2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 2)

[grizband]

2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 2)

Disclaimer:
I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins; those listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (6-2) must go 1-2
Weber State (6-2) must go 2-1
Southern Utah (6-2) must go 1-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Montana State (4-4) must go 3-0
Montana (5-3) must go 2-1
UC Davis (4-4) must go 3-0
Sacramento State (4-4) must go 3-0

Idaho State (4-5) eliminated
Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (7-1) must go 1-2
*Monmouth (7-1) must go 1-3

Charleston Southern (4-4) eliminated
Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (8-0)
*Elon (7-1)
Stony Brook (6-2) must go 1-2
New Hampshire (5-3) must go 2-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-1
Maine (4-3) must go 3-0
Richmond (4-4) must go 3-0
Villanova (4-4) must go 3-0

Albany (3-5) eliminated
Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
NC Central (6-2) must go 2-1
Hampton (5-3) must go 3-0
Howard (5-3) must go 2-1
Bethune-Cookman (4-4) must go 3-0

Norfolk State 3-5 eliminated
Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-0)
*South Dakota (7-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (6-2) must go 1-2
South Dakota State (6-2) must go 1-2
Northern Iowa (4-4) must go 3-0
Western Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Southern Illinois (4-4) must go 3-0

Youngstown State (3-5) eliminated
Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (7-1) must go 1-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (5-3) must go 3-0

Sacred Heart (3-5) eliminated
Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (7-1)
Austin Peay (5-4) must go 2-1
Eastern Illinois (5-4) must go 2-0

Tennessee State (4-3) eliminated
SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0
Bucknell (4-4) must go 3-0

Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (6-2) must go 2-1
Drake (5-3) must go 3-0

Campbell (5-4) eliminated
Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
*Wofford (7-1)
Furman (6-3) must go 2-1
Western Carolina (6-3) must go 1-1
Samford (5-3) must go 3-0
The Citadel (5-3) must go 3-0
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0

ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
*Central Arkansas (7-1)
*Sam Houston State (7-1)
Nicholls (6-2) must go 1-2
SE Louisiana (5-4) must go 2-0
McNeese (6-2) must go 2-1

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

[BisonTru]

Youngstown St could be interesting. They are likely winners of their last three. They'll have a win against a likely playoff bound SDSU. No really bad losses at the moment. They made the finals last year. They'd be on a three game winning steak. I'm not saying they are in, but they might get a look.

[TheBoyWhoSeaWolf]

So there is a scenario where the Patriot League doesn't have a 7 win team? Ouch.

[Gangtackle11]

Getting to 8:

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (6-2) must go 2-1
Weber State (6-2) must go 2–1
Southern Utah (6-2) must go 2-1
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 3-0
Montana (5-3) must go 3-0


Big South
Kennesaw State (7-1) must go 2-1
Monmouth (7-1) must go 1-2



Colonial
*James Madison (8-0)
Elon (7-1) must go 1-2
Stony Brook (6-2) must go 2-1
New Hampshire (5-3) must go 3-0
Delaware (5-3) must go 3-0

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
NC Central (6-2) must go 3-0


Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-0)
South Dakota (7-1) must go 1-2
Illinois State (6-2) must go 2-1
South Dakota State (6-2) must go 2-1
Western Illinois (5-3) must go 3-0


Northeast
AQ only

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (7-1) must go 1-2
Austin Peay (5-4) must go 3-0


Patriot
AQ only


Pioneer
AQ only


Southern
Wofford (7-1) must go 1-2
Furman (6-3) must go 2-1
Western Carolina (6-3) must go 2-0
Samford (5-3) must go 3-0
The Citadel (5-3) must go 3-0

Southland
Central Arkansas (7-1) must go 1-2
Sam Houston State (7-1) must go 1-2
Nicholls (6-2) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-2) must go 2-1


29 teams (excluding MEAC champ) still have a chance at 8 wins. Some play h2h & will reduce the numbers. There will be a few 7 win teams in, but probably not as many as most seasons?

