So...Do Defenses Win Championships?

[ElCid]

I thought I would take a look at each playoff team and see how they stack up defense'wise. Obviously, it is not the entire picture with offense and special teams just as important. Teams also play different strength of schedules, as everyone will tell you. But I think there is still something to be said for a strong defense regardless of the team. In the extreme example, the mighty running Cal Poly, that was averaging over 370 yards a game rushing, was only able to scrape out 155 against a SD team that had been allowing well under 100 yards a game on the season. Was it just luck?

Here are some basic numbers for the playoff team's defenses. Seeded teams in bold. Teams that have lost already are in red. I find it interesting to note that each of the teams that lost so far, lost to a team with a better defense. I did a quick check and that is not the case in regard to the better statistical offenses. The more prolific offenses did not always win.

Hmm.

Can San Diego knock off the Bison? Can Villanova take the bunnies? Can the Mocs take SHSU? Can the Spiders bite ND? Can Central Arkansas ground the Eagles? Can Wofford take The Citadel? NH and JMU are pretty much a wash on D but NH has ever so slight an edge. Will it be enough? The only "favorite" that plays a statistically weaker D is JSU vs. YSU.

I obviously know some of these will not happen, but it might be an interesting day.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23986&stc=1

Edit: Added Points allowed per game for RootinForDukesxthumbsupx.

[RootinFerDukes]

I'd be interested to see a similar chart for PPG allowed. That's another important defensive stat I would say.

Yes I understand some points allowed are defensive scores and special teams scores.

[Milktruck74]

Interesting. We can hope!!!! Go Mocs!!!

[ElCid]

I'd be interested to see a similar chart for PPG allowed. That's another important defensive stat I would say.

Yes I understand some points allowed are defensive scores and special teams scores.

Added.

[BisonTru]

UND's weakness is pass defense, that's Richmond's strength. Richmond's weakness is rush defense that is UND's strength. Might be a high scoring affair in Grand Forks albeit Lauletta's absence from the offense may have significant effect.

Chattanooga statistically has the best pass defense, but how much of that is because of the heavy run teams they face in the SoCon.

Villanova's weakest at pass defense, and that's the Jackrabbits strength. However, the Jackrabbits overall has a very suspect defense.

Central Arkansas is also a team weakest against the pass and Eastern's strength is the pass. The Bears may need to get their offense going to keep up.

Wofford on the other hand is strongest in rush defense, which is The Citadel's strength. Brawn vs brawn, should be low scoring.

JMU and UNH have similar numbers and played pretty similar schedules. I'd give the nod to the better offense (JMU).

San Diego looks like a statistical giant compared to NDSU, but the difference in strength of schedules is monstrous. If they can keep NDSU close to their season average rush yards they have a chance. I don't think that happens.

[Schwarz04]

Interesting, but I don't know how much merit you can really put into Total Yards Per Game given up when you're comparing teams across different conferences, playing almost all different opponents. I think a comparison like that would hold more water within a conference, where all of the teams played similar opponents.

[ElCid]

Interesting, but I don't know how much merit you can really put into Total Yards Per Game given up when you're comparing teams across different conferences, playing almost all different opponents. I think a comparison like that would hold more water within a conference, where all of the teams played similar opponents.

That is obviously more accurate. I looked at the SOCON numbers and the teams flip around a bit, but not as much as you think when it comes to averages. Obviously depends on the OOC opponents, but it was not much. A DIV II opponent might pad numbers while an FBS might hurt a bit. I can't wait to see this weekends result in light of this data. Could blow it up, or confirm it a bit more, or more likely be a mixed result.

[Rjones61]

It has been shown many times over that teams that are good at both defense AND offense are the ones that win championships. Not just a power at one or the other. This has been the bane of EWU as they haven't been able to field a good defense since 2011. This is also why teams like Southern Utah haven't been championship relevant when they had greatl defenses.

People forget that NDSU's power run offense has been VERY powerful over the past few years. NDSU has been the top of the ppg stat many years during their championship runs. They have a reputation of a fantastic defense, but their offense was also good.

