W/L vs SoS

[kalm]

Here's a scenario assuming each team wins out and things like crowd size and tradition are not metrics used by the committee. If an 8-3 Montana deserves to get in ahead of a 9-2 McNeese and 9-2 Monmouth, shouldn't the same argument be made for a 7-4 EWU getting in ahead of an 8-3 Montana.

(Homerism acknowledged :D.)


McNeese:
Record 8-2 Record against FCS 7-2
SoS 85, wins against 7-3 Alcorn and 5-5 SELA

Monmouth:
Record 9-1 Record against FCS 9-1
SoS 82, wins agaisnt 6-4 Liberty and 5-5 CSU

Montana:
Record 7-3 Record against FCS 7-2
SoS 27 wins against 7-3 NAU, 5-5 Valpo

EWU:
Record 6-4 Record against FCS 6-3
SoS 4 wins against 7-3 Montana, 6-4 Sac, 5-5 Davis

[WestCoastAggie]

Is Liberty considered FBS, yet?

[TheKingpin28]

Is Liberty considered FBS, yet?

No, but they are ineligible for the FCS Playoffs.

[WestCoastAggie]

Howard and Kennesaw State should be on this list.

[TheKingpin28]

Howard and Kennesaw State should be on this list.

Edit, they are only ineligible for Swimming and Diving.

[kalm]

Howard and Kennesaw State should be on this list.

Yep. There are several more teams you could include like Nichols and Furman.

[WestCoastAggie]

Edit, they are only ineligible for Swimming and Diving.

All jokes aside, Howard did what you all harp MVFC folks harp on constantly; schedule tough. They got one and had close loss, that many of you would be using as a feather in a cap if a team from the CAA or MVFC, or even OVC had. Their OOC SOS is very high. Yes their MEAC ooc was not the toughest but they'll likely have only one conference loss.

Not to mention, when they played Richmond, they were reeling with injuries from their two toughly contested FBS games. A healthy Howard team is a playoff team.

[Redbird 4th & short]

All jokes aside, Howard did what you all harp MVFC folks harp on constantly; schedule tough. They got one and had close loss, that many of you would be using as a feather in a cap if a team from the CAA or MVFC, or even OVC had. Their OOC SOS is very high. Yes their MEAC ooc was not the toughest but they'll likely have only one conference loss.

Not to mention, when they played Richmond, they were reeling with injuries from their two toughly contested FBS games. A healthy Howard team is a playoff team.

Now Howard ??? yeesh ,, they're 7-3 against the 82nd ranked SOS per Massey.

can't get format quite right .. green column is Massey rank across all colleges, sorted in ascending order of opponent rank. They have 1 quality win. they have 1 bad loss to offset the quality win. they have many weak wins against bad teams. Body of work is terrible, which is why Massey has them 57th .. they are 7-3 against a 82nd ranked SOS ... not even close to consideration. Massey Composite has them 51 st this moment. Sagarin hs them 74.

Their 2nd toughest opponent was 5-5 Richmond, who will not make playoffs .. lost to them by 47. Then have 4 weak wins against bad teams where they won by average of 6 points per game against teams in the bottom quartile of FCS. And lost to NC Central .. Massey #67.



Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat2017-09-02
at
UNLV (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5323&s=295489)
124(4-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452468)
43
40



Sat2017-09-16
at
Richmond (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=295489)
140(5-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452671)
21
68



Sat2017-09-09
at
Kent (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3771&s=295489)
185(2-8)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452591)
31
38



Sat2017-09-23

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=691&s=295489)
214(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452723)
26
24



Sat2017-10-07

NC Central (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=295489)
239(7-3)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452837)
7
13



Sat2017-11-18
at
Hampton (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3112&s=295489)
309(5-5)
72 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453206)
31
24



Sat2017-10-28
at
S Carolina St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=295489)
325(3-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453029)
28
20



Sat2017-11-11

Norfolk St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5475&s=295489)
346(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453121)
28
24



Sat2017-11-04
at
Florida A&M (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=295489)
356(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453060)
37
26



Sat2017-10-14
at
Delaware St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=295489)
410(2-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452918)
52
23



Sat2017-10-21

Morgan St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=295489)
428(1-9)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452954)
39
14

[WestCoastAggie]

Now Howard ??? yeesh ,, they're 7-3 against the 82nd ranked SOS per Massey.

can't get format quite right .. green column is Massey rank across all colleges, sorted in ascending order of opponent rank. They have 1 quality win. they have 1 bad loss to offset the quality win. they have many weak wins against bad teams. Body of work is terrible, which is why Massey has them 57th .. they are 7-3 against a 82nd ranked SOS ... not even close to consideration. Massey Composite has them 51 st this moment. Sagarin hs them 74.

