Bracketology Week 7

[BisonTru]

Nobowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week07.png



My Personal Bracket





1
James Madison







Duquesne



















Youngtown St




















8
Sam Houston St







San Diego



















Northern Ariz




















4
Eastern Washington








Western Illinois



















Montana




















5
Wofford







Western Carolina




















Elon




















3
Jacksonville St.







Southern Utah



















Samford




















6
Central Arkansas








Colgate



















Villanova




















7
South Dakota







Weber St



















South Dakota St




















2
North Dakota St







Monmouth



















Delaware






































First four out
Northern Iowa









Richmond









Stony Brook









McNeese St

[Grizalltheway]

Where's the trigger warning for Thumper? xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

My Personal Bracket





1
James Madison







Duquesne



















Youngtown St




















8
Sam Houston St







San Diego



















Northern Ariz




















4
Eastern Washington








Western Illinois



















Montana




















5
Wofford







Western Carolina




















Elon




















3
Jacksonville St.







Southern Utah



















Samford




















6
Central Arkansas








Colgate



















Villanova




















7
South Dakota







Weber St



















South Dakota St




















2
North Dakota St







Monmouth



















Delaware






































First four out
Northern Iowa









Richmond









Stony Brook









McNeese St








Looks like you're projecting the rest of the season as well. Would you be willing to add your projected records in there too? Just curious. And it would help understand the differences between where things stand today.

[BisonTru]

Looks like you're projecting the rest of the season as well. Would you be willing to add your projected records in there? Just curious.

Yes and yes. I'll get to it later tho.


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[Gangtackle11]

Massey predictions for CAA:

JMU 11-0
Stony Brook 8-3
Villanova 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Richmond 6-5
Albany 6-5
UNH 5-6

CAA will have 5 if Massey has his way unless a 8 win team stays home.

[jmufan999]

oh my god, I would seriously love it if Nova played Sammy. talk about frustrating Briscoe. and Sammy is taking all this pride in their running game this year? good luck with that against Nova.

[SU DOG]

Pull this up on their website, and they have EIU winning the OVC and JSU getting an at large bid. xlolx They also have Campbell from the Pioneer, but San Diego is in a much better position. The 2 don't play each other, but if they tie for the conference championship, SD would get the bid, primarily because Campbell will be leaving that conference for the BS, and that will be a consideration. Yeah, Samford is also left out, and that could become a reality, but I'm sure hoping not. BTW, the site also has a "This is Garbage" or some similar link. I'm thinking that this bracket, while hitting it right in some picks of course, is closer to being garbage.

[JSUSoutherner]

Pull this up on their website, and they have EIU winning the OVC and JSU getting an at large bid. xlolx They also have Campbell from the Pioneer, but San Diego is in a much better position. The 2 don't play each other, but if they tie for the conference championship, SD would get the bid, primarily because Campbell will be leaving that conference for the BS, and that will be a consideration. Yeah, Samford is also left out, and that could become a reality, but I'm sure hoping not. BTW, the site also has a "This is Garbage" or some similar link. I'm thinking that this bracket, while hitting it right in some picks of course, is closer to being garbage.

False. They have it frozen as if the season ended today. EIU is 4-0 and we're 3-0, thus the EIU autobid.

It's literally the first bulletpoint in their "Quick Notes" section.

[maninthehighcastle]

Nobowls.com Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week07.png



My Personal Bracket





1
James Madison







Duquesne



















Youngtown St




















8
Sam Houston St







San Diego



















Northern Ariz




















4
Eastern Washington







Western Illinois



















Montana




















5
Wofford







Western Carolina



















Elon




















3
Jacksonville St.







Southern Utah



















Samford




















6
Central Arkansas







Colgate



















Villanova




















7
South Dakota







Weber St



















South Dakota St




















2
North Dakota St







Monmouth



















Delaware






































First four out
Northern Iowa









Richmond









Stony Brook









McNeese St











EIU...nope.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I have to believe, homerism aside, that Lehigh has the inside track to the PL title...

[Gangtackle11]

Ik Massey isn’t the end all, but look at how they see the rest of the way:

JMU 11-0
NDSU 11-0
USD 10-1
Wofford 10-1
SHSU 10-1
JSU 10-1
UCA 10-1
EWU 9-2
WIU 9-2
McNeese St. 9-2
Nicholls St. 9-2
Villanova 8-3
Stony Brook 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Youngstown St. 8-3
Montana 8-3
NAU 8-3
Weber State 8-3
Kennesaw State 8-3
Charleston So. 8-3
Monmouth 8-3
Austin Peay 8-3
Western Carolina 8-4 (played Hawaii)
Samford 7-4
Furman 7-4

26 Teams - (AQ from PL, Pioneer, NEC) leaves 21 spots. 5 teams with 7+ wins (8 win team too?) stay home with Massey.

Notables missing:
SDSU 6-5
UNH 5-6
UNI 5-6
ISUr 4-7
Richmond 6-5
SUSU 6-5
EIU 6-5

- - - Updated - - -


I have to believe, homerism aside, that Lehigh has the inside track to the PL title...

