Furman at Western Carolina

[The Cats]

Its Homecoming for the Catamounts, so it should be a packed house in Whitmire. Cats have won 6 of last 7 (overtime loss to Wofford 2 weeks ago), Furman has won 5 straight. Cats should move up in the polls (currently 19/21), the Paladins may enter top 25 polls this week.

In Cullowhee it's called "Battle for Purple Supremacy" -

Thoughts.......

[woffordgrad94]

Should be a good one. Too hot teams going head to head. I think it will be a wild and crazy game with lots of scoring. I pick FU to win 39-38 as this time they get that two point conversion. :)

[PaladinFan]

Two similar teams.

WCU struggled a bunch stopping Furman’s Kealand Dirks last season. I’d expect to see a heavy dose of him next Saturday. Furman has a unique offense, but they are going to pound the fullback at you 35-40 times.

[youcanbankit]

Its Homecoming for the Catamounts, so it should be a packed house in Whitmire. Cats have won 6 of last 7 (overtime loss to Wofford 2 weeks ago), Furman has won 5 straight. Cats should move up in the polls (currently 19/21), the Paladins may enter top 25 polls this week.

In Cullowhee it's called "Battle for Purple Supremacy" -

Thoughts.......

WCU has a good team but definitely beatable. We Samford just made horrible play calls and audibles that killed us at the end of the game. Prepare yourself for some home cooking from the refs though. It was really bad.

Furman wins by a field goal.

[ElCid]

What is status of Newsome?

[PaladinFan]

WCU has a good team but definitely beatable. We Samford just made horrible play calls and audibles that killed us at the end of the game. Prepare yourself for some home cooking from the refs though. It was really bad.

Furman wins by a field goal.

The refs are SoCon refs. This isn’t high school football. There are good calls and bad calls, but there isn’t home cooking.

[wcugrad95]

Regarding the refs - I agree that they get plenty of calls wrong, and every team that loses in this conference seems to whine about it (WCU included). Just like WCU at Wofford, we shouldn't have put ourselves in the position to need a perfect call on a close play, but that single call did not decide the game. Wofford had 2 really close calls yesterday that in my opinion were correct (at least per the letter of the rules), and those were critical to the game. Sometimes you get a break, and sometimes you don't. As for Western's home-cooking, who leads the league in penalties? I'll tell you that it is the Catamounts and all of our paid-off refs :)

[Smitty]

What is status of Newsome?

Hopefully he will be back this week, he was dressed for the game but didn't play. He had a hamstring issue earlier during the year but I think the coaches have been very careful considering we don't have a bye week this year.

[tenNesseeCat]

This should be one heck of a game and atmosphere. I can't wait to be crossing newfound gap, and headed deep into catamount country saturday morning!!! Hopefully we have good weather for some great tailgating!

How has Furman traveled this year? Can we expect a good crowd in Cullowhee from the quickly revived paladins?

[wcugrad95]

In a big game for Furman's homecoming yesterday, I think I saw they drew 8100. I would expect that their faithful understand how big this game is and will come to the game given the relative proximity, but I would not expect a large Furman contingency. I do expect a huge Catamount crowd - heck we get 9-10k when we aren't good so I would hope 12k+ should be there for this one.

[gofurman]

What is status of Newsome?

Any other WCU players out other than maybe Newsome? We are down two starting LBs, a starting CB, and a tailback. Though starting tailback is fine I think

[wcugrad95]

Connell Young is a converted RB who has been playing WR. He is too good an athlete not to find a way to get him in games, but he has been hampered for basically the same time Newsome has. Jordan Mathis has played well in that spot and has been a good receiver for us, but with Young we have more of a threat running a new wrinkle with an effective option play (Mathis has been good at that, but Young was a stud HS running back and can produce a game-changing play if given chances). We have not been at full-strength on offense since the Samford game, but all signs appear to point to the coaches having been conservative with bringing those guys back and targeting this late-season run of games for their return. Adams has shaken-off some extra hits that he has had to take shouldering the load of the offense the past 3 weeks, but he has not missed any plays. Nobody knows for sure, but I expect at least our 2-deep to be posted with all the typical starters listed other than our TE Sexton and Payne. Sexton missed the first 3 or 4 games due to a suspension, and is now injured. But we have played the bulk of the season with other guys at TE doing well.

[PaladinFan]

In a big game for Furman's homecoming yesterday, I think I saw they drew 8100. I would expect that their faithful understand how big this game is and will come to the game given the relative proximity, but I would not expect a large Furman contingency. I do expect a huge Catamount crowd - heck we get 9-10k when we aren't good so I would hope 12k+ should be there for this one.

Some discussion of that on our forum. Most seemed to think that the crowd was larger than was announced.

It'll probably take a year or two of winning before you can win some of those fans back.

[wcugrad95]

The crowds at nearly all college games is approaching an epidemic. My oldest daughter attends FAU, and I was at their game last night. The Owls have set multiple offensive records this season, and set a CUSA record with 804 yards offense last night - by far the most impressive offensive display I have ever witnessed in person. The announced crowd was something like 13,700 and I bet there were really only about 8k or less actually in the stands (in a 30k stadium for homecoming). WCU has honestly had an amazing fan base and home attendance given how long we have been mediocre to down right awful - we get 8-10k even when we stink. I would expect close to a full-house on Saturday - but we'll still have an exodus of students after halftime just like everybody else does. Should be as an exciting of a SoCon atmosphere as you can get for the start of the game.

[PaladinFan]

The crowds at nearly all college games is approaching an epidemic. My oldest daughter attends FAU, and I was at their game last night. The Owls have set multiple offensive records this season, and set a CUSA record with 804 yards offense last night - by far the most impressive offensive display I have ever witnessed in person. The announced crowd was something like 13,700 and I bet there were really only about 8k or less actually in the stands (in a 30k stadium for homecoming). WCU has honestly had an amazing fan base and home attendance given how long we have been mediocre to down right awful - we get 8-10k even when we stink. I would expect close to a full-house on Saturday - but we'll still have an exodus of students after halftime just like everybody else does. Should be as an exciting of a SoCon atmosphere as you can get for the start of the game.

I think Furman will get a lot of fans back.

Win or lose, this new (old) brand of Furman football is fun to watch. The team is as physical as any group in the SoCon. They fly around the field on defense and have a punishing ground game supplementing a big play passing attack. You can sell fans on that sort of football.

[FUGameBreaker]

Man oh man, this is gonna be a good one! Already got my 4 tix for my gang, can't wait xthumbsupx

[The Cats]

So, how many FU fans will be in Cullowhee?

[Schism55]

The crowds at nearly all college games is approaching an epidemic. My oldest daughter attends FAU, and I was at their game last night. The Owls have set multiple offensive records this season, and set a CUSA record with 804 yards offense last night - by far the most impressive offensive display I have ever witnessed in person. The announced crowd was something like 13,700 and I bet there were really only about 8k or less actually in the stands (in a 30k stadium for homecoming). WCU has honestly had an amazing fan base and home attendance given how long we have been mediocre to down right awful - we get 8-10k even when we stink. I would expect close to a full-house on Saturday - but we'll still have an exodus of students after halftime just like everybody else does. Should be as an exciting of a SoCon atmosphere as you can get for the start of the game.
Would wager a lot that is in part due to them having a reprehensible scumbag as the head coach xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

The difference between these two teams this year and last boils down to running the football. As I discussed in another thread, Furman is running the ball about 20 times more per game this year than last and passing the ball about 16 times per game less.

Western Carolina is rushing the ball about 1 yard per carry better this year than last year and they're calling about 11 more run plays a game than last year. Both teams are running more plays than they did last year (about 5 more).

All of these factors converge on the indication that both teams are more in control of games than last year and more efficient when they have the ball. They're the top 2 in the socon when it comes to offense by the standard of scoring when they have the ball.