[Thundar]

I love statistical comparisons, it always shows who is better on the field xcoffeex

[Schwarz04]

That is obviously more accurate. I looked at the SOCON numbers and the teams flip around a bit, but not as much as you think when it comes to averages. Obviously depends on the OOC opponents, but it was not much. A DIV II opponent might pad numbers while an FBS might hurt a bit. I can't wait to see this weekends result in light of this data. Could blow it up, or confirm it a bit more, or more likely be a mixed result.

I was also thinking about the overall strength of different conferences, and how much that can vary one conference to another. Yeah I'd bet you'll see somewhat of a mixed result...

[Schwarz04]

I love statistical comparisons, it always shows who is better on the field xcoffeex

It's funny hearing that from an NDSU fan, because many times it has worked out that way for us...

You always play the game for a reason though!

[Sammy94]

I guess we will see if the chipper is San Diego vs JSU

[JSUSoutherner]

UND's weakness is pass defense, that's Richmond's strength. Richmond's weakness is rush defense that is UND's strength. Might be a high scoring affair in Grand Forks albeit Lauletta's absence from the offense may have significant effect.

Chattanooga statistically has the best pass defense, but how much of that is because of the heavy run teams they face in the SoCon.

Villanova's weakest at pass defense, and that's the Jackrabbits strength. However, the Jackrabbits overall has a very suspect defense.

Central Arkansas is also a team weakest against the pass and Eastern's strength is the pass. The Bears may need to get their offense going to keep up.

Wofford on the other hand is strongest in rush defense, which is The Citadel's strength. Brawn vs brawn, should be low scoring.

JMU and UNH have similar numbers and played pretty similar schedules. I'd give the nod to the better offense (JMU).

San Diego looks like a statistical giant compared to NDSU, but the difference in strength of schedules is monstrous. If they can keep NDSU close to their season average rush yards they have a chance. I don't think that happens.
This is exactly why I don't put stock into total yard given up as a metric. I always look at passing efficiency defense and yards per carry allowed.

I think looking at how teams perform on a snap to snap basis is a much better metric than looking at a season as a whole.

[ElCid]

I love statistical comparisons, it always shows who is better on the field xcoffeex

I know you are being sarcasticxthumbsupx, but I always look at statistics afterward to see if they confirm the result or find out what went wrong, or good, to change what was expected. Like why a team won when they only held the ball 20 minutes or why a team lost when they got 200+ yards over the winner. Looking at them before hand is always fun and "can be" an indicator, but obviously not the only one.

[ElCid]

This is exactly why I don't put stock into total yard given up as a metric. I always look at passing efficiency defense and yards per carry allowed.

I think looking at how teams perform on a snap to snap basis is a much better metric than looking at a season as a whole.

I was going to add yards per carry, but got tired of looking them up. Sorry. Go for it.:D

[Bisonator]

Those EWU and SDSU games really knocked us down this year.

[BisonTru]

One stat I like to look at is Net Yards per Play. It's kind of basic (just OYPP-DYPP), and you have to take it with who they played. Anyway, here is the remaining teams.




OYPP
DYPP
NYPP


Sam Houston St. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/624.0/12424)
7.61
5.25
2.36


San Diego (Pioneer) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/627.0/12424)
6.28
4.00
2.28


Jacksonville St. (OVC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/315.0/12424)
5.93
3.81
2.12


Chattanooga (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/693.0/12424)
6.16
4.48
1.68


James Madison (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/317.0/12424)
7.05
5.60
1.45


North Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/493.0/12424)
6.34
4.94
1.40


Richmond (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/575.0/12424)
6.35
4.96
1.39


Eastern Wash. (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/207.0/12424)
7.10
5.73
1.37


South Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/649.0/12424)
6.97
5.73
1.24


Villanova (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/739.0/12424)
5.59
4.44
1.15


Youngstown St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/817.0/12424)
5.94
4.92
1.02


Wofford (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/2915.0/12424)
5.35
4.50
0.85


Central Ark. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/1004.0/12424)
5.37
4.62
0.75


North Dakota (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/494.0/12424)
5.55
5.07
0.48


The Citadel (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/141.0/12424)
5.63
5.36
0.27


New Hampshire (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/469.0/12424)
5.18
5.09
0.09

[JSUSoutherner]

One stat I like to look at is Net Yards per Play. It's kind of basic (just OYPP-DYPP), and you have to take it with who they played. Anyway, here is the remaining teams.




