Massey Projected Wins/Playoff Outlook

[BisonTru]

I did this a few weeks ago and thought I'd share an updated version. This is Massey's estimated wins remaining plus the D1 wins teams have already banked. I am fairly confident in this scenario on the first 9 at larges. Five more at larges would need to come from teams I put in the bubble. They are ranked by Massey.

I'd love to hear what people feel the remaining at larges would be in this outlook.

Green = Est. 8+ wins, Yellow = Est. 7 wins, Orange = Est. 6 wins, Red = Est. 5 wins or less





D1 Wins
Est. Wins Left
Est. Losses Left
Projected Wins



N Dakota StMissouri Valley
6-01.000
6
4.78
0.22
10.78
MVFC Auto


James MadisonColonial
5-20.714
5
3.61
0.39
8.61
CAA Auto


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
4-10.800
4
3.56
1.44
7.56
AL1


Illinois StMissouri Valley
5-10.833
4
2.91
2.09
6.91
AL2


E WashingtonBig Sky
5-20.714
4
3.44
0.56
7.44
Big Sky Auto


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
3-30.500
3
3.21
1.79
6.21
Bubble


TowsonColonial
5-10.833
5
2.65
2.35
7.65
AL3


Weber StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
3.71
1.29
7.71
AL4


ElonColonial
4-20.667
4
2.67
1.33
6.67
AL9


UC DavisBig Sky
5-10.833
5
3.19
1.81
8.19
AL5


DelawareColonial
4-20.667
4
3.47
1.53
7.47
AL8


ColgatePatriot League
6-01.000
6
2.99
1.01
8.99
Patroit Auto


Jacksonville StOH Valley
5-10.833
5
3.91
1.09
8.91
OVC Auto


Stony BrookColonial
5-20.714
5
2.05
1.95
7.05
Bubble


Missouri StMissouri Valley
4-20.667
4
1.68
3.32
5.68
Bubble


South DakotaMissouri Valley
3-30.500
3
2.25
2.75
5.25
Out


KennesawBig South
6-10.857
5
3.16
0.84
8.16
Big South Auto


Idaho StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.83
2.17
6.83
Bubble


MaineColonial
4-20.667
4
2.83
2.17
6.83
Bubble


North DakotaBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.94
2.06
6.94
Bubble


VillanovaColonial
3-40.429
3
2.62
1.38
5.62
Bubble


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
2-40.333
2
2.53
2.47
4.53
Out


Montana StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.55
2.45
6.55
Bubble


Cent ArkansasSouthland
4-20.667
4
4.06
0.94
8.06
Southland Auto


Rhode IslandColonial
4-20.667
4
2.31
2.69
6.31
Bubble


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
3-30.500
3
2.86
2.14
5.86
Bubble


WoffordSouthern
4-20.667
4
3.85
1.15
7.85
Southern Auto


Sam Houston StSouthland
4-20.667
4
4.06
0.94
8.06
AL6


MontanaBig Sky
4-30.571
4
1.99
2.01
5.99
Bubble


McNeese StSouthland
5-10.833
5
3.14
1.86
8.14
AL7


Nicholls StSouthland
4-30.571
4
3.45
0.55
7.45
Bubble


FurmanSouthern
2-30.400
2
3.42
1.58
5.42
Out


ChattanoogaSouthern
5-20.714
5
1.91
2.09
6.91
Bubble


RichmondColonial
3-40.429
3
1.67
2.33
4.67
Out


ETSUSouthern
6-10.857
5
1.6
2.4
6.6
Bubble


IdahoBig Sky
2-40.333
1
1.84
3.16
2.84
Out


SE Missouri StOH Valley
4-20.667
4
2.6
2.4
6.6
Bubble


NC A&TMid-Eastern AC
5-20.714
5
3.47
0.53
8.47
Potential Bubble


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
2-40.333
2
1.33
3.67
3.33
Out


SamfordSouthern
3-40.429
2
2.15
1.85
4.15
Out


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
1-50.167
1
1.48
3.52
2.48
OUt


MercerSouthern
3-30.500
3
2.55
2.45
5.55
Weak Bubble


Cal PolyBig Sky
2-40.333
2
1.62
3.38
3.62
Out


E KentuckyOH Valley
3-30.500
3
3.53
1.47
6.53
Weak Bubble


Indiana StMissouri Valley
2-40.333
1
1.27
3.73
2.27
Out


Murray StOH Valley
3-30.500
3
2.24
2.76
5.24
Out


Portland StBig Sky
3-40.429
2
0.93
3.07
2.93
Out


New HampshireColonial
1-50.167
1
1.39
3.61
2.39
Out


Southern UtahBig Sky
1-50.167
1
2.4
2.6
3.4
Out


Austin PeayOH Valley
3-40.429
3
2.9
1.1
5.9
Weak Bubble


William & MaryColonial
2-40.333
2
0.82
3.18
2.82
Out


Florida A&MMid-Eastern AC
5-20.714
4
2.79
1.21
6.79
Weak Bubble


Incarnate WordSouthland
3-30.500
3
1.88
3.12
4.88
Out


CitadelSouthern
1-40.200
1
2.99
3.01
3.99
Out


SE LouisianaSouthland
3-40.429
3
1.42
2.58
4.42
Out


CS SacramentoBig Sky
2-40.333
1
1.52
3.48
2.52
Out


TN MartinOH Valley
1-50.167
1
2.8
2.2
3.8
Out


Tennessee StOH Valley
2-30.400
2
1.87
2.13
3.87
Out


Abilene ChrSouthland
3-40.429
2
1.64
2.36
3.64
Out


Monmouth NJBig South
4-20.667
4
3.02
1.98
7.02
Weak Bubble


San DiegoPioneer
4-20.667
4
4.24
0.76
8.24
Pioneer Auto

[BisonTru]

Teams in consideration by conference (5 remaining at-larges would be picked from this group)

MVFC
Northern Iowa
Missouri St

CAA
Stony Brook
Maine
Villanova
Rhode Island

Big Sky
Idaho St
North Dakota
Montana St
Northern Arizona
Montana

Southland
Nichols St

Southern
Chattanooga
ETSU
Mercer

OVC
SE Missouri St
Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay

MEAC *Reminder: The winner of the conference will go to the celebration bowl
North Carolina A&T
Florida A&M

Big South
Monmouth

[melloware13]

It will be interesting to see how teams that had a game cancelled due to weather get that looked at. Elon and Furman seem to be the most likely impacted on the bubble by that, although the perception of the lost games are different (Elon a projected win removed and Furman a toss-up/loss)

[BisonTru]

Teams in consideration by conference (5 remaining at-larges would be picked from this group)

MVFC
Northern Iowa
Missouri St

CAA
Stony Brook
Maine
Villanova
Rhode Island

Big Sky
Idaho St
North Dakota
Montana St
Northern Arizona
Montana

Southland
Nichols St

Southern
Chattanooga
ETSU
Mercer

OVC
SE Missouri St
Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay

MEAC *Reminder: The winner of the conference will go to the celebration bowl
North Carolina A&T
Florida A&M

Big South
Monmouth

Just my thoughts now looking at this broke down by conference....

