Socon Week 9 pick em and power rankings

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 3-1 last week. Samford put a monkeywrench in Wofford's bid in becoming the presumptive Southern Conference champions. Here's where I have after today's games. Numbers in parenthesis indicates how many wins they need to become playoff eligible against number of D1 games.

1) Western Carolina (1 of 4) - Put away the Keydets with relative ease
2) Samford (2 of 4) - Spoiled Wofford's homecoming
3) Wofford (1 of 4) - Can still win title but need help
4) Furman (2 of 3) - Won this year's Lamb Bowl
5) The Citadel (OUT*) - Survived a spirited effort
6) Mercer (OUT*) - One step forward, one step back
7) ETSU (OUT) - Rested this week
8) Chattanooga (OUT) - Showed me something but not enough
9) VMI (OUT) - Can't wait to see this season come to an end

*Effectively eliminated since they have FBS opponents on their schedule that are heavily favored.

Predictions
Wofford @ ETSU (Upset Special of the Week) - Bucs steal one at home
VMI @ The Citadel - Bulldogs win the Silver Shako again
Chattanooga @ Samford - Bulldogs chew up the Mocs
Furman @ Western Carolina (Game of the Week)- Catamounts find a way to win

Path to the Southern Conference championship
Wofford - 2-1 vs. teams tied with. Can become presumptive SoCon champion with win and Samford loss this week
Western Carolina - 1-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Furman). Can be in the driver's seat with win vs. Furman and needs both Wofford and Samford to lose this week
Furman - 0-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Western Carolina and Samford). Can be in the driver's seat with win vs. Western Carolina and needs both Wofford and Samford to lose this week
Samford - 1-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Furman). Can be in the driver's seat with win and Wofford loss this week. Needs Furman to win this week to possibly setup matchup for all the marbles on Nov. 18th.

[ElCid]

I was 3-1 last week. Samford put a monkeywrench in Wofford's bid in becoming the presumptive Southern Conference champions. Here's where I have after today's games. Numbers in parenthesis indicates how many wins they need to become playoff eligible against number of D1 games.

1) Western Carolina (1 of 4) - Put away the Keydets with relative ease
2) Samford (2 of 4) - Spoiled Wofford's homecoming
3) Wofford (1 of 4) - Can still win title but need help
4) Furman (2 of 3) - Won this year's Lamb Bowl
5) The Citadel (OUT*) - Survived a spirited effort
6) Mercer (OUT*) - One step forward, one step back
7) ETSU (OUT) - Rested this week
8) Chattanooga (OUT) - Showed me something but not enough
9) VMI (OUT) - Can't wait to see this season come to an end

*Effectively eliminated since they have FBS opponents on their schedule that are heavily favored.

Predictions
Wofford @ ETSU (Upset Special of the Week) - Bucs steal one at home
VMI @ The Citadel - Bulldogs win the Silver Shako again
Chattanooga @ Samford - Bulldogs chew up the Mocs
Furman @ Western Carolina (Game of the Week)- Catamounts find a way to win

Path to the Southern Conference championship
Wofford - 2-1 vs. teams tied with. Can become presumptive SoCon champion with win and Samford loss this week
Western Carolina - 1-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Furman). Can be in the driver's seat with win vs. Furman and needs both Wofford and Samford to lose this week
Furman - 0-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Western Carolina and Samford). Can be in the driver's seat with win vs. Western Carolina and needs both Wofford and Samford to lose this week
Samford - 1-1 vs. teams tied with (yet to play Furman). Can be in the driver's seat with win and Wofford loss this week. Needs Furman to win this week to possibly setup matchup for all the marbles on Nov. 18th.

You just made my head hurt. Much easier to wait a week and see who blows it.

[The Cats]

Predictions
Wofford @ ETSU
VMI @ The Citadel
Chattanooga @ Samford
Furman @ Western Carolina - Cats win Homecoming game

[bonarae]

Wofford
The Citadel
Samford
WCU

[Reign of Terrier]

Considering wofford has played the other top 6 teams in the conference and gone 4-1 against them, and at least 7 of the other teams will logically certainly have a worse record than that, any power ranking that has us lower than second is BS.

Upsets happen but I don’t think wofford loses two straight, especially to a team we beat 31-0 last year. The only argument you can make that wofford is anything less than alone at second or tied for first has to assume a speculative upset. Had we won today, I would totally agree with you that at an upset was possible and more probable, but seeing as we lost I just do not see us losing to ETSU this week and the probability of us losing In the next 3 IMO is lower than had we won

[wcugrad95]

It will be very interesting to see the polls on Monday. WCU beat Samford earlier in the season, but in many polls have stayed behind them. Now that Samford beat Wofford, if they pull ahead of the Terriers it will seem odd to me. If we were being honest, all 3 teams should probably be lined up back-to-back-to-back somewhere around #10, 11, and 12. And Furman should join the top-25 party.

[PaladinFan]

On paper, WCU and Furman seem to be mirror images of one another. Different styles, but impressive offenses with good, supporting defenses.

[youcanbankit]

Predictions
Wofford
Citadel
Samford
Furman

[Reign of Terrier]

On paper, WCU and Furman seem to be mirror images of one another. Different styles, but impressive offenses with good, supporting defenses.

My model (call it the YT Bull**** Model) predicted the following scores for the past weekend (I think you make the margin of error 7 points for either team):

Furman 27
Mercer 26

Samford 27
Wofford 24

Western Carolina 36
VMI 18

Citadel 26
Chattanooga 18.

I'm pleased with the model, I'm plugging in the numbers for this week and I'll let you guys know the "baseline expectation" when I get home later tonight

[wcugrad95]

On paper, WCU and Furman seem to be mirror images of one another. Different styles, but impressive offenses with good, supporting defenses.

WCU has not played particularly well on offense really since the Samford game. Detrez Newsome played some against Wofford, but has really been on the shelf since then. We have weapons, but need #21 back to play these last 3 games and take some pressure off our QB. On the other side of the ball, WCU has played as good as I can remember on D for the past few games. They wore down against Wofford (as many teams do), but going back to the UTC game we have given up 7, 35 (OT loss), 10, and 7. That is mostly against the bottom-half teams, but that is still good for a defense that was expected to just try to keep us in games to let our offense win.

Another week, and another "game of the year" in the SoCon. If Western wins we get to 7 D-I wins and will be in good shape for a playoff birth with conference title hopes still alive. If Furman wins they are looking at yet another "game of the year" against Samford after a rivalry game with Citadel. This should be a good one, and will have major SoCon and playoff implications.

[CID1990]

Considering wofford has played the other top 6 teams in the conference and gone 4-1 against them, and at least 7 of the other teams will logically certainly have a worse record than that, any power ranking that has us lower than second is BS.

Upsets happen but I don’t think wofford loses two straight, especially to a team we beat 31-0 last year. The only argument you can make that wofford is anything less than alone at second or tied for first has to assume a speculative upset. Had we won today, I would totally agree with you that at an upset was possible and more probable, but seeing as we lost I just do not see us losing to ETSU this week and the probability of us losing In the next 3 IMO is lower than had we won

Wofford will need to play solid offense this week... do what they do and do it well - long sustained scoring drives. Because ETSU is going to pick on your DBs and that QB has settled in somewhat. They will score on the Terriers this year, but Wofford wins if they do the above.

[wcugrad95]

Wofford will need to play solid offense this week... do what they do and do it well - long sustained scoring drives. Because ETSU is going to pick on your DBs and that QB has settled in somewhat. They will score on the Terriers this year, but Wofford wins if they do the above.

Maybe, but after playing both teams I'd say Wofford's defense is much better than ETSU's offense. I was concerned about the Buc's passing going into our game primarily based on what people were saying (they ended up 12-31 for 137 yards and 2 picks against Western in their last game). But if you look at the stats, they had 2 good offensive games against Mercer and Furman, but in several other games have been held under 300 total yards. With the bye week and seeing what Samford did, I certainly expect them to try and throw the ball over the lot, but Hodges is on another level throwing the ball compared to everybody else in the league.

[woffordgrad94]

The teams at at top are so close to each other that ranking them is just too difficult to me right now.

Furman by a whisker over WCU
Wofford bounces back at ETSU
Samford defeats Chattanooga
The Citadel runs over VMI

[kdinva]

t1) Wofford
t1) WCU (didn't beat VMI by 50 like they assumed)
t1) Samford (too close for me to separate these 3)
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) ETSU
8) UTC
9) VMI


Wofford 27; ETSU 14
VMI 14; The Citadel 13
Samford 38; UTC 17
Furman 31; WCU 28

[ElCid]

VMI 14; The Citadel 13


WHAM!

Always a great game. Hard fought. I always like how hard our teams play this game.

But not sure the Shako changes homes this year.

[PaladinFan]

WHAM!

Always a great game. Hard fought. I always like how hard our teams play this game.

But not sure the Shako changes homes this year.

VMI is a gritty bunch. Their defense will get after you a bit. I just don't think they have offensive firepower to make up a deficit.

If they win this year, its going to be like 14-7 game, I think.

[wcugrad95]

VMI showed a very gritty defense against WCU yesterday. Western slowly got to close to 400 yards of offense, but very few big plays - and the Keydets really stiffened in the red zone and forced FGs. Offensively I think they will be a little better now that they seem to be settling for Hodges at QB, but they weren't able to get much going yesterday. Both WCU and Samford "only" scored 26 against them, and they played Furman tough for a half. so if there is a low-scoring game out there for them, their D can make it interesting.

[ElCid]

VMI showed a very gritty defense against WCU yesterday. Western slowly got to close to 400 yards of offense, but very few big plays - and the Keydets really stiffened in the red zone and forced FGs. Offensively I think they will be a little better now that they seem to be settling for Hodges at QB, but they weren't able to get much going yesterday. Both WCU and Samford "only" scored 26 against them, and they played Furman tough for a half. so if there is a low-scoring game out there for them, their D can make it interesting.

Well their defense was expected to be a bit better that its offense. Their LBs at least were supposed to be pretty stout. But they started slow on both sides of the ball. That their defense is stiffening up is not a big surprise. But this is a tough rivalry both us both and that is usually a pretty good equalizer. Hasn't been a huge number of blow outs in this series. VMI looking for its first win in the series since 02 though.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford will need to play solid offense this week... do what they do and do it well - long sustained scoring drives. Because ETSU is going to pick on your DBs and that QB has settled in somewhat. They will score on the Terriers this year, but Wofford wins if they do the above.

I'm skeptical of how good ETSU's offense is. It's true that they've had more success than last year. They have the second best passing offense in the Socon, but that isn't saying much. Furman, Wofford, Western Carolina, and the Citadel are all teams with strong preference for the run. Mercer broke in a freshman QB. VMI is bad and Chattanooga has had OL issues all year. Saying you have the second best passing offense in the Socon this year is kind of like saying you're the second thinnest kid at fat camp. Unlike Samford, ETSU's offense isn't designed to throw the ball 40-50 times a game and they'd prefer not to.

It's true that they gave the Citadel a bout and they beat Mercer, but both have been uncharacteristically bad about scoring efficiency this year. They gave Mercer a game last year, so I consider that something of a head game; The Citadel game really shouldn't been as close as it was.

There are plenty of indicators that ETSU is not where they need to be in terms of OL play, between the run game and sacks allowed.

Meanwhile, wofford last week still was in a good position to take Samford to OT despite the fact that coaches had a royal brain fart (I'm being polite). Our center Roo Daniel got a hairline fracture on his wrist against Western Carolina. He missed last week, but had surgery and a plate put in to play this week (Note: he missed the first 5 games of the season with a knee injury). Roo clearly had problems snapping the ball as evident by the fact that he fumbled the snap 6 times. though we thankfully didn't lose possession on those snaps, they came at inopportune times, causing at least 3 drive to stall. Roo had no business playing in the second half; he finally took himself out after a 20 yard loss in which he snapped the ball over the QB's head. It's not the kid's fault he's not 100%, but it is the coaches' fault for not seeing a clear clear trend and making a decision until half way through the third quarter. It's no coincidence that we moved the ball with relative ease after Roo came out. Snaps were high and bad for rhythm all day. I'm not saying we'd beat Samford or that was the only reason we lost; if Roo's 100% or if Jerasaty plays in his place (as he did for the first five games), it's a different ball game and I like our chances.

This is relevant to the ETSU game, because I just don't see how they can stop us. I can see us stopping ourselves as every game that ETSU played that was close had an element of that (Citadel leaving points on the board; Mercer missing a key extra point). The only absolutely great game ETSU had on offense was against Furman in garbage time, and Furman's defense is already young and injured. With respect to the Citadel and Mercer, I think Wofford's offense is better and more efficient, and coming off a week such as this one I expect them on top of their game.

[FurmanWins!!]

Another big week on deck!

[FurmanWins!!]

Can't wait for FU @ WCU saturday, 2 great offenses for sure!

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/922212909849174016

[NorthChuckSouth]

Wofford @ ETSU - 24-14
VMI @ Citadel - xcoffeex
Chattanooga @ Samford - 42-28
Furman @ Western Carolina - 35-31

[tenNesseeCat]

Power:
Samford, WCU, Wofford
Furman
Mercer
The Citadel
ETSU
UTC
VMI

Picks:
Wofford @ ETSU
VMI @ The Citadel
UTC @ Samford
Furman @ WCU

[FurmanWins!!]

FCS Sagarin Ratings
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[Cat-in-GA]

Power Rankings
1) Western Carolina - Very little separates the top 3 for now
1) Wofford
1) Samford
4) Furman - Playing well, but can they finish strong?
5) The Citadel - No playoffs for The Citadel this year
6) Mercer - Has to wait at least one more year to make the playoffs
7) ETSU - Can they pull off another win or 2 this season? Maybe.
8) Chattanooga - Gut check time
9) VMI

This Week's Games
Wofford @ ETSU - Wofford's Defense is too tough for a predictable offense like ETSU
VMI @ The Citadel
Chattanooga @ Samford - Samford should win, but it might be closer than expected
Furman @ Western Carolina (Game of the Week) - Two well matched teams will battle it out in Cullowhee. The home team prevails.

