Socon Week 9 pick em and power rankings

[ElCid]

I also think that most of the injuries were to Furman’s NTs - Jay Reid and Parker Stokes.

Those guys play an incredibly physically demanding position, and get double teamed, held, and dragged down virtually every snap. It’s not surprising that they were banged up after a couple of plays in difficult conditions.

Besides, WCU ran 80 plays. There was an injured Paladin defender after, what, 3 or 4 of them? What about the other 76 plays?

I actually have not seen what they were saying exactly, but you know that 4 out of 80 isn't the point. As an example, in our game yesterday, we ran one series and were banging the yards out in 8-12 yard chunks. After about 5 of those runs every 30 seconds or so, VMI finally called a time out. Their D was gassed and had no answer. Someone could have easily had a cramp. It is a momentum killer either way. I have seen a few injuries on some of our faster drives, and had to wonder, but always give the fellas the benefit of the doubt since they were probably cut block one too many times that day.

[Reign of Terrier]

Dude, whatever kind of remedial statistical analysis you are doing is no better than any method anyone else uses the pick games. I don't know how many ways I have to keep saying this. I couldn't care less how you go about your process. But stop acting like it's better than anyone else's. You are, quite literally, predicting a future event which, be definition, hasn't happened yet and could really yield any one of an infinite number of possible outcomes.

This is a message board about FCS football. You aren't The VP of Analysis for the FCS College Football Official Predictive Power Rankings and Game Picking Oracle Services. Just stop being so condescending. It's annoying and you're not any better or more correct than anyone else on here.

I didn't say I was better than everyone else's, just better than FuBear.

If you don't like stats, you don't like stats. That's cool Stats give insight and parameters of expectation which are better than our intuitions. Statistics exist quite literally to help us predict future events within a level of certainty.

I'm condescending to FuBear because he quite literally only uses stats when they fit his bias, but brushes them over when they don't, yet acts like he's being reasonable and consistent (like when he said Mercer was third best in the conference after a loss to ETSU LOL).

Literally the only people who give a **** enough about this to say "they're just stats mannnnnnnn" are Mercer fans, beginning when I pointed out how FUBear's prognostications are bull****. Hell, I'm the one who says every week that there's less predictability in football statistics given the limited sample and all of the moving parts in a football game relative to others; if anything I've been transparent on the limits of statistical analysis.

You don't have to think my method is infallible. Heck, I don't. I'm just bringing moderation to expectations of everyone (for instance I think Furman's legit but I know I'm bugging their fans by pointing out potential flaws in it). But FuBear and other Mercer fans get really butthurt when I use stats (not even abstract one!) to show that their rose-colored glasses are bull****.

[BearDownMU]

I didn't say I was better than everyone else's, just better than FuBear.

If you don't like stats, you don't like stats. That's cool Stats give insight and parameters of expectation which are better than our intuitions. Statistics exist quite literally to help us predict future events within a level of certainty.

I'm condescending to FuBear because he quite literally only uses stats when they fit his bias, but brushes them over when they don't, yet acts like he's being reasonable and consistent (like when he said Mercer was third best in the conference after a loss to ETSU LOL).

Literally the only people who give a **** enough about this to say "they're just stats mannnnnnnn" are Mercer fans, beginning when I pointed out how FUBear's prognostications are bull****. Hell, I'm the one who says every week that there's less predictability in football statistics given the limited sample and all of the moving parts in a football game relative to others; if anything I've been transparent on the limits of statistical analysis.

You don't have to think my method is infallible. Heck, I don't. I'm just bringing moderation to expectations of everyone (for instance I think Furman's legit but I know I'm bugging their fans by pointing out potential flaws in it). But FuBear and other Mercer fans get really butthurt when I use stats (not even abstract one!) to show that their rose-colored glasses are bull****.

Now you're just making stuff up. I've never said anything to you about anything you've ever said about Mercer. When this all started, I'm simply pointed out I didn't agree with part of your methodology, and that was true for how you were applying it to all teams, not just Mercer. My issue isn't what you say, it's how you act when you say it. It's got nothing to do with what you say about Mercer. I couldn't care less, because I don't think your opinion is any better than anyone else's on here. And generally speaking, I don't care about anyone else's opinions anyway. Because all of this impacts the game zero.

