SoCon / Furman playoff chances

[gofurman]

I am still confused as to why Furman fans wanted Western and Samford to win. Western maybe. It keeps Furman with another playoff team we beat (Western and Colgate, maybe Samford IF we win).

But it seems to me none of that is relevant (as FU fan) .. if Western would have lost (or loses this week) and Samford loses. I feel the SoCon WILL get 2 or 3 teams in at minimum. Two is an absolute lock. Socon is always a two to four bid league. So if Wofford beats VMI they are champs. But if Western had lost or loses this week v Mercer and if Sammy gets a loss that's 5-3 SoCon for both. Furman has one conference loss so far 5-1. If those other teams hit three conference losses I think all FU has to so,is win one and they are in as they finish 2nd in SoCon. At 6-2. The second best socon team always goes to playoffs.

Curious us of other FU or SoCon fan opinions on this.

I I have heard that some FU fans want Samford to win so when FU plays Samford that... IF FU wins it's a better win... But that's playing hypotheticals. I say FU is. a lock for playoffs if Western and Sammy lose. So that's what I want.

Agree. Disagree. Why?

[grizband]

If Samford loses, they can't reach 7 D1 wins this year. They currently stand at 6-3, but one of their victories came against a lower division team (West Alabama); therefore, they cannot afford another loss.

At 6-3, Furman is probably a lock by winning their final two games. 7-4 would put their squarely on the bubble, gaining an at large bid would depend on the results for other teams around FCS.

I agree that Wofford and Western Carolina are probably in at this point, although WCU has less room for error.

[gofurman]

If Samford loses, they can't reach 7 D1 wins this year. They currently stand at 6-3, but one of their victories came against a lower division team (West Alabama); therefore, they cannot afford another loss.

At 6-3, Furman is probably a lock by winning their final two games. 7-4 would put their squarely on the bubble, gaining an at large bid would depend on the results for other teams around FCS.

I agree that Wofford and Western Carolina are probably in at this point, although WCU has less room for error.

The funny thing about that is Western is not only below Furman in overall SoCon standings.. Furman also beat Western 28-6 at Western. That's a whooping

SoCon standings as :
Wofford 6-1. .......Overall (no FBS yet) 8-1
Furman 5-1. ........6-3 lost to NC State and by 3 to Elon. Beat Colgate 45-14
Western 5-2. .......7-3. Beat Davidson and Gardner Webb. Lost to Hawaii
Samford 4-2. .........6-3


are we saying we reward teams for scheduling Davidson? The last team in all of FCS? And Gardner Webb. While Furman lost Elon on a last second FG and crushed playoff bound Colgate

[gofurman]

If Samford loses, they can't reach 7 D1 wins this year. They currently stand at 6-3, but one of their victories came against a lower division team (West Alabama); therefore, they cannot afford another loss.

At 6-3, Furman is probably a lock by winning their final two games. 7-4 would put their squarely on the bubble, gaining an at large bid would depend on the results for other teams around FCS.

I agree that Wofford and Western Carolina are probably in at this point, although WCU has less room for error.

Yes, no doubt. No probably ' about that one. 8-3 we would be SoCon champs. Though Wofford would have the autobid.. if they would never deny an 8-3 SoCon champ. That would mean beating Western, Colgate, Samford, Mercer etc and losing only to Wofford by one point, Elon by a FG ..... and FBS top 20 NC State which basically as FBS doesn't count in my eyes

[grizband]

Yes, no doubt. No probably ' about that one. 8-3 we would be SoCon champs. Though Wofford would have the autobid.. if they would never deny an 8-3 SoCon champ. That would mean beating Western, Colgate, Samford, Mercer etc and losing only to Wofford by one point, Elon by a FG ..... and FBS top 20 NC State which basically as FBS doesn't count in my eyes
Thanks for the research; I'll amend my earlier statement. If Furman wins out, at 8-3 they are a lock for the playoffs.

[Smitty]

The funny thing about that is Western is not only below Furman in overall SoCon standings.. Furman also beat Western 28-6 at Western. That's a whooping

SoCon standings as :
Wofford 6-1. .......Overall (no FBS yet) 8-1
Furman 5-1. ........6-3 lost to NC State and by 3 to Elon. Beat Colgate 45-14
Western 5-2. .......7-3. Beat Davidson and Gardner Webb. Lost to Hawaii
Samford 4-2. .........6-3


are we saying we reward teams for scheduling Davidson? The last team in all of FCS? And Gardner Webb. While Furman lost Elon on a last second FG and crushed playoff bound Colgate

I'm not sure what the hate is for exactly as schedules are planned out in advance and do not account for how they will perform. For instance, Elon has (for the most part) always been terrible and they have surprised everybody this year.

As for Westerns schedule, while it is true that we scheduled Davidson, we will have played 2 FBS teams and have no scheduled bye during the year. So if we beat Mercer and lose to UNC to finish 8-4 it will hopefully be enough to get us in as the 3rd team.

[wcugrad95]

Socon is always a two to four bid league.... At 6-2. The second best socon team always goes to playoffs.


As for always getting 2 in (I'll keep this to after the field expanded to 24), in 2014 we only had UTC go. Samford and WCU tied for 2nd with 5-2 records and neither got in.

That being said, I totally agree with the part about 6-2 teams getting in. The interesting thing would be if we had Wofford at 7-1 and then three teams at 6-2. Would all 4 get invited? Given 10 AQs, and if MFVC gets at least 5 in, and CAA gets at 4, that means only 7 bids left and for all the SoCon teams to get in that means nearly half of those goes to our conference. I am not saying that wouldn't be possible or that any of the three teams at 6-2 shouldn't go, but 2013 had 3 teams tied for the conference championship with 6-2 records and one of them did NOT go (an 8-4 UTC team). But then they flipped it around last season and 4 got in (Samford with 3 conference losses). Hard to figure out until we have the entire picture and everyone's "body of work" is complete.

As for guessing right now, based on the majority of recent past seasons, I am betting 3 will be the most. I am saying anybody in the SoCon who has 3 conference losses is probably not going without a major OOC/FBS win. Samford has the best OOC win against Kennesaw (unless Western beats UNC!), Furman has the strongest FCS schedule, Western has the 2 FBS games. If Western gets to 8-4 we would be 8-2 against FCS teams with our only losses in OT to a top-10 (#5 at the time) Wofford and a loss without arguably our best player (no argument our most important player) for 1/2 the game to what could be a top-15 team in Furman. So that should be a playoff-worthy resume IF we have 8 wins and a 6-2 conference record.

