An early look into the playoffs

[BisonTru]

So I put together a spreadsheet using Massey. Whether you like Massey or not they do have a cool feature predicting the estimated wins remaining. With that, we know there is a concrete rule (it's written in the selection committees guidelines) that a team must get 6 D1 wins to be considered. We also know that not many 6 win teams have made it in, and the ones that have had a great resume otherwise. So the spreadsheet has the estimated total D1 wins for every team. I predicted 12 of the 14 at large selections. So the bubble would be the remaining 2 spots. Here it is.....

Blue = 8+ wins, Green = 7 wins, Yellow = 6 wins, Red = <6 wins



Massey Ranked

D1 Wins
Wins Remaining
Losses Remaining
Estimated Wins
My Prediction


N Dakota StMissouri Valley
3-01.000
3
7.11
0.89
10.11
MVFC Auto


James MadisonColonial
3-10.750
3
6.46
0.54
9.46
CAA Auto


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
2-01.000
2
5.74
2.26
7.74
At Large


Weber StBig Sky
3-10.750
3
5.37
1.63
8.37
Big Sky Auto


Illinois StMissouri Valley
3-01.000
2
4.82
3.18
6.82
At Large


E WashingtonBig Sky
3-10.750
2
4.86
2.14
6.86
At Large


UC DavisBig Sky
3-10.750
3
4.55
2.45
7.55
At Large


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
1-20.333
1
4.43
3.57
5.43
Out


VillanovaColonial
3-10.750
3
3.65
3.35
6.65
At Large


MontanaBig Sky
3-10.750
3
4.65
2.35
7.65
At Large


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
1-20.333
1
4.46
3.54
5.46
Out


South DakotaMissouri Valley
1-20.333
1
4.29
3.71
5.29
Out


Stony BrookColonial
3-10.750
3
4.02
2.98
7.02
At Large


Montana StBig Sky
3-10.750
3
3.89
3.11
6.89
At Large


TowsonColonial
2-10.667
2
4.15
3.85
6.15
Bubble


MaineColonial
2-10.667
2
4.57
3.43
6.57
At Large


ElonColonial
2-10.667
2
3.28
3.72
5.28
Out


Cent ArkansasSouthland
2-10.667
2
6.44
1.56
8.44
Southland Auto


WoffordSouthern
2-10.667
2
6.03
1.97
8.03
Southern Auto


ChattanoogaSouthern
4-01.000
4
3.77
3.23
7.77
At Large


McNeese StSouthland
3-10.750
3
5.29
1.71
8.29
At Large


ColgatePatriot League
3-01.000
3
5.2
1.8
8.2
Patroit Auto


Rhode IslandColonial
2-10.667
2
4.09
3.91
6.09
Bubble


CS SacramentoBig Sky
2-20.500
1
4.13
2.87
5.13
Out


DelawareColonial
2-20.500
2
3.79
3.21
5.79
Bubble


Nicholls StSouthland
2-20.500
2
5.84
1.16
7.84
At Large


IdahoBig Sky
1-20.333
0
4.03
3.97
4.03
Out


RichmondColonial
2-20.500
2
3.38
3.62
5.38
Out


Jacksonville StOH Valley
2-10.667
2
6.27
1.73
8.27
OVC Auto


Missouri StMissouri Valley
2-10.667
1
2.32
5.68
3.32
Out


KennesawBig South
3-10.750
2
5.52
1.48
7.52
Big South Auto


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
1-20.333
1
3.21
4.79
4.21
Out


NC A&TMid-Eastern AC
3-10.750
3
6.37
0.63
9.37
Bubble


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
2-20.500
2
3.29
3.71
5.29
Out


Idaho StBig Sky
2-10.667
2
3.3
4.7
5.3
Out


MercerSouthern
2-20.500
2
4.07
2.93
6.07
Bubble


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
1-20.333
1
2.56
5.44
3.56
Out


