Round 2 Opening Odds

[footballer23]

Looks like the opening odds are out for this weekend. Most look pretty good, but there are a couple that really jump out:

JMU -20.5 over Stony Brook
JSU -7 over Kennesaw
Furman -3.5 over Wofford
USD -3 over Sam Houston
UCA -14.5 over UNH
SDSU -5.5 over UNI
NDSU -29.5 over San Diego
SUU -6 over Weber

Does Vegas know something with the lines for USD and/or Furman? Maybe it's just me, but those seem to jump out.

[katss07]

Those two really do jump out, although Furman has a very real shot to take down Wofford. I expect the USD, SHSU line to change. No reason the Kats should be home dogs. I think SHSU should be a 10 point favorite.

UCA, they should be about 21 point favorites. If they beat UNH by anything less than three scores, it will be a travesty.

[footballer23]

I agree on the Furman part, but I would have expected either Wofford to be a slight favorite or a pick 'em. I would think they'd change, too. With the way that South Dakota has been playing for the last month, you're probably pretty close with SHSU by 10. They are apparently expecting no defense for that game, though... over/under is 82.5

[Professor Chaos]

I agree on the Furman part, but I would have expected either Wofford to be a slight favorite or a pick 'em. I would think they'd change, too. With the way that South Dakota has been playing for the last month, you're probably pretty close with SHSU by 10. They are apparently expecting no defense for that game, though... over/under is 82.5
FWIW, Sagarin projects Wofford as a 2 point favorite with the home field and the bye.

[OL FU]

Pretty surprised that vegas has furman as the favorite. Not that the odds aren’t rather even but I wouldn’t place the odds that way.

[Milktruck74]

In FCS they just open up the odds and see what sticks.....you will see movement through the week. Because of the low volume of bets, the opening is never near the closing. I've actually seen an FCS game flip favorites by over 8 points. It opened at +5 for the Home and closed at +3 for the visitor. Just watch, all it takes is someone to lay a big bet on their team. With $10MM I could probably make JMU an underdog by kickoff.

[FUGameBreaker]

FWIW, Sagarin projects Wofford as a 2 point favorite with the home field and the bye.


Sagarin I am looking at has Furman as about a 1 point favorite even after factoring in home field:

23 SOUTHERN (AA)= 47.64 46.12 ( 23) TEAMS= 9 47.28 ( 23)
College Football 2017 through games of November 25 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.32] [ 2.32] [ 2.32] [ 2.32]
113 Furman AA = 58.37 8 4 49.32( 161) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.48 116 | 55.66 126 | 61.07 101
116 Samford AA = 58.15 8 4 51.22( 153) 0 1 | 0 1 | 57.19 117 | 57.43 118 | 59.67 109
129 Wofford AA = 55.09 9 2 45.04( 185) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.06 145 | 56.66 123 | 58.55 114
150 Mercer AA = 50.92 5 6 50.07( 159) 0 2 | 0 2 | 51.89 148 | 49.64 153 | 49.65 156
159 Western Carolina AA = 49.19 7 5 45.98( 179) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.74 161 | 48.61 157 | 49.81 155
173 The Citadel AA = 45.16 5 6 48.63( 167) 0 1 | 0 1 | 45.21 168 | 47.64 162 | 42.95 180
178 Chattanooga AA = 43.45 3 8 51.67( 149) 0 0 | 0 1 | 44.05 174 | 44.02 180 | 41.57 188
208 East Tennessee State AA = 35.65 4 7 48.96( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.43 206 | 34.93 209 | 35.95 207
245 VMI AA = 19.14 0 11 49.10( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 18.78 245 | 20.36 243 | 18.41 245

[footballer23]

Sam Houston is now a 2.5 point favorite, SDSU up to 8.5.

[Professor Chaos]

Sagarin I am looking at has Furman as about a 1 point favorite even after factoring in home field:

23 SOUTHERN (AA)= 47.64 46.12 ( 23) TEAMS= 9 47.28 ( 23)
College Football 2017 through games of November 25 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.32] [ 2.32] [ 2.32] [ 2.32]
113 Furman AA = 58.37 8 4 49.32( 161) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.48 116 | 55.66 126 | 61.07 101
116 Samford AA = 58.15 8 4 51.22( 153) 0 1 | 0 1 | 57.19 117 | 57.43 118 | 59.67 109
129 Wofford AA = 55.09 9 2 45.04( 185) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.06 145 | 56.66 123 | 58.55 114
150 Mercer AA = 50.92 5 6 50.07( 159) 0 2 | 0 2 | 51.89 148 | 49.64 153 | 49.65 156
159 Western Carolina AA = 49.19 7 5 45.98( 179) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.74 161 | 48.61 157 | 49.81 155
173 The Citadel AA = 45.16 5 6 48.63( 167) 0 1 | 0 1 | 45.21 168 | 47.64 162 | 42.95 180
178 Chattanooga AA = 43.45 3 8 51.67( 149) 0 0 | 0 1 | 44.05 174 | 44.02 180 | 41.57 188
208 East Tennessee State AA = 35.65 4 7 48.96( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.43 206 | 34.93 209 | 35.95 207
245 VMI AA = 19.14 0 11 49.10( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 18.78 245 | 20.36 243 | 18.41 245
Sagarin gives something like 2.6 points for a bye week. So with that Wofford is a slight favorite.