The big difference will be defense. Western Carolina is measurably (if only marginally better) at getting teams off the field by the standard of percentage of scoring possessions given up. Furman is better at stopping the run and Western has a strong pass defense, holding their opponents to less than 50% completion percentage (Furman is second best in the conference in that category).

It'll be a good game; obviously the game of the week. I think both teams have question marks in terms of defense, which is not good for either because they are the best offenses in the conference.

[FurmanWins!!]

2 really good QB's in this one
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/individual/8

P.J. Blazejowski (FU)
2nd nationally in passing efficiency

Tyrie Adams (WCU)
31st nationally in passing efficiency

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Blazejowski is a big part of why Furman is good this year. I don't think their offense will be as good without him next year. It'll obviously be really good, but Blazejowski is just something special.

[PaladinFan]

I think Blazejowski is a big part of why Furman is good this year. I don't think their offense will be as good without him next year. It'll obviously be really good, but Blazejowski is just something special.

Blazejowski has been marvelous most of the year. He’s a valuable player, but he is certainly not a one man band out there.

We’ve seen a good bit of the junior backup Harris Roberts this season. He’s done well in a reserve role, though there are many that think the heir apparent is Jemar Lincoln, a freshman. Furman also has a current verbal commit from Hayden Mann, a really impressive HS QB just recently offered by James Madison. So, I hope we can hold on to him.

In my opinion, the concerning thing for SoCon teams shoudl be that Furman hasn’t even been able to fully recruit the personnel to run either their offensive or defensive systems yet.

[FUGameBreaker]

Our administration decided a year or two ago to start only counting butts in seats and not total tickets sold like some other teams in the SoCon, we have a good many older fans that still buy season tickets in the reserved sections that are still not coming to games, I expect this to change in the next year or two.

We will bring a really good crowd at WCU next saturday, hoping for a great game!

[wcugrad95]

I can't say this with 100% certainty, but I have read WCU has done the same and we count actual tickets scanned at the entrances. True or not, just basing it on what I see in person in Cullowhee and the handful of venues I have been to in the last several years and on what I see in TV coverage, WCU and Mercer seem to have the most butts in seats at SoCon games. ETSU also fills in their new stadium as well (but smaller venue). I have been in Furman's stadium when 15k were normal (I actually played at Furman for a season in 1990). I expect that to be coming back around under Coach Hendrix.

That all being said, I expect an actual crowd of 13k or more for this game. I think capacity is just under 14k. Biggest crowds in history have been over 15k back when App State came to town.

[FUGameBreaker]

Its Homecoming for the Catamounts, so it should be a packed house in Whitmire. Cats have won 6 of last 7 (overtime loss to Wofford 2 weeks ago), Furman has won 5 straight. Cats should move up in the polls (currently 19/21), the Paladins may enter top 25 polls this week.

In Cullowhee it's called "Battle for Purple Supremacy" -

Thoughts.......




"Battle for Purple Supremacy"

Love it! xthumbsupx

[FurmanWins!!]

P.J. Blazejowski
Ranked 2nd nationally in passing efficiency
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/individual/8


National 3rd Down Conversion Pct
FU (5th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/699
National 4th Down Conversion Pct
FU (6th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/700
National Fewest Penalties Per Game
FU (3rd) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/697
National First Downs Offense
FU (7th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/693
National Rushing Offense
FU (12th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/23
National Scoring Offense
FU (16th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/27
National Fewest Sacks Allowed
FU (5th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/468
National Team Sacks
FU (19th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/466

[wcugrad95]

P.J. Blazejowski
Ranked 2nd nationally in passing efficiency
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/individual/8


National 3rd Down Conversion Pct
FU (5th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/699
National 4th Down Conversion Pct
FU (6th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/700
National Fewest Penalties Per Game
FU (3rd) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/697
National First Downs Offense
FU (7th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/693
National Rushing Offense
FU (12th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/23
National Scoring Offense
FU (16th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/27
National Fewest Sacks Allowed
FU (5th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/468
National Team Sacks
FU (19th) http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/466

I will pick at a few of these (of course the ones that favor WCU):
National Rushing offense - Furman is 12th, but WCU is 8th
National First downs - the teams are basically tied with Furman at 7th and WCU tied for 5th (but only 1 first down difference)
National Scoring offense - Furman is 16th but WCU is 8th
Others:
Total offense - Furman ranks 32nd and WCU is 12th
Scoring defense - Furman gives up 25.5 and WCU gives up 22.3 (both effected by an FBS game where we gave up 40+ each)
Total defense - Furman gives up 380 yards per game and WCU gives up 356

I don't know where to find Furman's stat on this, but our defense has been responsible for 3 TDs this season to rank us tied for 9th nationally. We had 2 against UTC and 1 against ETSU, and then we had a blocked punt returned for another score against the Bucs that I would consider a defensive TD (but the stats don't). We have also set our offense up in the red zone a couple of other times. Having that happen in a game like this could be huge for either team.

For the concerning things as a WCU fan, the 3rd down conversion rate is what scares me the most. If we struggle to get Furman off the field it can become a very long day. The penalties are another big difference, and if WCU makes bonehead plays or has long TDs called back (it has happened multiple times), that can also be a huge difference. We will probably give up a few sacks, primarily because the nature of our passing game and Adams wanting to make a play sometimes rather than throwing the ball away. But we also are not too far behind FU in sacks by our defense - we are way down at 41st, but in reality WCU only has 4 fewer on the season. And in any football game, you can't turn the ball over against even a decent football team and expect good things. So if there is a significant difference the winner will probably be the winner of that stat. Western has turned the ball over more times than Furman, but we are an opportunistic defense and have created 15 turnovers compared to 13 for Furman. For the season, turnover margin is Furman at +4 and WCU at +3.

All-in-all, you can find a ton of stats that say this should be a good one.

[PaladinFan]

I think Furman matches up well with WCU.

Offensively, WCU is going to try and establish a running game. That’s something the Furman defense has defended very well this season. It will be interesting to see whether the Catamounts try to attack the Paladins in the middle of the field, or try to hit the edges like Mercer did.

If you look at last year’s game, Furman just played a more physical game than WCU did. I know WCU has changed coordinators and is playing much better defensively, but the Paladin offense creates matchup problems for defense. They are committed to battering the ball inside with a rotation of three big running running backs.

Mercer has a good defense, but you could see them begin to slow down after four quarters of constant pounding by Furman’s running game. It is hard to commit too many men to the box because Furman has a good corps of receivers, a savvy QB, and big play potential.

[tenNesseeCat]

I think Furman matches up well with WCU.

Offensively, WCU is going to try and establish a running game. That’s something the Furman defense has defended very well this season. It will be interesting to see whether the Catamounts try to attack the Paladins in the middle of the field, or try to hit the edges like Mercer did.

If you look at last year’s game, Furman just played a more physical game than WCU did. I know WCU has changed coordinators and is playing much better defensively, but the Paladin offense creates matchup problems for defense. They are committed to battering the ball inside with a rotation of three big running running backs.

Mercer has a good defense, but you could see them begin to slow down after four quarters of constant pounding by Furman’s running game. It is hard to commit too many men to the box because Furman has a good corps of receivers, a savvy QB, and big play potential.

Sounds a lot like WCU, except we don't have huge backs. Like so many teams now, lots of RPO for Adams. We like to get stuff inside all we can, but Adams and co. will test the outside as well. I do worry about the size of Furman's backs, and their ability for the long pass. I like our ability to bust a long run at any point, mixed with our deep threat as well. I think this game will come down to which ever D can get TO's and\or score, and get some 3 and outs.

[walliver]

I'm not big on statistics since every game is a unique situation in itself. Furman's stats look good, but they have a back-heavy schedule. Furman seems to be peaking and Western seems to have lost a step lately, I expect Furman to win in a 2 score game, but not a blow-out. Although I would like the two teams to play a shootout for tie-breaker purposes, I think we will actually get a 31-17 result.

