Selection Committee's first Top 10 Poll

[BisonTru]

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St
4. Central Arkansas
5. South Dakota
6. Sam Houston St
7. Elon
8. Wofford
9. Northern Arizona
10. South Dakota St

[BisonFan02]

End the first half already.....

[BisonFan02]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd targeting....this will get reviewed.....more delay. xlolx

[Laker]

This last minute has been going so slow that I'm waiting for a pitching change to occur.

[BisonTru]

https://twitter.com/NCAA_FCS/status/926278076023046144

[Serpentor]

ESPN sure chose a great game to announce the FCS rankings with...

[ST_Lawson]

ESPN sure chose a great game to announce the FCS rankings with...

They're probably doing this so they actually have people watching it. Otherwise they'd get maybe 20 viewers.

[TheKingpin28]

I want the list!

[Cocky]

They're probably doing this so they actually have people watching it. Otherwise they'd get maybe 20 viewers.

I hope he was kidding

[No_Skill]

Cool we get a recap of the FBS rankings first!

[Bison56]

Who cares about the FBS joke of a playoff?

[Serpentor]

I hope he was kidding

When you end a statement in ellipses, sarcasm is normally implied.

[Redbird007]

Papa Johns is the new MVFC pizza!

[Serpentor]

Who cares about the FBS joke of a playoff?

Now now, their four-team playoff proves the FBS takes their national championship seriously.

[Cocky]

When you end a statement in ellipses, sarcasm is normally implied.
Im ignorant to those smiley faces and other symbols, my bad.

[Bison56]

Papa Johns is the new MVFC pizza!

Shut your face!

[ST_Lawson]

I hope he was kidding

I'm sure he was kidding. My point though was that this is why ESPN is doing this with this game. Crappiest game of the week that's going to get the fewest viewers, so they stick this at halftime so they at least get a few eyeballs during the 2nd quarter.

[TheKingpin28]

Papa Johns is the new MVFC pizza!

You are officially excommunicated from the MVFC.

[BisonFan02]

.................................................. .................................................. ...

[Redbird007]

Shut your face!

can't..too busy eating some nasty Papa Johns

[Bison56]

**** ESPN

[Serpentor]

Papa Johns is the new MVFC pizza!

Need to make up that lost NFL income it seems.

[Bison56]

can't..too busy eating some nasty Papa Johns

Is there any other kind of Papa Jihns?

[BisonFan02]

1 - JMU
2 - NDSU
3 - JSU
4 - UCA
5 - USD
6 - SHSU
7 - Elon
8 - Wofford
9 - NAU
10 - SDSU

[Cocky]

That was impressive

[Professor Chaos]

I'm pleasantly surprised. Very reasonable top 10.

[cx500d]

no arguments from me on the list.

[Laker]

James Madison
NDSU
Jack ST
Central Arkansas
USD
Sam Houston
Elon
Wofford
Northern Arizona
SDSU

[Cocky]

N AZ
SDSU

[BisonTru]

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY/status/926282877020655616

[Bison56]

It was up long enough for me to get to number 8.

[Serpentor]

8.Wofford
9.Northern Arizona
10.South Dakota State

[TheKingpin28]

Wow they actually used some commonsense in this poll.

[Schism55]

can't..too busy eating some nasty Papa Johns
I had their philly cheesesteak pizza on monday, it was pretty freaking good.
I did have 7-8 Atomic Pumpkin ales and a few bowls of Blue Dream beforehand so my judgement may have been less than great xdrunkyx

[ST_Lawson]

https://i.imgur.com/qV0oqR5.png?1

[Professor Chaos]

1 - JMU
2 - NDSU
3 - JSU
4 - UCA
5 - USD
6 - SHSU
7 - Wofford.....

and its off the screen
You missed Elon at 7
8 - Wofford
9 - NAU
10 - SDSU

[JSUSoutherner]

Committee interview currently on the FCS Facebook page.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Honestly it looked really good to me.

[TheKingpin28]

https://i.imgur.com/qV0oqR5.png?1







1
James Madison Dukes
1967
71
1


2
North Dakota State Bison
1903
8
2


3
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1757

3


4
Central Arkansas Bears
1734

4


5
South Dakota Coyotes
1638

5


6
Sam Houston State Bearkats
1511

6


7
Elon Phoenix
1510

7


8
Wofford Terriers
1379

9


9
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1285

15


10
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
1221

14










This was ours. I feel like they looked at ours, and then switched up 9 and 10 to make it not look like plagerism since we all know how the NCAA feels about that...

[Professor Chaos]

That is dead balls on the current AGS Top 10 other than AGS has SDSU at #9 and NAU at #10.

[Serpentor]

Okay, enough of this FCS crap, back to some Troy and Idaho championship football!

[Bison56]

JSU is too high, should be below UCA and USD. They haven't beat anyone, as usual.

[wcugrad95]

The best news??? I can now turn this game off.

[cx500d]

Jay Walker said Idaho's Kibbe dome is "not quite like the Fargodome"....

[Redbird007]

I had their philly cheesesteak pizza on monday, it was pretty freaking good.
I did have 7-8 Atomic Pumpkin ales and a few bowls of Blue Dream beforehand so my judgement may have been less than great xdrunkyx

I'd rather have smiley's beer

[katss07]

No real complaints! Im surprised (in a GOOD way)! The committee seems to be taking their job seriously, and decided to make the first poll actually matter this year. Top 5, no real issues, SHSU and Elon could have been flipped, but I'm happy the Kats are 6. Aside from NAU, this is a reasonable poll.

[cx500d]

Bull****, Villanova should be in the top 10....

[TheKingpin28]

No real complaints! Im surprised (in a GOOD way)! The committee seems to be taking their job seriously, and decided to make the first poll actually matter this year. Top 5, no real issues, SHSU and Elon could have been flipped, but I'm happy the Kats are 6. Aside from NAU, this is a reasonable poll.

Please, outside of SUU, who would you replace NAU with?