Their 2nd toughest opponent was 5-5 Richmond, who will not make playoffs .. lost to them by 47. Then have 4 weak wins against bad teams where they won by average of 6 points per game against teams in the bottom quartile of FCS. And lost to NC Central .. Massey #67.



Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat2017-09-02
at
UNLV (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5323&s=295489)
124(4-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452468)
43
40



Sat2017-09-16
at
Richmond (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=295489)
140(5-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452671)
21
68



Sat2017-09-09
at
Kent (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3771&s=295489)
185(2-8)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452591)
31
38



Sat2017-09-23

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=691&s=295489)
214(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452723)
26
24



Sat2017-10-07

NC Central (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=295489)
239(7-3)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452837)
7
13



Sat2017-11-18
at
Hampton (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3112&s=295489)
309(5-5)
72 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453206)
31
24



Sat2017-10-28
at
S Carolina St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=295489)
325(3-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453029)
28
20



Sat2017-11-11

Norfolk St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5475&s=295489)
346(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453121)
28
24



Sat2017-11-04
at
Florida A&M (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=295489)
356(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453060)
37
26



Sat2017-10-14
at
Delaware St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=295489)
410(2-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452918)
52
23



Sat2017-10-21

Morgan St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=295489)
428(1-9)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452954)
39
14





The selection committee isn't using the computer rankings you love bringing up. If anything, they will use the Simple Ranking System that will have Howard ranked higher.

[TheKingpin28]

All jokes aside, Howard did what you all harp MVFC folks harp on constantly; schedule tough. They got one and had close loss, that many of you would be using as a feather in a cap if a team from the CAA or MVFC, or even OVC had. Their OOC SOS is very high. Yes their MEAC ooc was not the toughest but they'll likely have only one conference loss.

Not to mention, when they played Richmond, they were reeling with injuries from their two toughly contested FBS games. A healthy Howard team is a playoff team.


Now Howard ??? yeesh ,, they're 7-3 against the 82nd ranked SOS per Massey.

can't get format quite right .. green column is Massey rank across all colleges, sorted in ascending order of opponent rank. They have 1 quality win. they have 1 bad loss to offset the quality win. they have many weak wins against bad teams. Body of work is terrible, which is why Massey has them 57th .. they are 7-3 against a 82nd ranked SOS ... not even close to consideration. Massey Composite has them 51 st this moment. Sagarin hs them 74.

Their 2nd toughest opponent was 5-5 Richmond, who will not make playoffs .. lost to them by 47. Then have 4 weak wins against bad teams where they won by average of 6 points per game against teams in the bottom quartile of FCS. And lost to NC Central .. Massey #67.



Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat2017-09-02
at
UNLV (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5323&s=295489)
124(4-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452468)
43
40



Sat2017-09-16
at
Richmond (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=295489)
140(5-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452671)
21
68



Sat2017-09-09
at
Kent (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3771&s=295489)
185(2-8)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452591)
31
38



Sat2017-09-23

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=691&s=295489)
214(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452723)
26
24



Sat2017-10-07

NC Central (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5505&s=295489)
239(7-3)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452837)
7
13



Sat2017-11-18
at
Hampton (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3112&s=295489)
309(5-5)
72 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453206)
31
24



Sat2017-10-28
at
S Carolina St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7250&s=295489)
325(3-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453029)
28
20



Sat2017-11-11

Norfolk St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5475&s=295489)
346(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453121)
28
24



Sat2017-11-04
at
Florida A&M (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2633&s=295489)
356(3-7)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804453060)
37
26



Sat2017-10-14
at
Delaware St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2118&s=295489)
410(2-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452918)
52
23



Sat2017-10-21

Morgan St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5114&s=295489)
428(1-9)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=804452954)
39
14





beat me to it.

[TheKingpin28]

The selection committee isn't using the computer rankings you love bringing up. If anything, they will use the Simple Ranking System that will have Howard ranked higher.

