Samford Versus Kennesaw State - 1st Round Playoffs

[youcanbankit]

This should be a great match up next Saturday. Samford who defeated KSU the first game of the season, was the only loss for the KSU team so far this season. 2:00 PM start also view-able on ESPN 3.

I give the nod to Samford since they defeated the #1 team in the Big South (KSU), the #1 team in the SoCon (Wofford) and 4 top 25 ranked FCS teams on their way to an 8-3 record. KSU is a really good team coming in at 10-1 defeating teams like Liberty University and Monmouth. Should be a great match up.

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[CID1990]

SU has also seen the TO three times this season. I think they'll win, but KSU seems to have improved as the season went along.

Frankly, this matchup should not be happening but it is what it is


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

My take on Samford: Their defense is bend but don't break, especially on the running game. That's a weird thing to say, but hear me out: They're probably the one team in the country (at least still playing) that had to play multiple teams in the top 15 in terms or rushing: Furman, Wofford, Kennesaw, The Citadel, Western Carolina and of course UGA yet they "only" allow about 180 yards per carry on the ground (all of those teams average 240+). Teams will rack up yardage, running up and down the field on Samford, but they manage to force stops whether they be fourth down conversions or field goals.

That's the reason they are as good as they are. It's not because of the air raid, it's because of the defense.

Still, Kelvin McKnight is a monster and the fact that he is healthy again is huge and Devlin Hodges is the best pure-pocket passer the Socon has seen since Scott Riddle from Elon about a decade ago.

Kennesaw is good and will probably run the best pure-triple option Samford will see this year (Furman and Wofford are more of a multiple option with shotgun and passing than they are a pure-TO and the Citadel just wasn't good on offense this year). I'm not really sure about Kennesaw's defense. Numbers or not, they've produced this year, but their opponents aren't as good as Hodges and McKnight. Usually in these games where one team comes from a weaker conference than another, you see breakdowns in defense first and then offense efficiency. The big south has made strides this year, but again they aren't the Socon. We saw something similar when Monmouth got routed by Kennesaw this week; they weren't used to the overall talent and got eclipsed by it.

Now, I don't think it'll be a blowout, but I think Samford benefits from seeing film from their last game + Kennesaw's North Greenville game (ironically, the one team that played KSU close down this stretch was a D2 team that runs an air-raid-like offense) more so than Kennesaw. Why? Because the pure-TO option depends more on read tactics than it does a grand strategy, while air raids are more strategic than tactical (if that makes sense).

So, it'll be an interesting game.

[katss07]

Samford won the first matchup in a good close game. Having that film from the first game helps, big time. KSU looked great in their win. For a young program it is great to see them in the playoffs. But the Big South is the SoCon’s lil brother. I expect nothing different. It may come down to the final possession, but the Bulldogs come out on top.

Prediction: Samford 26-21 KSU

[sudog03]

Not really sure I'd qualify our defense as "bend-but don't break" or that teams "ran up and down the field on Samford". We led the league in fewest yards allowed per play and scoring defense when looking at conference only games. Furman came into yesterday's game averaging almost 6 yards per carry against SoCon defenses. We held them to 3.7 per carry. But, yes, our defense is a huge part of our success.

[JSUSoutherner]

xcoffeex

[Reign of Terrier]

Not really sure I'd qualify our defense as "bend-but don't break" or that teams "ran up and down the field on Samford". We led the league in fewest yards allowed per play and scoring defense when looking at conference only games. Furman came into yesterday's game averaging almost 6 yards per carry against SoCon defenses. We held them to 3.7 per carry. But, yes, our defense is a huge part of our success.

I think it's fair to say teams ran up and down the field on Samford but failed to score. Kennesaw had over 500 yards of offense against Samford. Wofford, Furman and Western had north of 400. west Georgia or Alabama or whatever it is had a good game against Samford as well.

If you want to get really specific with stats and talk about it only in conference play, I can dig that (I believe conference stats are usually more predictive than OOC...usually), especially since it's more recent (FBS games also throw that number off), but regardless there's a consistent trend of Samford games being shoot outs without the points. Though Samford's performances against ETSU and Mercer was more impressive than Wofford's, other than that there's not much of a difference.

[sudog03]

Well sure, our totals are always going to be skewed because of the pace that our offense plays leading to a higher number of plays defended.

[Reign of Terrier]

Well sure, our totals are always going to be skewed because of the pace that our offense plays leading to a higher number of plays defended.

