Big Sky, SoCon, Patriot

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Purpose of this post not meant to troll. Just finished voting in this week's poll. Why are these 3 conferences so far down this year?

I could see that sort of thing happening in 1 of these conferences ...or two ... but 3 major (if you want to consider the Patriot major) FCS conferences? Very odd.

[FurmanWins!!]

No even close to being accurate my friend.

Check the latest Sagarin ratings out today, SoCon is second best rated league (behind MVC and ahead of Colonial)

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

No even close to being accurate my friend.

Check the latest Sagarin ratings out today, SoCon is second best rated league (behind MVC and ahead of Colonial)

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Honestly, i'm not caring what the computers are saying the SoCon. Wofford is a Top 10 team but living on borrowed time. Citadel is way down, Chatty is way down. A few others like Furman might be better than expected but that's not looking like a grouping that's going to make much playoff noise.

[Reign of Terrier]

The Socon isn't down. Chattanooga is (horribly, horribly, dumpster-firely)down, VMI is more horrible than usually and the Citadel is trending downward.

Right now, the Socon has at least 2 playoff teams.

I think Wofford's playoff hopes are above 80% at this point. We're 5-0, and we still have to play 3 of the not-as-good teams in the conference (ETSU, Chattanooga, VMI)

Western has to win 3 more games to become eligible, and they still have some of the worst defenses in the conference to play: ETSU and VMI. They have some toss up games between Furman, the Citadel and Mercer, but I think they'll be 7-4 or 8-3. Their offense is just too good.

Samford could still make the playoffs and even win the conference. They have the toughest road between them/western/Wofford because they still have Wofford and Furman and Mercer.

Then you have two teams that could possibly make the playoffs on top of those three. Furman is the hottest team in the Socon at this point, but they still have to play Samford, Western and the Citadel, which will each present a unique challenge.

Mercer is good too, and quite frankly I think had they not pulled a Mercer and lost to ETSU, we would be talking about how good the Socon is. Mercer still has western, Furman and Samford, but they have to win basically all of their Socon games left to make the playoffs. They can do it, they have the defense and run game. But they are Mercer.

The Citadel probably won't make the playoffs, but at the same time I'd say they aren't a bad team, so much as they are a young team that makes mistakes. They're probably going to finish 5-6 or 6-5 which is frustrating given their recent success, but in the overall conference picture it isn't terrible.

ETSU is a team that isn't fully D1-ready yet. They have a pass game that keeps them competitive but their run game is nonexistent and their defense isn't great either.

Chattanooga and VMI are just bad this year.

I'd say the top teams in the Socon this year are as good as ever, but the middle tier teams aren't as consistent as middle tiers of the past, while the bottom 2 teams are tremendously bad compared to other recent years.

[kalm]

No even close to being accurate my friend.

Check the latest Sagarin ratings out today, SoCon is second best rated league (behind MVC and ahead of Colonial)

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

According to your link the SoCin is 4th behind the MVFC, CAA, and BSC.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford's a team on "borrowed time" when 4 of the 5 teams we've played have winning records against FCS and we haven't played the sub-par teams in the conference schedule. We played a sub-par game against a Gardner Webb team that's 1-4 with losses to an FBS team and 3 ranked teams, sue us. At this point last year, we were 3-2 but hadn't beaten a team with a winning record. At one point we were 4-3 and lost 2 games by a combined 5 points but didn't get a ranking. The rest is history. My point is, I think it's a weird bias to look at all but two of the FCS conferences and say "everyone is bad." Could it be that 20% of the division is better than the 80% rather than 80% is bad and 20% is average or good? I mean, isn't that how statistics work?

[FurmanWins!!]

According to your link the SoCin is 4th behind the MVFC, CAA, and BSC.


Nope its 2nd

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.34 82.32 ( 1) 7 81.61 ( 1)
2 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 81.06 80.62 ( 2) 7 80.94 ( 2)
3 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 80.04 78.99 ( 4) 6 79.76 ( 3)
4 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 79.24 79.29 ( 3) 7 79.25 ( 4)
5 BIG 12 (A) = 78.61 77.46 ( 6) 10 78.34 ( 5)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.37 77.66 ( 5) 7 77.60 ( 6)
7 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 76.59 77.29 ( 7) 6 77.11 ( 7)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.88 75.21 ( 8) 7 75.12 ( 8)
9 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.74 74.33 ( 9) 7 73.93 ( 9)
10 AAC WEST (A) = 70.18 69.98 ( 10) 6 70.02 ( 10)
11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 66.77 67.57 ( 11) 6 67.44 ( 11)
12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 66.17 67.14 ( 12) 4 65.72 ( 12)
13 AAC EAST (A) = 64.17 64.83 ( 13) 6 64.36 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.19 62.58 ( 14) 6 62.82 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 60.13 59.04 ( 16) 10 59.76 ( 15)
16 MWC-WEST (A) = 58.59 59.29 ( 15) 6 58.77 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.21 55.96 ( 18) 7 56.47 ( 18)
18 MAC-EAST (A) = 57.01 56.25 ( 17) 6 56.51 ( 17)
19 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.54 55.77 ( 19) 7 56.00 ( 19)
20 SUN BELT (A) = 55.09 55.26 ( 20) 12 55.21 ( 20)
21 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.62 47.64 ( 23) 9 48.93 ( 22)
22 COLONIAL (AA)= 49.52 49.81 ( 21) 12 49.60 ( 21)
23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.58 48.76 ( 22) 13 48.71 ( 23)
24 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 43.07 42.86 ( 25) 6 42.90 ( 24)
25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.12 43.33 ( 24) 9 42.79 ( 25)
26 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 41.60 40.91 ( 26) 8 41.11 ( 26)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 38.83 39.34 ( 27) 11 38.95 ( 27)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 34.61 35.01 ( 28) 7 34.93 ( 28)
29 PATRIOT (AA)= 34.61 34.63 ( 29) 7 34.63 ( 29)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 29.09 29.59 ( 30) 11 29.27 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 28.64 27.75 ( 31) 5 28.49 ( 31)
32 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 21.95 22.50 ( 32) 5 22.17 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 20.94 20.63 ( 33) 11 20.77 ( 33)
34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)

[kalm]

