2018 Yale Schedule and Analysis

[bonarae]

So, to follow the lead of JMU and NDSU (even Marist)... why not have an analysis of the defending Ivy League football champions? (Red colored days are losses; black colored days are wins)

September
15 - Holy Cross - not sure about the Crusaders' chances now. Elis will get their first W here.
22 - Cornell - the Big Red are greatly improved (or slightly?). Close game, but Elis will still get the W.
29 - Maine - home opener for Yale this season. Elis will get win #3, but Black Bears will keep it close.
October
5 - Dartmouth - win #4.
13 - Mercer - will the scholarships and the tougher SOS of the Macon Bears' games played before this game put this game in their favor?
19 - Penn - no doubt about it... Elis will rebound.
27 - Columbia - tough game to call here. Toss-up.
November
3 - Brown - win no matter what
10 - Princeton - I'm afraid given the number of 2019 NFL Draft prospects the Tigers has, it may become well, another toss-up (depending on the injury situation of the Tigers by then)
17 - Harvard (Fenway Park) - can the Elis spoil the Fenway party of the Crimson? Who knows... Toss-up again.

Final predicted record - 8-2, 6-1 Ivy League

[Go Green]

So, to follow the lead of JMU and NDSU (even Marist)... why not have an analysis of the defending Ivy League football champions? (Red colored days are losses; black colored days are wins)

September
15 - Holy Cross - not sure about the Crusaders' chances now. Elis will get their first W here.
22 - Cornell - the Big Red are greatly improved (or slightly?). Close game, but Elis will still get the W.
29 - Maine - home opener for Yale this season. Elis will get win #3, but Black Bears will keep it close.
October
5 - Dartmouth - win #4.
13 - Mercer - will the scholarships and the tougher SOS of the Macon Bears' games played before this game put this game in their favor?
19 - Penn - no doubt about it... Elis will rebound.
27 - Columbia - tough game to call here. Toss-up.
November
3 - Brown - win no matter what
10 - Princeton - I'm afraid given the number of 2019 NFL Draft prospects the Tigers has, it may become well, another toss-up (depending on the injury situation of the Tigers by then)
17 - Harvard (Fenway Park) - can the Elis spoil the Fenway party of the Crimson? Who knows... Toss-up again.

Final predicted record - 8-2, 6-1 Ivy League

Based on this and your Harvard analysis, you really think Cornell will improve and really think Dartmouth will regress.

[bonarae]

Based on this and your Harvard analysis, you really think Cornell will improve and really think Dartmouth will regress.

I am not sure about both schools' progressions heading into fall camp. The first attempts for the schedule analysis of a few teams here were made this season.

Both are question marks though... xchinscratchx

[Sader87]

Holy Cross goes into this season with a lot of ????'s.....could be dangerous for Yale though, as they will have played two games already and this will be the home openah for the Saders and new HC Chesney.

[Son of Eli]

Yale should have no problem with Holy Cross. Historically Yale has dominated the series. This doesn't look like a year for a reversal of fortune with Holy Cross transitioning to a new coach and a new QB.

Yale could be surprised by a Cornell upset if they're not careful. Cornell is returning a lot of starters and they can be pretty tough at home, especially at homecoming. Same goes for Penn. I put both in the toss up category.

Reno loves the big OOC match-ups, so I expect Yale will beat Mercer and Maine. Reno must be tired of losing to Teevens so I expect Yale will trounce Dartmouth to excise themselves of years of heartbreak and frustration.

Reno is 4-2 against Bagnoli. With Columbia graduating their QB I expect Yale will easily handle Columbia. Same with Brown.

The Ivy League Championship will likely be decided by the Yale-Princeton game, who are the best two teams in the league when healthy. This however looks like Princeton's year.

Harvard will likely be distracted by hosting The Game at Fenway and a better prepared Yale team will win The Game for a third year in a row.

Final prediction: Yale will lose to either Cornell or Penn (but not both) and to Princeton. They will finish 8-2(5-2) in 2nd place behind Princeton.

[Colgate Raider Redux]

Holy Cross goes into this season with a lot of ????'s.....could be dangerous for Yale though, as they will have played two games already and this will be the home openah for the Saders and new HC Chesney.

On the other hand, the Crusaders will be rebounding from those tough 2018 season opening losses @Colgate and @BC with a very inexperienced roster that was ravaged by graduation. The H.C. 2017 season roster that was ravaged for 2018 lost to Yale 0-32.

By half time in 2017, the Eli had routed the Crusaders. The refs were looking to prevent injuries for the dazed crusaders in the 2nd half. Crusader bodies were saved. But longtime Head Coach Tom Gilmore was axed by Sunday morning.

