Southern Conference Week 6 Power Rankings/Pick 'Em.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 4-2 last week. VMI came up short and so did Western. I told you that the Bucs were no joke. Here's where I have after this week (numbers in parenthesis indicates the number of wins needed vs. games remaining for a chance at an at-large bid).

1) Wofford (4 of 7) - Terriers burned down the house on the road.
2) East Tennessee State (4 of 6) - Bucs defended their house and the "Rail."
3) Chattanooga (3 of 6) - Mocs' train ride to Comeback City comes up short.
4) Mercer (4 of 6) - Bears gave a great effort.
5) Furman (6 of 6) - At last, they got their first win at home.
6) Western Carolina (5 of 7) - Lost a close one.
7) The Citadel (OUT*) - Had a valiant effort only to come up short.
8) Samford (OUT) - Is beginning to become to this year what Chattanooga was last season.
9) VMI (OUT) - Offense is showing me something, defense not so much.

*Last game vs. Charleston Southern scheduled during playoffs.

This week's games
Western Carolina vs. Samford - Cats take out their frustration on the road.
Wofford vs. Chattanooga (Game of the Week) - Mocs respond by winning a close one
Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU - Bucs continue to defend this house.

Keep me in prayer as I found out yesterday my employer lost the contract I was on for the past year.

[bonarae]

WCU - Samford's season is lost already. They are the UNH of the SoCon.
Chattanooga - Wofford can make this a toss-up game...
ETSU

[PaladinFan]

WCU - Samford's season is lost already. They are the UNH of the SoCon.
Chattanooga - Wofford can make this a toss-up game...
ETSU

I haven't done the math on Samford, but I imagine there's at least a possibility they could end up with the SoCon's autobid with a 6-2 finish in the conference. There are way too many variables at this point to determine that with any certainty.

[PaladinFan]

Learn this kid's name: Adrian Hope.

Currently leading SoCon in sacks with 6 as a freshman. He had 3 last night and probably should have had 2 or 3 more (hats off to Adams). Furman recruited him out of Florida, where he notched 56 sacks in two seasons in Florida's highest classification.

WCU couldn't block him. On this play he speed rushes to the outside, stops, and looks like he jabs his left arm into the neck of WCU's left tackle and drives him straight back into Tyrie Adams. An impressive display of power.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046107996630200320

[wcugrad95]

Learn this kid's name: Adrian Hope.

Currently leading SoCon in sacks with 6 as a freshman. He had 3 last night and probably should have had 2 or 3 more (hats off to Adams). Furman recruited him out of Florida, where he notched 56 sacks in two seasons in Florida's highest classification.

WCU couldn't block him. On this play he speed rushes to the outside, stops, and looks like he jabs his left arm into the neck of WCU's left tackle and drives him straight back into Tyrie Adams. An impressive display of power.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046107996630200320

Slight addendum - WCU couldn't block him on their way to 577 yards offense and what should have been probably 48 points without a fumble at the 1-yard line and another in the red zone.

Just teasing you @PaladinFan - Hope looks like he will be a very good one, but everybody pokes the WCU defense and I thought the Furman defense looked pretty porous as well. Maybe it is WCU's offense is that good? Don't know - but we had the most yards and the 2nd most points we have scored this season yesterday.

[wcugrad95]

For power rankings and picks, I have to go back and look at more of the SoCon games yesterday. After this weekend, it seems there is even more of a question. Wofford will still be #1, ETSU should climb into #2, VMI keeps getting closer but has to stay at #9. The only game I watched every play of was WCU/Furman - and that game could have gone either way (so they are going to be side-by-side somewhere in my rankings).

[PaladinFan]

Slight addendum - WCU couldn't block him on their way to 577 yards offense and what should have been probably 48 points without a fumble at the 1-yard line and another in the red zone.

Just teasing you @PaladinFan - Hope looks like he will be a very good one, but everybody pokes the WCU defense and I thought the Furman defense looked pretty porous as well. Maybe it is WCU's offense is that good? Don't know - but we had the most yards and the 2nd most points we have scored this season yesterday.

Furman's defense didn't have a banner day, but I didn't hate how they looked. They held WCU over 100 yards off their average rushing attack and under their typical offensive output. We didn't tackle as well as I would like to see, and lost some guys in coverage, but I didn't hate the overall effort. They'd given up 10 points in the first half.

As I said in the preseason, WCU goes as far as Adams carries them. He was a one man wrecking crew yesterday. Even Hendrix said after the game that he was the only QB we will likely see all season that could make some of the plays he did. WCU's final touchdown he threw on a dime 25 yards while Hope was dragging him to the ground.

Adams isn't Armanti Edwards, but a lot of what I saw yesterday was reminiscent of him.

[PaladinFan]

Also, nice to see Dejuan Bell get a little redemption. Furman's freshman kick returner who made the crippling mental mistake against ETSU that directly lead to the Bucs two-point win housed a 97-yard return for a touchdown against WCU.

[wcugrad95]

They held WCU over 100 yards off their average rushing attack and under their typical offensive output.

Coming in, WCU was averaging 503 yards and 37 points against what everybody says was terrible competition. Yesterday we had 577 and 38 (and like I said, should have been AT MINIMUM 7 more with the fumble at the 1). You did hold the running game down, but that had a lot to do with how the game was going (we aren't generally going to throw it 40 times). I don't think either team has a good defense based on the 4 games we have seen so far.

[PaladinFan]

Coming in, WCU was averaging 503 yards and 37 points. Yesterday we had 577 and 38 (and like I said, should have been AT MINIMUM 7 more with the fumble at the 1). You did hold the running game down, but that had a lot to do with how the game was going (we aren't generally going to throw it 40 times). I don't think either team has a good defense based on the 4 games we have seen so far.

It's long been my opinion that "total yards" is a misleading statistic. You win by putting the ball in the endzone, not by racking up a bunch of yards between the 20s. From that perspective, fumbling on the 1 isn't really any different than fumbling anywhere else.

There's no question that neither team had a good day defensively. Of course, these were also the two best offenses from last season, so that's not terribly surprising either if both teams were clicking offensively.

At the end of the day, Furman made a few more plays. That was a contrast to last week, where Furman - in a very similar feeling game - wasn't able to shut the door. It was nice to see them close this one out and forget last week's debacle.

[wcugrad95]

I am not going with the coulda, shoulda,woulda. The fumbles, blocked punt, KO return, etc. all count and the final score is the final score. If these teams played 10 times we might actually see a 5-5 kind of split. I was just pointing out that neither has a particularly good defense, as any team that scores 38 points and loses (or 44 and has to hold on) indicates that side of the ball as the problem.

And you pointed out that Furman held Western under their typical output - so just pointing out they didn't (in yards or points).

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford's defense was good last year, but we are even better now. We're running more schemes. We're running press coverage and blitzing more. We are not the same team as last year.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[wcugrad95]

I think Wofford, ETSU, and Chattanooga have clearly shown they are playing the best defense in the conference. Defense usually wins championships (or at least give you a really good chance). I still expect some of the better offenses to put up some decent numbers, but as PaladinFan said yards don't always equal points.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm impressed looking at the season stat line for Wofford so far. We're in the top 10 total offense and defense so far this year.

Yes our schedule is relatively weak right now and yes the defenses we've played aren't good.

But, top to bottom, you can't ask for much more out of us in terms of production

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[tenNesseeCat]

fumbling on the 1 isn't really any different than fumbling anywhere else.

xeyebrowx

Fumbling on the opposing 20 is way better than your own 20, even from that perspective. I hate we lost that one right before halftime, but that was WAY better than had it been fumbled on the kickoff or punt return at the other end of the field. Furman woulda had plenty of time to score again, instead of running the clock out.

I don't buy that paladin decree.

[wcugrad95]

Here is something to think about with the SoCon.

Currently we find ETSU at the top of the standings with a 3-0 league record (Wofford has only played 2 conference games). Diving in a little, 3 weeks ago the Bucs trailed VMI by 4 points as the game went into the 4th quarter. They only mustered 324 yards against the Keydets while the other league teams have gone for 500+ (Wofford set all-time school records). Then last week, the Paladins led ETSU by 21 points in the second half and a tidal wave of everything going their way let them prevail (I think they still would have won in OT just with how Uncle Mo was flowing, anyway). This weekend they had their best win on paper, but again they had a total of 265 yards where 50 came on one long TD. It looks like they have a good to very good defense, and a "do enough" offense. But they could easily be 1-2 or even 0-3 right now. They keep score for a reason, so they are currently in first place.

Then on the complete opposite side of the spectrum we find VMI. The Keydets got run off the field by Wofford, but since then had an opportunity to beat ETSU as mentioned. Then they seemed to get in their groove with the Air Raid in a game against WCU that they could have easily won. And totally snake-bitten, they lost by 10 to Mercer yesterday in a game where they got the ball inside the 5 on 2 occasions and scored no offensive points (did turn one into a safety). Again, we keep score for a reason and they are 0-4 in the SoCon but could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1.

Just looking at those 2 teams show how crazy this season has been so far.

[Reign of Terrier]

The defense in this conference is a trainwreck.

As of now, 5 of the 9 teams have allowed FCS competition to score on them 40% of the time or more. That's really not good, especially when the best offenses nationally score 45-55% of the time. The exceptions are Wofford, with a strong 13% score-rate (which is a huge improvement on last year) and Chattanooga/ETSU at below 30% and Mercer at about 33%.

Only 3 teams are scoring above 40% of possessions, Wofford, Mercer, and Western.

ETSU may be undefeated in FCS, but their offense has struggled mightily, second worst in the Socon in terms of scoring percentage (and really, they're at the margin of error with the worst team in VMI, 27.3% to 27% respectively). Their defense is the only thing keeping them in it, and to be honest with you, unless they've made leaps and bounds compared to last year on that side of the ball (I'm skeptical), I don't think that they are going to be great.

Chattanooga doesn't have a run game, but they have a solid passing game and a solid defense. Turnovers killed them against ETSU, but they're still a question mark.

The Citadel has a great offense but a terrible defense. 3 bad turnovers by Wofford are the only reason Wofford didn't pulverize them into oblivion. But they are measurably better on offense compared to last year, and will be a .500 or so team, like last year, but still very competitive.

Furman is still a wildcard, but I think they have some problems on defense. Though their offense looked great against Western Carolina, they're still a question mark. The reason I'm skeptical of their defense is because I was skeptical last year, but also because their performance against ETSU, given how Herink seemed to continue the mediocrity trend yesterday against Chatt has me skeptical.

Mercer still looks good on offense (for now) without Riddle, but we need more information to say for certain. VMI's defense is bad. What's interesting to me is that Mercer's defense was really good last year and I expected them to be at the same level or better, but so far they haven't played as good. They're about a scoring possession or two worse than they were last year, which can be a huge difference in conference play. Thankfully, I think they'll rally behind Riley.

Samford is a mess. They limited Kennesaw to less than 300 yards of offense, but Kennesaw never punted. There were only 8 possession for both teams in this one. Last year, Samford relied heavily on forcing turnovers to get their defense off the field. That doesn't seem to be happening this year. Samford is letting FCS teams score on them 51.7% of their possessions. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll find a way to give my terriers trouble, just watch.

VMI is gonna beat somebody. I don't know who, but they can chunk that ball all over the yard and someone will lose. Their defense is actually not as bad as the stats suggest, as there are 3 teams getting scored on more often than them.

Western Carolina is a dumpster fire on defense and their offense is very good, but not good enough to risk turnovers with the defense they have. Put another way, Western's defense is so bad that there's little margin of error for the offense. They aren't going to do well against the better defenses in the conference, like Wofford or Mercer.

Wofford has to be your favorite right now. Yes, we're pulverizing inferior competition, but it's been literally years since we've done that. Our defense is measurably improved and more diverse than last year. That's noticeable in the stat column as we're getting more sacks (we had 16 total last year, which was bad, and already have 10 4 games in) and are ranking pretty high in numerous defensive categories. Basically, we're playing how you'd expect a top 10 team to play at this point. We obviously haven't beaten anybody big yet, but if we minimize our turnovers, we'll win the socon at this rate.

[Reign of Terrier]

I was 4-2 last week. VMI came up short and so did Western. I told you that the Bucs were no joke. Here's where I have after this week (numbers in parenthesis indicates the number of wins needed vs. games remaining for a chance at an at-large bid).

1) Wofford (4 of 7) - Terriers burned down the house on the road.
2) East Tennessee State (4 of 6) - Bucs defended their house and the "Rail."
3) Chattanooga (3 of 6) - Mocs' train ride to Comeback City comes up short.
4) Mercer (4 of 6) - Bears gave a great effort.
5) Furman (6 of 6) - At last, they got their first win at home.
6) Western Carolina (5 of 7) - Lost a close one.
7) The Citadel (OUT*) - Had a valiant effort only to come up short.
8) Samford (OUT) - Is beginning to become to this year what Chattanooga was last season.
9) VMI (OUT) - Offense is showing me something, defense not so much.

*Last game vs. Charleston Southern scheduled during playoffs.

This week's games
Western Carolina vs. Samford - Cats take out their frustration on the road.
Wofford vs. Chattanooga (Game of the Week) - Mocs respond by winning a close one
Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU - Bucs continue to defend this house.

Keep me in prayer as I found out yesterday my employer lost the contract I was on for the past year.

My power ranking:

1. Wofford
2. ETSU (I guess?)
3. Chattanooga
4. The Citadel
5. Mercer
6. Furman
7. Samford
8. Western
9. VMI

It's a really a giant mess of humanity between 2 and 9 though.

Picks for next week:

Western Carolina vs. Samford - Western's defense is terrible. Samford's is worse.

Wofford vs. Chattanooga (Game of the Week) - Wofford wins a statement game, I'm thinking 27ish to 10ish. Wofford's defense is the best chatt will have faced this year and our offense is probably better too.

Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU - Gardner Webb is very bad. 28-14 Bucs

[Reign of Terrier]

It's long been my opinion that "total yards" is a misleading statistic. You win by putting the ball in the endzone, not by racking up a bunch of yards between the 20s. From that perspective, fumbling on the 1 isn't really any different than fumbling anywhere else.

There's no question that neither team had a good day defensively. Of course, these were also the two best offenses from last season, so that's not terribly surprising either if both teams were clicking offensively.

At the end of the day, Furman made a few more plays. That was a contrast to last week, where Furman - in a very similar feeling game - wasn't able to shut the door. It was nice to see them close this one out and forget last week's debacle.

I agree, which is why I look at the scoring drives as a proportion of total possessions.

Spoiler alert: The Socon is terrible by this metric on defense this year when we were pretty decent last year.

[Milktruck74]

1. Wofford - until someone in the SoCon dethrones them...maybe this week?
2. ETSU - crazy to even think this. I do not think they are that good (read talented) but they are winning, and that says it all.
3. Furman - I think they are going to bring it and finish strong.
4. Mercer - Riley is still pretty good.
5. Chattanooga - I hope they don't stay here long, but they still haven't beaten anybody good.
6. Citadel - ????? Anybody know what is going on with the bellhops?
7. Samford - so much promise....unfulfilled
8. Western - Spier is a good man and a good coach, hopefully he can get things moving in the right direction.
9. VMI - They might sneak up and catch someone....they are not as bad as they were, but they are still pretty bad.

Western - by a little, and they gain a spot in the power index
Chattanooga - probably a heart pick, but I think a team that gets beat by an inferior talent has something to prove the next week....or roll over...we will see.
ETSU - not as talented as I expected them to be, but they are playing GWU....so they will win in a walk.

[Milktruck74]

0I can't see a scenario where anybody is 8-0 in SoCon play (Woffy will get caught).....I actually see a 3 way tie for 1st with 3 teams being 6-2 (or so.....Am I just being hopeful and keeping my Mocs in consideration for the Autobid? or do you see it too?

[Reign of Terrier]

0I can't see a scenario where anybody is 8-0 in SoCon play (Woffy will get caught).....I actually see a 3 way tie for 1st with 3 teams being 6-2 (or so.....Am I just being hopeful and keeping my Mocs in consideration for the Autobid? or do you see it too?

I'm very bullish on Wofford because 1) I'm a homer 2) measurable improvements and 3) The socon looks down this year.

Though for point 3 it's still too early to tell, *at this point in time,* I don't see two more losses on Wofford's schedule. I'll update my priors week-to-week, but right now we look more complete than most of the conference.

[Reign of Terrier]

Worth noting: Socon has only had co-champs at 2 losses 3 times, all in the last 11 years or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Southern_Conference_football_champions

But those are the only time in the league's 80something year history.

I honestly don't think it's likely, at least with a 3-way tie. The last time it happened, 2013, the league was really bad and we only sent 1 team to the playoffs. In 2012 it happened again, but most of the league was 7-4 or better. The Socon isn't that good this year.

I think there are 3 more likely scenarios:

1) a random team rallies after an early loss, Wofford and ETSU stumble and the aforementioned team wins it outright.
2) Wofford/ETSU runs the table
3) a random team ties with Wofford for the conference title.

I'm not so bullish to say Wofford will win the socon today, but there's a bigger margin of error this year it seems.

[Mocs123]

8. Western - Spier is a good man and a good coach, hopefully he can get things moving in the right direction.


Spier's WCU teams remind me a bit of Donnie Kirkpatric's Chattanooga teams. We could score 50 and still lose. I kept thinking then that he would hire a D-Coordinator that could get it straightened out but he didn't.

[PaladinFan]

I'm very bullish on Wofford because 1) I'm a homer 2) measurable improvements and 3) The socon looks down this year.

Though for point 3 it's still too early to tell, *at this point in time,* I don't see two more losses on Wofford's schedule. I'll update my priors week-to-week, but right now we look more complete than most of the conference.

Furman gets another off week before the Terriers and will play them in Greenville.

A healthy Harris Roberts has helped immensely. He's not Ingle Martin, but he's the best QB Furman has right now. The offense has looked a lot stronger with him under center.

[PaladinFan]

Spier's WCU teams remind me a bit of Donnie Kirkpatric's Chattanooga teams. We could score 50 and still lose. I kept thinking then that he would hire a D-Coordinator that could get it straightened out but he didn't.

If you watched WCU/Furman, I didn't get the impression that the Catamounts were out-schemed. A lot of Furman's big plays were just a guy putting his foot in the ground and outrunning WCU defenders.

On Furman's end it was sort of the opposite. A large portion of WCU's big plays were busted coverages. WCU receivers just running uncovered down the field.

[wcugrad95]

This is not my power ranking, but here is the current SoCon standings and my notes on each team. I know WCU has massive defensive issues, but I think so do several other teams. The difference between several of those teams ***could be*** how good their offenses are. Western has a pretty good offense.

1- ETSU 3-0 (4-1 overall)
The Bucs could EASILY be 1-2 or even 0-3 in conference. They trailed VMI in the 4th quarter, were down by 21 to Furman in the 2nd half, and had a total of 265 yards (50 on one long TD) yesterday against UTC. But the scoreboard says they are 3-0.

2- Wofford 2-0 (3-1 overall)
Currently, and rightfully so, the Terriers appear to be the team to beat.

3- Chattanooga 2-1 (4-1 overall)
The Mocs appear to have a pretty good defense. Still looks like some questions on offense.

4- Mercer 2-1 (3-2 overall)
Don't look as good with Riley as they did with Riddle, but appear to be a solid team.

5- WCU 1-1 (3-1 overall) and Furman 1-1 (1-3 overall)
Ended up looking like 2 evenly matched teams. Western's offense overall is better, neither team looks great on defense. Special teams and untimely turnovers ended up being the difference, and if they played 10 times they might split (WCU wins when they don't have those miscues, lose when they do).

7- Citadel 1-2 (1-3 overall)
They didn't look good against a dynamic offense/QB yesterday losing 44-27 to Towson. They have played well against 3 SoCon teams, but lost 2 of the games. One more conference loss and they are out of the playoff picture.

8- Samford 0-2 (1-4 overall)
By far the most shocking, the Bulldogs have not played well since putting the scare into the highly over-rated FSU Seminoles. Clearly one of the most talented teams, they have to win out and hope to win the SoCon for a shot at the playoffs. The Bulldogs are going to play desperate, at least until they get their next loss.