[FurmanWins!!]

Yeah not surprised to see NAU, besides committee had to get a Big Sky in there

[Redbird007]

Very reasonable first ranking

[Bison56]

Jay Walker said Idaho's Kibbe dome is "not quite like the Fargodome"....

Has he mentioned the FCS National Championship game at The Celebration Bowl?

[JSUSoutherner]

JSU is too high, should be below UCA and USD. They haven't beat anyone, as usual.

Probably.

Oh well.

[FargoBison]

No NC A&T...glad the committee at least puts in more effort then the coaches poll voters.

Also not shocked at all about NAU, the committee was going to put a Big Sky team in and if they win out they will get a seed.

[Gangtackle11]

Bull****, Villanova should be in the top 10....

Its only the 1st try.....next time
xsmiley_wixxpeacex

[BisonTru]

https://twitter.com/NCAA_FCS/status/926284614993432577

[katss07]

I think SUU needed to be 10 and SDSU needed to be 9. No real issue with NAU, but they are the second best team in the Big Sky. SUU is better. If NAU wins out though, I wouldn't be shocked if the got the 8 seed.

[Professor Chaos]

So in his "interview" the committee chair said they don't consider Ivy League schools but he did say they monitor the MEAC/SWAC schools (although he did say their conference champions play in the Celebration Bowl) so it appears that NC A&T is eligible for it but is not in their top 10.

[caribbeanhen]

Now now, their four-team playoff proves the FBS takes their national championship seriously.

Realistically there's only 4 good team in FCS right now

[APaladindad]

Here is a link to the selection committee interview on facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/ncaafcsfootball

[WestCoastAggie]

So in his "interview" the committee chair said they don't consider Ivy League schools but he did say they monitor the MEAC/SWAC schools (although he did say their conference champions play in the Celebration Bowl) so it appears that NC A&T is eligible for it but is not in their top 10.

Are you all happy now?

[JSUSoutherner]

Are you all happy now?
You mad?

[Bison56]

Are you all happy now?

Are you?

- - - Updated - - -


You mad?

Going to the Celebration bowl would save them an embarrassing beat down.

[BisonFan02]

Surely, the #10 team doesn't win a play-in game to go to the #2 seed right?.......RIGHT?? xlolx

[FargoBison]

Are you all happy now?

I will be happy when the MEAC and SWAC do what they Ivy does if their lofty goal is to be in some garbage bowl game. As far as the FCS playoffs go, conferences should either be all in or all out.

[Professor Chaos]

Are you all happy now?
All in all, I'm quite pleasantly surprised by the committee's top 10. I think they learned a lesson last year and had more discussion this year prior to the first release of their top 10. The committee chair even alluded to it.

[caribbeanhen]

Wait now
no Illinois state
no western Illinois
No northern Iowa
no Youngstown State

I'm really upset

[Bison56]

Wait now
no Illinois state
no western Illinois
No northern Iowa
no Youngstown State

I'm really upset

And only 2 CAA teams!xflamemadx

[caribbeanhen]

And only 2 CAA teams!xflamemadx

deservedly

[BisonFan02]

There's alot of head to head matchups in that top 10 yet....more slot..errrrr shuffling will happen.

[BisonTru]

Why can't the committee put out their poll ahead of the final weeks games? I appreciate some transparency, but we will have two weeks worth of games between next weeks final poll and selection Sunday.

[Schism55]

Perfectly sound initial poll.
Tip o' the cap to AGS voters for essentially nailing this xbowx

[katss07]

As many SLC teams as CAA teams! Awesome for the Southland.

[UNHWildcat18]

This may be a top 10 poll but if SBU and UD win out SBU is going to get a 7/8 seed. Good game vs South Florida and only fcs loss to an 8-3 Delaware.

[TheKingpin28]

Are you all happy now?

Yes. But as was stated, are you? Will you admit that maybe, just maybe the other polls are wrong and AGS might be right?

[one_armed_man]

I can't complain too much here. While UCA has been playing very well the last two Saturdays, I hate getting my hopes up.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think SUU needed to be 10 and SDSU needed to be 9. No real issue with NAU, but they are the second best team in the Big Sky. SUU is better. If NAU wins out though, I wouldn't be shocked if the got the 8 seed.

Nice start for committee, and all sounded good. But agree with katas, SUU should probably replace NAU in this top 10, with SDSU moving to 9. Also agree with other poster .. why wouldn't they do this for 3 straight weeks ?

p.s. NAU needs to send a nice thank you to ISUr for making this top 10 - not sure any other game on their resume says top 10; we would love another crack, especially in Normal, IL.

[BisonTru]

Nice start for committee, and all sounded good. But agree with katas, SUU should probably replace NAU in this top 10, with SDSU moving to 9. Also agree with other poster .. why wouldn't they do this for 3 straight weeks ?

p.s. NAU needs to send a nice thank you to ISUr for making this top 10 - not sure any other game on their resume says top 10; we would love another crack, especially in Normal, IL.

Meh I think Southern Utah is sitting right outside of this list, but I can't say they are above NAU. Ya'll just smoked YSU that took NDSU to OT, and they beat you. Plus SUU and NAU finish the season. The winner of that game looks like a seed and the loser in the playin round at the moment.

[FCSFBFAN]

Nice start for committee, and all sounded good. But agree with katas, SUU should probably replace NAU in this top 10, with SDSU moving to 9. Also agree with other poster .. why wouldn't they do this for 3 straight weeks ?

p.s. NAU needs to send a nice thank you to ISUr for making this top 10 - not sure any other game on their resume says top 10; we would love another crack, especially in Normal, IL.

haha - A nice thank you to ISUr... NAU blasted them.. Sac State beat SUU by 4 touchdowns. Northern Colorado gave them a game last week. I've seen SUU play 4 times this year. They are a good team, but not what you may think. NAU will beat them in the season finale. Montana will give NAU a better game than SUU

[BisonTru]

What do the puters think?





