11/10 Selection Committee Top 10

[Schism55]

1. Jax St
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND


Flame on!

[FargoBison]

1. JSU
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND

[Professor Chaos]

Welp, I finished 3rd. Delete away.

[ST_Lawson]

*Committee

[Thumper 76]

https://media3.giphy.com/media/w2UtIGtEpuR9u/giphy.gif


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[Professor Chaos]

Still some rough edges to be smoothed out of this one but overall better than last week.

Not sure what is impressing them so much about JSU.

[F'N Hawks]

xarguexxpopcornxxpopcornxxpopcornxxpopcornxxpopcor nx

[TheRevSFA]

and the Sam train rolls in to the station in 3.......2.............

[JSUSoutherner]

Still some rough edges to be smoothed out of this one but overall better than last week.

Not sure what is impressing them so much about JSU.

Defense I guess. Only thing I can think of.


Man, I can't wait to hear the SHSU Novemberists now.

[thebootfitter]

Also, not committee rankings....your best guess at committee rankings.
Nope... that's the real deal. Threads should probably be merged. Ursus?

[FargoBison]

Still some rough edges to be smoothed out of this one but overall better than last week.

Not sure what is impressing them so much about JSU.

Basically the same thoughts I had, still not sure why EWU is not #1 but it is an improvement.

Kind of surprised at the big SHSU drop, I guess the committee found some SOS rankings to look at.

[ST_Lawson]

Nope... that's the real deal. Threads should probably be merged. Ursus?

Yea, just realized that. Still misspelled though ;)

[DirtyDukes]

Historically Speaking, James Madison > Sam Houston.

[FearTheBeak]

Still some rough edges to be smoothed out of this one but overall better than last week.

Not sure what is impressing them so much about JSU. SEMO had 0 rushing yards?

[clenz]

In before the ****storm.


AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[DirtyDukes]

Historically speaking, James Madison was​ better than Sam Houston... just sayin'.

[IBleedYellow]

SEMO had 0 rushing yards?

Exactly. ​SEMO.

[Schism55]

Yes Ursus, please merge/delete my misspelled mess.
Thanks

[Professor Chaos]

SEMO had 0 rushing yards?
Yeah, that's impressive. So is NDSU running for 240 against YSU.

My point is the #2 and #3 teams have a lot more quality victories. JSU has a better loss and no FCS losses. It appears they're valuing good losses much more heavily than good wins which is xcrazyx to me.

Also, could be that JSU's AD is on the selection committee...

[JSUSoutherner]

SEMO had 0 rushing yards?
Not just SEMO. Nobody has ran on us this year. Honestly I think holding DeAngelo Henderson to 48 rushing is more impressive than blanking SEMO.

[F'N Hawks]

FWIW, I see South Dakota State entering the list and probably Top 8 if they beat USD and UNI. So this list is changing, at least at the bottom. SDSU has to be at #11.

Central Arkansas will be out if they lose to Samuel.

[PantherRob82]

WTF. These guys are awful. I like this week's better, but that much change in one week shows how terrible they are.

[Serpentor]

Meh, I guess this is okay.

[dbackjon]

2 from Big Sky, CAA, Southland and Southern Conference

1 from MVFC and OVC

0 from Big South, Patriot, NEC, Pioneer


Top 6 are each from different conferences, 7-10 are the second teams

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah, that's impressive. So is NDSU running for 240 against YSU.

My point is the #2 and #3 teams have a lot more quality victories. JSU has a better loss and no FCS losses. It appears they're valuing good losses much more heavily than good wins which is xcrazyx to me.

Also, could be that JSU's AD is on the selection committee...
Should it matter that he's on the committee? Do they not leave him out of discussions regarding JSU?

[clenz]

Damn. I'm in class from 5:30 until about 9 tonight. I'm going to be so far behind on reading...

[beerkat]

Not much logical consistency in the rankings. Not that I am surprised.

[FearTheBeak]

Yeah, that's impressive. So is NDSU running for 240 against YSU.

My point is the #2 and #3 teams have a lot more quality victories. JSU has a better loss and no FCS losses. It appears they're valuing good losses much more heavily than good wins which is xcrazyx to me.

Also, could be that JSU's AD is on the selection committee...I agree with you, Its just that I believe they are keeping us there because of the consistent defensive play we have had. In all fairness we should be #3. Still waiting for the wave delusional sammy fans to come stir things up

[abc123]

2 from Big Sky, CAA, Southland and Southern Conference

1 from MVFC and OVC


Top 6 are each from different conferences, 7-10 are the second teams
Which honestly isn't that surprising considering the answers the committee chair has given.

[Thumper 76]

FWIW, I see South Dakota State entering the list and probably Top 8 if they beat USD and UNI. So this list is changing, at least at the bottom. SDSU has to be at #11.

Central Arkansas will be out if they lose to Samuel.

Looking at this ranking I don't see anyway SDSU jumps into the top 8 by beating two teams who would have losing records after the game without some major chaos and teams losing who shouldn't.


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[F'N Hawks]

Damn. I'm in class from 5:30 until about 9 tonight. I'm going to be so far behind on reading...

Thinking it might be a bit more civil this week now that Samuel got dropped. All the angst will now to turn on The Beaks.

[Professor Chaos]

Should it matter that he's on the committee? Do they not leave him out of discussions regarding JSU?
That was more tongue in cheek than anything.

Yes, when they discuss JSU or any OVC team when they meet in Indy to set the bracket he has to leave the room. I doubt that policy is the same though when they're just discussing over their weekly teleconference. And I'm fairly sure this ranking is just each committee member voting and compiling a poll that way.

[F'N Hawks]

Looking at this ranking I don't see anyway SDSU jumps into the top 8 by beating two teams who would have losing records after the game without some major chaos and teams losing who shouldn't.

That could be. I just think the committee will still see UNI as a big win, no matter what. They have rating power.

Don't think UND should be in the Top 8, either, even after the NAU game (if they win). Having them at 10 is fine because it means nothing but looks good on a graphic.

[JSUSoutherner]

Thinking it might be a bit more civil this week now that Samuel got dropped. All the angst will now to turn on The Beaks.
The difference is (most of us) we aren't completely delusional all and most of us actually agree we are a tad overrated.

HOWEVER, I'll gladly take the number one seed. No complaints here. :D

[Daytripper]

I'm not going to argue about it. I knew it would happen. Just have to see how the rest of the season shakes out.

Also, if they are going to place that much weight on SOS, we should probably be below The Citadel.

[Serpentor]

We actually didn't fall as far as I thought we would, so yay for low expectations! :D

[Thumper 76]

That could be. I just think the committee will still see UNI as a big win, no matter what. They have rating power.

Don't think UND should be in the Top 8, either, even after the NAU game (if they win). Having them at 10 is fine because it means nothing but looks good on a graphic.

I think if they win out UND gets a seed over SDSU for sure with SDSU having the bad loss to ISUr. If both win out I would be willing to bet one of them gets a seed. If UND gets the seed SDSU will get fed to Grand Forks and if SDSU gets a seed UND will be fed to Fargo.


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[Professor Chaos]

Looking at this ranking I don't see anyway SDSU jumps into the top 8 by beating two teams who would have losing records after the game without some major chaos and teams losing who shouldn't.


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Yeah, UND popping in there ahead of SDSU makes that less likely. UND's remaining games against @UNC and NAU are arguably just as tough or, at the very least, not that far behind playing USD and @UNI. So that's another team SDSU needs to lose another game (along with Richmond, Chatty, and UCA) in order to make the jump into the seeds.

[F'N Hawks]

I think if they win out UND gets a seed over SDSU for sure with SDSU having the bad loss to ISUr. If both win out I would be willing to bet one of them gets a seed. If UND gets the seed SDSU will get fed to Grand Forks and if SDSU gets a seed UND will be fed to Fargo.


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Bad loss to ISUr? They are going to end up 6-5 with some good wins and might even slip in at #24. No way they can hold that loss against SDSU.

I just don't see UND's resume holding up once everything is laid out on the table.

[F'N Hawks]

Yeah, UND popping in there ahead of SDSU makes that less likely. UND's remaining games against @UNC and NAU are arguably just as tough or, at the very least, not that far behind playing USD and @UNI. So that's another team SDSU needs to lose another game (along with Richmond, Chatty, and UCA) in order to make the jump into the seeds.

UND is done this week. They already beat UNC. Playing NAU for the conference championship on Saturday. Bye next week.

[kalm]

I think if they win out UND gets a seed over SDSU for sure with SDSU having the bad loss to ISUr. If both win out I would be willing to bet one of them gets a seed. If UND gets the seed SDSU will get fed to Grand Forks and if SDSU gets a seed UND will be fed to Fargo.


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ISUr is not a bad loss.

[Professor Chaos]

UND is done this week. They already beat UNC. Playing NAU for the conference championship on Saturday. Bye next week.
Ah! Yeah, that's me just being lazy and looking at the last two teams on their schedule without paying attention to the date.

That does bring up an interesting conundrum though that I think Illinois St may have the same problem with. Does having a week 12 bye hurt you in the selection committee meeting room? It shouldn't but that weekend is when they're all hunkered down together picking every team apart and, I'm sure, watching some games too. Does not having that fresh recollection of a team's last game cause the committee to devalue them a bit?

[Professor Chaos]

ISUr is not a bad loss.
Or if it is then Richmond and UND losing to Stony Brook is just as bad as of right now.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Ah! Yeah, that's me just being lazy and looking at the last two teams on their schedule without paying attention to the date.

That does bring up an interesting conundrum though that I think Illinois St may have the same problem with. Does having a week 12 bye hurt you in the selection committee meeting room? It shouldn't but that weekend is when they're all hunkered down picking every team apart and, I'm sure, watching some games too. Does not having that fresh recollection of a team's last game cause the committee to devalue them a bit?

If the NCAA basketball tournament is any indication then yes absolutely. Teams who's tournaments are sooner than others do get forgotten about a little bit.

[F'N Hawks]

Ah! Yeah, that's me just being lazy and looking at the last two teams on their schedule without paying attention to the date.

That does bring up an interesting conundrum though that I think Illinois St may have the same problem with. Does having a week 12 bye hurt you in the selection committee meeting room? It shouldn't but that weekend is when they're all hunkered down together picking every team apart and, I'm sure, watching some games too. Does not having that fresh recollection of a team's last game cause the committee to devalue them a bit?

Well, let me think. How did that late game at Poly work out last year for UND? Last game of the day, up 35-0 at halftime............:D

[dudeitsaid]

Not sure what is impressing them so much about JSU.

Based on what they did in the playoffs last year, I would have them at number 1. ;)

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[UNIFanSince1983]

I posted this in another thread but it is relevant here too:

But on the bright side for SHSU their last game is also their toughest game. If they take care of bidness against UCA then they will make it back up a little probably to around 3.

[milleniumkat]

Defense I guess. Only thing I can think of.


Man, I can't wait to hear the SHSU Novemberists now.

No problems here. Football is played on a field not by a committee. I feel confident in my teams ability to win on the road.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[Thumper 76]

ISUr is not a bad loss.


Or if it is then Richmond and UND losing to Stony Brook is just as bad as of right now.

IMO if you are being looked at for a seed and have a loss to a team barely over .500, it's a bad loss.


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[JSUSoutherner]

ISUr is not a bad loss.
Yes it is.

[F'N Hawks]

IMO if you are being looked at for a seed and have a loss to a team barely over .500, it's a bad loss.


Goes back to my comment about UND's resume not stacking up, then. Stony Brook would need to get to 7 wins and make it in for that to be an OK loss.

[JSUSoutherner]

No problems here. Football is played on a field not by a committee. I feel confident in my teams ability to win on the road.


"You Can't run with #81!"
Gotta admit, I expected you guys to be in full meltdown mode for dropping two spots with a win. :D

[Thumper 76]

Goes back to my comment about UND's resume not stacking up, then. Stony Brook would need to get to 7 wins and make it in for that to be an OK loss.

I would rank the SBU one as a better loss to the committee for a couple reasons. One was it was a very close loss all the way across the country. Two, it was the first game of the year so they aren't the same team as they were to start.


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[milleniumkat]

My only issue is JSU. They have struggled to score points all year and really only had one dominate game in a weak conference.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[FargoBison]

I think SDSU fans need to be big NAU, JMU and Wofford fans this week. That would take care of three teams...UCA/SHSU loser probably won't get a seed.

[CappinHard]

I think SDSU fans need to be big NAU, JMU and Wofford fans this week. That would take care of three teams...UCA/SHSU loser probably won't get a seed.

This.

[Jacks02]

Any chance ISU pulls a WIU from last season and gets in to the playoffs with a 6-5 record?

Would have wins over Big 10 Northwestern and playoff teams SDSU and WIU and would finish the season by winning 4 of their last 5.

