STATS Playoff Predictions

[SU DOG]

http://www.fcs.football/fcsfront.asp

[walliver]

That can't be right ... there is no South Carolina only bracket.

[Daytripper]

Don't see Illinois State making it.

[RabidRabbit]

Also no Big Sky Seed. Interesting that WIU gets the 3rd of 3 MVFC seeds. Must be projecting no or only 1 more loss for WIU. Likewise, keep seeing YSU not seeded. Granted, if they don't win vs NDSU, they're not going to win the MVFC auto-bid.

Pretty certain that most (if not all) MVFC teams that are 6-5, or better, with MVFC records of 4-4 or better, make play-offs.

[FUBeAR]

http://www.fcs.football/fcsfront.asp

6 in from the MVFC, huh?

I think it's time we look a little harder at this...

* Let's start with 3-2 YSU...their only 'good' win is over fellow-MVFC-er, SDSU. 2 wins over bad NEC Teams and a loss to a bad FBS ACC Team

* On to that very same 4-1 SDSU...I don't see a good win in their resume - I see a win over a bad NEC Team, a win over a meh team from the Big Lie Conference, a win over a bad non-schollie Team, and a win over a bottom-feeding MVFC Team that has no good wins either. So...is YSU's win over SDSU really all that good? Hard to say, isn't it?

* On to 4-1 Illinois State - I see 0 good wins and 1 bad loss - Wins over bad PFL Team, a meh OVC Team that almost lost last week to a winless OVC Team, a win over THE bottom feeder of the MVFC whose only win is over a bottom feeding OVC Team, and that bad loss to a meh Big Lie Team whose only prior D1 wins were over a winless Big Lie Team and another Big Lie Team whose only D1 win is over the perennial Big Lie bottom-feeder.

I'm all good with NDSU, South Dakota, and Western Illinois, but the 3 above, IMO, do not have Playoff-worthy resumes (yet)....other than the Conference Logos on their jerseys. Hey, maybe that's enough for the Selection Committee these days.

I just think after the way the Big Lie pooped the linens in the Playoffs last year, we just can't assume these MVFC wins over BLC Teams are 'good wins.' And if we can't assume that, then I think it follows that we can't assume wins over other MVFC Teams that only have 'good wins' over BLC Teams are also 'good wins.'

Not to worry though, MVFC...

I'm not so sure about the CAA having 5 either....UNH (GaSou may be FBS, but it's in name only - they SUCK!), Richmond, nor Villanova.
Similar situation - just insert NEC, Patsy, MEAC, or Ivy for BLC and it's the same set of arguments for those 3. No quarrel with JMU, nor Elon (at this point).

[Professor Chaos]

6 in from the MVFC, huh?

I think it's time we look a little harder at this...

* Let's start with 3-2 YSU...their only 'good' win is over fellow-MVFC-er, SDSU. 2 wins over bad NEC Teams and a loss to a bad FBS ACC Team

* On to that very same 4-1 SDSU...I don't see a good win in their resume - I see a win over a bad NEC Team, a win over a meh team from the Big Lie Conference, a win over a bad non-schollie Team, and a win over a bottom-feeding MVFC Team that has no good wins either. So...is YSU's win over SDSU really all that good? Hard to say, isn't it?

* On to 4-1 Illinois State - I see 0 good wins and 1 bad loss - Wins over bad PFL Team, a meh OVC Team that almost lost last week to a winless OVC Team, a win over THE bottom feeder of the MVFC whose only win is over a bottom feeding OVC Team, and that bad loss to a meh Big Lie Team whose only prior D1 wins were over a winless Big Lie Team and another Big Lie Team whose only D1 win is over the perennial Big Lie bottom-feeder.

I'm all good with NDSU, South Dakota, and Western Illinois, but the 3 above, IMO, do not have Playoff-worthy resumes (yet)....other than the Conference Logos on their jerseys. Hey, maybe that's enough for the Selection Committee these days.

I just think after the way the Big Lie pooped the linens in the Playoffs last year, we just can't assume these MVFC wins over BLC Teams are 'good wins.' And if we can't assume that, then I think it follows that we can't assume wins over other MVFC Teams that only have 'good wins' over BLC Teams are also 'good wins.'

Not to worry though, MVFC...

I'm not so sure about the CAA having 5 either....UNH (GaSou may be FBS, but it's in name only - they SUCK!), Richmond, nor Villanova.
Similar situation - just insert NEC, Patsy, MEAC, or Ivy for BLC and it's the same set of arguments for those 3. No quarrel with JMU, nor Elon (at this point).
So who do you put in instead of those MVFC and CAA teams? You need to get to 14 at large teams somehow.

[BisonTru]

So who do you put in instead of those MVFC and CAA teams? You need to get to 14 at large teams somehow.

This. To say teams don't have a playoff worthy resume, is pointless at this point. Nobody has a playoff resume. Hell, I don't know why he left NDSU off his not worthy list. We have one win over a probable playoff team. That's not exactly a lock for the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

This. To say teams don't have a playoff worthy resume, is pointless at this point. Nobody has a playoff resume. Hell, I don't know why he left NDSU off his not worthy list. We have one win over a probable playoff team. That's not exactly a lock for the playoffs.

Prolly correct, but there's someone out there 'selling' this as the the Brackets...so I'm 'selling' that they haven't put the necessary thought/research behind it. If you ain't 'buying' either, I can respect that.

[BisonTru]

Prolly correct, but there's someone out there 'selling' this as the the Brackets...so I'm 'selling' that they haven't put the necessary thought/research behind it. If you ain't 'buying' either, I can respect that.

Go put a bracket together and get back to me. It looks actually really close to me. The MVFC is the toughest conference and if a team can get to 6 wins in that conference they're likely to be in the field. Massey at the moment has 6 teams projected to have 6+ D1 wins.

