Socon Week 7 pick em and power rankings

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 3-2 today. Wofford wanted it more and I doubted Mercer. Here's where I have at after this week. Numbers in parenthesis indicates how many wins they need to become playoff eligible against number of D1 games.

1) Wofford (2 of 6) - Now in the driver's seat after today's epic performance
2) Western Carolina (3 of 6) - Still in a position to get to the playoffs for the first time in awhile.
3) Samford (3 of 5) - Was the winner in this year's episode of "Brother vs. Brother"
4) Furman (4 of 5) - Manhandled the Mocs.
5) Mercer (4 of 5) - Got their first win vs. The Citadel
6) ETSU (5 of 5) - Cut a promo against Ro(bert)Mo(rris)
7) The Citadel (5 of 6) - Great start marred by two straight losses
8) Chattanooga (OUT) - Saw their playoff chances die today.
9) VMI (OUT) - Another week, another loss.

Predictions
VMI @ Furman - Paladins get a relatively easy win
ETSU @ Western Carolina - This one's for you, catamount man
Chattanooga @ Mercer - Bears avenge last year's beating
Wofford @ The Citadel - Terriers make it 2-for-3 in the space of a year

[Reign of Terrier]

1. Wofford: Defense wins championships. I would be very surprised if we didn't at the least make the playoffs
2. Western Carolina: Great Great Offense. I think they'll make the playoffs. Their defense has problems though.
3. Samford: A solid win at VMI today
4. Furman: They're one of the hottest teams in the conference. The problem is, their starting QB got hurt today
5. Mercer: a dark horse playoff contender. They got upset against ETSU, but they can still make a run for the playoffs behind a solid defense and a great running game
6. Citadel: I think their defense is suspect and their offense needs to score more. Make or break game against Wofford in Charleston.
7. ETSU: They have a great great passing game, but they can't run the ball worth anything.
8. Chattanooga: They can't run the ball either (they are worse than ETSU, I didn't think that was possible), and their freshmen QB looked decent today but the OL can't protect him either. On top of all that, their defense is still very, very poor.
9. VMI: still a very bad football team

VMI @ Furman. Furman rolls
ETSU @ WCU. Western rolls against a defense not near Wofford's talent.
Chattanooga @ Mercer. I would be surprise if this is close after the third quarter, but if it is, Chatt may win.
Wofford @ Citadel. There's more pressure on the Citadel than Wofford to come out and perform. With that said, they're capable and they'll be motivated to avenge that playoff loss. Having said that, Wofford's offense is quietly improving over the course of the season and I think the Citadel's rush defense is suspect. Perhaps the fact that both teams can replicate the option at full speed in practice will offset that, but I think Wofford wins by two scores in a defensive struggle (think, 24-10)

[bonarae]

Furman
Western Carolina
Mercer
Wofford

Sent from my LG-H870DS using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

Re: Blazejowski.

Coach Hendrix said he had maybe a "slight sprain." During the 4th Q he was on the exercise bike and was walking around with ice on his knee. Hendrix said he probably could have gone back in.

My take is that Furman takes a wait and see approach. Fortunately for the Paladins, the weakest team on the schedule, VMI, is next on the docket. Never take an opponent lightly, but if there was a game where you needed to rest your starting QB, that'd be the one.

[PaladinFan]

UTC reminded a lot of their teams from a number of years ago. Most athletic team in the conference, all sorts of talent, but disorganized and soft up front. Furman basically ran full back dive at them for 40 plays and pushed them around all night on both sides of the ball.

I expect they'll get the ship righted at some point. They are too talented to suck. I'm just glad they are in the rear view mirror before they figure things out.

[Smitty]

ETSU @ WCU. Western rolls against a defense not near Wofford's talent.

Giving your defense a lot of credit considering you still had 28 points scored against you and a couple throws away from even more. Which I blaming the weather!

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the fundamental problem with UTC is that their OL is bad. Their lucky their new QB didn't get rattled tonight. He looked good though.

[Reign of Terrier]

Giving your defense a lot of credit considering you still had 28 points scored against you and a couple throws away from even more. I'm blaming the weather!

28, 7 of which came on a short field, and an overall points per drive efficiency of about 40%, our defense did fine. Giving up 350ish yards to a team that averages over 500 and holding their run game at half the yardage they average isn't anything to sneeze at.

Both teams played in the weather, and Wofford dropped more balls. We forced turnovers etc etc. You can do the ifs and buts game all you want, but both teams made mistakes due to the weather. At this point it's a matter of statistics that we were best defense y'all played. Our performance was comparable and only slight not-as-good as Hawaii in terms of yards per rush, pass, and completion. But we were easily better than the FCS competition. I'm not insulting you at all, if anything it's a complement that on an "off" day y'all score 28 and get 350 yards of offense. That's probably more than most teams average.

[longtimemocfan]

UTC reminded a lot of their teams from a number of years ago. Most athletic team in the conference, all sorts of talent, but disorganized and soft up front. Furman basically ran full back dive at them for 40 plays and pushed them around all night on both sides of the ball.

I expect they'll get the ship righted at some point. They are too talented to suck. I'm just glad they are in the rear view mirror before they figure things out.

The Defensive line is good, They did look lost out there today. Lot of differences going from the 4-2-5 to a 3-4. The responsibility is more on the linebackers and we sure didn’t get it against a good TO team. We were missing 2 starting linebackers today and were just not that deep at that position anyway. Furman as good as anyone in the league on offense. The only weakness I see is your pass defense.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Furman is a 7-4 team. Which is good. I don't think they'll run the table with the rest of their schedule. Samford and Western have the capability to match them stride for stride on the offensive end and Mercer may well give them problems. That would still make them a playoff team, but I really don't want to play them again, so I hope they finish 6-5

[gofurman]

I think Furman is a 7-4 team. Which is good. I don't think they'll run the table with the rest of their schedule. Samford and Western have the capability to match them stride for stride on the offensive end and Mercer may well give them problems. That would still make them a playoff team, but I really don't want to play them again, so I hope they finish 6-5

7-4 would be ASTOUNDING for such a young team with 1) all new schemes and 2) all new coaches and 3) some key injuries. 4-3 now running a 3-4. Best receiver is out. Three linebackers out. We are playing 18-20 freshman ... Just based on that number of freshman we should be getting manhandled

6-5 Furman would be pretty scary for the future for other SoCon teams honestly ... For reasons I posted in the line above plus considering the prior team was senior loaded and won..3 games w prior coaches. To take a 3 win team and get to 5/6 wins in the first year ( including a 1 pt loss to top five Woff and 3 point loss to top ten Elon ) is phenomenal.

[PaladinFan]

I think Furman is a 7-4 team. Which is good. I don't think they'll run the table with the rest of their schedule. Samford and Western have the capability to match them stride for stride on the offensive end and Mercer may well give them problems. That would still make them a playoff team, but I really don't want to play them again, so I hope they finish 6-5

As, I've said, I've seen enough this year that if Furman doesn't win another game I'll feel really good about the future and direction of the program.

I don't think any team left on the schedule is going to out talent Furman or push them around. We probably won't run the table, but I think we'll have a pretty good shot to beat everyone.

[cx500d]

Furman
Western Carolina
Mercer
Wofford

[FUGameBreaker]

Yep hoping Blaze is ok, hold him out for vmi and hopefully he is ready to go against mercer in 2 weeks

[FUGameBreaker]

I think Furman is a 7-4 team. Which is good. I don't think they'll run the table with the rest of their schedule. Samford and Western have the capability to match them stride for stride on the offensive end and Mercer may well give them problems. That would still make them a playoff team, but I really don't want to play them again, so I hope they finish 6-5

I would take that for sure.
FU vs MEAC team in first round, then get another crack at that 2 point conversion at Wofford in 2nd round! :)
Heck I would love another shot at Elon as well!

[Mocs123]

Elon looked like a really bad loss for Furman at the time, but they have proven to be a pretty good football team.

[FurmanWins!!]

PJ Blazejowski coming in 3rd in overall QB efficiency rating, right below easton stick at ndsu. Get healthy young man we need you
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/individual/8

[Reign of Terrier]

If you take away FBS teams and ranked teams, Furman is 3-0. They could have been 5-1 including wins against ranked teams with one or two more plays bouncing their way.

[wcugrad95]

I know there is a long way to go, but given that so many teams have to play each other between the most likely playoff contenders (Wofford, WCU, Samford, Furman) and the guys who still have outside chances (Mercer, Citadel, and even ETSU), how many teams do you guys think will get playoff nods? I think if you lose 3 SoCon games you probably aren't going to make it. The league has a 12-12 OOC record, and still have several FBS games to go in the last 2 weekends of the season. We don't have any OOC games to hang our hats on, and I expect that we end up with several 2 and 3 conference loss teams.

[FUGameBreaker]

What I really like is how these FU kids have been in every game for the last 10 against FCS competition and really fought hard to get better

FU last 10 FCS games:

Beat ETSU by 45
Beat VMI by14
Lost to Wofford by 7
Beat WCU by 28
Lost to Mercer by 3
Lost to Wofford by 1
Lost to Elon by 3
Beat Colgate by 31
Beat ETSU by 21
Beat UTC by 24

You can really see how this program is turning the corner, even in those loses they were against good FCS teams and we had a chance to win each of them.

[FUGameBreaker]

I know there is a long way to go, but given that so many teams have to play each other between the most likely playoff contenders (Wofford, WCU, Samford, Furman) and the guys who still have outside chances (Mercer, Citadel, and even ETSU), how many teams do you guys think will get playoff nods? I think if you lose 3 SoCon games you probably aren't going to make it. The league has a 12-12 OOC record, and still have several FBS games to go in the last 2 weekends of the season. We don't have any OOC games to hang our hats on, and I expect that we end up with several 2 and 3 conference loss teams.


Fortunately the playoff field expansion I feel allows any SoCon team at 7-4 to make the field

[Reign of Terrier]

It will, that's why I'm rooting for a 6-5 Furman

[Reign of Terrier]

I know there is a long way to go, but given that so many teams have to play each other between the most likely playoff contenders (Wofford, WCU, Samford, Furman) and the guys who still have outside chances (Mercer, Citadel, and even ETSU), how many teams do you guys think will get playoff nods? I think if you lose 3 SoCon games you probably aren't going to make it. The league has a 12-12 OOC record, and still have several FBS games to go in the last 2 weekends of the season. We don't have any OOC games to hang our hats on, and I expect that we end up with several 2 and 3 conference loss teams.

I'd say we get 3 in. The only way I see 4 in is if Mercer or Furman goes on a run and I'm not sure if Western or Samford will both lose to one of those teams (which will need to happen). My money would be on Furman, but I really really don't want to see them again

[kdinva]

1) Wofford
2) WCU
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) ETSU
8) UTC
9) VMI


VMI 17 @ Furman 37
ETSU 14 @ WCU 38
UTC 20 @ Mercer 31
Wofford 24 @ The Citadel 17

[PaladinFan]

It really has been impressive what the new staff has done in Greenville. For the last five seasons, Furman has been one of, if not the worst, offensive football team in the SoCon. In fact, 3 of the last 5 seasons Furman finished dead last in total offense and routinely one of the worst rushing attacks:

2016 (4th)
2015 (8th)
2014 (8th)
2013 (9th)
2012 (6th)

Really an impressive turnaround in just one season.

[World]

Wofford - 52
The Citadel - 13

[wcugrad95]

Fortunately the playoff field expansion I feel allows any SoCon team at 7-4 to make the field

In 2015 WCU was 7-4, had 2 SoCon losses, and only other losses were to SEC schools - Western did not make the playoffs. In 2017, I am really scared that same kind of scenario could play out. If we go 7-5 and 5-3 in conference, we could easily be on the outside looking in again. Seems crazy, but I think for Western to feel comfortable at all we HAVE to get to 8-4 (again 2 FBS losses) and 6-2 in conference. That is why yesterday's OT loss to Wofford stung so bad - I bet we drop in the polls a lot more than losing in OT on the road to the #5 team in the country deserves, and it makes it that much harder to get back into that top-25 conversation without winning 8 games. I have no doubt the drop in the polls will be bigger than any rise in the polls will be if we beat ETSU this coming weekend.

The SoCon could easily see possibly a 2-loss co-champion, and another 2 teams at 5-3. In that scenario, the only 2 who would feel pretty comfortable would be the co-champs (in my opinion).

[Reign of Terrier]

If Wofford scores 50 on the Citadel (or anyone) just give us the Socon trophy.

[Mocs123]

If we play the option against the Terriers like we played it against Furman, you very well may score 50+ on us. After Huesman's defenses playing option teams pretty well, we did not play disciplined football yesterday.

[ElCid]

1) Wofford
2) WCU
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) ETSU
8) UTC
9) VMI


That was mine last week, and this coming week as well. I hate being right.

[ElCid]

If Wofford scores 50 on the Citadel (or anyone) just give us the Socon trophy.

He is just trying to get a rise out of Citdog. Nobody scores 50 on us this year. Probably not even Clemson. If we combine for 50 next week, I would be surprised. Massey's total is 42.5. But you just never know.

[Catamount87]

In 2015 WCU was 7-4, had 2 SoCon losses, and only other losses were to SEC schools - Western did not make the playoffs. In 2017, I am really scared that same kind of scenario could play out. If we go 7-5 and 5-3 in conference, we could easily be on the outside looking in again. Seems crazy, but I think for Western to feel comfortable at all we HAVE to get to 8-4 (again 2 FBS losses) and 6-2 in conference. That is why yesterday's OT loss to Wofford stung so bad - I bet we drop in the polls a lot more than losing in OT on the road to the #5 team in the country deserves, and it makes it that much harder to get back into that top-25 conversation without winning 8 games. I have no doubt the drop in the polls will be bigger than any rise in the polls will be if we beat ETSU this coming weekend.

The SoCon could easily see possibly a 2-loss co-champion, and another 2 teams at 5-3. In that scenario, the only 2 who would feel pretty comfortable would be the co-champs (in my opinion).

What got us in 2015 and 2014 was that we did not play a full D1 schedule. Each of those seasons we had a win against a D2 school. That means we had 6 D1 wins which is the minimum allowed for playoff consideration. Had we played and won against a lower FCS team then we would have greatly improved our chances of making the playoffs. This is why we had Davidson and Gardner-Webb on the schedule rather than a Mars Hill or Catawba.

[Mocs123]

That's smart for WCU. Davidson isn't much better than Mars Hill or Catawba but they are considered D1.

[kdinva]

That's smart for WCU. Davidson isn't much better than Mars Hill or Catawba but they are considered D1.

Catawba (5-1 so far) would crush Davidson.....

[NorthChuckSouth]

VMI @ Furman - 42-7
ETSU @ Western Carolina - 24-21
Chattanooga @ Mercer - 35-13
Wofford @ Citadel - xcoffeex

[woffordgrad94]

1) Wofford- The Terriers are back as my top dog again; I feel bad for having doubted them. The proved themselves against a very good WCU team.
2) WCU- The Catamounts have an excellent shot at the playoffs.
3) Samford- Another team that should qualify for the postseason.
4. Furman- Probably a year away from the playoffs, but I wouldn’t want Wofford to face them again.
5. Mercer- Steady progress...
6. The Citadel- Trending downward. Need a win over Wofford to right the ship. But it’ll be tough...
7. ETSU- don’t overlook them
8. Chattanooga- As my teacher put on my Spanish test, “Que paso?”
9. VMI- blazing trainwreck

Wofford 31, The Citadel 21—higher scoring than some think
WCU 42, ETSU 27
Mercer 30, Chattanooga 13
Furman 48, VMI 10

[Catamount87]

That's smart for WCU. Davidson isn't much better than Mars Hill or Catawba but they are considered D1.

Honestly, I think that Mars Hill and Catawba were better teams and better competition than Davidson. Remember back to 2015, Mars Hill gave y'all quite a scare with y'all finally winning 44-34. We'd beaten them the week before 42-14 but they didn't go quietly.


Back to subject at hand...


Power Rankings
1. Wofford - Stayed on top of the hill
2. WCU - Showed that even on an off day they're tough
3. Samford - May have been overlooking VMI by playing down to the competition
4. Furman - Abused the Mocs further
5. ETSU - Unimpressive win with 2 blocked and 1 missed FG on offense
6. Mercer - Big win against the faultering coastal dogs
7. The Citadel - The bus wheels are going flat, they were held to just 201 yards rushing
8. UTC - What's worse than a dumpster fire
9. VMI - This is worse than a dumpster fire


Predictions
VMI @ Furman - Dins pad the stats and further their chance for playoff consideration
ETSU @ WCU - Payback time
UTC @ Mercer - Bears enjoy a scrimmage
Wofford @ The Citadel - Coastal dogs wheels go completely flat

[FCSfan]

Elon looked like a really bad loss for Furman at the time, but they have proven to be a pretty good football team.


Agreed.....but Elon isn't in the top 10 (fixed it for "gofurman")

[PaladinFan]

Agreed.....but Elon isn't in the top 10 (fixed it for "gofurman")

No, they aren't.

That was a game Furman would like to have back. They spotted the Phoenix three touchdowns, stormed back, and committed some stupid penalties late that probably cost them the win.

That loss was widely lampooned at the time, but it's pretty clear the Elon is a heckuva lot better than most people assumed they were. I don't think they were world beaters, though. I've seen them better. I've seen them worse.

[FCSfan]

1. Wofford - O still inconsistent but steadily improving. D starting to show it's teeth
2. WCU - Legitimate playoff team that can beat anyone. D improving
3. Samford - One of the scariest O's in FCS. Defense remains their Achilles heel
4. Furman - Hottest team in the league. Hope their senior QB is ok
5. Mercer - Talented as anyone but IMO the folks in Macon are seeing what the folks in Travelers Rest saw a few years back.
6. Citadel - Still a scary team and have no quit in them. Not experiencing the fortune of last year
7. ETSU - Still a year away but nobody's doormat on game day
8. UTC - Something amiss here. Hope they can turn it around for the future
9. VMI - Long row to hoe in Lexington, VA
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________

Furman
Western
Mercer
Wofford

P.S. - I sincerely hope "youngterrier" has a good physical therapist available because he types ALOT!

[Terrier19]

...

[wcugrad95]

Catawba (5-1 so far) would crush Davidson.....

As one of my Cat-brethren already posted, I agree that playing Mars Hill or similar to me is pretty much the same (or even better competition) than some of the other non-scholly schools. But in a season when you scheduled 2 SEC teams offsetting with 2 "smaller" schools is a smart thing to do. Of course the smarter thing is to try and only have 1 of those "money games" but WCU needed financial help after getting rid of the last coaching staff. We have played lots of "big boy" teams in the past 4 or so years like Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina, North Carolina, etc. (more than once we had 2 of those games in a single season). I think WCU has figured it out after those two seasons of not getting in, and I would expect to see lots of Pioneer-league teams on the schedule to even-out the FBS games. That still doesn't change the fact that WCU at 7-4 in 2015 would have had (in my opinion) the same resume had that been a win against Davidson or Stetson or the like rather than Mars Hill. Just my opinion.

[FCSfan]

No, they aren't.

That was a game Furman would like to have back. They spotted the Phoenix three touchdowns, stormed back, and committed some stupid penalties late that probably cost them the win.

That loss was widely lampooned at the time, but it's pretty clear the Elon is a heckuva lot better than most people assumed they were. I don't think they were world beaters, though. I've seen them better. I've seen them worse.

I have come to realize over many years of playing, coaching and spectating that any win against any one is a good win and a loss to anyone sucks!

[JayMYou]

Citadel should join the Patriot League.

[Terrier19]

I have come to realize over many years of playing, coaching and spectating that any win against any one is a good win and a loss to anyone sucks!


BINGO!!!!!

[PaladinFan]

I have come to realize over many years of playing, coaching and spectating that any win against any one is a good win and a loss to anyone sucks!

On the coach's show yesterday, Clay Hendrix was asked who the team to beat in the SoCon was.