[FargoBison]

Any chance ISU pulls a WIU from last season and gets in to the playoffs with a 6-5 record?

Would have wins over Big 10 Northwestern and playoff teams SDSU and WIU and would finish the season by winning 4 of their last 5.

I have them in my bracket, the bubble is very weak this year.

[JSUSoutherner]

Any chance ISU pulls a WIU from last season and gets in to the playoffs with a 6-5 record?

Would have wins over Big 10 Northwestern and playoff teams SDSU and WIU and would finish the season by winning 4 of their last 5.
Depends on how bad they think losses to EIU and South Dakota are.

[Daytripper]

Gotta admit, I expected you guys to be in full meltdown mode for dropping two spots with a win. :D

Based on what the committee chairman said, this was inevitable.

[kalm]

IMO if you are being looked at for a seed and have a loss to a team barely over .500, it's a bad loss.


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That's a good point, Thump.

But some teams are inconsistent and/or improve during a season. They have the talent to beat anyone. EG: Northwestern, SDSU, WIU. Weighing that loss against a weak schedule is question.

[The Yo Show]

Man... wonder what this will look like next week? Would also like to be a fly on the wall for the discussions on these ratings

[BEAR]

Not much change for UCA. As I expected. The teams above us are just too good.

Let's see what we have left.

Nicholls- 2 point loss to SEC Georgia. 1 point loss to South Alabama. 17 point loss to SHSU. Yet some close games to teams they should have blown out.....seriously. Won the last 4/5 games. Second in conference behind UCA and SHSU.

SHSU- Well, 9-0, likely 10-0 by then. Nationally ranked. Powerful offense. Decent defense. Hard to read.

Neither of these last two games will be easy. The Nicholls team that played up early in the year could show up. Sammy may be a team that has enough points to do damage early and take us out of it quickly.

In the end I don't see us getting more than and I mean AT MOST an 8 seed. If we beat the next two teams maybe a 7.

[JSUSoutherner]

Not much change for UCA. As I expected. The teams above us are just too good.

Let's see what we have left.

Nicholls- 2 point loss to SEC Georgia. 1 point loss to South Alabama. 17 point loss to SHSU. Yet some close games to teams they should have blown out.....seriously. Won the last 4/5 games. Second in conference behind UCA and SHSU.

SHSU- Well, 9-0, likely 10-0 by then. Nationally ranked. Powerful offense. Decent defense. Hard to read.

Neither of these last two games will be easy. The Nicholls team that played up early in the year could show up. Sammy may be a team that has enough points to do damage early and take us out of it quickly.

In the end I don't see us getting more than and I mean AT MOST an 8 seed. If we beat the next two teams maybe a 7.
That's a bold statement.

[BEAR]

That's a bold statement.

Just playing fair. We haven't played them yet and I've only watched a few games. Blowout ones.

[Professor Chaos]

Not much change for UCA. As I expected. The teams above us are just too good.

Let's see what we have left.

Nicholls- 2 point loss to SEC Georgia. 1 point loss to South Alabama. 17 point loss to SHSU. Yet some close games to teams they should have blown out.....seriously. Won the last 4/5 games. Second in conference behind UCA and SHSU.

SHSU- Well, 9-0, likely 10-0 by then. Nationally ranked. Powerful offense. Decent defense. Hard to read.

Neither of these last two games will be easy. The Nicholls team that played up early in the year could show up. Sammy may be a team that has enough points to do damage early and take us out of it quickly.

In the end I don't see us getting more than and I mean AT MOST an 8 seed. If we beat the next two teams maybe a 7.
I think UCA can get to #6. Chatty is a pretty weak 7 right now. They've beaten Samford and not much else. If they beat Wofford that will be ok but UCA's (potential) win over SHSU and win over Arkansas St would be enough to overtake Chatty IMO.

[Daytripper]

Not much change for UCA. As I expected. The teams above us are just too good.

Let's see what we have left.

Nicholls- 2 point loss to SEC Georgia. 1 point loss to South Alabama. 17 point loss to SHSU. Yet some close games to teams they should have blown out.....seriously. Won the last 4/5 games. Second in conference behind UCA and SHSU.

SHSU- Well, 9-0, likely 10-0 by then. Nationally ranked. Powerful offense. Decent defense. Hard to read.

Neither of these last two games will be easy. The Nicholls team that played up early in the year could show up. Sammy may be a team that has enough points to do damage early and take us out of it quickly.

In the end I don't see us getting more than and I mean AT MOST an 8 seed. If we beat the next two teams maybe a 7.

You win out and beat an undefeated SHSU I think you could end up a 5, depending on what happens in front of you, because at minimum, the Bearkats will drop down below you, putting you at 8. I could see you jumping Richmond.

[BEAR]

Hey where's ChattownamawoccasinsI'mthemanwiththetop10team?

[TheKingpin28]

I've seen fire and I've seen rain...

But in all honesty, it is better than last week but has some work to do.

Original

1. JSU
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND

IMO it should be:

1. EWU
2. NDSU
3. JMU or The Citadel
4. JMU or The Citadel
5. JSU
6. SHSU
7. Chattanooga
8. UCA
9. Richmond
10. UND

Again, it is getting better though

[BEAR]

You win out and beat an undefeated SHSU I think you could end up a 5, depending on what happens in front of you, because at minimum, the Bearkats will drop down below you, putting you at 8. I could see you jumping Richmond.

The SLC just can't figure out that if we both win this weekend the UCA v. SHSU game should be on ASN...seriously.

[LuckyKat]

Dont mean squat, let start this tournament, so we can knock off all the hopely dopelys for a deep run and play some real football

[Sammy94]

No problems here. Football is played on a field not by a committee. I feel confident in my teams ability to win on the road.


"You Can't run with #81!"


No problems here, the last one is the one that matters. After we take care of business against UCA, we will be in the top 3, if not top 2 depending on what everyone else does.

[ElCid]

I'm not going to argue about it. I knew it would happen. Just have to see how the rest of the season shakes out.

Also, if they are going to place that much weight on SOS, we should probably be below The Citadel.

Right or wrong I think that is a placement due to history. Plus SHSU is running up big scores. We have not. I guess we should have when we could have but we only reined it in twice.

[clenz]

Reading mark for me to know where I left off after I get out of class tonight.

Leave me something good to read before bed so I can get out of textbooks for a bit.

Thanks...

xcoffeex

[Sammy94]

Right or wrong I think that is a placement due to history. Plus SHSU is running up big scores. We have not. I guess we should have when we could have but we only reined it in twice.

JSU gets barely by OVC teams and are #1? I don't think running up the score means squat, past playoff history I think does though.

[Twentysix]

I'm not going to argue about it. I knew it would happen. Just have to see how the rest of the season shakes out.

Also, if they are going to place that much weight on SOS, we should probably be below The Citadel.


agree

[JSUSoutherner]

JSU gets barely by OVC teams and are #1? I don't think running up the score means squat, past playoff history I think does though.
You realize our average margin of victory in the conference is about 20 points, right?

We've only finished one conference game with less than a 3 score lead.

[Professor Chaos]

The NCAA actually released an article explaining their rationale for the movement this week. Good read: College football rankings: Schedules a factor in 2nd FCS Committee poll (http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2016-11-10/college-football-rankings-schedules-factor-2nd-fcs-committee-poll?cid=ncaafcssocial_tw_sf42004996)


"The primary objective of the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee in releasing the Top 10 teams in rank order three times this year was plain and simple, to bring conversation to the Football Championship Subdivision fan base during the regular season,” said committee chair, Brian A. Hutchinson, Director of Athletics at Morehead State University.

After Week 1, the first release accomplished this mission. However, the committee is doing its due diligence each week. First, gathering the regional advisory committee votes. The committee also spends time on a conference call evaluating each region and the week’s vote among each regional advisory committee. Once each committee member is done vetting his region, the committee goes through each regional vote again to evaluate the top teams in each region. Committee members from each region will once again examine the credentials of the top ranked institutions in his region.

After the weekly call, each committee member has time to deliberate the in-depth conversations during the call based on the selection criteria. Each committee member then proceeds to vote for his Top 25, in which, the Top 10 ranked teams are released each week.

Each week can be very fluid with teams moving up and down, or moving in or dropping out of the Top 10 during the three released rankings leading into selections and ultimately, Selection Sunday, Nov. 20 at 11 a.m. (ET) on ESPNU using the criteria in selecting the 14 at-large participants in the 2016 NCAA Division I Football Championship. The committee is very invested in its time and effort in each weekly ranking.”

[Schism55]

You realize our average margin of victory in the conference is about 20 points, right?

We've only finished one conference game with less than a 3 score lead.
OVC is going to be a 1 bid league this year. Shouldn't you be beating them by at least that much?

[Katfan]

Historically Speaking, James Madison > Sam Houston.
Maybe if you go back far enough.

[JSUSoutherner]

OVC is going to be a 1 bid league this year. Shouldn't you be beating them by at least that much?

That's my point. We are beating them by that much. So yeah.

The narrative we are barely scraping through the conference doesn't hold much water when you crunch the numbers.

Margin of victory in conference:

JSU: 19.3 points

Sammy: 22.3 points


No, we aren't putting up monster offensive numbers but the way our defense is playing we don't have to.

[Katfan]

Historically Speaking, James Madison > Sam Houston.
Sorry, I thought you were talking football, not history.

[FearTheBeak]

That's my point. We are beating them by that much. So yeah.

The narrative we are barely scraping through the conference doesn't hold much water when you crunch the numbers.

Margin of victory in conference:

JSU: 19.3 points

Sammy: 22.3 points


No, we aren't putting up monster offensive numbers but the way our defense is playing we don't have to. Honestly a bigger problem then inconsistencies on offense is how prone we are to getting penalties, crazy frustrating to watch.

[Katfan]

Honestly a bigger problem then inconsistencies on offense is how prone we are to getting penalties, crazy frustrating to watch.
That's been a problem for us as well, especially on D. Drives me crazy

[JSUSoutherner]

Honestly a bigger problem then inconsistencies on offense is how prone we are to getting penalties, crazy frustrating to watch.
I honestly think they go hand-in-hand. In my opinion the biggest problem with our offense is penalties. We put up good yardage totals every week but we get penalties putting us in 3rd in long situations too often and it kills our scoring ability. If the offense cleaned up their act we could put up Sam Houston type numbers on offense. That said, it won't matter unless we execute and so far we haven't... consistently anyway.

[ElCid]

Just to see these teams side by side, here are the schedules they have played According to Massey's rankings. Refer to key for what each means. I purposely left the opponents names off and used their rank# instead. I placed them in order for the estimated final SOS. This could change obviously.

This is not meant to say that the teams should be in this order. Margin of victory, home/away, rivalry status, and other factors should be evaluated as well. This is simply who beat what schedule and SOS data. Hope folks can use it. I like visual aids myself.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23841&stc=1

[JSUSoutherner]

Just to see these teams side by side, here are the schedules they have played According to Massey's rankings. Refer to key for what each means. I purposely left the opponents names off and used their rank# instead. I placed them in order for the estimated final SOS. This could change obviously.

This is not meant to say that the teams should be in this order. Margin of victory, home/away, rivalry status, and other factors should be evaluated as well. This is simply who beat what schedule and SOS data. Hope folks can use it. I like visual aids myself.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23841&stc=1
It tickles me to death how our D2 game is harder than anyone Sammy has played so far this year.

Fantastic chart BTW.

[ElCid]

It tickles me to death how our D2 game is harder than anyone Sammy has played so far this year.

Fantastic chart BTW.

Yeah, that was a bit odd when I saw that.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah, that was a bit odd when I saw that.
UNA is a good team. I would be willing to bet they could make the FCS playoffs.

Their only loss on the year is us.

[ElCid]

UNA is a good team. I would be willing to bet they could make the FCS playoffs.

Their only loss on the year is us.

I wouldn't go that far, but they would be a mid level team in most FCS conferences.

[Professor Chaos]

UNA is a good team. I would be willing to bet they could make the FCS playoffs if they were in the OVC or SLC.

Their only loss on the year is us.
FIFY

[JSUSoutherner]

I wouldn't go that far, but they would be a mid level team in most FCS conferences.
I would. However, I don't know that they will be moving up anytime soon so it doesn't really matter. Would love to get them in the OVC. They would be the second best team in the conference on day one.


FIFY
That's fair.

[Red & Black]

Playing NAU for the conference championship on Saturday.

Kinda.

[melloware13]

Just to see these teams side by side, here are the schedules they have played According to Massey's rankings. Refer to key for what each means. I purposely left the opponents names off and used their rank# instead. I placed them in order for the estimated final SOS. This could change obviously.