[FUBeAR]

So who do you put in instead of those MVFC and CAA teams? You need to get to 14 at large teams somehow.

Dunno - I have enough trouble doing my Top 25 each week. I'm not gonna put the thought required into doing that. But whoever is 'selling' this as THE Bracket hasn't either. All I'm saying.

If the SoCon, at this point, had the kind of OOC Record they did last year, I might be railing against the creator of this for 'short-selling' that Conference, but not too many impressive win there either...so, I can't really argue any of them up. I don't know the right answer, but I think it's warranted to look a little deeper than Conference Affiliation (weighted using the past 5-7 years or so) and Current Record. That's what this looks like to me.

[SU DOG]

Prolly correct, but there's someone out there 'selling' this as the the Brackets...so I'm 'selling' that they haven't put the necessary thought/research behind it. If you ain't 'buying' either, I can respect that.

STATS isn't "selling" this as THE bracket, read their questions and comments, and I only posted it with no comment. Wonder who this seller is?

[jadmt]

Everyone knows Montana will be there. It took a while but it is all starting to come together.

[FUBeAR]

Go put a bracket together and get back to me. It looks actually really close to me. The MVFC is the toughest conference and if a team can get to 6 wins in that conference they're likely to be in the field. Massey at the moment has 6 teams projected to have 6+ D1 wins.

Oh...so you ARE buying this bracket after all. Seems like you just said you weren't. Nah - not gonna put one together - see my response to Prof.

I'll buy that the MVFC has, in the past 5-7 years been the toughest conference, and, for the most part, held up that 'title' in the Playoffs last year...but these OOC wins THIS YEAR are NOT impressive...not with the way the BLC showed in the Playoffs last year.

Also - I think saying 6 wins means automatic berth for any MVFC Team is completely ludicrous. Should 3 wins over 1 NEC, 1 PFL and 1 bad BLC Team plus 3 MVFC wins over, say...Missouri State, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois qualify a Team for the Playoffs? Of course not. Even the most homer-est MVFC Fan wouldn't say that....I don't think.

[BisonTru]

Oh...so you ARE buying this bracket after all. Seems like you just said you weren't. Nah - not gonna put one together - see my response to Prof.

I'll buy that the MVFC has, in the past 5-7 years been the toughest conference, and, for the most part, held up that 'title' in the Playoffs last year...but these OOC wins THIS YEAR are NOT impressive...not with the way the BLC showed in the Playoffs last year.

Also - I think saying 6 wins means automatic berth for any MVFC Team is completely ludicrous. Should 3 wins over 1 NEC, 1 PFL and 1 bad BLC Team plus 3 MVFC wins over, say...Missouri State, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois qualify a Team for the Playoffs? Of course not. Even the most homer-est MVFC Fan wouldn't say that....I don't think.

To start off the words "likely" and "automatic" are not synonyms.

Second, it would take you less time to go thru and pick 10 autos and then find 14 at large teams especially trying to leave off 5 or so teams from the CAA and MVFC that you don't think are worthy.... yet... or something than to continue to argue your point.

Third, the MVFC has looked every bit as impressive as the last couple years. Arguably possibly even tougher.

[FUBeAR]

STATS isn't "selling" this as THE bracket, read their questions and comments, and I only posted it with no comment. Wonder who this seller is?

They aren't selling...really? Non-Profit? Federally or Donor Funded? Nope...

"Sponsorship Opportunities - For sponsorship opportunities around STATS’ FCS content or awards, or advertising in our annual awards show program, please contact us and we will work with you to find an opportunity that best suits your needs."


And they are selling this write-up as: "The crystal ball: FCS playoff projections"

They want our clicks...so they can 'sell' their sponsorship opportunities...so they are SELLING this content...that I don't think it has enough thought/research behind it. I think they've adopted the traditional 'wisdom' of the past, rather than peeling back the layers of this year's onion.

[jmufan999]

I don't really have a problem with this bracket. Seems reasonable and possible. Could potentially see a Spatters/Sammy rematch, and they might need to find a scoreboard with triple digits for that one.

[FUBeAR]

To start off the words "likely" and "automatic" are not synonyms.

Second, it would take you less time to go thru and pick 10 autos and then find 14 at large teams especially trying to leave off 5 or so teams from the CAA and MVFC that you don't think are worthy.... yet... or something than to continue to argue your point.

Third, the MVFC has looked every bit as impressive as the last couple years. Arguably possibly even tougher.

1) True - I interpreted your "likely" as "automatic" because I don't see any reason at all why that should be even likely. At 6-5, they better have one heckuva a good case to get in. Having an MVFC patch on their jerseys is not enough of a case, IMO.

2) You obviously aren't aware of the depths of my OCD. Without a CRAY at my disposal, me creating a bracket at this point in the season would take years and cost hundreds of lives. That's why I respected your 1st (now functionally disavowed) response so much.

3) Maybe - I haven't watched enough MVFC this year to really agree or disagree. They are sure beating some bad teams, which is a lot better than NOT beating them!

[kdinva]

I'll start making my own predictions about Nov. 13th.......

[BisonTru]

1) True - I interpreted your "likely" as "automatic" because I don't see any reason at all why that should be even likely. At 6-5, they better have one heckuva a good case to get in. Having an MVFC patch on their jerseys is not enough of a case, IMO.

2) You obviously aren't aware of the depths of my OCD. Without a CRAY at my disposal, me creating a bracket at this point in the season would take years and cost hundreds of lives. That's why I respected your 1st (now functionally disavowed) response so much.

3) Maybe - I haven't watched enough MVFC this year to really agree or disagree. They are sure beating some bad teams, which is a lot better than NOT beating them!

