Are we allowed to say Illinois State is a good team again?

[dbackjon]

Asking for a friend

[PantherRob82]

Who freaking knows.

[WestCoastAggie]

What about Youngstown State?

[SeattleGriz]

Asking for a friend

Asking for a friend! xlolx

[grizband]

I'm not sure anyone is good at this point...

[caribbeanhen]

Yes but chase it down with a shot of Kool-Aid

[UNIFanSince1983]

Who the hell knows? If they are the SIU must be good too, and we beat them. Does that mean we have 3 good wins? Or is Youngstown not good anymore so that one doesn't count? Hell is SDSU not good anymore either?

I have no clue! Just another week in the MVFC...

[Redbird 4th & short]

regarding ISUr ... all of the above. NAU was more of fluke game. SIU was snowball effect ... I think Spack lost his team for a week, and now has them back. USD is how we viewed our team .. 15 QBHs against Streveler who played one hell of game .. spent a lot of time running for his life and taking hit after hit. But kept getting up and making plays.

regarding YSU, they are still a very good team .. prior to 5 point loss to a resurgent UNI team, they had lost to FBS Pitt by 7, NDSU by 3 on OT, and USD by 3 on road .. 3-3 with 3 high quality losses. Plus they handled SDSU and blew out 2 patsies. UNI is their only questionable loss .. that may look less questionable by week 11. YSU is still worthy of top 10, though will understandably drop with 3-4 record.

Ironically, we play at YSU next week. I think we match up very well with them. If same team that showed up yesterday, shows up saturday, we should win a lower scoring game.

p.s. SDSU is still good, just not dominant like most expected and defense is suspect.

[Penguin Nation]

regarding ISUr ... all of the above. NAU was more of fluke game. SIU was snowball effect. USD is how we viewed our team .. 15 QBHs against Streveler who played one hell of game .. spent a lot of time running for his life and taking hit after hit. But kept getting up and making plays.

regarding YSU, they are still a very good team .. prior to 5 point loss to a resurgent UNI team, they had lost to FBS Pitt by 7, NDSU by 3 on OT, and USD by 3 on road. Plus they handled SDSU and blew out 2 patsies. UNI is their only questionable loss .. that may look less questionable by week 11. YSU is still worthy of top 10, though will understandably drop with 3-4 record.

Ironically, we play at YSU next week. I think we match up very well with them. If same team that showed up yesterday, shows up saturday, we should win a lower scoring game.

After 7 games....YSU only has one non-NEC win. Rather then progress, they seem to deteriorate as the season progresses. I think I'd give ISUr the slight edge.

There are two good teams in the MVFC, two bad teams, and the rest I have no idea...they may go to Frisco or may lay an egg.

[semobison]

What about UNI? They have looked great the past two weeks beating SDSU and Y-town convincingly?

[grizband]

What about UNI? They have looked great the past two weeks beating SDSU and Y-town convincingly?
I think we can convincingly say they might be a good team...xrotatehx

[Reign of Terrier]

I have no official opinion on this (I don't follow the MVFC close enough to know how good any team is relative to the others).

But I will say Furman should be ranked because at this point the arguments are the exact same or similar for Youngstown and Illinois State being ranked, but Furman doesn't have as many losses/bad losses

[MTfan4life]

I have no official opinion on this (I don't follow the MVFC close enough to know how good any team is relative to the others).

But I will say Furman should be ranked because at this point the arguments are the exact same or similar for Youngstown and Illinois State being ranked, but Furman doesn't have as many losses/bad losses

Furman's three losses have a combined 18-3 record: NC State, Wofford, and Elon.

[WestCoastAggie]

Furman's three losses have a combined 18-3 record: NC State, Wofford, and Elon.

Those pesky computers disagree with you. xrotatehx

[UNIFanSince1983]

I have no official opinion on this (I don't follow the MVFC close enough to know how good any team is relative to the others).

But I will say Furman should be ranked because at this point the arguments are the exact same or similar for Youngstown and Illinois State being ranked, but Furman doesn't have as many losses/bad losses

As our dear friends from The Citadel would say "Furman sucks" ;)

[PantherRob82]

What about UNI? They have looked great the past two weeks beating SDSU and Y-town convincingly?

UNI seems to be the team that gets better rather than the mediocre team with a tough schedule. We will know for sure on a Saturday. I think the result against the Bison will tell us who the Panthers are.

[WeAreThePride]

UNI seems to be the team that gets better rather than the mediocre team with a tough schedule. We will know for sure on a Saturday. I think the result against the Bison will tell us who the Panthers are.
UNI always plays NDSU hard. Doesn't matter how bad they are. Both teams get it up and bring everything they have.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I have no official opinion on this (I don't follow the MVFC close enough to know how good any team is relative to the others).

But I will say Furman should be ranked because at this point the arguments are the exact same or similar for Youngstown and Illinois State being ranked, but Furman doesn't have as many losses/bad losses
your argument could be made with my ISUr, but in no way does Furman schedule or results compare to YSU ... it isn't close right now. Furman has not played 3 top 10 teams in addition to an FBS .. or to put it in perspective, their worst game is a 5 point loss at UNI - not exactly a bad loss .. all 6 other YSU games say they are top 8 team right now. Furman can not come close to saying that.

ISUr ... as i said on other thread, Dr Jeckyl and Mr Hyde ... stay tuned for more. Though I like how we match up against YSU .. even on road.

[clenz]

regarding ISUr ... all of the above. NAU was more of fluke game. SIU was snowball effect ... I think Spack lost his team for a week, and now has them back. USD is how we viewed our team .. 15 QBHs against Streveler who played one hell of game .. spent a lot of time running for his life and taking hit after hit. But kept getting up and making plays.

regarding YSU, they are still a very good team .. prior to 5 point loss to a resurgent UNI team, they had lost to FBS Pitt by 7, NDSU by 3 on OT, and USD by 3 on road .. 3-3 with 3 high quality losses. Plus they handled SDSU and blew out 2 patsies. UNI is their only questionable loss .. that may look less questionable by week 11. YSU is still worthy of top 10, though will understandably drop with 3-4 record.