He said, "VMI."

That's the mentality you have to have. Beat the team in front of you.

[Terrier19]

On the coach's show yesterday, Clay Hendrix was asked who the team to beat in the SoCon was.

He said, "VMI."

That's the mentality you have to have. Beat the team in front of you.

That is Wofford's philosophy....handle business each week and let the outside noise discuss how aesthetic the UGLY WINS are......

[OpTimeGuy]

I am not entirely sure what some of you guys see at ETSU. I see some folks with them as high as #5. This is what a see. A team without a running a game. Rushed for over one hundred yards in two games...one of those DII Limestone. Vs. RMU we had 53 total rush yards, only 10 yards rushing in the first half. We had 26 vs. The Citadel, 22 vs. Furman and 57 vs. JMU. Don't get me wrong...we are improved and has been said by a lot of folks we are not the doormat of the SoCon. I see only one more win for my Bucs and that is vs. VMI. 4 Wins on the season was about what I expected. Stinson is out, but the running attack was no better when he was there other than vs. Limestone.

We should have put up more than 30 points against RMU...had every opportunity and could only come away with field goals. This is a team that is steadily improving, but something has to be done with the running game or we will be back at the "accepting mediocrity" that was so prevalent the last time we had FB at ETSU. Maybe that is where my rant is coming from. Honestly we are about where I expected. I guess I didn't expect the running game to be so pathetic.

Still yet, these are my rankings without further comment:

1. Wofford
2. WCU
3. Samford
4. Furman
5. Mercer
6. The Citadel
7. UTC
8. ETSU
9. VMI

[wcugrad95]

1. Wofford - by the slimmest of margins over WCU right now
2. WCU - by the same slimmest of margins over Samford right now
3. Samford - Will be really interesting if they keep winning and beat Wofford
4. Furman - clearly a team ahead of schedule and 7+ wins is possible
5. Mercer - lots of talent, and like Wofford tend to play lots of close games
6. The Citadel - will be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out, they can go higher than this
7. ETSU - they need to prove the Mercer game wasn't a fluke. Good passing game, mediocre running game. Give up 50+ points in their 2 road games to date.
8. UTC - way too much talent to be down here, but this season has probably already gotten away from them
9. VMI - will probably play somebody really tough and ***possibly*** pull off some kind of upset, but can't see more than 1 conference win (if any)

[FCSfan]

On the coach's show yesterday, Clay Hendrix was asked who the team to beat in the SoCon was.

He said, "VMI."

That's the mentality you have to have. Beat the team in front of you.

Without question

[walliver]

Power rankings:
1) Wofford - wins are wins
2 and 3 are a tossup
2) WCU - they beat Sammy earlier
3) Samford - didn't blow out VMI as badly as expected, but a letdown after last week was not unexpected.
4) Furman - still have El Cid, Sammy and Western to go, but playing well now.
5) Mercer - played well
6) The Citadel - good defenses can make an option look bad, but the bullpup offense has looked bad on its own the last two weeks
7) ETSU - still a dangerous team
8) Chattanooga - I expected middle-of-the-pack in Arth's first year, but not this disaster.
9) VMI - some things never change

This week:
VMI at Furman - This game could get ugly fast, and horsies win 62-13
ETSU at WCU - Coming off a tough loss, the Cants should bounce back with a vengeance, but sometimes those games leave you with a hangover. The Mountain Pirates keep it close for 2 1/2, but kitties pull away 31-10.
Chattanooga at Mercer - Cubbie fans don't remember the pre-Huesman Mocs and will be ready for this game. Teddy's win 35-12.
Wofford at The Citadel - Probably a low scoring game, but Wofford pulls out a 24-22 win.
Sammy easily handles BYE.

[tenNesseeCat]

Catawba (5-1 so far) would crush Davidson.....

Probably VMI as well, and they'd probably give UTC a good game.

Picks:
VMI @ Furman
ETSU @ WCU
UTC @ Mercer
Wofford @ The Citadel

Power:
Wofford
WCU
Samford
Furman
Mercer
The Citadel
ETSU
UTC
VMI

[Terrier19]

POWER RANKINGS

1. Wofford (Some Folks complain about ugly losses.....not Wofford...they thrive in the brightest moments at crunch time.....Winners of 11 of their last 12 games-only loss during that span was a double OT Loss @ Youngstown STate in the quarterfinals of the Playoffs.....Wofford is more dangerous than ever with a more explosive perimeter attack and the ability to pass the ball unseen at Wofford in recent history, and as the New D Coordinator is settling in the new job...Wofford steadily getting better as the season goes on.....

2. WCU (Very good and dangerous Western team....a playoff team and will be a tough out for anyone...needs to shore up their defense to make deep playoff run noise....but wow what an explosive offense)......

3. Samford (Typical Sammy team....uber loaded with talent....explosive offense......GReat QB......NEed to figure out how to run the ball effectively to compliment that high octane passing game)

4. Furman (REal solid group on both sides of the ball...very young team that will continue to get better and could surprise some folks late in the season.......)

5. Mercer (Another solid team.....Hard to differentiate them and Furman.....could easily switch them.....That will be a heckuva game.......)

6. The Citadel (Not sure about the Dip at Citadel......They were absolutely demoralized against an eager Sammy squad chomping at the bit.....last week had to sting losing to MErcer....Citadel is very similar to Wofford in that it operates on a schedule....if they get behind schedule it is very difficult to get out....MERcer jumped on them early last week and Citadel uncharacteristically passed the ball 31 Times only completing 14 of them....that is not the Citadel gameplan / recipe for victory....Good news for them is that they are playing another Triple Option team this week...gives them a huge opportunity to salvage their season.....A 3rd loss in a row may sink the Citadel ship.....All guns will be blazing this weekend....I anticipate Citadel's best effort this week....and it will need it.

7. UTC (Very difficult to explain this team.....Lots of talent and skill....and yes a coaching change but this fall was not seen by anyone...there is plenty of talent on this roster and just need some positive bounces to go their way.....

8. ETSU (Team is competitive.....struggles to effectively run the ball and doesnt get enough stops on defense....the program is getting better but is still a year away IMO.....

9. VMI (Keydets are having a diffcult year.....this will be the case all season long....)

[GoCats1985]

Long time lurker of this forum jumping in for a first post. I still think there will be quite a few shake ups left to go this season.

Picks:
Furman
WCU
Mercer
The Citadel

Power:
Wofford - Still finding the Ws
WCU - Defense gaining confidence
Samford - Tough team that I think will stay consistent
Furman - Starting to look like Furman of the past
Mercer - Still some good wins to be had
The Citadel - Don't think the losing streak will be long lived
ETSU - While near the bottom, I think they can pull some tricks out of the bag
UTC - Yikes. Didn't expect the wheels to completely fall off the bus this year
VMI - Double yikes

[World]

The Citadel now ranked behind the Ivy League's Dartmouth in today's latest AGS Poll:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197111-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-6-10-09-2017

[FUBeAR]

Mercer - Talented as anyone but IMO the folks in Macon are seeing what the folks in Travelers Rest saw a few years back.

So...

1) A dominating victory at home over a former A-Sun rival in all sports?
2) A thrilling 1 point loss to the #5 nationally-ranked undefeated & consensus projected SoCon Champion?
3) A thrilling ‘take-it-down-to-the-last-4-minutes’ loss to an SEC Team ranked in the FBS Top 10?
4) A dominating victory at home over a Team that has been competitive in the SoCon in its prior 2 seasons & which had previously been a nettlesome opponent for the Bears?
5j A relatively easy wire-to-wire victory on the road in a well-known-to-be-extremely-hostile environment over the #17 nationally-ranked defending back-to-back SoCon Champions who had not lost consecutive SoCon games in 3 years & who had PREVIOUSLY been the deliverer of 3 of Mercer’s most heartbreaking 1-2 point losses since joining the SoCon in 2014?
6) A Fanbase that is unbelievably excited to be favored this week over a traditional (as far as they know) SoCon & FCS Power, who the Bears upset last time this Team came into Macon riding high &ranked #3?
7j A Defense that is good as any in FCS?
8) Consistent Special Teams play? (whose only real mistake so far this season that comes to my mind was a low XP Snap that proved to be VERY costly? (In fact, if that snap’s on target, you and I aren’t making these 2 posts))
9) An Offense that has the ability to HAMMER 2 of the toughest run defenses in FCS (Woffy & CIT) for decent yardage or take the top off of a weaker secondary (VMI) while they break in a Freshman QB and an O-Line with 3 new starters?
10) A Team that (like that Team in Travelers Rest) should be ranked right now?

You’re right! I DO see all of that!! Ain’t it BEAUTIFUL?

[citdog]

The Citadel now ranked behind the Ivy League's Dartmouth in today's latest AGS Poll:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?197111-AGS-Poll-Results-Week-6-10-09-2017

The Citadel STILL ahead of cute little for fun ivy league team dartmouth in the actual poll...

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs

[World]

The Citadel STILL ahead of cute little for fun ivy league team dartmouth in the actual poll...

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs

Sorry, but don't understand

are you actually saying the what you call the "actual" poll, the STATS poll, is considered more accurate than the AGS poll?

seriously?

[citdog]

Sorry, but don't understand

are you actually saying the what you call the "actual" poll, the STATS poll, is considered more accurate than the AGS poll?

seriously?

You didn't say that. Neither did I. One is used by the schools and posted on the NCAA website and other media outlets and one isn't.

[gofurman]

Sorry, but don't understand

are you actually saying the what you call the "actual" poll, the STATS poll, is considered more accurate than the AGS poll?

seriously?

Real question here - what is the poll that helps w the playoff selection? STATS, AGS, another ??? Or which is most correlated with playoff selection?? Thanks for the help here !@!

[PaladinFan]

The Citadel STILL ahead of cute little for fun ivy league team dartmouth in the actual poll...

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/polls.asp?div=fcs

That's also the poll that has Colgate with more votes than Furman, who has a better record and crushed them on their home field.

[SCPALADIN]

Real question here - what is the poll that helps w the playoff selection? STATS, AGS, another ??? Or which is most correlated with playoff selection?? Thanks for the help here !@!

I find it easiest to just go to the Composite...

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[Cat-in-GA]

Power rankings:
1) Wofford - Continues to find a way to win
2) WCU - Has to run the table in the conference from here on out. The season begins now
3) Samford - Could win the rest of their conference games.
4) Furman - Didn't expect this team to be here this year.
5) Mercer - Solid middle of the conference
6) The Citadel - This is not their year for the playoffs, but they have a good young team
7) ETSU - Inconsistent
8) Chattanooga - Not playing up to the level of their talent
9) VMI - Waiting on basketball season

This week:
VMI at Furman - No contest
ETSU at WCU - Glad WCU is at home for this game. They gifted ETSU the game last year and need to take it back this year with a vengence.
Chattanooga at Mercer - No contest
Wofford at The Citadel - Will be another close win by Wofford

[FCSfan]

So...

1) A dominating victory at home over a former A-Sun rival in all sports?
2) A thrilling 1 point loss to the #5 nationally-ranked undefeated & consensus projected SoCon Champion?
3) A thrilling ‘take-it-down-to-the-last-4-minutes’ loss to an SEC Team ranked in the FBS Top 10?
4) A dominating victory at home over a Team that has been competitive in the SoCon in its prior 2 seasons & which had previously been a nettlesome opponent for the Bears?
5j A relatively easy wire-to-wire victory on the road in a well-known-to-be-extremely-hostile environment over the #17 nationally-ranked defending back-to-back SoCon Champions who had not lost consecutive SoCon games in 3 years & who had PREVIOUSLY been the deliverer of 3 of Mercer’s most heartbreaking 1-2 point losses since joining the SoCon in 2014?
6) A Fanbase that is unbelievably excited to be favored this week over a traditional (as far as they know) SoCon & FCS Power, who the Bears upset last time this Team came into Macon riding high &ranked #3?
7j A Defense that is good as any in FCS?
8) Consistent Special Teams play? (whose only real mistake so far this season that comes to my mind was a low XP Snap that proved to be VERY costly? (In fact, if that snap’s on target, you and I aren’t making these 2 posts))
9) An Offense that has the ability to HAMMER 2 of the toughest run defenses in FCS (Woffy & CIT) for decent yardage or take the top off of a weaker secondary (VMI) while they break in a Freshman QB and an O-Line with 3 new starters?
10) A Team that (like that Team in Travelers Rest) should be ranked right now?

You’re right! I DO see all of that!! Ain’t it BEAUTIFUL?

No offense Mr. FU Bear,
Just listening to purple and orange voices of whose opinions i trust. Certainly does not mean that the Grizzly Lamb is on the spit just yet.
Have enjoyed multiple trips to Macon and will again I'm sure.

[citdog]

That's also the poll that has Colgate with more votes than Furman, who has a better record and crushed them on their home field.

furman sucks

[FUBeAR]

No offense Mr. FU Bear,
Just listening to purple and orange voices of whose opinions i trust. Certainly does not mean that the Grizzly Lamb is on the spit just yet.
Have enjoyed multiple trips to Macon and will again I'm sure.

Well, stop listening to PaladinFan / Jackal. You know you shouldn't trust him. He's a Lawyer, you know?

[FCSfan]

Well, stop listening to PaladinFan / Jackal. You know you shouldn't trust him. He's a Lawyer, you know?

Ouch.....valid point though

[gofurman]

I find it easiest to just go to the Composite...

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm


but does one most closely correlate with the teams chosen for the playoffs.?

[citdog]

but does one most closely correlate with the teams chosen for the playoffs.?

AGS puts it's poll out BEFORE the selection. It is usually right on...

[FUGameBreaker]

Dins gotta win the next 3, if we do that we will be ranked in all polls heading into the bye week without question

[wcugrad95]

Dins gotta win the next 3, if we do that we will be ranked in all polls heading into the bye week without question

I'd say win the next 2 and you are in. Furman would be 5-3 at that point, and can easily point to the failed 2-pt conversion, an FBS loss, and the last-second FG by a now-ranked Elon as your only losses. Mercer would have a similar case if they were to beat you guys. The loser of the Mercer/FU game will be 4-4 and have an uphill battle. Of course, I hope my Cats beat both of you down the stretch!

In the end, I hope that the SoCon has at least 4 teams with legitimate playoff shots. I think between Wofford, WCU, Samford, Furman, and Mercer we can get there (and even Citadel is not out of it right now), but the problem is most of those teams still have multiple games against each other. Assuming the things hold true to the current power rankings and we all get through this weekend, Mercer finishes @Furman, Samford, @WCU, then they take a week "off" by traveling to Tuscaloosa! WCU finishes with Furman, @Citadel, Mercer, @UNC and you guys finish Mercer, @WCU, Citadel, @Samford. None of us have an easy path, and a Citadel win over Wofford this weekend or an upset of any of us turns the whole thing on its head.

[PaladinFan]

I'd say win the next 2 and you are in. Furman would be 5-3 at that point, and can easily point to the failed 2-pt conversion, an FBS loss, and the last-second FG by a now-ranked Elon as your only losses. Mercer would have a similar case if they were to beat you guys. The loser of the Mercer/FU game will be 4-4 and have an uphill battle. Of course, I hope my Cats beat both of you down the stretch!

In the end, I hope that the SoCon has at least 4 teams with legitimate playoff shots. I think between Wofford, WCU, Samford, Furman, and Mercer we can get there (and even Citadel is not out of it right now), but the problem is most of those teams still have multiple games against each other. Assuming the things hold true to the current power rankings and we all get through this weekend, Mercer finishes @Furman, Samford, @WCU, then they take a week "off" by traveling to Tuscaloosa! WCU finishes with Furman, @Citadel, Mercer, @UNC and you guys finish Mercer, @WCU, Citadel, @Samford. None of us have an easy path, and a Citadel win over Wofford this weekend or an upset of any of us turns the whole thing on its head.

Mercer is going to have to run the table in the SoCon to get to 7 wins. That's a tall order.

Mercer arguably has the more impressive win than Furman (the Citadel). Furman doesn't have the somewhat embarrassing loss to ETSU.

[FurmanWins!!]

I am just glad we have VMI this week, still will need to play good football to win but better than playing anybody else in the league of course. Gives us chance to hopefully get some guys healthy before this stretch run, got some big games coming up on the horizon and going to be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

Coach Clay Hendrix turn around:

Getting our feet wet

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/911413288839335936


Clicking on all cylinders

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/916072558692323330
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/915179575113650176

[Toby]

The latest Massey FCS Composite is interesting to say the least:

Wofford 8
Samford 20
Furman 22
WCU 24
Mercer 28
Citadel 35
ETSU 56
UTC 72
VMI 114

That is quite a bunching in the 20-28 rankings.

[PaladinFan]

I'm not sure who the video guy for Furman is, but he does a superb job. These videos have the same quality as a lot of "preseason hype videos," but he puts them together every couple of days.

Watching those clips, though, you see how much of an electric player Thomas Gordon is. Hard to believe Furman has notched 3 40+ point games in a row for the first time in 12 years, and has done so without arguably the best player on the offense.

[FurmanWins!!]

I'm not sure who the video guy for Furman is, but he does a superb job. These videos have the same quality as a lot of "preseason hype videos," but he puts them together every couple of days.

Watching those clips, though, you see how much of an electric player Thomas Gordon is. Hard to believe Furman has notched 3 40+ point games in a row for the first time in 12 years, and has done so without arguably the best player on the offense.


I agree about the video producer, hopefully they keep using them for the rest of the season and beyond, good stuff!

And agree about Thomas Gordon, should make us even more dynamic once he returns now that others have proven themselves as well.

[FUBeAR]

I'm not sure who the video guy for Furman is, but he does a superb job. These videos have the same quality as a lot of "preseason hype videos," but he puts them together every couple of days.

If I'm not mistaken, I seem to recall more than a few posts from you and/or your alter ego in recent years about Mercer over-marketing themselves, using too much video/too many videos, etc. My impression was that you felt this type of promotion was rude and crass. You seem to like these now though.

I do too. I think they're great. Furman has really upped their Social Media / Video presentation game this year and I LOVE IT!
Just like the previous ones from Mercer that you criticized. They were great and I loved them too...

Same shoe...different foot, I guess.

...or I could be mistaken.

[PaladinFan]

I agree about the video producer, hopefully they keep using them for the rest of the season and beyond, good stuff!

And agree about Thomas Gordon, should make us even more dynamic once he returns now that others have proven themselves as well.

Notably, Gordon and Ak Olusanya are both slated to return from injury by mid-October. I would not necessarily expect to see either of them against VMI, but I anticipate both may be back for the Mercer game next week.

So, Furman has been on a nice roll despite not having arguably their best player on both sides of the ball.

[FUBeAR]

The latest Massey FCS Composite is interesting to say the least:

Wofford 8
Samford 20
Furman 22
WCU 24
Mercer 28
Citadel 35
ETSU 56
UTC 72
VMI 114

That is quite a bunching in the 20-28 rankings.

The exciting thing is that 6 or maybe even 7 of those Teams still have a shot at the Playoffs and 3 or 4 of them are going to make it. I don't think we'll see 5 SoCon Teams in THIS year...although the Top 5 will all be better than many Teams that ARE in the Playoffs.

And the even more exciting thing is that within the 4 Team 'bunching' you called out, there has only been 1 common game - WCU over Samford. So...

#20 still has to play #22 and #28
#22 still has to play #20, #24, and #28
#24 still has to play #22 and #28
#28 still has to play #20, #22, and #24

#8 only has #20 left...so, while they YAPPED about that schedule at the beginning of the year, it sure played out well for them. I don't think (in their heart of hearts) they really want to see Furman or Mercer again. They won't say that on here, but we non-Yappers know the truth.

Hoping #35 cuts #8 this Saturday and makes it a little interesting for #20 to take a nice run at them the following week. If that works out, maybe we could end up with a 5 or 6 or 7 way tie for 1st place. Not sure if that could happen (haven't and not going to do the math)...but it's fun to think about.

