Which conference has the best probablity to produce this season's national champion?

[Scrappy94]

Which conference has the highest probability of producing this season's national champion? Not the conference the team you think wins the national championship is in. The conference you think has the best chance to produce a national champion.

[ST_Lawson]

Which conference has the highest probability of producing this season's national champion?

MVFC...I think until/if there's a significant drop-off of the Bison, NDSU is just always going to be a serious contend, and this year, SDSU had a real shot due to having a decent defense and what will likely be an insanely good, record-setting offense.

Plus, lately the MVFC has been getting the most teams into the playoffs, so the odds are good for some team making it all the way through. I mean, how long has it been since a MVFC team wasn't in the championship game...6 years? Mostly that was NDSU, but even last year, no NDSU, but MVFC still represented.


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[ASU33]

MVFC

[Laker]

MVFC

[youcanbankit]

How about a top 3? Anybody's game this year.
MVCF
SOCON
BIG SKY

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

MVFC

[JSUSoutherner]

How about a top 3? Anybody's game this year.
MVFC
CAA
SOCON


FYP

[caribbeanhen]

CAA

[dewey]

I would say MVFC due to NDSU, SDSU and potentially YSU even though they lost a lot.

Dewey

[POD Knows]

BSC, UND is simply too strong for the rest of the field.

#bookit

[Redbird 4th & short]

BSC, UND is simply too strong for the rest of the field.

#bookit

MVFC 60% chance (NDSU, SDSU, and do not count out my ISU redbirds)
CAA 30% chance (JMU, Richmond .. UNH, Villanova lost a little too much, note JMU lost 6.2 starters on offense, plus a PR who average 28 yards per return)
Rest of field: 10% chance for rest of field (SHSU and Southern conference).

Big Sky will drop further this year .. EWU will still be very good (got QB and most of OL back, improving defense), but slip a bit nationally due to coaching change. UND will slip a lot - see below. Weber St had no business being in playoffs. Not sure about Cal Poly - they lost a lot on offense; and NAU gets stud QB back, but their defense (lost nearly 7 starters from a bad defense) will make it very hard for strong offense to get on field.

UND 2016 had easy home/away schedule pave way for their 9-2 record .. best/toughest regular season win was 2 OT over 4-7 South Dakota. Schedule flips in 2017 .. tougher FBS, add EWU at home, flip USD to road along with rest of big sky schedule. Defense was your strength last year .. you lose 6 of 11 on that side of ball, though just 2.1 of 11 on offense. So I see 9-2 from last year ... when they won 7 games by average of 6 points ... I see 7-4 at best this season.

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5538&s=286577

[uni88]

I see the MVFC and CAA pretty much neck-and-neck for it. MVFC with NDSU and SDSU leading the way and CAA with JMU and a host of challengers that have the potential to step up. After that it's the Big Sky with EWU.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

MVFC 60% chance (NDSU, SDSU, and do not count out my ISU redbirds)
CAA 30% chance (JMU, Richmond .. UNH, Villanova lost a little too much, note JMU lost 6.2 starters on offense, plus a PR who average 28 yards per return)
Rest of field: 10% chance for rest of field (SHSU and Southern conference).

Big Sky will drop further this year .. EWU will still be very good (got QB and most of OL back, improving defense), but slip a bit nationally due to coaching change. UND will slip a lot - see below. Weber St had no business being in playoffs. Not sure about Cal Poly - they lost a lot on offense; and NAU gets stud QB back, but their defense (lost nearly 7 starters from a bad defense) will make it very hard for strong offense to get on field.

UND 2016 had easy home/away schedule pave way for their 9-2 record .. best/toughest regular season win was 2 OT over 4-7 South Dakota. Schedule flips in 2017 .. tougher FBS, add EWU at home, flip USD to road along with rest of big sky schedule. Defense was your strength last year .. you lose 6 of 11 on that side of ball, though just 2.1 of 11 on offense. So I see 9-2 from last year ... when they won 7 games by average of 6 points ... I see 7-4 at best this season.

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5538&s=286577


Cal Poly has a cream puff conference schedule with no Montana school, UND or EWU. They have OOC games against Colgate, UNI and San Jose State. They could win the conference.

IMO, Ill State finishes #3 in the conference.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Cal Poly has a cream puff conference schedule with no Montana school, UND or EWU. They have OOC games against Colgate, UNI and San Jose State. They could win the conference.

IMO, Ill State finishes #3 in the conference.

good catch on Cal Poly strength of schedule in 2017 .... according to Massey, UNI is the toughest game on Cal Poly schedule:

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1032&s=295489

While flipping that over .. Cal Poly is the 2nd weakest team on UNI schedule.