[Terrier19]

POWER RANKINGS

1. Wofford (tough loss this weekend. Too many self inflicted wounds, bad snaps and penalties, compounded with some fantastic SOCON officiating...)
2. WCU (Gritty win over VMI.....really has a statement game this weekend.....excited for this one)
3. Samford (GREAT GREAT QB....very 1 dimensional team (running game is bad).....Used the BYE week well and got past Wofford when no one else could. I am not sold on Sammy beating Furman or Mercer and I would watch Chatt this weekend (Big Game Let Down)......
4. Furman (rolling along....Great win against Mercer....statement game is this weekend.....Very excited for this game)
5. Mercer (Lost a tough tough game this weekend......Will that game define their season....they still have life....will they respond...perfect time for a BYE for them and they will have 2 weeks to prep for SAmmy)
6. Citadel (Won the Slug fest against Chatt.....Hosting VMI for another Slug fest....might be a baseball score in this one.........Citadel with a walk off homerun in this one......)
7. ETSU (Got a big victory last week over BYE......will the 2 week prep time help them heal up enough to gameplan the Wofford Terriers hopping mad off their loss to Samford....tough spot for ETSU....will be competitive Half....Terriers lock ETSU down once again in this one)
8. Chatt (The spiral continues.....I keep thinking that Chatt has one surprise left in the tank......is it this week at Samford......I think Samford might suffer the Big Game Letdown in this one....This is Chatt's surprise...at least I hope this is as they come to Wofford the following week and want no parts of a Chatt surprise.......)
9. VMI (Tough season for the KEYDETS......They will battle Citadel tough this weekend........but will lose a close one 3-2....Citadel will hit a 47 yard field goal off the crossvar to win it at the buzzer...)

Picks:
Wofford @ ETSU (ETSU uses the Bye week for a good gameplan.....that lasts a competitive half.....T Dogs wear the Bucs down in this one)
VMI @ The Citadel (RIvalry game....the better team wins in an ugly affair....knock down drag out...)
UTC @ Samford (Upset special....Chatt pulls the one game surprise it has up its sleeve.....Sammy suffers the Big Game Let Down)
Furman @ WCU (not ready to pick this one yet....need to do some homework on this one)

[FUBeAR]

5) The Citadel
6) Mercer



5) The Citadel
6) Mercer

Typos?



5) Mercer
6) The Citadel8

I see you fixed your 'typo' from last week. Nice job! xthumbsupx

[Catamount87]

Power Poll
1. (Tie) WCU - Beat VMI but sputtered on offense
Samford - Doing enough with the passing game to make up for no running game, holding their own defensively
Wofford - Questionable play calling did them in
Furman - Gritty win with gutsy coaching, 4 for 4 on 4th down, wow!
.
.
.
.
5. Mercer - Did so much right except for 4th down defense
6. The Citadel - Stopped the bleeding for now
7. ETSU - beat up on bye
8. Chattanooga - Still has a slight pulse
9. VMI - Played agressive defense but zero offense


Predictions
Wofford @ ETSU - Bucs make it interesting but can't hold off the dogs
VMI @ The Citadel - Like the Bucs, VMI can't hold off the dogs
UTC @ Samford - Top SoCon pass offense vs top SoCon pass defense, Bulldogs all the way
Furman @ WCU (Game of the Week) - Catamounts find offensive rhythm again

[PaladinFan]

Two plays this weekend really sort of punctuated the new run and hit style of the Furman defense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKK4288yQJc

0:58 - Furman's 285 lbs backup NT, Parker Stokes, plants Mercer's Kaelan Riley in the open field. I'm not sure if Riley ever saw him, but to see a nearly 300 lbs defensive lineman close that gap against a big mobile QB like Riley was really impressive.

2:42 - Furman's starting NT Jaylan Reid breaks up a screen to Mercer's Chandler Curtis. Mercer had two men blocking Reid, threw a tunnel screen to one of the fastest, shiftiest WRs in the SoCon, and Reid just blew it up.

When you've got NTs that are making open field tackles, things are going right.

[Reign of Terrier]

As I said in another thread, I think Samford and Furman have the toughest road going forward of the top 4 teams.

They both have to play each other, but Samford also has Mercer which I think is the team best suited to beat Hodges. Their pass defense may not look like much, but outside of Furman and Western they're the only team in the conference that are both decent and balanced in terms of their offensive philosophy.

Furman has Citadel, Samford and Western. The latter two's offenses can match the high powered Furman offense, and the Citadel has the best run defense in the Socon.

I'm very confident that both Wofford and Western will somehow, some way make the playoffs, and I'm moderately confident that Samford and Furman will find a way, but I think it's going to be a little bit closer for them. Given historic trends, a late season Samford fade is just as likely as usual

[furpal87]

I'm thinking Southern gets 3...only way they get to 4 is Furman beats WCU and Citadel then loses to Samford who wins out, and then WCU beats UNC (which isn't as impossible as it sounded in August). UNC is a mess especially on offense, and WCU will score on them.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm thinking Southern gets 3...only way they get to 4 is Furman beats WCU and Citadel then loses to Samford who wins out, and then WCU beats UNC (which isn't as impossible as it sounded in August). UNC is a mess especially on offense, and WCU will score on them.

I don't see Western losing to Furman *and* the Citadel *and* Mercer. They would have to lose all three to be held out, and I think they win at least one of those.

Samford can afford to drop one more, but it'll be hard with Mercer and Furman on the slate. They'll be favored against Chattanooga and ETSU, but the late season fade away is Samford's MO

Furman can lose one, but they have the toughest slate with Samford, Western and the Citadel.

Two is almost certain. Three is very likely. I'd say we have a 60% chance (better than a coin flip) that we get 4 in.

[SU DOG]

I'm thinking Southern gets 3...only way they get to 4 is Furman beats WCU and Citadel then loses to Samford who wins out, and then WCU beats UNC (which isn't as impossible as it sounded in August). UNC is a mess especially on offense, and WCU will score on them.

But Furman wins over WCU and The Citadel should be enough to get them in regardless of the Samford or NC Game.

[SU DOG]

I don't see Western losing to Furman *and* the Citadel *and* Mercer. They would have to lose all three to be held out, and I think they win at least one of those.

Samford can afford to drop one more, but it'll be hard with Mercer and Furman on the slate. They'll be favored against Chattanooga and ETSU, but the late season fade away is Samford's MO

Furman can lose one, but they have the toughest slate with Samford, Western and the Citadel.

Two is almost certain. Three is very likely. I'd say we have a 60% chance (better than a coin flip) that we get 4 in.

Are you basing this Samford MO for a late fade on the ETSU debacle of last year? I agree that this was inexplicable and inexcusable, but it was only one game. What other data do you use for this opinion?

[walliver]

Power rankings
1.0) Samford - winning has its privileges
1.1) Wofford - has played toughest conference schedule so far
1.2) Western Carolina - they've been out of the limelight recently
1.5) Furman - toughest conference schedule going forward
5) Mercer - playoffs wait another year, can still ruin Sammy and Western's hopes.
6) The Citadel - not a team to overlook
7) ETSU - still a year or two away.
8) Chattanooga - having a horrible year, but still dangerous if they get hot.
9) VMI - Playing good first half defense

This week:
Wofford at ETSU - a potential trap game, but Ayers should have the T-Dogs ready to play (and hopefully hold on to the ball. Terriers win 31-14
VMI at The Citadel - a big rivalry game, but no one in which you throw away the record books and the Citadel always seems to win. Bullpups beat the Roos21-17
Chatty at Samford - Should be a blow-out on paper, but Trainbirds keep it closer than expected. Bama Pups win however 27-20.
Furman at Western - FU has been putting up gaudy numbers while WCU has been quietly winning during a slow portion of their schedule. The horsies seem to be peaking, while the Cants have lost a little of the preseason swagger. Pukes win 31-17

Playoffs:
Although none of the top 4 truly control their own destiny, any team winning out their FCS games is in good shape. Wofford has the easiest path, having played all 3 of the other teams, while Furman has the hardest with WCU, Sammy and The Citadel left to go. Western and Sammy still have Furman and Mercer to worry about. At least one team will take a big hit this weekend. No-one has a big OOC win unless WCU beats UNC (quite possible) or Wofford beats South Carolina (much less possible), so any SoCon team with 2 conference losses is on the bubble and has to hope the CAA and MVFC beat each other up a lot.
My current guess: Samford, Wofford and Western/FU winner.

[tenNesseeCat]

the Cants have lost a little of the preseason swagger.

? I think we were picked 6th and 7th in the preseason polls.

[walliver]

? I think we were picked 6th and 7th in the preseason polls.

Sorry, I meant to say early season swagger with the big wins over Gardner Webb ( a team which in retrospect has lost to 6 very good teams and has no bad losses), Davidson, Samford, and Chatty. The ETSU and VMI games were much closer at half-time than I expected, but sometimes it is hard to get up for these type games.

[wcugrad95]

The ETSU and VMI games were much closer at half-time than I expected, but sometimes it is hard to get up for these type games.

At halftime, Furman and VMI were in a 14-10 game. Samford beat VMI by the exact same score that WCU did (26-7), and halftime or not the final of ETSU was 49-10 (bigger margin than Furman's 42-10 win over the Bucs). I will give it to you that our offense has slowed down considerably, and think that has a whole lot to do with having an All-American performer out for 3.5 of the last 4 games. But 19 and 39 point wins in conference play to me shouldn't be downplayed. The great thing is we are going to find out given this crazy schedule down the stretch involving WCU, Samford, and Furman playing each other and also having tough tests against the likes of Mercer and Citadel sprinkled in for multiple teams.

As for WCU and UNC, I really hope they have given up on the season and we go down there and play well. And for the SoCon, I still think we are thought of as the 3rd best league, so I'd hope a 6-2 conference record (regardless of which of these 4 teams have it) should be playoff worthy. With 3 conference losses it will be tough.

[Reign of Terrier]

But Furman wins over WCU and The Citadel should be enough to get them in regardless of the Samford or NC Game.

In the above hypothetical, yes, especially if they play Samford tough

Are you basing this Samford MO for a late fade on the ETSU debacle of last year? I agree that this was inexplicable and inexcusable, but it was only one game. What other data do you use for this opinion?

Eyeballing Samford's record in the last 4 D1 games of the season since 2012 (somewhat random sample on the top of my head):
2016: 1-3 (finished 7-5)
2015: 2-2 (finished 6-5)
2014: 3-1 (finished 7-4)
2013: 2-2 (finished 8-5), 2-3 if you include a bad playoff loss to JSU which really didn't reflect the best of a good team that year IMO
2012: 2-2 (finished 7-4)

No one is saying that Samford can't put together a complete game and beat any team in the country on any given saturday, but there's been many situations in the past 5 years where they have been 5-2 or 6-2 and just collapsed in the last few weeks of the season. I'm not doing this to knock Samford or to express sour grapes from this past week, but in 5 of the past 6 years Samford has beaten Wofford (3 of those teams were decent) and gone onto still lay an egg and either miss the playoffs or perform somewhat poorly in the playoffs, losing in the first round.

In the same way that Mercer has a "close game" problem, I think it's fair to say that Samford has a "finish the season" problem (and Wofford has a Samford problem FWIW)

[Reign of Terrier]

VMI has an okay defense considering their offense can't bail them out. But their offense is abysmal. If you score 20 on them you'll win.

[PaladinFan]

VMI has an okay defense considering their offense can't bail them out. But their offense is abysmal. If you score 20 on them you'll win.

Oddly, Furman is one of the nation's leaders in sacks, and has registered at least one sack against every team they've played but VMI.

[Terrier19]

Wofford ranked 8th in STATS Poll, 9th in AGS Poll, and 10th in Coach's Poll........

[SU DOG]

In the above hypothetical, yes, especially if they play Samford tough


Eyeballing Samford's record in the last 4 D1 games of the season since 2012 (somewhat random sample on the top of my head):
2016: 1-3 (finished 7-5)
2015: 2-2 (finished 6-5)
2014: 3-1 (finished 7-4)
2013: 2-2 (finished 8-5), 2-3 if you include a bad playoff loss to JSU which really didn't reflect the best of a good team that year IMO
2012: 2-2 (finished 7-4)

No one is saying that Samford can't put together a complete game and beat any team in the country on any given saturday, but there's been many situations in the past 5 years where they have been 5-2 or 6-2 and just collapsed in the last few weeks of the season. I'm not doing this to knock Samford or to express sour grapes from this past week, but in 5 of the past 6 years Samford has beaten Wofford (3 of those teams were decent) and gone onto still lay an egg and either miss the playoffs or perform somewhat poorly in the playoffs, losing in the first round.

In the same way that Mercer has a "close game" problem, I think it's fair to say that Samford has a "finish the season" problem (and Wofford has a Samford problem FWIW)

I do completely understand that this is your honest opinion, without any disrespect intended. I think it is a stretch to gain that opinion from your "off the top of my head" samples, however. Samford had an almost entirely different coaching staff for 3 of those 5 years. Last year, one of those 3 losses you mentioned was an OT road loss at the SoCon Champion The Citadel. Our last 2 games of 2015 were both SoCon road wins at Wofford and Mercer. Now, we may lay an egg this year, and you can say I told you so, but I can't see your argument as valid from the sample you give here. I realize, however, that nobody has to have proof to have an opinion, and you are certainly free to have yours. All good!

[PaladinFan]

I do completely understand that this is your honest opinion, without any disrespect intended. I think it is a stretch to gain that opinion from your "off the top of my head" samples, however. Samford had an almost entirely different coaching staff for 3 of those 5 years. Last year, one of those 3 losses you mentioned was an OT road loss at the SoCon Champion The Citadel. Our last 2 games of 2015 were both SoCon road wins at Wofford and Mercer. Now, we may lay an egg this year, and you can say I told you so, but I can't see your argument as valid from the sample you give here. I realize, however, that nobody has to have proof to have an opinion, and you are certainly free to have yours. All good!

Whatever Furman's record may be going into that final game, Samford will have a pretty good shot to quiet the critics. Physical run oriented team late in the season hasn't been their forte, but they could rewrite that chapter a bit.

[Reign of Terrier]

I do completely understand that this is your honest opinion, without any disrespect intended. I think it is a stretch to gain that opinion from your "off the top of my head" samples, however. Samford had an almost entirely different coaching staff for 3 of those 5 years. Last year, one of those 3 losses you mentioned was an OT road loss at the SoCon Champion The Citadel. Our last 2 games of 2015 were both SoCon road wins at Wofford and Mercer. Now, we may lay an egg this year, and you can say I told you so, but I can't see your argument as valid from the sample you give here. I realize, however, that nobody has to have proof to have an opinion, and you are certainly free to have yours. All good!

When talking about trends in college football, it's really not fair to go back farther than 5 years (or 4 years) because the personnel is so much different. I'm not making a claim about Samford being bad down the stretch for all time, just in the last half decade or so (the years most relevant in evaluating how good they are). Samford still has 2 tough ones against Mercer and Furman. The last two games of 2015 weren't against impressive; Wofford and Mercer finished 5-6 those years.