[tenNesseeCat]

The funny thing about that is Western is not only below Furman in overall SoCon standings.. Furman also beat Western 28-6 at Western. That's a whooping

are we saying we reward teams for scheduling Davidson? The last team in all of FCS? And Gardner Webb. While Furman lost Elon on a last second FG and crushed playoff bound Colgate

Yea, you got us. No doubt about it, but IMO there should be an * next to your "whooping" description. The conditions didn't hinder the FU style of play as much as it did ours. Mainly the passing. We still rushed for our average. Adams going down in the second quarter was a tough hit to the team. The score was only 7-0 at the half. If you didn't know, Adams is one of the most dynamic QB's in the league. He's one of the main reasons our offense has been so good this year. You don't just replace him in game, in those conditions. We couldn't find much rhythm between the rain, loss of Adams, and FU defenders flopping numerous times. It was a good solid win for FU though. The best they'll have this regular season.

As for the Davidson game, it counts, and I like it better than a mars hill game on the schedule. Don't forget, we also play 12 games this year. We have NO bye week this year. Not to mention, the Hawaii game was damn near on the other side of the planet from Cullowhee. So this week, while FU was resting up, WCU was beating The Citadel. The best D in the SoCon. As for GW, it's not like they are an unfamiliar opponent to the SoCon. Matter of fact, they've played some pretty tough games vs SoCon competition in the recent past. So don't set there and act like FU knew Elon was gonna end up a top 10 team this year, or even ranked for that matter. Elon was 2-9 last year, and no where near even receiving votes to be ranked to start the year. They were your pasty that ended up beating you. (side note, they played GW too) It's not like FU scheduled NDSU or JMU. On to Colgate, 5-4 Colgate. It's the Patriot League, in a DOWN year even for their standards. Yea, you beat them, but bragging about it is like bragging about sleeping with the best looking girl at fat camp. Congrats...at least you got laid I guess.

I'm not trying to take anything away from FU. They are a very good team. I just had to call your BS.

[wcugrad95]

I'm not sure what the hate is for exactly as schedules are planned out in advance and do not account for how they will perform. For instance, Elon has (for the most part) always been terrible and they have surprised everybody this year.

As for Westerns schedule, while it is true that we scheduled Davidson, we will have played 2 FBS teams and have no scheduled bye during the year. So if we beat Mercer and lose to UNC to finish 8-4 it will hopefully be enough to get us in as the 3rd team.

For financial reasons (recovering from having to buyout our last coaching staff), WCU has been forced to play 2 FBS games most seasons. In 2014 and 2015, we offset those games with at least one D2 team and it probably cost us playoff berths - certainly it cost us in 2015. We learned from that, and scheduled a Pioneer team (many people do) to give us another D1 game that would be against a relatively local team to offset costs (Davidson the weekend after having to travel 14k miles to and from Hawaii).

Schedules are made in advance. This year, Gardner-Webb was picked to finish 3rd in the Big South and has probably the best player in that conference. If GWU would have been the 3rd best team in that league with maybe 6 wins would that have made the difference? Crystal-ballish to say the least - we have to schedule home-and-homes with some teams, and we have to make them relatively low cost options when we play 2 FBS games. I hope we are about to the end of being forced to do that.

As for Samford, I know they played a D2 school (who by the way is 8-2), but they also have the best OOC win of anybody giving an 8-1 Kennesaw State team their only loss. I don't know how many people at the first of the season thought a win over Kennesaw would be way more impressive than a win over say Gardner Webb, but that is just how scheduling goes some times. And as such, if Samford gets to 6-2 they are going to be in with the most impressive OOC win and wins over Wofford and Furman.

[PaladinFan]

Yea, you got us. No doubt about it, but IMO there should be an * next to your "whooping" description. The conditions didn't hinder the FU style of play as much as it did ours. Mainly the passing. We still rushed for our average. Adams going down in the second quarter was a tough hit to the team. The score was only 7-0 at the half. If you didn't know, Adams is one of the most dynamic QB's in the league. He's one of the main reasons our offense has been so good this year. You don't just replace him in game, in those conditions. We couldn't find much rhythm between the rain, loss of Adams, and FU defenders flopping numerous times. It was a good solid win for FU though. The best they'll have this regular season.

As for the Davidson game, it counts, and I like it better than a mars hill game on the schedule. Don't forget, we also play 12 games this year. We have NO bye week this year. Not to mention, the Hawaii game was damn near on the other side of the planet from Cullowhee. So this week, while FU was resting up, WCU was beating The Citadel. The best D in the SoCon. As for GW, it's not like they are an unfamiliar opponent to the SoCon. Matter of fact, they've played some pretty tough games vs SoCon competition in the recent past. So don't set there and act like FU knew Elon was gonna end up a top 10 team this year, or even ranked for that matter. Elon was 2-9 last year, and no where near even receiving votes to be ranked to start the year. They were your pasty that ended up beating you. (side note, they played GW too) It's not like FU scheduled NDSU or JMU. On to Colgate, 5-4 Colgate. It's the Patriot League, in a DOWN year even for their standards. Yea, you beat them, but bragging about it is like bragging about sleeping with the best looking girl at fat camp. Congrats...at least you got laid I guess.

I'm not trying to take anything away from FU. They are a very good team. I just had to call your BS.

Just to respond, because I feel compelled to:

As a practical matter, Furman and Western played in Cullowhee. The weather was awful, but both teams knew it was going to be nasty and both played in it. Furman won convincingly either way.

Yes, the weather was a factor, but let's not pretend like Furman doesn't throw the ball. Furman averages almost as much passing per game (183 ypg) as WCU does (198 ypg). Furman won essentially running fullback dive nearly 40 times for 325 yards. That isn't "style of play." That's the result of getting your fanny whipped up front.

I do think (as I noted after that game) that there is a pretty serious risk running an offense that requires ideal weather conditions and one or two players being healthy to operate. Invariably, over the course of a season, you will have bad weather or a key player injured - especially a guy that runs the ball as much as Adams. It is not inconceivable that he could take a hit and miss a game.

Furman "flopping" is pure hogwash. WCU's best offensive play ended up being their QB running for his life for 6 yards. Look, if that angle helps you accept the results of the game, then fine. In reality, WCU ran 80 plays and struggled to find any room to breathe once they crossed into Furman territory. That had nothing to do with alledged "flopping."

[wcugrad95]

Regarding the WCU and FU game, both teams played on the same field. Western's offense was obviously more effected by the weather, and the entire team no doubt had a serious letdown when Adams went out. I am not going to argue that the game would have been different had he been able to play the whole game because he doesn't play Defense. But just looking back at the stats we did have more first downs, still got to over 240 yards rushing on 4.5 YPC (kind of negates our best play was a 6-yard QB running for his life comment), and had we scored on the first drive the game ***could have*** been different. Our D also gave up 4 monster plays that contributed to the majority of your yardage - I know those plays and yards count, but those 4 or 5 big plays and Adams being out of the game were the difference in my opinion.