Get in:

Idaho St
Stony Brook
Northern Iowa
Chattanooga or ETSU

Last spot comes down to - Missouri St/Maine/Montana State/North Dakota/Nicholls St/Chattanooga or ETSU

The rest IMO are out.

[PaladinFan]

It will be interesting to see how teams that had a game cancelled due to weather get that looked at. Elon and Furman seem to be the most likely impacted on the bubble by that, although the perception of the lost games are different (Elon a projected win removed and Furman a toss-up/loss)

That's a curious question I have contemplated a few times.

Furman's game wasn't cancelled against just anyone, of course, but Colgate. Massey appears to predict Colgate as a 9 win playoff team.

I have no idea whether Furman would have beaten Colgate. I did watch Furman dismantle the Raiders last year in New York (and two prior times before that), so I am bullish in thinking that Furman would have won that game - maybe by several scores. Would a win over a top 5 Wofford team and top 25 Colgate team help the Paladins on the bubble? I bet.

Right now Furman has losses to Clemson, Elon, and ETSU (who has vastly exceeded projections). All on the road. If they win out, there's no guarantee of the autobid, but it would be hard to leave them at home. I think the real head scratcher is if they finish 6-4 (6-2) as the SoCon's 2nd or 3rd team. That cancelled game against Colgate will then loom really large (especially because, by all accounts, Colgate cancelled the game, not Furman).

[Professor Chaos]

There's a very real possibility the SOCON is a 1 bid league this year. Also the MVFC, which has put 5 teams in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years, is looking more like a 4 bid league this year with 3 being a possibility also. The CAA could be the first league ever to put 6 teams into the field with those extra spots. Could also see 4 Southland teams make it in.

[Cocky]

Why would EWU get the auto over Weber?

[fmftballmgr]

Teams in consideration by conference (5 remaining at-larges would be picked from this group)


OVC
SE Missouri St
Eastern Kentucky
Austin Peay




Right now Murray State has a better conference record than all 3 of these teams. We are better than everybody thinks.

I am not saying we are going to win out but we have a good shot to win against everybody except JSU right now. The OVC is JSU and everybody else is about the same.

Yes I know our loss 6 turnover loss to SIU is going to kill our chances but I would like to see some respect for what we have done in conference so far.

[Thumper 76]

Right now Murray State has a better conference record than all 3 of these teams. We are better than everybody thinks.

I am not saying we are going to win out but we have a good shot to win against everybody except JSU right now. The OVC is JSU and everybody else is about the same.

Yes I know our loss 6 turnover loss to SIU is going to kill our chances but I would like to see some respect for what we have done in conference so far.

OVC hasn’t done anything to show that in conference results deserve respect when it comes to getting an at large unless there’s some real OOC success to show it’s worthy of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BisonTru]

Right now Murray State has a better conference record than all 3 of these teams. We are better than everybody thinks.

I am not saying we are going to win out but we have a good shot to win against everybody except JSU right now. The OVC is JSU and everybody else is about the same.

Yes I know our loss 6 turnover loss to SIU is going to kill our chances but I would like to see some respect for what we have done in conference so far.

Massey does have you above Austin Peay, but your estimated wins is below six which is a concrete no for playoff consideration. If a second OVC team wants to get in they are going to need to separate themselves from the rest of conference pretty convincingly or beat JSU.

[BisonTru]

Why would EWU get the auto over Weber?

Idk, honestly I just gave the Auto to the highest ranked Massey team in the conference. The Big Sky auto as well as the CAA or the MVFC auto really are irrelevant as any team that is tied or near tied for the conference title is a shoe in for the playoffs regardless.

[fmftballmgr]

OVC hasn’t done anything to show that in conference results deserve respect when it comes to getting an at large unless there’s some real OOC success to show it’s worthy of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

agreeed with the ovc has not done nothing to deserve it

[fmftballmgr]

Massey does have you above Austin Peay, but your estimated wins is below six which is a concrete no for playoff consideration. If a second OVC team wants to get in they are going to need to separate themselves from the rest of conference pretty convincingly or beat JSU.

to heck with a computer that is why we play the games.

the only way right now we are a two bid is if JSU goes 7-1 in conference and the team that beat them goes 8-0

[BisonTru]

There's a very real possibility the SOCON is a 1 bid league this year. Also the MVFC, which has put 5 teams in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years, is looking more like a 4 bid league this year with 3 being a possibility also. The CAA could be the first league ever to put 6 teams into the field with those extra spots. Could also see 4 Southland teams make it in.

So to preface, one of my strongest beliefs is it is an injustice to punish teams for playing strong schedules and/or in strong conferences as we all want teams to challenge themselves.

With that being said, I still think the MVFC is the strongest conference. I will admit the CAA has stepped up in the past few years and the Big Sky looks to be having their strongest year in a while. So I wouldn't be too upset seeing either of those conferences get more teams in, but to see the Southland who may easily see 4 teams with shiny records get more teams in than the MVFC would be an inequitable way of fielding the playoffs.

Obviously I'm biased as a Valley fan. However, in this projections I certainly feel Missouri St and UNI would be one of the top 14 football teams that could be eligible for at larges. Yet, it will be interesting how the committee sees it. Will any team from the CAA/Big Sky that gets to 7 wins automatically get bumped over a 6 win MVFC team? Will 7 wins from other conferences like the Southland or a OVC bump a team a head of a 6 win MVFC team? Hell, I even think you could make a strong argument for a 6 win MVFC team over an 8 win team from a weaker conference.

I certainly don't feel the MVFC is down this year, but a couple things are hurting it more than in the past. First, the conference didn't get as many OOC wins as they have in the past (iirc, and tbf that could be argued as a sign the conference is down), there was only one FBS win from the conference, and NDSU and possibly SDSU look to be eating up every available win which doesn't leave many for the rest of the league.

[POD Knows]

There's a very real possibility the SOCON is a 1 bid league this year. Also the MVFC, which has put 5 teams in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years, is looking more like a 4 bid league this year with 3 being a possibility also. The CAA could be the first league ever to put 6 teams into the field with those extra spots. Could also see 4 Southland teams make it in.God, I hope there is 4 SLC and 6 CAA's teams in the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

There's a very real possibility the SOCON is a 1 bid league this year. Also the MVFC, which has put 5 teams in the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years, is looking more like a 4 bid league this year with 3 being a possibility also. The CAA could be the first league ever to put 6 teams into the field with those extra spots. Could also see 4 Southland teams make it in.

I doubt it. If Furman wins the autobid and Wofford goes at least 8-3, we're both in. If ETSU finishes 8-3 or better (hypothetical losses to Wofford and or Samford), they're probably in as well. Samford can even win the autobid still.

Saturday is separation Saturday in the socon. There are still 6 teams with a legit shot at the conference title/autobid and it may be 2 weeks before Western Carolina or the Citadel are officially eliminated from contention. The fact that Wofford has good playoff credentials in the last 2 years + Samford/Furman can still win the autobid will be our conference's cushion. Heck, even if Samford and Furman stumble, ETSU and Chattanooga could be the ones to force that, elevating themselves to the field (I have a hard time seeing an 8-3/9-2 ETSU and 8-3 Chattanooga being left out of the field).

