Keepratings.com 2018 is up ...

[Redbird 4th & short]

http://www.keepratings.net/#

Now let the serious prognosticators have some fun with this site. Tracks returning/lost starters and productivity by position group. Great site and info .. I donated this year.

[Professor Chaos]

Yep, just a fantastic site and great work that keeper does each year. Here's the breakdown of the final AGS Poll from last year in regard to starters lost on offense/defense:



Rank
Team
O Starters Lost
D Starters Lost


1
North Dakota State Bison
4.1
3.7


2
James Madison Dukes
5.9
6.9


3
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5.2
3.4


4
Weber State Wildcats
4.2
4.6


5
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3.9
3.6


6
Kennessaw State Owls
1.9
4.8


7
Wofford Terriers
6.0
5.0


8
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
2.9
5.6


9
Central Arkansas Bears
7.6
6.3


10T
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
1.0
6.9


10T
Stony Brook Seawolves
5.4
5.1


12
Northern Iowa Panthers
3.4
5.4


13
New Hampshire Wildcats
2.5
2.1


14
South Dakota Coyotes
3.8
3.8


15
Western Illinois Leathernecks
6.1
5.3


16
North Carolina A&T Aggies
5.5
2.8


17
Furman Paladins
5.9
2.2


18
Elon Phoenix
1.9
2.2


19
Samford Bulldogs
0.6
5.3


20
San Diego Toreros
6.8
4.8


21
Eastern Washington Eagles
1.8
3.1


22
Nicholls State Colonels
3.2
3.3


23
McNeese State Cowboys
3.8
6.7


24
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
4.5
4.3


25
Grambling State Tigers
3.0
5.4


26
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3.7
2.9


27
Yale Bulldogs
7.4
7.1


28
Monmouth Hawks
1.7
4.8


29
Austin Peay Governors
2.5
2.0


30
Montana Grizzlies
5.3
5.1


31
Illinois State Redbirds
2.5
6.6


32
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils
2.1
6.0


33
Sacramento State Hornets
4.5
2.4


34
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
5.8
3.7


35T
Richmond Spiders
5.8
5.0


35T
Western Carolina Catamounts
3.6
7.6


37
Colgate Raiders
2.5
1.5


38
Youngstown State Penguins
6.5
5.1

[Redbird 4th & short]

Quick work Professor ... here's another view. This shows playoff (or bubble teams) with highest % Lost Starters. Average is 39% across all of FCS. Most notable being JMU and then UCA .. the latter of which also lost their head coach.



Playoff Contender
Lost
Total
% Lost
FCS Rank


Central Arkansas
13.9
22.0
63%
2


James Madison
12.8
22.0
58%
5


Youngstown State
11.6
22.0
53%
9


San Diego
11.6
22.0
53%
9


Western Illinois
11.4
22.0
52%
15


Wofford
11.0
22.0
50%
19


Richmond
10.8
22.0
49%
23


Stony Brook
10.5
22.0
48%
26


Montana
10.4
22.0
47%
29

[Redbird 4th & short]

And here are the bottom 12 .. meaning playoff teams or bubble teams that lost the least starters. So maybe Austin Peay takes another step forward this season. Most notable for me are EWU and UNH .. both will be playing with something to prove this year ... for very different reason ironically. Other team to watch is South Dakota .. lot of people presume it was all Streveler's doing last season ... I'm not convinced. Then of course NDSU ... considering JMU lost a lot ... thinking NDSU becomes prohibitive favorite.



Playoff Contender
Lost
Total
% Lost
FCS Rank


Colgate
4.0
22.0
18%
125


Elon
4.1
22.0
19%
124


Austin Peay
4.5
22.0
20%
121


New Hampshire
4.6
22.0
21%
120


Eastern Washington
4.9
22.0
22%
119


Samford
5.9
22.0
27%
113


Villanova
6.3
22.0
29%
106


Monmouth
6.5
22.0
30%
101


Northern Arizona
6.6
22.0
30%
100


Sam Houston State
7.5
22.0
34%
86


South Dakota
7.6
22.0
35%
83


North Dakota State
7.8
22.0
35%
78

[BisonTru]

I see PC already beat me to this kinda but.....


