2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

[grizband]

2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

I compiled a list of FCS teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins this season. Although 7 wins is no longer the official plateau for at-large selection, it is highly unlikely a 6-5 team will be selected. The list is for reference only, and is not meant to predict the probability of the teams selected. It will be updated weekly, as teams are eliminated, or teams secure their conference auto-bid.

Teams are organized by conference, although Ivy League teams are not included since their conference does not participate in the FCS playoffs. MEAC teams are listed since their second place team could still theoretically receive a playoff berth; only Alcorn State from the SWAC is listed, since all other teams are eliminated, or have schedule conflicts.

Teams preceded by an asterisk (*) have already reached 7 Division 1 wins; those listed in bold need to win all remaining games to reach 7 Division I wins.

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 2-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana (5-2) must go 2-2
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana State (3-4) must go 4-0
Idaho State (4-4) must go 3-0
UC Davis (3-4) must go 4-0

Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 2-2
Monmouth (6-1) must go 1-3
Charleston Southern (4-3) must go 4-0

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
*James Madison (7-0)
Elon (6-1) must go 1-3
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 2-2
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2
Richmond (4-3) must go 3-1
Villanova (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (3-3) must go 4-0
Albany (3-4) must go 4-0

Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 3-1
NC Central (5-2) must go 3-1
Howard (4-3) must go 4-0
Norfolk State 3-4 must go 4-0
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) must go 4-0

Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0)
South Dakota (6-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (5-2) must go 2-2
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 2-2
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 2-2
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 3-1
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0

Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 1-3
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 2-2
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 3-1

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must go 3-0
Bucknell (4-3) must go 3-1

Lehigh (2-5) eliminated
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must go 3-0
Drake (4-3) must go 4-0

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 1-4
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 1-3
Furman (5-3) must go 2-1
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0
The Citadel (4-3) must go 4-0

ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

[wapiti]

Good work.

Thanks

[grizband]

Good work.

Thanks
You're welcome. It's something I enjoy putting together, to really illustrate the overall landscape of FCS football.

[wapiti]

You're welcome. It's something I enjoy putting together, to really illustrate the overall landscape of FCS football.

I probably put your head in a tail spin. A Cat fan saying thanks to a griz fan. Maybe the world is about to end!!! xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

Good stuff Grizband

[grizband]

Good stuff Grizband
Thanks! I'll keep putting out a list every week, until selection Sunday.

[wcugrad95]

So if you cut it down to the teams who do NOT need to win all their remaining games (I know that is still very much possible - but trying to pair things down somehow), and you take out the MEAC and SWAC champs who will play in the Celebration Bowl, am I correct in saying this is getting it down to roughly 40 or so teams for 24 total spots? But given you have 10 AQs, that roughly means 30-35 teams for the 14 at-larges. Lots of moving parts between now and 11/19, and some worthy teams (at least on paper) are not going to be happy.

[grizband]

So if you cut it down to the teams who do NOT need to win all their remaining games (I know that is still very much possible - but trying to pair things down somehow), and you take out the MEAC and SWAC champs who will play in the Celebration Bowl, am I correct in saying this is getting it down to roughly 40 or so teams for 24 total spots? But given you have 10 AQs, that roughly means 30-35 teams for the 14 at-larges. Lots of moving parts between now and 11/19, and some worthy teams (at least on paper) are not going to be happy.
Your last sentence is an excellent point; it's early, and many moving parts to be decided before 11/19. Without removing the MEAC completely, there are currently 60 teams who can reach 7 Division 1 wins, 18 of which must win out to attain that plateau. Realistically, neither the Pioneer or Patriot Leagues will have an at large berth this year, so that eliminates 5 teams there.

[Terryer]

Excellent research. Thanks for posting. Looking forward to this being updated each week.

[aceinthehole]

2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

If CCSU wins out (8-3, 6-0 NEC) the Blue Devils would win the NEC AQ and would not be considered for an at-large. Under that scenario, Duquesne might be considered for an at-large bid if it wins 3 of its remaining 4 games.