Ironically, we play at YSU next week. I think we match up very well with them. If same team that showed up yesterday, shows up saturday, we should win a lower scoring game.

p.s. SDSU is still good, just not dominant like most expected and defense is suspect.

Rofl. UNI is a questionable loss right now. UNIs losses are top 10 WIU, top 10-15 SUI and top 25 FBS.

Yep. Questionable

[Reign of Terrier]

your argument could be made with my ISUr, but in no way does Furman schedule or results compare to YSU ... it isn't close right now. Furman has not played 3 top 10 teams in addition to an FBS .. or to put it in perspective, their worst game is a 5 point loss at UNI - not exactly a bad loss .. all 6 other YSU games say they are top 8 team right now. Furman can not come close to saying that.

ISUr ... as i said on other thread, Dr Jeckyl and Mr Hyde ... stay tuned for more. Though I like how we match up against YSU .. even on road.

Furman has played two top 15 teams, losing by a total of 4 points, and an FBS team.

I didn't mean to derail this thread, but my point was it's comparable;)

Strength of schedule is a necessary measure for ranking teams, but the inability to win close games can and should be held against a team, just as the ability to do so is often seen as an asset.

fans put that in their rankings calculus when evaluating games in their own conference, but they fail to do so for other conferences. I take the perspective of other fans when evaluating rankings, but we're getting to the point in the season where overall record can tell us more about team than just SOS

[Redbird 4th & short]

Those pesky computers disagree with you. xrotatehx
and does all the round and round on who beat who and by how much .. all games statistically and objectively accounted for in they ranking systems. The computer knows YSU has 3 high quality losses against very good teams compared to all other FCS teams. When you lose to top 4 team on road by 3 and a top 2 team by 3 in OT ... that is far better than beating the 60th ranked team by 4 at home .. the computers know this objectively.

Good wins and losses versus bad wins and losses .. computers do all the "round and round we go" stuff very objectively. Hell of a lot better than the subjective polls.

[Reign of Terrier]

computers calculate averages; averages give you a range of possibility and precision, but they don't give you the exact point/measurement.

Football is a weird game compared to other games because one or three bad/good plays can make a close game a blowout among pretty comparable teams. It also has a limited sample compared to other teams, so the rankings are less precise than other sports.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Furman has played two top 15 teams, losing by a total of 4 points, and an FBS team.

I didn't mean to derail this thread, but my point was it's comparable;)

Strength of schedule is a necessary measure for ranking teams, but the inability to win close games can and should be held against a team, just as the ability to do so is often seen as an asset.

fans put that in their rankings calculus when evaluating games in their own conference, but they fail to do so for other conferences. I take the perspective of other fans when evaluating rankings, but we're getting to the point in the season where overall record can tell us more about team than just SOS
Agreed, and the sum total of Furmans win and losses, reflecting those margins relative to that strength go schedule causes Massey to rank them 27 and Sagarin 23, and Massey Composite rank of 25 as of LAST week. And they barely beat Mercer (4-4) this week at home.

p.s. Massey Composite site is slow updating this week

[Reign of Terrier]

Agreed, and the sum total of Furmans win and losses, reflecting those margins relative to that strength go schedule causes Massey to rank them 27 and Sagarin 23, and Massey Composite rank of 25 as of LAST week. And they barely beat Mercer (4-4) this week at home.

p.s. Massey Composite site is slow updating this week

Ah yes, Mercer is bad because they are 4-4, but they also have lost 3 games by a total of 11 points and the other game was to Auburn.

The problem with using averages as more than just your baseline for rankings is that if everyone in a conference is held to high regard and plays each other close you quite literally cannot fall out of the rankings. The difference between the MVFC and everyone else at this point is perception more than anything.

As a baseline, I'll concede that Youngstown is probably better than a lot or most teams, but when it comes to the outcome of their accomplishments and execution, they aren't top 10.

This is getting to the point where I feel like the strength of the MVFC is an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

[UNIFanSince1983]

At some point you have to win football games. Close losses only count for so much. I mean prior to this week the 49ers were playing everyone close. Doesn't mean they were good just because they lose close to good teams.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Ah yes, Mercer is bad because they are 4-4, but they also have lost 3 games by a total of 11 points and the other game was to Auburn.

The problem with using averages as more than just your baseline for rankings is that if everyone in a conference is held to high regard and plays each other close you quite literally cannot fall out of the rankings. The difference between the MVFC and everyone else at this point is perception more than anything.

As a baseline, I'll concede that Youngstown is probably better than a lot or most teams, but when it comes to the outcome of their accomplishments and execution, they aren't top 10.

This is getting to the point where I feel like the strength of the MVFC is an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

agree with point of your 2nd paragraph .. that in the extreme, but mainly as you get towards games 9, 10, 11 ... it can become self perpetuating for dominant conferences. Doesn't make it necessarily wrong, but can become what you described. But with the balance of 3 nonconf games and 4-5 conf games to this point it is right now about as balanced as it gets .. decent sample size and nice balance of conf and nonconf. So while i agree it happens, I don't quite agree what you suggest has happened much yet .. by week 11, hard to prove how much it happens in any given year.

[Reign of Terrier]

agree with point of your 2nd paragraph .. that in the extreme, but mainly as you get towards games 9, 10, 11 ... it can become self perpetuating for dominant conferences. Doesn't make it necessarily wrong, but can become what you described. But with the balance of 3 nonconf games and 4-5 conf games to this point it is right now about as balanced as it gets .. decent sample size and nice balance of conf and nonconf. So while i agree it happens, I don't quite agree what you suggest has happened much yet .. by week 11, hard to prove how much it happens in any given year.

I think it's happening right now with the MVFC. Basically, MVFC' fans are asserting the hypothesis that "no really these teams with questionable records or losses are good so rank them favorably"

At the end of the year, that might be the case, but for right now I don't think it should be. To express a hypothetical to make a point, Western Carolina plays Furman this week. Furman will likely be ranked, but lets assume they aren't but Youngstown or some other team with 3+ losses is.

