SoCon Playoff chaos scenario

[Reign of Terrier]

Looking at the Socon right now, I think we're going to get 2 teams in the playoffs for sure, with 3 being the most likely number. There is one possible scenario in which 5 get in, here it is.

Wofford (currently 5-0) wins (at least) 3 of the next 5, finishing 8-3 or 9-2 (outcome against Citadel is irrelevant.

Western Carolina loses to both Furman and Mercer and finishes 7-4

Samford loses to Mercer and Furman, finishes 7-4 but beats Wofford

Furman wins out, but loses to Mercer, finishes 7-4.

Mercer wins out, finishes 7-4.

Some may look at this and say that only Wofford gets in. They would also point out that Samford wouldn't/shouldn't qualify, noting having 7 D1 wins. But they did last year. Samford could have a quality win at Wofford

Furman could have quality losses to Wofford, Elon, NC State and Mercer but quality wins against Western and Samford

Mercer would have a quality win at Furman and Samford, and a quality loss to Wofford, Auburn and an understandable loss to Alabama.

And finally Western would have numerous quality losses and a quality win against Samford.

Now, will this happen? No idea? does it harm the concept of quality wins or losses with this sort of inconsistency? Yes

But all of this is possible, as is the socon playoff race

[FUBeAR]

Looking at the Socon right now, I think we're going to get 2 teams in the playoffs for sure, with 3 being the most likely number. There is one possible scenario in which 5 get in, here it is.

Wofford (currently 5-0) wins (at least) 3 of the next 5, finishing 8-3 or 9-2 (outcome against Citadel is irrelevant.

Western Carolina loses to both Furman and Mercer and finishes 7-4

Samford loses to Mercer and Furman, finishes 7-4 but beats Wofford

Furman wins out, but loses to Mercer, finishes 7-4.

Mercer wins out, finishes 7-4.

Some may look at this and say that only Wofford gets in. They would also point out that Samford wouldn't/shouldn't qualify, noting having 7 D1 wins. But they did last year. Samford could have a quality win at Wofford

Furman could have quality losses to Wofford, Elon, NC State and Mercer but quality wins against Western and Samford

Mercer would have a quality win at Furman and Samford, and a quality loss to Wofford, Auburn and an understandable loss to Alabama.

And finally Western would have numerous quality losses and a quality win against Samford.

Now, will this happen? No idea? does it harm the concept of quality wins or losses with this sort of inconsistency? Yes

But all of this is possible, as is the socon playoff race

I was about to suggest on the other thread that you should do the math on this and work through it. Cool - Thanks!

I'm sure the MVFC, CAA, and Big Lie Conference guys will be right over soon to support the 5 Teams from the SoCon scenario! They'll LOVE IT!!!

[Professor Chaos]

Mwahahaha! Chaos!!!!

https://media.giphy.com/media/rfRUILO7sx9Be/giphy.gif

[walliver]

Samford got in last year after losing to ETSU in the last week, so anything could happen. But, unless the MVFC and CAA beat themselves bloody, only 1 or 2 7-4 SoCon teams would get in.

All I want is for Wofford to run the table and let everybody else figure it out.:)

[Terrier19]

Samford got in last year after losing to ETSU in the last week, so anything could happen. But, unless the MVFC and CAA beat themselves bloody, only 1 or 2 7-4 SoCon teams would get in.

All I want is for Wofford to run the table and let everybody else figure it out.:)

BINGO!!!

[Terrier19]

Let's just continue to stay above the chaos by continuing winning.....let the others deal with the mess...

[SU DOG]

Samford got in last year probably because the win at UCA was very significant. I don't think our Kennesaw State win this year will swing that much weight. All of these scenarios are possible, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I was in coaching for many years, although granted on the HS level, and I used to think I could watch teams and sorta tell which team was what. NOT this year with the SoCon. Really, I don't even know what my Bulldogs are made of just yet. The talent I do recognize, and it could mean we run the remaining(SoCon) table. We could also lose Saturday week and throw in the towel. If we are honest, those same statements can be said for 4 or 5 other SoCon teams. Although Wofford is in the best position right now, the old cliché "this race will go down to the wire" certainly comes to mind.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

only Wofford gets in

There, much more concise and more accurate.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Wofford has an 80%+ chance of making the playoffs this year. We'll be favored against Chatt, ETSU, VMI and probably are this week against the citadel. Samford will be a competitive game. We only need 2 wins to meet the 7 D1 win mark and since the playoffs have expanded to 20+ teams, an 8-3 Wofford team has not been left out. The infamous 2002 "Wofford team" was 9-3 with 8 D1 wins (maybe more?), but that was in a 16 team field. Absolutely no way we get left out at 8 wins now.

either way, I'm not concerned about Wofford not making the playoffs, and I think Western will make it as well as they too should be favored against VMI and ETSU. They then need to win 1 of 3 against Citadel, Mercer and Furman, and I think they are capable of winning at least 2 of those.

Samford is the real 8 ball because it's only been one year where they haven't finished 7-4/8-3 and they've already lost 2 this year with Wofford, Furman and Mercer still on the schedule.

Having said that, I think a 7-4 Mercer team should get in, as should a 7-4 Furman team.

[BisonTru]

Lots will depend on the bubble from around the country as well. Samford will be technically 6-4 against D1 competition and probably the easiest to leave out. Although 6 win teams do get in. It needs a damn good resume with it. 7-4 is no lock either. I will agree 8 wins should be lock for any SoCon team.

[PaladinFan]

I think Wofford has an 80%+ chance of making the playoffs this year. We'll be favored against Chatt, ETSU, VMI and probably are this week against the citadel. Samford will be a competitive game. We only need 2 wins to meet the 7 D1 win mark and since the playoffs have expanded to 20+ teams, an 8-3 Wofford team has not been left out. The infamous 2002 "Wofford team" was 9-3 with 8 D1 wins (maybe more?), but that was in a 16 team field. Absolutely no way we get left out at 8 wins now.

either way, I'm not concerned about Wofford not making the playoffs, and I think Western will make it as well as they too should be favored against VMI and ETSU. They then need to win 1 of 3 against Citadel, Mercer and Furman, and I think they are capable of winning at least 2 of those.

Samford is the real 8 ball because it's only been one year where they haven't finished 7-4/8-3 and they've already lost 2 this year with Wofford, Furman and Mercer still on the schedule.

Having said that, I think a 7-4 Mercer team should get in, as should a 7-4 Furman team.

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

[Schism55]

There are ZERO scenarios where SoCon gets 5 teams in, lol.
Stop it.

[SU DOG]

Lots will depend on the bubble from around the country as well. Samford will be technically 6-4 against D1 competition and probably the easiest to leave out. Although 6 win teams do get in. It needs a damn good resume with it. 7-4 is no lock either. I will agree 8 wins should be lock for any SoCon team.

I didn't follow your reasoning for the 6 D1 wins for Samford comment. We have 3 now with 5 games left, so any number from 3 to 8 is mathematically possible, or were you referring to some scenario previously posted?

[BisonTru]

I didn't follow your reasoning for the 6 D1 wins for Samford comment. We have 3 now with 5 games left, so any number from 3 to 8 is mathematically possible, or were you referring to some scenario previously posted?

Yes, the scenario in the OP.

[Terrier19]

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

IF Wofford finishes 9-2 with losses only to Samford and USC....no way they can finish in anything other than 2nd right?? And that could only be the case if Samford won all the way out, seeing that Wofford already has beaten the only other 1 loss SoCon team right?? Maybe I looked at that wrong....

[BearDownMU]

This all makes my head hurt. I'm just gonna hope my guys go 1-0 THIS WEEK.

Rinse. Repeat.

[Terrier19]

This all makes my head hurt. I'm just gonna hope my guys go 1-0 THIS WEEK.

Rinse. Repeat.

LMAOxlolx THIS!!!!!

[wcugrad95]

I don't think anybody with 3 conference losses will feel very good about their chances. Maybe that is more geared towards WCU and Mercer because we both have 2 FBS games, but neither of us can get past 6 (Mercer) or 7 (WCU) wins if we are 5-3 in conference without beating an SEC or ACC team at the end. My no-doubt playoff target for WCU is 8 wins, 6-2 in conference (or a win against UNC), or leave ourselves vulnerable to not make it. And the teams who realistically can get 6 conference wins have a whole bunch of games against each other. My bet is we get no more than 3 teams in. And I haven't done the math to figure out if we can get 4 to 6-2 in conference given the games against each other. We'll have a much better idea in 2 weeks given the schedule.