Post your top 25 and I'll do it for you.

[FUBeAR]

Post your top 25 and I'll do it for you.

Nah - I'll sign up for some access-time on a CRAY and let you know when I'm done.

[Professor Chaos]

1) True - I interpreted your "likely" as "automatic" because I don't see any reason at all why that should be even likely. At 6-5, they better have one heckuva a good case to get in. Having an MVFC patch on their jerseys is not enough of a case, IMO.

2) You obviously aren't aware of the depths of my OCD. Without a CRAY at my disposal, me creating a bracket at this point in the season would take years and cost hundreds of lives. That's why I respected your 1st (now functionally disavowed) response so much.

3) Maybe - I haven't watched enough MVFC this year to really agree or disagree. They are sure beating some bad teams, which is a lot better than NOT beating them!
Well, you said you were a voter so it shouldn't be that much effort to go through your poll and pick the field from it (since it looks like you were critiquing current resume not projected end of year resume). For instance here would be mine as it currently stands (bolded team is the auto):

CAA (6): JMU, Elon, UNH, Nova, Richmond, Delaware
MVFC (6): NDSU, USD, YSU, WIU, SDSU, Illinois St
OVC (1): JSU
SLC (2): UCA, SHSU
SOCON (3): Wofford, WCU, Samford
Big Sky (2): EWU, Weber St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Patriot (1): Lafayette
NEC (1): Duquesne
Pioneer (1): Jacksonville

First 4 out: Albany, Northern Arizona, McNeese, Nicholls

You don't need to actually build the pods (that's generally just an exercise in futility anyway). The whole thing took me about 8 minutes.

[BisonTru]

Nah - I'll sign up for some access-time on a CRAY and let you know when I'm done.

K. Don't keep me waiting. Here I'll do one with the AGS Poll

Seeds
1. James Madison - CAA Auto
2. North Dakota St - MVFC Auto
3. South Dakota - At large #1
4. Jacksonville St - OVC Auto
5. Wofford - SoCon Auto
6. Central Arkansas - Southland Auto
7. Youngstown St - At large #2
8. South Dakota St - At large #3

First Round (in order)
Sam Houston St - At large #4
Western Illinois - At large #5
Eastern Wash - Big Sky Auto
Villanova - At large #6
Elon - At large #7
Weber St - At large #8
New Hampshire At large #9
Illinois St - At large #10
Richmond - At large #11
Samford - At large #12
Western Carolina - At large #13
Northern Ariz - At large #14
Monmouth - Big South Auto
Colgate - Patriot Auto
Duquesne - NEC Auto
San Diego - Pioneer Auto

First Four Out:
McNeese St
Delaware St
Stony Brook
Montana

Next Four:
Albany
Nicholls St
The Citadel
Montana St

[FargoBison]

6 in from the MVFC, huh?

I think it's time we look a little harder at this...

* Let's start with 3-2 YSU...their only 'good' win is over fellow-MVFC-er, SDSU. 2 wins over bad NEC Teams and a loss to a bad FBS ACC Team

* On to that very same 4-1 SDSU...I don't see a good win in their resume - I see a win over a bad NEC Team, a win over a meh team from the Big Lie Conference, a win over a bad non-schollie Team, and a win over a bottom-feeding MVFC Team that has no good wins either. So...is YSU's win over SDSU really all that good? Hard to say, isn't it?

* On to 4-1 Illinois State - I see 0 good wins and 1 bad loss - Wins over bad PFL Team, a meh OVC Team that almost lost last week to a winless OVC Team, a win over THE bottom feeder of the MVFC whose only win is over a bottom feeding OVC Team, and that bad loss to a meh Big Lie Team whose only prior D1 wins were over a winless Big Lie Team and another Big Lie Team whose only D1 win is over the perennial Big Lie bottom-feeder.

I'm all good with NDSU, South Dakota, and Western Illinois, but the 3 above, IMO, do not have Playoff-worthy resumes (yet)....other than the Conference Logos on their jerseys. Hey, maybe that's enough for the Selection Committee these days.

I just think after the way the Big Lie pooped the linens in the Playoffs last year, we just can't assume these MVFC wins over BLC Teams are 'good wins.' And if we can't assume that, then I think it follows that we can't assume wins over other MVFC Teams that only have 'good wins' over BLC Teams are also 'good wins.'

Not to worry though, MVFC...

I'm not so sure about the CAA having 5 either....UNH (GaSou may be FBS, but it's in name only - they SUCK!), Richmond, nor Villanova.
Similar situation - just insert NEC, Patsy, MEAC, or Ivy for BLC and it's the same set of arguments for those 3. No quarrel with JMU, nor Elon (at this point).


What you should be arguing for is retraction of the playoff field....24 teams was designed for the FCS of yesterday...not the FCS of today.

[nevadagriz]

Everyone knows Montana will be there. It took a while but it is all starting to come together.
SHHHHHHHH! They have forgot about the Griz don't remind them. We are from the Big Lie and last years playoff results somehow matter a year later involving teams that were not even in the playoffs. Repeat after me jadmt The Griz suck, The bigsky sucks, Mvfc is the greatest all other shall live under their shadow!

[ST_Lawson]

Also - I think saying 6 wins means automatic berth for any MVFC Team is completely ludicrous. Should 3 wins over 1 NEC, 1 PFL and 1 bad BLC Team plus 3 MVFC wins over, say...Missouri State, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois qualify a Team for the Playoffs? Of course not. Even the most homer-est MVFC Fan wouldn't say that....I don't think.

