SOCON Picks for the 2nd Half of 2017

[youcanbankit]

We predict the SOCON has 3-4 teams make the playoffs, 2-3 teams limp in due to tough FBS games late in the year.

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[Terrier19]

Wofford wont be losing to both Samford and Chatt at home.......

[youcanbankit]

You could be right. Tough schedule with being away at the Citadel, then Samford, then travel to ETSU then Chattanooga at home. Taking the bye week so early in the year, we think will wear on the team starting this week. See them losing 2-4, but you could be right.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Wofford will be, at worst, an 8-3 team. I just don't see us losing more than 2 more games in FCS given the remainder of our schedule. A single loss isn't always a bad thing, because it can get a team's mind in the right place.

As for the subject matter of this thread, I'll have a more nuanced prediction for what goes on, but later this weekend.

I think we'll have three in: Wofford, Western and Furman. That prediction could change in a couple weeks, though. What I see from Samford suggest they are vulnerable given the remainder of their schedule. Furman's defense is so-so, but their offense is ungodly efficient and that will get them in when it's all said and done.

[Smitty]

So you think Western will go 1-4 for the rest of the season with our only win coming against VMI? I know we will lose against North Carolina but I would like to think we can pick up a game against The Citadel and Mercer

[Reign of Terrier]

Western's run defense is slightly suspect but I don't think they'll lose to the Citadel

[youcanbankit]

So you think Western will go 1-4 for the rest of the season with our only win coming against VMI? I know we will lose against North Carolina but I would like to think we can pick up a game against The Citadel and Mercer

Your right it could go either way versus the Citadel, Furman and Mercer. Have them with a slight edge, but could go either way. WCU has been surprising folks all year.

[youcanbankit]

Wofford wont be losing to both Samford and Chatt at home.......

We keep thinking Chatt will have at least one bounce back game.....Maybe not.

[Toby]

Who is WE?

[Reign of Terrier]

Chattanooga won't threaten anyone until they develop a running game

[BearDownMU]

So you've got Samford winning out. Got it... Explain your mathmatical equation for how you got there to youngterrier. lol

[Reign of Terrier]

So you've got Samford winning out. Got it... Explain your mathmatical equation for how you got there to youngterrier. lol

Well if we're talking about averages and being probabilistic, it's possible so not unreasonable.

Put another way, all prediction about future games are *possible,* that doesn't mean they are likely or supported by facts/math/stats

All of this is much different from weighting a team's performance mathematically for power ranking purposes.

[walliver]

Who is WE?

Me, myself and I?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[ElCid]

Who is WE?

Maybe he has a hamster in his pocket.

[Smitty]

Maybe he has a hamster in his pocket.

The brains behind the account...

https://thumb7.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/679093/185821271/stock-photo-golden-hamster-working-on-laptop-computer-185821271.jpg

[wcugrad95]

Western's run defense is slightly suspect but I don't think they'll lose to the Citadel

I know it was ETSU (who were 3-3 with a SoCon win to their credit coming in), but WCU absolutely shut the Buc's offense completely down today. Throw out a long completion after the Cats had gone up 28-3 and ETSU really didn't have any explosive plays I can remember. I know that is not against some of the better running teams we still have to play, but this was the best defensive game I have seen WCU play in a VERY long time.

And we struggled on offense some today, but our top-2 RBs were on the shelf (Newsome didn't play and Holloway only played a handful of snaps). So our 3rd-string RB rushed for 139 yards and 4 scores in a game where we struggled throwing the football as ETSU loaded up to contain Adams with the other guys out. Defense with a pick-6, another pick return to inside the 10, and a blocked punt returned for a score led to the best team win for the Cats I can remember. We might not win another game, but if our defense looks anything like they did today and our offense gets back on track I think we are going to have a chance/be in all the conference games we have left.

[Reign of Terrier]

I know it was ETSU (who were 3-3 with a SoCon win to their credit coming in), but WCU absolutely shut the Buc's offense completely down today. Throw out a long completion after the Cats had gone up 28-3 and ETSU really didn't have any explosive plays I can remember. I know that is not against some of the better running teams we still have to play, but this was the best defensive game I have seen WCU play in a VERY long time.

