Maine @ Villanova

[Gangtackle11]

When: Saturday, October 7th 1pm
Where: @ Villanova
TV: CBSSports.com CollegeSportsLive

Maine (1-2; 0-1) @ Villanova (3-2; 1-1)
Villanova leads series 10-9

Last Maine win: 10/26/2013 37-35 @ Villanova
Last Villanova win: 11/5/2016 26-7 @ Maine

[CHIP72]

Unlike most College Sports Live events, it appears this game has a free stream. (I checked the game listing on the iOS app.)

[Gangtackle11]

These are all must games with the CAA bunched up. Nova already behind the 8 ball with Albany loss.

Massey has it: Villanova 20 Maine 14
65% probability for Nova win.

[Gangtackle11]

5dimes has it:

Villanova -7 (37 total)

[Lehigh'98]

I like Maine to pull the upset here. The CAA seems like a bunch of solid, but not spectacular, teams this year besides JMU. A few will probably hit their stride soon though and take it up a level.

[Gangtackle11]

Coach Ferrante on today's CAA call:

http://www.villanova.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100217aad.html

[RootinFerDukes]

If VU can’t contain Josh Mack, it’s going to be a long game. Root for Stanford to upset Utah and the wildcats might find their beloved V helmet and wildcat mascot featured on a certain network Saturday morning college football show the next week. Last time the spider mascot and cheerleaders got some decent screen time.

[Gangtackle11]

If VU can’t contain Josh Mack, it’s going to be a long game. Root for Stanford to upset Utah and the wildcats might find their beloved V helmet and wildcat mascot featured on a certain network Saturday morning college football show the next week. Last time the spider mascot and cheerleaders got some decent screen time.

We give up 56 ypg on the ground so far & it's been a strength of this defense the past 2 seasons.

In their last seven games, the Wildcats have held the opposition to just 318 total rushing yards on 183 carries (1.7 yards per carry). I believe they were top 3 for 2016 in all of FCS against the run.

So if Maine runs it effectively they probably will be fine, but there is plenty of evidence that says they won't.

[RootinFerDukes]

Josh Mack will get his yards. It was a battle to contain him as much as we did. VU will only stop him so much.

[Dukie95]

Yeah, Josh Mack is hard to tackle. Running D is one of JMU's strengths and he still had a day against us.

[dunbar]

Micah Wright also returns for Maine on Saturday. You can't call Maine's offense one dimensional with targets like Edwards and Wright, even with a redshirt-freshman quarterback. Ferguson also returns home to play in front of his big family. I expect a career day from him.

[Dukie95]

Also, Maine coming of their second "bye" in three weeks.

[Gangtackle11]

Micah Wright also returns for Maine on Saturday. You can't call Maine's offense one dimensional with targets like Edwards and Wright, even with a redshirt-freshman quarterback. Ferguson also returns home to play in front of his big family. I expect a career day from him.

Listen, I respect Maine & we are dealing with injuries, but you guys are making them sound like the '85 Bears not the Maine Black Bears.

They are 0-2 in the conference. They lost to UNH & JMU. We don't seem to play UNH anymore so it's hard for me to gauge them, but they did lose to Holy Cross who lost to Lafayette who lost 59-0 to Villanova.

I'm not going to hold that chain of events against them, but don't expect one of the better FCS defenses last season & this so far to fold up like a cheap suit. You may be disappointed.

I expect a close game. The pros have us 7 point favorite. You guys know a lot more than them too?

I'm resigned to the Al Davis theory of "Just Win Baby" this season. 2-0 or 55-54 is fine with me.

Btw: I heard all this last season after Maine gave JMU a tough game. We went up to Maine thinking we would see a tough team. We won 26-7 with Maine having a better QB. Their only score on a kick return.

Talk all you want about your career days. The 'Cats will be waiting for you. That said I think it's a close game.

I love the pundits here picking Maine. Makes me even more confident about my 'Cats.

Oh yeah, early forecast has the game around 80 degrees. Might want to leave your LL Bean gear back on Sebago Lake.

See ya Saturday.

[POD Knows]

8 to 4. Nova.

[Gangtackle11]

8 to 4. Nova.

shh.....here it's not. Yes maybe in the weekly picks, but I'm creating the dragon to slay.....xpeacex

[Mattymc727]

This should be a very low scoring affair. Whoever wins the turnover battle will win. Maine has a pretty lackluster offense, but are well rested. I haven't seen enough of Nova to comment.

Its a "show me" game for both teams, should be a fun one!