If we lined up to play again this weekend with good weather and everybody healthy, Furman may very well win again. But I don't think most people would expect a game that was 7-0 at the half when Adams went out to be the same "whooping" that the final score portrays. We have given up similar rushing yardage to Wofford (lost in OT) and Citadel (won by 12), but because our offense was able to score some points with Adams on the field those games ended up vastly different. I do think that is the kind of thing the committee will look at, and I think both Western and Furman should be in the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

Okay, it's pretty much this simple when it comes to Samford/Furman.

If Samford wins they are almost certainly in the playoffs. If they lose they are almost certainly out.
Furman at 7-4 has a better chance than Samford by virtue of 1) no bad losses and 2) 7 D1 wins, but it's still in doubt. If they win, they're in, but I'd give them a 60% chance of being left out if they lose

[Reign of Terrier]

And if we're going to split hairs about the Western Carolina-Furman game, my opinion is that 1) Western's offense was clearly more effected by the combination of the weather and Adams coming out but 2) that still doesn't translate to a Western victory.

[tenNesseeCat]

Just to respond, because I feel compelled to:

As a practical matter, Furman and Western played in Cullowhee. The weather was awful, but both teams knew it was going to be nasty and both played in it. Furman won convincingly either way.

Yes, the weather was a factor, but let's not pretend like Furman doesn't throw the ball. Furman averages almost as much passing per game (183 ypg) as WCU does (198 ypg). Furman won essentially running fullback dive nearly 40 times for 325 yards. That isn't "style of play." That's the result of getting your fanny whipped up front.

I do think (as I noted after that game) that there is a pretty serious risk running an offense that requires ideal weather conditions and one or two players being healthy to operate. Invariably, over the course of a season, you will have bad weather or a key player injured - especially a guy that runs the ball as much as Adams. It is not inconceivable that he could take a hit and miss a game.

Furman "flopping" is pure hogwash. WCU's best offensive play ended up being their QB running for his life for 6 yards. Look, if that angle helps you accept the results of the game, then fine. In reality, WCU ran 80 plays and struggled to find any room to breathe once they crossed into Furman territory. That had nothing to do with alledged "flopping."

We didn't have ideal condition for the wofford game, and played them tough. We don't need perfect conditions as you state. Again, yea you got us, but we gave up 4 big plays that led to your scores. Other than that, our D did fairly well. I don't need any angles, we lost to a good FU team. What I'm saying is, the weather hinders our WR more than your FB, and Adams going down required a much bigger adjustment than any of the FU defenders hang nails they hit the dirt over. 99% of teams would struggle to not miss a beat if they lose one of their main playmakers. FU did in recent past. Our back up did lead a scoring drive. So don't act like him going down shouldn't have been a big deal.

No, sorry, it's not hogwash when an FU fan confirms it with with an FU player. It's not worth spilling your wine and cheese over. You can go back to bragging about beating Colgate now. I've said my peace.

[SU DOG]

Okay, it's pretty much this simple when it comes to Samford/Furman.

If Samford wins they are almost certainly in the playoffs. If they lose they are almost certainly out.
Furman at 7-4 has a better chance than Samford by virtue of 1) no bad losses and 2) 7 D1 wins, but it's still in doubt. If they win, they're in, but I'd give them a 60% chance of being left out if they lose

Wait, are you saying that Furman can lose to Samford(provided they both win this week) and still have a better chance to be selected?

[PaladinFan]

We didn't have ideal condition for the wofford game, and played them tough. We don't need perfect conditions as you state. Again, yea you got us, but we gave up 4 big plays that led to your scores. Other than that, our D did fairly well. I don't need any angles, we lost to a good FU team. What I'm saying is, the weather hinders our WR more than your FB, and Adams going down required a much bigger adjustment than any of the FU defenders hang nails they hit the dirt over. 99% of teams would struggle to not miss a beat if they lose one of their main playmakers. FU did in recent past. Our back up did lead a scoring drive. So don't act like him going down shouldn't have been a big deal.

No, sorry, it's not hogwash when an FU fan confirms it with with an FU player. It's not worth spilling your wine and cheese over. You can go back to bragging about beating Colgate now. I've said my peace.

A Furman fan didn't "confirm it." He said that if a Furman player was hurt, that they were instructed to stay on the field and wait medical attention. The reason for that is because WCU wants to snap the ball so quickly that you get into a situation where Furman is trying to substitute a player while WCU is snapping the ball.

That is a completely different thing from faking an injury to slow down Western Carolina. These guys were not faking an injury or flopping, they were staying on the field so WCU didn't snap the ball when Furman had only 10 defenders on the field.

Maybe with only 10 Furman defenders WCU would have stood a better chance.

- - - Updated - - -


Wait, are you saying that Furman can lose to Samford(provided they both win this week) and still have a better chance to be selected?

The only note would be that Furman would have as many wins over D1 opponents and didn't have an embarrassing loss to UTC.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wait, are you saying that Furman can lose to Samford(provided they both win this week) and still have a better chance to be selected?

An 8-3 Samford team is a lock over a 7-4 Furman team (and vice versa). But a 7-4 Furman team has a better shot at making the playoffs than a 7-4 Samford team (by virtue of more D1 wins and no bad losses), but neither a 7-4 Samford or Furman team is a lock.

[wcugrad95]

An 8-3 Samford team is a lock over a 7-4 Furman team (and vice versa). But a 7-4 Furman team has a better shot at making the playoffs than a 7-4 Samford team (by virtue of more D1 wins and no bad losses), but neither a 7-4 Samford or Furman team is a lock.

I agree that because of how the schedules ended up playing out, Furman is the team most likely to get serious consideration if they only get to 7 wins. There is still a lot of football. WCU, Samford, and Furman could all lose this weekend, Samford could end up beating Furman in the last game, and we would have a bunch of teams tied for second at 5-3 and then we could have the unthinkable and only Wofford makes it. Just saying it will all take care of itself, and to take care of your own business you need to be at worse 6-2 in conference.

[SU DOG]

An 8-3 Samford team is a lock over a 7-4 Furman team (and vice versa). But a 7-4 Furman team has a better shot at making the playoffs than a 7-4 Samford team (by virtue of more D1 wins and no bad losses), but neither a 7-4 Samford or Furman team is a lock.

Maybe my coffee is just not taking hold yet, but isn't that the same as saying, provided both teams win this week, that the SU/FU winner is in, and the loser is out? That's the way I see it.

[PaladinFan]

Maybe my coffee is just not taking hold yet, but isn't that the same as saying, provided both teams win this week, that the SU/FU winner is in, and the loser is out? That's the way I see it.

Depends on the rest of the country.

