks like Coach Conklin is changing that ever so slightly. If you look in conference, Furman and the Citadel probably incorporate that strategy.

Meanwhile, Samford, Western, and VMI have the opposite approach.

SoCon has a diverse array of strategies. It's interesting to watch.

I hate it. I liked it when we did our hurry up and ran 75-85 plays. It really takes it toll on a D. We were snapping with 15-20 sec on the play clock. I realize that each game requires a specific plan, but we have slowed the game down a bit this year across the board.

[PaladinFan]

I hate it. I liked it when we did our hurry up and ran 75-85 plays. It really takes it toll on a D. We were snapping with 15-20 sec on the play clock. I realize that each game requires a specific plan, but we have slowed the game down a bit this year across the board.

I guess it was in Houston's tenure, but I really liked Citadel's offense when they were running option out of the hurry up.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman is probably somewhere in between. They are one of those "no huddle" teams that doesn't operate at a faster pace.

We tried to slow the game down against Samford, but that plan backfired after we struggled to stay on the field in the second half.

Furman definitely tried to slow it down against Wofford. I know Furman's a different team on offense from last year, but if you look at how they played, their strategy was to get the game at 2-3 scores by the third quarter and run clock. The only time it failed was ETSU this year.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm coming in Late on the OOC scheduling convo....but a thought to keep in mind, is a team may be really good at the time of scheduling, and suck 3 years later...or vice versa. Just looking at UT Martin at 1-6 this season...they were 7-5 in 2016 when we scheduled them...not a great record, but they did have wins over ranked teams that year.....and now.....they suck. At our level, 2 years can make a huge difference. Jax State and UTMartin last season...they both probably looked at their schedule and thought the Mocs would be a Quality OOC opponent for their 2017 resume, based on consecutive playoff births, SoCon championships, etc....and they schduled a 3-8 team.

Yeah, a lot of people disparaging the Socon's OOC don't realize how capricious it is. If you're out west, it's a plane ride no matter who you play, so the economics of it suck anyway. In the south, we have the Big South and OVC as possible games (and Samford/ETSU/Chatt has more options, being closer to the MVFC and Southland), but those conferences, sans JSU and now Kennesaw are a revolving door of inconsistency.

Wofford used to play D2 games every year. Since 2007, we've scheduled 10 FCS games four times, with 2 of them being this season and last. When we scheduled GW for this home and home scheduling, we had lost to them 2 straight.

In some ways it's a blessing that Kennesaw state is better than we thought, but whenever Samford scheduled them originally, I guarantee you it's because they thought it was a more winnable game. The Citadel scheduled CSU because CSU beat them a few times in a row, and the Citadel originally scheduled those games because CSU was beatable. Now CSU seems beatable again.

[PaladinFan]

Furman definitely tried to slow it down against Wofford. I know Furman's a different team on offense from last year, but if you look at how they played, their strategy was to get the game at 2-3 scores by the third quarter and run clock. The only time it failed was ETSU this year.

Sort of failed against Samford too. We are up 9 in the third quarter and intercept Hodges back to the 37.

If Furman is able to put a TD on the board there and drain a little time, Samford is down 26-10 late in the third quarter. Maybe they win. Maybe they don't. Of course, we fumble, they get a defensive score and the game changes.

[Reign of Terrier]

I hate Furman and as I say to the eye-rolling of Furman fans their defense has some problems (that may be fixed with more depth and experience in the next 2 years or so)

But their offensive philosophy/execution is national title worthy when it's clicking. Reminds me a lot of North Dakota State, and not just because it pile-drove my Terriers.

[FUBeAR]

While Saturday night may prove that you are the smartest guy in the room....on Wednesday, I think you need to put down the pipe....that kinda thinking means you probably should avoid opperating any type of motor vehicle or heavy equipment!!!

Which part?

This?...

4) Chatt - I just think they have enough for a solid stretch run. It won't be easy or very artistic, but they are pretty good.
Or this?...

VMI @ Chattanooga - VMI is looking ahead to Tusculum. They still put up a good fight, but they fall again. Mocs win it 42-28

[PaladinFan]

I hate Furman and as I say to the eye-rolling of Furman fans their defense has some problems (that may be fixed with more depth and experience in the next 2 years or so)

But their offensive philosophy/execution is national title worthy when it's clicking. Reminds me a lot of North Dakota State, and not just because it pile-drove my Terriers.

I think the defense will get there. Chad Staggs is too good of a defensive coach to flail around.

When you look at Furman's defense, the last two seasons it has been a hodgepodge of trying to find guys that fit the 3-4 scheme. Jaylan Reid (NG) and Aquil Anoor (S) have been consistent cogs, but beyond that Hendrix has had to find all sorts of guys to fill out a depth chart.

I realize the caution of always looking to next season, but I think 2019 is the first year you will really see stability in what Hendrix is trying to build. His recruits will now be in their third season, we will have a legitimate depth chart on both sides of the ball with guys recruited to play the positions they are actually playing (instead of constantly being moved to fill holes in the depth chart).

The future quality at ILB, which has been almost void of any experienced players the last two years, is really exciting. Furman used to be a vertiable "linebacker U" at this level, and that has more or less fizzled the last five or ten years. The guys coming into the program now, though, are guys that are really worth getting excited about.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

PowerPoll & Pick'em time again...already? Getting harder instead of easier...that ain't right!

Still gonna call 'em like I see 'em this week....

PowerPoll

1) Mercer - Wow - hard to do this after watching their D give up 2,798 yards against WCU...something like that. But I see an O that is starting to really gel with an Offensive Line that is improving, WR's with talents that rival Samford's crew (3 in the Top 10 yds/catch (#1, #5, #7), 2 RB's that are leading the Conference (#1 & #2 Conf. only stats), an All-SoCon TE that is finally healthy (Top Mercer Recvr vs. WCU), and a Starting/Back-Up/Starting QB who seemed to decide to just play ball loose & free...after a horrendous turnover that led to a scoop & score @ Yale & is now leading the SoCon in Pass Effic., Yds/Att. & Yds/Comp....all led by a new OC that seems to find the opponents’ weaknesses and exploit them. On their D...I don't know...I watch them fly around, hustle, and tackle well (except @ Memphis) just like last year, but they just seem to be a hair shy of making a play and getting off the field on 3rd/4th down...and then there have been a few mental busts in the secondary. They are playing A LOT of people over there though and they did get 2 key guys back from injury to play some last week...so, I'm just expecting them to gel as well...at some point this year. Also Special Teams - minus a KOR vs. CIT have been solid to great. If they stink it up in SparkleCity...I'll drop 'em...but I got a feeling they just might do OK. BTW - Just did a little Schedule Analysis / Math...and I find that Mercer still has to play 4 1-2 loss Teams, while the other 5 1-2 loss Teams only have to play 2 other 1-2 loss Teams each...so, tough 'finishing holes' for the Bears...BTW2 - I also concluded that a 4-way tie between Woffy, ETSU, Sammy, AND Chatt OR Furman - all at 6-2 is possible. There are probably other such scenarios as well.

2) Samford - The boys are back. With the re-emergence of Ahmad Gooden this past week (FUBeAR said on the FU Board that he was gonna have to "go some" if he was gonna be SoCon DPOY this year...and he sure did), I think Sammy's troubles on D will start to fade as their young guys in the back end get some more experience. The O can cook, of course.

3) Wofford - Was at the FU game and just watched their game with ETSU. They do what they do well, but I certainly wasn't impressed by their performance at FU and the game with ETSU seemed kind of 'meh' to me, other than the increased productivity of the DL. If the DL wreaks havoc on Mercer's O-Line this week, the Bears will not win. Otherwise, I think the Bears have enough weapons to score & I'm hoping the D will just find that something/something they've been missing to get it done. The loss of Woffy's Punter/Placekicker could hurt them this week and down the stretch. Also, Morgan, their starting RB (#4 Rusher / #1 Receiver) may be out this week...or more. They have some good ones behind him in the kennel, but his versatility and experience would certainly help vs. Mercer & Samford.

4) Chatt - I just think they have enough for a solid stretch run. It won't be easy or very artistic, but they are pretty good.

5) ETSU - not much separation between 4-7 - but I didn't see a lot to like in their effort vs. Woffy. Wonder if they are tiring or feeling some pressure in the 'air' that they haven't been in before.

6) Furman - Just thinking Roberts may be out a week or 2...and the Paladins struggle on O without him in there. With GREAT Coaching they may be able to figure it out and rise back up.

7) CIT - Like what their Defensive Front has been doing, but I haven't watched the VMI game. Just not their year...other than 1 day in Macon.

8) VMI - with their continued close games, I gotta give them a slight edge over the Catamounts

9) WCU - Tyrie Adams, a healthy Tyrie Adams, shouldn't be sitting down here because he's an amazing talent (an opinion from which I have never wavered, BTW). But that D continues to be GOLDEN for each of their Opponents - add in the Special Teams and they are Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanza all rolled up into one. Surprisingly, I think their Defensive players have played harder recently than what I saw vs. Furman, but they just aren't very good OR they are the most unprepared Defense that has ever taken a college football field. I have a surprise below though....


Pick 'em - Week 9 Games

Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Mercer goes into SparkleCity and steals back one of the 2 that the RatDogs have stolen in Macon (1 point wins in 2015 & 2017). Bears win 31-28 on a 'walk-off' Field Goal in overtime.

Furman @ The Citadel - Furman sputters a bit on O, but Coach Staggs still has the bellhops’ number and shuts down their Offense cold. Paladins win it. 21-3

VMI @ Chattanooga - VMI is looking ahead to Tusculum. They still put up a good fight, but they fall again. Mocs win it 42-28

Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Adams is WELL and Mercer wasn't able to get the clean shots on him that FU, Sammy, and Chatt did. ETSU won't either. I don't think ETSU's O is quite creative enough to cause WCU's D to assume a fetal position as they did against Mercer and Samford, so the Catamounts have a chance...and they capitalize on it...and UPSET the Bucs - 45-42.

Ladies and gentleman, I give you Mercer's version of chattownmocs.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer should have beaten us last year, but at the same time, they play much better at home than on the road.EDITED BELOW DUE TO FUBeAR COUNTING ERROR

In SoCon games since 2014, Mercer is exactly the same at Home as they are Away - 7-10 at Home & 7-10 Away.

So, you could say “In 2018 Mercer is playing 2x as well in SoCon Away games & is undefeated in those at 2-0 (1.000) than they are in SoCon Home games at 1-1 (.500).”

”...much better at Home” only applies to Mercer’s prior contests with Wofford, but I don’t think you’re going to be able to sell Gibbs Stadium as a “hostile environment” as it ain’t exactly the FargoDome there. The disparity in Mercer’s performances at home and away vs. Woffy, most likely are a function of coincidence or temporal.

Mercer was very much ‘limping home’ with a 1-5 conference record heading into the final game of 2014. In 2016, Mercer was 2-2 in the Conference, with the bellhops running away with it, at the time sitting at 5-0 and expected to thrash a 1st SoCon-year ETSU Team that week & VMI still to play, effectively eliminating the Bears from a ‘title shot.’ The odd year contests were very early in the season - 1st SoCon games for Mercer on both occasions - still in the running for the SoCon Championship, obviously.

Contrary to prior years when the Bears came to SparkleCity, this year they are coming in as, currently, the ONLY SoCon Team that is in complete control of their own destiny in terms of having an opportunity to win the SoCon Title “outright.”

Just another data point...the worst SoCon game I have ever seen Mercer play was at home against Samford in 2017. Probably the best SoCon game I have ever seen them play was 2018 AT Samford.

[FUBeAR]

Ladies and gentleman, I give you Mercer's version of chattownmocs.yeah...I thought this...

Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State - Adams is WELL and Mercer wasn't able to get the clean shots on him that FU, Sammy, and Chatt did. ETSU won't either. I don't think ETSU's O is quite creative enough to cause WCU's D to assume a fetal position as they did against Mercer and Samford, so the Catamounts have a chance...and they capitalize on it...and UPSETthe Bucs - 45-42.

...might bother you. Sorry. Just callin’ ‘em as I see ‘em.

[Reign of Terrier]

In SoCon games since 2014, Mercer is 1/2 game better at Home than they are Away - 8-10 at Home & 7-10 Away.

So, you could say “Mercer is slightly better at home by a small margin” OR you could say, “In 2018 Mercer is playing 2x as well in SoCon Away games & is undefeated in those at 2-0 (1.000) than they are in SoCon Home games at 1-1 (.500).”

”...much better at Home” only applies to Mercer’s prior contests with Wofford, but I don’t think you’re going to be able to sell Gibbs Stadium as a “hostile environment” as it ain’t exactly the FargoDome there. The disparity in Mercer’s performances at home and away vs. Woffy, most likely are a function of coincidence or temporal.

Mercer was very much ‘limping home’ with a 1-5 conference record heading into the final game of 2014. In 2016, Mercer was 2-2 in the Conference, with the bellhops running away with it, at the time sitting at 5-0 and expected to thrash a 1st SoCon-year ETSU Team that week & VMI still to play, effectively eliminating the Bears from a ‘title shot.’ The odd year contests were very early in the season - 1st SoCon games for Mercer on both occasions - still in the running for the SoCon Championship, obviously.

Contrary to prior years when the Bears came to SparkleCity, this year they are coming in as, currently, the ONLY SoCon Team that is in complete control of their own destiny in terms of having an opportunity to win the SoCon Title “outright.”

Just another data point...the worst SoCon game I have ever seen Mercer play was at home against Samford in 2017. Probably the best SoCon game I have ever seen them play was 2018 AT Samford.

Go a step farther and tell me the margin of victory/defeat in those games compared to performance on the road when controlling for the quality of the opponent. I'm asking you to "tell me" because I'm so sure of it that I don't think it needs looking up. My memory of the 2015 game is that Wofford let Mercer back in it when we shouldn't have.

Playing better on the road vs home doesn't necessarily manifest itself in wins and losses, but by making games closer than they should be or otherwise would expected to be. ETSU fits this mold, Mercer does as well. Neither have broken free of it just yet.

[PaladinFan]

Go a step farther and tell me the margin of victory/defeat in those games compared to performance on the road when controlling for the quality of the opponent. I'm asking you to "tell me" because I'm so sure of it that I don't think it needs looking up. My memory of the 2015 game is that Wofford let Mercer back in it when we shouldn't have.

Playing better on the road vs home doesn't necessarily manifest itself in wins and losses, but by making games closer than they should be or otherwise would expected to be. ETSU fits this mold, Mercer does as well. Neither have broken free of it just yet.

With Mercer, I don't think a lot of the splits matter or how they start or how they finish. In my view, all the figures sort of point to Mercer being a ".500ish" football team. That's pretty much what they've been every season in the SoCon, with a 26-26 overall record to date.

They are 4-3 right now with 4 tough games to go. Maybe they win all 4 and finish 8-3 and buck the trend. My guess is they don't and finish either 5-6 or 6-5.

[FUBeAR]

Go a step farther and tell me the margin of victory/defeat in those games compared to performance on the road when controlling for the quality of the opponent. I'm asking you to "tell me" because I'm so sure of it that I don't think it needs looking up. My memory of the 2015 game is that Wofford let Mercer back in it when we shouldn't have.

Playing better on the road vs home doesn't necessarily manifest itself in wins and losses, but by making games closer than they should be or otherwise would expected to be. ETSU fits this mold, Mercer does as well. Neither have broken free of it just yet.EDITED BELOW DUE TO FUBeAR COUNTING ERROR

Your memory is as flawed as the logic of choosing to ignore facts when they don’t suit the story you want to tell and/or believe.

Wofford did lead the 2015 game from late in the 1st quarter until late in the 4th, but that lead see-sawed back & forth between 3 & 10 points 5 times over the course of the game & never exceeded 10 points. At no point in that game was Mercer not “in it.” What Wofford, or Mercer for that matter, “should have” or “should not have” done is pure conjecture; conjecture viewed through a biased lens.

The FACTS are that Mercer’s “batting average” in all SoCon games is .412 & at home is .412 & is .412 in SoCon away games. To say that “Mercer plays much better at home” is simply incorrect and all of that other gobbledygook is...well...quite simply put, just gobbledygook.

[Reign of Terrier]

There'll be some mad people in Macon if ETSU makes the playoffs or finishes with 6 wins+ in the socon before them.

[PaladinFan]

Furman releases its depth chart: http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/2018_Furman_Game_Notes_-_Stats.pdf

As I assumed might happen, we have four different players listed as the potential starting QB against the Citadel. Never seen that before.

My thoughts:

1. We don't know what the extent of Harris Roberts' injury is. I haven't seen anything reported on it. He may technically "questionable" for the game and even warm up pregame.

2. Furman may be trying to redshirt Darren Grainger. With the extra offweek via Colgate, Grainger has only appeared in four games. As I understand the redshirt rule, Furman could shut him down now and save his redshirt season.

3. Furman may play Hamp Sisson. Sisson is the other true freshman QB on the roster. He hasn't played at all. He could feasibly play in every game the rest of the regular season and still redshirt. Again, as I understand the rule.

4. JeMar Lincoln may get most of the play at QB 1.

In any event, it really does look like the Citadel has to at least prepare to see four different QBs.

[FUBeAR]

With Mercer, I don't think a lot of the splits matter or how they start or how they finish. In my view, all the figures sort of point to Mercer being a ".500ish" football team. That's pretty much what they've been every season in the SoCon, with a 26-26 overall record to date.

They are 4-3 right now with 4 tough games to go. Maybe they win all 4 and finish 8-3 and buck the trend.Yep...
36-27 overall (.679)
14-20 SoCon (.411)
2014 - 1-6 (.143)
2015 - 2-5 (.400)
2016 - 4-4 (.500)
2017 - 4-4 (.500)
2018 - 3-1 (.750)(ytd)

miscounted in my earlier posts...edited

[FUBeAR]

There'll be some mad people in Macon if ETSU makes the playoffs or finishes with 6 wins+ in the socon before them.
No madder than they’ll be if Mercer loses to Wofford on Saturday.

[FUBeAR]

Furman releases its depth chart: http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/2018_Furman_Game_Notes_-_Stats.pdf

As I assumed might happen, we have four different players listed as the potential starting QB against the Citadel.Hold on...they just revised it...there are 5 there now...

QB 15 HARRIS ROBERTS..............(6-4, 209, R-Sr.)
-or-
4 Darren Grainger ...................(6-4, 190, Fr.)
-or-
12 JeMar Lincoln................... (6-1, 194, R-Fr.)
-or-
19 Hamp Sisson ........................(6-0, 185, Fr.)
-or-
00 FUBeAR.............................(6-3, 2much, V-Sr.)

Coach Hendrix asked me before the Samford game if I wanted to “pad up.” I guess I’ve been drafted. Coach must have acquired some of those Super 8 home movies of FUBeAR running that split veer Offense as a smooth ball-handling 8th grade QB.

I’ll do my best Paladin Fan! Look out bellhops!!

[kdinva]

Mercer 17 @ Wofford 27
Furman 21 @ The Citadel 23
VMI 31 @ UTC 35
Western Carolina 20 @ ETSU 31

[PaladinFan]

Hold on...they just revised it...there are 5 there now...

QB 15 HARRIS ROBERTS..............(6-4, 209, R-Sr.)
-or-
4 Darren Grainger ...................(6-4, 190, Fr.)
-or-
12 JeMar Lincoln................... (6-1, 194, R-Fr.)
-or-
19 Hamp Sisson ........................(6-0, 185, Fr.)
-or-
00 FUBeAR.............................(6-3, 2much, V-Sr.)

Coach Hendrix asked me before the Samford game if I wanted to “pad up.” I guess I’ve been drafted. Coach must have acquired some of those Super 8 home movies of FUBeAR running that split veer Offense as a smooth ball-handling 8th grade QB.

I’ll do my best Paladin Fan! Look out bellhops!!

You're gonna be like Charles Grant down at Miller County on a Friday night in Colquitt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9-cxEAyaYw

[kdinva]

VMI @ Chattanooga - VMI is looking ahead to Tusculum. .


xlolx

that is a laugh........especially after VMI S__t the bed vs. UTC last Fall.....

[ElCid]

Furman releases its depth chart: http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/2018_Furman_Game_Notes_-_Stats.pdf

As I assumed might happen, we have four different players listed as the potential starting QB against the Citadel. Never seen that before.

My thoughts:

1. We don't know what the extent of Harris Roberts' injury is. I haven't seen anything reported on it. He may technically "questionable" for the game and even warm up pregame.

2. Furman may be trying to redshirt Darren Grainger. With the extra offweek via Colgate, Grainger has only appeared in four games. As I understand the redshirt rule, Furman could shut him down now and save his redshirt season.

3. Furman may play Hamp Sisson. Sisson is the other true freshman QB on the roster. He hasn't played at all. He could feasibly play in every game the rest of the regular season and still redshirt. Again, as I understand the rule.

4. JeMar Lincoln may get most of the play at QB 1.

In any event, it really does look like the Citadel has to at least prepare to see four different QBs.

Furman sucks.

[gofurman]

Furman sucks.

We might if we have to play our FOURTH QB. Kinda a no-lose for us. If you beat us with a QB who is FOURTH on the depth-chart well.... Good for ya'.

If you can't beat our fourth QB -who has no business being in the field - well, that's gonna sting, Like a 56-20 loss did last year xdrunkyx

Juat havin fun w ya

-----
To all Citadel fans -
*who is hurt for Citadel and what position do they play?**
were they starters ???

((I was watching you play ETSU and saw number 3 return a kick and get hurt. That stinks. I dont want guys hurt at all, just curious ). Maybe he is back now ?

-and before you think I am sneaking information... Here are POSSIBLE guys out for Furman

1). STARTING QB ROBERTS ... WHooped Wofford, really had the team improving.. But as you know got hit hard (game notes say concussion) vs Samford and couldn't return
2). SECOND QB - future guy probably - Grainger.. I have no idea but would we play him one more game and burn his Redshirt year just for one game ???

3). STARTING RB MOREHEAD. Didn't play against Samford... It's in our game notes, he's #3.
though we honestly have more depth of speed at RB than we used to by far. Hendrix has already brought in speedy RBs that can catch out of the backfield. Problem is can a backup QB hit those throws to the RB coming out of the backfield???

IF - IF - we are on QB number 3 or 4 can we even run those plays??? Sisson TRUE FR hasn't played a single snap ever in college. EVER. and J Lincoln has only played in a game or two. We might be playing a playbook with only 15 plays xeyebrowx
----
4). On defense number 6 Trapp (Clemson Transfer) is probable I think at CB. He's a starting CB.

5). Our other starting CB 13 Weems I don't know. Hasn't played much

so you may get our backups at BOTH CORNERS. don't go all air-raid on us now :D

still, that's big. Your system wants to block our CBs downfield to allow runs.

[ElCid]

I think everyone is mostly healthy. Banged up maybe some, but no serious issues. I don't follow the nitty gritty status so maybe some issues, but nothing big that I can recall. Having doubts about a QB sucks, but maybe it's all a show...... I know that some Furman fans believe they have chances at post season but I think we are both playing for pride, status, and experience at this point.