Nope its 2nd

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.34 82.32 ( 1) 7 81.61 ( 1)
2 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 81.06 80.62 ( 2) 7 80.94 ( 2)
3 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 80.04 78.99 ( 4) 6 79.76 ( 3)
4 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 79.24 79.29 ( 3) 7 79.25 ( 4)
5 BIG 12 (A) = 78.61 77.46 ( 6) 10 78.34 ( 5)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.37 77.66 ( 5) 7 77.60 ( 6)
7 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 76.59 77.29 ( 7) 6 77.11 ( 7)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.88 75.21 ( 8) 7 75.12 ( 8)
9 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.74 74.33 ( 9) 7 73.93 ( 9)
10 AAC WEST (A) = 70.18 69.98 ( 10) 6 70.02 ( 10)
11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 66.77 67.57 ( 11) 6 67.44 ( 11)
12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 66.17 67.14 ( 12) 4 65.72 ( 12)
13 AAC EAST (A) = 64.17 64.83 ( 13) 6 64.36 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.19 62.58 ( 14) 6 62.82 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 60.13 59.04 ( 16) 10 59.76 ( 15)
16 MWC-WEST (A) = 58.59 59.29 ( 15) 6 58.77 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.21 55.96 ( 18) 7 56.47 ( 18)
18 MAC-EAST (A) = 57.01 56.25 ( 17) 6 56.51 ( 17)
19 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.54 55.77 ( 19) 7 56.00 ( 19)
20 SUN BELT (A) = 55.09 55.26 ( 20) 12 55.21 ( 20)
21 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.62 47.64 ( 23) 9 48.93 ( 22)
22 COLONIAL (AA)= 49.52 49.81 ( 21) 12 49.60 ( 21)
23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.58 48.76 ( 22) 13 48.71 ( 23)
24 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 43.07 42.86 ( 25) 6 42.90 ( 24)
25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.12 43.33 ( 24) 9 42.79 ( 25)
26 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 41.60 40.91 ( 26) 8 41.11 ( 26)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 38.83 39.34 ( 27) 11 38.95 ( 27)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 34.61 35.01 ( 28) 7 34.93 ( 28)
29 PATRIOT (AA)= 34.61 34.63 ( 29) 7 34.63 ( 29)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 29.09 29.59 ( 30) 11 29.27 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 28.64 27.75 ( 31) 5 28.49 ( 31)
32 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 21.95 22.50 ( 32) 5 22.17 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 20.94 20.63 ( 33) 11 20.77 ( 33)
34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)


CONFERENCE WIN50% ARITH.MEAN TEAMS

1 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 84.53 81.82 7 ( 1)
2 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 80.22 77.44 6 ( 3)
3 BIG 12 (A) = 78.50 75.31 10 ( 5)
4 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 78.38 78.57 7 ( 2)
5 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 75.33 75.89 6 ( 4)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 74.78 75.01 7 ( 6)
7 AAC WEST (A) = 74.29 72.74 6 ( 8)
8 SEC-WEST (A) = 72.60 73.85 7 ( 7)
9 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 71.32 70.50 7 ( 10)
10 SEC-EAST (A) = 69.98 71.57 7 ( 9)
11 AAC EAST (A) = 62.53 64.94 6 ( 11)
12 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 60.45 60.93 6 ( 13)
13 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 58.79 62.18 4 ( 12)
14 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 58.38 57.80 10 ( 15)
15 MAC-WEST (A) = 58.27 58.50 6 ( 14)
16 MAC-EAST (A) = 55.99 56.19 6 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 53.90 53.59 7 ( 18)
18 MWC-WEST (A) = 53.11 55.95 6 ( 17)
19 COLONIAL (AA)= 52.40 52.29 12 ( 19)
20 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 50.13 49.77 7 ( 20)
21 BIG SKY (AA)= 49.65 49.53 13 ( 21)
22 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.08 46.06 9 ( 23)
23 SUN BELT (A) = 46.96 47.73 12 ( 22)
24 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 42.59 41.86 8 ( 24)
25 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 41.85 41.67 6 ( 25)
26 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 37.15 37.67 9 ( 27)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 36.76 38.27 11 ( 26)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 35.95 35.20 7 ( 28)
29 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 33.25 34.16 11 ( 29)
30 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 31.42 30.40 5 ( 30)
31 PATRIOT (AA)= 30.33 29.82 7 ( 31)
32 PIONEER (AA)= 27.55 27.59 11 ( 32)
33 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 23.84 24.96 5 ( 33)
34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -9

[FurmanWins!!]

Like I said SoCon is ranked 2nd

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 81.34 82.32 ( 1) 7 81.61 ( 1)
2 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 81.06 80.62 ( 2) 7 80.94 ( 2)
3 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 80.04 78.99 ( 4) 6 79.76 ( 3)
4 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 79.24 79.29 ( 3) 7 79.25 ( 4)
5 BIG 12 (A) = 78.61 77.46 ( 6) 10 78.34 ( 5)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 77.37 77.66 ( 5) 7 77.60 ( 6)
7 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 76.59 77.29 ( 7) 6 77.11 ( 7)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.88 75.21 ( 8) 7 75.12 ( 8)
9 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.74 74.33 ( 9) 7 73.93 ( 9)
10 AAC WEST (A) = 70.18 69.98 ( 10) 6 70.02 ( 10)
11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 66.77 67.57 ( 11) 6 67.44 ( 11)
12 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 66.17 67.14 ( 12) 4 65.72 ( 12)
13 AAC EAST (A) = 64.17 64.83 ( 13) 6 64.36 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.19 62.58 ( 14) 6 62.82 ( 14)
15 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 60.13 59.04 ( 16) 10 59.76 ( 15)
16 MWC-WEST (A) = 58.59 59.29 ( 15) 6 58.77 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.21 55.96 ( 18) 7 56.47 ( 18)
18 MAC-EAST (A) = 57.01 56.25 ( 17) 6 56.51 ( 17)
19 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 56.54 55.77 ( 19) 7 56.00 ( 19)
20 SUN BELT (A) = 55.09 55.26 ( 20) 12 55.21 ( 20)
21 SOUTHERN (AA)= 49.62 47.64 ( 23) 9 48.93 ( 22)
22 COLONIAL (AA)= 49.52 49.81 ( 21) 12 49.60 ( 21)
23 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.58 48.76 ( 22) 13 48.71 ( 23)
24 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 43.07 42.86 ( 25) 6 42.90 ( 24)
25 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 42.12 43.33 ( 24) 9 42.79 ( 25)
26 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 41.60 40.91 ( 26) 8 41.11 ( 26)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 38.83 39.34 ( 27) 11 38.95 ( 27)
28 NORTHEAST (AA)= 34.61 35.01 ( 28) 7 34.93 ( 28)
29 PATRIOT (AA)= 34.61 34.63 ( 29) 7 34.63 ( 29)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 29.09 29.59 ( 30) 11 29.27 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 28.64 27.75 ( 31) 5 28.49 ( 31)
32 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 21.95 22.50 ( 32) 5 22.17 ( 32)
33 PIONEER (AA)= 20.94 20.63 ( 33) 11 20.77 ( 33)
34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)

[UNHWildcat18]

eh MVFC CAA are 1/2 soconn Big Sky are 3/4 but not far behind

[Reign of Terrier]

What if I told you guys that those rankings were averages and for all intents and purposes the CAA, Socon and Big Sky conferences were within the margin of error of each other

[PaladinFan]

Purpose of this post not meant to troll. Just finished voting in this week's poll. Why are these 3 conferences so far down this year?

I could see that sort of thing happening in 1 of these conferences ...or two ... but 3 major (if you want to consider the Patriot major) FCS conferences? Very odd.

Some of the perception, I think, is from UTC having a terrible season after being a perennial top 15 team. That, I think, gives the perception of a weaker conference when realistically UTC is down but other teams are up.