[wcugrad95]

IF Wofford finishes 9-2 with losses only to Samford and USC....no way they can finish in anything other than 2nd right?? And that could only be the case if Samford won all the way out, seeing that Wofford already has beaten the only other 1 loss SoCon team right?? Maybe I looked at that wrong....

If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play. That scenario would also give the other schools trying to get into position additional conference losses, and would mean 3 from the SoCon would probably be the max.

It is probably more realistic that we end up with a 7-1 champion, maybe a couple of 6-2 teams, and then a bunch of 4-4 and 5-3 teams. Then it will be interesting to see if more than 3 get in. Right now part of our problem is that the middle of the pack is a whole bunch of the league, and just about anybody can beat anybody on a given Saturday.

[PaladinFan]

If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play.

Right. That was the scenario in 2013. Furman/UTC/Samford all finished with identical conference records and went 1-1 against the other two teams tied for first.

Hypothetically, WCU/Samford/Wofford could finish with 1 conference loss and a 1-1 record against the other two.

The next tie breaker is record against the highest ranked team not involved in the tie breaker. In that event, there would be no resolution because all three teams would be undefeated against the rest of the conference.

I think it then goes to fewest points allowed among the tied teams. No way of knowing that yet, but Wofford would have a pretty good shot at that tie breaker unless WCU and Samford start throwing some shutouts.

[Reign of Terrier]

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.
That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

At 7-1 we would technically be tied for first, though we may not get the autobid for the playoffs. The difference in this team and the Chattanooga team is that we would have more Division one wins (9>8) and less FCS losses (3>1). We would also, in this hypothetical scenario, still be ranked in the top 20 (though we would drop from 5, presumably beating 3 teams straight wouldn't drop us out of the top 25) while Chattanooga barely finished in the top 25 at the end of that season. Further, we also made it to the playoffs last season, while in 2013 the Mocs had not been to the playoffs in recent memory. This year's team would also have wins over ranked WCU and likely ranked Furman, while Chattanooga that year only had a win over ranked Furman and a 5-6 Wofford team that was 5-3 and finished 5-6

In a hypothetical scenario in which Wofford loses to Samford and gets left out of the playoffs, both losses by Wofford would be by definition quality losses. I don't see how any of three hypothetical 9-2 teams in the Socon gets left out.


There are ZERO scenarios where SoCon gets 5 teams in, lol.
Stop it.
There are scenarios and I've named them. Whether or not it's likely or not is another question. I don't think it's likely. I think we max out at 4, but most likely 3. It's probably equally likely that we get 5 as we get just one.

[Terrier19]

If Samford and WCU win-out, they along with Wofford in your scenario would be 7-1 in conference. So a 3-way tie, and tiebreakers outside of head-to-head come into play. That scenario would also give the other schools trying to get into position additional conference losses, and would mean 3 from the SoCon would probably be the max.

It is probably more realistic that we end up with a 7-1 champion, maybe a couple of 6-2 teams, and then a bunch of 4-4 and 5-3 teams. Then it will be interesting to see if more than 3 get in. Right now part of our problem is that the middle of the pack is a whole bunch of the league, and just about anybody can beat anybody on a given Saturday.

Got ya......in the instance that this happens and only 3 teams make it....that would be 3 strong teams in the playoffs......

[Reign of Terrier]

Right. That was the scenario in 2013. Furman/UTC/Samford all finished with identical conference records and went 1-1 against the other two teams tied for first.

Hypothetically, WCU/Samford/Wofford could finish with 1 conference loss and a 1-1 record against the other two.

The next tie breaker is record against the highest ranked team not involved in the tie breaker. In that event, there would be no resolution because all three teams would be undefeated against the rest of the conference.

I think it then goes to fewest points allowed among the tied teams. No way of knowing that yet, but Wofford would have a pretty good shot at that tie breaker unless WCU and Samford start throwing some shutouts.

I think this is a key point. In a hypothetical scenario in which Wofford beats Citadel and loses to Samford, the above fact would be known by Wofford immediately after the Samford game. Wofford may already have the inside advantage of these teams given our style of play, but we also get the benefit of playing the three worst offensive teams in the conference after playing Samford. There would be a lot of regression to the mean, especially with Wofford knowing that's what it would need for the autobid.

[wcugrad95]

Got ya......in the instance that this happens and only 3 teams make it....that would be 3 strong teams in the playoffs......

Yes - if we had 3 teams playing well enough to finish 7-1 in this league, that would mean those are 3 very good teams. All 3 would have 9 wins. That all sounds great, but I think there are 6 other teams that want to have a say about it.

[WestCoastAggie]

What's a better value: 5-3 in the MVFC, 5-3 in the CAA, or 5-3 in the SoCon?

[wcugrad95]

For playoff invitations, I don't think there is any doubt that SoCon would be 3rd in that list. The other conferences have more and higher ranked teams. Rankings aren't always totally right or objective and you can argue them, but they matter and they would factor big time with this scenario.

[Toby]

Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

[Terrier19]

Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

Wofford fans have been the same as always.....Next opponent up....Pick Citadel at your own risk.....

[Reign of Terrier]

What's a better value: 5-3 in the MVFC, 5-3 in the CAA, or 5-3 in the SoCon?

I'm a Socon guy, but you'd be crazy to not say the MVFC at first glance.

5-3 in the CAA/Socon is about the same though

- - - Updated - - -


Wofford fans are getting excited. Hmmm maybe Citadel is not a bad pick.

What's great about being a not-player is that your attitude has no impact on the outcome of the game.

[longtimemocfan]

As I noted in the other thread, Wofford could finish 9-2, lose to Samford and USC, and finish 3rd in the SoCon.

That 2013 season is a cautionary tale about handling your business while you have the opportunity to. UTC shared the SoCon title and was left home.

It would’ve been nice to say we got into the playoffs 4 straight years. The committee had to chose either us or Samford in which they did the right thing by choosing them since they beat us. In all honesty if we had gotten in you probably would’ve seen the same result in what happened to Samford. We were a very beat up team with a gimpy QB.

[soconjohn5]

Explain to me again how Colgate is still getting 9 votes to Furman's 3 votes in the STATS Poll????? Colgate is 2-4 with a loss to formerly 0-5 Lehigh and a blitzing of 45-14 at Andy Kerr Stadium by Furman...Thanks, but this damn poll and feeling towards the SoCon is biased.

[citdog]

Explain to me again how Colgate is still getting 9 votes to Furman's 3 votes in the STATS Poll????? Colgate is 2-4 with a loss to formerly 0-5 Lehigh and a blitzing of 45-14 at Andy Kerr Stadium by Furman...Thanks, but this damn poll and feeling towards the SoCon is biased.

furman sucks

[cx500d]

furman sucks


Yep, thats probably why

[soconjohn5]

Citdog...You're right except you trail in every revenue sports series to Furman so that would pretty much be a non-sequitir argument.

[woffordgrad94]

While I know conference pride is a thing, I personally only worry about Wofford making it to the playoffs...Samford, WCU, Furman, Mercer, etc. are on their own. I mean if Wofford is the only SoCon team in the playoffs and they go on to win the title, it counts just as much as if there were 5 SoCon teams there.

[soconjohn5]

If Wofford were really the only team to make it from the SoCon, it would be like 2003.

[citdog]

Citdog...You're right except you trail in every revenue sports series to Furman so that would pretty much be a non-sequitir argument.

you spelled vermin wrong

[soconjohn5]

You are correct Citdog...All in good fun...Love the rivalries in the SoCon...I don't think any other conferences can compare! And like Chattanooga fans, I still hate Marshall but I would also add Georgia Southern to that list.

[kalm]

Looking at the Socon right now, I think we're going to get 2 teams in the playoffs for sure, with 3 being the most likely number. There is one possible scenario in which 5 get in, here it is.

Wofford (currently 5-0) wins (at least) 3 of the next 5, finishing 8-3 or 9-2 (outcome against Citadel is irrelevant.

Western Carolina loses to both Furman and Mercer and finishes 7-4

Samford loses to Mercer and Furman, finishes 7-4 but beats Wofford

Furman wins out, but loses to Mercer, finishes 7-4.

Mercer wins out, finishes 7-4.

Some may look at this and say that only Wofford gets in. They would also point out that Samford wouldn't/shouldn't qualify, noting having 7 D1 wins. But they did last year. Samford could have a quality win at Wofford

Furman could have quality losses to Wofford, Elon, NC State and Mercer but quality wins against Western and Samford

Mercer would have a quality win at Furman and Samford, and a quality loss to Wofford, Auburn and an understandable loss to Alabama.

