FCS over FBS: impact on Poll Ranking?

[Catatonic]

A majority of FCS v FBS games take place early in the season when polls are most fluid. After all, preseason polls are based on conjecture and guess work once you get beyond the top handful of teams.

So how much of an impact on the polls is there if an unranked FCS team knocks off a P5 team that’s a prohibitive favorite? Or if a team ranked in the bottom half of the FCS top 25 beats a P5 team at the beginning of the season?

For example, what if unranked Northwestern State beats Texas A&M in the season opener? How does beating a SEC team that is a 40 plus point favorite translate into poll points the following week?

How about if Austin Peay whallops Georgia between the hedges? Does Austin Peay jump up to the top echelon of the polls?

These are are just a couple of examples of FCS v P5 games to be played early on. The odds of even one such upset are slim....but it’s still preseason when all things are possible. I’m just curious to know how such improbable wins should be viewed by pollsters.

[mmiller_34]

A majority of FCS v FBS games take place early in the season when polls are most fluid. After all, preseason polls are based on conjecture and guess work once you get beyond the top handful of teams.

So how much of an impact on the polls is there if an unranked FCS team knocks off a P5 team that’s a prohibitive favorite? Or if a team ranked in the bottom half of the FCS top 25 beats a P5 team at the beginning of the season?

For example, what if unranked Northwestern State beats Texas A&M in the season opener? How does beating a SEC team that is a 40 plus point favorite translate into poll points the following week?

How about if Austin Peay whallops Georgia between the hedges? Does Austin Peay jump up to the top echelon of the polls?

These are are just a couple of examples of FCS v P5 games to be played early on. The odds of even one such upset are slim....but it’s still preseason when all things are possible. I’m just curious to know how such improbable wins should be viewed by pollsters.

There is a strong impact. Even a few years ago when SDSU just beat Kansas we jumped about 10 spots. I think we got a bigger jump when we went toe-to-toe with #13 TCU through 3 1/2 quarters though.

If Austin Peay wallops Georgia they will immediately be top 5 (or at least top 10). That one random year that Portland State beat two FBS teams (1 terrible one and one decent) that gave them a nice boost for the rest of the season too. It was warranted too, PSU was a good team that year (ended 9-3). They must maintain that level of play to keep that ranking.

South Dakota beat Minnesota in 2010 and gave them a decent boost at the beginning of the season (Unranked to #20 by week 3 of AGS Poll) then back to unranked after week 4. South Dakota ended the season 4-7 that year.

[JacksFan40]

There is a strong impact. Even a few years ago when SDSU just beat Kansas we jumped about 10 spots. I think we got a bigger jump when we went toe-to-toe with #13 TCU through 3 1/2 quarters though.

If Austin Peay wallops Georgia they will immediately be top 5 (or at least top 10). That one random year that Portland State beat two FBS teams (1 terrible one and one decent) that gave them a nice boost for the rest of the season too. It was warranted too, PSU was a good team that year (ended 9-3). They must maintain that level of play to keep that ranking.

South Dakota beat Minnesota in 2010 and gave them a decent boost at the beginning of the season (Unranked to #20 by week 3 of AGS Poll) then back to unranked after week 4. South Dakota ended the season 4-7 that year.
If APSU wallops Georgia they’d be Top 3 at worst. I’d put them at 1 if they can beat the Runner Ups from last year.

[Catatonic]

What about an unranked team beating an unranked P5 team, as in the other example I cited— Northwestern La. State over Texas A&M, or any of a dozen other examples?

[Go Green]

Did Howard get ranked after beating UNLV last year?

[Catatonic]

Did Howard get ranked after beating UNLV last year?

I dunno. Beating any FBS program is noteworthy, but Not the same as beating a school from a power 5 conference. Beating A bad Kansas team from the B12 should give a FCS team more of a boost in the polls than picking up a W against a FBS team from one of the non-power conferences. no?