This is not meant to say that the teams should be in this order. Margin of victory, home/away, rivalry status, and other factors should be evaluated as well. This is simply who beat what schedule and SOS data. Hope folks can use it. I like visual aids myself.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23841&stc=1

I'm trying to figure out the formula they use for SOS. I'd think lower = better, but it correlates with the data. If JMU wins out, I think they could jump JSU (in my head I have NDSU and EWU top 2). If those 4 win out, I don't see Sammy getting a top 4 spot. Citadel is the wild card, with their FBS game remaining.

[ElCid]

I'm trying to figure out the formula they use for SOS. I'd think lower = better, but it correlates with the data. If JMU wins out, I think they could jump JSU (in my head I have NDSU and EWU top 2). If those 4 win out, I don't see Sammy getting a top 4 spot. Citadel is the wild card, with their FBS game remaining.

No, the team rankings here are just that 1-6XX. 1 being Alabama. That is just the rank # not the raw data number. The ratings in green numbers are the SOS raw numbers. NDSU at 46.84 hardest, SHSU at 25.33 weakest.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I am pleasantly surprised that Richmond held up.

[X-Factor]

Just to see these teams side by side, here are the schedules they have played According to Massey's rankings. Refer to key for what each means. I purposely left the opponents names off and used their rank# instead. I placed them in order for the estimated final SOS. This could change obviously.

This is not meant to say that the teams should be in this order. Margin of victory, home/away, rivalry status, and other factors should be evaluated as well. This is simply who beat what schedule and SOS data. Hope folks can use it. I like visual aids myself.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23841&stc=1

SHSU no surprise, but I didn't realize JMU was so low. Hard to justify a top 4 seed with results against that schedule vs what say Citadel can do (3 wins so far better than anything JMU can claim even if JMU wins out). It would be nice to make a similar table with Sag to see what the differences are.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My 2$:

1. NDSU
2. EWU
3. James Madison
4. Citadel
5. JSU

[kalm]

Sorry, I thought you were talking football, not history.

Fish on! Lol

[BEAR]

Just to see these teams side by side, here are the schedules they have played According to Massey's rankings. Refer to key for what each means. I purposely left the opponents names off and used their rank# instead. I placed them in order for the estimated final SOS. This could change obviously.

This is not meant to say that the teams should be in this order. Margin of victory, home/away, rivalry status, and other factors should be evaluated as well. This is simply who beat what schedule and SOS data. Hope folks can use it. I like visual aids myself.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23841&stc=1

Thats an interesting chart. I didnt realize UCAs schedule numbers were that high. Or that Sam's were that low. ND can help themselves with a win over 136.

[milleniumkat]

You realize our average margin of victory in the conference is about 20 points, right?

We've only finished one conference game with less than a 3 score lead.

Yeah but 12-3 sucks bro. That's a baseball score. lol


"You Can't run with #81!"

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah but 12-3 sucks bro. That's a baseball score. lol


"You Can't run with #81!"
Doesn't suck if you're the one that scores the 12.

A win is win.

[milleniumkat]

Doesn't suck if you're the one that scores the 12.

A win is win.

No no No!! No it doesn't!! You haven't been paying attention!!! Delete this traitors account!!! STAT! He's embarrassing the AGS Horde!!


"You Can't run with #81!"

[CappinHard]

The NCAA actually released an article explaining their rationale for the movement this week. Good read: College football rankings: Schedules a factor in 2nd FCS Committee poll (http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2016-11-10/college-football-rankings-schedules-factor-2nd-fcs-committee-poll?cid=ncaafcssocial_tw_sf42004996)

Laughable quote: "The committee is very invested in its time and effort in each weekly ranking"

[ElCid]

SHSU no surprise, but I didn't realize JMU was so low. Hard to justify a top 4 seed with results against that schedule vs what say Citadel can do (3 wins so far better than anything JMU can claim even if JMU wins out). It would be nice to make a similar table with Sag to see what the differences are.

You had to make me go and do it didn't ya?

Here you go based on Sagarin.

I again put the teams in order of their SOS. The different between this and Massey is that it is their CURRENT SOS and not the estimated final. Also there are 253 Div I teams so these rankings match just those 253 teams.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23843&stc=1

[Twentysix]

You had to make me go and do it didn't ya?

Here you go based on Sagarin.

I again put the teams in order of their SOS. The different between this and Massey is that it is their CURRENT SOS and not the estimated final. Also there are 253 Div I teams so these rankings match just those 253 teams.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23843&stc=1

Thank you. That is a strong case for an ndsu #1

[Kemo]

IMO if you are being looked at for a seed and have a loss to a team barely over .500, it's a bad loss.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't consider losing to ISU-Red on the road as a bad loss (or a good one, for that matter), but I'm not sure if it matters what you label it. What is important is that it's an similar loss to those teams in which SDSU will be competing for a seed has. I'm not saying the committee will delve enough into the total resumes to give SDSU a fighting chance at a seed the way the rankings are currently, but the Jacks do have the resume to be considered for a seed.

If SDSU wins their last 2 games (and that's a big if, because I never feel good about playing at the UNI Dome) and if I was an administrator, I'd be faxing each member two things:

1) A copy of the letter from the conference stating that the Jackrabbits had two TDs taken away from them against the Redbirds that should have stood.

2) A copy of the computer rankings of all the FCS conferences to illustrate the discrepancy between the strength of the MVFC and rest of the division, along with a friendly reminder that SDSU won the autobid for said-conference.

[Cocky]

FIFY

You can add the SOCON to the list for sure and after watching EIU not sure UNA would be near or better than ISUr in the MVC.

[milleniumkat]

That's my point. We are beating them by that much. So yeah.

The narrative we are barely scraping through the conference doesn't hold much water when you crunch the numbers.

Margin of victory in conference:

JSU: 19.3 points

Sammy: 22.3 points


No, we aren't putting up monster offensive numbers but the way our defense is playing we don't have to.

Kats will beat the computers too!! Yesssss!


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

Change the name of this site from AGS to SOSaturday. Gag.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

Did i just read where JSU's AD is on that committee??


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161111/2287b96c51b26997d9352a3ee2e3840c.png

lololll. yeah, this is an honest poll. haha. what a joke.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161111/6da7b80bc65f0f161da77b5fb161c72a.png

are we 100% that's a dude?


"You Can't run with #81!"

[SDSUAlum08]

I don't consider losing to ISU-Red on the road as a bad loss (or a good one, for that matter), but I'm not sure if it matters what you label it. What is important is that it's an similar loss to those teams in which SDSU will be competing for a seed has. I'm not saying the committee will delve enough into the total resumes to give SDSU a fighting chance at a seed the way the rankings are currently, but the Jacks do have the resume to be considered for a seed.

If SDSU wins their last 2 games (and that's a big if, because I never feel good about playing at the UNI Dome) and if I was an administrator, I'd be faxing each member two things:

1) A copy of the letter from the conference stating that the Jackrabbits had two TDs taken away from them against the Redbirds that should have stood.

2) A copy of the computer rankings of all the FCS conferences to illustrate the discrepancy between the strength of the MVFC and rest of the division, along with a friendly reminder that SDSU won the autobid for said-conference.

The biggest question for me is when is the last time a MVFC auto qualifier wasn't seeded?

[Professor Chaos]

Change the name of this site from AGS to SOSaturday. Gag.


"You Can't run with #81!"
If SOS and computer ratings were all that mattered like some of you Sam backers keep shouting into the wind about then SHSU would be ranked a lot lower than #5 by the selection committee and #6 in the AGS Poll.

[milleniumkat]

If SOS and computer ratings were all that mattered like some of you Sam backers keep shouting into the wind about then SHSU would be ranked a lot lower than #5 by the selection committee and #6 in the AGS Poll.

i'm just saying that's literally on every thread, every few posts. do you guys know anything else about football to discuss? Do y'all actually watch games or just read the box scores?


"You Can't run with #81!"

[Professor Chaos]

The biggest question for me is when is the last time a MVFC auto qualifier wasn't seeded?
2010. MVFC autobid UNI wasn't even granted a first round bye I believe and that's when 12 of 20 playoff teams got byes but only 5 were seeded. I think they went 7-4 (6-2) that year. The only other MVFC teams that made the playoffs that year were NDSU and WIU who also finished 7-4.

That was also the last year someone not named NDSU had the MVFC autobid.

[milleniumkat]

Anyway Seitz is gunna cry bacon grease in the playoffs. Boss Hog's plans never worked.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[Professor Chaos]

i'm just saying that's literally on every thread, every few posts. do you guys know anything else about football to discuss? Do y'all actually watch games or just read the box scores?


"You Can't run with #81!"
Depends on your perspective I guess. I can also say the same for hearing about how deadly the SHSU offense has been or how they've pulled starters in the 2nd drive of the first quarters (exaggeration) or how they've been so good over the past 5 years that their SOS this year shouldn't matter.

Both the SOS argument against and the MOV argument for Sam are valid. It's just that only one of those is an actual criteria that the selection committee is supposed to use.

[katstrapper]

Basically the same thoughts I had, still not sure why EWU is not #1 but it is an improvement.

Kind of surprised at the big SHSU drop, I guess the committee found some SOS rankings to look at.


Should stop all the AGS crybabies xbawlingxfrom talking about "slot voting" for a week.

[kalm]

You had to make me go and do it didn't ya?

Here you go based on Sagarin.

I again put the teams in order of their SOS. The different between this and Massey is that it is their CURRENT SOS and not the estimated final. Also there are 253 Div I teams so these rankings match just those 253 teams.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23843&stc=1

Outstanding work here El Cid! Between this and Tru's AGS bracket there's a ton of great information. xnodx

[ST_Lawson]

2010. MVFC autobid UNI wasn't even granted a first round bye I believe and that's when 12 of 20 playoff teams got byes but only 5 were seeded. I think they went 7-4 (6-2) that year. The only other MVFC teams that made the playoffs that year were NDSU and WIU who also finished 7-4.

That was also the last year someone not named NDSU had the MVFC autobid.

Yup, for Western it all came down to our last game (UNI at WIU). They were going to win the conference no matter what, but if we beat them, we'd finish 7-4 and have wins over both of the other conference representatives (also won at the Fargodome earlier in the season). We won the game by double-digits if I remember correctly, and got in. UNI, because they'd lost and were only 7-4 overall still got in due to conference auto-bid, but was actually the lowest ranked of the MVFC playoff teams.


NDSU was ranked #9 in the Sports Network poll, but was 3rd in the conference
WIU was ranked #17 in the poll, but was second in the conference (and had beaten both of the other two)
UNI was ranked #19 in the poll, but won the conference.


The ranking essentially held true, as well, with UNI losing in the first round to Lehigh, WIU beating Coastal Carolina, but losing in the second round to App State, and NDSU beating Robert Morris and Montana State, but losing in the third round to Eastern Washington (in a game that I think very few fans will forget).

[AmsterBison]

ElCid: That was some great work. Thanks.

If I were using this, I'd probably drop off the lowest-rank team. While I think North Alabama probably is around a 150, it's really hard to tell when there are so few quality FCS v D2 games.

[RabidRabbit]

For SDSU, they'd be #3 in SOS on this ElCid list. Would like them in the discussion for a top 8 seed.
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23845&stc=1

[JSUSoutherner]

For SDSU, they'd be #3 in SOS on this ElCid list. Would like them in the discussion for a top 8 seed.
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23845&stc=1

Northern Iowa being 76 is a joke.

[NDB]

Why? Because you say so?

[RabidRabbit]

Too bad so few non-MVFC teams get to experience UNI this season. Iowa St. wishes they hadn't.

[JSUSoutherner]

Why? Because you say so?
Sagarin has them as the third best team in the FCS.

A 4-5 team. As number 3. Give me a break.


Too bad so few non-MVFC teams get to experience UNI this season. Iowa St. wishes they hadn't.

So it's because the MVFC is so strong? Then why is YSU ranked 20 spots below them when YSU beat them?

[RabidRabbit]

YSU continued to schedule NEC teams for their OOC FCS games, and a so-so WVU for their FBS game. UNI is their highest rated win, and they don't play WIU, and lost to both NDSU and SDSU. So really, no quality wins, only quality losses for the 'Guins.

[JSUSoutherner]

YSU continued to schedule NEC teams for their OOC FCS games, and a so-so WVU for their FBS game. UNI is their highest rated win, and they don't play WIU, and lost to both NDSU and SDSU. So really, no quality wins, only quality losses for the 'Guins.
That so-so WVU team is 7-1 and ranked 16th nationally. Iowa State is ranked 89th in sagarin and their only win is over San Jose State(137). Outside of ISU UNI's best win is.... Missouri State?

So a win over a FBS basement dweller makes 4-5 UNI (whose only other claim to fame right now is losing to Montana, EWU, and NDSU) the third ranked team in the FCS?