I'm not saying a Samford fade down the stretch will definitely happen, but given recent trends they have fell below expectations in the final weeks of the year

[Reign of Terrier]

Another thing about Samford and then I'll drop it: I have no idea why Hatcher insists on running the ball about 28-30 times a game. They have one of the best QBs in the country and some of the best receivers. The fact that they drain clock as much as they do and they run it as much as they do in spite of it not being their strength is a mystery to me.

If you look at how they played ETSU last year (in an upset loss), they only threw the ball about 25 times in that game but only scored twice. Against Wofford last week, they averaged .7 yards a carry but had over 440 yards in the air.

I know the logic behind running the ball is that it can sometimes set up the pass and they average 80 or so yards a game, but if you're samford you really really don't need to run unless you're close to the goal-line or trying to catch the other team off balance.

I would be an infuriated Samford fan watching them.

[FurmanWins!!]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197820-2017-10-28-AGS-GOTW-Week-9

[sudog03]

Samford's record in the last 4 D1 games of the season since 2012 (somewhat random sample on the top of my head):
2016: 1-3 (finished 7-5) 3 of last 4 on road, 1 was Miss. St.
2015: 2-2 (finished 6-5) 2 of last 4 on road, no FBS
2014: 3-1 (finished 7-4) 2 of last 4 on road, 1 was Auburn
2013: 2-2 (finished 8-5), 2-3 if you include a bad playoff loss to JSU which really didn't reflect the best of a good team that year IMO 3 of last 5 on road
2012: 2-2 (finished 7-4) 3 of last 4 on road, 1 was Kentucky

In the same way that Mercer has a "close game" problem, I think it's fair to say that Samford has a "finish the season" problem (and Wofford has a Samford problem FWIW)

Not sure we've had a "finish the season problem" as much as we've had a difficult schedule down the stretch. As my notes indicate this will be the first time since at least 2012 we will have 3 home games out of our last 4 (some seasons 5) games. Also, we already have our FBS opponent out of the way. I'm expecting a strong close to the season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not sure we've had a "finish the season problem" as much as we've had a difficult schedule down the stretch. As my notes indicate this will be the first time since at least 2012 we will have 3 home games out of our last 4 (some seasons 5) games. Also, we already have our FBS opponent out of the way. I'm expecting a strong close to the season.

It's worth noting that I did not count the FBS teams in the assessment (or sub D1 for that matter), so the point about FBS is irrelevant. There's a bad loss in all of these:
2016: ETSU
2015: Furman (finished 4-7)
2014: Wofford (only had 4 D1 wins that year)
2013: you could argue any of their last 3 were bad losses in a different way, sans Furman
2012: loss to unranked chattanooga probably kept them out of the playoffs.

No one is disputing that Samford is a good team; heck, they haven't had a losing season in like a decade (which is better than what anyone else in the conference can say!). But the difference between them being a perennial 6-5 or 7-4 team and a team that can win the socon consistently is their ability to close games against teams that, at the end of the season, they'll have a better record. If you want to attribute it to being away from home, the last 2 season have been exceptional in that Samford hasn't lost a home game yet, but arguably they've only played 2-3 tough teams at the time (Wofford, Citadel and Kennesaw), but none of those games were late in the season, 2 of them were against teams that hadn't made the playoffs in 3+ years and the other was against a team that will likely finish 5-6 or 6-5.

You can add every caveat you want to explain it away ("that team was good, it was on the road, etc), it doesn't excuse the trend, if anything it affirms it.

[sudog03]

Oh, no doubt, I wish we had Wofford every game the rest of the year, that trend is pretty good!

[Reign of Terrier]

So you concede I'm rightxcoffeex

Be careful what you wish for...next time Wofford may not fumble 7 times

[sudog03]

Game I watched saw several of those fumbles forced.

[Reign of Terrier]

Game I watched saw several of those fumbles forced.

4 of them were from the center exchange (the center was playing with a hairline fracture +metal plate +cast in his snapping wrist), so I don't know what game you were watching.

But just to be clear, you have no rebuttal to my original claim, right?

[sudog03]

I do not agree. I think the home/road disparity is significant, especially when you are a team like Samford that is on the geographic fringe of the conference. Those miles add up.

[Reign of Terrier]

I do not agree. I think the home/road disparity is significant, especially when you are a team like Samford that is on the geographic fringe of the conference. Those miles add up.

That argument would make sense if the games mentioned weren't at home or the week after a home game. The only season that fits that MO is 2013, where Samford lost 2 of 3 straight away games to SC. Everyone travels in the Socon. No one complains; if you can't consistently win because of the travel, go to another conference.

Georgia Southern was on the edge of the conference for the longest time, but they didn't use that excuse when they lost games or lost games they shouldn't

[walliver]

That argument would make sense if the games mentioned weren't at home or the week after a home game. The only season that fits that MO is 2013, where Samford lost 2 of 3 straight away games to SC. Everyone travels in the Socon. No one complains; if you can't consistently win because of the travel, go to another conference.

Georgia Southern was on the edge of the conference for the longest time, but they didn't use that excuse when they lost games or lost games they shouldn't

Of course, GSU had the attitude that "No-one beats Georgia Southern but Georgia Southern" and never admitted that the other team might have played well.

[Terrier19]

Oh, no doubt, I wish we had Wofford every game the rest of the year, that trend is pretty good!

Nah....you don't really.......

[SU DOG]

I hate to see this turn into a Samford/Wofford argument. Stats are convenient for debates, but they can be interpreted in different ways to different people. That seems to be the case here. Frankly, I think this discussion would not be happening if the ETSU debacle had not occurred last season. The other Samford losses, that have been mentioned, IMO, even don't hold water for the conclusion that is being proclaimed. Again, some folks will conclude whatever they want. It would be the very same if I said "look at our dominance over Wofford - Samford is obviously a better football program." I can assure you that I wouldn't be THAT stupid. I wish Wofford nothing but wins in the Playoffs, and I just hope we get to make that field also, but our road is much tougher.

Back to the thread topic, I will not list a SoCon Power Ranking because I really don't know which of these top teams are the best - what a logjam! My picks for Saturday(and I would hate even to bet on them) are:
Wofford
The Citadel
SAMFORD
Furman

[SU DOG]

Weather may play a factor in several games Saturday. For our game the forecast is wet, windy, and very COLD. Not what the Bulldogs would prefer. I don't know about other SoCon venues.

[Terrier19]

Weather may play a factor in several games Saturday. For our game the forecast is wet, windy, and very COLD. Not what the Bulldogs would prefer. I don't know about other SoCon venues.

I was just discussing this in another thread. Weather is going to start really playing a part in a lot of games.

[walliver]

Very cold and wet will affect receivers and running backs, but it's not like anybody is playing Montana this week.

[PaladinFan]

Very cold and wet will affect receivers and running backs, but it's not like anybody is playing Montana this week.

Some argue that wet weather actually benefits the backs and receivers because they know where they are going and the defense does not.

[walliver]

Some argue that wet weather actually benefits the backs and receivers because they know where they are going and the defense does not.

Wet weather helps, I am fairly certain, but when it gets very cold, fingers get numb.

On the other hand, we are talking about temps in the 30’s and 40’s, not the bitter cold sometimes encountered in the playoffs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[wcugrad95]

Agree - outside of Samford and ETSU if/when they get behind, most of the rest of the league plays a fairly run-heavy offense. Some are triple-option (Wofford/Citadel), some are more traditional (like Furman and VMI), and some are up-tempo but primarily RPO with a lot of runs (WCU), and others are kind of right between Furman and WCU (Mercer/UTC). I don't expect great weather in Cullowhee for the WCU/Furman game, but it will probably rain with relatively light winds (5-10 MPH). That ***should have*** some - but not a ton - of impact.

This variance in offenses is part of what is really tough on the D coordinators in the league. Nearly all the teams want to successfully run the football, but from all different schemes. Then you have to switch gears from playing somebody like Wofford one week to playing Samford the next. That can't be easy, and has nothing to do with the weather.

[PaladinFan]

I can tell you, I would want no part of Dirks or Wilcox in cold rainy weather.

[Catamount87]

The forecast for Cullowhee at game time is for mid 50s, a light breeze and strong possibility of rain. So just plain miserable weather for the fans.

[PaladinFan]

The forecast for Cullowhee at game time is for mid 50s, a light breeze and strong possibility of rain. So just plain miserable weather for the fans.

Ugh. I don't have any objection to those kinda games, but I know that is probably going to dampen what should be a pretty nice fall weekend in the mountains.

[Reign of Terrier]

VMI plays offense?

[gofurman]

Ugh. I don't have any objection to those kinda games, but I know that is probably going to dampen what should be a pretty nice fall weekend in the mountains.

What often gets lost in this debate ... Rain and weather affecting run v pass ..is the home field advantage. Furman gains as manY WCU fans won't come if rainy and cold. The WCU crowd probably drops by 3k if it rains

bring on the rain. I just wanna win. I want no WCU fans in the stands

[wcugrad95]

What often gets lost in this debate ... Rain and weather affecting run v pass ..is the home field advantage. Furman gains as manY WCU fans won't come if rainy and cold. The WCU crowd probably drops by 3k if it rains

bring on the rain. I just wanna win. I want no WCU fans in the stands

I checked the ticket site, and it looks like maybe 3000 or so tickets are showing available (that is just me eyeballing availability in the sections). That would mean roughly 10k are gone or at least accounted for by season-ticket holders, visitor's allotment, student sections, etc. With the forecast, I am guessing that 10k might be max for actual butts in seats - which is what we count for attendance rather than tickets sold. Heavy rain and it would be less. I am hoping for decent weather because it is a big game, and because it is also homecoming and there are at least some other activities going on - but those don't really matter xlolx

[Smitty]

What often gets lost in this debate ... Rain and weather affecting run v pass ..is the home field advantage. Furman gains as manY WCU fans won't come if rainy and cold. The WCU crowd probably drops by 3k if it rains

bring on the rain. I just wanna win. I want no WCU fans in the stands

Meh, I would guess that Furman fans won't travel as well due to the weather so it will probably be a wash either way

[PaladinFan]

Meh, I would guess that Furman fans won't travel as well due to the weather so it will probably be a wash either way

I don't really think home field advantage at this level is too much of a thing. It is nice not to have to travel, but crowd noise probably isn't much of a factor.

I do think there is something to the visiting fan base though. I would imagine that visiting fans that make a road game in the rain are probably going to be a bit more intense than a lot of the usual suspects for a home game. So, while fewer in number, you are getting the most dedicated and intense fans in the group.

[Terrier19]

We are in the homestretch of the Conference race.......any missteps at this point can be crucial....not only for the conference crown but for the playoffs.....a team can easily slide from winning a piece of the title, to missing the playoffs with just a misstep or 2.....Good luck to everyone.

[PaladinFan]

We are in the homestretch of the Conference race.......any missteps at this point can be crucial....not only for the conference crown but for the playoffs.....a team can easily slide from winning a piece of the title, to missing the playoffs with just a misstep or 2.....Good luck to everyone.

Samford is in prime position, but they still have a gauntlet coming up. They will likely be favored in each remaining game, but none of them are in all likelihood going to be easy. Same for WCU and Furman.

It is nothing against Samford, but I still think UTC is just too talented to be bad all season. There's no metrics to it, I just get the impression at least one time this season something is going to click for them.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't really think home field advantage at this level is too much of a thing. It is nice not to have to travel, but crowd noise probably isn't much of a factor.

I do think there is something to the visiting fan base though. I would imagine that visiting fans that make a road game in the rain are probably going to be a bit more intense than a lot of the usual suspects for a home game. So, while fewer in number, you are getting the most dedicated and intense fans in the group.

I agree with this 100%.

The only place that home field advantage matters is for the big-time programs in FCS (NDSU, JMU,etc); probably about 5% of the product

[dixiechs]

SU Dogs'...Wofford fans are just obviously wishing to get us late season on their schedule going forward...because apparently they cant beat us any other time :P

[Reign of Terrier]

Samford is in prime position, but they still have a gauntlet coming up. They will likely be favored in each remaining game, but none of them are in all likelihood going to be easy. Same for WCU and Furman.

It is nothing against Samford, but I still think UTC is just too talented to be bad all season. There's no metrics to it, I just get the impression at least one time this season something is going to click for them.

My impression of how to beat Samford (and yes Wofford is bad at it). You have to play them close all game but not threaten to suck the clock away. In the games Samford has lost over the last couple of years, or played close, they've run the ball better than they intended and thrown the ball less than their average.

Quite frankly, they can pick apart any team if they want to, but such style of play is high risk for three and outs. I imagine that's why Hatcher tries to run the ball 20-30 times a game, even though they are objectively bad at it. So if they play a team with a soft enough run defense that gives Hatcher and his coaching staff confidence that they can move it on the ground, they're less likely to throw it all over the field and play a more controlled, low scoring game.

So, I think Furman is opportune to beat them, not just because Furman is good, but because they are the level of defensive performance, where if you're Hatcher you have to feel confident. Admittedly, Furman is second in run defense, but their pass defense is so-so.

Mercer definitely has the defensive guns to match Samford, but offensively I'm skeptical. ETSU beat them last year. UTC as already mentioned is itching for a win and they have a decent defense that hasn't had to play an air raid this year.

I have no idea how good this Samford team is. They haven't beaten a quality team that wasn't an option and played good defense. Mercer and Furman play that role, and if you squint UTC does too.

[Reign of Terrier]

SU Dogs'...Wofford fans are just obviously wishing to get us late season on their schedule going forward...because apparently they cant beat us any other time :P

I presume you have some relation to the Hodges Brothers based upon your profile picture so I'll take the opportunity to be a good sport.

They are great players. Without Devlin, Samford's not the same team. Congrats on the win saturday.

My criticism of Samford isn't so much about the players as much as it is about Hatcher. The guy somehow keeps landing head coaching jobs yet consistently chokes at the end of the season (go back to his time at GSU and whereever he was before Samford). He's had Wofford's number (only losing once at Samford/GSU), but that's about it.

[Terrier19]

Samford is in prime position, but they still have a gauntlet coming up. They will likely be favored in each remaining game, but none of them are in all likelihood going to be easy. Same for WCU and Furman.

It is nothing against Samford, but I still think UTC is just too talented to be bad all season. There's no metrics to it, I just get the impression at least one time this season something is going to click for them.

I think Wofford is actually in PRIME position. Having played the top 6 teams in conference with the bottom 3 left, no offense to them, but the Wofford remaining schedule is as friendly as could possibly be to end the season. And, as you mentioned, Samford has a GAUNTLET left to play, and Samford has played 1 less game than the rest of the teams meaning they have 4 conference games left. And to your point about CHatt, I am in total agreement, I actually think this is the weekend Samford gets tripped up. Couple contributing factors being the nasty weather they will have in Alabama this weekend with windy, rainy and cold weather not lending to a passing game, and coming off a HUGE win I expect a (Big Game Let Down). I think Chatt wins the one game they have up their sleeve this weekend. I keep thinking they are going to bite someone, and the conditions point to this one.