Even if they do not acknowledge that they use it, kind of like UNH and Montana being locks with 7 wins in this current playoff format, the truth of the matter is that Sagarin and Massey do an excellent job and their ratings are nationally used to produce rankings for teams.

[WestCoastAggie]

Even if they do not acknowledge that they use it, kind of like UNH and Montana being locks with 7 wins in this current playoff format, the truth of the matter is that Sagarin and Massey do an excellent job and their ratings are nationally used to produce rankings for teams.

I'm not saying that they aren't bad rankings at all, besides the random biases towards the middle tier MVFC teams and their SOS, while ignoring the BSC, SoCon and even CAA.

I am also not saying Howard is a lock. In fact, they're far from locks but past MEAC playoff At-Large surprises show they aren't easily able to be thrown away, especially with a FBS win.

[TheKingpin28]

I'm not saying that they aren't bad rankings at all, besides the random biases towards the middle tier MVFC teams and their SOS, while ignoring the BSC, SoCon and even CAA.

I am also not saying Howard is a lock. In fact, they're far from locks but past MEAC playoff At-Large surprises show they aren't easily able to be thrown away, especially with a FBS win.

That is an argument that is a joke. Ooooh and FBS win. So if NDSU beats Kansas then it is a good FBS win?



Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Pwr
Off
Def
HFA
SoS
SSF



N Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

9-10.900

+1
11.81

161.39

554.99

133.62

2.30
1139.86

1240.58




James Madison (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3611&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

10-01.000

-1
21.79

259.45

455.11

231.59

2.08
3234.23

3234.37




S Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7268&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

8-20.800


31.64

354.49

158.24

1123.49

1.63
543.19

243.91




Northern Iowa (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5641&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

6-40.600

+1
41.54

551.12

1051.05

427.29

1.30
149.33

147.27




W Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

7-30.700

-1
51.53

452.31

654.78

1024.73

0.66
243.67

443.23




Southern Utah (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7399&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

8-20.800

+1
61.49

848.39

754.27

2021.35

3.21
840.77

941.09




Weber St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8636&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

8-20.800

+1
71.47

948.07

2048.58

726.74

3.10
1538.52

1837.63




South Dakota (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7262&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

7-30.700

-2
81.44

748.40

255.14

2320.49

2.32
642.23

343.25




Cent Arkansas (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1351&s=295489)Southland (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14112&s=295489)

9-10.900

+1
91.37

1244.93

1550.29

1721.86

0.41
4628.31

5027.67




Jacksonville St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3606&s=295489)OH Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=13193&s=295489)

9-10.900

-1
101.37

1344.88

2247.21

924.91

1.80
4030.07

4029.44




Northern Arizona (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5620&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

7-30.700


111.36

1145.87

1150.97

1422.12

3.34
1339.72

1040.83




Youngstown St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9217&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

5-50.500

+1
121.36

648.93

1949.23

626.91

1.95
343.64

542.61




E Washington (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2383&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

6-40.600

+1
131.33

1444.42

853.21

3218.46

3.13
443.41

841.64




Illinois St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3449&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

6-40.600

-2
141.33

1046.12

2945.63

327.72

1.50
1239.84

741.67




Delaware (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2108&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

7-30.700

+2
151.29

1643.55

3443.67

527.12

2.38
2137.29

2037.11




Stony Brook (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7642&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

8-20.800

-1
161.29

1841.27

2346.66

1621.89

2.44
3134.25

3134.51




Furman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)

7-30.700

+1
171.26

1543.86

952.92

3318.19

0.45
3632.58

3633.25




Montana (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5035&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

7-30.700

+2
181.22

1940.50

1350.71

4117.04

3.96
3034.39

2735.03




Sam Houston St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6981&s=295489)Southland (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14112&s=295489)

9-10.900


191.21

2438.56

355.11

7610.74

0.28
6125.66

6824.47




Yale (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9177&s=295489)Ivy League (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12206&s=295489)

8-10.889

+5
201.20

2039.62

3045.45

1921.40

1.25
6924.90

66




Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Pwr
Off
Def
HFA
SoS
SSF



Elon (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2447&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

8-20.800

-5
211.18

3334.00

4842.28

2918.97

1.79
2435.68

1937.41




CS Sacramento (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1067&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