Duquesne (9-2, 5-1 NEC) might get consideration, but I doubt gets selected, with the following resume:
Loss at #4 South Dakota State - MVFC at-large
Loss vs. Central Conn. State - NEC Champ (AQ)
Wins vs. SFU, at Liberty, at SHU, at Dayton

[BEAR]

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

UCA: 5-0, 6-1 McNeese, Lamar, UIW, ACU
SLU: 5-1, 5-3 Sam, McNeese, Nicholls
McNeese: 4-1 6-1, UCA, SLU, NWST, Lamar
SHSU: 4-1, 6-1 SLU, UIW, ACU, HBU
Nicholls: 4-1, 5-2 UIW, HBU, SFA, SLU

The highlighted teams above are the ones I think will be trouble for the teams listed. SLU has it the toughest IMO but they also play the spoiler for McNeese, Sam, and Nicholls. BIG game this weekend for the Cowboys and the Bears. If the Bears win then all they have to do is hold serve. They lose and there will be 3 teams with 1 conference loss.

[AggieManiac704]

Let the bracketology begin

[StateLineLiquors]

That was very thorough, thanks for your efforts. Looks like 64 teams currently eligible for 24 slots, if my basic addition is correct (excluding SWAC non-entrants). Will be interesting to watch the numbers winnow down.

[Reign of Terrier]

2017 FCS Playoff At Large Eligibility (Version 1)

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 2-2
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 2-1
Weber State (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 2-2
Montana (5-2) must go 2-2
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 3-1
Montana State (3-4) must go 4-0
Idaho State (4-4) must go 3-0
UC Davis (3-4) must go 4-0

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 2-2
Monmouth (6-1) must go 1-3
Charleston Southern (4-3) must go 4-0 [cannot be an at large; must win conference]

Colonial
*James Madison (7-0)
Elon (6-1) must go 1-3
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 2-2
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 2-2
Delaware (5-2) must go 2-2
Richmond (4-3) must go 3-1
Villanova (4-3) must go 3-1
Maine (3-3) must go 4-0
Albany (3-4) must go 4-0

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 3-1
NC Central (5-2) must go 3-1
Howard (4-3) must go 4-0
Norfolk State 3-4 must go 4-0
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) must go 4-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0)
South Dakota (6-1) must go 1-3
Illinois State (5-2) must go 2-2
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 3-1
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 2-2
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 2-2
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 3-1
Youngstown State (3-4) must go 4-0

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 2-2
CCSU (5-3) must go 3-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must go 4-0
Sacred Heart (3-4) must go 4-0

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 1-3
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 2-2
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 2-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 3-1

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must go 3-0
Bucknell (4-3) must go 3-1

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must go 3-0
Drake (4-3) must go 4-0

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 1-4
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 1-3
Furman (5-3) must go 2-1
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1
Mercer (4-4) must go 3-0
The Citadel (4-3) must go 4-0

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 1-3
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 2-1
McNeese (6-1) must go 1-3
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 1-3
Nicholls (5-2) must go 2-2

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) must go 3-0

Here's an abbreviated version of the original post: one logical note though, some of these teams *cannot* be at large teams. Why? Because they have to win out their remaining games to get to the eligibility mark, but in doing so, they would win their own conference. An example of this is Charleston Southern. If they lose a game, they cannot get an at-large spot.

I'm sure there are others who fit this criteria as well, I just knew Charleston Southern fit this definition.

[grizband]

Here's an abbreviated version of the original post: one logical note though, some of these teams *cannot* be at large teams. Why? Because they have to win out their remaining games to get to the eligibility mark, but in doing so, they would win their own conference. An example of this is Charleston Southern. If they lose a game, they cannot get an at-large spot.

I'm sure there are others who fit this criteria as well, I just knew Charleston Southern fit this definition.
That is true, and something I will probably address in the next week or two as the conference races come into focus.