Samford made the field last year at 7-4 with a really ugly loss to ETSU late in the season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Maybe my coffee is just not taking hold yet, but isn't that the same as saying, provided both teams win this week, that the SU/FU winner is in, and the loser is out? That's the way I see it.

That's the likely assessment. Ask me in two weeks. I think the playoff field was a little bit thinner last year and that's why 7-4 Samford benefited, but I don't think they'll repeat this year with that record.

[Milktruck74]

The problem with this discussion is we are not talking about what is going on in the rest of the FCS world. Last weekend, the MVFC basically ate it's own as did the CAA. The next two weeks have some wild match ups (SoCon included)....7 FCS wins was the standard, but that changed last year or the year before, the committee has some hard work to do. I think the SoCon could get 2 in, or 4 in....if we get 2, there will be 2 teams watching, that could easily win a first round game. If we get 4 in, there will be two from another conference watching, that could easily win in the first round. Who knows at this point, but I think the number of SoCon teams in has less to do with what happens in conference and more with what happens in the others.

[kalm]

Two things that shouldnt amount to much when picking at-larges:

Conference record

The anticipated strength of opponents.

[Milktruck74]

Depends on the rest of the country.

Samford made the field last year at 7-4 with a really ugly loss to ETSU late in the season.

I missed this prior to my post.....EXACTLY RIGHT!!!!!

[SU DOG]

A Furman fan didn't "confirm it." He said that if a Furman player was hurt, that they were instructed to stay on the field and wait medical attention. The reason for that is because WCU wants to snap the ball so quickly that you get into a situation where Furman is trying to substitute a player while WCU is snapping the ball.

That is a completely different thing from faking an injury to slow down Western Carolina. These guys were not faking an injury or flopping, they were staying on the field so WCU didn't snap the ball when Furman had only 10 defenders on the field.

Maybe with only 10 Furman defenders WCU would have stood a better chance.

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The only note would be that Furman would have as many wins over D1 opponents and didn't have an embarrassing loss to UTC.

The ONLY note? Kennesaw State win probably better than the Colgate win for FU. Beating the SoCon champion Wofford, and winning the head-to-head with Furman look like pretty good notes to me. There is no way that Furman has a better resume' than Samford if the Dogs win these last 2 games. All this talk is premature I know, but I have to chime in when I see make these kind of statements.

[PaladinFan]

The ONLY note? Kennesaw State win probably better than the Colgate win for FU. Beating the SoCon champion Wofford, and winning the head-to-head with Furman look like pretty good notes to me. There is no way that Furman has a better resume' than Samford if the Dogs win these last 2 games. All this talk is premature I know, but I have to chime in when I see make these kind of statements.

For the record, I don't particularly think that the SoCon really has that many impressive OOC wins.

Colgate and KSU are really the only two that qualify, and both of those teams are somewhat inflated by weak schedules.

I think there's a balancing act. Furman didn't play a D2 team, they played a top 10 Elon team. Furman crushed UTC and WCU, both of whom beat Samford.

So, yes, Samford can point to beating Wofford and Furman's one point loss to the Terriers in Week 1. Furman can point to a tougher schedule, more D1 teams, and hammering the two teams that beat Samford. Maybe the decider is the head to head matchup, which we all assume it will be anyway.

[Reign of Terrier]

The ONLY note? Kennesaw State win probably better than the Colgate win for FU. Beating the SoCon champion Wofford, and winning the head-to-head with Furman look like pretty good notes to me. There is no way that Furman has a better resume' than Samford if the Dogs win these last 2 games. All this talk is premature I know, but I have to chime in when I see make these kind of statements.

I agree with you that Kennesaw was probably a good win, but the committee won't be impressed unless they win the Big South. Their SOS was pretty weak. I think a 7-4 Samford team has a better chance to make the playoffs if Kennesaw wins the Big South because that would be two good wins by Samford and two respectable losses (three if you count UGA).

The Chattanooga loss is really bad on the resume. I know Chattanooga did a 180 in the past month, but it's going to be a sticking point for the Bulldogs. If they get left out at 7-4, that will be the reason why.

[SCPALADIN]

For the record, I don't particularly think that the SoCon really has that many impressive OOC wins.

Colgate and KSU are really the only two that qualify, and both of those teams are somewhat inflated by weak schedules.

I think there's a balancing act. Furman didn't play a D2 team, they played a top 10 Elon team. Furman crushed UTC and WCU, both of whom beat Samford.

So, yes, Samford can point to beating Wofford and Furman's one point loss to the Terriers in Week 1. Furman can point to a tougher schedule, more D1 teams, and hammering the two teams that beat Samford. Maybe the decider is the head to head matchup, which we all assume it will be anyway.
Let's concentrate on beating the Bellhops first...this is all moot without winning Saturday.

[SU DOG]

Let's concentrate on beating the Bellhops first...this is all moot without winning Saturday.

A voice of reason. YES, and ETSU is no gimme for us either.

[soconjohn5]

SU Dog, the reason Furman has a better chance to get to the playoffs is because y'all played a Div. II program, in West Alabama and Furman has one of the best schedules in the SoCon....And that is if Furman loses to Samford and beats The Citadel... Furman won't have lost to an un-ranked foe in either FBS or FCS...Your loss to Chattanooga at home may very well keep y'all out, unless you win both games to close the season.

[soconjohn5]

Furman must beat The Citadel for this even to be a question, however.

[SU DOG]

If we don't win both games we will be out for sure. If we do, however, that would give us 7 D-1 wins, and Furman would also have 7. To then say that their loss head-to-head, our KSU and Wofford wins would still leave us behind Furman in resume' is bizarre, IMO.

[Reign of Terrier]

If we don't win both games we will be out for sure. If we do, however, that would give us 7 D-1 wins, and Furman would also have 7. To then say that their loss head-to-head, our KSU and Wofford wins would still leave us behind Furman in resume' is bizarre, IMO.

No one is saying that

[SU DOG]

Glad to hear that. First confirmation of my statement after several posting attempts to get agreement.

[Reign of Terrier]

I thought I made it clear but obviously not. Win out and Samford is in. lose once and they are most likely out. With Furman it's the same deal, but it's a closer call if they lose (in such a situation Samford gets in, obviously, but Furman might as well)

[wcugrad95]

Samford winning the next 2 games means they are in no questions asked (wins over Kennesaw, Wofford, and Furman). I think they whole thing was running on a question of what happens to any of the teams mentioned if they ONLY get to 7 wins. A 7-win Samford team would only have 6 D1 wins. An 8-win Samford team to me would be no question. I still say it is easier to simply state you need to be at least 6-2 in SoCon play.