I know I wouldn't...actually said as much in my article reviewing last week's MVFC games (http://thefcswedge.com/mvfc/mvfc-week-6-in-review/):


In general, 7 DI wins will get MVFC teams at-large spots in the playoffs, and 6 DI wins is possible if the situation is right and the team gets a bit of help from other “bubble teams”. It’s happened twice so far, WIU in ’15, and ILSU in ’16, but it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.

All you have to do is look at last year for us. 3-0 OOC, beat Eastern Illinois, then #17 Northern Arizona, and FBS Northern Illinois.
But, we only had 3 conference wins (Indiana State by 1, Missouri State by 3, South Dakota by 1). We finished 6-5, and while it was disappointing to me at the time, we did not deserve to be in the playoffs. I think that a 6-5 team getting into the playoffs has to really have a tough OOC and do well in those games.

EDIT - They also have to perform competitively in most of their losses. We got blown out by SDSU, and at the end of the season, were beat by SIU by 10.

[JSUSoutherner]

EWU- San Diego winner to Jacksonville? That's a big second round trek.

[BisonTru]

Since I got that far. Here is the AGS Bracket.

Colgate/Villanova @ 1. James Madison
Illinois St/Eastern Wash @ 8. South Dakota St

Western Ill/Weber St @ 4. Jacksonville St
Elon/Western Carolina @ 5. Wofford

San Diego/N Arizona @ 3. South Dakota
Samford/Sam Houston St @ 6. Central Arkansas

Duquesne/Richmond @ 7. Youngstown St
Monmouth/New Hampshire @ 2. North Dakota St

[JSUSoutherner]

Since I got that far. Here is the AGS Bracket.

Colgate/Villanova @ 1. James Madison
Illinois St/Eastern Wash @ 8. South Dakota St

Western Ill/Weber St @ 4. Jacksonville St
Elon/Western Carolina @ 5. Wofford

San Diego/N Arizona @ 3. South Dakota
Samford/Sam Houston St @ 6. Central Arkansas

Duquesne/Richmond @ 7. Youngstown St
Monmouth/New Hampshire @ 2. North Dakota St

Solid.

[CockyGeek]

They never take regions into account , but the committee always does. No way San Diego comes to JSU.

[Professor Chaos]

They never take regions into account , but the committee always does. No way San Diego comes to JSU.
If there's no seeded Big Sky team it really doesn't matter much at that point since it's a flight no matter where they go. The way it's looking the westernmost seeded teams might be in the eastern Dakotas or Arkansas/east Texas. They've gotta send those western playoff teams to some seeded team.

[BisonTru]

They never take regions into account , but the committee always does. No way San Diego comes to JSU.

It's all about maximizing bus trips. Once you get over 400 miles it's a plane and then it doesn't matter after that. The way things sit today it's likely Samford comes to Jacksonville St, but when I did mine I also noticed Central Arkansas is 401 miles from Samford. Not sure how they'd view that but I'd call it a bus trip.

[phoenix3]

This is all fun, but there's a lot of season left... I would agree with the top 6-8 teams but there's a lot of work left to do for the bottom 2/3s.

[kalm]

SHHHHHHHH! They have forgot about the Griz don't remind them. We are from the Big Lie and last years playoff results somehow matter a year later involving teams that were not even in the playoffs. Repeat after me jadmt The Griz suck, The bigsky sucks, Mvfc is the greatest all other shall live under their shadow!

And I could have sworn the BIg Lie had a team one play away from the Chipper last year.

[BisonTru]

And I could have sworn the BIg Lie had a team one play away from the Chipper last year.

When did we switch from the Big Fluffy to the Big Lie? Nobody sent me the memo, damnit. :Dxdrunkyx

[Bison56]

SHHHHHHHH! They have forgot about the Griz don't remind them. We are from the Big Lie and last years playoff results somehow matter a year later involving teams that were not even in the playoffs. Repeat after me jadmt The Griz suck, The bigsky sucks, Mvfc is the greatest all other shall live under their shadow!

You're finally catching on!xthumbsupx

[BisonTru]

And I could have sworn the BIg Lie had a team one play away from the Chipper last year.

I will say with all this bracketology that the Big Sky will get one seed when the dust settles. Probably 2-3 for the MVFC. 1-2 for the CAA. JMO.

[FUBeAR]

And I could have sworn the BIg Lie had a team one play away from the Chipper last year.

Yep - the SINGLE good team in the Big Lie sure was only 1 ridiculous play away....while the other Big Lie PlayoffsPosers were getting curb-stomped by a non-schollie, gully-washed by the 3rd place SoCon Team, and beaten down by an unseeded CAA Team that your Team subsequently pole-axed 38-0.

EWU did just fine. The rest of the Big Lie was a shiite show in the Playoffs - only 1 Team should have been there - NOT 4.

[kalm]

Yep - the SINGLE good team in the Big Lie sure was only 1 ridiculous play away....while the other Big Lie PlayoffsPosers were getting curb-stomped by a non-schollie, gully-washed by the 3rd place SoCon Team, and beaten down by an unseeded CAA Team that your Team subsequently pole-axed 38-0.

EWU did just fine. The rest of the Big Lie was a shiite show in the Playoffs - only 1 Team should have been there - NOT 4.

And replaced with?

[FUBeAR]

And replaced with?

I don't know - How about the next 3 PFL Teams, maybe...they would have shown about as well.

[kalm]

I don't know - How about the next 3 PFL Teams, maybe...they would have shown about as well.