[grizband]

If CCSU wins out (8-3, 6-0 NEC) the Blue Devils would win the NEC AQ and would not be considered for an at-large. Under that scenario, Duquesne might be considered for an at-large bid if it wins 3 of its remaining 4 games.

Duquesne (9-2, 5-1 NEC) might get consideration, but I doubt gets selected, with the following resume:
Loss at #4 South Dakota State - MVFC at-large
Loss vs. Central Conn. State - NEC Champ (AQ)
Wins vs. SFU, at Liberty, at SHU, at Dayton
These are accurate points, and as I told Youngterrier, something I will address in the coming weeks as conference races come into focus. For this first version, I primarily wanted to illustrate the teams still capable of reaching 7 Division 1 wins.

[paward]

Mercer must go 4-0. No knock but one of those games is Alabama. We may want to move them to eliminate column.

[NorthChuckSouth]

Here's an abbreviated version of the original post: one logical note though, some of these teams *cannot* be at large teams. Why? Because they have to win out their remaining games to get to the eligibility mark, but in doing so, they would win their own conference. An example of this is Charleston Southern. If they lose a game, they cannot get an at-large spot.

I'm sure there are others who fit this criteria as well, I just knew Charleston Southern fit this definition.

xdrunkyx

[wcugrad95]

Mercer must go 4-0. No knock but one of those games is Alabama. We may want to move them to eliminate column.

Tough schedule for them this year - they played both Auburn and Alabama, so no wiggle-room in the schedule at all.

[grizband]

Mercer must go 4-0. No knock but one of those games is Alabama. We may want to move them to eliminate column.
Mercer only has three games remaining (they have a bye coming up this weekend), so you're correct; onlymost difficult games remain. Samford and Western Carolina would be difficult to begin, but finishing with Alabama is tough!

[JSUSoutherner]

Mercer must go 4-0. No knock but one of those games is Alabama. We may want to move them to eliminate column.
To hell with Bama.

[UNH72Plus]

I was going through the same exercise this week. Do you think that many, if any 7-4 teams will be selected (not counting a 4 loss AQ, which may happen in the Patriot League)? Perhaps a MVFC or CAA team?

Not counting the Ivy's, MEAC, and SWAC there are 46 teams with three or fewer losses and at least 5 of the three loss teams play another three loss team, so that get's it down to 41 teams. Eight of the 46 teams are in the CAA and seven are in the MVFC and I believe that all their remaining games are in the conferences, so some of them will drop to 4 losses. Throw in Citadel's last game against Clemson and their at four losses (sorry Citdog). The next couple of weeks should winnow the field down even more.

[Gangtackle11]

I was going through the same exercise this week. Do you think that many, if any 7-4 teams will be selected (not counting a 4 loss AQ, which may happen in the Patriot League)? Perhaps a MVFC or CAA team?

Not counting the Ivy's, MEAC, and SWAC there are 46 teams with three or fewer losses and at least 5 of the three loss teams play another three loss team, so that get's it down to 41 teams. Eight of the 46 teams are in the CAA and seven are in the MVFC and I believe that all their remaining games are in the conferences, so some of them will drop to 4 losses. Throw in Citadel's last game against Clemson and their at four losses (sorry Citdog). The next couple of weeks should winnow the field down even more.

The way it’s playing out there won’t be room for 7-4 teams. I don’t expect my Cats to get in unless they win the remaining 4 (to finish 8-3) & they are a current Top 15-20 squad in the CAA.

[Lehigh'98]

The way it’s playing out there won’t be room for 7-4 teams. I don’t expect my Cats to get in unless they win the remaining 4 (to finish 8-3) & they are a current Top 15 squad in the CAA.

YSU is in at 7-4.

[Gangtackle11]

I think with an exception here or there (Youngstown St.?) it’s a 8 win or go home year.