What if, hypothetically, Western wins out against everyone but UNC and beats Furman by one. Furman wins out. Any MVFC team that's beaten Youngstown gets a nice boost in the rankings (computer or otherwise) for beating Youngstown, but Western wouldn't get as much of a boost for beating a hypothetical 5-4-with-3-losses-by-5-points Furman team because they aren't ranked as high.

That may not seem like a big deal right now, but if Furman wins out as the scenario describes and Youngstown loses one or two more games, you've basically hurt Furman's playoff positioning (and transitively, Western Carolina's and maybe Wofford's) because Furman isn't optimally ranked, while you've helped everyone who has played a hypothetical 5-6 Youngstown state team (mainly the MVFC). Because the socon teams don't look as good because the computers calculate bayesianly, while voters are anchored by the current poll.

This is how bias works in polling.

[Thumper 76]

I think it's happening right now with the MVFC. Basically, MVFC' fans are asserting the hypothesis that "no really these teams with questionable records or losses are good so rank them favorably"

At the end of the year, that might be the case, but for right now I don't think it should be. To express a hypothetical to make a point, Western Carolina plays Furman this week. Furman will likely be ranked, but lets assume they aren't but Youngstown or some other team with 3+ losses is.

What if, hypothetically, Western wins out against everyone but UNC and beats Furman by one. Furman wins out. Any MVFC team that's beaten Youngstown gets a nice boost in the rankings (computer or otherwise) for beating Youngstown, but Western wouldn't get as much of a boost for beating a hypothetical 5-4-with-3-losses-by-5-points Furman team because they aren't ranked as high.

That may not seem like a big deal right now, but if Furman wins out as the scenario describes and Youngstown loses one or two more games, you've basically hurt Furman's playoff positioning (and transitively, Western Carolina's and maybe Wofford's) because Furman isn't optimally ranked, while you've helped everyone who has played a hypothetical 5-6 Youngstown state team (mainly the MVFC). Because the socon teams don't look as good because the computers calculate bayesianly, while voters are anchored by the current poll.

This is how bias works in polling.

Or, some of us have watched games of all conferences and can see that while the SoCon isn’t bad football it’s not on par with the CAA and MVFC.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[penguinpower]

YSU is playing with a backup OL and backup QB with many missing on the DL as well. They won't win. Murderers row took a toll. they are several week away from being good again. Too late. miss the playoffs

[clenz]

YSU is playing with a backup OL and backup QB with many missing on the DL as well. They won't win. Murderers row took a toll. they are several week away from being good again. Too late. miss the playoffs

UNI was without 2starting OL, lost a third during the game and lost one of the 3 best LBs in the country on the first half. Using our 4th different starting running back, without our second WR, using our 5th different defensive back field.

Wanna try again?

[WestCoastAggie]

and does all the round and round on who beat who and by how much .. all games statistically and objectively accounted for in they ranking systems. The computer knows YSU has 3 high quality losses against very good teams compared to all other FCS teams. When you lose to top 4 team on road by 3 and a top 2 team by 3 in OT ... that is far better than beating the 60th ranked team by 4 at home .. the computers know this objectively.

Good wins and losses versus bad wins and losses .. computers do all the "round and round we go" stuff very objectively. Hell of a lot better than the subjective polls.

I don't have a dog in this fight, my team is heading to Atlanta if we win out. But teams from the Big Sky, OVC, SoCon, and Southland have plenty of beef with the "objectivity" of these computer polls keeping a sub-.500 team in the top 10 of their rankings, influencing human voters and the selection committee.

At the end of the day, you gotta win your games, period.

[katss07]

I don't have a dog in this fight, my team is heading to Atlanta if we win out. But teams from the Big Sky, OVC, SoCon, and Southland have plenty of beef with the "objectivity" of these computer polls keeping a sub-.500 team in the top 10 of their rankings, influencing human voters and the selection committee.

At the end of the day, you gotta win your games, period.
I agree with this. The MVFC is the best conference clearly, but if you are under .500, you shouldn't be ranked this late in the season even if you play in a great conference.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think it's happening right now with the MVFC. Basically, MVFC' fans are asserting the hypothesis that "no really these teams with questionable records or losses are good so rank them favorably"

At the end of the year, that might be the case, but for right now I don't think it should be. To express a hypothetical to make a point, Western Carolina plays Furman this week. Furman will likely be ranked, but lets assume they aren't but Youngstown or some other team with 3+ losses is.

What if, hypothetically, Western wins out against everyone but UNC and beats Furman by one. Furman wins out. Any MVFC team that's beaten Youngstown gets a nice boost in the rankings (computer or otherwise) for beating Youngstown, but Western wouldn't get as much of a boost for beating a hypothetical 5-4-with-3-losses-by-5-points Furman team because they aren't ranked as high.

That may not seem like a big deal right now, but if Furman wins out as the scenario describes and Youngstown loses one or two more games, you've basically hurt Furman's playoff positioning (and transitively, Western Carolina's and maybe Wofford's) because Furman isn't optimally ranked, while you've helped everyone who has played a hypothetical 5-6 Youngstown state team (mainly the MVFC). Because the socon teams don't look as good because the computers calculate bayesianly, while voters are anchored by the current poll.

This is how bias works in polling.

I think we're talking about statistical ranking systems .. not subjective polling. So assuming that ..

So how did MVFC overtake Colonial in 2011 after 6+ year of Colonial dominance .. according to Massey system and Massey Composite of all polls, MVFC was #1 in 2011. By your argument, MVFC could not have been statistically predicted to over take Colonial - certainly not in 1 year. Early season polls would have carried weight of prior years .. how did MVFC do that if there is so much bias towards dominant conferences ?