And finally Western would have numerous quality losses and a quality win against Samford.

Now, will this happen? No idea? does it harm the concept of quality wins or losses with this sort of inconsistency? Yes

But all of this is possible, as is the socon playoff race

Quality wins and losses are tough to quantify when you don't step out of your regional footprint. OOC, what's the best SoCon win so far this year? Kennesaw?

If the conference beats itself up leaving several 7-4 teams is it down or competitive with a number of decent teams?

Not smack, as several conferences have this conundrum.

[woffordgrad94]

This Terrier will always have a place in his doghouse for GSU...after the crap their fans pulled in several games (such as throwing stuff at our players and coaches) and especially that time at Wofford in the playoffs they acted like idiots. I’m tickled to death to see how they are losing this year. May they forever be mired in the lower depths of FBS! I wasn’t always fond of App State fans, but many of them were mostly talking in good fun and as a whole they looked like choirboys in comparison to GSU!

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Here's how I see it:
Auto-bid
Wofford: beat The Citadel and Samford and they become the presumptive SoCon champs
Western Carolina/Furman: needs to win out and hope Wofford loses two conference games and the winner of the WCU/Furman game lose one conference game outside of WCU/Furman
Samford: needs to win out and hope Western Carolina loses one conference game
Mercer: needs to win out and hopes Wofford loses two conference games and ETSU loses one conference game
The Citadel: needs to win out and hopes Mercer and Samford loses two conference games
ETSU: need to win out and hopes Furman loses two conference games and The Citadel loses one conference game
Chattanooga: needs to win out and hopes Western Carolina and Furman loses twice
VMI: stick a fork in 'em, they're done

[BisonTru]

I'm a Socon guy, but you'd be crazy to not say the MVFC at first glance.

5-3 in the CAA/Socon is about the same though



I think you're being a bit homerish. I appreciate you recognizing the MVFC, but the CAA is a tougher conference than the SoCon. I was one of the few non-SoCon supporters that was higher on the SoCon last year than the consensus, but I think you're still clearly behind the CAA/MVFC.

My Rankings:
1. MVFC
2. CAA

3. SoCon
4. Big Sky

5. Southland
6. OVC

[WestCoastAggie]

I think you're being a bit homerish. I appreciate you recognizing the MVFC, but the CAA is a tougher conference than the SoCon. I was one of the few non-SoCon supporters that was higher on the SoCon last year than the consensus, but I think you're still clearly behind the CAA/MVFC.

My Rankings:
1. MVFC
2. CAA

3. SoCon
4. Big Sky

5. Southland
6. OVC

If we go with this ranking, one would assume those that go 5-3 in the SoCon should have a good shot at an At-Large spot, right?

[Milktruck74]

While the Mocs are awful....they will catch somebody in the next few games. They have a ton of talent and may be able to overcome their coaching scheme and beat someone they shouldn't. They won't be there, but I think the Mocs will have a bearing on how the playoff picture shakes out for the SoCon.

[walliver]

I don't think any team in any conference with 3 conference losses belongs in the playoffs. Unfortunately, in a 24 team field you either have the choice of a 5-3 conference team or an at-large from a noncompetitive conference.

It sounds a lot like South Carolina's high school league policy from the 90's. The largest 16 high schools based on enrollment participated in the AAAA division 1 playoff. Frequently, teams with 1-10 records would be playing.

[Smitty]

While the Mocs are awful....they will catch somebody in the next few games. They have a ton of talent and may be able to overcome their coaching scheme and beat someone they shouldn't. They won't be there, but I think the Mocs will have a bearing on how the playoff picture shakes out for the SoCon.

I mean I guess you still have ETSU left on the schedule...

[Reign of Terrier]

Quality wins and losses are tough to quantify when you don't step out of your regional footprint. OOC, what's the best SoCon win so far this year? Kennesaw?

If the conference beats itself up leaving several 7-4 teams is it down or competitive with a number of decent teams?

Not smack, as several conferences have this conundrum.

Yeah, I have no idea to be honest.

Arguably, the reason we think the MVFC is so good is the transitive property. When they play FBS schools, a lot of time they are non-power 5. Then every year they have one or two, sometimes three REALLY REALLY good teams, with everyone else playing each other tough. When they get to the playoffs they either lose to one of their own, beat a lesser conference autobid, or lose to a quality autobid, so we assume that the conference is really good (and it's not a bad assumption).

With the CAA it's a similar story except I think they play more P5 teams and in OOC play a lot of Patriot and Pioneer.

With the Socon, we often play ACC/SEC teams for our FBS and Big South teams as our OOC.

My point for all this is that everyone plays a somewhat regionalized OOC. The difference between the MVFC and the Socon and the CAA is that the MVFC has put together more championship runs (on the back of NDSU, mostly). I think it's safe to say that there's a strong correlation between conference success in the playoffs and the perception of that one conference's superior strength.

For instance, the CAA used to be WAY more competitive on the national scene. Before NDSU's titles and before App State's titles, they won and competed for so many national titles. And it wasn't just one team that did it.

So, for my original scenario, I don't think it's likely that we will get 5 teams in and I think if we had a few 7-4 teams alongside a single 9-2 team, there would be serious questions of whether or not they were quality.

But I think the difference with looking at the Socon that way and the MVFC or CAA is just perception of the overall strength of the field. Had Wofford made a run to the semis or finals last year, the Socon may be re-evaluated right now.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think you're being a bit homerish. I appreciate you recognizing the MVFC, but the CAA is a tougher conference than the SoCon. I was one of the few non-SoCon supporters that was higher on the SoCon last year than the consensus, but I think you're still clearly behind the CAA/MVFC.

My Rankings:
1. MVFC
2. CAA

3. SoCon
4. Big Sky

5. Southland
6. OVC

Would Richmond or Maine beat Samford last year? I'm not sure, it would be close

One difference in the conference that jumps off the page is that because the CAA has more teams, they have more good teams...and more bad teams.

Does that make the average CAA team better than the average Socon team? I'd say it's in the margin of error either which way.

The MVFC is definitely better than everyone, but I think the CAA is perceived as better than the Socon because they have a bigger sample size of good/bad teams and the good teams are memorable.

Having said that, my bold prediction/hot take this year is that the CAA will have a down year relative to the last few in terms of teams' overall W/L

[wcugrad95]

If we go with this ranking, one would assume those that go 5-3 in the SoCon should have a good shot at an At-Large spot, right?

Depends on how many the top-2 get. If you look at several projections now, those 2 conferences are showing 11 or 12 teams into the 24-team field. Given there would be 8 other auto-qualifiers (I think), that only leaves 4 or 5 at-large bids outside of those 2 conferences. That is why I have said if you are a SoCon team, you really want to get to 6-2 to feel a whole lot more comfortable. And in all of this scenario, if the SoCon were to get 3 in, now there are only a couple of non-AQ, non MVFC/CAA/SoCon teams in the entire field.

But this isn't supposed to be "fair" to all the conferences. They have tried to do that with the AQ for 10 leagues (regardless if all 10 have a playoff-worthy team or not). The goal is to get the best 14 teams in the competition on top of the 10 AQs. Most likely it all works itself out, and the top conferences will have some surprises and some upsets and will beat each other up and there are fewer 5-3 teams and more 4-4. Two weeks from now we will have some answers in the SoCon, but still questions with games between WCU, Furman, Mercer, etc. still to come.

[kalm]

Depends on how many the top-2 get. If you look at several projections now, those 2 conferences are showing 11 or 12 teams into the 24-team field. Given there would be 8 other auto-qualifiers (I think), that only leaves 4 or 5 at-large bids outside of those 2 conferences. That is why I have said if you are a SoCon team, you really want to get to 6-2 to feel a whole lot more comfortable. And in all of this scenario, if the SoCon were to get 3 in, now there are only a couple of non-AQ, non MVFC/CAA/SoCon teams in the entire field.

But this isn't supposed to be "fair" to all the conferences. They have tried to do that with the AQ for 10 leagues (regardless if all 10 have a playoff-worthy team or not). The goal is to get the best 14 teams in the competition on top of the 10 AQs. Most likely it all works itself out, and the top conferences will have some surprises and some upsets and will beat each other up and there are fewer 5-3 teams and more 4-4. Two weeks from now we will have some answers in the SoCon, but still questions with games between WCU, Furman, Mercer, etc. still to come.

Yep. It should boil down to resumes rather than conferences and that's why I mention OOC and quality wins. But Albany was a real head scratcher last year with an FBS win and win over UNH who got the nod despite both finishing 7-4.