[tenNesseeCat]

A Furman fan didn't "confirm it." He said that if a Furman player was hurt, that they were instructed to stay on the field and wait medical attention. The reason for that is because WCU wants to snap the ball so quickly that you get into a situation where Furman is trying to substitute a player while WCU is snapping the ball.

That is a completely different thing from faking an injury to slow down Western Carolina. These guys were not faking an injury or flopping, they were staying on the field so WCU didn't snap the ball when Furman had only 10 defenders on the field.

I'm not saying FU players were faking injury. However, when I see a SoCon official motion to a FU player on the ground to hurry up, it leads me to believe he wasn't very hurt. Milking it, would be a phrase you could use as a description. Multiple times I saw FU defenders laying/sitting on the turf, not grabbing a knee or cramped in pain. Then walk off with no assistance from trainers, except for someone to chat with on their walk. Be offended, butt hurt, or whatever. It happened. I don't care what you say. I was there to see it. This wasn't THE reason WCU didn't have a good game, but I think it hindered our ability to get into a rhythm. The officials holding play to swap out for dry balls was another rhythm hindrance, and frankly quite ridiculous.

FU did what they had to do to win, and I commend them for that. They had a plan that worked. I feel it wasn't the straight out "whoopin" that some FU fans portray. Like saying our best offensive play of the day was a 6 yard QB scramble. 23 yards was our best QB run, from our back up. Newsome went for 110. Our 3rd or 4th string TE caught a pass for 21 yards. We had 350 yards of offense. FU held us on a couple 4th downs and gashed us for 4 big plays. That was the difference in the game.

[Smitty]

Lets just drop this and move on. Discussing it even more now will just end in heartbreak and tears from me...

[PaladinFan]

I'm not saying FU players were faking injury. However, when I see a SoCon official motion to a FU player on the ground to hurry up, it leads me to believe he wasn't very hurt. Milking it, would be a phrase you could use as a description. Multiple times I saw FU defenders laying/sitting on the turf, not grabbing a knee or cramped in pain. Then walk off with no assistance from trainers, except for someone to chat with on their walk. Be offended, butt hurt, or whatever. It happened. I don't care what you say. I was there to see it. This wasn't THE reason WCU didn't have a good game, but I think it hindered our ability to get into a rhythm. The officials holding play to swap out for dry balls was another rhythm hindrance, and frankly quite ridiculous.

FU did what they had to do to win, and I commend them for that. They had a plan that worked. I feel it wasn't the straight out "whoopin" that some FU fans portray. Like saying our best offensive play of the day was a 6 yard QB scramble. 23 yards was our best QB run, from our back up. Newsome went for 110. Our 3rd or 4th string TE caught a pass for 21 yards. We had 350 yards of offense. FU held us on a couple 4th downs and gashed us for 4 big plays. That was the difference in the game.

Found a photo of Furman defenders "flopping" to keep WCU from getting an offensive rhythm.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DN-R66mXUAAiDRF.jpg:large

[wcugrad95]

Is that after his 100th or his 110th yard rushing for an offense missing its starting QB for more than 1/2 the game :)

[tenNesseeCat]

Found a photo of Furman defenders "flopping" to keep WCU from getting an offensive rhythm.

You don't get it. WCU losing to FU isn't what bothers me. It's your pompous attitude. I don't care how over priced your education was at FU, you can't erase what I and others saw.

Here's a pic of an FU defender down, with needed medical attention by his side.

http://thechortle.com/Chortle20/TheChortle1946_Whale.png

[PaladinFan]

Is that after his 100th or his 110th yard rushing for an offense missing its starting QB for more than 1/2 the game :)

Well, probably didn't gain much on that play.

Newsome's a great player. I do think Furman did a pretty respectable job against him. He had 110 yards, but on 26 carries and no run longer than 14 yards. His 4.2 ypc was 3 ypc off his season average. He was 30 yards under his season average rushing total, and didn't score. All told, that's a decent job against the best back in the league.

[PaladinFan]

You don't get it. WCU losing to FU isn't what bothers me. It's your pompous attitude. I don't care how over priced your education was at FU, you can't erase what I and others saw.

Here's a pic of an FU defender down, with needed medical attention by his side.



You will have to excuse me for not agreeing with your opinion and speculation that Furman was some how faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes.

Again, if it helps you to explain why Furman was able to do what they did to Western Carolina two weeks ago, then fine. Just don't expect me to buy it.

[Reign of Terrier]

Calm down fellas you both lost to Wofford:D

[Reign of Terrier]

On another note, I imagine Furmanwins!! will have an aneurysm if Samford beats Furman and Western gets into the playoffs while Furman gets left at home.

[wcugrad95]

Well, probably didn't gain much on that play.

Newsome's a great player. I do think Furman did a pretty respectable job against him. He had 110 yards, but on 26 carries and no run longer than 14 yards. His 4.2 ypc was 3 ypc off his season average. He was 30 yards under his season average rushing total, and didn't score. All told, that's a decent job against the best back in the league.

Agree - and appreciate the recognition about Newsome. His yards were hard-earned in that game. I will say ***maybe*** they would have come a little easier, or he ***might have*** gotten to break off one of his patented long runs had the threat of Adams been there. But that didn't happen in the first half with Adams on the field. I am not going to make excuses - Furman won the game. If we played again on a dry track with our team healthy and PJ went down for you guys in the first half, maybe that is a different outcome. But "maybes" don't count and your win does.

[gofurman]

Yea, you got us. No doubt about it, but IMO there should be an * next to your "whooping" description. The conditions didn't hinder the FU style of play as much as it did ours. Mainly the passing. We still rushed for our average. Adams going down in the second quarter was a tough hit to the team. The score was only 7-0 at the half. If you didn't know, Adams is one of the most dynamic QB's in the league. He's one of the main reasons our offense has been so good this year. You don't just replace him in game, in those conditions. We couldn't find much rhythm between the rain, loss of Adams, and FU defenders flopping numerous times. It was a good solid win for FU though. The best they'll have this regular season.

As for the Davidson game, it counts, and I like it better than a mars hill game on the schedule. Don't forget, we also play 12 games this year. We have NO bye week this year. Not to mention, the Hawaii game was damn near on the other side of the planet from Cullowhee. So this week, while FU was resting up, WCU was beating The Citadel. The best D in the SoCon. As for GW, it's not like they are an unfamiliar opponent to the SoCon. Matter of fact, they've played some pretty tough games vs SoCon competition in the recent past. So don't set there and act like FU knew Elon was gonna end up a top 10 team this year, or even ranked for that matter. Elon was 2-9 last year, and no where near even receiving votes to be ranked to start the year. They were your pasty that ended up beating you. (side note, they played GW too) It's not like FU scheduled NDSU or JMU. On to Colgate, 5-4 Colgate. It's the Patriot League, in a DOWN year even for their standards. Yea, you beat them, but bragging about it is like bragging about sleeping with the best looking girl at fat camp. Congrats...at least you got laid I guess.