[thebootfitter]

Northern Iowa being 76 is a joke.
Eh? No joke. Just the way the numbers work.


Sagarin has them as the third best team in the FCS.

A 4-5 team. As number 3. Give me a break.
It's quite easy for a formula to be objective. Not so easy for a person who looks at a 4-5 record and says, "No way!"


So it's because the MVFC is so strong? Then why is YSU ranked 20 spots below them when YSU beat them?
If you really want to learn how the computer rankings work, you could take some time to do the research. I'd even be willing to give you some information to get you started. But if you just want something to b!tch about, then keep at it. Won't change anything.

Look, I'm not saying that Sagarin and/or Massey are the ONLY way to consider the relative strength of teams. I'm not even saying they are the RIGHT way to do it. But I am saying they are NOT rigged. They are objective measures that are based on formulas that are the same for every team. When you have a basic understanding of how they work, it is very easy to explain things like YSU being ranked 20 spots below UNI, even though YSU beat UNI. Or why UNI is ranked so highly.

[Trumpster]

YSU continued to schedule NEC teams for their OOC FCS games, and a so-so WVU for their FBS game. UNI is their highest rated win, and they don't play WIU, and lost to both NDSU and SDSU. So really, no quality wins, only quality losses for the 'Guins.

They must be closer to a seed than SDSU then amirite?

[Cocky]

Eh? No joke. Just the way the numbers work.


It's quite easy for a formula to be objective. Not so easy for a person who looks at a 4-5 record and says, "No way!"


If you really want to learn how the computer rankings work, you could take some time to do the research. I'd even be willing to give you some information to get you started. But if you just want something to b!tch about, then keep at it. Won't change anything.

Look, I'm not saying that Sagarin and/or Massey are the ONLY way to consider the relative strength of teams. I'm not even saying they are the RIGHT way to do it. But I am saying they are NOT rigged. They are objective measures that are based on formulas that are the same for every team. When you have a basic understanding of how they work, it is very easy to explain things like YSU being ranked 20 spots below UNI, even though YSU beat UNI. Or why UNI is ranked so highly.
And humans enter some of the valuations. Its a computer program ranking with human elements.

[JSUSoutherner]

Eh? No joke. Just the way the numbers work.


It's quite easy for a formula to be objective. Not so easy for a person who looks at a 4-5 record and says, "No way!"


If you really want to learn how the computer rankings work, you could take some time to do the research. I'd even be willing to give you some information to get you started. But if you just want something to b!tch about, then keep at it. Won't change anything.

Look, I'm not saying that Sagarin and/or Massey are the ONLY way to consider the relative strength of teams. I'm not even saying they are the RIGHT way to do it. But I am saying they are not rigged. They are objective measures that are based on formulas that are the same for every team. When you have a basic understanding of how they work, it is very easy to explain things like YSU being ranked 20 spots below UNI, even though YSU beat UNI.
I would love to know how they work in more detail.

I'm only arguing because I think it's stupid that I call it out then people get upset about it. Just because it comes out that way in the computer doesn't make the computer right.

[thebootfitter]

And humans enter some of the valuations. Its a computer program ranking with human elements.
The human element is only the parameters of the equations. How much weight is given to each, etc. Sure, you can make adjustments to those weights and formulas and come up with a different answer. That's why there are so many different computer rankings with so many different and varying lists. And that's also why none of them can be considered FINAL or BEST or RIGHT. But as long as each one uses a consistent formula for all teams, it is still a relatively unbiased way to compare the relative strength across teams.

Further, when you consider that the two most prominent systems (Massey and Sagarin) generally can predict the outcomes of games (W/L) with about 75-80% accuracy -- consistently across many teams and over the years (meanwhile understanding that the very nature of a statistical system like these allows for variance and anomalies and you will see a low ranked team beat a higher ranked team every so often), they prove to be a decent way to compare teams and should, in my opinion, at least be part of anyone's method for seeding or ranking teams.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Long-time reader, first-time poster. NOTE: This post might slip to a different spot in the thread due to requiring approval, so please consider this when reading.

I am an NDSU and UND fan (I know, its complicated).

However, I would like to comment on UNI, since the discussion has gotten a bit off the playoff rankings track. I would like to point out the following:

1. Beat Iowa State (at Iowa State; low FBS, but still FBS).
2. Lost to USD (by 4 at USD - which beat ISUr BTW).
3. Lost to YSU (lead 10-0, but gave up two late scores to lose 10-14; ISUr also lost to YSU).
4. Blew the doors off SIU, MiSU, and ISUb (which they should have).
5. Lost to NDSU, UM, and EWU, each by less than one score, and one on a trick play (EWU) - Please ask any of those fans of those teams what kind of team UNI is.

I am not a fan of UNI, and I am not saying they are third in the FCS. However, they are hard-nosed SOBs that would stack up in any conference.

BTW: ElCid, excellent job on the SOS schedules (I like looking at the actual data as well).

[thebootfitter]

I would love to know how they work in more detail.

I'm only arguing because I think it's stupid that I call it out then people get upset about it. Just because it comes out that way in the computer doesn't make the computer right.
The computer isn't "right" or "wrong." It just generates an answer based on the data that is put into it. And as the data continues to come in from new games each week, the computer continuously adjusts those answers. Given that the computers can predict outcomes with around 75+% accuracy, they should be given some credence, even if there are some head scratchers (like UNI this year) in the final rankings.

I'll attempt a simplified explanation. We'll see how it comes out:

Two teams, A & B, each play each other five times in a season on a neutral field (to remove the factors for home field advantage). Not realistic, but makes it easier to get the concept. Also, keep in mind that there are way too many variables in an actual game to predict anything with certainty. There is always going to be some element of surprise in what happens on the field. It's why we play the game. Whether a star player gets hurt, or the quarterback's girlfriend just dumped him and his mind isn't focused on the game, or a few "bad bounces" happen at the wrong time. Coaches sometimes make better adjustments. Sometimes a particular match-up is more favorable against one team than against another. Just because one team beats someone on the field one week doesn't mean they would always beat that team if ten or a hundred more games were played. (Thus why head-to-head and transitive properties can't always be trusted to predict future games in a vacuum.)
Game 1: A-14, B-7 -- Computer predicts that if they play again, Team A is 7 points "better" than Team B in the rankings.
Game 2: A-14, B-21 -- With each team beating the other by the same margin, each team would have the same ranking and the computer would predict a tie on a neutral field for the next game.
Game 3: A-28, B-7 -- This larger margin of victory gives A a bit of a boost in this closed system with just two teams. Average the total 21-pt margin in favor of Team A over 3 games (A = 56 total points / 3 games = 18.7, B = 35 / 3 = 11.7), and Team A would once again be 7 point favorites on a neutral field.
Game 4: A-35, B-0 -- An outcome this lopsided would be uncommon for two teams ranked only 7 points apart, but any given Saturday... What's interesting here is that even with a 35-0 drubbing of B, A would only be rated as roughly 16 points better than B. Total points for A = 91 / 4 games = 22.75; B = 28 / 4 games = 7.
Game 5: A-7, B-17 -- We'd probably label this a "revenge" game, or a "letdown" for Team A. But even with one team rated more than two touchdowns better than another team, there's still a pretty fair statistical chance of the lower ranked team to win.

If you remember back to statistics class in high school or college and the concept of "bell curves" and "standard deviations," you may remember that approx 68% of observations fall within one standard deviation of the mean (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule). While not true in this limited sample of five game observations, the standard deviation for most computer formulas on predicting games is around 14 points or two touchdowns. Which means roughly that a team rated 14 points lower than another has about a 16% chance (100% - 68% = 32% total -- about half of which would be on the higher end and half on the lower end, so half of 32% = 16%)

The final rankings for these two teams after 5 games in this closed system would be A = 98 total points / 5 games = 19.6, B = 52 total points / 5 games = 10.4. Team A is considered about 9 points better in the final rankings and even blanked Team B 35-0 in one game, yet over the short 5-game season, they also lost 2 games to Team B. Any Given Saturday.

Now... consider this sort of system with roughly 250 D-I teams each playing around a dozen games each year, with all of the outcomes of each game entering a big matrix and trying to find the "best fit" rating for each team based on all the data, trying to match as closely as possible the actual outcomes observed on the field, but also having to account for the anomalies and upsets that inevitably happen. That's essentially what a computer rating system does.

Again, remember that this is an over-simplified example, but hopefully it gives you some insight into why you're seeing what you're seeing.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Oh, and for FWIW, I was quite pleased to see UND has a SOS that stacks up with the top dogs. The difference between theirs and others is that they did not play the best teams, and they did not play the worst teams (at least according to Massey or Sagarin).

A couple of their wins might not have been the most impressive, but I might also add that their two losses were by a combined 5 points in the first two games of the season:

1. 4 point loss to Stony Brook (on an f'n blocked punt returned for TD).
2. 1 point loss to FBS Bowling Green (on a failed 2 pt conversion going for the win). I know it is Bowling Green, but still.

If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. It really would have been cool to see UND and EWU play, but perhaps we'll get to see that matchup in the playoffs.

[beerkat]

The human element is only the parameters of the equations. How much weight is given to each, etc. Sure, you can make adjustments to those weights and formulas and come up with a different answer. That's why there are so many different computer rankings with so many different and varying lists. And that's also why none of them can be considered FINAL or BEST or RIGHT. But as long as each one uses a consistent formula for all teams, it is still a relatively unbiased way to compare the relative strength across teams.

Further, when you consider that the two most prominent systems (Massey and Sagarin) generally can predict the outcomes of games (W/L) with about 75-80% accuracy -- consistently across many teams and over the years (meanwhile understanding that the very nature of a statistical system like these allows for variance and anomalies and you will see a low ranked team beat a higher ranked team every so often), they prove to be a decent way to compare teams and should, in my opinion, at least be part of anyone's method for seeding or ranking teams.

Would one of those anomalies possibly be that SHSU is ranked too low or does not that not fit into the narrative spun around here?

NDSU beats Iowa even though Sagarin says different = statistical anomaly
EWU beats Wash St. even though Sagarin says different = statistical anomaly
Northern Iowa is ranked 3rd in Sagarin = statistical anomaly

then its….

SHSU is overrated in all the polls, just look at their Sagarin rating!!!!!

[CappinHard]

If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.

As the great Ric Flair said...

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/56/f9/28/56f928b8db993ab764917224e3efbdee.jpg

[Professor Chaos]

Sagarin has them as the third best team in the FCS.

A 4-5 team. As number 3. Give me a break.



So it's because the MVFC is so strong? Then why is YSU ranked 20 spots below them when YSU beat them?
Part of it is because despite being 4-5 they have the top point differential in the conference. Sagarin doesn't value wins and losses so much as he does underperforming and overperforming based on his model. For instance, if his model says Team A should beat Team B by 5 and beat Team C by 30 then Team A losing to Team B by 3 is actually a more favorable result in his model for Team A than if they beat Team C by 14.

Hopefully I didn't totally butcher the understandability of that example. xdizzyx


EDIT: Nm with my example, bootfitter already explained it in much greater detail. But my main point is UNI is +97 in point differential in MVFC play and +92 overall. They've played a really tough schedule and that's basically why Sagarin's model still thinks so highly of them.

[PantherRob82]

Long-time reader, first-time poster. NOTE: This post might slip to a different spot in the thread due to requiring approval, so please consider this when reading.

I am an NDSU and UND fan (I know, its complicated).

However, I would like to comment on UNI, since the discussion has gotten a bit off the playoff rankings track. I would like to point out the following:

1. Beat Iowa State (at Iowa State; low FBS, but still FBS).
2. Lost to USD (by 4 at USD - which beat ISUr BTW).
3. Lost to YSU (lead 10-0, but gave up two late scores to lose 10-14; ISUr also lost to YSU).
4. Blew the doors off SIU, MiSU, and ISUb (which they should have).
5. Lost to NDSU, UM, and EWU, each by less than one score, and one on a trick play (EWU) - Please ask any of those fans of those teams what kind of team UNI is.

I am not a fan of UNI, and I am not saying they are third in the FCS. However, they are hard-nosed SOBs that would stack up in any conference.

BTW: ElCid, excellent job on the SOS schedules (I like looking at the actual data as well).

Great first post, except being a fan of UND AND NDSU. That should be illegal. xlolx

[beerkat]

Part of it is because despite being 4-5 they have the top point differential in the conference. Sagarin doesn't value wins and losses so much as he does underperforming and overperforming based on his model. For instance, if his model says Team A should beat Team B by 5 and beat Team C by 30 then Team A losing to Team B by 3 is actually a more favorable result in his model for Team A than if they beat Team C by 14.