North DakotaBig Sky
2-20.500
2
2.53
4.47
4.53
Out


CitadelSouthern
1-20.333
1
4.19
3.81
5.19
Out


Sam Houston StSouthland
1-20.333
1
5.96
2.04
6.96
Bubble


New HampshireColonial
0-30.000
0
3.29
4.71
3.29
Out


SamfordSouthern
1-30.250
0
4.25
2.75
4.25
Out


SE LouisianaSouthland
1-30.250
1
4.29
2.71
5.29
Out


Albany NYColonial
2-20.500
2
2.19
4.81
4.19
Out


Southern UtahBig Sky
0-40.000
0
3.1
3.9
3.1
Out


TN MartinOH Valley
1-30.250
1
4.61
2.39
5.61
Bubble


FurmanSouthern
0-30.000
0
4.06
2.94
4.06
Out


W CarolinaSouthern
3-01.000
2
2.57
5.43
4.57
Out


William & MaryColonial
1-20.333
1
2.01
4.99
3.01
Out


SE Missouri StOH Valley
2-20.500
2
3.97
3.03
5.97
Bubble


Tennessee StOH Valley
2-01.000
2
2.94
4.06
4.94
Out

[BisonTru]

Here is the conference breakdown. The MVFC would only be getting 3 teams in, but would only have 3 teams with 6+ wins.




At Large bids
On the Bubble


MVFC
2



CAA
3
3


Big Sky
4



Southern
1
1


Southland
2
1


OVC
0
2


MEAC
0
1

[Southern Bison]

Is this your "excuse" for not showing up or returning texts yesterday?

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[BisonTru]

I'd also guess in this scenario that Sam Houston would take the 13th at large. With NC A&T if eligible taking the 14th spot. Towson would take their spot if they win their conference.

[BisonTru]

Is this your "excuse" for not showing up or returning texts yesterday?

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You might want to spread your wings and find some new obsessions.

[Southern Bison]

You might want to spread your wings and find some new obsessions.You might want to grow a ****ing pair and stop hiding behind your keyboard.

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[kalm]

You might want to grow a ****ing pair and stop hiding behind your keyboard.

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Look..we get it that your feelings and longing for BTru are constantly hurt on the poli board, but get your obsessive **** out of here. It’s a good football topic that doesn’t require your emotion.

[Southern Bison]

Look..we get it that your feelings and longing for BTru are constantly hurt on the poli board, but get your obsessive **** out of here. It’s a good football topic that doesn’t require your emotion.**** off, Kalm...you don't know **** and this is well beyond the poli board. This is about human integrity. He's shown his true colors and many posters on here know mine. I will not stand for someone to be as much of an asshole to AGS friends of mine (from many schools) as he has been and then proclaim innocence. I call a POS out for their actions.

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[jmu007]

I feel like I missed something. However, this NFL game sucks and I've got time. So carry on....

[StrikeJMU]

**** off, Kalm...you don't know **** and this is well beyond the poli board. This is about human integrity. He's shown his true colors and many posters on here know mine. I will not stand for someone to be as much of an asshole to AGS friends of mine (from many schools) as he has been and then proclaim innocence. I call a POS out for their actions.

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Already better than the Shatner Roast.

[kalm]

**** off, Kalm...you don't know **** and this is well beyond the poli board. This is about human integrity. He's shown his true colors and many posters on here know mine. I will not stand for someone to be as much of an asshole to AGS friends of mine (from many schools) as he has been and then proclaim innocence. I call a POS out for their actions.

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I’m sorry to tell you but no one really gives two ****s about your petty feelings and butt hurt on the football board other than I suppose a few equally offended sidekicks.

PM your grievances or quit the board.

[kalm]

Btw...Colgate and Weber State’s numbers are intriguing. This will only get better as the season goes on.

[BEAR]

*threaddrift thread material. xlolx

[Southern Bison]

I’m sorry but blah, (blaze up) blah, (inhale) blah, blah, blah, blah, (exhale) blah, blah.

I don't care about a poster being an asshole so you should leave the website.