OYPP
DYPP
NYPP


Sam Houston St. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/624.0/12424)
7.61
5.25
2.36


San Diego (Pioneer) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/627.0/12424)
6.28
4.00
2.28


Jacksonville St. (OVC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/315.0/12424)
5.93
3.81
2.12


Chattanooga (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/693.0/12424)
6.16
4.48
1.68


James Madison (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/317.0/12424)
7.05
5.60
1.45


North Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/493.0/12424)
6.34
4.94
1.40


Richmond (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/575.0/12424)
6.35
4.96
1.39


Eastern Wash. (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/207.0/12424)
7.10
5.73
1.37


South Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/649.0/12424)
6.97
5.73
1.24


Villanova (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/739.0/12424)
5.59
4.44
1.15


Youngstown St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/817.0/12424)
5.94
4.92
1.02


Wofford (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/2915.0/12424)
5.35
4.50
0.85


Central Ark. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/1004.0/12424)
5.37
4.62
0.75


North Dakota (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/494.0/12424)
5.55
5.07
0.48


The Citadel (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/141.0/12424)
5.63
5.36
0.27


New Hampshire (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/469.0/12424)
5.18
5.09
0.09



I'm honestly curious how much lower our DYPP would be had Derrius Guice not busted two big runs on us in Death Valley and we didn't have the six or so blown coverages this season.



Edit:

Did the math on my "what if" scenario and there were 8 plays that accounted for 406 yards against our D. Half of it from the LSU and Coastal games. Pretty sure at least half of it also has Al Harris' name written on it.

Without those mistakes we would be sitting at 3.28 yards a play and be #1 in pretty much every defensive stat...

Sigh. So close.

[ElCid]

One stat I like to look at is Net Yards per Play. It's kind of basic (just OYPP-DYPP), and you have to take it with who they played. Anyway, here is the remaining teams.




OYPP
DYPP
NYPP


Sam Houston St. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/624.0/12424)
7.61
5.25
2.36


San Diego (Pioneer) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/627.0/12424)
6.28
4.00
2.28


Jacksonville St. (OVC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/315.0/12424)
5.93
3.81
2.12


Chattanooga (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/693.0/12424)
6.16
4.48
1.68


James Madison (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/317.0/12424)
7.05
5.60
1.45


North Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/493.0/12424)
6.34
4.94
1.40


Richmond (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/575.0/12424)
6.35
4.96
1.39


Eastern Wash. (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/207.0/12424)
7.10
5.73
1.37


South Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/649.0/12424)
6.97
5.73
1.24


Villanova (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/739.0/12424)
5.59
4.44
1.15


Youngstown St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/817.0/12424)
5.94
4.92
1.02


Wofford (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/2915.0/12424)
5.35
4.50
0.85


Central Ark. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/1004.0/12424)
5.37
4.62
0.75


North Dakota (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/494.0/12424)
5.55
5.07
0.48


The Citadel (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/141.0/12424)
5.63
5.36
0.27


New Hampshire (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/469.0/12424)
5.18
5.09
0.09




That is an interesting stat but without knowing how many plays teams have, it might not tell the whole story. I will give an example about my Bulldogs because I have their stats easily at hand but I know it applies to many teams. I will use 2 extreme examples. Against WCU we ran 94 offensive plays. WCU ran just 44. Against UTC we ran 81 plays. The Mocs ran only 47 plays. If teams are fairly close in possession or offensive plays, it might be a good comparison but I think it does not tell the real story. Which I guess no stats does, that is why we watch the games. In those cases above, we out gained WCU 602-121 and UTC 349-295. But it is interesting to note that against Wofford we ran only 65 plays for 240 yards against their 67 plays for 343. They were beating us most of the game with our game plan. For the year we ran almost 200 more plays than our opponents (825-630). Taken with other stats I can find value in this. Especially considering our 2 OT wins and 4 other one score games, makes sense.