Put another way, these winning forecasts are probabilistic, so in the abstract they seem possible, but logically won't manifest. Some of these teams will win more than their average and some less.

[Daytripper]

I did this a few weeks ago and thought I'd share an updated version. This is Massey's estimated wins remaining plus the D1 wins teams have already banked. I am fairly confident in this scenario on the first 9 at larges. Five more at larges would need to come from teams I put in the bubble. They are ranked by Massey.

I'd love to hear what people feel the remaining at larges would be in this outlook.

Green = Est. 8+ wins, Yellow = Est. 7 wins, Orange = Est. 6 wins, Red = Est. 5 wins or less





D1 Wins
Est. Wins Left
Est. Losses Left
Projected Wins



N Dakota StMissouri Valley
6-01.000
6
4.78
0.22
10.78
MVFC Auto


James MadisonColonial
5-20.714
5
3.61
0.39
8.61
CAA Auto


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
4-10.800
4
3.56
1.44
7.56
AL1


Illinois StMissouri Valley
5-10.833
4
2.91
2.09
6.91
AL2


E WashingtonBig Sky
5-20.714
4
3.44
0.56
7.44
Big Sky Auto


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
3-30.500
3
3.21
1.79
6.21
Bubble


TowsonColonial
5-10.833
5
2.65
2.35
7.65
AL3


Weber StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
3.71
1.29
7.71
AL4


ElonColonial
4-20.667
4
2.67
1.33
6.67
AL9


UC DavisBig Sky
5-10.833
5
3.19
1.81
8.19
AL5


DelawareColonial
4-20.667
4
3.47
1.53
7.47
AL8


ColgatePatriot League
6-01.000
6
2.99
1.01
8.99
Patroit Auto


Jacksonville StOH Valley
5-10.833
5
3.91
1.09
8.91
OVC Auto


Stony BrookColonial
5-20.714
5
2.05
1.95
7.05
Bubble


Missouri StMissouri Valley
4-20.667
4
1.68
3.32
5.68
Bubble


South DakotaMissouri Valley
3-30.500
3
2.25
2.75
5.25
Out


KennesawBig South
6-10.857
5
3.16
0.84
8.16
Big South Auto


Idaho StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.83
2.17
6.83
Bubble


MaineColonial
4-20.667
4
2.83
2.17
6.83
Bubble


North DakotaBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.94
2.06
6.94
Bubble


VillanovaColonial
3-40.429
3
2.62
1.38
5.62
Bubble


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
2-40.333
2
2.53
2.47
4.53
Out


Montana StBig Sky
4-20.667
4
2.55
2.45
6.55
Bubble


Cent ArkansasSouthland
4-20.667
4
4.06
0.94
8.06
Southland Auto


Rhode IslandColonial
4-20.667
4
2.31
2.69
6.31
Bubble


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
3-30.500
3
2.86
2.14
5.86
Bubble


WoffordSouthern
4-20.667
4
3.85
1.15
7.85
Southern Auto


Sam Houston StSouthland
4-20.667
4
4.06
0.94
8.06
AL6


MontanaBig Sky
4-30.571
4
1.99
2.01
5.99
Bubble


McNeese StSouthland
5-10.833
5
3.14
1.86
8.14
AL7


Nicholls StSouthland
4-30.571
4
3.45
0.55
7.45
Bubble


FurmanSouthern
2-30.400
2
3.42
1.58
5.42
Out


ChattanoogaSouthern
5-20.714
5
1.91
2.09
6.91
Bubble


RichmondColonial
3-40.429
3
1.67
2.33
4.67
Out


ETSUSouthern
6-10.857
5
1.6
2.4
6.6
Bubble


IdahoBig Sky
2-40.333
1
1.84
3.16
2.84
Out


SE Missouri StOH Valley
4-20.667
4
2.6
2.4
6.6
Bubble


NC A&TMid-Eastern AC
5-20.714
5
3.47
0.53
8.47
Potential Bubble


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
2-40.333
2
1.33
3.67
3.33
Out


SamfordSouthern
3-40.429
2
2.15
1.85
4.15
Out


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
1-50.167
1
1.48
3.52
2.48
OUt


MercerSouthern
3-30.500
3
2.55
2.45
5.55
Weak Bubble


Cal PolyBig Sky
2-40.333
2
1.62
3.38
3.62
Out


E KentuckyOH Valley
3-30.500
3
3.53
1.47
6.53
Weak Bubble


Indiana StMissouri Valley
2-40.333
1
1.27
3.73
2.27
Out


Murray StOH Valley
3-30.500
3
2.24
2.76
5.24
Out


Portland StBig Sky
3-40.429
2
0.93
3.07
2.93
Out


New HampshireColonial
1-50.167
1
1.39
3.61
2.39
Out


Southern UtahBig Sky
1-50.167
1
2.4
2.6
3.4
Out


Austin PeayOH Valley
3-40.429
3
2.9
1.1
5.9
Weak Bubble


William & MaryColonial
2-40.333
2
0.82
3.18
2.82
Out


Florida A&MMid-Eastern AC
5-20.714
4
2.79
1.21
6.79
Weak Bubble


Incarnate WordSouthland
3-30.500
3
1.88
3.12
4.88
Out


CitadelSouthern
1-40.200
1
2.99
3.01
3.99
Out


SE LouisianaSouthland
3-40.429
3
1.42
2.58
4.42
Out


CS SacramentoBig Sky
2-40.333
1
1.52
3.48
2.52
Out


TN MartinOH Valley
1-50.167
1
2.8
2.2
3.8
Out


Tennessee StOH Valley
2-30.400
2
1.87
2.13
3.87
Out


Abilene ChrSouthland
3-40.429
2
1.64
2.36
3.64
Out


Monmouth NJBig South
4-20.667
4
3.02
1.98
7.02
Weak Bubble


San DiegoPioneer
4-20.667
4
4.24
0.76
8.24
Pioneer Auto




I think it is a reach to give the Southland auto bid to UCA. They already have a conference loss, while McNeese is undefeated. Also UCA must travel to McNeese for their game.

[Reign of Terrier]

So to preface, one of my strongest beliefs is it is an injustice to punish teams for playing strong schedules and/or in strong conferences as we all want teams to challenge themselves.

With that being said, I still think the MVFC is the strongest conference. I will admit the CAA has stepped up in the past few years and the Big Sky looks to be having their strongest year in a while. So I wouldn't be too upset seeing either of those conferences get more teams in, but to see the Southland who may easily see 4 teams with shiny records get more teams in than the MVFC would be an inequitable way of fielding the playoffs.

Obviously I'm biased as a Valley fan. However, in this projections I certainly feel Missouri St and UNI would be one of the top 14 football teams that could be eligible for at larges. Yet, it will be interesting how the committee sees it. Will any team from the CAA/Big Sky that gets to 7 wins automatically get bumped over a 6 win MVFC team? Will 7 wins from other conferences like the Southland or a OVC bump a team a head of a 6 win MVFC team? Hell, I even think you could make a strong argument for a 6 win MVFC team over an 8 win team from a weaker conference.