FYP

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[kalm]

FYP

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Oh noooo’s! Was someone an asshole to you? Did they talk smack or not show up at a picnic????

Grow up.

[Southern Bison]

Oh noooo’s! Was someone an asshole to you? Did they talk smack or not show up at a picnic????

Grow up.So you don't believe in integrity (in person or on AGS)...got it.

I've got no problem if someone is an asshole...that was his choice. But I'll call them out for it if they hide behind their keyboard.

You can PM me to take this offline.

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[cx500d]

Already better than the Shatner Roast.


Shatner? Damn near killed her.

[JacksFan40]

Just an SDSU fan who’s satisfied with the playoff picture strolling through. xlolx

[cx500d]

Just an SDSU fan who’s satisfied with the playoff picture strolling through. xlolx


I see three certain losses for you, with one potential trap game turning into a loss.

[kalm]

So you don't believe in integrity (in person or on AGS)...got it.

I've got no problem if someone is an asshole...that was his choice. But I'll call them out for it if they hide behind their keyboard.

You can PM me to take this offline.

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Seriously wtf?

I asked why you were all so obsessed with Btru a year ago and the explanations were something to the effect of...he’s mean, lacks integrity, won’t meet with us, says hurtful things that I politically disagree with....etc. I’m sure that bastard has piled on since then and further hurt feelings. He’s clearly a big meanie and ne’er do well,

All of which no one gives a flying **** about on the football message board.

So take your giant forlorn ball and leave it off this here most excellent football forum.

[katss07]

Calling it now, elimination game in Huntsville this weekend. Winner gets into the playoffs. Loser doesn’t make it. SLC is a three bid conference. McNeese, Nicholls should be in. Game this weekend determines the rest! Just IMHO.

[Southern Bison]

Seriously wtf?

I asked why you were all so obsessed with Btru a year ago and the explanations were something to the effect of...he’s mean, lacks integrity, won’t meet with us, says hurtful things that I politically disagree with....etc. I’m sure that bastard has piled on since then and further hurt feelings. He’s clearly a big meanie and ne’er do well,

All of which no one gives a flying **** about on the football message board.

So take your giant forlorn ball and leave it off this here most excellent football forum.When you learn some value some personal integrity in every word you say or type, then you can reply to my posts on AGS.

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[kalm]

When you learn some value some personal integrity in every word you say or type, then you can reply to my posts on AGS.

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Okee dokee.

(Btw, I just replied to your post on AGS)

Smooches...

[Southern Bison]

Okee dokee.

(Btw, I just replied to your post on AGS)

Smooches...Congrats on proving my point...and you can kiss my ass.

(Unlike BitchyTru, I'll tell you that to your face if we ever meet)

And I told you we could take this offline...but you didn't.

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[BisonTru]

Btw...Colgate and Weber State’s numbers are intriguing. This will only get better as the season goes on.

I guess I'm not following the intrigue with Weber state unless you are talking about them getting the auto or not. I guess for this experiment I really didn't care so much about figuring out the autos, but moreso just the bubble.

Colgate if they miss the auto, could slip in as an at large although I'd put them firmly in the bubble. Losing to any other team in the Patriot league looks like a bad loss right now.

[AggiePride]

This place used to be so chill before the herd **** all over the place.

[TheKingpin28]

This place used to be so chill before the herd **** all over the place.Clearly you must have missed every Decembrist and/or Georgia Southern fan.

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[grizband]

This place used to be so chill before the herd **** all over the place.


Clearly you must have missed every Decembrist and/or Georgia Southern fan.

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San Diego...hahaha

[melloware13]

I guess I'm not following the intrigue with Weber state unless you are talking about them getting the auto or not. I guess for this experiment I really didn't care so much about figuring out the autos, but moreso just the bubble.