[PaladinFan]

Sounds a lot like WCU, except we don't have huge backs. Like so many teams now, lots of RPO for Adams. We like to get stuff inside all we can, but Adams and co. will test the outside as well. I do worry about the size of Furman's backs, and their ability for the long pass. I like our ability to bust a long run at any point, mixed with our deep threat as well. I think this game will come down to which ever D can get TO's and\or score, and get some 3 and outs.

Furman primarily uses two fullbacks. Kealand Dirks is 6'0 244. Antonio Wilcox is 6'2 235. You may occasionally see Ridge Gibson carry the ball, who is 5'11 216 pounds. He is more of a traditional blocking fullback, though.

The last few weeks, Furman has run Dirks and Wilcox probably 35-40 times a game. Nothing fancy about how they use them. Straight up the gut. Both are punishing runners, though Dirks is a bit shiftier despite his size. Wilcox is not going to make a lot of guys miss, but Furman uses him a good bit in the passing game too. He's a very good open field runner and a tough hombre to bring down.

Furman is committed to battering the ball in the middle of the field. They don't run as much triple option as, say, Wofford or the Citadel. Most of their option plays are load option type of runs without the fullback handoff. Blazejowski is a savvy runner who can tuck into a crease and pick up a few yards. Darius Morehead is the tailback and might be the fastest player in the SoCon. From what I can tell, he's the guy most defenses are trying to keep from beating them.

The complexity for most defenses is handling Furman's constant barrage in the middle of the field while protecting the edge and staying with the receivers.

[wcugrad95]

One metric I know both schools agree on - winning more games is a heckuva lot better than losing. These programs were picked to be down around 5th, 6th, or even 7th depending on what pre-season poll you look at. Western is looking at having its third 7+ win season in the last 4, and that is not a "normal" WCU stat. Furman would appear to be ahead of schedule under Hendrix, and have underclassmen (lots of Freshman) all over the field. I think both programs feel excited about their coaches and talent (and ability to recruit), so this could be the start of something good.

[Terrier19]

Excited for this one....will be a great game. 2 really good teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think this game is going to be a one score game in the 30s. I think the advantage is to Furman, but I'm rooting for Western just because I don't want to see Furman again this year.

[PaladinFan]

I think this game is going to be a one score game in the 30s. I think the advantage is to Furman, but I'm rooting for Western just because I don't want to see Furman again this year.

I imagine so. The only teams to keep Furman out of the 30s this year are Wofford, NC State, and Mercer. WCU's defense is improved, but I don't think they are in with that group.

[wcugrad95]

I think WCU's defense is probably underrated (that is pretty shocking for me to say given our recent history), but like many teams who want to go fast, we can sometimes put our D at a disadvantage with some quick 3-and-outs on offense. The key against Furman is going to be the Cats either sustaining some drives OR hitting several big plays on offense, and getting off the field on 3rd downs. Against the top 3rd and 4th down conversion team in the conference, that is a tall-order to be sure. If both teams show up and play well and we get what is expected, I agree that the teams will score in the 30s and this will be a seriously entertaining game to watch.

[PaladinFan]

I think WCU's defense is probably underrated (that is pretty shocking for me to say given our recent history), but like many teams who want to go fast, we can sometimes put our D at a disadvantage with some quick 3-and-outs on offense. The key against Furman is going to be the Cats either sustaining some drives OR hitting several big plays on offense, and getting off the field on 3rd downs. Against the top 3rd and 4th down conversion team in the conference, that is a tall-order to be sure. If both teams show up and play well and we get what is expected, I agree that the teams will score in the 30s and this will be a seriously entertaining game to watch.

3rd downs are really where Furman does business.

Furman is top 5 in the FCS in 3rd down conversion percentage. They were 7 of 15 on third down against Mercer and 4 of 4 on 4th down. That's a 57% conversion rate, which you'll take every game.

Hendrix has demonstrated that he is far less conservative than his predecessors. He has no issue going for it on 4th down.

[Reign of Terrier]

I imagine so. The only teams to keep Furman out of the 30s this year are Wofford, NC State, and Mercer. WCU's defense is improved, but I don't think they are in with that group.

I don't think Western will give up 40 to Furman, and I do think their defense is improved, but what keeps Furman below 40 or even 30 will be their style of play, grinding out possessions.

If I were Furman, I would be concerned about defense. Mercer had over 400 yards of offense against them. Mercer's QB is definitely improving over the course of the year, but Furman also has the second worst pass defense in the conference. Mercer has not had the strongest year offensively, and they outgained Furman. Now admittedly, Mercer has one of the strongest (if not the strongest) defense in the Socon, but 400 yards is still concerning.

Though Western likes to run the ball (their offensive philosophy is the closest thing to what Baylor ran under Briles a few years ago), they can pass it when they need to. the key will be how well they take care of the ball.

I would be surprised if Furman rushed for less than 4 yards a carry, but I would be equally surprised if Furman held Western below 28 without having a 10 minute + TOP advantage

[wcugrad95]

The 3rd down conversions for Furman are outrageous at .509 on the season (you get a first down MORE than every other time). WCU is not awful, at .439. The 3rd down defense for Furman gives up 1st downs .362 of the time and WCU gives up .344. The 3rd down defense will probably surprise a lot of people - Citadel is the only SoCon team (at least per the NCAA stats) that have a better 3rd down percentage defensive rate than WCU. I was actually shocked at that. The other strong defenses mentioned like Wofford (.435) and Mercer (.379) are worse than either Furman or WCU at that particular stat, and don't really give up a ton fewer points (1 point differential with Wofford and WCU). I think Mercer has a very good defense, but their overall numbers are probably going to look a lot different after they play Samford, WCU, and Alabama in their last 3 games. Doesn't change that they are good (they came up with 5 TOs against Auburn and held them to 24 points), but if those 3 teams all score around 28 like Furman did then Mercer's stats will even out and make their numbers look a lot more like the rest of the SoCon teams.

As several others have said, stats don't really mean anything come game time. I'd rather score 1 more point than you than beat you on all the stat lines. If either team is not ready, or if they turn the ball over a bunch, this could be a blow-out. I don't expect that, though. I am going to guess a very WCU vs Samford like game that could come down to the last team with the ball.

[Reign of Terrier]

From a raw points and yardage perspective, Furman's offense is definitely inflated/minutely overrated, because of their competition.

But from a consistency and efficiency standard (scoring on over 50% of their possessions and over 50% on third downs), they are just as good as advertised.

If you've followed my posting over the last month, you'll know I think the latter stats are more predictive of how "good" a team's offense/defense is than the former.

So as much as I agree they definitely benefited statistically from playing ETSU, Chattanooga and VMI, it's definitely a stretch to call them overrated without several caveats that make the original claim of overrated-ness irrelevant or falsexnodx

[wcugrad95]

From a raw points and yardage perspective, Furman's offense is definitely inflated/minutely overrated, because of their competition.

But from a consistency and efficiency standard (scoring on over 50% of their possessions and over 50% on third downs), they are just as good as advertised.

If you've followed my posting over the last month, you'll know I think the latter stats are more predictive of how "good" a team's offense/defense is than the former.

So as much as I agree they definitely benefited statistically from playing ETSU, Chattanooga and VMI, it's definitely a stretch to call them overrated without several caveats that make the original claim of overrated-ness irrelevant or falsexnodx

Not sure if that was aimed at me, as I was in no way saying Furman's offense is overrated. I agree that their efficiency is incredible, and I think they are going to generate yards and points against anybody. The only thing I pointed out was that statistically the WCU defense is probably "sneaky-better" than most people would have guessed and is underrated.