6 win teams....maybe, but I don’t think so.

29 Teams - 10 AQ = 19 at-large for 14 spots.

[OhioHen]

Richmond (4-4) must go 3-0
Villanova (4-4) must go 3-0


CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (5-3) must go 3-0


Samford (5-3) must go 3-0
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0



Three of these teams will be eliminated from reaching 7 D-I wins this week. Head-to-head matchups in all three pairs on Saturday.

[Gangtackle11]

Three of these teams will be eliminated from reaching 7 D-I wins this week. Head-to-head matchups in all three pairs on Saturday.

Correct, but the NEC doesn’t matter much as it’s AQ only conference. Win the NEC or go home.

[Reign of Terrier]

My obligatory "cutting down for easy reading of non-eliminated teams" (good job once again grizband)


2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 2)

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (6-2) must go 1-2
Weber State (6-2) must go 2-1
Southern Utah (6-2) must go 1-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Montana State (4-4) must go 3-0
Montana (5-3) must go 2-1
UC Davis (4-4) must go 3-0

Big South
Kennesaw State (7-1) must go 1-2
*Monmouth (7-1) must go 1-3


Colonial
*James Madison (8-0)
*Elon (7-1)
Stony Brook (6-2) must go 1-2
New Hampshire (5-3) must go 2-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-1
Maine (4-3) must go 3-0
Richmond (4-4) must go 3-0
Villanova (4-4) must go 3-0


MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
NC Central (6-2) must go 2-1
Hampton (5-3) must go 3-0
Howard (5-3) must go 2-1
Bethune-Cookman (4-4) must go 3-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-0)
*South Dakota (7-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (6-2) must go 1-2
South Dakota State (6-2) must go 1-2
Northern Iowa (4-4) must go 3-0
Western Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Southern Illinois (4-4) must go 3-0

Northeast
Duquesne (7-1) must go 1-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (5-3) must go 3-0

Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (7-1)
Austin Peay (5-4) must go 2-1
Eastern Illinois (5-4) must go 2-0

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0
Bucknell (4-4) must go 3-0

Pioneer
San Diego (6-2) must go 2-1
Drake (5-3) must go 3-0

Southern
*Wofford (7-1)
Furman (6-3) must go 2-1
Western Carolina (6-3) must go 1-1
Samford (5-3) must go 3-0
The Citadel (5-3) must go 3-0
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0

Southland
*Central Arkansas (7-1)
*Sam Houston State (7-1)
Nicholls (6-2) must go 1-2
SE Louisiana (5-4) must go 2-0
McNeese (6-2) must go 2-1


SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0


Three of these teams will be eliminated from reaching 7 D-I wins this week. Head-to-head matchups in all three pairs on Saturday.

Also, Mercer has to play Bama...they may as well be eliminated

[Reign of Terrier]

by my count 49 teams are still in the running but 19 are on the chop block this week

[grizband]

My obligatory "cutting down for easy reading of non-eliminated teams" (good job once again grizband)





Also, Mercer has to play Bama...they may as well be eliminatedVery true. Next will I will update with teams who still play an FBS school.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[ccd494]

While I absolutely agree that Maine must go 3-0 to get in, I'm curious to see what "6-4 with a game lost to a hurricane" means. Do they chalk it up as "Maine wasn't beating UCF anyways" or is it looked at like "Maine won 2 more games than they lost"?

[BisonTru]

I've put this list together in previous weeks and this would be good thread to drop it off.

This list is ranked by Massey and the projected wins is using Massey.