[dixiechs]

I presume you have some relation to the Hodges Brothers based upon your profile picture so I'll take the opportunity to be a good sport.

They are great players. Without Devlin, Samford's not the same team. Congrats on the win saturday.

My criticism of Samford isn't so much about the players as much as it is about Hatcher. The guy somehow keeps landing head coaching jobs yet consistently chokes at the end of the season (go back to his time at GSU and whereever he was before Samford). He's had Wofford's number (only losing once at Samford/GSU), but that's about it.


lol, i will see your good sport and raise it...yall have a good team and coach as well. I dont care what Hatcher did pre Samford, and dont share the opinion we fade at end of season ...every season is different. Only Bama has a machine that performs the same year in year out.

[Terrier19]

SU Dogs'...Wofford fans are just obviously wishing to get us late season on their schedule going forward...because apparently they cant beat us any other time :P

Wofford fans are concerned with ETSU this week...and looking forward to another strong finish to the season.......I couldn't care less where we play Samford...just another team in conference.....But I'll tell you this.....I like our spot better than I do yours.....Good luck with Furman, Mercer, ETSU and Chatt to finish out the season..while Wofford finishes up with ETSU, Chatt, and VMI.....

[dixiechs]

I think Wofford is actually in PRIME position. Having played the top 6 teams in conference with the bottom 3 left, no offense to them, but the Wofford remaining schedule is as friendly as could possibly be to end the season. And, as you mentioned, Samford has a GAUNTLET left to play, and Samford has played 1 less game than the rest of the teams meaning they have 4 conference games left. And to your point about CHatt, I am in total agreement, I actually think this is the weekend Samford gets tripped up. Couple contributing factors being the nasty weather they will have in Alabama this weekend with windy, rainy and cold weather not lending to a passing game, and coming off a HUGE win I expect a (Big Game Let Down). I think Chatt wins the one game they have up their sleeve this weekend. I keep thinking they are going to bite someone, and the conditions point to this one.


hmm, no let down after Wofford game on our end...this is prime weekend for retribution to finally beat Chatt. and gauntlet? i dont see it that way...i see a retribution weekend, a revenge weekend(ETSU) and 2 Saturdays taking care of business.. Go Dawgs!

[wcugrad95]

Regarding crowds - I also agree they are not difference makers in terms of the noise and distraction at most FCS games. But the caveat I have there is that most FCS games I go to or see also have less than 10k (often WAY less) in the stands. I have played games in front of small to non-existent crowds, and honestly the motivation for both teams goes in the toilet because you feel like you are at practice (not really - but kinda). A mostly full to packed house on your campus adds a lot to the environment and should at least give the home team some energy. Ask any player and I'd say 10 out of 10 will say they want to play and maybe give a little more effort in front of a big crowd versus a small or quiet one.

For FCS, I also think that is a big reason you should build your stadium to fit your crowd profile - I know most teams have no say in that, but no need for 20k or bigger if you are going to draw 8k or less. ETSU's stadium is a great example. Build it where you can expand, but start out with a size that you can fill (or they have actually been having SRO) when you start out.

[Reign of Terrier]

Let's just say if Samford finishes worse than 8-3 this year I'm gonna start referring to Hatcher as the greatest con man in FCS

[Terrier19]

hmm, no let down after Wofford game on our end...this is prime weekend for retribution to finally beat Chatt. and gauntlet? i dont see it that way...i see a retribution weekend, a revenge weekend(ETSU) and 2 Saturdays taking care of business.. Go Dawgs!

I can appreciate your way of thinking....I would look at it that way as well.....Having seen each of the teams in person I think you have some real tough games ahead.....Good luck on the remainder ofo the season.....We will get to look back after its all said and done and weigh it all out....

[PaladinFan]

I think Wofford is actually in PRIME position. Having played the top 6 teams in conference with the bottom 3 left, no offense to them, but the Wofford remaining schedule is as friendly as could possibly be to end the season. And, as you mentioned, Samford has a GAUNTLET left to play, and Samford has played 1 less game than the rest of the teams meaning they have 4 conference games left. And to your point about CHatt, I am in total agreement, I actually think this is the weekend Samford gets tripped up. Couple contributing factors being the nasty weather they will have in Alabama this weekend with windy, rainy and cold weather not lending to a passing game, and coming off a HUGE win I expect a (Big Game Let Down). I think Chatt wins the one game they have up their sleeve this weekend. I keep thinking they are going to bite someone, and the conditions point to this one.

Well, as we sit here on October 26, Samford holds the tiebreaker over Wofford. So, right now, they are in a better position despite having a tougher schedule going forward.

[Reign of Terrier]

Well, as we sit here on October 26, Samford holds the tiebreaker over Wofford. So, right now, they are in a better position despite having a tougher schedule going forward.

I mean technically there are 4 teams tied for first right now with one loss. As a matter of brute statistics Samford has the hardest path as they have more games to play (no value judgment on their difficulty or assessment of the risk of upsets necessary). Samford, Wofford and Western are in a three-way tie with each other. If Furman beats one of Western and Samford, that may decide the conference championship/autobid anyway.

For better or worse, Furman's the king maker right now. They can either make it themselves or take it away from another team.

[Terrier19]

Well, as we sit here on October 26, Samford holds the tiebreaker over Wofford. So, right now, they are in a better position despite having a tougher schedule going forward.

I understand your perspective.....But as we sit Oct. 26, there is a 3 way tie for 1st place (for Samford to hold a TIEBREAKER they would need to be ACTUALLY TIED, which they are not).....with Samford a game behind...While holding a tiebreak over Wofford (using your analogy), Wofford holds tiebreaks over WCU and Furman who are actually tied at the top with us (4-1).....Sammy has the toughest road remaining and has to play YOU....they are absolutely not in a better spot than us, seeing I know how good you and Mercer are, and having played all 3 I think we know better than anyone this season just how tough those wins will be to come by. Furman is extremely dangerous and this weekend is everything for you guys.

[wcugrad95]

I mean technically there are 4 teams tied for first right now with one loss. As a matter of brute statistics Samford has the hardest path as they have more games to play (no value judgment on their difficulty or assessment of the risk of upsets necessary). Samford, Wofford and Western are in a three-way tie with each other. If Furman beats one of Western and Samford, that may decide the conference championship/autobid anyway.

For better or worse, Furman's the king maker right now. They can either make it themselves or take it away from another team.

It is a crazy scenario given the teams that still have to play each other - NOBODY controls everything simply by winning, and everybody needs something else to happen to be the outright champ.

To be the AQ from the league:
If Samford, WCU, and Wofford win-out, we have a 3-way tie and we go to the judges
Wofford needs to win-out and Samford to lose
Furman needs win-out and Wofford to lose
Samford needs to win-out and WCU to lose
WCU needs to win-out and Wofford to lose

So nobody is full-on in the driver's seat because we all need something else to happen. Unbelievable that realistically we can end with 4 teams with 6-2 or better conference records. We also have tough (and mad) Mercer and Citadel teams that play several of these guys who want to play spoiler because their name is not on that list right now.

[Reign of Terrier]

The YT Quasi-Statistical Bull**** algorithm predicted last week that the most likely outcome was Wofford winning the Socon out-right with a 7-1 record. this week it's predicting Wofford/Furman tied at the top at 7-1, followed by Western at 6-2 and Samford at 5-3.

The only thing consistent with it is that Wofford will win out, Western will drop at least one, and Samford will drop at least one; but really it doesn't say too much because of he volatility of the predicted outcomes as some of them are really close.

If Mercer wins any more Socon games this year, they throw everything off, and I think that is quietly more likely than anyone thinks

[Terrier19]

It is a crazy scenario given the teams that still have to play each other - NOBODY controls everything simply by winning, and everybody needs something else to happen to be the outright champ.

To be the AQ from the league:
If Samford, WCU, and Wofford win-out, we have a 3-way tie and we go to the judges
Wofford needs to win-out and Samford to lose
Furman needs win-out and Wofford to lose
Samford needs to win-out and WCU to lose
WCU needs to win-out and Wofford to lose

So nobody is full-on in the driver's seat because we all need something else to happen. Unbelievable that realistically we can end with 4 teams with 6-2 or better conference records. We also have tough (and mad) Mercer and Citadel teams that play several of these guys who want to play spoiler because their name is not on that list right now.

ABSOLUTELY

[PaladinFan]

I mean technically there are 4 teams tied for first right now with one loss. As a matter of brute statistics Samford has the hardest path as they have more games to play (no value judgment on their difficulty or assessment of the risk of upsets necessary). Samford, Wofford and Western are in a three-way tie with each other. If Furman beats one of Western and Samford, that may decide the conference championship/autobid anyway.

For better or worse, Furman's the king maker right now. They can either make it themselves or take it away from another team.


But, you are right. Furman holds a lot of cards at the moment. The only card they don't hold is Wofford's, who holds the tie breaker over Furman.

Someone on our forum mentioned that when the schedule came out, everyone assumed that Furman and Wofford meeting in week 1 would have benefited Furman. Turns out it probably benefited Wofford.

[ST_Lawson]

https://twitter.com/SamfordU/status/922942026257223681

[BearDownMU]

https://twitter.com/SamfordU/status/922942026257223681

Lol. This is great.

[FurmanWins!!]

Hey guys, if there is anyone who has not voted would appreciate a vote on the game of the week thread if you have a sec., poll closes today:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197820-2017-10-28-AGS-GOTW-Week-9

Thanks xthumbsupx

[FUGameBreaker]

IS IT SATURDAY YET!?!?!

[WCU-Cats!]

https://twitter.com/SamfordU/status/922942026257223681


awesome!!

[gofurman]

But, you are right. Furman holds a lot of cards at the moment. The only card they don't hold is Wofford's, who holds the tie breaker over Furman.

Someone on our forum mentioned that when the schedule came out, everyone assumed that Furman and Wofford meeting in week 1 would have benefited Furman. Turns out it probably benefited Wofford.

I kept trying to say on uffp that Wofford was a horrible matchup for week one. So many said 'no, it's to our advantage , Woffd will not know our Offense!' Look at UGA. Year two vs year one w new coaching. Year one w new coaches. Something like 8 wins. Now top ten. In week one WE didn't know our own offense hardly. And Woff is a top two defense in SCon in my opinion. Horrible to play them game one. Still don't understand why anyone thought playing a senior Woff team early would be a good thing. You can see that our guys at fu would possibly be more ready now

its just football 101 that you are better the longer you practice your plays. Also increases your playbook. That was our first game ever in a 3-4. Why would we want a top ten opponent that week?

[wcugrad95]

But, you are right. Furman holds a lot of cards at the moment. The only card they don't hold is Wofford's, who holds the tie breaker over Furman.

Someone on our forum mentioned that when the schedule came out, everyone assumed that Furman and Wofford meeting in week 1 would have benefited Furman. Turns out it probably benefited Wofford.

I am still trying to understand why Furman "holds any more cards" than any of the other teams? Wofford holds a card on Furman and WCU, WCU holds a card on Samford, and Furman holds a card on??? To me, holding a card comes from beating a team - not still having them on your schedule. I guess you mean they hold the cards because they still get to play 2 of the teams, but they are the only team left who HAS to play 2 teams with only 1 conference loss. That can be good - can be bad. I'd say nobody knows their hand until all the cards are dealt at the end.

[ETSUfan1]

Bye weeks suck. Ready to see some football this weekend. Even in the pouring rain.

[longtimemocfan]

https://twitter.com/SamfordU/status/922942026257223681

This was circulating around all the Chattanooga boards the first of the week. Good motivation material.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't expect UTC to beat Samford, but to be honest with you if they did I'd be less surprised than if they beat anyone else sans ETSU.

Edit: to clarify, Chattanooga's consistent strength on defense that has transitioned from this year to last is pass defense. Their run defense is not good, but they've also played some quality run games (Furman, Citadel, Jacksonville State, maybe Mercer). Chattanooga's offense is still sub-par (if you score 20, you'll probably win).

If Hatcher were smart he would pass the ball 40+ times in this game, but in the past this sort of matchup has seen him lean on the run game and have Hodges throw an average amount of passes (look at ETSU last year, he only threw 25 passes). That's not their strength for putting points on the board and it puzzles me why he does it.

So again, I expect Samford to win this one by 2 touchdowns or so, but if it's closer to if Chattanooga wins, I wouldn't be surprised given how Hatcher has called plays against teams he can move the ball against and has confidence in stopping (last year, ETSU averaged like 7 ppg in socon play but managed to score 15 points(?) to win; that game had no business being that close and it's all on strategy).

Especially with the Samford president's video being a possible locker room material kind of thing and their overall inability to sustain success, this game is not a given for Samford. Chatt may have trouble moving the ball but if they can make this a multiple-possession game (13+ possessions for both teams) look out

[FUBeAR]

Power Ranking
1A-D Furman, Samford, Wofford, Western Carolina
1.1 Mercer




6 CIT
7 ETSU
8 Chatt
9 VMI

PICKS - 'bout time for a few upsets, I believe...


* Sat, Oct 28
Wofford - 14
ETSU - 17
Johnson City, Tenn.
1:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
VMI - 7
The Citadel - 28
Charleston, S.C.
2:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Chattanooga - 27
Samford - 24
Birmingham, Ala.
3:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Furman -31
Western Carolina - 21
Cullowhee, N.C.
3:30 p.m.

[CID1990]

Power Ranking
1A-D Furman, Samford, Wofford, Western Carolina
1.1 Mercer




6 CIT
7 ETSU
8 Chatt
9 VMI

PICKS - 'bout time for a few upsets, I believe...