So let’s take the list and see who can get to 8:

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 3-1
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 3-0
Weber State (5-2) must go 4-0
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 3-1
Montana (5-2) must go 3-1
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 4-0

Montana State (3-4) eliminated
Idaho State (4-4) eliminated
UC Davis (3-4) eliminated
Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 3-1
Monmouth (6-1) must go 2-2
Charleston Southern (4-3) must win BS

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
James Madison (7-0) must go 1-3
Elon (6-1) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 3-1
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 3-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 3-1
Richmond (4-3) must go 4-0
Villanova (4-3) must go 4-0

Maine (3-3) eliminated
Albany (3-4) eliminated
Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 4-0
NC Central (5-2) must go 4-0

Howard (4-3) eliminated
Norfolk State 3-4 eliminated
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) eliminated
Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0) must go 1-3
South Dakota (6-1) must go 2-2
Illinois State (5-2) must go 3-1
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 4-0
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 3-1
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 4-0

Youngstown State (3-4) eliminated **
Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 3-1
CCSU (5-3) must go 4-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must win NEC
Sacred Heart (3-4) must win NEC

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 2-2
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 3-1
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 3-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 4-0

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must win PL
Bucknell (4-3) must win PL
Lehigh (2-5) eliminated -must win PL
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must win PL
Drake (4-3) must win PL

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 2-3
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 2-2
Furman (5-3) must go 3-0
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1

Mercer (4-4) eliminated
The Citadel (4-3) eliminated
ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 2-2
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 3-0
McNeese (6-1) must go 2-2
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 2-2
Nicholls (5-2) must go 3-1

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) eliminated


** probable gets in @ 7-4

[Gangtackle11]

36 teams have a chance at 8 D1 wins. Not including any teams from Pioneer, MEAC, SWAC, or NEC as they are most likely champion only league or not participating unless an upset occurs.

36 teams - 8 remaining Conference champs = 28 teams vying for 14 at-large spots.

You better have a great resume at 7-4 this season.

[BNATION]

Agreed but we all know if a 7-4 team gets in it will be a MVFC team. I personally think there are only 3 good teams in the MVFC this year. NDSU, Ill St. and SD. The rest have had pretty poor showings IMO.


36 teams have a chance at 8 D1 wins. Not including any teams from Pioneer, MEAC, SWAC, or NEC as they are most likely champion only league or not participating unless an upset occurs.

36 teams - 7 remaining Conference champs = 29 teams vying for 14 at-large spots.

You better have a great resume at 7-4 this season.

[Catbooster]

I'll bet there will be some 7-4 teams that make the playoffs. I don't know, but suspect that there has never been a year that some haven't since we went to 24 team playoff.

[kalm]

I think we've had this discussion about this same time every year since moving to 24 teams and every year a 7-4 or worse gets in.

Unleash the cannibals!!!

[Reign of Terrier]

I think with an exception here or there (Youngstown St.?) it’s a 8 win or go home year.

So let’s take the list and see who can get to 8:

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 3-1
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 3-0
Weber State (5-2) must go 4-0
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 3-1
Montana (5-2) must go 3-1
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 4-0

Montana State (3-4) eliminated
Idaho State (4-4) eliminated
UC Davis (3-4) eliminated
Northern Colorado (2-4) eliminated
North Dakota (2-6) eliminated
Portland State (0-7) eliminated
Cal Poly (0-7) eliminated

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 3-1
Monmouth (6-1) must go 2-2
Charleston Southern (4-3) must win BS

Presbyterian (3-4) eliminated
Gardner-Webb (1-5) eliminated
Liberty (3-4) ineligible

Colonial
James Madison (7-0) must go 1-3
Elon (6-1) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 3-1
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 3-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 3-1
Richmond (4-3) must go 4-0
Villanova (4-3) must go 4-0

Maine (3-3) eliminated
Albany (3-4) eliminated
Towson (2-5) eliminated
William & Mary (2-5) eliminated
Rhode Island (1-6) eliminated

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 4-0
NC Central (5-2) must go 4-0