7-4 SoCon's without a solid OOC should be in trouble but based on the 2016 Albany, maybe not.

[soconjohn5]

So Furman lost to one of the best teams in the CAA--Elon--by three points....Furman would destroy Towson and Rhode Island...Could probably beat Delaware and William & Mary and it would be a toss-up with Richmond...The only losses I could say for sure might be Nova and JMU.

[wcugrad95]

So Furman lost to one of the best teams in the CAA--Elon--by three points....Furman would destroy Towson and Rhode Island...Could probably beat Delaware and William & Mary and it would be a toss-up with Richmond...The only losses I could say for sure might be Nova and JMU.

I am not trying to knock the SoCon (particularly as a backer of a SoCon school), but doesn't this post actually say that Furman would be no better than a 5-3 and possibly 4-4 with a tossup game with Richmond in the CAA? I kind of agree with that thinking, and what it probably means is that the leagues are very close to one another and 5-3 in one is not that different than 5-3 in the other. The CAA is bumped up because their top-2 are considered better than the SoCon top-2. Looking at it this way, I probably wouldn't feel real comfortable in either league if you are 5-3 in conference games. Assuming things hold, it will come down to the top-2 from each getting in, and then if there are several 5-3'ish teams from each, name recognition and ranking will probably sway people.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Read through the whole thread, "only Wofford gets in" still seems to work best

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd say Wofford and Western in is the sure thing.

[wcugrad95]

I'd say Wofford and Western in is the sure thing.

I obviously like what you think of WCU, but we still have games against Furman, Citadel, and Mercer. Based on what I have already said is needed, that means at minimum 2-1 in those 3 games. Right now, I just hope Western is focused on beating ETSU this week and VMI next week to make that tough "down the stretch" set of games be as meaningful as everybody thinks they will be. Two weeks from now we could easily be looking at 3 teams with only 1 league loss, or we could be looking at a bunch of us with 2 losses, or we could be looking at Wofford basically having the conference championship in hand. Basically the "every week is a playoff" seems to be more true after about the 1/2 way point each season for many teams in the top 3 or 4 FCS leagues.

[Reign of Terrier]

Perhaps my confidence is showing, but I think we're gonna see Citadel fall of the rails in the coming weeks (I would say more, but I don't want to come off as being overconfident in Wofford's game this week; long story short, regardless of the outcome this weekend there are some trends that should alarm the Citadel in terms of their offensive efficiency). I also don't think Mercer will be able to hang with all three of Samford, Western or Furman when they hit full stride.

[soconjohn5]

I don't necessarily disagree, WCUGrad95...I don't dispute the MVFC is the best football conference in FCS...I have a problem with CAA bias....They aren't that much if at all better than the SoCon...Just have more teams....Let's be honest.

[youcanbankit]

Your about to take a really fun rafting trip......lol


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsC4kf6x_Q0
I'd say Wofford and Western in is the sure thing.

[ElCid]

Perhaps my confidence is showing, but I think we're gonna see Citadel fall of the rails in the coming weeks (I would say more, but I don't want to come off as being overconfident in Wofford's game this week; long story short, regardless of the outcome this weekend there are some trends that should alarm the Citadel in terms of their offensive efficiency). I also don't think Mercer will be able to hang with all three of Samford, Western or Furman when they hit full stride.

Old news. Been decreasing since game one as competition level increased. Obviously the experience level/skill increase has not kept track with the competition. 3 freshmen and 1 soph on the OL and zero experience at BBack will do that. Not to mention our WRs (aka blockers). We did lose, like 13 starters. Eh. Season ain't over yet.

[kalm]

I don't necessarily disagree, WCUGrad95...I don't dispute the MVFC is the best football conference in FCS...I have a problem with CAA bias....They aren't that much if at all better than the SoCon...Just have more teams....Let's be honest.

Agreed.

[PaladinFan]

Perhaps my confidence is showing, but I think we're gonna see Citadel fall of the rails in the coming weeks (I would say more, but I don't want to come off as being overconfident in Wofford's game this week; long story short, regardless of the outcome this weekend there are some trends that should alarm the Citadel in terms of their offensive efficiency). I also don't think Mercer will be able to hang with all three of Samford, Western or Furman when they hit full stride.

If everyone is playing full tilt, Wofford and WCU are the two most complete teams.

I still don't trust Samford. Right now Furman is outpacing Samford offensively (did not think I would be saying that) and is better defensively than the Bulldogs.

Outside of Wofford, I think Mercer has the most talented defense in the SoCon. After this week, though, the Bears will have to face the three best offenses in the conference, all on the road. All three run a different look. That isn't going to be easy.

[Reign of Terrier]

If everyone is playing full tilt, Wofford and WCU are the two most complete teams.

I still don't trust Samford. Right now Furman is outpacing Samford offensively (did not think I would be saying that) and is better defensively than the Bulldogs.

Outside of Wofford, I think Mercer has the most talented defense in the SoCon. After this week, though, the Bears will have to face the three best offenses in the conference, all on the road. All three run a different look. That isn't going to be easy.

Conversely, over the next two weeks Wofford plays Citadel and Samford, and then has to play the three worst offenses.

the term "regression to the mean" may be applicable

[Catamount87]

If everyone is playing full tilt, Wofford and WCU are the two most complete teams.

I still don't trust Samford. Right now Furman is outpacing Samford offensively (did not think I would be saying that) and is better defensively than the Bulldogs.

Outside of Wofford, I think Mercer has the most talented defense in the SoCon. After this week, though, the Bears will have to face the three best offenses in the conference, all on the road. All three run a different look. That isn't going to be easy.

I think you're underselling your Paladins a little. Y'all could easily be 5-1 rather than 3-3. Those four points represent the team still in the "gelling" stage and learning to win again. Those tough, close losses will be important later in the season. Y'all can poor mouth it all you want but you also have plenty of talent to be a very good and fairly complete team.

I said it in preseason and I'll say it now, Furman is the most dangerous team in the SoCon because they have coaching to lead the talent.

[kalm]

If everyone is playing full tilt, Wofford and WCU are the two most complete teams.

I still don't trust Samford. Right now Furman is outpacing Samford offensively (did not think I would be saying that) and is better defensively than the Bulldogs.

Outside of Wofford, I think Mercer has the most talented defense in the SoCon. After this week, though, the Bears will have to face the three best offenses in the conference, all on the road. All three run a different look. That isn't going to be easy.

Furman, WCU, and Samford are ranked 6th, 7th, and 8th in the conference in total D giving up around 400 yards each per game.

WCU and Samford are 8th and 9th against the run.

The three are 6th, 7th, and 8th against the pass.

None of the three are complete yet if you look at defensive numbers (stats can lie and schedules matter). However with high powered offenses, opponents 3rd down conversion % and red zone defense are crucial and all three are at least decent in those categories.

[PaladinFan]

Furman, WCU, and Samford are ranked 6th, 7th, and 8th in the conference in total D giving up around 400 yards each per game.

WCU and Samford are 8th and 9th against the run.

The three are 6th, 7th, and 8th against the pass.

None of the three are complete yet if you look at defensive numbers (stats can lie and schedules matter). However with high powered offenses, opponents 3rd down conversion % and red zone defense are crucial and all three are at least decent in those categories.

Furman's a little peculiar.

By no stretch are the Paladins an overwhelming defense. They do, however, stop the run. The last three opponents have rushed for 95 yards on 82 carries (1.1 ypc). Furman is also, I think, ranked 3rd in the FCS with 20 sacks. So, they have pretty much been able to make their opponents one dimensional.

They do give up their passing yards, but some of that is by design. On a third and long, you will often see 7 or 8 Paladin defenders standing on or behind the first down marker. They will give the opponent whatever pass they want underneath, but not the first down.

For example, this play against ETSU. It is a 3rd and 10, which is not exactly "prevent" defense time, but Furman has 7 defenders, including both cornerbacks and all but one linebacker with their feet on the first down line. The two safeties are deep. Furman shows four, but only rushes two with the NG and remaining LB playing the screen.

This ended up as a sack, but you can see some of the philosophy. You want to dump the ball off and pad the passing stats, they are more than happy to do that. You have to get through a wall to get the first down, though. Truthfully, the last few weeks, teams have struggled to figure out what to do with that defensive look. Offense makes a call, but very few of the defenders are lined up where you expect them to be.

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/914202890541047808

[Terrier19]

I think you're underselling your Paladins a little. Y'all could easily be 5-1 rather than 3-3. Those four points represent the team still in the "gelling" stage and learning to win again. Those tough, close losses will be important later in the season. Y'all can poor mouth it all you want but you also have plenty of talent to be a very good and fairly complete team.