Massey Comp
Massey
Sagarin
Pugh


1
James Madison
2
2
2
1


2
North Dakota St
1
1
1
2


3
Jacksonville St
5
11
9
9


4
Central Arkansas
6
10
11
8


5
South Dakota
3
3
3
4


6
Sam Houston St
10
18
14
10


7
Elon
11
15
32
3


8
Wofford
18
21
19
5


9
Northern Arizona
8
8
10
11


10
South Dakota St
4
4
4
13




Crazy how different Pugh and Sagarin are on Elon.

[MTfan4life]

What do the puters think?













Crazy how different Pugh and Sagarin are on Elon.

Sagarin and Pugh are trash year after year. Laz and Donchess are annually much better, or at least more towards common opinion. I wish those were spread around more on here than Sagarin when it comes to talking about computer ratings. I mean check out how far down the massey composite line that Sagarin is in the FBS list. It's about 64th out of 105.

[BisonTru]

Sagarin and Pugh are trash year after year. Laz and Donchess are annually much better, or at least more towards common opinion. I wish those were spread around more on here than Sagarin when it comes to talking about computer ratings. I mean check out how far down the massey composite line that Sagarin is in the FBS list. It's about 64th out of 105.

Good point, an update with Laz and Donchess.





Massey Comp
Massey
Sagarin
Pugh
Laz
DII


1
James Madison
2
2
2
1
2
2


2
North Dakota St
1
1
1
2
1
1


3
Jacksonville St
5
11
9
9
10
10


4
Central Arkansas
6
10
11
8
9
6


5
South Dakota
3
3
3
4
3
3


6
Sam Houston St
10
18
14
10
15
11


7
Elon
11
15
32
3
5
7


8
Wofford
18
21
19
5
8
26


9
Northern Arizona
8
8
10
11
11
12


10
South Dakota St
4
4
4
13
4
4

[MTfan4life]

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St
4. Central Arkansas
5. South Dakota
6. Sam Houston St
7. Elon
8. Wofford
9. Northern Arizona
10. South Dakota St

I'm late to the party on this, but I keep asking why is Jacksonville State so high? The committee has Sam Houston State at 6. Central Arkansas owns a double digit win over them and their only loss is to an FBS school. They also own a 30 point win over a team who would probably be in the rankings if the committee stretched the poll to 25. Why is that not enough to put them over Jacksonville State?

I personally had South Dakota and Elon above JSU as well, but I'm pretty sure neither team will win out in their final three weeks. JSU and UCA should easily win out, along with SHSU. One would feel safe to assume that 3, 4, and 5 will be JSU/UCA/SHSU.

[PaladinFan]

Happy with that. Furman has two FCS losses by a total four points to Elon and Wofford in the first two weeks. If the committee considers them two of the top 8 teams, then Furman’s probably lurking right behind that poll.

[WestCoastAggie]

Yes. But as was stated, are you? Will you admit that maybe, just maybe the other polls are wrong and AGS might be right?

No. That would be undercutting the achievements of the Aggies, going 8-0 for the first time since 1924.

I will say this selection poll and the AGS pool look to be representative of teams in contention of a seed.

[katss07]

NAU vs SUU at the end of the season will be a huge game. Winner could get a seed, loser plays in round one.

[POD Knows]

1 - JMU
2 - NDSU
3 - JSU
4 - UCA
5 - USD
6 - SHSU
7 - Elon
8 - Wofford
9 - NAU
10 - SDSUThat is pretty solid actually

[Bison56]

Only 9 pages? I blame the Selection Committee.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm late to the party on this, but I keep asking why is Jacksonville State so high? The committee has Sam Houston State at 6. Central Arkansas owns a double digit win over them and their only loss is to an FBS school. They also own a 30 point win over a team who would probably be in the rankings if the committee stretched the poll to 25. Why is that not enough to put them over Jacksonville State?

I personally had South Dakota and Elon above JSU as well, but I'm pretty sure neither team will win out in their final three weeks. JSU and UCA should easily win out, along with SHSU. One would feel safe to assume that 3, 4, and 5 will be JSU/UCA/SHSU.
Same story, different year. Last year I thought JSU should've been #6 bumping up JMU, SHSU, and El Cid each up one seed line. Although the AGS Poll this year and last year has had them at #3 also I wonder how much has to do with their AD Greg Seitz being on the selection committee each of the last two years?

[ElCid]

I'm late to the party on this, but I keep asking why is Jacksonville State so high? The committee has Sam Houston State at 6. Central Arkansas owns a double digit win over them and their only loss is to an FBS school. They also own a 30 point win over a team who would probably be in the rankings if the committee stretched the poll to 25. Why is that not enough to put them over Jacksonville State?
.

Yeah I noted that this past go around and had Cent Ark ahead of JSU. Other folks did as well since the point gap closed between them.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I know I said it looks pretty good, but thinking more about it. If they actually think SHSU is #6 then how can they not have UCA ahead of JSU at least. I mean no other team has a win against another top 10 team (yet).

[Mayville Bison]

No. That would be undercutting the achievements of the Aggies, going 8-0 for the first time since 1924.

I will say this selection poll and the AGS pool look to be representative of teams in contention of a seed.

I think this is definitely the case. Based off what a previous poster said about monitoring MEAC schools, that tells me the committee knows A&T has to lose at some point to make the playoffs. An undefeated A&T team might crack the top 10, but a 1-loss A&T team won't unless complete chaos ensues.

[Reign of Terrier]

Comparing Elon and Wofford:

They both have won similar style games. Wofford has a lost a game to an FCS opponent.

I'd argue Wofford has played a tougher schedule thus far playing and beating Western (6-3), Furman (6-3), Citadel (5-3) and losing to Samford (5-3), while also playing 4-4 Mercer. Looking at Elon's schedule, the only team they've beaten above .500 is Furman.