9- VMI 0-4 (0-5)
Already put in my earlier post. The Keydets are closer to not being in the celler than they have been in a long time. After getting run off the field by Wofford, they had an opportunity to beat ETSU (lead in the 4th quarter). Then they seemed to get in their groove with the Air Raid in the game against us that they could have easily won. And totally snake-bitten, they lost by 10 to Mercer yesterday in a game where they got the ball inside the 5 on 2 occasions and scored no offensive points (did turn one into a safety). Again, we keep score for a reason and they are 0-4 in the SoCon but could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1.

[SCPALADIN]

This is not my power ranking, but here is the current SoCon standings and my notes on each team. I know WCU has massive defensive issues, but I think so do several other teams. The difference between several of those teams ***could be*** how good their offenses are. Western has a pretty good offense.

1- ETSU 3-0 (4-1 overall)
The Bucs could EASILY be 1-2 or even 0-3 in conference. They trailed VMI in the 4th quarter, were down by 21 to Furman in the 2nd half, and had a total of 265 yards (50 on one long TD) yesterday against UTC. But the scoreboard says they are 3-0.

2- Wofford 2-0 (3-1 overall)
Currently, and rightfully so, the Terriers appear to be the team to beat.

3- Chattanooga 2-1 (4-1 overall)
The Mocs appear to have a pretty good defense. Still looks like some questions on offense.

4- Mercer 2-1 (3-2 overall)
Don't look as good with Riley as they did with Riddle, but appear to be a solid team.

5- WCU 1-1 (3-1 overall) and Furman 1-1 (1-3 overall)
Ended up looking like 2 evenly matched teams. Western's offense overall is better, neither team looks great on defense. Special teams and untimely turnovers ended up being the difference, and if they played 10 times they might split (WCU wins when they don't have those miscues, lose when they do).

7- Citadel 1-2 (1-3 overall)
They didn't look good against a dynamic offense/QB yesterday losing 44-27 to Towson. They have played well against 3 SoCon teams, but lost 2 of the games. One more conference loss and they are out of the playoff picture.

8- Samford 0-2 (1-4 overall)
By far the most shocking, the Bulldogs have not played well since putting the scare into the highly over-rated FSU Seminoles. Clearly one of the most talented teams, they have to win out and hope to win the SoCon for a shot at the playoffs. The Bulldogs are going to play desperate, at least until they get their next loss.

9- VMI 0-4 (0-5)
Already put in my earlier post. The Keydets are closer to not being in the celler than they have been in a long time. After getting run off the field by Wofford, they had an opportunity to beat ETSU (lead in the 4th quarter). Then they seemed to get in their groove with the Air Raid in the game against us that they could have easily won. And totally snake-bitten, they lost by 10 to Mercer yesterday in a game where they got the ball inside the 5 on 2 occasions and scored no offensive points (did turn one into a safety). Again, we keep score for a reason and they are 0-4 in the SoCon but could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1.

You may want to look this post over one more time...xdrunkyx

[FUBeAR]

The defense in this conference is a trainwreck.

As of now, 5 of the 9 teams have allowed FCS competition to score on them 40% of the time or more. That's really not good, especially when the best offenses nationally score 45-55% of the time. The exceptions are Wofford, with a strong 13% score-rate (which is a huge improvement on last year) and Chattanooga/ETSU at below 30% and Mercer at about 33%.

Only 3 teams are scoring above 40% of possessions, Wofford, Mercer, and Western.

ETSU may be undefeated in FCS, but their offense has struggled mightily, second worst in the Socon in terms of scoring percentage (and really, they're at the margin of error with the worst team in VMI, 27.3% to 27% respectively). Their defense is the only thing keeping them in it, and to be honest with you, unless they've made leaps and bounds compared to last year on that side of the ball (I'm skeptical), I don't think that they are going to be great.

Chattanooga doesn't have a run game, but they have a solid passing game and a solid defense. Turnovers killed them against ETSU, but they're still a question mark.

The Citadel has a great offense but a terrible defense. 3 bad turnovers by Wofford are the only reason Wofford didn't pulverize them into oblivion. But they are measurably better on offense compared to last year, and will be a .500 or so team, like last year, but still very competitive.

Furman is still a wildcard, but I think they have some problems on defense. Though their offense looked great against Western Carolina, they're still a question mark. The reason I'm skeptical of their defense is because I was skeptical last year, but also because their performance against ETSU, given how Herink seemed to continue the mediocrity trend yesterday against Chatt has me skeptical.

Mercer still looks good on offense (for now) without Riddle, but we need more information to say for certain. VMI's defense is bad. What's interesting to me is that Mercer's defense was really good last year and I expected them to be at the same level or better, but so far they haven't played as good. They're about a scoring possession or two worse than they were last year, which can be a huge difference in conference play. Thankfully, I think they'll rally behind Riley.

Samford is a mess. They limited Kennesaw to less than 300 yards of offense, but Kennesaw never punted. There were only 8 possession for both teams in this one. Last year, Samford relied heavily on forcing turnovers to get their defense off the field. That doesn't seem to be happening this year. Samford is letting FCS teams score on them 51.7% of their possessions. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll find a way to give my terriers trouble, just watch.

VMI is gonna beat somebody. I don't know who, but they can chunk that ball all over the yard and someone will lose. Their defense is actually not as bad as the stats suggest, as there are 3 teams getting scored on more often than them.

Western Carolina is a dumpster fire on defense and their offense is very good, but not good enough to risk turnovers with the defense they have. Put another way, Western's defense is so bad that there's little margin of error for the offense. They aren't going to do well against the better defenses in the conference, like Wofford or Mercer.

Wofford has to be your favorite right now. Yes, we're pulverizing inferior competition, but it's been literally years since we've done that. Our defense is measurably improved and more diverse than last year. That's noticeable in the stat column as we're getting more sacks (we had 16 total last year, which was bad, and already have 10 4 games in) and are ranking pretty high in numerous defensive categories. Basically, we're playing how you'd expect a top 10 team to play at this point. We obviously haven't beaten anybody big yet, but if we minimize our turnovers, we'll win the socon at this rate.+1 - Nice work. I can’t find anything in here to argue with...and you know I would like to ;)

[FUBeAR]

You may want to look this post over one more time...xdrunkyxFU is grouped in there, but mentioned AFTER WCU in his post. Either he went with the better overall record driving his listing order or alphabetizing is a lost art in Cullowhee.

[wcugrad95]

@SCPaladin - curious what I missed? Those are the current standings, and everything else is my opinion.

[wcugrad95]

FU is grouped in there, but mentioned AFTER WCU in his post. Either he went with the better overall record driving his listing order or alphabetizing is a lost art in Cullowhee.

I put them exactly as they show up on the SoCon site:

http://www.soconsports.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&SPID=1781&SPSID=21895&DB_OEM_ID=4000

If teams have the same conference record, the team with the better overall record gets put higher. But I actually listed them both as tied for 5th. Furman would have the tiebreaker at the end with the head-to-head.

[SCPALADIN]

I put them exactly as they show up on the SoCon site:

http://www.soconsports.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4000&SPID=1781&SPSID=21895&DB_OEM_ID=4000

If teams have the same conference record, the team with the better overall record gets put higher. But I actually listed them both as tied for 5th. Furman would have the tiebreaker at the end with the head-to-head.

Missed that you grouped both Furman and WCU under 5th...shouldn't watch my Browns, drink, and post at the same time.

[kdinva]

I'll wait 3 or 4 more weeks before I attempt to rank the teams........too wild!


Western Carolina 31; Samford 38 (don't want samford still angry when VMI visits the next week :D ]
Wofford 31; UTC 24
Gardner-Webb 10; ETSU 35

[ETSUfan1]

Terrier, I noticed you’ve knocked last year’s ETSU defense a few times. ETSU was third in the league in defense last year, so I’m not sure why you keep saying that.

I am very surprised to be 4-1 at this point, but the Bucs are just playing so hard right now. The effort is definitely there. And yes, defense does win games.

[wcugrad95]

Last year (per the SoCon Sports site and stats), ETSU was #3 in total defense (based on yards allowed per game), but they were #8 in scoring defense - they gave up 52 to JMU, 56 to Furman, 49 to WCU, and 42 to Samford (the 4 best offenses they faced). Against SoCon competition, they gave up 31, 23, 56, 49, 31, 6, 10, and 42 (average of 31/game in conference).

YT does his calculation primarily driven by how efficient an offense/defense is - so the number of scores you get or give up per possession. Yards are not going to be as important as TDs or FGs in his model, and most would agree scoring defense is going to be the more critical stat than yards allowed. I say all that fully aware WCU is going to be low on both this season (even though right now WCU is 5th in scoring defense and total defense this season) :)

[ETSUfan1]

Fair enough. I think our defense is really playing well right now. And I honestly do believe we are probably one of the better defenses in the Southern conference. Our schedule has been very favorable so far. Two conference home games, and the road game being at VMI. If we are going to show we are serious, we are going to have to win these upcoming road games. I hope some of the players in this league are taking ETSU as seriously as some of the fans. It’s just nice to have football gentleman.

[Reign of Terrier]

Terrier, I noticed you’ve knocked last year’s ETSU defense a few times. ETSU was third in the league in defense last year, so I’m not sure why you keep saying that.

I am very surprised to be 4-1 at this point, but the Bucs are just playing so hard right now. The effort is definitely there. And yes, defense does win games.Those stats are skewed by playing Limestone, Robert Morris and NO FBS team (JMU doesn't count). If you look at the teams that had a semblance of an offense last year, ETSU was terrible.

Wofford made some bad mistakes and had our own deal going on and we still scored 31.

Citadel: 31
Samford: 42
Western Carolina: 49
Furman: 56

ETSU got hit in the face every time they played the option last year. That is not what the third best defense in the league looks like. Though the stats may seem favorable, if you look closer they weren't that impressive. Wofford, Furman and the citadel had over 400 yards of offense, while Western Carolina and Samford took the foot off the gas because they each had much bigger leads than the run-oriented teams (thanks to some defensive scores), otherwise they probably would have gotten there too.

I'm open to the fact that they improved, but what I've seen so far doesn't suggest that. But there are more games to be played and information to be gathered. On the positive note, they've held 3 teams under 30, which is progress, but we don't know how good they are yet.

Still...I will stand by my assessment of ETSU's defense last year. The best defenses (by eye test, stop rate, etc) last year were Mercer, Wofford, Chattanooga, and Furman (probably in that order, but I'm only convinced Mercer had the best).

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[wcugrad95]

I stated it earlier in another post - so far, ETSU, UTC, and of course Wofford have looked like the teams playing legitimate defense so far.

[Reign of Terrier]

Fair enough. I think our defense is really playing well right now. And I honestly do believe we are probably one of the better defenses in the Southern conference. Our schedule has been very favorable so far. Two conference home games, and the road game being at VMI. If we are going to show we are serious, we are going to have to win these upcoming road games. I hope some of the players in this league are taking ETSU as seriously as some of the fans. It’s just nice to have football gentleman.I will give ETSU credit on defense, just from casual observation:

1) as I said before, they held 3 straight teams below 30. Big improvement.

2) though it's unclear how good Furman is right now, both VMI and Chattanooga are improved this year on offense.

3) They made Chattanooga look just as good (bad) as they did last year. Turnovers may be a contributor to that, but still

4) Furman may be good on offense but they aren't the beast they were. Still, ETSU held them below 200 yards rushing which is good

5) they didn't get torched by VMI like Mercer or Western did.

The biggest thing for me is that ETSU seems to play much better at home than they do away. If I remember correctly, they beat Samford at home 2 years ago, got whalloped on the road by them the next year.

They got whalloped by Furman last year away but won at home. They beat Mercer at home last year and gave the citadel and Wofford all they wanted at home. They got stomped by Western on the road.

So my indicator for whether or not ETSU has arrived is whether or not they can win on the road. We haven't seen it yet. Mercer went through this as well.

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[Reign of Terrier]

I stated it earlier in another post - so far, ETSU, UTC, and of course Wofford have looked like the teams playing legitimate defense so far.I don't think we will know how good Wofford's offense is until this Saturday and subsequently how good ETSU's defense is until they play the Citadel in a few weeks.

I'm high on Wofford's defense though, we are much better than last year, probably because we have someone (two people really) running the defense who know what they're doing.

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[wcugrad95]

I should have used bold for the "so far" part I put on the front and on the end. The Bucs still have to play the 5 top scoring offensive teams in the league to date - right now they have played the teams with the 6th, 7th, and 8th placed scoring offenses in their 3 wins. They couldn't have played the last place offense, because that is ETSU.

[PaladinFan]

I don't think we will know how good Wofford's offense is until this Saturday and subsequently how good ETSU's defense is until they play the Citadel in a few weeks.

I'm high on Wofford's defense though, we are much better than last year, probably because we have someone (two people really) running the defense who know what they're doing.

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I don't think that's particularly surprising, though. I think most of us expected Wofford's defense to be pretty solid with the talent they had returning. They have 15 Srs/Jrs on their defensive two-deep. Conklin inherited a lot of veteran players on that side of the ball.

[PaladinFan]

I will give ETSU credit on defense, just from casual observation:

1) as I said before, they held 3 straight teams below 30. Big improvement.

2) though it's unclear how good Furman is right now, both VMI and Chattanooga are improved this year on offense.

3) They made Chattanooga look just as good (bad) as they did last year. Turnovers may be a contributor to that, but still

4) Furman may be good on offense but they aren't the beast they were. Still, ETSU held them below 200 yards rushing which is good

5) they didn't get torched by VMI like Mercer or Western did.

The biggest thing for me is that ETSU seems to play much better at home than they do away. If I remember correctly, they beat Samford at home 2 years ago, got whalloped on the road by them the next year.

They got whalloped by Furman last year away but won at home. They beat Mercer at home last year and gave the citadel and Wofford all they wanted at home. They got stomped by Western on the road.

So my indicator for whether or not ETSU has arrived is whether or not they can win on the road. We haven't seen it yet. Mercer went through this as well.

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From my observation, ETSU's defense will be good enough to let their offense hang around.

Furman is not the offensive team it was last year, and much of that has to do with graduating two very good interior linemen. The explosiveness is still there, but Furman is struggling to convert short third downs by slamming the ball up the middle like they were often able to do last season.

That was a key factor in the loss to ETSU. Furman's inability to convert third downs in the second half and stay on the field crippled the Paladins late and kept giving the Bucs chance after chance. I think that will improve over the course of the season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Right now, Conklin is basically co-DC, he says he spends about 80% of his time with the defense and he basically lets Nate Woody do what he damn well pleases, only using that remaining 20% to let NW know how he would approach it as a DC.

I like Sheil Wood, but with what we're seeing this year, it's becoming more clear that he wasn't the right guy for the DC job last year. We weren't aggressive enough and our coverage was terrible and it's clear to anyone following the program (with most starters coming back last year!) that the difference wasn't in the athletes.

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[gofurman]

Basically Copying Wcugrad95 w a few notes

1- Wofford 2-0 (3-1 overall)
Currently, and rightfully so, the Terriers appear to be the team to beat.

2- ETSU 3-0 (4-1 overall)
The Bucs could EASILY be 1-2 or even 0-3 in conference. They trailed VMI in the 4th quarter, were down by 21 to Furman in the 2nd half, and had a total of 265 yards yesterday against UTC. Vulnerable but winning. And who ISNT vulnerable ?

3- Chattanooga 2-1 (4-1 overall)
The Mocs appear to have a pretty good defense. questions on offense.

4- Mercer 2-1 (3-2 overall)
Don't look as good with Riley as they did with Riddle, but appear to be a solid team.

5- WCU 1-1 (3-1 overall) and Furman 1-1 (1-3 overall)
Ended up looking like 2 evenly matched teams. Western's offense overall is better, neither team looks great on defense.
Furman desperately needs two things - better interior push by the OL to get Dirks going on the fullback runs. Better freakin' pass coverage !!! FU has a strong pass rush and sacked the most elusive QB in the SoCon Adams - 4 times! And that with Western having FIVE SENIORS on the OL and Adams being the most elusive QB anyone will see. If that's any QB but Adams that 6 or 7 sacks easy. If FU had a little more interior push at the Center/OG we could convert a few more 3rd downs and make these games a little less interesting. Lol. A few good third and 2 conversions at ETSU and FU is undefeated in the SoCon

Western needs an overall D but has the best QB in the conference who can make a play out of nothing. FU had defenders hanging on him and he was halfway down and he would throw a freakin completion for 15 yards.

7- Citadel 1-2 (1-3 overall)
They didn't look good against a dynamic offense/QB yesterday losing 44-27 to Towson. They have played well against 3 SoCon teams, but lost 2 of the games. One more conference loss and they are out of the playoff picture.

8- Samford 0-2 (1-4 overall)
By far the most shocking, the Bulldogs have not played well since putting the scare into the highly over-rated FSU Seminoles. Clearly one of the most talented teams, they have to win out and hope to win the SoCon for a shot at the playoffs. The Bulldogs are going to play desperate, at least until they get their next loss.

9- VMI 0-4 (0-5)
Already put in my earlier post. The Keydets are closer to not being in the cellar than they have been in a long time. After getting run off the field by Wofford, they had an opportunity to beat ETSU (lead in the 4th quarter). They are SOO CLOSE to winning - lost 52-50 to Western. Again, we keep score for a reason and they are 0-4 in the SoCon but could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1. *** very impressed that VMI is even competitive since they were bad last year and lost several good players to transfer I think

-----------
just like w Towson v Citadel or Elon killing my Paladins (and FU could be 2-0 within the SoCon) ... I just don't think the SoCon is that good this year unfortunately

[PaladinFan]

Right now, Conklin is basically co-DC, he says he spends about 80% of his time with the defense and he basically lets Nate Woody do what he damn well pleases, only using that remaining 20% to let NW know how he would approach it as a DC.

I like Sheil Wood, but with what we're seeing this year, it's becoming more clear that he wasn't the right guy for the DC job last year. We weren't aggressive enough and our coverage was terrible and it's clear to anyone following the program (with most starters coming back last year!) that the difference wasn't in the athletes.

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Not to contest your knowledge of Wofford football, but Nate Woody coaches at Georgia Tech, not Wofford.

I assume you mean Wade Lang.

[PaladinFan]

I hope WCU puts together a highlight of Tyrie Adams from Saturday. That was arguably the best individual effort I've seen from an FCS QB against Furman in years.

One, he was just impressive. Good throws, good runs. He also battled. He took a bunch of hits from Furman defenders during the game and kept getting up. Glad that game is behind us.

[longtimemocfan]

Our defense is pretty good. Offensively more questions than answers last week. Game management was awful, some of the play calling at the end of the game were head scratchers. Do agree as a whole that the conference is down. Samford and The Citadel played pretty good but not enough to get a win.

1.) Wofford - Clear #1

2.) ETSU

3.) Chattanooga

4.) The Citadel

5.) Mercer

6.) Samford- Actually played good defense.

7.) Furman

8.) WCU

9.) VMI




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[tenNesseeCat]

POWER:

1) Wofford
2) East Tennessee State
3) Chattanooga
4) Mercer
5) Furman
6) Western Carolina
7) The Citadel
8) Samford
9) VMI

PICKS:

Western Carolina @ Samford
Wofford @ Chattanooga
Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU

[Reign of Terrier]

Not to contest your knowledge of Wofford football, but Nate Woody coaches at Georgia Tech, not Wofford.

I assume you mean Wade Lang.Always got them confused...even when one left like 5 years ago

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[PaladinFan]

Pretty funny "photo of the game" as the WCU mascot watches Devin Wynn's late haymaker.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046227960825606144

[Mocs123]

1.) Wofford - here till someone knocks them off - hopefully this week.
2.) ETSU - Maybe not quite good enough for #2 but they keep winning so they get the spot.
3.) Chattanooga - OL needs to improve to get back in the fight
4.) Mercer- Still can get 9 D1 wins
5.) Western Carolina - needs to find a D, but O is high powered
6.) Furman - tough stretch of games after the bye
6.) The Citadel - barely hanging on to playoff hopes - they miss not having the Chuck South game.
8.) Samford - Yes they are better than this (a lot better) but this is where their record forces me to place them.
9.) VMI - VMI has found an offense. Is Uldecki(sp) the new Al Cobb?


Picks:

Chattanooga over Wofford (heart pick)
ETSU over Garner Webb
Western at Samford could go either way and should break the scoreboard. I think Samford has some fight left and pulls an “upset” at home.

[FUBeAR]

Don’t need to watch all games to rank ‘em this week...