Here is keepers snapshot of Big Sky starter losses from 2016



Big Sky Lost Starters
off
def
tot
tckls


Montana State
4.3
3.1
7.4
30%


Weber State
5.5
2.3
7.8
28%


North Dakota
2.1
6.0
8.1
45%


Montana
4.5
3.8
8.3
29%


Eastern Washington
4.4
4.1
8.5
31%


Southern Utah
5.5
3.8
9.3
29%


UC-Davis
5.3
4.4
9.7
32%


Portland State
5.0
4.8
9.8
41%


Cal Poly
6.0
4.3
10.3
40%


Northern Arizona
3.7
6.9
10.6
50%


Northern Colorado
5.3
6.6
11.9
55%



http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5641&s=295489

[BisonTru]

1 MVFC
2 CAA
3 Big Sky
4 SoCon


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[KPSUL]

I see the MVFC and CAA pretty much neck-and-neck for it. MVFC with NDSU and SDSU leading the way and CAA with JMU and a host of challengers that have the potential to step up. After that it's the Big Sky with EWU.

Right on target, but I'd also give SoCon (based collectively on Wofford, Chatty, Samford and The Citadel), OVC (JSU) and Southland (SHSU) all an outside shot.

[ASU33]

If we're going top 3
1.MVFC
2.CAA
3.Big Sky

[jmufan999]

no offense, but some of these threads are getting kind of silly. isn't this the exact same question as "who will win it all", just way less interesting and specific?

here are some thread ideas i've been working on:

*give the initials of the head coach who will win it all
*who is the 14th best player on your team?
*which one of your player's parents is most likely to be on a reality show within the next 5 years?

[cx500d]

no offense, but some of these threads are getting kind of silly. isn't this the exact same question as "who will win it all", just way less interesting and specific?

here are some thread ideas i've been working on:

*give the initials of the head coach who will win it all
*who is the 14th best player on your team?
*which one of your player's parents is most likely to be on a reality show within the next 5 years?


Oh I know, how about what state is most likely to produce a champion?

[ElCid]

Oh I know, how about what state is most likely to produce a champion?

I was hoping we started a "which time zone" would produce the champ.

[jmufan999]

I was hoping we started a "which time zone" would produce the champ.

too specific. maybe "which country will produce the FCS champ?"

[ElCid]

too specific. maybe "which country will produce the FCS champ?"

Canada south?xlolx

[Redbird 4th & short]

no offense, but some of these threads are getting kind of silly. isn't this the exact same question as "who will win it all", just way less interesting and specific?

here are some thread ideas i've been working on:

*give the initials of the head coach who will win it all
*who is the 14th best player on your team?
*which one of your player's parents is most likely to be on a reality show within the next 5 years?

like the thread idea, but I answered with % likely probably for the very reason you don't like it.

By the way, in order

* BS
* TE Petkovich
* Kobe Buffalo Meat (grey shirt ... and I am not kidding !)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC_MxTsfAoE

[GodHelpTheBears]

Which NCAA division is most likely to produce the FCS champion?

[BisonTru]

1 CK

2 Darrius Shepard

3 Nate Tanguay


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[F'N Hawks]

MVFC 60% chance (NDSU, SDSU, and do not count out my ISU redbirds)
CAA 30% chance (JMU, Richmond .. UNH, Villanova lost a little too much, note JMU lost 6.2 starters on offense, plus a PR who average 28 yards per return)
Rest of field: 10% chance for rest of field (SHSU and Southern conference).

Big Sky will drop further this year .. EWU will still be very good (got QB and most of OL back, improving defense), but slip a bit nationally due to coaching change. UND will slip a lot - see below. Weber St had no business being in playoffs. Not sure about Cal Poly - they lost a lot on offense; and NAU gets stud QB back, but their defense (lost nearly 7 starters from a bad defense) will make it very hard for strong offense to get on field.

UND 2016 had easy home/away schedule pave way for their 9-2 record .. best/toughest regular season win was 2 OT over 4-7 South Dakota. Schedule flips in 2017 .. tougher FBS, add EWU at home, flip USD to road along with rest of big sky schedule. Defense was your strength last year .. you lose 6 of 11 on that side of ball, though just 2.1 of 11 on offense. So I see 9-2 from last year ... when they won 7 games by average of 6 points ... I see 7-4 at best this season.

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5538&s=286577

...and they lost three games by a total of 8 pts. Punt block for TD by SB and dropped two pt conversion that beats BG. Round and round we could go.....