In my long-held view, it is far harder to climb the polls than fall from them. Much of the rakings are simply name recognition year to year.

Take Richmond, who is ranked somewhere in the top 20 by most polls and is currently 3-2. They have two common opponents with Furman (Elon and Colgate). Both lost to Elon by 3. Richmond squeaked out a win on the road against Colgate by a field goal. Furman went to Hamilton two weeks later and ran the Raiders off their field.

So, is the SoCon "down" because 3-2 Richmond is ranked in the top 25 but 3-3 Furman is not? Furman has a 1 point loss in week 1 to Wofford, a 3 point loss to Elon (a game they should have won), and a loss to NC State. Furman has played two common opponents with Richmond, and on balance, was more impressive against both.

Again, you see what you want to see. If Richmond is top 20, isn't Furman?

[Reign of Terrier]

Above is exhibit A of "it's all relative" and vaguely referring to resumes to justify .500 teams in the rankings is bad.

If there were as many Socon posters here as CAA or MVFC we would all rank Furman high and talk about quality losses and overall resume and it would pass as a legitimate point. Quality losses are bull**** this early in the season because you have to have a body of work during the season. it's not inconceivable that bad teams play good teams close on occasion but lose an inordinate proportion.

[PaladinFan]

Above is exhibit A of "it's all relative" and vaguely referring to resumes to justify .500 teams in the rankings is bad.

If there were as many Socon posters here as CAA or MVFC we would all rank Furman high and talk about quality losses and overall resume and it would pass as a legitimate point. Quality losses are bull**** this early in the season because you have to have a body of work during the season. it's not inconceivable that bad teams play good teams close on occasion but lose an inordinate proportion.

I'm not suggesting Furman should be ranked.

I am suggesting that its sort of a dumb argument to say "what's wrong with the SoCon" when your own team benefits from the inherent biases of name recognition in the polling. Furman used to benefit from such biases too.

All I am doing is raising the question.

[Reign of Terrier]

If Furman wins their next 2 by 2 scores + I don't see how you shouldn't rank them

[centennial]

eh MVFC CAA are 1/2 soconn Big Sky are 3/4 but not far behind
CAA is not 2nd as per Sagarin. Maybe they are just for playoff purposes.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Worthy of mention here is all three conferences in the title had preseason Top 25 teams that have crashed and burned badly - Cal Poly, Chattanooga, and Lehigh. To a degree North Dakota and Holy Cross did too after some promising games.

The SoCon and Big Sky will be fine, because there a team like Mercer or NAU will certainly get into the conversation. The Patriot, though, will not because OOC they have been horrible across the board.

[UNHWildcat18]

CAA is not 2nd as per Sagarin. Maybe they are just for playoff purposes.

Eh I could care less about Sagarin, or ranking the bottom half of conferences. The only thing thats important for me, I rank conferences as I see their top 5 teams. Doesn't matter if VMI URI Indiana state suckass IMO. Even If I did id have trouble believing the soconn with VMI and ETSU is ahead of a CAA conference where a last place CAA URI team took a middle of the pack MAC team to OT. However I will say its rather early in the season to really rank them, should be done at the end of the season after playoffs

[phoenix3]

No even close to being accurate my friend.

Check the latest Sagarin ratings out today, SoCon is second best rated league (behind MVC and ahead of Colonial)

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Sagarin has Charleston Southern, Albany, Furman and Richmond all rated higher than Elon. In some cases much higher. These are all teams Elon has beaten this season. At what point does "fluke" become "expectation"? Sagarin looks severely flawed to me. And it's not just Elon. Some of his ratings are laughable. They may work for P5 FBS, but many are just flat screwy.

[centennial]

Sagarin has Charleston Southern, Albany, Furman and Richmond all rated higher than Elon. In some cases much higher. These are all teams Elon has beaten this season. At what point does "fluke" become "expectation"? Sagarin looks severely flawed to me. And it's not just Elon. Some of his ratings are laughable. They may work for P5 FBS, but many are just flat screwy.
The Sagarin bayesian system has weights before it is well connected. Basically, it looks at past performances to determine the starting point of your team. If your team was crap for the last few years it will start out as crap. Now, saying all this we are maybe a game or two from being well connected. If Elon is actually that good, we will see it in the playoffs, and once the system is well connected.

And before you come back at me with you don't believe in these ratings. Out of the 2 times I have played playoff predicting game on AGS, I was I think 3rd once and top 10 the other time(out of over 100 people). And I didn't beat Sagarin either time. Last year I think some JMU fans might have beat it narrowly.

[ElCid]

I have mentioned it before but Sagarin and Massey are both not very accurate in the first half of the year obviously. They get better as more games/teams get connected. Plus Sagarin does not account for any, zero, zilch, games for Div II or below. Massey does. So I always fell that Massey is just a bit better since there are dozens of games against Div II, III or NAIA teams. Not a huge amount better than Sagarin, but it is. And I have kept track for the last few years just for kicks and grins.

Currently Massey is picking winners at a 79% rate for the weekly predictions. Sagarin at a 77% rate. Also, if you look at the picks made by Massey for every single game of the season, which were made prior to the start of the season, it is picking correct at a 77% rate.

However, this coming week I saw something which I had not seen in the four or so years I have been checking his predictions. The favorites for the games coming up this week, according to the updated weekly predictions, have changed from the predictions made at the beginning of the season in 50% of the games. That is by far the largest flip I have ever seen in any given week. Lots of transition, lots of teams up and lots down from last year. I say last year because the rankings at the beginning of the year are based so much on last year and historical ratings and recent outcomes of match ups.

Just some useless data points.

Also, as far as looking at conferences, I saw that some folks may be discounting some teams at the bottom of their conferences. You absolutely cannot do that for the very obvious reason that these are the teams that the good teams in a conference will play. You can't get rid of a Rhode Islands or a VMIs or an Indiana Sts or a Cal Polys, (all of these were this years examples, nobody go ballistic on me) or whoever because they make up the competition of all/most of the teams in the conference. So when ranking conferences, if someone lays an egg and actually loses to a bottom team in their conference or wins a close one, it is all taken into account. At least as far as the ratings of any given team and ultimately a conference goes. And having more or less teams in a conference comes out in the wash as well. Conferences with a large number of teams may have more bad teams and feel penalized, but they may also have more good teams. In smaller conferences the good and bad teams may be magnified a bit more due to their numbers but it really does come out in the wash as far as how good or bad a conference is overall, on average. However, a team's conference rating does not necessarily say how good a team is though. It may, but it is not a guarantee. Just some logic to think about when complaining about conference ratings/rankings.

My brain hurts now.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Some of the perception, I think, is from UTC having a terrible season after being a perennial top 15 team. That, I think, gives the perception of a weaker conference when realistically UTC is down but other teams are up.

In my long-held view, it is far harder to climb the polls than fall from them. Much of the rakings are simply name recognition year to year.