[PaladinFan]

If I'm not mistaken, I seem to recall more than a few posts from you and/or your alter ego in recent years about Mercer over-marketing themselves, using too much video/too many videos, etc. My impression was that you felt this type of promotion was rude and crass. You seem to like these now though.

I do too. I think they're great. Furman has really upped their Social Media / Video presentation game this year and I LOVE IT!
Just like the previous ones from Mercer that you criticized. They were great and I loved them too...

Same shoe...different foot, I guess.

...or I could be mistaken.

That is a completely over generalization and just wrong. I have no issue with marketing your program.

Example: Furman creates a video, puts it on social media. Cool.

Mercer coordinates a touchdown celebration after a pass to an offensive linemen against a team they have no business playing, puts a camera right in front of it, immediately puts it on twitter, retweets it to ESPN saying "HEY LOOK AT ME! SEE? ATMOSPHERE!"

Alternatively, they put their recruiting class on the marquee at Times Square. Why? I have no idea.

I am, by the way, not the only one that feels that way. Other posters on here have mentioned it. I have a close friend who worked in the athletics department at Mercer who rolls her eyes every time they talk about it. Haters gonna hate, I guess.

[FUGameBreaker]

Yep if citadel knocks off wofford this week things will get crazy

[PaladinFan]

Yep if citadel knocks off wofford this week things will get crazy

I can see it.

UTC still has Mercer, Citadel, Samford, and Wofford. Just my opinion, but that team is too daggum talented to suck the entire season. They are going to figure it out against someone before the year's over.

[FUBeAR]

That is a completely over generalization and just wrong.

http://i58.photobucket.com/albums/g246/sey115/tumblr_mftz77HaFM1qmegxno5_r1_250_zps1d39a95c.gif

[Terrier19]

Yep if citadel knocks off wofford this week things will get crazy

Anything is possible..and this will be a good game.....I like us to continue the ball rolling this weekend however...

[Reign of Terrier]

If Wofford wins our next two, a socon title may not be certain, but it's very very likely. I'm not saying we can definitely or easily beat Chattanooga, VMI and ETSU, but it will be known that we have the capability and we won't have any games to look forward to (South Carolina maybe?). We would only need to win two of those three to clinch it.

Again, this is a big, speculative hypothetical, but my point is that the Socon championship may only be in doubt for the next two weeks.

[Terrier19]

If Wofford wins our next two, a socon title may not be certain, but it's very very likely. I'm not saying we can definitely or easily beat Chattanooga, VMI and ETSU, but it will be known that we have the capability and we won't have any games to look forward to (South Carolina maybe?). We would only need to win two of those three to clinch it.

Again, this is a big, speculative hypothetical, but my point is that the Socon championship may only be in doubt for the next two weeks.

To that extent....beat Citadel and Sammy.....that would leave us the ability to take an unforseen loss over the last 3 (which we will be considerable favoroites in), and we would still be the SoCon champs if Sammy or Western won all the way out even.....Handle business and the table sets itself up.....I love this team and this season......Special group

[PaladinFan]

If Wofford wins our next two, a socon title may not be certain, but it's very very likely. I'm not saying we can definitely or easily beat Chattanooga, VMI and ETSU, but it will be known that we have the capability and we won't have any games to look forward to (South Carolina maybe?). We would only need to win two of those three to clinch it.

Again, this is a big, speculative hypothetical, but my point is that the Socon championship may only be in doubt for the next two weeks.

If you had to handicap the biggest game for Wofford, its next week's contest against Samford.

Right now there are 3 teams with 1 loss. Wofford has wins over 2 of them. Furman/Samford and Furman/WCU still have to play, so you know all three of them cannot finish with one loss. If Wofford loses to Samford, that's when the dastardly tiebreaker scenarios become highly relevant.

The Terriers could theoretically find themselves 9-2 with losses to Samford and USC, and finish third.

Again, lots of football to be played.

[PaladinFan]

To that extent....beat Citadel and Sammy.....that would leave us the ability to take an unforseen loss over the last 3 (which we will be considerable favoroites in), and we would still be the SoCon champs if Sammy or Western won all the way out even.....Handle business and the table sets itself up.....I love this team and this season......Special group

If Wofford loses, and Western wins out, Wofford would be a SoCon co-champ. Still a champ, but not an outright title.

They would have the autobid in that scenario, though the Catamounts would be every bit the champion Wofford was.

[BearDownMU]

Alternatively, they put their recruiting class on the marquee at Times Square. Why? I have no idea.



you know we were on the front page of USAToday sports because of that, right? And we're also mentioned in about 30 other national publications. Any guesses on what that kind of media exposure would cost if you had to buy it?

Hint: About 50 times more than buying billboard time in Times Square

[BearDownMU]

I have a close friend who worked in the athletics department at Mercer who rolls her eyes every time they talk about it.

Hope she doesn't work in marketing. Because she clearly doesn't understand it. lol

[Terrier19]

If Wofford loses, and Western wins out, Wofford would be a SoCon co-champ. Still a champ, but not an outright title.

They would have the autobid in that scenario, though the Catamounts would be every bit the champion Wofford was.

ahhhhh...I see your point....fair enough...that could very well happen....but in that instance would you say that Western would be "every bit the champion" that Wofford was seeing that Wofford beat them head to head.......and is there no head to head results when determining the Champ?

[wcugrad95]

Posted in other thread, too. If Wofford loses to Samford and WCU and Samford win-out in conference, we end up with a 3 way tie. But way too much very tough football left to consider it right now. We'll know a lot in 2 weeks.

[Terrier19]

Posted in other thread, too. If Wofford loses to Samford and WCU and Samford win-out in conference, we end up with a 3 way tie. But way too much very tough football left to consider it right now. We'll know a lot in 2 weeks.

I see that is a possible scenario.....I just hope that we continue to stay out of that scenario by winning each week.......

[Reign of Terrier]

There's nothing wrong with sharing a conference championship (it's very common in FCS), especially when said champs have multiple losses. However, there's something really special about going undefeated and winning a conference champ.

Wofford's won 4 conference titles, but only one was undefeated/alone at the top.

That's what we should want.

[citdog]

There's nothing wrong with sharing a conference championship (it's very common in FCS), especially when said champs have multiple losses. However, there's something really special about going undefeated and winning a conference champ.

Wofford's won 4 conference titles, but only one was undefeated/alone at the top.

That's what we should want.

You are DAMN straight there is...

[Smitty]

you know we were on the front page of USAToday sports because of that, right? And we're also mentioned in about 30 other national publications. Any guesses on what that kind of media exposure would cost if you had to buy it?

Hint: About 50 times more than buying billboard time in Times Square

And I'm sure those who were curious went home and googled Mercer, saw it wasn't a P5 university, and went about their lives quickly forgetting that anything happened.

[walliver]

I'm not counting any future wins yet. I still have nightmares about a team that beat GSU in Statesboro and ASU in Boone, but stayed home with a 9-3 record after losing to VMI.

[SCPALADIN]

You are DAMN straight there is...

Beggars shouldn't be choosers. ;)

[PaladinFan]

You are DAMN straight there is...

Your boys could do everyone a favor and show up this weekend.

[Terrier19]

Your boys could do everyone a favor and show up this weekend.

nah.....

[PaladinFan]

And I'm sure those who were curious went home and googled Mercer, saw it wasn't a P5 university, and went about their lives quickly forgetting that anything happened.

Probably not quantifiable, but I would be surprised if it moved the needle one iota.

I am sure the number moves periodically and is probably skewed a bit by the grad programs, but Mercer reports that 88% of its student body is from Georgia. I never understood the logic in spending money putting your football team on a billboard in New York City when 9 out of 10 students at the university are from your home state.

Mercer, of course, doesn't have to concern itself with what I think. I am quite sure they do not.

[Reign of Terrier]

As someone who is graduating with a degree in Integrated Marketing Communication (God I hate dropping that here) in December, I can tell you that the only people who cared about the Times Square thing was 1) the Mercer recruits 2) their families and 3) the niche football fans at Mercer.

Overall, it was probably a colossal waste of money. If they recruited up there it wouldn't be, but a better tactic would have been to do that in an area they recruit that's similar (Atlanta being one)

[wcugrad95]

As you often hear, any publicity is good publicity. My daughter is at FAU, and I can tell you a coach like Lane Kiffen (or look at Harbaugh at Michigan) believe having your school talked about and getting some kind of exposure for just about any reason is better than not getting it. All of the SoCon schools need to have at least a little of that mentality to at minimum be a program that somebody has heard of. It helps with recruiting, it helps with name recognition that ****can**** help with pollsters, etc. You don't want to be on the front page for doing something wrong or getting in trouble, but small schools in FCS leagues should be looking for creative ways to get their names in the paper/on websites every chance they can.

[Reign of Terrier]

Eh, to the pollster point, the best thing you can do is just produce consistent teams. The stunts have minimal impact because the people who vote in polls have to follow FCS more than the average viewer of FCS football anyway. That's an advantage relative to FBS football where everyone sees their opinion as equal.

There are problems in the FCS in terms of how it's structured culturally (lack of media exposure) and as a football division (lots of teams who don't compete for the title still get ranked, lots of teams without the full scholarship allotment) but the way you game the system is not stunts like the times square thing

[BearDownMU]

Probably not quantifiable, but I would be surprised if it moved the needle one iota.

I am sure the number moves periodically and is probably skewed a bit by the grad programs, but Mercer reports that 88% of its student body is from Georgia. I never understood the logic in spending money putting your football team on a billboard in New York City when 9 out of 10 students at the university are from your home state.

Mercer, of course, doesn't have to concern itself with what I think. I am quite sure they do not.

I'm not going to have a philosophical discussion with you about why national editorial media exposure is important. Believe what you will.

However, I just had a good 15 minute conversation with both the President of Mercer and the Sr. VP of Advancement at the VMI game about exactly this. Mercer is heavy Georgia, certainly, however I don't think it's any kind of secret that a very large priority of President Underwood's since he walked in the door was expanding the national profile of the University. Since, we have now moved from the regional university classification in US news to the national university category. And the out of state student number is not only expanding in geography, but trending up. And enrollment is increasing as well overall, which could easily translate into increased application volume and even hard numbers from out of state, and the percentage mix of students wouldn't change, if local enrollment is growing as well. Either way, for the size of the investment, there is absolutely no downside. Also, these types of events are rarely looked at in a bubble, but rather as a part of a larger strategy. Which certainly appears to be paying off.

[FUBeAR]

I'm not going to have a philosophical discussion with you about why national editorial media exposure is important. Believe what you will.

However, I just had a good 15 minute conversation with both the President of Mercer and the Sr. VP of Advancement at the VMI game about exactly this. Mercer is heavy Georgia, certainly, however I don't think it's any kind of secret that a very large priority of his since he walked in the door. Since, we have now moved from the regional university classification in US news to the national university category. And the out of state student number is not only expanding in geography, but trending up. And enrollment is increasing as well overall, which could easily translate into increased application volume and even hard numbers from out of state, and the percentage mix of students wouldn't change, if local enrollment is growing as well. Either way, for the size of the investment, there is absolutely no downside. Also, these types of events are rarely looked at in a bubble, but rather as a part of a larger strategy. Which certainly appears to be paying off.

So...Could you possibly be saying that the Times Square Ads for Mercer's Football Recruiting Class were NOT placed in order to improve Mercer's Football Team's Ranking in certain polls?

https://dankennedy.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/cg-uoq3xaaab4wp.jpg

[BearDownMU]

As someone who is graduating with a degree in Integrated Marketing Communication (God I hate dropping that here) in December, I can tell you that the only people who cared about the Times Square thing was 1) the Mercer recruits 2) their families and 3) the niche football fans at Mercer.

Overall, it was probably a colossal waste of money. If they recruited up there it wouldn't be, but a better tactic would have been to do that in an area they recruit that's similar (Atlanta being one)

We did local billboards as well.

And, to be honest, for less than the cost of a really nice laptop computer, sure seems like the amount of national exposure from it made that minimal investment worthwhile.

I don't have your degree, I'm just working off of 20 years of business experience. And what that tells me is that the things like this:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/recruiting/2016/02/02/mercer-football-national-signing-day-times-square-new-york/79712920/

that came out of that relatively minor investment, was pretty darn cost justified. But I could be wrong. How much do you think front page USAToday Sports coverage is worth for a school like Mercer?

Furthermore, EVEN if I was wrong, and the editorial press alone wasn't worth the couple a grand spent on the Times Square thing, I saw how the kids and the families and the alumni reacted to it. It would have been worth it just based on that, to be honest. With all the things that schools at the mid major level spend (or don't spend, in most cases) money on, I fail to see how doing something unique and big and outside the box is a negative.

Again, just based on my limited 20 year business career, smaller organizations with less resources that choose to do things others haven't, won't, or don't in an effort to differentiate themselves tend to succeed more often. Even if individual initiatives don't yield the results that were projected, the ATTITUDE of being willing to try new and exciting things is an extremely beneficial component to limited resource DNA.

[wcugrad95]

I default back to basically almost all publicity is good publicity. That effort led to Mercer showing up on the front-page of the sports section of USA Today. If even only a blip-on the radar, landing on that is better than not landing on that. If 1 recruit saw it and it made a difference for that player, if 1 prospective student saw it and looked up Mercer who had never heard of the school before, if that one effort led to it being talked about on a message board many months later....

Seems like it was probably worth it.

[Toby]

I default back to basically almost all publicity is good publicity. That effort led to Mercer showing up on the front-page of the sports section of USA Today. If even only a blip-on the radar, landing on that is better than not landing on that. If 1 recruit saw it and it made a difference for that player, if 1 prospective student saw it and looked up Mercer who had never heard of the school before, if that one effort led to it being talked about on a message board many months later....

Seems like it was probably worth it.

That Furman fans are still moaning about this = PRICELESS.

[PaladinFan]

I'm not going to have a philosophical discussion with you about why national editorial media exposure is important. Believe what you will.

However, I just had a good 15 minute conversation with both the President of Mercer and the Sr. VP of Advancement at the VMI game about exactly this. Mercer is heavy Georgia, certainly, however I don't think it's any kind of secret that a very large priority of President Underwood's since he walked in the door was expanding the national profile of the University. Since, we have now moved from the regional university classification in US news to the national university category. And the out of state student number is not only expanding in geography, but trending up. And enrollment is increasing as well overall, which could easily translate into increased application volume and even hard numbers from out of state, and the percentage mix of students wouldn't change, if local enrollment is growing as well. Either way, for the size of the investment, there is absolutely no downside. Also, these types of events are rarely looked at in a bubble, but rather as a part of a larger strategy. Which certainly appears to be paying off.

I've raised that issue with them. I suspect the billboard was part of a larger strategy to expand the profile of the university nationally. I have long thought that was a mistake. I have told the university as much.

Mercer is a regional university. Most of their students are from Georgia. I expect those that are not from Georgia are predominately from Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina (at least that is what the reported numbers are, and in my personal experience of knowing a whole bunch of Mercer students).

That is not a black mark, of course. Furman, Wofford, and Samford are all regional universities. Yes, they draw from around the country in varying degrees, but by and large most of their students come from southern states and predominately from their home state. None of those four schools are Vanderbilt or Duke.

Mercer, especially in their grad programs, attempted to push this "national" profile. Specifically, they hired deans with academic pedigrees from fancy universities. I thought that was a mistake then, and believe it to be now. Recently, you've seen the law school in particular retreat from that approach, hiring a former Georgia Secretary of State to be the dean. That, to me, signaled at least some recognition that trying to plant Mercer's flag in DC and New York wasn't the best course, and Mercer instead hired a well connected individual where their students and alums are (Georgia). I think that is unequivocally the best course. Be who you are, not try to be what you are not.

I'm not surprised President Underwood takes that company line, though. I've heard Underwood speak half a dozen times, and most of those times he has exclusively talked about Mercer football and this perceived national profile. My impression is that is what he wants to stake his legacy on as President of the school.

I do think Mercer has done some good things in their marketing, lest it seem as though I am only negative. I think positioning yourself as "Middle Georgia's team" is a wise move. I think they have that unique capability. That, of course, falls in line with my general position that the University should be focused on marketing themselves to their local audience, not to some national audience that I do not believe actually exists.

[PaladinFan]

That Furman fans are still moaning about this = PRICELESS.

Yes, I'm a Furman fan. I also graduated from Mercer, lived and worked in Macon for a number of years, and was an adjunct professor at the university.

So, I would like to think I have more than enough background to form my own opinion about what the school does.

[walliver]

On the publicity topic, back in the early 90's, Wofford became dis-satisfied with D2. We could not maintain academic standards and still compete in the academic wasteland of D2 playing against teams with D-1 transfers and top players who didn't meet D-I standards. A committee was formed to decide whether to move to D-I/I-AA or D3. During their assessment, the committee was told by recruiters that the number of visitors to the Wofford booth at out-of-state college fairs was much in cities in which we had played athletic events, primarily basketball games. Our roundball performance told people nothing about the school, but the value of name recognition should not be underestimated. That type of publicity may be a little less important with the expansion of the internet and online rankings, although it wouldn't surprise me if Mercer's most prominent national attention came from beating Duke in March Madness 5 years ago.

The other reason we chose D-I was the sense that if the twerps at Davidson could do it, we could too (and play decent football at the same time). At the time, despite long ties to many Southern Conference teams, it was accepted that we would not be asked to join, and the official college statement on the move was that we would pursue a "like the Southern Conference, but not the Southern Conference". Now, it was obvious at the time that there was no conference like the Southern Conference that wasn't the Southern Conference, and fortunately a spot opened up a few years later.

[soconjohn5]

Video guy for Furman is Caleb Furrow...He does do a great job indeed.

[soconjohn5]

You know App State had some pretty good ads in Times Square after beating Michigan and receiving votes in the FBS Top 25...That was a free ad in Times Square as apart of the scrolling news.

[BearDownMU]

That, of course, falls in line with my general position that the University should be focused on marketing themselves to their local audience, not to some national audience that I do not believe actually exists.

Lol. You do understand the marketing is the process of promoting goods and services for the purpose of consumption, yes? So the marketing process would be how you create the audience you seek. Sorry, this get's funnier every time I read it. I just hear in my head "Why would you market to anyone except the people that already know about you?" Which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. If this was the attitude there would never be a new business created, ever.

Now, if you're saying Mercer never WILL be viable as a national university (like William & Mary, or Lehigh, or Pepperdine, or Villanova, or Rice) or never SHOULD be viable as a national university then you are well within your purview to advance that opinion. But, of course, nothing has any kind of audience until, well, you go and get it. Which, I think, is accomplished through several different mechanisms, one of which is marketing.

All that said, this is now a discussion about the strategic plan of the University, not really about the value gained from a really quite small investment in billboard in NYC. Which, I still advance, paid nice dividends.

[Reign of Terrier]

Having heard more of the story, Mercer's move with the Times Square thing gets a thumbs up from me.

Now back to Football

[PaladinFan]

Does not have a thing to do with Week 7, but I did see where someone (a GSU fan, I think) posted the Furman-Georgia Southern game from 2004. I imagine if you had a list of the top 5 SoCon games in the last 40 years, that contest would be on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxi2v3wzg8k

A second ranked GSU team led by Chaz Williams, Jermaine Austin, and a freshman receiver named Jayson Foster went into Greenville against third ranked Furman, led by Ingle Martin and Jerome Felton. Both teams also sported aggressive, big, and fast defenses.

For the nostalgic types, the video is also a good opportunity to remember what Paladin Stadium looked like with 17,000+ in attendance.

[citdog]

Does not have a thing to do with Week 7, but I did see where someone (a GSU fan, I think) posted the Furman-Georgia Southern game from 2004. I imagine if you had a list of the top 5 SoCon games in the last 40 years, that contest would be on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxi2v3wzg8k

A second ranked GSU team led by Chaz Williams, Jermaine Austin, and a freshman receiver named Jayson Foster went into Greenville against third ranked Furman, led by Ingle Martin and Jerome Felton. Both teams also sported aggressive, big, and fast defenses.