AGS Rank
SCHOOL
CONF
Total Starters Lost
Rank
Off Starters Lost
Rank
Def Starters Lost
Rank













1
North Dakota State
MVFC
7.8
48
4.1
68
3.7
44


2
James Madison
CAA
12.7
121
5.9
109
6.9
117


3
South Dakota State
MVFC
8.6
67
5.2
91
3.4
31


4
Weber State
BIG SKY
8.8
75
4.2
75
4.6
62


5
Sam Houston State
SLC
7.5
40
3.9
64
3.6
36


6
Kennesaw State
BIG SOUTH
6.6
29
1.9
12
4.8
71


7
Wofford
SOUTHERN
11
107
6
113
5
82


8
Jacksonville State
OVC
8.5
65
2.9
36
5.6
97


9
Central Arkansas
SLC
13.8
124
7.6
125
6.3
109


10
Southern Utah
BIG SKY
7.9
53
1
5
6.9
118


11
Stony Brook
CAA
10.5
98
5.4
96
5.1
83


12
Northern Iowa
MVFC
8.8
74
3.4
47
5.4
94


13
New Hampshire
CAA
4.6
7
2.5
23
2.1
6


14
South Dakota
MVFC
7.6
43
3.8
62
3.8
45


15
Western Illinois
MVFC
11.3
111
6.1
115
5.3
89


16
North Carolina A&T
MEAC
8.3
61
5.5
99
2.8
17


17
Furman
SOUTHERN
8.1
55
5.9
111
2.2
8


18
Elon
CAA
4.1
3
1.9
13
2.2
9


19
Samford
SOUTHERN
5.9
15
0.6
2
5.3
90


20
San Diego
PFL
11.7
117
6.8
119
4.8
74


21
Eastern Washington
BIG SKY
4.9
8
1.8
10
3.1
22


22
Nicholls
SLC
6.4
24
3.2
41
3.3
27


23
McNeese State
SLC
10.5
100
3.8
60
6.7
115


24
Delaware
CAA
8.7
71
4.5
82
4.3
54


25
Grambling
SWAC
8.4
64
3
40
5.4
93


26
Northern Arizona
BIG SKY
6.6
27
3.7
56
2.9
21


27
Yale
IVY
14.5
125
7.4
124
7.1
121


28
Monmouth
BIG SOUTH
6.5
25
1.7
8
4.8
73


29
Austin Peay
OVC
4.5
6
2.5
22
2
5


30
Montana
BIG SKY
10.4
96
5.3
93
5.1
86


31
Illinois State
MVFC
9.2
83
2.5
26
6.6
114


32
Central Connecticut
NEC
8.1
56
2.1
15
6
105


33
Sacramento State
BIG SKY
6.9
33
4.5
83
2.4
10


34
Lehigh
PL
9.5
88
5.8
107
3.7
43


35
Richmond
CAA
10.8
102
5.8
106
5
80


36
Western Carolina
SOUTHERN
11.2
108
3.6
53
7.6
122


37
Colgate
PL
3.9
2
2.5
18
1.5
2


38
Youngstown State
MVFC
11.5
115
6.5
117
5.1
88



Delaware State
MEAC
1
1
0.4
1
0.6
81



East Tennessee State
SOUTHERN
4.2
4
2.1
16
2.1
79



Valparaiso
PFL
4.3
5
1.8
9
2.5
68



Mississippi Valley
SWAC
5.3
9
2.8
31
2.5
50



Charleston Southern
BIG SOUTH
5.5
10
2.6
27
2.8
15



Northern Colorado
BIG SKY
5.5
11
3
37
2.5
19



Bryant
NEC
5.6
12
4.1
69
1.5
51



Arkansas-Pine Bluff
SWAC
5.7
13
2.9
34
2.8
119



Wagner
NEC
5.9
14
4.4
78
1.5
3



Texas Southern
SWAC
6
16
2
14
4
85



Campbell
BIG SOUTH
6.3
17
3
38
3.3
123



Villanova
CAA
6.3
18
2.5
19
3.8
120



Davidson
PFL
6.4
19
1
3
5.4
28



Savannah State
MEAC
6.4
20
3.5
48
2.9
18



Norfolk State
MEAC
6.4
21
1.6
7
4.7
55



Rhode Island
CAA
6.4
22
2.7
29
3.6
56



Robert Morris
NEC
6.4
23
1.8
11
4.5
49



Idaho State
BIG SKY
6.5
26
2.9
35
3.6
98



Missouri State
MVFC
6.6
28
4.2
72
2.5
91



Morehead State
PFL
6.7
30
3.5
51
3.2
72



Stetson
PFL
6.7
31
1
4
5.7
1



Mercer
SOUTHERN
6.9
32
3.8
58
3.1
76



Towson
CAA
7.1
34
2.5