Again, it's a message board dude. It's supposed to be fun. Maybe people just make picks based on their gut because it's *fun*. Maybe people make picks just to get someone riled up because it's *fun*. Maybe people don't pick what they think will happen but what the WANT to happen because it's *FUN*. But you come on here like you are the arbiter of opinion, and you are most certainly not.

[Reign of Terrier]

All right. You've convinced me. I want to learn more about YT's TRUTH, LIGHT, and WAY. I need to study at the feet of THE MASTER.

So, if you would, please let me know the Post ID# of which one of your 50+ posts in this Week 9 Pick 'em thread, where you clearly delineated, before the games began, your Winner/Loser selections and score projections for all 4 games.

I look forward to reviewing your infallible prescience and improving my deeply flawed methodologies.

I never said my analysis was perfect. Just better. An excellent rhetorical tactic to discredit people who have a point is to sarcastically assert more certainty to their analysis than they do.

to be fair, I didn't post specific scores, because I don't think that's a good method. for some reasons I didn't post my rankings or picks for week 9, which I guess I didn't because it slipped my mind. But it was clear if you read this thread that I said:
Furman should win (it's in there I just don't want to go through the post), Wofford should win and move the ball well (#118), Samford should win but the likelihood of a Chattanooga win was higher than people thought (120, 103).

I also made predictions that Chattanooga couldn't score 27 on Samford (#113). I was right, but even more so when you factor in the fact that one of Chattanooga's touchdowns was a pick 6.

I also predicted Wofford would get sufficient pressure on ETSU (118). We did.

So I made multiple predictions about everything but scoring outcomes (I was 3-1 this week in picking winners). Quite literally the only prediction I made that I felt confident enough making that went wrong was the outcome of the Samford game...and it was this close.

If you want to look at the quasi-statistical algorithm I put together: it predicted the following outcomes:
28-21 Wofford over ETSU
29-17 Citadel over VMI
31-17 Samford over Chattanooga
27-26 Furman over Western.

Admittedly, I didn't post them, because I think they're a good baseline but ultimately flawed (gives way too much optimistic of a prognostication systemically for VMI) but the offensive predictions were pretty reliable considering the crazy week this week with the weather/injury in Cullowhee, Citadel missing 4 field goals and Samford turning the ball over.

I'll be sure to post them in the future in other threads, but for **** sake don't pretend like you're not a homer. Anyone can get lucky and predict an outcome for an upset correctly, but the difference between an annoying homer and everyone else is that the former picks in spite of the facts (pretty much adding nothing to discussion) while the other is somewhat anchored to them.

[Reign of Terrier]

Now you're just making stuff up. I've never said anything to you about anything you've ever said about Mercer. When this all started, I'm simply pointed out I didn't agree with part of your methodology, and that was true for how you were applying it to all teams, not just Mercer. My issue isn't what you say, it's how you act when you say it. It's got nothing to do with what you say about Mercer. I couldn't care less, because I don't think your opinion is any better than anyone else's on here. And generally speaking, I don't care about anyone else's opinions anyway. Because all of this impacts the game zero.

Again, it's a message board dude. It's supposed to be fun. Maybe people just make picks based on their gut because it's *fun*. Maybe people make picks just to get someone riled up because it's *fun*. Maybe people don't pick what they think will happen but what the WANT to happen because it's *FUN*. But you come on here like you are the arbiter of opinion, and you are most certainly not.

What is this not fun for you?

I'm having lots of fun.

I'm skeptical that this isn't about Mercer because you literally only come out of the woods when I criticize FuBear or Mercer. Correlation isn't causation, but hmmmm

[citdog]

YT has become a pretentious little **** now that he MAY have some hair on his balls. His dad should have spanked him more.

[BearDownMU]

What is this not fun for you?

I'm having lots of fun.

I'm skeptical that this isn't about Mercer because you literally only come out of the woods when I criticize FuBear or Mercer. Correlation isn't causation, but hmmmm

I enjoy reading more than commenting, generally. But I don't like when people act and talk to people like you do. It doesn't have anything to do with Mercer.