I said it in preseason and I'll say it now, Furman is the most dangerous team in the SoCon because they have coaching to lead the talent.

Furman is a very tough football team....and I do not want to discredit them by any means....But Wofford is the most dangerous team in the SoCon.......And has had the coaching to go with the talent.......Also, I think you may be underselling your explosive Catamounts....Very dangerous team.......I think the SoCon is much better than being advertised......Wofford, WCU, Furman, Samford are all dynamic in their own rights...Citadel has slumped as of late but is also extremely difficult....And Chatt has been perplexing to date but has an abundance of talent........

[PaladinFan]

Furman is a very tough football team....and I do not want to discredit them by any means....But Wofford is the most dangerous team in the SoCon.......And has had the coaching to go with the talent.......Also, I think you may be underselling your explosive Catamounts....Very dangerous team.......I think the SoCon is much better than being advertised......Wofford, WCU, Furman, Samford are all dynamic in their own rights...Citadel has slumped as of late but is also extremely difficult....And Chatt has been perplexing to date but has an abundance of talent........

If both teams carry on as they have been, the Terriers and Paladins may find themselves with a post season date.

[Terrier19]

If both teams carry on as they have been, the Terriers and Paladins may find themselves with a post season date.

I'd love it.....Post season play isnt always a guarantee....And I am willing to play anyone at that point......So if that scenario plays out, I would say that we would both be happy at the possibility to advance in the playoffs....

[Reign of Terrier]

As I've harped on in other threads, yardage per game isn't always the best indicator for how good a defense is. If you're a high-power offense and an average defense, and you hold the ball for 15 possessions and score on half of them, but your defense holds the other team to 20% scoring efficiency, you could be winning games 41 to 21 and all the yardage 21 ppg implies.

The stat game isn't the full story if you're Furman. Furman has been putting teams in deep holes (ETSU, Colgate, and Chatt) and giving up yards late while basically in prevent. There's a strategy behind that as it burns more clock.

If Furman loses any game here on out, it's because they get outscored due to having a young and injured defense. Their defense hasn't performed stupendously on the stat sheet and they have played relatively weak/inefficient offenses in terms of conference rankings.

The same goes for Western, but with Samford, there's still a lot to be seen. Their offense isn't particularly efficient this year relative to last, and they aren't playing terrible defense either.

[kalm]

As I've harped on in other threads, yardage per game isn't always the best indicator for how good a defense is. If you're a high-power offense and an average defense, and you hold the ball for 15 possessions and score on half of them, but your defense holds the other team to 20% scoring efficiency, you could be winning games 41 to 21 and all the yardage 21 ppg implies.

The stat game isn't the full story if you're Furman. Furman has been putting teams in deep holes (ETSU, Colgate, and Chatt) and giving up yards late while basically in prevent. There's a strategy behind that as it burns more clock.

If Furman loses any game here on out, it's because they get outscored due to having a young and injured defense. Their defense hasn't performed stupendously on the stat sheet and they have played relatively weak/inefficient offenses in terms of conference rankings.

The same goes for Western, but with Samford, there's still a lot to be seen. Their offense isn't particularly efficient this year relative to last, and they aren't playing terrible defense either.

True. Give the opposing offense 90+ snaps and it's going to be difficult to have good numbers on D.

[PaladinFan]

As I've harped on in other threads, yardage per game isn't always the best indicator for how good a defense is. If you're a high-power offense and an average defense, and you hold the ball for 15 possessions and score on half of them, but your defense holds the other team to 20% scoring efficiency, you could be winning games 41 to 21 and all the yardage 21 ppg implies.

The stat game isn't the full story if you're Furman. Furman has been putting teams in deep holes (ETSU, Colgate, and Chatt) and giving up yards late while basically in prevent. There's a strategy behind that as it burns more clock.

If Furman loses any game here on out, it's because they get outscored due to having a young and injured defense. Their defense hasn't performed stupendously on the stat sheet and they have played relatively weak/inefficient offenses in terms of conference rankings.

The same goes for Western, but with Samford, there's still a lot to be seen. Their offense isn't particularly efficient this year relative to last, and they aren't playing terrible defense either.

Right. It has long been my position that the goal of the defense is to keep the other team from scoring, not keep the other team from gaining yards. I personally don't care how many yards you gain so long as the team isn't putting the ball in the endzone.

Furman's defense is not a steel curtain, but is a nice compliment to the offense. They play well with a lead, force teams to become one dimensional, rush the passer extremely well, tackle well, and have started to make plays on the ball. With the offense playing like it is, a couple of more possessions each game by way of turnover can help tremendously.

They are young, but each week you are starting to see new guys rotate in there as the coaching staff gets more comfortable with them. Coach Hendrix often talks about "developing" depth, which is something that Furman struggled to do under Bruce Fowler.

[SU DOG]

If everyone is playing full tilt, Wofford and WCU are the two most complete teams.

I still don't trust Samford. Right now Furman is outpacing Samford offensively (did not think I would be saying that) and is better defensively than the Bulldogs.

Outside of Wofford, I think Mercer has the most talented defense in the SoCon. After this week, though, the Bears will have to face the three best offenses in the conference, all on the road. All three run a different look. That isn't going to be easy.

OK, everyone has their right to their opinion. My opinion is that the Samford defense is WAY underrated, regardless of the stats one might quote. This group has good players, seems to be gelling, and won't be a pushover for any SoCon team. Losing 2 of our 3 top WRs from last year, and working in some new guys has not resulted in instant success, but they are getting better, and recently we have even shown some running capability. I don't know how things will work out, but like most every other fan, I still have high hopes for my team this season. BTW, Mercer does not play all 3 of those games on the road. I sure wish they did.

[Reign of Terrier]

My evaluation of Samford thus far is that their defense is good and their offense isn't as good as last year. Of course, I'm only going by standards of efficiency here.

They've played a couple teams that were meh in terms of their efficiency this season (VMI, Citadel) but also didn't play too well against West Georgia or Kennesaw. They've also played teams that are really efficient this season (UGA and Western) and didn't quite play well enough on the latter to win.

In more ways than one I think Samford v. Wofford next week is going to be the game of the year in so far that it will tell us what we need to know about both teams, put aside the conference repercussions.

[SU DOG]

+1

[PaladinFan]

OK, everyone has their right to their opinion. My opinion is that the Samford defense is WAY underrated, regardless of the stats one might quote. This group has good players, seems to be gelling, and won't be a pushover for any SoCon team. Losing 2 of our 3 top WRs from last year, and working in some new guys has not resulted in instant success, but they are getting better, and recently we have even shown some running capability. I don't know how things will work out, but like most every other fan, I still have high hopes for my team this season. BTW, Mercer does not play all 3 of those games on the road. I sure wish they did.

You're right, I overlooked that Mercer plays Samford at home.

I am not trying to undersell Samford. Samford under Hatcher has a bit of a history of looking superb at times, looking terrible at times, and fading down the stretch. I am sort of at a point where I will assume that trend continues until they show me it won't.

There is no question that Samford is no pushover. The running game is showing life, but like with most performances of SoCon teams to this point, though I am not sure how stellar VMI and Citadel are on defense.

There are some pretty evenly matched teams in this conference right now.

[PaladinFan]

My evaluation of Samford thus far is that their defense is good and their offense isn't as good as last year. Of course, I'm only going by standards of efficiency here.

They've played a couple teams that were meh in terms of their efficiency this season (VMI, Citadel) but also didn't play too well against West Georgia or Kennesaw. They've also played teams that are really efficient this season (UGA and Western) and didn't quite play well enough on the latter to win.

In more ways than one I think Samford v. Wofford next week is going to be the game of the year in so far that it will tell us what we need to know about both teams, put aside the conference repercussions.

A lot of what we think about the SoCon is based upon everyone's perception of the Citadel. The Bulldogs have had a couple wins over bland competition, struggled against a mediocre ETSU team, and was pretty well handled by Mercer and Samford.

If the Citadel struggles this week against Wofford, I am well prepared to put them on the "overrated" pile.

[Reign of Terrier]

My assessment on the Citadel based upon various outcomes of the game this weekend:

Scenario 1: They get blown out (more than 2 scores): They are overrated and likely have big question marks on both side of the ball. No way Wofford beats them by that much without some turnovers and if that's the case the Citadel has both an efficiency and turnover problem.