[FUBeAR]

Reno loves the big OOC match-ups, so I expect Yale will beat Mercer...
So, because the Head Coach ‘loves’ a certain type of game, Yale will beat Mercer? If we want to go with that metric as the primary variable, you should know that Mercer’s Head Coach was the starting QB when Furman beat Georgia Tech and NC State (2x) in 3 successive years. He also led a relatively young & highly inconsistent (Offensively) Mercer Team to within a few minutes of darn-near stealing one of those BIG OOC matchups from Auburn last year. When it comes to “loving” to win Big OOC games, his resume is pretty solid. So, let’s call that one a draw.

While I think Coaching is much Bigly-er at the FCS level than it is in FBS or the NFL, I still think this game will be determined by a few factors beyond what you’ve cited. I know Mercer lost 1 excellent OLman & 2 starting WR’s along with a couple of good LB’s & 1 workmanlike DL Starter, who ‘rolled’ with the backups A LOT. But, they return A TON of experience everywhere and possible talent upgrades in some of those areas mentioned. They also made an ‘intentional’ change at the OC spot, which I believe will address a lot of those consistency issues I mentioned.

I know Yale had an amazing season last year & I know they return their starting QB, top RB, and 2 starting OLmen. I counted among those 2 and the backups returning 22 starts on the OL. So, the new Starters there will be very green. I also know the OC/OL Coach took a HC job & Yale is on their 2nd Replacement Hired to Coach the OL - an individual who has never been THE OL Coach of any Team at any level, if I’m not mistaken. On D, I think the losses might even be a little heavier - most of the Secondary, several Starting DLmen, and an NFL Draft Pick LB (GO FALCONS!); one of 2 LB Starters lost, I think. I know the Top 5 Tacklers departed & I think it is something like 8 of the Top 12 or 14 Tacklers are not returning. Oh, I think the DB Coach & Special Teams Coodinator followed the OC/OL Coach. Not sure of the experience level of his replacement, but I think the Secondary will be very inexperienced also.

So...recognizing a couple of key skill players return on Offense, how does Yale replace the rest of the studs who graduated and key Coaches who departed and, who, I believe, brought the Eli’s their 1st outright IL title in 37 years?

[Go Green]

So...recognizing a couple of key skill players return on Offense, how does Yale replace the rest of the studs who graduated and key Coaches who departed and, who, I believe, brought the Eli’s their 1st outright IL title in 37 years?

The Ivies have a reputation for being deep thinkers. But when it comes to football predictions, the analysis is pretty much "are you bringing your starting QB back?"

Hence, everyone thinks Yale will be the team to beat this year--just like everyone thought Princeton was the team to beat at this time last year. It's also why people think Dartmouth will take a step backwards, even though we're bringing back plenty of quality experience at the other 21 positions (ok, 20 positions given that our projected starting TE tore his ACL in spring practice).

[FUBeAR]

The Ivies have a reputation for being deep thinkers. But when it comes to football predictions, the analysis is pretty much "are you bringing your starting QB back?"

Hence, everyone thinks Yale will be the team to beat this year--just like everyone thought Princeton was the team to beat at this time last year. It's also why people think Dartmouth will take a step backwards, even though we're bringing back plenty of quality experience at the other 21 positions (ok, 20 positions given that our projected starting TE tore his ACL in spring practice).Ahhhh....thanks...got it...So, “Bears are more ferocious then Bulldogs; hence, we can expect a Mercer victory,” may also be considered thoughtful analysis among the Ivy Faithful. I feel ya. That’s the same logic I use to pick Western Illinois & Ave Maria U. to win their games if I haven’t done my homework.

BTW - I’m pulling for Cole Douglas to emerge as that triggerman for The Big Green. I don’t think that’s the way folks are thinking it’s gonna go right now, but I’m hoping for it nonetheless...he comes from good stock; despite the proclivity of that ‘stock’ to become bellhops. Cole proved he’s a cut above by making a sane & rational decision regarding his choice of a higher education institution. Love to see it work out for him on the field as well!

[Go Green]

BTW - I’m pulling for Cole Douglas to emerge as that triggerman for The Big Green. I don’t think that’s the way folks are thinking it’s gonna go right now, but I’m hoping for it nonetheless...he comes from good stock; despite the proclivity of that ‘stock’ to become bellhops. Cole proved he’s a cut above by making a sane & rational decision regarding his choice of a higher education institution. Love to see it work out for him on the field as well!

It's anyone's guess as to who Dartmouth will start at QB. Unfortunately for Douglas, Dartmouth has some pretty good options. They are (in no particular order)--

1) The incumbent #2
2) The Wildcat QB who did plenty of damage with his legs last season and is trying to turn himself into a Tim Tebow-like QB
3) The athlete
4) The three-star transfer from the U. of Florida
5) The hotshot incoming freshman who had a couple of FBS offers

If Douglas can beat the above guys out, all power to him. We will see how training camp goes!

