EWU vs UND

[70MilesFromCanada]

Looking for a knowledgeable response for the scenario if both EWU and UND run the table with their remaining Big Sky schedule. Who would get the autobid and would UND get any seed? I know that other posts have down played the weak looking UND schedule, but based on current standings, UND is actually scheduled to play teams in the upper half of the standings. I know those losses hurt, but they were early and close. Thoughts?

[RabidRabbit]

If both EWU & UND run the Big Sky table, I believe that EWU will win the tie-breaker via better overall record and FBS win. Where the Big Sky gets really muddled is if 4 teams (or more) are tied. I'll let Big Sky fans address those possibilities.

Because of the weak UND schedule, and a 1-2 OOC, IMHO, UND wouldn't be seeded even if win outright Big Sky conference.

[SUUTbird]

EWU would get the seed over UND even though it is playing out this year that the Fighting Hawks schedule is not as weak as originally thought or it has been made out to be. Beating Washington State and losing @ NDSU in overtime on top of wins over Montana and Cal Poly if they win out would be an impressive resume.

[POD Knows]

EWU gets the seed, yea, UND's SOS appears to be a little tougher than discussed but that doesn't change the fact that every difficult conference foe is a home game for UND, that is a big deal.

UND will win out, finish at 9-2 and not get a seed, as it should be but I am probably letting my anti-UND bias cloud my judgment.

[kalm]

What about Weber winning out? Are the hell are they...chopped liver?

[bincitysioux]

If North Dakota and Eastern Washington both finish the year 8-0 in the Big Sky conference, EWU would get the autobid and certainly a seed.

UND would need several teams from other conferences to lose a few games in order to get a seed IMO.



Big Sky Tiebreaker

When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for the purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:

1. Head-to-head competition.

2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order.

3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in
descending order.

4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents.

5. Sagarin Ratings.

6. Coin Flip

[bincitysioux]

What about Weber winning out? Are the hell are they...chopped liver?

I'd say they are in the same boat as UND.

[SUUTbird]

What about Weber winning out? Are the hell are they...chopped liver?

Not at all they are a solid team however they have a rough road ahead of them having to play @ North Dakota, vs Cal Poly and vs NAU. SUU was the strongest opponent they have played since South Dakota and this will be the toughest part of their schedule coming up.

[tomq04]

What about Weber winning out? Are the hell are they...chopped liver?

UND and Weber play next week, so the preclusion here is that UND wins out, meaning Weber loses at least 1 game.

[SDFS]

EWU gets the seed, yea, UND's SOS appears to be a little tougher than discussed but that doesn't change the fact that every difficult conference foe is a home game for UND, that is a big deal.

UND will win out, finish at 9-2 and not get a seed, as it should be but I am probably letting my anti-UND bias cloud my judgment.

Of the 8 games so far this year 5 have been on the road. Those road games have been in all time zones ET to PT. UND only has 5 home games this year and a Bye on the last week of the season. Yesterday UND looked like a team the could use a week off to rest and heal up.

[POD Knows]

Of the 8 games so far this year 5 have been on the road. Those road games have been in all time zones ET to PT. UND only has 5 home games this year and a Bye on the last week of the season. Yesterday UND looked like a team the could use a week off to rest and heal up.

I understand, here is your road schedule-Montana State/Dog****, Sac State/bigger pile of dog****, Idaho State/steaming pile of dog****, Northern Colorado, they suck too. You could not have structured an easier conference schedule, all of your away games are cupcakes. I don't care about your OOC, the thread is about the BSC.

[nodak651]

I understand, here is your road schedule-Montana State/Dog****, Sac State/bigger pile of dog****, Idaho State/steaming pile of dog****, Northern Colorado, they suck too. You could not have structured an easier conference schedule, all of your away games are cupcakes. I don't care about your OOC, the thread is about the BSC.

I don't think Northern Colorado is actually that bad this year. But we are fortunate that we play the tougher BSC games at home this year. I could see us losing to both Weber and NAU and not making the playoffs again, unfortunately.

[BisonTru]

UND really needs Stony Brook, South Dakota, and Cal Poly to keep winning games. It also helps the more teams projected now as seeds, lose games down the road.

I wouldn't worry at all about who gets the auto. It doesn't matter both teams are in, in that scenario, and it doesn't matter as far as seeding.

[OverratedGriz]

I understand, here is your road schedule-Montana State/Dog****, Sac State/bigger pile of dog****, Idaho State/steaming pile of dog****, Northern Colorado, they suck too. You could not have structured an easier conference schedule, all of your away games are cupcakes. I don't care about your OOC, the thread is about the BSC.