Hopefully I didn't totally butcher the understandability of that example. xdizzyx


EDIT: Nm with my example, bootfitter already explained it in much greater detail. But my main point is UNI is +97 in point differential in MVFC play and +92 overall. They've played a really tough schedule and that's basically why Sagarin's model still thinks so highly of them.


If you agree that point differential affects Sagarin rating then would you agree that by SHSU coasting in the second half it has significantly hurt their Sagarin rating?

+230 in the first half of games, + 13 in the second half of games

[Professor Chaos]

If you agree that point differential affects Sagarin rating then would you agree that by SHSU coasting in the second half it has significantly hurt their Sagarin rating?

+230 in the first half of games, + 13 in the second half of games
Yes, I'm going to be a broken record here and say that has more to do with the strength of the teams SHSU is playing. Sagarin rates Missouri St pretty equally with McNeese St (they'd be a toss-up playing on a neutral field according to his model). UNI beat Missouri St by 54 and SHSU beat McNeese by 13. That's a big difference and just one example of why Sagarin values UNI higher than SHSU.

But yes, SHSU coasting in the 2nd half hurts their Sagarin rating.

[thebootfitter]

Would one of those anomalies possibly be that SHSU is ranked too low or does not that not fit into the narrative spun around here?

NDSU beats Iowa even though Sagarin says different = statistical anomaly
EWU beats Wash St. even though Sagarin says different = statistical anomaly
Northern Iowa is ranked 3rd in Sagarin = statistical anomaly

then its….

SHSU is overrated in all the polls, just look at their Sagarin rating!!!!!
NDSU and EWU's wins weren't really "anomalies." I'd have to go back and look at the Sagarin ratings when those games were played, but considering a standard deviation of around two touchdowns, it would be considered "normal" or "not unexpected" for a team that is rated a few points lower to beat the higher rated team. The bigger the differential between expected score and observed score, the more anomalous it becomes. I suspect there was probably no more than a 10-14 point differential between those teams when the games were played. And neither NDSU nor EWU won by a huge margin.

UNI being 3rd in Sagarin is NOT a statistical anomaly at all. It is a function of how they have played over the course of the season and how much they have scored relative to their competition and how their competition has fared against other teams they've played.

I don't think you're getting it.

[beerkat]

Yes, I'm going to be a broken record here and say that has more to do with the strength of the teams SHSU is playing. Sagarin rates Missouri St pretty equally with McNeese St (they'd be a toss-up playing on a neutral field according to his model). UNI beat Missouri St by 54 and SHSU beat McNeese by 13. That's a big difference and just one example of why Sagarin values UNI higher than SHSU.

But yes, SHSU coasting in the 2nd half hurts their Sagarin rating.

If our Sagarin rating is lower due to margin of victory, then our opponents Sagarin rating is also lower because SHSU is lower, and our opponents would actually be rated higher if we would have beat them by more?

xcrazyx

[thebootfitter]

If our Sagarin rating is lower due to margin of victory, then our opponents Sagarin rating is also lower because SHSU is lower, and our opponents would actually be rated higher if we would have beat them by more?

xcrazyx
Again... I don't think you're getting it.

[clenz]

I'm long on record of this is a broken UNI team and isn't a playoff team.

HOWEVER, the broken part of the team is the inept offense and we are just 3 total TDs from not having any losses.

I wouldn't vote UNI because of the inability to win close games. However, it's pretty clear why a computer system would rank UNI highly

[beerkat]

NDSU and EWU's wins weren't really "anomalies." I'd have to go back and look at the Sagarin ratings when those games were played, but considering a standard deviation of around two touchdowns, it would be considered "normal" or "not unexpected" for a team that is rated a few points lower to beat the higher rated team. The bigger the differential between expected score and observed score, the more anomalous it becomes. I suspect there was probably no more than a 10-14 point differential between those teams when the games were played. And neither NDSU nor EWU won by a huge margin.

UNI being 3rd in Sagarin is NOT a statistical anomaly at all. It is a function of how they have played over the course of the season and how much they have scored relative to their competition and how their competition has fared against other teams they've played.

I don't think you're getting it.

No, I get it. The only point I’m trying to make is that people use Sagarin when it fits their argument that SHSU or whoever is/was overrated and ignore it when the same logic is applied to other teams.

[JSUSoutherner]

So let me see if I got this:

UNI is ranked highly by Sagarin because their schedule is difficult, their losses were by slim margins, and they blew out Missouri State and ISUb and it's basically just a model of point differentials and SOS?

[thebootfitter]

No, I get it. The only point I’m trying to make is that people use Sagarin when it fits their argument that SHSU or whoever is/was overrated and ignore it when the same logic is applied to other teams.
What other team(s) are you referring to where the logic is ignored?

(I still don't think you're getting it.)

[thebootfitter]

If our Sagarin rating is lower due to margin of victory, then our opponents Sagarin rating is also lower because SHSU is lower, and our opponents would actually be rated higher if we would have beat them by more?

If SHSU would have beaten other teams by more points, then Sam's rating would be higher than it is currently (assuming all other things are equal). Their opponents' rating would be lower than it is currently.

[milleniumkat]

The committee be like...
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161111/60f2b4ffb3af78a39c62ef259614dec5.jpg


"You Can't run with #81!"

[beerkat]

What other team(s) are you referring to where the logic is ignored?

(I still don't think you're getting it.)

SHSU gets punished for its strength of schedule by being ranked #5, but JSU doesn't get punished and is ranked #1.

[Professor Chaos]

So let me see if I got this:

UNI is ranked highly by Sagarin because their schedule is difficult, their losses were by slim margins, and they blew out Missouri State and ISUb and it's basically just a model of point differentials and SOS?
That's pretty much it.

[JSUSoutherner]

The committee be like...
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20161111/60f2b4ffb3af78a39c62ef259614dec5.jpg


"You Can't run with #81!"
Someone's salty.

[thebootfitter]

SHSU gets punished for its strength of schedule by being ranked #5, but JSU doesn't get punished and is ranked #1.
I don't think anyone here is ignoring that. The committee might be, but who knows what their process is. Might be fun guessing, but they're likely to surprise us no matter what we predict.

On here, I think most folks are saying that Sam at #1 or #2 cannot be justified based on any reasonable metric, including strength of schedule. There's a huge difference in strength of schedule between NDSU or EWU and Sam, and it's not even close. Sam got the brunt of pushback here because of the huge disparity.

The disparity still exists for JSU, but it isn't as great as it was for Sam. If you look around, you will see plenty of folks indicating that JSU doesn't belong in that #1 slot either. Including most JSU fans.

[Professor Chaos]

If our Sagarin rating is lower due to margin of victory, then our opponents Sagarin rating is also lower because SHSU is lower, and our opponents would actually be rated higher if we would have beat them by more?

xcrazyx


Again... I don't think you're getting it.
There's some truth to his statement I think. But one game being 14-21 points different in margin wouldn't do much at this stage in the season. It's moreso a cumulative affect of what Sam Houston opponents have done in games they played against other teams that hurts their ranking and, by proxy, SHSU's ranking.

[JSUSoutherner]

I don't think anyone here is ignoring that. The committee might be, but who knows what their process is. Might be fun guessing, but they're likely to surprise us no matter what we predict.

On here, I think most folks are saying that Sam at #1 or #2 cannot be justified based on any reasonable metric, including strength of schedule. There's a huge difference in strength of schedule between NDSU or EWU and Sam, and it's not even close. Sam got the brunt of pushback here because of the huge disparity.

The disparity still exists for JSU, but it isn't as great as it was for Sam. If you look around, you will see plenty of folks indicating that JSU doesn't belong in that #1 slot either. Including most JSU fans.
This.

[thebootfitter]

So let me see if I got this:

UNI is ranked highly by Sagarin because their schedule is difficult, their losses were by slim margins, and they blew out Missouri State and ISUb and it's basically just a model of point differentials and SOS?
Not quite. SoS is simply a function of the results of the model. Not an input into the model.

It really comes down to how a team performs against expectations in the model. So if you play only teams that are very highly rated in the model, and you play them close but still lose, you'd end up with a similar rating as those teams you played, just a little lower. If you end up beating them by a lot consistently, then you'd end up with a higher rating than them.

[Daytripper]

I don't think there is a lot of difference between the top 8-10 this year. No matter how they are shuffled I think a top 4 seed will lose in the second round. So, even if a team doesn't start with home field throughout, they may end up with it anyway.

[JSUSoutherner]

Not quite. SoS is simply a function of the results of the model. Not an input into the model.

It really comes down to how a team performs against expectations in the model. So if you play only teams that are very highly rated in the model, and you play them close but still lose, you'd end up with a similar rating as those teams you played, just a little lower. If you end up beating them by a lot consistently, then you'd end up with a higher rating than them.
So where does the model get its initial projections and expectations for each team?

[FargoBison]

SHSU gets punished for its strength of schedule by being ranked #5, but JSU doesn't get punished and is ranked #1.

Well the OVC does have double representation....

[ElCid]

I'm long on record of this is a broken UNI team and isn't a playoff team.

HOWEVER, the broken part of the team is the inept offense and we are just 3 total TDs from not having any losses.

I wouldn't vote UNI because of the inability to win close games. However, it's pretty clear why a computer system would rank UNI highly

Maybe 21 points but 5 TD actually.:D We need to get your AD a brochure of the Pioneer league.


For the other folks comments regarding UNI...

There is no way that the computers are off. UNI had a good schedule and they played very well even in their losses. They may be "rated" high in the computers, but it is simply a way to measure their performance against other teams. If they went 0-11 and lost every game by 1 point, they might still be just as high in the computers and obviously not be in contention for a playoff spot. For those that think they are too high, you are not looking at the computer ratings for what they are, simply a tool. They should not necessarily be used as the sole method for "ranking" teams.

[thebootfitter]

Well the OVC does have double representation....
Have to admit... When I first glanced at this, I read "double penetration." xangelx xembarrassedx

[JSUSoutherner]

Have to admit... When I first glanced at this, I read "double penetration." xangelx xembarrassedx
Go Cocks?

[thebootfitter]

So where does the model get its initial projections and expectations for each team?
No one knows the specifics, as all of that stuff is considered "trade secrets." But generally speaking, my understanding is that the initial rating for most computer models is based off a weighted average from that last several years. For example, maybe last year's final rating for a team is 50% of the starting value for this year; the year before counts for 30%; the year before that is 15%; and so on.

Then as the new data is plugged in for the new season, the initial ratings are phased out such that last year has no impact and only games from the current season count toward the current ratings. If a team is significantly over- or under-performing in the current season compared to initial expectations, that will quickly be sorted out once there is enough data from the current season to remove bias from previous seasons.

[milleniumkat]

No one knows the specifics, as all of that stuff is considered "trade secrets." But generally speaking, my understanding is that the initial rating for most computer models is based off a weighted average from that last several years. For example, maybe last year's final rating for a team is 50% of the starting value for this year; the year before counts for 30%; the year before that is 15%; and so on.

Then as the new data is plugged in for the new season, the initial ratings are phased out such that last year has no impact and only games from the current season count toward the current ratings. If a team is significantly over- or under-performing in the current season compared to initial expectations, that will quickly be sorted out once there is enough data from the current season to remove bias from previous seasons.

So what teams are under/over performing based on expectations?

[ElCid]

So what teams are under/over performing based on expectations?

It changes every week based on performance. For Massey, you can simply go to the teams page and click on the result "w" or "L" and see what the predicted score was and just compare to the actual.

[Professor Chaos]

It changes every week based on performance. For Massey, you can simply go to the teams page and click on the result "w" or "L" and see what the predicted score was and just compare to the actual.
I think just this week or last Sagarin started putting score predictions for each game of the current week at the top of his page. You could always figure those out easily enough on your own but it's nice to have a place to look it up and see what his model predicts.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

He expects SHSU to beat NWSU 51-25 Bearkat fans... so tell Keeler not to pull your starters too early. :p

Also of note he predicted Penn to beat Harvard 25-23 tonight. So although he correctly predicted the winner Penn over-performed and Harvard under-performed according to his model.

[Mayville Bison]

Great first post, except being a fan of UND AND NDSU. That should be illegal. xlolx

Yeah I can't figure that out either unless it's one of those "I cheer for anything North Dakota" fans which drives me nuts.

If people think NDSU fans are obnoxious, and UND fans are obnoxious, can you imagine combining the two?!?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Preferred Walk-On]

NDSU's SOS just went up (see Iowa over Michigan).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FargoBison]

The committee is a complete joke with JSU at #1....#4-6 is where they belong.

[Hammersmith]

I think just this week or last Sagarin started putting score predictions for each game of the current week at the top of his page. You could always figure those out easily enough on your own but it's nice to have a place to look it up and see what his model predicts.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

He expects SHSU to beat NWSU 51-25 Bearkat fans... so tell Keeler not to pull your starters too early. :p

Also of note he predicted Penn to beat Harvard 25-23 tonight. So although he correctly predicted the winner Penn over-performed and Harvard under-performed according to his model.