UND will be 8-3 this year and make the playoffs.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

BSC will have one team above .500 this season its that bad so definitely the MVFC there are no teams outside that conference that can match up.

[JSUSoutherner]

1 CK

2 Darrius Shepard

3 Nate Tanguay


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????

[F'N Hawks]

????

They like to talk about their own team, alot. No matter if it applies to the topic or not.

[jmufan999]

1 CK

2 Darrius Shepard

3 Nate Tanguay


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i'm assuming you guys are picking players who are "characters", thinking that their parents are also characters and would be good on reality TV? Ravenel was hysterical but he's gone. hm. i might have to ponder this one.


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[NorthChuckSouth]

Anyone but the SOCON xlolx

[BisonTru]

They like to talk about their own team, alot. No matter if it applies to the topic or not.

Following along and comprehension can be tough.

Keep trying bud.

[Redbird 4th & short]

...and they lost three games by a total of 8 pts. Punt block for TD by SB and dropped two pt conversion that beats BG. Round and round we could go.....

UND will be 8-3 this year and make the playoffs.

Massey and Sagarin do the round and round for us objectively ... Massey had you 20th and Sagarin had you 17th after 9-3 season, in which 7 wins were by average of 6 points against an SOS ranked 38th. This year your Massey SOS jumps to 18th to start the year for reasons I cited in earlier post, which is why I think UND drops off this season.

[F'N Hawks]

Massey and Sagarin do the round and round for us objectively ... Massey had you 20th and Sagarin had you 17th after 9-3 season, in which 7 wins were by average of 6 points against an SOS ranked 38th. This year your Massey SOS jumps to 18th to start the year for reasons I cited in earlier post, which is why I think UND drops off this season.

Only one way to find out, I guess. See you in November. xdrunkyx

[Gil Dobie]

MVFC
CAA

[Redbird 4th & short]

Only one way to find out, I guess. See you in November. xdrunkyx

yep, and we have our own question marks .. mainly OL. So while I am confident we will overcome them, there is wider range than usual around my own pick for my Redbirds in 2017. BUt our schedule lays out perfectly for us to develop that OL .. weaker first half than latter half SOS. Lat year, we lost our OC for personal reasons middle of June .. well respected and liked guy. It disrupted our offense more than we would have guessed. We started to come together in latter half of season offensively .. so we're hoping that continued in the offseason and into this year. If not, we will have worse problems than last year on offense.

[walliver]

I find these conference threads somewhat nebulous.
There was a period a while back where several different CAA teams won championships in a short period of time, but more recently we had an App State run and a NDSU run, and now JMU has a 1 game streak. We have had dominant teams, but not dominant conferences. A lot of MVFC fans seem to have SEC-East syndrome: we may lose a lot, but do you know who is in our conference? (They've mastered this attitude at South Carolina)

Ranking the conferences, however, I would go with the MVFC because NDSU is still the team to beat. The CAA comes in second, because Mike Houston can never be taken lightly.
The National Champion, however, will come from the SoCon.:D

[caribbeanhen]

I find these conference threads somewhat nebulous.
There was a period a while back where several different CAA teams won championships in a short period of time, but more recently we had an App State run and a NDSU run, and now JMU has a 1 game streak. We have had dominant teams, but not dominant conferences. A lot of MVFC fans seem to have SEC-East syndrome: we may lose a lot, but do you know who is in our conference? (They've mastered this attitude at South Carolina)

Ranking the conferences, however, I would go with the MVFC because NDSU is still the team to beat. The CAA comes in second, because Mike Houston can never be taken lightly.
The National Champion, however, will come from the SoCon.:D

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... the MVFC is like Paul McCartney and Wings, we all know who Paul is but who in the heck were the Wings?

[Yote 53]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... the MVFC is like Paul McCartney and Wings, we all know who Paul is but who in the heck were the Wings?

Look at the total OOC record for all teams in the MVFC over the last several seasons. The record speaks for itself, the MVFC is the best conference. The losses suffered by the teams in the conference are mostly in-conference losses as the teams beat up on each other.

[ST_Lawson]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... the MVFC is like Paul McCartney and Wings, we all know who Paul is but who in the heck were the Wings?