[CappinHard]

I'm honestly curious how much lower our DYPP would be had Derrius Guice not busted two big runs on us in Death Valley and we didn't have the six or so blown coverages this season.



Edit:

Did the math on my "what if" scenario and there were 8 plays that accounted for 406 yards against our D. Half of it from the LSU and Coastal games. Pretty sure at least half of it also has Al Harris' name written on it.

Without those mistakes we would be sitting at 3.28 yards a play and be #1 in pretty much every defensive stat...

Sigh. So close.

I understand what you're saying, but if you are going to do that, you would have to throw out everyone's top 8 (or bottom 8 depending on how you look at it) plays before you could say that you would be #1. I'm sure almost every team has given up a handful of 50+ yard plays.

[JSUSoutherner]

I understand what you're saying, but if you are going to do that, you would have to throw out everyone's top 8 (or bottom 8 depending on how you look at it) plays before you could say that you would be #1. I'm sure almost every team has given up a handful of 50+ yard plays.
Yeah I know. But I'm too lazy to do that.

I wasn't really trying to compare to other team. Just seeing what could have been.

I just kind of assumed on the #1 in the stats thing. It seemed reasonable considering we're 1 or 2 in most of them already anyway.

[ElCid]

I understand what you're saying, but if you are going to do that, you would have to throw out everyone's top 8 (or bottom 8 depending on how you look at it) plays before you could say that you would be #1. I'm sure almost every team has given up a handful of 50+ yard plays.

CappinHard is Cappinobvious xthumbsupx. I would love to take out 5 plays from our season. I think they accounted for just over 400 yards. Yikes. But we blew it and who knows, it might have just motivated our boys to tighten up.

[JSUSoutherner]

CappinHard is Cappinobvious xthumbsupx. I would love to take out 5 plays from our season. I think they accounted for just over 400 yards. Yikes. But we blew it and who knows, it might have just motivated our boys to tighten up.
I think this is what happened for us. It was probably a good thing to get our mistakes out of the way early and learn from them. After LSU we seemed to tackle a lot better and improved at wrapping up the ball carrier. After the blown coverages we seemed to make adjustments and they have defintely gotten a lot less common as the season progressed.

[Thundar]

It's funny hearing that from an NDSU fan, because many times it has worked out that way for us...

You always play the game for a reason though!

I was being sarcastic, paper stats dont mean crap

[BisonTru]

That is an interesting stat but without knowing how many plays teams have, it might not tell the whole story. I will give an example about my Bulldogs because I have their stats easily at hand but I know it applies to many teams. I will use 2 extreme examples. Against WCU we ran 94 offensive plays. WCU ran just 44. Against UTC we ran 81 plays. The Mocs ran only 47 plays. If teams are fairly close in possession or offensive plays, it might be a good comparison but I think it does not tell the real story. Which I guess no stats does, that is why we watch the games. In those cases above, we out gained WCU 602-121 and UTC 349-295. But it is interesting to note that against Wofford we ran only 65 plays for 240 yards against their 67 plays for 343. They were beating us most of the game with our game plan. For the year we ran almost 200 more plays than our opponents (825-630). Taken with other stats I can find value in this. Especially considering our 2 OT wins and 4 other one score games, makes sense.

I can see that. A triple option team that consistently gets 4ish yards per gain, but rarely breaks for huge plays may be skewed lower. Also defenses that are suspect for the big play could look worse.

The main reasons I like to look at it is, many teams run wildly different philosophies. Take NDSU and EWU. NDSU's offense will always look worse just because of style. Whereas is Eastern's defense will always look worse just because NDSU is trying to eat clock and Eastern is trying to run up the play count.