[Son of Eli]

So, because the Head Coach ‘loves’ a certain type of game, Yale will beat Mercer? If we want to go with that metric as the primary variable, you should know that Mercer’s Head Coach was the starting QB when Furman beat Georgia Tech and NC State (2x) in 3 successive years. He also led a relatively young & highly inconsistent (Offensively) Mercer Team to within a few minutes of darn-near stealing one of those BIG OOC matchups from Auburn last year. When it comes to “loving” to win Big OOC games, his resume is pretty solid. So, let’s call that one a draw.

While I think Coaching is much Bigly-er at the FCS level than it is in FBS or the NFL, I still think this game will be determined by a few factors beyond what you’ve cited. I know Mercer lost 1 excellent OLman & 2 starting WR’s along with a couple of good LB’s & 1 workmanlike DL Starter, who ‘rolled’ with the backups A LOT. But, they return A TON of experience everywhere and possible talent upgrades in some of those areas mentioned. They also made an ‘intentional’ change at the OC spot, which I believe will address a lot of those consistency issues I mentioned.

I know Yale had an amazing season last year & I know they return their starting QB, top RB, and 2 starting OLmen. I counted among those 2 and the backups returning 22 starts on the OL. So, the new Starters there will be very green. I also know the OC/OL Coach took a HC job & Yale is on their 2nd Replacement Hired to Coach the OL - an individual who has never been THE OL Coach of any Team at any level, if I’m not mistaken. On D, I think the losses might even be a little heavier - most of the Secondary, several Starting DLmen, and an NFL Draft Pick LB (GO FALCONS!); one of 2 LB Starters lost, I think. I know the Top 5 Tacklers departed & I think it is something like 8 of the Top 12 or 14 Tacklers are not returning. Oh, I think the DB Coach & Special Teams Coodinator followed the OC/OL Coach. Not sure of the experience level of his replacement, but I think the Secondary will be very inexperienced also.

So...recognizing a couple of key skill players return on Offense, how does Yale replace the rest of the studs who graduated and key Coaches who departed and, who, I believe, brought the Eli’s their 1st outright IL title in 37 years?

You make some excellent points, but it doesn’t paint the full picture. It’s true Yale is losing a lot of talent, both on the field and with the coaches. However, Yale also has a lot of depth thanks to three consecutive Top 3 FCS recruiting classes which they will use to reload.

The three likely OL replacements each had a start last season. The receiver corps also have replacements with experience, and are actually an upgrade from the graduating seniors.

The coaching turnover could be a benefit to keep things fresh with some new looks. The new offensive line coach, Al Netter, may not have a lot of coaching experience but he was an accomplished lineman in both The Big 10 and in the NFL.

Where Yale is weakest in experience is at the Safety positions. The cornerbacks, defensive line and linebackers however all have a lot of game time experience.

[Go...gate]

I agree that Yale is the pick in the Ivy, but I'm thinking 7-3 (6-1 conference).

[FUBeAR]

You make some excellent points, but it doesn’t paint the full picture. It’s true Yale is losing a lot of talent, both on the field and with the coaches. However, Yale also has a lot of depth thanks to three consecutive Top 3 FCS recruiting classes which they will use to reload.

The three likely OL replacements each had a start last season. The receiver corps also have replacements with experience, and are actually an upgrade from the graduating seniors.

The coaching turnover could be a benefit to keep things fresh with some new looks. The new offensive line coach, Al Netter, may not have a lot of coaching experience but he was an accomplished lineman in both The Big 10 and in the NFL.

Where Yale is weakest in experience is at the Safety positions. The cornerbacks, defensive line and linebackers however all have a lot of game time experience.
Interesting...

I see 7 1st Team All-Ivy Yalies lost - 2 OL, 1 TE, 1 DL, 1 LB, and 2 DB’s & 1 Returning, the RB
I see 3 2nd Team All-Ivy lost - 1 OL, 1 WR, and 1 LB & 4 Returning - 1 OL, 2 DL, and a Punter
I see 2 HM All-Ivy lost - 1 RB, 1 DB & 3 Returning - 1 OL, QB, and 1 DB

So, 12 All-Ivy lost - 3 OL, 1 TE, 1 RB 1 WR & 1 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB’s
8 All-Ivy Returning - 2 OL, 1 QB, 1 RB & 2 DL, 1 DB & 1 Punter

So...10 on O, 9 on D, and 1 STer made All-Ivy...impressive. I guess that other WR, 1 DL, 1 LB, your Returner, and your Kicker must have sucked. Just kidding.

Nice nucleus Returning, but A LOT lost, especially up front on O - 2/3rd’s of the Front if you count the TE & all of them 1st or 2nd Team All-Ivy with new, rather inexperienced Coaches leading the OL & TE’s & in the back end on D - 5 of 7, with 4 of those 5 1st or 2nd Team All-Ivy. But, the new Starters, barring injuries, will have almost 1/2 season under their belts before the Bears head North, so they will have had time to break-in and will have already faced 2 IL Teams & a good CAA Team, so I expect they will ready & will play like experienced veterans by mid-October.

