MVFC Pythagorean Power Rankings/Overachieving or Underachieving

[mmiller_34]

I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with this computation but its explained here:


Pythagorean expectation, or Pythagorean projection, calculates a percentage based on the number of points a team has scored and allowed. Typically the formula involves the number of points scored, raised to some exponent, placed in the numerator. Then the number of points the team allowed, raised to the same exponent, is placed in the denominator and added to the value in the numerator. The resulting percentage is often compared to a team's true winning percentage, and a team is said to have "overachieved" or "underachieved" compared to the Pythagorean expectation.

https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/8d32ab10962d54d9b5a367c63f18251eb88006bb


I plugged in MVFC stats into the formula and this is what came out:




Points For
Points Against
Games Played
Pythagorean Wins
Pythagorean Losses
True Wins
True Losses


Youngstown State
318
206
12
8.84
3.16
9
3


North Dakota State
310
188
11
8.42
2.58
10
1


Northern Iowa
320
242
11
7.26
3.74
5
6


South Dakota State
411
312
11
7.23
3.77
8
3


Illinois State
312
262
12
7.22
4.78
6
6


Southern Illinois
340
338
11
5.54
5.46
4
7


Western Illinois
319
346
11
4.97
6.03
6
5


South Dakota
329
379
11
4.59
6.41
4
7


Indiana State
274
359
11
3.80
7.20
4
7


Missouri State
257
393
11
2.94
8.06
4
7




Thought it might provide some interesting food for thought/discussion. One spot that I was happy to see that this accurately predicted UNI underachieving which most are in agreement with on AGS.

[ysubigred]

I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with this computation but its explained here:



I plugged in MVFC stats into the formula and this is what came out:




Points For
Points Against
Games Played
Pythagorean Wins
Pythagorean Losses
True Wins
True Losses


North Dakota State
310
188
11
8.42
2.58
10
1


Youngstown State
318
206
11
8.10
2.90
8
3


Northern Iowa
320
242
11
7.26
3.74
5
6


South Dakota State
411
312
11
7.23
3.77
8
3


Illinois State
312
262
12
7.22
3.78
6
6


Southern Illinois
340
338
11
5.54
5.46
4
7


Western Illinois
319
346
11
4.97
6.03
6
5


South Dakota
329
379
11
4.59
6.41
4
7


Indiana State
274
359
11
3.80
7.20
4
7


Missouri State
257
393
11
2.94
8.06
4
7




Thought it might provide some interesting food for thought/discussion. One spot that I was happy to see that this accurately predicted UNI underachieving which most are in agreement with on AGS.

xeyebrowx YSU played 12 games?

[mmiller_34]

xeyebrowx YSU played 12 games?


Should be fixed now. Good catch.

[gregatim]

xeyebrowx YSU played 12 games?

Including the first round of the playoffs they did.

[dewey]

I would believe that NDSU overachieved slightly and that UNI significantly underachieved. Good stuff thanks for sharing.

Dewey

[BEAR]

OMG my head hurts...xlolx

[melloware13]

Here's the stats for the CAA. No major underachievers, but Maine overachieved by this metric.



Team
Points For
Points Allowed
Games Played
Pythagorean Wins
Pythagorean Losses
True Wins
True Losses


James Madison
525
258
11
9.28
1.72
10
1


Villanova
310
185
12
9.27
2.73
9
3


Richmond
374
266
12
8.30
3.70
9
3


New Hampshire
349
261
12
7.99
4.01
8
4


Albany
274
207
11
7.26
3.74
7
4


William & Mary
243
259
11
5.09
5.91
5
6


Delaware
242
276
11
4.65
6.35
4
7


Maine
245
288
11
4.46
6.54
6
5


Stony Brook
184
222
11
4.30
6.70
5
6


Towson
243
304
11
4.07
6.93
4
7


Rhode Island
185
400
11
1.52
9.48
2
9


Elon
134
338
11
1.10
9.90
2
9



I also ran it for just CAA games, JMU seemed to overachieve most here:


Team
Points For
Points Allowed
Games Played
Pythagorean Wins
Pythagorean Losses
True Wins
True Losses


Villanova
215
101
8
6.86
1.14
6
2


James Madison
361
174
8
6.79
1.21
8
0


New Hampshire
225
159
8
5.56
2.44
6
2


Albany
187
154
8
4.90
3.10
4
4


Stony Brook
161
137
8
4.76
3.24
4
4


Richmond
226
205
8
4.46
3.54
5
3


Maine
186
188
8
3.95
4.05
5
3


William & Mary
170
187
8
3.55
4.45
3
5


Towson
171
200
8
3.27
4.73
3
5


Delaware
141
218
8
2.10
5.90
2
6


Rhode Island
130
281
8
1.11
6.89
1
7


Elon
88
257
8
0.58
7.42
1
7

[BisonFan02]

Holy **** transitive property something something squared batman. xlolx

[UNIFanSince1983]

I love stuff like this. Awesome work mmiller_34!

[Mayville Bison]

I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with this computation but its explained here:



I plugged in MVFC stats into the formula and this is what came out:




Points For
Points Against
Games Played
Pythagorean Wins
Pythagorean Losses
True Wins
True Losses



Youngstown State
318
206
12
8.84
3.16
9
3


North Dakota State
310
188
11
8.42
2.58
10
1


Northern Iowa
320
242
11
7.26
3.74
5
6


South Dakota State
411
312
11
7.23
3.77
8
3


Illinois State
312
262
12
7.22
4.78
6
6


Southern Illinois
340
338
11
5.54
5.46
4
7


Western Illinois
319
346
11
4.97
6.03
6
5


South Dakota
329
379
11
4.59
6.41
4
7


Indiana State
274
359
11
3.80
7.20
4
7


Missouri State
257
393
11
2.94
8.06
4
7




Thought it might provide some interesting food for thought/discussion. One spot that I was happy to see that this accurately predicted UNI underachieving which most are in agreement with on AGS.

Anyone else get 18 wins 0 losses when computing Sammy's? xthumbsupx

[Redbird007]

need same correction for ISUr.

[mmiller_34]

need same correction for ISUr.

I see 12 games for Illinois State.

[mmiller_34]

I love stuff like this. Awesome work mmiller_34!

Thanks, I was bored at work today.