PowerPoll

1.) Wofford - Returned to SparkleCity safely from last week’s Just-for-Fun Field Trip to NC. Chatt’s stumble in Johnson City, along with the bellhops’ failure in CrabTown & Sammy’s ongoing funk forcing their failure in Cobb County, takes a bit of National luster off the PorchYappers matchup this week. If they beat the angry BirdSnakes this week, they solidify this spot pretty well. If not...SoCon is WIDE-A OPEN.

2.) ETSU - GREAT win over Chatt vaults the HilltopSwashBucklers to this lofty spot. Trap game this week with all the distractions of Homecoming. But Gardner-Webb is ATROCIOUS. 5 TOUGH SoCon games follow, with 3 of those away from their MountainMarina. They haven’t buckled their swashes particularly well in foreign ports. We’ll see if they can keep their jibs set for a Championship/Playoff run.

3.) Chattanooga - I haven’t watched them get upset by ETSU yet. Surprised me. Off game or not as good as I thought? Dunno. Beat Woffy...and I think we’ll know.

4.) The Citadel - 1st you pull some late game heroics enabling Mercer to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...while simultaneously injuring the QB that I believe could have taken the Bears on a nice run this season. Then you go up NORTH, up to Yankee-land and provide justification for everyone who says the CAA is better than the SoCon. I’m pretty mad at you right now, but this is where you land this week...for now.

5.) Mercer - Darn near tried to take a game that was well in control and find a way to lose it...again! On the other hand, nice job with the running game and I saw what you did to fix that scheme issue that had been allowing those Free Runners. Study hard. Ivy League Level Exam in 2 weeks. Bears are the only hope left (before the Playoffs) to garner some measure of national respect for the SoCon. If Mercer beats Yale, that could be the difference in getting a 2nd, possibly a 3rd SoCon Team in the Playoffs.

6.) Furman - Solid win over a Team that was receiving votes in multiple national polls, but not dominant enough to move you higher than this...yet.

7.) Samford - Remember playing against Shorter’s Defense in Game 1. Might want to pull out that video. It will help you prepare for this week. Mad at you other Bulldogs too, BTW. Forced me to move Kennesaw into my Top 10 and no help at all for SoCon getting more Playoff Teams.

8.) WCU - 3 Phases to the game of Football. Winning only 1 of those, and that ‘win’ not by all that much, while losing the other 2 quite badly, against a legitimately competitive Team, will result in “L’s” and a #8 PowerPoll Ranking.

9.) VMI - Great Effort Keydets. Keep the WILL. Some tough ones ahead, but so is Tusculum. You’ll get that one...and maybe 1 or 2 surprises!


PICKS

WCU @ Samford - Samford, wisely, completely abandons trying to run the ball and Devlin Hodges throws for over 1,000 yards and 11 TD’s. Tyrie Adams, suffering severe body soreness from the beating that Furman gave him, only runs for 250 and only throws for 500. Bulldogs win 77-51

Wofford @ Chattanooga - Wofford hasn’t played a legit FCS game since week 1. Mocs capitalize, while AnkleBiters calibrate, and the TrainBirds take an early lead...and hang on to win it, 24-21.

Gardner-Webb @ ETSU - As bad as G-W is, the CaptainJackSparrows still win, but it’s close and UGLY. 13-6.

[tenNesseeCat]

Pretty funny "photo of the game" as the WCU mascot watches Devin Wynn's late haymaker.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046227960825606144

That hurts to look at...but it is pretty funny...bad grammar

[wcugrad95]

I didn't see it - I was doing the same thing "Paws" was doing after we missed the tackle at (or actually a little behind) the line of scrimmage. As soon as I saw him with a head of steam going by the first defender, I knew it was big-time trouble!

[PaladinFan]

I didn't see it - I was doing the same thing "Paws" was doing after we missed the tackle at (or actually a little behind) the line of scrimmage. As soon as I saw him with a head of steam going by the first defender, I knew it was big-time trouble!

If WCU's safety needs to find his jock strap, it is somewhere about the 50 yard line in Paladin Stadium.

Does it count as a missed tackle if you don't touch the man?

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046143688764616704

[wcugrad95]

Looks like a defender who comes up not under control and tries to arm tackle a guy more than some big-time juke. The Furman guy catches it and just runs straight up the field. We have seen a lot of that with WCU's defense, and that is why I said I knew it was trouble, because I expected us to miss another tackle downfield (which we did).

[tenNesseeCat]

It was a split second away from a sack or errant incomplete pass. the S should have just headed on up field to the RB. Trying to point out who others needed to pick up put him in a bad position. Had he followed his first instinct, it coulda been a pick 6.

[PaladinNation]

I will echo another poster Furman is a Wildcard… it's been a larger re-build than I thought.

Hendrix has very high aspirations, and by the player's comments after the game they get. Hendrix will get this turned around with you or without you. The WCU game was the best so far for an o-line group of four sophomores and one junior, I have no doubt they will continue to improve each week.

I've also been surprised at how slow Furman has been able to build the offensive playbook under Quarles if Saturday is the offensive direction… I'm sold.

As Paladin Fan noted with some of the highlights… Furman's future is bright; gifted skill position players and several defensive players in the front seven.

Saturday was one of the few times, maybe the only one where Furman has players as fast or faster than Western at the matchup level. Adrain Hope at DE, Bell at WR and KR, Wynn, Morehead, and Watkins at tailback. Interesting that Furman got that a high a level of an offensive performance with very little contribution from Gordon and Burnette.

I expect a chess match in two weeks against Wofford. Should be a fun game.

[Catamount87]

Let's just go ahead and say it, the majority of the SoCon is playing some ugly defense right now. Historically, has the SoCon collectively been this bad on defense? I can't recall a time in the last 35 years that, across the board except for a couple of teams, that the SoCon has looked this bad defensively. I don't know how this year compares to previous years statistically but it'd be an interesting study.

BTW, here are some interesting 2018 defensive stats.

7 teams are giving up at least 25 points a game, 5 at least 30 a game and 2 at least 40 a game.
5 teams are giving up at least 400 yards a game, 3 at least 470 a game and 1 well over 500 a game
3 teams are giving up at least 200 yards rushing a game
4 teams are giving up at least 250 yards passing a game, 1 is just shy of 250 a game
4 teams are allowing 40% or more conversion on 3rd down, 1 is just shy of 40%
8 teams are allowing 50% or more conversion on 4th down, 5 at least 60% with 1 almost at 60%
6 teams are giving up more than 30 min time of possession

[FUBeAR]

Looks like a defender who comes up not under control and tries to arm tackle a guy more than some big-time juke. The Furman guy catches it and just runs straight up the field. We have seen a lot of that with WCU's defense, and that is why I said I knew it was trouble, because I expected us to miss another tackle downfield (which we did).I’m not going to call it out, but if I’m a WCU Coach (or Fan), I see something else in that clip that would make madder than a wet hornet!

[tenNesseeCat]

I’m not going to call it out, but if I’m a WCU Coach (or Fan), I see something else in that clip that would make madder than a wet hornet!

A LB had about a 30 yard head start on the furman RB, and still let him get to the end zone first. By about 10 yards.

[Reign of Terrier]

Ya know, even if Wofford does have some regression to the mean for the remaining 7 games (which is likely), I think it's still safe to say we have one of the best defenses in the league this year.
Let's just go ahead and say it, the majority of the SoCon is playing some ugly defense right now. Historically, has the SoCon collectively been this bad on defense? I can't recall a time in the last 35 years that, across the board except for a couple of teams, that the SoCon has looked this bad defensively. I don't know how this year compares to previous years statistically but it'd be an interesting study.

BTW, here are some interesting 2018 defensive stats.

7 teams are giving up at least 25 points a game, 5 at least 30 a game and 2 at least 40 a game.
5 teams are giving up at least 400 yards a game, 3 at least 470 a game and 1 well over 500 a game
3 teams are giving up at least 200 yards rushing a game
4 teams are giving up at least 250 yards passing a game, 1 is just shy of 250 a game
4 teams are allowing 40% or more conversion on 3rd down, 1 is just shy of 40%
8 teams are allowing 50% or more conversion on 4th down, 5 at least 60% with 1 almost at 60%
6 teams are giving up more than 30 min time of possession

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[Milktruck74]

I guess I'm having trouble....everybody is going Woffy, ETSU, then Chattanooga at 3....I watched Chattanooga at ETSU Saturday night and saw a middle of the pack SoCon team beat a BAD SoCon Team.....has the conference slid that far? NO WAY the Mocs are the 3rd best team in the conference...or maybe they are the 3rd best team and the other 6 are just plain awful....is this the OVC?

[Catamount87]

Ya know, even if Wofford does have some regression to the mean for the remaining 7 games (which is likely), I think it's still safe to say we have one of the best defenses in the league this year.

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Yes, I think it's safe to say that Wofford has the best defense in the SoCon to date.

Statistically Wofford is:
1 in Scoring Defense - 16.5 pts/gm
1 in Total Defense - 267.54 yards/gm
2 in Rushing Defense - 102 yards/gm
1 in Pass Defense Efficiency - 107.2/gm
1 in Pass Defense - 165.5/gm
1 in Opp 1st downs - 16.5/gm
1 in Opp 3rd down conv. - 26.2% (#8 in 4th conv though - 8 for 11 or 72.7%)
2 in Red Zone Defense - 72.7%

[Catamount87]

I’m not going to call it out, but if I’m a WCU Coach (or Fan), I see something else in that clip that would make madder than a wet hornet!

Oh there's been a lot for a WCU coach and fan to be madder than a wet hornet about this year!

Let's just hope it really is a matter of youth and inexperience. There are 14 freshman, redshirt freshman and sophomores on the defense 2 deep with 4 starting.

[ETSUfan1]

I still feel like Mercer is a good team. I think it’s just Wofford, then everyone else. I kind of agree with milktruck. ETSU feels like they should be middle of the pack, but if no one else is going to step up, we will gladly fill the spot.

[FUBeAR]

I guess I'm having trouble....everybody is going Woffy, ETSU, then Chattanooga at 3....I watched Chattanooga at ETSU Saturday night and saw a middle of the pack SoCon team beat a BAD SoCon Team.....has the conference slid that far? NO WAY the Mocs are the 3rd best team in the conference...or maybe they are the 3rd best team and the other 6 are just plain awful....is this the OVC?IMO, Chatt is sitting at #3 primarily due to their 1 point OT win over The Citadel combined with The Citadel’s subsequent win over Mercer.

And, to be honest, yes, Chatt is getting some lift for their 2 wins over OVC Teams. Those are the SoCon’s best OOC wins, as sad as that is. CIT & Samford had chances this week to, ensure 3 SoCon Teams in the Playoffs, but both sets of SoCon Bulldogs intercoursed the canine in that endeavor. Furman’s prior debacle @ Elon started the ball rolling downhill. IMO, if Mercer doesn’t beat Yale convincingly, OR or if the SoCon runner-up doesn’t pull off a final week FBS upset, then the SoCon is a 1 bid league this year.

All that said, I still think the SoCon is, overall, better this year than in recent years when we had 3 or 4 Teams make the Playoffs. There is just much more parity, and the scheduling/timing/matchups of OOC games has not been favorable. Samford’s early season collapse is also driving down the external impression of the SoCon. Now, if they had come to Cobb County and whipped the Owls but good, that would have been greatly mitigated.

[wcugrad95]

I guess I'm having trouble....everybody is going Woffy, ETSU, then Chattanooga at 3....I watched Chattanooga at ETSU Saturday night and saw a middle of the pack SoCon team beat a BAD SoCon Team.....has the conference slid that far? NO WAY the Mocs are the 3rd best team in the conference...or maybe they are the 3rd best team and the other 6 are just plain awful....is this the OVC?

I think it is most people simply have a hard time putting teams with 4 wins and only 1 loss behind teams with 1 or 2 wins (unless you are WCU who drops to 8th immediately). I expect some significant shifts, and I agree - I think both ETSU and Chattanooga have offensive questions. Now more than before it seems like Wofford at #1, VMI at #9 until they can get at least one SoCon win, and then no way to really know the difference in the rest of the teams until we see them all play each other. ETSU and Chatty ***may be*** top-half teams, but they are going to have to prove it against what is still the tougher part of their schedule. Just like we all are.

[FUGameBreaker]

I feel like anybody can beat anybody, put Woff at the top and the rest is just who shows up on anygivensaturday

Combined record of FU's 4 opponents is 15-3 (also Colgate who was canceled is 4-0 lol)

Paladins were putting a whooping on ETSU and WCU in the second half and then the wheels came off, chocked it at ETSU and held on vs WCU, my guess is having so much inconsistent youth played a big part in allowing those other teams to come storming back

Furman can win out with Harris Roberts at QB, but only if the defense starts playing much much better, which I am not sure we will considering all the youth we have out there

2 weeks prep for Woff at home is a good thing

[Catamount87]

Just did some quick checking on the Furman and Samford 2 deep. Both have 10 RS-F, Fr, RS-So and So on their two deeps. Not sure about anyone else though.

Bottom line, WCU, Furman and Samford have to play A LOT better defense. All three are bunched up together statistically in the SoCon and if each of us wants to be a playoff team, defensive plays has to improve dramatically.

[FUBeAR]

Oh there's been a lot for a WCU coach and fan to be madder than a wet hornet about this year!

Let's just hope it really is a matter of youth and inexperience. There are 14 freshman, redshirt freshman and sophomores on the defense 2 deep with 4 starting.I’ve heard good Football Coaches say that the 1 thing, as a Player, that you always have 100% control over is your own effort.

Effort is independent of youth, experience, size, speed, and even of talent.

In my own Coaching experience, I always graded every one of my Players on every play of every game (and full scrimmage). If there was a lack of 100% effort from snap to ‘echo of the whistle,’ they got a “0” on that play. I didn’t care if they pancaked their assigned man at the start of the play (which would give them a “4” on a 4.0 scale), if I saw them loafing in any part of any play, they were getting a “0” and they knew it. All about accountability to their Teammates. They will play the way they are Coached to play and if you inspect (i.e., grade) what you expect, you will get what you expect. Same ‘program’ with mental errors. If you don’t know WHAT to do, there’s almost no chance that you will get it done. More times than not, IF you can get kids to do WHAT they are supposed to do with 100% effort, they are going to have a chance to ‘win’ that play...even against a Player/Team with superior Talent. BTW, “0’s” always earned Players some ‘reminder activities’ the following week and their ‘memories’ would always get better and better while I was Coaching ‘em.

Lack of effort....NO SIR...no Team can win with that.

Note: None of this stuff came from the ‘mind of FUBeAR.’ This is all from ‘studying’ at the feet of Robbie Caldwell, current OL Coach at Clemson & Dick Sheridan, Former Furman & NC State Head Coach & an NCAA Coach of the Year. There may be other ways. But I KNOW this way wins Championships.

[FUGameBreaker]

Just did some quick checking on the Furman and Samford 2 deep. Both have 10 RS-F, Fr, RS-So and So on their two deeps. Not sure about anyone else though.

Bottom line, WCU, Furman and Samford have to play A LOT better defense. All three are bunched up together statistically in the SoCon and if each of us wants to be a playoff team, defensive plays has to improve dramatically.


FU has 11 on defense and 15 on offense (not to mention the rest is mostly juniors)
http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2018-19/2018_Furman_Game_Notes_-_Stats.pdf

We will just about be fielding the exact same team next year, we will need huge growth out of FR QB Grainger or to find an FBS transfer to step in however

[Catamount87]

I’ve heard good Football Coaches say that the 1 thing, as a Player, that you always have 100% control over is your own effort.

Effort is independent of youth, experience, size, speed, and even of talent.

In my own Coaching experience, I always graded every one of my Players on every play of every game (and full scrimmage). If there was a lack of 100% effort from snap to ‘echo of the whistle,’ they got a “0” on that play. I didn’t care if they pancaked their assigned man at the start of the play (which would give them a “4” on a 4.0 scale), if I saw them loafing in any part of any play, they were getting a “0” and they knew it. All about accountability to their Teammates. They will play the way they are Coached to play and if you inspect (i.e., grade) what you expect, you will get what you expect. Same ‘program’ with mental errors. If you don’t know WHAT to do, there’s almost no chance that you will get it done. More times than not, IF you can get kids to do WHAT they are supposed to do with 100% effort, they are going to have a chance to ‘win’ that play...even against a Player/Team with superior Talent. BTW, “0’s” always earned Players some ‘reminder activities’ the following week and their ‘memories’ would always get better and better while I was Coaching ‘em.

Lack of effort....NO SIR...no Team can win with that.

Note: None of this stuff came from the ‘mind of FUBeAR.’ This is all from ‘studying’ at the feet of Robbie Caldwell, current OL Coach at Clemson & Dick Sheridan, Former Furman & NC State Head Coach & an NCAA Coach of the Year. There may be other ways. But I KNOW this way wins Championships.

AMEN and Preach it brother, Preach it!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnIaqAsnSxU

[Reign of Terrier]

Yes, I think it's safe to say that Wofford has the best defense in the SoCon to date.

Statistically Wofford is:

1 in Opp 3rd down conv. - 26.2% (#8 in 4th conv though - 8 for 11 or 72.7%)

In our defense, I'm pretty sure no other team has had that many 4th downs to defend

I still feel like Mercer is a good team. I think it’s just Wofford, then everyone else. I kind of agree with milktruck. ETSU feels like they should be middle of the pack, but if no one else is going to step up, we will gladly fill the spot.

Agreed


IMO, Chatt is sitting at #3 primarily due to their 1 point OT win over The Citadel combined with The Citadel’s subsequent win over Mercer.

And, to be honest, yes, Chatt is getting some lift for their 2 wins over OVC Teams. Those are the SoCon’s best OOC wins, as sad as that is. CIT & Samford had chances this week to, ensure 3 SoCon Teams in the Playoffs, but both sets of SoCon Bulldogs intercoursed the canine in that endeavor. Furman’s prior debacle @ Elon started the ball rolling downhill. IMO, if Mercer doesn’t beat Yale convincingly, OR or if the SoCon runner-up doesn’t pull off a final week FBS upset, then the SoCon is a 1 bid league this year.

All that said, I still think the SoCon is, overall, better this year than in recent years when we had 3 or 4 Teams make the Playoffs. There is just much more parity, and the scheduling/timing/matchups of OOC games has not been favorable. Samford’s early season collapse is also driving down the external impression of the SoCon. Now, if they had come to Cobb County and whipped the Owls but good, that would have been greatly mitigated.

1) Chatt did noticeably better against those OVC teams. that signals improvement, but there's still a long way to go.
2) I still don't have a good read of the Citadel other than offense good, defense bad.
3) Mercer just has to beat Yale. An 8-3 (or better) Mercer makes the playoffs
4) Samford's collapse is what has hurt the socon the most this year.

[wcugrad95]

YT - VMI went for it on 4th down 10 TIMES in the game against WCU. Then tried it 7 against Mercer. So yes - other teams have seen more 4th down tries. WCU saw 2 more against Furman, so we have seen 12 in the past 2 weeks.

[FUBeAR]

YT - VMI went for it on 4th down 10 TIMES in the game against WCU. Then tried it 7 against Mercer. So yes - other teams have seen more 4th down tries. WCU saw 2 more against Furman, so we have seen 12 in the past 2 weeks.19 4th down attempts against Mercer.

MEMPH - 2 of 2 =100%
JaxU - 1 of 2 = 50%
SAM - 2 of 3 = 67%
CIT - 4 of 5 = 80%
VMI - 3 of 7 = 42.8%

12 of 19 = 63.1%

4th down conversions made & not made were, IMO, the sole difference in the game between Mercer & Furman last season. Despite the flashy TD catch by Mercer and the flashy KOR for a TD by CIT in the last minute of the game, those 4 4th down conversions by CIT may have been the primary difference in the CIT@MER game this year.

On FUBeAR’s Team, we are going to treat 4th down/2 pt. conversions & 4th down/2 pt D just like a Special Team and we are going to rep our plans until we can flawlessly execute & WIN that aspect of games. Those are SPECIAL & CRITICAL plays and so often seem to be so haphazardly executed.

[ElCid]

Just did some quick checking on the Furman and Samford 2 deep. Both have 10 RS-F, Fr, RS-So and So on their two deeps. Not sure about anyone else though.