Take Richmond, who is ranked somewhere in the top 20 by most polls and is currently 3-2. They have two common opponents with Furman (Elon and Colgate). Both lost to Elon by 3. Richmond squeaked out a win on the road against Colgate by a field goal. Furman went to Hamilton two weeks later and ran the Raiders off their field.

So, is the SoCon "down" because 3-2 Richmond is ranked in the top 25 but 3-3 Furman is not? Furman has a 1 point loss in week 1 to Wofford, a 3 point loss to Elon (a game they should have won), and a loss to NC State. Furman has played two common opponents with Richmond, and on balance, was more impressive against both.

Again, you see what you want to see. If Richmond is top 20, isn't Furman?

Fair points.

[Reign of Terrier]

I still don't see how people think Wofford is weak.

>We held Furman to a season low in terms points (by FCS teams) and even then we had biggest disadvantage compared to other teams because we didn't know what their playcalling tendencies were

>We scored more points on a solid Mercer team than anyone, including FBS Auburn

>We beat PC by 24, which is no big deal, but at the same time what more can you ask? When your criticism is that you beat a team by 24 instead of 44...I just don't get it.

>We beat a solid Western Carolina team (and held them to season lows for FCS competition)

We had one bad game against Gardner Webb, a team that is 1-4, but all 4 losses have been to ranked FCS teams and an FBS team, and we still pretty much controlled the game.

Our offense averages more yards than it did last year and we've only turned the ball over 4 times in 5 games.

Meanwhile, if we win our next two games (Samford and Citadel, which is a big if, but not impossible), I don't see how we lose another game in the FCS for the regular season. That's not to say ETSU, Chatt and VMI couldn't beat us...but we would certainly be favored.

So I'm seeing all of these comments about how weak Wofford is, I just don't see it. If you take away the losses our opponents have had to us + FBS teams their record is the following:
Furman: 3-1
Mercer: 4-1
PC: 3-1
GW: 1-2
Western: 4-0

I'll admit that the sample with GW/PC is too small to be substantial (on one hand, they haven't beaten a D1 team with sufficient scholarships, on another, they've lost to ranked teams + the Citadel), and admittedly that Mercer loss to ETSU was bad, but I don't see how we can say Wofford is bad at 5-0 when there are only 8 undefeated FCS teams left and only 13 FCS teams that haven't lost an FCS game. Regardless of one's conference SOS, it's hard to go undefeated.

[KPSUL]

No even close to being accurate my friend.

Check the latest Sagarin ratings out today, SoCon is second best rated league (behind MVC and ahead of Colonial)

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Sagarin uses three measurements to compare conferences, however the list they post is based on only one of them - it is called the Central Mean. The Central Mean uses the Sagarin ratings for individual teams but weighs the ratings of the middle team heavier than the highest and lowest teams. And the weighing is very significant! In a 12 team conference like the CAA, the middle two teams are rated 6 times heavier than the #1 team. That's right, each of the middle teams count 6 times more than the #1.

Another measure is a Simple mean which weighs every conference team equally. The third is a measure is call the WIN50% which is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round robins of the given group at a neutral location (whatever that means).

The CAA is currently rated higher than SoCon in both the Simple Mean and the WIN50%. The SoCon is in 4th after both the CAA and Big Sky if you use the Simple Mean.

Also there is no statistically significant differences between any of the 3 conferences (SoCon, CAA, BS) as the difference between the 3 is fractions of a point. (i.e. the central mean for the CAA is 0.1 pts less than SoCon. Since you can't score .1 pt you need to round it off. 0.1 rounds to 0) So let's agree to stop discussing it until there is at least something worth discussing.

The MVFC does have bragging rights since they are 10 points higher than any of the next three - theoretically that means if the MVFC teams played all the teams of any other conference teams at a neutral location an infinite amount of times, they would score, on average, 10 points more.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

The only good team in the Big Sky is UC Davis, they are the best team in all 3 phases of the game. Every other team sucks and most wont be over .500 when the season ends.

[woffordgrad94]

I still don't see how people think Wofford is weak.

>We held Furman to a season low in terms points (by FCS teams) and even then we had biggest disadvantage compared to other teams because we didn't know what their playcalling tendencies were

>We scored more points on a solid Mercer team than anyone, including FBS Auburn

>We beat PC by 24, which is no big deal, but at the same time what more can you ask? When your criticism is that you beat a team by 24 instead of 44...I just don't get it.

>We beat a solid Western Carolina team (and held them to season lows for FCS competition)

We had one bad game against Gardner Webb, a team that is 1-4, but all 4 losses have been to ranked FCS teams and an FBS team, and we still pretty much controlled the game.

Our offense averages more yards than it did last year and we've only turned the ball over 4 times in 5 games.

Meanwhile, if we win our next two games (Samford and Citadel, which is a big if, but not impossible), I don't see how we lose another game in the FCS for the regular season. That's not to say ETSU, Chatt and VMI couldn't beat us...but we would certainly be favored.

So I'm seeing all of these comments about how weak Wofford is, I just don't see it. If you take away the losses our opponents have had to us + FBS teams their record is the following:
Furman: 3-1
Mercer: 4-1
PC: 3-1
GW: 1-2
Western: 4-0

I'll admit that the sample with GW/PC is too small to be substantial (on one hand, they haven't beaten a D1 team with sufficient scholarships, on another, they've lost to ranked teams + the Citadel), and admittedly that Mercer loss to ETSU was bad, but I don't see how we can say Wofford is bad at 5-0 when there are only 8 undefeated FCS teams left and only 13 FCS teams that haven't lost an FCS game. Regardless of one's conference SOS, it's hard to go undefeated.
People who say Wofford is “weak” are likely going off of scores and scores alone. They see we have played close games so they crap all over us. Never mind that we won them all. That to me is pretty much it.

[Reign of Terrier]

Sagarin uses three measurements to compare conferences, however the list they post is based on only one of them - it is called the Central Mean. The Central Mean uses the Sagarin ratings for individual teams but weighs the ratings of the middle team heavier than the highest and lowest teams. And the weighing is very significant! In a 12 team conference like the CAA, the middle two teams are rated 6 times heavier than the #1 team. That's right, each of the middle teams count 6 times more than the #1.

Another measure is a Simple mean which weighs every conference team equally. The third is a measure is call the WIN50% which is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an infinite number of round robins of the given group at a neutral location (whatever that means).

The CAA is currently rated higher than SoCon in both the Simple Mean and the WIN50%. The SoCon is in 4th after both the CAA and Big Sky if you use the Simple Mean.

Also there is no statistically significant differences between any of the 3 conferences (SoCon, CAA, BS) as the difference between the 3 is fractions of a point. So let's agree to stop discussing it until there is at least something worth discussing.

The MVFC does have bragging rights since they are 10 points higher than any of the next three - theoretically that means if the MVFC teams played all the teams of any other conference teams at a neutral location an infinite amount of times, they would score, on average, 10 points more.

You buried the lead there. Ten points is like nothing much either.

[PaladinFan]

I still don't see how people think Wofford is weak.