For the nostalgic types, the video is also a good opportunity to remember what Paladin Stadium looked like with 17,000+ in attendance.

Wonder when somebody will post the game where Ol Dingleberry Martin threw 5 picks against western carolina???

[PaladinFan]

Wonder when somebody will post the game where Ol Dingleberry Martin threw 5 picks against western carolina???

Good grief that was a long night.

I said for years that was the worst I had ever seen Furman play. Some games during the Fowler years easily supplanted that game, though.

[BearDownMU]

Does not have a thing to do with Week 7, but I did see where someone (a GSU fan, I think) posted the Furman-Georgia Southern game from 2004. I imagine if you had a list of the top 5 SoCon games in the last 40 years, that contest would be on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxi2v3wzg8k

A second ranked GSU team led by Chaz Williams, Jermaine Austin, and a freshman receiver named Jayson Foster went into Greenville against third ranked Furman, led by Ingle Martin and Jerome Felton. Both teams also sported aggressive, big, and fast defenses.

For the nostalgic types, the video is also a good opportunity to remember what Paladin Stadium looked like with 17,000+ in attendance.

Cam Newton at free safety!??! lol

[PaladinFan]

Cam Newton at free safety!??! lol

The original. Dude could play. Spent some time in the NFL with Atlanta and Carolina. Younger brother was starting QB for South Carolina a few years later.

In SoCon circles, of course, Cam Newton and Adrian Peterson are not Cam Newton and Adrian Peterson.

[gofurman]

The original. Dude could play. Spent some time in the NFL with Atlanta and Carolina. Younger brother was starting QB for South Carolina a few years later.

In SoCon circles, of course, Cam Newton and Adrian Peterson are not Cam Newton and Adrian Peterson.

whomever posted the note on Cam Newton was dumb arse. Not sure how many Mercer safeties have made the NFL ( I will guess ZERO) but that Cam Newton made the NFL as PaladinFan noted! Please send a of list Mercer safeties who have made the NFL.

And the comment on 'Dingleberry Martin' - sheesh. Would have to say Ingle Martin is better than ANY Citadel QB EVER. Started some at Florida... was in the NFL a year or so and I think could have made it but was drafted by Green Bay to play behind - get this - Brett Farve and Aaron Rodgers. SHeesh. Just as a trivia note, that has to be one of the top two NFL QB duos I can think of.

[BearDownMU]

whomever posted the note on Cam Newton was dumb arse. Not sure how many Mercer safeties have made the NFL ( I will guess ZERO) but that Cam Newton made the NFL as PaladinFan noted! Please send a of list Mercer safeties who have made the NFL.

Holy crap dude. I just thought it was funny Furman had a guy named Cam Newton because there is another guy you might see in the NFL from time to time ALSO NAMED CAM NEWTON. Triggered much?

[Reign of Terrier]

I think I've cracked the code (sorta) on Mercer and ETSU.

ETSU, as it's already been pointed out, is a good passing/offensive team, however they struggle when playing teams that are relatively efficient scoring on offense. To put things in perspective, ETSU has played two verifiable bad offenses this year, Robert Morris and Limestone. They won those games because their defense was able to hold them in check, so I won't focus on them. Instead, lets look at the 3 socon games they played and JMU, because those games show some things both ways.

ETSU upset Mercer and gave the Citadel a game. What Mercer and the Citadel have in common is relatively low-efficiency offense, probably both averaging scoring when they have the ball <40% of the time. Mercer probably has a better defense than the Citadel, but when you give a team more opportunities to hold the ball (with your offense being inefficient) it's no secret that you'll struggle. Citadel was much more efficient in the second half than first and was able to hold on to the victory, but Mercer let them back in and lost in OT.

Now, contrast that with how Furman and JMU played; both teams are very efficient scoring the ball against FCS competition, the eye test implies 40-45% is a bad day for either. Furman basically went up big early (scored on 8 of 12 possessions!) and was able to stay ahead, fighting off ETSU's comeback. JMU did what JMU does and scored at a similar rate, but played better defense than Furman, not letting ETSU rack up any points.

So the key to staving off ETSU is playing decent defense and being efficient when you have the ball.

In contrast, Mercer's problem is that they don't score nearly as efficiently against decent defenses (per possessions) than other teams in the Socon. Mercer quietly has the best defense in the conference when it comes to points per game, but when you control for OOC, they're about average. If their offense was better for more points per possession per game, they would be 5-1 right now I think.

My advice when trying to pick games in the future about these two in the future (I'll give an assessment of the Citadel after this week, but it's a similar story) is to compare the points per possession of each side of the ball. ETSU is actually an average offense if you give them more than 11 or so possessions a game, but if you can score points and limit the amount of possessions, they can be suppressed. But if you make mistakes and lose the turnover battle, you're in trouble.

For Mercer, it's the opposite + the fact that I think they are, in aggregate, more talented than ETSU. Because ETSU's can score if given enough possessions they are a threat to anyone they play. so the key to beating Mercer is, hold onto the ball and wait for a mistake.

In the context of this weekend's games, I don't think ETSU has the ability to match Western's offensive firepower/efficiency. Though they may well get more than 12 possessions with the ball, they don't have a run game and I think that plays to Western's advantage. ETSU's pass game is going to have to be at a high level to match Western blow for blow and I just don't see them doing that (similarly, Western will want to bounce back after last week and after ETSU beat them last year)

Mercer has a slightly less certain outcome. Chattanooga similarly has a very inefficient offense, except it's worse. Though I have no doubt Mercer's defense can force some stops, if Mercer is to win they need to limit possessions and score more efficiently. That's going to be hard, because Chattanooga has a decent defense at the least (albeit one that gets burnt out when their offense can't bail them out). Something has gone right for Mercer if they limit possessions to less than 12, but that may be a tall order. I'm inclined to pick Mercer, but the new Chattanooga QB puts an element of uncertainty in this game I'm not comfortable with.

[BearDownMU]

whomever posted the note on Cam Newton was dumb arse. Not sure how many Mercer safeties have made the NFL ( I will guess ZERO) but that Cam Newton made the NFL as PaladinFan noted! Please send a of list Mercer safeties who have made the NFL.

But, to answer your question, no safeties from our one graduating class that came to Mercer as a non-scholarship football players for a statup program made it to any NFL rosters. Lol.

Sorry I haven't memorized all of Furman's players from the early to mid 2000's (when my school didn't have a football team nor was in the SoCon) that played in the NFL for a couple of years. I'll study harder next time, lest I want to be berated again for someone not getting a joke.

[BearDownMU]

In contrast, Mercer's problem is that they don't score nearly as efficiently against decent defenses (per possessions) than other teams in the Socon. Mercer quietly has the best defense in the conference when it comes to points per game, but when you control for OOC, they're about average. If their offense was better for more points per possession per game, they would be 5-1 right now I think.

What do you mean here?

[PaladinFan]

I think I've cracked the code (sorta) on Mercer and ETSU.

ETSU, as it's already been pointed out, is a good passing/offensive team, however they struggle when playing teams that are relatively efficient scoring on offense. To put things in perspective, ETSU has played two verifiable bad offenses this year, Robert Morris and Limestone. They won those games because their defense was able to hold them in check, so I won't focus on them. Instead, lets look at the 3 socon games they played and JMU, because those games show some things both ways.

ETSU upset Mercer and gave the Citadel a game. What Mercer and the Citadel have in common is relatively low-efficiency offense, probably both averaging scoring when they have the ball <40% of the time. Mercer probably has a better defense than the Citadel, but when you give a team more opportunities to hold the ball (with your offense being inefficient) it's no secret that you'll struggle. Citadel was much more efficient in the second half than first and was able to hold on to the victory, but Mercer let them back in and lost in OT.

Now, contrast that with how Furman and JMU played; both teams are very efficient scoring the ball against FCS competition, the eye test implies 40-45% is a bad day for either. Furman basically went up big early (scored on 8 of 12 possessions!) and was able to stay ahead, fighting off ETSU's comeback. JMU did what JMU does and scored at a similar rate, but played better defense than Furman, not letting ETSU rack up any points.

So the key to staving off ETSU is playing decent defense and being efficient when you have the ball.

In contrast, Mercer's problem is that they don't score nearly as efficiently against decent defenses (per possessions) than other teams in the Socon. Mercer quietly has the best defense in the conference when it comes to points per game, but when you control for OOC, they're about average. If their offense was better for more points per possession per game, they would be 5-1 right now I think.

My advice when trying to pick games in the future about these two in the future (I'll give an assessment of the Citadel after this week, but it's a similar story) is to compare the points per possession of each side of the ball. ETSU is actually an average offense if you give them more than 11 or so possessions a game, but if you can score points and limit the amount of possessions, they can be suppressed. But if you make mistakes and lose the turnover battle, you're in trouble.

For Mercer, it's the opposite + the fact that I think they are, in aggregate, more talented than ETSU. Because ETSU's can score if given enough possessions they are a threat to anyone they play. so the key to beating Mercer is, hold onto the ball and wait for a mistake.

In the context of this weekend's games, I don't think ETSU has the ability to match Western's offensive firepower/efficiency. Though they may well get more than 12 possessions with the ball, they don't have a run game and I think that plays to Western's advantage. ETSU's pass game is going to have to be at a high level to match Western blow for blow and I just don't see them doing that (similarly, Western will want to bounce back after last week and after ETSU beat them last year)

Mercer has a slightly less certain outcome. Chattanooga similarly has a very inefficient offense, except it's worse. Though I have no doubt Mercer's defense can force some stops, if Mercer is to win they need to limit possessions and score more efficiently. That's going to be hard, because Chattanooga has a decent defense at the least (albeit one that gets burnt out when their offense can't bail them out). Something has gone right for Mercer if they limit possessions to less than 12, but that may be a tall order. I'm inclined to pick Mercer, but the new Chattanooga QB puts an element of uncertainty in this game I'm not comfortable with.

I think Mercer will go as far as their defense carries them. The offense has some talented pieces, but leans pretty heavily on their defense.

One area that both Mercer and Wofford excel in is turnover margin (both are +6). Turover margin is one of those stats that can sort of mask offensive inefficiencies. Both Mercer and Wofford are teams that really ride their defense.

ETSU has to figure out how to run the ball. Herink is a talented passer, but probably not talented enough to carry the team without a running game. Like UTC, the Bucs struggle running the ball, which allows defenses to exploit their offensive lines in the pass rush.

Furman combated ETSU in the same way they dealt with UTC. Shut down the run game, get a lead, and put the offense in a predictable down and distance.

[FUBeAR]

But, to answer your question, no safeties from our one graduating class that came to Mercer as a non-scholarship football players for a statup program made it to any NFL rosters. Lol.

Sorry I haven't memorized all of Furman's players from the early to mid 2000's (when my school didn't have a football team nor was in the SoCon) that played in the NFL for a couple of years. I'll study harder next time, lest I want to be berated again for someone not getting a joke.

I can help you with this, but my primary areas of expertise are Furman Players & Coaches, 1978 - 1985 and Mercer Players, 2012 - Present. I have a minor in SoCon Players from both of those eras with a bit broader base of knowledge in the latter period and some exceptional, but isolated depth in the earlier.

[Reign of Terrier]

What do you mean here?
When you take out the Jacksonville game and the game against Auburn. Admittedly, the Auburn performance is qualitatively good, but I have a general philosophy of not counting sub-D1 games or FBS games (regardless if they're good or bad) because they aren't helpful or predictive. When I "control for OOC" I'm taking out OOC because everyone plays a different OOC, with different levels of talents. We're at the point in the year where we have enough conference games to make assessments.

In this case, with OOC, Mercer's defense is averaging about 17 points per game, whereas in conference play they're at about 20 ppg. It's relevant because on first glance their defensive ppg is a touchdown better than Samford, Wofford, etc but when you look at conference games it's about the same.


I think Mercer will go as far as their defense carries them. The offense has some talented pieces, but leans pretty heavily on their defense.

One area that both Mercer and Wofford excel in is turnover margin (both are +6). Turover margin is one of those stats that can sort of mask offensive inefficiencies. Both Mercer and Wofford are teams that really ride their defense.

ETSU has to figure out how to run the ball. Herink is a talented passer, but probably not talented enough to carry the team without a running game. Like UTC, the Bucs struggle running the ball, which allows defenses to exploit their offensive lines in the pass rush.

Furman combated ETSU in the same way they dealt with UTC. Shut down the run game, get a lead, and put the offense in a predictable down and distance.

The difference between Mercer and Wofford offensively is that Wofford is more efficient with the ball and they turn the ball over less. Mercer's efficiency is certainly under 45% while Wofford's is over 50. Wofford has also only turned the ball over 4 times in 5 games, whereas Mercer turned the ball over 4 times against just Wofford. That indicates less efficiency on Mercer's part. (though FWIW I think Furman has the most efficient offense in the Socon, less so on the defense;))

I recognize that there are caveats to all of these points, that some points are pick 6's and if you take this play or that play out this outcome is different. I'm just looking at averages here, because we're half way done with the season and we can deduce some trend lines.

[BearDownMU]

I get what you are saying but not sure I can agree with it. Holding Auburn to 24 and forcing 5 turnovers certainly seems relevant to evaluating the defense. Also, Jacksonville is D1 FCS.

But, hey, it's your math.

[FurmanWins!!]

Does not have a thing to do with Week 7, but I did see where someone (a GSU fan, I think) posted the Furman-Georgia Southern game from 2004. I imagine if you had a list of the top 5 SoCon games in the last 40 years, that contest would be on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxi2v3wzg8k

A second ranked GSU team led by Chaz Williams, Jermaine Austin, and a freshman receiver named Jayson Foster went into Greenville against third ranked Furman, led by Ingle Martin and Jerome Felton. Both teams also sported aggressive, big, and fast defenses.

For the nostalgic types, the video is also a good opportunity to remember what Paladin Stadium looked like with 17,000+ in attendance.


Classic!

[gofurman]

Holy crap dude. I just thought it was funny Furman had a guy named Cam Newton because there is another guy you might see in the NFL from time to time ALSO NAMED CAM NEWTON. Triggered much?

sorry, long day. my mistake

[Reign of Terrier]

I get what you are saying but not sure I can agree with it. Holding Auburn to 24 and forcing 5 turnovers certainly seems relevant to evaluating the defense. Also, Jacksonville is D1 FCS.

But, hey, it's your math.

In math terms, the way you play against FBS is "noisy" more than it is a signal, just because of how different an atmosphere it is. Citadel lost to Chatt but beat Carolina, in 2008 Wofford played USC closer than App State and so on. All I'm saying is that if we're evaluating overall performance, it's better to look at conference competition because those are the most consistent variables. Everyone plays everyone. Jacksonville may be Division one, but they're also not full-scholarship. The same goes for Davidson. And Colgate (I think?). But if we're comparing OOC performances as if they are all equal, you'd think Mercer's offense is a lot more effective than it is. Heck, you'd say the same about the Citadel (The citadel is about +15 ppg better on offense when you factor in OOC).

So, when doing the math and trying to figure out a good predictive model, take OOC out.

[SU DOG]

Georgia Southern.,
Classic!

I sure remember that 2004 Furman Team. They played at Samford that year even though we weren't yet in the SoCon. They edged us 45-10, LOL. I also remember watching their Pittsburgh game, and I don't think I have ever seen a game whose outcome was anymore determined by the stripes than that one. The Paladins were totally robbed. I intended to watch just a part of that video, of FU vs GS, but wound up watching the entire game, and it sure is a classic. Just noticed also that our present D-Line coach was a starting DE for that Georgia Southern team. Glad you linked this.

[BearDownMU]

In math terms, the way you play against FBS is "noisy" more than it is a signal, just because of how different an atmosphere it is. Citadel lost to Chatt but beat Carolina, in 2008 Wofford played USC closer than App State and so on. All I'm saying is that if we're evaluating overall performance, it's better to look at conference competition because those are the most consistent variables. Everyone plays everyone. Jacksonville may be Division one, but they're also not full-scholarship. The same goes for Davidson. And Colgate (I think?). But if we're comparing OOC performances as if they are all equal, you'd think Mercer's offense is a lot more effective than it is. Heck, you'd say the same about the Citadel (The citadel is about +15 ppg better on offense when you factor in OOC).

So, when doing the math and trying to figure out a good predictive model, take OOC out.

Nah, no math for me. I'd rather just watch film and rely on my eyes. My preferred predictive model.

[PaladinFan]

Georgia Southern.,

I sure remember that 2004 Furman Team. They played at Samford that year even though we weren't yet in the SoCon. They edged us 45-10, LOL. I also remember watching their Pittsburgh game, and I don't think I have ever seen a game whose outcome was anymore determined by the stripes than that one. The Paladins were totally robbed. I intended to watch just a part of that video, of FU vs GS, but wound up watching the entire game, and it sure is a classic. Just noticed also that our present D-Line coach was a starting DE for that Georgia Southern team. Glad you linked this.

I had forgotten how physically imposing that Furman linebacker corps was. I cannot imagine what a QB thought looking across the line and seeing the 6'3 240 William Freeman staring back at him. That guy could cover some ground.

I recall that I gave Furman a very small chance of being competitive in that game. We were top five, but Georgia Southern had been completely steamrolling every one they played. In the seven games before playing Furman, GSU had been held under 40 points just once. They had scored over 50 at least 5 times. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Georgia_Southern_Eagles_football_team

I always sort of attributed some of Furman's ability to win that game late in that Furman played some 4 quarter games that season and faced some adversity. GSU never had. They never had to play a full game, run a two minute drill, play from behind, or manage the clock.

[SCPALADIN]

Georgia Southern.,

I sure remember that 2004 Furman Team. They played at Samford that year even though we weren't yet in the SoCon. They edged us 45-10, LOL. I also remember watching their Pittsburgh game, and I don't think I have ever seen a game whose outcome was anymore determined by the stripes than that one. The Paladins were totally robbed. I intended to watch just a part of that video, of FU vs GS, but wound up watching the entire game, and it sure is a classic. Just noticed also that our present D-Line coach was a starting DE for that Georgia Southern team. Glad you linked this.
Made the trip for that game. Yes, we were robbed. I must have had 20 people come up to me on the walk back to the car asking me who/what/where Furman was. It was also fun (sad?) listening to the local sports radio on the drive from the stadium calling for Pitt's coach, Walt Harris, to be fired.

[PaladinFan]

Made the trip for that game. Yes, we were robbed. I must have had 20 people come up to me on the walk back to the car asking me who/what/where Furman was. It was also fun (sad?) listening to the local sports radio on the drive from the stadium calling for Pitt's coach, Walt Harris, to be fired.

Of course, that Pitt team won the Big East and went to the Fiesta Bowl.

Harris was fired anyway.

[Catamount87]

Wonder when somebody will post the game where Ol Dingleberry Martin threw 5 picks against western carolina???

Martin wasn't the only one stinking it up. Furman also gave up 2 sacks, had a missed FG, lost a fumble and turned it over on downs, twice.

That was our crazy 9 game season when we went 5-4. That season was really the calm before the really dark period of Catamount football. Coach Briggs was battling cancer that fall and the Nicholls St game was cancelled because of hurricane Rita. The next season we open 2-0 with a convincing win over a ranked EKU and enter the rankings at #22. Then the injury bug starts, we lose 9 straight which included a payback beatdown by Furman. A study of the football program is initiated after the end of the 2006 season. To many of us, it was clear by this time that Briggs had lost control of the team. Coach Briggs would be let go in Nov 2007 after a disastrous 1-10 season.

[wcugrad95]

1. Wofford:
2. Furman:
3. Mercer:
4. Western Carolina:
5. Samford:
6. Chattanooga:
7. Citadel:
8. ETSU:
9. VMI:


VMI @ Furman
ETSU @ WCU
Chattanooga @ Mercer
Wofford @ Citadel

May come back and flesh some of this out...may not.