The CAA is definitely tough, especially at the top but the way it's structured, Elon will only play 2 of the other top 6 times (so 2 of 5). I think a loss to New Hampshire by Elon would be a comparable loss to Wofford's to Samford.

[kalm]

I'm late to the party on this, but I keep asking why is Jacksonville State so high? The committee has Sam Houston State at 6. Central Arkansas owns a double digit win over them and their only loss is to an FBS school. They also own a 30 point win over a team who would probably be in the rankings if the committee stretched the poll to 25. Why is that not enough to put them over Jacksonville State?

I personally had South Dakota and Elon above JSU as well, but I'm pretty sure neither team will win out in their final three weeks. JSU and UCA should easily win out, along with SHSU. One would feel safe to assume that 3, 4, and 5 will be JSU/UCA/SHSU.

Agreed. When the dust settles, Wofford will likely have another loss to South Carolina, the Valley teams all play each other in a down the stretch gauntlet, and NAU plays SUU. This poll will remain volatile and JSU, UCA, and SHSU may be the beneficiaries. What would be interesting if it were to play out is comparing them to a 2 loss Elon, Big Sky, SDSU, USD, NDSU, ISUr, Wofford, or perhaps Stony Brook.

Right now:

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. South Dakota
4. Elon
5. Central Arkansas
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. South Dakota State
9. Jacksonville State
10. Wofford

[kalm]

Comparing Elon and Wofford:

They both have won similar style games. Wofford has a lost a game to an FCS opponent.

I'd argue Wofford has played a tougher schedule thus far playing and beating Western (6-3), Furman (6-3), Citadel (5-3) and losing to Samford (5-3), while also playing 4-4 Mercer. Looking at Elon's schedule, the only team they've beaten above .500 is Furman.

The CAA is definitely tough, especially at the top but the way it's structured, Elon will only play 2 of the other top 6 times (so 2 of 5). I think a loss to New Hampshire by Elon would be a comparable loss to Wofford's to Samford.

The difference must be the teams you've beat with winning records have lower schedule strengths. That would explain why Massey has Elon at 16 and you at 46.

[Reign of Terrier]

The difference must be the teams you've beat with winning records have lower schedule strengths. That would explain why Massey has Elon at 16 and you at 46.

Yeah, well, that's horse****

[Reign of Terrier]

Agreed. When the dust settles, Wofford will likely have another loss to South Carolina, the Valley teams all play each other in a down the stretch gauntlet, and NAU plays SUU. This poll will remain volatile and JSU, UCA, and SHSU may be the beneficiaries. What would be interesting if it were to play out is comparing them to a 2 loss Elon, Big Sky, SDSU, USD, NDSU, ISUr, Wofford, or perhaps Stony Brook.

Right now:

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. South Dakota
4. Elon
5. Central Arkansas
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. South Dakota State
9. Jacksonville State
10. Wofford

I doubt wofford loses much position if we lose to USC. Last year Citadel lost to UNC pretty badly in the final week of the year and they barely dropped if at all.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Agreed. When the dust settles, Wofford will likely have another loss to South Carolina, the Valley teams all play each other in a down the stretch gauntlet, and NAU plays SUU. This poll will remain volatile and JSU, UCA, and SHSU may be the beneficiaries. What would be interesting if it were to play out is comparing them to a 2 loss Elon, Big Sky, SDSU, USD, NDSU, ISUr, Wofford, or perhaps Stony Brook.

Right now:

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. South Dakota
4. Elon
5. Central Arkansas
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. South Dakota State
9. Jacksonville State
10. Wofford

The FCS guys said as much, but I sure hope the committee looks long and hard at SOS and how JSU, UCA, and SHSU all play 3 more cup cakes the rest of way. Then look at who NDSU, USD, SDSU, ISUr, and WIU play the rest of way ... the SOS contrast could not be more stark .. completely off the charts tougher schedule for those 4 MVFC teams.

Per Massey all colleges ranking .. reminder there are only 250 D-I teams

- JSU plays #'s 255, 229, 295
- UCA plays #'s 395, 352, 284
- SHSU plays #'s 352, 284, 387

- NDSU plays #'s 81, 77, 93
- USD plays 84, 30, 81
- SDSU plays 30, 93, 77
- ISUr plays 90, 81, 30

Put whatever statistical bias adjustments you want on above ... add 10 or 20 spots to ranking of all MVFC opponents, then subtract 50 spots from the other 3's opponent rankings ... and you still have off the charts differences in SOS.

I hope they are watching this very closely.

[mamberso]

The obvious answer to the JSU, CARK, USD question with regards to rankings is reputation. JSU has been to the playoffs every year since 2013, and to the championship game in 2015. CARK and USD do not have that background. Now should it matter with regards to this year? Of course not. To me, USD should absolutely be #3. We'll see. With Northern Iowa, NDSU, and SDSU on the horizon, they can get the #2 seed if they win out. JSU and CARK are close. Massey actually has JSU with a better SoS. And that gap will only get wider in the last three weeks of the season, as CARK's schedule is atrocious the rest of the way out. I make an argument that Elon should be ahead of JSU and CARK based on their strength of schedule. If they win out, they will get a top 2 seed, in my opinion.

[Sammy94]

Agreed. When the dust settles, Wofford will likely have another loss to South Carolina, the Valley teams all play each other in a down the stretch gauntlet, and NAU plays SUU. This poll will remain volatile and JSU, UCA, and SHSU may be the beneficiaries. What would be interesting if it were to play out is comparing them to a 2 loss Elon, Big Sky, SDSU, USD, NDSU, ISUr, Wofford, or perhaps Stony Brook.

Right now:

1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. South Dakota
4. Elon
5. Central Arkansas
6. Northern Arizona
7. Southern Utah
8. South Dakota State
9. Jacksonville State
10. Wofford

Big Sky really? You had a good argument until you put that in there. Southern Utah really? Didn't they get blown out by Sac State? The Southland and Big Sky are pretty equal this season but I don't see how the Big Fluffy will have 2 teams in the top 10, unlike the SLC should.

