2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 3)

[grizband]

2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 3)

Disclaimer:
I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hashtag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.

Big Sky
*Southern Utah (7-2)

Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1#
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
Sacramento State (5-4) must go 2-0
UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0

Montana State (4-5) eliminated
Idaho State (4-5) eliminated
Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
*Kennesaw State (8-1)
*Monmouth (8-1)

Charleston Southern (4-4) eliminated
Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (9-0)
*Elon (8-1)
*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2

New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-3) must go 1-1
Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0

Maine (4-4) eliminated
Villanova (4-5) eliminated
Albany (3-5) eliminated
Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (9-0)

NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1#
Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0

Hampton (5-4)^ eliminated
Norfolk State 3-5 eliminated
Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2)
*South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2

Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Southern Illinois (4-5) eliminated
Youngstown State (3-5) eliminated
Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (7-2) must go 1-1#
CCSU (6-3) must go 2-0#

Saint Francis (5-4) eliminated

Sacred Heart (3-5) eliminated
Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (8-1)

Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0

Tennessee State (4-3) eliminated
SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0

Bucknell (4-5) eliminated
Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (7-2) must go 1-1#

Drake (6-4) eliminated
Campbell (5-4) eliminated
Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
*Wofford (8-1)
*Western Carolina (7-3) +

Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
Samford (6-3) must go 2-0#

Mercer (4-5) eliminated
The Citadel (5-4) eliminated
ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
*Central Arkansas (8-1)
*Sam Houston State (8-1)
*Nicholls (7-2)

McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1#

SE Louisiana (5-5) eliminated
Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0#

[grizband]

Preliminary Analysis:
16 teams have already reached 7 Division 1 wins
25 other teams can still reach 7 D1 wins; of these, 11 teams must win out to reach 7 D1 wins

[grizband]

List with eliminated teams removed

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hashtag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.

Big Sky
*Southern Utah (7-2)

Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1#
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
Sacramento State (5-4) must go 2-0
UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0

Big South
*Kennesaw State (8-1)
*Monmouth (8-1)

Colonial
*James Madison (9-0)
*Elon (8-1)
*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2

New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-2) must go 1-1
Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (9-0)

NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1#
Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2)
*South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2

Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Northeast
Duquesne (7-2) must go 1-1#
CCSU (6-3) must go 2-0#

Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (8-1)

Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0

Pioneer
San Diego (7-2) must go 1-1#

Southern
*Wofford (8-1)
*Western Carolina (7-3) +

Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
Samford (6-3) must go 2-0#

Southland
*Central Arkansas (8-1)
*Sam Houston State (8-1)
*Nicholls (7-2)

McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1#

SWAC
Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0#

[grizband]

Big Sky Conference (games remaining)
*Southern Utah (5-1 7-2) UC Davis and Northern Arizona
Weber State (5-1 7-2) Portland State and Idaho State
Northern Arizona (5-1 6-3) Montana State and Southern Utah
Montana (4-2 6-3) Northern Colorado and Montana State
Eastern Washington (4-2 5-4) North Dakota and Portland State
Sacramento State (4-2 5-4) Cal Poly and UC Davis
UC Davis (4-2 5-4) Southern Utah and Sacramento State

[Reign of Terrier]

Once again, good stuff. Below I've made note of teams are probably in the playoffs (locks) designated with a ^ (I didn't designate SUU as a lock because the Big Sky seems sporadic this year and didn't feel knowledgeable enough to designate them as a lock). Also Wofford has an FBS team remaining (South Carolina)

Key:
Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins.
Teams listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.
Teams followed by a hashtag (#) have played a lower division team
Teams followed by a plus sign (+) have an FBS team remaining on their schedule.

