FCS Playoff Field Prediction: 11/13/2017 (1 week to go)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

FCS Playoffs ‘Til I Die: Projecting the 2017 #FCSPlayoff Field, 11/13/2017

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-11132017/

[PantherRob82]

FCS Playoffs ‘Til I Die: Projecting the 2017 #FCSPlayoff Field, 11/13/2017

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-11132017/

Get this garbage out of here. Your spam ads lock up the browser on my phone with a “you have won” pop up before the page even loads.

[ming01]

Monmouth at Delaware vs 1 JMU
San Diego at Weber St vs 8 SUU
WIU at Elon vs 5 Wofford
Lehigh at USD vs 4 UCA

Nicholls at Samford vs 3 JSU
McNeese at UNI vs 6 SHSU
CCSU at UNH vs 7 Stony Brook
EWU at SDSU vs 2 NDSU

I have USD beating SDSU, which is why I don't have SDSU seeded.

[CappinHard]

Monmouth at Delaware vs 1 JMU
San Diego at Weber St vs 8 SUU
WIU at Elon vs 5 Wofford
Lehigh at USD vs 4 UCA

Nicholls at Samford vs 3 JSU
McNeese at UNI vs 6 SHSU
CCSU at UNH vs 7 Stony Brook
EWU at SDSU vs 2 NDSU

I have USD beating SDSU, which is why I don't have SDSU seeded.

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/a2/03/cc/a203cc8e154073a89db3a26791bd5e60--talladega-nights-ricky-bobby.jpg

[Professor Chaos]

https://i.pinimg.com/236x/a2/03/cc/a203cc8e154073a89db3a26791bd5e60--talladega-nights-ricky-bobby.jpg
On one hand SDSU has yet to lay their seemingly yearly late season egg but on the other USD's secondary is baaaaaaaad (probably due a lot to suspensions) which is not going to be good when they face receivers as good as Weineke and Goedert. I'm torn.

[CappinHard]

On one hand SDSU has yet to lay their seemingly yearly late season egg but on the other USD's secondary is baaaaaaaad (probably due a lot to suspensions) which is not going to be good when they face receivers as good as Weineke and Goedert. I'm torn.

I'm interested to see what the spread will be for this one, my guess is SDSU by 3. SDSU should (SHOULD) beat them due to their secondary issues like you mentioned, plus TC seems to be playing very well right now. I see that continuing and SDSU winning by 13. I would say more, but USD knows they might need a win to get in, which could help or hurt them depending on how they handle it.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm interested to see what the spread will be for this one, my guess is SDSU by 3. SDSU should (SHOULD) beat them due to their secondary issues like you mentioned, plus TC seems to be playing very well right now. I see that continuing and SDSU winning by 13. I would say more, but USD knows they might need a win to get in, which could help or hurt them depending on how they handle it.
If I had to put money down I'd put it on SDSU for anything -7 or less. That said I might just pick USD in the pick 'em because I don't lose any money being wrong there. :p

[Reign of Terrier]

This year I feel less confident than in prior years about predicting the field. I think on Saturday night/sunday morning I'll post three or four different fields for different criteria (if the committee cares about Sagarin, if the field is politicized and wants more presentation, etc)

[Lehigh Football Nation]

This year I feel less confident than in prior years about predicting the field. I think on Saturday night/sunday morning I'll post three or four different fields for different criteria (if the committee cares about Sagarin, if the field is politicized and wants more presentation, etc)

One of the big question marks I had filling out my bracket was what to do with Samford. If they win, I think they're in, but if they lose, will they have enough? The fact that they would only have six D-I wins to me put them on the outside looking in.

Also interesting: if Samford wins, does Furman still get in automatically? I think yes, but I don't feel 100% certain about that.

So much appears to hinge on how many SoCon teams the Committee will take. Two are locks. Will they pick a third, or maybe a fourth as well? Every bracket hinges on this fact, IMO.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'm also having a hard time figuring out about the Big Sky as well. That NAU loss to Montana is really messing things up, as is Montana's cupcake schedule. Does the committee have the guts to keep a 7-4 NAU team out of the playoffs (assuming they lose) that beat Illinois State in favor of an 8-3 team who has a out-of-conference schedule that features Valpo and Savannah State?

[Professor Chaos]

I'm also having a hard time figuring out about the Big Sky as well. That NAU loss to Montana is really messing things up, as is Montana's cupcake schedule. Does the committee have the guts to keep a 7-4 NAU team out of the playoffs (assuming they lose) that beat Illinois State in favor of an 8-3 team who has a out-of-conference schedule that features Valpo and Savannah State?
I think NAU is in serious trouble if they lose to SUU. If ISUr beats NDSU that'll help them out but if not ISUr is 6-5 and out. Sacramento St and UC Davis play each other and they would be NAU's two best in conference wins so they'd either have a win over 7-4 Sac St or wins over 6-5 Sac St and 6-5 UC Davis as their only other win over a team with a winning record. That is a shaky resume to say the least for a 7-4 team.

