2018 Over/Under Countdown - Big Sky Conference

[superman7515]

So I did this contest a few years ago and it went pretty well, thought it might be nice to resurrect it.

The way it works is really simple; every couple of days I'll post a new conference with a win total for each of the teams in it (all of the win totals will have a 1/2 game on the end so there are no pushes) and you just reply back in the thread with each team and whether they will finish Over or Under the win total I posted. It's total wins for the season, not just FCS, games against lower division teams and playoff/HBCU bowl victories count as well, so if you think a team is going to make the postseason, make sure you add in any wins you want to attribute to them.

Now, early in the game last time there was some confusion. Like Vegas, I'm not trying to accurately predict how many wins a team is going to get, I'm trying to pick a number that I think will get "bettors" on both sides of the line.

Of course, the last time I set lines for the season, everyone said it was too easy... and yet only two people, Ursus and GoLehighTU, out of 114 who entered the contest, were able to beat my over/under more than 60% of the time. Not including those two, only another 15 were able to beat 50%. So it must not be that easy chumps.

I'll make a spreadsheet on Google Docs and have it available for everyone to look at and see how you're doing vs how everyone else is doing. At the end of it all, we'll see who got the most right, and you'll get a trophy.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins
5) Montana - 8.5 wins
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins

[superman7515]

So for ease of me adding this all to the spreadsheets, please just copy and paste that section above in your reply, then type Over or Under afterwards. For example (I'm just alternating over/under, not actually making any predictions):

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Over
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Under
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

And let's see if someone can beat Ursus this year.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Man, loved this game supey so thanks for bringing back the fun. Gonna have to put the thinkin' cap on and just guess like I did last time and try to luck my way into a "didn't embarrass himself" this time around. xlolx

[BadlandsGrizFan]

So I did this contest a few years ago and it went pretty well, thought it might be nice to resurrect it.

The way it works is really simple; every couple of days I'll post a new conference with a win total for each of the teams in it (all of the win totals will have a 1/2 game on the end so there are no pushes) and you just reply back in the thread with each team and whether they will finish Over or Under the win total I posted. It's total wins for the season, not just FCS, games against lower division teams and playoff/HBCU bowl victories count as well, so if you think a team is going to make the postseason, make sure you add in any wins you want to attribute to them.

Now, early in the game last time there was some confusion. Like Vegas, I'm not trying to accurately predict how many wins a team is going to get, I'm trying to pick a number that I think will get "bettors" on both sides of the line.

Of course, the last time I set lines for the season, everyone said it was too easy... and yet only two people, Ursus and GoLehighTU, out of 114 who entered the contest, were able to beat my over/under more than 60% of the time. Not including those two, only another 15 were able to beat 50%. So it must not be that easy chumps.

I'll make a spreadsheet on Google Docs and have it available for everyone to look at and see how you're doing vs how everyone else is doing. At the end of it all, we'll see who got the most right, and you'll get a trophy.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

I think the Big Sky has a bottleneck of 8 win teams this year.

[wapiti]

Do I publish my guess here or on the spreadsheet?
Is it for all games or just conference games?
I see in the OP it says the entire season counts. Plus post season.
How about OOC games that are a conference mate?
So these games will count too.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

I reserve the right to change my guesses based on the answer to my questions.
Now that I saw the answers to my questions, I did change a couple of my guesses

[Iridebikes]

Great idea. Thanks.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins, over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins, under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins, over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins, under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins, under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins, over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins, under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins, under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins, over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins, over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins, under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins, under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins, under

[Silenoz]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

[Silenoz]

Do I publish my guess here or on the spreadsheet?
Is it for all games or just conference games?
I see in the OP it says the entire season counts. Plus post season.
How about OOC games that are a conference mate?
So these games will count too.

All games, including playoffs

[superman7515]

Here's the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_VlxZR8vqt2PrbpUpJtf-olrt6KI9LPYSi4dVJ5bu_w/edit?usp=sharing

Once your name and votes are added to the list, if you make any changes, send me a PM so that I don't miss it. Your username links to the post where you made your selections.