[Nova09]

8 to 4. Nova.


shh.....here it's not. Yes maybe in the weekly picks, but I'm creating the dragon to slay.....xpeacex

I thought it was a score prediction, not unrealistic for the freshman QBs. Though don't know if it would be more likely for Nova to get to 8 including 4 2 made fgs or just rely entirely on safeties

[vutomcat]

Love the passion Gangtackle. Home game helps. Injuries won't. I liked the option game of the freshman QB against Towson. He looks a little like JR, a little slower and not quite as accurate (at least right now).

I wasn't crazy about Ferrante's play calling against Albany. He needs to have a good game as well. I would like to see our dbacks be a little more aggressive as well. Seems like with the talent and experience back there we should have more turnovers. Finally, isn't it great to have a kicker!

Go CATS! 20-17 prediction on a last second VU field goal.

[Billnonymous]

The pros have us 7 point favorite. You guys know a lot more than them too?

The "pros" are using that line to evenly divide the bettors, not make a prediction on the game.

[Gangtackle11]

The "pros" are using that line to evenly divide the bettors, not make a prediction on the game.

OK. You are correct about how they set spreads, but it does give a slight indication on how the teams are assessed. Otherwise they all would be pick'em games.

How about Massey giving Nova a 65% chance of winning by a score of 20-14. Is that a prediction?

We can wrestle in the weeds. I get it some think Maine because they ran the ball in their LOSS to JMU are a great pick. Predictions don't mean squat nor does anything written in this forum. (Except my stuff - haha)

The players & coaches will determine the outcome. I'll take my chances with a highly ranked defense & home field.

Maine finds a way to effectively run the ball then its a big plus for them. I hear they have a solid offensive line. I also hear their defense is meh & that may be all our meh offense needs to be successful.

The loser of this game will have dug a mighty big hole if they are to be a FCS playoff team. One that they most likely won't get out of.

I'm thinking I wouldn't be ordering a tombstone just yet for Villanova because a running back had a good game vs. the Dukies.

That's it. Plain & simple.

Good luck Maine! Enjoy the nice day on the Main Line. (We sell beer now too!)

GO CATS!!!! xpeacex




.

[Billnonymous]

OK. You are correct about how they set spreads, but it does give a slight indication on how the teams are assessed. Otherwise they all would be pick'em games.

How about Massey giving Nova a 65% chance of winning by a score of 20-14. Is that a prediction?

We can wrestle in the weeds. I get it some think Maine because they ran the ball in their LOSS to JMU are a great pick. Predictions don't mean squat nor does anything written in this forum. (Except my stuff - haha)

The players & coaches will determine the outcome. I'll take my chances with a highly ranked defense & home field.

Maine finds a way to effectively run the ball then its a big plus for them. I hear they have a solid offensive line. I also hear their defense is meh & that may be all our meh offense needs to be successful.

The loser of this game will have dug a mighty big hole if they are to be a FCS playoff team. One that they most likely won't get out of.

I'm thinking I wouldn't be ordering a tombstone just yet for Villanova because a running back had a good game vs. the Dukies.

That's it. Plain & simple.

Good luck Maine! Enjoy the nice day on the Main Line. (We sell beer now too!)

GO CATS!!!! xpeacex




.

How about Massey giving LSU a 94% chance of beating Troy by a score of 30-7? That was also their prediction. I don't give Massey that much credit, their predictions mirror the betting line fairly consistently.

[Gangtackle11]

How about Massey giving LSU a 94% chance of beating Troy by a score of 30-7? That was also their prediction. I don't give Massey that much credit, their predictions mirror the betting line fairly consistently.

Or the other way around since Massey has their updated predictions out Sunday & betting lines on FCS come out later.

The Sportsbooks don't pay much attention to FCS wagering & use ratings like Massey to help set their lines.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

If Bednarczyk is out I really like the Black Bears chances and getting back our #1 WR Micah Wright is big as well. Your strength is run D and ours is the running game so we may have to count on our red shirt frosh to have a better game than he did against JMU, he had looked good in the other two games against UNH and Bryant. Weird schedule with Maine only playing one game in the last 3 weeks. Giving the edge to Maine because of the xtra experience of our redshirt frosh QB vs yours. Maine should have a good following as so many players and alumni are from the greater Philly-NY area.
Maine 21 Nova 17.

[Billnonymous]

Or the other way around since Massey has their updated predictions out Sunday & betting lines on FCS come out later.