Bottom line, WCU, Furman and Samford have to play A LOT better defense. All three are bunched up together statistically in the SoCon and if each of us wants to be a playoff team, defensive plays has to improve dramatically.


FYI I looked at only the 2 deep of the O and D (44) not the occasional "OR" with a three deep listed, nor special teams. When there was 3 listed I took the first two. All from this past weeks notes. I don't see any glaring inconsistencies with how teams have done on the field as a result of their experience...except maybe Samford.

10 on Furman? I just looked at Furman's game notes from last week and for the classes you list it was 15 on O and 12 on D....?

On Samford's I only got 9 and 9 from their KSU game notes.

The Citadel has 12 on O and 10 on D.

I saw that WCU has 9 and 14, O and D...pretty young on D

VMI has 16 on O and 16 on D...WOW.

Mercer had 12 on O and 9 on D.

UTC had 9 on O and 8 on D.

ETSU, which is still a bit not normal probably due to their restart had 6 on O and 9 on D.

Wofford lists 11 on O and 7 on D...this was from upcoming as they already took down last weeks.


So for O the order is

ETSU-6
UTC-9
WCU-9
Samford-9
Wofford-11
The Citadel-12
Mercer-12
Furman-15
VMI-16

For D the order is

Wofford-7
UTC-8
ETSU-9
Samford-9
Mercer-9
The Citadel-10
Furman-12
WCU-14
VMI-16

[FUBeAR]

Just did some quick checking on the Furman and Samford 2 deep. Both have 10 RS-F, Fr, RS-So and So on their two deeps. Not sure about anyone else though.

Bottom line, WCU, Furman and Samford have to play A LOT better defense. All three are bunched up together statistically in the SoCon and if each of us wants to be a playoff team, defensive plays has to improve dramatically.R-SO’s are in their 3rd season in the Program. If we’re just going by class year (which is really the only feasible way to deal with the data), then should we be counting R-SO’s as “young?” Often, at Wofford & VMI, and occasionally other schools, those guys don’t come back for that 5th year, so R-SO’s could be in their next-to-last season. They are also eligible for the NFL draft after ‘this’ season, if I’m not mistaken. “Youth,” to me is the number of FR & R-FR in the 2-Deep and we could add SO’s since they may have played sparingly in their FR year and have only had 1 prior year in the Program.

BTW - ElCid - you can’t ‘trust’ the posted years for Samford (at all), nor for Woffy & your CIT Team either. I had to go back & compare 4 years of Rosters to get their ACTUAL year ‘right’ in the data I use for my “Experience Ratings”

[ElCid]

19 4th down attempts against Mercer.

MEMPH - 2 of 2 =100%
JaxU - 1 of 2 = 50%
SAM - 2 of 3 = 67%
CIT - 4 of 5 = 80%
VMI - 3 of 7 = 42.8%

12 of 19 = 63.1%

4th down conversions made & not made were, IMO, the sole difference in the game between Mercer & Furman last season. Despite the flashy TD catch by Mercer and the flashy KOR for a TD by CIT in the last minute of the game, those 4 4th down conversions by CIT may have been the primary difference in the CIT@MER game this year.

On FUBeAR’s Team, we are going to treat 4th down/2 pt. conversions & 4th down/2 pt D just like a Special Team and we are going to rep our plans until we can flawlessly execute & WIN that aspect of games. Those are SPECIAL & CRITICAL plays and so often seem to be so haphazardly executed.


We are 15 for 22 (68.2) on the year for 4th downs, but that includes a couple late game desperate long yarders this past week that where we would not normally go for it. We were 4/7 this past week and we went for it inside our own 40 and even 30 at least once. I like it. Only didn't make it once besides 2 late game 4/9 tries. Made a 4/1, 4/1, 4/4, and a 4/10. Didn't make a 4/2, 4/9, and 4/9. I really like we are going for it more. We had to try and keep the ball away from that Flacco freak. His is good.

And I thought we went for it a lot. One team is beating us in 4th down tries..........VMI, 12/24.

[ElCid]

R-SO’s are in their 3rd season in the Program. If we’re just going by class year (which is really the only feasible way to deal with the data), then should we be counting R-SO’s as “young?” Often, at Wofford & VMI, and occasionally other schools, those guys don’t come back for that 5th year, so R-SO’s could be in their next-to-last season. They are also eligible for the NFL draft after ‘this’ season, if I’m not mistaken. “Youth,” to me is the number of FR & R-FR in the 2-Deep and we could add SO’s since they may have played sparingly in their FR year and have only had 1 prior year in the Program.

BTW - ElCid - you can’t ‘trust’ the posted years for Samford (at all), nor for Woffy & your CIT Team either. I had to go back & compare 4 years of Rosters to get their ACTUAL year ‘right’ in the data I use for my “Experience Ratings”


Yeah, agree on the year thing in regard to R-So. I usually look mainly at F, R-Fr and maybe So. to see if there is some youth. As far as rosters go, that's a lot of work. Are they just sloppy?

[FUBeAR]

Yeah, agree on the year thing in regard to R-So. I usually look mainly at F, R-Fr and maybe So. to see if there is some youth. As far as rosters go, that's a lot of work. Are they just sloppy?

Nah...I think it’s just ‘policy’ - Samford doesn’t show RS’s at all. Woffy & CIT just show R-FR & then drop the “R” designation in subsequent years.

Mercer & ETSU have been a bit ‘sloppy’ with theirs, but I’ll still give them a start up pass. Chatt, with so many Transfers, isn’t always accurate. Heck, in some cases, they may not even know. And, I think FU had a recent ‘policy’ change - from the same dropping of the “R” thing that CIT & Woffy do to showing the “R” throughout.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gofurman]

FYI I looked at only the 2 deep of the O and D (44) not the occasional "OR" with a three deep listed, nor special teams. When there was 3 listed I took the first two. All from this past weeks notes. I don't see any glaring inconsistencies with how teams have done on the field as a result of their experience...except maybe Samford.

10 on Furman? I just looked at Furman's game notes from last week and for the classes you list it was 15 on O and 12 on D....?

On Samford's I only got 9 and 9 from their KSU game notes.

The Citadel has 12 on O and 10 on D.

I saw that WCU has 9 and 14, O and D...pretty young on D

VMI has 16 on O and 16 on D...WOW.

Mercer had 12 on O and 9 on D.

UTC had 9 on O and 8 on D.

ETSU, which is still a bit not normal probably due to their restart had 6 on O and 9 on D.

Wofford lists 11 on O and 7 on D...this was from upcoming as they already took down last weeks.


So for O the order is

ETSU-6
UTC-9
WCU-9
Samford-9
Wofford-11
The Citadel-12
Mercer-12
Furman-15
VMI-16

For D the order is

Wofford-7
UTC-8
ETSU-9
Samford-9
Mercer-9
The Citadel-10
Furman-12
WCU-14
VMI-16

In total Furman and VMI are the youngest teams in the league. I look more at STARTERS. Furman only starts TWO seniors on offense. Two. And 3 or 4 on defense.

So so as far as the guys that play 80% of the plays I think Furman is probably the youngest team in the SoCon

thats why (10 game season w Colgate game cancelled) if we go 3-7 or 4-6... (And really discount Clemson so that's 3-6 or 4-5 ). ....... I think Furman will be a good winning team next year in 2019 ... Especially since Hendrix specialty is OL and all TEN of our OL return next year.. That's sick how young we are on OL. Four sophomores and one junior start and no seniors on the two deep OL anywhere. We could hopefully have our OL in sync next year w 4 jurors and 1 senior starting

anyway, being that young... If we are even competitive this year I am happy. And we have been so far. Close loss at ETSU. Close win over WCU

[Reign of Terrier]

[/B]

In total Furman and VMI are the youngest teams in the league. I look more at STARTERS. Furman only starts TWO seniors on offense. Two. And 3 or 4 on defense.

So so as far as the guys that play 80% of the plays I think Furman is probably the youngest team in the SoCon

thats why (10 game season w Colgate game cancelled) if we go 3-7 or 4-6... (And really discount Clemson so that's 3-6 or 4-5 ). ....... I think Furman will be a good winning team next year in 2019 ... Especially since Hendrix specialty is OL and all TEN of our OL return next year.. That's sick how young we are on OL. Four sophomores and one junior start and no seniors on the two deep OL anywhere. We could hopefully have our OL in sync next year w 4 jurors and 1 senior starting

anyway, being that young... If we are even competitive this year I am happy. And we have been so far. Close loss at ETSU. Close win over WCUFWIW, Wofford only has 2 seniors (in terms of eligibility) on our offensive two deep.

Thanks to injuries on defense, especially linebacker, the only question mark going into next season is the secondary, but even then we have developed some depth.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

YT - VMI went for it on 4th down 10 TIMES in the game against WCU. Then tried it 7 against Mercer. So yes - other teams have seen more 4th down tries. WCU saw 2 more against Furman, so we have seen 12 in the past 2 weeks.

This went a bit under the radar, but Clay Hendrix sent a message to his team going for it on fourth down from Furman's 18 yard line.

[PaladinFan]

Musings about changes to the Furman offense. Under George Quarles, Furman has gotten away from pounding the fullbacks, which was their MO much of last year. I think some of that has to do with uncertainty on the interior offensive line. The game against WCU showed a lot more pitch option than we've seen Furman run in the past as well.

Variations on a theme:

First, a three back set, pitch option where Roberts keeps around the end. I've seen Roberts do this a few times. He's not as shifty as Blazejowski, but at 6'4 210, you aren't going to bring him down with arm tackles. With his size, he can cover a lot of ground quickly.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046104835702050816

Similar look, but this time a pitch to TB Darius Morehead, who was lined up as a slot WR. Morehead hits the edge and is gone.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046110403401568256

Late in the game, Furman again runs similar action, but is looking for the home run ball. This is the Paladins' deadly load option pass that they just hammered teams with last year. If you ignore the missed tackle and bad angles after the catch, WCU plays it pretty well - single high safety eliminates the deep ball.

I think this exhibits why Harris Roberts is the right guy for Furman now. Stood in there, took a hit, found the outlet pass, lead his receiver to get a running start and got it to him in space.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046143688764616704


For Furman, the consistency still isn't there, but there are encouraging signs. In terms of overall team speed, this is as fast and quick a group on offense as I've seen probably since Bratton/West/Carter in the mid-2000s. The three tailbacks (Morehead, Wynn, and Watkins) can really scoot, Gordon and Bell are incredibly quick WRs, and Roberts, when he gets moving, can cover some ground in a hurry.

I think this is the type of game Furman needs to play. Less focused on the drubbing of the fullback, and more focused on getting the balls to their speed guys in space.

[gofurman]

Musings about changes to the Furman offense. Under George Quarles, Furman has gotten away from pounding the fullbacks, which was their MO much of last year. I think some of that has to do with uncertainty on the interior offensive line. The game against WCU showed a lot more pitch option than we've seen Furman run in the past as well.

Variations on a theme:

First, a three back set, pitch option where Roberts keeps around the end. I've seen Roberts do this a few times. He's not as shifty as Blazejowski, but at 6'4 210, you aren't going to bring him down with arm tackles. With his size, he can cover a lot of ground quickly.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046104835702050816

Similar look, but this time a pitch to TB Darius Morehead, who was lined up as a slot WR. Morehead hits the edge and is gone.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046110403401568256

Late in the game, Furman again runs similar action, but is looking for the home run ball. This is the Paladins' deadly load option pass that they just hammered teams with last year. If you ignore the missed tackle and bad angles after the catch, WCU plays it pretty well - single high safety eliminates the deep ball.

I think this exhibits why Harris Roberts is the right guy for Furman now. Stood in there, took a hit, found the outlet pass, lead his receiver to get a running start and got it to him in space.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1046143688764616704


For Furman, the consistency still isn't there, but there are encouraging signs. In terms of overall team speed, this is as fast and quick a group on offense as I've seen probably since Bratton/West/Carter in the mid-2000s. The three tailbacks (Morehead, Wynn, and Watkins) can really scoot, Gordon and Bell are incredibly quick WRs, and Roberts, when he gets moving, can cover some ground in a hurry.

I think this is the type of game Furman needs to play. Less focused on the drubbing of the fullback, and more focused on getting the balls to their speed guys in space.


We still need to develop the interior OL strength though - always good when the defense has to respect every play on the field. Right now, I think the opposing D have to respect our outside speed more than last year but our interior FB Dive less than last year. If Dirks behind the C/Guard was as deadly as last year it would put tremendous pressure on a defense. At this point if I was the D coordinator vs Furman I would spread my guys to the outside and leave one less guy worried about the FU fullback dive until FU proves they can get 3 yards on with Dirks consistently

[Catamount87]

[/B]

In total Furman and VMI are the youngest teams in the league. I look more at STARTERS. Furman only starts TWO seniors on offense. Two. And 3 or 4 on defense.

So so as far as the guys that play 80% of the plays I think Furman is probably the youngest team in the SoCon

thats why (10 game season w Colgate game cancelled) if we go 3-7 or 4-6... (And really discount Clemson so that's 3-6 or 4-5 ). ....... I think Furman will be a good winning team next year in 2019 ... Especially since Hendrix specialty is OL and all TEN of our OL return next year.. That's sick how young we are on OL. Four sophomores and one junior start and no seniors on the two deep OL anywhere. We could hopefully have our OL in sync next year w 4 jurors and 1 senior starting

anyway, being that young... If we are even competitive this year I am happy. And we have been so far. Close loss at ETSU. Close win over WCU

So, the question that now comes up is with all this youth, how will these young men respond? How open will they be to coaching, teaching and making the needed effort to improve?

Only time will tell. But if they do respond positively all this does set these defense up to be very good in the future. I wouldn't be surprised with all the youth at VMI that in 2 seasons we'll all be taking them a bit more seriously. We already know they can move the ball and score some serious points. Imagine if they actually had a middle of the SoCon pack defense. Same goes for WCU and Furman too. Tighten up a D just a little and watch the hell out!

[SU DOG]

Wofford @ UTC - Terriers are too strong on the interior, and will win this one.
GWU @ ETSU - Running Bulldogs will suffer their 5th loss in a row.
WCU @ SAM - This could be a basketball type score. Tyrie Adams may have a record day at Seibert Stadium. The bookies have it as a 10.5 point win for the Dogs. Samford still has a slim chance to have a good SoCon season, and will win this one at home. Still, there is no excuse for the waste of talent that we have seen this year. I say that, in spite of sounding disrespectful to our opponents. It is not easy to be a Samford Fan and watch, what I consider, a team playing so far below their potential - it hurts badly.

[kdinva]

.....WCU @ SAM - This could be a basketball type score.....

really, if VMI can hang 50 on WCU..........

[PaladinFan]

So, the question that now comes up is with all this youth, how will these young men respond? How open will they be to coaching, teaching and making the needed effort to improve?

Only time will tell. But if they do respond positively all this does set these defense up to be very good in the future. I wouldn't be surprised with all the youth at VMI that in 2 seasons we'll all be taking them a bit more seriously. We already know they can move the ball and score some serious points. Imagine if they actually had a middle of the SoCon pack defense. Same goes for WCU and Furman too. Tighten up a D just a little and watch the hell out!

Furman's porous play on defense has been surprising. Oddly enough, I expected the defense to be a strong point for the Paladins this season.

Furman's defense has a few more veterans than the offense, but is still comparatively quite young. They have played really well in spurts - ETSU had only 6 points at half time. WCU had 10.

There's an open question why they've struggled in the second half. I imagine part of that is our offense's inability to stay on the field and run the clock. Against WCU, Furman had only 1 drive that took up more than 4 minutes of clock, and several touchdown drives that were under 2 minutes (not even including a kick six). It was sort of the opposite result against ETSU, where we had a bunch of short second half drives because the offense just couldn't stay on the field on third down.

Just for comparison, last year against Mercer each of Furman's four touchdown drives lasted over 4 minutes, and three of the four took 6 minutes plus off the clock.

I think the defense will continue to get better. I think the offense can help that a bit by managing the clock a little more effectively and giving our defense, which by design is a fast paced attacking group, a bit of a breather.

[PaladinFan]

We still need to develop the interior OL strength though - always good when the defense has to respect every play on the field. Right now, I think the opposing D have to respect our outside speed more than last year but our interior FB Dive less than last year. If Dirks behind the C/Guard was as deadly as last year it would put tremendous pressure on a defense. At this point if I was the D coordinator vs Furman I would spread my guys to the outside and leave one less guy worried about the FU fullback dive until FU proves they can get 3 yards on with Dirks consistently

The problem defenses will face is that it will be difficult to keep up with Furman's jackrabbits outside.

Also, the inside run game isn't just limited to Dirks. Furman's offense this year has focused more on the traditional role of the fullback as a lead blocker. They'll run up the gut with the tailbacks, which we almost never saw them do last year.

[gofurman]

The problem defenses will face is that it will be difficult to keep up with Furman's jackrabbits outside.

Also, the inside run game isn't just limited to Dirks. Furman's offense this year has focused more on the traditional role of the fullback as a lead blocker. They'll run up the gut with the tailbacks, which we almost never saw them do last year.

agree with what you say but no denying we are not getting the basic C./G push in the interior OL this year that we saw last year... And that has hurt. Probably coulda won at ETSU if we get two or three first downs (2nd half of that game) which a basic FB dive or interior OL push could possibly have provided. Three more 1st downs in the second half.. late in the second half and we probably win that game. Would have been nice to just line up and watch Dirks move the pile for 3/4 yards like last year. That just doesn't seem to be there right now.

Option / outside runs have been there some - though to be fair.. WCU defense is NOT Elon's defense. We will see how far we have come v Wofford. They have a strong defense as they shut us down in the playoffs last year.

[gofurman]

Furman's porous play on defense has been surprising. Oddly enough, I expected the defense to be a strong point for the Paladins this season.

Furman's defense has a few more veterans than the offense, but is still comparatively quite young. They have played really well in spurts - ETSU had only 6 points at half time. WCU had 10.

There's an open question why they've struggled in the second half. I imagine part of that is our offense's inability to stay on the field and run the clock. Against WCU, Furman had only 1 drive that took up more than 4 minutes of clock, and several touchdown drives that were under 2 minutes (not even including a kick six). It was sort of the opposite result against ETSU, where we had a bunch of short second half drives because the offense just couldn't stay on the field on third down.

Just for comparison, last year against Mercer each of Furman's four touchdown drives lasted over 4 minutes, and three of the four took 6 minutes plus off the clock.

I think the defense will continue to get better. I think the offense can help that a bit by managing the clock a little more effectively and giving our defense, which by design is a fast paced attacking group, a bit of a breather.

I would say our Defense - except LB - is very experienced. Anoor, Weems, Kearse, Okeh are names we know from last year.. Juniors and Seniors. Trapp is a transfer... Reid, Okonya, Tibbs on DL are known quantities. The young group is at LB - McKoy, Hope, etc. but two to our three groups (DBs and DL) are quite experienced.

So I too have been surprised with how poorly our D has played at times - esp pass coverage by talented DBs !!! We don't even turn to look for the ball and are completely lost sometimes.

[FUBeAR]

agree with what you say but no denying we are not getting the basic C./G push in the interior OL this year that we saw last year... And that has hurt. Probably coulda won at ETSU if we get two or three first downs (2nd half of that game) which a basic FB dive or interior OL push could possibly have provided. Three more 1st downs in the second half.. late in the second half and we probably win that game. Would have been nice to just line up and watch Dirks move the pile for 3/4 yards like last year. That just doesn't seem to be there right now.