I certainly don't feel the MVFC is down this year, but a couple things are hurting it more than in the past. First, the conference didn't get as many OOC wins as they have in the past (iirc, and tbf that could be argued as a sign the conference is down), there was only one FBS win from the conference, and NDSU and possibly SDSU look to be eating up every available win which doesn't leave many for the rest of the league.

What I hate is the capriciousness of the committee. Like last year, I don't think that South Dakota deserved to be in over Eastern Washington or even possibly McNeese. Similarly, Samford at 7-4 in 2016 probably shouldn't have gotten in either. Conferences will beat their chests over their conference rankings or how many got into the playoffs, but we overlook how tight the bubble is AND the caprice of the committee.

And I'll insert my obligatory Socon fan mentions geography here, but it's also not fair that most of the teams the socon plays are rematches of regular season games (in conference or otherwise), while the geography of the MVFC and maybe even big sky allows the likes of Monmouth and pioneer to fly out and lay an egg, allowing more teams to have a measuring stick against other conferences (i.e. first round games may be harder). This is mainly on the Socon for playing weak OOC in the regular season, not gonna debate that. But we've seen many instances of Socon teams play well against teams not named NDSU in recent years, even against the MVFC).

So when it comes to the question of teams being represented in the playoffs, if we're using last year's standard, I'm a fan of rewarding the third place team (or so) of conferences with less representation (though not as a rigid rule) that finished 9-2 or so, over the fifth place team that finishes 7-4. because if you're these programs in these conferences, 9 win seasons AND being third place (or so) are very rare. Programs schedule games to win because they aren't quite good enough to schedule to impress the committee, because they don't think they'll make the playoffs at large anyway (does that make sense?).

Having more representation among conferences like the Socon, Big Sky, and Southland are good because the top teams in these conferences usually get at least to the quarterfinals (and it's hard to get to the semifinals, no matter how good you are!) is good. I wouldn't extend this logic to the Big south or OVC because they haven't shown enough consistency yet and their SOS *is* usually *very* weak OOC and in conference.

[BisonTru]

I think it is a reach to give the Southland auto bid to UCA. They already have a conference loss, while McNeese is undefeated. Also UCA must travel to McNeese for their game.

That's fair. I gave the auto to the highest ranked Massey team, because.... well... I'm lazy and didn't want to spend the time to look at each conference and predict the auto.

[Professor Chaos]

So to preface, one of my strongest beliefs is it is an injustice to punish teams for playing strong schedules and/or in strong conferences as we all want teams to challenge themselves.

With that being said, I still think the MVFC is the strongest conference. I will admit the CAA has stepped up in the past few years and the Big Sky looks to be having their strongest year in a while. So I wouldn't be too upset seeing either of those conferences get more teams in, but to see the Southland who may easily see 4 teams with shiny records get more teams in than the MVFC would be an inequitable way of fielding the playoffs.

Obviously I'm biased as a Valley fan. However, in this projections I certainly feel Missouri St and UNI would be one of the top 14 football teams that could be eligible for at larges. Yet, it will be interesting how the committee sees it. Will any team from the CAA/Big Sky that gets to 7 wins automatically get bumped over a 6 win MVFC team? Will 7 wins from other conferences like the Southland or a OVC bump a team a head of a 6 win MVFC team? Hell, I even think you could make a strong argument for a 6 win MVFC team over an 8 win team from a weaker conference.

I certainly don't feel the MVFC is down this year, but a couple things are hurting it more than in the past. First, the conference didn't get as many OOC wins as they have in the past (iirc, and tbf that could be argued as a sign the conference is down), there was only one FBS win from the conference, and NDSU and possibly SDSU look to be eating up every available win which doesn't leave many for the rest of the league. These last two points are the biggest factors why I believe the MVFC gets 4 tops and might even shrink to 3 playoff teams if ISUr joins that party of beating everybody else. Both times in the past a 6 win MVFC team has made the field (WIU in '15 and ISUr in '16) they had a good FBS win. Even last year with USD was one of the last teams in at 7-4 they had an FBS win. None of the MVFC bubble teams have that this year (unless ISUr falls back to the bubble). Unless the bubble is exceptionally weak I don't think we see any 6 win MVFC teams in the field this year.

UNI needs to beat either SDSU or ISUr to get to 7 wins. Missouri St needs to avoid getting swept in their last 3 games (@SDSU, NDSU, @UNI). USD needs to beat either NDSU or SDSU. WIU and YSU need to win out. Unless NDSU and SDSU give one or two of these teams the signature win they need it's going to be tough for anyone outside of those two and ISUr to make the field. xtwocentsx

[BEAR]

I think it is a reach to give the Southland auto bid to UCA. They already have a conference loss, while McNeese is undefeated. Also UCA must travel to McNeese for their game.

I saw that. Wouldn't that be nice! xlolx I bet Bearkat fans will be cheering on UCA in two weeks...

[BisonTru]

What I hate is the capriciousness of the committee. Like last year, I don't think that South Dakota deserved to be in over Eastern Washington or even possibly McNeese. Similarly, Samford at 7-4 in 2016 probably shouldn't have gotten in either. Conferences will beat their chests over their conference rankings or how many got into the playoffs, but we overlook how tight the bubble is AND the caprice of the committee.

And I'll insert my obligatory Socon fan mentions geography here, but it's also not fair that most of the teams the socon plays are rematches of regular season games (in conference or otherwise), while the geography of the MVFC and maybe even big sky allows the likes of Monmouth and pioneer to fly out and lay an egg, allowing more teams to have a measuring stick against other conferences (i.e. first round games may be harder). This is mainly on the Socon for playing weak OOC in the regular season, not gonna debate that. But we've seen many instances of Socon teams play well against teams not named NDSU in recent years, even against the MVFC).

So when it comes to the question of teams being represented in the playoffs, if we're using last year's standard, I'm a fan of rewarding the third place team (or so) of conferences with less representation (though not as a rigid rule) that finished 9-2 or so, over the fifth place team that finishes 7-4. because if you're these programs in these conferences, 9 win seasons AND being third place (or so) are very rare. Programs schedule games to win because they aren't quite good enough to schedule to impress the committee, because they don't think they'll make the playoffs at large anyway (does that make sense?).

Having more representation among conferences like the Socon, Big Sky, and Southland are good because the top teams in these conferences usually get at least to the quarterfinals (and it's hard to get to the semifinals, no matter how good you are!) is good. I wouldn't extend this logic to the Big south or OVC because they haven't shown enough consistency yet and their SOS *is* usually *very* weak OOC and in conference.

Well, regionalization is something we can all bitch about. The MVFC frequently gets routed into each other and had they been more evenly spread throughout the bracket they may have ended a long playoff run from another team. Really usually a CAA team gets the normally weak Northeast rep and often a weak Patriot rep. The pioneer rep has lately been San Diego but that conference is so spread out they could be routed to almost anywhere just depending on who the auto is.

Like I said, we all want teams to play tough games and in tough conferences. I know it's not sexy to see a fifth MVFC or CAA team, and we kinda already know where they sit. However when you bump those teams out in favor of a shiny record with a weak SOS, you are really telling ADs everywhere schedule weak games and either don't move to a tougher conference or maybe even drop to a weaker conference. Take Missouri St and put them in the OVC and they are probably easily the second best team and potentially could give JSU a run for the conference, IMO. They would be a lock for the playoffs in that conference. So I think even though they might finish with a bare minimum 6 wins and a fifth spot in the MVFC they should get heavy consideration and if I was a committee member if by their body of work I think they are one of the 14 best teams without an Auto they would be in regardless if some other teams have them beat in the win column.

