Big Lie Conference at large: theft?

[kalm]

Wasn't it just a week or so ago that the MVFC and CAA were each getting 6 teams in at least?

Don't look now, but the Big Fluffy Lie Conference has five, two-loss teams, and another three with three losses. The lowest SOS of these is 31 with three of the teams in the top 10 and 5 in the top 20 SOS.

If you like computers, there are 5 BFLC in the top 20.

Prediction: The BFLC might just steal an at-large and make the MVFC and CAA have to suffer with only 5 playoff births.

Stay tuned...

[BisonFan02]

The MVFC is going to be upsetting each other. They only got 2 in 2010....gonna be alot of 3-4 loss teams.

[taper]

Won't matter. Historically EWU is about the only one to get past their first game. Nice to have a cupcake Thanksgiving weekend.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

The MVFC is going to be upsetting each other. They only got 2 in 2010....gonna be alot of 3-4 loss teams.

Same with the CAA. Villanova case in point.

[kalm]

Same with the CAA. Villanova case in point.

But the Big Fluffy Lie won't?

[MTfan4life]

Wasn't it just a week or so ago that the MVFC and CAA were each getting 6 teams in at least?

Don't look now, but the Big Fluffy Lie Conference has five, two-loss teams, and another three with three losses. The lowest SOS of these is 31 with three of the teams in the top 10 and 5 in the top 20 SOS.

If you like computers, there are 5 BFLC in the top 20.

Prediction: The BFLC might just steal an at-large and make the MVFC and CAA have to suffer with only 5 playoff births.

Stay tuned...

The thefts will happen from the Southland. The juggernauts of Northwestern State and Stephen F. Austin have tried to stop it from happening. But right now, it's looking like the season could very well result in a 9-2 Nicholls, 9-2 McNeese, 10-1 Central Arkansas, and 10-1 Sam Houston State. The OVC could very well steal one, too, if EIU and APU both take care of business, they will play for 8-3 to finish the season. Last year the committee put in the MEAC loser. With NC A&T and NC Central running away with things, that 9-2/10-1 loser could get in as well.

[TheKingpin28]

The thefts will happen from the Southland. The juggernauts of Northwestern State and Stephen F. Austin have tried to stop it from happening. But right now, it's looking like the season could very well result in a 9-2 Nicholls, 9-2 McNeese, 10-1 Central Arkansas, and 10-1 Sam Houston State. The OVC could very well steal one, too, if EIU and APU both take care of business, they will play for 8-3 to finish the season. Last year the committee put in the MEAC loser. With NC A&T and NC Central running away with things, that 9-2/10-1 loser could get in as well.

Honest question, can you name 24 teams that are worthy to get in? Right now, I am stuck at 14 teams that are worthy of the playoffs. I would be happy if we just cut the playoffs to 12 and I would be content.

1st round BYE (No order): NDSU, USeD, JMU, JSU

Next 8 out of 10 (No order): YSU, Elon, WIU, UCA, EWU, Wofford, WCU, SHSU, Richmond, Samford

[Reign of Terrier]

Honest question, can you name 24 teams that are worthy to get in? Right now, I am stuck at 14 teams that are worthy of the playoffs. I would be happy if we just cut the playoffs to 12 and I would be content.

1st round BYE (No order): NDSU, USeD, JMU, JSU

Next 8 out of 10 (No order): YSU, Elon, WIU, UCA, EWU, Wofford, WCU, SHSU, Richmond, Samford

I think a 7-4 Furman or Mercer team (or both) gets into the playoffs as well at the rate the Socon is playing. If Mercer wins out and Furman only loses to Mercer there's no justification keeping either out, given how weak the collective field. The game this weekend between Samford and Wofford is in many ways more important to Samford because they can't afford to lose more than one down the stretch and they still have Furman, citadel and Mercer to play

[PantherRob82]

I think the Big Sky gets 3 at the most.

[Cocky]

The Southland is setting up to have multiple teams knocking on the door, too.

[PantherRob82]

The Southland is setting up to have multiple teams knocking on the door, too.

I can't imagine the SLC with more than 2 teams. Weird stuff always happens down there.

[Professor Chaos]

I think the Big Sky gets 3 at the most.
Unless they really cannibalize each other I think there's a good possibility 4 Big Sky teams get to 7 D1 wins or more so I think 4 is more likely than 3.

It's all pretty speculative still but I see the CAA and MVFC with 5 each, the Big Sky with 4, the SOCON with 3, and SLC the with 2 pending some really weird intra-conference upsets down the stretch.

[Utgrizfan]

Won't matter. Historically EWU is about the only one to get past their first game. Nice to have a cupcake Thanksgiving weekend.

Funny Montana seems to always do well in the first round especially against the MVFC, SDSU just can't catch a break

[Grizalltheway]

Funny Montana seems to always do well in the first round especially against the MVFC, SDSU just can't catch a break
God I would love it if they got sent to Missoula again.xlolx
Agree with Rob though, I think it will be EWU, Webes, the Griz and possibly NAU.

