Bracketoloty Week 8

[BisonTru]

My take:




Monmouth
1
James Madison








Villanova
































Western Carolina
8
Wofford








Elon
































Nicholls St
4
Central Arkansas









Northern Iowa
































Weber St
5
Western Illinois








Sam Houston St
































Duquesne
3
Jacksonville St.








Samford
































Eastern Washington
6
South Dakota








South Dakota St
































San Diego
7
Southern Utah








Northern Arizona
































Lehigh
2
North Dakota St








Delaware



































Autos
At larges





First four out
Montana

Big Sky
Southern Utah
Eastern Wash
Northern Arizona
Weber St




Youngstown St

Big South
Monmouth







McNeese St

CAA
James Madison
Delaware
Elon
Villanova




Furman

MVFC
North Dakota St
Western Ill
South Dakota
Northern Iowa
South Dakota St





NEC
Duquesne






Next four out
Stony Brook

OVC
Jacksonville St







Illinois State

Patroit
Lehigh







Southern Illinois

Pioneer
San Diego







Kennesaw St

Southern
Wofford
Samford
Western Carolina








Southland
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston St
Nicholls St

[Professor Chaos]

Looks pretty good to me. The Nicholls/Montana debate would really show whether the committee keeps an eye towards balancing the books for the championship since they'd have to know Montana bids big and draws big compared to everyone but especially to a team like Nicholls.

[BisonTru]

Nobowls bracket (http://nobowls.com/)

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png

[Professor Chaos]

Nobowls bracket (http://nobowls.com/)

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png
5 of 6 MVFC teams in two 3 team pods wouldn't cause any complaints I bet. xlolx

[BisonTru]

Looks pretty good to me. The Nicholls/Montana debate would really show whether the committee keeps an eye towards balancing the books for the championship since they'd have to know Montana bids big and draws big compared to everyone but especially to a team like Nicholls.

The debate kind of came down to Villanova vs. Montana. I decided either Nicholls or McNeese would get in and the other out. Since Nicholls has the head to head win, they got the nod. If I put Montana in, which I agree will be attractive with their crowd, that would put 5 Big Sky teams in and only 3 CAA teams.

[Gangtackle11]

Nova-Lehigh is a repeat game. I guess OOC games can be repeated, but my guess would be Monmouth to Nova. Lehigh to Delaware if this played out. Lots of work to do from Nova’s side.

[FargoBison]

My bracket...

Duquesne at Stony Brook vs 1. JMU
Lehigh at Delaware vs 8. Samford

EWU at McNeese State vs 5. SHSU
Kennesaw State at WIU vs 4. UCA

Western Carolina at Elon vs 3. JSU
SUU at SDSU vs 6. USD

Weber State at Illinois State vs 7. Wofford
San Diego at NAU vs 2. NDSU

Bubble: Montana, UNI, Furman, YSU, Nova, UNH, Nicholls State, Richmond, SIU

[Professor Chaos]

The debate kind of came down to Villanova vs. Montana. I decided either Nicholls or McNeese would get in and the other out. Since Nicholls has the head to head win, they got the nod. If I put Montana in, which I agree will be attractive with their crowd, that would put 5 Big Sky teams in and only 3 CAA teams.
I guess if Nicholls is 9-2 they're safe no matter what. I'd agree that Villanova should be in over Montana if both are 7-4. Nova would have a win over either Elon or Delaware to get to 7-4 and assuming Montana would've lost to Weber St and NAU to get to 7-4 meaning the Griz would have zero quality wins. If Nicholls is 8-3 though... them or 7-4 Montana would be a good debate.

[BisonTru]

Nova-Lehigh is a repeat game. I guess OOC games can be repeated, but my guess would be Monmouth to Nova. Lehigh to Delaware if this played out. Lots of work to do from Nova’s side.

Like you said they wouldn't have to, but they might split it up like you said. You could split it up and send either matchup to JMU and the other to NDSU.

[Professor Chaos]

I'd say every bubble team out there needs to become a big Southeastern Louisiana fan from here on out. They finish with McNeese and Nicholls so they have a chance to weaken the bubble considerably if they pick up one or both of those games (although if they win both they'd be on the bubble themselves most likely).

[Dukie95]

New Hampshire had a good run...

[ST_Lawson]

My bracket...