The Sportsbooks don't pay much attention to FCS wagering & use ratings like Massey to help set their lines.

yeah, right.

[jmu007]

Maine ran this one running pay that gave JMU fits all day with Mack. It was a either a direct dive up the gut or a counter, not sure which, but they'd pull the guard and smash right off center with Mack and it was like a guaranteed 4 yards a lot of the day. If VU can stop that more power to them, but JMU sure couldn't for a long portion of the game.

[Gangtackle11]

yeah, right.

Im glad you agree. xpeacex

[Gangtackle11]

If Bednarczyk is out I really like the Black Bears chances and getting back our #1 WR Micah Wright is big as well. Your strength is run D and ours is the running game so we may have to count on our red shirt frosh to have a better game than he did against JMU, he had looked good in the other two games against UNH and Bryant. Weird schedule with Maine only playing one game in the last 3 weeks. Giving the edge to Maine because of the xtra experience of our redshirt frosh QB vs yours. Maine should have a good following as so many players and alumni are from the greater Philly-NY area.
Maine 21 Nova 17.

You'll really like your pick then. Bednarczyk left Towson game and was on crutches. Probably not seeing him this week.

The backup Jack Schetelich struggled passing, but has legs that remind Nova faithful of John Robertson. Let's see how Jack looks with a week of prep & knowing he's going to play.

It's been awhile since the defense had a major breakdown against the run.

[Billnonymous]

Im glad you agree. xpeacex

Thanks for the laugh.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

You'll really like your pick then. Bednarczyk left Towson game and was on crutches. Probably not seeing him this week.

The backup Jack Schetelich struggled passing, but has legs that remind Nova faithful of John Robertson. Let's see how Jack looks with a week of prep & knowing he's going to play.

It's been awhile since the defense had a major breakdown against the run.

Schetelich was 5 for 15 with 3 picks but did have 45yds on 9 carries. Hard to imagine he doesn't improve from those stats throwing the ball. Running QB's seem to give Maine fits, know Robertson and Bednarczyk certainly did.

[Gangtackle11]

Schetelich was 5 for 15 with 3 picks but did have 45yds on 9 carries. Hard to imagine he doesn't improve from those stats throwing the ball. Running QB's seem to give Maine fits, know Robertson and Bednarczyk certainly did.

2 were on him. 3rd was on the hands of a receiver & popped up for the 3rd Int. Im hoping it was jitters. He runs very well.

[Nova09]

Schetelich was 5 for 15 with 3 picks but did have 45yds on 9 carries. Hard to imagine he doesn't improve from those stats throwing the ball. Running QB's seem to give Maine fits, know Robertson and Bednarczyk certainly did.

And didn't complete a single 2nd half pass (but we won the half thanks to 2 one play td drives, set up by defense and ran in by schetelich)

Not gonna look through the stats or play by play but I do remember one sack for like 7 yards (not design run blown up) so really you're talking over 50 yards on 8 carries

[Gangtackle11]

Maine Game Notes:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/umaine.sidearmsports.com/documents/2017/10/4/GM4_Villanova.pdf

No Bednarczyk in the depth chart for Nova.,

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Maine Game Notes:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/umaine.sidearmsports.com/documents/2017/10/4/GM4_Villanova.pdf

No Bednarczyk in the depth chart for Nova.,

Excellent game notes, thanks for posting gangtacklexthumbsupx

[Gangtackle11]

Villanova Game Notes:

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/nova/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2017-18/release/release_20171006aaa.pdf

[Gangtackle11]

Starters out for Maine Game:

QB Zach Bednarczyk
RB Matt Gudzak
TE Ryan Bell
WR Changa Hodge
WR Alex Padovani

S Rob Rolle

Only 5 games in and all are gone for season or most it appears. Smh.

[KPSUL]

Nova with a 21-0 lead late in the 2nd Qtr. Villanova's defense is playing lights out - particularly against the run

[Nova09]

When's the part where Maine runs all over us start?

[caribbeanhen]

Was never sure what all the Maine love was about

[POD Knows]

Was never sure what all the Maine love was aboutYep, they weren't in my poll, they suck balls.

[flyrod]

Nova with a 21-0 lead late in the 2nd Qtr. Villanova's defense is playing lights out - particularly against the run
Thats the NOVA defense I have seen before...they woke up this game...and somebody must have given Maine's Defense sleeping pills cause they are playing like they their Mom's just tucked them in for a long winters nap.

damn thought this would be closer game for sure.