20
4.6
52



Montana State
BIG SKY
7.1
35
3.5
49
3.6
7



Princeton
IVY
7.3
36
4
65
3.3
77



Dayton
PFL
7.3
37
2.5
24
4.8
78



Incarnate Word
SLC
7.5
38
3
39
4.5
66



Cornell
IVY
7.5
39
3.5
50
4
59



Tennessee Tech
OVC
7.5
41
3.9
63
3.6
110



Columbia
IVY
7.6
42
3.3
44
4.3
101



Stephen F Austin
SLC
7.6
44
3.4
45
4.3
84



UC-Davis
BIG SKY
7.6
45
4
66
3.6
113



Harvard
IVY
7.7
46
1.2
6
6.5
95



Southern U
SWAC
7.7
47
4.3
76
3.5
116



Lamar
SLC
7.8
49
4.3
77
3.5
69



St Francis-PA
NEC
7.8
50
2.5
21
5.4
63



Alcorn State
SWAC
7.8
51
5.3
92
2.6
38



The Citadel
SOUTHERN
7.9
52
2.3
17
5.6
57



William & Mary
CAA
8
54
4.5
80
3.5
33



Albany
CAA
8.1
57
4.1
70
4
96



Southern Illinois
MVFC
8.1
58
4.5
81
3.6
65



North Dakota
FCS indep
8.2
59
3.3
43
4.9
60



Alabama A&M
SWAC
8.3
60
3.3
42
5
34



Jackson State
SWAC
8.3
62
2.7
30
5.5
16



Jacksonville
PFL
8.4
63
3.7
57
4.6
26



Morgan State
MEAC
8.6
66
5.4
95
3.3
23



North Alabama
FCS indep
8.7
68
4.9
87
3.8
12



Pennsylvania
IVY
8.7
69
5.6
103
3.1
13



South Carolina State
MEAC
8.7
70
2.7
28
6
39



Hampton
FCS indep
8.7
72
3.6
54
5.1
25



Marist
PFL
8.7
73
5.5
100
3.2
29



Duquesne
NEC
8.8
76
4.6
84
4.2
103



North Carolina Central
MEAC
8.9
77
2.5
25
6.4
67



Bucknell
PL
8.9
78
3.8
59
5.1
46



Drake
PFL
9
79
4.1
71
4.9
112



Indiana State
MVFC
9
80
5.5
101
3.5
75



Eastern Illinois
OVC
9.1
81
4.2
73
4.9
14



Fordham
PL
9.2
82
4.6
85
4.5
87



Tennessee State
OVC
9.2
84
2.9
33
6.3
24



Eastern Kentucky
OVC
9.3
85
4.4
79
4.9
61



Murray State
OVC
9.3
86
3.4
46
5.9
108



Chattanooga
SOUTHERN
9.4
87
5.1
88
4.3
70



Lafayette
PL
9.6
89
5.1
89
4.5
30



V M I
SOUTHERN
9.6
90
3.6
55
6
37



Maine
CAA
9.8
91
7.1
120
2.7
58



Gardner-Webb
BIG SOUTH
9.8
92
3.5
52
6.3
124



Florida A&M
MEAC
10.1
93
5.5
97
4.6
20



Alabama State
SWAC
10.2
94
5.5
98
4.7
125



Howard
MEAC
10.4
95
5.6
104
4.7
100



Idaho
BIG SKY
10.4
97
5.8
108
4.6
106



Butler
PFL
10.5
99
2.8
32
7.7
42



Presbyterian
BIG SOUTH
10.6
101
5.9
110
4.7
32



Prairie View
SWAC
10.8
103
4.7
86
6.1
92



SE Missouri
OVC
10.9
104
5.3
94
5.6
53



Cal Poly
BIG SKY
10.9
105
3.8
61
7.1
102



Abilene Christian
SLC
11
106
6
112
5
111



Georgetown
PL
11.2
109
5.5
102
5.6
40



Brown
IVY
11.2
110
4.2
74
7
104



Bethune-Cookman
MEAC
11.5
112
7.4
123
4.1
48



Tennessee-Martin
OVC
11.5
113
5.6
105
5.9
99



Northwestern State
SLC
11.5
114
6.5
116
5.1
64



Dartmouth
IVY
11.6
116
6
114
5.6
41



Portland State
BIG SKY
11.8
118
7.3
121
4.5
107



SE Louisiana
SLC
12.3
119
4
67
8.3
11



Holy Cross
PL
12.7
120
7.3
122
5.5
47



Sacred Heart
NEC
13.2
122
5.2
90
8
4



Houston Baptist
SLC
13.5
123
6.8
118
6.7
35

[Smitty]

How much do I have to donate for them to change the background?

