Milktruck74
August 27th, 2017, 05:42 PM
Eh, with respect to Chattanooga fans, I think you guys don't really understand what a "down year" is. I mean, don't get me wrong, we all know y'all know what that is pre-Huesman but saying "this is going to be a down year so I predict 8 wins" is not a down year. To put things in perspective, the Mocs have averaged about 8.2 wins in the past 5 years (including the playoffs)
I think this Chattanooga team will win 6 or 7 games. Obviously, I could be wrong and they win 8 (I don't think they'll win more than 8 for the regular season) before(/if) they make the playoffs , but my point here isn't about the win/loss total.
The Southern Conference was *very* competitive last year. Wofford was 7 points away from being 10-1 and 2 scores away from being another mundane 6-5; 10-1 Citadel won 6 games by 8 points or less (not all in the socon); Chattanooga gave every team in the FCS a game (in that they stomped quite a few), even if they lost, and when they won they usually won by double digits; Samford was 7 points away from 9-2...and 7 points away from 5-6.
An off year in the Socon is not 8 wins or 7 wins. An off year is 5 or 6 wins. Or less. Everyone is competitive, and though usually there's one team that is in aggregate a couple scores better than everyone else (Chatt has been that team for the last 4 or so years), the difference between that team and the 2-4th place teams is a span of a couple big plays.
Based upon what I saw last night, I think Chattanooga is going to be in that weird 4th place spot, as Samford was last year. The team that can beat any team in the conference, but still has enough question marks that makes them liable for an upset. That's not an unfair prediction, there's a lot of converging variables; sans Alabama, most teams can't maintain that consistency without one bad year over the course of 5-7. For instance, even App State crashed and burned for a 4-8 season in 2013.
Next year is obviously next year and we can never deduce long term trends in FCS, but based upon the performance I saw last night I don't think Chattanooga is going to be anything better than a bubble or dark horse for the Socon title.
Good Points. I think my 8 wins is much more heart than head, and maybe a little trolling. 7 wins would mean 1-1 against top 25 FCS OOC and 6-2 in a very strong SoCon. 6-2 in SoCon could mean tied for first, second or even third, all of which make the playoffs. Would having Benefield and Warren have made a difference last night, probably not. However, having a very FRESH mobile QB and an AA LB back to start the Conference cant hurt. I saw lots of good things last night, the Defense will keep us in ballgames (and it is only getting stronger), the Offense has plenty of talent (just got to get it to mesh), the Offensive line was not awful (the will get better) and they didn;t give up. There is plenty to work with, but it is a rebuilding/learning a system year. The good part about the OL is they wont see anybody like Darius Jackson the rest of the season, sans LSU...and they didn't give up a sack....a couple of hurrys and hits, but no sacks, if Tiano gets a little bit of time he can deliver a decent ball, but we will see what he has in a few weeks.....I think the best part of all this is the Fans actually expect to win titles every year....a far cry from where we were!!!!
I think this Chattanooga team will win 6 or 7 games. Obviously, I could be wrong and they win 8 (I don't think they'll win more than 8 for the regular season) before(/if) they make the playoffs , but my point here isn't about the win/loss total.
The Southern Conference was *very* competitive last year. Wofford was 7 points away from being 10-1 and 2 scores away from being another mundane 6-5; 10-1 Citadel won 6 games by 8 points or less (not all in the socon); Chattanooga gave every team in the FCS a game (in that they stomped quite a few), even if they lost, and when they won they usually won by double digits; Samford was 7 points away from 9-2...and 7 points away from 5-6.
An off year in the Socon is not 8 wins or 7 wins. An off year is 5 or 6 wins. Or less. Everyone is competitive, and though usually there's one team that is in aggregate a couple scores better than everyone else (Chatt has been that team for the last 4 or so years), the difference between that team and the 2-4th place teams is a span of a couple big plays.
Based upon what I saw last night, I think Chattanooga is going to be in that weird 4th place spot, as Samford was last year. The team that can beat any team in the conference, but still has enough question marks that makes them liable for an upset. That's not an unfair prediction, there's a lot of converging variables; sans Alabama, most teams can't maintain that consistency without one bad year over the course of 5-7. For instance, even App State crashed and burned for a 4-8 season in 2013.
Next year is obviously next year and we can never deduce long term trends in FCS, but based upon the performance I saw last night I don't think Chattanooga is going to be anything better than a bubble or dark horse for the Socon title.
Good Points. I think my 8 wins is much more heart than head, and maybe a little trolling. 7 wins would mean 1-1 against top 25 FCS OOC and 6-2 in a very strong SoCon. 6-2 in SoCon could mean tied for first, second or even third, all of which make the playoffs. Would having Benefield and Warren have made a difference last night, probably not. However, having a very FRESH mobile QB and an AA LB back to start the Conference cant hurt. I saw lots of good things last night, the Defense will keep us in ballgames (and it is only getting stronger), the Offense has plenty of talent (just got to get it to mesh), the Offensive line was not awful (the will get better) and they didn;t give up. There is plenty to work with, but it is a rebuilding/learning a system year. The good part about the OL is they wont see anybody like Darius Jackson the rest of the season, sans LSU...and they didn't give up a sack....a couple of hurrys and hits, but no sacks, if Tiano gets a little bit of time he can deliver a decent ball, but we will see what he has in a few weeks.....I think the best part of all this is the Fans actually expect to win titles every year....a far cry from where we were!!!!