[Purpleglasses]

I don't think Western will give up 40 to Furman, and I do think their defense is improved, but what keeps Furman below 40 or even 30 will be their style of play, grinding out possessions.

If I were Furman, I would be concerned about defense. Mercer had over 400 yards of offense against them. Mercer's QB is definitely improving over the course of the year, but Furman also has the second worst pass defense in the conference. Mercer has not had the strongest year offensively, and they outgained Furman. Now admittedly, Mercer has one of the strongest (if not the strongest) defense in the Socon, but 400 yards is still concerning.

Though Western likes to run the ball (their offensive philosophy is the closest thing to what Baylor ran under Briles a few years ago), they can pass it when they need to. the key will be how well they take care of the ball.

I would be surprised if Furman rushed for less than 4 yards a carry, but I would be equally surprised if Furman held Western below 28 without having a 10 minute + TOP advantage

Mercer had 400 yards of Offense, but of that 400. there were 2 big run plays in the first half, and a prevent Defense final drive all totaling about 100 yards. Do not read too much into that number at all.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not sure if that was aimed at me, as I was in no way saying Furman's offense is overrated. I agree that their efficiency is incredible, and I think they are going to generate yards and points against anybody. The only thing I pointed out was that statistically the WCU defense is probably "sneaky-better" than most people would have guessed and is underrated.

Western's defense is complicated to figure out. They get teams off the field about 77% of the time, which is by all measure better than any in the Socon (including Mercer, Wofford and Samford).

Their pass defense is pretty phenomenal, holding other teams to sub-50% completion percentage, which is about 7% better than second place team Samford and lowest in the conference when it comes to yards per attempt defensively.

The weakness on Western's defense is run defense, allowing 4.4 yard per carry, which is in the neighborhood of UTC, ETSU, Samford (who played UGA, Citadel, Kennesaw, Western and Wofford who will all have above-average YPC), and VMI. Granted, they are a lot better than they were last year, on net allowing about 1.6 ypc less than last year, but it's still the clearest problem thus far.

The above paragraph is why I think Furman has the advantage (even though I'm not rooting for them). Western has seen clear improvement on both sides of the ball in the trenches, but I don't see enough improvement to offset Furman's advantages and statistical trends this far. If Western wins the turnover battle, it's going to be a different story, but otherwise I think Furman's best defense will be staying on the field, keeping Western's offense on the sideline.

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/Furman_Strength/status/922405937427738624

[PaladinNation]

Western's defense is complicated to figure out. They get teams off the field about 77% of the time, which is by all measure better than any in the Socon (including Mercer, Wofford and Samford).

Their pass defense is pretty phenomenal, holding other teams to sub-50% completion percentage, which is about 7% better than second place team Samford and lowest in the conference when it comes to yards per attempt defensively.

The weakness on Western's defense is run defense, allowing 4.4 yard per carry, which is in the neighborhood of UTC, ETSU, Samford (who played UGA, Citadel, Kennesaw, Western and Wofford who will all have above-average YPC), and VMI. Granted, they are a lot better than they were last year, on net allowing about 1.6 ypc less than last year, but it's still the clearest problem thus far.

The above paragraph is why I think Furman has the advantage (even though I'm not rooting for them). Western has seen clear improvement on both sides of the ball in the trenches, but I don't see enough improvement to offset Furman's advantages and statistical trends this far. If Western wins the turnover battle, it's going to be a different story, but otherwise I think Furman's best defense will be staying on the field, keeping Western's offense on the sideline.


For two weeks now Furman has decided to up the physical play on offense. Furman trotted out the I formation for the first time against Mercer. Nothing fancy - and you could say on the 4-4 4th down conversions, it was old-school, we're not going to run anything fancy, here we come it's up to you to stop it. That takes some guts and confidence, and that game was a war in the trenches.

Furman and Wofford are starting to look very similar in many ways, dive, dive, dive, over the top, pitch to the corner. The coaches are patient and stick to the plan - we might not think its exciting at times but it seems to have a purpose. All that said Furman has been very conservative with its dynamic weapons… Gordon and Morehead, Morehead had only 5 carries against Mercer for 51 yards (10.2 ypr) and Gordon had 6 receptions for 50 yards (8.3 ypc).

To beat Western, Citadel and Samford Furman IMO will need to work them back into larger roles. We've played the last two games with Gordon as a decoy and Morehead as the only tailback (Luke and Wynn have not played a snap at TB in two weeks).

Personally,I think the WCU/FU matchup to watch will be Furman's young rotation of defensive linemen. Reid and Okonya Jr, Tibbs,-Hanff-Washington SO, Stokes-Lawrence-Vann-Seabrook FR --- can they get pressure and contain Adams. They all have high-speed engines and play physical and really got after the Mercer QB. Tyrie Adams is a great athlete, elusive, and will be the biggest QB challenge the Dins have faced. I would expect him to get off some big runs early until Furman makes adjustments to his abilities. Going to be a fun game to watch.

[AppApp]

Might have to make it over to watch this one

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman and Samford have the hardest path to the playoffs/conference title; All of Furman's opponents have the capability to exploit a weakness or match a strength they have (Citadel will be able to reproduce their offense better than any team and they have the best run defense in the conference; Samford with pass defense; Western with overall offense). Samford has to prove they can beat a team that has both balance and decency on offense that isn't an option team.

[PaladinFan]

Furman and Samford have the hardest path to the playoffs/conference title; All of Furman's opponents have the capability to exploit a weakness or match a strength they have (Citadel will be able to reproduce their offense better than any team and they have the best run defense in the conference; Samford with pass defense; Western with overall offense). Samford has to prove they can beat a team that has both balance and decency on offense that isn't an option team.

Furman's path is largely the same as everyone else's. They have to play the same teams.

The road isn't going to be simple, but Furman is playing with no pressure. They weren't supposed to be this good. Sure, the remaining teams have their advantages, but Furman also has theirs as well.

[FUGameBreaker]

WCU coming in at #11 in the AGS poll, obviously going to take a tough road win Saturday for the Paladins to finally get ranked

[FurmanWins!!]

Sagarin thinks it will be close xnodx


22 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.50 47.15 ( 23) TEAMS= 9 48.70 ( 23)
College Football 2017 through games of October 21 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.18] [ 2.18] [ 2.18] [ 2.18]
117 Samford AA = 57.67 5 2 52.83( 138) 0 1 | 0 1 | 57.05 118 | 57.92 117 | 60.87 100
122 Wofford AA = 56.30 6 1 49.03( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.85 128 | 59.95 104 | 60.78 101
128 Furman AA = 55.13 5 3 47.48( 168) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.21 125 | 53.02 136 | 56.67 121
133 Mercer AA = 53.76 4 4 45.10( 181) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.60 129 | 50.96 148 | 51.20 148
139 Western Carolina AA = 53.08 6 2 40.52( 207) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.08 139 | 51.24 147 | 54.83 131
147 The Citadel AA = 51.23 4 3 47.39( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.26 144 | 52.39 139 | 49.05 160
188 Chattanooga AA = 41.10 1 7 52.25( 145) 0 0 | 0 1 | 41.56 187 | 41.80 185 | 36.25 204
201 East Tennessee State AA = 37.23 3 4 52.95( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.85 202 | 36.99 205 | 39.32 191
243 VMI AA = 18.86 0 8 51.56( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 18.20 244 | 21.05 240 | 19.54 244

[wcugrad95]

AGS seems to have the 3 ranked SoCon teams bunched together like they should be (unlike some of the other jokes... I mean polls). Furman is a win away from getting into the rankings, 2 wins from a probable playoff spot, and 3 wins from I don't know how high. But the same can be said for the other SoCon teams already in the polls - a 6-2 conference record is strong by whichever team gets there. And the crazy thing is we all play each other. So it gets said all the time, but for the SoCon teams the playoffs have already started.