Option / outside runs have been there some - though to be fair.. WCU defense is NOT Elon's defense. We will see how far we have come v Wofford. They have a strong defense as they shut us down in the playoffs last year.Huge difference in having a Sr. All-American Center & a SO making his 1st Start. I watched the OL in that game play-by-play / man-by-man on the ESPN replay, using the wonderful 10-second REW/FWD that only seems to work on my iPad. Cole Neeley (sp?) improved as the game went on and he’s going to be a fine Center. Both OG’s are solid. Kroeber was a FR All-American, who is a pure technician in there with the size, strength, and athletic ability (grew up with older brothers who were Hoops Players) to be a Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner before he’s done. Just like to see him be a little meaner/play with a little more fire. Sometimes those ‘technician’ types never do though...but they always get their man blocked..which is certainly sufficient. Jordan Harris is also going to be a very good one at the other OG. He already is, actually. He’s a little raw since he hasn’t played much OL, but he DOES play with that fire. Sometimes, in general, it may seem that there is not enough push from the inside guys, when, in fact, the problem is the OT’s (and/or TE’s) are not able to get their men turned out/cut-off on an inside charge. I see this being a big problem for many Teams trying to run the ball. Those tall/long-armed cats may be effective at running DE’s/OLB’s around the QB in PassPro, but when they need to fire out low & hard with their head inside...um...not so much.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford @ UTC - Terriers are too strong on the interior, and will win this one.
GWU @ ETSU - Running Bulldogs will suffer their 5th loss in a row.
WCU @ SAM - This could be a basketball type score. Tyrie Adams may have a record day at Seibert Stadium. The bookies have it as a 10.5 point win for the Dogs. Samford still has a slim chance to have a good SoCon season, and will win this one at home. Still, there is no excuse for the waste of talent that we have seen this year. I say that, in spite of sounding disrespectful to our opponents. It is not easy to be a Samford Fan and watch, what I consider, a team playing so far below their potential - it hurts badly.I don't take offense to what you're saying wrt samford. You guys just have the biggest con man in the FCS as you're coach

No worries, you'll find a way to beat Wofford. That's the only thing consistent about Hatcher

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

I would say our Defense - except LB - is very experienced. Anoor, Weems, Kearse, Okeh are names we know from last year.. Juniors and Seniors. Trapp is a transfer... Reid, Okonya, Tibbs on DL are known quantities. The young group is at LB - McKoy, Hope, etc. but two to our three groups (DBs and DL) are quite experienced.

So I too have been surprised with how poorly our D has played at times - esp pass coverage by talented DBs !!! We don't even turn to look for the ball and are completely lost sometimes.

Good defenses are deep. We have some starters with experience, but they don't play the whole game. Most of our second line are freshman and sophomores (Seabrook, Sochovoka, Stokes, Hope, Owen, Porter, Hodge, Kearse, Clay). A few of the other "experienced" guys are playing new positions (Perryman, Porter, Owen, etc.)

Of course, our least experienced unit (ILB), which has hardly anyone with significant playing time at the position, is the one area on the defense you really would like to have experience. Several of WCU's touchdown passes (namely, the two tosses to the TE) were due to confusion in coverage by our inside linebackers, the most experienced of which is a true sophomore.

Yes, every team has young players. Furman has moved a lot of guys around, plays a lot of young guys, and has very little experience at the keystone inside linebacker (the QB of the defense, if you will) position. A lot of those guys are good fly-to-the-ball types (which is why you saw Furman limit WCU's run game), but are still learning how to operate in coverage.

Also, a couple of WCU's passes had nothing to do with Furman's defense or lack there of. On Tyrie Adams' last TD pass, he was getting dragged to the ground and managed to throw a perfect ball over a leaping Amir Trapp to a covered man who barely managed one toe in the endzone. You can play great defense, and sometimes a guy just beats you.

[FUBeAR]

Good defenses are deep. We have some starters with experience, but they don't play the whole game. Most of our second line are freshman and sophomores (Seabrook, Sochovoka, Stokes, Hope, Owen, Porter, Hodge, Kearse, Clay). A few of the other "experienced" guys are playing new positions (Perryman, Porter, Owen, etc.)

Of course, our least experienced unit (ILB), which has hardly anyone with significant playing time at the position, is the one area on the defense you really would like to have experience. Several of WCU's touchdown passes (namely, the two tosses to the TE) were due to confusion in coverage by our inside linebackers, the most experienced of which is a true sophomore.

Yes, every team has young players. Furman has moved a lot of guys around, plays a lot of young guys, and has very little experience at the keystone inside linebacker (the QB of the defense, if you will) position. A lot of those guys are good fly-to-the-ball types (which is why you saw Furman limit WCU's run game), but are still learning how to operate in coverage.

Also, a couple of WCU's passes had nothing to do with Furman's defense or lack there of. On Tyrie Adams' last TD pass, he was getting dragged to the ground and managed to throw a perfect ball over a leaping Amir Trapp to a covered man who barely managed one toe in the endzone. You can play great defense, and sometimes a guy just beats you.I haven’t watched the Replay, but I think Perryman had, BY FAR, his best game. I’m not an expert in LB play, but I have to be honest that I was wondering about him based on what I observed in the Elon & ETSU games...but from my vantage point on Sat. he was all over the field, hustling like crazy, and THUMPING people. Have to watch the replay to get a sense if he was in ‘the right place’ most of the time, but I know that he was in A LOT of places on Sat.

[Smitty]

really, if VMI can hang 50 on WCU..........

I figure this will be the game that Western keeps Samford to 7 points to really confuse people, then lose to UTC the week after 85-0...

[wcugrad95]

With all the youth talk (and plenty of discussion about WCU's D), the Cats were far from world-beaters last year - and we lost 8 starters from that group (including all 4 LBs and a CB who got drafted by the Patriots). This past week at Furman, EVERY single backup except for Safety was a true Freshman (6 spots) or RS FR (4 spots). We also start 2 true FR and 1 RS FR. And we have injuries to 2 or 3 guys that we expected to give us some playing time.

All that to say I certainly didn't expect our defense to be any better than last years through the first 1/2 of the season. We switched to the 3-4 when Wiley came in as the DC, so we have to get new (or coach existing) guys to fit that. I didn't think the defense played awful in the second half of the Furman game - they gave up the long lateral for a 50 yard TD, and couldn't get the stop we really needed to try and get the ball back at the end. But other than that the Paladins had to work harder than in the first half (which I know isn't saying a ton). At first I thought Furman went ultra-conservative, but going back and looking at the game and the series/plays, it looked like a whole lot of the same plays being called (Furman only threw it 11 times all game).

In the loss, for the most part I saw at least a little more emotion from the Western D (some letdown on the TD because I think they felt like that was the ballgame). I hope they can build on that and we can find a way to eliminate the special teams mistakes and I think Western will be a hard out for most teams. Might lose them all, but I feel we will play better going forward. And I think with more emphasis on defensive recruiting last year (and this year - most early offers have been to defensive guys), and the experience we are getting now, we will become a more than serviceable D to better support our O.

Or maybe I am just an eternal optimist! It is Western - so you kind of have to be xlolx

[gofurman]

Good defenses are deep. We have some starters with experience, but they don't play the whole game. Most of our second line are freshman and sophomores (Seabrook, Sochovoka, Stokes, Hope, Owen, Porter, Hodge, Kearse, Clay). A few of the other "experienced" guys are playing new positions (Perryman, Porter, Owen, etc.)

Of course, our least experienced unit (ILB), which has hardly anyone with significant playing time at the position, is the one area on the defense you really would like to have experience. Several of WCU's touchdown passes (namely, the two tosses to the TE) were due to confusion in coverage by our inside linebackers, the most experienced of which is a true sophomore.

Yes, every team has young players. Furman has moved a lot of guys around, plays a lot of young guys, and has very little experience at the keystone inside linebacker (the QB of the defense, if you will) position. A lot of those guys are good fly-to-the-ball types (which is why you saw Furman limit WCU's run game), but are still learning how to operate in coverage.

Also, a couple of WCU's passes had nothing to do with Furman's defense or lack there of. On Tyrie Adams' last TD pass, he was getting dragged to the ground and managed to throw a perfect ball over a leaping Amir Trapp to a covered man who barely managed one toe in the endzone. You can play great defense, and sometimes a guy just beats you.

True - perfect O beats perfect D. I don't hold that one against us. But some of those passes were to WIDE OPEN receivers .. and wide open doesn't do it justice. Those two to the TE - both similar place on teh field - both for touchdowns... that's just ugly. The really ugly one was the Adams pump fake that had our corner leave his man to come for the pump fake.. only to leave his recvr 25 yards downfield wide open for a TD. I haven' seen us do that in a long time. Also, even the covered passes our DBs often never turned around to try and bat the ball or make a play. We just let them catch it.. and then tackled them. It was horrific pass D.

[PaladinFan]

I haven’t watched the Replay, but I think Perryman had, BY FAR, his best game. I’m not an expert in LB play, but I have to be honest that I was wondering about him based on what I observed in the Elon & ETSU games...but from my vantage point on Sat. he was all over the field, hustling like crazy, and THUMPING people. Have to watch the replay to get a sense if he was in ‘the right place’ most of the time, but I know that he was in A LOT of places on Sat.

I agree with you. I realize the overall numbers are not pretty, but I think Furman's linebackers are making mistakes at full speed.

I also think they will continue to improve. I'm reminded that Elijah McKoy was a CB in high school and, I presume, never played linebacker before last season. Perryman has recently moved inside and is learning the position as well.

Ideally, Furman wants to get back to where it used to be. For instance, Will Bouton was a two time All American MLB for Furman. He led the team in tackles in 2001. That same season, two young guys notched playing time in each of the teams' 15 games - Mike Killian and Cedric Ritter. Those two would then move on to anchor the defense after Bouton graduated. By the time Killian was a senior, another young player, William Freeman, had arrived. Gary Nelson and Andrew Jones followed Freeman.

Unfortunately, Furman, which used to have an embarrassment of riches at linebacker, has struggled to develop depth. We continue to raid our safety depth for more bodies, and would routinely have to poach linebackers to play DE. Do that, and lose a few to attrition or injury, and you end up where we've been for a few years - having a guy start as a freshman and hand off to another guy having to start as a freshman.

[PaladinFan]

With all the youth talk (and plenty of discussion about WCU's D), the Cats were far from world-beaters last year - and we lost 8 starters from that group (including all 4 LBs and a CB who got drafted by the Patriots). This past week at Furman, EVERY single backup except for Safety was a true Freshman (6 spots) or RS FR (4 spots). We also start 2 true FR and 1 RS FR. And we have injuries to 2 or 3 guys that we expected to give us some playing time.

All that to say I certainly didn't expect our defense to be any better than last years through the first 1/2 of the season. We switched to the 3-4 when Wiley came in as the DC, so we have to get new (or coach existing) guys to fit that. I didn't think the defense played awful in the second half of the Furman game - they gave up the long lateral for a 50 yard TD, and couldn't get the stop we really needed to try and get the ball back at the end. But other than that the Paladins had to work harder than in the first half (which I know isn't saying a ton). At first I thought Furman went ultra-conservative, but going back and looking at the game and the series/plays, it looked like a whole lot of the same plays being called (Furman only threw it 11 times all game).

In the loss, for the most part I saw at least a little more emotion from the Western D (some letdown on the TD because I think they felt like that was the ballgame). I hope they can build on that and we can find a way to eliminate the special teams mistakes and I think Western will be a hard out for most teams. Might lose them all, but I feel we will play better going forward. And I think with more emphasis on defensive recruiting last year (and this year - most early offers have been to defensive guys), and the experience we are getting now, we will become a more than serviceable D to better support our O.

Or maybe I am just an eternal optimist! It is Western - so you kind of have to be xlolx

My opinion, but I didn't think WCU looked "out schemed." Often, they seemed to have guys in the right spots, they just got outran a time or two. You might expect that from a young defense that perhaps underestimated the speed of their opponent.

[wcugrad95]

I am not sure that play was perfect O - it was more just a single guy doing something crazy. Adams did it a couple of times Saturday, and he has a highlight film-full of plays the last 2 years where I was saying "just go down" and then watching him somehow spin and turn and twist and get a first down or throw a pass I didn't think was possible.

[PaladinFan]

I figure this will be the game that Western keeps Samford to 7 points to really confuse people, then lose to UTC the week after 85-0...

Interested to see if Samford can figure out a way to beat the playbook that is out there on them. I have not watched every snap, but teams seem like they are starting to drop a lot of guys in coverage against Samford and force the Bulldogs to beat them running the ball, which is not their strong suit.

[PaladinFan]

I am not sure that play was perfect O - it was more just a single guy doing something crazy. Adams did it a couple of times Saturday, and he has a highlight film-full of plays the last 2 years where I was saying "just go down" and then watching him somehow spin and turn and twist and get a first down or throw a pass I didn't think was possible.

Said it earlier, but Adams on Saturday was the closest thing to Armanti Edwards I've seen in the SoCon since he left. Keeping plays alive, spinning out of tackles, strong enough to keep on his feet and keep his throwing arm free.

From Scott Keeler: http://www.furmansportsreport.com/


"We're going to have to find ways to win and be a grinding bunch. We still made some mistakes that hurt us, but my hat's off to that (WCU) quarterback. We got after him and he made some unbelievable plays."

Furman sacked Adams four times and hit him another umpteen times.

[FUBeAR]

Furman sacked Adams four times and hit him another umpteen times.Sure wish we would have ‘converted’ 2 of those umpteen, so that my universally panned projection of 6 would have been realized. Oh well...that umpteen sure made it feel a whole lot closer to 6 than it did to 0.

[wcugrad95]

Plus all those picks you predicted - he almost got to the 3-5 you said xsmiley_wix

[gofurman]

Interested to see if Samford can figure out a way to beat the playbook that is out there on them. I have not watched every snap, but teams seem like they are starting to drop a lot of guys in coverage against Samford and force the Bulldogs to beat them running the ball, which is not their strong suit.

Interesting - Last year in the last FU reg season game (FU v Samford) we dropped a ton of guys into coverage and Sammy said "ok we have 5 OL and you have 3 DL so we are gonna run for 8 yards a pop". Which they did. Quite well... It was a simple numbers game. They were easily blocking our 3 DL (5 OL will do that) and there were nice running lanes for the Sammy RB. We were clearly not thinking they would do that when we entered last years game. Not sure why that is not working for them this year.

[FUBeAR]

Plus all those picks you predicted - he almost got to the 3-5 you said xsmiley_wix
Hmmmm....How do they say it? Oh yeah...

SCOREBOARD!

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/1850gfk2xg4tmgif/original.gif

xbeerchugx

[PaladinFan]

Interesting - Last year in the last FU reg season game (FU v Samford) we dropped a ton of guys into coverage and Sammy said "ok we have 5 OL and you have 3 DL so we are gonna run for 8 yards a pop". Which they did. Quite well... It was a simple numbers game. They were easily blocking our 3 DL (5 OL will do that) and there were nice running lanes for the Sammy RB. We were clearly not thinking they would do that when we entered last years game. Not sure why that is not working for them this year.

Furman gave up net 106 yards rushing to Samford last year (141 gained).

Mercer gave up 124 net to Samford a few weeks ago (132 gained). Samford rushed for 122 against Kennesaw State. So, no, Furman didn't do demonstrably worse than a few other FCS opponents this season who have beaten Samford (UTC did a better job of limiting the rush attack). In fact, Furman did pretty much what everyone else has done.

[FUBeAR]

Furman gave up net 106 yards rushing to Samford last year (141 gained).

Mercer gave up 124 net to Samford a few weeks ago (132 gained). Samford rushed for 122 against Kennesaw State. So, no, Furman didn't do demonstrably worse than a few other FCS opponents this season who have beaten Samford (UTC did a better job of limiting the rush attack). In fact, Furman did pretty much what everyone else has done.back to this topic again...I think it’s why it SEEMED that Samford was running the ball effectively against Furman last year...



Statistics
SAM


4th. Down Conversions
3 of 3



They ran for 2 of these on their 1st scoring drive, including the TD.

Only 2 of their 6 3rd down conversions (of 15 attempts) were runs.

[gofurman]

Furman gave up net 106 yards rushing to Samford last year (141 gained).

Mercer gave up 124 net to Samford a few weeks ago (132 gained). Samford rushed for 122 against Kennesaw State. So, no, Furman didn't do demonstrably worse than a few other FCS opponents this season who have beaten Samford (UTC did a better job of limiting the rush attack). In fact, Furman did pretty much what everyone else has done.

my mistake. I just recall one particular drive that seemed that was the case. Don't have time to go back for all the numbers. Appreciate you correcting me. I do.

Unfortunately, they beat us (26-20?) despite us running that scheme. Though I think Sammy was better last year

[gofurman]

back to this topic again...I think it’s why it SEEMED that Samford was running the ball effectively against Furman last year...



Statistics
SAM


4th. Down Conversions
3 of 3



They ran for 2 of these on their 1st scoring drive, including the TD.

Only 2 of their 6 3rd down conversions (of 15 attempts) were runs.

That sounds like what I am remembering. Thanks to PaladinFan and Bear for setting me straight. I knew there was some point at which I was frustrated thinking "what the heck is this stuff? Sammy running on us?"

[woffordgrad94]

Wow, the SoCon is kind of a mess. Not a lot of defense is being played by a number of teams and the conference as a whole is simply not very good right now. Samford, who was supposed to win the conference and represent it very well, has been a major disappointment. Furman has been disappointing too, though they finally got off the snide yesterday. One positive has been the emergence of ETSU.

1. Wofford: some have valid questions about the quality of the Terrier wins. But the Terriers have one of the conference’s best defenses and defense wins games.
2. ETSU: no doubt the surprise of the conference. Chatty was a very nice win for this program.
3. Chattanooga: has a chance to bounce back from a tough loss and make a statement with a win over Wofford
4. The Citadel: needs to shore up the defense to be a contender
5. Mercer: see The Citadel
6. Samford: too talented not to win some games at some point
7. Furman: unrealized potential
8. WCU: defense is uglier than those purple uniforms
9. VMI: there may be a bit of hope after all

Samford 45, Western Carolina 35: Bulldogs finally win one. I just can’t envision a Catamount win in Birmingham. I also can”t envision anyone playing defense in this game.
ETSU 31, Gardner-Webb 17: Bucs keep ship sailing smoothly Against a bad G-W team.
Wofford 24, Charttanooga 17: Terriers show they’re the best in the conference.

[ElCid]

1 - Wofford - I am thinking they got it sewn up...only team that will beat them is themselves
2 - ETSU - Still don't think they are real good, but a good win is a good win
3 - Chattanooga - almost came back...I think they under-rated ETSU and got burnt
4 - The Citadel - I don't think we are real good (bad chemistry right now), but still a threat...we got embarrassed by Towson's Flacco, he is an unreal player
5 - Mercer - missing their ace QB
6 - Furman - Eh, probably getting better every week
7 - Samford - Geez, probably getting worse every week
8 - Western - not really sure what to make of them except if they face a real D, especially someone who has a half way decent O, they are toast
9 - VMI - Not long for this spot if they can gain some momentum, something special happening in Lexington???


Predictions


Western Carolina @ Samford - I keep saying it, but Samford has got to win one at some point...why not this week (over/under of combined total yards...950) - 42-34
Wofford @ Chattanooga (SOCON Game of the Week) - At least we will see some defense in this game. Neither team makes it to 20, probably - 19-13
Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU - Bucs get the win, but it is a let down close one after last weeks win or they are looking ahead, take your pick - 24-17

The first week of Oct and the playoff picture is getting clearer. Unless someone pulls it together, I am thinking we may only get one team this year. Most likely we cannibalize each other. Considering our OOC showing, it doesn't look good. It UTC regroups, probably 2. ETSU looks ok recordwise right now, but they have a brutal schedule coming up. Don't see them sustaining it. Mercer can regain some umph win a win over Yale, but losing their QB hurts, bad. Furman's got a tough 4 game stretch. WCU's remaining schedule is brutal as well. Both Bulldogs and VMI are done. We will see what happens.

[FCSfan]

1. Wofford b/c they are the only team that passes the "eye" test thus far in all 3 phases (should be 4-0) but can get sloppy with the ball
2. ETSU b/c of their record but could easily be 1-4 and didn't blow away Mars Hill
3. Citadel b/c they could easily be 3-1 and play everyone tough
4. UTC b/c their 4 wins came against teams that have won a combined 3 games
5. Mercer b/c they are talented and a tough game for anyone
6. Samford b/c although they have screwed the pooch till now they are talented and have the best QB in FCS
7. WCU b/c they pile on points while have a nonexistent defense
8. Furman b/c of only 1 win but expect that number to climb
9. VMI b/c of the record alone but this program is looking up for the first time in a long time
______________________________

Wofford 28 UTC 20
Gardner Webb 21 ETSU 17
Samford 38 WCU 34

[FUBeAR]

Not earth-shattering news, but I find it interesting.

If I’m not mistaken, at this point, only 3 of the 9 SoCon Teams remain in complete control of their own destiny...After this week, it could be down to 2. #GoMocs

* ETSU - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Wofford - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Mercer - because they only have 1 Conference loss to a Team that has 2 Conference losses AND they have not yet played the 2 Teams with 0 Conference losses. Win out and they are SoCon Champs AND get the Autobid.