[Catbooster]

I think NAU is in serious trouble if they lose to SUU. If ISUr beats NDSU that'll help them out but if not ISUr is 6-5 and out. Sacramento St and UC Davis play each other and they would be NAU's two best in conference wins so they'd either have a win over 7-4 Sac St or wins over 6-5 Sac St and 6-5 UC Davis as their only other win over a team with a winning record. That is a shaky resume to say the least for a 7-4 team.
The only thing shakier may be Montana's record.


Yes, It's Cat/Griz week.

[PaladinFan]

One of the big question marks I had filling out my bracket was what to do with Samford. If they win, I think they're in, but if they lose, will they have enough? The fact that they would only have six D-I wins to me put them on the outside looking in.

Also interesting: if Samford wins, does Furman still get in automatically? I think yes, but I don't feel 100% certain about that.

So much appears to hinge on how many SoCon teams the Committee will take. Two are locks. Will they pick a third, or maybe a fourth as well? Every bracket hinges on this fact, IMO.

In the south, we hear a lot of talk about the college football committee and how the playoff rankings change week to week.

If the FCS selections are similar, and the committee looks at the entire resume and not just rote reliance on record, I think Furman’s got a pretty strong case.

[katss07]

I think NAU is in serious trouble if they lose to SUU. If ISUr beats NDSU that'll help them out but if not ISUr is 6-5 and out. Sacramento St and UC Davis play each other and they would be NAU's two best in conference wins so they'd either have a win over 7-4 Sac St or wins over 6-5 Sac St and 6-5 UC Davis as their only other win over a team with a winning record. That is a shaky resume to say the least for a 7-4 team.

I agree. NAU has been overrated all season long. A loss could keep them from the playoffs.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

FCS Playoffs ‘Til I Die: Projecting the 2017 #FCSPlayoff Field, 11/13/2017

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-projecting-the-2017-fcsplayoff-field-11132017/

I got a couple of complaints on this link, one from Rob obviously but we ain't having the spam type stuff here LFN so if you have some type of ad program that takes over a browser with a full page ad thing that you need to click around then that needs to be fixed before posting any more of them here please.

[Reign of Terrier]

I predict there will be 24 teams in the playoffs.

Some of them will be good

[grizband]

I predict there will be 24 teams in the playoffs.

Some of them will be good
One or two might also beat teams who are considered better...

- - - Updated - - -


I got a couple of complaints on this link, one from Rob obviously but we ain't having the spam type stuff here LFN so if you have some type of ad program that takes over a browser with a full page ad thing that you need to click around then that needs to be fixed before posting any more of them here please.
Ursus, it might be fixed; just opened the link, and didn't encounter any full page browser add.

[PantherRob82]

One or two might also beat teams who are considered better...

- - - Updated - - -


Ursus, it might be fixed; just opened the link, and didn't encounter any full page browser add.

i didn’t get a full page ad either, it popped up a notification and crashed my browser on my phone.

- - - Updated - - -

Update: Didn’t happen that time.

[grizband]

i didn’t get a full page ad either, it popped up a notification and crashed my browser on my phone.

- - - Updated - - -

Update: Didn’t happen that time.
Didn't happen on either my phone, or desktop browser; but I just opened for the first time. Hopefully it's been rectified, cuz those are the worst!

[ngineer]

Monmouth at Delaware vs 1 JMU
San Diego at Weber St vs 8 SUU
WIU at Elon vs 5 Wofford
Lehigh at USD vs 4 UCA

Nicholls at Samford vs 3 JSU
McNeese at UNI vs 6 SHSU
CCSU at UNH vs 7 Stony Brook
EWU at SDSU vs 2 NDSU

I have USD beating SDSU, which is why I don't have SDSU seeded.

I don't see them sending us out to South Dakota for a first round game. They are all regional. We'll be sent packing to either Delaware, Stony Brook, Monmouth or....please don't do it...UNH. What a horrendous bus ride.

[cx500d]

I got a couple of complaints on this link, one from Rob obviously but we ain't having the spam type stuff here LFN so if you have some type of ad program that takes over a browser with a full page ad thing that you need to click around then that needs to be fixed before posting any more of them here please.


The new Safari 11 browser ad stripping reader works great....You can read any webpage or new site with zero ads.

[kalm]

If outcomes go chalk this weekend (which they rarely do), I think Montana and USD are in. The last two remaining spots go to the loser of Furman-Samford, McNeese or NIchols, or EWU.


Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU @ SUU (8-2)
CAA: UD @ Nova (4-6), UNH @ Albany (3-7)
MVFC: UNI @ ISUb (0-10), WIU @ SIU (4-6)
SoCon: Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky: EWU (6-4) v. PSU (0-10), Montana (7-3) @ MSU (4-6), Sac State (6-4) v Davis (5-5)
MVFC: ISU (6-4)) v. NDSU (9-1), USD v. SDSU (8-2)
Socon: Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)
Big South: Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)
SLC: Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), McNeese (8-2)
OVC: Austin Peay (7-4) v. EIU (6-4). APSU is considered because they played 3 FBS, have a 12 game schedule and would finish 8-1 against FCS competition. Not likely, but the committee has been kind to the OVC #2 in the past.

The big question of course comes down to how the committee treats the two 9-2 SLC's and Big South compared to 7-4's from power conferences (like us). The SoS's for McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw, and Monmouth are not good, ranking from 73-83 in Massey. The best wins among all 4 are NSU beating McNeese, KSU beating Montana State, and KSU and MU beating Charleston Southern and Liberty. Still, multiple teams from these two conferences have won multiple games in the playoffs recently. Despite the weak schedules, they may not be regarded the same as 9-2 Patriot League runner ups that were left home in the past. These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

If NAU and Montana both lose it would be hard to imagine the committee not taking the BSC #3 (EWU). However if they take even 1 from the SLC/BS it narrows the bubble and if they take all 3, several 7-4's are in serious trouble.

If the favorites all win this week and the committee regards SoS and quality wins as equal to 9-2 records from weaker schedules, that leaves 4 spots to be divvied up between...

7-4 USD: best wins: 8-3 WIU, 6-5 YSU, 2-8 BGU (fbs) SoS: 6 * Would finish on a 3 game losing streak and losers of 4 out the last 5 which the committee may not like.
8-3 Montana best wins: 7-4 NAU SoS: 30
7-4 EWU best wins: 8-3 Montana, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 4
7-4 NAU best wins: 6-5 ISUr, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 13
7-4 Furman best wins: 7-5 WCU, 7-4 Colgate, 6-5 Mercer SoS: 36
or
7-4 Samford best wins: 9-2 Wofford, 10-1 Kennesaw. SoS: 38

If you throw the rest into the mix:

9-2 Nichols best wins: 9-2 McNeese. SoS: 73
9-2 McNeese best wins: 7-3 Alcorn State SoS: 77
9-2 Kennesaw best wins: 6-4 Libery, 5-5 CSU SoS: 83
or
9-2 Monmouth best wins: 6-4 Liberty, 5-5 CSU SoS: 88
8-4 Lets Go Peay best wins: 6-5 EIU, 6-5 UTM, 6-5 TNST SoS: 41

[Catbooster]

Good summary. I agree. Except I'm pretty sure the committee won't take McNeese if they're 2-8 (could that be a typo?) ;)

I think there will be some extra Bobcat fans from bubble teams this weekend.

[ST_Lawson]

...These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

For informational purposes...Garoppolo at EIU in the playoffs was only 1-2...so it's not like they were great either.
2012 - lost by 48 at South Dakota State in the first round
2013 - beat Tennessee State by 41 in the first round, lost to Towson by 10 in the second round

Also, 2015 EIU will be cemented in my memory as the year they played at UNI and got "helicoptered" out of the dome by 36 points.

So, I'm not sure I'd say that EIU has "not sucked" in the playoffs, with their only win being over a fellow OVC team (when did they put in the "no first round conference rematches" bit?...EIU played TSU in the regular season that year too).

JSU is good though, but outside of them, I wonder how many times the committee wants to get burned by letting in a second OVC team. It would be kinda neat seeing Austin Peay in the playoffs after so many years of just horrible football though...if they beat EIU.

[BEAR]

UCA having some fun with the selection show:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOxA8rFUIAA9BOH.jpg

[ST_Lawson]

WIU is doing something for that too:

https://twitter.com/WIUAthletics/status/931180551905693697

[PaladinFan]

Most FCS writers I've seen suggest that Furman has probably punched a ticket. They will firmly be on the bubble if they lose Saturday.

Furman's reeled off 7 straight wins, has a respectable strength of schedule, lost to two top 10 teams in the final seconds, and (I think importantly) does not have any "bad" losses on their resume.

[Reign of Terrier]

If outcomes go chalk this weekend (which they rarely do), I think Montana and USD are in. The last two remaining spots go to the loser of Furman-Samford, McNeese or NIchols, or EWU.


Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky: NAU @ SUU (8-2)
CAA: UD @ Nova (4-6), UNH @ Albany (3-7)
MVFC: UNI @ ISUb (0-10), WIU @ SIU (4-6)
SoCon: Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky: EWU (6-4) v. PSU (0-10), Montana (7-3) @ MSU (4-6), Sac State (6-4) v Davis (5-5)
MVFC: ISU (6-4)) v. NDSU (9-1), USD v. SDSU (8-2)
Socon: Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)
Big South: Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)
SLC: Nichols (8-2) @ SELA (5-5), McNeese (8-2)
OVC: Austin Peay (7-4) v. EIU (6-4). APSU is considered because they played 3 FBS, have a 12 game schedule and would finish 8-1 against FCS competition. Not likely, but the committee has been kind to the OVC #2 in the past.

The big question of course comes down to how the committee treats the two 9-2 SLC's and Big South compared to 7-4's from power conferences (like us). The SoS's for McNeese, Nicholls, Kennesaw, and Monmouth are not good, ranking from 73-83 in Massey. The best wins among all 4 are NSU beating McNeese, KSU beating Montana State, and KSU and MU beating Charleston Southern and Liberty. Still, multiple teams from these two conferences have won multiple games in the playoffs recently. Despite the weak schedules, they may not be regarded the same as 9-2 Patriot League runner ups that were left home in the past. These two conferences are more like the OVC (who has sucked in the playoffs other than JSU and a Jimmy Garoppolo led EIU). Hell, the committee gave a 7-4 EIU an at-large in 2015 not to mention many 9-win OVC runner-ups.

If NAU and Montana both lose it would be hard to imagine the committee not taking the BSC #3 (EWU). However if they take even 1 from the SLC/BS it narrows the bubble and if they take all 3, several 7-4's are in serious trouble.

If the favorites all win this week and the committee regards SoS and quality wins as equal to 9-2 records from weaker schedules, that leaves 4 spots to be divvied up between...

7-4 USD: best wins: 8-3 WIU, 6-5 YSU, 2-8 BGU (fbs) SoS: 6 * Would finish on a 3 game losing streak and losers of 4 out the last 5 which the committee may not like.
8-3 Montana best wins: 7-4 NAU SoS: 30
7-4 EWU best wins: 8-3 Montana, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 4
7-4 NAU best wins: 6-5 ISUr, 7-4 CSUS SoS: 13
7-4 Furman best wins: 7-5 WCU, 7-4 Colgate, 6-5 Mercer SoS: 36
or
7-4 Samford best wins: 9-2 Wofford, 10-1 Kennesaw. SoS: 38

If you throw the rest into the mix:

9-2 Nichols best wins: 9-2 McNeese. SoS: 73
9-2 McNeese best wins: 7-3 Alcorn State SoS: 77
9-2 Kennesaw best wins: 6-4 Libery, 5-5 CSU SoS: 83
or
9-2 Monmouth best wins: 6-4 Liberty, 5-5 CSU SoS: 88
8-4 Lets Go Peay best wins: 6-5 EIU, 6-5 UTM, 6-5 TNST SoS: 41

Remove Nichols from the bubble.

[youcanbankit]

Playoff Locks:

Big Sky: SUU, Weber
Big South: Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA: JMU, SBU, Elon
MVFC: NDSU, SDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA, SHSU

I think only 12 of these are locks. I think 3-4 teams get in from the SoCon depending on the outcome this weekend.

[BEAR]

With the Nicholls loss, UCA earns the SLC auto-bid.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26522&stc=1

[katss07]

Seeing Lehigh as a lock around here. The Patriot is their’s to lose, but I think Cgate still has a chance right?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Seeing Lehigh as a lock around here. The Patriot is their’s to lose, but I think Cgate still has a chance right?

Damn straight they're not a lock. They can lose to anybody.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Seeing Lehigh as a lock around here. The Patriot is their’s to lose, but I think Cgate still has a chance right?

Lehigh is nothing more than a marginal favorite against Lafayette. These are two sub .500 teams for a reason. Colgate still has a great shot to get in....

[CHIP72]

Seeing Lehigh as a lock around here. The Patriot is their’s to lose, but I think Cgate still has a chance right?

Colgate wins the Patriot League title outright or via tiebreaker if Lehigh loses. The Red Raiders' season finale against Georgetown actually has no bearing on the Patriot League auto bid; if Lehigh is upset by Lafayette, Colgate is in the playoffs, win or lose vs. the Hoyas.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Colgate wins the Patriot League title outright or via tiebreaker if Lehigh loses. The Red Raiders' season finale against Georgetown actually has no bearing on the Patriot League auto bid; if Lehigh is upset by Lafayette, Colgate is in the playoffs, win or lose vs. the Hoyas.

And just for those who were wondering, Georgetown hasn't won a PL game in over 2 years. That would be a horrific loss by Colgate. But in this year's PL it seems almost fitting. Just like a 5-6 auto-bid...lol

BTW, nice win for the Owls today against ODU! Auburn at 11 AM!