[Catamount87]

Western's defense is complicated to figure out. They get teams off the field about 77% of the time, which is by all measure better than any in the Socon (including Mercer, Wofford and Samford).

Their pass defense is pretty phenomenal, holding other teams to sub-50% completion percentage, which is about 7% better than second place team Samford and lowest in the conference when it comes to yards per attempt defensively.

The weakness on Western's defense is run defense, allowing 4.4 yard per carry, which is in the neighborhood of UTC, ETSU, Samford (who played UGA, Citadel, Kennesaw, Western and Wofford who will all have above-average YPC), and VMI. Granted, they are a lot better than they were last year, on net allowing about 1.6 ypc less than last year, but it's still the clearest problem thus far.

The above paragraph is why I think Furman has the advantage (even though I'm not rooting for them). Western has seen clear improvement on both sides of the ball in the trenches, but I don't see enough improvement to offset Furman's advantages and statistical trends this far. If Western wins the turnover battle, it's going to be a different story, but otherwise I think Furman's best defense will be staying on the field, keeping Western's offense on the sideline.

I think a lot of the oddity there is in part due to the amount we blitz. That leaves holes for RBs to exploit and forces our DBs to make some really fast reads then adjust. That extra 1/2 sec or so means a couple more yards. We also don't wrap up well, way, way, way too much hitting but not really tackling. It's almost as if the guys are going after the "BIG" hit to tackle rather than using their arms as much as the hit.

Now on the rankings subject. IMHO, AGS has all three of the SoCon teams too high. I think we all are more like a 14-16 or so with Furman not to far behind.

[PaladinFan]

I think a lot of the oddity there is in part due to the amount we blitz. That leaves holes for RBs to exploit and forces our DBs to make some really fast reads then adjust. That extra 1/2 sec or so means a couple more yards. We also don't wrap up well, way, way, way too much hitting but not really tackling. It's almost as if the guys are going after the "BIG" hit to tackle rather than using their arms as much as the hit.

Now on the rankings subject. IMHO, AGS has all three of the SoCon teams too high. I think we all are more like a 14-16 or so with Furman not to far behind.

I'd like to think they'll have to get that fixed before this weekend.

Furman hasn't surrendered a sack since they played Colgate on September 23. Blazejowski moves well in the pocket and blitzing him may just be helping out the Paladin offense.

As far as tackling, that will be a key area to watch. I don't think you will see too many guys get Dirks or Wilcox on the ground by just trying to knock them over. They are big, strong, and run with a low pad level. Even after first contact they will twist and kick for extra yards. They run angry.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think a lot of the oddity there is in part due to the amount we blitz. That leaves holes for RBs to exploit and forces our DBs to make some really fast reads then adjust. That extra 1/2 sec or so means a couple more yards. We also don't wrap up well, way, way, way too much hitting but not really tackling. It's almost as if the guys are going after the "BIG" hit to tackle rather than using their arms as much as the hit.

Now on the rankings subject. IMHO, AGS has all three of the SoCon teams too high. I think we all are more like a 14-16 or so with Furman not to far behind.

Looking at the rest of the division, I don't think there's 13 teams better than the best team in the socon

[SU DOG]

Looking at the rest of the division, I don't think there's 13 teams better than the best team in the socon

Agreed. IMO, Wofford proved a point about that last year at Youngstown.

[FurmanWins!!]

Hey guys, would appreciate your vote for AGS game of the week if you have a sec:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197820-2017-10-28-AGS-GOTW-Week-9

[FUGameBreaker]

Can you even imagine how crazy it would be in this day and age if an opposing teams fans torn down a goal post somewhere lol, crazy crazy xslapfightx

[SU DOG]

Can you even imagine how crazy it would be in this day and age if an opposing teams fans torn down a goal post somewhere lol, crazy crazy xslapfightx

Are you hinting Saturday in Cullowhee? xlolx

[FUGameBreaker]

Are you hinting Saturday in Cullowhee? xlolx


Yes taking my laser gun, will be a one man job, might get me on the news lol xlolx

[woffordgrad94]

Yes taking my laser gun, will be a one man job, might get me on the news lol xlolx
I’m sure it will. But it will probably get you in the slammer too. Is it worth it? That’s one you have to answer for yourself! xthumbsupx

[FUGameBreaker]

I’m sure it will. But it will probably get you in the slammer too. Is it worth it? That’s one you have to answer for yourself! xthumbsupx


Haha yes true :D Pros and Cons

[wcugrad95]

While I know the history and understand the thoughts, the WCU win and subsequent tear down of the Furman goalposts (at Furman) was in a semifinal playoff game with future NFL players all over the field (I know of at least 3 from WCU who went on to pro careers). The winner of that game went to the I-AA National Championship, and the two teams played to a tie in the regular season and Western had to get an at-large bid back when that was a very hard thing to do. While Saturday's game is big for both programs, there are still multiple games left for us to even qualify for the playoffs. I don't want to downplay the importance of the game for each of our teams, but tearing down goal posts back in an age that wasn't that far removed from public streaking in a game to get to the championship round can somehow be explained. Tearing down the goal posts in the 9th game of the season would be hard to justify (by either team). And that is coming from a fan who knows good-and-well that this is the biggest "9th game of the season" for Western since probably that game.

[NorthChuckSouth]

the WCU win and subsequent tear down of the Furman goalposts (at Furman)

Hahahahahaha that's awesome!! Bet a lot Furman people were heated after that

[wcugrad95]

Hahahahahaha that's awesome!! Bet a lot Furman people were heated after that

It was 1983. Western went on to lose the championship game badly, and we haven't even been back to the playoffs since. Furman went on to play in a total of 3 championship games and won a National Championship. I would trade them back their goalposts for their National Championship.

[tenNesseeCat]

Hahahahahaha that's awesome!! Bet a lot Furman people were heated after that

Yea, ask fubear about it.

[gofurman]

Connell Young is a converted RB who has been playing WR. He is too good an athlete not to find a way to get him in games, but he has been hampered for basically the same time Newsome has. Jordan Mathis has played well in that spot and has been a good receiver for us, but with Young we have more of a threat running a new wrinkle with an effective option play (Mathis has been good at that, but Young was a stud HS running back and can produce a game-changing play if given chances). We have not been at full-strength on offense since the Samford game, but all signs appear to point to the coaches having been conservative with bringing those guys back and targeting this late-season run of games for their return. Adams has shaken-off some extra hits that he has had to take shouldering the load of the offense the past 3 weeks, but he has not missed any plays. Nobody knows for sure, but I expect at least our 2-deep to be posted with all the typical starters listed other than our —>. TE Sexton and Payne. Sexton missed the first 3 or 4 games due to a suspension, and is now injured. But we have played the bulk of the season with other guys at TE doing well.

Who is Payne? What position does he play ?

[wcugrad95]

Payne and Sexton are both TEs. Owen Cosenke is a Freshman (by way of Fork Union Military) who has been holding down the TE position for most of the season and doing well. Sexton played in 2 games, Payne in 1, and Cosenke has played in all 8 (starting 7). Sexton missed all of 2016 after earning all-conference honors in 2015. I feel bad for him as a Senior and getting hurt after missing last year, but he has not played much this season. Payne was an all-freshman SoCon selection last year in Sexton's absence. We were fortunate to have 3 good TEs.

[FUGameBreaker]

Hahahahahaha that's awesome!! Bet a lot Furman people were heated after that


Absolutely xnodx

[FUBeAR]

Tearing down the goal posts in the 9th game of the season would be hard to justify (by either team). And that is coming from a fan who knows good-and-well that this is the biggest "9th game of the season" for Western since probably that game.

What if I told you about a large group of visiting fans that attempted to do exactly that in the 9th game of the year?

And what if I told you that game, a 1 point win for the visitors, was completely meaningless as neither Team won a Championship nor made the Playoffs?