Duquesne at Stony Brook vs 1. JMU
Lehigh at Delaware vs 8. Samford

EWU at McNeese State vs 5. SHSU
Kennesaw State at WIU vs 4. UCA

Western Carolina at Elon vs 3. JSU
SUU at SDSU vs 6. USD

Weber State at Illinois State vs 7. Wofford
San Diego at NAU vs 2. NDSU

Bubble: Montana, UNI, Furman, YSU, Nova, UNH, Nicholls State, Richmond, SIU

One fix...if WIU vs Kennesaw State, game in Georgia.

[BisonTru]

This would be the bracket based off the AGS poll:




Duquesne
1
James Madison








Villanova
































Wofford
8
Western Illinois








Illinois St
































San Diego
4
Central Arkansas








Northern Arizona
































Eastern Washington
5
South Dakota








South Dakota St
































Southern Utah
3
Jacksonville St.








Samford
































Western Carolina
6
Sam Houston St








McNeese St
































Lehigh
7
Elon








Delaware
































Monmouth
2
North Dakota St








Stony Brook



































Autos
At larges





First four out
Northern Iowa

Big Sky
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Eastern Wash





Youngstown St

Big South
Monmouth







Richmond

CAA
James Madison
Elon
Delaware
Villanova
Stony Brook



Weber St

MVFC
North Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
South Dakota St
Illinois St





NEC
Duquesne






Next four out
Montana

OVC
Jacksonville St







New Hampshire

Patroit
Lehigh







Furman

Pioneer
San Diego







Nicholls St

Southern
Wofford
Samford
Western Carolina







Southland
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston
McNeese St

[dbackjon]

This would be the bracket based off the AGS poll:




Duquesne
1
James Madison








Villanova
































Wofford
8
Western Illinois








Illinois St
































San Diego
4
Central Arkansas








Northern Iowa
































Eastern Washington
5
South Dakota








South Dakota St
































Southern Utah
3
Jacksonville St.








Samford
































Western Carolina
6
Sam Houston St








McNeese St
































Lehigh
7
Elon








Delaware
































Monmouth
2
North Dakota St








Stony Brook



































Autos
At larges





First four out
Northern Iowa

Big Sky
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Eastern Wash





Youngstown St

Big South
Monmouth







Richmond

CAA
James Madison
Elon
Delaware
Villanova
Stony Brook



Weber St

MVFC
North Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
South Dakota St
Illinois St





NEC
Duquesne






Next four out
Montana

OVC
Jacksonville St







New Hampshire

Patroit
Lehigh







Furman

Pioneer
San Diego







Nicholls St

Southern
Wofford
Samford
Western Carolina







Southland
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston
McNeese St







I assume you meant NAU playing San Diego, not UNI?

[BisonTru]

I assume you meant NAU playing San Diego, not UNI?

Yep. I'll fix it.

[RootinFerDukes]

Unless there is absolutely no other regional option, they will avoid Lehigh/Villanova in the 1st round since it's a rematch. I thought there's a no rematch rule in the 1st round only.

[RootinFerDukes]

5 of 6 MVFC teams in two 3 team pods wouldn't cause any complaints I bet. xlolx

We can't assume any conference is going to get six until one does, just like the 6 win threshold. I don't believe in the 20 or 24 team field era, a conference has had more than 5 teams in.

[Professor Chaos]

We can't assume any conference is going to get six until one does, just like the 6 win threshold. I don't believe in the 20 or 24 team field era, a conference has had more than 5 teams in.
Yeah it won't happen, at least not this year. The only reason NoBowls projects it that way is because they set the bracket as if the playoffs started this week. Both the MVFC and the CAA would've probably had 6 teams in using that criteria at different points this year but as those conferences cannibalize each other they'll get pared down to 5 or 4 each.

[grizband]

Yeah it won't happen, at least not this year. The only reason NoBowls projects it that way is because they set the bracket as if the playoffs started this week. Both the MVFC and the CAA would've probably had 6 teams in using that criteria at different points this year but as those conference cannibalize each other they'll get pared down to 5 or 4 each.
This scenario exists to some degree for the Big Sky as well. A potentially 3-4 team league this year, many of the top teams still play each other in the remaining 4 weeks of conference play.

[BisonTru]

We can't assume any conference is going to get six until one does, just like the 6 win threshold. I don't believe in the 20 or 24 team field era, a conference has had more than 5 teams in.

We've had 3 6 D1 win teams in the playoffs and people still talk about 7 D1 wins as if it's a threshold.

6 D1 wins is the threshold and there is no threshold on any conference as far as how many.


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[RootinFerDukes]

We've had 3 6 D1 win teams in the playoffs and people still talk about 7 D1 wins as if it's a threshold.