Howard (4-3) eliminated
Norfolk State 3-4 eliminated
Bethune-Cookman (3-4) eliminated
Morgan State (1-6) eliminated
SC State (2-5) eliminated
Florida A&M (2-6) eliminated
Delaware State (1-6) eliminated
Savannah State (0-7) eliminated

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0) must go 1-3
South Dakota (6-1) must go 2-2
Illinois State (5-2) must go 3-1
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 4-0
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 3-1
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 4-0

Youngstown State (3-4) eliminated **
Missouri State (1-6) eliminated
Indiana State (0-7) eliminated

Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 3-1
CCSU (5-3) must go 4-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must win NEC
Sacred Heart (3-4) must win NEC

Robert Morris (2-5) eliminated
Bryant (2-5) eliminated
Wagner (2-5) eliminated

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 2-2
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 3-1
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 3-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 4-0

SE Missouri State (2-5) eliminated
Eastern Kentucky (2-5) eliminated
Murray State (2-5) eliminated
UT Martin (3-4) eliminated
Tennessee Tech (0-7) eliminated

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must win PL
Bucknell (4-3) must win PL
Lehigh (2-5) eliminated -must win PL
Lafayette (2-6) eliminated
Fordham (2-6) eliminated
Holy Cross (2-6) eliminated
Georgetown (1-6) eliminated

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must win PL
Drake (4-3) must win PL

Butler (5-3) eliminated
Jacksonville (4-3) eliminated
Valparaiso (3-4) eliminated
Marist (3-5) eliminated
Morehead State (3-5) eliminated
Dayton (3-5) eliminated
Stetson (2-6) eliminated
Davidson (2-5) eliminated

Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 2-3
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 2-2
Furman (5-3) must go 3-0
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1

Mercer (4-4) eliminated
The Citadel (4-3) eliminated
ETSU (3-4) eliminated
Chattanooga (1-7) eliminated
VMI (0-8) eliminated

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 2-2
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 3-0
McNeese (6-1) must go 2-2
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 2-2
Nicholls (5-2) must go 3-1

Stephen F Austin (3-5) eliminated
Abilene (2-6) eliminated
Incarnate Word (1-6) eliminated
Northwestern State (1-6) eliminated
Houston Baptist (1-6) eliminated
Lamar (1-6) eliminated

SWAC
Alcorn State (5-3) eliminated


** probable gets in @ 7-4

I think Furman at 7-4 gets in, depending on how good the team they beat is and what the quality of the next loss is. For instance, if they beat Samford and Samford finishes 8-3 or Western Carolina and Western finishes 9-3, while losing to one of those teams who finish 9-2/10-2 respectively and the loss is within a score, I don't see how you keep out Furman.

I think a better, more predictive measure is the 7 D1 win threshold before. 8 wins against D1 opponents in most conferences will for sure get you in with a 24 team field, but 7 will be questionable; for some reason a 7-4 team doesn't look as impressive as 8-3 even when 8-3 only has 7 D1 wins

[wcugrad95]

36 teams have a chance at 8 D1 wins. Not including any teams from Pioneer, MEAC, SWAC, or NEC as they are most likely champion only league or not participating unless an upset occurs.

36 teams - 7 remaining Conference champs = 29 teams vying for 14 at-large spots.

You better have a great resume at 7-4 this season.

So 8 of the 36 will be AQs, and Pioneer and NEC will have an AQ to round out the 10 "champions" spots. Does that mean we are actually getting down to a more realistic number of 28 teams for 14 at-large bids? Still twice as many teams as spots, but if that is how the committee will look at things it becomes a little more clear.

The magic number of 8 is possible for WCU, but that could be against 4 losses (2 FBS teams). Pairing it back down to FCS-only competition would make us 8-2 in that scenario, with a "good" win against Samford, a "good" loss against Wofford, and the other wins TBD on their "goodness". Hypothetical, what is the likelihood of us being "in" with a loss to Furman, wins against Citadel and Mercer, and a season-ending loss to North Carolina to go 8-4?