As a side note, if you lose a bunch of defensive starters on a team where the starting defense was bad, is that a good thing?

[BEAR]

Playoff Contender
Lost
Total
% Lost
FCS Rank


Central Arkansas
13.9
22.0
63%
2




Woah....a winning season losing that much means we've accomplished something. xlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Excellent, as always Keeper.

[VandalBasher]

2017
2017
OFFENSIVE STATS LOST



2017 TOTAL TACKLES



DEFENSIVE STATS LOST


SCHOOL
CONF
RUSH
PASS
Starters
QB
RB
WR
OL

DL
LB
DB
Starters
DEF
DL
LB
DB


Idaho
BIG SKY
125
225
5.8
76%
66%
72%
35%

16%
52%
32%
4.6
27%
85%
12%
23%



This will be a little difficult to analyze, apples/oranges.

[JSUSoutherner]

Lol every OVC team except TTU, JSU, and APSU are in the bottom half of the rankings. TTU is going to be awful by default. This conference is ****ed.

[PaladinFan]

How much do I have to donate for them to change the background?

As a side note, if you lose a bunch of defensive starters on a team where the starting defense was bad, is that a good thing?

Depends. WCU's defense was a lot better than it was a few years ago.

[ElCid]

As a side note, if you lose a bunch of defensive starters on a team where the starting defense was bad, is that a good thing?

Yeah, that is always a concern. This info is great though. It is not a foolproof means of determining if a team will do better or worse, but it is a pretty good data point. I need to compare last years numbers and correlate them to increased/decreased wins to see how it flushed out. I am almost certain the numbers will be all over the place though.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah, that is always a concern. This info is great though. It is not a foolproof means of determining if a team will do better or worse, but it is a pretty good data point. I need to compare last years numbers and correlate them to increased/decreased wins to see how it flushed out. I am almost certain the numbers will be all over the place though.This won’t help you with that quest, but it does give a pretty good at-a-glance for the SoCon Teams Returning/Lost data...




2017
2017
Offensive
Stats
Lost



2017
Total
Tackles
Defensive
Stats
Lost





TEAM
RUSH
PASS
Starters
Lost
QB
RB
WR
OL

DL
LB
DB
Starters Lost
DEF
DL
LB
DB
Total Starters Lost


ETSU
71
202
2.1
0%
39%
20%
18%

20%
46%
34%
2.1
14%
0%
4%
34%
4.2


Samford
80
333
0.6
0%
17%
8%
3%

29%
40%
31%
5.3
49%
25%
64%
50%
5.9


Mercer
143
189
3.8
0%
22%
36%
42%

15%
44%
40%
3.1
21%
27%
39%
0%
6.9


Citadel
295
95
2.3
44%
33%
32%
0%

18%
38%
44%
5.6
45%
27%
42%
56%
7.9


Furman
226
198
5.9
96%
39%
49%
40%

21%
44%
35%
2.2
22%
0%
46%
4%
8.1


FCS Avg
152
209
4.0
31%
31%
35%
35%

23%
36%
41%
4.5
37%
37%
37%
36%
8.5


Chattanooga
78
190
5.1
1%
77%
43%
33%

30%
37%
33%
4.3
37%
34%
47%
30%
9.4


VMI
82
137
3.6
46%
50%
15%
47%

19%
47%
34%
6.0
56%
21%
87%
33%
9.6


Wofford
245
103
6.0
82%
24%
36%
68%

18%
42%
40%
5.0
37%
39%
52%
21%
11.0


WCU
231
210
3.6
9%
43%
72%
17%

17%
42%
41%
7.6
56%
38%
83%
36%
11.2

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yeah, that is always a concern. This info is great though. It is not a foolproof means of determining if a team will do better or worse, but it is a pretty good data point. I need to compare last years numbers and correlate them to increased/decreased wins to see how it flushed out. I am almost certain the numbers will be all over the place though.

