Last 2 Seeds

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

The top 6 is pretty well locked in, IMO. Interesting race for the last 2 seeds, including...

Chattanooga
UCA
Richmond
North Dakota
Villanova (if they defeat JMU)
South Dakota St

Anybody else I'm missing?

How do you rank them?

[BisonTru]

Cal Poly and Youngstown St deserve to be in these talks, IMO.

My ranking of these teams
Central Arkansas
South Dakota St
Chattanooga
Youngstown St
Cal Poly
Richmond
North Dakota
Villanova

[F'N Hawks]

Cal Poly and Youngstown St deserve to be in these talks, IMO.

My ranking of these teams
Central Arkansas
South Dakota St
Chattanooga
Youngstown St
Cal Poly
Richmond
North Dakota
Villanova

Poly? No. YSU? No.

[Professor Chaos]

The top 6 is pretty well locked in, IMO. Interesting race for the last 2 seeds, including...

Chattanooga
UCA
Richmond
North Dakota
Villanova (if they defeat JMU)
South Dakota St

Anybody else I'm missing?

How do you rank them?
I think if Villanova beats JMU that knocks the Dukes to the edge of the seed line so that may open up another spot for someone else. Right now, I think Richmond and Chatty have the inside track but UND and SDSU are very close behind.


Poly? No. YSU? No.
Agreed on YSU. They've beaten nobody significant (unless UNI or USD can make win out to make those wins look better) and they don't have a chance for any more statement wins either before the playoffs.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

NDSU
SHSU
JMU
South Dakota State
Richmond
Chattanooga
UCA
EWU

[BisonTru]

Agreed on YSU. They've beaten nobody significant (unless UNI or USD can make win out to make those wins look better) and they don't have a chance for any more statement wins either before the playoffs.

What's Central Arkansas's, Chattanooga's, and North Dakota's wins that are so much superior to anything YSU has done that bids them a seat in this conversation, but excludes the Penguins?

[Professor Chaos]

What's Central Arkansas's, Chattanooga's, and North Dakota's wins that are so much superior to anything YSU has done that bids them a seat in this conversation, but excludes the Penguins?
Chattanooga has beaten Samford and UND has beaten Cal Poly. UCA beat an FBS team, maybe a marginal FBS team but it's not like it was Georgia St. YSU lacks anything near that right now.

[TheKingpin28]

Now lets assume all win out, that are capable of, then there are multiple ways I see this going assuming and I will create scenarios for: SHSU, The Citadel, Chatty, JMU, UCA, UND, SDSU, UR

(Note this is what I see is a BEST CASE SCENARIO for each team to increase their seeding, not where I think they will be and I am using this current weeks top 8 to figure out and keep a base guideline) I did not do NDSU or EWU since if they win out, they will lock the 1, 2, or 3 seeds.
[B]
Scenario 1: SHSU Wins Out

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU/JSU
5 JMU/JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU/Chatty
7 Chatty/UND
8 UND/SDSU/UR

Scenario 2a: The Citadel Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
2 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
3 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
4 JMU
5 JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU
7 Chatty
8 UND

2b: The Citadel wins out and SHSU loses to UCA

1 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
2 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
3 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel
4 JMU
5 JSU
6 JSU/UCA
7 UCA/Chatty
8 Chatty/UND

Scenario 3a: Chatty Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 Chatty (Cause Alabama)
2 NDSU/EWU
3 NDSU/EWU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 The Citadel/JMU
6 JSU/SHSU
7 JSU/SHSU
8 UND

3b: Chatty Wins Out and SHSU loses to UCA

1 Chatty (Cause Alabama)
2 NDSU/EWU
3 NDSU/EWU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 The Citadel/JMU
6 JSU/UCA
7 JSU/UCA
8 UND

Scenario 4a: JMU Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU/JMU
3 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel/JMU
4 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU
7 Chatty
8 UND

Scenario 4b: JMU Wins Out and SHSU loses to UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU/JMU
3 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel/JMU
4 NDSU/EWU/The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA
7 Chatty
8 UND