And FUBeAR has been my friend for 20 years, was a college football player and college coach, and generally knows more about football than anyone I know. So, I don't like how you act generally, but when it's also directed at my friend (and an extremely knowledgeable one at that), it annoys me even more. So, yes, I'm the kind of guy that's apt to say something in defense of a friend. Sorry if you're not that kind of guy and don't understand why someone would do that.

[Reign of Terrier]

I enjoy reading more than commenting, generally. But I don't like when people act and talk to people like you do. It doesn't have anything to do with Mercer.

And FUBeAR has been my friend for 20 years, was a college football player and college coach, and generally knows more about football than anyone I know. So, I don't like how you act generally, but when it's also directed at my friend (and an extremely knowledgeable one at that), it annoys me even more. So, yes, I'm the kind of guy that's apt to say something in defense of a friend. Sorry if you're not that kind of guy and don't understand why someone would do that.

Well that context helps, but if you would read closer, he clearly takes care of himself just fine. As far as I'm concerned, I'm just swinging back

[Cat-in-GA]

The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.

They were faking injuries. I saw it first hand. Furman players were telling other players to lay down. Players were going down who weren't touched. They were worse than a bunch of Italian soccer players.

[BearDownMU]

Well that context helps, but if you would read closer, he clearly takes care of himself just fine. As far as I'm concerned, I'm just swinging back

I've read closely enough. And I'm aware he can take care of himself.

And it doesn't surprise me that's the way you would see it.

[Sir William]

They were faking injuries. I saw it first hand. Furman players were telling other players to lay down. Players were going down who weren't touched. They were worse than a bunch of Italian soccer players.

😿

🎻

[Reign of Terrier]

I've read closely enough. And I'm aware he can take care of himself.

And it doesn't surprise me that's the way you would see it.

So you're not having fun?

Jeeze the only one complaining at this point is you.

[gofurman]

They were faking injuries. I saw it first hand. Furman players were telling other players to lay down. Players were going down who weren't touched. They were worse than a bunch of Italian soccer players.

*** hey, please slow down and read this - I asked a guy who plays for us and he explained this: vs an up-tempo we HAVE to lay down if mildly hurt (where in a slow game maybe we get off the field and just substitute which is how we do it all the time) bc the up-tempo opponent by its very nature doesn’t give you time to sub. As we would try to ‘limp’ off the field WCU would hike it keeping an injured defender on the field. As they should. So, we are forced to lie down. And thus instructed to do so IF AND ONLY IF the other team is hiking it that fast. I watch just about every Furman game. We aren’t dirty. We don’t cheat. But if playing a super fast Offense (WCU) and we have a legitimate injury you have to lie down so it’s not 11 v 10

[BearDownMU]

So you're not having fun?

Jeeze the only one complaining at this point is you.

Says they guy who posts a 9 paragraph rebuttal every time someone disagrees with him.

Just stop acting like an a spoiled teenager that knows everything. That's all I'm saying, and all I'll say about it further.

And since I know from your posts you have a pathological need to get in the last word, I'll let you go ahead and have it.

[gofurman]

Agree - Hendrix as an old OLineman has that team all-in on his brand of football. Against WCU or anybody else, Furman is probably better positioned for that kind of "weather" game even more than the triple-options teams who rely so much on some misdirection and the pitch game. Western would have obviously been better with Adams in the game, and would have been better with better weather. But Furman certainly wouldn't have gotten worse in good weather.

Good objective analysis. Appreciate that. I agree. Clearly WCU is Better w Adams. No doubt! Great player - scary talent! I hope he can return soon. Maybe just a twist? Hope so! Clearly WCU uses more speed so better weather would have helped them. Absolutely. But, as you say, FU doesn’t get worse w good weather. We ran fewer option plays and passes yesterday than in most games for sure (we usually pass about 15-20 times) so we would have had more plays too - plays that open up the FB dive even more. Yesterday everyone pretty much knew FU was going to FB dive. Most games it’s not that obvious you only need to defend the between the tackles

[Cat-in-GA]