* Sat, Oct 28
Wofford - 14
ETSU - 17
Johnson City, Tenn.
1:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
VMI - 7
The Citadel - 28
Charleston, S.C.
2:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Chattanooga - 27
Samford - 24
Birmingham, Ala.
3:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Furman -31
Western Carolina - 21
Cullowhee, N.C.
3:30 p.m.



lawl

[FUBeAR]

lawl

Much like I did in ChuckTown on 10/7 and will be again in GVL on 11/11

[CID1990]

Much like I did in ChuckTown on 10/7 and will be again in GVL on 11/11

You’re the biggest homer on this forum

I didn’t realize 11/11 was our next game since I don’t think about you guys that much

Enjoy your 1 win, Nancy

[FUBeAR]

You’re the biggest homer on this forum

I didn’t realize 11/11 was our next game since I don’t think about you guys that much

Enjoy your 1 win, Nancy

5 for me, Gretchen

1 for Mercer

[CID1990]

5 for me, Gretchen

1 for Mercer

Congratulations, Rip Van Winkle

I like to think about us beating Arkansas... in a “my grandpappy got shot off his horse at Shiloh” kind of way, too

[FUBeAR]

my grandpappy got shot off his horse at Shiloh

Sounds about right

[Terrier19]

I am still trying to understand why Furman "holds any more cards" than any of the other teams? Wofford holds a card on Furman and WCU, WCU holds a card on Samford, and Furman holds a card on??? To me, holding a card comes from beating a team - not still having them on your schedule. I guess you mean they hold the cards because they still get to play 2 of the teams, but they are the only team left who HAS to play 2 teams with only 1 conference loss. That can be good - can be bad. I'd say nobody knows their hand until all the cards are dealt at the end.

COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THIS POST

[PaladinFan]

COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THIS POST

Phrase it however you want. Furman is in a position to win a SoCon title and simultaneously knock out two of the other three teams in contention. Whatever analogy you want to use is fine.

[Reign of Terrier]

Power Ranking
1A-D Furman, Samford, Wofford, Western Carolina
1.1 Mercer




6 CIT
7 ETSU
8 Chatt
9 VMI

PICKS - 'bout time for a few upsets, I believe...


* Sat, Oct 28
Wofford - 14
ETSU - 17
Johnson City, Tenn.
1:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
VMI - 7
The Citadel - 28
Charleston, S.C.
2:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Chattanooga - 27
Samford - 24
Birmingham, Ala.
3:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Furman -31
Western Carolina - 21
Cullowhee, N.C.
3:30 p.m.




If ETSU, who lets up more than 5 ypc on defense if you take out the Robert Morris game holds us to below 20 points, I will change my profile picture to something Mercer related for a month.

Similarly, I don't think Chatt can score 27 on Samford.


You’re the biggest homer on this forum



What he said

[Terrier19]

Phrase it however you want. Furman is in a position to win a SoCon title and simultaneously knock out two of the other three teams in contention. Whatever analogy you want to use is fine.

Of the 3 teams left tied at the top not counting Sammy, who is a game back, I would say that Furman's hand is the worst of the 3 IMO (using the card anaolgy) Unless you are getting something on the Turn and the River......If you accomplish your mission of knocking off the other 2 teams in contention (which I am completely fine with BTW), and if Wofford gets the same, Wofford wins the ship and AUTOBID. Western should have you concerned about this weekend, THEY ARE VERY VERY GOOD.

[Reign of Terrier]

Can we just take a moment to recognize how good the Socon is this year?

People think because the Citadel and Chattanooga are down, so is the conference, but I'd argue the conference hasn't been this deep in a very long time.

Wofford made some changes in coaching philosophy between 2015 and 2016 (we actually try to return punts now, more aggressive on special teams, most importantly seniority isn't a factor in personnel decisions) and we see the results after being pretty average between 2013 and 2015. I think Wofford and Furman sucking during that period (the latter being below average for the better part of a decade with one exception) masked how much the Citadel, Western and Chattanooga improved during that time.

I think this Citadel team, even though they make a lot of mistakes on offense would probably be a playoff team for the Socon 2 years ago. Same with Mercer.

Even when App State and Georgia Southern were in the playoffs regularly, I don't remember there ever being a conversation about 4 potential playoff teams. In 2008, people thought App, Wofford and Elon would make it, but the latter choked in the last week against Liberty. Now, the conversation is almost certain that we will get 3 in, and you can't really sleep on the next 3 either.

[FUBeAR]

If ETSU, who lets up more than 5 ypc on defense if you take out the Robert Morris game holds us to below 20 points

Johnson City, TN (37601) Hourly Weather




1:00 PM
SAT
Rain
59°
58°
85%
79%
SSW 6 mph


2:00 PM
SAT
Rain
57°
56°
85%
82%
SW 7 mph


3:00 PM
SAT
Rain
56°
55°
85%
86%
WNW 5 mph


4:00 PM
SAT
Rain
54°
52°
95%
88%
WNW 7 mph



Gonna be VERY WET, a good bit chilly, and somewhat windy.

Will Wofford even be able to snap the ball to the QB? The weather was PERFECT last week and the snap was off-target time after time. Throw a wet, cold ball and wind into that mix and I think Terrier Fans should be worried about getting the plays run at all, rather than how many points the offense that CIT held to less than 100 yards rushing is going to score.

[PaladinFan]

Can we just take a moment to recognize how good the Socon is this year?

People think because the Citadel and Chattanooga are down, so is the conference, but I'd argue the conference hasn't been this deep in a very long time.

Wofford made some changes in coaching philosophy between 2015 and 2016 (we actually try to return punts now, more aggressive on special teams, most importantly seniority isn't a factor in personnel decisions) and we see the results after being pretty average between 2013 and 2015. I think Wofford and Furman sucking during that period (the latter being below average for the better part of a decade with one exception) masked how much the Citadel, Western and Chattanooga improved during that time.

I think this Citadel team, even though they make a lot of mistakes on offense would probably be a playoff team for the Socon 2 years ago. Same with Mercer.

Even when App State and Georgia Southern were in the playoffs regularly, I don't remember there ever being a conversation about 4 potential playoff teams. In 2008, people thought App, Wofford and Elon would make it, but the latter choked in the last week against Liberty. Now, the conversation is almost certain that we will get 3 in, and you can't really sleep on the next 3 either.

Furman really wasn't great in 2013 either. They won a SoCon title, but that was the result of a unsustainable turnover margin on defense and a really good kicker. Furman's offense was actually pretty poor, they just didn't have to do much to score.

[Reign of Terrier]

Johnson City, TN (37601) Hourly Weather




1:00 PM
SAT
Rain
59°
58°
85%
79%
SSW 6 mph


2:00 PM
SAT
Rain
57°
56°
85%
82%
SW 7 mph


3:00 PM
SAT
Rain
56°
55°
85%
86%
WNW 5 mph


4:00 PM
SAT
Rain
54°
52°
95%
88%
WNW 7 mph



Gonna be VERY WET, a good bit chilly, and somewhat windy.

Will Wofford even be able to snap the ball to the QB? The weather was PERFECT last week and the snap was off-target time after time. Throw a wet, cold ball and wind into that mix and I think Terrier Fans should be worried about getting the plays run at all, rather than how many points the offense that CIT held to less than 100 yards rushing is going to score.

The reason why we had trouble getting it to the QB was because Roo Daniel was playing with a cast. He got a hairline fracture against Western and inadvisably came back 2 weeks later after surgery. He's not starting (and he shouldn't have started the second half against Samford IMO)

I honestly can't tell if you're trolling or a homer or both, but Wofford held ETSU to -7 yards rushing last year and less than 100 yards passing. We also had our offensive rhythm thrown off because our starting QB tore his ACL on the third possession and we played kind of conservatively on the offensive side of the ball after that. No doubt ETSU's improved, but you have to be smoking something if you think they'll hold us below 20.

If anything the rain hurts ETSU. We don't need to pass the ball to be effective and though the receivers may have an advantage in that weather, the ETSU OL is one of the worst in the conference in letting up sacks, so even if the receivers do get open, it's likely the pressure and weather still hurts their chances.

I really don't want to hear you talk about facts and statistics when you're so transparently a homer who picks games based upon what you wish will happen as opposed to what's likelyxcoffeex

I'm not saying Wofford will definitely run away with this one, but if they don't it won't be because we can't move the ball. Similarly, it takes stones to predict every team favored but Furman will get upset this week yet maintaining the facade of objectivity.

[FUBeAR]

I really don't want to hear you talk about facts and statistics when you're so transparently a homer...

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/85/94/db/8594db9168a1839e2fac96a44d67af22.jpg

[Reign of Terrier]

I show my work and make my biases known. You don't.

For instance, I think Furman should be favored ever so slightly against Western, but I'm pulling for Western.

I think Samford should be expected to win handily against UTC, but I'm hoping UTC pulls the upset for conference standing reasons (and I think there's a minute reason to think it's slightly more likely than people think).

so that's the big difference between you and me.

And I'm better at math.

[FUBeAR]

I show my work and make my biases known. You don't.

For instance, I think Furman should be favored ever so slightly against Western, but I'm pulling for Western.

I think Samford should be expected to win handily against UTC, but I'm hoping UTC pulls the upset for conference standing reasons (and I think there's a minute reason to think it's slightly more likely than people think).

so that's the big difference between you and me.

And I'm better at math.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzs9fBTRsmM

[Terrier19]

I am dying laughing at the "and I'm better at MAth' comment........xawesomexxawesomexxawesomexxawesome xxawesomex

[wcugrad95]

Phrase it however you want. Furman is in a position to win a SoCon title and simultaneously knock out two of the other three teams in contention. Whatever analogy you want to use is fine.
Is Mercer holding the cards for Alabama because they still have to play and the Bears can knock the Tide out of the National Championship?

My analogy would just be all 4 teams who only have 1 loss have a chance to win a conference championship (or tie for a conference championship). Because multiple games between 3 of them are left, nobody would have any kind of upper hand until after the games are played. I understand what you are trying to say, but you are making it sound like it is Furman's to lose and they have to play two 1-loss SoCon teams on the road in the next few weeks. WCU is in position to knock Furman out, Samford will be in a position to knock them out if Furman were to win tomorrow, and Furman is in a position to knock 1 or both out. This doesn't revolve around Furman - it revolves around all 4 teams and how they do in all their remaining games because any loss by any of the 4 will be big.

[Terrier19]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPTA8HbdLjw

[longtimemocfan]

I don't expect UTC to beat Samford, but to be honest with you if they did I'd be less surprised than if they beat anyone else sans ETSU.

Edit: to clarify, Chattanooga's consistent strength on defense that has transitioned from this year to last is pass defense. Their run defense is not good, but they've also played some quality run games (Furman, Citadel, Jacksonville State, maybe Mercer). Chattanooga's offense is still sub-par (if you score 20, you'll probably win).

If Hatcher were smart he would pass the ball 40+ times in this game, but in the past this sort of matchup has seen him lean on the run game and have Hodges throw an average amount of passes (look at ETSU last year, he only threw 25 passes). That's not their strength for putting points on the board and it puzzles me why he does it.

So again, I expect Samford to win this one by 2 touchdowns or so, but if it's closer to if Chattanooga wins, I wouldn't be surprised given how Hatcher has called plays against teams he can move the ball against and has confidence in stopping (last year, ETSU averaged like 7 ppg in socon play but managed to score 15 points(?) to win; that game had no business being that close and it's all on strategy).

Especially with the Samford president's video being a possible locker room material kind of thing and their overall inability to sustain success, this game is not a given for Samford. Chatt may have trouble moving the ball but if they can make this a multiple-possession game (13+ possessions for both teams) look out


We probably won't beat Samford, but it should be a more competitive game than it would have been a couple of weeks ago. After constant shuffling of the offensive line we seemed to have found a group that works. We were able to run the ball against The Citadel. I still can't believe they held Wofford to 99 yards rushing and lost the game. Some teams that play mirror images of each other can defend that style of offense better. Our run defense wasn't as bad as the stats suggested. A lot of The Citadel's big plays came on runs were one of 3 freshman subs in the secondary couldn't wrap up and get the ball carrier to the ground and they broke free for a long gain. We had 8 tackles for losses which is hard to do against the TO. Luckily we should get the starters that were out last week back for Samford.

I have seen us play Western,Furman, Mercer and The Citadel. I'd say they are all pretty close. If The Citadel could play 4 complete quarters they actually impress me the most on both sides of the ball. Mercer the best overall defense and Furman the best overall offense with The Citadel right their. The problem with them is they haven't really played a complete game yet.
If Newsome is healthy I'd slightly favor Western in their game against Furman, but if he isn't able to go. Pretty much a pick um.

[Terrier19]

We probably won't beat Samford, but it should be a more competitive game than it would have been a couple of weeks ago. After constant shuffling of the offensive line we seemed to have found a group that works. We were able to run the ball against The Citadel. I still can't believe they held Wofford to 99 yards rushing and lost the game. Some teams that play mirror images of each other can defend that style of offense better. Our run defense wasn't as bad as the stats suggested. A lot of The Citadel's big plays came on runs were one of 3 freshman subs in the secondary couldn't wrap up and get the ball carrier to the ground and they broke free for a long gain. We had 8 tackles for losses which is hard to do against the TO. Luckily we should get the starters that were out last week back for Samford.

I have seen us play Western,Furman, Mercer and The Citadel. I'd say they are all pretty close. If The Citadel could play 4 complete quarters they actually impress me the most on both sides of the ball. Mercer the best overall defense and Furman the best overall offense with The Citadel right their. The problem with them is they haven't really played a complete game yet.
If Newsome is healthy I'd slightly favor Western in their game against Furamn, but if he isn't able to go. Pretty much a pick um.

Good Post. Very fair assessments. I actually think you are going to have more success against Samford than you expect. Bad weather also will make things interesting. I think your game will come down to turnovers and who gets them.

[Mocs123]

We haven’t done so well in the turnover department this year.

[tenNesseeCat]

If Newsome is healthy I'd slightly favor Western in their game against Furman, but if he isn't able to go. Pretty much a pick um.

according to the 2-deep for the furman game, newsome, holloway, and young are all back. However, young is listed as #2 behind mathis. is he not 100% or has mathis taken the starter roll? Poindexter is back at #1 at RT, so I guess he's good and healthy. I'm sure newsome is itching to bust a big one.

[BearDownMU]

Is Mercer holding the cards for Alabama because they still have to play and the Bears can knock the Tide out of the National Championship?

Correct. xdrunkyx

[wcugrad95]

@BearDownMU - if there is any game left on the schedule I will pull really hard for the Bears, it will be that one!

[citdog]

What do furman and wcu have in common besides purple? That will both lose to The Citadel in 2017. It's HILARIOUS to hear these two fanbases talking about playoffs...

[SCPALADIN]

What do furman and wcu have in common besides purple? That will both lose to The Citadel in 2017. It's HILARIOUS to hear these two fanbases talking about playoffs...

You know what's even more HILARIOUS? Your program has only been to the playoffs 5 times in 39 years and mustered a paltry 2 wins. Yet, you have the audacity to try and project superiority over a program (Furman) with 16 playoff appearances, with 18 wins and a National Championship. Sadly, WCU has more playoff wins in their one appearance (1983) than your Bulldogs in 5.
Put the bottle down and enjoy your 11th straight year with the Silver Shako...expecting a beat-down by the Bulldogs.