[mvemjsunpx]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER


Why no North Dakota?

[BisonTru]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - Under
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - Over

[superman7515]

Why no North Dakota?

Good question.

I was looking at the Big Sky's football page and just listed everyone in alphabetical order, and they don't show North Dakota: http://www.bigskyconf.com/standings.aspx?standings=90

I assumed it's because they aren't being considered a full member for the next two years, so I was just going to list them in the Independent section. Yes, they aren't really Independent, but they aren't listed on the Big Sky page and aren't eligible for the Big Sky championship, however, they can still make the playoffs, so it's very similar to an Independent with a scheduling agreement. Basically, I was just going with the idea of if the Big Sky didn't include them, I shouldn't include them in the Big Sky.

If it makes more sense to everyone for me to add them into the Big Sky section, I can do that, but for the game itself it doesn't make any difference where they are listed.

[mvemjsunpx]

Good question.

I was looking at the Big Sky's football page and just listed everyone in alphabetical order, and they don't show North Dakota: http://www.bigskyconf.com/standings.aspx?standings=90

I assumed it's because they aren't being considered a full member for the next two years, so I was just going to list them in the Independent section. Yes, they aren't really Independent, but they aren't listed on the Big Sky page and aren't eligible for the Big Sky championship, however, they can still make the playoffs, so it's very similar to an Independent with a scheduling agreement. Basically, I was just going with the idea of if the Big Sky didn't include them, I shouldn't include them in the Big Sky.

If it makes more sense to everyone for me to add them into the Big Sky section, I can do that, but for the game itself it doesn't make any difference where they are listed.

It's weird they aren't listed on the standings page. They can't win the league, of course, but teams that are ineligible for other reasons (APR, transitional, etc.) never get omitted entirely.

[Vandal03]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Under

[VandalBasher]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Under

I would agree with you except for Weber and EWU.

[JacksFan40]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 win Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Over
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

[JALMOND]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins--->UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins--->OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins--->OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins--->UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins--->UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins--->OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins--->OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins--->UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins---OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins---OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins--->UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins--->OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins--->OVER

Cal Poly---I see only 2, maybe 3 wins.
EWU---I had at 9 wins, making the playoffs and getting at least 1 win there, therefore putting them over 9.5.
Idaho---I see them winning all their home games, and getting wins at Idaho State and Davis, getting them to 7.
Idaho State---Winning Western State and one more game somewhere. Can't see another win.
Montana---I only see 6 wins heading in to Cat-Griz.
Montana State---Should have 5 wins before Cat-Griz.
NAU---I see 8 wins without really trying.
NoCo---Brutal home slate leaves them short of 5 wins.
PSU---Should eke out a conference win somewhere to go with a win over College of Idaho.
Sac St---Should win out at home and pick up a road win somewhere.
Southern Utah---To get them over may mean stealing a win against Oregon State.
UC Davis---Should be over before the Causeway.
Weber---8 wins during the season and get a win in the playoffs.

[Catbooster]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Under
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

[nodak651]

It's weird they aren't listed on the standings page. They can't win the league, of course, but teams that are ineligible for other reasons (APR, transitional, etc.) never get omitted entirely.

It's because UND isn't in the big sky. It is only a scheduling agreement. The exception is that UND's opponents get wins and losses counted toward conference standings. UND was not part of big sky media days.

[mvemjsunpx]

It's because UND isn't in the big sky. It is only a scheduling agreement. The exception is that UND's opponents get wins and losses counted toward conference standings. UND was not part of big sky media days.

Ah, OK.

[wapiti]

Bump

[bobcathpdevil56]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins OVER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

Thanks Supe!!!