D1 Wins
Proj. Remaining
Proj D1 Wins




N Dakota StMissouri Valley
8
2.36
10.36

8+ D1 wins


James MadisonColonial
8
2.88
10.88

7 D1 wins


South DakotaMissouri Valley
7
1.14
8.14

6 D1 wins


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
6
1.41
7.41

>6 wins


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
4
2.47
6.47




W IllinoisMissouri Valley
5
2.11
7.11




Illinois StMissouri Valley
6
1.08
7.08




Northern ArizonaBig Sky
6
1.88
7.88




Southern UtahBig Sky
6
2.07
8.07




Cent ArkansasSouthland
7
2.95
9.95




Jacksonville StOH Valley
7
2.83
9.83




E WashingtonBig Sky
5
2.34
7.34




Weber StBig Sky
5
2.17
7.17




Youngstown StMissouri Valley
3
2.51
5.51




ElonColonial
7
1.37
8.37




FurmanSouthern
6
1.49
7.49




S IllinoisMissouri Valley
4
1.6
5.6




Sam Houston StSouthland
7
2.87
9.87




Stony BrookColonial
6
2.18
8.18




DelawareColonial
5
1.64
6.64




WoffordSouthern
7
1.8
8.8




MontanaBig Sky
5
1.67
6.67




Montana StBig Sky
4
1.52
5.52




MaineColonial
4
1.51
5.51




UC DavisBig Sky
4
1.39
5.39




VillanovaColonial
4
1.91
5.91




NC A&TMid-Eastern AC
8
2.69
10.69




CS SacramentoBig Sky
4
1.92
5.92




RichmondColonial
4
1.22
5.22




SamfordSouthern
4
1.63
5.63




Monmouth NJBig South
7
2.24
9.24




New HampshireColonial
5
1.53
6.53




MercerSouthern
4
1.15
5.15




W CarolinaSouthern
6
0.97
6.97




KennesawBig South
6
1.23
7.23




McNeese StSouthland
5
2.37
7.37




DuquesneNortheast
6
2.16
8.16




Nicholls StSouthland
6
1.96
7.96




ColgatePatriot League
5
1.92
6.92




Austin PeayOH Valley
5
1.93
6.93




Idaho StBig Sky
3
0.51
3.51




Albany NYColonial
3
1.01
4.01




CitadelSouthern
4
0.64
4.64




North DakotaBig Sky
3
0.37
3.37




SE LouisianaSouthland
5
1.04
6.04




Charleston SoBig South
3
2.03
5.03




TowsonColonial
3
0.98
3.98




San DiegoPioneer
5
2.91
7.91




GramblingSouthwestern AC
7
2.72
9.72




William & MaryColonial
2
1.36
3.36




Missouri StMissouri Valley
2
0.22
2.22




E IllinoisOH Valley
5
0.85
5.85




HowardMid-Eastern AC
5
2.18
7.18




N ColoradoBig Sky
1
0.92
1.92




TN MartinOH Valley
3
1.35
4.35




Rhode IslandColonial
2
0.77
2.77




SF AustinSouthland
4
1.13
5.13




Bethune-CookmanMid-Eastern AC
4
2.21
6.21




Cal PolyBig Sky
0
1.67
1.67




Central ConnNortheast
4
1.7
5.7




ChattanoogaSouthern
2
0.85
2.85




E KentuckyOH Valley
3
1.41
4.41




NC CentralMid-Eastern AC
5
1.34
6.34




St Francis PANortheast
4
1.77
5.77

[kalm]

I may be missing something but it looks like Sac State can still get to 7 DI wins. They have played no DII's and finish with UNC, @ Poly, and Davis. They'll be favored in the first two and maybe all three or at least a pick 'em hosting Davis. They'd have a 3 game win streak, close the season winning 5 of 6, against the #18 SOS, and have a strong win against a playoff team if not a seed in SUU.

[BisonTru]

I may be missing something but it looks like Sac State can still get to 7 DI wins. They have played no DII's and finish with UNC, @ Poly, and Davis. They'll be favored in the first two and maybe all three or at least a pick 'em hosting Davis. They'd have a 3 game win streak, close the season winning 5 of 6, against the #18 SOS, and have a strong win against a playoff team if not a seed in SUU.

Using the list below/above your post, Massey has them winning 2 out of 3, but they are certainly in play to win out and be a very intriguing bubble team.

[ngineer]

So there is a scenario where the Patriot League doesn't have a 7 win team? Ouch.