[PantherRob82]

I think the Big Sky gets:

EWU

and 2 of this group:
-NAU
-Montana
-Weber State
-maybe MT ST or SUU

[taper]

Funny Montana seems to always do well in the first round especially against the MVFC, SDSU just can't catch a break

Are we remembering the same history? Since your runner up in 2009 I count a one score win over SDSU and one win over non-scholly San Diego. Not counting your vacated season.

[Silenoz]

3-1? What's your point?

[Grizalltheway]

3-1? What's your point?
Lol at not counting wins because players got some free hotdogs and Johnson got a little rowdy at a party.

[UNHWildcat18]

MEAC SWAC should not get a bid unless they have an auto, didn't they cancel their "bowl" after this year?

[Professor Chaos]

MEAC SWAC should not get a bid unless they have an auto, didn't they cancel their "bowl" after this year?
No. I believe the SWAC is cancelling their championship game but the Celebration Bowl is still going strong.

[kalm]

I think the Big Sky gets:

EWU

and 2 of this group:
-NAU
-Montana
-Weber State
-maybe MT ST or SUU

Regarding Weber ahead of SUU, SUU has the H2H. Remaining schedules are comparable. Weber is @ EWU and hosts Montana. SUU hosts EWU and NAU. Montana hosts NAU and is at Weber. EWU is at SUU and hosts Weber. NAU is @ UM and SUU.

[PantherRob82]

SWAC can’t get an at large until the championship game goes away. I’m okay with a MEAC at large now that we are at 24.

For everything they get ripped for, those conferences also get a lot of things right.

[PantherRob82]

Regarding Weber ahead of SUU, SUU has the H2H. Remaining schedules are comparable. Weber is @ EWU and hosts Montana. SUU hosts EWU and NAU. Montana hosts NAU and is at Weber. EWU is at SUU and hosts Weber. NAU is @ UM and SUU.

They aren’t above or below. 2 of that group. :)

[Cocky]

Unless they really cannibalize each other I think there's a good possibility 4 Big Sky teams get to 7 D1 wins or more so I think 4 is more likely than 3.

It's all pretty speculative still but I see the CAA and MVFC with 5 each, the Big Sky with 4, the SOCON with 3, and SLC the with 2 pending some really weird intra-conference upsets down the stretch.
If AP wins out in FCS the OVC will get two. AP would be 8-4 win 3 FBS losses and 1 FCS loss.

[dudeitsaid]

Seems like this is leading to some early braketology.

But definitely a lot to still sort out. If EWU puts it all together and finishes strong, they will be a tough team to beat. If they continue to struggle with consistancy, they could go 2-2 to finish the season on the bubble...

[Professor Chaos]

If AP wins out in FCS the OVC will get two. AP would be 8-4 win 3 FBS losses and 1 FCS loss.
Ok their losses would all be "good" I guess but they won't have much for wins. I think they'd have a hard time stacking up with most 7-4 MVFC/CAA teams. If the next best option is a 6-5 team they'd have a good argument.

[NDSUtk]

If AP wins out in FCS the OVC will get two. AP would be 8-4 win 3 FBS losses and 1 FCS loss.They have 12 games this season? Weird.

I have to say only one FCS loss would put them in. I disagree with Chaos on that point. Hard to argue against an 8-1 FCS team in my opinion.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[Cocky]

They have 12 games this season? Weird.

I have to say only one FCS loss would put them in. I disagree with Chaos on that point. Hard to argue against an 8-1 FCS team in my opinion.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

AP was given the waiver to add the UCF game during the season. Not sure they are playoff quality but I agree with only one FCS loss AP will be hard to keep out. On the positive side, rewarding a school who has improved their commitment to football by leaps and bounds wouldnt be all bad.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Montana State is already done.....

NAU..WEBER..and MONTANA will all work each other in or out over the final half of the season. One of those 3 probably wont make it.

[kalm]

Montana State is already done.....

NAU..WEBER..and MONTANA will all work each other in or out over the final half of the season. One of those 3 probably wont make it.

It's like SUU doesn't even exist.

There's also a good chance of an upset or two from below. Sac, Davis, and ISU have all looked solid at times.

[SactoHornetFan]

It's like SUU doesn't even exist.

There's also a good chance of an upset or two from below. Sac, Davis, and ISU have all looked solid at times.

Dont rule out Sac State. If we run the tables, we will be in. We also have the H2H with SUU and if we were to beat NAU, we'd have that as well. That will be tough because we have to go to Flagstaff. But very favorable otherwise the rest of the way. First up at UND this week.

[kalm]

Dont rule out Sac State. If we run the tables, we will be in. We also have the H2H with SUU and if we were to beat NAU, we'd have that as well. That will be tough because we have to go to Flagstaff. But very favorable otherwise the rest of the way. First up at UND this week.

Yep

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Let's get this out of the way now: If 10-0 NCAT is playing 9-1 NCCU during the final weekend of the year, the loser of that game is going to make the playoffs because there aren't enough better at-large teams.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I think the Big Sky gets 3 at the most.We shouldn't

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[WestCoastAggie]

Let's get this out of the way now: If 10-0 NCAT is playing 9-1 NCCU during the final weekend of the year, the loser of that game is going to make the playoffs because there aren't enough better at-large teams.