Of course you don't know. The next two out were definitely Albany and possibly WIU IIRC. Upsets and poor showings happen in the playoffs and the BLC has taken their share over the last few years.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't know - How about the next 3 PFL Teams, maybe...they would have shown about as well.
Oh man... if UND would've gotten snubbed last year I can't imagine how many weights they would've lifted this past offseason.... maybe the selection committee was just trying to take it easy on the overworked weight room equipment in Grand Forks??? #WeightsLivesMatter

[soconjohn5]

Everyone knows JMU carries the CAA...At least Furman's losses have come to three ranked foes....At this point, they have as good as resume as anyone in the SoCon...Who has played a tougher schedule thus far in the SoCon...I go Wofford, Furman, Western and Samford as playoff candidates, and if we really want to go on strength thus far, it would be Wofford, Western and Furman in that order.

[citdog]

Everyone knows JMU carries the CAA...At least Furman's losses have come to three ranked foes....At this point, they have as good as resume as anyone in the SoCon...Who has played a tougher schedule thus far in the SoCon...I go Wofford, Furman, Western and Samford as playoff candidates, and if we really want to go on strength thus far, it would be Wofford, Western and Furman in that order.

furman sucks

[soconjohn5]

yeah yeah yeah Citdog...I hear ya.

[FUBeAR]

Of course you don't know.

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, but it sounds pretty beeyatchy...do you know my wife? Am you she?

But I misstated myself anyway. I should have said "I don't care." The Big Lie Conference is The Big Lie Conference to me until they prove otherwise.

I have no doubt they'll have more chances than they deserve to do that in the Playoffs again this year.

[kalm]

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, but it sounds pretty beeyatchy...do you know my wife? Am you she?

But I misstated myself anyway. I should have said "I don't care." The Big Lie Conference is The Big Lie Conference to me until they prove otherwise.

I have no doubt they'll have more chances than they deserve to do that in the Playoffs again this year.

Simple question for a guy with an opinion and you answered you don't know. You just know you don't like the BLC. Ok.

[katss07]

I'd love to see a Kats vs Elon matchup...

[FUBeAR]

Simple question for a guy with an opinion and you answered you don't know. You just know you don't like the BLC. Ok.

yeah - you're right - "I don't care," as I said, was the correct word choice. I have nothing against the BLC. I just have not been impressed with any of the Teams in the Conference other than Eastern Washington. Granted, my exposure is limited, but watching Weber State (they were awful) vs. Chatt last year and Cal-Poly (even more awful) vs USD told me all I needed to know about the rest of the BLC.

As an example, I have a strong feeling this year's VMI Team would thrash the Cal-Poly Team that I saw in the 1st round of the Playoffs last year. Maybe I'm crazy...and I know I don't agree with Sagarin or Massey or Ferguson or Jenkins or anyone else...but that's just what I see.

[jadmt]

SHHHHHHHH! They have forgot about the Griz don't remind them. We are from the Big Lie and last years playoff results somehow matter a year later involving teams that were not even in the playoffs. Repeat after me jadmt The Griz suck, The bigsky sucks, Mvfc is the greatest all other shall live under their shadow!

LOL. I guess we will enjoy it all the more. You know why eastern montana is so windy don't you? 'cause all the suck east of the border LOL. All I know is it is good to be back on track.

[BisonTru]

yeah - you're right - "I don't care," as I said, was the correct word choice. I have nothing against the BLC. I just have not been impressed with any of the Teams in the Conference other than Eastern Washington. Granted, my exposure is limited, but watching Weber State (they were awful) vs. Chatt last year and Cal-Poly (even more awful) vs USD told me all I needed to know about the rest of the BLC.

As an example, I have a strong feeling this year's VMI Team would thrash the Cal-Poly Team that I saw in the 1st round of the Playoffs last year. Maybe I'm crazy...and I know I don't agree with Sagarin or Massey or Ferguson or Jenkins or anyone else...but that's just what I see.

Well we are all impressed your conference hung around with catawaba.... ba? .... for three quarters. xrotatehx

[Milktruck74]

since I won't be traveling to see my Mocs, I have to hope Those Catamounts come off their Wallet to host..... So I can get a game in for week one....then it is off to Wofford or Elon for week 2.

[Milktruck74]

Well we are all impressed your conference hung around with catawaba.... ba? .... for three quarters. xrotatehx

Not sure if you are being funny, or know the story....in the late 80s/early 90s, the printer for the parking permits added an extra A, it wasn't caught on the proofs, so they had stickers on all the students cars that said CatawAba......So in HS we always called it Cat-uh-wah-buh, instead of Cat-taw-buh.

[BisonTru]

Not sure if you are being funny, or know the story....in the late 80s/early 90s, the printer for the parking permits added an extra A, it wasn't caught on the proofs, so they had stickers on all the students cars that said CatawAba......So in HS we always called it Cat-uh-wah-buh, instead of Cat-taw-buh.

xlolx

I guess I just walked into that one. A little rivalry tidbit I didn't expect.

[dbackjon]

Well, you said you were a voter so it shouldn't be that much effort to go through your poll and pick the field from it (since it looks like you were critiquing current resume not projected end of year resume). For instance here would be mine as it currently stands (bolded team is the auto):

CAA (6): JMU, Elon, UNH, Nova, Richmond, Delaware
MVFC (6): NDSU, USD, YSU, WIU, SDSU, Illinois St
OVC (1): JSU
SLC (2): UCA, SHSU
SOCON (3): Wofford, WCU, Samford
Big Sky (2): EWU, Weber St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Patriot (1): Lafayette
NEC (1): Duquesne
Pioneer (1): Jacksonville

First 4 out: Albany, Northern Arizona, McNeese, Nicholls

You don't need to actually build the pods (that's generally just an exercise in futility anyway). The whole thing took me about 8 minutes.

So you have Illinois State in, but the team that thrashed them out...Interesting

[Professor Chaos]

So you have Illinois State in, but the team that thrashed them out...Interesting
Yep, I do. Not very proud of it either.