[citdog]

You know what's even more HILARIOUS? Your program has only been to the playoffs 5 times in 39 years and mustered a paltry 2 wins. Yet, you have the audacity to try and project superiority over a program (Furman) with 16 playoff appearances, with 18 wins and a National Championship. Sadly, WCU has more playoff wins in their one appearance (1983) than your Bulldogs in 5.
Put the bottle down and enjoy your 11th straight year with the Silver Shako...expecting a beat-down by the Bulldogs.

How many years in a row will the victories over these two purple squads be?? ALL furman has is ANCIENT HISTORY. All cullowhee community college has is even MORE ancient history. You should be expecting a beat down because you have sucked ALWAYS but even more since you kicked JESUS off campus...

[Reign of Terrier]

We probably won't beat Samford, but it should be a more competitive game than it would have been a couple of weeks ago. After constant shuffling of the offensive line we seemed to have found a group that works. We were able to run the ball against The Citadel. I still can't believe they held Wofford to 99 yards rushing and lost the game. Some teams that play mirror images of each other can defend that style of offense better. Our run defense wasn't as bad as the stats suggested. A lot of The Citadel's big plays came on runs were one of 3 freshman subs in the secondary couldn't wrap up and get the ball carrier to the ground and they broke free for a long gain. We had 8 tackles for losses which is hard to do against the TO. Luckily we should get the starters that were out last week back for Samford.

I have seen us play Western,Furman, Mercer and The Citadel. I'd say they are all pretty close. If The Citadel could play 4 complete quarters they actually impress me the most on both sides of the ball. Mercer the best overall defense and Furman the best overall offense with The Citadel right their. The problem with them is they haven't really played a complete game yet.
If Newsome is healthy I'd slightly favor Western in their game against Furman, but if he isn't able to go. Pretty much a pick um.

I was personally puzzled to see the rushing stats Chatt was able to put forward against Citadel. Citadel has one of the best run defenses in the country. We'll have to see how Chatt does over the next two weeks running the ball before we can get a good assessment of how they'll look going forward.

[citdog]

I was personally puzzled to see the rushing stats Chatt was able to put forward against Citadel. Citadel has one of the best run defenses in the country. We'll have to see how Chatt does over the next two weeks running the ball before we can get a good assessment of how they'll look going forward.

It's THE Citadel. Ask your kin.

[Reign of Terrier]

After consulting with my kin the only thing we could conclude was

20-16

[citdog]

After consulting with my kin the only thing we could conclude was

20-16

Got Samford?

[ElCid]

I was personally puzzled to see the rushing stats Chatt was able to put forward against Citadel. Citadel has one of the best run defenses in the country. We'll have to see how Chatt does over the next two weeks running the ball before we can get a good assessment of how they'll look going forward.

Not really overly puzzled. Their rushing was higher than their average no doubt, but they did have a 61 yarder in the first qtr which skewed their average up pretty big. It happens. Per quarter they rushed for 80, 38, 1, 24. I will take that. Their yards per carry was pretty high, but they only had 50 snaps all game. I could care less about YPC when we hold them to under 300 YPG total offense. Plus they were no doubt trying to put more emphasis on their running game. They are getting better and their line is improving. I would worry if I were Samford and ETSU. Wofford will probably handle it.

[gofurman]

Got Samford?

Good grief man. Does THE Citadel 'got Samford'? No, they got WAXED. beaten by Wofford too. You will lose to one or both of Furman and Western. Finish 5-6 by playing Newberry and PC. Ah, Newberry and PC. That helps get 5 wins. Look Citadel ain't horrid (strong run D) but they ain't good. Might want to temper those heckles until you win a decent game (Mercer, Furman, Wofford, Western or Sammy).

Two shots left to beat 'somebody'. Furman and WCU. Until then, enjoy beating Newberry.

And Furman was in the national title game THREE times. 85. 88. And 2001. You have NEVER been there. 16 years ago is better than N. E. V. E. R. Also we went deep in the playoffs in 2004 and very deep in 2005

Tell you what. Let's see who wins between FU and THE Citadel in a few weeks - until then let's table this.

[citdog]

Good grief man. Does THE Citadel 'got Samford'? No, they got WAXED. beaten by Wofford too. You will lose to one or both of Furman and Western. Finish 5-6 by playing Newberry and PC. Ah, Newberry and PC. That helps get 5 wins. Look Citadel ain't horrid (strong run D) but they ain't good. Might want to temper those heckles until you win a decent game (Mercer, Furman, Wofford, Western or Sammy).

Two shots left to beat 'somebody'. Furman and WCU. Until then, enjoy beating Newberry.

And Furman was in the national title game THREE times. 85. 88. And 2001. You have NEVER been there. 16 years ago is better than N. E. V. E. R. Also we went deep in the playoffs in 2004 and very deep in 2005

Tell you what. Let's see who wins between FU and THE Citadel in a few weeks - until then let's table this.

When is the last time furman beat The Citadel?

[CID1990]

Good grief man. Does THE Citadel 'got Samford'? No, they got WAXED. beaten by Wofford too. You will lose to one or both of Furman and Western. Finish 5-6 by playing Newberry and PC. Ah, Newberry and PC. That helps get 5 wins. Look Citadel ain't horrid (strong run D) but they ain't good. Might want to temper those heckles until you win a decent game (Mercer, Furman, Wofford, Western or Sammy).

Two shots left to beat 'somebody'. Furman and WCU. Until then, enjoy beating Newberry.

And Furman was in the national title game THREE times. 85. 88. And 2001. You have NEVER been there. 16 years ago is better than N. E. V. E. R. Also we went deep in the playoffs in 2004 and very deep in 2005

Tell you what. Let's see who wins between FU and THE Citadel in a few weeks - until then let's table this.

In spite of it all

Firmen still sucks


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[PaladinFan]

according to the 2-deep for the furman game, newsome, holloway, and young are all back. However, young is listed as #2 behind mathis. is he not 100% or has mathis taken the starter roll? Poindexter is back at #1 at RT, so I guess he's good and healthy. I'm sure newsome is itching to bust a big one.

Furman also looks like they will have RBs Triston Luke and Devin Wynn back in the lineup for the first time in weeks. I think that will be the first time since ETSU Furman’s had its entire backfield.

Also reported that Blazejowski is recovered from the knee injury he suffered against UTC, so that’s good news as well.

[OL FU]

It's THE Citadel. Ask your kin.

Welcome Back, Dick!xlolxxthumbsupx

[gofurman]

Furman also looks like they will have RBs Triston Luke and Devin Wynn back in the lineup for the first time in weeks. I think that will be the first time since ETSU Furman’s had its entire backfield.
K
Also reported that Blazejowski is recovered from the knee injury he suffered against UTC, so that’s good news as well.
Last 3 or so games WCU had a true FR at right tackle. They say the rSR is back today. Drats

hope not

[wcugrad95]

The FR has played a fair bit, as Poindexter has been playing hurt or missing games all season. Besides Poindexter, the entire line and most of the second team will be back next year. Line play and D has been a big part of the turnaround from the abysmal 2016 campaign. But some of our biggest tests (including today) are in front of us for both those groups.

[SCPALADIN]

Welcome Back, Dick!xlolxxthumbsupx
I think citdog's account was hacked by Chattownmoc while he was in purgatory.

[longtimemocfan]

I was personally puzzled to see the rushing stats Chatt was able to put forward against Citadel. Citadel has one of the best run defenses in the country. We'll have to see how Chatt does over the next two weeks running the ball before we can get a good assessment of how they'll look going forward.

I’m sure a lot were puzzled about those rushing stats as The Citadel leads the conference in rushing defense. Heck you guy’s just managed 99 yards against them. The 143 yards we got were on just 19 carries. We’re going from the best defense against the run to the worst. A lot of the rushing success is finally getting a cohesive unit along the offensive line plus Bridges is a rhythm runner and had been splitting time with another running back who is now hurt. Like you say we’ll see if we can sustain that momentum this week.

[longtimemocfan]

Agree with your post. As stated earlier The Citadel has a good team, but you have to play 2 complete halves. Your missed opportunity’s early in the game almost cost you in the end.

This was in reply to El Cid’s

[FUBeAR]

The reason why we had trouble getting it to the QB was because Roo Daniel was playing with a cast. He got a hairline fracture against Western and inadvisably came back 2 weeks later after surgery. He's not starting (and he shouldn't have started the second half against Samford IMO)

I honestly can't tell if you're trolling or a homer or both, but Wofford held ETSU to -7 yards rushing last year and less than 100 yards passing. We also had our offensive rhythm thrown off because our starting QB tore his ACL on the third possession and we played kind of conservatively on the offensive side of the ball after that. No doubt ETSU's improved, but you have to be smoking something if you think they'll hold us below 20.

If anything the rain hurts ETSU. We don't need to pass the ball to be effective and though the receivers may have an advantage in that weather, the ETSU OL is one of the worst in the conference in letting up sacks, so even if the receivers do get open, it's likely the pressure and weather still hurts their chances.

I really don't want to hear you talk about facts and statistics when you're so transparently a homer who picks games based upon what you wish will happen as opposed to what's likelyxcoffeex

I'm not saying Wofford will definitely run away with this one, but if they don't it won't be because we can't move the ball. Similarly, it takes stones to predict every team favored but Furman will get upset this week yet maintaining the facade of objectivity.

Roo Daniels starting at Center for Woffy & Bucs D stops Woffy on 1st possession.

YT wrong so far.

* No math required

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford up 3-0. ETSU with -3 yards overall. Roo playing with a softer cast. Also the camera angles in this game are the worst I've ever seen in my life. They're shooting through the endzone and there's a net and the camera isn't even following the play

- - - Updated - - -


Roo Daniels starting at Center for Woffy & Bucs D stops Woffy on 1st possession.

YT wrong so far.

* No math required

Once again, using anecdote as data...Wofford will over 100 yards of offense on two possessions.

[FUBeAR]

Once again, using anecdote as data...Wofford will over 100 yards of offense on two possessions.And on pace to score 12 points today. Darnit, my 14 point estimate may have been too high.

[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU kicks a 50 yard field goal, game knotted at 3. ETSU with 27 yards in 2 drives. Wofford with 113. Wofford just needs to finish possessions with points and we'll be okay.

[Reign of Terrier]

Touchdown. Wofford on a quick drive, 3 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. 10-3 Wofford 10+ minutes left in the second quarter.

Wofford with 188 yards on 3 drives, ETSU with 27 with 2.

[Reign of Terrier]

Touchdown ETSU. Game tied at 10 with 4 minutes left in the half. Terriers need to not leave points on the field

[ETSUfan1]

Go Bucs!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Touchdown Wofford. ETSU doesn't have the defense to beat us I don't think, but it's still a close game

[ElCid]

Agree with your post. As stated earlier The Citadel has a good team, but you have to play 2 complete halves. Your missed opportunity’s early in the game almost cost you in the end.

This was in reply to El Cid’s

Yup. The boys have had some concentration issues in addition to some experience issues.

[Reign of Terrier]

Somehow, ETSU's QB struts out of bounds but the officials don't stop the clock. Wofford has to burn a timeout. ETSU punting with 57 seconds left, Wofford with one timeout

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford up 17-10 at the half. I'm disappointed in Wofford's playcalling as we're tripling them up in terms yardage but only up a touchdown. ETSU gets ball in the second. Wofford's averaging 50 yards a possession, ETSU 15. Credit to ETSU, they are playing better than last year but they're going to need Wofford to make mistakes in the second half (turnovers, leaving points on the field, etc) to keep this one from breaking out

[Reign of Terrier]

Touchdown ETSU. Wofford's coaches are losing this one on the offensive end.

- - - Updated - - -

ETSU and Wofford tied at 17.

[PaladinFan]

Looking at the radar and the rain coming down in Johnson City, Furman and WCU is going to play in some steady weather in the mountains.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford gets a strip sack that they return to the ETSU 7, and they pound it in 2 plays later. Wofford up 24-17 with about 4 minutes left in the 3rd.

[PaladinFan]

I am fairly comfortable in my opinion that Wofford was fortunate to play Furman and Mercer in the first two weeks of the season. Those may be very different outcomes if played in late October instead of early September.

[Reign of Terrier]

I am fairly comfortable in my opinion that Wofford was fortunate to play Furman and Mercer in the first two weeks of the season. Those may be very different outcomes if played in late October instead of early September.

I agree. But a razor's edge separates all of the top 5 IMO. Wofford's up 31-17 right now, but it would be much bigger if our OC wasn't terrible

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford wins 31-24. Shouldn't be that close. I'm giving stronger weight to our offensive coordinator being incompetent in my priors going forward

[Terrier19]

I am fairly comfortable in my opinion that Wofford was fortunate to play Furman and Mercer in the first two weeks of the season. Those may be very different outcomes if played in late October instead of early September.

You are free to feel as comfortable as you wish, I wouldn't bat an eye to play you again. Furman is a good team. But they didn't beat Wofford. So as comfortable as you are, you aren't as comfortable as the Wofford fans that actually saw their team actually WIN against yours. No moral victories here my friend. Your team simply joins the ranks of ETSU, and Citadel and the others that CAME CLOSE and are COMFORTABLE with hyperbolic theoretical games that happen only in the mind of fans with delusions of granduer. Worry about WCU today....

[PaladinFan]

Furman scores on 50 yard TD throw from Blazejowski to Schumpert. 7-0 Paladins.

That load option pop pass Furman runs to the TE is the single most dangerous play call in SoCon football. Furman runs it once a game and it is almost always a TD.

The weather is definitely a factor in this one. Several inches of water on the field.

[Terrier19]

Chatt up 14-7 on Samford....30 seconds left in 1st half

[longtimemocfan]

Mocs with a pick 6 Lead 14-7 Half.

[Terrier19]

Make that 14-7 Chatt lead at half.....

[Terrier19]

Tyrie Adams being carted off the field....

[ElCid]

Tyrie Adams being carted off the field....

Hope it isn't too bad. If it is, bye bye WCU.

[Terrier19]

Hope it isn't too bad. If it is, bye bye WCU.

He wasn't putting any pressure on his leg.....AT ALL

[PaladinFan]

He wasn't putting any pressure on his leg.....AT ALL

It looked like he twisted his ankle on the sack. I’d be surprised to see him again.

[Terrier19]

Oddly enough....it may have helped WEstern's offense as they have gone to the ground and pounding Furman's Defense on this drive....