Big Sky
*Southern Utah (7-2)

Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1#
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
Sacramento State (5-4) must go 2-0
UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0

Big South
*Kennesaw State (8-1)
*Monmouth (8-1)

Colonial
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2

New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-2) must go 1-1
Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (9-0)

NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1#
Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0

Missouri Valley
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2

Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Northeast
Duquesne (7-2) must go 1-1#
CCSU (6-3) must go 2-0#

Ohio Valley
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)

Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0

Pioneer
San Diego (7-2) must go 1-1#

Southern
^*Wofford (8-1) +
*Western Carolina (7-3) +

Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
Samford (6-3) must go 2-0#

Southland
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
*Nicholls (7-2)

McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1#

SWAC
Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0#


So I count 10 *for sure* locks based upon this list for this week.

I think we need to have a discussion focused on bubbles more than the for-sure in teams

[BEAR]

Locks: 10 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1) +
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)


14 Spots left

[Reign of Terrier]

Locks: 10 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1) +
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)


14 Spots left




I would add then:

Probably in
*Southern Utah (7-2)
Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1#
New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-2) must go 1-1
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Autobids:
Patriot
Pioneer
Big South
NEC

Fighting for survival (4 Slots):
1. Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
2.Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
3. Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
4. Sacramento State (5-4) must go 2-0
5. UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0
6. loser of *Kennesaw State (8-1)/*Monmouth (8-1)
7. Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0
8. *North Carolina A&T (9-0)
9. NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1#
10. Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
11. Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0
12. Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
13. Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
14. Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0
15. Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
16. Samford (6-3) must go 2-0#
17. *Nicholls (7-2)
18. McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1#
19. Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0#

Note: just because a team is listed in the above category does not mean if they win out that they will likely get a bid

[ccd494]

Well, not really 14 because:

Locks: 15 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2)
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2)
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1)
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
Big Sky Champ
Big South Champ
Northeast Champ
Patriot Champ
Pioneer Champ



9 Spots left

The five conferences with at larges locked up:

Colonial- JMU and Elon play each other and thus at least one of the two will finish 7-1 at worst and not let UNH or Delaware into a tiebreaker
MVFC- ISUred and UNI still in the mix for some sort of tiebreaker.
OVC- One win over Martin or TSU wraps it up for JSU.
SoCon- Furman would have to win out against The Citadel and Samford while Wofford loses to VMI. Unlikely.
Southland- Nicholls is the only non-Central Arkansas or SHSU team alive, they'd need to win (SFA, SELA) out with both UCA (IWU and ACU) and SHSU (ACU, HBU) losing out.

So, the MVFC is really the only conference left that could "cannibalize" the bubble, but they also represent almost the entire bubble, so...

[CappinHard]

Should Stony Brook and South Dakota State have (must go 1-2) behind theirs when they haven't played a lower division team?

[Reign of Terrier]

Well, not really 14 because:

Locks: 15 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2)
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2)
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1)
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
Big Sky Champ
Big South Champ
Northeast Champ
Patriot Champ
Pioneer Champ



9 Spots left

The five conferences with at larges locked up:

Colonial- JMU and Elon play each other and thus at least one of the two will finish 7-1 at worst and not let UNH or Delaware into a tiebreaker
MVFC- ISUred and UNI still in the mix for some sort of tiebreaker.
OVC- One win over Martin or TSU wraps it up for JSU.
SoCon- Furman would have to win out against The Citadel and Samford while Wofford loses to VMI. Unlikely.
Southland- Nicholls is the only non-Central Arkansas or SHSU team alive, they'd need to win (SFA, SELA) out with both UCA (IWU and ACU) and SHSU (ACU, HBU) losing out.

So, the MVFC is really the only conference left that could "cannibalize" the bubble, but they also represent almost the entire bubble, so...

yeah that's a more visually correct perspective, I presumed 5 autobids + an at large from Big Sky but didn't make that clear.

Also Furman doesn't need Wofford to lose to make the playoffs if the win out.

[WestCoastAggie]

If NCCU beats A&T, whose At-Large bid will that take away?

[ccd494]

Also Furman doesn't need Wofford to lose to make the playoffs if the win out.

So Wofford is 6-1 in the SoCon, Furman is 5-1. If Wofford beats VMI, they finish 7-1. Furman winning out gets them to 7-1 in the league. Wofford beat Furman. Is the tiebreaker not head to head?