Colgate a virtual lock to finish 7-4. A shame if we win the PL and they don't get in because I believe they have the best body of work of any of the PL schools this year. Only one bad loss to Furman early on, with a 3 point loss to Richmond and loss to FBS Buffalo, besides their 3 point loss to Lehigh, who will get the AQ if we win our last three. None of those games a lock.

[Schism55]

Colgate a virtual lock to finish 7-4. A shame if we win the PL and they don't get in because I believe they have the best body of work of any of the PL schools this year. Only one bad loss to Furman early on, with a 3 point loss to Richmond and loss to FBS Buffalo, besides their 3 point loss to Lehigh, who will get the AQ if we win our last three. None of those games a lock.
Take your hyperbole elsewhere.
Lest you forget a thread here started a couple weeks ago entitled "Entire Patriot League off to Horrendeous Start"
PL is a 1 bid league, period.

[grizband]

I may be missing something but it looks like Sac State can still get to 7 DI wins. They have played no DII's and finish with UNC, @ Poly, and Davis. They'll be favored in the first two and maybe all three or at least a pick 'em hosting Davis. They'd have a 3 game win streak, close the season winning 5 of 6, against the #18 SOS, and have a strong win against a playoff team if not a seed in SUU.
You are correct; I missed that when I originally updated the list. I'll correct it here.

[van]

Colgate a virtual lock to finish 7-4. A shame if we win the PL and they don't get in because I believe they have the best body of work of any of the PL schools this year. Only one bad loss to Furman early on, with a 3 point loss to Richmond and loss to FBS Buffalo, besides their 3 point loss to Lehigh, who will get the AQ if we win our last three. None of those games a lock.

actually with Furman on the rise, the bad loss was to Lehigh

[Reign of Terrier]

Updating for this week (abbreviated version):

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 1-1
Weber State (7-2) must go 1-1
*Southern Utah (7-2)
Eastern Washington (5-4) must go 2-0
Montana (6-3) must go 1-1
UC Davis (5-4) must go 2-0

Big South
*Kennesaw State (8-1)
*Monmouth (8-1)
(whether or not an at large gets in is all on the committee at this point)


Colonial
*James Madison (8-0)
*Elon (8-1)
*Stony Brook (7-2)
New Hampshire (6-3) must go 1-1
Delaware (6-2) must go 1-1
Richmond (5-4) must go 2-0


MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (9-0)
NC Central (7-2) must go 1-1
Howard (6-3) must go 1-1
Bethune-Cookman (5-4) must go 2-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2) must go 1-2
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
*South Dakota State (7-2)
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1

Northeast
Duquesne (7-2) must go 1-1
CCSU (6-3) must go 2-0


Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (8-1)
Austin Peay (6-4) must go 1-1
Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0

Patriot
Colgate (5-4) must go 2-0

Pioneer
San Diego (7-2) must go 1-1


Southern
*Wofford (8-1)
Furman (6-3) must go 1-1
*Western Carolina (7-3)
Samford (6-3) must go 2-0


Southland
*Central Arkansas (8-1)
*Sam Houston State (8-1)
*Nicholls (7-2)
McNeese (7-2) must go 1-1


SWAC
Alcorn State (6-3) must go 2-0

[Reign of Terrier]

There are 40 teams that can possibly reach 7 D1 wins this year. 9 are facing elimination this week. 9 have 8 Division one wins; 1 of those is NC A&T. I would say that those 8 teams are locks at this point

I don't think a 6-5 team will get in this year because of how up the conferences are collectively, even relative to normal standards (Southland, Big South, Socon, MVFC, CAA are all +1 their normal good teams at this point)

[WestCoastAggie]

Big South
*Kennesaw State (8-1)
*Monmouth (8-1)
(whether or not an at large gets in is all on the committee at this point)

Kennesaw State has the better resume than Monmouth at this point. Beating Montana State on the road in the snow is huge. If the owls make it to 9 wins, they are in. Monmouth needs the AQ, however.