6-40.600

+6
221.17

2139.38

1450.47

4416.15

3.58
2236.34

2336.31




Richmond (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

5-50.500

-1
231.16

1742.14

1650.21

2719.19

1.35
1937.57

2236.51




Wofford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9126&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)

9-10.900

-3
241.12

3433.80

3943.01

3418.02

0.62
5826.15

4428.94




Samford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6987&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)

7-30.700

-1
251.12

2238.66

2746.07

2419.83

0.90
3831.45

3732.58




Kennesaw (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3766&s=295489)Big South (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10672&s=295489)

9-10.900

+4
261.11

2934.78

5141.45

2220.54

1.54
8321.28

8022.20




New Hampshire (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5342&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)

7-30.700

+2
271.11

2737.16

3643.35

2121.12

2.91
3732.13

3932.27




UC Davis (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8200&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)

5-50.500

-5
281.10

2637.88

1849.70

4915.40

2.60
1738.36

1638.77




NC A&T (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5500&s=295489)Mid-Eastern AC (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12545&s=295489)

10-01.000

-3
291.09

3034.43

3344.12

3817.56

0.97
10215.03

10215.70




S Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7339&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)

4-60.400

-3
301.06

2338.57

2446.26

2619.50

1.90
1638.51

1439.73




Argue the "random biases towards the middle tier MVFC teams" here in this post.

[Schism55]

Monmouth v Kennesaw St is a loser leaves town game.
Howard is not getting in nor do they deserve to.

[aceinthehole]

The following 5 conferences will only send their automatic qualifier:

1. Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
2. Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
3. Pioneer: San Diego
4. NEC: Central Connecticut State
5. OVC: Jacksonville State

The following 14 teams (from 5 conferences) are now “locks” for the playoffs:

6. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
7. Weber State (Big Sky)
8. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
9. James Madison (CAA)
10. Elon (CAA)
11. Stony Brook (CAA)
12. North Dakota State (MVFC)
13. South Dakota State (MVFC)
14. South Dakota (MVFC)
15. Western Illinois (MVFC)
16. Wofford (SoCon)
17. Furman (SoCon)
18. Central Arkansas (Southland)
19. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of the teams above will earn their respective conference AQ, only 5 at-large spots are available for the following 9 teams (listed alphabetically):

1. Delaware (CAA)
2. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
3. McNeese (Southland)
4. Montana (Big Sky)
5. New Hampshire (CAA)
6. Nichols (Southland)
7. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
8. Samford (SoCon)
9. Western Carolina (SoCon)

[WestCoastAggie]

That is an argument that is a joke. Ooooh and FBS win. So if NDSU beats Kansas then it is a good FBS win?



Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Pwr
Off
Def
HFA
SoS
SSF



N Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
9-10.900
+1
11.81
161.39
554.99
133.62
2.30
1139.86
1240.58



James Madison (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3611&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
10-01.000
-1
21.79
259.45
455.11
231.59
2.08
3234.23
3234.37



S Dakota St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7268&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
8-20.800

31.64
354.49
158.24
1123.49
1.63
543.19
243.91



Northern Iowa (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5641&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
6-40.600
+1
41.54
551.12
1051.05
427.29
1.30
149.33
147.27



W Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8754&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
7-30.700
-1
51.53
452.31
654.78
1024.73
0.66
243.67
443.23



Southern Utah (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7399&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
8-20.800
+1
61.49
848.39
754.27
2021.35
3.21
840.77
941.09



Weber St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8636&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
8-20.800
+1
71.47
948.07
2048.58
726.74
3.10
1538.52
1837.63



South Dakota (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7262&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
7-30.700
-2
81.44
748.40
255.14
2320.49
2.32
642.23
343.25



Cent Arkansas (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1351&s=295489)Southland (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14112&s=295489)
9-10.900
+1
91.37
1244.93
1550.29
1721.86
0.41
4628.31
5027.67



Jacksonville St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3606&s=295489)OH Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=13193&s=295489)
9-10.900
-1
101.37
1344.88
2247.21
924.91
1.80
4030.07
4029.44



Northern Arizona (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5620&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
7-30.700

111.36
1145.87
1150.97
1422.12
3.34
1339.72
1040.83



Youngstown St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9217&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
5-50.500
+1
121.36
648.93
1949.23
626.91
1.95
343.64
542.61