[wcugrad95]

Like many have posted, polls and playoff projections at the mid-way point of a season are only geared towards generating debate (and clicks). I'd say mission accomplished, and part of me says it is meaningless at this stage. But supporting a team that has to overcome a history of not-so-good football, we have to scratch and crawl our ways to respect and getting any kind of standing in the polls. I don't think anybody would argue that is driven by the preconceived notion that leagues like the CAA and MVFC automatically have better teams. I'd argue the SoCon is not actually down right now, but that in general the teams are better and it is harder for there to be a ton of separation with the top 4. Right now I think Wofford, Samford, and WCU are deserving. In 2 weeks, I could see Furman having a strong case, too. But like everybody said, until we have a full body of work it is hard to move the teams and leagues that are perceived at the top out from the top.

[BEAR]

So what does the committee do if both McNeese and Nicholls go 9-2 with UCA and Sammy going 10-1? Will the SLC get 3 in? Who gets dropped?

Purely hypothetical of course.

[Thumper 76]

Like many have posted, polls and playoff projections at the mid-way point of a season are only geared towards generating debate (and clicks). I'd say mission accomplished, and part of me says it is meaningless at this stage. But supporting a team that has to overcome a history of not-so-good football, we have to scratch and crawl our ways to respect and getting any kind of standing in the polls. I don't think anybody would argue that is driven by the preconceived notion that leagues like the CAA and MVFC automatically have better teams. I'd argue the SoCon is not actually down right now, but that in general the teams are better and it is harder for there to be a ton of separation with the top 4. Right now I think Wofford, Samford, and WCU are deserving. In 2 weeks, I could see Furman having a strong case, too. But like everybody said, until we have a full body of work it is hard to move the teams and leagues that are perceived at the top out from the top.

How many games have you watched for other conferences?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wcugrad95]

How many games have you watched for other conferences?


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Nowhere close to enough - I am not trying to argue the other conferences being more or less deserving. I am saying in the end if Wofford, WCU, Samford, and Furman all someway come up with 6-2 type conference records and 8 or so wins, those teams would be deserving - 7 wins end up making you borderline and possibly left out. I'd say anybody who is being totally honest would say that they don't watch or really know enough about the other conferences they don't follow, either. I follow FCS by reading boards and box scores and watching whatever coverage I can easily get, but no way am I going to say the SoCon is equal to such and such conference because I honestly don't know. My point was it will take losses from the other conferences' top teams for teams other than Wofford from my list to move up. For the SoCon, I think I watch plenty to know that the teams in this conference are better across the board compared to say 3 or 4 years ago - but that is comparing the games and teams that I follow weekly and yearly.

And FWIW, a million years ago (around 1990-1991) I actually played in the Southern Conference. But ironically not where I ended up graduating from. So I at least have played and understand the game, particularly at the FCS level. Doesn't make me an expert, just saying I am at least a little knowledgeable about football.

[PaladinFan]

Nowhere close to enough - I am not trying to argue the other conferences being more or less deserving. I am saying in the end if Wofford, WCU, Samford, and Furman all someway come up with 6-2 type conference records and 8 or so wins, those teams would be deserving - 7 wins end up making you borderline and possibly left out. I'd say anybody who is being totally honest would say that they don't watch or really know enough about the other conferences they don't follow, either. I follow FCS by reading boards and box scores and watching whatever coverage I can easily get, but no way am I going to say the SoCon is equal to such and such conference because I honestly don't know. My point was it will take losses from the other conferences' top teams for teams other than Wofford from my list to move up. For the SoCon, I think I watch plenty to know that the teams in this conference are better across the board compared to say 3 or 4 years ago - but that is comparing the games and teams that I follow weekly and yearly.

And FWIW, a million years ago (around 1990-1991) I actually played in the Southern Conference. But ironically not where I ended up graduating from. So I at least have played and understand the game, particularly at the FCS level. Doesn't make me an expert, just saying I am at least a little knowledgeable about football.

I'm still in favor of going back to 16 teams and seeding 4 again. Letting the fourth, fifth, or sixth best team in a conference into the post season waters down the quality and makes the FCS little better than the bowl system, in my opinion. Everyone gets a trophy!

My math may be wrong, but

In 2004, 12 of the 16 playoff teams had at least 9 wins. The remaining 4 teams all had at least 8 wins.

In 2016, 11 of 24 playoff teams had at least 9 wins. 6 teams had 7 wins. 1 team (ISU) had 6.

You tell me which bracket looks like "the best of the best" and which bracket looks like "y'all come on."

[kalm]

I'm still in favor of going back to 16 teams and seeding 4 again. Letting the fourth, fifth, or sixth best team in a conference into the post season waters down the quality and makes the FCS little better than the bowl system, in my opinion. Everyone gets a trophy!

My math may be wrong, but

In 2004, 12 of the 16 playoff teams had at least 9 wins. The remaining 4 teams all had at least 8 wins.

In 2016, 11 of 24 playoff teams had at least 9 wins. 6 teams had 7 wins. 1 team (ISU) had 6.

You tell me which bracket looks like "the best of the best" and which bracket looks like "y'all come on."

The best of the best is still there in both. I don't see anyone harmed by the expanded field. More schools get a taste which motivates to them to up their game and program. Small towns benefit from the increased business. Seeds get a bye which leads to health and better football in the later rounds.

I've never considered less football better and if my team gives me one more game to watch or one more home game to attend even if they're a 6 or 7 win team, that's a win for me as a fan.

It's like saying "nah, those tits are just too big".

I like football.

[Sammy94]

So what does the committee do if both McNeese and Nicholls go 9-2 with UCA and Sammy going 10-1? Will the SLC get 3 in? Who gets dropped?

Purely hypothetical of course.

AGS would blow up if more than 2 SLC teams would get in.