*** hey, please slow down and read this - I asked a guy who plays for us and he explained this: vs an up-tempo we HAVE to lay down if mildly hurt (where in a slow game maybe we get off the field and just substitute which is how we do it all the time) bc the up-tempo opponent by its very nature doesn’t give you time to sub. As we would try to ‘limp’ off the field WCU would hike it keeping an injured defender on the field. As they should. So, we are forced to lie down. And thus instructed to do so IF AND ONLY IF the other team is hiking it that fast. I watch just about every Furman game. We aren’t dirty. We don’t cheat. But if playing a super fast Offense (WCU) and we have a legitimate injury you have to lie down so it’s not 11 v 10

I hear you, but there are points where lines get crossed from the reasonable necessity of dealing with a player slightly injured, to circumstances being used as a tactic which fundamentally changes the entire character of the game being played. Soccer and basketball games are regularly ruined by similar tactics. I dread the day that football is also ruined, because at that point I will just stop watching.

[Reign of Terrier]

Says they guy who posts a 9 paragraph rebuttal every time someone disagrees with him.

Just stop acting like an a spoiled teenager that knows everything. That's all I'm saying, and all I'll say about it further.

And since I know from your posts you have a pathological need to get in the last word, I'll let you go ahead and have it.

So you're not having fun?

The solution for that is to log off. Sorry the internet hurts your fee fees!

[SCPALADIN]

Agree - Hendrix as an old OLineman has that team all-in on his brand of football. Against WCU or anybody else, Furman is probably better positioned for that kind of "weather" game even more than the triple-options teams who rely so much on some misdirection and the pitch game. Western would have obviously been better with Adams in the game, and would have been better with better weather. But Furman certainly wouldn't have gotten worse in good weather.


They were faking injuries. I saw it first hand. Furman players were telling other players to lay down. Players were going down who weren't touched. They were worse than a bunch of Italian soccer players.

This post almost sucks as bad as WCU's run defense.

[hypercycloid]

I hear you, but there are points where lines get crossed from the reasonable necessity of dealing with a player slightly injured, to circumstances being used as a tactic which fundamentally changes the entire character of the game being played. Soccer and basketball games are regularly ruined by similar tactics. I dread the day that football is also ruined, because at that point I will just stop watching.

Some of this WCU anger should be redirected at the condition of that field. I know it was raining hard, but artificial turf should not have puddles in the middle of the field. I'm glad there weren't more series injuries.

[woffordgrad94]

You have to admit that picking Wofford to score fewer than 20 against ETSU was a dumb prediction. I just don’t think FuBEAR is really that dumb. It was obviously done mainly just to rile Wofford fans up, and he succeeded. He never REALLY thought it would actually happen. Now just admit to me that’s true.

[citdog]

This post almost sucks as bad as WCU's run defense.

Or furman

[PaladinFan]

They were faking injuries. I saw it first hand. Furman players were telling other players to lay down. Players were going down who weren't touched. They were worse than a bunch of Italian soccer players.

This is a take the quality of which I have not seen since Georgia Southern left the SoCon.

[FUBeAR]

You have to admit that picking Wofford to score fewer than 20 against ETSU was a dumb prediction. I just don’t think FuBEAR is really that dumb. It was obviously done mainly just to rile Wofford fans up, and he succeeded. He never REALLY thought it would actually happen. Now just admit to me that’s true.

I’ve already admitted errors in my formulae failed to account for ETSU giving the ball away on their own 6 & for a 75 yard scoring drive where ETSU subbed their entire secondary & Mike Ayers channeled his inner Mike Leach as there was only 1 running play for 4 yards in that series.

So, a 14 point formula error...which, actually projected 17 points for Woffy and, OK, I pushed it a wee bit by backing that 17 point projection down to 14. I just didn’t think Woffy would convert that projected FG in the cold, rainy, windy conditions. But I thought ETSU’s excellent PK would. He did make a career long FG, so I feel like I did pretty well speculating about that.

Frankly, I’m surprised the ETSU fans are not up in arms about how I slandered them by ‘shorting’ them a TD. I really have no excuse for that. 24 is what my model actually projected & I guess I just overestimated Wofford’s Defense.

i’ll fine tune these formulae before I predict the score of Chatt’s victory over Wofford.

[FUBeAR]

This is a take the quality of which I have not seen since Georgia Southern left the SoCon.

Besides that...it’s supposed to be FRENCH soccer players.