[RootinFerDukes]

Sorry if someone posted something similar. I didn't read the whole thread.
If we're strictly looking at Massey predictions as of this week, this is how the seeding may shake out. I also considered the current #11-15 AGS ranked teams to potentially move into the top 10.

Current Committee Ranking:
1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St
4. Central Arkansas
5. South Dakota
6. Sam Houston St
7. Elon
8. Wofford
9. Northern Arizona
10. South Dakota St

1) JMU 11-0. SSF 31. 1 or 2 seed. Likely 1.
2) NDSU 11-0. SSF 9. 1 or 2 seed. Likely 2.
3) JSU 11-0. SSF 42. 3 seed is a lock.
4) UCA 10-1. SSF 49. 4 seed is a lock.
5) USD 8-3. SSF 3. Potential 8 seed. Could be unseeded.
6) SHSU 10-1. SSF 66. 5 or 6 seed. Wofford could leapfrog them on SOS argument. Likely 5 seed.
7) Elon 8-3. SSF 16. Likely unseeded. Potential 8 seed.
8) Wofford 9-2. SSF 41. 5 or 6 seed. Likely 6 seed.
9) Northern Arizona 8-3. SSF 12. Likely unseeded.
10) South Dakota State 7-4. SSF 2. Out of the top 10.

11) Southern Utah 9-2. SSF 11. Likely in at the 7 seed ahead of NAU.
12) North Carolina A&T. Likely bowl bound.
13) Illinois State 7-4. SSF 6. Not in the seed picture.
14) Stony Brook 8-3. SSF 36. Outside shot at a seed but need blowouts of teams ahead of them.
15) Eastern Washington 8-3. SSF 10. Same as Stony Brook, needs big time help to see a seed. Not likely.

[kalm]

Yeah, well, that's horse****

What's horse ****? They don't have lower schedule strengths or that we can't (for example) compare WCU's wins against Gardner Webb and Davidson with Richmond's wins against Colgate and Howard?

If it's the latter, what metrics do you use for SoS or do go more off of conference reputation and emotion?

[kalm]

Big Sky really? You had a good argument until you put that in there. Southern Utah really? Didn't they get blown out by Sac State? The Southland and Big Sky are pretty equal this season but I don't see how the Big Fluffy will have 2 teams in the top 10, unlike the SLC should.

The Big Sky won't have 2 in as NAU and SUU play each other.

You're making the same mistake as others in basing things too much off previous years and reputation. Compare resume's and SUU/NAU have the same amount of FCS losses as SHSU and Wofford, but several more quality wins than SHSU and a much better SoS than both. And no one thinks the Big Sky and Southland are remotely close to equal this year.

SUU did get blown out (with their starting QB missing the game) by an improving Sac team which, btw, has a shot at getting an at-large bid. See how both Sac and SUU did H2H against the SLC this year.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The obvious answer to the JSU, CARK, USD question with regards to rankings is reputation. JSU has been to the playoffs every year since 2013, and to the championship game in 2015. CARK and USD do not have that background. Now should it matter with regards to this year? Of course not. To me, USD should absolutely be #3. We'll see. With Iowa St, NDSU, and SDSU on the horizon, they can get the #2 seed if they win out. JSU and CARK are close. Massey actually has JSU with a better SoS. And that gap will only get wider in the last three weeks of the season, as CARK's schedule is atrocious the rest of the way out. I make an argument that Elon should be ahead of JSU and CARK based on their strength of schedule. If they win out, they will get a top 2 seed, in my opinion.
my concern is not so much that SHSU, JSU, and UCA are in top 8 .. it's how the FCS committee will view results of games these next 3 weeks. They play all cup cakes. MVFC top 4 plays all very good teams. The other conferences play schedules somewhere in the middle. if SDSU loses by 3 to NDSU, and SHSU wins by 21 against Little Sisters of the Poor III at home ... SDSU should be moved ahead of SHSU.

[phoenix3]

Happy with that. Furman has two FCS losses by a total four points to Elon and Wofford in the first two weeks. If the committee considers them two of the top 8 teams, then Furman’s probably lurking right behind that poll.
I made the statement a couple of weeks ago that Furman was one of the top two teams in the SoCon and absolutely deserved a top 15 ranking. I was castigated a bit for this statement. As an outsider who knows a little about the SoCon, I can confidently say that Furman looks to be the top power team in the SoCon and certainly deserves at least a ranking in the top 15. I fully expect Furman to win out, finishing with a 8-3 record, (barring significant injury). I expect Wofford to finish 2-1 with a record of 9-2. BUT, the record, in this case doesn't tell the whole story. I still contend Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon and will be the first in as an at large from the SoCon.

[ElCid]

I think it is fine that folks reference Massey and Sagarin (I do it myself) but everyone needs to remember that they are really just one data point. By this time in the season, they are much more accurate. However, even though many more teams are connected via game results, some teams and conferences are better connected than others.

A few years ago I laughed at how high some Ivy teams were. The problem was that they very isolated. So much weight was given to their starting rating. Some conferences are more isolated than others. This matters. It also matters which teams they played in other conferences. Play cupcakes and it gets skewed. There have only been a few "good" games between good teams from different conferences.

Now, all that said, these ratings, which may the result of being somewhat isolated, are the same ones that are used to determine SOS. Nobody get their panties in a wad, and I think everyone realizes it to a certain extent anyway, but the MVFC has benefited from this to a degree. They are no doubt very good and definitely a step ahead of the SC, CAA, and BS. But they are also befitting from initial ratings and doing well in their OOC games, but they are only a very small sample of games and they haven't necessarily played the cream of the crop OOC always...but sometimes. This is not a knock on the MVFC. It applies to all the conferences. I think it is also fair to say that NDSU has raised the overall rating/SOS via there recent runs. That helps the MVFC, but it may not translate to actual quality.