Lehigh or maybe Lafayette xeyebrowx

[Sammy94]

Ik Massey isn’t the end all, but look at how they see the rest of the way:

JMU 11-0
NDSU 11-0
USD 10-1
Wofford 10-1
SHSU 10-1
JSU 10-1
EWU 9-2
WIU 9-2
McNeese St. 9-2
Nicholls St. 9-2
Villanova 8-3
Stony Brook 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Youngstown St. 8-3
Montana 8-3
NAU 8-3
Weber State 8-3
Kennesaw State 8-3
Charleston So. 8-3
Monmouth 8-3
Austin Peay 8-3
Western Carolina 8-4 (played Hawaii)
Samford 7-4
Furman 7-4

25 Teams - (AQ from PL, Pioneer, NEC) leaves 22 spots. 3 teams with 7+ wins (8 win team too?) stay home with Massey.

Notables missing:
SDSU 6-5
UNH 5-6
UNI 5-6
ISUr 4-7
Richmond 6-5
SUSU 6-5
EIU 6-5

- - - Updated - - -



Lehigh or maybe Lafayette xeyebrowx

UCA will have 8 wins also if not the SLC autobid

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh or maybe Lafayette xeyebrowx

Lafayette loses to Colgate. I think either Lehigh wins it outright or Colgate goes on tiebreakers. Bucknell will be Lehigh's toughest remaining game imo. I don't see Lehigh losing to HC or Lafayette at home.

[Daytripper]

oh my god, I would seriously love it if Nova played Sammy. talk about frustrating Briscoe. and Sammy is taking all this pride in their running game this year? good luck with that against Nova.

You talked up Richmond at the beginning of the season, and now this.....xcoffeex

[Evolution Prime]

Only improvement I could see is feeding the SDSU @ Montana game into NDSU as these are the only places SDSU is allowed to play.

[Gangtackle11]

UCA will have 8 wins also if not the SLC autobid

Missed them.

[JSUSoutherner]

You talked up Richmond at the beginning of the season, and now this.....xcoffeex

Didn't you guys almost lose to NWST?

[Gangtackle11]

Ik Massey isn’t the end all, but look at how they see the rest of the way:

JMU 11-0
NDSU 11-0
USD 10-1
Wofford 10-1
SHSU 10-1
JSU 10-1
UCA 10-1
EWU 9-2
WIU 9-2
McNeese St. 9-2
Nicholls St. 9-2
Villanova 8-3
Stony Brook 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Youngstown St. 8-3
Montana 8-3
NAU 8-3
Weber State 8-3
Kennesaw State 8-3
Charleston So. 8-3
Monmouth 8-3
Austin Peay 8-3
Western Carolina 8-4 (played Hawaii)
Samford 7-4
Furman 7-4

26 Teams - (AQ from PL, Pioneer, NEC) leaves 21 spots. 5 teams with 7+ wins (8 wins team too?) stay home with Massey.

Notables missing:
SDSU 6-5
UNH 5-6
UNI 5-6
ISUr 4-7
Richmond 6-5
SUSU 6-5
EIU 6-5

- - - Updated - - -



Lehigh or maybe Lafayette xeyebrowx

Added UCA

[SU DOG]

False. They have it frozen as if the season ended today. EIU is 4-0 and we're 3-0, thus the EIU autobid.

It's literally the first bulletpoint in their "Quick Notes" section.

Oops missed that - THANKS.

[DirtyDukes]

You talked up Richmond at the beginning of the season, and now this.....xcoffeex

It was also before any football was played. Nova just held JMU to 49 yards rushing. Their rush D is unbelievable.

[mango433]

On one hand, we wouldn't have to play NDSU in the second round. On the other hand, we would have to go to Missoula :pumpuke:

[Cocky]

Ik Massey isn’t the end all, but look at how they see the rest of the way:

JMU 11-0
NDSU 11-0
USD 10-1
Wofford 10-1
SHSU 10-1
JSU 10-1
UCA 10-1
EWU 9-2
WIU 9-2
McNeese St. 9-2
Nicholls St. 9-2
Villanova 8-3
Stony Brook 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Youngstown St. 8-3
Montana 8-3
NAU 8-3
Weber State 8-3
Kennesaw State 8-3
Charleston So. 8-3
Monmouth 8-3
Austin Peay 8-3
Western Carolina 8-4 (played Hawaii)
Samford 7-4
Furman 7-4

26 Teams - (AQ from PL, Pioneer, NEC) leaves 21 spots. 5 teams with 7+ wins (8 win team too?) stay home with Massey.

Notables missing:
SDSU 6-5
UNH 5-6
UNI 5-6
ISUr 4-7
Richmond 6-5
SUSU 6-5
EIU 6-5

- - - Updated - - -



Lehigh or maybe Lafayette xeyebrowx
AP plays twelve games

[Thumper 76]

Where's the trigger warning for Thumper? xlolx
Yeah, seriously. Wtf are they doing having SDSU in the playoffs xcoffeex


The way we’ve played so far and USeD has played they have more than earned the right to host us and mock us. Unfortunately for them I don’t think they get that chance, cause 6-5 looks super likely.