Scenario 2: Citadel loses, but in a respectable yet frustrating way (1-2 scores). As opposed to the above scenario, I think it only takes the citadel to have one of A) turnovers and B) lacking offensive efficiency to have this outcome

Scenario 3: Citadel wins/loses by a close margin. If you're a Citadel fan, I think this is the most likely good scenario. If this happens, chances are it's a low scoring game and it tells us that the Citadel's defense doesn't have many systemic flaws or at the very least the advantages of the TO are neutralized when Wofford and the Citadel play each other. To keep this game close, they have to either limit Wofford's efficiency or win the turnover battle.

Scenario 4: Citadel wins by a blow out. To get to this point, the Citadel would have to be efficient with its offense, win the turnover battle and limit Wofford's offensive efficiency. Anything could happen, but *given what we've seen so far out of the Citadel and Wofford* I don't see all three of those happening as likely. Wofford's defense will be as good as any Citadel has faced this year, and that will at the least limit the citadel's efficiency on offense.

I think Wofford should win in the 24-10 area (so something like scenario 2). I think scenario 3 is equal likely to scenario 1, but I think scenario 4 is the least likely.

[citdog]

A lot of what we think about the SoCon is based upon everyone's perception of the Citadel. The Bulldogs have had a couple wins over bland competition, struggled against a mediocre ETSU team, and was pretty well handled by Mercer and Samford.

If the Citadel struggles this week against Wofford, I am well prepared to put them on the "overrated" pile.

I placed y'all on top of the "SUCKS" pile long ago.

[CID1990]

We ARE overrated this year. I pointed this out in the offseason. Nobody loses the players we lost without suffering on the field. We have some real studs coming up through the ranks but it isn’t going to happen for us this season.

[Terrier19]

We ARE overrated this year. I pointed this out in the offseason. Nobody loses the players we lost without suffering on the field. We have some real studs coming up through the ranks but it isn’t going to happen for us this season.

You guys did lose a ton of players....tough for any program to lose that. Also indicative of the success you guys have had over the last few seasons to have that special group.

[youcanbankit]

Looking at the Socon right now, I think we're going to get 2 teams in the playoffs for sure, with 3 being the most likely number. There is one possible scenario in which 5 get in, here it is.

Wofford (currently 5-0) wins (at least) 3 of the next 5, finishing 8-3 or 9-2 (outcome against Citadel is irrelevant.

Western Carolina loses to both Furman and Mercer and finishes 7-4

Samford loses to Mercer and Furman, finishes 7-4 but beats Wofford

Furman wins out, but loses to Mercer, finishes 7-4.

Mercer wins out, finishes 7-4.

Some may look at this and say that only Wofford gets in. They would also point out that Samford wouldn't/shouldn't qualify, noting having 7 D1 wins. But they did last year. Samford could have a quality win at Wofford

Furman could have quality losses to Wofford, Elon, NC State and Mercer but quality wins against Western and Samford

Mercer would have a quality win at Furman and Samford, and a quality loss to Wofford, Auburn and an understandable loss to Alabama.

And finally Western would have numerous quality losses and a quality win against Samford.

Now, will this happen? No idea? does it harm the concept of quality wins or losses with this sort of inconsistency? Yes

But all of this is possible, as is the socon playoff race

Our picks for the second half in the SOCON.....


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26309&stc=1

[Terrier19]

Our picks for the second half in the SOCON.....


http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26309&stc=1

NAH!!!

[wcugrad95]

So it is unlikely, but if the SoCon ends up in a 3-way tie for 1st place with three 7-1 teams, my understanding is the tie-breaker that would ultimately decide the AQ is points allowed. But is that points allowed in the games between the 3 teams, or in conference games, or all games? I would expect one of the first 2 since teams don't always play the same amount of games and some teams play more than one FBS opponent (WCU plays 12 this year including 2 FBS teams).

[Reign of Terrier]

I think they would look to conference competition for that particular number. Right now the Socon race looks like this:
Wofford 4-0 (6 D1 wins)
Western Carolina 3-1 (5 D1 wins)
Furman 3-1 (4 D1 wins)
Mercer 3-2 (4 D1 wins)
Samford 2-1 (3 D1 wins)
Citadel 1-3 (2 D1 wins)
ETSU 1-3 (2 D1 wins)
Chattanooga 1-3 (1 D1 win)
VMI 0-4 () wins

VMI is mathematically eliminated from winning the Socon. there's a scenario for Citadel, Chattanooga and ETSU to win a share of the title, but it's unlikely. The only way those team make the playoffs is through a bat**** crazy scenario of chaos which is unlikely to impossible. The Citadel likely won't finish better than 6-5, keeping themselves out of the playoffs

Of the remaining teams, the third place team will have no fewer than 2 losses as two matchups from the three one-loss teams (Samford, Furman, Western) haven't played (Samford v. Furman, Western v. samford). So it's possible there could be a second place team or tied-for first place team with one loss, but the only team that could get it without Wofford losing in an upset to UTC, VMI or ETSU is Samford. They would get the autobid.

Going up the list, Mercer can't afford to lose another game, which will be hard as they still have Furman, Western and Samford as well as Alabama. If they don't win out in FCS, they'll finish 6-5 or worse, which is possible for an FCS berth, but unlikely.

Samford has a lot of football to play, and I'm not comfortable making a prediction about them until after this Saturday, because there really isn't a consistent product.

Western Carolina only needs two more wins to get to the 7 D1 win threshold. They'll presumable get one of them against VMI, and I presume they'll get at least one against Furman, the Citadel or Mercer. At least one.

Furman is sitting pretty as well, but not as pretty as Western, as Furman still has Mercer, Western, the citadel and Samford. All of them are tough, and the Dins offense is good, but I'm not sure if they can beat 3 of those 4 yet.

Wofford is the closest thing to a lock right now as there can be. They just need one win in the next month to get the minimum D1 wins. I would surprised if they finished worse than 9-2.

So, I think the socon will get at bear minimum two playoff teams. I think we'll get at least 3 (Wofford, Western, Samford/Mercer/Furman) Samford running the table would probably be the worst thing for the league in terms of playoff teams as they would likely eliminate Mercer and maybe Furman. worst case scenario is that all mentioned except Wofford brutalize each other and we only have 2 eligble for the playoffs.

[wcugrad95]

So I am not sure I saw the answer in your post. If we somehow had the three-way tie at the top at 7-1 (this is for any year), I ***think*** you said they would go to conference competition. I know this can and will change, but right now if that was the case and we all were at 7-1, Samford would be the AQ with 19.7 PPG in conference compared to WCU's 21.5 and Wofford's 23.5. Does anybody have a definitive answer to what "points" are actually considered for the tiebreaker???

Here are the details from the SoCon site, but it still doesn't explicitly define what the points entail. It says fewest points allowed, but I can't tell if it means in the games between the 3 teams, total for conference games, total for season???

Football

Championship Determination Tie-breaking Procedures: The Southern Conference champion shall be

the team that finishes with the best won-loss percentage in Conference games during the regular

season. In the case that two or more schools finish with identical won-loss records, they shall be

declared co-champions.


NCAA Automatic Bid Tie-breaking Procedures: The Conference champion shall be awarded an

automatic bid to the NCAA FCS Playoffs, provided it is eligible to compete in the post-season under

NCAA guidelines. In the event that co-champions are declared, the automatic bid will be awarded as

follows:


A. In the case of a two-way tie, the automatic bid will be awarded to the winner of the game

between the tied teams during the regular season;


B. In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first

considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record

against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken,

the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is

considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team

with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not

resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the

Commissioner;


C. In the event of multiple ties after a three-way tie, the same procedure as used to break a threeway

tie will be applied until the tie is broken.

[PaladinFan]

Incidentally, I think there is also a peculiar scenario where Wofford could go 10-1 or 9-2 and not be the autobid. That would require Wofford to lose to Samford and the Bulldogs win out. Samford would take the autobid in that scenario so long as Western Carolina wasn't involved, which means they'd have to drop another game.

I could be wrong, but I don't think that sort of scenario has played out since 2005 when Furman went 9-2 and wasn't the autobid. Furman had two conference losses, and while App State had a worse record, had dropped only 1 SoCon game (to Furman).

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Furman may be a safer playoff bet outside of Wofford, especially if they win this weekend at Mercer. This weekend's Wofford/Samford game will tell us how good both of those teams are in terms of final standings. If Samford wins, barring a late season fade away (as is the norm), they are on the top of the league; if they lose, they may be mid-tier.

For playoff positioning purposes, if you're a general socon fan you would want Samford and Furman to win this weekend as it makes the math a little more clear.