[melloware13]

My take on the update, giving what I think each conference needs for an at large bid:

Big Sky (8, can afford 7 D1 +1)
Southern Utah (7-2) must go 1-1
Weber State (7-2, 6-2 D1) must go 1-1
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 2-0
Montana (6-3) must go 2-0

Big South (9, might be able to afford 8 D1 + 1)
Monmouth (8-1) must go 1-1
Kennesaw State (8-1, 7-1 D1) must go 1-1

Colonial (8)
*James Madison (9-0)
*Elon (8-1)
Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-1
New Hampshire (6-3) must go 2-0
Delaware (6-3) must go 2-0

MEAC (NC A&T had 9 D1 + 1 last year)
North Carolina A&T (9-0, 8-0 D1) needs to beat Sav St and lose to NC Central AND NC Central to beat Bethune (may be other ways with more complicated tiebreaks)

Missouri Valley (7)
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2)
*South Dakota State (7-2)
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0

Northeast (AQ)
CCSU (6-3) @ Duquesne (7-2) winner is in

Ohio Valley (8)
*Jacksonville State (8-1)
Austin Peay (6-4) must go 2-0

Patriot (AQ)
Lehigh (3-6) is in if they win out
Lafayette (3-6) is in if they win out
Colgate (5-4) is in if they win out AND Lafayette beats Lehigh

Pioneer (AQ)
San Diego (7-2) is in with a win OR a Campbell loss

Southern (8, can afford 7 D1 + 1)
*Wofford (8-1)
Western Carolina (7-3) must go 1-1 (1 FBS remaining)
Furman (6-3) must go 2-0 (plays Samford 11/18)
Samford (6-3, 5-3 D1) must go 2-0 (plays Furman 11/18)

Southland (8)
*Central Arkansas (8-1)
*Sam Houston State (8-1)
Nicholls (7-2) must go 1-1
McNeese (7-2, 6-2 D1) must go 2-0

That leaves me 31 teams for 24 spots including AQ, but one is going to be eliminated when Samford and Furman play.

[Reign of Terrier]

My take on the update, giving what I think each conference needs for an at large bid:

Big Sky (8, can afford 7 D1 +1)
Southern Utah (7-2) must go 1-1
Weber State (7-2, 6-2 D1) must go 1-1
Northern Arizona (6-3) must go 2-0
Montana (6-3) must go 2-0

Big South (9, might be able to afford 8 D1 + 1)
Monmouth (8-1) must go 1-1
Kennesaw State (8-1, 7-1 D1) must go 1-1

Colonial (8)
*James Madison (9-0)
*Elon (8-1)
Stony Brook (7-2) must go 1-1
New Hampshire (6-3) must go 2-0
Delaware (6-3) must go 2-0

MEAC (NC A&T had 9 D1 + 1 last year)
North Carolina A&T (9-0, 8-0 D1) needs to beat Sav St and lose to NC Central AND NC Central to beat Bethune (may be other ways with more complicated tiebreaks)

Missouri Valley (7)
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2)
*South Dakota State (7-2)
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0

Northeast (AQ)
CCSU (6-3) @ Duquesne (7-2) winner is in

Ohio Valley (8)
*Jacksonville State (8-1)
Austin Peay (6-4) must go 2-0

Patriot (AQ)
Lehigh (3-6) is in if they win out
Lafayette (3-6) is in if they win out
Colgate (5-4) is in if they win out AND Lafayette beats Lehigh

Pioneer (AQ)
San Diego (7-2) is in with a win OR a Campbell loss

Southern (8, can afford 7 D1 + 1)
*Wofford (8-1)
Western Carolina (7-3) must go 1-1 (1 FBS remaining)
Furman (6-3) must go 2-0 (plays Samford 11/18)
Samford (6-3, 5-3 D1) must go 2-0 (plays Furman 11/18)

Southland (8)
*Central Arkansas (8-1)
*Sam Houston State (8-1)
Nicholls (7-2) must go 1-1
McNeese (7-2, 6-2 D1) must go 2-0

That leaves me 31 teams for 24 spots including AQ, but one is going to be eliminated when Samford and Furman play.