Stats with such wide gaps in competition, style are almost impossible to find anything that can be a true indicator. Nonetheless, I do think teams like Wofford and The Citadel could look worse with this method just by style. However, we can take away Wofford and The Citadel play similar schedules and similar styles. Wofford having a better NYPP may indicate a potential upset whereas UNH being much worse than a conference foe JMU in NYPP, might indicate JMU should win easily.

As always, who knows.

[kalm]

That is an interesting stat but without knowing how many plays teams have, it might not tell the whole story. I will give an example about my Bulldogs because I have their stats easily at hand but I know it applies to many teams. I will use 2 extreme examples. Against WCU we ran 94 offensive plays. WCU ran just 44. Against UTC we ran 81 plays. The Mocs ran only 47 plays. If teams are fairly close in possession or offensive plays, it might be a good comparison but I think it does not tell the real story. Which I guess no stats does, that is why we watch the games. In those cases above, we out gained WCU 602-121 and UTC 349-295. But it is interesting to note that against Wofford we ran only 65 plays for 240 yards against their 67 plays for 343. They were beating us most of the game with our game plan. For the year we ran almost 200 more plays than our opponents (825-630). Taken with other stats I can find value in this. Especially considering our 2 OT wins and 4 other one score games, makes sense.

Where did you find the number of plays stat? Or did you just add them up?

Never mind. You can find the ypa on the NCAA stats site under total offense and total defense.

[BisonTru]

The great thing about stats is they can almost always be skewed enough to find a way to make your team look good.

Baseball does this a lot.

This batter is batting .368 against right hand pitching, in July, during day games, on Thursdays.

[kalm]

So only 3 teams in the top 50 in total defense had over 800 plays run against them. UNH, ISUr, and UCA.

[ElCid]

So only 3 teams in the top 50 in total defense had over 800 plays run against them. UNH, ISUr, and UCA.

Looks that way. That is why the best defense is just keep holding onto the ball.xlolx

[ST_Lawson]

The great thing about stats is they can almost always be skewed enough to find a way to make your team look good.

Baseball does this a lot.

This batter is batting .368 against right hand pitching, in July, during day games, on Thursdays.

Wohooo!!!!! We're #1...We're #1...We're #1...in 4th Down Conversion % Defense.....um.....in Illinois.

[kalm]

Looks that way. That is why the best defense is just keep holding onto the ball.xlolx

Yep. And 9 out of the top 10 made the playoffs, 8 of which won their 1st round games or are seeds.

[UNHFootballAlum]

It would be great to look at the defensive number for the past 4 games and compare that to the entire season. it may provide an indication of which defenses are playing at their best now and which defenses are playing worse.

[ysubigred]

I'd say that it don't hurt. Back in the YSU glory days (90's) we made a living off our stout defenses. Fast forward to today YSU finally has another one. Not saying we'll win a championship with it because our offense is not as efficient as the 90's "O"s we had. NDSU is an example of how YSU used to be and you see where the are xthumbsupx

[Southern Bison]

The great thing about stats is they can almost always be skewed enough to find a way to make your team look good.

Baseball does this a lot.

This batter is batting .368 against right hand pitching, in July, during day games, on Thursdays.
Thanks Bob Eucker...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[walliver]

Defenses sitting on the bench give up no yards and no points. A ball-control offense can make a mediocre defense look good, although nothing can make a bad defense look good.

Wofford has a good defense this year, but I can remember several years where we had a weak defense with good numbers because the offense was on the field most of the game.

I find all defensive stats questionable. For example if the right end has a lot more tackles than the left end, does that mean that the right end is a better player, or is the offense preferentially running right to avoid the left end? A safety with a lot of tackles may be a great athlete, or he may be working with weak linebackers.

[dudeitsaid]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23986&stc=1

Edit: Added Points allowed per game for RootinForDukesxthumbsupx.