[FUBeAR]

A close win over a Slum Belt Team could, actually, be reason to drop an FCS Team in the rankings.

Lookin’ at you, Kennesaw!

[UpstateBison]

I dunno. Beating any FBS program is noteworthy, but Not the same as beating a school from a power 5 conference. Beating A bad Kansas team from the B12 should give a FCS team more of a boost in the polls than picking up a W against a FBS team from one of the non-power conferences. no?

UNLV, Kansas and ECU are FBS in name only. Would they be in the AGS Top 25?

[katss07]

I think it depends on the FBS opponent. You’ll tend to see teams move up in the polls even if the keep it close with P5 teams. But a team like Southeastern Louisiana won’t get voted in if they beat ULM. UCA didn’t make a huge jump when they beat Arkansas St if I remember correctly. It all depends on the FBS opponent.

[Mike296]

It really depends on the opponent, NDSU beating Iowa a few years ago solidified their being #1 in FCS. JMU beating Va Tech years ago surely raised their ranking at the time. If APSU can miraculously beat last years runner up, that surely will propel us into the top 10. If we can somehow get through the season after that unscathed, I’d say we’d be rivaling NDSU and JMU for Top 2 spit no doubt. That won’t happen though so I’m not too worried about it.


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[JSUSoutherner]

If APSU wallops Georgia they’d be Top 3 at worst. I’d put them at 1 if they can beat the Runner Ups from last year.

Who would have thought three years ago we'd be considering the possibility of Austin Peay winning a game? Let alone winning in Athens?

[semobison]

Who would have thought three years ago we'd be considering the possibility of Austin Peay winning a game? Let alone winning in Athens?

Who is considering AP beating Georgia? It was hypothetical! I'd put there chances it at about 0.01%!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

UNLV, Kansas and ECU are FBS in name only. Would they be in the AGS Top 25?

ECU has a chance to turn things around. They're traditionally a pretty solid FBS program that has completely fallen off a cliff the last 2-3 years. I'm certain they'll pull themselves out of their current rut. The question is when....

[JSUSoutherner]

Who is considering AP beating Georgia? It was hypothetical! I'd put there chances it at about 0.01%!

I know it hypothetical. But someone with even a hypothetical consideration such as this three years ago would have gotten laughed off the board.

[JacksFan40]

I know it hypothetical. But someone with even a hypothetical consideration such as this three years ago would have gotten laughed off the board.
Somebody who thought AP would come within 30 would’ve been laughed at.

[Catatonic]

.
I know it hypothetical. But someone with even a hypothetical consideration such as this three years ago would have gotten laughed off the board.

That was before Nicholls State almost beat the Dawgs in Athens town. Nicholls was considered one of the worst teams in the Southland at the time. Now, even the highly improbable seems possible.

[Catatonic]

I’ll answer my own questions: if Austin Peay beats UGA, AP moves to my top 5.Maybe higher depending on how other teams fare. If NWSU knocks off the Aggies in College Station, they will land somewhere in the 10-15 range, although I’d be tempted to vote them as number 1 for pulling off an upset over the Tex Ags, whose HC makes more than the combined salary of the entire Dept of Athletics at NWSU.

The same principle applies to other FCS-P5 match ups, although Nicholls knocking off Kansas won’t get them the same bump as Austin Pea over Georgia.

[Reign of Terrier]

Y'all can correct me if I'm wrong because I don't have close FCS-FBS games memorized, but I feel like I remember that teams that beat a no-name G5 team get more love than teams that play relatively competitive (i.e not demolished) by a P5 team.

In my opinion that's BS.

[RootinFerDukes]

Did Howard get ranked after beating UNLV last year?

They did get an excessively generous bounce last year. I doubt anyone would’ve had them in the top 100 preseason. By beating a perennial bottom dweller in UNLV, they were able to move into the top 25?

Sorry, I give teams an FBS win bump but not 75+ spots.