[gofurman]

I think everyone is mostly healthy. Banged up maybe some, but no serious issues. I don't follow the nitty gritty status so maybe some issues, but nothing big that I can recall. Having doubts about a QB sucks, but maybe it's all a show...... I know that some Furman fans believe they have chances at post season but I think we are both playing for pride, status, and experience at this point.

agree. though I think if Furman had been healthy .. IE Roberts coulda played and gotten reps v Clemson and Elon we might woulda won at ETSU and if he had not gotten' hit w Samford we Could have won that. IE, even at 50/50 we would be 3-1 in conference ..MAYBE 4-0.. but probably easily 3-1 and tied for the lead .. and doing pretty well

That said, it is what it is, and I agree we are playing to improve and hopefully start next year with votes or a top 25 (like number 25) status. I think if Furman loses to Citadel without Roberts but wins the last three v Chatt, VMI and Mercer we would at least be getting votes (ORV).. maybe about number 25. IE, we were already getting votes from STATS when we beat Wofford and if we win 3 of last 4 would at least be back to that and maybe more. And though that is not the best goal it does help to make the playoffs next year etc. The more you are getting votes and in the top 25 poll the more name recognition you get...

As anyone who follows FCS knows it is FAR harder to get in the polls .. than it is to fall out. Once you are in they tend to overlook a loss or two. but to get in you have to do a lot. Last year Furman won 7 straight and STILL wasn't in the top 25 of one of the polls which was ridiculous. you saw our team last year. some of these STATS/COaches don't pay a lot of attention.

Anyway, any other Citadel fan know of any injuries to Citadel?

[gofurman]

I hate Furman and as I say to the eye-rolling of Furman fans their defense has some problems (that may be fixed with more depth and experience in the next 2 years or so)

But their offensive philosophy/execution is national title worthy when it's clicking. Reminds me a lot of North Dakota State, and not just because it pile-drove my Terriers.

I. don't think you are wrong. If we have our QBs of experience - Blaze, Roberts etc our O can work like a well-oiled machine. But you need to have SOME experience. I do think when the older QBs are hurt and the freshman are In we tone it down too much. Hand off left. Hand off right. You have to keep playing to win. Simplify it sure.. But don't completely shut it down. But it's tough when you go from a senior to a TRUE FR who played one year of QB in hs. That's rough. And could easily. be the case this week

and I agree with you on D - we have a phenomenal option/ run D. We MUST improve our pass D. The only item I would throw out there is our pass D has usually been exposed (ETSU and Samford) when our O has stalled on several occasions. Most pass D are going to have that happen. Where there is no defending our pass D is vs Western where our O was rolling up yards and we had to win a shootout. I agree. There is room for improvement there. But we brought in Staggs as we felt run D is more important than pass D in our league and I agree it is overall better to stop the run than the pass in SoCon

[Milktruck74]

Hold on...they just revised it...there are 5 there now...

QB 15 HARRIS ROBERTS..............(6-4, 209, R-Sr.)
-or-
4 Darren Grainger ...................(6-4, 190, Fr.)
-or-
12 JeMar Lincoln................... (6-1, 194, R-Fr.)
-or-
19 Hamp Sisson ........................(6-0, 185, Fr.)
-or-
00 FUBeAR.............................(6-3, 2much, V-Sr.)

Coach Hendrix asked me before the Samford game if I wanted to “pad up.” I guess I’ve been drafted. Coach must have acquired some of those Super 8 home movies of FUBeAR running that split veer Offense as a smooth ball-handling 8th grade QB.

I’ll do my best Paladin Fan! Look out bellhops!!

Old NBA and MLB guys do charity exhibition games after retirement, Golf has the Senior's tour......there is a GOOD reason the NFL doesn't have a Senior's League.....could you Imagine the carnage? The Play by Play would sound like this..... "Number 84 makes the catch across the middle...and immediatly tackled by the LB...He is slow to get up....I think his leg just fell off...yes, the trainers are on the field with a bucket to collect his body parts....we will be back after the commercial break and after they clean the field!!!"

[PaladinNation]

We might if we have to play our FOURTH QB. Kinda a no-lose for us. If you beat us with a QB who is FOURTH on the depth-chart well.... Good for ya'.

If you can't beat our fourth QB -who has no business being in the field - well, that's gonna sting, Like a 56-20 loss did last year xdrunkyx

Juat havin fun w ya

-----
To all Citadel fans -
*who is hurt for Citadel and what position do they play?**
were they starters ???

((I was watching you play ETSU and saw number 3 return a kick and get hurt. That stinks. I dont want guys hurt at all, just curious ). Maybe he is back now ?

-and before you think I am sneaking information... Here are POSSIBLE guys out for Furman

1). STARTING QB ROBERTS ... WHooped Wofford, really had the team improving.. But as you know got hit hard (game notes say concussion) vs Samford and couldn't return
2). SECOND QB - future guy probably - Grainger.. I have no idea but would we play him one more game and burn his Redshirt year just for one game ???

3). STARTING RB MOREHEAD. Didn't play against Samford... It's in our game notes, he's #3.
though we honestly have more depth of speed at RB than we used to by far. Hendrix has already brought in speedy RBs that can catch out of the backfield. Problem is can a backup QB hit those throws to the RB coming out of the backfield???

IF - IF - we are on QB number 3 or 4 can we even run those plays??? Sisson TRUE FR hasn't played a single snap ever in college. EVER. and J Lincoln has only played in a game or two. We might be playing a playbook with only 15 plays xeyebrowx
----
4). On defense number 6 Trapp (Clemson Transfer) is probable I think at CB. He's a starting CB.

5). Our other starting CB 13 Weems I don't know. Hasn't played much

so you may get our backups at BOTH CORNERS. don't go all air-raid on us now :D

still, that's big. Your system wants to block our CBs downfield to allow runs.

A little correct on this post… Hamp Sisson at one time was running the first-team offense in the pre-season. Sisson actually went into the purple-white scrimmage as #1. Grainger had a breakout scrimmage and moved up.

My take on what could happen… we will see Grainger with Lincoln - unless Grainger redshirts (that would be the smartest move). Lincoln's knock, is maybe passing inconsistency. That is a guess but confuses me because I've seen him look very sharp in scrimmages. Lincoln, I think could be very successful running this offense Saturday. I would love to see Furman use Lincoln as a wildcat type QB.

Now back to Sisson, you make him sound like a bench-warmer that shouldn't see the field. Sisson is a high IQ guy, played at a high-level in Alabama, was very successful, and was rated Furman's top recruit in 2018. I don't think Sisson would have any problems with the playbook, he's also an RPO guy. Sisson shouldn't have any issues hitting the backs. And, Sisson has been on the sidelines all season in a yellow ball cap signaling in plays.

http://www.hudl.com/v/27p7Bn

[SCPALADIN]

A little correct on this post… Hamp Sisson at one time was running the first-team offense in the pre-season. Sisson actually went into the purple-white scrimmage as #1. Grainger had a breakout scrimmage and moved up.

My take on what could happen… we will see Grainger with Lincoln - unless Grainger redshirts (that would be the smartest move). Lincoln's knock, is maybe passing inconsistency. That is a guess but confuses me because I've seen him look very sharp in scrimmages. Lincoln, I think could be very successful running this offense Saturday. I would love to see Furman use Lincoln as a wildcat type QB.

Now back to Sisson, you make him sound like a bench-warmer that shouldn't see the field. Sisson is a high IQ guy, played at a high-level in Alabama, was very successful, and was rated Furman's top recruit in 2018. I don't think Sisson would have any problems with the playbook, he's also an RPO guy. Sisson shouldn't have any issues hitting the backs. And, Sisson has been on the sidelines all season in a yellow ball cap signaling in plays.

http://www.hudl.com/v/27p7Bn

I'm really hoping we get to see some of what Sisson can do in these next 4 games. You can take his HUDL highlight film, put it next to Blazejowski's, and the similarities are incredible.

[FUBeAR]

A little correct on this post… Hamp Sisson at one time was running the first-team offense in the pre-season. Sisson actually went into the purple-white scrimmage as #1. Grainger had a breakout scrimmage and moved up.

My take on what could happen… we will see Grainger with Lincoln - unless Grainger redshirts (that would be the smartest move). Lincoln's knock, is maybe passing inconsistency. That is a guess but confuses me because I've seen him look very sharp in scrimmages. Lincoln, I think could be very successful running this offense Saturday. I would love to see Furman use Lincoln as a wildcat type QB.

Now back to Sisson, you make him sound like a bench-warmer that shouldn't see the field. Sisson is a high IQ guy, played at a high-level in Alabama, was very successful, and was rated Furman's top recruit in 2018. I don't think Sisson would have any problems with the playbook, he's also an RPO guy. Sisson shouldn't have any issues hitting the backs. And, Sisson has been on the sidelines all season in a yellow ball cap calling in plays.

http://www.hudl.com/v/27p7Bn

Well, I’m a sentimentalist, and I would LOVE to see JeMar Lincoln be ‘the guy’ for FU in this game if Roberts is unable to go. You see, Lincoln and Jordan Black, the bellhops’ QB, are cousins...and they are both nephews of none other than, NFL Hall of Famer, Mel Blount, of the famed Pittsburgh Steelers’ Steel Curtain Defense. While others may disagree, I think he’s the best Cornerback to ever play the game. A 6’3” 205+ lb CB in 1970!! Total freak who could cover any WR AND LIGHT UP any RB in the league, where he played for 13 years. “Kind of” a hero of mine, since I played DB (and QB) back in those Steel Curtain days.

I’m sure Mr. Blount will be in attendance, as he was at the CIT @ FU game last year, when I had the pleasure and privilege to meet him - looks like he could still PLAY. Maybe we can get the NFL network to cover the game...and ESPN, etc....besides...I think Lincoln CAN get the job done....just needs more game reps.

[PaladinNation]

Well, I’m a sentimentalist, and I would LOVE to see JeMar Lincoln be ‘the guy’ for FU in this game if Roberts is unable to go. You see, Lincoln and Jordan Black, the bellhops’ QB, are cousins...and they are both nephews of none other than, NFL Hall of Famer, Mel Blount, of the famed Pittsburgh Steelers’ Steel Curtain Defense. While others may disagree, I think he’s the best Cornerback to ever play the game. A 6’3” 205+ lb CB in 1970!! Total freak who could cover any WR AND LIGHT UP any RB in the league, where he played for 13 years. “Kind of” a hero of mine, since I played DB (and QB) back in those Steel Curtain days.

I’m sure Mr. Blount will be in attendance, as he was at the CIT @ FU game last year, when I had the pleasure and privilege to meet him - looks like he could still PLAY. Maybe we can get the NFL network to cover the game...and ESPN, etc....besides...I think Lincoln CAN get the job done....just needs more game reps.

Watching Lincoln's hudl film… it's obvious he's a dangerous runner.
http://www.hudl.com/v/298Ncn

[sudog03]

Having seen Sisson play a few times in HS, I can see why Furman has played every QB but him in games. Never thought high-level SoCon QB watching him. Scrappy kid though.

[SU DOG]

I know where you're coming from 03, but I believe he will be very successful in running the Furman offense. He will make good decisions, and I think that is crucial for a QB that seemingly has to do myriad things in their schemes.

[sudog03]

Well, they've played 3 other QB's, including another tFr. To play at a high level in the SoCon, you have to have a QB that can do more than make good decisions.

[FUBeAR]

Y’all are gonna make FUBeAR go down a path he doesn’t really want to go. Let’s move the discussion away from Freshman SoCon QB’s from the B’ham area...shall we?

Here’s a better topic...a fun fact I just saw in Mercer’s Game Notes for their game this week against #7 Wofford...

”The Bears have won three straight road games against nationally-ranked FCS opponents dating back to last season”

Didn’t someone recently say Mercer couldn’t even beat eggs when they are on the road...something like that?

Well...
Date Opponent W/L Score
10/7/17 at #17 The Citadel W 24-14
11/11/17 at #25 W. Carolina W 35-33
9/15/18 at #9 Samford W 30-24

[PaladinFan]

I know where you're coming from 03, but I believe he will be very successful in running the Furman offense. He will make good decisions, and I think that is crucial for a QB that seemingly has to do myriad things in their schemes.

