Kennesaw and Monmouth

[Reign of Terrier]

The Big South has two teams sitting at 8-1 right now. Now, I recognize that the two teams haven't played a strong schedule, but at this point, I think the Big South has a case for an at large bid by virtue of other teams in other conferences not looking as impressive (does a 7-4 Austin Peay team get in over a 9-2 Monmouth/Kennesaw?) .

My question is, and I'm keeping it broad on purpose, under what circumstances does the Big South get an at large this year?

My personal theory is that if 1) Monmouth wins out, going 10-1 and 2) Kennesaw beats Charleston Southern next week (a tall order) and 3) if Samford wins out and finishes 8-3 and 4) Montana state wins out to finish 6-5(?), I think Kennesaw has a strong case for an at large berth.

On a side note: I haven't seen too many KSU fans or Monmouth fans on here.

[TheKingpin28]

The Big South has two teams sitting at 8-1 right now. Now, I recognize that the two teams haven't played a strong schedule, but at this point, I think the Big South has a case for an at large bid by virtue of other teams in other conferences not looking as impressive (does a 7-4 Austin Peay team get in over a 9-2 Monmouth/Kennesaw?) .

My question is, and I'm keeping it broad on purpose, under what circumstances does the Big South get an at large this year?

My personal theory is that if 1) Monmouth wins out, going 10-1 and 2) Kennesaw beats Charleston Southern next week (a tall order) and 3) if Samford wins out and finishes 8-3 and 4) Montana state wins out to finish 6-5(?), I think Kennesaw has a strong case for an at large berth.

On a side note: I haven't seen too many KSU fans or Monmouth fans on here.

Big Sky: 3-4
- Some combination of: SUU, NAU, UM, and WSU
Big South: ?
CAA: 4-5
-Some combination of: JMU, Elon, UD, UNH, and SB
MVFC: 5-6
-Some combination of: NDSU, SDSU, USeD, UNI, WIU, and ISUr
NEC: 1
OVC: 2-3
-Some combination of: JSU, AP, and EIU
Patriot: 1
Pioneer: 1
SoCon: 3-4
-Some combination of: Wofford, Furman, Samford, and WCU
Southland: 3-4
-Some combination of: UCA, SHSU, Nicholls St, McNeese

Now, I am not the best with math, but that said, if I add them up, I come up 23-27 teams NOT including the Big South. Even if we eliminate 1 team, the BS still, IMO, only gets 1 bid and it will come down to Monmouth OR KSU. This is not including NCAT if they were to lose a game, since if they were, and they do not get the MEAC Celebration Bowl invite, I am willing to bet they will steal a spot in the playoffs, hindering a chance for another conference to get an extra bid. So in order for both to get in, there would have to be some serious chaos ensuing over the last 2 weeks, but the motto is: AGS.

[PaladinFan]

Monmouth and KSU are good teams, but have played really weak schedules. I don't see both getting a bid on that basis alone.

[KPSUL]

My question is, and I'm keeping it broad on purpose, under what circumstances does the Big South get an at large this year?



If the Yellowstone Supervolcano erupts ?

[smallcollegefbfan]

The Big South has two teams sitting at 8-1 right now. Now, I recognize that the two teams haven't played a strong schedule, but at this point, I think the Big South has a case for an at large bid by virtue of other teams in other conferences not looking as impressive (does a 7-4 Austin Peay team get in over a 9-2 Monmouth/Kennesaw?) .

My question is, and I'm keeping it broad on purpose, under what circumstances does the Big South get an at large this year?

My personal theory is that if 1) Monmouth wins out, going 10-1 and 2) Kennesaw beats Charleston Southern next week (a tall order) and 3) if Samford wins out and finishes 8-3 and 4) Montana state wins out to finish 6-5(?), I think Kennesaw has a strong case for an at large berth.

On a side note: I haven't seen too many KSU fans or Monmouth fans on here.

I would take a 7-4 or 6-5 MVFC team right now over a 9-2 Big South. I think they get the auto bid and that will be it unless there aren't any 7-4 teams in the CAA or MVFC with a good resume. For example, I know the record isn't the best but UNI is a top 15-18 caliber team. I would wager posting rights that if they played the Big South champ they win by 10 or more points.