Dude, why you need to post this chart? Just to make us look bad...xbawlingx

Once again, EWU is at the bottom of defensive statistics. For that reason, I would advise any playoff teams we face to do no game-planning regarding our defense. They won't even show up. None of these numbers have anything to do with who we played, and the style of play with which those opponents utilized against us. Additionally, we tried really hard on offense to hold the ball for long periods of time, but our offense sucks at not scoring frequently. Therefore, our opponents' offenses were on the field longer, and had the opportunity to add to their scores and yards against our non-existent, tired out defense that was on the field way too long. Like I said, move along...nothing to see here on the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles...:D

And as noted by a prior poster...All Hail to the University of San Diego, your soon to be FCS National Champions!

[AmsterBison]

Well, to me the king of defensive stats is Points Per Game. Tied for second is third down efficiency (defense and offense.)

NDSU's PPG allowed was really hurt this year because the offense was only converting 44% of third downs and the defense was allowing 3rd down conversions 41% of the time.

3rd down conversion rate: Off/Def
2016: 44% / 41%
2015: 47% / 26%
2014: 48% / 32%
2013: 55% / 23%
2012: 51% / 29%
2011: 43% / 37%

Allowing a higher rate of 3rd down conversions -wonder if it's because NDSU doesn't have a shutdown corner this year for the first time since 2010. Well, that and we really miss DeLuca at MLB.

[ElCid]

Dude, why you need to post this chart? Just to make us look bad...xbawlingx

Once again, EWU is at the bottom of defensive statistics. For that reason, I would advise any playoff teams we face to do no game-planning regarding our defense. They won't even show up. None of these numbers have anything to do with who we played, and the style of play with which those opponents utilized against us. Additionally, we tried really hard on offense to hold the ball for long periods of time, but our offense sucks at not scoring frequently. Therefore, our opponents' offenses were on the field longer, and had the opportunity to add to their scores and yards against our non-existent, tired out defense that was on the field way too long. Like I said, move along...nothing to see here on the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles...:D

And as noted by a prior poster...All Hail to the University of San Diego, your soon to be FCS National Champions!

Absolutely not trying to make you look bad. Everyone knows you are not anyway. I did say, it was only one part along with Offense and Special Teams. But what would happen if your powerhouse offense sputtered........?:D I know exactly what you are trying to say. We faced a problem when we played Samford. They score in 1-2 minutes like clockwork. I knew we would have to hold the ball for at least 40 minutes if we were to have any hope of winning. Oh, and score ourselves. We held it just over 38 minutes and won in OT. Silly.

I wonder if anyone did pick SD in their bracket.

[ElCid]

Well, to me the king of defensive stats is Points Per Game. Tied for second is third down efficiency (defense and offense.)

NDSU's PPG allowed was really hurt this year because the offense was only converting 44% of third downs and the defense was allowing 3rd down conversions 41% of the time.

3rd down conversion rate: Off/Def
2016: 44% / 41%
2015: 47% / 26%
2014: 48% / 32%
2013: 55% / 23%
2012: 51% / 29%
2011: 43% / 37%

Allowing a higher rate of 3rd down conversions -wonder if it's because NDSU doesn't have a shutdown corner this year for the first time since 2010. Well, that and we really miss DeLuca at MLB.

I too look at 3rd downs on both O and D. I think it reveals a lot.

[Bisonwinagn]

I love statistical comparisons, it always shows who is better on the field xcoffeex

Thanks for being a dickhead!!!

[Elcid1995]

That is obviously more accurate. I looked at the SOCON numbers and the teams flip around a bit, but not as much as you think when it comes to averages. Obviously depends on the OOC opponents, but it was not much. A DIV II opponent might pad numbers while an FBS might hurt a bit. I can't wait to see this weekends result in light of this data. Could blow it up, or confirm it a bit more, or more likely be a mixed result.

Let's hope it blows it up at least in one instance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Schwarz04]

I was being sarcastic, paper stats dont mean crap

I know you were being sarcastic...hence my comment.

The Bison have been on the winning side of most statistics and metrics compared to most of their competition over the last 5 years, and they have won most of their games over the last 5 years, so wouldn't that tell you that statistics carry some possible merit?