My only counterpoint is that I don't think the Patriot gets an at large this year.

[aceinthehole]

NEC Auto-qualifier comes down to CCSU-Duquesne winner next week.

Question: Due to regionalization, will the first round matchup differ based on who wins and the distance between the schools?

Central Connecticut (New Britain) vs.
- New Hampshire (CAA at-large)
- Stony Brook (CAA at-large)
- Monmouth (Big South AQ)

Duquesne (Pittsburgh) vs.
- Lehigh (Patriot AQ)
- Monmouth (Big South AQ)
- Delaware (CAA at-large)

In 7 years the NEC has the AQ the league has faced a PL or CAA opponent in the first round 5 times; and Albany (NEC) played Stony Brook (Big South). Only once, in 2010, did the NEC have to fly out for a first round game (Robert Morris at NDSU)

[van]

think Monmouth would go to Stony Brook, Dukes might get PL AQ or sent to IL

[smallcollegefbfan]

So there is a scenario where the Patriot League doesn't have a 7 win team? Ouch.

Which fuels my argument for removing the auto bids even more and only taking the 24 best teams. I know the NCAA won't do it but they should. I firmly believe it is tougher to go 6-5 or 7-4 in the MVFC or CAA than 9-2 in the Patriot League, Big South, NEC, etc right now.

[Evolution Prime]

My take on the update, giving what I think each conference needs for an at large bid:

Missouri Valley (7)
*North Dakota State (8-1)
*South Dakota (7-2)
*South Dakota State (7-2)
Illinois State (6-3) must go 1-1
Western Illinois (6-3) must go 1-1
Northern Iowa (5-4) must go 2-0


You could probably pencil in UNI as they have ISUb and MSU left on the schedule. I really don't see how they lose those.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Which fuels my argument for removing the auto bids even more and only taking the 24 best teams. I know the NCAA won't do it but they should. I firmly believe it is tougher to go 6-5 or 7-4 in the MVFC or CAA than 9-2 in the Patriot League, Big South, NEC, etc right now.

Colgate is the best team in the PL this year. I think the Raiders at this point of the season would be a tough 1st round out in the playoffs. At 7-4 the optics would be must better than a 5-6 Lehigh or 5-6 Lafayette.

It's sad there's a reasonable chance the PL will be represented by two two 5-6 teams in past 5 seasons. Lafayette was 5-6 when they earned the auto-bid in 2013. Somewhat ironically, Fordham earned an at-large bid that year....

[grizband]

I'll post the updated list later this afternoon.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[aceinthehole]

(STATS) – At least four teams can clinch titles and automatic bids to the FCS playoffs next Saturday as part of the Week 11 schedule.

The quartet simply needing a win are Central Connecticut State or Duquesne (they face each other) in the Northeast Conference, Jacksonville State (at UT Martin) in the Ohio Valley Conference, San Diego (at Davidson) in the Pioneer Football League and Wofford (at VMI) in the Southern Conference. Others can do the same with a win and other developments within their conference.

[Reign of Terrier]

So far it seems that the locks (9) for this week are (in no particular order):
JMU
Elon
NDSU
SD
SDSU
Jacksonville State
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston

Four teams are in a "win and you're in" situation this week:
Southern Utah
Weber State
Stony Brook
Western Carolina

So I think at this point next week, we'll have 14 "locks" unless an upset happens

these conferences will very likely just get an AQ and that's it(4)...though Big South might have a chance at two with lots and lots of help:
Pioneer
Patriot
Big South
NEC

The bolded teams are almost certainly eliminated if they lose another, just based upon how crowded the field looks right now. Chances are, if you're a bolded team, you scheduled a sub-D1 team or you're already on the brink (UNI). Either way, the below 11+3 are vying for the final 7 spots. It gets even more complicated if NC A&T loses to NCCU, because I'd arguably put an 11-1 NC A&T team in (or at least I know the committee will). In the parenthesis is their record in the event of winning out.
Nichols State (9-2)
Illinois State (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (7-4)
McNeese (8-3)
Furman (8-3)
Samford (8-3)
Northern Arizona (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
New Hampshire (8-3)
Delaware (8-3)