Only improvement I could see is feeding the SDSU @ Montana game into NDSU as these are the only places SDSU is allowed to play.
We won’t have to worry about it this year I think.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MTfan4life]

They also have Campbell from the Pioneer, but San Diego is in a much better position. The 2 don't play each other, but if they tie for the conference championship, SD would get the bid, primarily because Campbell will be leaving that conference for the BS, and that will be a consideration.

Actually, right now, Campbell is in the best position. If all goes how it should, both teams win out to finish the season. The tiebreaker is not conference loyalty, though. It's strength of victories in conference play. So, that comes down to the one team that the other doesn't play. San Diego doesn't play Valpo and Campbell doesn't play Marist. So, basically if Valparaiso finishes better than Marist (they already own a win over Marist), Campbell gets the autobid. Right now, San Diego needs help from Marist, because otherwise their best shot might be the coin flip.

[SU DOG]

Actually, right now, Campbell is in the best position. If all goes how it should, both teams win out to finish the season. The tiebreaker is not conference loyalty, though. It's strength of victories in conference play. So, that comes down to the one team that the other doesn't play. San Diego doesn't play Valpo and Campbell doesn't play Marist. So, basically if Valparaiso finishes better than Marist (they already own a win over Marist), Campbell gets the autobid. Right now, San Diego needs help from Marist, because otherwise their best shot might be the coin flip.

You are correct as to how it is SUPPOSED to be. xeyebrowx

[RootinFerDukes]

Massey predictions for CAA:

JMU 11-0
Stony Brook 8-3
Villanova 8-3
Elon 8-3
Delaware 8-3
Richmond 6-5
Albany 6-5
UNH 5-6

CAA will have 5 if Massey has his way unless a 8 win team stays home.

If the caa has five 8 win teams, they’re getting five in the field. No 6 win mvfc teams this year or a third place southland or socon team in all likelihood.

[RootinFerDukes]

False. They have it frozen as if the season ended today. EIU is 4-0 and we're 3-0, thus the EIU autobid.

It's literally the first bulletpoint in their "Quick Notes" section.

Reading instructions is hard.

[caribbeanhen]

If the caa has five 8 win teams, they’re getting five in the field. No 6 win mvfc teams this year or a third place southland or socon team in all likelihood.

Well that makes sense which is probably why it won't happen

[BisonTru]

Looks like you're projecting the rest of the season as well. Would you be willing to add your projected records in there too? Just curious. And it would help understand the differences between where things stand today.



Team
D1 Wins
Projected D1 wins
Total D1 wins




Remaining
Projected


N Dakota StMissouri Valley
6
4.15
10.15


James MadisonColonial
6
4.78
10.78


South DakotaMissouri Valley
6
2.94
8.94


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
5
3.27
8.27


E WashingtonBig Sky
5
3.13
8.13


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
3
4.09
7.09


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
3
2.97
5.97


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
4
2.61
6.61


Jacksonville StOH Valley
5
4.62
9.62


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
4
3.3
7.3


WoffordSouthern
6
3.32
9.32


Cent ArkansasSouthland
5
4.52
9.52


Southern UtahBig Sky
4
2.92
6.92


MontanaBig Sky
5
2.31
7.31


ElonColonial
5
2.43
7.43


DelawareColonial
4
2.97
6.97


Weber StBig Sky
3
3.1
6.1


Sam Houston StSouthland
5
4.45
9.45


VillanovaColonial
4
2.91
6.91


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
3
2.44
5.44


RichmondColonial
4
2.28
6.28


SamfordSouthern
3
3.21
6.21


Stony BrookColonial
5
2.41
7.41


UC DavisBig Sky
3
2.77
5.77


Illinois StMissouri Valley
4
0.93
4.93


FurmanSouthern
4
2.37
6.37


Montana StBig Sky
2
2.95
4.95


W CarolinaSouthern
5
2.5
7.5


Albany NYColonial
3
3.14
6.14


McNeese StSouthland
4
3.67
7.67


Nicholls StSouthland
5
3.08
8.08


CS SacramentoBig Sky
3
2.43
5.43


MercerSouthern
4
1.38
5.38


Charleston SoBig South
2
3.81
5.81


New HampshireColonial
4
1.97
5.97


MaineColonial
2
2.25
4.25


KennesawBig South
4
2.58
6.58


Monmouth NJBig South
5
2.77
7.77

[Professor Chaos]