Schedules in the Big South are way too weak to argue they deserve more than one right now.

[Cocky]

The Big South has two teams sitting at 8-1 right now. Now, I recognize that the two teams haven't played a strong schedule, but at this point, I think the Big South has a case for an at large bid by virtue of other teams in other conferences not looking as impressive (does a 7-4 Austin Peay team get in over a 9-2 Monmouth/Kennesaw?) .

My question is, and I'm keeping it broad on purpose, under what circumstances does the Big South get an at large this year?

My personal theory is that if 1) Monmouth wins out, going 10-1 and 2) Kennesaw beats Charleston Southern next week (a tall order) and 3) if Samford wins out and finishes 8-3 and 4) Montana state wins out to finish 6-5(?), I think Kennesaw has a strong case for an at large berth.

On a side note: I haven't seen too many KSU fans or Monmouth fans on here.

8-4 AP would have one FCS loss to a current top 5 team. AP has twelve games.

[Reign of Terrier]

Big Sky: 3-4
- Some combination of: SUU, NAU, UM, and WSU
Big South: ?
CAA: 4-5
-Some combination of: JMU, Elon, UD, UNH, and SB
MVFC: 5-6
-Some combination of: NDSU, SDSU, USeD, UNI, WIU, and ISUr
NEC: 1
OVC: 2-3
-Some combination of: JSU, AP, and EIU
Patriot: 1
Pioneer: 1
SoCon: 3-4
-Some combination of: Wofford, Furman, Samford, and WCU
Southland: 3-4
-Some combination of: UCA, SHSU, Nicholls St, McNeese

Now, I am not the best with math, but that said, if I add them up, I come up 23-27 teams NOT including the Big South. Even if we eliminate 1 team, the BS still, IMO, only gets 1 bid and it will come down to Monmouth OR KSU. This is not including NCAT if they were to lose a game, since if they were, and they do not get the MEAC Celebration Bowl invite, I am willing to bet they will steal a spot in the playoffs, hindering a chance for another conference to get an extra bid. So in order for both to get in, there would have to be some serious chaos ensuing over the last 2 weeks, but the motto is: AGS.

This is helpful and invites a couple questions:

Is the OVC so much better than the Big South that a 7-4 EIU or APU gets in over a 9-2 Kennesaw/Monmouth? Outside of Jacksonville state, what's the case for the OVC? The Big South may be so-so from an overall record standpoint as there's only 6 teams, but they fill that void with quality OOC games (or at least not worse than the OVC).

For example:
PC played the Citadel and Wofford (and sucked);
Gardner Webb played NC A&T, NCCU, Wofford, and Western Carolina;
Charleston Southern played Elon, two FBS teams and two FCS OOC that they whalloped (they weren't good admittedly)

So I definitely see your point with the limited slots, but I don't think the Big South is that much worse than the OVC.

Let's assume that the CAA and MVFC get four in for sure (which I think is likely), while the Big Sky, Southern and Southland for sure get 3. With outbids, that's 22 of 24 slots filled. In that case the committed would have to pick between:
9-2 Kennesaw/Monmouth (with 8 or 9 d1 wins)
two 7-4 or 8/3 MVFC teams (with 7/8 d1 wins)
a likely 7-4 Big Sky team (probably without 7 D1 wins)
a 7-4 Furman/Samford (with 6 or 7 D1 wins)
a 7-4 EIU/APU (with 7 D1 wins?)
a 7-4/8-3 Southland team (with 7/8 D1 wins)

Has a conference ever gotten 6 teams in? I know five is possible and has happened before but I think the optics of that may keep one MVFC team out. Who do you pick in that situation?

[Cocky]

Answer for the OVC, No.

[WestCoastAggie]

I'd pencil in Kennesaw State as one of the last 4 in at the moment.

[aceinthehole]

I think there is a much stronger case AGAINST an at-large for the Big South runner-up. Obviously, final selections will depend what other “power conference” teams are eligible based on the results of the next 2 weeks, but let’s just look at the resume of each Big South candidate if they do not win the AQ.