When I watched Sisson's high school tape, I was impressed. He does not appear to be the pure athlete that Grainger is, but he looks like a QB with good form and decision making.

I've heard some criticisms of him (maybe from the same poster), but he had scholarship offers from Furman, Wofford, JSU, the Citadel and one or two of the academies, so I presume they all saw something that said "D1 QB." From what I understand, he is more comfortable in the option game than Grainger is and still possesses a good arm. Again, he's still a true freshman. If he plays, then I expect there will still be a learning curve.

I do not know this for a fact, but I presume the knock on JeMar Lincoln must be his passing. He's comfortable running the option, but I guess you wonder whether he is accurate enough in Furman's offense. This play from Saturday stood out to me.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1053761259751886849

Well designed play with a wide open receiver. A little pressure on Lincoln, but there's not a Samford defender within five yards of the target. That's about as wide open as you get near the goalline. Ball delivered behind him and requires Armstrong to make a really impressive play to bend over backwards and get it. In Furman's catch and run passing attack, that ball has to be delivered on the hands.

[Reign of Terrier]

Y’all are gonna make FUBeAR go down a path he doesn’t really want to go. Let’s move the discussion away from Freshman SoCon QB’s from the B’ham area...shall we?

Here’s a better topic...a fun fact I just saw in Mercer’s Game Notes for their game this week against #7 Wofford...

”The Bears have won three straight road games against nationally-ranked FCS opponents dating back to last season”

Didn’t someone recently say Mercer couldn’t even beat eggs when they are on the road...something like that?

Well...
Date Opponent W/L Score
10/7/17 at #17 The Citadel W 24-14
11/11/17 at #25 W. Carolina W 35-33
9/15/18 at #9 Samford W 30-24

How many of them finished ranked?

If Wofford is for real, they will win this game.

[FUBeAR]

How many of them finished ranked?
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQ6Z4ed1Wu4P5lPEcY_W5k4-GrtPbVdscAlP6qPFfpi9wNQGk7z

[WallyWofford]

I think Kennesaw, JSU and one other team in North Carolina/Virginia (Richmond, William and Mary, maybe even Campbell or Charleston Southern) joining the Socon would be best for the conference in terms of our competitiveness at this level. We could have two "divisions" divided on east/west that schedule regularly with rotating interdivisional games. It probably won't happen. I'd put money on Richmond/W&M joining before JSU because they will probably change conferences once JMU moves up. They're probably worse outliers in the CAA without JMU than they would be in a hypothetical socon.

No way Richmond leaves the A10 for the SoCon. Basketball offers too much money at that level. I would love to see them become an affiliated member for football, but I don't see them leaving the CAA unless W&M makes the jump for all sports.

[PaladinFan]

https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/furman-week-reminds-citadel-coach-of-one-of-worst-coaching/article_98b9f0d2-d6f1-11e8-9128-1f15dd3a8660.html

[Reign of Terrier]

A couple notes and some revised predictions/rankings for YT, after crunching some numbers:

If you just look at Socon games, Furman is still scoring 47% of the time.

Samford's defense has rallied big time in the last few weeks. At the start of the year they were letting teams score about 50% of the time, now it's in the high 30s, which is mid-tier and the kind of performance you want out of a team like Samford.

Mercer has scored 57% of the time they've touched the ball in conference play and 55% against FCS competition.

Western's offense is actually mediocre compared to last year, scoring on about 39% of drives in both FCS and socon competition. Their defense is atrocious, being scored upon by greater than chance by both measures.

Though VMI is scoring more points this year, they are still a not-good offense, only scoring about 28% of the time, a conference low.

Wofford (still) probably has the best defense in the Socon (for now), followed by ETSU/Chattanooga in a toss up. They are the only teams holding opponents to scores less than 31% of the time, with Wofford being a solid possession ahead of everyone with about 22% in both conference play and FCS competition. Wofford can't be too overconfident though, we've played the worst offenses in the conference thus far.

Here are some consistent trends:
1) Chattanooga's defense consistently makes their opponents perform 10%+ worse than their offensive average. The only exception is the Citadel, which broke even but need OT to do it
2) Citadel's offense does something similar to opposing defenses, with the exception of Wofford and VMI (who held them to a possession or so worse than their average...I hasten to mention Wofford giftwrapped some points in that one). The only bad game Citadel's had in conference play was Wofford (and that was very bad)
3) ETSU's offense isn't terrible so much as they do as well as opposing defenses average. They're scoring only about 5% less than opposing defense's average, and if you take out the VMI game, they do much better.
4) Furman has only had one "bad" game on either side of the ball, and it was against Western's offense. They had a spectacular game against Wofford that looks more and more like an outlier (for now), both in how Wofford performed compared to their average and how Furman compared to their average.
5) I honestly can't give enough insight on Mercer, between their QB injury, defensive question marks, seemingly good offense and smaller sample of comparable games that I can cross reference to consistent controls (Yale, Jacksonville tell us little in this context!)
6) Similar things could be said about Samford, but it's exasperated by the fact that they've played both of the worst defenses and one of the best offenses and one team in between (Furman) with sporadic results altogether.
7) VMI played their best game of the year against the Citadel, actually. I don't think they'll win a conference game though, as they only have two remaining against Chattanooga and Furman.
8) Western Carolina had a measurably better game than average against Mercer on offense and Mercer had a measurably worse game on defense in that one, but if you take that away, Western's offense being great is more perception than reality
9) I feel like I talk up Wofford enough, so I'll spare you the details.

ETSU, Samford, VMI, Western and Mercer average 12+ possessions per game on offense

Wofford, Furman, Citadel, Chattanooga average 11 (or under)

My revised power rankings:
Wofford
Mercer
Samford
ETSU
Chattanooga
Furman
Citadel
Western Carolina
VMI

Maybe this was the exact same rankings as before, I don't know, but I came up with these by averaging the offensive/defensive efficiency rank and ordering based on who had won/lost head to head

Picks for this weekend (based on power rankings)
Furman (in what looks to be a good one)
Wofford
ETSU
Chattanooga

[Scrappy94]

1. Wofford
2. Chattanooga
3. ETSU
4. Samford
5. Mercer
6. Furman
7. The Citadel
8. Western Carolina
9. VMI

Mercer @ Wofford - 34-24
Furman @ The Citadel - 31-28
VMI @ Chattanooga - 42-13
Western Carolina @ ETSU - 35-31

[FUBeAR]

revised predictions/rankings for YT, after crunching some numbers:

My revised power rankings:
Wofford
Mercer
Samford
ETSU
Chattanooga
Furman
Citadel
Western Carolina
VMI

1) Wofford - 3 = -2
2) Mercer - 1 = +1
3) Samford - 2 = +1
4) ETSU - 5 = -1
5) Chatt - 4 = +1
6) Furman - 6 = 0
7) CIT - 7 = 0
8) WCU - 9 = -1
9) VMI - 8 = +1

FUBeAR PowerPoll Rank to the right, then difference. The absolute value of the differences is less than 1 (.888) per Team with only 1 Team being greater than 1 ‘slot’ different. Same Top 3, same bottom 2, same middle 4....and YT has done the math!

And, y’all accuse FUBeAR of allowing substance abuse to affect his rankings. It’s SCIENCE people!! SCIENCE, I say!

[FUBeAR]

Mercer @ Wofford - 34-24
Furman @ The Citadel - 31-28
VMI @ Chattanooga - 42-13
Western Carolina @ ETSU - 35-31Aren’t you leading the AGS Pick’em game? Did you happen to mis-bold the wrong Team on that 1st line? Maybe?

I see you picking that WCU upset too. xthumbsupx

[gofurman]

When I watched Sisson's high school tape, I was impressed. He does not appear to be the pure athlete that Grainger is, but he looks like a QB with good form and decision making.

I've heard some criticisms of him (maybe from the same poster), but he had scholarship offers from Furman, Wofford, JSU, the Citadel and one or two of the academies, so I presume they all saw something that said "D1 QB." From what I understand, he is more comfortable in the option game than Grainger is and still possesses a good arm. Again, he's still a true freshman. If he plays, then I expect there will still be a learning curve.

I do not know this for a fact, but I presume the knock on JeMar Lincoln must be his passing. He's comfortable running the option, but I guess you wonder whether he is accurate enough in Furman's offense. This play from Saturday stood out to me.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1053761259751886849

Well designed play with a wide open receiver. A little pressure on Lincoln, but there's not a Samford defender within five yards of the target. That's about as wide open as you get near the goalline. Ball delivered behind him and requires Armstrong to make a really impressive play to bend over backwards and get it. In Furman's catch and run passing attack, that ball has to be delivered on the hands.

“but I presume the knock on JeMar Lincoln must be his passing. “

That what worries me. I remembered that play too ... I have watched other portions during the year. TOTAL GUESS but if Roberts is held out w concussion and they save Grainger to preserve a redshirt I fear we have an option QB - Lincoln - and a passing QB - Sisson

I wasn’t dismissing anyone but it’s a HUGE dropping from Roberts at this point. That’s all. It is. And it’s enough of a drop that even for next year some purple glasses fans wonder if we need a one year FBS transfer to let the freshman QBs mature

[gofurman]

I'm really hoping we get to see some of what Sisson can do in these next 4 games. You can take his HUDL highlight film, put it next to Blazejowski's, and the similarities are incredible.

I get that. But it's a little odd to me. . Because in a way you are saying you hope Roberts is not healthy. Obviously the less Roberts can go the better the chance we see Sisson. As you we have seen if Roberts it's healthy it is his show.

I didn't mean any knock on Sisson before. I just want to win and get ranked for next year. Right now that's Roberts. Also Roberts WAITED FOUR YEARS to see the field. And I would like to see him on it especially due to that patience. The other guys have several years

[gofurman]

N
A couple notes and some revised predictions/rankings for YT, after crunching some numbers:

Furman has only had one "bad" game on either side of the ball, and it was against Western's offense. They had a spectacular game against Wofford that looks more and more like an outlier (for now), both in how Wofford performed compared to their average and how Furman compared to their average.




I don't think that Wofford game was an outlier. Maybe in a very macro sense. But not when you look behind the numbers. Here's why. One, Staggs is an option KILLA'. 5-0 vs Citadel including time at Charleston Southern and Furman. 1-2 vs strong Wofford teams last year and this year. So Staggs has coached defenses to a combined 6-2 record vs at least three strong Wofford teams and the very best Citadel playoff games of Houston. ( Staggs Charleston Southern team beat Citadel TWICE the same year that Citadel beat South Carolina, think about that ). Once that year CSU beat Citadel 14-6 when Citadel was able to put 23 on USC.

Now agian, if we don't have Roberts that changes everything. Yes, even our Defense to a large extent.

Two - that Woff game is one of only three games we had Roberts healthy. You saw what a difference he makes. Think if we can't throw to a back out of the backfield in that game? Maybe Wofford wins. I fully admit that. I know every play matters ... Can't keep the offense on the field bc no starting QB? Your d wears out. Roberts makes all throws a very real threat on every play... If we are Without him maybe Citadl plays an extra guy in the box. Thats a killer. Force a new QB to throw to beat you. Could get ugly In Citadl favor

[FUBeAR]

So...I built a little rudimentary (I would be ashamed to show it to YT) SoCon Standings 4-week Simulator/Calculator in Excel and it's kind of fun looking at how different scenarios play out....Here's a FUN / NOT FUN one...