[RootinFerDukes]

A close win over a Slum Belt Team could, actually, be reason to drop an FCS Team in the rankings.

Lookin’ at you, Kennesaw!

I would tend to agree but remember GSU was a 7 win team last year. They’re not as bad as they typically are.

With that being said, I expect kennesaw to win if they’re truly legit.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

It is equally justified to ask if a win over a DII team supported a team getting into the FCS Playoffs? If a team beats a team that was previously the DII NC, does it hold any weight?

Absolutely imo

If Temple beats a Top 10 Villanova team it's a better win than beating a 2-10 FBS Buffalo. Likewise for FCS vs. D2....

[RootinFerDukes]

I’ll answer my own questions: if Austin Peay beats UGA, AP moves to my top 5.Maybe higher depending on how other teams fare. If NWSU knocks off the Aggies in College Station, they will land somewhere in the 10-15 range, although I’d be tempted to vote them as number 1 for pulling off an upset over the Tex Ags, whose HC makes more than the combined salary of the entire Dept of Athletics at NWSU.

The same principle applies to other FCS-P5 match ups, although Nicholls knocking off Kansas won’t get them the same bump as Austin Pea over Georgia.

Part of what you have to ask yourself is, “would team X beat team Y ranked ahead of them, head to head right now?”. If you can’t see NW State beating NDSU, then they can’t be #1.

[Catatonic]

Part of what you have to ask yourself is, “would team X beat team Y ranked ahead of them, head to head right now?”. If you can’t see NW State beating NDSU, then they can’t be #1.

i know that and I wouldn’t actually vote them number one, but I’d like to do so not because of who they are but because of what they would have accomplished...knocking the haughty Ags of their pedestal.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

i know that and I wouldn’t acttaully vote them number one, but I’d like to do so not because of who they are but because of what they would have accomplished...knocking the haughty Ags of their pedestal.

Must be a Texas thing. For the rest of the country Texas A&M hasn't been truly nationally relevant since the "Wrecking Crew" days of the 90's. They were great regular season teams if nothing else. Cotton Bowl games usually didn't go so well. I miss R.C. Slocum....

[KPSUL]

Who is considering AP beating Georgia? It was hypothetical! I'd put there chances it at about 0.01%!

Right! Not even worth discussing. So why are we?

[Da Bison]

Who is considering AP beating Georgia? It was hypothetical! I'd put there chances it at about 0.01%!So.......you're saying their is a chance😀

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[Catatonic]

Here are FCS at P5 games during week one with the betting line and how a W would impact my poll.
No FCS team is favored to win, so any W is an upset.

Virtually any FCS team that pulls an upset would get serious consideration for a rank of 10-15 in the following week’s poll. Even FCS teams that aren’t in the pre season top 50 would get a huge bump because let’s face it at this stage we are relatively clueless about what kind of team FCS schools outside the top 10 will have this season anyway and a win over a P5 team probably means that team was seriously under rated.

A monumental upset of a ranked power 5 team would probably get a serious look for 1-9. FCS teams that are already in the top 10 would justify their rank. Teams that beat the betting line would not be penalized the following week. Teams that almost pull an upset over a prohibitive favorite would get a bump. A loss doesn’t mean much, so there is little downside unless the loss is a lot more lopsided than the betting line.

Austin Peay at Georgia -45
Weber State at Utah -21 1/2
Charleston Southern at Florida -38 1/2
Albany at Pitt -24
James Madison at North Carolina State. -13 1/2
Richmond at UVA. -12
Missouri State at Oklahoma State. -34 1/2
South Dakota at Kansas State. -21 1/2
South Dakota State at Iowa State. -14
Eastern Illinois at Arkansas. -35 1/2
UT Martin at Missouri. -34 1/2
ACU at Baylor -38
Nicholls at Kansas -10
Stephen F Austin at Mississippi State -46
Alcorn at Georgia Tech -43
Southern at TCU -47
Northwestern State (LA) at Texas A&M -44 1/2
Furman at Clemson. -47 1/2

[Kemo]

How about if Austin Peay whallops Georgia between the hedges? Does Austin Peay jump up to the top echelon of the polls?
I'll straight up say it. If Austin Peay goes on the road and beats the FBS national runner up they will be the #1 team in my poll the following week.