Team
D1 Wins
Projected D1 wins
Total D1 wins




Remaining
Projected


N Dakota StMissouri Valley
6
4.15
10.15


James MadisonColonial
6
4.78
10.78


South DakotaMissouri Valley
6
2.94
8.94


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
5
3.27
8.27


E WashingtonBig Sky
5
3.13
8.13


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
3
4.09
7.09


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
3
2.97
5.97


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
4
2.61
6.61


Jacksonville StOH Valley
5
4.62
9.62


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
4
3.3
7.3


WoffordSouthern
6
3.32
9.32


Cent ArkansasSouthland
5
4.52
9.52


Southern UtahBig Sky
4
2.92
6.92


MontanaBig Sky
5
2.31
7.31


ElonColonial
5
2.43
7.43


DelawareColonial
4
2.97
6.97


Weber StBig Sky
3
3.1
6.1


Sam Houston StSouthland
5
4.45
9.45


VillanovaColonial
4
2.91
6.91


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
3
2.44
5.44


RichmondColonial
4
2.28
6.28


SamfordSouthern
3
3.21
6.21


Stony BrookColonial
5
2.41
7.41


UC DavisBig Sky
3
2.77
5.77


Illinois StMissouri Valley
4
0.93
4.93


FurmanSouthern
4
2.37
6.37


Montana StBig Sky
2
2.95
4.95


W CarolinaSouthern
5
2.5
7.5


Albany NYColonial
3
3.14
6.14


McNeese StSouthland
4
3.67
7.67


Nicholls StSouthland
5
3.08
8.08


CS SacramentoBig Sky
3
2.43
5.43


MercerSouthern
4
1.38
5.38


Charleston SoBig South
2
3.81
5.81


New HampshireColonial
4
1.97
5.97


MaineColonial
2
2.25
4.25


KennesawBig South
4
2.58
6.58


Monmouth NJBig South
5
2.77
7.77


Thanks. I think the biggest criticism I'd have is a 6 win Weber St and Samford teams getting in over say a 7 win Stony Brook, 6 win UNI, or 8 win McNeese/Nicholls. Without knowing bad losses/good wins I'd say UNI (6-5) and Stony Brook (7-4) should be in over Weber St (6-5) and Samford (6-5).

I also think USD would be underseeded at #7 at 9-2. I'd probably pick on Wofford at 9-2 as being likely be under them with that record.

[BisonTru]

Thanks. I think the biggest criticism I'd have is a 6 win Weber St and Samford teams getting in over say a 7 win Stony Brook, 6 win UNI, or 8 win McNeese/Nicholls. Without knowing bad losses/good wins I'd say UNI (6-5) and Stony Brook (7-4) should be in over Weber St (6-5) and Samford (6-5).

I also think USD would be underseeded at #7 at 9-2. I'd probably pick on Wofford at 9-2 as being likely be under them with that record.

Those are all fair criticisms that upon further thought I pretty much agree with you. Now the question is does McNeese State or Nicholls State with a shiny record beat out a UNI with a much tougher SOS.

[wcugrad95]

Specifically about Wofford and the SoCon, if the Terriers are projected to lose 2 regular season games, one of them would almost have to be this weekend against Samford (they play the bottom 3 teams in the league to finish out conference play). If this is projecting Wofford to lose that game, I'd say that would mean their 9.32 goes down to 9 and Samford's 6.21 actually goes up to 7.

[Professor Chaos]

Those are all fair criticisms that upon further thought I pretty much agree with you. Now the question is does McNeese State or Nicholls State with a shiny record beat out a UNI with a much tougher SOS.
At 8-3 for each of them (which would really be rounding up for Nicholls) I think it would be tough. I think they'd have at least one real ugly loss each. "Good losses" and all that jazz that the selection committee seems enamored with. They also would have zilch for quality wins (except for maybe Nicholls' win over McNeese). UNI would need to be 5-3 in the MVFC to get to 6-5 and for them to win 5 MVFC games they'd have to have another good win to add to their SDSU win already.

[Gangtackle11]

At 8-3 for each of them (which would really be rounding up for Nicholls) I think it would be tough. I think they'd have at least one real ugly loss each. "Good losses" and all that jazz that the selection committee seems enamored with. They also would have zilch for quality wins (except for maybe Nicholls' win over McNeese). UNI would need to be 5-3 in the MVFC to get to 6-5 and for them to win 5 MVFC games they'd have to have another good win to add to their SDSU win already.

Nicholls is currently 5-2 and have games left:
@ Incarnate Word (1-5)
Houston Baptist (1-5)
@ SFA (2-5)
@ SELA (4-3)

They will more than likely have 8 wins & possibly 9.