E Washington (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2383&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
6-40.600
+1
131.33
1444.42
853.21
3218.46
3.13
443.41
841.64



Illinois St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3449&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
6-40.600
-2
141.33
1046.12
2945.63
327.72
1.50
1239.84
741.67



Delaware (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2108&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
7-30.700
+2
151.29
1643.55
3443.67
527.12
2.38
2137.29
2037.11



Stony Brook (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7642&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
8-20.800
-1
161.29
1841.27
2346.66
1621.89
2.44
3134.25
3134.51



Furman (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)
7-30.700
+1
171.26
1543.86
952.92
3318.19
0.45
3632.58
3633.25



Montana (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5035&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
7-30.700
+2
181.22
1940.50
1350.71
4117.04
3.96
3034.39
2735.03



Sam Houston St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6981&s=295489)Southland (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14112&s=295489)
9-10.900

191.21
2438.56
355.11
7610.74
0.28
6125.66
6824.47



Yale (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9177&s=295489)Ivy League (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12206&s=295489)
8-10.889
+5
201.20
2039.62
3045.45
1921.40
1.25
6924.90
66




Team
Record
Δ
Rat
Pwr
Off
Def
HFA
SoS
SSF



Elon (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2447&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
8-20.800
-5
211.18
3334.00
4842.28
2918.97
1.79
2435.68
1937.41



CS Sacramento (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1067&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
6-40.600
+6
221.17
2139.38
1450.47
4416.15
3.58
2236.34
2336.31



Richmond (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6547&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
5-50.500
-1
231.16
1742.14
1650.21
2719.19
1.35
1937.57
2236.51



Wofford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=9126&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)
9-10.900
-3
241.12
3433.80
3943.01
3418.02
0.62
5826.15
4428.94



Samford (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6987&s=295489)Southern (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=14064&s=295489)
7-30.700
-1
251.12
2238.66
2746.07
2419.83
0.90
3831.45
3732.58



Kennesaw (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3766&s=295489)Big South (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10672&s=295489)
9-10.900
+4
261.11
2934.78
5141.45
2220.54
1.54
8321.28
8022.20



New Hampshire (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5342&s=295489)Colonial (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11246&s=295489)
7-30.700
+2
271.11
2737.16
3643.35
2121.12
2.91
3732.13
3932.27



UC Davis (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8200&s=295489)Big Sky (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=10668&s=295489)
5-50.500
-5
281.10
2637.88
1849.70
4915.40
2.60
1738.36
1638.77



NC A&T (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5500&s=295489)Mid-Eastern AC (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12545&s=295489)
10-01.000
-3
291.09
3034.43
3344.12
3817.56
0.97
10215.03
10215.70



S Illinois (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7339&s=295489)Missouri Valley (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=85697&s=295489)
4-60.400
-3
301.06
2338.57
2446.26
2619.50
1.90
1638.51
1439.73



Argue the "random biases towards the middle tier MVFC teams" here in this post.

I am just letting you know what the committee is thinking. Bethune-Cookman had the same benefit of the doubt beating FIU in back to back seasons. FIU wasn't considered a "good FBS" win, but it helped their resume.

There were quite a few on this board pissed off they got in over a 7-4 MVFC squad that year, if I recall correctly.

[WestCoastAggie]

Since 5 of the teams above will earn their respective conference AQ, only 5 at-large spots are available for the following 9 teams (listed alphabetically):

1. Delaware (CAA)
2. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
3. McNeese (Southland)
4. Montana (Big Sky)
5. New Hampshire (CAA)
6. Nichols (Southland)
7. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
8. Samford (SoCon)
9. Western Carolina (SoCon)

You got to add the Kennesaw State/Monmouth loser and Howard to this list.

[aceinthehole]

You got to add the Kennesaw State/Monmouth loser and Howard to this list.

No way. That's the point, you have 9 teams with a much stronger SOS fighting for just 5 available spots. Four of those teams listed will be staying home.

I assure you the loser of the MU/KSU game is also staying home, as is Howard.