[TheKingpin28]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins OVER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

[VandalBasher]

I don't think I will get this right for a couple of years. I am intrigued by anyone that puts under, or over, for Idaho since we don't yet know how our players will adapt to the offense and defense from the BSC. We have been recruiting, training and playing against Sun Belt teams and this change could be so great that it might take a few years of recruiting to adapt to the current style of play with the right schemes, players and coaches.

Think of any of the teams that switched conferences. It took a while.

[McNeese72]

I guess I will ask here. What is going on with the BigSkyFans.com website? I haven't been able to get on it today and keep getting an Error 526 message.

Doc

[nodak651]

I guess I will ask here. What is going on with the BigSkyFans.com website? I haven't been able to get on it today and keep getting an Error 526 message.

Doc

Same.

[mvemjsunpx]

I guess I will ask here. What is going on with the BigSkyFans.com website? I haven't been able to get on it today and keep getting an Error 526 message.

Doc

Egriz seems to be having the same problem. The forums work if you go there directly, though http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/index.php

[SeattleBobcat]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

[mvemjsunpx]

Egriz seems to be having the same problem. The forums work if you go there directly, though http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/index.php

UPDATE - the other Big Sky boards on Bigskyfans aren't so lucky, though—they seem to be completely down.

[FUBeAR]

Why no North Dakota?

I thought this was an interesting article. It seems Mr. Groomes has similar questions/concerns about the Big Sky's 'interesting' schedule as FUBeAR does...

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16337

FCS'S MISSING CONFERENCE MATCH-UPS

Big Sky


[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Montana
[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Idaho vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana State vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Montana State vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana State vs. UC Davis
[*=left]UC Davis vs. Weber State


Wow! Right off the bat, there’s eleven games that many of the Big Sky’s contenders will not be playing. In fact, there’s a twelfth between Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona, but they will actually compete in a “non-conference” match-up. With the Big Sky being the FCS’ largest conference, both in geographic size and by number of teams, these things happen. On top of each playing eight conference opponents, a fourteenth team, North Dakota, is a lame duck conference member that cannot win the league’s automatic, but who’s games will still count in the standings for everyone else. Idaho is dropping down from FBS football back into the Big Sky after 22 years, but will miss three of the other main contenders in 2018. Upstarts Sacramento State and UC Davis are looking to make the leap into the big boy conversation, but each misses multiple opportunities to make statements. The Eastern Washington/Montana/Northern Arizona triangle of top contenders all miss each other, at least in official conference action. And each of them could be favored to win every conference game they play, opening the potential for tri-champions all going 8-0. That would be interesting!

[Thumper 76]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins-Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins-Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins-Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins-Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins-Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins-Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins-Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins-Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins-Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins-Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins-Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins-Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins-Under


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Thumper 76]

I thought this was an interesting article. It seems Mr. Groomes has similar questions/concerns about the Big Sky's 'interesting' schedule as FUBeAR does...

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16337

FCS'S MISSING CONFERENCE MATCH-UPS

Big Sky


[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Montana
[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Idaho vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana State vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Montana State vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana State vs. UC Davis
[*=left]UC Davis vs. Weber State


Wow! Right off the bat, there’s eleven games that many of the Big Sky’s contenders will not be playing. In fact, there’s a twelfth between Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona, but they will actually compete in a “non-conference” match-up. With the Big Sky being the FCS’ largest conference, both in geographic size and by number of teams, these things happen. On top of each playing eight conference opponents, a fourteenth team, North Dakota, is a lame duck conference member that cannot win the league’s automatic, but who’s games will still count in the standings for everyone else. Idaho is dropping down from FBS football back into the Big Sky after 22 years, but will miss three of the other main contenders in 2018. Upstarts Sacramento State and UC Davis are looking to make the leap into the big boy conversation, but each misses multiple opportunities to make statements. The Eastern Washington/Montana/Northern Arizona triangle of top contenders all miss each other, at least in official conference action. And each of them could be favored to win every conference game they play, opening the potential for tri-champions all going 8-0. That would be interesting!