These teams need a lot of help to get in; they have a lot of D1 wins but unimpressive resumes/SOS:
Loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth (would likely be 9-2)
winner of EIU/Austin Peay (would be 7-4 or 8-4)
NCCU (if they lose to NC A&T; if they beat NC A&T, A&T is a lock)

[katss07]

It is so hard to believe Nicholls St this year. The turnaround has been outstanding. If you look at where is program was 3 years ago a where they are now (playoffs), just crazy! And all this talk about how weak the SLC is. 4 teams about to be in the bracket.

[BisonTru]

I don't think Nicholls St is win and in. They need to win out to stay in bubble.

[JSUSoutherner]

You could probably pencil in UNI as they have ISUb and MSU left on the schedule. I really don't see how they lose those.

They specialize in finding ways to lose.


So far it seems that the locks (9) for this week are (in no particular order):
JMU
Elon
NDSU
SD
SDSU
Jacksonville State
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston

Five teams are in a "win and you're in" situation this week:
Southern Utah
Weber State
Stony Brook
Western Carolina
Nichols State

So I think at this point next week, we'll have 14 "locks" unless an upset happens

these conferences will very likely just get an AQ and that's it(4)...though Big South might have a chance at two with lots and lots of help:
Pioneer
Patriot
Big South
NEC

The bolded teams are almost certainly eliminated if they lose another, just based upon how crowded the field looks right now. Chances are, if you're a bolded team, you scheduled a sub-D1 team or you're already on the brink (UNI). Either way, the below 10+3 are vying for the final 6 spots. It gets even more complicated if NC A&T loses to NCCU, because I'd arguably put an 11-1 NC A&T team in (or at least I know the committee will). In the parenthesis is their record in the event of winning out.
Illinois State (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (7-4)
McNeese (8-3)
Furman (8-3)
Samford (8-3)
Northern Arizona (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
New Hampshire (8-3)
Delaware (8-3)

These teams need a lot of help to get in; they have a lot of D1 wins but unimpressive resumes/SOS:
Loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth (would likely be 9-2)
winner of EIU/Austin Peay (would be 7-4 or 8-4)
NCCU (if they lose to NC A&T; if they beat NC A&T, A&T is a lock)

If APSU can win out I think they'd have a strong case for a bid. 8 D1 wins. Yes, they have four losses, but three are FBS and the other is Jax State. Few teams in the FCS could have 9 games with APSU's schedule.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think Nicholls St is win and in. They need to win out to stay in bubble.

Yeah, now that I look at them, they appear to be a win out and they're in sort of deal. I don't see the MVFC getting 2 or 3 7-win teams in over a 9 D1 win Nichols team, but a loss would be bad for Nichols

[Reign of Terrier]

They specialize in finding ways to lose.



If APSU can win out I think they'd have a strong case for a bid. 8 D1 wins. Yes, they have four losses, but three are FBS and the other is Jax State. Few teams in the FCS could have 9 games with APSU's schedule.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're selected, but they have no quality wins to speak of. Arguably Eastern Illinois would be the best choice of an at-large from the OVC because they'll have a win over a 7-5 AP team

[JSUSoutherner]

I wouldn't be surprised if they're selected, but they have no quality wins to speak of. Arguably Eastern Illinois would be the best choice of an at-large from the OVC because they'll have a win over a 7-5 AP team
A 7 win EIU gets left at home. Too many close calls with mediocre teams. APSU is the OVC's only shot at an At-Large IMO.