I'm not trying to take anything away from FU. They are a very good team. I just had to call your BS.

Man, slow down.. I wasn't picking on WCU. Heck, I love going to games there. Just the original poster had Western as "in the playoffs" as of now and Furman iffy. I was just giving him some facts. FU does lead WCU in conference standings, just a fact, no offense. He is from another conference so I wasn't sure he knew. Yes, your loss to us had some tough aspects - esp Adams going down. I AGREE 100 pct

The rain is the rain is the rain, just like it can snow in playoffs. Hey, its football not baseball - if you have a scheme that necessitates a faster field then that is a chance you take. You are hoping for good weather... and I think you have a great coach and trajectory at WCU... glad you have improved !!!

Look the Colgate win is "ok" I agree.. but it may well be over a playoff team.. Might , might not.. that's all. Not gonna brag immensely on that. Most all SoCon would beat them except VMI and maybe ETSU. maybe.

But don't hit us up for not knowing ELon would be good. You make the schedule and then it plays out the way it goes. There is some luck in that, I agree. I didn't think Elon was that good. Also thought UTC would be better. But, luck or not, turns out ELon IS good. I also thought WCU would be easier - congrats on improving !@!!! serious

I was NOT railing WCU - you all and us are the most improved teams in the league I think. One more year needed for your D to gel and you are scary !

are we good now?

[gofurman]

Let's concentrate on beating the Bellhops first...this is all moot without winning Saturday.

I don't think that is true - just like that 7-4 FU could get in by beating the Citadel and losing to Sammy ..we could possibly get in by losing to Citadel and beating Samford. both are possible. At 7-4 in second scenario, FU would have lost to top10 elon by 3, top10 Woff by 1, NC State - top 20 FBS, and Citadel (underrated) - just ask Wofford or Western... FU would have beaten Colgate (ok), Western (strong), Samford (strong).. IE, Furman would be tied for second in conference at 6-2 but have the h2head over BOTH Western and Samford (the two they were tied with)...

IF THAT Happened - Would you agree that that particular 7-4 FU team would belong? I think the committee would have to look that you have Woff (7-1 conference champ) and 3 teams at 6-2 (Furman, Western, Samfor) but Furman beat both Western and Samford h2h and on the road... I would think that FU team is in regardless if they beat CItadel

Agree, disagree? And I would hope the SoCon gets 3 or 4 teams

[gofurman]

Maybe my coffee is just not taking hold yet, but isn't that the same as saying, provided both teams win this week, that the SU/FU winner is in, and the loser is out? That's the way I see it.

not quite.. he is saying IF both teams win this week that Samford needs to beat fu to get in the playoffs while furman might get in even w a loss to Samford based on other factors (no D2 wins etc). There are several brackets which hint at this too. That furman MIGHT could lose one of these games and get in - but Samford has to win out

Isn't that what you were saying YT?

[wcugrad95]

I don't think that is true - just like that 7-4 FU could get in by beating the Citadel and losing to Sammy ..we could possibly get in by losing to Citadel and beating Samford. both are possible. At 7-4 in second scenario, FU would have lost to top10 elon by 3, top10 Woff by 1, NC State - top 20 FBS, and Citadel (underrated) - just ask Wofford or Western... FU would have beaten Colgate (ok), Western (strong), Samford (strong).. IE, Furman would be tied for second in conference at 6-2 but have the h2head over BOTH Western and Samford (the two they were tied with)...

IF THAT Happened - Would you agree that that particular 7-4 FU team would belong? I think the committee would have to look that you have Woff (7-1 conference champ) and 3 teams at 6-2 (Furman, Western, Samfor) but Furman beat both Western and Samford h2h and on the road... I would think that FU team is in regardless if they beat CItadel

Agree, disagree? And I would hope the SoCon gets 3 or 4 teams

I agree that the Furman/Samford game ***should be*** for a playoff spot. In your scenario, Furman's wins over both Samford and WCU would be a big factor. Samford would end up with only 6 D1 wins, and would have losses to both of the other 6-2 SoCon teams. But the SOS and the W/L number that the committee uses for the SRS poll does not swing wildly for winning or losing to ranked teams. Everybody wants to think it does, but the "points" you get for a home or road win versus a home or road loss don't even factor in how "strong" the opponent was - it only matters the location and if the team was either FBS or non-Division I. That means wins are worth more than losses, road wins are worth more than home wins, etc. The SOS does factor in because all of your opponents are going to get their own SRS W/L number, and then that will factor in to determine your SOS. And that along with your W/L number (multiplied by 2) get divided by your number of games to give you basically an average per game performance.

That means some pure numbers are going to drive the only poll that is ***supposed to*** provide guidance to the committee's decisions. Here are the details about what makes up the SRS. Sorry about all the detail - it hurts my head as much as yours. But instead of saying this win (or loss) is better than that win (or loss), they are all going to go into the machine and then the "feelings" part will be done by the committee based on the non-AQs who show up in the top 24 of so of the SRS.

NCAA SIMPLE RATING SYSTEM (NCAA SRS)
The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for
evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.
The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated
largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).
A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.
A team’s WL measure factors whether a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site); and the
NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.
1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses
one point.
2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for
the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there
is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.
3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I
opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home
win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35
points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).
4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.
5. Margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is capped at 21 points.
The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their
opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The
NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12
regular-season games).
Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.
The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s
NCAA SRS rating.
The NCAA SRS will not “force select” any teams into the championship; rather, it is one of several resources that
the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under
consideration for championship selection.
The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will begin reviewing NCAA SRS data during the later portion of the
football season as it prepares for championship selections. At that time, NCAA SRS rankings may also be posted on the
NCAA website (www.ncaa.com/fcs).

[Reign of Terrier]

The more I look at the potential 8-win teams, the less convinced I am that an 8-win Samford team is a lock to be honest

[LarryBoy]

Since we can't let go of the Furman flopping thing, here's my two cents. And I really try to be as objective as I can in these situations, though I realize that that's nearly impossible for any die-hard fan. (Also, I didn't go through the suffering of reading through this entire pissing match, so forgive me if I rehash anyone's arguments.)

From what I saw and what I've heard, I think the Furman coaches have been implementing a "if you're hurt, stay down" philosophy this season. Basically, "When you're hurt, you're not required to immediately get off the field, so don't." When a player is hurt, that player is allowed the time to receive treatment and the team is allowed that time to account for that player leaving the game.

I don't think any Furman players faked injuries at the Western game. In those conditions, it's amazing that both teams came out alive.

But I'm absolutely sure that some Furman players that were legitimately hurt but able to get off under their own power did not immediately do so.