Well, I don't disagree, but what's interesting about Samford is that they only average about 12 quality possession a game (defined as a possession in which you aren't trying to run out the clock) and 13 on defense.

That's more than a team like Wofford or Furman who are both at 11, but overall the offensive pace doesn't seem to have an effect on the defense for other teams.

The weird thing about Samford is that their offense isn't nearly as efficient as you'd think it is, and the defense is so much more efficient than you'd think

[SU FAN]

we got this one, ill be there!!!

[NorthChuckSouth]

Samford, please, beat them by 90

[ming01]

Samford has fared well vs triple option. Ksu is a sneaky team though.

[ElCid]

I think it's fair to say teams ran up and down the field on Samford but failed to score. Kennesaw had over 500 yards of offense against Samford. Wofford, Furman and Western had north of 400. west Georgia or Alabama or whatever it is had a good game against Samford as well.

If you want to get really specific with stats and talk about it only in conference play, I can dig that (I believe conference stats are usually more predictive than OOC...usually), especially since it's more recent (FBS games also throw that number off), but regardless there's a consistent trend of Samford games being shoot outs without the points. Though Samford's performances against ETSU and Mercer was more impressive than Wofford's, other than that there's not much of a difference.

We had 7 trips into Samford territory. 5 in the red zone, 2 just outside. Scored twice. They didn't break often. They did hold us to under 200 on the ground. Had to go to the air, but 150+ didn't matter. I think Samford wins by 10.

[longtimemocfan]

I guess no Kennesaw St. posters ? When Samford gets a rhythm with their offense it’s hard to stop. Hopefully they will have some decent weather.

[kdinva]

Frankly, this matchup should not be happening but it is what it is


I agree, committee didn't do enough to not have two rematches take place......should have flip-flopped Elon and Kenny St.'s opponents.....

[PurpleStreamers]

I agree, committee didn't do enough to not have two rematches take place......should have flip-flopped Elon and Kenny St.'s opponents.....

Yeah, as bad as the at-large selections were, and as unbalanced as the two sides of the bracket are thanks to the typical overseeing of a certain team, this might've actually been the committee's dumbest move. All four teams were "regional" enough of any geographic criteria.

[sudog03]

Probably had to do with they didn't want to pay for a plane ride. Elon and Samford are more than 400 miles apart and isn't that when the NCAA has to pay for a team to fly to it's opponent?

[SU DOG]

They say that the delay from Hurricane Harvey is the reason they lost at Homewood. Hopefully, "Hurricane Hodges" will be one reason they will lose in Kennesaw.

[PaladinFan]

Samford needs to get the ref crew from Saturday.

Was watching the highlights from the game (well done, by the way) and stopped on Samford's goal line "stand" in the first half https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYEhCHGUgVw&t=188s (Starting at 2:08)

Someone needs to explain to me how a running backs shoulder pads are in the endzone, but he's stopped short of the goal line. Sort of disheartening to see that call in what was eventually a six point game.

Of course, calls are calls. Life goes on.

[scsudawg]

I didn't go to KSU but I work there.....

I'm a SC State grad but I do support KSU of course...

KSU run the ball all day....

The defense is up some and down some...but on the offensive side of the ball in a 1 on 1 situation it will be hard to defend Justin Sumter...he can catch almost anything

It should be a great game on this coming Saturday and if I get home in time I will probably be in the building

[Kennesaw07]

I'd like to welcome our guests from Samford that are making the trip to K-town. Feel free to stop by my tailgate and catch an early game. Round two is certainly intriguing due to the competitive nature of the previous game. However, I'm certain both teams have made large strides since week one. So, this will certainly be a nice litmus test for the Owls moving forward.

Kennesaw suffered from the lack of instant replay at Samford. Justin Sumpter had a TD that was ruled incomplete. What is the deal here? It is 2017.

https://twitter.com/KSUOwlHowl/status/903625472227123201/photo/1
(https://twitter.com/KSUOwlHowl/status/903625472227123201/photo/1)
Prediction 31-24 Owls.

[SU DOG]

That is a disappointing post PaladinFan. Get over it. Maybe you don't realize it, but most anybody reading this, especially at this late date, is thinking SOUR GRAPES. From my 50 yard line seat, I saw several missed calls, or no calls, that I thought went in Furman's favor. FU 2 penalties for 17 yards, Samford 6 for 67 yards, and you are saying we need this crew, inferring that they cheated you? The only thing someone needs to explain to you is that this is another week, and you should be concentrating on Elon. BTW, whip'um good and hopefully both our teams will represent the SoCon well.