Monmouth (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
Argument for: They basically won the Patriot League (4-0), despite not being a league member. Nine (9) FCS wins is impressive, and the offense is averaging 35+ points per game. Potential win vs. 1 playoff team (Lehigh – if they win the Patriot AQ)


Argument against: Zero (0) wins vs. Playoff teams, non-conference schedule includes 5 wins vs. unranked PL and MEAC teams. Two (2) losses are vs. the strongest teams on the schedule (Albany and Kennesaw State). Potential that all 9 wins are vs. FCS teams with non-winning records.

OR

Kennesaw State (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
Argument for: Winning 9 straight games is impressive, and the defense is averaging about 15 points per game. Road win at Montana State (Big Sky) and 1-score loss at Samford (SoCon).


Argument against: Zero (0) wins vs. Playoff teams, and just 8 wins vs. FCS opponents. Two (2) losses are vs. the strongest teams on the schedule (Samford and Monmouth). Potential that all 8 FCS wins are vs. teams with non-winning records.

[RootinFerDukes]

There is no circumstance where the big south or ovc get an at large.

[Cocky]

There is no circumstance where the big south or ovc get an at large.

If AP wins out with only one FCS loss, do not be surprised if their name is called. The rags to riches story will only help their cause.

It is good to see a school put forth the effort AP has to build a program be rewarded.

[BisonTru]

If they both win next week, I think both are in.

[Reign of Terrier]

If they both win next week, I think both are in.
I'm not sure. We'll have a better idea next week. I posted this in another thread but here it is again:

Right now I'd say there are 3-4 conferences that will only get their AQ in: Pioneer, Patriot, NEC and maybe Big South

So that's four in, regardless of conference.

I'd also say that 9 teams are locks right now, in no particular order:
JMU
Elon
NDSU
SD
SDSU
Jacksonville State
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston

I'd say there are five teams who are in a "win and in" situation where they just need one more W:
Southern Utah
Weber State
Stony Brook
Western Carolina
Nichols State

So, that brings us 18 spots *likely* filled.

Here comes the hard part. We have 6 slots left and with about 13 teams (max) with a reasonable case to fill them. Bolded teams are almost certainly out due to not having 7 D1 wins if they lose.

Illinois State
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa
McNeese
Furman
Samford
Northern Arizona
Montana
New Hampshire
Delaware
loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth
NCCU/NC A&T (IMO 11-1 NC A&T is a lock)
winner of Austin Peay/Eastern Illinois

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Here comes the hard part. We have 6 slots left and with about 13 teams (max) with a reasonable case to fill them. Bolded teams are almost certainly out due to not having 7 D1 wins if they lose.

I think McNeese and Nicholls both need to win out and hope the playoff field takes a third team from the Southland. UCA and SHSU are locks, but when has the Committee ever taken four SLC teams? I don't think it's ever happened. Three has been rare, too, I think, if it's happened at all.

[grizband]

I'm not sure. We'll have a better idea next week. I posted this in another thread but here it is again:

Right now I'd say there are 3-4 conferences that will only get their AQ in: Pioneer, Patriot, NEC and maybe Big South

So that's four in, regardless of conference.

I'd also say that 9 teams are locks right now, in no particular order:
JMU
Elon
NDSU
SD
SDSU
Jacksonville State
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston

I'd say there are five teams who are in a "win and in" situation where they just need one more W:
Southern Utah
Weber State
Stony Brook
Western Carolina
Nichols State

So, that brings us 18 spots *likely* filled.

Here comes the hard part. We have 6 slots left and with about 13 teams (max) with a reasonable case to fill them. Bolded teams are almost certainly out due to not having 7 D1 wins if they lose.

Illinois State
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa
McNeese
Furman
Samford
Northern Arizona
Montana
New Hampshire
Delaware
loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth
NCCU/NC A&T (IMO 11-1 NC A&T is a lock)
winner of Austin Peay/Eastern Illinois

Montana only needs one win in their final two games to reach 7 Division 1 wins.

[aceinthehole]

There is no circumstance where the big south or ovc get an at large.

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

[grizband]

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State
I wouldn't call EWU a virtual lock for the playoffs. They are 5-4, and need to win both remaining games to reach the mythical 7 D1 wins (no longer actually a requirement). Luckily for Eagles fans, their final two games come against Big Sky bottom feeders North Dakota and Portland State; unfortunately, they will be without their starting QB against UND.