[Reign of Terrier]

So Wofford is 6-1 in the SoCon, Furman is 5-1. If Wofford beats VMI, they finish 7-1. Furman winning out gets them to 7-1 in the league. Wofford beat Furman. Is the tiebreaker not head to head?

Furman at 8-3 would have 2 1-score losses (1 point and 3) to playoff-bound Wofford and Elon. They would have big wins against Colgate (possible Patriot AQ), Western Carolina (likely in the playoffs), and a 7-4 Samford team. They also boast the biggest margin of victory rate in the Socon.

8-3 Furman doesn't get the autobid, but they are a lock for the playoffs.

[BNATION]

I would love to see a 9-2 Nicholls team get a shot. They have played up against FBS schools extremely well. Lost by 10 to Texas A&M this year (only team to play Bama Competively) and by 2 to Georgia last year. They would turn heads in the playoffs and wouldn't be suprised if they were a second round team as 3rd in the SLC.

[soconjohn5]

Maine fan is mis-guided on his SoCon assessments

[clenz]

UNI will go 2-0to finish. Will be 7-4 and 6-2 in MVFC play. They will finish, as I think they’ll win every tie break, second in the MVFC.

Wins over SDSU and USD
Loss to WIU was with 7 seconds left.
Loss to SUI was with a minute left on a FG.

No way they aren’t in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[93henfan]

Minor point, but Delaware is 6-3, not 6-2.

[JMUNJ08]

Well, not really 14 because:

Locks: 15 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2)
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2)
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1)
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
Big Sky Champ
Big South Champ
Northeast Champ
Patriot Champ
Pioneer Champ



9 Spots left

The five conferences with at larges locked up:

Colonial- JMU and Elon play each other and thus at least one of the two will finish 7-1 at worst and not let UNH or Delaware into a tiebreaker
MVFC- ISUred and UNI still in the mix for some sort of tiebreaker.
OVC- One win over Martin or TSU wraps it up for JSU.
SoCon- Furman would have to win out against The Citadel and Samford while Wofford loses to VMI. Unlikely.
Southland- Nicholls is the only non-Central Arkansas or SHSU team alive, they'd need to win (SFA, SELA) out with both UCA (IWU and ACU) and SHSU (ACU, HBU) losing out.

So, the MVFC is really the only conference left that could "cannibalize" the bubble, but they also represent almost the entire bubble, so...

With how BAD the bottom of the SLC is, can we really say Central & Sam are locks if the lose out?

[BNATION]

Lets talk about the bottom of the CAA, MVFC, Big Sky, Big South, SoCon, i mean every single conference has 2-3 dogs every single year. The CAA has 4 teams under .500 overall and 6 in conference play. #Glasshouse


With how BAD the bottom of the SLC is, can we really say Central & Sam are locks if the lose out?

[BEAR]

Lets talk about the bottom of the CAA, MVFC, Big Sky, Big South, SoCon, i mean every single conference has 2-3 dogs every single year. The CAA has 4 teams under .500 overall and 6 in conference play. #Glasshouse

Plus if UCA loses to UIW and ACU they would be 8-3 and McNeese and SHSU would win the conference. Plus so much more...

[JMUNJ08]

Lets talk about the bottom of the CAA, MVFC, Big Sky, Big South, SoCon, i mean every single conference has 2-3 dogs every single year. The CAA has 4 teams under .500 overall and 6 in conference play. #Glasshouse

Sorry, the bottom 7!!!!! teams in your conference have no OOC W's. Only SHSU beat a team that is even sniffing the playoff discussion (if JMU beats UR this weekend then that would make the conference 0 for the year) with Murray St. being the only W outside of the SWAC... Yes, the other conferences have 2-3 dogs but I'm not sure they have over HALF the conference who could be considered the same... The 9 game conference schedule hurts big time as the patsy/ FBS route leaves much to the imagination...