[ElCid]

All done in Chucktown. 21-3 final. Could have been much worse.....Dogs missed 4 FGs....all inside 20.....WTF. To be fair, VMI did block one, but the others were just missed. 407 yards rushing for Dogs, not bad. Held VMI to 72 rushing and 147 passing. Not to shabby on D. Little Hodges is a big boy.

[Reign of Terrier]

Chattanooga up 20-7 on Samford. I have no doubt Chatt is improving this year but Hatcher appears to be the biggest con man in FCS right now.

[PaladinFan]

Paladins rumble with a couple full back dives for 80 yards for a TD on their opening drive. 14-0 Furman.

[Smitty]

Paladins rumble with a couple full back dives for 80 yards for a TD on their opening drive. 14-0 Furman.

Yep an unfortunate injury puts Furman in a fantastic spot.

[FUBeAR]

I agree. But a razor's edge separates all of the top 5 IMO. Wofford's up 31-17 right now, but it would be much bigger if our OC wasn't terrible

*top 8


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

Yep an unfortunate injury puts Furman in a fantastic spot.

It was unfortunate to see Adams go down, but injuries happen. WCU hadn’t really moved the ball well regardless of who was back there.

This is turned into exactly the game Furman wants it to be.

[Smitty]

It was unfortunate to see Adams go down, but injuries happen. WCU hadn’t really moved the ball well regardless of who was back there.

This is turned into exactly the game Furman wants it to be.

Glad that Furman was hoping for an injury

The game was still within hand when Tyrie was in even as both offenses were sluggish.

[PaladinFan]

Glad that Furman was hoping for an injury

The game was still within hand when Tyrie was in even as both offenses were sluggish.

Furman wants a lead and to turn this into a physical run game between the tackles. No one wants injuries.

[Reign of Terrier]

Chattanooga is making Samford look downright incompetent right now

[PaladinFan]

Furman up 21-0 heading to 4th Q.

[PaladinFan]

Furman stops WCU on a 4th down conversion in Catamount territory. A score here probably seals it.

[Smitty]

Furman stops WCU on a 4th down conversion in Catamount territory. A score here probably seals it.

As if the 21-0, 2nd string QB, and terrible weather conditions (not favorable for large passing plays) weren't enough

[PaladinFan]

As if the 21-0, 2nd string QB, and terrible weather conditions (not favorable for large passing plays) weren't enough

the game is over when it’s over.

I’ve seen enough weird stuff in my years as a Furman fan.

[PaladinFan]

UTC kids a FG with 19 seconds left to go up two.

[kdinva]

Chattanooga is making Samford look downright incompetent right now

I thought only VMI could be made to look incompetent.....

[PaladinFan]

Antonio Wilcox with a long TD run. Furman up 28-0.

Maybe we’ll get some top 25 votes this week.

[PaladinFan]

UTC knocks off Samford.

[BearDownMU]

UTC knocks off Samford.

One of the worst football games I've ever watched

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman will be number one in my power ratings next week. Even though Wofford edged them in the head to head and all bets are off in the event of a rematch, they've shown their colors.

[Schism55]

Samford WTF xconfusedx

[PaladinFan]

Furman will be number one in my power ratings next week. Even though Wofford edged them in the head to head and all bets are off in the event of a rematch, they've shown their colors.

Homerism aside, this is the most impressive SoCon win of the season in my book.

I know the weather and injuries played a factor, but Furman has pretty much overwhelmed the Western offense all game.

As someone on our forum noted, this game was out of Clay Hendrix Air Force how to play in nasty weather book.

[Reign of Terrier]

Samford WTF xconfusedx

As I was saying all week, they fade in the second half of the season.

they still have Furman and Mercer and those won't be easy either.

[PaladinFan]

With 1:39 seconds left in the game, Western Carolina finally scores.

[Reign of Terrier]

In other news, for back to back weeks Wofford held an opponent to below 20 yards rushing.

Regression to the mean run defense.

[Mocs123]

Glad we got the win today, and beat a pretty good Samford team.

I have to say congratulations to Clax Hendrix and Furman. It's amazing what a difference a coach makes.

[PaladinFan]

Glad we got the win today, and beat a pretty good Samford team.

I have to say congratulations to Clax Hendrix and Furman. It's amazing what a difference a coach makes.

Congrats on a big one today too. I figured at some point UTC would put it together.

- - - Updated - - -

28-6 Final.

I’d have liked to have seen these two offenses in better weather.

[longtimemocfan]

One of the worst football games I've ever watched

I don’t care how pretty or ugly it was a win is a win.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think this is the outcome you would expect if you're Furman if you knew Adams would go out and the rain.

I'm not saying that to take away from the Furman win. Quite the contrary.

For this game to be competitive, Western had to match Furman's offensive prowess with their own. I want to say that Western let up 4+ yards per carry on defense *going into* this game (it's probably worse now). So I'm not surprised Furman moved the ball on them in the rain/mud.

The weather likely effected both teams equally, but both the weather and the Adams injury were just too much for the Catamounts. Furman's defense isn't a push over by any means (they are in the top half of the conference), but I have a hard time believing they'd hold a full-strength western team to one score.

So in short, I think this outcome is what you would expect given the rain and injury. that's not to say Western would win in different circumstances, but it would be a much different game.

But Furman is still playing the best ball in the conference right now.

[gofurman]

As if the 21-0, 2nd string QB, and terrible weather conditions (not favorable for large passing plays) weren't enough
I hate that Adams got hurt. Stinks. Hope he is ok !

But weather? It’s football - you guys are more a speed team, I know. But that’s the chance you take w speed ... you aren’t as equipped to win in rain. If you can’t win in rain in football well... ITS FOOTBALL

Not being mean at all. Sorry about Adams. But don’t blame weather. Glad to see both FU and WCU improving. !

[gofurman]

Yep an unfortunate injury puts Furman in a fantastic spot.

Your defense let’s us roll off 70 yard fullback runs bc your starting QB is out? I get the momentum stuff but the Furman OL started wearing the WCU DL. The WCU ESPN announcers said the same. “Furman is gashing us up the middle ..”

I do Hope Adams is ok !

[citdog]

Your defense let’s us roll off 70 yard fullback runs bc your starting QB is out? I get the momentum stuff but the Furman OL started wearing the WCU DL. The WCU ESPN announcers said the same. “Furman is gashing us up the middle ..”

I do Hope Adams is ok !

Can't wait to whip both of you purple ****s...

[gofurman]

Antonio Wilcox with a long TD run. Furman up 28-0.

Maybe we’ll get some top 25 votes this week.

Furman with SIX WINS IN A ROW? Just beat number 18 at their place at homecoming. 6-2 in FCS. Two losses to top ten Wofford by one point and to top ten Elon by a last second FG. Why would anyone vote for us. Sheesh. We ought to be about number 20 imho

[Reign of Terrier]

Furmans ypc went up like a yard after this game

[PaladinFan]

I think this is the outcome you would expect if you're Furman if you knew Adams would go out and the rain.

I'm not saying that to take away from the Furman win. Quite the contrary.

For this game to be competitive, Western had to match Furman's offensive prowess with their own. I want to say that Western let up 4+ yards per carry on defense *going into* this game (it's probably worse now). So I'm not surprised Furman moved the ball on them in the rain/mud.

The weather likely effected both teams equally, but both the weather and the Adams injury were just too much for the Catamounts. Furman's defense isn't a push over by any means (they are in the top half of the conference), but I have a hard time believing they'd hold a full-strength western team to one score.

So in short, I think this outcome is what you would expect given the rain and injury. that's not to say Western would win in different circumstances, but it would be a much different game.

But Furman is still playing the best ball in the conference right now.

No question the weather played a factor. Of course, both teams knew it was going to be ugly weather, and both teams played in it.

WCU is a bit like Samford in that I think their offense struggles to adapt if a key player is missing or the conditions aren’t quite right.

Either way, Furman overwhelmed a top 20 team on the road in miserable conditions. A really gritty win by the Paladins.

- - - Updated - - -


Can't wait to whip both of you purple ****s...

Fortunately, we get an off week and the game is in Greenville.

[woffordgrad94]

I don’t care how pretty or ugly it was a win is a win.
Very true. There is no such thing as a bad win!

[woffordgrad94]

Samford WTF xconfusedx
ANY GIVEN SATURDAY!!!!!!

[woffordgrad94]

Power Ranking
1A-D Furman, Samford, Wofford, Western Carolina
1.1 Mercer




6 CIT
7 ETSU
8 Chatt
9 VMI

PICKS - 'bout time for a few upsets, I believe...


* Sat, Oct 28
Wofford - 14
ETSU - 17
Johnson City, Tenn.
1:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
VMI - 7
The Citadel - 28
Charleston, S.C.
2:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Chattanooga - 27
Samford - 24
Birmingham, Ala.
3:00 p.m.


* Sat, Oct 28
Furman -31
Western Carolina - 21
Cullowhee, N.C.
3:30 p.m.



Wofford won. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

[woffordgrad94]

Johnson City, TN (37601) Hourly Weather




1:00 PM
SAT
Rain
59°
58°
85%
79%
SSW 6 mph


2:00 PM
SAT
Rain
57°
56°
85%
82%
SW 7 mph


3:00 PM
SAT
Rain
56°
55°
85%
86%
WNW 5 mph


4:00 PM
SAT
Rain
54°
52°
95%
88%
WNW 7 mph



Gonna be VERY WET, a good bit chilly, and somewhat windy.

Will Wofford even be able to snap the ball to the QB? The weather was PERFECT last week and the snap was off-target time after time. Throw a wet, cold ball and wind into that mix and I think Terrier Fans should be worried about getting the plays run at all, rather than how many points the offense that CIT held to less than 100 yards rushing is going to score.
Well, we scored 31 points home slice. Question answered?

[woffordgrad94]

Well, as we sit here on October 26, Samford holds the tiebreaker over Wofford. So, right now, they are in a better position despite having a tougher schedule going forward.
As I sit right now, Wofford is on top of the SoCon standings. We hold the tiebreaker over FU. And as for everyone thinking it would be a different outcome if Wofford and Furman played now, well too bad you’ll probably never know. The two teams are not really that likely to meet again. Oh, and Wofford DEFINITELY doesn’t have to worry about the Mercer Cubs anymore...they likely ain’t getting in the playoffs...so whether or not Mercer could win a rematch at this point is unimportant.

[PaladinFan]

As I sit right now, Wofford is on top of the SoCon standings. We hold the tiebreaker over FU. And as for everyone thinking it would be a different outcome if Wofford and Furman played now, well too bad you’ll probably never know. The two teams are not really that likely to meet again. Oh, and Wofford DEFINITELY doesn’t have to worry about the Mercer Cubs anymore...they likely ain’t getting in the playoffs...so whether or not Mercer could win a rematch at this point is irrelevant.

Wofford is tied on top of the standings with Furman. Both teams are on top.

The “tiebreaker” matters as it pertains to the autobid. First place is first place.

[woffordgrad94]

I am fairly comfortable in my opinion that Wofford was fortunate to play Furman and Mercer in the first two weeks of the season. Those may be very different outcomes if played in late October instead of early September.
Too bad you’ll probably never know, isn’t it? As I so eloquently laid out in the above post...

[woffordgrad94]

The autobid is very important in that if Wofford wins the next two, we’ll get a seed and a bye. Furman most likely will not. Basically, FU needs a Chatty upset, because VMI ain’t beating anybody. But just rememberer that Chatty must come to THEE DOGGHOUSE! RUFF! RUFF! RUFF! ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!


this is fun

[Reign of Terrier]

I won't say that it's unlikely we'll play Furman again until the brackets come out and we're nowhere near each other

[wcugrad95]

I hate that Adams got hurt. Stinks. Hope he is ok !

But weather? It’s football - you guys are more a speed team, I know. But that’s the chance you take w speed ... you aren’t as equipped to win in rain. If you can’t win in rain in football well... ITS FOOTBALL

Not being mean at all. Sorry about Adams. But don’t blame weather. Glad to see both FU and WCU improving. !

No excuses - WCU obviously is better with Adams in the game, but you have to have next-man-up mentality. And weather is weather. If you want to compete for championships and playoff bids you have to adapt and execute. We didn't and Furman played very well. Hats off to the Paladins, and hopefully Adams is ok and we can recover from this loss.

[PaladinFan]

Too bad you’ll probably never know, isn’t it? As I so eloquently laid out in the above post...

There’s a pretty good chance that if both teams are in the post season, they’ll be in a position to play one another.

Actually, if you had to handicap it, as of today Furman is the most likely SoCon opponent Wofford will see for a second time.

[PaladinFan]

No excuses - WCU obviously is better with Adams in the game, but you have to have next-man-up mentality. And weather is weather. If you want to compete for championships and playoff bids you have to adapt and execute. We didn't and Furman played very well. Hats off to the Paladins, and hopefully Adams is ok and we can recover from this loss.

Is there a report?

Looked like he rolled his ankle from the replay. He was walking around on the sidelines in the second half, wasn’t he?

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd say the probability of Furman v. Kennesaw in the first round against Wofford in the second is pretty high right now

[woffordgrad94]

Okay, last post tonight. In all seriousness, I have much respect for Furman and what they’ve done this year. I really don’t want to see them again! But if we do, I also still have confidence my dogs could still win. In the SoCon you can’t assume anything, except that VMI will lose. And I have a newfound worry now about the Chatty game given the Mocs’ win against Samford. Wofford better come to play next week. A lot is on the line and Chatty is definitely capable of playing spoiler. And finally, I’m just having fun with you guys...I harbor no hard feelings toward anyone- will exempt maybe one clown poster who just resurfaced that I shall leave unnamed...

[woffordgrad94]

I'd say the probability of Furman v. Kennesaw in the first round against Wofford in the second is pretty high right now
Wow, I guess I stand corrected by two posters now. I’d rather not see a rematch with a SoCon team, but Kennesaw probably wouldn’t win this. So Whatever. BRING THEM ON!

[wcugrad95]

Is there a report?

Looked like he rolled his ankle from the replay. He was walking around on the sidelines in the second half, wasn’t he?

None that I have seen or heard. Kind of snake-bitten. We get Newsome back and lose Adams in such a big game. But nobody is going to feel sorry for us whether he plays or doesn't. Doubt anybody outside the actual team will know anything really until the team comes out for warm-ups next Saturday - unless it is bad and they make some kind of announcement.

[FUBeAR]

Wofford won. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!Wasn’t it Meatloaf who said 3 out of 4 ain’t bad?

Who else picked the Mocs this week? Just me & 19, The Woffy Fan who actually understands The game of Football. Almost hit that score & spread on the money.

Pretty close on the score/spread for CIT/VMI also.

Didn’t anticipate the Adams injury, so overestimated WCU’s O. Got the Dins about right though.