[Professor Chaos]

Nicholls is currently 5-2 and have games left:
@ Incarnate Word (1-5)
Houston Baptist (1-5)
@ SFA (2-5)
@ SELA (4-3)

They will more than likely have 8 wins & possibly 9.
I'm just going off BisonTru's projection that puts them at 7.5 wins. I believe he's going off Massey projections. I would guess Massey projects them to have a decent chance to lose either of their last 2 to finish at either 7-4 or 8-3.

[Gangtackle11]

I'm just going off BisonTru's projection that puts them at 7.5 wins. I believe he's going off Massey projections. I would guess Massey projects them to have a decent chance to lose either of their last 2 to finish at either 7-4 or 8-3.

I hear ya, but Massey gives Nicholls a
90% chance to win @ IW
96% chance to beat HBU
71% chance to win @ SFA
52% chance to win @ SELA

I think looking at the games individually is the more efficient method to look at the prediction. I’m no math major though. xpeacex

[PantherRob82]

I like it. UNI I’m the quarterfinals against USD or Montana. :)

[Professor Chaos]

I hear ya, but Massey gives Nicholls a
90% chance to win @ IW
96% chance to beat HBU
71% chance to win @ SFA
52% chance to win @ SELA

I think looking at the games individually is the more efficient method to look at the prediction. I’m no math major though. xpeacex
Compounding those probabilities is where you start to see the numbers make more sense and that accounts for upsets as well. For example a team could play two games and have a 75% chance to win each game. Yet the probability of them winning both is barely over 50% (56%).

That's why it's pretty remarkable that Massey projects JMU to win 11 and go undefeated even with the probabilities of each game compounded. NDSU doesn't have less than a 79% chance to win each of their remaining games by Massey yet he projects them to lose one and go 10-1 (rounded).

[Gangtackle11]

Massey projected Seeds with my attempt @ regionalization:

1. NDSU 11-0 vs. Montana (8-3)/ Nicholls State (9-2) winner
2. JMU 11-0 vs. Lehigh (6-5)/Stony Brook (8-3) winner
3. USD 10-1 vs. SHSU (10-1)/Samford (7-4) winner
4. EWU 9-2 vs. NAU (8-3)/Weber State (8-3) winner
5. YSU 8-3 vs. Villanova (8-3)/Duquesne (9-2) winner
6. JSU 10-1 vs. Delaware (8-3)/Elon (8-3) winner
7. Wofford 10-1 vs. Charleston So. (8-3)/Campbell (9-2) winner
8. UCA 10-1 vs. Western Illinois (9-2)/WCU (8-4) winner

[BisonTru]

Team
D1 Wins
Projected D1 wins
Total D1 wins




Remaining
Projected


N Dakota StMissouri Valley
6
4.15
10.15


James MadisonColonial
6
4.78
10.78


South DakotaMissouri Valley
6
2.94
8.94


W IllinoisMissouri Valley
5
3.27
8.27


E WashingtonBig Sky
5
3.13
8.13


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
3
4.09
7.09


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
3
2.97
5.97


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
4
2.61
6.61


Jacksonville StOH Valley
5
4.62
9.62


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
4
3.3
7.3


WoffordSouthern
6
3.32
9.32


Cent ArkansasSouthland
5
4.52
9.52


Southern UtahBig Sky
4
2.92
6.92


MontanaBig Sky
5
2.31
7.31


ElonColonial
5
2.43
7.43


DelawareColonial
4
2.97
6.97


Weber StBig Sky
3
3.1
6.1


Sam Houston StSouthland
5
4.45
9.45


VillanovaColonial
4
2.91
6.91


S IllinoisMissouri Valley
3
2.44
5.44


RichmondColonial
4
2.28
6.28


SamfordSouthern
3
3.21
6.21


Stony BrookColonial
5
2.41
7.41


UC DavisBig Sky
3
2.77
5.77


Illinois StMissouri Valley
4
0.93
4.93


FurmanSouthern
4
2.37
6.37


Montana StBig Sky
2
2.95
4.95


W CarolinaSouthern
5
2.5
7.5


Albany NYColonial
3
3.14
6.14


McNeese StSouthland
4
3.67
7.67


Nicholls StSouthland
5
3.08
8.08


CS SacramentoBig Sky
3
2.43
5.43


MercerSouthern
4
1.38
5.38


Charleston SoBig South
2
3.81
5.81


New HampshireColonial
4
1.97
5.97


MaineColonial
2
2.25
4.25


KennesawBig South
4
2.58
6.58


Monmouth NJBig South
5
2.77
7.77




This is done using Massey's projected wins, BTW.