The real question is why did it take you this long to start throwing your hissy fit over this until this year, two years after UND won the Big Sky auto bid and received a seed when missing all the other top teams in the conference?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

The real question is why did it take you this long to start throwing your hissy fit over this until this year, two years after UND won the Big Sky auto bid and received a seed when missing all the other top teams in the conference?


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkAre you’re saying nothing has changed in those 2 years? It was only way screwy then. Now it’s epically screwy.

what’s a hissy fit?

[F'N Hawks]

The real question is why did it take you this long to start throwing your hissy fit over this until this year, two years after UND won the Big Sky auto bid and received a seed when missing all the other top teams in the conference?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fake News?

[Bisonator]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

Thanks for the game Sup!

[VandalBasher]

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-18/2018-idaho-vandals-football-schedule.php

I took a look at the 2017 results and applied these to this year's schedule. Since we play an incomplete BSC schedule, this is what we got.

Idaho along with MSU and NAU have the weakest in-conference schedules.

Idaho doesn't play:
Weber St., Sac. St. nor NAU (no disrespect, but UNC doesn't count)

Idaho has at home:
SUU and Montana

Idaho has road games to:
UC Davis, MSU and EWU (sorry ISU)

[VandalBasher]

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/download/file.php?avatar=779_1465482003.jpg (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=779)
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Re: 2018 Big Sky Preseason Predictions (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=49320&start=75#p1198404)




Unread post (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=1198404#p1198404)by Wildcat Ryan (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=779) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:48 am
Good list Mvem. Normally I would create my own team by team predictions list like I have over the last two seasons but frankly I just haven't had the time.

So I'll just put in my two cents on teams of interest the lazy way. (FYI the order these teams are listed is not necessarily my predicted order of finish, just the order they came to my mind)

1. Weber will win the Conference this year again and get their very first top 8 seed.....

Now for the actual prediction. The Wildcats return their entire offensive line and their slew of running backs that all played last year. Yes they lost a few really good offensive playmakers but they return a lot and was very successful in their recruiting effort. The biggest ? is the QB situation. But I think Weber will unveil a diamond in the rough come the season opener. Defensively the Wildcats return all but 2 defensive starters. Look for the Wildcats to be very good defensively again. Hill is a proven recruiter and it has shown in the recent Success of the Football program.

2. Southern Utah will be good again and should not be overlooked. The loss of Tyler will test this team early on offense but they have loads of talent returning and I think SUU may surprise some people

3. Eastern Washington will be dangerous offensively like always, but they need to play better defense. If they can improve in this aspect they could be National Title contenders. Eastern was 10th in total defense last year in front of only 3-7 UNC, 4-7 Idaho State and 0-11 PSU. Eastern also needs to be able to move the ball against good defensive teams. Eastern's 4 losses last year came to teams with good defenses and an FBS team. In those losses Eastern averaged 17.7 points while giving up an average of 42.5. That's a telling stat (Yes I realize one of their losses was to Texas Tech but even if you remove them it's still ugly for EWU with an average of 20.3 points scored while giving up 38.

4. Idaho scheduled themselves out of the playoffs, they need to go no worse than 6-2 in conference just to get to 7-4. It's do-able but it wont be easy for them. Idaho will be a solid FCS program again, it just might take a year or two.

5. UC Davis is kinda in the same boat as EWU. They have the offensive pieces in place but their defense needs to start showing up. The Big Sky hasn't really been known for their defense but a few teams are starting to focus on that a little more and it is paying off for them. If Davis wants to be successful they need to play better defense.

6. Montana is going to be an interesting one for me. Hauck, a proven winner at Montana is back at the helm. I don't think it will take long for the Griz to return to their old ways, maybe a season but don't sleep on the Griz. One thing I think is interesting is that Hauck said in an interview that the Big Sky hasn't really changed since he left. I disagree. I think several teams: Weber, SUU, SAC, and yes even NAU and possibly ISU, have all improved since he left, and with the return of Idaho the Big Sky is MUCH different than it was before and Bobby might find it harder to win games now.