Oh boy... Here we go.

[BisonFan02]

Let's get this out of the way now: If 10-0 NCAT is playing 9-1 NCCU during the final weekend of the year, the loser of that game is going to make the playoffs because there aren't enough better at-large teams.

Rad....opening round fodder.

[taper]

Let's get this out of the way now: If 10-0 NCAT is playing 9-1 NCCU during the final weekend of the year, the loser of that game is going to make the playoffs because there aren't enough better at-large teams.

I agree the committee will definitely select one, I disagree there aren't better teams that'll be left out. Fair?

[Catbooster]

Montana State is already done.....

NAU..WEBER..and MONTANA will all work each other in or out over the final half of the season. One of those 3 probably wont make it.
Theoretically, MSU is not done, but they have to win out to get 7 wins. I agree that's unlikely, but if they manage to pull it off, I think they'd be considered since their strength of schedule is fairly good, winning out would likely mean wins over a couple ranked teams and they'd be finishing on a hot streak. But yes, unlikely.

UC-Davis can lose 1 more and still reach 7 wins. A little more likely than MSU, but still unlikely IMO.

Sac State has to win out to reach 7 D-I wins. I don't think that will happen.

That leaves the likely candidates of EWU, NAU, SUU, Weber and UM. Weber can only lose 1 more and the rest can lose 2 more games and still reach 7 wins.

IMO UM has the weakest resume of these teams at this point. They've beaten the teams on their schedule, but it's a weak schedule. Their results against conference teams are fairly average (a point I apparently worded poorly and didn't get across in a poor attempt at humor on another thread this weekend).

[SactoHornetFan]

Theoretically, MSU is not done, but they have to win out to get 7 wins. I agree that's unlikely, but if they manage to pull it off, I think they'd be considered since their strength of schedule is fairly good, winning out would likely mean wins over a couple ranked teams and they'd be finishing on a hot streak. But yes, unlikely.

UC-Davis can lose 1 more and still reach 7 wins. A little more likely than MSU, but still unlikely IMO.

Sac State has to win out to reach 7 D-I wins. I don't think that will happen.

That leaves the likely candidates of EWU, NAU, SUU, Weber and UM. Weber can only lose 1 more and the rest can lose 2 more games and still reach 7 wins.

IMO UM has the weakest resume of these teams at this point. They've beaten the teams on their schedule, but it's a weak schedule. Their results against conference teams are fairly average (a point I apparently worded poorly and didn't get across in a poor attempt at humor on another thread this weekend).

If we win out, we will have 8 D-1 wins. We play an all D-I schedule this year.

http://hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2017-18/schedule


(http://hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2017-18/schedule)

[Catbooster]

If we win out, we will have 8 D-1 wins. We play an all D-I schedule this year.

http://hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2017-18/schedule


(http://hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2017-18/schedule)
Sorry about that - you're right. I should have put you between UC-Davis and MSU - unlikely but possible IMO.

[SactoHornetFan]

Sorry about that - you're right. I should have put you between UC-Davis and MSU - unlikely but possible IMO.

On paper, we should be favored or slightly in all but the game in Flagstaff in two weeks and then Causeway where we never can beat those guys it seems. Every other week we should be favored.

[Catbooster]

On paper, we should be favored or slightly in all but the game in Flagstaff in two weeks and then Causeway where we never can beat those guys it seems. Every other week we should be favored.
If we assume both of you lose to NAU, it probably comes down to the Causeway for who gets 7 wins. Right now, I'd give Davis the edge.

Edit to add: NAU has a history of fading down the stretch. I'm hoping they do when we play them

[SactoHornetFan]

If we assume both of you lose to NAU, it probably comes down to the Causeway for who gets 7 wins. Right now, I'd give Davis the edge.

Edit to add: NAU has a history of fading down the stretch. I'm hoping they do when we play them

We've been waiting for a Causeway of this magnitude (well hoping one day it would be for a Big Sky Championship). But a playoff berth on the line would be something (and in theory, that would make Causeway a playoff game in of itself).

[HensRock]

The thefts will happen from the Southland. The juggernauts of Northwestern State and Stephen F. Austin have tried to stop it from happening. But right now, it's looking like the season could very well result in a 9-2 Nicholls, 9-2 McNeese, 10-1 Central Arkansas, and 10-1 Sam Houston State. The OVC could very well steal one, too, if EIU and APU both take care of business, they will play for 8-3 to finish the season. Last year the committee put in the MEAC loser. With NC A&T and NC Central running away with things, that 9-2/10-1 loser could get in as well.

This^

These conferences are not as balanced as BSC, CAA, and MVFC. ==> Less cannibalism!

[F'N Hawks]

On paper, we should be favored or slightly in all but the game in Flagstaff in two weeks and then Causeway where we never can beat those guys it seems. Every other week we should be favored.

You're a 3.5 point underdog to UND's freshman/JV team this weekend. They are filling in for the varsity - have fun.

[cx500d]

You're a 3.5 point underdog to UND's freshman/JV team this weekend. They are filling in for the varsity - have fun.


ballSac State is going to pound UND