[frozennorth]

1. NDSU 11-0 vs. Montana (8-3)/ Nicholls State (9-2) winner
2. JMU 11-0 vs. Lehigh (6-5)/Stony Brook (8-3) winner
3. USD 10-1 vs. SHSU (10-1)/Samford (7-4) winner
4. JSU 10-1 vs. Delaware (8-3)/Elon (8-3) winner
5. Wofford 10-1 vs. Charleston So. (8-3)/Campbell (9-2) winner
6. EWU 9-2 vs. NAU (8-3)/Weber State (8-3) winner
7. YSU 8-3 vs. Villanova (8-3)/Duquesne (9-2) winner
8. UCA 10-1 vs. Western Illinois (9-2)/WCU (8-4) winner

[Coyote Fan]

I wonder what criteria they use for this. The Coyotes are currently 6-0 so I don't understand what computer or ranking system would have them finishing 3-2 after a 6-0 start. I can understand them losing to NDSU but they should be favored in every other game as things stand today. That would be 10.0 which is still less then what NDSU's projection is. If you take everything into account that is based on this year only I would think USD's SOS would be pretty good at this point. I heard some computers rank them #1 in the country. Who knows maybe they will fall apart a bit and finish 8-3 but based on what has happened this year and this year only I don't understand the 8.94 projection.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

It was also before any football was played. Nova just held JMU to 49 yards rushing. Their rush D is unbelievable.

To be fair, Schor did get sacked for a 18-yard loss on 3rd and goal from the 2-yard line. xconfusedx That certainly helped bolster the stat line. Similarly, JMU has been doing a fantastic job getting to the QB this year, also padding the Dukes' run defense. That said both defenses are championship quality. xthumbsupx

[Professor Chaos]

I wonder what criteria they use for this. The Coyotes are currently 6-0 so I don't understand what computer or ranking system would have them finishing 3-2 after a 6-0 start. I can understand them losing to NDSU but they should be favored in every other game as things stand today. That would be 10.0 which is still less then what NDSU's projection is. If you take everything into account that is based on this year only I would think USD's SOS would be pretty good at this point. I heard some computers rank them #1 in the country. Who knows maybe they will fall apart a bit and finish 8-3 but based on what has happened this year and this year only I don't understand the 8.94 projection.
Just because a team is favored to win doesn't mean the projection adds 1 to their projected win total and moves on. Think of it as if they played 100 times. According to Massey USD has a 76% chance to beat ISUr this Saturday so if they played 100 times USD should win 76 times and ISUr should win 24 times. So based on that Massey would project USD to have 6.76 wins by this time next week (or just round up to 7).

Where the losses start getting projected in is when the probabilities start compounding over multiple games. USD is favored @ISUr (76%), vs SIU (79%), @UNI (52%), and vs SDSU (67%) and they're not favored against NDSU (21%). If you compound all those probabilities together (basically just add up the decimal value of each probability) you'll get the figure for projected additional wins (0.76 + 0.79 + 0.52 + 0.67 + 0.21 = 2.95).

With each game USD wins that projected win total will get bumped up. For instance if they beat ISUr on Saturday they get credit for 1 win instead of 0.76 wins so their projected win total would go to 9.18 if none win probabilities of their remaining games change (which they will slightly). Likewise if they lose they get 0 instead of 0.76 so their projected win total goes down to 8.18 (given no other changes).

I think it's a good way to project wins because it accounts for upsets and we all know upsets happen.

[caribbeanhen]

To be fair, Schor did get sacked for a 18-yard loss on 3rd and goal from the 2-yard line. xconfusedx That certainly helped bolster the stat line. Similarly, JMU has been doing a fantastic job getting to the QB this year, also padding the Dukes' run defense. That said both defenses are championship quality. xthumbsupx

and Who do you think is the better Defense Villanova or Delaware?

[BisonTru]

Just because a team is favored to win doesn't mean the projection adds 1 to their projected win total and moves on. Think of it as if they played 100 times. According to Massey USD has a 76% chance to beat ISUr this Saturday so if they played 100 times USD should win 76 times and ISUr should win 24 times. So based on that Massey would project USD to have 6.76 wins by this time next week (or just round up to 7).

Where the losses start getting projected in is when the probabilities start compounding over multiple games. USD is favored @ISUr (76%), vs SIU (79%), @UNI (52%), and vs SDSU (67%) and they're not favored against NDSU (21%). If you compound all those probabilities together (basically just add up the decimal value of each probability) you'll get the figure for projected additional wins (0.76 + 0.79 + 0.52 + 0.67 + 0.21 = 2.95).

With each game USD wins that projected win total will get bumped up. For instance if they beat ISUr on Saturday they get credit for 1 win instead of 0.76 wins so their projected win total would go to 9.18 if none win probabilities of their remaining games change (which they will slightly). Likewise if they lose they get 0 instead of 0.76 so their projected win total goes down to 8.18 (given no other changes).