[Professor Chaos]

AGS would blow up if more than 2 SLC teams would get in.
It shouldn't. With 11 full scholly teams playing 9 conference games each it shouldn't be that tough to get 3 teams to 8 wins or more.

[PaladinFan]

The best of the best is still there in both. I don't see anyone harmed by the expanded field. More schools get a taste which motivates to them to up their game and program. Small towns benefit from the increased business. Seeds get a bye which leads to health and better football in the later rounds.

I've never considered less football better and if my team gives me one more game to watch or one more home game to attend even if they're a 6 or 7 win team, that's a win for me as a fan.

It's like saying "nah, those tits are just too big".

I like football.

Isn't that the same argument for Bowls, though? Hey, more football. Not more quality football, just more.

When you are selecting 6 win teams and a bunch of 7 win teams just to fill out the bracket, isn't that just watering down the whole idea of the post season?

[Professor Chaos]

Isn't that the same argument for Bowls, though? Hey, more football. Not more quality football, just more.

When you are selecting 6 win teams and a bunch of 7 win teams just to fill out the bracket, isn't that just watering down the whole idea of the post season?
I'm with kalm on this one. Most years the true title contenders are in the top 8 anyway and the 24 team format doesn't really change anything for them. In fact, I really like the Thanksgiving weekend bye for the top teams once they expanded to 20 (and eventually 24) teams and I like having the break in between the semis and the title game even though I prefer it when there is two weeks between instead of 3 weeks. If they do go back to 16 (which I highly doubt unless the championship starts hemorrhaging money) I hope they keep the Thanksgiving weekend bye and the break between the semis and the title game.

[PaladinFan]

I'm with kalm on this one. Most years the true title contenders are in the top 8 anyway and the 24 team format doesn't really change anything for them. In fact, I really like the Thanksgiving weekend bye for the top teams once they expanded to 24 and I like having the break in between the semis and the title game even though I prefer it when there is two weeks between instead of 3 weeks. If they do go back to 16 (which I highly doubt unless the championship starts hemorrhaging money) I hope they keep the Thanksgiving weekend bye and the break between the semis and the title game.

Last year, was of course, an exception with Youngstown State advancing out of the first round.

I guess my point is, if you aren't a title contender, what are you doing in the post season? Doesn't it lessen the regular season?

Last post season I count at least 4 teams that finished fourth in their conference (Cal Poly, Richmond, Illinois State, Samford). Doesn't that incentive not worrying about winning your conference title and getting the autobid?

[Professor Chaos]

Last year, was of course, an exception with Youngstown State advancing out of the first round.

I guess my point is, if you aren't a title contender, what are you doing in the post season? Doesn't it lessen the regular season?

Last post season I count at least 4 teams that finished fourth in their conference (Cal Poly, Richmond, Illinois State, Samford). Doesn't that incentive not worrying about winning your conference title and getting the autobid?
Coming from the fan of a team that has finished at least tied for the conference title the last 6 years running I'll say not really. I know the MVFC conference title means a ton to the NDSU coaches and players and to start the year they don't even talk about goals of winning a national title (even though that's probably a goal in the back of their minds). It's all about winning the MVFC first and then taking the playoffs as they come from there. As fans getting into those two 2 seeds is huge because it means we get to see our team at home until they lose or make it Frisco. Look at the reaction of SDSU fans after they lost to Illinois St last year or Western Illinois the year before. Both years they were comfortably in the playoffs but their fans were rightfully ****ing pissed because they had a chance at a high seed that was thrown by the way side.

Homefield advantage is huge in football so there's plenty of incentive to gun for those top 8 seeds (1 guaranteed home game), top 4 (2 guaranteed home games if you win), or top 2 (home field until Frisco if you win). In fact, I'd throw a counterargument in there that if we went back to only seeding 4 teams in a 16 team field we would de-incentivize (is that a word?) any teams gunning for those 5-8 spots because whether they get there or not they're still going to be in a bidding war for a playoff home game in the 1st round.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Isn't that the same argument for Bowls, though? Hey, more football. Not more quality football, just more.

When you are selecting 6 win teams and a bunch of 7 win teams just to fill out the bracket, isn't that just watering down the whole idea of the post season?

But at the end of FCS round one you don't have a bunch of teams declaring themselves the champion of this bowl or that bowl.
Just move on and get ready for the next game

[walliver]

I prefer the 16 team format, but don't think it would work well with the current rules. Since the FCS playoffs are an NCAA-sponsored event, unlike the private playoff Clemson and Alabama play for, politics play a bigger role. In the 16 team format, the top 8 conferences got bids and everybody else competed for an at-large spot. Since autobids have been added for the NEC, Big South, and PFL (and the MEAC gave up their spot), the number of at-large spots would fall to only 6, which probably isn't enough.

Currently, I would prefer the 20-team format. More teams get Thanksgiving off with fewer very poorly attended games on Thanksgiving weekend. There are still 10 at-large spots so deserving teams are unlikely to be left out.

To me, the 24-team format is becoming more like March Madness. Half the field has to win a conference tournament to get in, but teams in power conferences just have to make sure they don't suck too badly to get a bid. The primary difference is that March Madness is extremely profitable, and some of that profit is used to subsidize the money-losing FCS playoffs. The 24-team format also has way too many games on Thanksgiving weekend.

[Professor Chaos]

I prefer the 16 team format, but don't think it would work well with the current rules. Since the FCS playoffs are an NCAA-sponsored event, unlike the private playoff Clemson and Alabama play for, politics play a bigger role. In the 16 team format, the top 8 conferences got bids and everybody else competed for an at-large spot. Since autobids have been added for the NEC, Big South, and PFL (and the MEAC gave up their spot), the number of at-large spots would fall to only 6, which probably isn't enough.