>We held Furman to a season low in terms points (by FCS teams) and even then we had biggest disadvantage compared to other teams because we didn't know what their playcalling tendencies were

>We scored more points on a solid Mercer team than anyone, including FBS Auburn

>We beat PC by 24, which is no big deal, but at the same time what more can you ask? When your criticism is that you beat a team by 24 instead of 44...I just don't get it.

>We beat a solid Western Carolina team (and held them to season lows for FCS competition)

We had one bad game against Gardner Webb, a team that is 1-4, but all 4 losses have been to ranked FCS teams and an FBS team, and we still pretty much controlled the game.

Our offense averages more yards than it did last year and we've only turned the ball over 4 times in 5 games.

Meanwhile, if we win our next two games (Samford and Citadel, which is a big if, but not impossible), I don't see how we lose another game in the FCS for the regular season. That's not to say ETSU, Chatt and VMI couldn't beat us...but we would certainly be favored.

So I'm seeing all of these comments about how weak Wofford is, I just don't see it. If you take away the losses our opponents have had to us + FBS teams their record is the following:
Furman: 3-1
Mercer: 4-1
PC: 3-1
GW: 1-2
Western: 4-0

I'll admit that the sample with GW/PC is too small to be substantial (on one hand, they haven't beaten a D1 team with sufficient scholarships, on another, they've lost to ranked teams + the Citadel), and admittedly that Mercer loss to ETSU was bad, but I don't see how we can say Wofford is bad at 5-0 when there are only 8 undefeated FCS teams left and only 13 FCS teams that haven't lost an FCS game. Regardless of one's conference SOS, it's hard to go undefeated.

Good grief. Wofford was not at a serious disadvantage against Furman, who played a bunch of freshmen and had a brand new coaching staff and no familiarity with either their defensive or offensive system at game speed.

Besides, no one else has figured out Furman's play calling tendencies. Not like a few extra weeks would make a difference.

In any event, you well know why folks are still on the fence about Wofford. They have yet to beat any peer team convincingly. No one thinks they are weak, but they aren't going to get heaps of praise winning last gasp squeaker games each week.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I still don't see how people think Wofford is weak.

>We held Furman to a season low in terms points (by FCS teams) and even then we had biggest disadvantage compared to other teams because we didn't know what their playcalling tendencies were

>We scored more points on a solid Mercer team than anyone, including FBS Auburn

>We beat PC by 24, which is no big deal, but at the same time what more can you ask? When your criticism is that you beat a team by 24 instead of 44...I just don't get it.

>We beat a solid Western Carolina team (and held them to season lows for FCS competition)

We had one bad game against Gardner Webb, a team that is 1-4, but all 4 losses have been to ranked FCS teams and an FBS team, and we still pretty much controlled the game.

Our offense averages more yards than it did last year and we've only turned the ball over 4 times in 5 games.

Meanwhile, if we win our next two games (Samford and Citadel, which is a big if, but not impossible), I don't see how we lose another game in the FCS for the regular season. That's not to say ETSU, Chatt and VMI couldn't beat us...but we would certainly be favored.

So I'm seeing all of these comments about how weak Wofford is, I just don't see it. If you take away the losses our opponents have had to us + FBS teams their record is the following:
Furman: 3-1
Mercer: 4-1
PC: 3-1
GW: 1-2
Western: 4-0

I'll admit that the sample with GW/PC is too small to be substantial (on one hand, they haven't beaten a D1 team with sufficient scholarships, on another, they've lost to ranked teams + the Citadel), and admittedly that Mercer loss to ETSU was bad, but I don't see how we can say Wofford is bad at 5-0 when there are only 8 undefeated FCS teams left and only 13 FCS teams that haven't lost an FCS game. Regardless of one's conference SOS, it's hard to go undefeated.

TLDR.

And for what it's worth, I didn't say Wofford was weak. I said Wofford was living on borrowed time, which based on the results, they are.

[Reign of Terrier]

How can you say that a team that doesn't have film on another's tendencies *isn't* at a disadvantage. There are plenty of articles on the Spartanburg Herald website where Ayers and company basically say "we know they'll probably run some multiple and option but that's it." In post game, Ayers said we had game film of one game we would have been more prepared than this one.

There's a difference between lining up to run your offense (which is basic) when you have a whole summer to prepare for it than recreating an offense you're not 100% sure you'll actually see. It's kind of like with a wide out running a route and the defender defending it. The wide out still has an advantage over the defender simply because he knows where he's going with the route.

To use the language of game theory and economics, in football, all information is imperfect, but some information is more perfect than others. When it came to the Furman game, Wofford had the least perfect information of any staff this year.

We've been over this before, I don't see why you keep challenging it.

[Reign of Terrier]

TLDR.

And for what it's worth, I didn't say Wofford was weak. I said Wofford was living on borrowed time, which based on the results, they are.

Arguably, the entire CAA sans JMU and Elon is living off borrowed time right now xcoffeex

[KPSUL]

What if I told you guys that those rankings were averages and for all intents and purposes the CAA, Socon and Big Sky conferences were within the margin of error of each other

You'd be absolutely correct

- - - Updated - - -


Arguably, the entire CAA sans JMU and Elon is living off borrowed time right now xcoffeex

Oops! Now your wrong!

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Arguably, the entire CAA sans JMU and Elon is living off borrowed time right now xcoffeex

Youngterrier, I know you are nervous because it's probably time for you to get neutered soon but I'm not trying to insult your club.

That said, Woffy had an OT win over WoCo, 2 one point wins and a 3 point win. The Terriers are in the Top 10 because they started high and haven't lost. When they do , they'll drop a good 10 spots in the rankings.

Top 10 teams are supposed to be national championship contenders. Does anyone here think Wofford is really in that conversation? I don't.

And before you attempt to throw another one of your daggers my way... no Richmond is not a title contender either. They may not even be a playoff team. I'll find a way to wake up tomorrow, even if they aren't.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

By the way, my intention with this thread was not to make it about Wofford. You did that.

[Reign of Terrier]

Youngterrier, I know you are nervous because it's probably time for you to get neutered soon but I'm not trying to insult your club.

That said, Woffy had an OT win over WoCo, 2 one point wins and a 3 point win. The Terriers are in the Top 10 because they started high and haven't lost. When they do , they'll drop a good 10 spots in the rankings.

Top 10 teams are supposed to be national championship contenders. Does anyone here think Wofford is really in that conversation? I don't.

And before you attempt to throw another one of your daggers my way... no Richmond is not a title contender either. They may not even be a playoff team. I'll find a way to wake up tomorrow, even if they aren't.

All I'm saying is that by the same logic you guys are applying to Wofford, it can be applied to the entire CAA. I'm using Wofford as an example, because the entire premise of this thread is that everyone but the CAA/MVFC is bad, but Wofford is a good counter-example (and of course they are my team, which gets criticized a lot unfairly IMO). At the very least, the reasoning for why Wofford isn't good is a good counterexample to how there's special pleading for why the CAA is so good.