Gonna be a fun game Next week in Harrisonburg if NOVA brings the defense like they are today.

[Gangtackle11]

Way to show up Nova!!!

Good luck to Maine the rest of the way!!

[Mattymc727]

The Maine respect came from almost beating UNH and not letting JMU score 60. Turns out that UNH isn't very good and JMU fell asleep

[KPSUL]

The Maine respect came from almost beating UNH and not letting JMU score 60. Turns out that UNH isn't very good and JMU fell asleep

How many times do you plan to make the same post?

[Nova09]

Thats the NOVA defense I have seen before...they woke up this game...and somebody must have given Maine's Defense sleeping pills cause they are playing like they their Mom's just tucked them in for a long winters nap.

damn thought this would be closer game for sure.

Gonna be a fun game Next week in Harrisonburg if NOVA brings the defense like they are today.

Maine defense was fine, we were scoring on special teams and with our d, or at least our d setting it up. Our d might keep it close next week on scoreboard, but you will dominate game as our offense will be entirely predictable

[HailSzczur]

OUR DEFENSE IS BACK BABBBBBBBBYYYYYYYYYYY

Also note to Nova fans, try the beer garden. We spent the 1st half there and it was awesome! Stood right up at the fence and were like 10 yards from the back of the end zone. First TD and fumble were right in front of us. 10/10 would recommend.

[KPSUL]

OUR DEFENSE IS BACK BABBBBBBBBYYYYYYYYYYY

Also note to Nova fans, try the beer garden. We spent the 1st half there and it was awesome! Stood right up at the fence and were like 10 yards from the back of the end zone. First TD and fumble were right in front of us. 10/10 would recommend.

UNH recently planted its own Beer Garden in the same location.

[TheKingpin28]

UNH recently planted its own Beer Garden in the same location.

Can't remember, but I might have seen it, back in early October, when I was in Durham to go and see the stadium.

[RootinFerDukes]

I’m sure VU fans will take exception to this even though I say please don’t.

Maine was garbage on both sides of the ball today. That wasn’t the Maine team that showed up in Harrisonburg.

VU buried them for their mistakes.

[cx500d]

Interesting that Maine outgained Villanova, but all the fumbles and interceptions obviously killed them. Both offenses sucked.

[Nova09]

I’m sure VU fans will take exception to this even though I say please don’t.

Maine was garbage on both sides of the ball today. That wasn’t the Maine team that showed up in Harrisonburg.

VU buried them for their mistakes.

Why is it so hard for you to admit Nova has elite run defense? You couldn't stop Maine run 2 years in a row, we did both years. You have a better team and a national championship and will beat us in a week, stop posting stupid ass **** in this thread bc you're bored on bye week.

[Matt]

Villanova is legit. I am not looking forward to playing them with our sorry ass defense

[RootinFerDukes]

Why is it so hard for you to admit Nova has elite run defense? You couldn't stop Maine run 2 years in a row, we did both years. You have a better team and a national championship and will beat us in a week, stop posting stupid ass **** in this thread bc you're bored on bye week.

I watched the game. VU was good and Maine was bad. It was really both. They had many mistakes throughout.

[cx500d]

I watched the game. VU was good and Maine was bad. It was really both. They had many mistakes throughout.


They had too much time off probably...

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

That might be a valid point. Two bye weeks in essentially the first month of the season makes it hard to find a rhythm. Didn't watch the game but was a tad surprised on the score.

JMU better have improved ball security next week. I also think the loss to Albany shook this wildcats team to its core. They're the legit #2 team (right now) in the CAA no matter what the record says.

[Gangtackle11]

Villanova is a very solid defensive team. That keeps them in games against most teams. The offense is a box of chocolates & needs the defense to get them turnovers & actually score to get them into the high 20s/30s. When the defense doesn’t provide advantageous field position then its usually a low scoring game and more times than not a loss.

Yesterday Nova did not have their starting QB, leading rusher, leading receiver, best deep threat, & a starting OG.

Its a next man up mentality for sure. The backup QB now starter has John Robertson like running ability, but the passing game isn’t up to snuff so far. Nova ran 47 times & passed 8 yesterday.

The game turned early when Maine was inside the 5 and fumbled. Picked up by frosh DB for a FCS record tying 99 yard fumble return. That made it 14-0. Another game where the defense took away the run game (22 carries -18 yards) made Maine 1 dimensional (as I stated might happen in this thread) & their passing game wasn’t up to snuff (4 interceptions)

Playing at JMU is a tall task. It will take a Herculean effort.