6 D1 wins is the threshold and there is no threshold on any conference as far as how many.


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The MVFC has had two 6-5 teams while the Socon had one 7-4 with 6 D1 wins. 7-4 still looks better than 6-5 on paper. It's not exactly the same.

We can talk when a team outside of the MVFC gets in with a 6-5 record.

[wcugrad95]

Unless there is absolutely no other regional option, they will avoid Lehigh/Villanova in the 1st round since it's a rematch. I thought there's a no rematch rule in the 1st round only.

I'll have to go read it again, but I ***thought*** that the 1st round (non-seeded teams) just wouldn't pitch conference members against each other for a rematch? Could be rematches in general, but I am pretty sure I saw the word "conference" in there.

[RootinFerDukes]

I'll have to go read it again, but I ***thought*** that the 1st round (non-seeded teams) just wouldn't pitch conference members against each other for a rematch? Could be rematches in general, but I am pretty sure I saw the word "conference" in there.

I think it's conference members first but OOC rematches are also avoided second. If it forces an extra flight instead of a bus trip, then they'll disregard rematches altogether. It's all about saving the NCAA a buck.

[Professor Chaos]

I'll have to go read it again, but I ***thought*** that the 1st round (non-seeded teams) just wouldn't pitch conference members against each other for a rematch? Could be rematches in general, but I am pretty sure I saw the word "conference" in there.
Yeah, they word it very specifically to create money saving loopholes. The stipulation is "no intra-conference rematches if it's both team's first playoff game". So OOC rematches are ok even in the first round and they can bracket it so 2nd round rematches are possible (or even guaranteed) because that is only the seeded team's first playoff game.

[RootinFerDukes]

Yeah, they word it very specifically to create money saving loopholes. The stipulation is "no intra-conference rematches if it's both team's first playoff game". So OOC rematches are ok even in the first round and they can bracket it so 2nd round rematches are possible (or even guaranteed) because that is only the seeded team's first playoff game.

So there's nothing in the language that indicates they avoid ooc rematches in 1st round games?

[nevadagriz]

The most costly Bye-week ever for Montana lol. Last week in all playoff brackets and in AGS top 25, took a week of and poof they disappear!

[wcugrad95]

Here it is from the manual:

BRACKET PAIRINGS
All pairings will be made by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee. The following principles are appliedwhen pairing teams:
1. The teams awarded the top eight seeds shall receive a bye in the first round and are placed in the appropriate positionsin the bracket (Nos. 1, 8, 4 and 5 in the upper half; and Nos. 2, 7, 3 and 6 in the lower half);
2. The remaining 16 teams will play first-round games and will be paired according to geographic proximity and thenplaced in the bracket according to geographic proximity of the top eight seeds previously placed in the bracket;
3. The NCAA mileage threshold for mandatory team travel via ground is 400 miles;
4. If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow an additional flight in the first orsecond round in order to avoid a conference having all of its teams on the same side of the bracket.
5. Regular season non-conference match-ups in the first round of the championship should be avoided, provided it doesnot create an additional flight(s).
6. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games (except for teams from the same conferencethat did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first round);
7. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to the bracket (e.g., a seeded teammay play a conference opponent that advanced out of the first round).

So spot-on - #5 says they want to avoid them unless it costs the NCAA a flight!

[BisonTru]

So there's nothing in the language that indicates they avoid ooc rematches in 1st round games?

No there isn't.

Edit: NM looks like there is.


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[ST_Lawson]

Conference members who did not play each other in the regular season are all good for the first round though, just as a reminder.
Hence why the nobowls bracket can send Illinois State to Northern Iowa then have the winner play at our house...ILSU and UNI don't play each other in the regular season this year.

[BisonTru]

Nova-Lehigh is a repeat game. I guess OOC games can be repeated, but my guess would be Monmouth to Nova. Lehigh to Delaware if this played out. Lots of work to do from Nova’s side.

I decided to switch up my bracket as I think you have a point here.

[X-Factor]

Nobowls bracket (http://nobowls.com/)

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png

Oh god, please?! SHSU in the quarters, JSU for semis, all other Valleys on JMU side? This has got to be an April fools...

[ngineer]

Nova-Lehigh is a repeat game. I guess OOC games can be repeated, but my guess would be Monmouth to Nova. Lehigh to Delaware if this played out. Lots of work to do from Nova’s side.