You can't have it one way, that SOS/playoff legacy means the CAA is a good/great conference, then on another criticize an undefeated team or put every near-loss under the microscope for a non-CAA/MVFC team. Because the only thing that permits that reasoning is a special kind of bias. Your borrowed time is okay, but ours isn't because we don't play in your conference. That's a double standard, you'd think they'd teach you why that was wrong at the University of Short Pump

[PaladinFan]

How can you say that a team that doesn't have film on another's tendencies *isn't* at a disadvantage. There are plenty of articles on the Spartanburg Herald website where Ayers and company basically say "we know they'll probably run some multiple and option but that's it." In post game, Ayers said we had game film of one game we would have been more prepared than this one.

There's a difference between lining up to run your offense (which is basic) when you have a whole summer to prepare for it than recreating an offense you're not 100% sure you'll actually see. It's kind of like with a wide out running a route and the defender defending it. The wide out still has an advantage over the defender simply because he knows where he's going with the route.

To use the language of game theory and economics, in football, all information is imperfect, but some information is more perfect than others. When it came to the Furman game, Wofford had the least perfect information of any staff this year.

We've been over this before, I don't see why you keep challenging it.

Every team does that to some degree in week 1. Ayers said they had even seen the two point play on film, so he clearly has some idea of what Furman was going to do.

Furman had never seen UTC's QB this weekend before on film. It took about two series to figure out what he was doing. You prepare and make adjustments.

I'm not challenging Wofford had less information than later opponents. That is the case with every team in week 1. I'm saying Furman had some inherent disadvantages too that you don't ever highlight.

[Reign of Terrier]

Every team does that to some degree in week 1. Ayers said they had even seen the two point play on film, so he clearly has some idea of what Furman was going to do.

Furman had never seen UTC's QB this weekend before on film. It took about two series to figure out what he was doing. You prepare and make adjustments.

I'm not challenging Wofford had less information than later opponents. That is the case with every team in week 1. I'm saying Furman had some inherent disadvantages too that you don't ever highlight.

I don't disagree with that assessment, but my salient point was that Wofford held Furman to season lows in at least scoring *in spite of that disadvantage relative to other teams.* Wofford didn't have film of Furman and played a great defensive game. Every team now has film of what Furman's going to do and they still can't stop them as well as Wofford did.

In FCS play, Western is averaging 43 ppg. Wofford held them to 28. Furman in FCS play is averaging 39. Wofford held them to 23.

[BearDownMU]

Top 10 teams are supposed to be national championship contenders. Does anyone here think Wofford is really in that conversation? I don't.



You think all of the Top 10 are national championship contenders?

And, honestly, just to be fair to my tiny Porch Yapping friends from Sparkle City, people kinda said the same thing last year and they ended up one TD in OT away from the Final Four.

[woffordgrad94]

Youngterrier, I know you are nervous because it's probably time for you to get neutered soon but I'm not trying to insult your club.

That said, Woffy had an OT win over WoCo, 2 one point wins and a 3 point win. The Terriers are in the Top 10 because they started high and haven't lost. When they do , they'll drop a good 10 spots in the rankings.

Top 10 teams are supposed to be national championship contenders. Does anyone here think Wofford is really in that conversation? I don't.

And before you attempt to throw another one of your daggers my way... no Richmond is not a title contender either. They may not even be a playoff team. I'll find a way to wake up tomorrow, even if they aren't.
I think I get your message loud and clear. It is, “Listen Wofford, since you didn’t beat all these teams on your schedule by 3 or 4 touchdowns, you are living on borrowed time and are about to lose. And you are not a national championship contender, so just get over it and shut up and live your lives.” Okay. There’s a chance of a loss to The Citadel. But judging by the way The Citadel has looked the past couple of weeks I doubt it. We very likely ain’t losing to ETSU, VMI, or Chattanooga. That just leaves Samford, and since we get them at home, I’d give us a bit of an edge in that one too. That just leave FBS South Carolina. Even the Lamecoots ain’t a lock to beat us- they lost to The Citadel last year and they ain’t exactly Bama. But so what if they do beat us. So what if they beat us by 60...they’re in the SEC and any result against them should not affect our FCS ranking. So Wofford now has a great shot to be unbeaten in FCS play or at the very least have only one loss in my opinion as three of the best teams in the conference so far (Furman, WCU, Mercer) are behind us and USC is a throwaway game for all intensive purposes. We are now pretty much a lock for the playoffs barring a slew on injuries or very unforseen circumstances. If that’s “borrowed time”, then give me borrowed time anyday.


Will Wofford win it all? I doubt it. History says no. But is Wofford a good team that can advance in the playoffs a few rounds? Absolutely. We did it last year. And besides, EVERYONE is really on “borrowed time” because everyone loses eventually. So it’s a dumb expression to use here.

And finally, I am NOT a “porch yapper”. I’m a pretty tough dude who’s kicked an ass or two in his day. I am NOT a man you want to get on the bad side of. I should change my name to GangstaTerria! Too bad the board won’t let me.

[Lehigh'98]

The Patriot League is a gross collective mismanagement of coaching and recruiting. In many cases you have scholarships given to kids who aren't D1 football players.

[PaladinFan]

I think I get your message loud and clear. It is, “Listen Wofford, since you didn’t beat all these teams on your schedule by 3 or 4 touchdowns, you are living on borrowed time and are about to lose. And you are not a national championship contender, so just get over it and shut up and live your lives.” Okay. There’s a chance of a loss to The Citadel. But judging by the way The Citadel has looked the past couple of weeks I doubt it. We very likely ain’t losing to ETSU, VMI, or Chattanooga. That just leaves Samford, and since we get them at home, I’d give us a bit of an edge in that one too. That just leave FBS South Carolina. Even the Lamecoots ain’t a lock to beat us- they lost to The Citadel last year and they ain’t exactly Bama. But so what if they do beat us. So what if they beat us by 60...they’re in the SEC and any result against them should not affect our FCS ranking. So Wofford now has a great shot to be unbeaten in FCS play or at the very least have only one loss in my opinion as three of the best teams in the conference so far (Furman, WCU, Mercer) are behind us and USC is a throwaway game for all intensive purposes. We are now pretty much a lock for the playoffs barring a slew on injuries or very unforseen circumstances. If that’s “borrowed time”, then give me borrowed time anyday.


Will Wofford win it all? I doubt it. History says no. But is Wofford a good team that can advance in the playoffs a few rounds? Absolutely. We did it last year. And besides, EVERYONE is really on “borrowed time” because everyone loses eventually. So it’s a dumb expression to use here.

And finally, I am NOT a “porch yapper”. I’m a pretty tough dude who’s kicked an ass or two in his day. I am NOT a man you want to get on the bad side of. I should change my name to GangstaTerria! Too bad the board won’t let me.

The original question was something along the lines of "I don't understand why people don't take Wofford as seriously as they should?" I don't think anyone is going to seriously dispute that Wofford is a good team. I mean, they are consistently ranked in the top 10 by pretty much everyone. For a national audience, though, top 10 teams should be doing more against their schedule than winning in the games' final seconds against seemingly every team they've played.