I really would like to see your top-25 now :)

[PaladinFan]

Martin wasn't the only one stinking it up. Furman also gave up 2 sacks, had a missed FG, lost a fumble and turned it over on downs, twice.

That was our crazy 9 game season when we went 5-4. That season was really the calm before the really dark period of Catamount football. Coach Briggs was battling cancer that fall and the Nicholls St game was cancelled because of hurricane Rita. The next season we open 2-0 with a convincing win over a ranked EKU and enter the rankings at #22. Then the injury bug starts, we lose 9 straight which included a payback beatdown by Furman. A study of the football program is initiated after the end of the 2006 season. To many of us, it was clear by this time that Briggs had lost control of the team. Coach Briggs would be let go in Nov 2007 after a disastrous 1-10 season.

My recollection was that 2004 season was one of the last times WCU had a pretty decent team for a long while.

[wcugrad95]

My recollection was that 2004 season was one of the last times WCU had a pretty decent team for a long while.

After that weird 5-4 season, we didn't have another winning season until 2014 when we had back-to-back 7 win seasons (and didn't make the playoffs either time).

[ElCid]

Lots of weird stuff happening. One good thing of Chatty and my Dogs being down though, is lots of other "fans" coming out of the woodwork all of a sudden.xeyebrowx Hard for me to prognosticate on the road without time or unlimited internet availability. I have changed my mind on UTC by moving them up a slot. I have a sneaky suspicion that they may come alive shortly.

1) Wofford
2) WCU
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) UTC
8) ETSU
9) VMI

VMI 14 at Furman 38 - no revelations here.

ETSU 20 at WCU 45 - likewise.

UTC 20 at Mercer 17 - upset comes out of nowhere, seemingly; but the Mocs have lots of talent.

Wofford 20 at The Citadel 13 - Wofford has had it mostly together and the Dogs haven't; but Dogs have not thrown in towel yet; turnovers or special teams could decide it; Dog's Defense not as bad as its appears last couple weeks. Dogs O needs a better scheme for currently available talent/experience...too inconsistent doing 100% business as usual.

[citdog]

Lots of weird stuff happening. One good thing of Chatty and my Dogs being down though, is lots of other "fans" coming out of the woodwork all of a sudden.xeyebrowx Hard for me to prognosticate on the road without time or unlimited internet availability. I have changed my mind on UTC by moving them up a slot. I have a sneaky suspicion that they may come alive shortly.

1) Wofford
2) WCU
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) UTC
8) ETSU
9) VMI

VMI 14 at Furman 38 - no revelations here.

ETSU 20 at WCU 45 - likewise.

UTC 20 at Mercer 17 - upset comes out of nowhere, seemingly; but the Mocs have lots of talent.

Wofford 20 at The Citadel 13 - Wofford has had it mostly together and the Dogs haven't; but Dogs have not thrown in towel yet; turnovers or special teams could decide it; Dog's Defense not as bad as its appears last couple weeks. Dogs O needs a better scheme for currently available talent/experience...too inconsistent doing 100% business as usual.

BULL****. A "new scheme" is not needed. What happened the last time we abandoned the Triple Option? 20 years of losing after CT. We need to ****ing block somebody and hold onto the damn ball. We do that and we win. We don't and we lose.

[Reign of Terrier]

It seems that the consensus is that if the Citadel doesn't turn over the ball and if the offense can stay on the field they'll be in good shape.

I agree with that assessment.

[Catamount87]

I think we can compare what's happening at The Citadel right now to what happened to Wofford 2-3 seasons ago. First, the big talent has graduated or moved on. Then it's as if they're snakebite, if it can go wrong, it will. (See the Mercer games as an example, 6 fumbles, 3 lost and 8 punts) Confidence then starts to wane and the whole thing feeds on itself. Eventually they'll pull it back together. The question is when will that happen. It could start as soon as the next weird play that then falls in the dogs favor. Or, it could fester for the rest of this season and roll into next.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think we can compare what's happening at The Citadel right now to what happened to Wofford 2-3 seasons ago. First, the big talent has graduated or moved on. Then it's as if they're snakebite, if it can go wrong, it will. (See the Mercer games as an example, 6 fumbles, 3 lost and 8 punts) Confidence then starts to wane and the whole thing feeds on itself. Eventually they'll pull it back together. The question is when will that happen. It could start as soon as the next weird play that then falls in the dogs favor. Or, it could fester for the rest of this season and roll into next.

I don't know, watching Wofford in 2014 and 2015 was like watching someone start a car with a dying battery.

In 2013 we were pretty decent to start the season, 5-2 with an upset loss against Gardner Webb in a down pour. We went on to play the better competition on our schedule (App State, Chattanooga, Furman and Samford) and lost 4 straight (albeit somewhat competitively).

I think it may be a comparable situation, except Citadel's schedule doesn't stack up to be as favorable to the mid-season. So instead of it being like a total collapse, it's going to be an in-and-out thing. Prognostication is all about figure out the average performance of a team. It's very much within the realms of possibility that Citadel gets an upset this weekend but still finishes in the 5-6 range. With Furman, Western and Clemson on the schedule still, I think they'll finish 5-6 or 4-7. I think they'll beat VMI and they should beat Chattanooga.

How they play tomorrow night will be a good indicator for the rest of the season IMO.

[PaladinFan]

I don't know, watching Wofford in 2014 and 2015 was like watching someone start a car with a dying battery.

In 2013 we were pretty decent to start the season, 5-2 with an upset loss against Gardner Webb in a down pour. We went on to play the better competition on our schedule (App State, Chattanooga, Furman and Samford) and lost 4 straight (albeit somewhat competitively).

I think it may be a comparable situation, except Citadel's schedule doesn't stack up to be as favorable to the mid-season. So instead of it being like a total collapse, it's going to be an in-and-out thing. Prognostication is all about figure out the average performance of a team. It's very much within the realms of possibility that Citadel gets an upset this weekend but still finishes in the 5-6 range. With Furman, Western and Clemson on the schedule still, I think they'll finish 5-6 or 4-7. I think they'll beat VMI and they should beat Chattanooga.

How they play tomorrow night will be a good indicator for the rest of the season IMO.

I keep referring back to 2013 because it is a peculiar outlier confirming anything can happen.

Halfway through that season Furman was 2-4 with losses to Elon, Coastal, GWU, and UTC. Wins over Presbyterian and the Citadel.

Things did not look good with App, GSU, Wofford, Samford, Western Carolina and LSU still to play. Furman went 5-1 over that group, with their only loss to LSU. Good example of how even an intimidating portion of the schedule can be managed when a team gets on a roll.

[ElCid]

BULL****. A "new scheme" is not needed. What happened the last time we abandoned the Triple Option? 20 years of losing after CT. We need to ****ing block somebody and hold onto the damn ball. We do that and we win. We don't and we lose.

Don't equate new scheme with abandoning the TO. I should have been more specific. But anyone must use their strengths and avoid their weaknesses. We have have heartedly tried to adjust or gone to throwing too much.

[FUBeAR]

1. Wofford:
2. Furman:
3. Mercer:
4. Western Carolina:
5. Samford:
6. Chattanooga:
7. Citadel:
8. ETSU:
9. VMI:

VMI @ Furman
ETSU @ WCU
Chattanooga @ Mercer
Wofford @ Citadel

RANKINGS NARRATIVE:
There have been 28 'outcomes' between SoCon Teams so far this season. There will be 72 'outcomes' at the end of the season. So, we are almost 40% complete with the 2017 SoCon Season.

Unless I'm mistaken, in the rankings above, with the exception of 1 anomalous game, no Team has lost to a Team that is ranked lower than itself, and, conversely, no Team has beaten a Team that is ranked higher than itself.

Thus, based on current results, the largest mathematical error one can claim in this ranking is 7.14% - FUBeAR is satisfied with an almost 93% level of confidence in his rankings.

NOTE: Due to 1 Team (Team A) beating a Team (Team B) which beat another Team (Team C) that beat Team A, rankings perfectly aligned with results to date is impossible.

In other words...THE FUBeAR RANKINGS ARE THE BEST RANKINGS POSSIBLE!!!

(OK - YT - Start 'controlling' for this and/or that and shoot some holes in my math....GO!)

NOTE2: There are other solutions that are equivalent to this one...mathematically speaking (only).


May come back and flesh out my picks...may not.

[Terrier19]

The good news about being a Wofford fan....everyone knows what we are going to do on all sides of the ball...It's no mystery....It comes down to the basics for us...can we play mistake free football...limit turnovers...play our brand of football....when we do that, we are in very good shape....and with this current team and talent/roster, we are in better shape than in most years.

I like us every weekend that we play Wofford football.....we are a tough out this season. You are going to have to execute at a high level to finish us off and if we are within a score late.....I like our chances finding a way to win.

[kdinva]

....But anyone must use their strengths and avoid their weaknesses......

VMI coaches told the alums/boosters in August that VMI's "strengths" on offense are/were 4 good halfbacks, two reliable fullbacks, two decent tight ends, and "only" 3 returning receivers (with 4 in the freshman class). Look for a TE AND FB the vast majority of the time (like Coach Stew did with Tommy Haskins)......has not happened yet.. The fullback may get in on 15 offensive plays per game, 20-25 for the TE.....but Duncan Hodges is coming along....

[FUBeAR]

if we are within a score late.....I like our chances finding a way to win.

https://media.makeameme.org/created/aaaaaand-im-gagging.jpg

[Reign of Terrier]

1. Wofford:
2. Furman:
3. Mercer:
4. Western Carolina:
5. Samford:
6. Chattanooga:
7. Citadel:
8. ETSU:
9. VMI:

VMI @ Furman
ETSU @ WCU
Chattanooga @ Mercer
Wofford @ Citadel

RANKINGS NARRATIVE:
There have been 28 'outcomes' between SoCon Teams so far this season. There will be 72 'outcomes' at the end of the season. So, we are almost 40% complete with the 2017 SoCon Season.

Unless I'm mistaken, in the rankings above, with the exception of 1 anomalous game, no Team has lost to a Team that is ranked lower than itself, and, conversely, no Team has beaten a Team that is ranked higher than itself.

Thus, based on current results, the largest mathematical error one can claim in this ranking is 7.14% - FUBeAR is satisfied with an almost 93% level of confidence in his rankings.

NOTE: Due to 1 Team (Team A) beating a Team (Team B) which beat another Team (Team C) that beat Team A, rankings perfectly aligned with results to date is impossible.

In other words...THE FUBeAR RANKINGS ARE THE BEST RANKINGS POSSIBLE!!!

(OK - YT - Start 'controlling' for this and/or that and shoot some holes in my math....GO!)


May come back and flesh out my picks...may not.

In that case, I will oblige. 40% is a good number, but it's not a good enough sample. We need to be 50% to 2/3 done with the season before we can have a scale-able extrapolation just based upon the logic you're using.

For instance, Furman is ranked #2 in your rankings, which based upon eye test and overall efficiency, isn't a bad ranking, but they've only beaten one team in the Socon thus far. Similarly, Mercer is 3, but they've lost more games than any in the top 5 in the Socon.

If you were doing it based upon an average, there would be too much margin of error and clustering to have a clear-cut 1-9 ranking. So if I were to revise your rankings without out-right contradicting them I'd have them as:

1) Wofford
2) Furman
2) Mercer
2) Samford
2) Western: putting them all in alphabetical order; the only teams that have played each other are Samford, Mercer and the only teams that have swung "up" to Wofford all lost and were all the #2 but Samford)
6) Citadel (beat ETSU but clearly below the tied for 2s, considering they lost to all of the ones they played. They beat ETSU though.)
7) ETSU (quality win against Mercer, but lost to Furman pretty bad and played Citadel close; what sets them apart from Chattanooga and VMI is the close performance to the Citadel and the win against Mercer)
8) Chattanooga (beat VMI, but that's about it; got walloped by the above teams that are placed second)
9) VMI (need I say more)

As for the tied for second teams: I would argue that Western right now should be above the others because they were the only ones to beat a co-second team thus far, and after 60 minutes they were tied with Wofford, not down 1. From there, I think it's a safe bet that Samford, Furman and Mercer should be tied for that third spot, with preference to Samford, having not played Wofford and playing Western damn well close.

So, the adjust rankings I would put up are
1) Wofford
2) Western
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) Citadel
7) ETSU
8) Chattanooga
9) VMI

These rankings meet the standards you've appointed above as well, with the exception of one game, no team below another on the rankings has beat the above team. The difference is that my above model accounts for average performance, conference record, and mutual matchups.

It cannot be reiterated how much of a razor's edge separates teams 1-5. Wofford's advantage is in getting through most of the tough teams unscathed.

On a sidenote, this model also kind of demonstrates why Wofford should be favored tomorrow night, but again, if we're talking about making this about averages, Citadel could still win

[Reign of Terrier]

https://media.makeameme.org/created/aaaaaand-im-gagging.jpg

Don't know why the Mercer fan criticizes Wofford fans for pointing out the mathematical truth that we've won more games in the past year when they were within a score than lost (Citadel in the playoffs, Chattanooga, Furman (2x), GW, Mercer, Western Carolina (2x if you want to count our score to put the game away last year), tennesee tech, etc etc). That's 9-3, 8-1 if you take out OT games.

It's almost as if y'all are envious of our ability to put away close games and win big games or something

[FUBeAR]

In that case, I will oblige. 40% is a good number, but it's not a good enough sample. We need to be 50% to 2/3 done with the season before we can have a scale-able extrapolation just based upon the logic you're using.

For instance, Furman is ranked #2 in your rankings, which based upon eye test and overall efficiency, isn't a bad ranking, but they've only beaten one team in the Socon thus far. Similarly, Mercer is 3, but they've lost more games than any in the top 5 in the Socon.

If you were doing it based upon an average, there would be too much margin of error and clustering to have a clear-cut 1-9 ranking. So if I were to revise your rankings without out-right contradicting them I'd have them as:

1) Wofford
2) Furman
2) Mercer
2) Samford
2) Western: putting them all in alphabetical order; the only teams that have played each other are Samford, Mercer and the only teams that have swung "up" to Wofford all lost and were all the #2 but Samford)
6) Citadel (beat ETSU but clearly below the tied for 2s, considering they lost to all of the ones they played. They beat ETSU though.)
7) ETSU (quality win against Mercer, but lost to Furman pretty bad and played Citadel close; what sets them apart from Chattanooga and VMI is the close performance to the Citadel and the win against Mercer)
8) Chattanooga (beat VMI, but that's about it; got walloped by the above teams that are placed second)
9) VMI (need I say more)

As for the tied for second teams: I would argue that Western right now should be above the others because they were the only ones to beat a co-second team thus far, and after 60 minutes they were tied with Wofford, not down 1. From there, I think it's a safe bet that Samford, Furman and Mercer should be tied for that third spot, with preference to Samford, having not played Wofford and playing Western damn well close.

So, the adjust rankings I would put up are
1) Wofford
2) Western
3) Samford
4) Furman
5) Mercer
6) Citadel
7) ETSU
8) Chattanooga
9) VMI

These rankings meet the standards you've appointed above as well, with the exception of one game, no team below another on the rankings has beat the above team. The difference is that my above model accounts for average performance, conference record, and mutual matchups.

It cannot be reiterated how much of a razor's edge separates teams 1-5. Wofford's advantage is in getting through most of the tough teams unscathed.

On a sidenote, this model also kind of demonstrates why Wofford should be favored tomorrow night, but again, if we're talking about making this about averages, Citadel could still win

All good...Like my colleague BearDownMU, I'll rely on my eye-test and experience for my secondary sortation. As I read your model, I don't see that you disagreed with my basic premise, but instead took a finer view of it using various metrics of your choosing....which is not that different than applying visual and empirical knowledge.

But...I don't quite follow your logic in the passage I've bolded. You give "Preference" to Team A over Team B & Team C because they have not Played Team D, which barely escaped with victories over Teams B & C. I don't see any valid logic for that piece of your "Preference" argument. The "played Team E damn well close" piece of this is just as spurious. As neither Team B nor Team C has played Team E, there is no valid comparative conclusion that can be drawn, unless you want to extend that 1 point behind vs. 0 points behind difference and extrapolate it transitively, which is WAY beyond a test for reasonableness.

So...I won't 'give' you that. Even in your analysis, I think you must rank your current 3, 4, and 5 as #3 unless you can swirl up some additional (probably also specious) 'logical' reasons for differentiation.

[wcugrad95]

1. Wofford:
2. Furman:
3. Mercer:
4. Western Carolina:
5. Samford:
6. Chattanooga:
7. Citadel:
8. ETSU:
9. VMI:

VMI @ Furman
ETSU @ WCU
Chattanooga @ Mercer
Wofford @ Citadel

RANKINGS NARRATIVE:
There have been 28 'outcomes' between SoCon Teams so far this season. There will be 72 'outcomes' at the end of the season. So, we are almost 40% complete with the 2017 SoCon Season.

Unless I'm mistaken, in the rankings above, with the exception of 1 anomalous game, no Team has lost to a Team that is ranked lower than itself, and, conversely, no Team has beaten a Team that is ranked higher than itself.

Thus, based on current results, the largest mathematical error one can claim in this ranking is 7.14% - FUBeAR is satisfied with an almost 93% level of confidence in his rankings.

NOTE: Due to 1 Team (Team A) beating a Team (Team B) which beat another Team (Team C) that beat Team A, rankings perfectly aligned with results to date is impossible.

In other words...THE FUBeAR RANKINGS ARE THE BEST RANKINGS POSSIBLE!!!

(OK - YT - Start 'controlling' for this and/or that and shoot some holes in my math....GO!)

NOTE2: There are other solutions that are equivalent to this one...mathematically speaking (only).


May come back and flesh out my picks...may not.

I don't have a problem with the teams you picked in the top 5 - only the order. I see your rationalization, but I would say that your anomaly is kind of a big one. No team other than the one has lost to a team in the bottom-half. So given current results, that should change the lineup in my opinion (for now - could all be different come Sunday). I honestly don't know where the order will be in the end, but for now every poll skews towards most wins/fewest losses, and then gets ordered by fewest conference losses. But I also am more like your fellow MU pal and rely more on what I see versus math.

[SCPALADIN]

After that weird 5-4 season, we didn't have another winning season until 2014 when we had back-to-back 7 win seasons (and didn't make the playoffs either time).

You didn't make the playoffs in 2014 or 2015 because you didn't have 7 Division I wins. In 2014 two of those 7 wins were against Division II teams (Brevard & Catawba) and in 2015 one was against D-II Mars Hill.

[Terrier19]

https://media.makeameme.org/created/aaaaaand-im-gagging.jpg

That is funny.....xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx .....although it wasn't a dig...I know you felt that one.....lol/

[Sandlapper Spike]

Is 7 D-1 wins a requirement, though? Western Illinois got an at-large bid in 2015 with a 6-5 record.

[Reign of Terrier]

Let me exclude the bottom 4 in this post to hone in why I think each team should be in the position I've ranked them. My rankings aren't arbitrary because my only stated bias is pro-Wofford (which I'm aware of and try to adjust in my assessments; regardless, they are #1 in the conference until beaten).

So, right now, at least based upon the results of the field, Wofford's number 1, having beaten 3/4 of the other top 5.

I rank Western Carolina higher than everyone else because they played Wofford tougher than anyone else (they lost by 7, yes, but they went to OT which is more than Mercer and Furman can say). That point by itself puts Western in the discussion for number 2. What puts them solidly over the top is the fact that they beat Samford.

Samford, meanwhile, has played Citadel (won almost easily) and VMI (a bad team), while losing to Western. Logically, they have to be above the Citadel and (for right now) below Western Carolina. I'm preferential to Samford over Mercer and Furman because 1) Samford has a better win as of right now than Furman (Citadel > Chattanooga). I can understand why that point is disputable. Regardless, even if it was a statistical blurb, Mercer belongs in the #5 spot because they're clearly better than the Citadel, but lost to ETSU. It's true they played Wofford tough, but the other top 5 teams (except Samford...yet) can't say that.