[PaladinFan]

That is a disappointing post PaladinFan. Get over it. Maybe you don't realize it, but most anybody reading this, especially at this late date, is thinking SOUR GRAPES. From my 50 yard line seat, I saw several missed calls, or no calls, that I thought went in Furman's favor. FU 2 penalties for 17 yards, Samford 6 for 67 yards, and you are saying we need this crew, inferring that they cheated you? The only thing someone needs to explain to you is that this is another week, and you should be concentrating on Elon. BTW, whip'um good and hopefully both our teams will represent the SoCon well.

I take the same approach in every game. You need to play well enough so the refs don't eventually have to make a call that hoses you. Furman didn't.

You may not have already known this, but Furman is the least penalized team in the SoCon (or, maybe second along with VMI). They, generally, don't commit many penalties. So, being flagged twice really wasn't surprising. That's pretty much been every week.

There were plenty of missed calls. While I appreciate "letting them play," I thought there were probably half a dozen defensive holding penalties on Samford that were not called. There were a few PI calls that were never flagged against Furman on some of the downfield throws.

Without video review, you live with what the calls are. That's life. I'm just glad the video showed what I thought I saw in real time.

Oddly enough, I don't really think it made much of a difference from a bird's eye view. I mean, Furman had a shot at a conference title, but I think most bracektologist saw a world where Furman could face both Elon and Wofford in the first two rounds. So, conference title aside, the win did a lot for Samford, but didn't really move the needle for Furman. We ended up where we probably would have been anyway.

You can thank us later xthumbsupx

[SU DOG]

I take the same approach in every game. You need to play well enough so the refs don't eventually have to make a call that hoses you. Furman didn't.

You may not have already known this, but Furman is the least penalized team in the SoCon (or, maybe second along with VMI). They, generally, don't commit many penalties. So, being flagged twice really wasn't surprising. That's pretty much been every week.

There were plenty of missed calls. While I appreciate "letting them play," I thought there were probably half a dozen defensive holding penalties on Samford that were not called. There were a few PI calls that were never flagged against Furman on some of the downfield throws.

Without video review, you live with what the calls are. That's life. I'm just glad the video showed what I thought I saw in real time.

Oddly enough, I don't really think it made much of a difference from a bird's eye view. I mean, Furman had a shot at a conference title, but I think most bracektologist saw a world where Furman could face both Elon and Wofford in the first two rounds. So, conference title aside, the win did a lot for Samford, but didn't really move the needle for Furman. We ended up where we probably would have been anyway.

You can thank us later xthumbsupx

Not thanking Furman, not thinking Furman. THIS is Playoffs week.

[ElCid]

I didn't go to KSU but I work there.....

I'm a SC State grad but I do support KSU of course...

KSU run the ball all day....

The defense is up some and down some...but on the offensive side of the ball in a 1 on 1 situation it will be hard to defend Justin Sumter...he can catch almost anything

It should be a great game on this coming Saturday and if I get home in time I will probably be in the building

Welcome! Nice to see a Kennesaw St fan, or SC State fan, for that matter. How are the vibes on campus? Indifferent or excited?

[sudog03]

west Georgia or Alabama or whatever it is had a good game against Samford as well.

It was West Alabama. Very good D2 team. Here's some Massey ratings for some perspective:

Furman 136
Wofford 150
West Al. 180
WCU 185
Mercer 187
Citadel 228
UTC 232
ETSU 290
Presby 318
Gardner Webb 356
VMI 495

Thankfully, our defense has improved mightily since then.

[FUBeAR]

Samford needs to get the ref crew from Saturday.

Was watching the highlights from the game (well done, by the way) and stopped on Samford's goal line "stand" in the first half https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYEhCHGUgVw&t=188s (Starting at 2:08)

Someone needs to explain to me how a running backs shoulder pads are in the endzone, but he's stopped short of the goal line. Sort of disheartening to see that call in what was eventually a six point game.

Of course, calls are calls. Life goes on.

Seems like we've been here before...a bit of deja vu, perhaps...

On this one, I'll grant you that it looks unbelievably impossible that the ball (which we cannot see at all) is not in the end zone, when it appears his entire upper body is in there.

BUT...watch the clip just before that - the field-level end zone shot - the one that begins at 2:04. If I'm not mistaken, these 2 clips are the same play from different cameras. In the 2:04 one, it doesn't look like he crossed the plane. I can't explain how it can look so different from these 2 angles....but, to me, a Furman Fan, who DESPERATELY wanted to see a win on Saturday, I couldn't overturn that call based on these 2 video clips.