Again, I agree that what you suggest happens to some degree .. I just don't think it is significant until late in season. We all start with last seasons final rankings after playoffs (ie. lot of nonconf games) And then start season with 3 more nonconf games. Now we are 4 to 5 conf games into this season, with balance of games coming out of last season's playoffs and this season split of conf and nonconf ... I think this is optimal pint in season for statstical rankings being as unbiased and objective as it gets.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't have a dog in this fight, my team is heading to Atlanta if we win out. But teams from the Big Sky, OVC, SoCon, and Southland have plenty of beef with the "objectivity" of these computer polls keeping a sub-.500 team in the top 10 of their rankings, influencing human voters and the selection committee.

At the end of the day, you gotta win your games, period.
nope, not that simple .. anyone can look at a record. We destroyed EIU. EIU hung tough with JSU and will likely finish 2nd in OVC. We could finish 5th or 6th place in MVFC .. and have beaten 2 top 10 teams. EIU beat no one good. Does OVC's 2nd place team get in over MVFC 6th place team who beat them badly ? Because you have to win period ?

Strength of schedule has to matter more than teams in weak conferences may care to admit.

[smallcollegefbfan]

All of those MVFC teams are top 25 for sure. They are just beating up on each other. Right now I have 3 MVFC teams in my top 10 and 8 total in my top 25. This week was very difficult for me to come up with a top 25 but I do feel like there are only about 35 teams who are worthy of a vote right now.

[Cocky]

nope, not that simple .. anyone can look at a record. We destroyed EIU. EIU hung tough with JSU and will likely finish 2nd in OVC. We could finish 5th or 6th place in MVFC .. and have beaten 2 top 10 teams. EIU beat no one good. Does OVC's 2nd place team get in over MVFC 6th place team who beat them badly ? Because you have to win period ?

Strength of schedule has to matter more than teams in weak conferences may care to admit.

Yeah EIU hung tough with us about like ISUb hung tough with ISUr. If you watched the game it was oblivious who was going to win, but we didnt play real well Saturday.

For the second place OVC team, personally on think AP would get a bid if they win out. EIU isnt as good as AP and doesnt need to be in the playoffs. AP isnt playoff ready either but only having one FCS loss to a most likely top 10 team will be hard to keep out.

SOS matters most in exposing your weaknesses. Playing in the OVC you have no idea on what needs corrected. Come playoff time if the opposing coach discovers your weakness your SOL and headed to the house. Being tested is more of an asset than a liability if your goal is to win championships. If your satisfied just getting in the playoffs then being in a weak conference should be your goal. Would rather stay at the house some years and play for championships than play one or two and go home most years.

[kalm]

I think it's happening right now with the MVFC. Basically, MVFC' fans are asserting the hypothesis that "no really these teams with questionable records or losses are good so rank them favorably"

At the end of the year, that might be the case, but for right now I don't think it should be. To express a hypothetical to make a point, Western Carolina plays Furman this week. Furman will likely be ranked, but lets assume they aren't but Youngstown or some other team with 3+ losses is.

What if, hypothetically, Western wins out against everyone but UNC and beats Furman by one. Furman wins out. Any MVFC team that's beaten Youngstown gets a nice boost in the rankings (computer or otherwise) for beating Youngstown, but Western wouldn't get as much of a boost for beating a hypothetical 5-4-with-3-losses-by-5-points Furman team because they aren't ranked as high.

That may not seem like a big deal right now, but if Furman wins out as the scenario describes and Youngstown loses one or two more games, you've basically hurt Furman's playoff positioning (and transitively, Western Carolina's and maybe Wofford's) because Furman isn't optimally ranked, while you've helped everyone who has played a hypothetical 5-6 Youngstown state team (mainly the MVFC). Because the socon teams don't look as good because the computers calculate bayesianly, while voters are anchored by the current poll.

This is how bias works in polling.

Please list the SoCon's 5 best OOC wins this year.

[underdawg]

As far as computer polls SIU is now rated the 10th FCS team by the latest Sagarin--that and 50 cents will get the Salukis a cup of coffee--In the MVFC we (at 4-3) still have to play USD, Youngstown, MSU and WIU--urk! I'm not sure 6-5 or even 7-4 would (or should) do it for us, no matter if we're in the top 25 of the computer polls

[semobison]

All of those MVFC teams are top 25 for sure. They are just beating up on each other. Right now I have 3 MVFC teams in my top 10 and 8 total in my top 25. This week was very difficult for me to come up with a top 25 but I do feel like there are only about 35 teams who are worthy of a vote right now.

Yup, there are 8 teams in the Valley this year capable of winning games in the playoffs but only 4 or maybe 5 will get the opportunity. Not complaining but that is the reality of playing in a good deep conference.

[Paladin1aa]

YSU has only itself to blame. The MVFC is a good league and should get 4 into the layoffs despite beating each other up. Injuries happen to all. But if you have no depth, the future is bleak And cheerleading boards won't change that.

[REALBird]

Not ready to say it yet. They can beat YSU next week, but what does that gain them? YSU is trending downward. Does beating SDSU on the road help? Yes! Could winning against WIU help, sure. But I could see Illinois State going 1-3 the rest of the way, even 0-4 and they’d be what we thought they were.

If I’m being consistent you take them week by week. They deserved to drop after NAU, drop even further after SIU. Beating the #4 team should be good for a bounce to the 18-20 range. But I’d be skeptical of giving too big of a bounce until they win again.

Next week is pivotal.

[Cocky]

Please list the SoCon's 5 best OOC wins this year.

Does any conference have 5 good ones?

[TheKingpin28]

Does any conference have 5 good ones?

NDSU:
-@EWU 40-13

USeD:
-@BGSU 35-27 (Some people think just an FBS moniker means it is a good win)

WIU:
-@NAU 38-20
-@CCU 52-10 (Some people think just an FBS moniker means it is a good win)

ISUr:
-@EIU 44-13

SDSU:
-@Montana St 31-27 (I would say no, but that is just me)

It is interesting that all of these wins were on the road for the Valley.

[ST_Lawson]

Are we good? Is anyone good? Are we all good?

WIU > NAU > ILSU > USD > WIU

I feel like we're going to be able to come up with a lot of "circles of suck" this season, even if we just limit it to within the conference.