[kalm]

The following 5 conferences will only send their automatic qualifier:

1. Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
2. Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
3. Pioneer: San Diego
4. NEC: Central Connecticut State
5. OVC: Jacksonville State

The following 14 teams (from 5 conferences) are now “locks” for the playoffs:

6. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
7. Weber State (Big Sky)
8. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
9. James Madison (CAA)
10. Elon (CAA)
11. Stony Brook (CAA)
12. North Dakota State (MVFC)
13. South Dakota State (MVFC)
14. South Dakota (MVFC)
15. Western Illinois (MVFC)
16. Wofford (SoCon)
17. Furman (SoCon)
18. Central Arkansas (Southland)
19. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of the teams above will earn their respective conference AQ, only 5 at-large spots are available for the following 9 teams (listed alphabetically):

1. Delaware (CAA)
2. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
3. McNeese (Southland)
4. Montana (Big Sky)
5. New Hampshire (CAA)
6. Nichols (Southland)
7. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
8. Samford (SoCon)
9. Western Carolina (SoCon)

NAU, USD, and Furman are not locks if they lose one more.

[WestCoastAggie]

No way. That's the point, you have 9 teams with a much stronger SOS fighting for just 5 available spots. Four of those teams listed will be staying home.

I assure you the loser of the MU/KSU game is also staying home, as is Howard.

Don't be surprised if either one or both make it in. The committee isn't looking at this as you and I are. SOS isn't going to be the determining factor.

[aceinthehole]

NAU, USD, and Furman are not locks if they lose one more.

Maybe not, but they would move to the at-large pool ahead of MU/KSU/Howard, etc.

[PaladinFan]

Maybe not, but they would move to the at-large pool ahead of MU/KSU/Howard, etc.

Homerism aside, but if you want the 24 best teams, Furman is in the field.

[aceinthehole]

Don't be surprised if either one or both make it in. The committee isn't looking at this as you and I are. SOS isn't going to be the determining factor.

As someone already posted, there is enough evidence that the committee will not reward gaudy records from poor conference/SOS.


Not really. There is a reason why SOS and quality wins exist for a reason. Ask the following:

-2016: Dayton (9-2)
-2015: BCU (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Jacksonville (9-2) [Ineligible though]
-2014: NCAT (9-3) BCU (9-3) Jacksonville (9-2)
-2013: Charleston Southern (10-3) Mercer (10-2)
-2012: Albany (9-2) EKU (8-3) UTM (8-3) Lehigh (10-1) Butler (8-3) Drake (8-3) San Diego (8-3)
-2011: UND (8-3) BCU (8-3) Duquesne (9-2) San Diego (9-2) Drake (9-2) Georgetown (8-3)

Should I keep going?

[WestCoastAggie]

As someone already posted, there is enough evidence that the committee will not reward gaudy records from poor conference/SOS.

Bethune-Cookman 2013, A&T 2016

EIU 2015

These teams have gotten in with "questionable" resumes. I'm not saying it will happen this year, but Howard and KSU/Monmouth are in the conversation. Howard is in the convo especially with Caylin Newton, the likely Jerry Rice Award winner.

[TheKingpin28]

As someone already posted, there is enough evidence that the committee will not reward gaudy records from poor conference/SOS.

I try, but to no avail. :(

I am excited to see CCSU in the playoffs for the first time in their history IIRC. Congrats again.

[Reign of Terrier]

The MEAC and the Pioneer are not rewarded with at-large bids because of how poor they play in the playoffs. I don't think it's a fair comparison to say because the majority of quality wins in those conferences don't get in anyway.

The Big South with Kennesaw and Monmouth is an excellent question. It's true that 10-3 Charleston Southern got left out in 2013, but they also were the 3rd place team in the Big South, had 8 D1 wins (note: 2013 and 2014 were years where many teams had inflated numbers because many scheduled 12 games) and lost their last two games of the season. Liberty was 8-4 that year with 2 wins against sub-FCS teams and they weren't going in either. I could understand why that's a bridge too far with the Big South.

In 2014 and 2015, the Big South got two in. I'd say it's very possible they get two in again.

Further, the Southland conference has never had a team win 9 games and get left out.

So, in short, I don't think it's as much of a given that these teams get left out.

[BisonTru]

Here's a scenario assuming each team wins out and things like crowd size and tradition are not metrics used by the committee. If an 8-3 Montana deserves to get in ahead of a 9-2 McNeese and 9-2 Monmouth, shouldn't the same argument be made for a 7-4 EWU getting in ahead of an 8-3 Montana.

(Homerism acknowledged :D.)