Now, it's a credit to Wofford that they are able to pull these games out, but national rankings are a beauty contest, and right now Wofford is winning ugly.

[PaladinFan]

I don't disagree with that assessment, but my salient point was that Wofford held Furman to season lows in at least scoring *in spite of that disadvantage relative to other teams.* Wofford didn't have film of Furman and played a great defensive game. Every team now has film of what Furman's going to do and they still can't stop them as well as Wofford did.

In FCS play, Western is averaging 43 ppg. Wofford held them to 28. Furman in FCS play is averaging 39. Wofford held them to 23.

Right. No one is debating Wofford has a good defense or that the defense played well against Furman. They were by far the toughest defense we've seen yet in FCS play.

The only way to settle this question is for these two teams to meet again in the post season. Furman will have had a full season of their offensive and defensive systems and Wofford will have all the film they want to consume. xthumbsupx

[kalm]

I think I get your message loud and clear. It is, “Listen Wofford, since you didn’t beat all these teams on your schedule by 3 or 4 touchdowns, you are living on borrowed time and are about to lose. And you are not a national championship contender, so just get over it and shut up and live your lives.” Okay. There’s a chance of a loss to The Citadel. But judging by the way The Citadel has looked the past couple of weeks I doubt it. We very likely ain’t losing to ETSU, VMI, or Chattanooga. That just leaves Samford, and since we get them at home, I’d give us a bit of an edge in that one too. That just leave FBS South Carolina. Even the Lamecoots ain’t a lock to beat us- they lost to The Citadel last year and they ain’t exactly Bama. But so what if they do beat us. So what if they beat us by 60...they’re in the SEC and any result against them should not affect our FCS ranking. So Wofford now has a great shot to be unbeaten in FCS play or at the very least have only one loss in my opinion as three of the best teams in the conference so far (Furman, WCU, Mercer) are behind us and USC is a throwaway game for all intensive purposes. We are now pretty much a lock for the playoffs barring a slew on injuries or very unforseen circumstances. If that’s “borrowed time”, then give me borrowed time anyday.


Will Wofford win it all? I doubt it. History says no. But is Wofford a good team that can advance in the playoffs a few rounds? Absolutely. We did it last year. And besides, EVERYONE is really on “borrowed time” because everyone loses eventually. So it’s a dumb expression to use here.

And finally, I am NOT a “porch yapper”. I’m a pretty tough dude who’s kicked an ass or two in his day. I am NOT a man you want to get on the bad side of. I should change my name to GangstaTerria! Too bad the board won’t let me.

This is what also might creating some doubt. Chatty is way down and the the Citadel is on a two game skid which (fair or not) diminishes the conferences luster bit. Mercer played Auburn and Wofford close but also lost to ETSU. Furman might be better than advertised but also finishes with a tough slate and few remember the last time they were good. WCU has a solid offense, but are statistically terrible on the other side of the ball. The fact you claim these are "3 of the best" is not a ringing endorsement of narrow wins...at least perceptually at this point in the season.

[PaladinFan]

This is what also might creating some doubt. Chatty is way down and the the Citadel is on a two game skid which (fair or not) diminishes the conferences luster bit. Mercer played Auburn and Wofford close but also lost to ETSU. Furman might be better than advertised but also finishes with a tough slate and few remember the last time they were good. WCU has a solid offense, but are statistically terrible on the other side of the ball. The fact you claim these are "3 of the best" is not a ringing endorsement of narrow wins...at least perceptually at this point in the season.

I think most would agree that Furman is a lot better than anticipated.

I won't get too far ahead of myself, as this is still very much a rebuilding year for the Paladins. The fan base is ecstatic though, because we are finally watching a football team that looks like Furman football again.

[ElCid]

This is what also might creating some doubt. Chatty is way down and the the Citadel is on a two game skid which (fair or not) diminishes the conferences luster bit. Mercer played Auburn and Wofford close but also lost to ETSU. Furman might be better than advertised but also finishes with a tough slate and few remember the last time they were good. WCU has a solid offense, but are statistically terrible on the other side of the ball. The fact you claim these are "3 of the best" is not a ringing endorsement of narrow wins...at least perceptually at this point in the season.

I scratch my head. More good teams in the conference results in loss of luster overall.....? We lost to Samford and Mercer. Two good teams. Not great but good. Mercer has been on the edge of breakthrough for a while. Samford could be great still, we will see. The Citadel might have lost some luster after those games, but not the conference. UTC has been walloped a couple times now by conference foes. They did lose to UTM so that one game might qualify as conference luster lost, but you can't say that losing to conference foes diminishes the conference. Furman did not bat an eye at Colgate, and played a close game against Elon, who has now turned heads.

As you said, this may be an eye test for peoples memories and perceptions, but not for results based on this year's games. And I think that is what we should always look at. There are many teams living off reputation instead of the W/L column. That disease is not limited to the SOCON. I could name a few teams that are living off reputation in the CAA, Big Sky and Southland.

As far as the SOCON goes, last year it was The Citadel and UTC who controlled things until Wofford came out of nowhere in time for the playoffs as a dark horse. This year it looks like Wofford and WCU are hot and Furman is a conference dark horse of sorts. Maybe a dark horse no more. Simply using recent reputation as a gauge is always suspect.

[Reign of Terrier]

Everyone doesn't seem to be taking Samford seriously. They are overanalyzing a close win over a very good D2 team, that was only close because Samford slept on them in the second half and a close win over a kind of good Kennesaw State team.

What's interesting to me is that Samford is only averaging about 30 points a game against FCS competition. You'd think it would be much higher.

When talking about the Championship race, you can't leave out Samford, because if they win out they are co-champs (at least)

[PaladinFan]

Everyone doesn't seem to be taking Samford seriously. They are overanalyzing a close win over a very good D2 team, that was only close because Samford slept on them in the second half and a close win over a kind of good Kennesaw State team.

What's interesting to me is that Samford is only averaging about 30 points a game against FCS competition. You'd think it would be much higher.

When talking about the Championship race, you can't leave out Samford, because if they win out they are co-champs (at least)

Paraphrasing Bomani Jones' rant about the Falcons, "Samford is not to be trusted."

Samford has as much talent as anyone. They'll find ways to lose complete head scratchers and tend to fade late in the season. Until they stop doing that, I'm always going to be on the fence with them.

Incidentally, you could have knocked me over with a feather in the preseason if you'd told me by Week 6 Furman would be outpacing Samford's offense and would continue to do so in a week Furman played at UTC and Samford played VMI.

[kalm]

I scratch my head. More good teams in the conference results in loss of luster overall.....? We lost to Samford and Mercer. Two good teams. Not great but good. Mercer has been on the edge of breakthrough for a while. Samford could be great still, we will see. The Citadel might have lost some luster after those games, but not the conference. UTC has been walloped a couple times now by conference foes. They did lose to UTM so that one game might qualify as conference luster lost, but you can't say that losing to conference foes diminishes the conference. Furman did not bat an eye at Colgate, and played a close game against Elon, who has now turned heads.