[MR. CHICKEN]

That's a curious question I have contemplated a few times.

Furman's game wasn't cancelled against just anyone, of course, but Colgate. Massey appears to predict Colgate as a 9 win playoff team.

I have no idea whether Furman would have beaten Colgate. I did watch Furman dismantle the Raiders last year in New York (and two prior times before that), so I am bullish in thinking that Furman would have won that game - maybe by several scores. Would a win over a top 5 Wofford team and top 25 Colgate team help the Paladins on the bubble? I bet.

Right now Furman has losses to Clemson, Elon, and ETSU (who has vastly exceeded projections). All on the road. If they win out, there's no guarantee of the autobid, but it would be hard to leave them at home. I think the real head scratcher is if they finish 6-4 (6-2) as the SoCon's 2nd or 3rd team. That cancelled game against Colgate will then loom really large (especially because, by all accounts, Colgate cancelled the game, not Furman).

......DON'T THINK YOUSE CAN UH-SUME......DUH WUBBYAH...OVERAH COLGATE....AS YA WERE IN LOSER SPIRAL....FIRST THREE GAMES YOUSE PLAYED......&.....AH'D VENTURE UH SOLID GUESS....COLGATE HAD TRAVEL TROUBLES....DUE...TA STORM............WM & MARY CANCELLED GAME....WHIFF ELON.......AS UH PRECAUTION.......AN' STORM WENT LESS DAN.......TROPICAL BAH TIME IT GETS TA DUH BURG.............BRAWK!

[Professor Chaos]

I doubt it. If Furman wins the autobid and Wofford goes at least 8-3, we're both in. If ETSU finishes 8-3 or better (hypothetical losses to Wofford and or Samford), they're probably in as well. Samford can even win the autobid still.

Saturday is separation Saturday in the socon. There are still 6 teams with a legit shot at the conference title/autobid and it may be 2 weeks before Western Carolina or the Citadel are officially eliminated from contention. The fact that Wofford has good playoff credentials in the last 2 years + Samford/Furman can still win the autobid will be our conference's cushion. Heck, even if Samford and Furman stumble, ETSU and Chattanooga could be the ones to force that, elevating themselves to the field (I have a hard time seeing an 8-3/9-2 ETSU and 8-3 Chattanooga being left out of the field).

Put another way, these winning forecasts are probabilistic, so in the abstract they seem possible, but logically won't manifest. Some of these teams will win more than their average and some less.
We'll see. I'm not buying Furman getting to 6 wins or ETSU getting to 8 wins. I think Samford is going to mess up a lot playoff hopes in the SOCON down the stretch which will get Wofford back in position for the auto. Other than Wofford I think Chattanooga has the best shot of an at-large bid in the SOCON.

[Reign of Terrier]

Well, regionalization is something we can all bitch about. The MVFC frequently gets routed into each other and had they been more evenly spread throughout the bracket they may have ended a long playoff run from another team. Really usually a CAA team gets the normally weak Northeast rep and often a weak Patriot rep. The pioneer rep has lately been San Diego but that conference is so spread out they could be routed to almost anywhere just depending on who the auto is.

Like I said, we all want teams to play tough games and in tough conferences. I know it's not sexy to see a fifth MVFC or CAA team, and we kinda already know where they sit. However when you bump those teams out in favor of a shiny record with a weak SOS, you are really telling ADs everywhere schedule weak games and either don't move to a tougher conference or maybe even drop to a weaker conference. Take Missouri St and put them in the OVC and they are probably easily the second best team and potentially could give JSU a run for the conference, IMO. They would be a lock for the playoffs in that conference. So I think even though they might finish with a bare minimum 6 wins and a fifth spot in the MVFC they should get heavy consideration and if I was a committee member if by their body of work I think they are one of the 14 best teams without an Auto they would be in regardless if some other teams have them beat in the win column.

If you're not already playing in a tough conference or a traditional power, you're faced with a dilemma: how do you build a winning program? Do you line up easy wins and prove to recruits you can win or do you get throttled in your OOC?

It's hard to figure out where the causal arrows point. Is it a tough OOC that leads to more playoff teams that leads to higher rankings which leads to scheduling tougher OOC? Or is it higher rankings that leads to playoffs which leads to more conference teams getting higher rankings, all eventually leading to tougher OOC?

If you're in a small, weak conference, you have every incentive to schedule tough OOC (think Boise State), but if you're in the SEC west, you don't have to do that. Meanwhile, if you look at many of these FCS bubble teams with weak schedules (Kennesaw State, some Southland teams, some OVC teams, and some Big South teams), they either aren't football programs traditionally or are building them. The incentive structure for these programs doesn't really reward the bullish OOC, while if you're in the Big Sky or CAA or MVFC it does (but even then, the CAA doesn't schedule too tough OOC from top to bottom).

So, for me, long term, I think the best way you confront this is by incentivizing teams to schedule tougher. Especially to programs/conferences that have a lot of start ups, which are probably concentrated in the Southland, Southern, and Big South. And this isn't categorical advice, just a general impression I get. The more I think of it, the more I think the FCS is about 5 years away from being more balanced with OOC as those start ups get more integrated.

[ngineer]

Hey, just for schlitz and giggles, what if, I mean it is possible, that Lehigh gets a bug up its ass and runs the remaining table? More bizarre things have happened in sports. They'd finish 6-5. I guess Fordham would have to lose another game eliminating the 'head to head' tie breaker. Just sayin'....xsmiley_wix

[dbackjon]

These last two points are the biggest factors why I believe the MVFC gets 4 tops and might even shrink to 3 playoff teams if ISUr joins that party of beating everybody else. Both times in the past a 6 win MVFC team has made the field (WIU in '15 and ISUr in '16) they had a good FBS win. Even last year with USD was one of the last teams in at 7-4 they had an FBS win. None of the MVFC bubble teams have that this year (unless ISUr falls back to the bubble). Unless the bubble is exceptionally weak I don't think we see any 6 win MVFC teams in the field this year.

UNI needs to beat either SDSU or ISUr to get to 7 wins. Missouri St needs to avoid getting swept in their last 3 games (@SDSU, NDSU, @UNI). USD needs to beat either NDSU or SDSU. WIU and YSU need to win out. Unless NDSU and SDSU give one or two of these teams the signature win they need it's going to be tough for anyone outside of those two and ISUr to make the field. xtwocentsx


Missouri State has a potentially easier path to 7 wins, since they have one game in the bag to the others. UNI and USD will need to sweep the xDSU's, other wise it is 6 win city, and there are too many other teams that could get to 7 wins.

NAU's record going into the final weekend with UND hopefully will be at worst 6-4. Missouri State at 7-4 would probably get the nod over a 7-4 NAU (which to get that mark would have beaten UND).