And what if I told you that group of fans included an individual who, without provocation, assaulted a former Player for the Home Team with a deadly weapon causing a severe gash / head wound (fortunately, he was not blinded in the eye on that side of his face)?

And what if I told you those visiting fans were proudly wearing purple & WCU logos on their attire?


The year was 1984 & I saw it all with my own eyes, up close & personal.

The classless vandalism in 1983 by the WCU crowd was somewhat understandable. They had never been there before (or since, for that matter) & Furman had owned everyone in the SoCon for about 6 years; so a great deal of pent-up envy needed to be released. I get that...sorta.

1984 crap puts WCU ahead of Marshall & GaSou in my personal SoCon Hall of Shame.

[PaladinFan]

A ways out, but looks like the weather could be a factor Saturday.

[FUGameBreaker]

What if I told you about a large group of visiting fans that attempted to do exactly that in the 9th game of the year?

And what if I told you that game, a 1 point win for the visitors, was completely meaningless as neither Team won a Championship nor made the Playoffs?

And what if I told you that group of fans included an individual who, without provocation, assaulted a former Player for the Home Team with a deadly weapon causing a severe gash / head wound (fortunately, he was not blinded in the eye on that side of his face)?

And what if I told you those visiting fans were proudly wearing purple & WCU logos on their attire?


The year was 1984 & I saw it all with my own eyes, up close & personal.

The classless vandalism in 1983 by the WCU crowd was somewhat understandable. They had never been there before (or since, for that matter) & Furman had owned everyone in the SoCon for about 6 years; so a great deal of pent-up envy needed to be released. I get that...sorta.

1984 crap puts WCU ahead of Marshall & GaSou in my personal SoCon Hall of Shame.



Wow, never knew that transpired, pretty crazy!

[FurmanWins!!]

FU DC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuu31QcK2jk

FU OC:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELBQDCjwcFU

[The Cats]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM67ZP0UMAEZKj-.jpg

[FurmanWins!!]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DM67ZP0UMAEZKj-.jpg





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgopHWACUXs

[PaladinFan]

I looked over WCU's game earlier this year against Wofford. While there is not a 1:1 comp for Furman's offense in the SoCon, I do think that they are probably closest in running style to the Terriers.

How did WCU manage to keep their game against Wofford close?

Just looking at the stats, Wofford rushed for nearly 400 yards, ran 17 more plays, held the ball for 13 more minutes, put up over 100 more yards of offense, and was +2 in turnovers after intercepting Adams 3 times. It appears both teams were heavily penalized.

Ordinarily, I would think that those numbers would indicate a walkaway win for Wofford. It isn't easy to surrender the ball that many times and give up that much possession to their offense and expect to win.

[Reign of Terrier]

I looked over WCU's game earlier this year against Wofford. While there is not a 1:1 comp for Furman's offense in the SoCon, I do think that they are probably closest in running style to the Terriers.

How did WCU manage to keep their game against Wofford close?

Just looking at the stats, Wofford rushed for nearly 400 yards, ran 17 more plays, held the ball for 13 more minutes, put up over 100 more yards of offense, and was +2 in turnovers after intercepting Adams 3 times. It appears both teams were heavily penalized.

Ordinarily, I would think that those numbers would indicate a walkaway win for Wofford. It isn't easy to surrender the ball that many times and give up that much possession to their offense and expect to win.

It goes to show what Western Carolina is capable of on offense and the inherent risk of having a run-first, ball control team against a high pace team such as Western Carolina.

Wofford's offense is in the top 4 or so (well, we may not be after the last couple of weeks) in efficiency (scoring at about 40% of the time we have the ball). Furman's offense is #1,Western is #2.

When you're a run-first, ball-control team, there's this sweet spot where your efficiency can possibly be counterproductive to winning these kind of games. If you're grinding clock and maintaining drives but only getting 4 yards a carry or so, you can have the ball forever but not have any points to show for it (for example, against Wofford, the Citadel in the first half had about 200 yards of offense and were successful, but they only possessed the ball 4 times and scored twice). That's Wofford's problem this year. We're silently more efficient than most teams, but not efficient enough or close to the efficiency of Furman (who is ungodly efficient) to where we can reliably score 20 or so in a half.

Against Western in particular, penalties were huge, often having Wofford settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. Wofford's playcalling this year has also been high risk-high reward in the sense that we've been not-conservative on second downs, often passing (note: we have an intermediate pass game this year, but we're a run-first team and second and long passing more often than not knocks us off schedule) and that happened at least once or twice against Western.

This is why I like to look at scoring possessions per game as opposed to the final score (and if you want to get real creative, research the number of drives that go 30 yards +; I think that may be a similar or better measure, but it takes more time). By that measure, Wofford scored 6 times (indicating that they moved the ball pretty well) while Western scored 4 (both include OT of course). That measurement helps us understand little harder-to-quantify things like execution, time management, play-calling, etc.

By that regard, I'd say Furman is better than most teams, but so is Western Carolina. My overall assessment would be that Western can't afford to turn the ball over or be as "inefficient" (they still had a decent day, given their standards and the amount of possessions they had) as they were against Wofford.

The difference between Furman's defense and Wofford's defense is probably big plays. Furman makes more big plays--tackles for loss, sacks (maybe turnovers at this point, I haven't kept count), whereas Wofford still manages a top 3 defense in the conference and top 40 defense overall while still being on the lower end in terms of tackles for loss, sacks, etc.

As far as I'm concerned, one of the few consistent trends of this year is that Furman's offense will maintain its efficiency. If they break that trend, they'll be in trouble. Big plays will be the difference on defense for Furman. I think they'll play worse than Wofford from a yardage perspective, but they're more likely to get to the QB and cause turnovers.

So, in short, Western can't afford to turn over the ball like they did against Wofford and Furman can't afford to lose the turnover battle either. That seems like a truism for many people, but I think it'll be the best indicator/predictor for the outcome of this game. I'd go so far to say that Furman needs to be at least +1 to feel good.

[Houndawg]

It was 1983. Western went on to lose the championship game badly, and we haven't even been back to the playoffs since. Furman went on to play in a total of 3 championship games and won a National Championship. I would trade them back their goalposts for their National Championship.

SIU 43-7 WCU xcoffeex

[PaladinFan]

I think Furman is a tough matchup for WCU. The Paladins have a bit of a unique combination of a physical running game combined with a lot of big play capability and ball distribution.

Speaking of efficiency, I noted a stat earlier this morning that was surprising. Furman had 4 scoring drives against Mercer of at least 7 plays and 70 yards. In the 7 games prior, Mercer's defense had surrendered only 5 such drives all season. Each scoring drive had a 4th down conversion.

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer is holding teams to scoring 25% of their possessions this year.

Furman scored on 44% of their possessions against them Saturday.

On top of that, the Paladin Defense held the Mercer Offense to 8% below their average. It's the first time in conference play Furman held an opponent to a statistically significant efficiency mark (~8%). Now granted, it is Mercer who has had offensive woes all year, but if they can do something comparable with Western (hold them ~8% below their average, while being only about 6% lower on offense) they'll probably have an advantage (44% compared to 38%) especially if they convert touchdowns instead of field goals.

If the Western defense has a game like Wofford where they allow the opposition to score on ~10% more possessions than their season average, while still averaging roughly the same amount on offense, it's gonna be a long day for the Catamounts.

[Smitty]

https://media.giphy.com/media/yODVOeMxWBwBO/giphy.gif

Just kidding...

I'm not sure how well percentages translates into football results. Especially when considering any amount of scoring on any possession by Wofford would have changed the fact that the game went into overtime. Instead of including the random percentage you could have just said it is going to be an offensive shootout and the first defense to hold the offense 3 times will probably win.