We want to win them all, but I am preparing myself that if we somehow stumble and finish 7-5 the playoffs are not going to be in our cards.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think with an exception here or there (Youngstown St.?) it’s a 8 win or go home year.

So let’s take the list and see who can get to 8:

Big Sky
Northern Arizona (5-2) must go 3-1
Eastern Washington (5-3) must go 3-0
Weber State (5-2) must go 4-0
Southern Utah (5-2) must go 3-1Montana (5-2) must go 3-1
Sacramento State (4-3) must go 4-0

Big South
Kennesaw State (6-1) must go 3-1
Monmouth (6-1) must go 2-2
Charleston Southern (4-3) must win BS

Colonial
James Madison (7-0) must go 1-3Elon (6-1) must go 2-2
Stony Brook (5-2) must go 3-1
New Hampshire (5-2) must go 3-1
Delaware (5-2) must go 3-1
Richmond (4-3) must go 4-0
Villanova (4-3) must go 4-0

MEAC
*North Carolina A&T (8-0)
Hampton (5-2) must go 4-0
NC Central (5-2) must go 4-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (7-0) must go 1-3
South Dakota (6-1) must go 2-2
Illinois State (5-2) must go 3-1
Northern Iowa (4-3) must go 4-0
South Dakota State (5-2) must go 3-1
Western Illinois (5-2) must go 3-1
Southern Illinois (4-3) must go 4-0

Youngstown State (3-4) eliminated **


Northeast
Duquesne (6-1) must go 3-1
CCSU (5-3) must go 4-0
Saint Francis (4-3) must win NEC
Sacred Heart (3-4) must win NEC

Ohio Valley
Jacksonville State (6-1) must go 2-2
Austin Peay (5-3) must go 3-1
Eastern Illinois (5-3) must go 3-1
Tennessee State (4-3) must go 4-0

Patriot
Colgate (4-4) must win PL
Bucknell (4-3) must win PL
Lehigh (2-5) eliminated -must win PL

Pioneer
San Diego (5-2) must go 3-1
Campbell (5-3) must win PL
Drake (4-3) must win PL


Southern
Wofford (6-1) must go 2-2
Western Carolina (6-2) must go 2-2
Furman (5-3) must go 3-0
Samford (5-2) must go 3-1

Southland
Central Arkansas (6-1) must go 2-2
SE Louisiana (5-3) must go 3-0
McNeese (6-1) must go 2-2
Sam Houston State (6-1) must go 2-2
Nicholls (5-2) must go 3-1

** probable gets in @ 7-4
I took out all the eliminated teams (even if I disagree with the methodology, see my prior comment), that way it's easier to process for people (including myself)

Edit: I removed the bolding from teams not facing elimination this week

[BisonTru]

Putting together a predictive bracket. I had 8 - 8 D1 or better win at larges, and 6 - 7 D1 win at larges. That left the bubble with an 8 win, 4 - 7 win teams, and 3 - 6 win teams as the first 8 out but in consideration.

Run down
At larges, in:
8 wins or better - 8
7 wins - 6

First 8, out:
8 wins - 1
7 wins - 4
6 wins - 3

[ccd494]

36 teams have a chance at 8 D1 wins. Not including any teams from Pioneer, MEAC, SWAC, or NEC as they are most likely champion only league or not participating unless an upset occurs.

36 teams - 8 remaining Conference champs = 28 teams vying for 14 at-large spots.

You better have a great resume at 7-4 this season.

What about 7-3 with a rainout?

[Reign of Terrier]

Looking at the big picture, I don't feel confident that we have a good picture of what the playoff race will look like.

Give it two more weeks and it will be a lot more easy

[Gangtackle11]

Looking at the big picture, I don't feel confident that we have a good picture of what the playoff race will look like.

Give it two more weeks and it will be a lot more easy

Each week goes by it obviously gets clearer, but it would be a boring site if we waited. xpeacex

[grizband]

Each week goes by it obviously gets clearer, but it would be a boring site if we waited. xpeacex
Haha, exactly why I created this report after week 8!