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

These last two points are the biggest factors why I believe the MVFC gets 4 tops and might even shrink to 3 playoff teams if ISUr joins that party of beating everybody else. Both times in the past a 6 win MVFC team has made the field (WIU in '15 and ISUr in '16) they had a good FBS win. Even last year with USD was one of the last teams in at 7-4 they had an FBS win. None of the MVFC bubble teams have that this year (unless ISUr falls back to the bubble). Unless the bubble is exceptionally weak I don't think we see any 6 win MVFC teams in the field this year.

UNI needs to beat either SDSU or ISUr to get to 7 wins. Missouri St needs to avoid getting swept in their last 3 games (@SDSU, NDSU, @UNI). USD needs to beat either NDSU or SDSU. WIU and YSU need to win out. Unless NDSU and SDSU give one or two of these teams the signature win they need it's going to be tough for anyone outside of those two and ISUr to make the field. xtwocentsx




I think you last sentence is spot on. IMO, the Valley might/probably only get 3 teams in this year.

NDSU
SDSU
Ill State

[katss07]

UCA as the SLC AQ? That game in Lake Chuck looms large, it’ll be even bigger if McNeese goes and wins in San Antonio. Starting to wonder which SLC team will be left out. Nicholls?

I’m also thinking that NAU/UND regular season finale will be for a playoff spot.

[dbackjon]

UCA as the SLC AQ? That game in Lake Chuck looms large, it’ll be even bigger if McNeese goes and wins in San Antonio. Starting to wonder which SLC team will be left out. Nicholls?

I’m also thinking that NAU/UND regular season finale will be for a playoff spot.


If we both beat the teams each should be favored to (For NAU: Sac State, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly; for UND: Sac State, Idaho, Portland State) and lose to teams ahead in the standings - NAU at UC-Davis, UND hosts Weber) then NAU would go into the game at 6-4, UND at 7-3. UND win to get to 8-3 would put them in. An NAU win to put both at 7-4 would likely knock UND out, but NAU would still be a bubble team.

[Go...gate]

Thanks for posting this. I have been a Colgate fan long enough to know that any of the three remaining Patriot League games could be trouble. Army is gravy. They absolutely murdered San Jose State last Saturday. More speed at West Point than I can remember. Whereas Jim Young and Bob Sutton tended to emphasize power in their wishbone offenses, Monken is more diverse - a lot of stuff out of the Paul Johnson playbook.

[Go...gate]

If you're not already playing in a tough conference or a traditional power, you're faced with a dilemma: how do you build a winning program? Do you line up easy wins and prove to recruits you can win or do you get throttled in your OOC?

It's hard to figure out where the causal arrows point. Is it a tough OOC that leads to more playoff teams that leads to higher rankings which leads to scheduling tougher OOC? Or is it higher rankings that leads to playoffs which leads to more conference teams getting higher rankings, all eventually leading to tougher OOC?

If you're in a small, weak conference, you have every incentive to schedule tough OOC (think Boise State), but if you're in the SEC west, you don't have to do that. Meanwhile, if you look at many of these FCS bubble teams with weak schedules (Kennesaw State, some Southland teams, some OVC teams, and some Big South teams), they either aren't football programs traditionally or are building them. The incentive structure for these programs doesn't really reward the bullish OOC, while if you're in the Big Sky or CAA or MVFC it does (but even then, the CAA doesn't schedule too tough OOC from top to bottom).

So, for me, long term, I think the best way you confront this is by incentivizing teams to schedule tougher. Especially to programs/conferences that have a lot of start ups, which are probably concentrated in the Southland, Southern, and Big South. And this isn't categorical advice, just a general impression I get. The more I think of it, the more I think the FCS is about 5 years away from being more balanced with OOC as those start ups get more integrated.

Amen.

[ngineer]

And in five years, hopefully, the PL has its act together on how to recruit and loosen up some of the restrictions, otherwise we're fooling ourselves on becoming "competitive" with the other FCS conferences.

[Reign of Terrier]

This kind of goes with the thread earlier because it's about SOS and stuff, but I really don't think we committed FCS fans understand the role that football plays in many of these institutions. Yes, there are some such as NDSU and in the Big Sky/MVFC/maybe even the CAA that play a tough OOC. Football is important part of the campus culture.

Then you have private school teams like Wofford or the directional state universities that don't win a lot in parts of the OVC and maybe Southland. Coach Conklin was asked about scheduling last night on his coaching show, and basically said "there's a formula" with one FBS game, and at least one local FCS game. Translation: it's about money. When asked about teams he'd like to play, he didn't say Montana or NDSU or EWU or James Madison, he talked about the Patriot league or the Ivys.

The fact is, for many of these institutions, money is an underlying motive. And if money *isn't* an issue, the overall school's brand is what drives the decision. Wofford as an institution sees football as a great force for marketing and wants to be in the same sentence as Colgate and Lehigh and the Ivys. We don't compete with MVFC teams for students.

I think teams should be rewarded for playing tough schedules, but in many cases schedules are ironed out years in advance. Like, Elon was not good when Furman ironed out their home and home with them. Though there are examples of good teams scheduling good teams years in advance, many of those teams appear "flash in the pan" (look at Charleston Southern). I don't think this is a Wofford or Socon problem exclusively, but one you'll see at any program (upstart or otherwise) where the bottom line is more fluid form year-to-year. Teams like Montana and NDSU can afford to not play FBS teams for some years because of their attendance, but that's not the reality for most programs.

That's why I'm less inclined to punish teams for playing so-so schedules. Because the players on the field can't be blamed for the team the AD lines them up against. And again, that's not to say that I value a 9-2 Pioneer league team to a 7-4 MVFC team, but at a certain point the committee has to take minor risks on 8-3 and 9-2 teams in full-scholarship conferences. And if they don't pan out, we remember that next time.

[ngineer]

This kind of goes with the thread earlier because it's about SOS and stuff, but I really don't think we committed FCS fans understand the role that football plays in many of these institutions. Yes, there are some such as NDSU and in the Big Sky/MVFC/maybe even the CAA that play a tough OOC. Football is important part of the campus culture.

Then you have private school teams like Wofford or the directional state universities that don't win a lot in parts of the OVC and maybe Southland. Coach Conklin was asked about scheduling last night on his coaching show, and basically said "there's a formula" with one FBS game, and at least one local FCS game. Translation: it's about money. When asked about teams he'd like to play, he didn't say Montana or NDSU or EWU or James Madison, he talked about the Patriot league or the Ivys.

The fact is, for many of these institutions, money is an underlying motive. And if money *isn't* an issue, the overall school's brand is what drives the decision. Wofford as an institution sees football as a great force for marketing and wants to be in the same sentence as Colgate and Lehigh and the Ivys. We don't compete with MVFC teams for students.

I think teams should be rewarded for playing tough schedules, but in many cases schedules are ironed out years in advance. Like, Elon was not good when Furman ironed out their home and home with them. Though there are examples of good teams scheduling good teams years in advance, many of those teams appear "flash in the pan" (look at Charleston Southern). I don't think this is a Wofford or Socon problem exclusively, but one you'll see at any program (upstart or otherwise) where the bottom line is more fluid form year-to-year. Teams like Montana and NDSU can afford to not play FBS teams for some years because of their attendance, but that's not the reality for most programs.