He's been doing it all season; it was just at the bottom of the page prior to this week. I guess somebody clued him in that no one ever looked down that far.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Yeah I can't figure that out either unless it's one of those "I cheer for anything North Dakota" fans which drives me nuts.

If people think NDSU fans are obnoxious, and UND fans are obnoxious, can you imagine combining the two?!?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sorry to drive you nuts. Lifelong fan of one school, work at one school, went to the other school. I am obnoxious personified. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Twentysix]

Iowa beats #3 Michigan. NDSU to #1 seed.

[thebootfitter]

Iowa beats #3 Michigan. NDSU to #1 seed.
Don't bet on it just yet. Again, not saying I agree with it, but I doubt that Iowa win this late in the season will carry much weight with the committee.

[Catatonic]

Please consider this a defense of the Southland rather than a criticism of the Big Sky.

Credit where credit is due. Eastern Washington gets a lot well deserved credit for its win over Wazzu. A lot. It's one loss was to another FCS championship calibre team in a game that could have gone either way. Those are huge positives. Doubtless they have earned respect and are one of the elite programs in the country. The BIG Sky is tough. There are probably four Big Sky teams in my Top 25 each week, sometimes more.

I'm more concerned about the lack of respect for the Southland than the strength of the Big Sky. I'm of the opinion that while SOS is an important consideration, judging any school or conference on the basis of SOS alone may leave a distorted image of a school's actual actual strength. At least based on our experience.

We (Abilene Christian) are one of the reasons Sam's SOS looks bad. We suck. Our defense sucks. Our offense doesn't suck as bad as our defense but it isn't good either. Special teams? Well, we have a very good FG guy. We have only won two games all year. In most games we lost, we have been dominated. The only games we shoulda,coulda won were Houston Baptist (it still hurts to say we lost to them), and an OOC game vs Northern Colorado.

The Northern Colorado game was a last team with the ball wins track meet. They had the ball last and won out, 55-52. Their offense cut through our sucky defense like butter. Our mediocre at best offense scored on them at will.

How does all this relate to SAM, The Southland, Big Sky and Eastern Washington? Glad you asked.

Turns out Northern Colorado is a solid, upper half of Big Sky kind of team that knocked off ranked Montana yesterday to improve to 6-4 overall. I know there are limitations to this type of comparison, but I can't help but note that this team that our peedidlly offense scored on at will and maybe coulda/shoulda beaten has held the Big Sky'sn elite teams to fewer points than our lowly team put on the Bears. Eastern Washington, known for its prolific offense, scored 49 against Northern Colorado vs ACU's 52. The Fighting Hawks of North Dakota? 23 vs the 52 crumby old ACU scored.

Again, before UND and EWU fans jump to the defense of your team....I get that you are both very good teams. I ranked you both in my top ten this week. I put Eastern near the top. I'm just saying that from where I sit here near the bottom of the SLC looking up to the mountaintop, kicking Sam off the summit based on SOS alone isn't justified at least as long as they keep winning and beating the spread (read:exceeding expectations) each week.

My next chapter (my apologies for rambling on) about the fallacy of over weighting SOS will be based on Nicholls State, a middle of the pack team in the SLC, going toe-to-toe between the hedges in Athens, GA, the same field where the Bulldogs knocked off 9th ranked Auburn yesterday. That same Nicholls team that Sam took down38-Nicholls 21, lost to mighty Geogia 26-24.

Maybe the SLC isn't quite the weak sister the Stats would indicate. And maybe, just maybe, Sam is a little better than many believe.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Iowa beats #3 Michigan. NDSU to #1 seed.



Should send an email to every blind duck on that committee saying Michigan could not win in Iowa City but NDSU did.

JSU #1 is a joke!

[milleniumkat]

Please consider this a defense of the Southland rather than a criticism of the Big Sky.

Credit where credit is due. Eastern Washington gets a lot well deserved credit for its win over Wazzu. A lot. It's one loss was to another FCS championship calibre team in a game that could have gone either way. Those are huge positives. Doubtless they have earned respect and are one of the elite programs in the country. The BIG Sky is tough. There are probably four Big Sky teams in my Top 25 each week, sometimes more.

I'm more concerned about the lack of respect for the Southland than the strength of the Big Sky. I'm of the opinion that while SOS is an important consideration, judging any school or conference on the basis of SOS alone may leave a distorted image of a school's actual actual strength. At least based on our experience.

We (Abilene Christian) are one of the reasons Sam's SOS looks bad. We suck. Our defense sucks. Our offense doesn't suck as bad as our defense but it isn't good either. Special teams? Well, we have a very good FG guy. We have only won two games all year. In most games we lost, we have been dominated. The only games we shoulda,coulda won were Houston Baptist (it still hurts to say we lost to them), and an OOC game vs Northern Colorado.

The Northern Colorado game was a last team with the ball wins track meet. They had the ball last and won out, 55-52. Their offense cut through our sucky defense like butter. Our mediocre at best offense scored on them at will.

How does all this relate to SAM, The Southland, Big Sky and Eastern Washington? Glad you asked.

Turns out Northern Colorado is a solid, upper half of Big Sky kind of team that knocked off ranked Montana yesterday to improve to 6-4 overall. I know there are limitations to this type of comparison, but I can't help but note that this team that our peedidlly offense scored on at will and maybe coulda/shoulda beaten has held the Big Sky'sn elite teams to fewer points than our lowly team put on the Bears. Eastern Washington, known for its prolific offense, scored 49 against Northern Colorado vs ACU's 52. The Fighting Hawks of North Dakota? 23 vs the 52 crumby old ACU scored.

Again, before UND and EWU fans jump to the defense of your team....I get that you are both very good teams. I ranked you both in my top ten this week. I put Eastern near the top. I'm just saying that from where I sit here near the bottom of the SLC looking up to the mountaintop, kicking Sam off the summit based on SOS alone isn't justified at least as long as they keep winning and beating the spread (read:exceeding expectations) each week.

My next chapter (my apologies for rambling on) about the fallacy of over weighting SOS will be based on Nicholls State, a middle of the pack team in the SLC, going toe-to-toe between the hedges in Athens, GA, the same field where the Bulldogs knocked off 9th ranked Auburn yesterday. That same Nicholls team that Sam took down38-Nicholls 21, lost to mighty Geogia 26-24.

Maybe the SLC isn't quite the weak sister the Stats would indicate. And maybe, just maybe, Sam is a little better than many believe.

College game day spoke in detail yesterday's about how Wazzzu played terribly early in the year but made some changes and are now playing at a higher level. The implication was that EWU's win was over an underperforming WSU rather than the one that is playing well now. They got off to a slow start.

If those two played again, Washington State would crush EWU. They got lucky by catching them during a transition time. Just like JSU caught LSU at a bad time.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

The water heads in this site don't recognize that team dynamics change from week to week based on a multitude of factors. They are simplistic by nature. It's the only way they can keep up. Otherwise they only have comic books to keep them busy.

They think if Team A beats Team B in week 1, then that means that Team A would always beat Team B. Because they don't understand chemistry, matchups, personnel changes, injuries, experience gained etc. don't waste your time.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[kalm]

College game day spoke in detail yesterday's about how Wazzzu played terribly early in the year but made some changes and are now playing at a higher level. The implication was that EWU's win was over an underperforming WSU rather than the one that is playing well now. They got off to a slow start.

If those two played again, Washington State would crush EWU. They got lucky by catching them during a transition time. Just like JSU caught LSU at a bad time.


"You Can't run with #81!"

And our defense is playing WAY better now than it was at the beginning of the season. We'd probably hold them to under 30 and win by two scores or more. We get to use that argument as well, right?

[milleniumkat]

And our defense is playing WAY better now than it was at the beginning of the season. We'd probably hold them to under 30 and win by two scores or more. We get to use that argument as well, right?

Nah. You'd lose by 3-4 scores. easily.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[TheKingpin28]

Nah. You'd lose by 3-4 scores. easily.


"You Can't run with #81!"

If SHSU plays EWU, SHSU will get destroyed. It is not possible to fully contain Gubrud, Hill, and Kupp. I'm serious when I say, you will not want to face them. If their defense even shows up remotely, this is a track meet that you will lose. Being at the Inferno (worst field colour ever), in the winter when it is cold out, your "Southern Speed" will be hampered severly.

[Katfan]

If SHSU plays EWU, SHSU will get destroyed. It is not possible to fully contain Gubrud, Hill, and Kupp. I'm serious when I say, you will not want to face them. If their defense even shows up remotely, this is a track meet that you will lose. Being at the Inferno (worst field colour ever), in the winter when it is cold out, your "Southern Speed" will be hampered severly.
Maybe but the last 2 times we played up there in the playoffs, we did ok.

[TheKingpin28]

Maybe but the last 2 times we played up there in the playoffs, we did ok.

While that is true, teams evolve and gain and lose personnel each year. Having seen EWU play, if there is 1 team in the playoffs I do not want to see, it is them. They are hands down the best team in the nation right now. If NDSU could be a complete team, I would not be worried, but with the injuries and lack on consistency, I can honestly say that in order of "Power Rankings" I would say

#1 EWU
#2-4 NDSU/El Cid/JMU
#5-6 SHSU/JSU
#7-10 UR/UCA/UND/SDSU

Again, that is just me, but I feel like there are currently 4 distinct tiers, some would argue 3 with it being 1-2, 3-6, 7-10, but there is for sure more parity this year than in years past.

[kalm]

Nah. You'd lose by 3-4 scores. easily.


"You Can't run with #81!"

That's what should have happened back in September. They were coming off of their most embarassing loss ever to FCS PSU last season, and had watched us play tight games against the PAC 12 the last 3 years. We didn't sneak up on them...we just have a better offense, Gubrud was lights out, and our D made more plays. Our D is much improved since then and so is theirs so I'd give them a punchers chance against us.

[Preferred Walk-On]

1. Jax St
2. EWU
3. NDSU
4. JMU
5. SHSU
6. The Citadel
7. Chattanooga
8. Richmond
9. UCA
10. UND


Really enjoying the discussion; however, I would like to go conspiracy theorist on you guys, just for a bit.

I believe that the factors playing into the Committee Rankings have little to do with SOS and more to do with SO$.

If one looks at attendance potential (i.e., butts in seats, $/game; please forgive any major inaccuracies as these are rounded and are "Internet accurate"), I think the rankings make almost perfect sense.

1. Jax St - ~24K
2. EWU - ~8K
3. NDSU - ~18K
4. JMU - ~25K
5. SHSU - ~14K
6. The Citadel - ~21K
7. Chattanooga - ~21K
8. Richmond - ~9K
9. UCA - ~9K
10. UND - ~12K

Quite simply, there are a couple of things of note:

1. Seeds 1, 4, 5, and 8 would be in the same bracket, and if the seeds win as projected, this would mean the following:
Second round = 72K (24K, 25K, 14K, and 9K)
Quarterfinals = 49K (24K and 25K)
Semifinals = 24K
Total = 145K



2. Seeds 2, 3, 6, and 7 would be in the same bracket, and if the seeds win as projected, this would mean the following:
Second round = 68K (8K, 18K, 21K, and 21K)
Quarterfinals = 26K (8K and 18K)
Semifinals = 8K
Total = 102K


3. By lumping EWU and NDSU together (as seeds 2 and 3) and lumping JSU and JMU together (at seeds 1 and 4), one preserves pretty decent regionalization (potentially saving $ on travel).

4. By placing SHSU outside the top 4 seeds, the third lowest attendance potential team (SHSU) has the opportunity to knock out the second lowest attendance potential team (Richmond).

5. By placing The Citadel and Chattanooga at seeds 6 and 7, one also preserves regionalization, along with the possibility for an additional playoff game at a 21K stadium (if the 5 seed does not hold up).

Simply put, I believe that JSU has the top spot, not necessarily on SOS, but on the fact that they have a very good football program with major revenue potential (Oh, and I hear they have a kick-ass band). Although EWU is not necessarily favorable in this regard, they are just too damn good to leave out of the top 2-3 (although switching them and NDSU would lead to ~10K more butts in seats for the semifinal; however, maybe they like the red turf). SHSU is a product of lower attendance potential, and the Committee will likely use SOS (even though it has some to do with SO$) to support this seeding.

NOTE: I know Chatty took a hit and is likely out, so I could see a UND or SDSU (~19K) to replace them (and their seed), keeping maximal attendance potential in play. We shall see.

[caribbeanhen]

Sammy is a serious contender..... talent! Despite having a D that hasn't been tested by a good team yet....

[Preferred Walk-On]

Really enjoying the discussion; however, I would like to go conspiracy theorist on you guys, just for a bit.