[Reign of Terrier]

I think this is the best way to look at the playoff race right now:

Locks: 15 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1) +
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
NEC Team
Patriot Team
Pioneer Team
Big Sky team (NAU/SUU/Weber)
Big South team

Then we have 9 slots to fill (8 bc one of the Big Sky teams is going to be the autobid). I omitted the HBCU conferences, because history tells us they likely won't get selected. I didn't list the total teams (which have been listed ad nauseum) or the teams in the one-bid leagues either.

NC A&T is in if they lose to NCCU

Southern Utah needs to win one and they are likely in; I'm tempted to call them a lock. The same goes for Western Carolina


These teams need to win out and they are almost definitely in (unless the field is too crowded); the basic principle is that 8-3 will get in for most teams/conferences 7-4 is likely for MVFC and Richmond (given their schedule and hypothetical win over JMU) because when the dust settles there won't be as many 8-3 teams as you'd think. Bolded teams play another team on the list. Asterisked teams play one of the lock teams


Richmond (probably the weakest link)
Weber State
New Hampshire*
Delaware
Montana
Illinois State**
Northern Iowa
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford
Nichols
McNeese
Western Illinois
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah


Lose one and it’s too close to call


Furman
Delaware
New Hampshire
Western Illinois
Northern Arizona
Kennesaw/Monmouth
Illinois State
Weber State


Lose one and they are almost definitely out (they either have a bad loss or no quality win or 5 losses on the year):


Montana
Samford
Nicholls
Richmond
McNeese
Austin Peay
EWU
Sac State
UC Davis
Northern Iowa



If they win out, may not get in:


Austin Peay
Eastern Washington
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Montana (I'm putting them here because Montana fans say it)

[BNATION]

You dont know football too good huh? God Bless you. Cant wait for the playoffs.


Sorry, the bottom 7!!!!! teams in your conference have no OOC W's. Only SHSU beat a team that is even sniffing the playoff discussion (if JMU beats UR this weekend then that would make the conference 0 for the year) with Murray St. being the only W outside of the SWAC... Yes, the other conferences have 2-3 dogs but I'm not sure they have over HALF the conference who could be considered the same... The 9 game conference schedule hurts big time as the patsy/ FBS route leaves much to the imagination...

[JMUNJ08]

You dont know football too good huh? God Bless you. Cant wait for the playoffs.

I may have watched a quarterfinal or 2 last year... and also watched the PV A&M game you guys had earlier this year. My football knowledge expands beyond 1 state/ team to take in many opinions... sadly, yours counts as well... just have to go with what I have seen I guess

[wcugrad95]

I would add then:

Probably in
*Southern Utah (7-2)
Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1#
New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-2) must go 1-1
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Autobids:
Patriot
Pioneer
Big South
NEC

Fighting for survival (4 Slots):
1. Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
2.Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
3. Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
4. Sacramento State (5-4) must go 2-0
5. UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0
6. loser of *Kennesaw State (8-1)/*Monmouth (8-1)
7. Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0
8. *North Carolina A&T (9-0)
9. NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1#
10. Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
11. Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0
12. Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
13. Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
14. Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0
15. Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
16. Samford (6-3) must go 2-0#
17. *Nicholls (7-2)
18. McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1#
19. Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0#

Note: just because a team is listed in the above category does not mean if they win out that they will likely get a bid

I would think a ranked team like WCU (from your own conference) should get on this list somewhere with a "needs to go 1-1" note :)

[Reign of Terrier]

I honestly don't know how I missed them

[wcugrad95]

Just goes to show how hard the job is going to be this year. Lots of volatility for those at-large spots, and lots of arguments about one conference over another. Everybody that gets to 7+ FCS wins and have some quality losses (or multiple FBS games on their schedule) is going to have some valid points.