WIU > UNI > YSU > SDSU > SIU > ILSU > USD > WIU

[Sycamore62]

EIU and ISUr had trouble with ISUb. Its ok to make family plans for Dec 2.

[Cocky]

NDSU:
-@EWU 40-13

USeD:
-@BGSU 35-27 (Some people think just an FBS moniker means it is a good win)

WIU:
-@NAU 38-20
-@CCU 52-10 (Some people think just an FBS moniker means it is a good win)

ISUr:
-@EIU 44-13

SDSU:
-@Montana St 31-27 (I would say no, but that is just me)

It is interesting that all of these wins were on the road for the Valley.

Montana State, EIU, Bowling Green and CCU would not fall in the good win category for me. To me the high water mark is the MVC and Big Sky with two each not counting FBS wins. Its not a good FBS year when a win over GSU maybe the best one.

[Professor Chaos]

Montana State, EIU, Bowling Green and CCU would not fall in the good win category for me. To me the high water mark is the MVC and Big Sky with two each not counting FBS wins. Its not a good FBS year when a win over GSU maybe the best one.
WIU beat CCU by 42 on their own field. That's the worst margin in any CCU defeat this year (including your best FBS scalp Georgia St team who only beat them by 6). If that's not an impressive win I don't know what is.

[katss07]

Montana State, EIU, Bowling Green and CCU would not fall in the good win category for me. To me the high water mark is the MVC and Big Sky with two each not counting FBS wins. Its not a good FBS year when a win over GSU maybe the best one.
Beating down Coastal on their home turf is a good win. Sure, they are a bad FBS team, but they are a decent program overall. To win the way they did, I was very impressed.

[TheKingpin28]

Montana State, EIU, Bowling Green and CCU would not fall in the good win category for me. To me the high water mark is the MVC and Big Sky with two each not counting FBS wins. Its not a good FBS year when a win over GSU maybe the best one.

I would say the Valley has 4 good OOC wins this year, but the argument for 5 could be made. WIUs curb stomping of CCU is probably the best out of all off them IMO.

[clenz]

Are we good? Is anyone good? Are we all good?

WIU > NAU > ILSU > USD > WIU

I feel like we're going to be able to come up with a lot of "circles of suck" this season, even if we just limit it to within the conference.

WIU > UNI > YSU > SDSU > SIU > ILSU > USD > WIU
I'm not willing to concede WIU over UNI. Score might say one thing, but I'm not willing to concede that

[clenz]

As far as computer polls SIU is now rated the 10th FCS team by the latest Sagarin--that and 50 cents will get the Salukis a cup of coffee--In the MVFC we (at 4-3) still have to play USD, Youngstown, MSU and WIU--urk! I'm not sure 6-5 or even 7-4 would (or should) do it for us, no matter if we're in the top 25 of the computer polls
Same basic story in Cedar Falls.

4-3/3-1 with remaining schedule of @ NDSU v USD @ MSU v ISUb

It's likely UNI finishes 6-5/5-3. Is that enough to get UNI in? Probably not. Should it? Probably not.

With USD being at home it's entirely possible UNI finishes 7-4/6-2. That, for sure, would get UNI in as that means UNI finished second in conference (in all likelyhood).

Not that it matters. UNI may finish 4-7 the way this year has gone

[Redbird 4th & short]

Same basic story in Cedar Falls.

4-3/3-1 with remaining schedule of @ NDSU v USD @ MSU v ISUb

It's likely UNI finishes 6-5/5-3. Is that enough to get UNI in? Probably not. Should it? Probably not.

With USD being at home it's entirely possible UNI finishes 7-4/6-2. That, for sure, would get UNI in as that means UNI finished second in conference (in all likelyhood).

Not that it matters. UNI may finish 4-7 the way this year has gone
any 5-3 team in MVFC, this year more than even 2014, ought to be an at large lock .. even at 6-5. Assume 4 of 24 playoff teams are autobids who don't deserve to be in playoff. That leaves the so called top 20 who truly earn their spot in the 24 team playoff. At 5-3 in MVFC, those teams have to be in top 20. Even if that mean a 6th MVFC team. Both MVFC and Colonial are stacked deep this year. Every other conference slipped this year and should have less in playoffs.

[kalm]

Does any conference have 5 good ones?

That's not what I asked. YT asserts bias due to subjective conference rankings. So let's not just look at the records and the conferences, let's drill down further and compare the actual resume's including quality wins, quality losses, bad losses etc. This is what the committee is quite good at doing for the most part and pollsters should be doing as much as possible on a weekly basis.

In his example, Furman indeed has no bad losses, losing to 3 teams who are a combined 18-2 so they should be ranked higher in the polls. But isn't that applying the same bad loss criteria being complained about with YSU?

[kalm]

any 5-3 team in MVFC, this year more than even 2014, ought to be an at large lock .. even at 6-5. Assume 4 of 24 playoff teams are autobids who don't deserve to be in playoff. That leaves the so called top 20 who truly earn their spot in the 24 team playoff. At 5-3 in MVFC, those teams have to be in top 20. Even if that mean a 6th MVFC team. Both MVFC and Colonial are stacked deep this year. Every other conference slipped this year and should have less in playoffs.

You can make a case that the Big Sky is actually up and there's a possibility where you could end up with four 8-3 or better teams and a couple of 7-4 teams with high SoS's.

[Gil Dobie]

ISUR is absolutely, possitively, maybe a good team again.

Making ISUR good again!

[ST_Lawson]

I'm not willing to concede WIU over UNI. Score might say one thing, but I'm not willing to concede that

On that day, I think we were better. Now that you have your RB back...not so much. We're pretty good against the run, but I think having Weymiller back would have made it a whole different ballgame.

[Redbird 4th & short]

ISUR is absolutely, possitively, maybe a good team again.

Making ISUR good again!
The Dr Jekyl version ? iWe are absolutely positively a good team bordering on becoming a very good team. Our OL did adequate job this week having gone back to basics .. run first, pass to keep defense honest. They did well enough at times to get our 2-headed monster backs a few holes, but the yards after contact were also off the charts ... they are both a load and can move for their size .. still a work in progress on offense with inexperienced OL and thin WR group. But I think our OC found his formula finally. Defense is capable of monster days, especially front 7.