[Reign of Terrier]

it's not a random percentage. Just because it's a little more obscure than yards per game or points per game doesn't mean it's more or less random. My argument is that it's more predictive and nuanced than "they'll score a lot of points"

Your point is taken away from the fact that every team in the conference, on average, holds opposing offenses to no points at least 4-5 times a game. Everyone averages between 10 and 12 possessions a game, and the most optimal offenses score less than 6 times a game. I'll let you do the math there.

If Western wins, I doubt they'll score 40. If Furman wins, they'd have to score in the 30s with the 40s being a possibility.

[Terrier19]

What is the weather forecast for this one? Might play a major factor in both teams attacks....

[wcugrad95]

I looked over WCU's game earlier this year against Wofford. While there is not a 1:1 comp for Furman's offense in the SoCon, I do think that they are probably closest in running style to the Terriers.

How did WCU manage to keep their game against Wofford close?

Just looking at the stats, Wofford rushed for nearly 400 yards, ran 17 more plays, held the ball for 13 more minutes, put up over 100 more yards of offense, and was +2 in turnovers after intercepting Adams 3 times. It appears both teams were heavily penalized.

Ordinarily, I would think that those numbers would indicate a walkaway win for Wofford. It isn't easy to surrender the ball that many times and give up that much possession to their offense and expect to win.

Western was ahead at halftime 14-13 - had we just taken a knee on our last series and ran the clock out it would have been 14-10 (in an overtime game). Western was ahead 21-13 midway through the 3rd quarter. Western then missed a FG in the 2nd half after getting a 1st and 10 at the Wofford 19 yard line but the offense sputtered (in an overtime game). Wofford gained their yardage edge in the late 3rd and through 4th quarter because they got their ground game going and wore down our D. I went back and looked at each of the drives in the game, and I am finding a discrepancy on the actual yardage gained. Here are the yards from the actual drive charts on ESPN:

First half yardage: WCU 156 Wofford 155
Second half yardage: WCU 209 Wofford 249
OT: WCU 2 Wofford 25
Total: WCU 369 Wofford 429

The 2nd half was actually pretty classic. Successive drives went like this:
WCU - 11 plays, 84 yds, TD
Wofford - 8 plays, 72 yds, TD
WCU - 13 plays, 50 yds, Missed FG
Wofford - 13 plays, 77 yds, TD
WCU - 11 plays, 75 yds, TD

And TOP is a stat I wouldn't look at in any WCU game. We might score on a 1 to 3 play drive that takes 1 minute. Even our 11 and 13 play "drives" against Wofford only took around 4 mins. That plus the hair-pulling fact that up-tempo teams can frequently have 3-and-outs is what really effects our defensive stats (in my opinion). If we try to slow-down on offense, we get worse.

This game had a very sloppy end of the first half, but otherwise was tooth-and-nail and fittingly went into OT. The cliche about turnovers held true in this one.

[PaladinFan]

I don't typically bother with TOP as a stat unless you are playing an option team.

Option teams are at their best, IMO, when they can get a lead and essentially play keep away.

[wcugrad95]

What is the weather forecast for this one? Might play a major factor in both teams attacks....

Friday is supposed to be like 69 and sunny with 0% chance of rain. Saturday currently has different forecasts, but all call for rain right now (some saying showers with heavy rain at night and some saying heavy rain during the game). But no way I trust a weather forecast more than about 8 hours in advance - as it could be a monsoon or Saturday could look like Friday. One thing I bet the house on is meteorologists "practice" their craft even more than my doctor does.

[PaladinFan]

Friday is supposed to be like 69 and sunny with 0% chance of rain. Saturday currently has different forecasts, but all call for rain right now (some saying showers with heavy rain at night and some saying heavy rain during the game). But no way I trust a weather forecast more than about 8 hours in advance - as it could be a monsoon or Saturday could look like Friday. One thing I bet the house on is meteorologists "practice" their craft even more than my doctor does.

I've never seen either team play in inclement weather, but I would have to think that WCU would prefer a crisp fall day over cold and rainy. Furman seems well suited for a slosh fest.

[wcugrad95]

Both teams like to run the ball - Furman with the traditional smash-mouth approach that on the surface you would think lends itself to them having the advantage. But WCU calls a ton of RPO plays that often turn into the R rather than the P. For the season we have 216 passes and 363 runs (Furman is 150 passes/413 runs). For the season WCU averages 5.5 yards per carry and Furman averages 4.4. So I would probably give Furman a theoretical edge with bad weather because of what they like to do right up the middle to eat clock and wear defenses down (and to lull you to sleep for the big throw over the top), but WCU will run the ball more than they throw in this game even if there is good weather.

Current Weather Channel forecast. The only good thing I see in that is the wind won't be a factor if this is what we see at game time. It will significantly impact the crowd, though:



SAT





OCT 28
Rain
59°35°
100%
S 8 mph
85%



UV INDEX
SUNRISE
SUNSET
MOONRISE
MOONSET



2 of 10
7:50 am
6:41 pm
3:00 pm
12:54 am



Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon. High 59F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch.

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/FurmanPaladins/status/923281573486714880

[FurmanWins!!]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DVQc0tgTAE

[FurmanWins!!]

Paladins going for 6 straight wins for first time since 2005

[PaladinFan]

Paladins going for 6 straight wins for first time since 2005

Yeesh.

However, whenever you are comparing a team to that 2005 Furman team, things are good.

[Reign of Terrier]

No offense, but y'all are making me question my own hype for Furman right now. They're a good team, obviously, and if they win this week they'll have an above 50% chance at making the playoffs, but as far as I'm concerned, last week was their first quality win. They've not yet beaten a team with a record above .500.

Granted, these were the exact same criticisms of Wofford last year (I think the only team above .500 we beat was Chattanooga and Mercer in the regular season). I'm just saying, let's reign in the hype. This week is the "for real" test IMO. They pass and they're worth it, but if they fail they probably have more blemishes than first glance.

[FurmanWins!!]

I think most anybody agrees that FU only deserves hype if they can win this Saturday on the road against a top 20 team, that's why this will be a statement game for either FU or WCU

- - - Updated - - -


Yeesh.

However, whenever you are comparing a team to that 2005 Furman team, things are good.


Oh yeah!

Last time we won 7 straight was 1999 when we trounced UNC

[SCPALADIN]

Oh yeah!

Last time we won 7 straight was 1999 when we trounced UNC

That was a fun day...


www.youtube.com/watch?v=i92D2YHIjm4

[PaladinFan]

No offense, but y'all are making me question my own hype for Furman right now. They're a good team, obviously, and if they win this week they'll have an above 50% chance at making the playoffs, but as far as I'm concerned, last week was their first quality win. They've not yet beaten a team with a record above .500.

Granted, these were the exact same criticisms of Wofford last year (I think the only team above .500 we beat was Chattanooga and Mercer in the regular season). I'm just saying, let's reign in the hype. This week is the "for real" test IMO. They pass and they're worth it, but if they fail they probably have more blemishes than first glance.

It's an interesting stat, not hype.

Look, you can nitpick anyone's schedule. Look at Western Carolina. Who have they beaten? Samford? Well, how good is Samford?

Samford has a win over a ranked but overrated Citadel team. They were nearly beaten by a D2 squad. They got a win over Wofford, but how good is Wofford?

Wofford has bunch of by-the-skin-of your teeth wins over some potentially decent and some less than decent teams. Does that make them a quality win? Is a team a "quality" team just because they have miraculously managed to avoid losing despite ample opportunity to do so?

If one assumes that Wofford and Elon are top 10 teams (many do) does it make a difference that Furman lost to those teams by a combined 4 points? Does it matter that a single missed block by a freshman lineman might have been the difference in losing to Wofford by a point and winning? Does it matter that Furman essentially spotted Elon 3 touchdowns, maybe the second best team in the CAA, and still darn near beat them, and probably would have but for an untimely penalty on a game winning drive?