Colgate if they miss the auto, could slip in as an at large although I'd put them firmly in the bubble. Losing to any other team in the Patriot league looks like a bad loss right now.
Right now Colgate is at 3-0, a loss in conference would put them at best 8-1 going into West Point with a bad loss. 8-2 with a bad loss and not winning a weak conference shouldn't get in (FCS OOC games for them are New Hampshire, William & Mary, and Cornell)

[ElCid]

Btw...Colgate and Weber State’s numbers are intriguing. This will only get better as the season goes on.

I'm liking Colgate right now. Saw them play Saturday and they looked real good even it it was Lafayette. They were actually on TV down here. I think Furman would have had its hands full without Florence. We always seem to get an odd FCS game on an odd sports channel. Pretty cool.

[BisonTru]

Right now Colgate is at 3-0, a loss in conference would put them at best 8-1 going into West Point with a bad loss. 8-2 with a bad loss and not winning a weak conference shouldn't get in (FCS OOC games for them are New Hampshire, William & Mary, and Cornell)

Well how this plays out, they are competing with a 7 win Sammy team that might not have any quality wins either. Or a Towson team with only 6 wins. I'd say Towson deserves the spot, but the committee doesn't always see it that way.

[JSUSoutherner]

Here is the conference breakdown. The MVFC would only be getting 3 teams in, but would only have 3 teams with 6+ wins.




At Large bids
On the Bubble


MVFC
2



CAA
3
3


Big Sky
4



Southern
1
1


Southland
2
1


OVC
0
2


MEAC
0
1




I know you're basing it off the Massey numbers but I'd argue the only bubble team left in OVC. It's either going to be TSU, SEMO, EKU, or APSU. There's not enough room to finish the season with two possibly on the bubble.


So you don't believe in integrity (in person or on AGS)...got it.

I've got no problem if someone is an asshole...that was his choice. But I'll call them out for it if they hide behind their keyboard.

You can PM me to take this offline.

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I only see one asshole here.

It's amazing it's been this long and you still haven't figured out BT trolls you so much because you're easy. But w/e. Thanks for trying to derail a good thread I guess?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Congrats on proving my point...and you can kiss my ass.

(Unlike BitchyTru, I'll tell you that to your face if we ever meet)

And I told you we could take this offline...but you didn't.

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I've warned you enough about f'n with the FCS board and bringing this petty poli board tough guy **** over here. If you can't control yourself on here then you force me to do it. It's really not too much fun for me but so be it. You probably ain't gonna see this unless you logoff but you are done here for a while and I also warned of even coming close to the fringes of threatening people here ever again and it sure looks to me like you have done that. Nobody needs you to stick up for them. You were never appointed AGS regulator.

[BisonTru]

I know you're basing it off the Massey numbers but I'd argue the only bubble team left in OVC. It's either going to be TSU, SEMO, EKU, or APSU. There's not enough room to finish the season with two possibly on the bubble.



I'd agree.

I kind of just cut it off where I did. No real reason outside of I thought any teams further down on Massey aren't really in consideration. With that being said both OVC squads on the bubble are six win teams and six wins is the cut off to be considered by the committee. However, the bare minimum isn't going to cut it for an OVC team outside maybe JSU with their history. Although with a few OVC teams pegged at 6 wins, if one of them can do a little better than expected and get to 7+ wins they have a shot.

[JSUSoutherner]

I'd agree.

I kind of just cut it off where I did. No real reason outside of I thought any teams further down on Massey aren't really in consideration. With that being said both OVC squads on the bubble are six win teams and six wins is the cut off to be considered by the committee. However, the bare minimum isn't going to cut it for an OVC team outside maybe JSU with their history. Although with a few OVC teams pegged at 6 wins, if one of them can do a little better than expected and get to 7+ wins they have a shot.

Honestly the only way I think a team has a realistic shot at an At-large out of the OVC is if their only loss is to us. We saw APSU on the bubble last year in that scenario but their scheduling did them in.

Thinking about it now, you could probably eliminate EKU considering they already have two FBS losses. TSU is looking at a possible 7-2 season so that may be interesting to see how the committee handles that. I'd argue that TSU would have won their two cancelled games anyway just based off of their historical performances.