Let's take our bullpup freen's advice and move on to Flagellating the Formerly Fightin' Christians and let them focus on motorboating the hooters...something like that.

[FUGameBreaker]

Good luck on Saturday Samford, go SoCon!

[Reign of Terrier]

It was West Alabama. Very good D2 team. Here's some Massey ratings for some perspective:

Furman 136
Wofford 150
West Al. 180
WCU 185
Mercer 187
Citadel 228
UTC 232
ETSU 290
Presby 318
Gardner Webb 356
VMI 495

Thankfully, our defense has improved mightily since then.

I don't doubt they are a good team, I've heard great things about them, seriously.

Having said that, that performance falls in line with the trend of "letting teams go up and down the field but stopping them"


As for officiating, it is what it is. In the Socon, I think there's a systemic problem with officiating. We have 6 teams in the top 32 or so in least penalized in terms of penalties called, which is a very weird coincidence that all Socon teams have the same amount of discipline...color me skeptical)

Also, where are the KSU fans???

[ElCid]

I don't doubt they are a good team, I've heard great things about them, seriously.

Having said that, that performance falls in line with the trend of "letting teams go up and down the field but stopping them"


As for officiating, it is what it is. In the Socon, I think there's a systemic problem with officiating. We have 6 teams in the top 32 or so in least penalized in terms of penalties called, which is a very weird coincidence that all Socon teams have the same amount of discipline...color me skeptical)

Also, where are the KSU fans???

What I find interesting is for SOCON games only, opponents of The Citadel are the least penalized per game. In fact, and Spike has mentioned this as well, our opponents are flagged less than the least penalized team overall (VMI). I guess we just bring out the best in teams!?! Teams don't get flagged much playing us. But in general the SOCON is generally pretty disciplined.

[JSUSoutherner]

So I haven't seen KSU play.

Is it a Wing T style TO like Paul Johnson runs at Tech or a wishbone offense?

[sudog03]

It's a Paul Johnson offense, complete with the two big talented WR's that Tech always seems to have to throw the ball up to.

[JSUSoutherner]

It's a Paul Johnson offense, complete with the two big talented WR's that Tech always seems to have to throw the ball up to.
Oh. So the type of offense we spent all offseason working on.

Excellent.

[sudog03]

Must be nice to play in a league so weak you can spend all off-season on just one non-conference opponent. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

So I haven't seen KSU play.

Is it a Wing T style TO like Paul Johnson runs at Tech or a wishbone offense?

Yes, the KSU head coach is basically from the Paul Johnson/Jeff Monken (current coach at Army, former GSU coach when they were FCS) tree.

The difference is, from what little I've seen them, is that KSU's QB has the best balance of any option QB in the country in terms of being able to throw it well but also run it (note: I don't count Furman's Pj Blazejowski as an option QB). He's kind of like Jaybo Shaw but a better runner (if you were around here when GSU was a thing)

When I say they're more of a pure option offense, I'm using the Socon baseline. Arguably Furman's an option offense, but they pass about 15-20 times a game which is like twice as much as your typical option offense. Wofford's primarily an option offense but we do a lot more passing (at least successful passing) than a team like the Citadel, which is more of the traditional option.

Basically, a lot of "option" teams nowadays run a lot of shotgun sets, but Kennesaw and the Citadel run basically everything out from under center. Kennesaw passes it about the success rate of Wofford (~50% completion percentage with about 10-12 throws a game), with the big difference being that they run it pretty much all under center (I think) and they run it, at least statistically, with admittedly a weaker SOS, a lot better.

I hope that makes sense, it's hard to capture the nuances of the triple option and the teams who run it if you don't watch it regularly. Every team has their own flavor.

- - - Updated - - -

Addendum, I've not watched many Tech or KSU games this year but Tech throws more than KSU, easily.

[Corn_3024]

KSU Fan here. More of a lurker than a poster, but excited to host in the first round. It's a tough matchup as air raid type offenses do give us problems. We are a very different team from opening week, and I'm sure Samford is as well. Our guys will be motivated for this one for sure.

For those asking, yes we run primarily from under center. We have some gun formations, like most option teams, but those plays aren't the norm. Execution and turnovers, like any game every, will be the deciding factor.

[cx500d]

KSU Fan here. More of a lurker than a poster, but excited to host in the first round. It's a tough matchup as air raid type offenses do give us problems. We are a very different team from opening week, and I'm sure Samford is as well. Our guys will be motivated for this one for sure.