The Mr Hyde version ? Not so much .. so we're planning to lock him away somewhere.

Redbird Nation can only hope players are locked in for good now. I will admit after Spacks weekly Thursday press conference, where he was beginning to sound like a flustered coach who may be losing the team .. but then, like Spack always manages to do, he got his team to bounce back.

[clenz]

On that day, I think we were better. Now that you have your RB back...not so much. We're pretty good against the run, but I think having Weymiller back would have made it a whole different ballgame.
UNI led 14-5 at half time
UNI led with 7 seconds left until a prevent defense prevented us from winning (which is all a prevent defense does).
Before that final drive by WIU against that prevent defense UNI had WIU at 245 yards passing.

I'm not willing to concede WIU is better

[Professor Chaos]

any 5-3 team in MVFC, this year more than even 2014, ought to be an at large lock .. even at 6-5. Assume 4 of 24 playoff teams are autobids who don't deserve to be in playoff. That leaves the so called top 20 who truly earn their spot in the 24 team playoff. At 5-3 in MVFC, those teams have to be in top 20. Even if that mean a 6th MVFC team. Both MVFC and Colonial are stacked deep this year. Every other conference slipped this year and should have less in playoffs.
Disagree. UNI at 6-5 (5-3) would be far from a lock. They're likely MVFC wins over MSU and ISUb would be added to their wins over SDSU, SIU, and YSU. They did nothing in the non-conference (only win was an OT win over Cal Poly) so they've gotta hope those trio of wins over SDSU, SIU, and YSU hold a lot of water. It's possible, YSU could win out to get to 7-4, SDSU could sneak in two of their last 4 to get to 7-4, or SIU could win 3 of their last 4 to get to 7-4 but in all those cases the bubble strengthens because those teams are clearly in. None of them are getting in at 6-5.

I think WIU would be the MVFC team with the best case to get in at 6-5 this year with non-conference convincing wins over CCU and NAU but they're 5-2 now so they'd have lost 3 of their last 4 to finish there (and they'd be 3-5 in conference) so I doubt the selection committed would look too kindly on that. But honestly I don't see any MVFC getting in at 6-5 this year. In 2016 Illinois St had a win over Northwestern pulling major weight for them and finished on a 3 game winning streak and in 2015 Western Illinois played an absolute gauntlet of a schedule and finished with a massive win over SDSU (who was top 5 going into that game) and finished with a 2 game winning streak. I don't see any MVFC teams having those arguments this year.

[clenz]

Disagree. UNI at 6-5 (5-3) would be far from a lock. They're likely MVFC wins over MSU and ISUb would be added to their wins over SDSU, SIU, and YSU. They did nothing in the non-conference (only win was an OT win over Cal Poly) so they've gotta hope those trio of wins over SDSU, SIU, and YSU hold a lot of water. It's possible, YSU could win out to get to 7-4, SDSU could sneak in two of their last 4 to get to 7-4, or SIU could win 3 of their last 4 to get to 7-4 but in all those cases the bubble strengthens because those teams are clearly in. None of them are getting in at 6-5.

I think WIU would be the MVFC team with the best case to get in at 6-5 this year with non-conference convincing wins over CCU and NAU but they're 5-2 now so they'd have lost 3 of their last 4 to finish there (and they'd be 3-5 in conference) so I doubt the selection committed would look too kindly on that. But honestly I don't see any MVFC getting in at 6-5 this year. In 2016 Illinois St had a win over Northwestern pulling major weight for them and finished on a 3 game winning streak and in 2015 Western Illinois played an absolute gauntlet of a schedule and finished with a massive win over SDSU (who was top 5 going into that game) and finished with a 2 game winning streak. I don't see any MVFC teams having those arguments this year.UNI would finish on a 2 game win streak, be 5-3 in conference play and have wins over SDSU, SIU and YSU (who could all be top 20-25 teams in conference.

See how easy that is to spin.

The reason for UNI being left out a couple years ago was sub .500 in conference play. UNI would have a similar resume but be 5-3 in conference play.

[ST_Lawson]

UNI led 14-5 at half time
UNI led with 7 seconds left until a prevent defense prevented us from winning (which is all a prevent defense does).
Before that final drive by WIU against that prevent defense UNI had WIU at 245 yards passing.

I'm not willing to concede WIU is better

We always play much better later in the game though...that's just how we roll. I was standing there with a UNI fan friend of mine at the start of halftime and he asked me what I thought of the game. I looked at the scoreboard, saw we were only down by 9, and told him that I wasn't worried at all and that we'd be leading by the end of the 3rd. I'm also willing to concede that that last TD was a fluke, so it was a much closer game than the final score indicates.

When I'm talking about a team being better than another, I'm considering everything...players, coaches, training, etc. UNI does have better talent at some positions than Western does, but we didn't make your team play that defense against us...that was UNI...probably Farley. But he's still part of "the team". He's not on the field making plays, but he decides what plays to run, and if those plays work or not largely depends on his directions.

Individual talent - sure, UNI might have the edge
Total package - at that point in time, I think Western was better, although that very well may not be the case today


I think WIU would be the MVFC team with the best case to get in at 6-5 this year with non-conference convincing wins over CCU and NAU but they're 5-2 now so they'd have lost 3 of their last 4 to finish there (and they'd be 3-5 in conference) so I doubt the selection committed would look too kindly on that. But honestly I don't see any MVFC getting in at 6-5 this year.

Yea, I think we've gotta go 2-2 at least in the last 4 to make the playoffs. 6-5 won't do it this year for any of the MVFC teams.

[neverobeyed]

I feel like we're going to be able to come up with a lot of "circles of suck" this season, even if we just limit it to within the conference.