[bulldog10jw]

Reno loves the big OOC match-ups, so I expect Yale will beat Mercer and Maine.


If Maine and Mercer are considered BIG OOC matchups, keep in mind that Yale's last two big OOC matchups, Cal Poly in 2013 and Maine in 2015, may have resulted in wins, but were also years when they were blown out by Harvard. I hope Tony doesn't over emphasize OOC games. Doesn't mean Yale can't win or doesn't want to win. It's just that we need to remember which games are most important, especially with the IL being more competitive than ever.

[bulldog10jw]

I agree that Yale is the pick in the Ivy, but I'm thinking 7-3 (6-1 conference).

Princeton has the most talent and did last year, as well. Injuries and bad luck did the Tigers in. I think they will be the most motivated team in the league, followed closely by Harvard. I could see any team, except Brown and Cornell, winning at least a piece of the title.

[Go Green]

. I could see any team, except Brown and Cornell, winning at least a piece of the title.

This.

Princeton/Yale/Harvard/Dartmouth/Penn/Columbia is a grab bag depending on grades/health. I suppose you can throw in QB play for Dartmouth and Columbia--both of whom will be breaking in new signal callers, but both of whom have talented options to choose from.

Cornell may be able to knock off any of the above. But I don't see them doing it on a weekly basis.

Brown... may see another winless Ivy season.

[Son of Eli]

If Maine and Mercer are considered BIG OOC matchups, keep in mind that Yale's last two big OOC matchups, Cal Poly in 2013 and Maine in 2015, may have resulted in wins, but were also years when they were blown out by Harvard. I hope Tony doesn't over emphasize OOC games. Doesn't mean Yale can't win or doesn't want to win. It's just that we need to remember which games are most important, especially with the IL being more competitive than ever.


Dont forget Yale's victory over Army in 2014. I consider that as big as any Ivy League victory.

My philosophy is until the Ivy League allows for FCS playoff participation Yale's OOC schedule should consist primarily of playoff caliber or FBS teams. That way an Ivy League Championship will have greater significance. Otherwise no one will know how good the Ivy League really is.

[Lehigh'98]

Dont forget Yale's victory over Army in 2014. I consider that as big as any Ivy League victory.

My philosophy is until the Ivy League allows for FCS playoff participation Yale's OOC schedule should consist primarily of playoff caliber teams. That way an Ivy League Championship will have greater significance. Otherwise no one will know how good the Ivy League really is.


It's a shame Harvard doesn't share that philosophy.

[bulldog10jw]

Dont forget Yale's victory over Army in 2014. I consider that as big as any Ivy League victory.



The Army game is in a category by itself. In many ways the Army game in 2014, considering the 100th anniversary of the Bowl and Harvard being a road game, was considered the game to win in 2014.

I don't think I would trade that game for a win against H in 2014 even though a Harvard win would have meant a championship.

[RichH2]

It's a shame Harvard doesn't share that philosophy.

I dont think the Admins of either H or Y are in favor of playoff participation.

[Son of Eli]

I dont think the Admins of either H or Y are in favor of playoff participation.


I'm hoping that after cheering Yale's Lacrosse team onto a National Championship President Salovey will evolve on the issue and allow the football team the same opportunity.

[Go Green]

I'm hoping that after cheering Yale's Lacrosse team onto a National Championship President Salovey will evolve on the issue and allow the football team the same opportunity.

If Yale wants something, they usually get it. Can't say the same for other teams in the league...

[Go...gate]

This.

Princeton/Yale/Harvard/Dartmouth/Penn/Columbia is a grab bag depending on grades/health. I suppose you can throw in QB play for Dartmouth and Columbia--both of whom will be breaking in new signal callers, but both of whom have talented options to choose from.

Cornell may be able to knock off any of the above. But I don't see them doing it on a weekly basis.

Brown... may see another winless Ivy season.

What has happened at Brown?

[Sandlapper Spike]

If Yale wants something, they usually get it. Can't say the same for other teams in the league...

Wouldn't Harvard and Princeton essentially have to sign off on playoff participation as well for there to be movement on the issue?

[Son of Eli]

Wouldn't Harvard and Princeton essentially have to sign off on playoff participation as well for there to be movement on the issue?


Technically no. I beleive it only takes six votes to change Ivy League rules

[Son of Eli]

What has happened at Brown?


They raised their Academic Index.

[Go Green]

They raised their Academic Index.

Bingo. When this was reported a few years ago, I said that Brown was finished.

Same thing caused Dartmouth and Yale (and perhaps Columbia) to go into tailspins in the early 1980s, and Dartmouth again in the late 1990s-2000s.