I think the best way to look at the Socon is analagous to last year, with Wofford taking Citadel's spot, Western taking Chattanooga, Samford (as of right now) where they were last year, and Furman in the place of Wofford. The Socon is just as strong as last year at the top, it's just that different teams are in different spots. Mercer could invalidate all analysis of this tbh.

[PaladinFan]

I think Furman may be a safer playoff bet outside of Wofford, especially if they win this weekend at Mercer. This weekend's Wofford/Samford game will tell us how good both of those teams are in terms of final standings. If Samford wins, barring a late season fade away (as is the norm), they are on the top of the league; if they lose, they may be mid-tier.

For playoff positioning purposes, if you're a general socon fan you would want Samford and Furman to win this weekend as it makes the math a little more clear.

I think the best way to look at the Socon is analagous to last year, with Wofford taking Citadel's spot, Western taking Chattanooga, Samford (as of right now) where they were last year, and Furman in the place of Wofford. The Socon is just as strong as last year at the top, it's just that different teams are in different spots. Mercer could invalidate all analysis of this tbh.

If you are a general SoCon fan, you want Wofford to lose so your team has a shot at a title.

[Reign of Terrier]

If you are a general SoCon fan, you want Wofford to lose so your team has a shot at a title.

Well if you're a fan of the conference writ large, you want as many in the playoffs as possible

[wcugrad95]

Does anybody have the answer to the question about which "points" are looked at in a 3-way tie? I don't expect it to happen, but if it ever does I am curious what that tiebreaker really is. Just says "the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams" but is that in the games between the 3 teams (WCU gave up 35 to Wofford and 34 to Samford), conference games (won't know until the last SoCon game), or for the season (unfair for teams that play 12 games or multiple FBS teams)???

As for the season playing out, my guess if Samford pulls out the upset this weekend things can easily get crazy the next 3 weekends with all the teams who are playing each other.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think it's overall, in conference play

[Terrier19]

I do not see any scenario to which the title isn't either Wofford or Samford. In any tiebreak scenario (3 way) Wofford holds all the tie break wins, seeing that Wofford already has wins against the highest seeds in the conference (Furman, Western, Mercer, Citadel) Furman and Western both lost to Wofford, Samford lost to Western. So any 3 way scenario will lean to Wofford. Now that is if the season played out as FAVORED (which is no lock). But since this is all hypothetical, IMO, the most likely 2 scenarios are Samford wins and must win out to claim the autobid (no easy task), or Wofford wins against Samford, and they are basically a lock to win no worse than a share of the SoCon crown. Wofford has to lose 2 more games to open the door for any other team not named Samford.

"In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record
against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken,
the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is
considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken."

[Terrier19]

So the most likely scenarios are that Samford beats Wofford, and would need to win out to hold onto the autobid, any loss and Wofford reclaims the spot.
Wofford wins, and it is basically a lock for Wofford as they would need to lose 2 games against the lowest 3 ranked teams in the conference as the remainder of the schedule.
Any 3 way scenario that Wofford is involved in, they would win the autobid due to already beating the other "highest ranked teams" in the league per the SoCOn Tie Break rules. (Samford already lost to Western, Western-Furman-MErcer-Citadel all lost to Wofford already).

[FUBeAR]

I do not see any scenario to which the title isn't either Wofford or Samford. In any tiebreak scenario (3 way) Wofford holds all the tie break wins, seeing that Wofford already has wins against the highest seeds in the conference (Furman, Western, Mercer, Citadel) Furman and Western both lost to Wofford, Samford lost to Western. So any 3 way scenario will lean to Wofford. Now that is if the season played out as FAVORED (which is no lock). But since this is all hypothetical, IMO, the most likely 2 scenarios are Samford wins and must win out to claim the autobid (no easy task), or Wofford wins against Samford, and they are basically a lock to win no worse than a share of the SoCon crown. Wofford has to lose 2 more games to open the door for any other team not named Samford.

"In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record
against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken,
the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is
considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken."

So...let’s say Wofford loses to Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI.

And Samford loses to Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, but beats ETSU...

That’s 4 SoCon losses for Woffy & for Samford.

VMI only has 4 SoCon losses at this point & they would hold the tie-breaker over Wofford & say ETSU picks up another loss....

Does Wofford finish last in the SoCon? What’s the tie-breaker for last place?

[tenNesseeCat]

I do not see any scenario to which the title isn't either Wofford or Samford. In any tiebreak scenario (3 way) Wofford holds all the tie break wins, seeing that Wofford already has wins against the highest seeds in the conference (Furman, Western, Mercer, Citadel) Furman and Western both lost to Wofford, Samford lost to Western. So any 3 way scenario will lean to Wofford. Now that is if the season played out as FAVORED (which is no lock). But since this is all hypothetical, IMO, the most likely 2 scenarios are Samford wins and must win out to claim the autobid (no easy task), or Wofford wins against Samford, and they are basically a lock to win no worse than a share of the SoCon crown. Wofford has to lose 2 more games to open the door for any other team not named Samford.

"In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record
against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken,
the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is
considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken."

Unless Samford beats Wofford, and they both score a lot of points in that game, like 42-38. Then Wofford, Samford, and WCU all win out in conference. If that happens, Wofford doesn't hold any tie breaking wins. They would all only have 1 loss in conference play. It would come down to points allowed. I still don't think it's clear as to what points allowed they are referring to.

I also was wondering how they choose who hosts in the first round. A couple of the projections I've looked at has WCU playing KSU. How would they determine who would host that game?

[woffordgrad94]

So...let’s say Wofford loses to Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI.

And Samford loses to Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, but beats ETSU...

That’s 4 SoCon losses for Woffy & for Samford.

VMI only has 4 SoCon losses at this point & they would hold the tie-breaker over Wofford & say ETSU picks up another loss....

Does Wofford finish last in the SoCon? What’s the tie-breaker for last place?
It is more likely that I will win the lottery than it is for that scenario to play out. If Wofford loses out then I will run through downtown Spartanburg naked. Yes, bare-ass naked!

[Terrier19]

Unless Samford beats Wofford, and they both score a lot of points in that game, like 42-38. Then Wofford, Samford, and WCU all win out in conference. If that happens, Wofford doesn't hold any tie breaking wins. They would all only have 1 loss in conference play. It would come down to points allowed. I still don't think it's clear as to what points allowed they are referring to.

I also was wondering how they choose who hosts in the first round. A couple of the projections I've looked at has WCU playing KSU. How would they determine who would host that game?

Per the Tie Break Rules of the SoCon the tie break is determined by best record against the other higher seeded teams in the conference before they ever get to points scored.....

[Terrier19]

Unless Samford beats Wofford, and they both score a lot of points in that game, like 42-38. Then Wofford, Samford, and WCU all win out in conference. If that happens, Wofford doesn't hold any tie breaking wins. They would all only have 1 loss in conference play. It would come down to points allowed. I still don't think it's clear as to what points allowed they are referring to.

I also was wondering how they choose who hosts in the first round. A couple of the projections I've looked at has WCU playing KSU. How would they determine who would host that game?

A. In the case of a two-way tie, the automatic bid will be awarded to the winner of the game

between the tied teams during the regular season;


B. In the event of a three-way tie, the won-loss records of the tied teams against each other is first

considered (i.e., head to head concept). If the teams are still tied, then each team’s record

against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered. If the tie is still not broken,

the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is

considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken. If the tie is still not broken, the team

with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered. If this does not

resolve the tie, then the automatic bid will be determined by a random draw conducted by the

Commissioner;


- - - Updated - - -


So...let’s say Wofford loses to Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI.

And Samford loses to Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, but beats ETSU...

That’s 4 SoCon losses for Woffy & for Samford.

VMI only has 4 SoCon losses at this point & they would hold the tie-breaker over Wofford & say ETSU picks up another loss....

Does Wofford finish last in the SoCon? What’s the tie-breaker for last place?

xcoffeex

[tenNesseeCat]

Any 3 way scenario that Wofford is involved in, they would win the autobid due to already beating the other "highest ranked teams" in the league per the SoCOn Tie Break rules.

This just doesn't make sense to me. If Wofford, Samford, and WCU are all tied with 1 conference loss. That would mean they all won vs lower teams. It would have to go to points allowed, right?

[walliver]

The autobid in 2012 came down to points allowed. ASU, GSU and Wofford were tied at 6-2. The tiebreaker was complicated as there were three teams tied for fourth at 5-3 (Citadel, Samford and Chatty).

Georgia Southern had the fewest points allowed and got the autobid. The three teams tied for first were all ranked highly so it really didn't make a difference.