I think it's a good way to project wins because it accounts for upsets and we all know upsets happen.

All of this. Good post.

[jmufan999]

and Who do you think is the better Defense Villanova or Delaware?

i think it’s Nova. we straight up dropped 2 surefire TD passes in Newark. really no excuses against Nova. offense put up 23 against them and that’s actually not terrible. UD is right in the ballpark, though.


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[RootinFerDukes]

i think it’s Nova. we straight up dropped 2 surefire TD passes in Newark. really no excuses against Nova. offense put up 23 against them and that’s actually not terrible. UD is right in the ballpark, though.


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Delaware's was tougher on the score board (13 offense points compared to 23 from VU). We don't know how much the high winds in Newark hurt our passing game.

[RootinFerDukes]

i think it’s Nova. we straight up dropped 2 surefire TD passes in Newark. really no excuses against Nova. offense put up 23 against them and that’s actually not terrible. UD is right in the ballpark, though.


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Delaware's was tougher on the score board (13 offense points compared to 23 from VU). We don't know how much the high winds in Newark hurt our passing game.

[Gangtackle11]

Delaware's was tougher on the score board (13 offense points compared to 23 from VU). We don't know how much the high winds in Newark hurt our passing game.

JMU scored 30, but last 7 came on a pick 6 on a screen pass on our 4 yard line. (Nice call)

Nova stopped JMU 3x inside the 10 & held them to FGs. JMU was punting the ball when our special teams gave them a 1st down on jumping the count. That led to a short field and a score with 1 minute left in 1st half. Game went 6-0 to 13-0 thanks to providing JMU a 1st down instead of them
punting.

They all count & JMU whipped our butt, but I’d be careful explaining away that Delaware is a better defense than Nova.

[dustinthorn93]

1. James Madison (11-0) vs Kennesaw State (8-3)/Nicholls State (9-2) winner
2. North Dakota State (11-0) vs Weber State (8-3)/McNeese State (9-2) winner
3. South Dakota (10-1) vs Montana (8-3)/Elon (8-3) winner
4. Jacksonville State (10-1) vs Youngstown State (8-3)/Delaware (8-3) winner
5. Wofford (10-1) vs North Carolina A&T (10-1)/Western Carolina (8-4) winner
6. Central Arkansas (10-1) vs Lehigh (6-5)/Campbell (9-2) winner
7. Eastern Washington (9-2) vs Sam Houston State (10-1)/Northern Arizona (8-3) winner
8. Western Illinois (9-2) vs Villanova (8-3)/Duquesne (9-2) winner

[RootinFerDukes]

They're comparable defensively except nova has a better rushing defense. What i do know is we struggled to score more against UD than VU. That's a fact.

[jmufan999]

They're comparable defensively except nova has a better rushing defense. What i do know is we struggled to score more against UD than VU. That's a fact.

i'm not sure there is a wrong answer. it's tough. but let me ask you this: let's say we had a rematch with both teams on a neutral field, weather is not a factor (clear skies, no wind/precipitation). which defense would you rather face a 2nd time? pick one (meaning, no fence riding).

EDIT: i'm changing the question to which TEAM would you rather face, because the opposing offense can change our field position, takeaways for us, etc.

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware's was tougher on the score board (13 offense points compared to 23 from VU). We don't know how much the high winds in Newark hurt our passing game.

Fair enough

[jmu007]

JMU scored 30, but last 7 came on a pick 6 on a screen pass on our 4 yard line. (Nice call)

Nova stopped JMU 3x inside the 10 & held them to FGs. JMU was punting the ball when our special teams gave them a 1st down on jumping the count. That led to a short field and a score with 1 minute left in 1st half. Game went 6-0 to 13-0 thanks to providing JMU a 1st down instead of them
punting.

They all count & JMU whipped our butt, but I’d be careful explaining away that Delaware is a better defense than Nova.

I think Rootin' was saying Nova was better even if UD held JMU to fewer points or at least that's how I took it.

[Gangtackle11]

They're comparable defensively except nova has a better rushing defense. What i do know is we struggled to score more against UD than VU. That's a fact.

We’ll give them the better defense. We’ll continue our dominance in the win column. xpeacex

[Gangtackle11]

I think Rootin' was saying Nova was better even if UD held JMU to fewer points or at least that's how I took it.

I was responding to the general conversation . Just quoted his post. All good.

[RootinFerDukes]

It’d rather face VU again. We had trouble containing Walker. I know he’s been benched.