I agree. Nothing against 'nova, as I would love a rematch, but it's been too long not having played the Hens. We need to renew that series more frequently.

[wcugrad95]

Nobowls bracket (http://nobowls.com/)

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png

I am no geography major, but aren't there several airplane rides in this bracket?

Delaware/Wofford
EWU/SDSU
Southern Utah/Samford
Northern Arizona/San Diego

That is half the first round games costing the NCAA airfare - probably not going to happen. They'll fix games to avoid this :)

[kalm]

I am no geography major, but aren't there several airplane rides in this bracket?

Delaware/Wofford
EWU/SDSU
Southern Utah/Samford
Northern Arizona/San Diego

That is half the first round games costing the NCAA airfare - probably not going to happen. They'll fix games to avoid this :)

There are literally no bus rides when it comes to the BSC teams this year except maybe USD and NAU.

[BisonTru]

I am no geography major, but aren't there several airplane rides in this bracket?

Delaware/Wofford
EWU/SDSU
Southern Utah/Samford
Northern Arizona/San Diego

That is half the first round games costing the NCAA airfare - probably not going to happen. They'll fix games to avoid this :)

Who you going to bus to EWU, SUU, NAU, or USD?

[wcugrad95]

Tongue-in-cheek with the comment about the NCAA "fixing" games to avoid (hence the smiley).

[ngineer]

Heck, a few years ago didn't Wagner have to schlep out to EWU?

[Gangtackle11]

AQ:
Big South: Charleston So.
Big Sky: So. Utah
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville St.
Pioneer: San Diego
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Samford
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large:
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Youngstown State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Villanova
Delaware
Elon
Western Carolina
Wofford
Sam Houston State
McNeese State

First Four Out:
Stony Brook
Nicholls State
Kennesaw State
Montana

Brackets:

Samford/Villanova vs. #1 JMU
Elon/Western Carolina vs. #8 Western Illinois

San Diego/Eastern Washington vs. #5 South Dakota
McNeese State/Northern Iowa vs. #4 Central Arkansas

Lehigh/Delaware vs. #6 Sam Houston State
Charleston So./Wofford vs. #3 Jacksonville State

Duquesne/Youngstown State vs. #7 Southern Utah
Northern Arizona/Weber State vs. #2 NDSU


*Used Massey predictions to determine field of 24 & AQ/At-Large

[Houndawg]

AQ:
Big South: Charleston So.
Big Sky: So. Utah
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville St.
Pioneer: San Diego
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Samford
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large:
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Youngstown State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Villanova
Delaware
Elon
Western Carolina
Wofford
Sam Houston State
McNeese State

First Four Out:
Stony Brook
Nicholls State
Kennesaw State
Montana

Brackets:

Samford/Villanova vs. #1 JMU
Elon/Western Carolina vs. #8 Western Illinois

San Diego/Eastern Washington vs. #5 South Dakota
McNeese State/Northern Iowa vs. #4 Central Arkansas

Lehigh/Delaware vs. #6 Sam Houston State
Charleston So./Wofford vs. #3 Jacksonville State

Duquesne/Youngstown State vs. #7 Southern Utah
Northern Arizona/Weber State vs. #2 NDSU


*Used Massey predictions to determine field of 24 & AQ/At-Large

YSU won't make it

[Gangtackle11]

YSU won't make it

Fine by me. Nova has some work to do so it’s ok if you say so. Less teams to fight for at-large bids the better.

YSU remaining games:
ISUr
@ Indiana St.
@ SIU
Missouri State

[Daytripper]

AQ:
Big South: Charleston So.
Big Sky: So. Utah
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: Duquesne
OVC: Jacksonville St.
Pioneer: San Diego
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Samford
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large:
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Youngstown State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Villanova
Delaware
Elon
Western Carolina
Wofford
Sam Houston State
McNeese State

First Four Out:
Stony Brook
Nicholls State
Kennesaw State
Montana

Brackets:

Samford/Villanova vs. #1 JMU
Elon/Western Carolina vs. #8 Western Illinois

San Diego/Eastern Washington vs. #5 South Dakota
McNeese State/Northern Iowa vs. #4 Central Arkansas

Lehigh/Delaware vs. #6 Sam Houston State
Charleston So./Wofford vs. #3 Jacksonville State

Duquesne/Youngstown State vs. #7 Southern Utah
Northern Arizona/Weber State vs. #2 NDSU


*Used Massey predictions to determine field of 24 & AQ/At-Large

Ahhh... potential second round matchup between Keeler and Delaware. I like it.