I believe that the factors playing into the Committee Rankings have little to do with SOS and more to do with SO$.

If one looks at attendance potential (i.e., butts in seats, $/game; please forgive any major inaccuracies as these are rounded and are "Internet accurate"), I think the rankings make almost perfect sense.

1. Jax St - ~24K
2. EWU - ~8K
3. NDSU - ~18K
4. JMU - ~25K
5. SHSU - ~14K
6. The Citadel - ~21K
7. Chattanooga - ~21K
8. Richmond - ~9K
9. UCA - ~9K
10. UND - ~12K

Quite simply, there are a couple of things of note:

1. Seeds 1, 4, 5, and 8 would be in the same bracket, and if the seeds win as projected, this would mean the following:
Second round = 72K (24K, 25K, 14K, and 9K)
Quarterfinals = 49K (24K and 25K)
Semifinals = 24K
Total = 145K



2. Seeds 2, 3, 6, and 7 would be in the same bracket, and if the seeds win as projected, this would mean the following:
Second round = 68K (8K, 18K, 21K, and 21K)
Quarterfinals = 26K (8K and 18K)
Semifinals = 8K
Total = 102K


3. By lumping EWU and NDSU together (as seeds 2 and 3) and lumping JSU and JMU together (at seeds 1 and 4), one preserves pretty decent regionalization (potentially saving $ on travel).

4. By placing SHSU outside the top 4 seeds, the third lowest attendance potential team (SHSU) has the opportunity to knock out the second lowest attendance potential team (Richmond).

5. By placing The Citadel and Chattanooga at seeds 6 and 7, one also preserves regionalization, along with the possibility for an additional playoff game at a 21K stadium (if the 5 seed does not hold up).

Simply put, I believe that JSU has the top spot, not necessarily on SOS, but on the fact that they have a very good football program with major revenue potential (Oh, and I hear they have a kick-ass band). Although EWU is not necessarily favorable in this regard, they are just too damn good to leave out of the top 2-3 (although switching them and NDSU would lead to ~10K more butts in seats for the semifinal; however, maybe they like the red turf). SHSU is a product of lower attendance potential, and the Committee will likely use SOS (even though it has some to do with SO$) to support this seeding.

NOTE: I know Chatty took a hit and is likely out, so I could see a UND or SDSU (~19K) to replace them (and their seed), keeping maximal attendance potential in play. We shall see.

Forgot to mention that the Committee would need to keep EWU and NDSU together as 2 and 3 seeds or as 1 and 4 seeds (to keep regionalization). In this case, it is much more difficult to justify EWU or NDSU as a 4 seed, hence the 2 and 3 seeds.

[Red & Black]

College game day spoke in detail yesterday's about how Wazzzu played terribly early in the year but made some changes and are now playing at a higher level. The implication was that EWU's win was over an underperforming WSU rather than the one that is playing well now. They got off to a slow start.

If those two played again, Washington State would crush EWU. They got lucky by catching them during a transition time. Just like JSU caught LSU at a bad time.

"You Can't run with #81!"

Not sure how this is different than any other time an FCS knocks off a good FBS team at the beginning of the year. Besides, ESPN, et al will always display a heavy bias against the FCS. Any time we beat one of the big boys, it's a "fluke."

If we played today, WSU would probably beat us, but that's to be expected in an FBS/FCS matchup late in the season when the disparity in scholarships is more noticeable due to attrition. At the beginning of the season, when injuries are not as much of an issue, there's a much better opportunity for a good FCS team to grab the W. Anyway, it doesn't really matter if we played now. WSU already had the opportunity to play that game, and we beat them. We were the better team on that day.

EWU has beaten two Pac-12 teams in the past 4 years that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at one point in the season. There's a lot to be said for the talent on those EWU teams, but in both instances we out-coached the opposition. Riley and Leach were both outcoached by Badwin.

When the the last time SHSU beat a P5 team?

[milleniumkat]

If SHSU plays EWU, SHSU will get destroyed. It is not possible to fully contain Gubrud, Hill, and Kupp. I'm serious when I say, you will not want to face them. If their defense even shows up remotely, this is a track meet that you will lose. Being at the Inferno (worst field colour ever), in the winter when it is cold out, your "Southern Speed" will be hampered severly.

No way. We came up there in 2012 and faced All universe Kyle Padron in the snow and he wet the bed. This will be more of the same. We can run the ball, EWU will fold in bad weather...i've seen it before. In 2013 rain fell in Huntsville and Adams peed down his leg.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[JSUSoutherner]

When the the last time SHSU beat a P5 team?
Unless I missed something on CFBdatawarehouse, they have never beat a P5 team.

[Red & Black]

No way. We came up there in 2012 and faced All universe Kyle Padron in the snow and he wet the bed. This will be more of the same. We can run the ball, EWU will fold in bad weather...i've seen it before. In 2013 rain fell in Huntsville and Adams peed down his leg.


"You Can't run with #81!"

He did ok in 2014.

[milleniumkat]

He did ok in 2014.

Sure did. At home in the sunshine against a QB starting his second ever game.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[NDSUtk]

Sure did. At home in the sunshine against a QB starting his second ever game.


"You Can't run with #81!"

So what's Sam Houston's excuse in Frisco? The weather was good both times there you got your asses beat. How about in Fargo? The Dome weather too perfect for you guys as you got boat raced? I mean, that southern speed inside on the track like that, I expected you guys to put up at least 50+ points. I mean, you were averaging over 35 points a game, and that was with zero against LSU. But yet you walked away with 3.

[Daytripper]

So what's Sam Houston's excuse in Frisco? The weather was good both times there you got your asses beat. How about in Fargo? The Dome weather too perfect for you guys as you got boat raced? I mean, that southern speed inside on the track like that, I expected you guys to put up at least 50+ points. I mean, you were averaging over 35 points a game, and that was with zero against LSU. But yet you walked away with 3.

We got beat by a better team in Frisco. But we were better than every other team in FCS except NDSU. Has your ego been stroked enough? Pandering for compliment is lame.

[NDSUtk]

We got beat by a better team in Frisco. But we were better than every other team in FCS except NDSU. Has your ego been stroked enough? Pandering for compliment is lame.
Not looking for compliments at all. I know I'm fortunate to be a fan of this dynasty.

However if MK wants to act like EWU sucks, I may as well jump in and have a little fun with the kitty.

[CappinHard]

But we were better than every other team in FCS except NDSU.

Yeah, idk about that. You're making a pretty grave assumption there. I feel like you're overlooking the team that had them on the ropes up in Fargo in the 1st round of the playoffs and lost by 3 instead of 32. This is the problem with a lot of SHSU fans, they like to think their **** doesn't stink. SHSU should really move to a better conference... All of those cupcakes and perceived success from racking up easy wins are clouding your judgement.

[dudeitsaid]

Please consider this a defense of the Southland rather than a criticism of the Big Sky.

Credit where credit is due. Eastern Washington gets a lot well deserved credit for its win over Wazzu. A lot. It's one loss was to another FCS championship calibre team in a game that could have gone either way. Those are huge positives. Doubtless they have earned respect and are one of the elite programs in the country. The BIG Sky is tough. There are probably four Big Sky teams in my Top 25 each week, sometimes more.

I'm more concerned about the lack of respect for the Southland than the strength of the Big Sky. I'm of the opinion that while SOS is an important consideration, judging any school or conference on the basis of SOS alone may leave a distorted image of a school's actual actual strength. At least based on our experience.

We (Abilene Christian) are one of the reasons Sam's SOS looks bad. We suck. Our defense sucks. Our offense doesn't suck as bad as our defense but it isn't good either. Special teams? Well, we have a very good FG guy. We have only won two games all year. In most games we lost, we have been dominated. The only games we shoulda,coulda won were Houston Baptist (it still hurts to say we lost to them), and an OOC game vs Northern Colorado.

The Northern Colorado game was a last team with the ball wins track meet. They had the ball last and won out, 55-52. Their offense cut through our sucky defense like butter. Our mediocre at best offense scored on them at will.

How does all this relate to SAM, The Southland, Big Sky and Eastern Washington? Glad you asked.

Turns out Northern Colorado is a solid, upper half of Big Sky kind of team that knocked off ranked Montana yesterday to improve to 6-4 overall. I know there are limitations to this type of comparison, but I can't help but note that this team that our peedidlly offense scored on at will and maybe coulda/shoulda beaten has held the Big Sky'sn elite teams to fewer points than our lowly team put on the Bears. Eastern Washington, known for its prolific offense, scored 49 against Northern Colorado vs ACU's 52. The Fighting Hawks of North Dakota? 23 vs the 52 crumby old ACU scored.

Again, before UND and EWU fans jump to the defense of your team....I get that you are both very good teams. I ranked you both in my top ten this week. I put Eastern near the top. I'm just saying that from where I sit here near the bottom of the SLC looking up to the mountaintop, kicking Sam off the summit based on SOS alone isn't justified at least as long as they keep winning and beating the spread (read:exceeding expectations) each week.

My next chapter (my apologies for rambling on) about the fallacy of over weighting SOS will be based on Nicholls State, a middle of the pack team in the SLC, going toe-to-toe between the hedges in Athens, GA, the same field where the Bulldogs knocked off 9th ranked Auburn yesterday. That same Nicholls team that Sam took down38-Nicholls 21, lost to mighty Geogia 26-24.

Maybe the SLC isn't quite the weak sister the Stats would indicate. And maybe, just maybe, Sam is a little better than many believe.

I think the "maybe" is the key. I think you did a good job with your post. And SHSU is potentially the best team in the country. However, the key issue is not about what a team might be. It's about what teams have actually done this year on the field against what level of competition. At this point, based on numerous various metrics that have been submitted on multiple threads over the last few weeks, there are other teams that have better resumes. Those teams should be rewarded on what they've done.

That being said, I have no doubt SHSU will do tremendously well in the playoffs. Keeler knows how to win playoff games, so, you're "maybe" might just become an actuality.

[Cocky]

If SHSU plays EWU, SHSU will get destroyed. It is not possible to fully contain Gubrud, Hill, and Kupp. I'm serious when I say, you will not want to face them. If their defense even shows up remotely, this is a track meet that you will lose. Being at the Inferno (worst field colour ever), in the winter when it is cold out, your "Southern Speed" will be hampered severly.

EWU would not blow Sammy out. Might EWU win yes but the probability of a blowout by either is slim.

[Daytripper]

EWU would not blow Sammy out. Might EWU win yes but the probability of a blowout by either is slim.

But the Kingpin said so......xdontknowx

[Professor Chaos]

Just an FYI that the selection committee rankings are being released early this week. They'll be out sometime tomorrow but I haven't heard exactly when or where they'll be announced.

[TheKingpin28]

EWU would not blow Sammy out. Might EWU win yes but the probability of a blowout by either is slim.

But the Kingpin said so......xdontknowx

If this match-up happens, just wait and see.

[F'N Hawks]

EWU would not blow Sammy out. Might EWU win yes but the probability of a blowout by either is slim.

Agree with that. Would be a shootout. 3-7 point game

[Cocky]

If this match-up happens, just wait and see.
With EWUs defensive track record how do see a blowout? For a blowout your defense has to shutdown the other team and EWU is a outscore you team.

[kalm]

With EWUs defensive track record how do see a blowout? For a blowout your defense has to shutdown the other team and EWU is a outscore you team.

I think it would be close too but in his defense we've allowe 17, 16, 21, and 17 in our last 4 including 2 ranked teams with top 5 offenses.

[Sammy94]

If this match-up happens, just wait and see.

Well they did almost beat NDSU so they must be better.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I know I'm probably really far behind and this may already be a dead horse, but what's the justification for EWU being ranked higher than NDSU again?

[TheKingpin28]

With EWUs defensive track record how do see a blowout? For a blowout your defense has to shutdown the other team and EWU is a outscore you team.

Their defense has finally turned a corner and is starting to resemble their 2010 team. That should scare anyone. If they can get a decent defense to show up each and every game, which I am starting to see, it is going to get ugly real fast. In the last 2 out of 3 weeks they have held the #6 team in total offense to 16 points and the #11 team to 21 points (UM and CP). To hold UM (#4 in Passing Offense) to about 6 yards per catch which is 1.2yds less than what they average is pretty impressive. Oh and then to go on the road the following week to CP (#2 Rushing Offense) and to hold them down to 3/13 on 3rd down defense? That means limiting Kori Garcia, the #10 rushing yards per attempt to 9 carries for 16 yards, which is about 5 yards less per attempt than what he is used to or 59 yards less. (1.8 VS 6.66). How about limiting arguably a top 5 RB in the FCS in Joe Protheroe to about a 1 yard less than what he is averaging? How about Kyle Lewis who is averaging about 65 yards per game and limiting him to about 20?