Would I be irritated about this if I was a fan of the other team? Yeah, probably.

Could I be convinced that this somehow accounted for the 22 points separating Furman and Western? Hell no.

Could I be convinced that Western would have had a better shot in that game in good conditions? Yeah, probably. But I'd still pick Furman in a close one. Our running gameplan and success mirrored last year's game exactly, which was played on a very nice evening. Western's D-Line is probably their lone weakness, and that plays into Furman's strength very well, unfortunately for Western.

And I'm pretty sure the vast majority of informed Furman fans would tell you something similar. I've got a lot of respect for how quickly Western has turned things around this year, and I'd wager they're the most purely talented team we've seen so far this year outside of NC State (Before anyone says anything, Wofford is never the most purely talented team we see, and it never seems to matter. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ). I'd take Western over Elon in a heartbeat.

I feel like I have to keep apologizing for some Furman newbies on this board, but seriously, ignore them. Every fan base has 'em.

[wcugrad95]

The more I look at the potential 8-win teams, the less convinced I am that an 8-win Samford team is a lock to be honest

If you look at the selection committee information and the SRS ranking, it is really built upon getting wins and then the SRS scores of the teams you played against. Samford's DII win doesn't count as much as a DI win, but the difference is only .1 and that will get factored in and divided by the total number of games. So no win is a "bad" win unless it is to a non-NCAA or DIII or lower team where you don't get any points. The West Alabama win just counts fractionally less than a DI win. If Samford gets to 8 wins, that means their WL number from that SRS ranking is going to be good, and it will mean they have wins over KSU, Wofford, and Furman. I am not going to pretend that I am pulling for anybody other than WCU to get in, but if an 8-3 team with wins over what could be 3 teams that were ranked by the end of the year wouldn't get you in, that means a lot of teams should get left home.

[PaladinFan]

Since we can't let go of the Furman flopping thing, here's my two cents. And I really try to be as objective as I can in these situations, though I realize that that's nearly impossible for any die-hard fan. (Also, I didn't go through the suffering of reading through this entire pissing match, so forgive me if I rehash anyone's arguments.)

From what I saw and what I've heard, I think the Furman coaches have been implementing a "if you're hurt, stay down" philosophy this season. Basically, "When you're hurt, you're not required to immediately get off the field, so don't." When a player is hurt, that player is allowed the time to receive treatment and the team is allowed that time to account for that player leaving the game.

I don't think any Furman players faked injuries at the Western game. In those conditions, it's amazing that both teams came out alive.

But I'm absolutely sure that some Furman players that were legitimately hurt but able to get off under their own power did not immediately do so.

Would I be irritated about this if I was a fan of the other team? Yeah, probably.

Could I be convinced that this somehow accounted for the 22 points separating Furman and Western? Hell no.

Could I be convinced that Western would have had a better shot in that game in good conditions? Yeah, probably. But I'd still pick Furman in a close one. Our running gameplan and success mirrored last year's game exactly, which was played on a very nice evening. Western's D-Line is probably their lone weakness, and that plays into Furman's strength very well, unfortunately for Western.

And I'm pretty sure the vast majority of informed Furman fans would tell you something similar. I've got a lot of respect for how quickly Western has turned things around this year, and I'd wager they're the most purely talented team we've seen so far this year outside of NC State (Before anyone says anything, Wofford is never the most purely talented team we see, and it never seems to matter. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ). I'd take Western over Elon in a heartbeat.

I feel like I have to keep apologizing for some Furman newbies on this board, but seriously, ignore them. Every fan base has 'em.

That's a reasonable assessment and perhaps a better way of making the point. I do not, however, need you to apologize for me. I've been on this forum a minute or two.

I do think that if the teams played in better weather it would have been a completely different football game. Both teams would have had use of their entire offense. It is not as though WCU was the only team playing with a limited playbook given the conditions.

[LarryBoy]

That's a reasonable assessment and perhaps a better way of making the point. I do not, however, need you to apologize for me. I've been on this forum a minute or two.

I do think that if the teams played in better weather it would have been a completely different football game. Both teams would have had use of their entire offense. It is not as though WCU was the only team playing with a limited playbook given the conditions.

Wasn't even necessarily talking about you, but sorry if I offended.

[SU DOG]

If you look at the selection committee information and the SRS ranking, it is really built upon getting wins and then the SRS scores of the teams you played against. Samford's DII win doesn't count as much as a DI win, but the difference is only .1 and that will get factored in and divided by the total number of games. So no win is a "bad" win unless it is to a non-NCAA or DIII or lower team where you don't get any points. The West Alabama win just counts fractionally less than a DI win. If Samford gets to 8 wins, that means their WL number from that SRS ranking is going to be good, and it will mean they have wins over KSU, Wofford, and Furman. I am not going to pretend that I am pulling for anybody other than WCU to get in, but if an 8-3 team with wins over what could be 3 teams that were ranked by the end of the year wouldn't get you in, that means a lot of teams should get left home.

Thanks wcugrad95. I am confident that IF we can get these next 2 wins that we are in. I just hope about 6 injured players that we count on can get well and give us a chance to do so.

[Reign of Terrier]

Thanks wcugrad95. I am confident that IF we can get these next 2 wins that we are in. I just hope about 6 injured players that we count on can get well and give us a chance to do so.

If Kennesaw gets the AQ for the Big South and Samford wins out, I think they're a lock.

I'm a little hesitant to say they are otherwise because of how loaded the field is

[wcugrad95]

Thanks wcugrad95. I am confident that IF we can get these next 2 wins that we are in. I just hope about 6 injured players that we count on can get well and give us a chance to do so.

Now I will crush you and say that I am pulling hard for ETSU to win this weekend and next to get them to 6 wins. Likewise I am pulling for Citadel to beat Furman so they can also get to 6 wins. That is my selfish part - that would give the SoCon 2 more teams that raise their SRS scores which in turn raises the SOS part of any team who played them, and for me that matters because Western needs that mathematical help along with a tough win against Mercer :)

It is crazy this year with the number of teams who are going to be so close on that bubble line. It won't be a last 4 in and out - it will probably be more like a last 6 or 7.

[gofurman]

Furman must beat The Citadel for this even to be a question, however.

Curious in peoples thoughts - do you think Furman could lose to Citadel and beat Samford and get in? We would still be 7-4/// It's a worse' loss but a much better win. Higher variance if you will. FU would then have wins over Samford (on road), Colgate (ok win- on road) , Western (on road by 21 pts) and a 1 pt loss to Woff (on road) and a 3 pt loss to Elon (home). That would be some strong wins .. thoughts?? I am also noting that most all of our toughest games were on the road.. which the committee formula supposedly accounts for.