[ST_Lawson]

I think this is the best way to look at the playoff race right now:

Locks: 15 teams
^*James Madison (9-0)
^*Elon (8-1)
^*Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-2
*^North Dakota State (8-1)
*^South Dakota (7-2)
*^South Dakota State (7-2) must go 1-2
^*Jacksonville State (8-1)
^*Wofford (8-1) +
^*Central Arkansas (8-1)
^*Sam Houston State (8-1)
NEC Team
Patriot Team
Pioneer Team
Big Sky team (NAU/SUU/Weber)
Big South team
...





I think it's possible that USD isn't a lock quite yet actually. They lost to UNI and have games at NDSU and home vs SDSU to finish the season. If they lose those two games, and especially if they aren't even that close, then they'll be 7-4 having lost the last 3 games of the season. They'll be losses to very good teams, but as we saw with YSU back in 2013, the committee doesn't like it when you fall on your face at the end of the season.

UNI could very well finish 7-4 as well, but with 3 straight wins to finish the season and with a win over SDSU and the head-to-head win over USD.

If it comes down to 7-4 USD vs 7-4 UNI for one of the last spots, I'd have to imagine that the committee would lean towards UNI in that situation.

[ccd494]

Maine fan is mis-guided on his SoCon assessments

What assessment? I at no point made any statements about if Team A or Team B wins out they will be an at large lock.

I took the teams designated as locks already by the poster above me, added the conferences without an at large lock, and said there are nine spots left for teams that have not yet locked up a spot.

Then, I looked at the five conferences with at larges to see if anyone could "steal" a bid by winning the conference ahead of one of the "locks." I said to do so, "Furman would have to win out against The Citadel and Samford while Wofford loses to VMI. Unlikely." What part of that is wrong? Furman is going to need an at large. And they weren't designated a "Lock" by posters above me. That is the statement I made. Please explain what about my post was incorrect.

If you need me to use smaller words, let me know.

[Reign of Terrier]

The more I stare at my computer screen trying to figure out these teams, I'm going to make a bold(ish) prediction(s):

I think all teams being considered for playoffs out of the MVFC except UNI and Illinois State will finish 8-3, giving them 5.

There will only be 3 teams under serious consideration for playoffs in the event that they finish 7-4:
UNI (likely in)
Furman (it depends)
UNA (it depends)

I think it's going to be a tough call if Nichols and McNeese finish 9-2. Even though their SOS isn't too great, they'll have more D1 wins than Furman or UNA and it'll be hard to keep them out if UCA and SHSU are sitting there at 10-1 a piece, if that makes sense. Optically having a conference with 4 teams with 9+ D1 wins just looks better for playoff purposes than a conference like the Socon which will only have 1 with 9, 2 with 8 and another with 6/7. I understand the argument either way for keeping a hypothetical 7-4 Furman/UNA out in favor of a couple 9-2 Southland teams and vice versa. I don't think the conversation happens if both Furman and Northern Arizona are sitting at 8-3.

[clenz]

I think it's possible that USD isn't a lock quite yet actually. They lost to UNI and have games at NDSU and home vs SDSU to finish the season. If they lose those two games, and especially if they aren't even that close, then they'll be 7-4 having lost the last 3 games of the season. They'll be losses to very good teams, but as we saw with YSU back in 2013, the committee doesn't like it when you fall on your face at the end of the season.

UNI could very well finish 7-4 as well, but with 3 straight wins to finish the season and with a win over SDSU and the head-to-head win over USD.

If it comes down to 7-4 USD vs 7-4 UNI for one of the last spots, I'd have to imagine that the committee would lean towards UNI in that situation.
USD is in a very dangerous spot. They could go from top 5 to out of the playoffs in a month. Their front half of the schedule was weak as hell, and they were getting a ton of credit they may not have truly deserved - from myself included. Their wins were a bad PFL team (who has zero D1 scholarship wins), a bad MAC team with 2 wins, and a 3-8 Big Sky team. Their 4 conference wins so far are Western Illinois in September and then 6th place YSU, 10th place ISUb, and 9th place SIU. They'll have lost their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 with their lone win in that stretch over that time being the aforementioned 9th place SIU.