[Reign of Terrier]

I’ve already admitted errors in my formulae failed to account for ETSU giving the ball away on their own 6 & for a 75 yard scoring drive where ETSU subbed their entire secondary & Mike Ayers channeled his inner Mike Leach as there was only 1 running play for 4 yards in that series.

So, a 14 point formula error...which, actually projected 17 points for Woffy and, OK, I pushed it a wee bit by backing that 17 point projection down to 14. I just didn’t think Woffy would convert that projected FG in the cold, rainy, windy conditions. But I thought ETSU’s excellent PK would. He did make a career long FG, so I feel like I did pretty well speculating about that.

Frankly, I’m surprised the ETSU fans are not up in arms about how I slandered them by ‘shorting’ them a TD. I really have no excuse for that. 24 is what my model actually projected & I guess I just overestimated Wofford’s Defense.

i’ll fine tune these formulae before I predict the score of Chatt’s victory over Wofford.

You had that long to come up with a comeback and that's all you got?

BOOOOOO

[woffordgrad94]

I’ve already admitted errors in my formulae failed to account for ETSU giving the ball away on their own 6 & for a 75 yard scoring drive where ETSU subbed their entire secondary & Mike Ayers channeled his inner Mike Leach as there was only 1 running play for 4 yards in that series.

So, a 14 point formula error...which, actually projected 17 points for Woffy and, OK, I pushed it a wee bit by backing that 17 point projection down to 14. I just didn’t think Woffy would convert that projected FG in the cold, rainy, windy conditions. But I thought ETSU’s excellent PK would. He did make a career long FG, so I feel like I did pretty well speculating about that.

Frankly, I’m surprised the ETSU fans are not up in arms about how I slandered them by ‘shorting’ them a TD. I really have no excuse for that. 24 is what my model actually projected & I guess I just overestimated Wofford’s Defense.

i’ll fine tune these formulae before I predict the score of Chatt’s victory over Wofford.
Luke Carter for Wofford is an EXCELLENT placekicker...and a fine young man to boot! No pun intended. And Saturday is Wofford’s Senior Day. I know you lay in your bed and get a small boner at the thought of Wofford losing but I just don’t think we’re losing on Senior Day, especially not with so much on the line now.

[Mocs123]

Senior day always worries me in FB and BB. So many emotions going on and in my experience, we don't always play our best.

[tenNesseeCat]

The fact that Western Carolina fans think that in miserable conditions Furman players were faking injuries to slow down an offense they shut out for 58 minutes of a 60 minute game is astounding.


*** hey, please slow down and read this - I asked a guy who plays for us and he explained this: vs an up-tempo we HAVE to lay down if mildly hurt (where in a slow game maybe we get off the field and just substitute which is how we do it all the time) bc the up-tempo opponent by its very nature doesn’t give you time to sub. As we would try to ‘limp’ off the field WCU would hike it keeping an injured defender on the field. As they should. So, we are forced to lie down. And thus instructed to do so IF AND ONLY IF the other team is hiking it that fast. I watch just about every Furman game. We aren’t dirty. We don’t cheat. But if playing a super fast Offense (WCU) and we have a legitimate injury you have to lie down so it’s not 11 v 10

When I see multiple players lay down with no sign of pain or discomfort, then leave the field with no hitch in their giddy-up, I began to wonder. Then I hear others around me express the same thoughts, it makes you say, hmmmmm......

So, I'm sorry some FU fans are astounded by what WAS happening, but another FU fan pretty well confirms it. So let's try and get over the pretentious butt hurtness...
http://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.nlWJTcVTO8op_grkz3OB9gEsCu&w=207&h=123&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7

WCU didn't play a good game on offense. Credit to the FU defense. However, it was 7-0 at half time. By no means was FU blowing us out of the stadium. It was a tall task to ask our back up QB to lead a comeback in those conditions. So to the FU fan questioning our depth, what about FU under your last coaching staff? What was the excuse for 4 or so years? We lost an ugly game to a good team, but WCU is still fighting for an at-large playoff spot. Same as FU. We have 2 winnable games left, 3 according to some UNC fans, to get to 8 wins. Am I disappointed in the loss...yes...but i'm not angry. WCU was picked 7th and 6th preseason, and we are currently 3rd. Overall, I'm actually quite pleased.