As for the yapdogs, my Cray-based model failed to account for ETSU handing the ball over on their own 6 & for AirAyers 75 yard, 1:44 TOP TD drive that included only 1 run for 4 yards. I’ll make some formula adjustments before next week when I pick Chatt to win again.

Regardless, I know you, YT, and 19 were sweatin’ it a whole lot more than I was when ETSU was driving deep into anklebiter territory for the GAME-WINNING SCORE late in the 4th quarter.

https://www.adventurebikerider.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/nervous-sweating-759x493.jpg

[tenNesseeCat]

No one wants injuries.

Except for furman players nearly every time wcu would hit a good play. How many "injuries" did furman players have on wcu big gains?

[PaladinFan]

Except for furman players nearly every time wcu would hit a good play. How many "injuries" did furman players have on wcu big gains?

The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.

[woffordgrad94]

Wasn’t it Meatloaf who said 3 out of 4 ain’t bad?

Who else picked the Mocs this week? Just me & 19, The Woffy Fan who actually understands The game of Football. Almost hit that score & spread on the money.

Pretty close on the score/spread for CIT/VMI also.

Didn’t anticipate the Adams injury, so overestimated WCU’s O. Got the Dins about right though.

As for the yapdogs, my Cray-based model failed to account for ETSU handing the ball over on their own 6 & for AirAyers 75 yard, 1:44 TOP TD drive that included only 1 run for 4 yards. I’ll make some formula adjustments before next week when I pick Chatt to win again.

Regardless, I know you, YT, and 19 were sweatin’ it a whole lot more than I was when ETSU was driving deep into anklebiter territory for the GAME-WINNING SCORE late in the 4th quarter.

https://www.adventurebikerider.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/nervous-sweating-759x493.jpg
Airplane II: The Sequel. Good movie. Funny. But not as great as the original, which is an absolute classic! “We have clearance Clarence.” “Roger Roger, what’s our vector Victor!”

Oh, and Chatty May well beat us. We turn it over, call dumb plays, etc. and we’re toast. But if we play up to our potential though, I think we’ll be okay. BTW, I’m not a homer as I picked Samford to beat us. But I’ll pickWofford over Chatty, and 19, who “actually knows football”, probably will too I bet. I personally think you pick against Wofford just because you don’t like us Wofford posters though, not because of some great football knowledge you possess It’s okay though. I’d still buy you a beer. Finally, Meat Loaf said “Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad.” That reminds me, I gotta watch Rocky Horror for Halloween.

[ElCid]

Except for furman players nearly every time wcu would hit a good play. How many "injuries" did furman players have on wcu big gains?


The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.

Unfortunately this is being talked about more and more, especially in regard to those facing some of the fast paced offenses. It is hard to imagine, but it is also easy to see, how easy it is to execute. I have heard this a few times in reaction from some FBS teams but not a lot in FCS.

It would be interesting to see a study on it. I personally do not believe it is a widespread institutionalized practice. But I have no doubt that it does happen as targets of opportunity present themselves and/or require a break in action.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wasn’t it Meatloaf who said 3 out of 4 ain’t bad?

Who else picked the Mocs this week? Just me & 19, The Woffy Fan who actually understands The game of Football. Almost hit that score & spread on the money.

Pretty close on the score/spread for CIT/VMI also.

Didn’t anticipate the Adams injury, so overestimated WCU’s O. Got the Dins about right though.

As for the yapdogs, my Cray-based model failed to account for ETSU handing the ball over on their own 6 & for AirAyers 75 yard, 1:44 TOP TD drive that included only 1 run for 4 yards. I’ll make some formula adjustments before next week when I pick Chatt to win again.

Regardless, I know you, YT, and 19 were sweatin’ it a whole lot more than I was when ETSU was driving deep into anklebiter territory for the GAME-WINNING SCORE late in the 4th quarter.

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I never said a Chattanooga win wasn't possible, just didn't think it was likely but they got the breaks they needed. Even if picking Chattanooga was the right pick in the end, your methodology wasn't sound, it was homerism.

I wasn't sweating, because I knew ETSU didn't have a run game (another <20 yards rushing our defense gave up). I'm disappointed we didn't overperform as my bull**** algorithm predicted us winning 28-21. I underestimated how much better ETSU plays at home compared to on the road.

Meanwhile, Mercer will be lucky to finish with a winning record and Furman has the worst pass defense in the conference and hasn't played Samford yet.

[BearDownMU]

your methodology wasn't sound, it was homerism.

Lol. Here we go again.

[tenNesseeCat]

The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.

I'm A fan...not plural.

Not all...but some yes. It not a new tactic

[SU DOG]

I will NOT defend my school on this Board now as I usually do. Some bad breaks yes, but what some DUMB play-calling! Undisciplined, unprepared, and unfocused. These are things that fall back on our staff more so than on our team, IMO. Your QB cannot always save your skin. Outside of Hodges' 16 yard scramble, we had a grand total of 18 yards rushing. UTC defense is pretty good, but NO SoCon defense is THAT good. It is ridulous that at this point of the season we have no running game, and I mean NO running game. Talk about being one dimensional!!! Also, how about those super-duper trick plays that fooled nobody except us? A double reverse flea-flicker on 3rd down and one? A throwback pass to an O-Lineman on 4th down in the Red Zone when a FG as it turned out might have meant a win? We have 3 left, and could go 0-3. With this team, who knows? We also had some key injuries happen yesterday. My guess is that McKnight probably won't be back. Right now, I probably should not even be posting I guess.

[Mocs123]

What was McKnight's injury? I was listening to the radio, and heard he went out with an arm? injury? I hope he is back next week as he is a heck of a football player.

[SU DOG]

What was McKnight's injury? I was listening to the radio, and heard he went out with an arm? injury? I hope he is back next week as he is a heck of a football player.

It looked like a shoulder injury to me, but I know nothing official. BTW, congrats to the Mocs, they had every opportunity to roll over, but instead came back to do what was necessary to get the W.

[Mocs123]

Thanks. We had a chance last week and couldn't punch it in from the 11 yard line, but this week were able to gut one out. It looks like Arth and Co. are starting to figure things out after looking lost for the first half of the season. It doesn't get any easier with Wofford next week and a much improved ETSU team to finish the season.

[Sir William]

The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.

That’s a very good point.

I also think the big thing that’s being left out of this conversation is the dual fact that not only did the Furman defense convincingly shut down a high-powered Western offense on the Cats own turf, but also that Western’s defense had little or no answer for the Paladin offense, even when they knew what was coming. Our fullbacks ran roughshod all over them most of the day.

Both teams had to deal with the same weather. Rain didn’t determine the outcome of this game...and the Paladins had little reason to “fake” injuries, when they were convincingly winning the trench fight.

[PaladinFan]

That’s a very good point.

I also think the big thing that’s being left out of this conversation is the dual fact that not only did the Furman defense convincingly shut down a high-powered Western offense on the Cats own turf, but also that Western’s defense had little or no answer for the Paladin offense, even when they knew what was coming. Our fullbacks ran roughshod all over them most of the day.

Both teams had to deal with the same weather. Rain didn’t determine the outcome of this game...and the Paladins had little reason to “fake” injuries, when they were convincingly winning the trench fight.

I also think that most of the injuries were to Furman’s NTs - Jay Reid and Parker Stokes.

Those guys play an incredibly physically demanding position, and get double teamed, held, and dragged down virtually every snap. It’s not surprising that they were banged up after a couple of plays in difficult conditions.

Besides, WCU ran 80 plays. There was an injured Paladin defender after, what, 3 or 4 of them? What about the other 76 plays?

[Reign of Terrier]

Lol. Here we go again.

Here's how you figure out how FuBear picks a game:

1) Does the outcome benefit Mercer? If yes, pick that outcome
2) Does the outcome benefit Furman? If yes, pick that outcome

I'm okay with people being homers, but don't create bull**** justifications and flaunt it as a reasonable expectation (i.e not being a homer). It was a totally reasonable expectation for ETSU to beat Wofford, for instance, even if unlikely. The prediction that we'd lose and not score 20 was not substantiated by facts.

[Reign of Terrier]

I will NOT defend my school on this Board now as I usually do. Some bad breaks yes, but what some DUMB play-calling! Undisciplined, unprepared, and unfocused. These are things that fall back on our staff more so than on our team, IMO. Your QB cannot always save your skin. Outside of Hodges' 16 yard scramble, we had a grand total of 18 yards rushing. UTC defense is pretty good, but NO SoCon defense is THAT good. It is ridulous that at this point of the season we have no running game, and I mean NO running game. Talk about being one dimensional!!! Also, how about those super-duper trick plays that fooled nobody except us? A double reverse flea-flicker on 3rd down and one? A throwback pass to an O-Lineman on 4th down in the Red Zone when a FG as it turned out might have meant a win? We have 3 left, and could go 0-3. With this team, who knows? We also had some key injuries happen yesterday. My guess is that McKnight probably won't be back. Right now, I probably should not even be posting I guess.

As I was saying all week, Samford has the capability to beat anyone, but the reason they don't is because Chris Hatcher is probably the biggest con man in FCS. Hatcher can beat Wofford (5-1 in his time at Samford/GSU) what that's the only thing he does consistently.

- - - Updated - - -


What was McKnight's injury? I was listening to the radio, and heard he went out with an arm? injury? I hope he is back next week as he is a heck of a football player.

dislocated shoulder I heard (ouch)

Further edit:

I think the Furman fan's are overselling how they shut down Western's offense. Obviously it counts, but missing Adams and the downpour are pretty big hurdles to overcome

[Sir William]

Not interested in arguing with you, but Furman O had to deal with the same weather as Western O. Moreover, football is a team sport, not an individual one. Adams is a good player and certainly hard to replace if hurt. But if the whole of their offense is mainly about him (and it’s not!), then maybe they don’t have a great offense to begin with. I’m saying this as logic - Western’s offense is very good, but they got smashed in the mouth by the Furman D. You may not like it, and you may pull some arbitrary stats out of your sleeve, but it is what it is.

If a player goes down, then someone has to step up...if not, then prepare better in the future for those contingencies. I watched their backup and thought he did well, actually. The story here is not the Western QBs or the weather, but the Furman D.

And BTW, good luck to the Catamounts from here on out. And I hope Adams recovers soon.

[PaladinFan]

As I was saying all week, Samford has the capability to beat anyone, but the reason they don't is because Chris Hatcher is probably the biggest con man in FCS. Hatcher can beat Wofford (5-1 in his time at Samford/GSU) what that's the only thing he does consistently.

- - - Updated - - -



dislocated shoulder I heard (ouch)

Further edit:

I think the Furman fan's are overselling how they shut down Western's offense. Obviously it counts, but missing Adams and the downpour are pretty big hurdles to overcome

Losing Adams was significant. There’s no question.

Still, Furman bottled up the Western offense all game. They rarely threatened the endzone.

Of course, Furman only attempted 5 passes, so, you can argue that WCU didn’t even see the Paladin offense at full tilt. The weather was a factor for both teams.

[Mocs123]

I'm not sure if the weather was different that it would change the outcome of the game, but I will say that it would have been closer. I would give Furman the nod against almost anybody in bad weather as they have a dominant O-Line and some big powererful downhill runners that handle that weather better than many teams would.

[wcugrad95]

I'm not sure if the weather was different that it would change the outcome of the game, but I will say that it would have been closer. I would give Furman the nod against almost anybody in bad weather as they have a dominant O-Line and some big powererful downhill runners that handle that weather better than many teams would.

Agree - Hendrix as an old OLineman has that team all-in on his brand of football. Against WCU or anybody else, Furman is probably better positioned for that kind of "weather" game even more than the triple-options teams who rely so much on some misdirection and the pitch game. Western would have obviously been better with Adams in the game, and would have been better with better weather. But Furman certainly wouldn't have gotten worse in good weather.

[Sir William]

Agree - Hendrix as an old OLineman has that team all-in on his brand of football. Against WCU or anybody else, Furman is probably better positioned for that kind of "weather" game even more than the triple-options teams who rely so much on some misdirection and the pitch game. Western would have obviously been better with Adams in the game, and would have been better with better weather. But Furman certainly wouldn't have gotten worse in good weather.

Well said. Agree.

[BearDownMU]

Here's how you figure out how FuBear picks a game:

1) Does the outcome benefit Mercer? If yes, pick that outcome
2) Does the outcome benefit Furman? If yes, pick that outcome

I'm okay with people being homers, but don't create bull**** justifications and flaunt it as a reasonable expectation (i.e not being a homer). It was a totally reasonable expectation for ETSU to beat Wofford, for instance, even if unlikely. The prediction that we'd lose and not score 20 was not substantiated by facts.

Dude, whatever kind of remedial statistical analysis you are doing is no better than any method anyone else uses the pick games. I don't know how many ways I have to keep saying this. I couldn't care less how you go about your process. But stop acting like it's better than anyone else's. You are, quite literally, predicting a future event which, be definition, hasn't happened yet and could really yield any one of an infinite number of possible outcomes.

This is a message board about FCS football. You aren't The VP of Analysis for the FCS College Football Official Predictive Power Rankings and Game Picking Oracle Services. Just stop being so condescending. It's annoying and you're not any better or more correct than anyone else on here.

[SCPALADIN]

Agree - Hendrix as an old OLineman has that team all-in on his brand of football. Against WCU or anybody else, Furman is probably better positioned for that kind of "weather" game even more than the triple-options teams who rely so much on some misdirection and the pitch game. Western would have obviously been better with Adams in the game, and would have been better with better weather. But Furman certainly wouldn't have gotten worse in good weather.

Good analysis

[PaladinFan]

Good analysis

Furman is going to miss Schmidt and Bush on that OL, but the Paladin’s OL two deep as 5 freshmen and 3 sophomores. They should be really good for a while.

[FUBeAR]

Here's how you figure out how FuBear picks a game:

1) Does the outcome benefit Mercer? If yes, pick that outcome
2) Does the outcome benefit Furman? If yes, pick that outcome

I'm okay with people being homers, but don't create bull**** justifications and flaunt it as a reasonable expectation (i.e not being a homer). It was a totally reasonable expectation for ETSU to beat Wofford, for instance, even if unlikely. The prediction that we'd lose and not score 20 was not substantiated by facts.

All right. You've convinced me. I want to learn more about YT's TRUTH, LIGHT, and WAY. I need to study at the feet of THE MASTER.

So, if you would, please let me know the Post ID# of which one of your 50+ posts in this Week 9 Pick 'em thread, where you clearly delineated, before the games began, your Winner/Loser selections and score projections for all 4 games.

I look forward to reviewing your infallible prescience and improving my deeply flawed methodologies.