For those asking, yes we run primarily from under center. We have some gun formations, like most option teams, but those plays aren't the norm. Execution and turnovers, like any game every, will be the deciding factor.


I watched the game on Saturday, and watching the Kennesaw QB taking the snap crouched way low reminded me of our QB's back in the days we ran the veer.

[sudog03]

Personally, I think the success of their passing game is much due much more to the ability of the WR's, but the QB is great at the read game, no doubt. 15, Justin Sumpter is a real hand full, and very tough matchup 1v1 which is pretty much what their offense makes you do.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yes, the KSU head coach is basically from the Paul Johnson/Jeff Monken (current coach at Army, former GSU coach when they were FCS) tree.

The difference is, from what little I've seen them, is that KSU's QB has the best balance of any option QB in the country in terms of being able to throw it well but also run it (note: I don't count Furman's Pj Blazejowski as an option QB). He's kind of like Jaybo Shaw but a better runner (if you were around here when GSU was a thing)

When I say they're more of a pure option offense, I'm using the Socon baseline. Arguably Furman's an option offense, but they pass about 15-20 times a game which is like twice as much as your typical option offense. Wofford's primarily an option offense but we do a lot more passing (at least successful passing) than a team like the Citadel, which is more of the traditional option.

Basically, a lot of "option" teams nowadays run a lot of shotgun sets, but Kennesaw and the Citadel run basically everything out from under center. Kennesaw passes it about the success rate of Wofford (~50% completion percentage with about 10-12 throws a game), with the big difference being that they run it pretty much all under center (I think) and they run it, at least statistically, with admittedly a weaker SOS, a lot better.

I hope that makes sense, it's hard to capture the nuances of the triple option and the teams who run it if you don't watch it regularly. Every team has their own flavor.

- - - Updated - - -

Addendum, I've not watched many Tech or KSU games this year but Tech throws more than KSU, easily.
I'm pretty familiar with Paul Johnson's offense. I actually asked whether it was his style or not because I noticed Bohannon was at Southern with Paul Johnson in the 90's.

[youcanbankit]

Samford could be the dark horse this year. They have defeated the Big South Champion, The SoCon Champion and 4 top 25 teams.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26571&stc=1

[ksu_owls]

Hello from a KSU fan! Our message threads are so similar. We are pretty sure we will win, y'all are very sure y'all will win-- fun stuff!

One positive thing about being a team in our 3rd year is I can almost literally remember every game we've played. I remember the disappointment of losing at CSU at the end of our second season (wasn't even close). I remember being so nervous to play SAMFORD as our opener of our 3rd season, I was sure we would get stomped. And then, I think to the surprise of both teams, we really hung right in there. IMO, we've had more success this season than we could have imagined. I'm glad we are in a position to play a team we know we can beat (easy, that's not a slam! just in reference to the closeness of the first game). We have nothing to lose. No one would be surprised that a 3rd year team didn't beat a notable FCS opponent (one that has already beat us) in our first ever playoff game; however, I think SU would be embarrassed. I would take our position in this match up any day.

What's the feeling around SU this week? We are pumped at KSU! It's going to be a fun day. Anyone coming to the game feel free to stop by our tailgate in the gold lot. We promise to be very welcoming and would enjoy meeting any/all of you.

Go Owls!

[scsudawg]

Welcome! Nice to see a Kennesaw St fan, or SC State fan, for that matter. How are the vibes on campus? Indifferent or excited?


Hey thanks for the welcome!

So here on campus the dynamics are a little weird.

There is actually more excitement among the faculty and staff who have been at KSU a long time.

KSU is suffering from being a commuter school. It literally use to be a 2 year college back in the 60's.

They majority of fans here didn't even go to KSU but it reminds me of when Coastal Carolina started football. The majority of the fans were older and just apart of the community. That is how the majority of the fan base is at this point.

The students that come to KSU still are mainly commuters from the surrounding areas with family ties to the other bigger schools(UGA and GATech).

It will take some time as the school is becoming more of a traditional campus to get the students fully engaged. The good thing as far as football talent KSU has a plethora of talent in the Atlanta Metro area. As the campus is 24 miles from downtown ATL it really seems like you are not that close to the city and some recruits like that.

I for one am excited for the team and if they win on this weekend I will probably take the quick hour and a half drive to Jacksonville State next weekend.

[youcanbankit]

I would love to see Samford match up against JSU...