These Teams are NOT in control of their destiny...because...

* Chattanooga - because of their loss to ETSU. They would need ETSU to lose 2 Conference games AND win out. If they don’t win out, they would need ETSU to lose 3 games AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* WCU - because, even if WCU wins out, Furman could also win out AND ETSU could lose 2 Conference games AND a whole lot of other stuff, could leave WCU relying on an At-Large bid...even with a 10-1 record. Sure, they would get one at 10-1/7-1 with an FBS win and probably even at 9-2/7-1. At 8-3/6-2 with a D2 win among the 8, based on the SoCon OOC results this year, I doubt the Catamounts would receive a bid.
* Furman - If ETSU and Furman win out, Furman is 7-3/6-1 and would need an At-Large bid. Based on SoCon OOC results AND the Elon debacle, I think FU stays home at 7-3. Dammit!
* The Citadel - Would need Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND Chattanooga to lose 2 more AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* Samford - Would need Mercer & Chatt to lose 2 more SoCon games each & Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* VMI - Would need to win out AND would need ETSU to lose out and Wofford to beat ETSU, but lose its other remaining SoCon games AND a whole lot of other stuff, which may be mathematically impossible, to happen.

Am I right?

[FUBeAR]

7. WCU
8. FurmanYou know that Furman just beat WCU 5 days ago, while leading a good part of the game by 3 scores and most of it by at least 2 scores...right?

[FCSfan]

You know that Furman just beat WCU 5 days ago, while leading a good part of the game by 3 scores and most of it by at least 2 scores...right?

Purely record related. Apologies for the toe stepping.
Hope the purple knights are way up in the rankings soon

[Reign of Terrier]

Not earth-shattering news, but I find it interesting.

If I’m not mistaken, at this point, only 3 of the 9 SoCon Teams remain in complete control of their own destiny...After this week, it could be down to 2. #GoMocs

* ETSU - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Wofford - because they are undefeated in Conference. Win out and they are SoCon Champs and get the Autobid.
* Mercer - because they only have 1 Conference loss to a Team that has 2 Conference losses AND they have not yet played the 2 Teams with 0 Conference losses. Win out and they are SoCon Champs AND get the Autobid.

These Teams are NOT in control of their destiny...because...

* Chattanooga - because of their loss to ETSU. They would need ETSU to lose 2 Conference games AND win out. If they don’t win out, they would need ETSU to lose 3 games AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* WCU - because, even if WCU wins out, Furman could also win out AND ETSU could lose 2 Conference games AND a whole lot of other stuff, could leave WCU relying on an At-Large bid...even with a 10-1 record. Sure, they would get one at 10-1/7-1 with an FBS win and probably even at 9-2/7-1. At 8-3/6-2 with a D2 win among the 8, based on the SoCon OOC results this year, I doubt the Catamounts would receive a bid.
* Furman - If ETSU and Furman win out, Furman is 7-3/6-1 and would need an At-Large bid. Based on SoCon OOC results AND the Elon debacle, I think FU stays home at 7-3. Dammit!
* The Citadel - Would need Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND Chattanooga to lose 2 more AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* Samford - Would need Mercer & Chatt to lose 2 more SoCon games each & Wofford to lose 3 SoCon games AND win out AND a whole lot of other stuff to happen.
* VMI - Would need to win out AND would need ETSU to lose out and Wofford to beat ETSU, but lose its other remaining SoCon games AND a whole lot of other stuff, which may be mathematically impossible, to happen.

Am I right?I think the simplest way to put it is that, right now, the only team that is eliminated is VMI. Furman, Samford and the Citadel still have a chance at the playoffs, but it's difficult because of Florence/bad scheduling. The only way they get in, at this point, is the autobid which will require chaos for Samford and the citadel.

The only one that requires minimal help is Furman, because if they win out and Wofford only loses to them/ETSU loses twice, Furman gets the autobid. If Furman/the citadel/samford loses again they are likely out

The scenario is similar for Western Carolina and Chattanooga, but if they win out, they are likely in the playoffs no matter what, but they win the conference autobid if Furman loses once more and ETSU twice.

Right now, Mercer, Wofford and ETSU just need to win out. Mercer has a better chance at an at-large than ETSU and Wofford the best of those 3.

The homer in me thinks Wofford is going to crush some dreams this year.

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[FCSfan]

If it helps Mr. Bear I have Furman winning big this week

[walliver]

Power rankings:
1) Wofford - defending champs still unbeaten in SoCon
2) ETSU - they keep finding a way to win
3-8 are a toss-up
3) Chattanooga - improved from last year, but not yet at the top
4) Mercer - middle of the pack
5) Furman - Hendrix made lemonaide out of lemons last year and will find a way to fix this team
6) Western Carolina - decent record, but they haven't impressed me. You have to play at least a little defense now and then.
7) Samford - dismal start. I can't imagine them staying this low all season. They have the talent to run the table from here, but I doubt they will. There is something wrong with this team.
8) The Citadel - I have them listed here, but not much difference in teams 3-8
9) VMI - are SoCon defenses really that bad, or are the Keydets improving - still need to win to move up.

Western Carolina at Samford - offensive records may fall for both teams, but Sammy will make a stop or two more than the Cants and wins 49-38
Wofford at Chattanooga - last years game went to overtime. Both teams are better this year, but Terriers pull out a 31-24 win.
Gardner Webb at ETSU - The running bulldogs are making the SoCon's OOC record much better, and this continues with a 42-10 Mountain Pirate Win.

[FUBeAR]

Purely record related. Apologies for the toe stepping.
Hope the purple knights are way up in the rankings soonNo toes harmed. Quick feet! I just think, while not entirely ignoring records, Power Rankings are intended to transcend (maybe that’s the right word) records & look more deeply into which Team we REALLY think is, or may be, better than the one(s) we rank lower. With the FU/WCU game being so recent & FU leading comfortably most of the way, I just would find it hard to say the game was an ‘one-off’ upset or a ‘fluke.’ Opinions may vary. :)

[FCSfan]

No toes harmed. Quick feet! I just think, while not entirely ignoring records, Power Rankings are intended to transcend (maybe that’s the right word) records & look more deeply into which Team we REALLY think is, or may be, better than the one(s) we rank lower. With the FU/WCU game being so recent & FU leading comfortably most of the way, I just would find it hard to say the game was an ‘one-off’ upset or a ‘fluke.’ Opinions may vary. :)

Furman's win over WCU was no fluke or upset and I fully expect the young men from Traveler's Rest to be ahead of most in the power rankings (and win column) by season's end.
At the same time I think WCU can score a bunch on anyone and Furman was fortunate that the Cats didn't wake up until halftime (no knocking the FU defense).

I will say that even though some are declaring the SoCon a weak conference overall and the collective defensive play this year is poor.....the future of the conference is bright in my eyes.

[Scrappy94]

Wofford – Still holding on strong as the clear favorite.
ETSU – Only putting them here due to their record. Still not sold on this team. Offense seems to have issues. With having a non-D1 game, coupled with their remaining schedule, I don’t see this team making the playoffs. I could even see them going 1-5 for the remainder of their schedule.
Chattanooga – Will come out stronger after the loss. Had issues protecting the ball, which is uncharacteristic of this team. I believe it will be fixed. Defense still looks great. Would have held ETSU to fewer points if the offense hadn’t given ETSU the ball with a short field. Probably would have ended up winning if it wasn’t for the poor clock management at the end of the game. As I heard on ESPN radio earlier this week, the better team did not win this game. We out-gained them by quite a bit, but that didn’t show in points. Might have overlooked this game. This is more of a rivalry for ETSU than it is for Chattanooga.
Mercer – Beat a team they should have beat. Looks solid. Gave up more points than they would have liked.
Furman – Finally won a game.
Western Carolina – Defense is still poor.
The Citadel – First game they’ve had that wasn’t a close game.
Samford – What a disappointment to what was supposed to be their year. No chance at even making the playoffs.
VMI – This offense is going to bite someone this year.


Western Carolina at Samford – This Samford offense is going to love putting up numbers against this bad WCU defense. The question is if the WCU offense can keep up. Bulldogs by 14.
Wofford at Chattanooga – Mocs will be angry after last week and take it out on the Terriers. Mocs were a bad team last year, and took the Terriers to overtime at their place. With Chattanooga being much improved, and it being a home game for the Mocs, I’ll take Chattanooga in this one. Mocs by 4.
Gardner-Webb at ETSU – Bucs will have a hangover from the last win, and will possibly overlook the Runnin’ Bulldogs. Trap game. Runnin’ Bulldogs by 3.

[gofurman]

Wofford – Still holding on strong as the clear favorite.
ETSU – Only putting them here due to their record. Still not sold on this team. Offense seems to have issues. With having a non-D1 game, coupled with their remaining schedule, I don’t see this team making the playoffs. I could even see them going 1-5 for the remainder of their schedule.
Chattanooga – Will come out stronger after the loss. Had issues protecting the ball, which is uncharacteristic of this team. I believe it will be fixed. Defense still looks great. Would have held ETSU to fewer points if the offense hadn’t given ETSU the ball with a short field. Probably would have ended up winning if it wasn’t for the poor clock management at the end of the game. As I heard on ESPN radio earlier this week, the better team did not win this game. We out-gained them by quite a bit, but that didn’t show in points. Might have overlooked this game. This is more of a rivalry for ETSU than it is for Chattanooga.
Mercer – Beat a team they should have beat. Looks solid. Gave up more points than they would have liked.
Furman – Finally won a game.
Western Carolina – Defense is still poor.
The Citadel – First game they’ve had that wasn’t a close game.
Samford – What a disappointment to what was supposed to be their year. No chance at even making the playoffs.
VMI – This offense is going to bite someone this year.


Western Carolina at Samford – This Samford offense is going to love putting up numbers against this bad WCU defense. The question is if the WCU offense can keep up. Bulldogs by 14.
Wofford at Chattanooga – Mocs will be angry after last week and take it out on the Terriers. Mocs were a bad team last year, and took the Terriers to overtime at their place. With Chattanooga being much improved, and it being a home game for the Mocs, I’ll take Chattanooga in this one. Mocs by 4.
Gardner-Webb at ETSU – Bucs will have a hangover from the last win, and will possibly overlook the Runnin’ Bulldogs. Trap game. Runnin’ Bulldogs by 3.

As a Paladin, I say Furman finishes this year 3-5, MAYBE 4-4 in league. Clay Hendrix is hopefully the man for the job - he took Fowler's2016 3-win team and won 8 games and had us in the playoffs last year. We did have Cronic as OC and I still wonder if losing him is going to bite us or not. Only time (a few years) will tell. This year we are just SOO young.. lots of new talent which encourages me for Hendrix and staff ability to recruit. Truthfully I felt Western had guys in the right place on D and our guys just out-athleted them. Our D was out of place. At least that can be fixed...

Anyway, yeah, I think we go 3-5, maybe 4-4 in conference this year and then hopefully 5-3 is the lowest we could do next year.. 5-3 or 6-2 type level nxt yr depending on QB situation. At least next year the QB will have a more mature OL. More running and more time for the QB.. its all about the trenches. This year 4 sophomore and one junior OL so hopefully all 5 starters return for next year.

We are sorta one QB short as we have Roberts who is a good game manager at Senior and the others are freshman - in a perfect world we would have a junior QB in the mix too

[Reign of Terrier]

Lots of people picking Chatty this week. I don't see it.

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[wcugrad95]

I still think Furman has some surprising issues on defense - which, like everybody else, I thought would be the strength of the team. I know the Paladins played a strong SOS to start with, but in their FCS games they have given up 45, 29, and 38 (37.33/game). And don't bash me on WCU's defense - I readily admit (and have since the beginning) we are not good. A decent to good defense against Furman will probably mean they find themselves in a number of 20-something to 20-something dogfights. But of course it seems like every SoCon game now ***can be*** a close game between just about all of the teams.

Here is the remaining composite schedule, and I could see a lot of teams going in the 3-3 kind of range that would end up probably a couple or more 4-4/5-3 records and probably only 1 playoff team who will go 7-1 or 6-2 in the league:




Team
6-Oct
13-Oct
20-Oct
27-Oct
3-Nov
10-Nov
17-Nov
Current Record


etsu
Gardner-Webb
@Citadel
@Wofford
WCU
@Mercer
BYE
Samford
4-1 / 3-0


wofford
@UTC
@Furman
ETSU
Mercer
@Samford
@WCU
Presbyterian
3-1 / 2-0


utc
Wofford
@WCU
BYE
VMI
@Furman
Mercer
@South Carolina
4-1 / 2-1


mercer
BYE
@Yale
WCU
@Wofford
ETSU
@UTC
Furman
3-2 / 2-1


furman
BYE
Wofford
Samford
@Citadel
UTC
@VMI
@Mercer
1-3 / 1-1


wcu
@Samford
UTC
@Mercer
@ETSU
Citadel
Wofford
@UNC
3-1 / 1-1


citadel
BYE
ETSU
@VMI
Furman
@WCU
Samford
@Alabama
1-3 / 1-2


samford
WCU
VMI
@Furman
BYE
Wofford
@Citadel
@ETSU
1-4 / 0-2


vmi
BYE
@Samford
Citadel
@UTC
Tusculum
Furman
@ODU
0-5 / 0-4




At this stage and with me really having no idea, I will use those as my power rankings but flip-flop Wofford and ETSU with the Terriers on top. I don't think ETSU keeps it up after this weekend, as I think unlike the other teams their offense is going to let them down. They will be 5-1, but I could see them only winning 1 to maybe 2 more games (6 or 7 wins is still a big step forward).

[PaladinFan]

I think the simplest way to put it is that, right now, the only team that is eliminated is VMI. Furman, Samford and the Citadel still have a chance at the playoffs, but it's difficult because of Florence/bad scheduling. The only way they get in, at this point, is the autobid which will require chaos for Samford and the citadel.

The only one that requires minimal help is Furman, because if they win out and Wofford only loses to them/ETSU loses twice, Furman gets the autobid. If Furman/the citadel/samford loses again they are likely out

The scenario is similar for Western Carolina and Chattanooga, but if they win out, they are likely in the playoffs no matter what, but they win the conference autobid if Furman loses once more and ETSU twice.

Right now, Mercer, Wofford and ETSU just need to win out. Mercer has a better chance at an at-large than ETSU and Wofford the best of those 3.

The homer in me thinks Wofford is going to crush some dreams this year.

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It's tough to know how the committee would deal with Furman.

A lot of that depends on the field, of course. I can get a big picture of Furman staying on the bubble at 6-4 for no other reason than Colgate found an excuse not to play them. I'm not saying Furman would have beaten the currently undefeated and top 25 Colgate, but I've seen Furman wear Colgate out three times recently (and did so last year in New York).

If a 7-4 Furman team with a top 25 win over Colgate would get in, can you really dock them for being 6-4 after Colgate backed out of the game?

[gofurman]

It's tough to know how the committee would deal with Furman.

A lot of that depends on the field, of course. I can get a big picture of Furman staying on the bubble at 6-4 for no other reason than Colgate found an excuse not to play them. I'm not saying Furman would have beaten the currently undefeated and top 25 Colgate, but I've seen Furman wear Colgate out three times recently (and did so last year in New York).

If a 7-4 Furman team with a top 25 win over Colgate would get in, can you really dock them for being 6-4 after Colgate backed out of the game?

I hear you man but I can't see us making that an issue by winning out. I would be pumped to see us go 5-5 this year. Elated. That would be 5-3 SoCon record - so a league winning record and top half of the SoCon finish.. for a team that returns almost everyone nxt year. After the Elon 45-7 thumping I just don't see us making the committee sweat.

The Colgate thing did stink. Sounds like they backed out - FU offered free tickets to anyone who evacuated and 4 hours later Colgate announces the game is cancelled. Booooo

We have OWNED them - including the 30 point whoopin' last year in NY. They just aren't that athletic. Wish we coulda played em.. if for nothing else but reps. but it wasn't to be

[walliver]

I suspect the committee will count the cancelled games as wins for teams seriously under consideration as long as the games were FCS vs. FCS.

[PaladinFan]

Open question for Samford fans.

This is Chris Hatcher's 4th year in Homewood. He has, I think, elevated the Bulldog program a bit beyond where Sullivan had it, but after two first round exits from the post season and what appears in all likelihood a whiff on the post season in 2018, I'm curious as to how Samford fans see the future.

Looking back, the "Hatch Attack" has quickly lost steam since it was introduced as the only "air raid" offense in the SoCon in 2015. Excluding games against D2 opponents, Samford's offensive output has gone from 33 ppg in 2015, to 31 ppg in 2016, 26 ppg in 2017, and 20 ppg in 2018.

That trend has to be concerning if for no other reason than Samford currently has All American players at QB and WR in a pass heavy offense. It sort of defies logic that a team could have arguably the best offensive tandem in school history playing their senior seasons and the offense is getting worse, not better. I'm inclined to think that the "book is out" on stopping Samford's offense.

After this season, Hodges and McKnight will be gone. Samford will turn the ball over to someone who is not the best QB in program history in a league where opponents are largely figuring out how to stop an offense that struggles to run the ball. Ordinarily, I might wonder if it is not a good time for a change in offensive philosophy, except that Samford's offense is so closely tied to its head coach.

Hatcher is a likeable guy, but has a 22-18 record at Samford. If you take away the annual D2 games, I calculate that he's 18-18 against D1 competition at Samford. He is now on his 4th head coaching stop, and third D1 stop where he has been pretty much a .500 coach. I wonder if he would willingly loosen his grip on his offense or is that the hill he is willing to die on.

[wcugrad95]

Count as a win for who? Colgate was 2-1 with their loss being to Syracuse, then they shutout their next 2 opponents. Furman was coming off the Elon game, and lost their next game. The committee isn't ***supposed to*** look at last year, so if both teams are in playoff consideration (or 1 is already in) they can't "give" both teams a win.

Really wish they would have played because I think the Paladins would have won and it would have helped the conference. But I think that game might hurt FU and the SoCon.

[FUBeAR]

Open question for Samford fans.

This is Chris Hatcher's 4th year in Homewood.

Excluding games against D2 opponents, Samford's offensive output has gone from...
33 ppg in 2015
31 ppg in 2016 - 94%
26 ppg in 2017 - 84% 79%
20 ppg in 2018 - 77% 64% 61%

If you take away the annual D2 games, I calculate that he's 18-18 against D1 competition at Samford.

D1 wins
2015 - 5
2016 - 6
2017 - 7
2018 - 0 (ytd) Massey projects 4. Max would be 6 (assuming they don’t make the Playoffs)

D1 losses
2015 - 5
2016 - 5
2017 - 4
2018 - 4 (ytd) Massey projects 6. Max would be 10

These scoring stats are surprising, almost shocking to me. I have added the 1, 2, and 3 year “% of prior year” scoring rates. Would be interesting to break this scoring stat down further and extract Defensive scores and also look at it only counting TD’s because of the typical challenge that type of Offense has in scoring TD’s in the red zone due to the ‘shrink’ of the field. Scoring is now @ 61% of what they reached in 2015. And, it’s been a steady, but (mostly) increasing decline. WOW!

But...I also added the D1 win & loss totals by year. This has gone the other way (until this year) though, so I think we’d have to conclude that, surprisingly (to me), they have improved on Defense. That is not usually the case with Teams that run this type of Offense, IMO. Of course, they could win out and then this year’s win/loss totals would be ‘steady’ AND, if they do win out, with 6 other, specific, conference losses by specific SoCon Teams (ETSU, Woffy, Chatt, and Mercer), they could win the SoCon and receive the SoCon autobid.

All in all, I think we are (at least) a week early in ringing the death knell for Samford and Coach Hatcher (and his Offense). Remember, they are playing WCU this week. That fact seemed to provide (at least significantly contribute) quite a tonic to Furman’s ailing Offense last week. If the Bulldogs score 100 this week, what would that do for these scoring averages?

[PaladinFan]

Two other observations.

Over their last 11 D1 opponents, Samford has reached the 30 point plateau one time (A 42-7 win over ETSU last season). I expect they'll hit it again this weekend.

I also agree that the Samford defense has been vastly improved than it was early in Hatcher's tenure. The group last year was actually pretty solid, both statistically and objectively. They are not quite as good on that side of the ball this year, and, of course, will graduate their best player.