[Catatonic]

I'll straight up say it. If Austin Peay goes on the road and beats the FBS national runner up they will be the #1 team in my poll the following week.


I don’t think NDSU should worry too much about losing its place atop the polls.

[Milktruck74]

What about transitive properties... say Jax St beats At&T in week one and AT&T goes down and thumps EZU the next week....Would At&T jump JSU in the polls because they beat a (name only) FBS squad?

[Thumper 76]

They did get an excessively generous bounce last year. I doubt anyone would’ve had them in the top 100 preseason. By beating a perennial bottom dweller in UNLV, they were able to move into the top 25?

Sorry, I give teams an FBS win bump but not 75+ spots.

This is the wrong mentality and the definition of Kingpins mantra of slot voting, especially early in the year. It’s not how many slots they move up, it’s if you think they are worthy of the top 25 after winning a FBS game, which in most circumstances usually does. How many teams win an FBS game? Even if you catch a FBS team napping you still need a fairly talented team to beat them. When you get to the bottom 5-10 spots in the poll, especially during the first couple weeks, it’s still a lot of conjecture and what little knowledge is gained in the first weeks. The key part, is continuing to have that same process and basically starting your poll from scratch and voting the teams that are worthy. Early in the season it’s very volatile can there’s a lot of wild swings. But how do I justify ranking a team over a team with an FBS win that got waxed by a slightly better FBS team just because I feel they’re better because of last year, name, tradition, whatever? It’s a balancing act.

Realistically, just answering the OP, you need to use your head and judge off your own factors on what you think. There are absolutely close games with FBS teams that are more impressive than FBS wins, just as it would be more impressive for Delaware to play NDSU close than it would be for Samford to beat a weak Big South school. That’s why preseason polls are hard though.


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[RootinFerDukes]

What about transitive properties... say Jax St beats At&T in week one and AT&T goes down and thumps EZU the next week....Would At&T jump JSU in the polls because they beat a (name only) FBS squad?

No. As long as the team that beat them keeps winning, they’re not going to pass said team just by beating a bad FBS team. If it were a good team, that’d be considered differently.

[RootinFerDukes]

This is the wrong mentality and the definition of Kingpins mantra of slot voting, especially early in the year. It’s not how many slots they move up, it’s if you think they are worthy of the top 25 after winning a FBS game, which in most circumstances usually does. How many teams win an FBS game? Even if you catch a FBS team napping you still need a fairly talented team to beat them. When you get to the bottom 5-10 spots in the poll, especially during the first couple weeks, it’s still a lot of conjecture and what little knowledge is gained in the first weeks. The key part, is continuing to have that same process and basically starting your poll from scratch and voting the teams that are worthy. Early in the season it’s very volatile can there’s a lot of wild swings. But how do I justify ranking a team over a team with an FBS win that got waxed by a slightly better FBS team just because I feel they’re better because of last year, name, tradition, whatever? It’s a balancing act.

Realistically, just answering the OP, you need to use your head and judge off your own factors on what you think. There are absolutely close games with FBS teams that are more impressive than FBS wins, just as it would be more impressive for Delaware to play NDSU close than it would be for Samford to beat a weak Big South school. That’s why preseason polls are hard though.


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I didn’t think Howard was a top 25 team, even after the UNLV win. I ended up being correct too, as they quickly dropped right out of the poll about two weeks later. I knew it was more of “UNLV sucks” than “Howard is good”. I ranked accordingly.