As I already reiterated in the original post, there's still a razor's edge that separate teams 1-5 and there's still lots of uncertainty. You can assault my methodology/reasoning as a sort of retrospective bias to make a team look better, but I think it's clear that my ranking rewards teams for A) their record and compensate for B) good wins (Western, for Samford; Wofford over Western/Furman/Mercer thus far), good losses (Western for its loss against Wofford; Samford for its loss against western), and I punish teams for bad losses (Mercer's loss to ETSU). Under such criteria, Samford and Furman by virtue of not stumbling should be ranked ahead of Mercer, and because they have identical resumes, Samford's in-conference SOS is better, so I give them an edge.

Like it or not, my method is more precise, less arbitrary and better than yours because everyone has an eye test. Stats are measurable by definition which is why we use them. The difference between my method and yours is that I can tell you what could change my rankings: pending on how bad the outcomes, if Wofford loses they move down to that second tier; no one is moving up this week unless there are upsets.

[FUBeAR]

No team other than the one has lost to a team in the bottom-half.

True - Also True is that no other Team (1-9) has played the #10 Ranked FBS Team in a game that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes. The other Teams' in question forays into the FBS world were met with much less positive results. I don't think that should be ignored any more (or less) than the anomaly in question or other Teams' results against far inferior Teams (D2, PFL, etc.).

So...I have 'counted' Mercer's 'showing' against Auburn (and ETSU) and included that along with WCU's against Hawaii (and Davidson) and Sammy's against UGA (and West AL)...and called 'em as I sees 'em.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't have a problem with the teams you picked in the top 5 - only the order. I see your rationalization, but I would say that your anomaly is kind of a big one. No team other than the one has lost to a team in the bottom-half. So given current results, that should change the lineup in my opinion (for now - could all be different come Sunday). I honestly don't know where the order will be in the end, but for now every poll skews towards most wins/fewest losses, and then gets ordered by fewest conference losses. But I also am more like your fellow MU pal and rely more on what I see versus math.

The guy whose name is an acronym for the Mercer Bears and Furman ranks Mercer and Furman in the top 3 and we're supposed to pretend that's not more arbitrary than a set methodology?

The only way you can say that Mercer is the #3 team in the conference *right now* is with the caveat that they're all close and by putting heavy weight on the one point loss to Wofford. As much as I think Furman is a good team that's going on a run, they also haven't played a tough enough conference schedule (2 wins against bottom 3 teams, 1 close loss to Wofford) *right now* to justify a top 3 ranking.

[PaladinFan]

Let me exclude the bottom 4 in this post to hone in why I think each team should be in the position I've ranked them. My rankings aren't arbitrary because my only stated bias is pro-Wofford (which I'm aware of and try to adjust in my assessments; regardless, they are #1 in the conference until beaten).

So, right now, at least based upon the results of the field, Wofford's number 1, having beaten 3/4 of the other top 5.

I rank Western Carolina higher than everyone else because they played Wofford tougher than anyone else (they lost by 7, yes, but they went to OT which is more than Mercer and Furman can say). That point by itself puts Western in the discussion for number 2. What puts them solidly over the top is the fact that they beat Samford.

Samford, meanwhile, has played Citadel (won almost easily) and VMI (a bad team), while losing to Western. Logically, they have to be above the Citadel and (for right now) below Western Carolina. I'm preferential to Samford over Mercer and Furman because 1) Samford has a better win as of right now than Furman (Citadel > Chattanooga). I can understand why that point is disputable. Regardless, even if it was a statistical blurb, Mercer belongs in the #5 spot because they're clearly better than the Citadel, but lost to ETSU. It's true they played Wofford tough, but the other top 5 teams (except Samford...yet) can't say that.

As I already reiterated in the original post, there's still a razor's edge that separate teams 1-5 and there's still lots of uncertainty. You can assault my methodology/reasoning as a sort of retrospective bias to make a team look better, but I think it's clear that my ranking rewards teams for A) their record and compensate for B) good wins (Western, for Samford; Wofford over Western/Furman/Mercer thus far), good losses (Western for its loss against Wofford; Samford for its loss against western), and I punish teams for bad losses (Mercer's loss to ETSU). Under such criteria, Samford and Furman by virtue of not stumbling should be ranked ahead of Mercer, and because they have identical resumes, Samford's in-conference SOS is better, so I give them an edge.

Like it or not, my method is more precise, less arbitrary and better than yours because everyone has an eye test. Stats are measurable by definition which is why we use them. The difference between my method and yours is that I can tell you what could change my rankings: pending on how bad the outcomes, if Wofford loses they move down to that second tier; no one is moving up this week unless there are upsets.

Because we went for the kill.

[FUBeAR]

Let me exclude the bottom 4 in this post to hone in why I think each team should be in the position I've ranked them. My rankings aren't arbitrary because my only stated bias is pro-Wofford (which I'm aware of and try to adjust in my assessments; regardless, they are #1 in the conference until beaten).

So, right now, at least based upon the results of the field, Wofford's number 1, having beaten 3/4 of the other top 5.

I rank Western Carolina higher than everyone else because they played Wofford tougher than anyone else (they lost by 7, yes, but they went to OT which is more than Mercer and Furman can say). That point by itself puts Western in the discussion for number 2. What puts them solidly over the top is the fact that they beat Samford.

Samford, meanwhile, has played Citadel (won almost easily) and VMI (a bad team), while losing to Western. Logically, they have to be above the Citadel and (for right now) below Western Carolina. I'm preferential to Samford over Mercer and Furman because 1) Samford has a better win as of right now than Furman (Citadel > Chattanooga). I can understand why that point is disputable. Regardless, even if it was a statistical blurb, Mercer belongs in the #5 spot because they're clearly better than the Citadel, but lost to ETSU. It's true they played Wofford tough, but the other top 5 teams (except Samford...yet) can't say that.

As I already reiterated in the original post, there's still a razor's edge that separate teams 1-5 and there's still lots of uncertainty. You can assault my methodology/reasoning as a sort of retrospective bias to make a team look better, but I think it's clear that my ranking rewards teams for A) their record and compensate for B) good wins (Western, for Samford; Wofford over Western/Furman/Mercer thus far), good losses (Western for its loss against Wofford; Samford for its loss against western), and I punish teams for bad losses (Mercer's loss to ETSU). Under such criteria, Samford and Furman by virtue of not stumbling should be ranked ahead of Mercer, and because they have identical resumes, Samford's in-conference SOS is better, so I give them an edge.

Like it or not, my method is more precise, less arbitrary and better than yours because everyone has an eye test. Stats are measurable by definition which is why we use them. The difference between my method and yours is that I can tell you what could change my rankings: pending on how bad the outcomes, if Wofford loses they move down to that second tier; no one is moving up this week unless there are upsets.

I don't think you can call them "Stats" when you are arbitrarily selecting which "Stats" you want to use and which ones you don't...and deciding how much you want to value each of the ones you select. Maybe that's what you mean by "controlling for".....but I think that's....um....just....

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/20/200a017853926a500293efe694af1adff8e103d6ad90de1743 b882bf0dbe1b22.jpg

[SCPALADIN]

Is 7 D-1 wins a requirement, though? Western Illinois got an at-large bid in 2015 with a 6-5 record.

Six is the minimum. So yes, technically, WCU would have been eligible in 2015 with six DI wins. That said, the Western Illinois resume was considerably stronger than WCU, with wins against #12 Northern Iowa and #5 SD State. WCU had one win against a team that finished with a winning record...Samford (6-5).

[wcugrad95]

Is 7 D-1 wins a requirement, though? Western Illinois got an at-large bid in 2015 with a 6-5 record.

I think 6 are required, and 7 are preferred. This has been argued elsewhere, but would WCU those 2 years been better because they scheduled and beat Pioneer teams? I'd argue we would have been the same team, but maybe would have gotten in. We played 2 FBS teams those years - if I remember correctly most of those were SEC teams, too. So 7-4, 2 SoCon losses, and 0-2 against the SEC kept us out because we had 6 DI wins and played Mars Hill instead of Davidson or the like.

[Reign of Terrier]

True - Also True is that no other Team (1-9) has played the #10 Ranked FBS Team in a game that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes. The other Teams' in question forays into the FBS world were met with much less positive results. I don't think that should be ignored any more (or less) than the anomaly in question or other Teams' results against far inferior Teams (D2, PFL, etc.).

So...I have 'counted' Mercer's 'showing' against Auburn (and ETSU) and included that along with WCU's against Hawaii (and Davidson) and Sammy's against UGA (and West AL)...and called 'em as I sees 'em.

If Mercer forced 5 turnovers in every game they played, I'd consider this a good point, but seeing as that isn't the case I say you're putting too much weight on an outlier performance to justify your homer pick.

Turnovers are crazy in that they are the one kind of play that you only need on 5% of the total plays to change an outcome to where the final score may not reflect the aggregate strength of the teams. Turnovers are, by definition, outlier plays and judging the aggregate performance of a team based upon outliers is fallacious. Again, it would be one thing if they averaged those sort of plays at a constant rate in every game, but that isn't the case.

Auburn had over 500 yards of offense against Mercer and scored on 4 of 7 possessions that weren't turnovers. They only punted twice.

To make my point more salient:
1) Do you really think that Mercer's defense is comparable to a power 5 or SEC defense just because of the scoring outcome?
2) Do you think Mercer can/will average forcing 5 turnovers a game this year?

If you answer yes to either of those questions, you demonstrate your bias. I think Mercer has a great defense. But they aren't an SEC defense. Mercer is also great at forcing turnovers, but 5 per game is an ungodly number.

[Terrier19]

The only things that are certain and easy to see thus far.

Wofford is 1st (No losses)

VMI is last (so far)

All things in the middle are muddied at best. A bunch of good, tough teams fighting to differentiate themselves from the rest. If Wofford slips up, they join that fray, If VMI wins a game or 2 they also join the fray, plenty of action left to sort it all out. We can haggle about eye tests, mathematical algorithims, or just plain biased homerism. Facts remain, our teams need to continue to handle business on Saturday.....

[SCPALADIN]

I think 6 are required, and 7 are preferred. This has been argued elsewhere, but would WCU those 2 years been better because they scheduled and beat Pioneer teams? I'd argue we would have been the same team, but maybe would have gotten in. We played 2 FBS teams those years - if I remember correctly most of those were SEC teams, too. So 7-4, 2 SoCon losses, and 0-2 against the SEC kept us out because we had 6 DI wins and played Mars Hill instead of Davidson or the like.

Even if WCU had played and beaten Davidson instead of Mars Hill in 2015, they wouldn't have gotten an at-large bid. Take a look at the bracket, exclude the auto-bids, and tell me who WCU would bump. There's just no way WCU was going to bump one of the 3 ranked MVFC teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think you can call them "Stats" when you are arbitrarily selecting which "Stats" you want to use and which ones you don't...and deciding how much you want to value each of the ones you select. Maybe that's what you mean by "controlling for".....but I think that's....um....just....

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/20/200a017853926a500293efe694af1adff8e103d6ad90de1743 b882bf0dbe1b22.jpg

If the question is "which team is better than others" we have a pretty reasonable standard of which to go to...how many wins/losses they have. If those numbers get muddy, we look at the average performance, given the sample size.

Given the sample size and performance, Mercer is easily worse than Samford and Furman. You can call the ETSU game a statistical fluke and I would agree with you, but if we're looking at teams of close quality, we weigh the outcomes accordingly. The ETSU game still happened, therefore it's going to weight you down. You're not the third best team in the Socon.

I bet if Mercer was tied with a team they lost to for the Socon title, you would say "it's just opinion" that the other team gets the playoff autobid. That's not how this works. We create criteria for certain outcomes. There's nothing that's in the universe that says one criteria is better than the other, but some criteria are better than others by virtue of their predictive ability and consistency.

Your method doesn't seem to have any consistency beyond Furman and Mercer homerism.

- - - Updated - - -


Because we went for the kill.

That is a valid point.

Mercer is still on the bottom

[wcugrad95]

Six is the minimum. So yes, technically, WCU would have been eligible in 2015 with six DI wins. That said, the Western Illinois resume was considerably stronger than WCU, with wins against #12 Northern Iowa and #5 SD State. WCU had one win against a team that finished with a winning record...Samford (6-5).

Then let's go with this hypothetical. We schedule Davidson and Stetson that year instead of Mars Hill and one of the SEC teams. We are now 8-3 and no doubt are in over a 6-5 team. Would that schedule somehow magically made us better? I'd argue the SOS playing Texas A&M and Trnnessee should have factored more than had we done 2 "easy" DI opponents.

But at 8-3, surely we would have squeaked in?

[FUBeAR]

Because we went for the kill.

Right - to draw some clear distinction between the "Power Ranking" of Wofford, Furman, Mercer, and/or Western Carolina from the 3 games vs. Woffy is a bunch of hooey.

Woffy gets the wins. No denying them that...and they get all of the rights and responsibilities that come with those wins....but to say Western is better than FU or Mercer because they were 1 point closer at the end of regulation...in games that, in all cases, could have been won by either Team....is just a crock of....

Right now - NO ONE knows which one of the 5 Teams are the Best Team. NO ONE.

Woffy has the best record and has found ways to win close games, which says a lot of good things about their Coaching & their Character. Their O is OK and their D is good, but not as good as last year.
Mercer lost the stupidest game (or 2) that they shouldn't have bone-headedly lost. Mercer also played the best OOC game (I don't care whether they were wins or losses) of any Team in the SoCon
Furman looks the best on the Offense and is doing some cool stuff on D too - maybe the best lookin' all-around Team in the SoCon right now
Samford can play O and has shown sparks of D
WCU can light up the scoreboard...and maybe play a little D too

That's all we really know...if we're honest.

[Reign of Terrier]

We also know that Wofford has played the hardest conference schedule. We don't *look* impressive because we haven't gotten the opportunity to beat VMI 34-0 or hold Chattanooga to less than 20 yards rushingxrolleyesx

Again, everyone in the conference wants to say Wofford hasn't looked impressive, but the only team with valid ground to stand on in saying that is Samford, because every other team has either a bad loss or lost to wofford. Meanwhile, if you look at our performance this year compared to last, we've scored more offensive points against Mercer than we did last year (last year we broke 30 on a blocked kick) and made less mistakes against a better Furman team. We also scored more points against a better Western team, and beat PC worse than we ever have since they moved up to D1.

That's not to say we can't lose to anyone else on the schedule, but part of the reason why we're in the top 40 in most stats as opposed to the top 20 has a lot to do with playing 5 teams who have only lost to FCS ranked or FBS teams.

I'll concede we played a poor game against Gardner Webb, but if these games were scattered between blowouts against ETSU, VMI and Chattanooga (not a given, but more possible than our previous games this season) that would not be the narrative of Wofford right now.

[Terrier19]

Right - to draw some clear distinction between the "Power Ranking" of Wofford, Furman, Mercer, and/or Western Carolina from the 3 games vs. Woffy is a bunch of hooey.

Woffy gets the wins. No denying them that...and they get all of the rights and responsibilities that come with those wins....but to say Western is better than FU or Mercer because they were 1 point closer at the end of regulation...in games that, in all cases, could have been won by either Team....is just a crock of....

Right now - NO ONE knows which one of the 5 Teams are the Best Team. NO ONE.

Woffy has the best record and has found ways to win close games, which says a lot of good things about their Coaching & their Character. Their O is OK and their D is good, but not as good as last year.
Mercer lost the stupidest game (or 2) that they shouldn't have bone-headedly lost. Mercer also played the best OOC game (I don't care whether they were wins or losses) of any Team in the SoCon
Furman looks the best on the Offense and is doing some cool stuff on D too - maybe the best lookin' all-around Team in the SoCon right now
Samford can play O and has shown sparks of D
WCU can light up the scoreboard...and maybe play a little D too

That's all we really know...if we're honest.

You make a lot of good points....

But all in all....You should have ended that whole piece about all we know is....."Woffy gets the wins. No denying them that...and they get all of the rights and responsibilities that come with those wins"

That's the FACTS of the matter..until anyone beats Wofford...you can only speculate about who is better, looks better......

[PaladinFan]

If Mercer forced 5 turnovers in every game they played, I'd consider this a good point, but seeing as that isn't the case I say you're putting too much weight on an outlier performance to justify your homer pick.

Turnovers are crazy in that they are the one kind of play that you only need on 5% of the total plays to change an outcome to where the final score may not reflect the aggregate strength of the teams. Turnovers are, by definition, outlier plays and judging the aggregate performance of a team based upon outliers is fallacious. Again, it would be one thing if they averaged those sort of plays at a constant rate in every game, but that isn't the case.

Auburn had over 500 yards of offense against Mercer and scored on 4 of 7 possessions that weren't turnovers. They only punted twice.

To make my point more salient:
1) Do you really think that Mercer's defense is comparable to a power 5 or SEC defense just because of the scoring outcome?
2) Do you think Mercer can/will average forcing 5 turnovers a game this year?

If you answer yes to either of those questions, you demonstrate your bias. I think Mercer has a great defense. But they aren't an SEC defense. Mercer is also great at forcing turnovers, but 5 per game is an ungodly number.

It was the first time in ten years Auburn had been -5 in turnovers for a game.

Auburn put up similar offensive production against Mercer as they have over the rest of their non-Clemson schedule. They are scoring 40-50 points against everyone. They've only had two turnovers since the Mercer game, a point which I am sure was "emphasized" by their coaching staff.

[ElCid]

I don't think you can call them "Stats" when you are arbitrarily selecting which "Stats" you want to use and which ones you don't...and deciding how much you want to value each of the ones you select. Maybe that's what you mean by "controlling for".....but I think that's....um....just....

The only "stat" that matters is the score. Everything else is just spin.

Having said that, I still find emense value in them for general trends. But when all is said and done, stats don't win individual games, players do, whether they have good stats or not.

[FUBeAR]

You make a lot of good points....

But all in all....You should have ended that whole piece about all we know is....."Woffy gets the wins. No denying them that...and they get all of the rights and responsibilities that come with those wins"

OK, if you insist - next time I'll be sure to exclude the compliment about the Character of Wofford's Football Team. I aim to please.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't want people confusing my stridency on these rankings with confidence that Wofford will win out or even win tomorrow. It's an average and as I've pointed out ad nauseam, positions 1-5 are on a razor's edge right now.

I'm just very confident, now that wofford has beaten Mercer and Mercer has laid an egg in a game that that Auburn game is not a good indicator of the average expectation of what one should expect from Mercer. I lay off my hot takes about teams we haven't played yet unless it's unavoidable (eg Chatt) because people assume a criticism or an insight is a definite prognostication and not just an educated guess (I have a specific take on the citadel I'm hearing around the SC football/message board grapevine, but I'll not share it until after tomorrow)

[Terrier19]

The only "stat" that matters is the score. Everything else is just spin.

Having said that, I still find emense value in them for general trends. But when all is said and done, stats don't win individual games, players do, whether they have good stats or not.

THIS

[FUBeAR]

Auburn [is] scoring 40-50 points against everyone ELSE - OTHER THAN CLEMSON & MERCER. They've only had two turnovers since...Mercer FORCED 5 TURNOVERS in their game

FIFY

[FUBeAR]

We also know that Wofford has played the hardest conference schedule

We don't KNOW this. We may think it based on outcomes to date, but we don't KNOW that Furman, Mercer, and WCU aren't going to lose all of their remaining Conference games (except 1/2 of the 3 games that they play each other). CIT could get it together, along with Chatt, and Samford & thrash the rest.

Countin' a lot of chickens up there in SparkleCity, methinks.

C'MON BELLHOPS!! Make those AnkleBiters spit out that yardbird!

[Terrier19]

OK, if you insist - next time I'll be sure to exclude the compliment about the Character of Wofford's Football Team. I aim to please.

xcoolxxcoolxxcoolxxcoolxxcoolxxdrunkyxxdrunkyxxdru nkyx

[Terrier19]

[QUOTE=Countin' a lot of chickens up there in SparkleCity, methinks.[/QUOTE]

A lot of a hopin and a prayin down there in Macon, METHINKS........