I'm just interested to know the opinions of Samford fans. Barring a bizarre set of events, they will miss the playoffs this season and lose at least three All Americans and arguably the nation's best offensive AND defensive player. I would wager that this year (maybe last year) is the most talent Samford has ever had on a roster. Next year's team may be good, but you are not simply going to replace Hodges, McKnight, and Gooden with "next man up."

[walliver]

There have long been issues with Hatcher's Samford teams. The 2016 loss to ETSU being a great example. That ETSU team only had conference wins against WCU and Samford, and most of their conference losses were blow-outs. Yet, they held Sammy to 14 points. There seems to be a game like this every year.

Hatcher was great at D2 Valdosta State. I suspect he would have done well at Georgia Southern if he had been given a chance to build his team, but he was obviously preaching in the wrong church there.

Maybe he can pick up Kelly Bryant for next year - he would obviously add to Sammy's weak running game.

[Reign of Terrier]

This is exactly what happened when Hatcher was at Georgia Southern: lots of hype and early success, but no noticable improvement and perhaps even regression.

The only thing you can credit him is that he's owned Wofford. Had he not beaten Wofford each of the last 4 years, he would not have made the playoffs and he would not have a single signature win.

This is why I'm skeptical Wofford will beat them this year, even though Samford is a dumpster fire.

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[PaladinFan]

This is exactly what happened when Hatcher was at Georgia Southern: lots of hype and early success, but no noticable improvement and perhaps even regression.

The only thing you can credit him is that he's owned Wofford. Had he not beaten Wofford each of the last 4 years, he would not have made the playoffs and he would not have a single signature win.

This is why I'm skeptical Wofford will beat them this year, even though Samford is a dumpster fire.

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My personal opinion is that Hatcher's short-lived tenure at GSU was more a result of their peculiar fan base and administration than anything else. He was handed a split-veer option personnel and told to run his offense with virtually none of the players he needed. Unlike Van Gorder, Hatcher at least had the good sense to put Jayson Foster in the shotgun and just let him run the ball.

My sense is that at VSU, Hatcher could essentially out recruit is competition. He just had better athletes running the system. At Samford, he doesn't have the stark recruiting advantage he did at VSU and the talent gap just isn't as big.

I haven't dug into this, but I presume that Hodges, McKnight, and Gooden were all Sullivan recruits, not Hatcher recruits.

[Reign of Terrier]

My personal opinion is that Hatcher's short-lived tenure at GSU was more a result of their peculiar fan base and administration than anything else. He was handed a split-veer option personnel and told to run his offense with virtually none of the players he needed. Unlike Van Gorder, Hatcher at least had the good sense to put Jayson Foster in the shotgun and just let him run the ball.

My sense is that at VSU, Hatcher could essentially out recruit is competition. He just had better athletes running the system. At Samford, he doesn't have the stark recruiting advantage he did at VSU and the talent gap just isn't as big.

I haven't dug into this, but I presume that Hodges, McKnight, and Gooden were all Sullivan recruits, not Hatcher recruits.At least Hodges was, he's a 5th year senior

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[PaladinFan]

At least Hodges was, he's a 5th year senior

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Looks like Gooden was class of 2014, so he would have been a Sullivan recruit.

McKnight was class of 2015 and committed after Sullivan resigned. According to the local paper in Florida (http://preps.heraldtribune.com/2015/01/27/football-manatees-mcknight-commits-samford/), McKnight commented that he was excited about an offense that "throw[s] it 50 times a game." I presume that means Hatcher locked him down.

[PaladinFan]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1047850246095745024

[kdinva]

that hit would get a flag in the NFL........xmadx



https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1047850246095745024

[Reign of Terrier]

If we are on the subject of sacks and new players, can someone pull up the socon stats? Wofford's true freshman TJ Neil has at least 3 sacks to his credit as well.

Conklin and the new DC's defense is more flexible than Sheil Wood's. We're calling more blitzes and utilizing more man coverage and personnel packages. So far we are limiting opponents to about two substinative scoring drives a game, which is much better than last year's 3-4.

Our defense just looks better both in the stat column and with the eye test and that's part of the reason I'm more confident about where we are compared to last year. Last year, our defense was good and came through many times but it could have been better. We let bad offenses score about 3-4 times a game which just isn't good.

This year our offense appears to be improved as well, but through 4 games we have pretty much limited opponents offense in a way that I think is comparable to last year in terms of measurable improvement. The offensive success may not transfer into the conference schedule but I'm confident the defensive stats will to some extent.

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[PaladinFan]

Incidentally, this is the only place I've been able to find the replay of Tyrie Adams' pretty miraculous touchdown pass near the end of Saturday's game.

https://wlos.com/sports/content/catamount-rally-falls-short-as-furman-hangs-wcu-with-first-loss-44-38

It's at the 1:00 mark, and was really slow to load.

One of those plays a defense can't do much about.

[PaladinFan]

If we are on the subject of sacks and new players, can someone pull up the socon stats? Wofford's true freshman TJ Neil has at least 3 sacks to his credit as well.

Conklin and the new DC's defense is more flexible than Sheil Wood's. We're calling more blitzes and utilizing more man coverage and personnel packages. So far we are limiting opponents to about two substinative scoring drives a game, which is much better than last year's 3-4.

Our defense just looks better both in the stat column and with the eye test and that's part of the reason I'm more confident about where we are compared to last year. Last year, our defense was good and came through many times but it could have been better. We let bad offenses score about 3-4 times a game which just isn't good.

This year our offense appears to be improved as well, but through 4 games we have pretty much limited opponents offense in a way that I think is comparable to last year in terms of measurable improvement. The offensive success may not transfer into the conference schedule but I'm confident the defensive stats will to some extent.

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Hope is a one of those pure pass rusher types that you don't often see in the SoCon. At the current rate, he will obliterate Davis Tull's all time sack tally by roughly 30 sacks. Seems unlikely, but he's that good.

Hope is one of those FCS players that if you covered up his measurables and just looked at high school production, you'd figure he'd be in the SEC or ACC. I imagine he was overlooked as an edge because at 6'1 210 he's built more like a safety than a pass rusher.

To your question, TJ Neal is 8th in the SoCon with 3 sacks. Player from ETSU has 5, but has also played in one more game than Hope has.

[wcugrad95]

Official stats are at http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confldrs.htm

The kid from Wofford has been credited with 3 sacks. For what it is worth, WCU has two guys tied for second with 4 sacks and we are second in total with 16 (but tied with ETSU at averaging 4 per game). So take sacks as not necessarily a great indicator of a defense - more an indicator of the individual's ability/motor.

Hope is a good one.

[FUBeAR]

Incidentally, this is the only place I've been able to find the replay of Tyrie Adams' pretty miraculous touchdown pass near the end of Saturday's game.

https://wlos.com/sports/content/catamount-rally-falls-short-as-furman-hangs-wcu-with-first-loss-44-38

It's at the 1:00 mark, and was really slow to load.

One of those plays a defense can't do much about.Can’t believe Replay overruled FUBeAR’s clear call of OOB as seen on this video!

note: replay was right :-(

BTW Cat fans...FUBeAR helped the WCU WR to his feet & told him great catch & great effort after that play. #NoHater

[PaladinFan]

Official stats are at http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confldrs.htm

The kid from Wofford has been credited with 3 sacks. For what it is worth, WCU has two guys tied for second with 4 sacks and we are second in total with 16 (but tied with ETSU at averaging 4 per game). So take sacks as not necessarily a great indicator of a defense - more an indicator of the individual's ability/motor.

Hope is a good one.

I think that WCU is trying to channel App State in having an aggressive defense that is prone to taking risks to give the ball back to their potent offense. Furman is a similar philosophy.

What was interesting about Hope's game on Saturday is that WCU had only surrendered 3 sacks all season heading into that contest.

[FUBeAR]

Official stats are at http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confldrs.htm

The kid from Wofford has been credited with 3 sacks. For what it is worth, WCU has two guys tied for second with 4 sacks and we are second in total with 16 (but tied with ETSU at averaging 4 per game). So take sacks as not necessarily a great indicator of a defense - more an indicator of the individual's ability/motor.

Hope is a good one.More “Apples-to-Apples”-type SoCon (only) stats here - http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confonly.htm#conf.wix - no D2 games, no invalid-sister Big South (Gardner-Webb) games, and no Team-A-has-played-an-FBS-game-&-Team-B-hasn’t stats included in these metrics.

[PaladinFan]

More “Apples-to-Apples”-type SoCon (only) stats here - http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confonly.htm#conf.wix - no D2 games, no invalid-sister Big South (Gardner-Webb) games, and no Team-A-has-played-an-FBS-game-&-Team-B-hasn’t stats included in these metrics.

I think Hope's only non-SoCon sack was against Clemson, who isn't shabby.

Those stats all show that Reese Udinski of VMI is throwing for more yards per hame than Devlin Hodges, just like we all predicted.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Hope's only non-SoCon sack was against Clemson, who isn't shabby.

Those stats all show that Reese Udinski of VMI is throwing for more yards per hame than Devlin Hodges, just like we all predicted.

I mean, if we're honest with ourselves, if Samford ran the actual air raid offense like VMI is doing...they would be scoring more points.

Also I'm pretty sure VMI is outscoring Samford, but I'm too lazy to check that.

[SU DOG]

I mean, if we're honest with ourselves, if Samford ran the actual air raid offense like VMI is doing...they would be scoring more points.

Also I'm pretty sure VMI is outscoring Samford, but I'm too lazy to check that.

That's probably true. I think most of us Samford fans are just perplexed and we don't really know what to think or say - I know I am. Hatcher kept Billy D on as DC, and that was a good thing for our defense. I really like Coach Hatcher, and hope he can get things turned around this season. A lot has been made of Samford's Playoff failures, but it is also worth noting that those games were all on the road and all against teams that advanced. As for this year, however, this is just not acceptable to this point. If not now- WHEN? As has been stated, we are a team with lots of seniors. Coach Hatcher, in his 5th year just before coming to Samford, won ONE D-1 game(at Murray State), so I just hope that is not indicative of things to come. One thing is for sure, our play so far is certainly not representative of our talent. Like fans of under performing teams everywhere, there is lots of unrest in Homewood Alabama.

[Reign of Terrier]

Hatcher hasn't been at the D1 level long enough to go through more than 1-2 recruiting classes of his own players. He's also gotten progressively worse in all of his jobs. He had a losing record at Murray State, and as has already been pointed out, he's hovering above .500 at Samford.

Biggest con man in FCS IMO

[PaladinFan]

That's probably true. I think most of us Samford fans are just perplexed and we don't really know what to think or say - I know I am. Hatcher kept Billy D on as DC, and that was a good thing for our defense. I really like Coach Hatcher, and hope he can get things turned around this season. A lot has been made of Samford's Playoff failures, but it is also worth noting that those games were all on the road and all against teams that advanced. As for this year, however, this is just not acceptable to this point. If not now- WHEN? As has been stated, we are a team with lots of seniors. Coach Hatcher, in his 5th year just before coming to Samford, won ONE D-1 game(at Murray State), so I just hope that is not indicative of things to come. One thing is for sure, our play so far is certainly not representative of our talent. Like fans of under performing teams everywhere, there is lots of unrest in Homewood Alabama.

Samford's a lot better than their OVC days, but I think the "when" question is a key one.

If Samford isn't taking that next step with this group, when will they?

Admittedly, I'm not sure what the next step looks like or whether all SoCon teams are doomed to float in mediocrity until the end times.

[gofurman]

More “Apples-to-Apples”-type SoCon (only) stats here - http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2018/confonly.htm#conf.wix - no D2 games, no invalid-sister Big South (Gardner-Webb) games, and no Team-A-has-played-an-FBS-game-&-Team-B-hasn’t stats included in these metrics.


clearly these are much better stats. One team plays Bama.. another plays Shorter (no offense to Sammy)

[Reign of Terrier]

The best thing the Socon can ask of its members is the state schools/bigger schools (Mercer, ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina) get up to a consistent level. I'm optimistic about ETSU (even if I'm skeptical of them *this year) and Mercer/Western are almost there. Say what you want about Chattanooga, even last year they were better than the dumpster fire of a program they were before Huesman, so I'd say they are the "closest" to that.

Wofford is fine as a program. Arguably, we're as or more talented than we've ever been. The only drawback may be the competition we play nowadays. We won the conference outright last season and I don't think that was even in the top 3 best teams we've fielded. Samford just doesn't have the consistency. Furman isn't "back" yet. VMI hasn't had a winning season since 1981. The Citadel is at the same (or better) level of respectable they always are.

I don't think the Socon is down, I just think playoff zoning has led us to cannibalize each other and the startup programs haven't shown consistency quite yet. Wofford's blow out loss to NDSU was the first playoff loss we had where we weren't competitive in the 4th quarter. Furman/the Citadel showed promise in the last couple years, but got cannibalized by Wofford. Chattanooga is only like 2 years removed from a playoff win (lots of teams can't say that). The only team that's really disappointed in the playoffs recently is Samford.

[SU DOG]

Yet that disappointing Samford Team has handled Wofford 5 of the last 6 years. I get rather touchy when other SoCon folks point at Samford for Playoff failures. Look at the teams we played, where the games were played, and how those teams did afterwards. Sure we, like other SoCon squads, need to win those games, but the conference as a whole hasn't made any real significant runs. I can't see the reasoning for singling out Samford.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yet that disappointing Samford Team has handled Wofford 5 of the last 6 years. I get rather touchy when other SoCon folks point at Samford for Playoff failures. Look at the teams we played, where the games were played, and how those teams did afterwards. Sure we, like other SoCon squads, need to win those games, but the conference as a whole hasn't made any real significant runs. I can't see the reasoning for singling out Samford.Because Wofford, the Citadel, Chattanooga, and Furman have all won more playoff games in the last 4 years than Samford has since 1991.

And each of them, except Chattanooga, has a playoff win on the road.

The only thing Samford has going for them is that they've beaten a decent Wofford team in the last 2 years. Hatcher is good against option teams, and going back to his time at Georgia Southern, has a winning record against Wofford and that's pretty much it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[SU DOG]

You're entitled to your opinion, just as I am to mine. Going back to 1991, while accurate is a real stretch, since we only joined the SoCon 10 years ago. While I'm not happy with our Playoff failures, I am thoroughly convinced that NO SoCon Team has accomplished enough in Playoffs in those years to look down their snout at Samford.

[Reign of Terrier]

You're entitled to your opinion, just as I am to mine. Going back to 1991, while accurate is a real stretch, since we only joined the SoCon 10 years ago. While I'm not happy with our Playoff failures, I am thoroughly convinced that NO SoCon Team has accomplished enough in Playoffs in those years to look down their snout at Samford.

Since 1991, Furman made the national title game and a couple semifinal games, Wofford's made a semifinal game, and both are in the top 15-20ish in terms of playoff wins/games played.

Wofford wasn't D1 until 1996.

In the last 10 years, Wofford has made the quarter finals 4 times.

We may not be App State or Georgia Southern but to say that no one has done anything is a stretch.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[SU DOG]

So, where did I say that no one has done anything? I think I said ENOUGH to merit the comments. Wofford has definitely made the best runs, and if you think that is enough to throw stones at Samford, then OK. Wofford has been the best in the SoCon lately, which makes the Samford wins over the Terriers even more remarkable. BTW, Hatcher has nothing to do with the defense, just to clarify. And WOW, I sure didn't realize that the ONLY thing we've had going for us for 2 years is the wins over Wofford. There must be lots of SoCon teams that have nothing at all going for them if that is the true. LOL!

[PaladinFan]

A couple other thoughts on Samford's offense.

The Bulldogs are putting up right around 450 yards a game, but do not score that many points. Highlighting my earlier post, you see that trend continuing down each year since Hatcher has been in Birmingham despite having more veteran offensive talent each season. If you take away the Shorter game (who, again, is terrible), Samford is near the top of the league in total offense but the bottom in scoring offense. They put up yards, but not points.

One of the valid criticisms of the air raid offense is that it struggles to operate without space. As the field gets smaller closer the the endzone, the vertical routes go away and defenses have less field to cover. The absence of a threatening running game then manifests itself where Samford still has to throw, but reduces the space in which to do it.

You can see that, a bit, in Samford's scoring this season. Of their 9 non-Shorter touchdowns, only 3 have come from inside 10 yards (2 yard rush v. FSU, 1 yard rush v. UTC, 1 yard pass v. KSU).

What's interesting, though, is that Fineran, Samford's kicker, has hit on 7 field goals this season (6 non-Shorter FGs). Of those field goals, only 1 (a 45 yarder against Mercer) came with the ball placed outside the 20 yard line. Two of his field goals came with the ball placed inside the 5.

So, when Samford scores a touchdown, it is usually from a distance of 10+ yards (in fact, all but two passing TDs this season are from 15+). They will get the ball in the redzone, as evidence by their field goal attempts from close distances, but do not seem to be converting touchdowns.

My guess is that Samford is moving the ball well between the 20s, but when the space constricts they are having a hard time putting it in the endzone (this isn't novel to Samford - the Atlanta Falcons are a prime example of difficulty scoring TDs from close range). You saw this manifest itself last year when Samford had the ball on WCU's three yard line and couldn't score. The talent is certainly there, but the Bulldogs are going to have to find ways to punch it in from close range.

[FUBeAR]

If you take away the Shorter game (who, again, is terribleYour post made me curious to see how Shorter has been doing since Samford thumped them. Um...not well...

L - Tusculum 61-14 (VMI plays Tusculum (2-2) in a few weeks)
L - West Florida 51-7
L - Valdosta State 52-0
L - West Georgia 58-27

But that’s OK. Newberry & Mars Hill aren’t exactly taking D2 by storm either. Well, Newberry has won 3 in a row (1 over a College of Faith look-alike), but they face Drew Cronic’s high-flying Lenoir Rhyne Team this Sat. and I expect will get trounced.

[Mocs123]

We played Shorter in 2016 after we had a last minute drop out in our schedule and I have to say they were the worst college football team I have ever seen. We beat them 66-0 after pulling our starters very early and they had 16 yards of total offense. Yes, you read that right 16 yards of total offense for the game. They were beyond bad.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, where did I say that no one has done anything? I think I said ENOUGH to merit the comments. Wofford has definitely made the best runs, and if you think that is enough to throw stones at Samford, then OK. Wofford has been the best in the SoCon lately, which makes the Samford wins over the Terriers even more remarkable. BTW, Hatcher has nothing to do with the defense, just to clarify. And WOW, I sure didn't realize that the ONLY thing we've had going for us for 2 years is the wins over Wofford. There must be lots of SoCon teams that have nothing at all going for them if that is the true. LOL!

Here let me help you with that

I am thoroughly convinced that NO SoCon Team has accomplished enough in Playoffs in those years to look down their snout at Samford.

2 years ago, Samford finished 7-4, with only 6 d1 wins. Take away the Wofford win and they are 6-5 and not in the playoffs.
Samford finishes 8-3 last year with only 7 d1 wins. Take away the Wofford win and they are 7-4 and likely not in the playoffs.

Take those two games away, and Hatcher is .500 with no playoff games to botch. Wofford's turnovers and inability to defend an air raid offense is the only reason Hatcher has a job at this point. You're welcome.

[gofurman]

The best thing the Socon can ask of its members is the state schools/bigger schools (Mercer, ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina) get up to a consistent level. I'm optimistic about ETSU (even if I'm skeptical of them *this year) and Mercer/Western are almost there. Say what you want about Chattanooga, even last year they were better than the dumpster fire of a program they were before Huesman, so I'd say they are the "closest" to that.

Wofford is fine as a program. Arguably, we're as or more talented than we've ever been. The only drawback may be the competition we play nowadays. We won the conference outright last season and I don't think that was even in the top 3 best teams we've fielded. Samford just doesn't have the consistency. Furman isn't "back" yet. VMI hasn't had a winning season since 1981. The Citadel is at the same (or better) level of respectable they always are.

I don't think the Socon is down, I just think playoff zoning has led us to cannibalize each other and the startup programs haven't shown consistency quite yet. Wofford's blow out loss to NDSU was the first playoff loss we had where we weren't competitive in the 4th quarter. Furman/the Citadel showed promise in the last couple years, but got cannibalized by Wofford. Chattanooga is only like 2 years removed from a playoff win (lots of teams can't say that). The only team that's really disappointed in the playoffs recently is Samford.