Otherwise, great research here! I'll add this into my updated at large eligibility thread, if you don't mind.

[RootinFerDukes]

The 7 D1 wins threshold still exists for any school outside of the mvfc. No one has made the field with six wins from any other conference.

[Cocky]

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

How would Nicholls not be a lock if several of those are locks? Should end with one FCS loss, SHSU.

[RootinFerDukes]

How would Nicholls not be a lock if several of those are locks? Should end with one FCS loss, SHSU.

Strength of Schedule. 3 SLC teams are a stretch. 4 is just pathetic.

McNeese - Avoids 2nd place SHSU, loses to their top two SLC teams UCA and Nicholls. Also has a D2 win, so really only at 6 D1 wins at the moment.
Nicholls - Better chance then McNeese due to the head to head win, but lost to their top SLC team SHSU and missed UCA.

Neither has any marquee wins justifying of an at-large berth. The national field is still pretty strong too.

Big Sky - two 7+ win teams
Big South - two 7+ win teams
CAA - three 7+ win teams
MEAC (potential at-large) - two 7+ win teams
MVFC - three 7+ win teams
NEC - one 7+ win team
OVC - one 7+ win team
Pioneer - one 7+ win team
Socon - two 7+ win teams
SLC - two other 7+ win teams excluding the two in discussion

[wcugrad95]

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

I like that you have 4 SOCON teams on here, but Furman and Samford still have to play one another. If Furman is a lock, does that mean Samford becomes a lock with a win over the Paladins (making Furman 7-4) and they both are in? And if WCU wins this weekend would that mean the SOCON gets all 4 of their ranked teams in? I'd argue they should - with four teams with 6-2 or better conference records and everybody with at least 7 FCS wins, and each team with a ranking beside their names.

I actually think that is what you are saying with all 4 teams listed, but just wanted to make sure.

[kalm]

I like that you have 4 SOCON teams on here, but Furman and Samford still have to play one another. If Furman is a lock, does that mean Samford becomes a lock with a win over the Paladins (making Furman 7-4) and they both are in? And if WCU wins this weekend would that mean the SOCON gets all 4 of their ranked teams in? I'd argue they should - with four teams with 6-2 or better conference records and everybody with at least 7 FCS wins, and each team with a ranking beside their names.

I actually think that is what you are saying with all 4 teams listed, but just wanted to make sure.

A 6-2 conference record can also mean the bottom half of the conference is weak. See the SLC.

[kalm]

I wouldn't call EWU a virtual lock for the playoffs. They are 5-4, and need to win both remaining games to reach the mythical 7 D1 wins (no longer actually a requirement). Luckily for Eagles fans, their final two games come against Big Sky bottom feeders North Dakota and Portland State; unfortunately, they will be without their starting QB against UND.

Otherwise, great research here! I'll add this into my updated at large eligibility thread, if you don't mind.

EWU is by no means a lock at 7-4. No bad losses but no high quality wins either. I'm wondering if the UM and Sac winning out helps or hurts us? That would raise our win profile but one of them or both might still have a better win against SUU and NAU and Montana the better record despite the head to head loss and weaker schedule.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman is not a lock. At 8 wins, they are a lock, but the strength of the field this year casts doubt on a playoff bid for a 7-4 Furman.

[KPSUL]

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

The basic argument that there will be too many teams from the stronger and larger conferences at 7 or more wins for a 2nd Big South team
to make it is probably valid; however, the list of teams you're calling "virtual locks" is way too long. All of the teams on that list that currently do not have 8 or more wins are not virtual locks. I'd agree that the MVFC is a lock to have 4 teams (and probably more), but after NDSU the next 3 are still a big question mark. In the CAA, Delaware and UNH are in exactly the same situation 6-3 and two conference games left. In fact, UNH may have a slight opportunity advantage with a game against Elon, a team currently with no FCS loses and ranked in the top 10 of every poll. And while Delaware is ranked on the AGS, UNH is ranked significantly higher on Stats and Coaches which, like it or not, will have more impact on playoff selection. I think 3, not 4, Big Sky teams will likely make the playoffs; but which 3 is guess work at this juncture - no Big Sky team is currently a "virtual lock"

[Sammy94]

Strength of Schedule. 3 SLC teams are a stretch. 4 is just pathetic.