Currently, I would prefer the 20-team format. More teams get Thanksgiving off with fewer very poorly attended games on Thanksgiving weekend. There are still 10 at-large spots so deserving teams are unlikely to be left out.

To me, the 24-team format is becoming more like March Madness. Half the field has to win a conference tournament to get in, but teams in power conferences just have to make sure they don't suck too badly to get a bid. The primary difference is that March Madness is extremely profitable, and some of that profit is used to subsidize the money-losing FCS playoffs. The 24-team format also has way too many games on Thanksgiving weekend.
I would be on board with reducing to a 20 team field as long as they kept the top 8 seeded. That would really help out with regionalization creating unbalanced brackets as well since they would essentially have to pool the #13-20 teams since they would play Thanksgiving weekend and the #9-12 teams (since they would be matched up with the 5-8 seeds).

That would be a big improvement over how they do it now where after the top 8 the final 16 are thrown into one big pool and placed into the bracket based purely on geography.

[wcugrad95]

I can see both sides, but I totally agree a "real" playoff is head-and-shoulders above the bowls. My oldest daughter just started at FAU, and while I can understand the school's excitement with the changes that have taken place with their football team, they are getting really pumped up that the program is poised to get at least 6 wins to become "bowl eligible" and head to somewhere like the St. Pete or Bahamas Bowl to hopefully finish with a winning record. Maybe they do something crazy and win 8 and go to some other mid-December bowl. This is really big for them after mediocre to bad seasons for some time, but doesn't compare to the excitement that I feel for WCU and their chance to make it into the playoffs and have at least a theoretical chance to play multiple playoff games and even compete for a National Championship. WCU's chances would obviously be slim, just like anybody coming from the non-seeded ranks. But at least there would be a chance.

Full disclosure - I will go to the WCU playoff game AND to the FAU bowl game if they both happen.

[walliver]

I can see both sides, but I totally agree a "real" playoff is head-and-shoulders above the bowls. My oldest daughter just started at FAU, and while I can understand the school's excitement with the changes that have taken place with their football team, they are getting really pumped up that the program is poised to get at least 6 wins to become "bowl eligible" and head to somewhere like the St. Pete or Bahamas Bowl to hopefully finish with a winning record. Maybe they do something crazy and win 8 and go to some other mid-December bowl. This is really big for them after mediocre to bad seasons for some time, but doesn't compare to the excitement that I feel for WCU and their chance to make it into the playoffs and have at least a theoretical chance to play multiple playoff games and even compete for a National Championship. WCU's chances would obviously be slim, just like anybody coming from the non-seeded ranks. But at least there would be a chance.

Full disclosure - I will go to the WCU playoff game AND to the FAU bowl game if they both happen.

So far the high point of FAU's football program is making the quarterfinals of the 1-AA playoffs in 2003xnodx.
I don't blame them for moving on as South Florida is not exactly a hot-bed of FCS football.

[Professor Chaos]

I can see both sides, but I totally agree a "real" playoff is head-and-shoulders above the bowls. My oldest daughter just started at FAU, and while I can understand the school's excitement with the changes that have taken place with their football team, they are getting really pumped up that the program is poised to get at least 6 wins to become "bowl eligible" and head to somewhere like the St. Pete or Bahamas Bowl to hopefully finish with a winning record. Maybe they do something crazy and win 8 and go to some other mid-December bowl. This is really big for them after mediocre to bad seasons for some time, but doesn't compare to the excitement that I feel for WCU and their chance to make it into the playoffs and have at least a theoretical chance to play multiple playoff games and even compete for a National Championship. WCU's chances would obviously be slim, just like anybody coming from the non-seeded ranks. But at least there would be a chance.

Full disclosure - I will go to the WCU playoff game AND to the FAU bowl game if they both happen.
Yep, I also like the notion that every FCS team in the country (unless they're under postseason sanctions) starts the year with a shot to win the national title. No matter how small it may be it's still a chance (copyright Lloyd Christmas) and each team controls its own fate. In the FBS other than the 64 P5 teams and a handful of elite G5 teams everyone else knows that no matter how well they do they'll never even have a chance to compete for a national title.

[dewey]

Yep, I also like the notion that every FCS team in the country (unless they're under postseason sanctions) starts the year with a shot to win the national title. No matter how small it may be it's still a chance (copyright Lloyd Christmas) and each team controls its own fate. In the FBS other than the 64 P5 teams and a handful of elite G5 teams everyone else knows that no matter how well they do they'll never even have a chance to compete for a national title.

Exactly right PC! I could possibly see the excitement of a bowl game but with the playoffs every week is in essence a bowl game. Plus the National Title game.

Dewey

[wcugrad95]

So far the high point of FAU's football program is making the quarterfinals of the 1-AA playoffs in 2003xnodx.
I don't blame them for moving on as South Florida is not exactly a hot-bed of FCS football.

For the FAU fans, the high point they remember is a 2007 Sun Belt championship and back-to-back bowl wins in the New Orleans and Motor City Bowls in 2007 and 2008. Since then it has been mediocre to bad. WCU has also been mediocre a few times, bad more than not, and down right awful frequently since our last "glory days" in the early 80s. So the bar is set relatively low at both programs I am most closely following (or at least giving money to) right now. I am hopeful both are getting better. But all that helps my case - WCU actually played in a National Championship game (although 35 years ago), and every season they can start with a "why not us" mentality. FAU at best strives for a middle-of-the-pack, non-New Year's Day bowl game. But they have a nice stadium, and visiting Boca late in football season is nice!

[Reign of Terrier]

Now that I think of it, there is precedent for a team with 6 D1 wins to get into the FCS playoffs. So Mercer and Furman may have a chance.