YT, you are usually a little more objective than this. Woff killed us in the playoffs but won by 1 pt in the reg season.. that's hardly 'cannibalized' as I read it.

Here is the Woff v Furman record the last several years:

Winner

2004.. W...31-24........Spartanburg - FU
2005.. W...34-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2006.. W...35-21........Spartanburg - FU
2007...L....20-45.........GREENVILLE - Woff
2008...L....10-35........Spartanburg - Woff
2009.. W...58-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2010...L....17-38........Spartanburg - Woff
2011.. W...26-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2012...L....17-20........Spartanburg - Woff
2013.. W...27-14.........GREENVILLE - FU
2014.. W...31-14.........GREENVILLE - FU
2015...L....28-38........Spartanburg - Woff
2016...L....27-34.........GREENVILLE - Woff
2017...L....23-24........Spartanburg - Woff
2017 .. L....10-28........Spartanburg - Woff

So Woff has the last 4 but that's 8-7 in favor of Woff since 2004 (I just chose that yr because it was in a column format in our notes.. it goes in our favor if you go back farther)

Anyway, to your point you were making to the Samford fan about SoCon playoff success, yes, FU has played in the National title game in 2001.. and had Deep runs to the semi-finals or close in 2004/2005. Honestly I think we were the best team out there in 2004 - and I am objective. We fumbled and had huge mistakes and lost by one pt to JMU at Furman (semi-final?). JMU then cruised to the national title after eeking out a win over us - we had a great OL w skill players of Ingle Martin, Jerome Felton (NFL Fullback and All-Pro for 8 years), Ike West and Brian Bratton (CFL receiver).

I do think it's funny when people say FU is living in the 80's... we played for the NATIONAL TITLE in 2001 which is more than any other current SoCon member has EVER done except Western? WCU played in the Title game in 83 and lost. National Runner up for WCU in 83.

Wofford has objectively been the most consistent lately for sure.

What we all need is for the SoCon (probably the 3rd best league?) to get a little better overall - this NDSU thing is ridiculous (and somewhat JMU)

[Reign of Terrier]

YT, you are usually a little more objective than this. Woff killed us in the playoffs but won by 1 pt in the reg season.. that's hardly 'cannibalized' as I read it.

Here is the Woff v Furman record the last several years:

Winner

2004.. W...31-24........Spartanburg - FU
2005.. W...34-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2006.. W...35-21........Spartanburg - FU
2007...L....20-45.........GREENVILLE - Woff
2008...L....10-35........Spartanburg - Woff
2009.. W...58-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2010...L....17-38........Spartanburg - Woff
2011.. W...26-21.........GREENVILLE - FU
2012...L....17-20........Spartanburg - Woff
2013.. W...27-14.........GREENVILLE - FU
2014.. W...31-14.........GREENVILLE - FU
2015...L....28-38........Spartanburg - Woff
2016...L....27-34.........GREENVILLE - Woff
2017...L....23-24........Spartanburg - Woff
2017 .. L....10-28........Spartanburg - Woff

So Woff has the last 4 but that's 8-7 in favor of Woff since 2004 (I just chose that yr because it was in a column format in our notes.. it goes in our favor if you go back farther)

Anyway, to your point you were making to the Samford fan about SoCon playoff success, yes, FU has played in the National title game in 2001.. and had Deep runs to the semi-finals or close in 2004/2005. Honestly I think we were the best team out there in 2004 - and I am objective. We fumbled and had huge mistakes and lost by one pt to JMU at Furman (semi-final?). JMU then cruised to the national title after eeking out a win over us - we had a great OL w skill players of Ingle Martin, Jerome Felton (NFL Fullback and All-Pro for 8 years), Ike West and Brian Bratton (CFL receiver).

I do think it's funny when people say FU is living in the 80's... we played for the NATIONAL TITLE in 2001 which is more than any other current SoCon member has EVER done except Western? WCU played in the Title game in 83 and lost. National Runner up for WCU in 83.

Wofford has objectively been the most consistent lately for sure.

What we all need is for the SoCon (probably the 3rd best league?) to get a little better overall - this NDSU thing is ridiculous (and somewhat JMU)
By cannibalizing, I mean they got eliminated by a fellow Socon team, which limits our ability to show good we are as a conference in the playoffs.

[SU DOG]

Here let me help you with that


2 years ago, Samford finished 7-4, with only 6 d1 wins. Take away the Wofford win and they are 6-5 and not in the playoffs.
Samford finishes 8-3 last year with only 7 d1 wins. Take away the Wofford win and they are 7-4 and likely not in the playoffs.

Take those two games away, and Hatcher is .500 with no playoff games to botch. Wofford's turnovers and inability to defend an air raid offense is the only reason Hatcher has a job at this point. You're welcome.

Excuse me if I decline to offer a big THANK YOU. Samford has done much better in the conference in the 10 years than several other teams of longer tenure. I cannot defend our miserable season so far this year, and will not try to. The way it's going YT, you will probably be able to relieve some of what is appearing to be your obvious butt-hurt in about 4 weeks.
Carry on.

[SU DOG]

BTW, on my ballot, I have Samford out of the top 25, and I have Wofford at #6.
You're Welcome.

[longtimemocfan]

The best thing the Socon can ask of its members is the state schools/bigger schools (Mercer, ETSU, Chattanooga, Western Carolina) get up to a consistent level. I'm optimistic about ETSU (even if I'm skeptical of them *this year) and Mercer/Western are almost there. Say what you want about Chattanooga, even last year they were better than the dumpster fire of a program they were before Huesman, so I'd say they are the "closest" to that.

Wofford is fine as a program. Arguably, we're as or more talented than we've ever been. The only drawback may be the competition we play nowadays. We won the conference outright last season and I don't think that was even in the top 3 best teams we've fielded. Samford just doesn't have the consistency. Furman isn't "back" yet. VMI hasn't had a winning season since 1981. The Citadel is at the same (or better) level of respectable they always are.

I don't think the Socon is down, I just think playoff zoning has led us to cannibalize each other and the startup programs haven't shown consistency quite yet. Wofford's blow out loss to NDSU was the first playoff loss we had where we weren't competitive in the 4th quarter. Furman/the Citadel showed promise in the last couple years, but got cannibalized by Wofford. Chattanooga is only like 2 years removed from a playoff win (lots of teams can't say that). The only team that's really disappointed in the playoffs recently is Samford.Hey !! Really 1 year removed from the playoffs. It'll be 2 this year if we don't make it. Just not sure if we will anyway. Still have to improve a lot in several phases.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

BTW, on my ballot, I have Samford out of the top 25, and I have Wofford at #6.
You're Welcome.

To be clear, I want Samford to be as good as any non-Samford fan would be (it makes our recent losses and the Socon in general look better), but by all measure Samford's underachieving.

You make me look like an idiot in front of the MVFC fans when I say Hodges is one of the best QBs in the country and McKnight one of the best receivers when you lay an egg against Kennesaw twice.

[Reign of Terrier]

Hey !! Really 1 year removed from the playoffs. It'll be 2 this year if we don't make it. Just not sure if we will anyway. Still have to improve a lot in several phases.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

2016 was 2 years ago and the status of 2018 is TBD. I predict you'll make the playoffs this year if you finish 8-3, but that's a big if at this point. ETSU loss may look bad and I don't think you get in at 7-4.

[Reign of Terrier]

A couple other thoughts on Samford's offense.

The Bulldogs are putting up right around 450 yards a game, but do not score that many points. Highlighting my earlier post, you see that trend continuing down each year since Hatcher has been in Birmingham despite having more veteran offensive talent each season. If you take away the Shorter game (who, again, is terrible), Samford is near the top of the league in total offense but the bottom in scoring offense. They put up yards, but not points.

One of the valid criticisms of the air raid offense is that it struggles to operate without space. As the field gets smaller closer the the endzone, the vertical routes go away and defenses have less field to cover. The absence of a threatening running game then manifests itself where Samford still has to throw, but reduces the space in which to do it.

You can see that, a bit, in Samford's scoring this season. Of their 9 non-Shorter touchdowns, only 3 have come from inside 10 yards (2 yard rush v. FSU, 1 yard rush v. UTC, 1 yard pass v. KSU).

What's interesting, though, is that Fineran, Samford's kicker, has hit on 7 field goals this season (6 non-Shorter FGs). Of those field goals, only 1 (a 45 yarder against Mercer) came with the ball placed outside the 20 yard line. Two of his field goals came with the ball placed inside the 5.

So, when Samford scores a touchdown, it is usually from a distance of 10+ yards (in fact, all but two passing TDs this season are from 15+). They will get the ball in the redzone, as evidence by their field goal attempts from close distances, but do not seem to be converting touchdowns.

My guess is that Samford is moving the ball well between the 20s, but when the space constricts they are having a hard time putting it in the endzone (this isn't novel to Samford - the Atlanta Falcons are a prime example of difficulty scoring TDs from close range). You saw this manifest itself last year when Samford had the ball on WCU's three yard line and couldn't score. The talent is certainly there, but the Bulldogs are going to have to find ways to punch it in from close range.

My theory about this is that Hatcher probably had a run game in this system at Valdosta State, but at this level you can't find a decent running back for this system (much like it's hard to find receivers for option teams). So he's successful for the first couple years with a running back that wasn't recruited for the system, but when they graduate there is no running game and the rest of the system suffers.

[PaladinFan]

My theory about this is that Hatcher probably had a run game in this system at Valdosta State, but at this level you can't find a decent running back for this system (much like it's hard to find receivers for option teams). So he's successful for the first couple years with a running back that wasn't recruited for the system, but when they graduate there is no running game and the rest of the system suffers.

I recently read an article that had a compelling argument regarding the air raid, specifically as it related to the NFL. Of course, to talk about the air raid at the professional level, you have to talk about it at the college level.

The article mentioned that many air raid teams have weak defenses largely because strong defensive recruits and talented defensive coaches don't want to necessarily move to a program where the offense is such a heavy focus by the head coach.

I think the same theory applies to running backs. The issue with system offenses is that it can be difficult to recruit and attract certain types of players. How many top running back recruits, for instance, want to play in an offense that throws it 50+ times a game?

It's a similar issue you might see with, say, Wofford, who likely will never produce a top flight wide receiver. Guys that will willingly move to an option-based offense to play receiver know that they will spend most of their career blocking, not catching passes.

[Reign of Terrier]

I recently read an article that had a compelling argument regarding the air raid, specifically as it related to the NFL. Of course, to talk about the air raid at the professional level, you have to talk about it at the college level.

The article mentioned that many air raid teams have weak defenses largely because strong defensive recruits and talented defensive coaches don't want to necessarily move to a program where the offense is such a heavy focus by the head coach.

I think the same theory applies to running backs. The issue with system offenses is that it can be difficult to recruit and attract certain types of players. How many top running back recruits, for instance, want to play in an offense that throws it 50+ times a game?

It's a similar issue you might see with, say, Wofford, who likely will never produce a top flight wide receiver. Guys that will willingly move to an option-based offense to play receiver know that they will spend most of their career blocking, not catching passes.

Watch out for Wofford's TJ Luther this year. Dude can fly at wide out. Was originally recruited as DB but wanted to play receiver. So Wofford compromised.

That's the exception (and it may not be the exception, we don't know yet), but yeah I agree other than that.

[gofurman]

By cannibalizing, I mean they got eliminated by a fellow Socon team, which limits our ability to show good we are as a conference in the playoffs.

fair enough.

We will probably see that in the SoCon this year I suspect and I don't see more than 2 SoCon teams going to the playoffs. No 'big 3' as it used to be ... Need an 8-0 and two teams at 6-2/7-1 to force a possible three team playoff selection from the SoCon .. plus that 6-2 team might need a good win or so OOC - like Furman had last year (perhaps) as we had a close loss to Elon and a whoopin of Colgate by 30 in NY... and FU looked better by season's end winning 7 of the last 8.

But I don't think that happens for anyone this year. I see maybe two teams from SoCon going. At this point Woff and ?. But things do change in a hurry ! One weekend can change the whole shebang

[gofurman]

Watch out for Wofford's TJ Luther this year. Dude can fly at wide out. Was originally recruited as DB but wanted to play receiver. So Wofford compromised.

That's the exception (and it may not be the exception, we don't know yet), but yeah I agree other than that.

I was always surprised you had Bersin.. made the Panthers for 4 yrs ... is he still in the NFL?

[Reign of Terrier]

I was always surprised you had Bersin.. made the Panthers for 4 yrs ... is he still in the NFL?

Yeah, but he wasn't that special coming out of high school.

[wcugrad95]

Some stud WRs do go to triple option schools for some reason. Ga Tech has had a few, led by Calvin Johnson. But I agree - why do they go to schools that run the ball 90% of the time???

[PaladinFan]

Some stud WRs do go to triple option schools for some reason. Ga Tech has had a few, led by Calvin Johnson. But I agree - why do they go to schools that run the ball 90% of the time???

Calvin Johnson did play at Georgia Tech, but under Chan Gailey. Paul Johnson arrived after he left.

[SU DOG]

I recently read an article that had a compelling argument regarding the air raid, specifically as it related to the NFL. Of course, to talk about the air raid at the professional level, you have to talk about it at the college level.

The article mentioned that many air raid teams have weak defenses largely because strong defensive recruits and talented defensive coaches don't want to necessarily move to a program where the offense is such a heavy focus by the head coach.

I think the same theory applies to running backs. The issue with system offenses is that it can be difficult to recruit and attract certain types of players. How many top running back recruits, for instance, want to play in an offense that throws it 50+ times a game?

It's a similar issue you might see with, say, Wofford, who likely will never produce a top flight wide receiver. Guys that will willingly move to an option-based offense to play receiver know that they will spend most of their career blocking, not catching passes.

PF did that article mention something called "The Spiral Effect"? I seem to remember something like that stating that the issue with the defense of such teams, would get progressively worse over time.

[PaladinFan]

PF did that article mention something called "The Spiral Effect"? I seem to remember something like that stating that the issue with the defense of such teams, would get progressively worse over time.

Not that I recall, but you can read it here: https://www.theringer.com/2018/8/14/17685080/air-raid-offense-mike-leach-lincoln-riley

The author's underlying hypothesis is that the air raid, which is seen as gimmicky in the NFL, could work there because NFL teams do not have the same problems college teams would have; that is, there is no recruiting. So, the NFL could use the productive scheme while not sacrificing personnel or a defensive system (because they largely pick their players, not recruit them).


But the main reason Air Raid college teams tend to have bad defenses has nothing to do with those teams’ respective offenses. (Imagine someone arguing that an NFL team couldn’t have a good running game if it ran a base Cover-2 defense. That wouldn’t make sense, because those two things aren’t related.) Air Raid college teams tend to have bad defenses because when an NCAA program hires an Air Raid head coach, it is immediately presumed that program no longer cares about defense. And at the college level, those presumptions matter greatly.

[FUBeAR]

PF did that article mention something called "The Spiral Effect"? I seem to remember something like that stating that the issue with the defense of such teams, would get progressively worse over time.
You may heard it from FUBeAR, who heard it from an FBS DC. Theory is that they don’t get enough work during Spring & Pre-Season at stopping the run...which leads them to becoming “soft.” So, when they are playing Teams that also don’t run the ball or don’t run it well, they are fine...but when they face a Team that does (think Alabama or NDSU), they just can’t hold up.

Now...I wonder about the effects of 2 developments on this ‘axiom.’
1) Rise in number of other Teams that also can’t run the ball
2) Restrictions on hitting / number of practices

I think I could argue that either or both of these developments has exacerbated the issue AND I could also argue that they have ameliorated it.

So...I don’t know.

What I do know is that very few Teams from HS to (even) the NFL don’t win Championships very often if they can’t BOTH run the ball & stop the run.

But that too may change, eventually, due to never-ending rule changes that take hitting & the importance of ‘Trench’ play out of the game.

[gofurman]

Calvin Johnson did play at Georgia Tech, but under Chan Gailey. Paul Johnson arrived after he left.

correct, I mistakenly thought they got calvin while running the option too. But I think P Johnson inherited C Johnson as PaladnFan says.

That said, Demaryius Thomas also played under Paul Johnson at GT !! Two of the best receivers in the game! But Thomas may have already been there. not sure, it was close. I think Paul Johnson came to GT in 2008? Demaryius was in the draft around 2010? So maybe Demaryius was already at GT too

[gofurman]

Yeah, but he wasn't that special coming out of high school.

(Bersin) - well that was good talent evaluation on Wofford's part then. Not sure what he did at Wofford (stats?) but if he made the NFL he musta developed sometime in college. Good talent evalutaion there. Man, a FU guy being nice w a Woff guy. Next thing we will have cats sleeping w dogs.. LOL

I will be very interested in your UTC game tomorro

[wcugrad95]

correct, I mistakenly thought they got calvin while running the option too. But I think P Johnson inherited C Johnson as PaladnFan says.

That said, Demaryius Thomas also played under Paul Johnson at GT !! Two of the best receivers in the game! But Thomas may have already been there. not sure, it was close. I think Paul Johnson came to GT in 2008? Demaryius was in the draft around 2010? So maybe Demaryius was already at GT too

I actually meant Thomas (brain fart - I knew Johnson was earlier because he had some big-catch seasons). But I went back and looked and Thomas was a Gailey recruit who played 1 year under him then decided to stay at GT. He did have 39 and then 46 catches under Johnson's TO offense.

[longtimemocfan]

2016 was 2 years ago and the status of 2018 is TBD. I predict you'll make the playoffs this year if you finish 8-3, but that's a big if at this point. ETSU loss may look bad and I don't think you get in at 7-4.Ok I'll agree 2016 was two years ago, but technically it's only been 2 years we would be removed from the playoffs if we don't make it this year. 2016- playoff team. 2017- No playoffs. 2018- TBD. I agree 8-3 would get us in. Beating you guys would help a lot. The way things look unless someone gets hot it could be a one bid season for the SoCon. If we don't learn to put 2 halves together we'll be lucky to get to 7-4.

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[PaladinFan]

correct, I mistakenly thought they got calvin while running the option too. But I think P Johnson inherited C Johnson as PaladnFan says.

That said, Demaryius Thomas also played under Paul Johnson at GT !! Two of the best receivers in the game! But Thomas may have already been there. not sure, it was close. I think Paul Johnson came to GT in 2008? Demaryius was in the draft around 2010? So maybe Demaryius was already at GT too

Calvin Johnson was in the NFL before Johnson was named head coach at GT.

Demaryius Thomas did play under Johnson, but was recruited by Gailey. Thomas was a Sophomore when Johnson arrived.

[walliver]

Sammy up 21-0 after 6 minutes of play.

We must have gotten Hatch excited.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford wins 21-10, but leaves some points on the field. Wofford has eclipsed 500 yards 3 times this year. We had only done that once between 2013 and 2017.

Meanwhile, Wofford's defense is still a score better than last year. If we can clean up some mistakes (turnovers, leaving points on the field), we can be a good football team.

[ETSUfan1]

ETSU up 38-0. Late 4th.

[ETSUfan1]

[LIST=1]

Gardner-Webb at ETSU – Bucs will have a hangover from the last win, and will possibly overlook the Runnin’ Bulldogs. Trap game. Runnin’ Bulldogs by 3.

LOL

[ElCid]

LOL

They could have. I thought they might lag as well. Good on them that they didn't.

[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU has impressed me. Huge game next week. They are the number 2 right now. They earned.

Also I think they have the best home field advantage in the socon

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[FUGameBreaker]

Wofford wins 21-10, but leaves some points on the field. Wofford has eclipsed 500 yards 3 times this year. We had only done that once between 2013 and 2017.

Meanwhile, Wofford's defense is still a score better than last year. If we can clean up some mistakes (turnovers, leaving points on the field), we can be a good football team.



You will lose next Saturday xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

It'll be our pleasure to once again crush your hopes and dreams
You will lose next Saturday xthumbsupx

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[gofurman]

It'll be our pleasure to once again crush your hopes and dreams

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There is nothing to crush. We are an ok team in a rebuild year. I think Hendrix ( I think you would agree) has shown real promise . Taking a three win team w same players in first year to being an 8 win team and playoffs.

Furman is Just too young right now. And yet I bet Wofford doesn't feel real comfortable in this FU game for a while. And then the SoCon gets crushed in the quarterfinals or so of the playoffs ...:(