[BisonTru]

Yeah, now that I look at them, they appear to be a win out and they're in sort of deal. I don't see the MVFC getting 2 or 3 7-win teams in over a 9 D1 win Nichols team, but a loss would be bad for Nichols

Meh, I think 7 wins in the MVFC and you're a lock. Just too tough of a conference that any team with that many wins will have quite the resume. I think 6 wins and you're in the bubble. What win can Nicholls St hang their hat on? McNeese? I wouldn't be shocked if they make it in at 9-2 but 8-3 I would leave them out. JMnHO.

[kalm]

NEC Auto-qualifier comes down to CCSU-Duquesne winner next week.

Question: Due to regionalization, will the first round matchup differ based on who wins and the distance between the schools?

Central Connecticut (New Britain) vs.
- New Hampshire (CAA at-large)
- Stony Brook (CAA at-large)
- Monmouth (Big South AQ)

Duquesne (Pittsburgh) vs.
- Lehigh (Patriot AQ)
- Monmouth (Big South AQ)
- Delaware (CAA at-large)

In 7 years the NEC has the AQ the league has faced a PL or CAA opponent in the first round 5 times; and Albany (NEC) played Stony Brook (Big South). Only once, in 2010, did the NEC have to fly out for a first round game (Robert Morris at NDSU)

And this is how playoff records for the CAA benefit.

[katss07]

Meh, I think 7 wins in the MVFC and you're a lock. Just too tough of a conference that any team with that many wins will have quite the resume. I think 6 wins and you're in the bubble. What win can Nicholls St hang their hat on? McNeese? I wouldn't be shocked if they make it in at 9-2 but 8-3 I would leave them out. JMnHO.

Yeah, if Nicholls and McNeese win out they are in. One loss dooms them.

[McNeese75]

So far it seems that the locks (9) for this week are (in no particular order):
JMU
Elon
NDSU
SD
SDSU
Jacksonville State
Wofford
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston

Four teams are in a "win and you're in" situation this week:
Southern Utah
Weber State
Stony Brook
Western Carolina

So I think at this point next week, we'll have 14 "locks" unless an upset happens

these conferences will very likely just get an AQ and that's it(4)...though Big South might have a chance at two with lots and lots of help:
Pioneer
Patriot
Big South
NEC

The bolded teams are almost certainly eliminated if they lose another, just based upon how crowded the field looks right now. Chances are, if you're a bolded team, you scheduled a sub-D1 team or you're already on the brink (UNI). Either way, the below 11+3 are vying for the final 7 spots. It gets even more complicated if NC A&T loses to NCCU, because I'd arguably put an 11-1 NC A&T team in (or at least I know the committee will). In the parenthesis is their record in the event of winning out.
Nichols State (9-2)
Illinois State (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)
Northern Iowa (7-4)
McNeese (8-3)
Furman (8-3)
Samford (8-3)
Northern Arizona (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
New Hampshire (8-3)
Delaware (8-3)

These teams need a lot of help to get in; they have a lot of D1 wins but unimpressive resumes/SOS:
Loser of Kennesaw/Monmouth (would likely be 9-2)
winner of EIU/Austin Peay (would be 7-4 or 8-4)
NCCU (if they lose to NC A&T; if they beat NC A&T, A&T is a lock)

Not sure why you have McNeese penciled in at 8-3??? 7-2 now and should be favored in the last two games of the year.

[Gangtackle11]

And this is how playoff records for the CAA benefit.

San Diego plays whom?

[clenz]

They specialize in finding ways to lose.

UNI is 50-9 in November since 2001. It’s possible UNI loses one of its next two, but ISUB has completely quit on life and MSU isn’t ever exactly willing to put up a fight on UNI. Last year UNI beat MSU by 56....after UNI was already locked into a sub .500 record.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JSUSoutherner]

UNI is 50-9 in November since 2001. It’s possible UNI loses one of its next two, but ISUB has completely quit on life and MSU isn’t ever exactly willing to put up a fight on UNI. Last year UNI beat MSU by 56....after UNI was already locked into a sub .500 record.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Where there's a will there's a way.

[grizband]

I created a new thread with version 3 (games through November 4) of the at large playoff eligibility. I'll add some analysis there, but wanted to alert everyone it was up.