[NorthChuckSouth]

1. NDSU 11-0 vs. Montana (8-3)/ Nicholls State (9-2) winner
2. JMU 11-0 vs. Lehigh (6-5)/Stony Brook (8-3) winner
3. USD 10-1 vs. SHSU (10-1)/Samford (7-4) winner
4. JSU 10-1 vs. Delaware (8-3)/Elon (8-3) winner
5. Wofford 10-1 vs. Charleston So. (8-3)/Campbell (9-2) winner
6. EWU 9-2 vs. NAU (8-3)/Weber State (8-3) winner
7. YSU 8-3 vs. Villanova (8-3)/Duquesne (9-2) winner
8. UCA 10-1 vs. Western Illinois (9-2)/WCU (8-4) winner

IF we are able to get our offense together I could see us playing Western and the winner plays Wofford.. based on the regionalization in the previous years

[Gangtackle11]

Foxsports.com

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/the-crystal-ball-fcs-playoff-projections-101717

[wcugrad95]

IF we are able to get our offense together I could see us playing Western and the winner plays Wofford.. based on the regionalization in the previous years

Right now I am just hopeful WCU gets in the playoffs and can finish with 8 wins. But if we did, from a "regionalization" perspective that would be preferred for me. With the bracket you are referencing, we would probably end up having to go to Western Illinois and if we were lucky enough to win that game, then have to go to UCA. I know they can't make it work out for everybody, but this scenario has lots of ***potential*** travel for WCU if we were to play well. I see other matchups here that try to keep conferences aligned for later games, so why wouldn't they try and lineup WCU or Samford to play Wofford like I have seen over and over again in year's past?

[dewey]

Here is the Bison Media Blog's weekly bracketology.

Dewey https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171019/52a652836d9926d668813bbcf3a32a9f.jpg

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[JSUSoutherner]

Here is the Bison Media Blog's weekly bracketology.

Dewey https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171019/52a652836d9926d668813bbcf3a32a9f.jpg

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Yes please.

[Professor]

1. James Madison (11-0) vs Kennesaw State (8-3)/Nicholls State (9-2) winner
2. North Dakota State (11-0) vs Weber State (8-3)/McNeese State (9-2) winner
3. South Dakota (10-1) vs Montana (8-3)/Elon (8-3) winner
4. Jacksonville State (10-1) vs Youngstown State (8-3)/Delaware (8-3) winner
5. Wofford (10-1) vs North Carolina A&T (10-1)/Western Carolina (8-4) winner
6. Central Arkansas (10-1) vs Lehigh (6-5)/Campbell (9-2) winner
7. Eastern Washington (9-2) vs Sam Houston State (10-1)/Northern Arizona (8-3) winner
8. Western Illinois (9-2) vs Villanova (8-3)/Duquesne (9-2) winner

Yeah if we lose to NCCU , I can see playing W. Carolina or Elon. Wonder could we get the home game?

Could a 9-2 NCCU with a FBS loss and a loss to their conference champ get in?

[dustinthorn93]

Yeah if we lose to NCCU , I can see playing W. Carolina or Elon. Wonder could we get the home game?

Could a 9-2 NCCU with a FBS loss and a loss to their conference champ get in?

The only reason I would say no to NCCU is because their are already no 7-4 teams in my bracket. The only one under 8-3 is 6-5 Lehigh with an autobid from the Patriot. I don't think the committee would respect 9-2 NCCU. They should, but I don't think they would. Unfortunately.

[Gangtackle11]

The only reason I would say no to NCCU is because their are already no 7-4 teams in my bracket. The only one under 8-3 is 6-5 Lehigh with an autobid from the Patriot. I don't think the committee would respect 9-2 NCCU. They should, but I don't think they would. Unfortunately.

9-2 would actually be 8-2 since they have a win over D2 Shaw.

[dustinthorn93]

9-2 would actually be 8-2 since they have a win over D2 Shaw.

True. Good point.

[dbackjon]

Yeah if we lose to NCCU , I can see playing W. Carolina or Elon. Wonder could we get the home game?

Could a 9-2 NCCU with a FBS loss and a loss to their conference champ get in?


I would say yes

[Gangtackle11]

Which of these 2 teams would u take:


Team A: 9-2
Massey rank 163
L -#167
W - #305 (D2)
W- #245
W- #373
W- #238
W- #266
Projected outcomes
W- #340
L- #113
W- #205
W- #283
W- #358

or Team B: 9-2
Massey Rank: 182
L- # 42 (FBS)
W- #558 (D2)
W- #285
W- #337
W- #236
W- #268
Projected outcomes
W- #325
W- #459
W- #293
W- #232
L- #145

* Neither team is projected in the brackets.
A: McNeese State
B: NCCU

[dbackjon]

Team B, but really close

[Professor]

9-2 would actually be 8-2 since they have a win over D2 Shaw.

Does committee not count D2 wins?

[BisonTru]

Does committee not count D2 wins?

No


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[katss07]

Does BMZ run their weekly bracket projections like nobowls where they say "if the season ended today" or is it assuming what plays out over the course of the season?