Not to discredit an FBS win, but sometimes you just have to admit the team they beat is just awful. God knows NDSU fans tried their damndest to spin our ECU win. Why do some teams get credit for bad FBS wins, while others don’t?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

There's a lot of dreaming going on in this thread.

[Catatonic]

There's a lot of dreaming going on in this thread.

Hopes and dreams are the stuff of preseason before the cold, hard reality of the season falls upon us. We are all Appalachian State awaiting our moment in the sun up in Ann Arbor. xdrunkyx

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Hopes and dreams are the stuff of preseason before the cold, hard reality of the season falls upon us. We are all Appalachian State awaiting our moment in the sun up in Ann Arbor. xdrunkyx

App State was the two time defending National Champ who was also the preseason #1 team in 2007. No one is the current App State heading into 2017. Technically, not even NDSU....

[Catatonic]

App State was the two time defending National Champ who was also the preseason #1 team in 2007. No one is the current App State heading into 2017. Technically, not even NDSU....

dream killer.

App State was still a huge underdog against the number 5 team in the country at their place.

[PantherRob82]

They did get an excessively generous bounce last year. I doubt anyone would’ve had them in the top 100 preseason. By beating a perennial bottom dweller in UNLV, they were able to move into the top 25?

Sorry, I give teams an FBS win bump but not 75+ spots.

The preseason poll has nothing to do with the Week 1 poll. It's not the starting line. The preseason poll is literally an educated guess. The Week 1 poll is based on real games being played. So they didn't jump any spots. They played a game, got ranked and couldn't hold onto it.

[centennial]

I didn’t think Howard was a top 25 team, even after the UNLV win. I ended up being correct too, as they quickly dropped right out of the poll about two weeks later. I knew it was more of “UNLV sucks” than “Howard is good”. I ranked accordingly.

Not to discredit an FBS win, but sometimes you just have to admit the team they beat is just awful. God knows NDSU fans tried their damndest to spin our ECU win. Why do some teams get credit for bad FBS wins, while others don’t?

Teams in the top 10 are expected to beat bad FBS teams. ECU would struggle to have a winning season in an okay FCS conference. Hence that is the kind of credit JMU deserved. Beating an average'ish FCS team.

[RootinFerDukes]

Teams in the top 10 are expected to beat bad FBS teams. ECU would struggle to have a winning season in an okay FCS conference. Hence that is the kind of credit JMU deserved. Beating an average'ish FCS team.

Did you spin all of NDSU's FBS wins outside of KSU and Iowa that way in years past? Just wondering.

[Reign of Terrier]

Hot take: slot voting is no big deal and people who hate it only hate it so they can boast how great the MVFC is or invest way too much into their subjective judgment of unfalsifiable assessments.:D

FCS rankings will always be flawed, especially compared to FBS rankings. Vote however you like.

[WileECoyote06]

No. As long as the team that beat them keeps winning, they’re not going to pass said team just by beating a bad FBS team. If it were a good team, that’d be considered differently.

Wouldn't it also depend on the scores? If Jax State only beats A&T by a last second field goal in Montgomery; but then A&T goes on to beat ECU by double digits, I'm going to give A&T a second look.

[RootinFerDukes]

Wouldn't it also depend on the scores? If Jax State only beats A&T by a last second field goal in Montgomery; but then A&T goes on to beat ECU by double digits, I'm going to give A&T a second look.

I'll give it a harder look in that scenario, but it's not a guarantee. I do value continuing to win, especially if your SOS is good. It's not good for either in JSU and A&T's case.

[Thumper 76]

The preseason poll has nothing to do with the Week 1 poll. It's not the starting line. The preseason poll is literally an educated guess. The Week 1 poll is based on real games being played. So they didn't jump any spots. They played a game, got ranked and couldn't hold onto it.
Thanks for saying that I’m a better fashion than I did.