McNeese:
Record 8-2 Record against FCS 7-2
SoS 85, wins against 7-3 Alcorn and 5-5 SELA

Monmouth:
Record 9-1 Record against FCS 9-1
SoS 82, wins agaisnt 6-4 Liberty and 5-5 CSU

Montana:
Record 7-3 Record against FCS 7-2
SoS 27 wins against 7-3 NAU, 5-5 Valpo

EWU:
Record 6-4 Record against FCS 6-3
SoS 4 wins against 7-3 Montana, 6-4 Sac, 5-5 Davis

Yes, IMO, Eastern Washington deserves a spot more than Montana. They have the head to head and a tougher schedule. One more win when Montana played a much weaker schedule doesn't do it for me.

[WestCoastAggie]

So I gathered the comparable stats between the likely bubble teams, including point differential and opponent record. I also selected their best win and worst loss.

Have at it guys.

Howard

Record: 7-3
Point Dfff: 2.2
Opponent Record: 41-68

Best win: UNLV (FBS 4-6; 3 pt win)
Worst loss: Richmond (5-5; 47 pt loss)


Monmouth

Record: 9-1
Point Diff: 13.3
Opponent Record: 48-63

Best win: Liberty (6-4; 17 pt win)
Worst loss: Albany (3-7; 14 pt loss)


Kennesaw State

Record: 9-1 (1 sub d1 win; North Greenville win)
Point Diff: 15.9
Opponent Record: 44-64

Best win: Liberty (6-4; 14 pt loss)
Worst loss: Samford (7-3; 5 pt loss)


New Hampshire

Record: 7-3
Point diff: 4.5
Opponent Record: 51-58

Best Win: Elon (8-2; 10 pt win)
Worst Loss: Holy Cross (4-7; 25 pt loss)


McNeese State

Record: 8-2 (1 sub-d1 game; Fla Tech win)
Point Diff: 13
Opponent Record: 47-64

Best win: Alcorn State (7-3; 7 pt win)
Worst Loss: Central Ark (9-1; 30 pt loss)


Nicholls State

Record: 8-2
Point diff: 4.8
Opponent Record: 45-64

Best win: McNeese St (8-2; 2 pt win)
Worst loss: SHSU (9-1; 49 pt loss)


Montana

Record: 7-3
Point Diff: 7.4
Opponent Record: 49-61

Best win: Northern Arizona (7-3; 2 pt win)
Worst loss: Washington (FBS 8-2; 56 pt loss)


Samford

Record: 7-3 (1 sub d1 win; 9-1 West Georgia)
Point Diff: 7.4
Opponent Record: 66-47

Best win: Wofford (9-1; 3 pt win)
Worst Loss: Chatty (2-8; 2 pt loss)


Illinois St

Record: 6-4
Point Diff: 8.7
Opponent Record: 62-49

Best win: South Dakota (7-3; 16 pt win)
Worst loss: S. Illinois (4-6; 35 pt loss)


Western Carolina

Record: 7-4
Point Diff: 10.9
Opponent Record: 47-74 (12 Games)


Best win: Furman (7-3; 22 pt win)
Worst loss: Mercer (5-5; 2 pt loss)


Furman

Record: 7-3
Point Diff: 12.6
Opponent Record: 60-52

Best win: W. Carolina (7-4; 22 pt win)
Worst loss: Elon (8-2; 3 pt loss)


E. Washington

Record: 6-4
Point Diff: -1.4
Opponent Record: 58-53

Best win: Montana (7-3; 7 pt win)
Worst loss: NDSU (9-1; 27 pt loss)


Sacramento State

Record: 6-4
Point Diff: 8.2
Opponent Record: 61- 61

Best win: Southern Utah (8-2; 27 pt win)
Worst loss: Idaho (3-6; 22 pt loss)


Youngstown State

Record: 5-5
Point Diff: 8.9
Opponent Record: 56-54

Best win: SDSU (8-2; 12 pt win)
Worst loss: Illinois st (6-4; 35 pt loss)


Delaware

Record: 7-3
Point diff: 6.9
Opponent Record: 52-56

Best win: Stony Brook (8-2; 4 pt win)
Worst loss: Va Tech (FBS 7-3; 27 pt loss)


Austin Peay

Record: 7-4
Point diff: 1.4
Opponent Record: 54-65 (12 games)

Best win: Tennessee St (6-4; 4 pt win)
Worst loss: UCF (FBS 9-0; 40 pt loss)

[Reign of Terrier]

Did you take out sub-D1 games for the above?