WIU > UNI > YSU > SDSU > SIU > ILSU > USD > WIU

Or "jerk"

[ST_Lawson]

Or "jerk"

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41v1sJ6RbkL._SL500_AC_SS350_.jpg

[clenz]

We always play much better later in the game though...that's just how we roll. I was standing there with a UNI fan friend of mine at the start of halftime and he asked me what I thought of the game. I looked at the scoreboard, saw we were only down by 9, and told him that I wasn't worried at all and that we'd be leading by the end of the 3rd. I'm also willing to concede that that last TD was a fluke, so it was a much closer game than the final score indicates.

When I'm talking about a team being better than another, I'm considering everything...players, coaches, training, etc. UNI does have better talent at some positions than Western does, but we didn't make your team play that defense against us...that was UNI...probably Farley. But he's still part of "the team". He's not on the field making plays, but he decides what plays to run, and if those plays work or not largely depends on his directions.

Individual talent - sure, UNI might have the edge
Total package - at that point in time, I think Western was better, although that very well may not be the case today



Yea, I think we've gotta go 2-2 at least in the last 4 to make the playoffs. 6-5 won't do it this year for any of the MVFC teams.
UNI was also missing 2 starting OL, our top RB, starting 2 freshman at the safety spots (which we are no longer doing), and our second WR was just coming back from an ankle injury. UNI has also shifted defenses from a 4-3 to a 3-3-5 monster. Completely different right now.

I'm not going to concede WIU is better than UNI.

[Professor Chaos]

UNI would finish on a 2 game win streak, be 5-3 in conference play and have wins over SDSU, SIU and YSU (who could all be top 20-25 teams in conference.

See how easy that is to spin.

The reason for UNI being left out a couple years ago was sub .500 in conference play. UNI would have a similar resume but be 5-3 in conference play.
Oh yeah, it's possible. It's just far from a lock. And if all those teams are in the 20-25 range that means the MVFC is probably getting at least 5 and maybe 6 bids but probably only one seed which would be some pretty crazy parity.

[clenz]

Oh yeah, it's possible. It's just far from a lock. And if all those teams are in the 20-25 range that means the MVFC is probably getting at least 5 and maybe 6 bids but probably only one seed which would be some pretty crazy parity.
I'm not saying 6-5 UNI should be in, just that the case would be every bit as strong as ISUr 2 years ago sans the NW win.

Northwestern finished 6-6 that with 1 win over a team over .500

[Reign of Terrier]

That's not what I asked. YT asserts bias due to subjective conference rankings. So let's not just look at the records and the conferences, let's drill down further and compare the actual resume's including quality wins, quality losses, bad losses etc. This is what the committee is quite good at doing for the most part and pollsters should be doing as much as possible on a weekly basis.

In his example, Furman indeed has no bad losses, losing to 3 teams who are a combined 18-2 so they should be ranked higher in the polls. But isn't that applying the same bad loss criteria being complained about with YSU?

My point in the original comment was that it's both subjective. I'm not saying Furman should be ranked in the top 10, but Youngstown shouldn't be.

SOS is good and all, but teams (those being the ones who play on the field) can't help who they schedule, and again the computer rankings being averages only tell you a baseline expectation of what you can expect from a team on any given saturday.

Good conferences will, on average, play every good team competitively. Losing competitive games in a tough conference puts you ahead of inferior conferences with better records, but it's not like the MVFC is comparably better to the Big Sky/CAA/Socon as they are to the NEC.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm not saying 6-5 UNI should be in, just that the case would be every bit as strong as ISUr 2 years ago sans the NW win.

Northwestern finished 6-6 that with 1 win over a team over .500
It's still a better win than anything UNI is likely to have this year. Plus ISUr had a win over the #8 seed SDSU. It's tough to say until we get to the end of the season but I think ISUr's 6-5 resume last year has clearly superior high quality wins to anything a 6-5 UNI would be able to put together this year (unless UNI beats NDSU or USD and in that case they'd have a horrible loss to MSU or ISUb on their resume as well if they were 6-5).

[Yotes21]

I was able to watch the game yesterday after not being able to on Saturday. I will say that Ill. State had the best Dline we have played by far this season. USD looked flat from the get go and kudos to the Redbirds for fighting until the end. The MVFC is a grind and I'm not surprised the Yotes lost.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I was able to watch the game yesterday after not being able to on Saturday. I will say that Ill. State had the best Dline we have played by far this season. USD looked flat from the get go and kudos to the Redbirds for fighting until the end. The MVFC is a grind and I'm not surprised the Yotes lost.

your QB had no business finishing that game, much less throwing for 400 yards. I liked Streveler a lot before our game. But after watching him get chased and hit as much as we did, I have lot more respect for him. When he wasn't slipping away and making broken plays underneath, he was getting up hard hit after hard hit by our DL. No other QB I've ever seen in MVFC, maybe Wentz, would have stayed in the game, much less played well. We only got 2 sacks, but also had 15 QBHs in this game .. in the 6 games USD played prior, there were just 10 total QBHs. He was clearly hurting .. but he just kept getting back up and never lost his composure .. even with the 2 picks. On toughness scale of 10, he is an 11.

[ST_Lawson]

your QB had no business finishing that game, much less throwing for 400 yards. I liked Streveler a lot before our game. But after watching him get chased and hit as much as we did, I have lot more respect for him. When he wasn't slipping away and making broken plays underneath, he was getting up hard hit after hard hit by our DL. No other QB I've ever seen in MVFC, maybe Wentz, would have stayed in the game, much less played well. We only got 2 sacks, but also had 15 QBHs in this game .. in the 6 games USD played prior, there were just 10 total QBHs. He was clearly hurting .. but he just kept getting back up and never lost his composure .. even with the 2 picks. On toughness scale of 10, he is an 11.

And he's been doing that all season too...against us, against YSU, etc. I don't like what he did against us when we played them, but I can't deny that he's one of the toughest QBs I've seen in a long time.

[Professor Chaos]

And he's been doing that all season too...against us, against YSU, etc. I don't like what he did against us when we played them, but I can't deny that he's one of the toughest QBs I've seen in a long time.
He reminds me a lot of Mark Ianotti (sp?) from SIU a few years back. Guys who were not just dual threat QBs but power running dual threat QBs. I think Streveler is better this year than Ionatti ever was but very similar players nonetheless.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Are we good? Is anyone good? Are we all good?