7. Montana State lost Murray for the year due to academic reasons....for some reason I think this might actually be better for the Bobcats. Despite how talented the kid is I never really felt like he was the kinda QB that worked with the offensive schemes that MSU runs. I could be wrong though, only time will tell.

8. Northern Arizona has been given a gift by the BSC, when your hardest Conference opponents are Weber State and SUU at home the league set you up for success. Anything less than a Co-Big Sky championship with the talent and schedule they have is a let down at this point.

9. Sacramento State, the Wildcard team this year. Sacramento State looks to have the pieces in place for a playoff run, however they need to do more than beat the lower level teams of the conference if they want to make this a reality. Sac went 1-3 against the top 4 teams last year (granted the game vs WSU was OOC but it still makes my point) and their win over SUU was when SUU was without their starting QB. A tough schedule with tough road games this year @ Montana, SUU, Weber State, NAU and UC Davis will really test this team.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Over
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Under

[Catbooster]

I thought this was an interesting article. It seems Mr. Groomes has similar questions/concerns about the Big Sky's 'interesting' schedule as FUBeAR does...

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16337

FCS'S MISSING CONFERENCE MATCH-UPS

Big Sky


[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Montana
[*=left]Eastern Washington vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Idaho vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Idaho vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana vs. Weber State
[*=left]Montana State vs. Northern Arizona
[*=left]Montana State vs. Sacramento State
[*=left]Montana State vs. UC Davis
[*=left]UC Davis vs. Weber State


Wow! Right off the bat, there’s eleven games that many of the Big Sky’s contenders will not be playing. In fact, there’s a twelfth between Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona, but they will actually compete in a “non-conference” match-up. With the Big Sky being the FCS’ largest conference, both in geographic size and by number of teams, these things happen. On top of each playing eight conference opponents, a fourteenth team, North Dakota, is a lame duck conference member that cannot win the league’s automatic, but who’s games will still count in the standings for everyone else. Idaho is dropping down from FBS football back into the Big Sky after 22 years, but will miss three of the other main contenders in 2018. Upstarts Sacramento State and UC Davis are looking to make the leap into the big boy conversation, but each misses multiple opportunities to make statements. The Eastern Washington/Montana/Northern Arizona triangle of top contenders all miss each other, at least in official conference action. And each of them could be favored to win every conference game they play, opening the potential for tri-champions all going 8-0. That would be interesting!
The real question here is whether you can take this guy seriously when he totally ignores Weber and includes Montana in the top 3 contenders.

[FUBeAR]

The real question here is whether you can take this guy seriously when he totally ignores Weber and includes Montana in the top 3 contenders.maybe. I was just impressed that he could sort out who’s playing and not playing whom...and which games did & didn’t count...as well as even naming all 27 Teams in or not in or sorta in the Conference

[VandalBasher]

maybe. I was just impressed that he could sort out who’s playing and not playing whom...and which games did & didn’t count...as well as even naming all 27 Teams in or not in or sorta in the Conference

So much confusion! That is why we rely heavily on computer modeling to keep track of such a wicked web of teams in a sorta conference.

[FUBeAR]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins UNDER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins UNDER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

[mvemjsunpx]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins UNDER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins UNDER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER


11 out of 13 under? Is that even mathematically possible?

[FUBeAR]

11 out of 13 under? Is that even mathematically possible?

IKR / LOL - I was wondering exactly the same thing. Then I remembered that it’s the BSC and I can just pretend that it is possible, even if it’s actually not.

[bonarae]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

[Daytripper]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins- Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 - Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - Over
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - Under
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - ​Under

[NDSUKurt]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins -UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - OVER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - ​UNDER

[VandalBasher]

This will be a fun thread to look back on. The Big Sky is still the third strongest conference in FCS and will get at least two of the total FBS wins.

This was already fact checked on Snopes.com.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

IKR / LOL - I was wondering exactly the same thing. Then I remembered that it’s the BSC and I can just pretend that it is possible, even if it’s actually not.