SEMO is interesting because if SIU does decently in the Valley it could really bump their stock. They could possibly be 8-2 vs FCS.

APSU is going to have to donkey stomp teams at this point. That UTM loss was baadddddd.

[mvemjsunpx]

I'm liking Colgate right now. Saw them play Saturday and they looked real good even it it was Lafayette. They were actually on TV down here. I think Furman would have had its hands full without Florence. We always seem to get an odd FCS game on an odd sports channel. Pretty cool.

Fun fact!: Colgate has as many wins as the rest of the Patriot League combined. xlolx

[Derby City Duke]

Honestly the only way I think a team has a realistic shot at an At-large out of the OVC is if their only loss is to us. We saw APSU on the bubble last year in that scenario but their scheduling did them in.

Thinking about it now, you could probably eliminate EKU considering they already have two FBS losses. TSU is looking at a possible 7-2 season so that may be interesting to see how the committee handles that. I'd argue that TSU would have won their two cancelled games anyway just based off of their historical performances.

SEMO is interesting because if SIU does decently in the Valley it could really bump their stock. They could possibly be 8-2 vs FCS.

APSU is going to have to donkey stomp teams at this point. That UTM loss was baadddddd.

I was at the EKU/SEMO game this weekend. Neither team looked very good to me. QBs couldn't hit receivers (the SEMO QB threw 3 horrendous picks; his 4th INT was a ball his own receiver tipped up in the air). EKU's running game looked ok, but overall they are undisciplined (lost a player to a targeting call -- double forearm chuck to the QB's facemask well after the ball was released - pretty good defender who will miss the 1st half next week). Didn't see much from either team to make me think they'd be competitive on Thanksgiving weekend.

JSU should boat race both teams

[JacksFan40]

I see three certain losses for you, with one potential trap game turning into a loss.
Every game is a trap game for SDSU, you never know when we’re going to lay an egg. Probably Hobo Days.

[Gangtackle11]

Fun fact!: Colgate has as many wins as the rest of the Patriot League combined. xlolx

This is sad, but true. I looked after Nova took an undermanned Bucknell team to the woodshed.

Colgate 3-0
Rest of PL 3-21

[ElonFirefighter]

Fun fact!: Colgate has as many wins as the rest of the Patriot League combined. xlolx


Another fun fact Colgate is my toothpaste of choice!!!

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=28970&stc=1

[VUCats02]

Nova's next 3 weeks @Stony Brook @ Maine home to James Madison is just brutal. It's going to be tough to make that out alive. They will be underdogs in each of those games, which is pretty crazy for a team that's top 10-15 in the country!

[BEAR]

Calling it now, elimination game in Huntsville this weekend. Winner gets into the playoffs. Loser doesn’t make it. SLC is a three bid conference. McNeese, Nicholls should be in. Game this weekend determines the rest! Just IMHO.

We will have had two weeks to prepare for the Bearkats. With the way you guys have played lately plus the time off if we don't win, we don't deserve to go. But again it would just show how much we had to rebuild if that's the case. No biggie. Not sure if we'd make noise in the playoffs anyway.

[ysubigred]

Every game is a trap game for SDSU, you never know when we’re going to lay an egg. Probably Hobo Days.

I hope so xthumbsupx

[JacksFan40]

I hope so xthumbsupx
I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost, but SDSU doesn’t lose 2 years in a row to teams not named NDSU, so I’m not sure what to think.

[hoidOfYolen]

Tom's of Maine master race

[ysubigred]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost, but SDSU doesn’t lose 2 years in a row to teams not named NDSU, so I’m not sure what to think.

I see this going two ways,,

YSU win's in a close one OR SDSU 48-7 xdrunkyx

[katss07]

UT Martin has forced themselves into the playoff conversation. Dominant win over the Governers. Big game between the Cocks and Peay regardless this weekend, but I think UT Martin might be the biggest threat to JSU now. The parts of the game I watched Martin looked dominant.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Here is the conference breakdown. The MVFC would only be getting 3 teams in, but would only have 3 teams with 6+ wins.