In other words it is hard to have a highly accurate SOS comparison with so few teams connected between conferences. Especially the further degree you get out. That whole transitive thing. It is somewhat useful, but always needs go be tempered with judgement. Comparing teams in the same conference is obviously much more accurate.

And all that said, that is why we are blessed in FCS to not have to simply rely on a computer too much when deciding our champ.

[PaladinFan]

I made the statement a couple of weeks ago that Furman was one of the top two teams in the SoCon and absolutely deserved a top 15 ranking. I was castigated a bit for this statement. As an outsider who knows a little about the SoCon, I can confidently say that Furman looks to be the top power team in the SoCon and certainly deserves at least a ranking in the top 15. I fully expect Furman to win out, finishing with a 8-3 record, (barring significant injury). I expect Wofford to finish 2-1 with a record of 9-2. BUT, the record, in this case doesn't tell the whole story. I still contend Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon and will be the first in as an at large from the SoCon.

Telling is that Furman's two close FCS losses came in the first two weeks of the season.

While it is simply a footnote, Furman has an entire new coaching staff on both sides of the ball to go along with completely new offensive and defensive systems. As the players and coaches have gotten more comfortable with their roles (even with things as simple as getting a play in), the team has steadily improved.

[Reign of Terrier]

What's horse ****? They don't have lower schedule strengths or that we can't (for example) compare WCU's wins against Gardner Webb and Davidson with Richmond's wins against Colgate and Howard?

If it's the latter, what metrics do you use for SoS or do go more off of conference reputation and emotion?

No, I'm saying that that's 3 degrees of separation of reality, within the margin of error, to be useless at worst and unfalsifiable at best.

I don't think Gardner Webb or PC's badness should out-weigh the other strength of the Socon schedule. Heck, it's safe to say that 6 of the 9 FCS reams Gardner Webb has played or will play will compete for a playoff spot (Elon cannot say that). Further, if we're going three degrees of separation, Wofford whalloped PC by 24, Elon nudged by Charleston Southern by 2, who only beat PC by 7.

Meanwhile, in the CAA, a league that has 12 teams, Elon has managed to squeak by 5 of the bottom 6. In a league of 9, Wofford's played only one in the bottom three. The average team in conference play Wofford has beaten. I'll admit that Wofford has been unimpressive in our wins this year, but the salient point of my last post was that at least the teams we've played have winning records.

I wouldn't be making this argument if Elon had a similar record but with wins against Stony Brook, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine and a couple bottom feeders. The median level of competition for Elon is pretty low, Wofford's is higher, easily.

[BisonFan02]

Sorry if someone posted something similar. I didn't read the whole thread.
If we're strictly looking at Massey predictions as of this week, this is how the seeding may shake out. I also considered the current #11-15 AGS ranked teams to potentially move into the top 10.

Current Committee Ranking:
1. James Madison
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St
4. Central Arkansas
5. South Dakota
6. Sam Houston St
7. Elon
8. Wofford
9. Northern Arizona
10. South Dakota St

1) JMU 11-0. SSF 31. 1 or 2 seed. Likely 1.
2) NDSU 11-0. SSF 9. 1 or 2 seed. Likely 2.
3) JSU 11-0. SSF 42. 3 seed is a lock.
4) UCA 10-1. SSF 49. 4 seed is a lock.
5) USD 8-3. SSF 3. Potential 8 seed. Could be unseeded.
6) SHSU 10-1. SSF 66. 5 or 6 seed. Wofford could leapfrog them on SOS argument. Likely 5 seed.
7) Elon 8-3. SSF 16. Likely unseeded. Potential 8 seed.
8) Wofford 9-2. SSF 41. 5 or 6 seed. Likely 6 seed.
9) Northern Arizona 8-3. SSF 12. Likely unseeded.
10) South Dakota State 7-4. SSF 2. Out of the top 10.

11) Southern Utah 9-2. SSF 11. Likely in at the 7 seed ahead of NAU.
12) North Carolina A&T. Likely bowl bound.
13) Illinois State 7-4. SSF 6. Not in the seed picture.
14) Stony Brook 8-3. SSF 36. Outside shot at a seed but need blowouts of teams ahead of them.
15) Eastern Washington 8-3. SSF 10. Same as Stony Brook, needs big time help to see a seed. Not likely.

If both NDSU and JMU finish the reg season unbeaten.....and if the committee genuinely values SOS like they said.....NDSU is the #1 seed over JMU....simple math.

[Bison56]

The obvious answer to the JSU, CARK, USD question with regards to rankings is reputation. JSU has been to the playoffs every year since 2013, and to the championship game in 2015. CARK and USD do not have that background. Now should it matter with regards to this year? Of course not. To me, USD should absolutely be #3. We'll see. With Iowa St, NDSU, and SDSU on the horizon, they can get the #2 seed if they win out. JSU and CARK are close. Massey actually has JSU with a better SoS. And that gap will only get wider in the last three weeks of the season, as CARK's schedule is atrocious the rest of the way out. I make an argument that Elon should be ahead of JSU and CARK based on their strength of schedule. If they win out, they will get a top 2 seed, in my opinion.

If who wins out?

[Reign of Terrier]

If both NDSU and JMU finish the reg season unbeaten.....and if the committee genuinely values SOS like they said.....NDSU is the #1 seed over JMU....simple math.

To me, it doesn't really matter who is #1 and who is #2. You're going to be facing teams you should be favored against until the championship game and you'll have home field advantage until then.

Arguing who gets the #1 seed over the #2 is kind of like rearranging seats on the Titanic.

[BisonFan02]

To me, it doesn't really matter who is #1 and who is #2. You're going to be facing teams you should be favored against until the championship game and you'll have home field advantage until then.

Arguing who gets the #1 seed over the #2 is kind of like rearranging seats on the Titanic.

It matters damn it! xlolx It's the principle of the thing.... :D

[BisonFan02]

If who wins out?

If Elon wins out....they would be a #2 with a win over JMU. NDSU #1

That being said....it won't happen. JMU is going to win out with games against sorry Rhody, a reeling Richmond team, and the aforementioned Elon team to finish.