[LehighU11]

Ahhh... potential second round matchup between Keeler and Delaware. I like it.
Keeler is from the Lehigh Valley, growing up just a few miles away from LU. Of course, that story line wouldn't be as good as a revenge game against UD. Also, Lehigh almost certainly isn't going past the 1st round this year.

[PantherRob82]

Fine by me. Nova has some work to do so it’s ok if you say so. Less teams to fight for at-large bids the better.

YSU remaining games:
ISUr
@ Indiana St.
@ SIU
Missouri State

They probably lose to ISUr or SIU

[Baltimore Hen]

Delaware currently sitting at 5-2 3-1CAA, has 4 games left, all of which are very winnable games for the Hens. There will always be potential stumbling blocks, but is DR keeps the Hens focusedthey can win out and finish 9-2. If that happens their only losses would be to JMU and VT. To me that would solidly put them in the top 8 seeds......I am thinking 5 or 6. I think the worst case scenario for the Hens at this point is 3-1 down the stretch.....

[Professor Chaos]

Delaware currently sitting at 5-2 3-1CAA, has 4 games left, all of which are very winnable games for the Hens. There will always be potential stumbling blocks, but is DR keeps the Hens focusedthey can win out and finish 9-2. If that happens their only losses would be to JMU and VT. To me that would solidly put them in the top 8 seeds......I am thinking 5 or 6. I think the worst case scenario for the Hens at this point is 3-1 down the stretch.....
I don't follow Delaware all that closely but you might want to pump the brakes a bit. Delaware has played 5 of 6 FCS games thus far at home and now 3 of their last 4 are on the road. The last 3 games (@Maine, vs Albany, and @Nova) are not gimmes. Massey gives Delaware a 57%, 75%, and 41% chance of winning each of those games so he thinks losing 1 is likely and losing 2 is a decent possibility. I'd say worst case scenario for Delaware down the stretch is 1-3 which would put them out of the playoffs but if they win out they'd definitely be seeded. Win 2 or 3 and they're in just not with a seed.

[one_armed_man]

I'd say every bubble team out there needs to become a big Southeastern Louisiana fan from here on out. They finish with McNeese and Nicholls so they have a chance to weaken the bubble considerably if they pick up one or both of those games (although if they win both they'd be on the bubble themselves most likely).
I would expect nothing less coming from Professor Chaos.

[caribbeanhen]

Ahhh... potential second round matchup between Keeler and Delaware. I like it.

The long awaited much anticipated match between Sammy Houston State versus Delaware better hurry up and happen because KC is probably on his way out.....right?

[BisonTru]

The long awaited much anticipated match between Sammy Houston State versus Delaware better hurry up and happen because KC is probably on his way out.....right?

Who would you root for?


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[caribbeanhen]

Who would you root for?


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I don't root for coaches

[RootinFerDukes]

The long awaited much anticipated match between Sammy Houston State versus Delaware better hurry up and happen because KC is probably on his way out.....right?

I would absolutely love to see that playoff game, especially in Delaware. Make it happen.

[BisonTru]

I don't root for coaches

ok.

you and Clucky

[caribbeanhen]

ok.

you and Clucky

you and MTfanforlife

[HENJOHN]

The long awaited much anticipated match between Sammy Houston State versus Delaware better hurry up and happen because KC is probably on his way out.....right?

KC misses Delaware so much he'd probably run onto the wrong sideline with his Delaware windbreaker on.

[katss07]

I would love to see a UD vs Sam Houston playoff matchup. If motivation is an issue for this Kats team, Keeler will definitely have them ready for the Blue Hens.

Or we could just take Lehigh and basically a second round bye.

[Daytripper]

The long awaited much anticipated match between Sammy Houston State versus Delaware better hurry up and happen because KC is probably on his way out.....right?

It seems like every season Keeler's name pops up in G5 head coaching job discussions. As he is getting up in years, I expect he will eventually jump at the big pay day ala Willie Fritz. It could be this year...who knows?

[BisonTru]

you and MTfanforlife

https://i.imgur.com/ABtwP3k.gif

[WCU-Cats!]

should make for a crazy final 4 weeks of regular season, hoping for the best for the socon

[one_armed_man]

I wouldn't be surprised if the selection committee has UCA between 6 and 8 seed.

[caribbeanhen]

KC misses Delaware so much he'd probably run onto the wrong sideline with his Delaware windbreaker on.

No doubt henJohn, actually it always seems like he always has some blue somewhere on is Attire