Again, I am not saying SHSU does not have a good offense, which they do, I am saying however that if the EWU defense shows up, which they are capable of, and does not play the joke defense of a 3-3-5 (hint look at how that has screwed NDSU 1x against SDSU and almost against EWU) and plays a stout 4-3 with safety help over the top, they can hold them in check as we know SHSUs defense is almost non-existent against similar competition. We will find out this week against a solid UCA team whether or not the offense is lights out, or just plays no one on defense. I believe the latter is the case and if EWU can have a decent defense, they are the lock down favorites to win the title this year.

[thebootfitter]

I know I'm probably really far behind and this may already be a dead horse, but what's the justification for EWU being ranked higher than NDSU again?
Could be many things, but for starters, some folks see a close overtime loss on the road in a difficult place to play, and feel that isn't enough to clearly distinguish the teams if they were to meet again. While NDSU is generally regarded to have a better schedule, EWU is generally regarded to have beaten a better P5 team. NDSU's loss is to a top 10-15 FCS team. EWU's loss was to the defending five-time champions who were ranked #1 at the time of the game. Both have solid resume's but EWU's loss is a "better" loss. Plus, EWU seems to be much more on a consistent roll and playing a bit better overall than NDSU, who has been struggling a bit on offense.

That's my guess as to how they are justifying it.

[thebootfitter]

College game day spoke in detail yesterday's about how Wazzzu played terribly early in the year but made some changes and are now playing at a higher level. The implication was that EWU's win was over an underperforming WSU rather than the one that is playing well now. They got off to a slow start.

If those two played again, Washington State would crush EWU. They got lucky by catching them during a transition time. Just like JSU caught LSU at a bad time.
Late to the party on this, but I wouldn't necessarily bet on that. I think Wazzu is more likely to win this time around, but I think their defense might still struggle to contain EWU's offense if they're firing on all cylinders.

[caribbeanhen]

EWU would not blow Sammy out. Might EWU win yes but the probability of a blowout by either is slim.

agree

[caribbeanhen]

We will find out this week against a solid UCA team whether or not the offense is lights out, or just plays no one on defense.

no one can disagree

[MacThor]

Forgot to mention that the Committee would need to keep EWU and NDSU together as 2 and 3 seeds or as 1 and 4 seeds (to keep regionalization). In this case, it is much more difficult to justify EWU or NDSU as a 4 seed, hence the 2 and 3 seeds.

They don't regionalize the top 4 seeds. The top 4 seeds have never held serve since expansion. What's the point?
Last year was a fluke with all the MVFC teams all in one half - it didn't happen in '12, '13, or '14. It was a side effect of the co-champs getting #2 and #3.

[thebootfitter]

They don't regionalize the top 4 seeds. The top 4 seeds have never held serve since expansion. What's the point?
Last year was a fluke with all the MVFC teams all in one half - it didn't happen in '12, '13, or '14. It was a side effect of the co-champs getting #2 and #3.
But, but, but... they only got #2 and #3 because there is a grand conspiracy against NDSU and the MVFC! Dontchyaknow??? ;)

[milleniumkat]

So what's Sam Houston's excuse in Frisco? The weather was good both times there you got your asses beat. How about in Fargo? The Dome weather too perfect for you guys as you got boat raced? I mean, that southern speed inside on the track like that, I expected you guys to put up at least 50+ points. I mean, you were averaging over 35 points a game, and that was with zero against LSU. But yet you walked away with 3.

Well, i was talking about EWU, Not NDSU. But if you must know..

2012 Natty- No excuse. Best team won.

2013 Natty - 10-10 Tie then our best defensive player and team leader tore ACL with 30 seconds left in first half. Team was never the same. But still, best team won.

2014 Semi - No excuse. Best team won.

Notice the respect i show for Bison?

Show some yourself. Or are you capable?


"You Can't run with #81!"

[milleniumkat]

I think the "maybe" is the key. I think you did a good job with your post. And SHSU is potentially the best team in the country. However, the key issue is not about what a team might be. It's about what teams have actually done this year on the field against what level of competition. At this point, based on numerous various metrics that have been submitted on multiple threads over the last few weeks, there are other teams that have better resumes. Those teams should be rewarded on what they've done.

That being said, I have no doubt SHSU will do tremendously well in the playoffs. Keeler knows how to win playoff games, so, you're "maybe" might just become an actuality.

That is the best post regarding shsu i've read by a non Kat. Thank you for being level headed and non-Dbag. You stated facts with an open mind. I respect you and apologize if i've disrespected you in previous posts. Sincerely.

[milleniumkat]

Not looking for compliments at all. I know I'm fortunate to be a fan of this dynasty.

However if MK wants to act like EWU sucks, I may as well jump in and have a little fun with the kitty.

When did i act like they sucked? I simply stated facts based on previous games with them. Has zero to do with this year. Lots of people on here like to refer back to past games to talk smack. So STFU

We've accomplished more than them in the last five years but you don't shell out 1/8 of the respect you show EWU. So again..STFU


"You Can't run with #81!"

[NDSUtk]

When did i act like they sucked? I simply stated facts based on previous games with them. Has zero to do with this year. Lots of people on here like to refer back to past games to talk smack. So STFU

We've accomplished more than them in the last five years but you don't shell out 1/8 of the respect you show EWU. So again..STFU


"You Can't run with #81!"
Really? You trying to tell people to be respectful is quite humorous.

And you only used facts? So he literally pissed himself huh? Didn't think so. That's how you talked about EWU, so just giving it right back to you. As you say...you SHSU are so easy to troll.

[JSUSoutherner]

#ButtNicholls

[MacThor]

When did i act like they sucked? I simply stated facts based on previous games with them. Has zero to do with this year. Lots of people on here like to refer back to past games to talk smack. So STFU

We've accomplished more than them in the last five years but you don't shell out 1/8 of the respect you show EWU. So again..STFU


"You Can't run with #81!"

Why do you keep bringing St. Francis into this? They are not in the committee's top 10.

[Preferred Walk-On]

They don't regionalize the top 4 seeds. The top 4 seeds have never held serve since expansion. What's the point?
Last year was a fluke with all the MVFC teams all in one half - it didn't happen in '12, '13, or '14. It was a side effect of the co-champs getting #2 and #3.

I am not disputing the first point you made. No regionalization of the top 4 seeds must be in the FCS Selection Committee's bylaws, right? I can't find those bylaws right now, but I will assume you are correct (or that you actually have or are currently sitting on the Committee and/or have first-hand knowledge of this) and that there is absolutely no way this would ever be considered...ever.

Since the top 4 seeds have never held serve, then why even pick them? I presume any committee ranks them with the idea that they are THE best and SHOULD win out (at least to the semifinals). Otherwise why bother? Well, home field matters, or nobody on this forum (or any other forum) would give a flying F#@$!

"What's the point?" Please see the last sentence to the paragraph above. The other point (from the original longer conspiracy theory post) was that right now, as the Committee's rankings sit, the major thing that could explain JSU #1 and SHSU #5 (and the #6 and #7 teams) for the seeds being the way they currently are is nearly maximized attendance potential (assuming the Committee also picked the seeds based on their ability to win games). It cannot be simply by SOS. Otherwise, there would not be such a commotion for/against JSU/SHSU being ranked too high/low.

Finally, not sure ALL MVFC teams on one side was a fluke; however, it does not matter to me at all. I simply would like to see my team have the possibility to play three home playoff games (as would anyone in this forum). This is why I would like to see my team with a #1 or #2 seed. Period. You still have to play who you are assigned to play and beat who you need to beat. That is the absolute BEAUTY of this tournament, and why we can sit here, submit hundreds of posts, and dissect the s#@$ out of it. This is supposed to be fun dogammit!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[flyrod]

It is fun! Im getting a good chuckle out all the bickering / tears going on about whose SOS is best who dont wanna be matched with who, why theirs is best.....etc........Great entertainment.
what we say here really doesnt matter to the final FCS pollsters and those who pick the seeds.
as said before the best part about all this is seeing it played out on the field among young men whom 96+/- % of them will move on to real jobs when their time is up and created memories and friendships for them for life and giving us the fans/supporters/alums the entertainment value that it is/has become.

[Preferred Walk-On]

It is fun! Im getting a good chuckle out all the bickering / tears going on about whose SOS is best who dont wanna be matched with who, why theirs is best.....etc........Great entertainment.
what we say here really doesnt matter to the final FCS pollsters and those who pick the seeds.
as said before the best part about all this is seeing it played out on the field among young men whom 96+/- % of them will move on to real jobs when their time is up and created memories and friendships for them for life and giving us the fans/supporters/alums the entertainment value that it is/has become.

Agreed. Passion with a touch of insanity. Love it.

[JSUSoutherner]

Didn't someone mention we would be getting the next set of rankings today? Or are we still going to have to wait until Thursday?

[Professor Chaos]

Didn't someone mention we would be getting the next set of rankings today? Or are we still going to have to wait until Thursday?
Tonight at 9PM CT on ESPNU. Something called College Football Overdrive I think is the show they're being announced during.

EDIT: "ESPN Championship Drive: Power Hour" is the name of it. I also see that there's Tuesday night #MACtion between Kent St and Bowling Green on before that so that probably means that game goes to triple OT and they just release the rankings via twitter. xrolleyesx

[JSUSoutherner]

Tonight at 9PM CT on ESPNU. Something called College Football Overdrive I think is the show they're being announced during.

EDIT: "ESPN Championship Drive: Power Hour" is the name of it. I also see that there's Tuesday night #MACtion between Kent St and Bowling Green on before that so that probably means that game goes to triple OT and they just release the rankings via twitter. xrolleyesx
Cool, thanks.

[Schism55]

Hearing the announcers say MACtion never gets less creepy.

[The Pud]

I wonder how JSU got ranked no. with their weak SOS?

[Bison56]

I wonder how JSU got ranked no. with their weak SOS?

If JSU is above 3 it is a joke.

[The Pud]

If JSU is above 3 it is a joke.


+9

[milleniumkat]

Really? You trying to tell people to be respectful is quite humorous.

And you only used facts? So he literally pissed himself huh? Didn't think so. That's how you talked about EWU, so just giving it right back to you. As you say...you SHSU are so easy to troll.

His pants were wet. So. You can't prove he didn't.


"You Can't run with #81!"

[JSUSoutherner]

Tonight at 9PM CT on ESPNU. Something called College Football Overdrive I think is the show they're being announced during.

EDIT: "ESPN Championship Drive: Power Hour" is the name of it. I also see that there's Tuesday night #MACtion between Kent St and Bowling Green on before that so that probably means that game goes to triple OT and they just release the rankings via twitter. xrolleyesx
Well it's 9 and there's still 10:33 left in the fourth in this meanless blowout. What now?

[dudeitsaid]

Well it's 9 and there's still 10:33 left in the fourth in this meanless blowout. What now?

What, you mean watching this exciting 35-7 Maction isn't better than finding out the final FCS committee top 10? This is must watch TV...:(

[Professor Chaos]

Well it's 9 and there's still 10:33 left in the fourth in this meanless blowout. What now?
Probably wait for a bunch of meaningless replay reviews while crappy teams (or at least one crappy team) fumble their way through the 4th quarter. Maybe by the top of the hour they'll be done. Worst part is that Championship Drive show was supposed to be an hour long show so it'll probably start off with talking heads hashing out the new CFP ranking.

[Redbird007]

DVR it as it is on again at 2:00AM

[JSUSoutherner]

QUIT THROWING THE DAMN BALL BOWLING GREEN YOU'RE UP BY 28. JUST RUN AND GTFO.

[Bison56]

Que up the jeopardy music. xwhistlex

[dudeitsaid]

QUIT THROWING THE DAMN BALL BOWLING GREEN YOU'RE UP BY 28. JUST RUN AND GTFO.

Obviously, based on the amount of fans in the stands, this game is riveting at this point! If the people at the game are representative of the percentage of people in the national viewing audience tuning in for this competition of gridiron juggernauts, by all means, leave it on. Heck, probably should immediately replay the game for those of us who missed any tantalizing moment.

[dudeitsaid]

Why is Kent St not using their time outs! They are wasting away the clock. How will they mount a comeback without better clock management?

[Professor Chaos]

Oh! My! God!!!!!


Why is Kent St not using their time outs! They are wasting away the clock. How will they mount a comeback without better clock management?
They were listening apparently.... never seen a team call TO down 35 with 2 seconds left.

[Prime Power]

Why is Kent St not using their time outs! They are wasting away the clock. How will they mount a comeback without better clock management?

There ya go. TO

[dudeitsaid]

Sweet! Timeout called! The tension is palpable!

[BisonTru]

Finally, now we can listen about the 4 team FBS playoff:( for an hour waiting for our 30 second blurb.