McNeese - Avoids 2nd place SHSU, loses to their top two SLC teams UCA and Nicholls. Also has a D2 win, so really only at 6 D1 wins at the moment.
Nicholls - Better chance then McNeese due to the head to head win, but lost to their top SLC team SHSU and missed UCA.

Neither has any marquee wins justifying of an at-large berth. The national field is still pretty strong too.

Big Sky - two 7+ win teams
Big South - two 7+ win teams
CAA - three 7+ win teams
MEAC (potential at-large) - two 7+ win teams
MVFC - three 7+ win teams
NEC - one 7+ win team
OVC - one 7+ win team
Pioneer - one 7+ win team
Socon - two 7+ win teams
SLC - two other 7+ win teams excluding the two in discussion

Sam got in with 6 D1 wins in 2015. Went on to the semis.

[UpstateBison]

Illinois State is not a lock for the playoffs as they are @SDSU and have NDSU at home in the final game. Western Illinois is FAR more likely to have 8 wins as they have Indiana State at home and @Southern Illinois. SIU lost their starting QB for the season and lost to Missouri State this past Saturday at home.

[aceinthehole]

The basic argument that there will be too many teams from the stronger and larger conferences at 7 or more wins for a 2nd Big South team to make it is probably valid; however, the list of teams you're calling "virtual locks" is way too long. All of the teams on that list that currently do not have 8 or more wins are not virtual locks. I'd agree that the MVFC is a lock to have 4 teams (and probably more), but after NDSU the next 3 are still a big question mark. In the CAA, Delaware and UNH are in exactly the same situation 6-3 and two conference games left. In fact, UNH may have a slight opportunity advantage with a game against Elon, a team currently with no FCS loses and ranked in the top 10 of every poll. And while Delaware is ranked on the AGS, UNH is ranked significantly higher on Stats and Coaches which, like it or not, will have more impact on playoff selection. I think 3, not 4, Big Sky teams will likely make the playoffs; but which 3 is guess work at this juncture - no Big Sky team is currently a "virtual lock"

Yes, your are correct - that was my main point.

I probably should have classified these 16 teams as "very likely" or "most probably" to be selected - "virtual lock" was too strong of a characterization for some of these teams. However, I'm very confident that even in a worst case scenario, 12 of those 16 teams I listed will make the playoffs.

As many of you pointed out, some teams like EWU, Delaware, are in very good position based on their remaining games. However, the other group of 9 teams are in the next best position to move their way into the field. Again, this is only a projection based on games played and games remaining.

I think the bottom line is the Big South, OVC, Patriot, Pioneer, and NEC will not get an at-large this year. So to respond to the original post in this thread, Monmouth and Kennesaw are on the outside looking in unless they win the AQ.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

A lot of at-large teams should probably become big Albany fans the last two weeks of the season - they can both be a big part of ruining both Delaware's and New Hampshire's shot at an at-large bid if they win out.

I don't think Delaware is a virtual lock for the playoffs at all.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I don't see why a 7-4 Colgate team shouldn't be thrown in the mix here if we're including 3rd/4th placed SLC teams. Understand that Sag isn't a perfect rating system but McNeese, Elon, New Hampshire and Colgate are all around the same area in the table (151-160). And by the way, Kennesaw State (141) has them all beat.

Personally I don't think a 7-4 Colgate team should get in and I feel like a 9-2 Monmouth team should get in ahead of them.

Of the Big South scenarios:

Monmouth wins out --> I think two get in, Monmouth AQ, KSU at-large
KSU wins out --> I think only KSU makes it
Chuck South wins out + Monmouth loses to KSU --> I think only Chuck South makes it

[CSU_Buc_81]

I don't see why a 7-4 Colgate team shouldn't be thrown in the mix here if we're including 3rd/4th placed SLC teams. Understand that Sag isn't a perfect rating system but McNeese, Elon, New Hampshire and Colgate are all around the same area in the table (151-160). And by the way, Kennesaw State (141) has them all beat.

Personally I don't think a 7-4 Colgate team should get in and I feel like a 9-2 Monmouth team should get in ahead of them.