[Reign of Terrier]

What's horse ****? They don't have lower schedule strengths or that we can't (for example) compare WCU's wins against Gardner Webb and Davidson with Richmond's wins against Colgate and Howard?

If it's the latter, what metrics do you use for SoS or do go more off of conference reputation and emotion?

Let me put it more succinctly (I don't feel like editing that last post); it's horse**** because it may be true that the mean average team Elon has played may be higher than the mean average team Wofford has played. It's probably in the margin of error, but I'll concede that.

I'd say, unequivocally, the *median* average team Wofford has played is *easily better* than Elon. That's relevant because both teams are winning close games, both against good teams and so-so teams, but outside of the outliers Wofford has played, on average, a better schedule. Thus, the wins are slightly more impressive.

And Furman's playing better than both.

[Bison56]

If Elon wins out....they would be a #2 with a win over JMU. NDSU #1

OK got it.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not sold an Elon getting a #2 seed in any circumstance. I think it would belong to Central Arkansas before that happens

[BisonFan02]

Not sold an Elon getting a #2 seed in any circumstance. I think it would belong to Central Arkansas before that happens

No way....I edited my post, but you would have a 1 loss CAA champion with a recent win over JMU. It won't happen (edited my prior post), but Elon would leapfrog anyone in the Southland or OVC with that resume.

[katss07]

Yeah, Elon's resume would give them an edge over UCA, JSU.

[mamberso]

Not sold an Elon getting a #2 seed in any circumstance. I think it would belong to Central Arkansas before that happens

Wow, really? If Elon wins out (including wins against New Hampshire and JMU), you don't think they will would move ahead of Central Arkansas? I agree with BisonFan02, I don't think it will happen...but they would have to be at least #2.

[kalm]

Let me put it more succinctly (I don't feel like editing that last post); it's horse**** because it may be true that the mean average team Elon has played may be higher than the mean average team Wofford has played. It's probably in the margin of error, but I'll concede that.

I'd say, unequivocally, the *median* average team Wofford has played is *easily better* than Elon. That's relevant because both teams are winning close games, both against good teams and so-so teams, but outside of the outliers Wofford has played, on average, a better schedule. Thus, the wins are slightly more impressive.

And Furman's playing better than both.

Good stuff, YT. I'll reply when I Have more time.

[Professor Chaos]

You know last year in the first 12 hours after the initial selection committee rankings release the thread was over 300 replies...

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?188124-Selection-Committee-s-Top-10-11-3-16/page31&highlight=selection+committee+rankings

We're slacking.

[RootinFerDukes]

To me, it doesn't really matter who is #1 and who is #2. You're going to be facing teams you should be favored against until the championship game and you'll have home field advantage until then.

Arguing who gets the #1 seed over the #2 is kind of like rearranging seats on the Titanic.

Any given year, there's always a "harsher" side of the bracket. Now whether that ends up being the 1 or 2 seed side varies. In a perfect world, the 1 seed has the easier path to Frisco.

Saying there's no difference between the two is just not even correct in the slightest.

[Professor Chaos]

Any given year, there's always a "harsher" side of the bracket. Now whether that ends up being the 1 or 2 seed side varies. In a perfect world, the 1 seed has the easier path to Frisco.

Saying there's no difference between the two is just not even correct in the slightest.
Agreed. Right now with the 4-5-8 seeds being UCA, USD, and Wofford and the 3-6-7 seeds being JSU, SHSU, and Elon I'd gladly take the #2 seed over the #1 seed right now.

It was the same case last year with the 4-5-8 seeds being JMU, SHSU, and SDSU whereas the 3-6-7 were JSU, The Citadel, and UND.

[RootinFerDukes]

The Elon scenario is probably not likely, as many have noted, but they'd have a SOS argument for the 2 seed. In such a scenario, it'd really show if the committee slot votes or not. How could a now 7 seed jump up to a 2 just by beating the #1 team? That's a awfully big jump to make at once... following slot voting logic which national polls do.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wow, really? If Elon wins out (including wins against New Hampshire and JMU), you don't think they will would move ahead of Central Arkansas? I agree with BisonFan02, I don't think it will happen...but they would have to be at least #2.

It's not a knock on the CAA or JMU but if you look at their schedule (they've played a pretty soft schedule by CAA standards). Obviously, a win against JMU would be noteworthy but I would side with the MVFC bandwagon who would probably advocate for someone like South Dakota.

I don't think the Southland is stronger conference than the CAA but a 10-1 UCA team against a 10-1 Elon team, both with wins against top 5 opponents, I think UCA's schedule and performance is better. It would basically come down the value judgment of whether or not an Elon team who beat JMU but went toe-to-toe with a bunch of .500 teams is more worthy than a Central Arkansas team who played a tougher schedule and won consistently and within the standard expectation, but didn't have a win as good as JMU.

And before anyone makes any off-hand comments about Wofford, I'd apply this criticism to them as well. No matter what chaos ensues over the next month or so I don't think Wofford deserves any better than a 4 seed (and we would only deserve that if utter chaos broke out in the top 5, which I don't judge likely)

[UpstateBison]

2017 Elon = 2016 UND


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[Redbird 4th & short]

Yeah, Elon's resume would give them an edge over UCA, JSU.

This discussion on who Elon can pass ... are we really ignoring all the other really good MVFC teams for some reason ?

Elon has had a real nice year, but look at their results .. their best win so far is over 6-3 Furman .. Furman's best win is at home by 7 over 4-4 Mercer. Mercer's best win is over 5-3 Citadel by 10. Citadel's best win is over 2-7 TN Chatt.

Furthermore on Elon's entire resume .. . beat 6-3 Furman by 3, beat 4-4 Villanova by 5, beat 4-4 Richmond by 3, beat 3-5 Albany by 6, beat 4-4 Charleston by 2, beat 2-6 W&M by 8, beat 2-6 Rhode Island by just 1.