WIU > NAU > ILSU > USD > WIU

I feel like we're going to be able to come up with a lot of "circles of suck" this season, even if we just limit it to within the conference.

WIU > UNI > YSU > SDSU > SIU > ILSU > USD > WIU

Lawson .. you raise a good point, but it's not really that complicated. By inference, you have WIU > WIU ... you can settle this easily right now .. who won your intra-squad scrimmage in August camp ???

[ST_Lawson]

Lawson .. you raise a good point, but it's not really that complicated. By inference, you have WIU > WIU ... you can settle this easily right now .. who won your intra-squad scrimmage in August camp ???

Oh that's easy...we did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Redbird 4th & short]

He reminds me a lot of Mark Ianotti (sp?) from SIU a few years back. Guys who were not just dual threat QBs but power running dual threat QBs. I think Streveler is better this year than Ionatti ever was but very similar players nonetheless.

very good comparison .. I'd give Iannotti the edge passing and Streveler the edge running .. but Streveler gets overall edge. It seems like Streveler has less weapons than Iannotti had. Plus I'm 99% certain Iannotti would not have survived what Streveler survived last Saturday.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Oh that's easy...we did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

got it, very helpful .. so that narrows things down considerably. so WIU could finish MVFC anywhere from #1 to #8 .. and by inference, so can the 7 other contending MVFC teams.

My work is done here .. and the FCS selection committee needs to send me thank you letter for clearing this all up for them in week 8.

:D

[The Yo Show]

UNI was without 2starting OL, lost a third during the game and lost one of the 3 best LBs in the country on the first half. Using our 4th different starting running back, without our second WR, using our 5th different defensive back field.

Wanna try again?

Was your point that other teams also have to deal with injuries? I don't think his point was a knock on Northern Iowa. Yes it is shoulda coulda woulda, but we did play our third string QB against as well. I mean that is pretty bad. Doesn't matter though, every team has adversity. Hell, NDSU and South Dakota State had injuries when YSU played them too. Every team has to deal with the injuries and if that is your point it is well taken. If not then I don't understand why his point isn't relevant? He's saying that YSU didn't have the confidence and or depth to keep going with the injuries we've had. That stretch is tough on any team.

[Bisonator]

xpopcornx

[clenz]

Was your point that other teams also have to deal with injuries? I don't think his point was a knock on Northern Iowa. Yes it is shoulda coulda woulda, but we did play our third string QB against as well. I mean that is pretty bad. Doesn't matter though, every team has adversity. Hell, NDSU and South Dakota State had injuries when YSU played them too. Every team has to deal with the injuries and if that is your point it is well taken. If not then I don't understand why his point isn't relevant? He's saying that YSU didn't have the confidence and or depth to keep going with the injuries we've had. That stretch is tough on any team.
Seemed like excuses and going "WE'D WIN IF WE HAD OUR PLAYAAAZZZ"

Meanwhile UNI is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-3-5 because our DL is thing from banged up injuries and players not able to go a full game in a 4-3 like had had. Meanwhile UNI was down 3 OL. Meanwhile UNI was starting it's 4th different RB. Meanwhile UNI was starting it's 4 different defensive back field combination of the season

I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it.

Good teams find ways win tight games.
Bad teams find ways to make excuses for not winning tight games.

[UNIFanSince1983]

For the record and to the point of the question. Apparently people do think ISUr is good again since they decided to rank them at 20th in the AGS poll.

[cx500d]

For the record and to the point of the question. Apparently people do think ISUr is good again since they decided to rank them at 20th in the AGS poll.


There were a few losses, that pushed some teams out, and ISUr was on the cusp

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I like their RB, he is good.

[Houndawg]

Seemed like excuses and going "WE'D WIN IF WE HAD OUR PLAYAAAZZZ"

Meanwhile UNI is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-3-5 because our DL is thing from banged up injuries and players not able to go a full game in a 4-3 like had had. Meanwhile UNI was down 3 OL. Meanwhile UNI was starting it's 4th different RB. Meanwhile UNI was starting it's 4 different defensive back field combination of the season

I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it.

Good teams find ways win tight games.
Bad teams find ways to make excuses for not winning tight games.

At least your starting d line isn't three freshmen and a sophomore banged up

[REALBird]

There were a few losses, that pushed some teams out, and ISUr was on the cusp

Which will be interesting the rest of the way. As of now the Loss on the road to NAU (now #14 in AGS poll) doesn’t look as bad. Losing at SIU may not look as good-but it’s still a MVFC opponent. Anything can happen in the MVFC.

I though we were probably ranked a bit high based on our strength of schedule. After the losses I could understand dropping into the 20-25 range.

Now the conundrum begins! We took down #4 USD and gain 4 spots. But if you win at downward trending YSU does it REALLY gain you any new voters, despite their ranking? Going to be hard to erase those early season losses in the minds of some it seems.

I think a win vs SDSU or NDSU would be the only thing that would really convince me (and others) that we’re good again.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Which will be interesting the rest of the way. As of now the Loss on the road to NAU (now #14 in AGS poll) doesn’t look as bad. Losing at SIU may not look as good-but it’s still a MVFC opponent. Anything can happen in the MVFC.

I though we were probably ranked a bit high based on our strength of schedule. After the losses I could understand dropping into the 20-25 range.

Now the conundrum begins! We took down #4 USD and gain 4 spots. But if you win at downward trending YSU does it REALLY gain you any new voters, despite their ranking? Going to be hard to erase those early season losses in the minds of some it seems.

I think a win vs SDSU or NDSU would be the only thing that would really convince me (and others) that we’re good again.

You know those 2 losses on their own wouldn't have been terrible. I think what gets people is how badly you guys lost both those games. And no beating YSU doesn't gain you anything. We know from experience. And we have losses to a Top 25 FBS. A top 15-25 FCS team. And a Top 10-15 FCS team. None of which are looking like bad losses.