[wcugrad95]

We don't KNOW this. We may think it based on outcomes to date, but we don't KNOW that Furman, Mercer, and WCU aren't going to lose all of their remaining Conference games (except 1/2 of the 3 games that they play each other). CIT could get it together, along with Chatt, and Samford & thrash the rest.

I do agree with this. I know we are all doing a "right now" kind of take on things, and have all kinds of arguments for our teams (as we should). In the end, as one of the other posters said, right now all we know is that Wofford is at the top of the league because they haven't lost, and VMI is at the bottom because they haven't won. The rest of us have a whole bunch of games that will determine this thing, and at the end we will know how good or bad we were because we all play each other. Each week tells us a little more because we all have SoCon games until the last weekend. If Wofford goes undefeated, they are the champs. But my gut (no math involved) is that we have several teams between 5-3 and 7-1 in conference play when we get through the next 5 weeks. Even then, the only thing that will be decided is who the champ/AQ is for the league. We will all still be on here arguing the proper "order" of the power standings.

[BearDownMU]

I don't want people confusing my stridency on these rankings with confidence that Wofford will win out or even win tomorrow. It's an average and as I've pointed out ad nauseam, positions 1-5 are on a razor's edge right now.

I'm just very confident, now that wofford has beaten Mercer and Mercer has laid an egg in a game that that Auburn game is not a good indicator of the average expectation of what one should expect from Mercer. I lay off my hot takes about teams we haven't played yet unless it's unavoidable (eg Chatt) because people assume a criticism or an insight is a definite prognostication and not just an educated guess (I have a specific take on the citadel I'm hearing around the SC football/message board grapevine, but I'll not share it until after tomorrow)

I was going to stay out of this, but this really confuses me. Especially the Auburn bit and somehow acting like the FORCED turnovers were some kind of anomaly. Shouldn't it work in the opposite direction for a game likeAuburn, meaning that the LEAST likely game on the schedule (well, maybe not, we do have to play Alabama, lol) for that to happen, but it did anyway?

Furthermore, no, we won't average 5 takeaways a game. But we do have 15 takeaways on the season. And the next closest team has 10. That's a pretty wide gap. Icluding +6 margin which is tied for the league lead. So, as far as the takeaway bit goes, it wan't just Auburn. Are you suggesting that somehow ALL of those turnovers forced are anomalous? And somehow that's just an outlier for Mercer? Or that a part of evaluating their defense and it's "level of goodness" somehow should include the TREND that they are good at taking the ball away?

I don't know, it's a lot to read. But it sounds like you are arguing against your own methodology from time to time.

[FUBeAR]

Again, everyone in the conference wants to say Wofford hasn't looked impressive, but the only team with valid ground to stand on in saying that is Samford, because every other team has either a bad loss or lost to wofford. Meanwhile, if you look at our performance this year compared to last, we've scored more offensive points against Mercer than we did last year (last year we broke 30 on a blocked kick) and made less mistakes against a better Furman team. We also scored more points against a better Western team, and beat PC worse than we ever have since they moved up to D1.

I can spin all 4 of those games completely differently & be highly critical of Wofford’s escapes I would & be 100% correct. BUT...Wofford earned 4 W’s & that’s really the best thing you can say about those wins. And that’s plenty. No need to gild the lily. 4 W’s is 4 W’s. It’s OK that Wofford didn’t look particularly good in how they won any of them. No style points are awarded. No need to try to manufacture them after bringing home the W. Winning ugly is still winning.

And all that ‘supporting evidence’ for how much better Woffy’s Offense is this year. Not required. I agree, Wofford’s Offense IS better this year. Now, it has risen to, as I said, “OK.” It was less than OK last year, but the D was ACES. Pretty balanced this year, but it’s still too early to tell what the NET is. Make it to the FCS Semi-Finals & then we’ll know.

[FUBeAR]

I don't want people confusing my stridency on these rankings with confidence

I'm just very confident, now that wofford has beaten Mercer and Mercer has laid an egg in a game that that Auburn game is not a good indicator of the average expectation of what one should expect from Mercer.

Truly hilarious & another perfect example of pretending opinions are facts.

In this game that you describe that “Mercer laid an egg,” you do realize that

A) if an XP snap had been 2” higher, Mercer would have won that ‘egg game’ by the same ‘dominating’ number of points that Wofford beat Furman & Mercer

B) you have no idea, right now, that ETSU is not 2 scores or mores better than Wofford. I know you’ll say that FU killed them & that’s how you know, but that FU Team ain’t the same Team that was ‘dominated’ by Wofford in the 1st week of the season. They are much more confident, versatile, and experienced. Maybe they would beat Wofford worse than they beat ETSU now. And maybe ETSU is better than Wofford. The only thing you can point to is common games with FU & I’m “controlling” for extremely more rapid player development of younger players (FU) vs. more than exp’d Players (WC) & saying FU is 3 TD’s & a FG better than Wofford right now...which means ETSU is better than WC. Prove they’re not!

[FUBeAR]

A lot of a hopin and a prayin down there in Macon, METHINKS........

My prayin’ is usually done about midway between Macon, Ga & Travelers Rest, SC

[Sandlapper Spike]

I think the only thing we know for sure is that today is October 13, and tomorrow essentially marks the midway point of the regular season. Only 14 of the 36 conference games have been played to date.

[Terrier19]

My prayin’ is usually done about midway between Macon, Ga & Travelers Rest, SC

10-4....

[longtimemocfan]

I’ve seen Furman play Wofford and Chattanooga. Wofford should feel fortunate that they got them early. I think as the year has progressed Furman’s execution has only gotten better. Blazekowski does a excellent job running that offense. If I’m coach Hendrix I sit him for VMI. The only liability I see for Furman is their pass defense.

[Reign of Terrier]

We don't KNOW this. We may think it based on outcomes to date, but we don't KNOW that Furman, Mercer, and WCU aren't going to lose all of their remaining Conference games (except 1/2 of the 3 games that they play each other). CIT could get it together, along with Chatt, and Samford & thrash the rest.

Countin' a lot of chickens up there in SparkleCity, methinks.

C'MON BELLHOPS!! Make those AnkleBiters spit out that yardbird!

So you like to use averages when they fit your narrative ("maybe Mercer could win out and everyone lose out") but you refuse to acknowledge them when they don't (i.e looking at Mercer's average performance, given conference competition, they aren't in the top 3 right now). That's called bias. In more statistical terms: you're assuming that Mercer performance on a trend line has just been outside of the standard deviation even though the data points just suppose it is the trend line. The Socon is close enough to where every team (sans VMI) is in a standard deviation of each other

I don't deny that Wofford could lose any of our next 5 games, but I'm confident because our trend line suggests a higher probability of success.


I was going to stay out of this, but this really confuses me. Especially the Auburn bit and somehow acting like the FORCED turnovers were some kind of anomaly. Shouldn't it work in the opposite direction for a game likeAuburn, meaning that the LEAST likely game on the schedule (well, maybe not, we do have to play Alabama, lol) for that to happen, but it did anyway?

Furthermore, no, we won't average 5 takeaways a game. But we do have 15 takeaways on the season. And the next closest team has 10. That's a pretty wide gap. Icluding +6 margin which is tied for the league lead. So, as far as the takeaway bit goes, it wan't just Auburn. Are you suggesting that somehow ALL of those turnovers forced are anomalous? And somehow that's just an outlier for Mercer? Or that a part of evaluating their defense and it's "level of goodness" somehow should include the TREND that they are good at taking the ball away?

I don't know, it's a lot to read. But it sounds like you are arguing against your own methodology from time to time. No, my point is if you look at the Auburn game, it was the fumbles that kept it close. The performance was an outlier by definition if 1/3 of your forced turnovers come in one game. If you're going to evaluate a team, you have to look at the trend. Take out the Auburn game and Mercer averages 2 turnovers a game (which is great!), but to reasonably say that this performance was indicative of Mercer's *average* talent and not an outlier, you either have to say that Mercer is the kind of team where 5 turnovers is the trend or their defense is comparable to a power five team. Both are unlikely. That how you designate outliers, you ask yourself under what condition would this data point be the norm.


I can spin all 4 of those games completely differently & be highly critical of Wofford’s escapes I would & be 100% correct. BUT...Wofford earned 4 W’s & that’s really the best thing you can say about those wins. And that’s plenty. No need to gild the lily. 4 W’s is 4 W’s. It’s OK that Wofford didn’t look particularly good in how they won any of them. No style points are awarded. No need to try to manufacture them after bringing home the W. Winning ugly is still winning.

And all that ‘supporting evidence’ for how much better Woffy’s Offense is this year. Not required. I agree, Wofford’s Offense IS better this year. Now, it has risen to, as I said, “OK.” It was less than OK last year, but the D was ACES. Pretty balanced this year, but it’s still too early to tell what the NET is. Make it to the FCS Semi-Finals & then we’ll know.
5 W's.
Otherwise I agree.

Truly hilarious & another perfect example of pretending opinions are facts.

In this game that you describe that “Mercer laid an egg,” you do realize that

A) if an XP snap had been 2” higher, Mercer would have won that ‘egg game’ by the same ‘dominating’ number of points that Wofford beat Furman & Mercer

B) you have no idea, right now, that ETSU is not 2 scores or mores better than Wofford. I know you’ll say that FU killed them & that’s how you know, but that FU Team ain’t the same Team that was ‘dominated’ by Wofford in the 1st week of the season. They are much more confident, versatile, and experienced. Maybe they would beat Wofford worse than they beat ETSU now. And maybe ETSU is better than Wofford. The only thing you can point to is common games with FU & I’m “controlling” for extremely more rapid player development of younger players (FU) vs. more than exp’d Players (WC) & saying FU is 3 TD’s & a FG better than Wofford right now...which means ETSU is better than WC. Prove they’re not!

A) you lost the game. Mistakes still count. ETSU is good but not a playoff-caliber team. So yes, Mercer Laid an egg, I'm sorry that offends you. By the very definition of laying an egg, Mercer laid an egg, and if they didn't lay an egg they are a bad football team. Missing a snap on an XP and losing the game accordingly is still losing the game. It's also not 100% certain that ETSU wouldn't have tried to tie it with a two point conversion.

Putting it in statistical terms, laying an egg is basically having a low statistical outlier performance, in defiance of the trend, outside of the standard deviation. If Mercer is a good football team, you admit they laid an egg, because to suggest they're on the same average level as ETSU is to suggest that Mercer is not a great football team. I've given Mercer the benefit of the doubt by saying they laid an egg

B) I don't know if ETSU is 2 scores better than Wofford. They could be. Anything can happen on any given saturday (see standard deviation and outliers), but if we're going to postulate the average performance of the team (i.e what to expect), I'd say Wofford will be favored against ETSU (as Mercer was). I never said Wofford dominated Furman, though we played a more solid game than people give us credit. Basically, you're using the transitive property, when the transitive property doesn't work in football. You have to look at average performance and make deductions accordingly by comparing expected outcomes

Right now, quite frankly it looks like you're ranting a lunatic, grasping at any straw you can to justify the downright looney assertion that Mercer and Furman are in the top 3 of the Socon. For Furman, it's not so looney, but with Mercer it's down right bat ****.

You keep using words like "control" which have a set meaning in statistical terms, but it doesn't seem like you understand that? You can't quantify player development in the way you've used it. Did Furman score more points against ETSU and Chattanooga than against Wofford because of player development or because their defense is better? Well, everyone's improving over the course of the year, but the parameters by which that is demonstrable is limited. It's much more likely that they scored at that rate because their defenses aren't as great, and it's a solid hypothesis because if you compare the defensive performances of ETSU and Chatt against decent offenses, they are absolutely terrible.

When you resort to un-quantifiable assertions about player development it gives you cover to make any assertion you want about any team (thus is the case with any unquantifable assertion). But the kicker is this: if these changes were actually real, you would see it manifest in the stats! And by that logic, Furman would have to continue to score more and more points every week (regardless of the defense they played). Basically if you try to quantify your hypothesis, you can't test it unless you cross reference it with other variables...such as the quality of the opponent.

The difference between your method and my method is that I can actually show my work with a dataset. It's inherently probabilistic, by making the assertion I concede I could be wrong by definition but I'm using math to make my case, not a subjective gut feeling.

[Reign of Terrier]

I just find it odd that I can't make a general assertion based upon the data we've seen so far (Wofford should be favored in 4 of our last 5 FCS game), when it's a given that outliers happen and that the standard deviation makes it a small margin of error, without being called/implied arrogant or cocky

Meanwhile, the guy who has Furman and Mercer bias written into his avatar can make assertions about the latter in defiance of the data, dismissing the points he doesn't like and embracing the clear outliers that support his argument. I mean, this is mathematically, empirically, measurably biased.

Get outta here!

[FUBeAR]

So you like to use averages when they fit your narrative ("maybe Mercer could win out and everyone lose out") but you refuse to acknowledge them when they don't (i.e looking at Mercer's average performance, given conference competition, they aren't in the top 3 right now). That's called bias. In more statistical terms: you're assuming that Mercer performance on a trend line has just been outside of the standard deviation even though the data points just suppose it is the trend line. The Socon is close enough to where every team (sans VMI) is in a standard deviation of each other

I don't deny that Wofford could lose any of our next 5 games, but I'm confident because our trend line suggests a higher probability of success.

No, my point is if you look at the Auburn game, it was the fumbles that kept it close. The performance was an outlier by definition if 1/3 of your forced turnovers come in one game. If you're going to evaluate a team, you have to look at the trend. Take out the Auburn game and Mercer averages 2 turnovers a game (which is great!), but to reasonably say that this performance was indicative of Mercer's *average* talent and not an outlier, you either have to say that Mercer is the kind of team where 5 turnovers is the trend or their defense is comparable to a power five team. Both are unlikely. That how you designate outliers, you ask yourself under what condition would this data point be the norm.


5 W's.
Otherwise I agree.


A) you lost the game. Mistakes still count. ETSU is good but not a playoff-caliber team. So yes, Mercer Laid an egg, I'm sorry that offends you. By the very definition of laying an egg, Mercer laid an egg, and if they didn't lay an egg they are a bad football team. Missing a snap on an XP and losing the game accordingly is still losing the game. It's also not 100% certain that ETSU wouldn't have tried to tie it with a two point conversion.

Putting it in statistical terms, laying an egg is basically having a low statistical outlier performance, in defiance of the trend, outside of the standard deviation. If Mercer is a good football team, you admit they laid an egg, because to suggest they're on the same average level as ETSU is to suggest that Mercer is not a great football team. I've given Mercer the benefit of the doubt by saying they laid an egg

B) I don't know if ETSU is 2 scores better than Wofford. They could be. Anything can happen on any given saturday (see standard deviation and outliers), but if we're going to postulate the average performance of the team (i.e what to expect), I'd say Wofford will be favored against ETSU (as Mercer was). I never said Wofford dominated Furman, though we played a more solid game than people give us credit. Basically, you're using the transitive property, when the transitive property doesn't work in football. You have to look at average performance and make deductions accordingly by comparing expected outcomes

Right now, quite frankly it looks like you're ranting a lunatic, grasping at any straw you can to justify the downright looney assertion that Mercer and Furman are in the top 3 of the Socon. For Furman, it's not so looney, but with Mercer it's down right bat ****.

You keep using words like "control" which have a set meaning in statistical terms, but it doesn't seem like you understand that? You can't quantify player development in the way you've used it. Did Furman score more points against ETSU and Chattanooga than against Wofford because of player development or because their defense is better? Well, everyone's improving over the course of the year, but the parameters by which that is demonstrable is limited. It's much more likely that they scored at that rate because their defenses aren't as great, and it's a solid hypothesis because if you compare the defensive performances of ETSU and Chatt against decent offenses, they are absolutely terrible.

When you resort to un-quantifiable assertions about player development it gives you cover to make any assertion you want about any team (thus is the case with any unquantifable assertion). But the kicker is this: if these changes were actually real, you would see it manifest in the stats! And by that logic, Furman would have to continue to score more and more points every week (regardless of the defense they played). Basically if you try to quantify your hypothesis, you can't test it unless you cross reference it with other variables...such as the quality of the opponent.

The difference between your method and my method is that I can actually show my work with a dataset. It's inherently probabilistic, by making the assertion I concede I could be wrong by definition but I'm using math to make my case, not a subjective gut feeling.

LOL

This is...

1/3 expressing & refuting claims not actually made,

1/3 continuing to attempt to present opinions as mathematically-supported facts, and...

1/3 this... https://youtu.be/1Xpb_9fhoBM

[Reign of Terrier]

Here's some Math:
28>27
26>23

4 wins for Wofford over Mercer in 4 years (no need to control for the relative quality of either team)

0: The number of playoff appearances Mercer will have going into the 2018 season

I think those numbers may be over your head though. Your math skills are pretty bad.

If I wanted to mathematically prove anything about any of the teams, here's the formula:
xO=number of scoring offensive possessions per game (in conference play)
yO= number of total offensive possessions per game (in conference play)

xD=number of scoring possessions opponents have had when you're on defense (in conference play)
yD=""total""

xO/yO=O expected offensive scoring
xD/yD=D expected opponent scoring

Then, between two teams, average the numbers (Ox.5+Dx.5), then compare them. multiple by 7 and you'll get the max score, multiply them by 3, and you'll get the minimum score. That'll give you a range of what to expect.

Anyone can use this formula to get a relative baseline of what to expect. you can get more creative and an calculate your kicker's field goal %, the probability of trying field goal's etc, to get more specific.

This is how probability and math works. It's a better measure than gut and unquantifiable metrics.

[BearDownMU]

I just find it odd that I can't make a general assertion based upon the data we've seen so far (Wofford should be favored in 4 of our last 5 FCS game), when it's a given that outliers happen and that the standard deviation makes it a small margin of error, without being called/implied arrogant or cocky

Meanwhile, the guy who has Furman and Mercer bias written into his avatar can make assertions about the latter in defiance of the data, dismissing the points he doesn't like and embracing the clear outliers that support his argument. I mean, this is mathematically, empirically, measurably biased.

Get outta here!

I think the disconnect here, with me at least, is you're using selective data to support an opinion. Regardless of your method (adjusting for the mean, removing outliers, regressing OOC statistics or any other process you picked up in your statistics course) you are still using data (selective data, in your own construct, I might add) to try and "prove" how good football teams are in relation to each other. lol

What's funny to me (and I think FUBeAR) is that I'm just saying my method (and again, I think FUBeAR's) is "I watched 'em all play, and my eyes tell me this". Which is exactly as valid as this derivative math you've attempted to present.

You're trying to determine strength of football teams. You don't turn into Pythagoras just because you cherry picked a few stats and arranged them in the way you think is most relevant. I give you props for the thought you've put into it. But you can't act like your method is somehow superior. lol

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the disconnect here, with me at least, is you're using selective data to support an opinion. Regardless of your method (adjusting for the mean, removing outliers, regressing OOC statistics or any other process you picked up in your statistics course) you are still using data (selective data, in your own construct, I might add) to try and "prove" how good football teams are in relation to each other. lol

What's funny to me (and I think FUBeAR) is that I'm just saying my method (and again, I think FUBeAR's) is "I watched 'em all play, and my eyes tell me this". Which is exactly as valid as this derivative math you've attempted to present.

You're trying to determine strength of football teams. You don't turn into Pythagoras just because you cherry picked a few stats and arranged them in the way you think is most relevant. I give you props for the thought you've put into it. But you can't act like your method is somehow superior. lol

I've stated multiple times that this is an insufficient dataset. 3 games is not a lot; FUBear was the first to suggest his system was mathematical, even though it was clearly vaguely constructed as a means to justify ranking Mercer in the top 3. I've also emphasized that teams 1-5 are within a standard deviation of each other. We're all in the margin of error and given the incomplete dataset it's unwise to assert any of these teams is mathematically clearly better than anyone else. My purpose here was to point out the clear flaws and biases in his method.