Now I will agree they are winning a lot of close games against some decent teams, especially after going 2-9 a year ago. And further that CAA is deeper this year than they have been since 2010. But at some point, aren't very good teams (i.e. top 8 seed teams) EXPECTED to put away weak teams by 3-5 touchdowns ... not one impressive win like this. Elon's SOS rankes 16th per Massey ... this is why Massey ranks them just 15th .. no impressive wins demonstrating they are a dominant team worthy of a top 8 seed.

[F'N Hawks]

2017 Elon = 2016 UND


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Issues.

[JSUSoutherner]

You know last year in the first 12 hours after the initial selection committee rankings release the thread was over 300 replies...

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?188124-Selection-Committee-s-Top-10-11-3-16/page31&highlight=selection+committee+rankings

We're slacking.

We had a lot more to complain about last year.

[FurmanWins!!]

This discussion on who Elon can pass ... are we really ignoring all the other really good MVFC teams for some reason ?

Elon has had a real nice year, but look at their results .. their best win so far is over 6-3 Furman .. Furman's best win is at home by 7 over 4-4 Mercer. Mercer's best win is over 5-3 Citadel by 10. Citadel's best win is over 2-7 TN Chatt.

Furthermore on Elon's entire resume .. . beat 6-3 Furman by 3, beat 4-4 Villanova by 5, beat 4-4 Richmond by 3, beat 3-5 Albany by 6, beat 4-4 Charleston by 2, beat 2-6 W&M by 8, beat 2-6 Rhode Island by just 1.

Now I will agree they are winning a lot of close games against some decent teams, especially after going 2-9 a year ago. And further that CAA is deeper this year than they have been since 2010. But at some point, aren't very good teams (i.e. top 8 seed teams) EXPECTED to put away weak teams by 3-5 touchdowns ... not one impressive win like this. Elon's SOS rankes 16th per Massey ... this is why Massey ranks them just 15th .. no impressive wins demonstrating they are a dominant team worthy of a top 8 seed.


Actually Furman's best win is 28-6 over 6-3 WCU, who beat Samford, who beat Wofford, yada yada yada xthumbsupx

[Sammy94]

The Big Sky won't have 2 in as NAU and SUU play each other.

You're making the same mistake as others in basing things too much off previous years and reputation. Compare resume's and SUU/NAU have the same amount of FCS losses as SHSU and Wofford, but several more quality wins than SHSU and a much better SoS than both. And no one thinks the Big Sky and Southland are remotely close to equal this year.

SUU did get blown out (with their starting QB missing the game) by an improving Sac team which, btw, has a shot at getting an at-large bid. See how both Sac and SUU did H2H against the SLC this year.

haha yes but I sure hope the Big Sky comes to Bowers again in Dec. The SLC bottom feeders are horrible.

[Bisonator]

We had a lot more to complain about last year.
Yeah this was disappointing. xlolx

[Southern Bison]

If Elon wins out....they would be a #2 with a win over JMU. NDSU #1

That being said....it won't happen. JMU is going to win out with games against sorry Rhody, a reeling Richmond team, and the aforementioned Elon team to finish.If the Bison have locked up the conference title (& a top 2 seed) by the 18th, I'll take lil SB to the game in Elon and cheer the Pheonix on. We'll try to propel Elon to the #2 seed!

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[ElCid]

If Elon wins out....they would be a #2 with a win over JMU. NDSU #1

That being said....it won't happen. JMU is going to win out with games against sorry Rhody, a reeling Richmond team, and the aforementioned Elon team to finish.

Elon will not win out. They will go 1-2 to finish 8-3. Book it.

[jmufan999]

2017 Elon = 2016 UND


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this actually makes a lot of sense.

[UNHWildcat18]

Elon will not win out. They will go 1-2 to finish 8-3. Book it.

Agreed, they are going to lose vs JMU and UNH. SB wins out, UD wins out. JMU gets the 1 seed, SBU(9-2) gets the 7/8 seed. That’s my prediction, UNH UD Elon 8-3 all get in.

[RootinFerDukes]

Just out of curiosity, what makes UNH fans think they can beat Elon? It appears to be a toss up at the moment, but with the winning and winning, I kind of have to give elon the benefit of the doubt.

[Gangtackle11]

Agreed, they are going to lose vs JMU and UNH. SB wins out, UD wins out. JMU gets the 1 seed, SBU(9-2) gets the 7/8 seed. That’s my prediction, UNH UD Elon 8-3 all get in.

Interesting. Very Interesting ✌️

[TheKingpin28]

Elon will not win out. They will go 1-2 to finish 8-3. #bookit.

FYP

[cx500d]

At least they didn't give a pity pick to NC A&T

[KPSUL]

Just out of curiosity, what makes UNH fans think they can beat Elon? It appears to be a toss up at the moment, but with the winning and winning, I kind of have to give elon the benefit of the doubt.

fifty-something and eight at home since 2008? It's not just UNHWildcat that thinks that, it will be the coaching staff, all the players, the season ticket holders, dance squad, the guys in the colonial uniforms that shoot the cannon, the high school kids who work in concessions and the 34 students who wander into Wildcat stadium for a November game. I'm never been so confident of a win since the Colgate playoff game in 2015.

[POD Knows]

FYPIt only works for me, it is my gift, it is my curse.

[KPSUL]

Elon will not win out. They will go 1-2 to finish 8-3. Book it.

Prophetic and brilliant, really!xbowx

[TheKingpin28]

It only works for me, it is my gift, it is my curse.

That is why I FYPed it.

[ElonFirefighter]

If the Bison have locked up the conference title (& a top 2 seed) by the 18th, I'll take lil SB to the game in Elon and cheer the Pheonix on. We'll try to propel Elon to the #2 seed!

Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkYou can only come if we are trying to propel Elon to number 1

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[WestCoastAggie]

At least they didn't give a pity pick to NC A&T

LOL!