If Mercer wins 3 in a row (WOF, ETSU, CHATT) and then loses to Furman AND Furman wins all 4 remaining (CIT, CHATT, VMI, MER) AND Samford wins all 3 remaining (WOFF, CIT, ETSU)...we have a 2013-style 3-way Tie for 1st @ 6-2 (regardless of the outcome of any other games) between SAM, MER, and FUR....with a round robin of wins...Mercer over Sam...Sam over FU...FU over Mercer....that means the tiebreaker goes to the 3 Teams' record against #4 (right?)...which (most likely, in this scenario) would be Woffy & ETSU tied at 5-3...but Woffy beat them...so probably it'd be Woffy...who all 3 would have beaten...so then it passes to ETSU (right?)...who Sammy and Mercer, would have beaten, but FU lost to....so FU falls out...then it goes back to Head-to-Head between Mercer and Sammy (right?)...and MU gets the bid over Sammy...and over FU...who would have just beaten the Bears in the final week of the season...and probably neither Furman nor Samford would get a bid at 6-4 and 7-4 (only 6 D1 wins)....so SoCon would be a 1 bid league with Mercer in and....OH LORDY....would that one LIGHT UP some people!!!!!!!!!

...and FUBeAR would need to seek professional emotional counseling...

[PaladinFan]

Georgia Southern beats #25 App State like a drum yesterday in Statesboro (yes, a Thursday night). Attendance 19k.

GSU expands Paulson to 25,000 and is 6k under capacity for their biggest home game of the year. Life in the fast lane.

In sort of the weird parallel universe of the SunBelt, App State was ranked in the AP top 25 having beaten only 1 team with a winning record (4-3 Ark State). App seems have made a name for itself by almost not losing to power 5 teams and then beating a bunch of bad Sun Belt teams.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Georgia Southern beats #25 App State like a drum yesterday in Statesboro (yes, a Thursday night). Attendance 19k.

GSU expands Paulson to 25,000 and is 6k under capacity for their biggest home game of the year. Life in the fast lane.

In sort of the weird parallel universe of the SunBelt, App State was ranked in the AP top 25 having beaten only 1 team with a winning record (4-3 Ark State). App seems have made a name for itself by almost not losing to power 5 teams and then beating a bunch of bad Sun Belt teams.

This is the same App State team that kicked off their season by nearly knocking off Penn State. Saw the recap of the Georgia Southern game, they/re nothing without their ace QB.

[PaladinFan]

This is the same App State team that kicked off their season by nearly knocking off Penn State. Saw the recap of the Georgia Southern game, they/re nothing without their ace QB.

As I noted, App State seems every season to make headlines by almost beating a top team.

I have grown less impressed with seeing smaller programs almost upset bigger "power" programs. In college football today, I think the gulf between the upper echelon teams (Bama, Clemson and to a lesser degree, UGA, OU, OSU, etc.) is far wider than the other P5 programs with the rest of D1 football. Talent wise, there is probably a narrower gap between App State and top 10 Penn State than there is between Penn State and Alabama.

This SunBelt season seems like most of the others - you have a couple teams that will make bowl games by not beating a single good team or really even a team with a winning record.

[PaladinFan]

N

I don't think that Wofford game was an outlier. Maybe in a very macro sense. But not when you look behind the numbers. Here's why. One, Staggs is an option KILLA'. 5-0 vs Citadel including time at Charleston Southern and Furman. 1-2 vs strong Wofford teams last year and this year. So Staggs has coached defenses to a combined 6-2 record vs at least three strong Wofford teams and the very best Citadel playoff games of Houston. ( Staggs Charleston Southern team beat Citadel TWICE the same year that Citadel beat South Carolina, think about that ). Once that year CSU beat Citadel 14-6 when Citadel was able to put 23 on USC.

Now agian, if we don't have Roberts that changes everything. Yes, even our Defense to a large extent.

Two - that Woff game is one of only three games we had Roberts healthy. You saw what a difference he makes. Think if we can't throw to a back out of the backfield in that game? Maybe Wofford wins. I fully admit that. I know every play matters ... Can't keep the offense on the field bc no starting QB? Your d wears out. Roberts makes all throws a very real threat on every play... If we are Without him maybe Citadl plays an extra guy in the box. Thats a killer. Force a new QB to throw to beat you. Could get ugly In Citadl favor

The Wofford game isn't an outlier. Furman, at full steam, can put up points and have the last two years. Wofford is probably not as good as their fans think they are, and Furman proved that.

[gofurman]

The Wofford game isn't an outlier. Furman, at full steam, can put up points and have the last two years. Wofford is probably not as good as their fans think they are, and Furman proved that.

RIGHT. I am not commenting on Woff ... I'll just look at others. Look at App State last night. Without their top QB they aren't half the team they were before. See Clemson after Bryant left ... Trevor Lawrence leaves early in Syracuse ga,e and Clemson survives at home. Probably woulda lost at New York.

You cant take this macro view if a key player is missing. Furman IS that good w a full-game healthy Roberts. World-beaters ? No. But top tier SoCon easily. Easy. But some years you have the injuries at key spots. And it is the prior coaches who did leave us a QB short. That is a miss for sure. We should have a viable junior QB

that said. I think i will start tracking FU w and without Roberts. And that's NO OFFENSE to our future QBs. They are just real young right now and need another year and reps

Clemson - NO Roberts (well 3 handoffs) we lose 7-48. Granted it's Clemson
Elon - NO Roberts we lose 45-7. They are a top team
Samford - NO Roberts (out in first Quarter) we lose 38-25

ETSU - Roberts first game back we lose 27-29
WCU - Roberts we win 44-38
Wofford - Roberts we win 34-14

I believe there is a pattern there? Because according to rankings Wofford is either the best or second best FCS team we have faced. But results appear more according to who we have at QB / and also according to what offense the other team runs

i think this is factual data

[Reign of Terrier]

N

I don't think that Wofford game was an outlier. Maybe in a very macro sense. But not when you look behind the numbers. Here's why. One, Staggs is an option KILLA'. 5-0 vs Citadel including time at Charleston Southern and Furman. 1-2 vs strong Wofford teams last year and this year. So Staggs has coached defenses to a combined 6-2 record vs at least three strong Wofford teams and the very best Citadel playoff games of Houston. ( Staggs Charleston Southern team beat Citadel TWICE the same year that Citadel beat South Carolina, think about that ). Once that year CSU beat Citadel 14-6 when Citadel was able to put 23 on USC.

Now agian, if we don't have Roberts that changes everything. Yes, even our Defense to a large extent.

Two - that Woff game is one of only three games we had Roberts healthy. You saw what a difference he makes. Think if we can't throw to a back out of the backfield in that game? Maybe Wofford wins. I fully admit that. I know every play matters ... Can't keep the offense on the field bc no starting QB? Your d wears out. Roberts makes all throws a very real threat on every play... If we are Without him maybe Citadl plays an extra guy in the box. Thats a killer. Force a new QB to throw to beat you. Could get ugly In Citadl favor

Staggs is 1-3 against Wofford's option.

[FUBeAR]

I guess I must have overlooked the posts from GF & PF praising Mercer & Coach Lamb for going 2-0 in the SoCon & averaging over 44 points/game since losing their Starting QB.

[Reign of Terrier]

So...I built a little rudimentary (I would be ashamed to show it to YT) SoCon Standings 4-week Simulator/Calculator in Excel and it's kind of fun looking at how different scenarios play out....Here's a FUN / NOT FUN one...

If Mercer wins 3 in a row (WOF, ETSU, CHATT) and then loses to Furman AND Furman wins all 4 remaining (CIT, CHATT, VMI, MER) AND Samford wins all 3 remaining (WOFF, CIT, ETSU)...we have a 2013-style 3-way Tie for 1st @ 6-2 (regardless of the outcome of any other games) between SAM, MER, and FUR....with a round robin of wins...Mercer over Sam...Sam over FU...FU over Mercer....that means the tiebreaker goes to the 3 Teams' record against #4 (right?)...which (most likely, in this scenario) would be Woffy & ETSU tied at 5-3...but Woffy beat them...so probably it'd be Woffy...who all 3 would have beaten...so then it passes to ETSU (right?)...who Sammy and Mercer, would have beaten, but FU lost to....so FU falls out...then it goes back to Head-to-Head between Mercer and Sammy (right?)...and MU gets the bid over Sammy...and over FU...who would have just beaten the Bears in the final week of the season...and probably neither Furman nor Samford would get a bid at 6-4 and 7-4 (only 6 D1 wins)....so SoCon would be a 1 bid league with Mercer in and....OH LORDY....would that one LIGHT UP some people!!!!!!!!!

...and FUBeAR would need to seek professional emotional counseling...
What's great is that, as far as I'm concerned, I think Wofford will beat Western and PC so we just have to win tomorrow or against Samford and I think our playoff spot is safe regardless of this shenanigans.

Georgia Southern beats #25 App State like a drum yesterday in Statesboro (yes, a Thursday night). Attendance 19k.

GSU expands Paulson to 25,000 and is 6k under capacity for their biggest home game of the year. Life in the fast lane.

In sort of the weird parallel universe of the SunBelt, App State was ranked in the AP top 25 having beaten only 1 team with a winning record (4-3 Ark State). App seems have made a name for itself by almost not losing to power 5 teams and then beating a bunch of bad Sun Belt teams.

You're forgetting the fact that Georgia Southern went 2-10 last year and it was raining like crazy for the whole game. In 2014, Georgia Southern had 24k at home on a Thursday night against App. If you're Georgia Southern/App State the floor is much higher for the number of games you can win every year compared to the FCS, which will do a lot for recruiting. At the FCS level, they had one FBS game and 2 OOC FCS games or 1 with a sub D1, where the sub D1 would count against you. At the level they're at, they get 8 conference games (in a probably more winnable conference), 4 OOC games with at least one being P5. And they won't get punished by a committee for playing an FCS game. So, if they go .500 in the Sun Belt (which should be easy for them), they should win a minimum of 5 games every year, probably 6 or 7. If they're good, they could win 10 or 11. Meanwhile, at the FCS level, a 10-1 team is exceedingly rare.


The Wofford game isn't an outlier. Furman, at full steam, can put up points and have the last two years. Wofford is probably not as good as their fans think they are, and Furman proved that.

Again, double standard. When Furman loses it's because they're young or had a bad day or handed it to their opponent, or they're unhealthy. But when someone else has a bad day, it's because that's who they really are. Furman had a bye week to prepare for Wofford and Wofford came in with a bigger head than we should have. I was there, Wofford didn't even come out of the tunnel at the same time, which was a bad omen in itself. It can both be the case that Furman plays at a higher level with Roberts healthy AND Wofford had a bad game, thus creating a statistical outlier. We'll know more when Wofford plays Mercer this week, as they'll be the best offense we've played this year, very comparable to Furman. But as far as I'm concerned, the Socon is a tough conference where any of the top 7 are on average within 2 scores of each on any given day, and not showing up like Wofford did can be the difference between a touchdown win and a blowout.

I really don't know what Wofford has to do to prove to this conference that we are the most consistent team and worth a little more respect. We may not win every game and a perfect Socon record continues to allude us, but we're still consistently making the playoffs and winning socon championships and winning close games.

Just because the fans expect to win, doesn't mean it's overconfidence. This year, we have more double digit wins against teams that aren't Western Carolina or VMI than any other team. We've beaten the most teams with a winning record by two scores. Letting up 380 yards of offense is a bad day for our defense, when it's the norm for 2/3 of the conference. None of this means we'll beat Mercer tomorrow or even make the playoffs, but at the very least, but so far we're better than we were last year and that team was the best team in the conference, and you can measure that by margin of victory, third down conversion percentage, and yardage on both sides of the ball. You have to be pretty obstinate to not acknowledge the latter point.

[Mocs123]

Who is discounting Wofford? I think they are the best team in the SoCon this year and will win the Autobid.

[FUBeAR]

Probably right about Woffy only having to really worry about picking off Mercer OR Samford to make the Playoffs. I recommend ‘saving up’ and beating Samford.