Of the Big South scenarios:

Monmouth wins out --> I think two get in, Monmouth AQ, KSU at-large
KSU wins out --> I think only KSU makes it
Chuck South wins out + Monmouth loses to KSU --> I think only Chuck South makes it

If Charleston Southern wins out and Monmouth lsoes to KSU, that would leave a 3 way tie for first in the conference with three teams at 4-1 in the conference. Who would get the at large bid in this scenario?

[Corn_3024]

I think we (Kennesaw) have a shot if we win one of the last two. Obviously no guarantee due to SOS, but if our only losses were to ranked FCS teams I think we have shot.

More important thing for us is trying to wrap up conference play strong. Playing a defense we've struggled to move the ball against in our short career this coming week. Should be fun.

[RootinFerDukes]

Sam got in with 6 D1 wins in 2015. Went on to the semis.

Who’d they beat? How weak was the field?

[Reign of Terrier]

If Charleston Southern wins out and Monmouth lsoes to KSU, that would leave a 3 way tie for first in the conference with three teams at 4-1 in the conference. Who would get the at large bid in this scenario?

unfortunately for the Big South...no at large in that scenario.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If Charleston Southern wins out and Monmouth lsoes to KSU, that would leave a 3 way tie for first in the conference with three teams at 4-1 in the conference. Who would get the at large bid in this scenario?

In years past, somewhat controversially, it came down to something strange like road win margin. I know this because some team, I think it was Coastal, ran up the score on their final day to pump up that number so they'd win the tiebreaker.

I found this, and I think it's still the Big South tiebreaker:

http://www.aseaofred.com/big-south-football-tiebreaker/

So this is how I think it would play out:

Monmouth would drop out on road conference wins (CSU, KSU 2-0; Monmouth would be 1-1)

Then it comes down to their Sag conference formula

Which I believe CSU wins handily

[aceinthehole]

This is pretty much spot on. Basically, there is no way for an at-large team to come out of the Big South (or OVC, NEC, Patriot, Pioneer) this year.

The following 16 teams (from 5 conferences) are virtual locks for the playoffs as of today:

1. Southern Utah (Big Sky)
2. Weber State (Big Sky)
3. Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
4. Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
5. James Madison (CAA)
6. Elon (CAA)
7. Stony Brook (CAA)
8. Delaware (CAA)
9. North Dakota State (MVFC)
10. Illinois State (MVFC)
11. South Dakota (MVFC)
12. South Dakota State (MVFC)
13. Wofford (SoCon)
14. Furman (SoCon)
15. Central Arkansas (Southland)
16. Sam Houston State (Southland)

Since 5 of these teams will earn their respective conference AQ, that leave 11 of the 12 at-large spots filled.

The final at-large spot (and any replacements from the teams above) will come from the following teams:
1. Montana (Big Sky)
2. New Hampshire (CAA)
3. Richmond (CAA)
4. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
5. Western Illinois (MVFC)
6. Western Carolina (SoCon)
7. Samford (SoCon)
8. Nichols (Southland)
9. McNeese (Southland)

That leaves 5 conferences with the auto qualifiers only.

Big South: Monmouth or Kennesaw State
Patriot: Lehigh or Colgate
Pioneer: San Diego
NEC: CCSU or Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville State

CCSU clinches the NEC AQ and Lehigh clinches with the expected win next week. Other than that, not many changes from team that I posted last week.

EWU and Illinois State move from 16 "virtual locks" down to at-large pool.

But Montana and New Hampshire move up to "virtual locks" with wins expected in their final week.

Still predict only the Monmouth/Kennesaw State winner will make the playoffs.

[Corn_3024]

CCSU clinches the NEC AQ and Lehigh clinches with the expected win next week. Other than that, not many changes from team that I posted last week.

EWU and Illinois State move from 16 "virtual locks" down to at-large pool.

But Montana and New Hampshire move up to "virtual locks" with wins expected in their final week.

Still predict only the Monmouth/Kennesaw State winner will make the playoffs.

Kennesaw and Monmouth both did what they had to do this week. It sounds like next week will be for the BSC and to see who the only representative is in the playoffs.

[tomq04]

I think EWU and illinoise state are on the outside looking in compared some some of the 9-2 10-1 teams