I think certain programs reload way better tha n others. But all other things being equal, having this data is very helpful entering a new season. Not knowing anything other than how they finished last season .. which pretty much means you slot preseason rankings based on end of last season. Which is way too simplistic... always good to use object9ve data to help make subjective decisions. By mid season, you generally know what you have and this is less useful at that point. But first 6-7 weeks, this stuff is very helpful.

[Keeper]

How much do I have to donate for them to change the background?

As a side note, if you lose a bunch of defensive starters on a team where the starting defense was bad, is that a good thing?


Ok, Smitty, background changed.

That'll be $500 please :D

[Smitty]

Ok, Smitty, background changed.

That'll be $500 please :D

I couldn't do $500 but I did make a small donation! Hope you didn't take offense to it, having a bigger monitor with all the badges tiled made me eyes cross.

[ElCid]

This won’t help you with that quest, but it does give a pretty good at-a-glance for the SoCon Teams Returning/Lost data...




2017
2017
Offensive
Stats
Lost



2017
Total
Tackles
Defensive
Stats
Lost





TEAM
RUSH
PASS
Starters
Lost
QB
RB
WR
OL

DL
LB
DB
Starters Lost
DEF
DL
LB
DB
Total Starters Lost


ETSU
71
202
2.1
0%
39%
20%
18%

20%
46%
34%
2.1
14%
0%
4%
34%
4.2


Samford
80
333
0.6
0%
17%
8%
3%

29%
40%
31%
5.3
49%
25%
64%
50%
5.9


Mercer
143
189
3.8
0%
22%
36%
42%

15%
44%
40%
3.1
21%
27%
39%
0%
6.9


Citadel
295
95
2.3
44%
33%
32%
0%

18%
38%
44%
5.6
45%
27%
42%
56%
7.9


Furman
226
198
5.9
96%
39%
49%
40%

21%
44%
35%
2.2
22%
0%
46%
4%
8.1


FCS Avg
152
209
4.0
31%
31%
35%
35%

23%
36%
41%
4.5
37%
37%
37%
36%
8.5


Chattanooga
78
190
5.1
1%
77%
43%
33%

30%
37%
33%
4.3
37%
34%
47%
30%
9.4


VMI
82
137
3.6
46%
50%
15%
47%

19%
47%
34%
6.0
56%
21%
87%
33%
9.6


Wofford
245
103
6.0
82%
24%
36%
68%

18%
42%
40%
5.0
37%
39%
52%
21%
11.0


WCU
231
210
3.6
9%
43%
72%
17%

17%
42%
41%
7.6
56%
38%
83%
36%
11.2




Then there is the rest of the story. For instance in regard to us. The 44% lost QB passing stats and 18 of the 33% RB stats lost are 1 guy, Allen, who graduated. He was a pretty good running/option QB. Passing, not so much, although he occasionally had some good ones. As it is now, Jordan Black looks to be in the drivers seat at QB, but who knows. He got lots of playing time last year (and the year before). He basically had only 5 offensive yards less on average per game than Allen did last year. He was responsible for 56% of passing and about 9% of rushing. And his completion % was way better than Allen's. So hopefully it should be seamless with the offensive weapons. The key will be our OL. I like the big fat 0% lost there. They were pretty young last year and it showed when it really counted. This season we will have 3 So, 1 Jr, and 1 Sr starting on the OL. The same 5 started every game last year. Only going to get better. And we will need it to, since we will have some work on defense with half our starters gone. Best we hold onto the ball as long as possible on O.:D We did get three grad transfers so hopefully that will give us some additional depth on D.

For the rest, just an initial impression based on the above numbers and articles I have read, in no particular order. I will look more in depth and post on the SOCON thread.

Overall Samford looks to be in the driver's seat with an intact Offense. They did lose 17% of their running back yards. So that's like what...13 yards a game.xlolxxlolx But woe be to them if Hodges goes down. They have some pretty big holes on D to fill as well. And we all know how they like to give up comfortable leads.

I think Wofford will be having issues. New coaches, lost a bit on O, especially the OL. Maybe not, but they are a bit too high in some of the polls based on the raw data points.

Not sure what to make of Furman. They lost a bit on O. They caught some teams flat footed last year. I really think that Colgate game on the road last year gave them a huge confidence boost which turned them around hard. I actually see them dropping off just a bit this year as compared to last even if their D seems solid. Should still be in the mix for sure.

Mercer is in good shape on paper. Last year they still lost a couple games they shouldn't have. They will turn the playoff corner when they stop doing that.