That's why I'm less inclined to punish teams for playing so-so schedules. Because the players on the field can't be blamed for the team the AD lines them up against. And again, that's not to say that I value a 9-2 Pioneer league team to a 7-4 MVFC team, but at a certain point the committee has to take minor risks on 8-3 and 9-2 teams in full-scholarship conferences. And if they don't pan out, we remember that next time.

I am always amazed at how Wofford has been able to be so competitive, not just in its conference, but nationally. It has a small enrollment, so a disproportionate amount of its male student body are football players. I would love to see a relationship with Wofford and Furman and The Citadel over the years. We played the Terriers in a H/H in the late 90's early '00's. When ever we mention to our AD about playing some of the SoCon, the problem is, as you say, $$$. The SoCon schools use their OOCs for 'payday' games and don't want to 'waste' a date on a Lehigh or Colgate, too often (although I note Colgate was scheduled to play Furman this year only to be cancelled because of Florence). So hopefully, we can get there,again.

[Go...gate]

This kind of goes with the thread earlier because it's about SOS and stuff, but I really don't think we committed FCS fans understand the role that football plays in many of these institutions. Yes, there are some such as NDSU and in the Big Sky/MVFC/maybe even the CAA that play a tough OOC. Football is important part of the campus culture.

Then you have private school teams like Wofford or the directional state universities that don't win a lot in parts of the OVC and maybe Southland. Coach Conklin was asked about scheduling last night on his coaching show, and basically said "there's a formula" with one FBS game, and at least one local FCS game. Translation: it's about money. When asked about teams he'd like to play, he didn't say Montana or NDSU or EWU or James Madison, he talked about the Patriot league or the Ivys.

The fact is, for many of these institutions, money is an underlying motive. And if money *isn't* an issue, the overall school's brand is what drives the decision. Wofford as an institution sees football as a great force for marketing and wants to be in the same sentence as Colgate and Lehigh and the Ivys. We don't compete with MVFC teams for students.

I think teams should be rewarded for playing tough schedules, but in many cases schedules are ironed out years in advance. Like, Elon was not good when Furman ironed out their home and home with them. Though there are examples of good teams scheduling good teams years in advance, many of those teams appear "flash in the pan" (look at Charleston Southern). I don't think this is a Wofford or Socon problem exclusively, but one you'll see at any program (upstart or otherwise) where the bottom line is more fluid form year-to-year. Teams like Montana and NDSU can afford to not play FBS teams for some years because of their attendance, but that's not the reality for most programs.

That's why I'm less inclined to punish teams for playing so-so schedules. Because the players on the field can't be blamed for the team the AD lines them up against. And again, that's not to say that I value a 9-2 Pioneer league team to a 7-4 MVFC team, but at a certain point the committee has to take minor risks on 8-3 and 9-2 teams in full-scholarship conferences. And if they don't pan out, we remember that next time.

Would love to see Wofford play some games against Colgate and all the PL schools.

[Daytripper]

I saw that. Wouldn't that be nice! xlolx I bet Bearkat fans will be cheering on UCA in two weeks...

Yes we will. Not sure how the tiebreaker works but McNeese beat Nicholls who beat SHSU. So they win that common opponent battle. On the flip side if UCA beats McNeese, and we have already beaten UCA, we win that common opponent battle..... It'll all come out in the wash I guess. GO BEARS!

[BEAR]

Yes we will. Not sure how the tiebreaker works but McNeese beat Nicholls who beat SHSU. So they win that common opponent battle. On the flip side if UCA beats McNeese, and we have already beaten UCA, we win that common opponent battle..... It'll all come out in the wash I guess. GO BEARS!

If UCA/McNeese/SHSU all end up with 1 loss in the conference then its a shared title. For the playoffs I believe since McNeese is the longest since going last they would get the autobid. Since SHSU beat UCA they would get first at-large, then UCA. Might be wrong about that though...

Not too worried either way. We are getting depleted on offense and our defense is solid up front but lacking outside. We wouldn't make it past the first round anyway.

[Daytripper]

If UCA/McNeese/SHSU all end up with 1 loss in the conference then its a shared title. For the playoffs I believe since McNeese is the longest since going last they would get the autobid. Since SHSU beat UCA they would get first at-large, then UCA. Might be wrong about that though...

Not too worried either way. We are getting depleted on offense and our defense is solid up front but lacking outside. We wouldn't make it past the first round anyway.

I think if UCA/McNeese/SHSU all finish with one conference loss, all three get in. UCA by virtue of beating a top team in McNeese. McNeese by virtue of beating a really good team in Nicholls (here's hoping they win out). And SHSU finishing with eight straight wins and beating a top team in UCA.

[Reign of Terrier]

I am always amazed at how Wofford has been able to be so competitive, not just in its conference, but nationally. It has a small enrollment, so a disproportionate amount of its male student body are football players. I would love to see a relationship with Wofford and Furman and The Citadel over the years. We played the Terriers in a H/H in the late 90's early '00's. When ever we mention to our AD about playing some of the SoCon, the problem is, as you say, $$$. The SoCon schools use their OOCs for 'payday' games and don't want to 'waste' a date on a Lehigh or Colgate, too often (although I note Colgate was scheduled to play Furman this year only to be cancelled because of Florence). So hopefully, we can get there,again.


Would love to see Wofford play some games against Colgate and all the PL schools.

I think there's a good chance it could happen in the early 2020s if we get on that now. $$$ is the overall issue. I would rather play a patriot team once a year than both PC and Gardner Webb. We need one of those games for the aforementioned reasons (or Kennesaw State or a GA/NC/SC school), but I think having one game with the Colgate/Lehigh/another Patriot team would be awesome.

[BEAR]

I think if UCA/McNeese/SHSU all finish with one conference loss, all three get in. UCA by virtue of beating a top team in McNeese. McNeese by virtue of beating a really good team in Nicholls (here's hoping they win out). And SHSU finishing with eight straight wins and beating a top team in UCA.

Yeah if all three of us went 9-2 and shared the conference title then likely all 3 are in but McNeese get the auto, Sam gets 1st at large, then UCA because you have to look at what's left after McNeese getting the auto.

[BisonTru]

This kind of goes with the thread earlier because it's about SOS and stuff, but I really don't think we committed FCS fans understand the role that football plays in many of these institutions. Yes, there are some such as NDSU and in the Big Sky/MVFC/maybe even the CAA that play a tough OOC. Football is important part of the campus culture.

Then you have private school teams like Wofford or the directional state universities that don't win a lot in parts of the OVC and maybe Southland. Coach Conklin was asked about scheduling last night on his coaching show, and basically said "there's a formula" with one FBS game, and at least one local FCS game. Translation: it's about money. When asked about teams he'd like to play, he didn't say Montana or NDSU or EWU or James Madison, he talked about the Patriot league or the Ivys.

The fact is, for many of these institutions, money is an underlying motive. And if money *isn't* an issue, the overall school's brand is what drives the decision. Wofford as an institution sees football as a great force for marketing and wants to be in the same sentence as Colgate and Lehigh and the Ivys. We don't compete with MVFC teams for students.