Mercer will not be ‘the best O Woffy has faced’ if the Bears’ somewhat inconsistent OL can’t contain Woffy’s Front 3 / Front 7. They don’t have to ‘dominate,’ by any means (and they won’t), but they cannot let dudes just run free as they did vs. CIT the whole game & early at Yale. If they can just ‘body-up’ on Woffy’s front, we’ll have us a very interesting ball game to watch. If not, Woffy may win by 3 or 4 scores.

My heartiest FU to GaSou & Appy...hope both of them rot in the mediocre hell of Tuesday night G5 Sludge Belt Football. BTW - FCS Forum & SoCon thread here. Why are we discussing such irrelevant irrelevance?

There’s no Visiting Team “tunnel” at Paladin Stadium. Does Woffy bring their own tunnel when they are on the road?

[Mocs123]

I have always thought of Wofford as having some really good years followed by some average years and then some more really good years, but you are probably right that Wofford is the most consistent good team (VMI has the worst team in the SoCon 3 out of the last 4 years they have been back). Wofford has averaged 3.4th place in the conference since 2009 which leads all teams followed by Chattanooga which averaged 3.7.

In SoCon wins both Wofford and Chattanooga have averaged 5 SoCon wins since 2009.

During that same time Wofford has been to the playoffs 5 times posting a 1-0 record in round 1, a 4-1 record in round 2, and 0-4 in the Quarterfinals. Chattanooga has been to the playoffs 3 times in that span and is 2-0 in the first round, 1-2 in the second round, and 0-1 in the Quarterfinals

[Mocs123]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29360&stc=1http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=29360&stc=1Of course they do

[Reign of Terrier]

I have always thought of Wofford as having some really good years followed by some average years and then some more really good years, but you are probably right that Wofford is the most consistent good team (VMI has the worst team in the SoCon 3 out of the last 4 years they have been back). Wofford has averaged 3.4th place in the conference since 2009 which leads all teams followed by Chattanooga which averaged 3.7.

In SoCon wins both Wofford and Chattanooga have averaged 5 SoCon wins since 2009.

During that same time Wofford has been to the playoffs 5 times posting a 1-0 record in round 1, a 4-1 record in round 2, and 0-4 in the Quarterfinals. Chattanooga has been to the playoffs 3 times in that span and is 2-0 in the first round, 1-2 in the second round, and 0-1 in the QuarterfinalsYeah, thanks for the props. It's gets better if you realize how bad we were between 2013-2015.

My point is, until Chattanooga gets back to where they we're ~3 years ago (they're getting there!) OR someone else steps up *consistently.*

I mention chatt not because it's you I'm @ right now, but because they were the ones to consistently step up post App/GSU. Last year was a step back.

Between 2007 and 2012, with some exception, App, GSU and Wofford were the consistent teams. I'm not trying to chest beat too hard (I learned from Furman this year), but at the very least, what we've seen in the last 2.5 years suggests Wofford's probably where they have been.

It's kind of misleading to say Wofford's not as good as their fans say they are, because I'm probably the only consistent one here and I've already harped on and shown how close the top 7 are.

I think Wofford is better than we were last year and the Furman game is a perfect storm. I think that means we'll make the playoffs at this point, but the socon is improved and good enough to where Wofford's improvement won't say much. In my case, I think Wofford is as good as an 8-3 or 9-2 record, probably not winning either of the next 2 by no more than 14 points, if we win them at all.

I think that, the possibility of dropping one more game, and that Wofford is the most consistent team in the conference (especially on defense) AND the Furman game was something of a perfect storm are not inconsistent with each other.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Probably right about Woffy only having to really worry about picking off Mercer OR Samford to make the Playoffs. I recommend ‘saving up’ and beating Samford.

Mercer will not be ‘the best O Woffy has faced’ if the Bears’ somewhat inconsistent OL can’t contain Woffy’s Front 3 / Front 7. They don’t have to ‘dominate,’ by any means (and they won’t), but they cannot let dudes just run free as they did vs. CIT the whole game & early at Yale. If they can just ‘body-up’ on Woffy’s front, we’ll have us a very interesting ball game to watch. If not, Woffy may win by 3 or 4 scores.

My heartiest FU to GaSou & Appy...hope both of them rot in the mediocre hell of Tuesday night G5 Sludge Belt Football. BTW - FCS Forum & SoCon thread here. Why are we discussing such irrelevant irrelevance?

There’s no Visiting Team “tunnel” at Paladin Stadium. Does Woffy bring their own tunnel when they are on the road?My point was they filed out of the locker room collectively over the course of a minute. Very weird. Very disorganized.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

I guess I must have overlooked the posts from GF & PF praising Mercer & Coach Lamb for going 2-0 in the SoCon & averaging over 44 points/game since losing their Starting QB.

I'm fairly sure my high school could put up at least 35 against WCU and VMI with their backup QB.

[Mocs123]

I have always said Wofford (Mike Ayers) got the most out of their athletes as they are never the most talented team in the conference. Samford (Hatcher) gets the least out of their athletes. They are always very talented. Chattanooga is closer to Samford than Wofford in that regard.

[Reign of Terrier]

I have always said Wofford (Mike Ayers) got the most out of their athletes as they are never the most talented team in the conference. Samford (Hatcher) gets the least out of their athletes. They are always very talented. Chattanooga is closer to Samford than Wofford in that regard.

I don't know about that. I think people underestimated how top-heavy the Socon used to be. A lot of people think the Socon is down relative to previous years, but the bottom and mid-tier is much better. At this level, success is a virtuous cycle. You can recruit relatively better if you win, which helps you win, which helps you recruit relatively better. When you have consistent programs as the Socon did with App, GSU and Furman/Wofford in the last 20 years, the bottom tier couldn't insert themselves into the cycle.

It's no coincidence that once App State and Georgia Southern left the conference and Wofford decided to be medicore for 3 years that the perrennial bottom feeders (no offense) were able to improve drastically with Chattanooga, being the best positioned, winning some titles. Then they stepped into the virtuous cycle.

Part of the reason Mercer, ETSU, Chatt, Citadel and Western are more competitive than they were, say, 10 years ago (sans not existing) is that they believe they can win. Maybe you could include Samford in that bunch as well. Wofford seemingly choosing mediocrity for 3 years instead of playing at the higher level we are now did a huge favor for the conference IMO.

Before Huesman came to UTC and App State/GSU left, a lot of the teams in the conference suffered from what I think of as OVC syndrome: a bunch of programs that were certainly not underfunded but had no enthusiasm because they had no tradition of winning. We had more teams make the playoffs in a 4 year span (5) than I think we've ever had in Socon history. So, I don't think Chattanooga or Samford are underperforming, they just haven't reached their peak yet. I'd like to think Wofford hasn't either, but in some ways finishing multiple consecutive years with 9 or 10 wins is a peak, we just have to make a playoff run.

In a counterintuitive way, I think App/GSU leaving the socon did more good for the socon in the mid and long term than people think.

[PaladinFan]

Furman hasn't been pulling its weight either.

There is literally no excuse for Furman to have been this bad for this long. They have facilities, a great location, tradition of winning, financial backing, a beautiful campus, top academics, a great value for education, wedged between several major metro areas, and easy access to great recruiting. Furman's other athletic programs have managed to get on just fine and have even improved significantly over the years.

Footballl just can't seem to re-establish itself as top program. They'll take a step forward and then a step back. They'll whallop a top 5 team and then have their lack of depth exposed the very next week.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman hasn't been pulling its weight either.

There is literally no excuse for Furman to have been this bad for this long. They have facilities, a great location, tradition of winning, financial backing, a beautiful campus, top academics, a great value for education, wedged between several major metro areas, and easy access to great recruiting. Furman's other athletic programs have managed to get on just fine and have even improved significantly over the years.

Footballl just can't seem to re-establish itself as top program. They'll take a step forward and then a step back. They'll whallop a top 5 team and then have their lack of depth exposed the very next week.

You also have the biggest endowment in the conference (literally, some folks at Wofford would commit some heinous financial crimes to have it, I know) and the good sense to endow coordinator salaries.

I think the reason Furman has subsided as a program are complicated, but nevertheless fixable. The Socon is going to be tough but the only way we can prove its toughness is by going on a collective run and scheduling tough OOC games. The teams that make playoff runs (of late) haven't scheduled tough OOC (okay, maybe that's just Wofford), while the teams that schedule tough OOC don't do playoff games (lately, because they lose to Wofford).

[FUBeAR]

I'm fairly sure my high school could put up at least 35 against WCU and VMI with their backup QB.
Doesn’t seem like praise. Maybe I’m just reading it wrong.


BTW - IRL, a 1A Private HS (even one in GA) wouldn’t score a single point on WCU or VMI in 11 games...with Tom Brady at QB.

[Reign of Terrier]

I have mad respect for VMI because they scrap like crazy, but their offense isn't great either. It's actually about as good as ETSU's. The difference is that VMI gets 15 possessions a game *on average.*

If you score 30% of the time on 18 possessions, you will score at least 20 points (or so), but more likely 30-40, if you're scoring touchdowns. VMI gets in these situations because their defense is so bad that they get off the field fast and puts their offense back on it.

VMI's defense is worse than Western's. When Wofford scored 50something and held VMI below 3 scores, especially when they turned up the stats in the following weeks, I thought Wofford's defense was something special and our offense had unlocked something YUGE. Now, I just think we're only slightly better. Wofford basically scored on like 6 consecutive possessions in the first half and put it out of reach early. That's on their defense, but we forced a certain amount of 3 and outs during that time too and had VMI sustained more than one long drive, that wipes out at least 2 or 3 scores for Wofford just because of time, and it's a different, albeit still difficult ball game.

My gut reaction is that VMI with the defense they had last year would probably win a game or two, but I'm just not sure.

[Mocs123]

Interesting observation about VMI. I guess you’re right, if you give the offense enough possessions they are bound to score.

[PaladinFan]

You also have the biggest endowment in the conference (literally, some folks at Wofford would commit some heinous financial crimes to have it, I know) and the good sense to endow coordinator salaries.

I think the reason Furman has subsided as a program are complicated, but nevertheless fixable. The Socon is going to be tough but the only way we can prove its toughness is by going on a collective run and scheduling tough OOC games. The teams that make playoff runs (of late) haven't scheduled tough OOC (okay, maybe that's just Wofford), while the teams that schedule tough OOC don't do playoff games (lately, because they lose to Wofford).

I mentioned this on Furman's board, but I'm sort of at the point of being tired of watching play a slobbernocker schedule while teams pad their resumes with wins over lesser programs.

I mean, if strength of schedule really doesn't seem to matter that much (I believe it doesn't), why keep scheduling up?

[Reign of Terrier]

I mentioned this on Furman's board, but I'm sort of at the point of being tired of watching play a slobbernocker schedule while teams pad their resumes with wins over lesser programs.

I mean, if strength of schedule really doesn't seem to matter that much (I believe it doesn't), why keep scheduling up?

Just looking at Furman's schedule through the last decade or so, two things stick out: 1) streakiness (Hendrix hasn't shaken it still) and 2) tough scheduling. There's a lot of 3 and 4 win seasons that would have been at .500 or better with a weaker schedule.

I think playing a weaker schedule, for all it's faults, helps create consistency and develops players, which in turns make you a better football team. That's why I'm a little bit apologetic for teams that schedule weak and are on the bubble. I won't go so far to say that's the reason why Wofford's been successful lately (the last two years have been our toughest OOC...and that is not saying much), but seeing that Furman has been very inconsistent in the last decade (plus?), I think there's a good argument to be made.

[UpstateBison]

I mentioned this on Furman's board, but I'm sort of at the point of being tired of watching play a slobbernocker schedule while teams pad their resumes with wins over lesser programs.

I mean, if strength of schedule really doesn't seem to matter that much (I believe it doesn't), why keep scheduling up?