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Statistics carry plenty of merit, but the audience should always keep those conclusions within the appropriate context. NC A&T did not look like the 27th best defense in the country against a hobbled Richmond team with a backup QB in his first collegiate start.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Another interesting data point might be starting field position. I know JMU overall this year has played excellent special teams, returning and defending kicks/punts. Flipping the field can impact statistics quickly without telling the whole story.

[dudeitsaid]

Well, to me the king of defensive stats is Points Per Game. Tied for second is third down efficiency (defense and offense.)

NDSU's PPG allowed was really hurt this year because the offense was only converting 44% of third downs and the defense was allowing 3rd down conversions 41% of the time.

3rd down conversion rate: Off/Def
2016: 44% / 41%
2015: 47% / 26%
2014: 48% / 32%
2013: 55% / 23%
2012: 51% / 29%
2011: 43% / 37%

Allowing a higher rate of 3rd down conversions -wonder if it's because NDSU doesn't have a shutdown corner this year for the first time since 2010. Well, that and we really miss DeLuca at MLB.


I also really look at 3rd down %. I've really been keyed in on that due to years in which it just seemed we could not get teams off the field. This year has been better, though we could still grow in that area. We have certainly improved down the stretch thought.

Thought I would piggyback on El Cid's awesome work, and look at a similar chart. Only problem is...I don't know how to make it show up as large as it should!

As always, stats only tell so much of the story. But I thought looking at the variance between the 3rd down offense and 3rd down defense was really interesting.

Four of the teams had a negative variance. Three of those teams lost this weekend. One of them (Samford) is a described as a high powered offense, but had one of the lowest 3rd down offense percentages of the entire field. Maybe they were more of a big play threat? In any case, they had the biggest variance...and went down this weekend.

The other team with a negative variance is UND...who plays this weekend.

I highlighted all of the teams with over 1% in light green, over 1.5% in darker green, and the only team (San Diego...watch out Bison!) with deep green.

I was really surprised to see how narrow that variance was for NDSU and SDSU.

And my favorite thing about this chart...EWU is above NDSU in 3rd down defense! After the schedule and conference EWU plays in, I will claim that moral victory! :D

Can anyone tell me how to make this chart bigger?



http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23994&stc=1

[JSUSoutherner]

I also really look at 3rd down %. I've really been keyed in on that due to years in which it just seemed we could not get teams off the field. This year has been better, though we could still grow in that area. We have certainly improved down the stretch thought.

Thought I would piggyback on El Cid's awesome work, and look at a similar chart. Only problem is...I don't know how to make it show up as large as it should!

As always, stats only tell so much of the story. But I thought looking at the variance between the 3rd down offense and 3rd down defense was really interesting.

Four of the teams had a negative variance. Three of those teams lost this weekend. One of them (Samford) is a described as a high powered offense, but had one of the lowest 3rd down offense percentages of the entire field. Maybe they were more of a big play threat? In any case, they had the biggest variance...and went down this weekend.

The other team with a negative variance is UND...who plays this weekend.

I highlighted all of the teams with over 1% in light green, over 1.5% in darker green, and the only team (San Diego...watch out Bison!) with deep green.

I was really surprised to see how narrow that variance was for NDSU and SDSU.

And my favorite thing about this chart...EWU is above NDSU in 3rd down defense! After the schedule and conference EWU plays in, I will claim that moral victory! :D

Can anyone tell me how to make this chart bigger?



http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23994&stc=1
Not sure. I always upload my images through Tapatalk. They always come out large a crisp that way.

[caribbeanhen]

I know you were being sarcastic...hence my comment.

The Bison have been on the winning side of most statistics and metrics compared to most of their competition over the last 5 years, and they have won most of their games over the last 5 years, so wouldn't that tell you that statistics carry some possible merit?

big deal! The Bison are a Big 10 team playing at the elementary school

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Wonder if the Bison can do anything against the #1 defense in the FCS?

xdontknowx

[ysubigred]

Wonder if the Bison can do anything against the #1 defense in the FCS?

xdontknowx

If you all don't put 50 on them I'd say you dressed the band xrotatehx

[Milktruck74]

If you all don't put 50 on them I'd say you dressed the band xrotatehx

i get that usd is a PFL team and most times they are the joke of the playoffs.....but they did handle a pretty good CalPoly team. I don't see the Bison losing, but I think it will be more of a game than people want to admit.