Hot take: slot voting is no big deal and people who hate it only hate it so they can boast how great the MVFC is or invest way too much into their subjective judgment of unfalsifiable assessments.:D

FCS rankings will always be flawed, especially compared to FBS rankings. Vote however you like.

Hot take, slot voting would hurt a SoCon team more than a MVFC team since most start higher than SoCon teams.


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[centennial]

Did you spin all of NDSU's FBS wins outside of KSU and Iowa that way in years past? Just wondering.

It's nice to win a FBS game. Gets you some time on ESPN, Fox etc. Kansas, MN, Ball State and CO State have been the worst teams to play NDSU. ECU would lose to most of them. Even if these wins were comparable. I don't think that is enough to justify a number #1 seed over a team playing and winning over a harder schedule.

Let's say NDSU goes and beats Texas State this year, should that alone be enough to rank it first in the nation?

[RootinFerDukes]

If they were the undefeated defending champion, yeah. They would still be #1 despite their Texas state win.

[Reign of Terrier]

Thanks for saying that I’m a better fashion than I did.


Hot take, slot voting would hurt a SoCon team more than a MVFC team since most start higher than SoCon teams.


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Maybe at first, but if the MVFC beats each other up, as the season moves on we'd see some equilibrium

[Catatonic]

Slot voting is problematic at the beginning of the season when none of us really knows much about teams beyond those at the very top. I expect to make dramatic changes in my poll during the first few weeks of the season as more information is available.


Take my Abilene Christian team, for example. Coming off back-to back 2-9 seasons, we aren’t on anyone’s radar. We play Baylor from the Big 12 in our opener. We are 38 point underdogs.
What to do with Abilene Christian if the Wildcats upset Baylor?

Baylor isn’t a good Power 5 conference team. Even so, they ARE in one of the power conferences. Based on Sagarin, Massey and other computer rankings that combine FCS and FBS schools, Baylor is better than all but a couple of FCS teams.

Put another way, what would a W by an unranked school over a top 5 FCS team be worth in the first game of the season? Would the unranked team be in the top 10 FCS poll the following week? Top 20?

A slot voter would say no unranked team should jump into the top 10 based on one upset win. Too much movement. Late in the season, I’d agree. Early on, a team is 1-0 with the W coming against the equivalent of an elite FCS team should be worth a lot in terms of poll movement.

FWIW, this is a hypothetical. I don’t expect an upset here. I view our opener as a gauge to determine how far we need to go to compete against the better teams in our division.

[Outsider1]

Personally, exactly because of our back to back 2-9 seasons, I wouldn't move ACU up to even top 25 IF we beat Baylor. I am new to the area of even trying to rank teams but past would come into my radar enough if it was a consistent recent past. Put that together with it being a season opener game and it doesn't give me enough info to bump any team THAT much. I would give us a significant boost, but not that big.

[Catatonic]

Personally, exactly because of our back to back 2-9 seasons, I wouldn't move ACU up to even top 25 IF we beat Baylor. I am new to the area of even trying to rank teams but past would come into my radar enough if it was a consistent recent past. Put that together with it being a season opener game and it doesn't give me enough info to bump any team THAT much. I would give us a significant boost, but not that big.

My assumption is that other than the top handful of elite teams rankings are without sufficient foundation to make definitive judgements about a team’s rank. Sure, if a team scored a major upset late in the season after performing poorly all year, it wouldn’t justify a major bump. But early on rankings aren’t based on definitive data.

[Outsider1]

My assumption is that other than the top handful of elite teams rankings are without sufficient foundation to make definitive judgements about a team’s rank. Sure, if a team scored a major upset late in the season after performing poorly all year, it wouldn’t justify a major bump. But early on rankings aren’t based on definitive data.


I think you are right. I would have to take the team where it is at in the season, the context of the previous season (rank, players, attrition, coaches, etc..), new changes that have occurred and compare the same with other teams at that point in time and then adjust as the season progressed. I really don't know how that compares with slot voting.