At Large bids
On the Bubble


MVFC
2



CAA
3
3


Big Sky
4



Southern
1
1


Southland
2
1


OVC
0
2


MEAC
0
1



problem with Massey probabilty % estimator in conference like MVFC this year is so many games are in toss up category ... so assume most NDSU and SDSU games are closer to 100% losses, then the rest are closer to 50% wins .. especially with MoST and ISUb showing a pulse this year, combined with UNI and YSU slow starts .. bunch of teams in middle getting lot of half wins in 6 remaining games after projected losses to NDSU and SDSU ... so I assume there are a lot of teams projecting around 3 or 4 MVFC wins.

[ElCid]

problem with Massey probabilty % estimator in conference like MVFC this year is so many games are in toss up category ... so assume most NDSU and SDSU games are closer to 100% losses, then the rest are closer to 50% wins .. especially with MoST and ISUb showing a pulse this year, combined with UNI and YSU slow starts .. bunch of teams in middle getting lot of half wins in 6 remaining games after projected losses to NDSU and SDSU ... so a lot of teams projecting around 3 or 4 MVFC wins.

This is spot on. The total expected wins is nothing more than sum of the percentages. Not out the window, but can easily be off at least one win and maybe two. Still early.

[JacksFan40]

I see this going two ways,,

YSU win's in a close one OR SDSU 48-7 xdrunkyx
I could see YSU pulling a UNI from last years Hobo Days and winning 38-18. Holy hell was that game bad.

[Thumper 76]

I could see YSU pulling a UNI from last years Hobo Days and winning 38-18. Holy hell was that game bad.

Ugh, it was brutal. Hope the weather is at least a smidge nicer


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[Reign of Terrier]

The very flawed Massey algorithm (due to incomplete information) has Wofford favored (at least slightly) in the remaining games this year.

Yikes.

[BisonTru]

problem with Massey probabilty % estimator in conference like MVFC this year is so many games are in toss up category ... so assume most NDSU and SDSU games are closer to 100% losses, then the rest are closer to 50% wins .. especially with MoST and ISUb showing a pulse this year, combined with UNI and YSU slow starts .. bunch of teams in middle getting lot of half wins in 6 remaining games after projected losses to NDSU and SDSU ... so I assume there are a lot of teams projecting around 3 or 4 MVFC wins.

I don't see this as a problem with Massey. This is a problem for the MVFC. This conference has beat up on each other in the past often and this year looks very similar where a bunch of teams look pretty good. I think it's really likely that once you get past the top 2 or 3 the rest will just coin flip thru the conference season. Which leaves a lot of teams 4-4 or 3-5 in the conference season and for many that puts them south of 6 D1 wins.

Actually now that I went back and looked. NDSU has 3 D1 wins. SDSU and ISUr both have 2 D1 wins. The rest of the conference only has 1 D1 win. So any of those teams will have to go 5-3 in conference to even get considered. Even SDSU and ISUr will need to go 4-4 to be considered.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't see this as a problem with Massey. This is a problem for the MVFC. This conference has beat up on each other in the past often and this year looks very similar where a bunch of teams look pretty good. I think it's really likely that once you get past the top 2 or 3 the rest will just coin flip thru the conference season. Which leaves a lot of teams 4-4 or 3-5 in the conference season and for many that puts them south of 6 D1 wins.

Actually now that I went back and looked. NDSU has 3 D1 wins. SDSU and ISUr both have 2 D1 wins. The rest of the conference only has 1 D1 win. So any of those teams will have to go 5-3 in conference to even get considered. Even SDSU and ISUr will need to go 4-4 to be considered.
good point about actual OOC results on top of expected MVFC results and parity issue. I was only making mathematical point about remaining games with all the half wins.

[cx500d]

I see three certain losses for you, with one potential trap game turning into a loss.
Oh how prophetic this is starting to look like.....