In 2013, there were three teams tied for 1st at 6-2 with 4 teams tied next at 4-4 (although 2 were ineligible). And I still think Chatty got screwed that year. This year, three teams tied at 7-1 would not present a problem (the auto bid would be meaningless). Three teams at 6-2 should be safe although the autobid would be helpful to teams with D2/PFL wins.

If Wofford, WCU and Samford all go 7-1, the autobid will be determined by points allowed. It probably isn't important since auto-bid status is not a factor in seeding.

[PaladinFan]

This just doesn't make sense to me. If Wofford, Samford, and WCU are all tied with 1 conference loss. That would mean they all won vs lower teams. It would have to go to points allowed, right?

Yes. They would all be undefeated against the rest of the SoCon.

That was not the case in 2013 where the three tied teams all had two conference losses, but had lost to different teams.

[tenNesseeCat]

The autobid in 2012 came down to points allowed. ASU, GSU and Wofford were tied at 6-2. The tiebreaker was complicated as there were three teams tied for fourth at 5-3 (Citadel, Samford and Chatty).

Georgia Southern had the fewest points allowed and got the autobid. The three teams tied for first were all ranked highly so it really didn't make a difference.

In 2013, there were three teams tied for 1st at 6-2 with 4 teams tied next at 4-4 (although 2 were ineligible). And I still think Chatty got screwed that year. This year, three teams tied at 7-1 would not present a problem (the auto bid would be meaningless). Three teams at 6-2 should be safe although the autobid would be helpful to teams with D2/PFL wins.

So is it fewest points for the whole season, in conference, or among the teams in the tie?

[PaladinFan]

The autobid in 2012 came down to points allowed. ASU, GSU and Wofford were tied at 6-2. The tiebreaker was complicated as there were three teams tied for fourth at 5-3 (Citadel, Samford and Chatty).

Georgia Southern had the fewest points allowed and got the autobid. The three teams tied for first were all ranked highly so it really didn't make a difference.

In 2013, there were three teams tied for 1st at 6-2 with 4 teams tied next at 4-4 (although 2 were ineligible). And I still think Chatty got screwed that year. This year, three teams tied at 7-1 would not present a problem (the auto bid would be meaningless). Three teams at 6-2 should be safe although the autobid would be helpful to teams with D2/PFL wins.

In 2013 three teams tied at 6-2: Furman, UTC, Samford. All had a 1-1 record against the other (Furman over Samford, UTC over Furman, Samford over UTC).

UTC lost the tie breaker because it lost to Georgia Southern, the #4 team. Both Samford and Furman beat Wofford, the #5. Furman had beaten the Citadel, #6, which Samford had not.

I think all of that only mattered for the autobid. UTC was left home, presumably, because they had the same record as Samford and lost the head to head matchup. In that year, the third SoCon team was firmly on the bubble.

[PaladinFan]

So is it fewest points for the whole season, in conference, or among the teams in the tie?

I don't think the rule is particularly well written.

I think the rule intends to apply to points allowed in conference play.

[Reign of Terrier]

So...let’s say Wofford loses to Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI.

And Samford loses to Furman, Mercer, Chattanooga, but beats ETSU...

That’s 4 SoCon losses for Woffy & for Samford.

VMI only has 4 SoCon losses at this point & they would hold the tie-breaker over Wofford & say ETSU picks up another loss....

Does Wofford finish last in the SoCon? What’s the tie-breaker for last place?

No, because VMI would have to win out as would Chattanooga; You would need VMI to beat Citadel and ETSU and Western Carolina. Chattanooga would lose to Samford in this model, putting them at 1-4, but they would need to beat VMI, ETSU and Citadel

Not saying that the above isn't possible, but if it does happen...Citadel has 5 losses and finishes last.

So I know you're trying to troll and you have this weird hatred for Wofford (going on random message boards cheering against us; on a side note I think it's funny how i've triggered a couple Samford fans on their board just by spitballing statistics that may be of no consequence), but nope, we've won a sufficient amount to clinch not being last in the Socon.

[woffordgrad94]

Actually I think Mr. FUBeAR is just merely playing around and trying to get under the skin of Wofford posters. And earlier I played right into his hands by responding and posting that I’d run naked. Darn it! I should have just ignored the post! He got me.

[Terrier19]

And with all the hypotheticals....Wofford has its destiny in its own hands and doesn't require any additional help. I like our spot. All hypothetical scenarios for anyone else to win are based on needing help from us. Homecoming this weekend with another ranked opponent. Bring em on.........

[walliver]

In 2013 three teams tied at 6-2: Furman, UTC, Samford. All had a 1-1 record against the other (Furman over Samford, UTC over Furman, Samford over UTC).

UTC lost the tie breaker because it lost to Georgia Southern, the #4 team. Both Samford and Furman beat Wofford, the #5. Furman had beaten the Citadel, #6, which Samford had not.

I think all of that only mattered for the autobid. UTC was left home, presumably, because they had the same record as Samford and lost the head to head matchup. In that year, the third SoCon team was firmly on the bubble.

There was actually a four-way tie for #4 - the SoCon doesn't tie-break any positions below #1.

I believe your description in 2013 is actually more accurate:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?147382-2013-Southern-Conference-Power-Rankings-Predictions-Week-12/page8&highlight=2013+soCon+tiebreaker post #73.

[Terrier19]

This just doesn't make sense to me. If Wofford, Samford, and WCU are all tied with 1 conference loss. That would mean they all won vs lower teams. It would have to go to points allowed, right?

Maybe I wasnt looking at that right........I could see this as an outcome now......It is possible....But this has a lot of moving parts....If Wofford wins this weekend all of this is naught......

- - - Updated - - -


This just doesn't make sense to me. If Wofford, Samford, and WCU are all tied with 1 conference loss. That would mean they all won vs lower teams. It would have to go to points allowed, right?

Maybe I wasnt looking at that right........I could see this as an outcome now......It is possible....But this has a lot of moving parts....If Wofford wins this weekend all of this is naught......

[Gangtackle11]

Massey predicts 26 teams will have 7+ wins not counting the AQ qualifiers from the PL, Pioneer, & NEC.

That means 21 spots for 26 teams with 7+ D1 wins. A few are getting left out. May see an 8 win team out this season.

Ex: Good chance 4 SLC teams will have 8+ wins. UCA, Sammy, Nicholls, & McNeese.

I fully understand that Nova needs to win out.

[walliver]

Massey predicts 26 teams will have 7+ wins not counting the AQ qualifiers from the PL, Pioneer, & NEC.

That means 21 spots for 26 teams with 7+ D1 wins. A few are getting left out. May see an 8 win team out this season.

Ex: Good chance 4 SLC teams will have 8+ wins. UCA, Sammy, Nicholls, & McNeese.

I fully understand that Nova needs to win out.

For better or worse, the favored team doesn't always win, and there will likely be fewer than 26 7+ win teams.

The playoffs are, however, somewhat cyclical. Some years good teams get left out, and some years weak teams get autobids.

At this point of the season, only a handful of FCS teams can afford a loss.

[Gangtackle11]

For better or worse, the favored team doesn't always win, and there will likely be fewer than 26 7+ win teams.

The playoffs are, however, somewhat cyclical. Some years good teams get left out, and some years weak teams get autobids.

At this point of the season, only a handful of FCS teams can afford a loss.

Understood. It was for informational purpose not meant to be fact. xpeacex

[Reign of Terrier]

What people don't understand about computer models is that they are probabilistic averages. For instance, my rag tag Bull**** model has Mercer losing to Furman 27-26. Will that happen? probably not. But it tells you that the average expectation is a very close Furman win. It's still a coin flip and in some ways is worthless (but so are all forecasts for close games). The averages tell you what you can expect or if, given outcomes, whether or not a team over/under-performs or if their strong/weak schedule has led the data to indicate that a team is better/worse than they are. You won't know until the dataset is complete...at the end of the season.

And football, particularly college football is different, because 99% of teams don't ever rematch, so it's a much less stable model for outcomes. Contrast that with the NBA or NFL or college basketball, which rematches everyone in conference at least once a season, and the information for the computer ranking is less reliable for college football.

And the Socon is weird because Wofford has played most of the top 6 in the conference, Mercer has played most everyone and has the best sample but of the other mid-tier of the conference, Furman has played Wofford and the three bottom tier and Samford has only played 3 games in conference.

So any computer rankings at this point are going to be flawed or unreliable. I'll be more confident about them (any of them) after this week because you'll have a better sample of Furman and Samford.

I'm only confident in saying Wofford and Western Carolina will probably make the playoffs; everything else is up in the air and margin of error