And we struggled on offense some today, but our top-2 RBs were on the shelf (Newsome didn't play and Holloway only played a handful of snaps). So our 3rd-string RB rushed for 139 yards and 4 scores in a game where we struggled throwing the football as ETSU loaded up to contain Adams with the other guys out. Defense with a pick-6, another pick return to inside the 10, and a blocked punt returned for a score led to the best team win for the Cats I can remember. We might not win another game, but if our defense looks anything like they did today and our offense gets back on track I think we are going to have a chance/be in all the conference games we have left.

What was weird to me looking at the game early was the fact that ETSU had about 90 yards rushing in the first half. That was just weird.

But if I'm a Western fan, I'm pleased from the performance. Obviously it's a blowout, but beyond that ETSU has a good (or at the very least improving) offense, especially if they are trying to play catch up and passing the ball. No disputing that point. Keeping them to 10, especially given Western's recent defensive woes, is a good performance.

[wcugrad95]

What was weird to me looking at the game early was the fact that ETSU had about 90 yards rushing in the first half. That was just weird.

But if I'm a Western fan, I'm pleased from the performance. Obviously it's a blowout, but beyond that ETSU has a good (or at the very least improving) offense, especially if they are trying to play catch up and passing the ball. No disputing that point. Keeping them to 10, especially given Western's recent defensive woes, is a good performance.

ETSU picked up nearly half of that rushing yardage on their first series. Western came out flat to start the game, but the defense stiffened and held them to 3. That was 42 yards on the first drive, then only 48 for the rest of the half. Then they had a whole lot of nothing other than their 1 scoring drive in the second half where they finally hit a long pass. I don't remember a game where WCU forced the other team to punt 9 times and have 2 other drives end in interceptions. That is 2 scoring drives in 13. I know you like those efficiency ratios, so that is a pretty good ratio for the Cat's D.

[woffordgrad94]

This is a total joke. I can buy Samford but their ain’t no way Chattanooga is coming to THE DOGGHOUSE and beating us. AIN’T NO PANCAKE FLIPPIN’ WAY! The Mocs are crap this year and they have no shot in hell! ZERO, ZILCH, NADA! And this is in no way smack...it is simply the truth. Cold hard reality. You almost might as well pick VMI against us.

[wcugrad95]

Although it probably won't make a huge difference, but 6 of the top-16 teams in the AGS poll lost this weekend. Some of those were against other highly-ranked teams (i.e. Youngstown State and Villanova), but a few of the teams had what I thought were pretty bad losses (i.e. SDSU and Illinois State). I ***think*** WCU and Samford will move up a couple to as many as 3 spots, and Furman should move a little closer to the top-25 in the "others" voting. The Furman/Mercer game will go a long way in determining if we can get a 4th team in the top-25 after next week, as Wofford and Samford will remain regardless of the outcome of their game (and assuming WCU doesn't have a meltdown against VMI).

At this stage, and given how many close games we continue to see, I don't see how anybody can project/guess at winners more than for the next weekend.

[woffordgrad94]

Chattanooga and VMI are the only two outliers...games against those guys should be wins for anyone else. But other than that, yeah, it’s kind of a free for all. The top six teams are all very close. You might could argue ETSU is also kind of an outlier, but the Bucs have proven they are capable of upsets. The Mocs and Keydets are as far away from the word “upset” as Ned Flanders.

[FUBeAR]

Although it probably won't make a huge difference, but 6 of the top-16 teams in the AGS poll lost this weekend. Some of those were against other highly-ranked teams (i.e. Youngstown State and Villanova), but a few of the teams had what I thought were pretty bad losses (i.e. SDSU and Illinois State). I ***think*** WCU and Samford will move up a couple to as many as 3 spots, and Furman should move a little closer to the top-25 in the "others" voting. The Furman/Mercer game will go a long way in determining if we can get a 4th team in the top-25 after next week, as Wofford and Samford will remain regardless of the outcome of their game (and assuming WCU doesn't have a meltdown against VMI).

You are right & I’m dropping those MVFC Teams like a cinder block in my poll. SDSU & YSU have NO good wins & Illinois State now has 2 bad back-to-back losses. If YSU can take NDSU to OT, I gotta have my doubts about the bizuns also. I said it before this week and was, of course, excoriated for it, but it’s time to take a REAL HARD look at the MVFC. And the Big Lie (Sky) Conference as well. They pooped all over the linens in last year’s Playoffs & haven’t shown anything this year to dispel the idea that, outside of EWU, there’s not a Team in that Conference worthy of a Playoff bid.