Scenario 5: UCA Wins Out

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA
7 Chatty
8 UND

Scenario 6a: UND Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU/UND
7 JSU/SHSU/Chatty/UND
8 Chatty/UND

Scenario 6b: UND Wins Out and SHSU loses to UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA/UND
7 UCA/UND
8 Chatty

Scenario 7a: SDSU Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU
7 Chatty/UND
8 Chatty/UND/SDSU

Scenario 7b: SDSU Wins Out and SHSU loses to UCA
1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA
7 Chatty/UND
8 Chatty/UND/SDSU

Scenario 8a UR Wins Out and SHSU beats UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/SHSU
6 JSU/SHSU
7 Chatty/UND
8 Chatty/UND/UR

Scenario 8b UR Wins Out and SHSU loses to UCA

1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA
7 Chatty/UND
8 Chatty/UND/UR

Sure I could do Villanova as well but I got tired and have been watching the Premier League and had to watch my Swansea City boys lose another one.

[BEAR]

S if UCA beats Sammy and goes 10-1 with an FBS win, road wins by an average of +25, and a road win against a top 5 Sammy, wouldnt they be in the top 6? Making Sammy one of the last two spots? hypothetical of course.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

That looks like an awful lot of scenarios where Richmond is out of the seeding equation. Gut feeling, SHSU/NDSU/JSU/Citdogs/EWU own the Top 5 seeds, then it's a 2nd placed MVFC team, a 2nd placed Big Sky Team, a 2nd placed CAA team, or "other" (UCA) for that final spot.

Lehigh is a conference champion and is 8-2 but I would put their chances at a seed as very, very slim. I think JMU's upset of Richmond drastically reduced their chance at making it.

[TheKingpin28]

S if UCA beats Sammy and goes 10-1 with an FBS win, road wins by an average of +25, and a road win against a top 5 Sammy, wouldnt they be in the top 6? Making Sammy one of the last two spots? hypothetical of course.

Scenario 5: UCA Wins Out1 NDSU/EWU
2 NDSU/EWU
3 The Citadel/JMU
4 The Citadel/JMU
5 JSU/UCA
6 JSU/UCA
7 Chatty
8 UND

So this is what I see. The top 4 SOS is undeniably stronger than the rest of the field outside of UNI and maybe WIU. Now that those 2 teams do not have a snowballs chance in hell of making a seed, they are eliminated. Considering the Southland is 7 out of 13 for SOS and Ohio Valley is 6 out of 13 it is pretty much a coin flip. The winner of both gets a seed for sure and then it comes down to who you played for OOC. Considering Southland only allows for 2 OOC VS OVC which allows for 3 or 4 lets look at competition.

JSU:
Wins: UNA (D2), CCU, Liberty (blowout on the road)
Loss: LSU (who took Alabama to the wire last time) and it was a respectable loss
UCA:
Wins: Arkansas State (FBS) (Mediocre Sunbelt team on the road)
Loss: Samford (Solid top 15 team but at home)

When I stack the OOC against JSU, I would have to give the nod to JSU.

Now with Sammy, if they lose to you, they are not seeded, period and vice versa. Southland is way too weak to get 2 seeds. Only conference that will get 2 will either be CAA or SoCon.

[centennial]

S if UCA beats Sammy and goes 10-1 with an FBS win, road wins by an average of +25, and a road win against a top 5 Sammy, wouldnt they be in the top 6? Making Sammy one of the last two spots? hypothetical of course.

If SHSU losses 1 they should not be ranked.

[ElCid]

An 8-3 Samford deserves to be looked at well. Lost to UTC on the road (probable seed), The Citadel on the road (probable seed), lost to P5 FBS but very good showing, BEAT C Ark on the road (possible seed), BEAT possible playoff team Wofford. SOS is currently ranked 12 in Massey.