Anyone? interested in yo' thoughts as AGS has the most informed people on FCS !

[wcugrad95]

As for the SRS, going 1-1 equals out for your WL ratio (you get -1.25 for a home loss and +1.25 for a road win, or you get+.75 for a home win and lose -.75 for a road loss against FCS competition). The perceived "quality" of the win or loss based on what a team's ranking at the time isn't necessarily a true indication - your SOS component will get calculated when all the games are played and each team you played against gets their own SRS rating. So losing a close game to a team who was #1 to begin the season, but that team ends up going 3-8 and their SRS in the end is low will actually hurt your calculation.

The NCAA guards just enough of the information and variables to make it near impossible to calculate how they are figuring out the SRS rating (margin of victory counts, but I don't know how much; the FBS teams you play should have an SRS number to use but I don't know what that should be, etc.).

As for your scenario and the SRS system, I am not sure it will make a huge difference to the ratings because you would be 1-1 and in theory the overall SRS scores for Citadel and Samford wouldn't change drastically. But that is just for the "points" part of the discussion. If a 7-4 Furman is considered and it goes to people discussing it, I'd think human nature would lean to more "good wins" being more important than "good losses". And with this, Citadel would also move to being a 6-win team that would help everybody in the conference (and not be a "bad" loss).

[walliver]

My impression of the committee decisions are that the committee chooses who the committee chooses to choose. They will spin the SRS if it helps their cause. They will play up a close FBS loss if it helps. They will play up or down a bad loss if it fits their narrative. Conference and regional politics play a major role. Recent history, especially playoff success in recent years plays a role. On occasion, a long tradition of football success outweighs a newcomer's breakout season.

[Reign of Terrier]

I know a guy who talked to Richard Johnson (Wofford's AD, the chairman of the committee this year who was on the committee last year).

The reason why Samford got in was because of the win over UCA and Wofford and the overall SOS in spite of the D2 game.

[PaladinFan]

I know a guy who talked to Richard Johnson (Wofford's AD, the chairman of the committee this year who was on the committee last year).

The reason why Samford got in was because of the win over UCA and Wofford and the overall SOS in spite of the D2 game.

I mean, I could have told you that and I don't know anyone. It's the only logical explanation.

[walliver]

I know a guy who talked to Richard Johnson (Wofford's AD, the chairman of the committee this year who was on the committee last year).

The reason why Samford got in was because of the win over UCA and Wofford and the overall SOS in spite of the D2 game.

After several disappointing seasons of quarterback by committee, it was good to be recognized as one of somebody's "big wins".

[PaladinFan]

After several disappointing seasons of quarterback by committee, it was good to be recognized as one of somebody's "big wins".

It's a little surprising. Wofford had a banner year last season, but they did not even break into the top 25 until late in the season after beating UTC. Prior to that, they really had not beaten anyone worth mentioning.

Not to take anything away from Wofford, but if the committee was persuaded to include Samford based upon their win over an eventual 8-3 Wofford team, I think the same rationale would apply to Furman's convincing win in Cullowhee (provided they get to 8 wins).

[Reign of Terrier]

I mean, I could have told you that and I don't know anyone. It's the only logical explanation.

I bring it up only because the exact justification was speculated in this thread. in one light, this year a 7-4 Samford team would have pretty much an identical resume, but not so much Furman, which would have more D1 wins but less wins against playoff teams.

So I guess if you absolutely squint and things happen, conceivably a 7-4 Samford might make it but still it's not a risk I'd take with the current field.

[walliver]

It's a little surprising. Wofford had a banner year last season, but they did not even break into the top 25 until late in the season after beating UTC. Prior to that, they really had not beaten anyone worth mentioning.

Not to take anything away from Wofford, but if the committee was persuaded to include Samford based upon their win over an eventual 8-3 Wofford team, I think the same rationale would apply to Furman's convincing win in Cullowhee (provided they get to 8 wins).

It's the general lagging in the polls that has also affected Furman this year. When Wofford's football success began to wane in midseason 2013 as injuries piled up, we remained in the polls well after it was obvious there was a problem. When Ayers and company turned things around in early 2016, it took a lot of work to overcome the inertia of the previous several years, an effect exacerbated by the national perception that the SoCon was "down" after the loss of ASU and GSU and replacing them with two startups and VMI.

AD's and marketing guys frequently play up wins over "then #whatever" in promotion materials, but in the end, only the post-season rankings make any sense, and even then there is a great deal of historical bias present.

[Reign of Terrier]

It's the general lagging in the polls that has also affected Furman this year. When Wofford's football success began to wane in midseason 2013 as injuries piled up, we remained in the polls well after it was obvious there was a problem. When Ayers and company turned things around in early 2016, it took a lot of work to overcome the inertia of the previous several years, an effect exacerbated by the national perception that the SoCon was "down" after the loss of ASU and GSU and replacing them with two startups and VMI.

AD's and marketing guys frequently play up wins over "then #whatever" in promotion materials, but in the end, only the post-season rankings make any sense, and even then there is a great deal of historical bias present.

Wofford in 2013 was 5-2 going into the 8th game, having lost only to GW 0-3 in the monsoon. We had an easy schedule at the front end that suggested deeper problems.

We lost our last four games

[PaladinFan]

It's the general lagging in the polls that has also affected Furman this year. When Wofford's football success began to wane in midseason 2013 as injuries piled up, we remained in the polls well after it was obvious there was a problem. When Ayers and company turned things around in early 2016, it took a lot of work to overcome the inertia of the previous several years, an effect exacerbated by the national perception that the SoCon was "down" after the loss of ASU and GSU and replacing them with two startups and VMI.

AD's and marketing guys frequently play up wins over "then #whatever" in promotion materials, but in the end, only the post-season rankings make any sense, and even then there is a great deal of historical bias present.

Right, but even last year, Wofford really hadn't done much with their schedule until beating UTC. They played Johnson C. Smith, a meh OVC school, the usual suspsects of underwhelming SoCon teams, and lost to really the only good conference teams they had played (Samford and the Citadel).

[wcugrad95]

AD's and marketing guys frequently play up wins over "then #whatever" in promotion materials, but in the end, only the post-season rankings make any sense, and even then there is a great deal of historical bias present.

And don't forget "message-board-guy" (myself included) on the in-season marketing. I agree that the end result of teams is what matters. UTC was ranked at the first of the season. So should JSU's win against them mean more than the other SoCon teams who beat the Mocs even worse? Same with Citadel - was it a better win to beat them in the first 3 or 4 weeks than it is to beat them in the last few weeks? They keep a stat of wins versus top-25 teams, but I would argue that column should be recalculated at the end of the season for teams who actually finish in the top-25. You don't know how good a team is until you get more games to judge them (and ideally you get to see them play at least another good team).