If Furman beats Western Carolina, can't you say, "well, how good is Western Carolina? Who have they beaten?"

[FurmanWins!!]

That was a fun day...


www.youtube.com/watch?v=i92D2YHIjm4



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i92D2YHIjm4

Indeed! UNC player of the game on the UNC coaches show the day after was the punter lol

[FurmanWins!!]

Speaking of FBS wins you guys notice how well UCF is doing since 2 years ago when we beat them, 6-0 #17 FBS, pretty quick turnaround for their new coach also


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Sz31WAf1go

[SCPALADIN]

Poor Carl Torbush. He's now 0-3 vs Furman with a score differential of 136-45.

[WCU-Cats!]

don't care what the weather winds up being for this one I am showing up, gonna be a slug-fest trading blows I believe, expecting a great game

[FurmanWins!!]

Some convo on FU vs. WCU game:

http://thefcswedge.com/the-fcs-wedge/the-fcs-wedge-2017-1024-week-9-preview/

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/923226212176224258

[gofurman]

Furman seeking to win six in a row for first time since 2005

Yeesh.

However, whenever you are comparing a team to that 2005 Furman team, things are good.

Winning six in a row is tough in FCS where there is often an FBS opponent embedded in there. If Furman had win every FCS game this year we still wouldn't have won six in a row by playing NC State in game 3

FCS is tough on streaks. Say you go 9-2. Great year. Lose only to FBS and lose one FCS game to top tier FCS. you still may not win six in a row

[FurmanWins!!]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1P3xsV614U

[gofurman]

No offense, but y'all are making me question my own hype for Furman right now. They're a good team, obviously, and if they win this week they'll have an above 50% chance at making the playoffs, but as far as I'm concerned, last week was their first quality win. They've not yet beaten a team with a record above .500.

Granted, these were the exact same criticisms of Wofford last year (I think the only team above .500 we beat was Chattanooga and Mercer in the regular season). I'm just saying, let's reign in the hype. This week is the "for real" test IMO. They pass and they're worth it, but if they fail they probably have more blemishes than first glance.

I don't think anyone should say it's hype per se. We are just looking good for having nabbed some good coaches. We may finish 6-5. That would be great. Playoffs ? Playoff ? Let's not get ahead. It's house money and should scare the Socon for the years that are coming

I know youngterrier knows his stuff but it bears repeating. New head coach. New DC. New schemes. Freshman everywhere. Not a single senior staring on entire defense. Total of about 5 seniors playing much. We went 3-8 w a Senior team last year. They al knew their assignments and plays. This year we were picked 7th/8th and - based on the items I mentioned - should be happy w 4 wins.

House money. If FU wins its scary. If we lose we are still playoff eligible and shouldn't worry. Can still go 6-5 or 7-4 and that is all good. A rejuvenated Furman and good Western make the SoCon even better and it looks like both are on their way. I don't think anyone should question fu trajectory if we lose this week. I see great things

[Reign of Terrier]

Let me adjust some of the hype/statistics here: Winning 5 games straight is significant at this level. No question. But before the comparisons to the semifinalist Furman team come up, I think it's a better explanation that the reason Furman hasn't won 4-6 straight in over decade has more to do with the program being down than them being so much better than the Furman baseline average for good teams.

For instance, just glancing at Wofford's performances over the last 10 years, we've won 4 and 5 straight many times (especially if you don't count FBS games) and I'm certain that's the case with most playoff teams in the Socon. The difference was we were a playoff team and Furman wasn't.

So Furman's definitely good/great this year; 5+ game win streaks are an indicator, but the best indicator will be this weekend against Western. They haven't played a team like this all season just based upon style of play.

[PaladinFan]

Let me adjust some of the hype/statistics here: Winning 5 games straight is significant at this level. No question. But before the comparisons to the semifinalist Furman team come up, I think it's a better explanation that the reason Furman hasn't won 4-6 straight in over decade has more to do with the program being down than them being so much better than the Furman baseline average for good teams.

For instance, just glancing at Wofford's performances over the last 10 years, we've won 4 and 5 straight many times (especially if you don't count FBS games) and I'm certain that's the case with most playoff teams in the Socon. The difference was we were a playoff team and Furman wasn't.

So Furman's definitely good/great this year; 5+ game win streaks are an indicator, but the best indicator will be this weekend against Western. They haven't played a team like this all season just based upon style of play.

For the record, I think the 2005 Furman team would beat any 2017 SoCon team by three touchdowns.

[FUBeAR]

For the record, I think the 2005 Furman team would beat any 2017 SoCon team by three touchdowns.

I think the 1980 Furman Team would beat THAT Furman Team by three touchdowns. :)

[PaladinFan]

I think the 1980 Furman Team would beat THAT Furman Team by three touchdowns. :)

I'd pay a few bucks to see the 1980 team and the 2005 team in a flag football game. Seems like a nobrainer.

[tenNesseeCat]

xthumbsdownxxsmhx
http://313merch.com/designs/sutch-rudder.jpg

[citdog]

Both of these teams will lose to The Citadel in 2017.



furman sucks

[Schism55]

xthumbsdownxxsmhx
http://313merch.com/designs/sutch-rudder.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGUuugNEUcU
:D

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/SoConSports/status/923897349985964032

[FUGameBreaker]

https://twitter.com/SoConSports/status/923897349985964032



ready for it xslapfightx

[FurmanWins!!]

Paladins are back baby!!!

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/FurmanPaladins/status/924410399952396288

[citdog]

furman sucks

[FurmanWins!!]

furman sucks


Back baby!

[The Cats]

Congrats to the Paladins.

It was a miserable day in Cullowhee between the rain and the loss. I guess our defense still has a little work to do, as I thought I was watching the 2016 team yesterday.

Good Luck the rest of the season.

[FurmanWins!!]

Congrats to the Paladins.

It was a miserable day in Cullowhee between the rain and the loss. I guess our defense still has a little work to do, as I thought I was watching the 2016 team yesterday.

Good Luck the rest of the season.


Thanks man! Good luck to the Cats as well!

[soconjohn5]

I wouldn't say Western's defense played horrible as a whole...It was the big plays that were killer in a game like that with conditions like that...I hope Tyrie Adams is okay...He is a great QB and is going to be really good in this league for the next two years...Best of luck the rest of the way. I really liked the way #96 (Watt) and (#49) Link played for y'all on defense Saturday...Both talented players.

[PaladinFan]

I wouldn't say Western's defense played horrible as a whole...It was the big plays that were killer in a game like that with conditions like that...I hope Tyrie Adams is okay...He is a great QB and is going to be really good in this league for the next two years...Best of luck the rest of the way. I really liked the way #96 (Watt) and (#49) Link played for y'all on defense Saturday...Both talented players.

I'd have to go back and look, but I think Furman had 3 long running plays in the second half that were essentially the same play. I presume the Furman coaching staff made an adjustment at half time, as I am not sure a WCU defender even touched the Furman running backs before they broke into the secondary.

I thought the Cats largely played well on defense given the conditions. Of course, Furman's offense is built to hammer away at you and then start landing the haymakers. So, from that perspective, I think Furman was essentially sticking to its game plan.

[SCPALADIN]

Both of these teams will lose to The Citadel in 2017.



furman sucks

Enjoyxcoffeex
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26470&stc=1

[cx500d]

Enjoyxcoffeex
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26470&stc=1

Crows good...he also likes gummi candy

http://www.bagof.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Bag-Of-Pic2.jpg

[FUGameBreaker]

Enjoyxcoffeex
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26470&stc=1



This

[gofurman]

Crows good...he also likes gummi candy

http://www.bagof.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Bag-Of-Pic2.jpg



Bump. Johnsons taste good 20... Furman 56. Worst loss of year for Citadel