[caribbeanhen]

Sam Houston is now a 2.5 point favorite, SDSU up to 8.5.

hmm, to many points

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin gives something like 2.6 points for a bye week. So with that Wofford is a slight favorite.I don't think Sagarin actually does say anything about bye weeks, does he? I know BisonAudit over on Bisonville always calculates the probabilities with a factor for a bye week, but I thought that was something he added on his own. I know he's explained it a time or two where he got that from, but I'd have to go back and look for it.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[Lorne_Malvo]

NDSU is not going to cover. Thats easy money.

[CappinHard]

hmm, to many points

Are you making a toast?

[PantherRob82]

Bovada must be waiting until the last possible second. They haven’t done FCS games all season, so I was surprised to see the games pop up this week.

[BEAR]

UCA is now -14 vs UNH

IMO they will cover..easily. I've never seen a more disciplined team working so hard at practice like I have this week plus they've had two weeks to prepare.

Let's see if coach opens up the playbook or go reserved...xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

I don't think Sagarin actually does say anything about bye weeks, does he? I know BisonAudit over on Bisonville always calculates the probabilities with a factor for a bye week, but I thought that was something he added on his own. I know he's explained it a time or two where he got that from, but I'd have to go back and look for it.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
Could be. I guess I always just go with what audit posts since he does a much better job than I could tracking all that stuff.

[Terry2889]

UCA is now -14 vs UNH

IMO they will cover..easily. I've never seen a more disciplined team working so hard at practice like I have this week plus they've had two weeks to prepare.

Let's see if coach opens up the playbook or go reserved...xlolx

Yes in UCA's extensive playoff history success you have so much experience to fall back on when comparing this team to others ; ) can't wait for Saturday's games!

[Terry2889]

NDSU is not going to cover. Thats easy money.

That's an absurd line. Klieman from what I can tell is a pretty classy guy and wouldn't see the need to run it up.

[Bear84]

UCA is now -14 vs UNH

IMO they will cover..easily. I've never seen a more disciplined team working so hard at practice like I have this week plus they've had two weeks to prepare.

Let's see if coach opens up the playbook or go reserved...xlolx

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26658&stc=1

[caribbeanhen]

Are you making a toast?

a toast? We'll depends what day it is

[Lorne_Malvo]

That's an absurd line. Klieman from what I can tell is a pretty classy guy and wouldn't see the need to run it up.

Exactly. Coach K never runs up the score. Ever.

[KPSUL]

Those two really do jump out, although Furman has a very real shot to take down Wofford. I expect the USD, SHSU line to change. No reason the Kats should be home dogs. I think SHSU should be a 10 point favorite.

UCA, they should be about 21 point favorites. If they beat UNH by anything less than three scores, it will be a travesty.

I don't think you understand the meaning of the word "travesty". Surprise, unexpected, or disappointment would all be OK in your comment, but not travesty. For example Someone who doesn't have the requisite knowledge, analysis or writing skills to properly project the outcome of an athletic contest posting with authority would be a travesty.

[CappinHard]

a toast? We'll depends what day it is

It was just a joke referring to your typo. Here's a meme to really drive it home.

https://i.imgflip.com/20c6e7.jpg

P.s. See, memes/gifs do serve a purpose.

[CappinHard]

That's an absurd line. Klieman from what I can tell is a pretty classy guy and wouldn't see the need to run it up.

This is a joke, right?

[caribbeanhen]

What typo?

[CappinHard]

What typo?

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/to-too/

[Professor Chaos]

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/to-too/
Maybe he's just planning to go to a Boy Scout camp in Minnesota???

http://manypoint.org/

[CappinHard]

Maybe he's just planning to go to a Boy Scout camp in Minnesota???

http://manypoint.org/

Also a possibility.

[BEAR]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26658&stc=1

If they win I will tip my hat to them. I've already said that. They've got 14 years worth of experience. We've got a weak conference. Sure they can win..but will they. I'm pretty confident we will after watching them play last week, and they played..we didn't..and watching our guys practice..

By the way, this is how you get blood off a carpet..

http://www.real-fix.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/gif-2.gif

[caribbeanhen]

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/to-too/

it was no typo

[CappinHard]

it was no typo

The post that I replied to said "hmm, to many points". You used 'to' incorrectly instead of 'too'. That. Is. A. Typo. Why am I having to explain this?!

[caribbeanhen]

The post that I replied to said "hmm, to many points". You used 'to' incorrectly instead of 'too'. That. Is. A. Typo. Why am I having to explain this?!

because if it was a typo, that implies I knew how to spell it to begin with....haha