As you said, this may be an eye test for peoples memories and perceptions, but not for results based on this year's games. And I think that is what we should always look at. There are many teams living off reputation instead of the W/L column. That disease is not limited to the SOCON. I could name a few teams that are living off reputation in the CAA, Big Sky and Southland.

As far as the SOCON goes, last year it was The Citadel and UTC who controlled things until Wofford came out of nowhere in time for the playoffs as a dark horse. This year it looks like Wofford and WCU are hot and Furman is a conference dark horse of sorts. Maybe a dark horse no more. Simply using recent reputation as a gauge is always suspect.

I don't disagree. Like I said, it's a perceptual thing and fans and voters sometimes don't do their homework and hold on to traditional programs or recent success.

[Reign of Terrier]

My opinion on rankings in general is that they're all relative and there so many caveats when it comes to FCS football (lots of teams with no scholarships, reduced scholarships, who don't participate in the playoffs so they have a small sample size of comparable opponents) and the fact that all teams with exception of those in Montana and the Dakotas are in a media market shadow so very few people/coaches see all the games in their own conference, let alone nationally.

This creates an information deficit that's cataclysmic compared to the FBS. Thankfully, there's something of an empirical criteria for playoff eligibility (have to play in a conference with a certain amount of teams to get an autobid, have to have a minimum amount of D1 wins, etc) that's so comprehensive that there's very little debate about who gets in/out (arguably the field is too big) so it's inconsequential. But when it comes to day-to-day rankings, people over-invest in SOS.

As we were saying earlier in this thread, the Big Sky, CAA and Socon are all within the margin of error of each other. The MVFC may be a better overall conference, but I think if you take out NDSU and the second place team any given year, the rest of the conference is even with the others.

To put it in math terms, the best teams in the Big Sky/CAA/Socon are probably clustered together in terms of how good they are, but their overall conference strength is lower than the MVFC, whereas the MVFC itself has all but one or two teams clustered together. My hot take is that at the bottom, the MVFC isn't as good as they usually are this year.

Looking at the rankings though, I think it's NDSU, JMU and everyone else chasing them.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The transformation of SoCon fans into Patriot League-style apologists is near-complete and has been very entertaining to read.

[Reign of Terrier]

unlike the CAA, I couldn't tell you the last time a Socon team not named VMI lost to a patriot league team

[Lehigh'98]

unlike the CAA, I couldn't tell you the last time a Socon team not named VMI lost to a patriot league team

1998 Lehigh 20 Wofford 0 :)

[Reign of Terrier]

1998 Lehigh 20 Wofford 0 :)

To completely honest, I knew about that one, I just lied for rhetorical effect.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1998 Lehigh 20 Wofford 0 :)

2000 was a dominant win too. Wofford was much better that year. The PL-SoCon don't play enough...

[BearDownMU]

And finally, I am NOT a “porch yapper”. I’m a pretty tough dude who’s kicked an ass or two in his day. I am NOT a man you want to get on the bad side of. I should change my name to GangstaTerria! Too bad the board won’t let me.

The rarest of wildlife photos. This shot captured while all three were simultaneously between yaps. A photographic feat, indeed!

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26267&stc=1

[KPSUL]

unlike the CAA, I couldn't tell you the last time a Socon team not named VMI lost to a patriot league team

Considering how little the SoCon and PL teams play, don't you think that argument is a bit contrived?

[Reign of Terrier]

2000 was a dominant win too. Wofford was much better that year. The PL-SoCon don't play enough...

The latter point I can agree on

[woffordgrad94]

The rarest of wildlife photos. This shot captured while all three were simultaneously between yaps. A photographic feat, indeed!

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26267&stc=1
Awwwwwwwww...so cute! I want them all! And of course the last part of my post was really just a joke. I’m probably about as far from “gangsta” as one can get!

[UNHWildcat18]

Truly think people are underestimating the CAA. While I admit some are unproven/overrated it's laughable having them anywhere but first or second behind the MVFC. A Delaware team with not a great passing attack gave JMU a good game. An ETSU team that beat mercer and played el cid close got its teeth kicked in 52-10. i wish the CAA played more games vs soconn. Just like how the MVFC are playing Big Sky teams(rather one sided so far)

[SCPALADIN]

Every team does that to some degree in week 1. Ayers said they had even seen the two point play on film, so he clearly has some idea of what Furman was going to do.

Furman had never seen UTC's QB this weekend before on film. It took about two series to figure out what he was doing. You prepare and make adjustments.

I'm not challenging Wofford had less information than later opponents. That is the case with every team in week 1. I'm saying Furman had some inherent disadvantages too that you don't ever highlight.

Having watched every snap of every Furman game this season, it's also clear that we only threw about 1/2 the playbook at Wofford. I'd LOVE to have another shot at them.

[Reign of Terrier]

Truly think people are underestimating the CAA. While I admit some are unproven/overrated it's laughable having them anywhere but first or second behind the MVFC. A Delaware team with not a great passing attack gave JMU a good game. An ETSU team that beat mercer and played el cid close got its teeth kicked in 52-10. i wish the CAA played more games vs soconn. Just like how the MVFC are playing Big Sky teams(rather one sided so far)

The Citadel game was a lot closer than it should have been (Citadel outgained the Bucs 400something yards to less than 200) and the citadel is down this year. If Mercer proves to be a 6-5 team or greater this year, arguably the ETSU game is the biggest upset of the year). I wouldn't do any handwaving about stomping ETSU, they aren't at full FCS level in terms of the quality of players they need to be competitive. Their average loss last year in Socon play was 30 points. They won 2 games, yes, and they pulled an upset already this year, but every win they have in Socon play is by definition an upset.

That's not to say they aren't improving (they are) as they have a viable passing game, but in Socon play they have yet to play a viable defense outside of the Citadel (and even the Citadel has some question marks). But if you're asking me whether or not a top 5 team smacking ETSU says anything about the Socon or CAA you have another thing coming.

[wapiti]

Purpose of this post not meant to troll. Just finished voting in this week's poll. Why are these 3 conferences so far down this year?

I could see that sort of thing happening in 1 of these conferences ...or two ... but 3 major (if you want to consider the Patriot major) FCS conferences? Very odd.

Patriot is not a major.

[kalm]

Truly think people are underestimating the CAA. While I admit some are unproven/overrated it's laughable having them anywhere but first or second behind the MVFC. A Delaware team with not a great passing attack gave JMU a good game. An ETSU team that beat mercer and played el cid close got its teeth kicked in 52-10. i wish the CAA played more games vs soconn. Just like how the MVFC are playing Big Sky teams(rather one sided so far)

I have the CAA #2 but yes, the amount of games against the Patriot, NEC, MEAC, and Ivy cloud things up a bit as ususal and the Patriot is way down this year which doesn't help. JMU goes without saying, Elon has a couple of decent OOC wins, and UNC has the nice one against GS. I might have missed another or two but in general, lots of question marks. With Albany, Nova, UD, and SB it's lack of offense. For Richmond, it's defense. UNH, Elon , and JMU seem to be the only balanced teams on both sides of the ball.