It does not matter for the conference AQ. I think it matters for at-large bids. It definitely matters if you want a shot at a NC. SHSU/JSU are prime examples. Beat up on your weak conference and get blown out by the first good team you see in the playoffs.


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[Reign of Terrier]

It does not matter for the conference AQ. I think it matters for at-large bids. It definitely matters if you want a shot at a NC. SHSU/JSU are prime examples. Beat up on your weak conference and get blown out by the first good team you see in the playoffs.


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I disagree because Jacksonville State and Sam Houston are different. The southland conference has a tradition of being competitive in the playoffs. The OVC does not. And if North Dakota State didn't exist (I know, HUGE counterfactual), Sam Houston would probably be a top 3 program right now, not just a top 10.

EWU last year casts doubt on the OOC hypothesis. *Maybe* that wouldn't be the case if the Big Sky had more teams not only making the playoffs but also winning.

[UpstateBison]

I disagree because Jacksonville State and Sam Houston are different. The southland conference has a tradition of being competitive in the playoffs. The OVC does not. And if North Dakota State didn't exist (I know, HUGE counterfactual), Sam Houston would probably be a top 3 program right now, not just a top 10.

EWU last year casts doubt on the OOC hypothesis. *Maybe* that wouldn't be the case if the Big Sky had more teams not only making the playoffs but also winning.

I was not talking about conferences. I was talking about individual teams. One might argue that SHSU makes the longest run because they are regionalized in the Southland. Their last 4 playoff losses have been 215-36, I think. I am not thinking that is top 3.


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[Reign of Terrier]

I was not talking about conferences. I was talking about individual teams. One might argue that SHSU makes the longest run because they are regionalized in the Southland. Their last 4 playoff losses have been 215-36, I think. I am not thinking that is top 3.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkFair enough. I don't have Sam Houston's post season failures memorized, but I think some of their problems derive from the prominence of spread offenses which in effect hurt one's defenses, but that's a separate subject that I haven't researched enough

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[PaladinFan]

I was not talking about conferences. I was talking about individual teams. One might argue that SHSU makes the longest run because they are regionalized in the Southland. Their last 4 playoff losses have been 215-36, I think. I am not thinking that is top 3.


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Look at Kennesaw's schedule. It is beyond bad.

[FUBeAR]

You’ll like this post YT.

Someone posted something somewhere about WCU’s D NOT being the worst in the country & clicking on the link drew my eye to the Mercer logo I saw there, so I dug a little further...

Out of 124 FCS Teams...

3RD DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 121
4TH DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 105
FIRST DOWNS DEFENSE 115
RUSHING DEFENSE 100
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED 121
SCORING DEFENSE 101
TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE 112
TOTAL DEFENSE 118

...these are Mercer’s National Rankings.

Is it too late to change my 31-28 prediction of a Mercer win to a 77-3 Wofford win?

[UpstateBison]

You’ll like this post YT.

Someone posted something somewhere about WCU’s D NOT being the worst in the country & clicking on the link drew my eye to the Mercer logo I saw there, so I dug a little further...

Out of 124 FCS Teams...

3RD DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 121
4TH DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 105
FIRST DOWNS DEFENSE 115
RUSHING DEFENSE 100
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED 121
SCORING DEFENSE 101
TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE 112
TOTAL DEFENSE 118

...these are Mercer’s National Rankings.

Is it too late to change my 31-28 prediction of a Mercer win to a 77-3 Wofford win?

I was at the WCU-GWU game. GWU has to have the worst defense in FCS. I apologize in advance but WCU’s offense is not great. I guess it could have been just that game.


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[gofurman]

What's great is that, as far as I'm concerned, I think Wofford will beat Western and PC so we just have to win tomorrow or against Samford and I think our playoff spot is safe regardless of this shenanigans.


Again, double standard. When Furman loses it's because they're young or had a bad day or handed it to their opponent, or they're unhealthy. But when someone else has a bad day, it's because that's who they really are. Furman had a bye week to prepare for Wofford and Wofford came in with a bigger head than we should have. I was there, Wofford didn't even come out of the tunnel at the same time, which was a bad omen in itself. It can both be the case that Furman plays at a higher level with Roberts healthy AND Wofford had a bad game, thus creating a statistical outlier. We'll know more when Wofford plays Mercer this week, as they'll be the best offense we've played this year, very comparable to Furman. But as far as I'm concerned, the Socon is a tough conference where any of the top 7 are on average within 2 scores of each on any given day, and not showing up like Wofford did can be the difference between a touchdown win and a blowout.

I really don't know what Wofford has to do to prove to this conference that we are the most consistent team and worth a little more respect. We may not win every game and a perfect Socon record continues to allude us, but we're still consistently making the playoffs and winning socon championships and winning close games.



Wofford absolutely HAS been the most consistent the past couple of years !

Furman IS young and hurt at key positions right now - itappearsHendrix is building our depth as many of our players are Sophomores or younger ... Now that Roberts MAY be out only ONE player on O is a senior (Dirks at FB). Every linebacker - all 8 - return. Etc. IF Roberts can't go that's just a tough go. Witness App State last night missing just the QB and RB. GSU destroyed them

No double standard. Wofford is healthy. A few years back Wofford had a horrible year in dealing with health

I agree the bye week really helps anyone, this year Wofford had been playing and we were prepping an extra week for Woff ... Same thing Probably helped Wofford in the playoff game last year. Furman had been on the road two consecutive weeks at Sam and Elon and Wofford was able to heal up and prep two weeks for that playoff game. I agree

Those are all facts

I try to be as objective as possible

[gofurman]

Furman hasn't been pulling its weight either.

There is literally no excuse for Furman to have been this bad for this long. They have facilities, a great location, tradition of winning, financial backing, a beautiful campus, top academics, a great value for education, wedged between several major metro areas, and easy access to great recruiting. Furman's other athletic programs have managed to get on just fine and have even improved significantly over the years.

Footballl just can't seem to re-establish itself as top program. They'll take a step forward and then a step back. They'll whallop a top 5 team and then have their lack of depth exposed the very next week.

Though during Lamb tenure etc the funding for football was not there. No recruiting budget etc. you CANNOT win without top support

[gofurman]

I guess I must have overlooked the posts from GF & PF praising Mercer & Coach Lamb for going 2-0 in the SoCon & averaging over 44 points/game since losing their Starting QB.

FUBeAR your backup QB was the REIGNING SOCON FRESHMAN PLAYER OF THE YEAR. your BACKUP. I was actually shocked when he didn't start this year.

That's quite a different scenario. Good for Mercer w developing QB depth. Mercer probably has the best QB TANDEM in the SoCon. Both as rFR too.

That's something my Paladins are working on... Need a year or so

[Reign of Terrier]

You’ll like this post YT.

Someone posted something somewhere about WCU’s D NOT being the worst in the country & clicking on the link drew my eye to the Mercer logo I saw there, so I dug a little further...

Out of 124 FCS Teams...

3RD DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 121
4TH DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE 105
FIRST DOWNS DEFENSE 115
RUSHING DEFENSE 100
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED 121
SCORING DEFENSE 101
TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE 112
TOTAL DEFENSE 118

...these are Mercer’s National Rankings.

Is it too late to change my 31-28 prediction of a Mercer win to a 77-3 Wofford win?

wait wait wait wait wait....is this for real? Are these real numbers? Holy ****.


I was at the WCU-GWU game. GWU has to have the worst defense in FCS. I apologize in advance but WCU’s offense is not great. I guess it could have been just that game.


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In Gardner Webb's defense, they are absolutely depleted at DL. Against Wofford they converted an OL to nose as they had lost like 5 DL to injury.

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer's defense is behind Gardner Webb. I know that they played teams that will throw it all over the yard (Western, VMI, Samford, Memphis, Yale)...but still.

Every team except Jacksonville had over 400 yards of offense against them...that's bad.

I am tempted to be a little bit more confident in this one but I refuse.

Does Mercer have a new defensive coordinator this year? Have they changed offensive philosophy to more of a spread?

[gofurman]

Wofford absolutely HAS been the most consistent the past couple of years !

Furman IS young and hurt at key positions right now - itappearsHendrix is building our depth as many of our players are Sophomores or younger ... Now that Roberts MAY be out only ONE player on O is a senior (Dirks at FB). Every linebacker - all 8 - return. Etc. IF Roberts can't go that's just a tough go. Witness App State last night missing just the QB and RB. GSU destroyed them

No double standard. Wofford is healthy. A few years back Wofford had a horrible year in dealing with health

I agree the bye week really helps anyone, this year Wofford had been playing and we were prepping an extra week for Woff ... Same thing Probably helped Wofford in the playoff game last year. Furman had been on the road two consecutive weeks at Sam and Elon and Wofford was able to heal up and prep two weeks for that playoff game. I agree

Those are all facts

I try to be as objective as possible

I hit 500 posts. Now I know NEXT to nothing. Lol

[FUBeAR]

Mercer's defense is behind Gardner Webb. I know that they played teams that will throw it all over the yard (Western, VMI, Samford, Memphis, Yale)...but still.

Every team except Jacksonville had over 400 yards of offense against them...that's bad.

I am tempted to be a little bit more confident in this one but I refuse.

Does Mercer have a new defensive coordinator this year? Have they changed offensive philosophy to more of a spread?

Same DC
Offense is a bit more spreadish, but they still are runnin' the ball...2nd highest Yards/Rush in the SoCon at 4.98



FCS RANK
TEAM
G
RUSH
RUSH YDS
YDS /RUSH
RUSH TD
YPG


3
Wofford
7
359
2480
6.91
23
354.3


7
The Citadel
6
372
1694
4.55
18
282.3


24
Western Caro.
7
296
1526
5.16
11
218.0


35
Furman
6
288
1157
4.02
10
192.8


60
Mercer
7
229
1140
4.98
16
162.9


77
Samford
8
251
1125
4.48
13
140.6


87
ETSU
8
268
1040
3.88
13
130.0


109
Chattanooga
7
200
689
3.45
8
98.4


124
VMI
7
195
333
1.71
7
47.6



More of a zone full-time zone scheme than it used to be with the new OC - they mixed zone and gap/man schemes in the past. Possible correlation, but I don't think so. It's not like they 'forgot' how to play D against option teams or that they've gotten soft from playing 7 on 7 every day in practice - not with 5-8/235 Tyray "TD" Devezin putting his special brand of HAMMERING on them.

Lost 3 Starters - an All SoCon ILB, who is playing in the CFL now, an All SoCon (at some time/some team) OLB, and a DLman that was a bit of a pass rush specialist - All good Players, but no SUPERStars - Replacements are, I think, adequate/same or better, with the possible exception of the ILB.

They just haven't been able to get off the field and haven't been getting turnovers as readily as they did last year. Stats are a little skewed because they, apparently, sent Paladin Fan's HS's D to play against Memphis, whose O would be ranked #1 in FCS/ is #27 in FBS per Massey, but Furman played Clemson, who would also be #1 in FCS, and is #9 in FBS. Since Memphis they aren't tackling poorly. They just get beat by a 'little bit' here and there on 3rd downs...and then that adds up to more yds/pts/etc.

Not sure which way the causality might run on this, but they have played some of the top teams in 3rd down conversion % - Yale is #1 in the country and they have also played #7, #18, #23, and #33 - so 5 of their 6 FCS games have been against Teams that are pretty good at STAYING ON the field. No rest for the weary though - Woffy is #21.

So...I don't know...I think they are better on D than the numbers show, but if they aren't - that will certainly be exposed like a gaping mortar wound in the next 4 weeks.

[PaladinFan]

With unequal schedules, the statistics can sometimes be misleading. They aren’t everything, but they aren’t nothing either.

The longer I watch football, you see that third down percentage on both sides of the ball perhaps become the most critical marker of winning and losing. Your offfense has to stay on the field, and your defense has to get off the field.