Except this year it'll be more like the Beatles:
NDSU = Paul McCartney
SDSU = John Lennon
ISUr = George Harrison
WIU = Ringo Starr
....
USD = Pete Best
....
MSU = Stuart Sutcliffe

[sdsuceegrad]

Except this year it'll be more like the Beatles:
NDSU = Paul McCartney
SDSU = John Lennon
ISUr = George Harrison
WIU = Ringo Starr
....
USD = Pete Best
....
MSU = Stuart Sutcliffe


Agreed...if teams like ISUr, UNI, USD, WIU weren't in the Valley, they'd be looking at playoffs on a pretty consistent basis. The Valley is THE toughest league in the nation week in and week out. I also firmly believe that if a team like any of the previously mentioned had an average/below average season, they're still more competitive than some of these schools listed in the top 25 polls.

EX. YSU last year. Finished 3rd in the Valley, made the Natty...

[ST_Lawson]

Agreed...if teams like ISUr, UNI, USD, WIU weren't in the Valley, they'd be looking at playoffs on a pretty consistent basis. The Valley is THE toughest league in the nation week in and week out. I also firmly believe that if a team like any of the previously mentioned had an average/below average season, they're still more competitive than some of these schools listed in the top 25 polls.

EX. YSU last year. Finished 3rd in the Valley, made the Natty...

Yup...just look at us: beat Eastern Illinois by 17 (full-scholarship team w/ over .500 record and FBS win and with our best receiver sitting out the first half), beat Northern Arizona by 14 (before they lost Cookus for the season), beat Northern Illinois at their place (FBS, 5-3 in their own conference).

Then once conference season starts up....3-5 and we don't make the playoffs. If we were in the OVC last year, I'm pretty sure we'd be #2 right behind JSU and would have finished probably 10-1 or 9-2...either of which would likely get us in the playoffs.

[caribbeanhen]

Except this year it'll be more like the Beatles:
NDSU = Paul McCartney
SDSU = John Lennon
ISUr = George Harrison
WIU = Ringo Starr
....
USD = Pete Best
....
MSU = Stuart Sutcliffe

never heard of those guys...:)

[F'N Hawks]

Look at the total OOC record for all teams in the MVFC over the last several seasons. The record speaks for itself, the MVFC is the best conference. The losses suffered by the teams in the conference are mostly in-conference losses as the teams beat up on each other.

Can't wait for 2020. Get to brag incessantly about the "meat grinder" that is the MVFC.

[The Pud]

1. Southland
2. CAA
3. MVFC

[JSUSoutherner]

Yup...just look at us: beat Eastern Illinois by 17 (full-scholarship team w/ over .500 record and FBS win and with our best receiver sitting out the first half), beat Northern Arizona by 14 (before they lost Cookus for the season), beat Northern Illinois at their place (FBS, 5-3 in their own conference).

Then once conference season starts up....3-5 and we don't make the playoffs. If we were in the OVC last year, I'm pretty sure we'd be #2 right behind JSU and would have finished probably 10-1 or 9-2...either of which would likely get us in the playoffs.
We will trade the MVC/FC SIUe and Murray for you guys. :D

Please?

[ST_Lawson]

We will trade the MVC/FC SIUe and Murray for you guys. :D

Please?

It's tempting, but it's also really hard to give up longtime rivalries with Illinois State (100th meeting this year), SIU, and UNI.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Except this year it'll be more like the Beatles:
NDSU = Paul McCartney
SDSU = John Lennon
ISUr = George Harrison
WIU = Ringo Starr
....
USD = Pete Best
....
MSU = Stuart Sutcliffe

Agree on your "fab four" ... keeping with theme, the only remaining question is who is this years Yoko Ono threatening to break up the fab four ??

Too many question marks for YSU and UNI ... then InSU and MoST don't seem to have enough to move up this year ... so that only leaves SIU or USD as this years possible Yoko Ono ?

I like SIU mojo under new coach .. they are my Yoko Ono pick.

[JSUSoutherner]

It's tempting, but it's also really hard to give up longtime rivalries with Illinois State (100th meeting this year), SIU, and UNI.
Make the ISUr game an OOC rivarly game like EIU currently does with ISUr.

[ST_Lawson]

Make the ISUr game an OOC rivarly game like EIU currently does with ISUr.

Would ISUr really want to lock up two OOC games every year? Kinda hinders scheduling I'd think.

[malibudude]

Lennon was/is NDSU not Sir Paul. From my Capitol Record days. And just an opinion.

[McNeese75]

1. Southland
2. CAA
3. MVFC

xlolx

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=25775&stc=1

[Scooter]

Is that a lil' Cleo spoon? Awesome pic. Never lit one on fire....but props to you.

[caribbeanhen]

Lennon was/is NDSU not Sir Paul. From my Capitol Record days. And just an opinion.

Nope, Lennon is South Dak State, and jealous of Sir Paul ....

[The Pud]

xlolx

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=25775&stc=1

+7 xlolx