I think teams should be rewarded for playing tough schedules, but in many cases schedules are ironed out years in advance. Like, Elon was not good when Furman ironed out their home and home with them. Though there are examples of good teams scheduling good teams years in advance, many of those teams appear "flash in the pan" (look at Charleston Southern). I don't think this is a Wofford or Socon problem exclusively, but one you'll see at any program (upstart or otherwise) where the bottom line is more fluid form year-to-year. Teams like Montana and NDSU can afford to not play FBS teams for some years because of their attendance, but that's not the reality for most programs.

That's why I'm less inclined to punish teams for playing so-so schedules. Because the players on the field can't be blamed for the team the AD lines them up against. And again, that's not to say that I value a 9-2 Pioneer league team to a 7-4 MVFC team, but at a certain point the committee has to take minor risks on 8-3 and 9-2 teams in full-scholarship conferences. And if they don't pan out, we remember that next time.

I do agree with you that for many FCS schools their hands are tied on scheduling either thru money or just location. NDSU is no exception to this, well maybe the money part, but we have a very difficult time finding FBS schools to play us and FCS teams don't want to pay the expense of a flight just to come out here for a very likely loss.

For that, I do agree a team shouldn't be punished for a weak schedule, but at the same time a school shouldn't be punished for a strong schedule. IMO, if I believe team A is better than team B, and team A has 6 D1 wins, regardless of how many wins team B has team A should get the nod. Now if team B is beating up on a weak schedule and I think they are the better team by all means they should get the spot.

[ST_Lawson]

These last two points are the biggest factors why I believe the MVFC gets 4 tops and might even shrink to 3 playoff teams if ISUr joins that party of beating everybody else. Both times in the past a 6 win MVFC team has made the field (WIU in '15 and ISUr in '16) they had a good FBS win. Even last year with USD was one of the last teams in at 7-4 they had an FBS win. None of the MVFC bubble teams have that this year (unless ISUr falls back to the bubble). Unless the bubble is exceptionally weak I don't think we see any 6 win MVFC teams in the field this year.

UNI needs to beat either SDSU or ISUr to get to 7 wins. Missouri St needs to avoid getting swept in their last 3 games (@SDSU, NDSU, @UNI). USD needs to beat either NDSU or SDSU. WIU and YSU need to win out. Unless NDSU and SDSU give one or two of these teams the signature win they need it's going to be tough for anyone outside of those two and ISUr to make the field. xtwocentsx

Just as a point of clarification...WIU didn't beat an FBS in 2015. Our OOC schedule was: beat then #25 Eastern Illinois 33-5, Lost at FBS Illinois 44-0, Lost at then #1 Coastal Carolina 34-27.
In conference, we won at then #12 UNI and at home against then #5 SDSU (as well as SIU, USD, and INSU), lost to #3 ILSU, #24 YSU, and #5 NDSU.
https://goleathernecks.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=212
WIU finished 1-2 OOC, 5-3 in the MVFC, 6-5 overall, but against the #1 toughest SoS (according to Massey) in the FCS.
We got picked ahead of multiple 7-4 teams (Northern Arizona, North Dakota, Towson, UT-Martin, Western Carolina, and Central Arkansas). That's why UND was so pissed about it (you know...weight room and whatnot), because they were 7-4 with a 5-3 conference record and had beaten FBS Wyoming.

I agree with your point that no 6-win MVFC makes it this year. Of the current 2-4 teams, WIU has a better chance than YSU at getting to 7. Either team would have to win out to do it and it's not going to be easy for either, but we've already played NDSU and Illinois State. Games that are left for each team...
YSU - USD, INSU, @NDSU, UNI, @ILSU
WIU - @MSU, UNI, @SIU, @USD, INSU
Obviously MSU is improved, UNI and USD are going to be tough, we should win against SIU and INSU, but all of those are what I'd consider "possible". I just don't see this year's YSU team winning at both NDSU and Illinois State.

[Professor Chaos]

Just as a point of clarification...WIU didn't beat an FBS in 2015. Our OOC schedule was: beat then #25 Eastern Illinois 33-5, Lost at FBS Illinois 44-0, Lost at then #1 Coastal Carolina 34-27.
In conference, we won at then #12 UNI and at home against then #5 SDSU (as well as SIU, USD, and INSU), lost to #3 ILSU, #24 YSU, and #5 NDSU.
https://goleathernecks.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=212
WIU finished 1-2 OOC, 5-3 in the MVFC, 6-5 overall, but against the #1 toughest SoS (according to Massey) in the FCS.
We got picked ahead of multiple 7-4 teams (Northern Arizona, North Dakota, Towson, UT-Martin, Western Carolina, and Central Arkansas). That's why UND was so pissed about it (you know...weight room and whatnot), because they were 7-4 with a 5-3 conference record and had beaten FBS Wyoming.

I agree with your point that no 6-win MVFC makes it this year. Of the current 2-4 teams, WIU has a better chance than YSU at getting to 7. Either team would have to win out to do it and it's not going to be easy for either, but we've already played NDSU and Illinois State. Games that are left for each team...
YSU - USD, INSU, @NDSU, UNI, @ILSU
WIU - @MSU, UNI, @SIU, @USD, INSU
Obviously MSU is improved, UNI and USD are going to be tough, we should win against SIU and INSU, but all of those are what I'd consider "possible". I just don't see this year's YSU team winning at both NDSU and Illinois State.
Ah yeah, good call. I do recall WIU having an insanely tough schedule that year. The MVFC was also stupid good OOC both that year and in 2014. It wasn't as good OOC this year... we'll see whether that plays a factor in at-large selections or not. The NCAA claims their SRS ranking "tool" factors strongly in how the committee determines SOS.

[ST_Lawson]

It wasn't as good OOC this year... we'll see whether that plays a factor in at-large selections or not. The NCAA claims their SRS ranking "tool" factors strongly in how the committee determines SOS.

I think that's probably why you see the ones that might otherwise be "even" going to the MVFC teams. Like, you're always going to end up with a handful of decent teams from good conferences finishing 7-4 (assuming standard 11-game season)...some get picked, some don't, depending on how deep the field is that year, but when was the last time that a 7-4 MVFC team didn't get picked? Indiana State in 2012. You can also look at 2013 YSU, who went 8-4 in a 12-game season and didn't get in because they finished the season with 3 straight losses, but in 11-game seasons, it's been since 2012, which was around the time the MVFC started to pick up steam and move ahead of the other top conferences.

It looks like the gap is closing again, but the MVFC is still on top. If you look at the Massey Ratings list of the toughest SoS, in previous years, I seem to remember pretty much the entire top 10 (except maybe 1 team every now and then) being just a list of the MVFC teams and then essentially ranked based on how tough their OOC was. This year, as of right now, 1-6 are MVFC, as are #8 and #10, but #7 is CAA (Elon) as is #9 (New Hampshire). YSU is down at #11 and Indiana State is all the way down at #24, which was practically unheard of the last couple of years...even for the school who didn't have to play NDSU. But, they played EIU in a way down year and a mediocre DII team, so there's that.

It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out if we get more non-MVFC teams with strong SoS ratings finish on the "bubble"...like if Elon (#7), Weber State (#12), and Towson (#13) all finish 7-4.