[ElCid]

With unequal schedules, the statistics can sometimes be misleading. They aren’t everything, but they aren’t nothing either.

The longer I watch football, you see that third down percentage on both sides of the ball perhaps become the most critical marker of winning and losing. Your offfense has to stay on the field, and your defense has to get off the field.

Yeah, until the season is over, the stats can be misleading depending on the order of opponents.

[FUBeAR]

With unequal schedules, the statistics can sometimes be misleading. They aren’t everything, but they aren’t nothing either.

The longer I watch football, you see that third down percentage on both sides of the ball perhaps become the most critical marker of winning and losing. Your offfense has to stay on the field, and your defense has to get off the field.Yeah - I'm kinda thinking the same thing...so...if you create a Stat - "3rd Down Differential" subtracting Opponents' 3rd Down Conversion Rate from a Team's 3rd Down Conversion Rate, your SoCon PowerPoll would look like this...



Rnk
TEAM
G
3rd Diff


1
Samford
8
0.139


2
Wofford
7
0.126


3
WCU
7
0.021


4
Chatt
7
0.011


5
CIT
6
-0.022


6
Furman
6
-0.028


7
ETSU
8
-0.051


8
Mercer
7
-0.099


9
VMI
7
-0.121



Could probably add a bunch of explanatory notes...
* SAM can move the ball until they get inside the 20...doesn't mean they can score though.
* WCU's 3rd down Diff. may fall precipitously as the Total Cupcake opening 3 game schedule has a smaller effect
* Chatt's 2 OOC Opponents are very near the bottom of FCS in 3rd down conversions (see all OOC FCS Opponents' 3rd Down Diff. below)
* Anyone that played Gardner-Webb benefited from that (see below)
* Mercer - ???? - Yale & Memphis?
* VMI - they are VMI



Team
G
3rd Diff


KSU
7
0.232


Yale
6
0.179


Towson
7
-0.003


Elon
7
-0.064


JaxU
6
-0.07


UTM
7
-0.092


G-W
7
-0.199


TTU
7
-0.227

[FUBeAR]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqhlFvpWwAEywOO.jpg:large

[PaladinFan]

http://www.furmansportsreport.com/2018/10/qb-questions-abound-as-furman-visits.html

If I understand this, even the Furman QBs probably won't know who the starter is until right before the game.

My money is on JeMar Lincoln.

[PaladinFan]

http://www.furmansportsreport.com/2018/10/qb-questions-abound-as-furman-visits.html

If I understand this, even the Furman QBs probably won't know who the starter is until right before the game.

My money is on JeMar Lincoln.

My money is safe.

https://twitter.com/SoConJohn22/status/1056240105290121216

[PaladinFan]

If you are into uniform aesthetics, you won't find many better looking games than Citadel's baby blue on white against Furman's road look.

[UpstateBison]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqhlFvpWwAEywOO.jpg:large

Thank you for this pic. Thank you Coach Ayers.


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[PaladinFan]

Furman marches right down on their second drive. 7-3 Paladins.

Lincoln looks really good running the option.

Also, I think Furman's trio of Watkins, Wynn, and Morehead are going to terrorize this conference for the next few years. Those are some really good looking running backs that seem to get better each week.

[PaladinFan]

Looks like Furman will end up giving Clemson a better game on the road than FSU did at home.

[Reign of Terrier]

So this Mercer-Wofford game is NOT what I expected in a neutral to positive way

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[FUBeAR]

I was wrong. Mercer’s D has completely forgotten how to defend the option.

[PaladinFan]

I was wrong. Mercer’s D has completely forgotten how to defend the option.

On the other end of the state, Chad Staggs looks well on his way to keeping his reputation as a DC who can defend the option.

[FUBeAR]

So this Mercer-Wofford game is NOT what I expected in a neutral to positive way

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TapatalkSo...you didn’t expect Wofford’s SoCon leading D to be able to shut down a Team playing with a 1-legged backup QB & without their Starting RB?

BTW - did Yannity get drunk at the Ayers event. He has been HORRIBLE?

[Reign of Terrier]

So...you didn’t expect Wofford’s SoCon leading D to be able to shut down a Team playing with a 1-legged backup QB & without their Starting RB?

BTW - did Yannity get drunk at the Ayers event. He has been HORRIBLE?Yeah, mad props to Riley. He's tough as nails, playing on a bum ankle.

Of course I'm bedazzled by TJ Luther catching 2 TDs

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[Reign of Terrier]

I'm serious when I say I really want Mercer to be good

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[FUBeAR]

Wow - nice tackle by CIT’s Right OG on the 91 yd TD Pass after the 81 yard FU punt.

make-up call though...they called Furman for holding on the next Offensive play xthumbsupx

[FUBeAR]

I'm serious when I say I really want Mercer to be good

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TapatalkThey aren’t, sadly and surprisingly (to FUBeAR), on D & aren’t on O without their Players

[ElCid]

Wow - nice tackle by CIT’s Right OT on the 91 yd TD Pass after the 81 yard FU punt.

It wasn't that bad and the QB was releasing well before he would have gotten there. In other words, good no call. Good pass and better catch.

[PaladinFan]

It wasn't that bad and the QB was releasing well before he would have gotten there. In other words, good no call. Good pass and better catch.

You must be joking.

The hold had nothign to do with the open receiver, but the RT grabbed Furman's linebacker around his neck and spun him around. That's the most obvious hold I think I've ever seen.

Again, still a pass and catch, but it should have been a penalty without question.

[FUBeAR]

It wasn't that bad and the QB was releasing well before he would have gotten there. In other words, good no call. Good pass and better catch.you must have been with yannity at the ayers event.

[ElCid]

You must be joking.

The hold had nothign to do with the open receiver, but the RT grabbed Furman's linebacker around his neck and spun him around. That's the most obvious hold I think I've ever seen.

Again, still a pass and catch, but it should have been a penalty without question.

Well they only showed it once so I will go back and check later. But from what I saw it was eh.

[PaladinFan]

Well they only showed it once so I will go back and check later. But from what I saw it was eh.

It was plain in real time.

- - - Updated - - -

Good grief.

Furman has 4 sophomores on the OL and a backfield full of freshmen. It shows.

Another one of those games when Harris Roberts would make the difference.

[ElCid]

It was plain in real time.

- - - Updated - - -

Good grief.

Furman has 4 sophomores on the OL and a backfield full of freshmen. It shows.

Another one of those games when Harris Roberts would make the difference.

The fumble was disheartening, but our D came through. Not sure I've seen anyone have a 3rd and 28 in a while.

[FUBeAR]

Well they only showed it once so I will go back and check later. But from what I saw it was eh.
They showed a replay - how I saw it was RG instead of RT.

Ridiculously obvious hold on QB’s blind side. Whether or not he would have crushed the QB and separated him from the ball (probably) is immaterial. A hold is a hold & that was GHASTLY!

[Reign of Terrier]

So I'm starting to think the secondary is Wofford's strength. My private prediction was 41-17 and with 1:59 left that's close at 42-14.

Big thing to look at going into next week against Samford will be injuries. Miller Moseley was held out of the second half but I'm not sure what the injury was (concussion?)

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[thirdgendin]

They showed a replay - how I saw it was RG instead of RT.

Ridiculously obvious hold on QB’s blind side. Whether or not he would have crushed the QB and separated him from the ball (probably) is immaterial. A hold is a hold & that was GHASTLY!

When the WR was running down the field, I didn't actually worry too much because I was that certain that there would be a flag for holding.

Paladins are inside the 5 now, down 3.

[ElCid]

Both Furman and The Citadel have crazy good punters. Furman guy has an 81 yarder. Did guy has a bunch inside 20.

[Reign of Terrier]

So Bobby Lamb called two timeouts with less than a minute left, down 28, but scored with 5 seconds left for the definitive garbage time score.

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[FUBeAR]

So Bobby Lamb called two timeouts with less than a minute left, down 28, but scored with 5 seconds left for the definitive garbage time score.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TapatalkRight thing to do with some of those 3rd Teamers/Walk-on’s in the game. Put yourself in those kids’ shoes for a minute & you’ll get it.

[PaladinFan]

Adrian Hope just put the Citadel to sleep.

[ElCid]

Wow, Black just fumbled and Furman scored. Unbelievable. Dogs needed to only drive it with ball control. We have been great in not turning it over all year and we drop 2 in this game. Uhggggg.

[FUBeAR]

Another tackle by CIT RG - called it this time. Need to move that dude to D. He’s a SURE Tackler!!

[Reign of Terrier]

Right thing to do with some of those 3rd Teamers/Walk-on’s in the game. Put yourself in those kids’ shoes for a minute & you’ll get it.That is true I guess

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[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU down 1 to Western Carolina at the half. Not much to say about this one because each team has only had the ball like 4 times.

VMI got an early pick 6 on Chattanooga but the mocs climbed back and it's tied at 21 at the half.

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[PaladinFan]

That is true I guess

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Besides, they're his timeouts. Use 'em if he wants to.

[PaladinFan]

Impressive day from Furman's defense. One lapse on the long touchdown play, but other than that, the Citadel really had nothing on offense all day.

An interesting game plan from the Bulldogs. They came out knowing that Furman has difficulty in pass coverage, and threw it early and often.

Whale of a game from JeMar Lincoln. He looked more comfortable in the offense (which is more designed to his skill set) than Grainger. First time starter on the road in Charleston and got the win.

[FUBeAR]

That is true I guess

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Frost is a walk-on. How do you think his parents feel about that TD pass? He may never see the field again...

...or he could start against ETSU next week. Hmmmm?

[gofurman]

When the WR was running down the field, I didn't actually worry too much because I was that certain that there would be a flag for holding.

Paladins are inside the 5 now, down 3.

Of all the holds I have seen this year that Citadel hold to allow the bomb was the worst no-call of the year. I even screamd 'hold' BEFORE the QB threw the ball.. before I knew it was a great throw and catch by Citadel (which it was) - that was a HUGE Hold... good grief

[Reign of Terrier]

Frost is a walk-on. How do you think his parents feel about that TD pass? He may never see the field again...

...or he could start against ETSU next week. Hmmmm?You don't need to tell me twice. I quit football because my coaches wouldn't even give me practice time so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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[gofurman]

South Carolina FCS Champions - Furman
Furman 28-17 over Citadel
Furman 34-14 over Wofford.

xdrunkyx

all in fun.

Good job with our 3rd and 4th QB to win on the road.

GREAT JOB DEFENSE - Chad Staggs as a defensive coordinator has STILL never lost to the Citadel. 6-0 vs the Citadel - He beat the Citadel twice at Charleston Southern the year Citadel beat University of South Carolina.


EDIT - YT set me straight.. said Staggs is 6-0 vs Citadel but 1-3 vs Wofford (I thought it was 1-2)..
So Staggs is 7-3 vs Very good Wofford and Citadel teams over the past few years. Most of those are playoff teams.

Curious - did Staggs D this year hold both Wofford and Citadel to their lowest scores in FCS ? really am curious.

[Reign of Terrier]

Some of y'all will hate me for this but I'm hoping VMI's exclusive socon win is against Furman

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[FUBeAR]

VMI seemed to ACTIVELY TRY to lose a game they could have won.

#BeatTusculum

[FUBeAR]

I’d trust Tyrie & go for this...instead of trusting the D. Kinda like going for 2 for the win on the road. We’ll see how it works out.

[wcugrad95]

WCU goes ultra-conservative on their last 2 series. See if the D can keep up a good day. Luckily ETSU for some reason wasted all 3 of their time outs.

[FUBeAR]

ETSU got back to the spot (with 1st & 10) that WCU didn’t go for it on 4th & 1 foot...that would have ended the game. Shoulda gone for it Coach.

(FUBeAR is available for consulting...at a price)