I'm just glad Wofford has an autobid at the moment

[WestCoastAggie]

Did you take out sub-D1 games for the above?

I'm just glad Wofford has an autobid at the moment

To the best of my ability.

[Reign of Terrier]

The funny thing about Samford is that if you take out their OOC they look a lot better

[uofmman1122]

Montana

Worst loss: Washington (FBS 8-2; 56 pt loss)


Damn, I'll take that. lol

[WestCoastAggie]

Immediate thoughts:

Samford actually has the toughest schedule on the surface; best opponent record.

Kennesaw, while playing a weaker schedule, has the biggest point differential of these bubble teams.

While Montana had the worst loss overall, Illinois State has the worst FCS loss by record and Nicholls State has the worst FCS loss by point differential.

Sacramento State's Southern Utah victory is offset by their Idaho loss.

[aceinthehole]

The MEAC and the Pioneer are not rewarded with at-large bids because of how poor they play in the playoffs. I don't think it's a fair comparison to say because the majority of quality wins in those conferences don't get in anyway.

The Big South with Kennesaw and Monmouth is an excellent question. It's true that 10-3 Charleston Southern got left out in 2013, but they also were the 3rd place team in the Big South, had 8 D1 wins (note: 2013 and 2014 were years where many teams had inflated numbers because many scheduled 12 games) and lost their last two games of the season. Liberty was 8-4 that year with 2 wins against sub-FCS teams and they weren't going in either. I could understand why that's a bridge too far with the Big South.

In 2014 and 2015, the Big South got two in. I'd say it's very possible they get two in again.

Further, the Southland conference has never had a team win 9 games and get left out.

So, in short, I don't think it's as much of a given that these teams get left out.


As WestCoastAggie just posted, the best win for both Monmouth/Kennesaw State is a 6-4 Liberty team. Neither team has a win vs. a playoff team, as all other bubble teams do.

The Big South is nowhere near as strong (specifically this year) as you are suggesting. It has had some quality teams over the years (Coastal, Liberty, and Charleston Southern), but it is not at the level of these perennial at-large playoff conferences.

There is no way either one of these teams will be selected as an at-large this season. Too many bubble teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, SoCon and Southland that actually have at least 1 playoff-caliber win.

[Reign of Terrier]

As WestCoastAggie just posted, the best win for both Monmouth/Kennesaw State is a 6-4 Liberty team. Neither team has a win vs. a playoff team, as all other bubble teams do.

The Big South is nowhere near as strong (specifically this year) as you are suggesting. It has had some quality teams over the years (Coastal, Liberty, and Charleston Southern), but it is not at the level of these perennial at-large playoff conferences.

There is no way either one of these teams will be selected as an at-large this season. Too many bubble teams from the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, SoCon and Southland that actually have at least 1 playoff-caliber win.

I don't think they'll get in either, I just won't say so for certain until they're not.

[WestCoastAggie]

Sacramento State has one of the better resumes on the list. However, that Idaho loss hurts them, since they're technically FCS now.

[kalm]

Immediate thoughts:

Samford actually has the toughest schedule on the surface; best opponent record.

Kennesaw, while playing a weaker schedule, has the biggest point differential of these bubble teams.

While Montana had the worst loss overall, Illinois State has the worst FCS loss by record and Nicholls State has the worst FCS loss by point differential.

Sacramento State's Southern Utah victory is offset by their Idaho loss.

Point differential is too closely tied to SoS to make significant comparisons between disparate schedules and conferences. EG: Wofford's style dictates a greater number of low scoring games with lower point differentials. In EWU's championship year they came from behind 7 times and had 6 one score games in the regular season.

Samford's "toughest schedule" is another example from this in that they benefit from a 9-1 Georgia and a 9-1 West Alabama. Their Massey SoS is only 38. But Samford's resume is still pretty damn solid and they might still get in even with a loss this weekend.

If Idaho was FCS this season they'd probably be a middle of the pack .500 ish Big Sky team. That loss would not hurt as much as the SUU win helps. Samford's loss to Chatty would offset their win over Wofford at least as much if not more.