[katstrapper]

One stat I like to look at is Net Yards per Play. It's kind of basic (just OYPP-DYPP), and you have to take it with who they played. Anyway, here is the remaining teams.




OYPP
DYPP
NYPP


Sam Houston St. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/624.0/12424)
7.61
5.25
2.36


San Diego (Pioneer) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/627.0/12424)
6.28
4.00
2.28


Jacksonville St. (OVC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/315.0/12424)
5.93
3.81
2.12


Chattanooga (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/693.0/12424)
6.16
4.48
1.68


James Madison (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/317.0/12424)
7.05
5.60
1.45


North Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/493.0/12424)
6.34
4.94
1.40


Richmond (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/575.0/12424)
6.35
4.96
1.39


Eastern Wash. (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/207.0/12424)
7.10
5.73
1.37


South Dakota St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/649.0/12424)
6.97
5.73
1.24


Villanova (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/739.0/12424)
5.59
4.44
1.15


Youngstown St. (MVFC) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/817.0/12424)
5.94
4.92
1.02


Wofford (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/2915.0/12424)
5.35
4.50
0.85


Central Ark. (Southland) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/1004.0/12424)
5.37
4.62
0.75


North Dakota (Big Sky) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/494.0/12424)
5.55
5.07
0.48


The Citadel (Southern) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/141.0/12424)
5.63
5.36
0.27


New Hampshire (Colonial) (http://stats.ncaa.org/team/469.0/12424)
5.18
5.09
0.09




"and you have to look at who they have played" xblahx

[UNIFanSince1983]

"and you have to look at who they have played" xblahx

Well to be fair the top 3 on that list aren't in a murderers row of conferences. That being said both JSU and SHSU have proved they can make deep runs coming from weak conferences in the past. Although I do think the Southland isn't normally as bad as the OVC and certainly the Pioneer is far and away the worst.

[katstrapper]

I can say for a fact that defense won the championship in 2011 & 2012.

[IBleedYellow]

I can say for a fact that defense won the championship in 2011 & 2012.

Yeah, we completely owned your guys offense that was putting up video game numbers during those two years, in two games against us y'all only scored 19 points combined.

Edit: and in 2014 y'all scored 3.

So 21 points in 3 meetings.

Not bad defense, not bad.

[Thumper 76]

This thread is quickly turning into lets list every defensive stat that may have some sort of impact on the game, AKA almost all of them

Sent from my RCT6303W87M7 using Tapatalk

[dudeitsaid]

This thread is quickly turning into lets list every defensive stat that may have some sort of impact on the game, AKA almost all of them

Sent from my RCT6303W87M7 using Tapatalk

My next stat was going to be fan disruption of opposing offenses measured in decibels when their defense was on the field...huge impact!

[UNIFanSince1983]

My next stat was going to be fan disruption of opposing offenses measured in decibels when their defense was on the field...huge impact!

Might not be tough to do. Just amount of false starts by opposing teams or even timeouts taken at the line of scrimmage.

[Bisonator]

My next stat was going to be fan disruption of opposing offenses measured in decibels when their defense was on the field...huge impact!
Montana would win in a landslide. #coldandloud #itsastadium

[katstrapper]

My next stat was going to be fan disruption of opposing offenses measured in decibels when their defense was on the field...huge impact!

That is ESPN's job with their stupid little meter they like to shove in front of the camera.

- - - Updated - - -


Montana would win in a landslide. #coldandloud #itsastadium


THIS !!! Washington-Grizzly is probably the loudest stadium I have ever been in. And I have been in a lot bigger stadiums.

[Schwarz04]

big deal! The Bison are a Big 10 team playing at the elementary school

Cool, not sure how that's relevant...

The Bison get to award the same 63 scholarships as do all other FCS schools.