I'd love to say that WCU will be okay, but Newsome was a special player and they will feel his loss regardless of how good Adams may be. As far as their defense goes.......

Chattanooga was basically a road kill last year even if they finally started to gel late. They lost a bit but they may very well be a wildcard this year.

ETSU may turn a corner this year, but probably still too inconsistent to be a huge factor.

VMI...poor VMI. Who knows. They lost some good LBs. Maybe with all the new coaching blood, something gets better.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer is in good shape on paper. Last year they still lost a couple games they shouldn't have. They will turn the playoff corner when they stop doing that.Good stuff. I don't think I saw anything in your breakdown to which I would 'strenuously object' (I love that line in A Few Good Men).

And you are right on the money about Mercer. They had no business allowing Wofford to come back on them from 2 scores down and take their 1st lead of the game with about 3 minutes left. And, of course, they had no business losing to ETSU the week after taking Auburn to the wire. The Furman game could have gone either way depending on the outcomes of 5 or 6 "4th and..." plays. FU made the plays they needed to make when they needed to make them and Mercer did not. If the Bears turn those 3 around, the egg they laid on Offense vs. Samford doesn't hurt that bad and they make the Playoffs at 8-3/7-1

I thought the Mercer D was very good last year. They finished 3rd in Scoring D in the SoCon with 2 Top-Tier SEC Teams on the schedule and they held Samford's Scoring machine to 2 Offensive TD's. With only losing 1 Starter off the DLine (Jalen Penn - who 'rolled' regularly with 2 other DE's) and none of the secondary (other than moving a Part-Time starter, Stephen Houzah, to WR), I think they could be even stronger this season. They definitely lost some talent at LB - All-SoCon Starter, Lee Bennett, at Inside, and OLB Starter, Kyle Williams. But they have other P/T Starters coming back there and a very good-looking GR-Xfer from Miami (OH), Georgia-native, Brad Earnest, that may make some noise as an OLB or DE.

They were not at all a consistent Offensive Team last season, but maybe, with a new OC, a year of maturity for the SoCon FR of the Year at QB, and a few other key pieces that could gel this year, just maybe, they can get over the hump to at least be the SoCon's 3rd or 4th Team in the 2018 Playoffs.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So the "average" doesn't usually tell yoy very much, but here is the average % lost starters by conference ranked in descending order. This is further evidence the Colonial and Big Sky may further close gap this season ... then again, we'll let the games be played before that is decided. But SLC may see biggest fall, especially with UCA losing so much.



Conf
Lost
Total
% Lost


SLC
109.8
242.0
45%


IVY
76.1
176.0
43%


PL
65.0
154.0
42%


MVFC
88.7
220.0
40%


OVC
79.8
198.0
40%


Indep
25.6
66.0
39%


SOUTHERN
74.2
198.0
37%


BIG SKY
105.3
286.0
37%


CAA
97.2
264.0
37%


MEAC
80.2
220.0
36%


NEC
55.8
154.0
36%


PFL
79.5
220.0
36%


SWAC
78.6
220.0
36%


BIG SOUTH
45.3
132.0
34%


Grand Total
1,061.1
2,750.0
39%

[PaladinFan]

Not sure what to make of Furman. They lost a bit on O. They caught some teams flat footed last year. I really think that Colgate game on the road last year gave them a huge confidence boost which turned them around hard. I actually see them dropping off just a bit this year as compared to last even if their D seems solid. Should still be in the mix for sure.


I'm not sure they caught anyone flat footed last season. You could probably argue that Wofford was the only team that had cause to be surprised by how good the Paladins were. Everyone else was pretty much on notice most of the season.

It wouldn't shock me to see the Furman offense not be quite as impressive as it was last year. Mostly because it's hard to get too much better 32.6 points per game. Those numbers are in line with the league's top offense going back every year for the last 10 seasons or so on teams that didn't have Armanti Edwards.

I don't necessarily anticipate a big drop, though. Furman's offensive explosion wasn't necessarily a talent advantage, but a coaching advantage. They out-schemed most of their opponents with dozens of different looks where it was virtually impossible to anticipate what they were doing on any single play. That's completely the opposite of the team under Bruce Fowler, where you could almost call plays along with Furman's coaching staff.

I think Furman will miss QB Blazejowski and C Matt Schmidt the most. Other than those two, I think talented backups from last season will slot right in to the rotation and, in a few instances, I expect them to be better than their predecessors.