Southland Conference Quest for a Natty!

[BEAR]

Alright Southland fans, we have 3 teams in the hunt for the national title.

Up first, Nicholls hosts South Dakota.

Then the next week UCA and Sam Houston await their opponents.

How's it looking for these teams?!

Let's get the hype started with a video!

https://www.facebook.com/ucasports/videos/10154789511456580/


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vk_M13Oal5A

[katss07]

I want to see packed stadiums at UCA and SHSU in the second round and potentially the quarterfinals! People need to come out and show some support! One SLC team is going to be eliminated by the second
round. Even if Nicholls wins, they have to play SHSU. Hope we get a rematch with UCA....in Frisco!!
Good luck to you purple bears.

[JSUSoutherner]

Oh mah ****ing gawd..... I can't find my popocorn!

[BEAR]

Exactly.

Sadly UCA fans tail off toward the end of the season. Hunting, cold weather, and general lack of advertising of the games makes it a horrible attendance for our post season games. Pathetic if you ask me.

But I will be there...

Good luck to your Bearkats. Let's get one for the SLC this year. xbowx

[Daytripper]

Regardless of the trolls who will try to hijack this thread, thanks for starting it. To be honest, I think Nicholls will get rolled by USD. The only way they stay in it is if they get multiple turnovers and turn them into points. The Yote offense will give them the same trouble that ours did. I would like to see them be competitive, and maybe even pull out a win, but I don't see it happening.

[BEAR]

Oh mah ****ing gawd..... I can't find my popocorn!

That's alright. ARAMARK sells stale popcorn at every home game!

http://consumermediallc.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/popcorn.jpg

[Daytripper]

Oh mah ****ing gawd..... I can't find my popocorn!

Yeah, the OVC playoff thread is much bett... oh, wait.

[BEAR]

Regardless of the trolls who will try to hijack this thread, thanks for starting it. To be honest, I think Nicholls will get rolled by USD. The only way they stay in it is if they get multiple turnovers and turn them into points. The Yote offense will give them the same trouble that ours did. I would like to see them be competitive, and maybe even pull out a win, but I don't see it happening.


Me either. I wonder if any fans of the other teams think any of the three SLC teams have a chance at going to Frisco.

Having watched all three I will say UCA has the best chance, then SHSU, then Nicholls. If UCA makes it to the semis they will likely face JMU. If SHSU makes it they will most likely face NDSU. But honestly I don't see UCA getting by SDSU. They're a talented team.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah, the OVC playoff thread is much bett... oh, wait.
Do I look like a Chattown to you?

[Daytripper]

Me either. I wonder if any fans of the other teams think any of the three SLC teams have a chance at going to Frisco.

Having watched all three I will say UCA has the best chance, then SHSU, then Nicholls. If UCA makes it to the semis they will likely face JMU. If SHSU makes it they will most likely face NDSU. But honestly I don't see UCA getting by SDSU. They're a talented team.

Agree. UCA is one of the most balanced and well-rounded teams in the playoffs. They won't get blown out by anybody and are built to grind it out if necessary. if they eventually face JMU, it will be a really good game.j

[beerkat]

UCA has the best shot with only 1 potential road game before Frisco, SHSU has the potential of back to back road games to get to Frisco which is tough, Nicholls would have to run an insane gauntlet to get there which I just don't see happening.

[Professor Chaos]

Me either. I wonder if any fans of the other teams think any of the three SLC teams have a chance at going to Frisco.

Having watched all three I will say UCA has the best chance, then SHSU, then Nicholls. If UCA makes it to the semis they will likely face JMU. If SHSU makes it they will most likely face NDSU. But honestly I don't see UCA getting by SDSU. They're a talented team.
There's a guy on Bisonville (bisonaudit) that uses the Sagarin ratings (I know... everyone's favorite!) to calculate the % chance each team has to advance in each round all they way to winning in Frisco. These were his calculations this year:


Let the games begin! 2.61 for a bye. 2.31 for home field.