Current computer projections for the MVFC have this as the final standings - and this is with tie breakers applied



NDSU
10
-
1
__
7
-
1


UNI
7
-
4
__
6
-
2


SDSU
9
-
2
__
6
-
2


WIU
8
-
3
__
5
-
3


ISUR
6
-
5
__
4
-
4


USD
7
-
4
__
4
-
4


YSU
6
-
5
__
4
-
4


MSU
3
-
8
__
2
-
6


SIU
4
-
7
__
2
-
6


ISUB
0
-
11
__
0
-
8




As you start looking at that you've got:
NDSU as the auto.
UNI is a 100% lock as the 2nd place finisher. No one in the MVFC is finishing second and not getting in - especially at 7 wins
SDSU is a 100% lock
WIU is a 100% lock

There's 4. Do we get 5 or 6? If we get 5 it's going to be real interesting to see if ISUr or USD gets it. USD has an extra win. ISUr's OOC SOS is about the same as USD. ISUr will have also lost their last 3. However, ISUr beat USD in October by 16. The one extra win can be attributed to playing BGSU instead of NAU - and I know it sounds weird to say that an FBS hurt the SOS over an all FCS SOS, but in this case it may have.

It hink USD gets the nod simply because they'll have 7 wins and were highly rated at one point, but USD won't really have beaten anyone of value. They will have 7 wins and 6 of them will be teams that don't offer scholarships and/or finished below .500 on the season.



Meanwhile UNI has Missouri State and Indiana State left on the schedule. There is about a .000005% chance UNI loses on of those. UNI will finish 7-4 with wins over SDSU, USD, and YSU. One conference loss was to WIU and they led that with 7 seconds left. One OOC loss was a top 25 FBS team and another was to a top 10-15 SUU team on the road on a last minute field goal.

Anyone who doesn't put UNI in at 7-4 is high, and not the good kind. UNI will host a first round game, win that and then get sent to Fargo/UCA

[grizband]

Minor point, but Delaware is 6-3, not 6-2.
Thanks for pointing that out; it's been corrected in the original post.

[grizband]

Something I posted on egriz, adjusted to include tie-breaker scenarios:

Given the remaining Big Sky games, here's my assessment on how the conference race plays out.

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall
SUU . . .. . 7-1 . . . . . . 9-2 . . . beating UC-D and NAU
WSU . . . . 7-1 . . . . . . 9-2 . . . . beating PSU and ISU
EWU . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 7-4 . .. . beating UND and PSU
UM . . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 8-3 . .. . beating UNC and MSU
NAU . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 7-4 . .. . beating MSU and losing to SUU
Sac . .. . . 5-3 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . beating CP and losing to UC-D
MSU . . . . 4-4 . . . . . . 4-7 . . . losing to NAU and UM

EWU should beat North Dakota next week, even without Gubrud (suspended).
Griz beating Northern Colorado and Montana State assumes Gresch Jensen plays both games. Without him at QB, these games (especially MSU) become more difficult.

Southern Utah beat Weber State 32-16, so under this scenario they win the conference auto-bid. If this plays out exactly, Southern Utah Weber State and Montana probably each make the playoffs, with Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington squarely on the bubble.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm no MVFC expert but I think they get 5 in, with the 5th one being South Dakota

[Coyote Fan]

As a Yote fan I am as down as many on the team right now but do keep in mind that they have been excellent on their home field this year and that is where they get SDSU in a rivalry game where the crowd and the home team will be extra motivated. Their two bad performances have come away from home. I wouldn't quite just assume a SDSU win in Vermillion just yet. The Jacks have proven to be just as bad as USD has been when looking at both teams losses. The Coyotes can easily make the claim that they have been as good at home as any team in the conference so far.

[OhioHen]

UNA (it depends)



The University of North Alabama (UNA) is not FCS. :D

[ST_Lawson]

The University of North Alabama (UNA) is not FCS. :D

https://i.imgur.com/WRaSz.gif