You sort of seem to be trying to go that MPLSBison route for some reason. Good luck.xthumbsupx

[superman7515]

Spreadsheet is updated.

For those of you guys who made selections here on the Big Sky thread, make sure you make your pics in the Big South thread as well.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?209901-2018-Over-Under-Countdown-Big-South-Conference

Picks have to be made for ALL conferences in order to be in the running to take Ursus' trophy, no cherry picking the one you know best in order to keep your win % high.



EDIT: If your username doesn't have a green background, you're missing picks from a conference in order to be eligible.

[Bisonoline]

Why doesnt somebody delete one of these threads????

[superman7515]

Why doesnt somebody delete one of these threads????

Because they're different...

[MTfan4life]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - OVER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - UNDER

[The Yo Show]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - OVER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - OVER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - UNDER

[caribbeanhen]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins over

[dbackjon]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - UNDR
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - OVER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - OVER

[Gangtackle11]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins OVER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins OVER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins UNDER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

[dbackjon]

So I did this contest a few years ago and it went pretty well, thought it might be nice to resurrect it.

The way it works is really simple; every couple of days I'll post a new conference with a win total for each of the teams in it (all of the win totals will have a 1/2 game on the end so there are no pushes) and you just reply back in the thread with each team and whether they will finish Over or Under the win total I posted. It's total wins for the season, not just FCS, games against lower division teams and playoff/HBCU bowl victories count as well, so if you think a team is going to make the postseason, make sure you add in any wins you want to attribute to them.

Now, early in the game last time there was some confusion. Like Vegas, I'm not trying to accurately predict how many wins a team is going to get, I'm trying to pick a number that I think will get "bettors" on both sides of the line.

Of course, the last time I set lines for the season, everyone said it was too easy... and yet only two people, Ursus and GoLehighTU, out of 114 who entered the contest, were able to beat my over/under more than 60% of the time. Not including those two, only another 15 were able to beat 50%. So it must not be that easy chumps.

I'll make a spreadsheet on Google Docs and have it available for everyone to look at and see how you're doing vs how everyone else is doing. At the end of it all, we'll see who got the most right, and you'll get a trophy.

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins
5) Montana - 8.5 wins
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins


Thanks for doing this - once we've posted, is there a cutoff to make changes? IE I review next week and realize I want to make changes?

[Professor Chaos]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins OVER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

[KPSUL]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins UNDER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins UNDER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins​UNDER

[GoBlueHens83]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins OVER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins OVER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins ​under

[Fordham]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Over
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Under
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Under

[Roamingriz]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins - Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins - Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins - Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins - Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins - Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins - Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins - Over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins - Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins - Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins - Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins - Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins - Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins - Under

[X-Factor]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Under
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Over
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Over
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Under
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Anthony215]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins OVER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins UNDER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins OVER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

[Smitty]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Over
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Under
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Over
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Under
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Under
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over

[fmftballmgr]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins UNDER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins OVER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins UNDER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins UNDER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins OVER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins UNDER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins UNDER

[THE DANIMAL]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins OVER
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins UNDER
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins OVER
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins UNDER
5) Montana - 8.5 wins OVER
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins OVER
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins OVER
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins UNDER
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins OVER
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins UNDER
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins UNDER
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins OVER
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins OVER

[Milktruck74]

1) Cal Poly - 3.5 wins Over
2) Eastern Washington - 9.5 wins Under
3) Idaho - 6.5 wins Over
4) Idaho State - 2.5 wins Under
5) Montana - 8.5 wins Over
6) Montana State - 4.5 wins Under
7) Northern Arizona - 7.5 wins Over
8) Northern Colorado - 4.5 wins Under
9) Portland State - 1.5 wins Over
10) Sacramento State - 5.5 wins Under
11) Southern Utah - 7.5 wins Over
12) UC Davis - 3.5 wins Over
13) Weber State - 8.5 wins Over