Sag (Seed) Team............. Rd1.... Rd2.... Qtr.... Semi.... Final
73.00 (1) James Madison.......... 95.0% 76.5% 54.4% 26.1%
39.58 Lehigh................... 8.3%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
56.07 Stony Brook......... 91.7%. 4.9%.. 1.3%. 0.2%.. 0.0%

62.56 (8) Southern Utah.......... 57.7% 11.6%. 3.7%.. 0.8%
66.58 Western Illinois.... 54.6% 25.9%. 7.3%.. 3.0%.. 0.9%
62.70 Weber State........ 45.4% 16.4%.. 3.3%.. 1.1%. 0.2%


70.88 (5) South Dakota State... 78.1% 55.0% 25.4% 10.8%
47.91 Monmouth-NJ......... 6.7%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
65.97 Northern Iowa...... 93.3% 21.8% 12.5%. 4.0%.. 1.2%

62.20 (4) Central Arkansas........ 92.1% 32.2%. 8.1%.. 1.8%
44.45 Central Connecticut 30.2%. 1.4%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
49.14 New Hampshire..... 69.8%. 6.4%.. 0.3%. 0.0%.. 0.0%




63.60 (3) Jacksonville State....... 75.9% 47.8%. 9.0%.. 2.8%
59.70 Samford............... 47.0% 12.1%. 5.5%.. 0.7%. 0.1%
58.40 Kennesaw State.... 53.0% 12.0%. 5.1%.. 0.6%. 0.1%

57.34 (6) Sam Houston State.... 46.9% 15.2%. 1.6%.. 0.3%
65.03 South Dakota....... 89.1% 51.8% 26.2%. 5.4%.. 1.9%
46.04 Nicholls State........ 10.9%. 1.3%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


55.37 (7) Wofford.................... 62.3%. 3.8%.. 1.1%. 0.2%
58.60 Furman................ 69.5% 31.3%. 2.7%.. 0.9%. 0.2%
49.42 Elon..................... 30.5%. 6.4%.. 0.2%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

76.20 (2) North Dakota State.... 96.3% 91.4% 80.1% 52.5%
45.25 San Diego............. 13.9%. 0.1%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
57.61 Northern Arizona... 86.1%. 3.6%.. 1.9%. 0.6%.. 0.1%

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?38402-2017-Sagarin-Says&p=1241019#post1241019

I always think these are pretty interesting but, as has been discussed ad nauseum on this board, Sagarin's ratings really like the MVFC teams so I'm sure I think it's more interesting than fans of other teams would.

So to answer your question Sagarin predicts that UCA has a 8.1% chance to make it to Frisco while SHSU has a 1.6% chance and Nicholls has a <0.1% chance.

[BEAR]

Interesting stats for sure.

I think once you get to the quarter finals it becomes a "jimmys and joes" instead of stats. As I said looking at SDSU and how well they performed even at home I think it will be tough for UCA. Then likely to go to JMU... man that's tough. I'm optimistic because we do have a good team and I think it is possible to make it to the JMU round. But we'll see. I'll just stay optimistic. Even if we lose to JMU, if we make it that far, it won't be by 50 points. We're a balanced team with great coaches. That will be an interesting game for sure.

[McNeese75]

Oh mah ****ing gawd..... I can't find my popocorn!

You just can't help yourself can you??? Always trolling the SLC threads. Just remember, JSU got OUT of the Southland so they could get in a softer conference.

[JSUSoutherner]

You just can't help yourself can you??? Always trolling the SLC threads. Just remember, JSU got OUT of the Southland so they could get in a softer conference.
You clearly don't understand how money works.

Getting out out of the Southland was a financial move. We sucked while we were in the Southland and sucked after we left.

[McNeese75]

You clearly don't understand how money works.

Getting out out of the Southland was a financial move. We sucked while we were in the Southland and sucked after we left.

I am pretty sure I know how money works a hell of a lot better than you xnodx. And yes, I know it was a money move to get closer games for JSU, just wanted to yank on that chain you are always dangling.

[JSUSoutherner]

I am pretty sure I know how money works a hell of a lot better than you xnodx. And yes, I know it was a money move to get closer games for JSU, just wanted to yank on that chain you are always dangling.
Fair.

[katss07]

UCA has the easiest road. Then SHSU. Nicholls will be lucky to be out of round one. I think they can squeeze by with a win against USD, but no way the get by SHSU, JSU and NDSU. If I were to make predictions I would say UCA losses in the semis, Sam in the semis or quarterfinals and Nicholls in round two.

Hope they get a good crowd in Louisiana over the weekend. Nicholls fans: get your butt to the stadium. Give this team support, the need it and deserve it!

[Katfan]

Do I look like a Chattown to you?
Having seen Chattown in awhile. Better luck next year