That is not too far off some of these others listed. A 9-2 Villanova with win over JMU trumps them, but not an 8-3 Villanova (toss up) and certainly an 8-3 ND does not even come close to Samford's resume.

I would like to here an argument why they should not be considered. A constructive argument with objective data rather than just baseless opinion.

[Professor Chaos]

An 8-3 Samford deserves to be looked at well. Lost to UTC on the road (probable seed), The Citadel on the road (probable seed), lost to P5 FBS but very good showing, BEAT C Ark on the road (possible seed), BEAT possible playoff team Wofford. SOS is currently ranked 12 in Massey.

That is not too far off some of these others listed. A 9-2 Villanova with win over JMU trumps them, but not an 8-3 Villanova (toss up) and certainly an 8-3 ND does not even come close to Samford's resume.

I would like to here an argument why they should not be considered. A constructive argument with objective data rather than just baseless opinion.
UND has no shot at a seed at 8-3 so that's probably not a good comparison. SDSU at 8-3 would be a better comparison. If Chatty is seeded like your post suggests that means there's only one seed left and they also could be up against a 9-2 Richmond and a 9-2 UCA for that last seed. I think their head-to-head win over UCA gives them the nod there but I don't think they get seeded over 9-2 Richmond or 8-3 SDSU. Both those teams would have to lose another game IMO for Samford to have a chance at the #8 seed.

[Thumper 76]

The top 6 is pretty well locked in, IMO. Interesting race for the last 2 seeds, including...

Chattanooga
UCA
Richmond
North Dakota
Villanova (if they defeat JMU)
South Dakota St

Anybody else I'm missing?

How do you rank them?

If they all win out then I think the order would be:

UCA
Richmond
Chatty
UND
SDSU
Villanova

*disclaimer*
This is how I think the committee would have it, not my personal rankings.


UCA is the most pivotal one. If they win it's likely that the Southland will only have two teams in the playoffs but both would end up being seeded. With how the committee chair sounded in his interview this week I doubt the committee drops SHSU out of the top 8 from number two with their slot voting. Especially if they can justify it by saying they lost to a highly ranked team. If SHSU wins that drops out UCA and opens another spot.

Pretty wild to think that the potential autobid winner from what is the acknowledged deepest conference is looking like a long shot to get a seed if they win out. Especially since the only team they avoid playing is Indiana State and won at NDSU. Meanwhile one of the weakest conferences might end up with two seeds. Makes sense doesn't it.


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[F'N Hawks]

SDSU would get seed over UND if they win out. No doubt.

[milleniumkat]

NDSU
SHSU
JMU
South Dakota State
Richmond
Chattanooga
UCA
EWU

Who do you have JSU losing to?


"You Can't run with #81!"

[Thumper 76]

SDSU would get seed over UND if they win out. No doubt.

I'm not sure. Only common opponent was Poly and UND beat them. Plus this committee seems to value lack of losses over ranked wins, I think that UND has the inside track.


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[ElCid]

UND has no shot at a seed at 8-3 so that's probably not a good comparison. SDSU at 8-3 would be a better comparison. If Chatty is seeded like your post suggests that means there's only one seed left and they also could be up against a 9-2 Richmond and a 9-2 UCA for that last seed. I think their head-to-head win over UCA gives them the nod there but I don't think they get seeded over 9-2 Richmond or 8-3 SDSU. Both those teams would have to lose another game IMO for Samford to have a chance at the #8 seed.

I could buy that. But an 8-3 Samford should be in the discussion and I hadn't seen it. Still some ball to play in any event.

[sgt smash]

Chattanooga has beaten Samford and UND has beaten Cal Poly. UCA beat an FBS team, maybe a marginal FBS team but it's not like it was Georgia St. YSU lacks anything near that right now.


I really think we need to look at MOV over Duquesne and Bob Morris. If that gets points for one team, why not another?

[Twentysix]

If UCA beats SHSU they are likely a top 6 seed (i'd peg them at #5). I would think SHSU would be out of the seeding at that point.