Second, the problem with "I see them with my eyes" is that it's a good way to let your biases creep in. In a weird way, not watching the teams play can be a way to remove bias, because the performance as captured by the stats is an aggregate of a total performance. A single statistic doesn't tell you what happened on a single play (from the players blocking, runners cutting up field, etc) but the cummulation of stats gives you an aggregate understanding of predictive performance.

So, this dataset is not ideal. I won't feel confident for another few weeks over knowing enough about the conference. The best way is to not look at game outcomes but to use the method I've already explained in a prior comment and cross referencing with remaining games. It's a lot of work, so I haven't done it. But it could be done.

The only thing you should take away from what I've written is that A) there's a mathematical way to figure this stuff out B) FuBear is wrong C) we won't be able to crunch this math reliably without more data.

I have my opinion as to who is better among Furman/Samford/Western Carolina/Mercer, but right now the only thing I can say with mathematical confidence is that Mercer is a step below the back (because of their loss to ETSU), while Western is a step above (because of their quality win against Samford). That leaves Samford and Furman on a coin flip. Once we get more data, that assessment will change (almost certainly).

[FUBeAR]

Wofford should be favored in 4 of our last 5 FCS game

Perfect example.

If THE Citadel comes out tomorrow & snozzleknocks the Terriers from THE Ashley to THE Cooper and back to THE Battery, do you really think Wofford will be favored over Samford? They won't. Everyone will say Wofford is dang lucky to not be 1-5 & that they were finally exposed by THE Citadel.

Wofford is favored by less than a TD over THE Citadel tomorrow. That's it.

Stating that Euclid has deigned that Wofford will be favored over Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI plays as rather cocky and arrogant.

[FUBeAR]

B) FuBear is wrong

the only thing I can say with mathematical confidence is that Mercer is a step below the back (because of their loss to ETSU), while Western is a step above (because of their quality win against Samford). That leaves Samford and Furman on a coin flip.

1) My wife always begins with the exact same premise

2) Do you SERIOUSLY not understand the subjectivity you are including in this analysis? It seems that you don't. So, unlike FUBeAR, as long as you continue to delude yourself into thinking your opinions are scientific facts, further discussion is pointless.

3) GO BELLHOPS! BEAT WOFFORD!!

[Reign of Terrier]

Perfect example.

If THE Citadel comes out tomorrow & snozzleknocks the Terriers from THE Ashley to THE Cooper and back to THE Battery, do you really think Wofford will be favored over Samford? They won't. Everyone will say Wofford is dang lucky to not be 1-5 & that they were finally exposed by THE Citadel.

Wofford is favored by less than a TD over THE Citadel tomorrow. That's it.

Stating that Euclid has deigned that Wofford will be favored over Samford, Chattanooga, ETSU, and VMI plays as rather cocky and arrogant.

hmmmm....we only play 5 more FCS games and you admit that we are favored against the Citadel, so logically we could still not be favored against Samford and we would still in fact be favored in 4 of our last 5 FCS games. So my original comment stands by your own admission.

There's a difference between saying we're favored and we definitely willwin. One is a mathematical statement that we use every week in college football. Mercer is favored against Chattanooga. Furman is favored against VMI. Western is favored against ETSU. Does that mean they will win? No, but mathematically and given what we understand thus far about the teams they are more likely to win and thus are favored.

It's almost as if you are proving my point in misunderstanding how probabilistic modeling works in the first place.

It's not cocky to say we are favored, just as it's not masochistic to say that South Carolina should be favored against us in week 12. It's an empirical assessment of a multitude of factors.

[Reign of Terrier]

1) My wife always begins with the exact same premise

2) Do you SERIOUSLY not understand the subjectivity you are including in this analysis? It seems that you don't. So, unlike FUBeAR, as long as you continue to delude yourself into thinking your opinions are scientific facts, further discussion is pointless.

3) GO BELLHOPS! BEAT WOFFORD!!

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how probabilistic modeling works or the scientific method for that matter. This modeling won't tell anyone what's correct 100% of the time, but it will be more reliable as a baseline than others (i.e gut feeling)

[Reign of Terrier]

I get the feeling that the reason FUBear zealously protests Wofford's decency as a team and defends Mercer as a team more than mediocrity is a result of envy. I've said very little about Wofford being a dominant team using this math...because I don't believe they are and I don't think the math supports that assessment. I'm just saying, given our mathematical averages, it's a reasonable, empirically supported position to assume that Wofford should be favored to win at least 4 of our next five IF teams play to their average. That's not saying we will do so, just that, by any mathematical standard of assessing risk and outcome, that's true.

But there's a strong case that Mercer isn't good enough of a team offensively to win 7 games. That's based upon their average performances thus far. But that's inconvenient so he dismisses the stats and the methodology. Heck, he keeps saying its opinion, but not how. You beat math with math.

Me thinks he doth protest too much

[FUBeAR]

This modeling won't tell anyone what's correct 100% of the time

Brad, what do you think?

https://youtu.be/OXMlL_cr8eo

[BearDownMU]

Lol. Just listen to yourself. If Wofford fielded an alumni word salad team, you guys would be first in the conference power rankings based on your participation alone.

I'll make it simpler for you. If we went to Vegas and bet every SoCon game all year long, you think your modeling system you came up with on the fly would be any more correctly predictive than my eyes? If you do, you should have never spent any money on that Wofford education. You oughta be out in Vegas giving RJ Bell a run for his money.

[FUBeAR]

listen to yourself. If Wofford fielded an alumni word salad team, you would be first in the conference.

LOL - PERFECT.

Below is what these bad at math, uninformed, unintelligent, envious of others’ successes in Football eyes see when I try to decipher YT’s posts.

https://www.colourbox.com/preview/8183740-statistics.jpg

[FurmanWins!!]

Guys, we get to see some football tomorrow xsmiley_wix Woop Woop!


https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/919011019900497926

[BearDownMU]

Bane!

Nice video...

[Terrier19]

LETS GO!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzToNo7A-94

[OL FU]

I took a left turn at the AGS sign and accidentally walked into a probability and statistics class.:(

[FUGameBreaker]

Guys, we get to see some football tomorrow xsmiley_wix Woop Woop!


https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/919011019900497926



xthumbsupx

[Terrier19]

I took a left turn at the AGS sign and accidentally walked into a probability and statistics class.:(

GOOD NEWS IS ITS GAMEDAY....ONLY STATS THAT MATTER ON GAMEDAY IS THE SCOREBOARD.......Good luck today...

[Toby]

Stats may be interesting and fun, but football is also a game of emotion (e.g. Syracuse and Cal upsets yesterday were both 3 TD underdogs). If the Wofford football team is over confident today and Citadel comes out hungry, you can throw all the stats out the window. I'm getting a feeling that Citadel may just sneak up on Wofford today. The situation just seems ripe.

[ElCid]

Stats may be interesting and fun, but football is also a game of emotion (e.g. Syracuse and Cal upsets yesterday). If the Wofford football team is over confident today and Citadel comes out hungry, you can throw all the stats out the window. I'm getting a feeling that Citadel may just sneak up on Wofford today. The situation just seems ripe.

Wishful thinking on many peoples part. Unfortunately for the rest of the SOCON, Wofford has been successful because they have a coach who has been very good in not allowing teams to sneak up on them.

[Toby]

Wishful thinking on many peoples part. Unfortunately for the rest of the SOCON, Wofford has been successful because they have a coach who has been very good in not allowing teams to sneak up on them.

Thinking vs. Feeling.......

[Terrier19]

Wishful thinking on many peoples part. Unfortunately for the rest of the SOCON, Wofford has been successful because they have a coach who has been very good in not allowing teams to sneak up on them.

Yopu called it exactly right my friend...I see a common thread every week the same mantra....this is the week, no this is the week Wofford is "over confident"...well now its the week..Where has Wofford ever shown to be "over confident and what exactly displays that?? Do Wofford players woof at opponents?? Do Wofford players play dirty, act entitled??? Absolutely not, Coach Ayers takes no part of such and holds our players accountable......I appreciate your honesty in your thoughts on the games.....That being said....lets lock in for a good ol rivalry game. Injury free foootball, and may the best team win...

People keep trying to slide shade in there each week...Wofford overconfident, Wofford not that good......WE will let the results sort all off that out....then we can all rad about next week Wofford being overconfident and not as good as record shows against Samford....

[Terrier19]

Folks should simply say you want Wofford to lose to better your teams position.....all this rhetoric about at a team thats won 11 of its last 12 (only loss in the quarterfinals in Double OT) against a tough Youngstown State team being not as good is just foolish...

[ElCid]

Thinking vs. Feeling.......

My bad. You did say feelingxthumbsupx

Sure hope your feelings are accurate.

[Toby]

Yopu called it exactly right my friend...I see a common thread every week the same mantra....this is the week, no this is the week Wofford is "over confident"...well now its the week..Where has Wofford ever shown to be "over confident and what exactly displays that?? Do Wofford players woof at opponents?? Do Wofford players play dirty, act entitled??? Absolutely not, Coach Ayers takes no part of such and holds our players accountable......I appreciate your honesty in your thoughts on the games.....That being said....lets lock in for a good ol rivalry game. Injury free foootball, and may the best team win...

People keep trying to slide shade in there each week...Wofford overconfident, Wofford not that good......WE will let the results sort all off that out....then we can all rad about next week Wofford being overconfident and not as good as record shows against Samford....

This. This is where some of that "feeling" is coming from. (Yes I know I ended my sentence in with a preposition).��

[Terrier19]

This. This is where some of that "feeling" is coming from. (Yes I know I ended my sentence in with a preposition).��

Perfect...hold onto that "FEELING' that the fans have that somehow translates to the field of play xchinscratchxxchinscratchxxchinscratchxxchinscratc hxxchinscratchxxchinscratchx

[PaladinFan]

Folks should simply say you want Wofford to lose to better your teams position.....all this rhetoric about at a team thats won 11 of its last 12 (only loss in the quarterfinals in Double OT) against a tough Youngstown State team being not as good is just foolish...

There's no question Wofford has been really good. Let's also not act like they are running teams off the field. Their competition is in right in their hip pocket.

[Terrier19]

There's no question Wofford has been really good. Let's also not act like they are running teams off the field. Their competition is in right in their hip pocket.

Never said otherwise....never really worried about point margins......Wofford style of play lends to closer than needed games.....as long as we do what we have done for the last couple seasons I am ok with it....WIns are wins.....L's are L's.....everything else is speculation and conjecture IMO....

[PaladinFan]

Never said otherwise....never really worried about point margins......Wofford style of play lends to closer than needed games.....as long as we do what we have done for the last couple seasons I am ok with it....WIns are wins.....L's are L's.....everything else is speculation and conjecture IMO....

Right. Wins are wins. But instead of discussing Wofford's dominance it might be more appropriate to say, "we've got a good team and benefited from a few fortunate bounces"

[Terrier19]

Right. Wins are wins. But instead of discussing Wofford's dominance it might be more appropriate to say, "we've got a good team and benefited from a few fortunate bounces"

Where are we exactly discussing "Wofford's Dominance???"

Feel free to cut and paste.....I will hang around and await your answer......

[FUGameBreaker]

Good win Paladins, bring on Mercer!

[Reign of Terrier]

Lol. Just listen to yourself. If Wofford fielded an alumni word salad team, you guys would be first in the conference power rankings based on your participation alone.

I'll make it simpler for you. If we went to Vegas and bet every SoCon game all year long, you think your modeling system you came up with on the fly would be any more correctly predictive than my eyes? If you do, you should have never spent any money on that Wofford education. You oughta be out in Vegas giving RJ Bell a run for his money.

The short answer to this question is

yes.

[Reign of Terrier]

If we want another example of unscientific/mathematical thinking, I love that your sample size that's led to the conclusion "Wofford's overconfident" is a single poster on the internet who has made the vanilla comment that they should be favored against the bottom 3 teams in the Socon + the Citadel.

Try harder

[Mocs123]

Congrats to Mercer.

We still can run the ball and overall are pretty inept on offense. I do think Copeland will be a good QB in the future.

Run Defense was solid, but our pass defense sucked.

I am not sure how we have gotten so bad so quick.

[Toby]

Perfect...hold onto that "FEELING' that the fans have that somehow translates to the field of play xchinscratchxxchinscratchxxchinscratchxxchinscratc hxxchinscratchxxchinscratchx

"I've got a feeling.....". Well Citadel is looking good and Wofford seems rattled as evidenced by the unsportsmanlike penalty on that last Citadel drive before halftime. This just seemed like a trap game for Wofford, but we will see what happens in the second half. Citadel's clock management at the end is the half was awful, but it worked out for them.

[Reign of Terrier]

Things are going about as good as they could for the Citadel in the first half. They are executing and we aren't.

Their offense is doing better than I expected it to (I think Wofford has problems in the front 7, which is weird because we bring back pretty much everyone from last year). My prediction for holding the Chuck Town Dawgs to 10 obviously isn't panning out. This game is gonna be a lot closer than I thought. The question in the second half is whether or not the Citadel can maintain this level of play or if they "regress to the mean" offensively.

I don't know the answer to that question, but as a Wofford fan I'm hoping they do.

[citdog]

Things are going about as good as they could for the Citadel in the first half. They are executing and we aren't.

Their offense is doing better than I expected it to (I think Wofford has problems in the front 7, which is weird because we bring back pretty much everyone from last year). My prediction for holding the Chuck Town Dawgs to 10 obviously isn't panning out. This game is gonna be a lot closer than I thought. The question in the second half is whether or not the Citadel can maintain this level of play or if they "regress to the mean" offensively.

I don't know the answer to that question, but as a Wofford fan I'm hoping they do.


The question is will The Citadel score more points than tears your brother cried in the barracks during his BRIEF career as a Cadet before he called home and had your mother come and pick his little bitch ass up because it was "too hard"...

[Toby]

At half, Cit with 185 yards to Wof 120. And Cit with about double the time of possession. Wofford seems a bit rattled and tired on defense. It's going to be an interesting second half.

[Toby]

Congrats to Mercer.

We still can run the ball and overall are pretty inept on offense. I do think Copeland will be a good QB in the future.

Run Defense was solid, but our pass defense sucked.

I am not sure how we have gotten so bad so quick.

i agree that Copeland has a lot of potential. He has kinda been thrown to the wolves. Makes me wonder if Weatherly regrets leaving....

Mercer now feeling the pain of a missed extra point and missed short FG at ETSU.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford throws a bomb down field to tie it at 14.

[Toby]

Citadel gets a TO at the Wofford 17. Then fumbles back to Wofford at the one. Then Cit gets a Safety. 16-14 Cit.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The question is will The Citadel score more points than tears your brother cried in the barracks during his BRIEF career as a Cadet before he called home and had your mother come and pick his little bitch ass up because it was "too hard"...

Hey are we telling personal stories trying to demean others on here over a football game now citdog? If we are, I got some stories to tell. Let me know.

I always thought it would be sort of a dick move but you apparently think we should be doing this? Leave the f'n family **** out of this.

[OL FU]

Hey are we telling personal stories trying to demean others on here over a football game now citdog? If we are, I got some stories to tell. Let me know.

I always thought it would be sort of a dick move but you apparently think we should be doing this? Leave the f'n family **** out of this.

Agree!!!

[PaladinFan]

The only thing ignored more than the 55 mph speed limit is that Wofford and Citadel's offensive linemen move before the snap.

[Reign of Terrier]

You're right Cit Dog, my older brother spent a month at the Citadel and decided it wasn't for him. He couldn't finish there.



Just like the Citadel Bulldogs tonight

(I don't like talking smack, but you can suck on one little guy)

[Toby]

Congrats to Wofford. Pulled another squeaker out. I'd be pulling my hair out over the 2nd half offensive play calling if I were a Cit fan, but alas I have little hair left to pull out after the Mercer/ETSU play calling. :)

[BearDownMU]

The short answer to this question is

yes.

Lol. At least your committed to your current level of delusional.

[Reign of Terrier]

If we're talking about managing probabilities, I'm confident in my ability to do so. No one's an oracle, but probability theory helps. I learned it in college.

[PaladinFan]

That may put Citadel's playoff hopes on life support. Only 2 D1 wins, both against uninspiring competition. Assuming they don't beat Clemson, they'll have to win out their SoCon slate to make 7 wins.

[Toby]

If we're talking about managing probabilities, I'm confident in my ability to do so. No one's an oracle, but probability theory helps. I learned it in college.

Yep. You're a stud. A literal swami. Congrats! But don't trip on your victory lap. :)

[Reign of Terrier]

On a serious note, credit to the Citadel. They played one of their best games of the season. We couldn't run the ball worth ****.

That was all guts on the Citadel's part. They're a much better team than I thought. I thought the Socon was teams 1-5 and then everyone else, but it's obvious if the Citadel plays a good game with limited turnovers, they can beat anyone.

Before anyone talks about power rankings in the future, I think it's a fair assessment to say that the only reason Wofford is #1, it's because of the final result of the first six games. Any team can beat any team. In some ways Wofford is lucky, but in other ways when you're in the right position, you get lucky.

- - - Updated - - -


Yep. You're a stud. A literal swami. Congrats! But don't trip on your victory lap. :)

Just to be clear, I'm talking about my confidence in assessing probabilities, not in assessing Wofford as some GOAT team, because we aren't.

[Toby]

On a serious note, credit to the Citadel. They played one of their best games of the season. We couldn't run the ball worth ****.

That was all guts on the Citadel's part. They're a much better team than I thought. I thought the Socon was teams 1-5 and then everyone else, but it's obvious if the Citadel plays a good game with limited turnovers, they can beat anyone.

Before anyone talks about power rankings in the future, I think it's a fair assessment to say that the only reason Wofford is #1, it's because of the final result of the first six games. Any team can beat any team. In some ways Wofford is lucky, but in other ways when you're in the right position, you get lucky.

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Just to be clear, I'm talking about my confidence in assessing probabilities, not in assessing Wofford as some GOAT team, because we aren't.

A little too late for some humility.....but that's cool. Your probability assessment ability is awesome!

[walliver]

Congrats to Wofford. Pulled another squeaker out. I'd be pulling my hair out over the 2nd half offensive play calling if I were a Cit fan, but alas I have little hair left to pull out after the Mercer/ETSU play calling. :)

The only thing worse that the Citadel’s play calling was Wofford’s play calling for all but the last drive.

What this game does is resolve the great theological debate and prove that the creator of the universe is Methodist😀


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[CID1990]

Our problem is very simple, and comes down to one thing: more than half of our OL was playing on Friday nights this time last year. Our defense is still very good, but our offense gives them very little help.

I’ve been suggesting for some time that this would be a down year, and right now the only result that surprises me (much) was the Samford first half. Everything else is going down pretty much the way I thought it would.

[dungeonjoe]

Hats off to the Citadel. They played a great game. I think theirs was the superior game plan.

[Reign of Terrier]

Our problem is very simple, and comes down to one thing: more than half of our OL was playing on Friday nights this time last year. Our defense is still very good, but our offense gives them very little help.

I’ve been suggesting for some time that this would be a down year, and right now the only result that surprises me (much) was the Samford first half. Everything else is going down pretty much the way I thought it would.

As I said at the time, the Citadel's first half gameplan was perfect and they did everything they needed (in the first half) to be in the right position. I think the inconsistency can be attributed to youth and inexperience, and that goes for their prior performances with fumbles as well.

In some ways, this game was a lot like the matchup last year. We had one team we knew was good, and another that made a couple mistakes but was capable of winning. They played the perfect game for the first three quarters, but let it slip away.

As far as I'm concerned the Citadel is here to stay as a program, and though the contrarian may say that the glow of the Houston era is fading, they aren't a bad team or even a trending downward. They're just really young this year and this game certainly won't be the last time they have someone on the ropes this year.