Doesn't say much about the Big Sky.

If UND wants to play tougher competition it's becoming clear they'll need to switch conferences.

[kalm]

Doesn't say much about the Big Sky.

If UND wants to play tougher competition it's becoming clear they'll need to switch conferences.

I'm sure the MWC will come calling soon.

[nodak651]

I'm sure the MWC will come calling soon.

Please ignore him. He might be our first bandwagon fan.

[70MilesFromCanada]

If North Dakota and Eastern Washington both finish the year 8-0 in the Big Sky conference, EWU would get the autobid and certainly a seed.

UND would need several teams from other conferences to lose a few games in order to get a seed IMO.

So...are you saying it comes down to Sagarin ratings? I can't figure how the other tie breakers work if they both finish undefeated in conference play.

[SDFS]

When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for the purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:

1. Head-to-head competition. - UND and EWU do not play - next.

2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order. UND and EWU tie if both win out - next

3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in descending order. UND and EWU did not conference team in non conference play - next.

4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents. NA - Next.

5. Sagarin Ratings. If both teams win out it is Sagain Ratings. The question is which one? They have four different rankings. NOTE: It really doesn't matter which one they use. UND is so far behind on all of them it does not make a difference.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Current Ratings Filtered for FCS: NOTE: UND is the 24th team ie a bubble to even make the playoffs at this time based on this rating system.



FCS Rank
Rank
School
Rating
W
L
Schedule
PREDICTOR
GOLDEN_MEAN
RECENT


1
57
North Dakota State
72.11
6
1
59.36
71.66 58
74.66 47
74.83 45


2
77
Northern Iowa
66.52
3
4
58.4
67.04 76
64.04 88
63.44 92


3
79
South Dakota State
66.10
5
2
58.3
65.91 82
67.10 75
67.33 75


4
83
Eastern Washington
65.75
6
1
56.86
65.65 84
66.10 77
66.74 77


5
89
Youngstown State
64.03
5
2
56.16
64.05 89
63.87 90
64.11 89


6
92
Jacksonville State
63.56
6
1
49.77
63.20 94
65.50 80
65.77 78


7
101
Chattanooga
61.11
7
1
41.99
60.78 102
62.86 96
62.94 96


8
102
Montana
60.97
5
2
46.13
61.23 100
59.57 109
59.63 109


9
104
Richmond
59.92
7
1
46.94
59.55 106
61.84 100
62.08 100


10
107
James Madison
59.32
6
1
42.92
59.20 108
59.84 108
60.14 105


11
108
Sam Houston State
59.08
7
0
34.25
58.53 110
62.05 99
62.23 99


12
112
Central Arkansas
58.10
6
1
42.04
58.12 112
57.83 113
58.24 114


13
115
Charleston Southern
57.38
4
2
57.61
57.47 115
56.83 119
57.08 119


14
117
The Citadel
57.25
7
0
48.25
56.53 121
61.02 103
61.59 101


15
123
Western Illinois
56.24
5
2
56.34
55.70 125
59.02 110
59.46 111


16
124
Villanova
55.96
6
2
45.5
55.85 123
56.47 122
56.68 122


17
125
Cal Poly-SLO
55.83
5
2
53.12
55.77 124
55.95 123
56.53 123


18
126
Samford
55.67
6
1
49.25
55.45 127
56.74 121
57.15 118


19
128
Lehigh
55.28
6
2
43.71
55.51 126
53.79 136
54.45 133


20
129
Coastal Carolina
55.18
5
2
43.52
55.19 130
55.00 128
55.31 125


21
131
Northern Arizona
54.83
4
4
54.16
54.87 131
54.67 131
54.50 132


22
132
Illinois State
54.50
3
5
54.51
54.50 133
54.66 132
54.22 134


23
136
Liberty
53.56
4
3
47.19
53.81 136
52.17 142
52.29 141


24
137
North Dakota
53.50
6
2
46.48
53.27 138
54.56 133
55.02 129


25
138
Wofford
53.21
4
3
50.12
53.52 137
51.44 144
51.64 145




6. Coin Flip

[ursus arctos horribilis]

When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for the purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:

1. Head-to-head competition. - UND and EWU do not play - next.

2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order. UND and EWU tie if both win out - next

3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in descending order. UND and EWU did not conference team in non conference play - next.

4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents. NA - Next.

5. Sagarin Ratings. If both teams win out it is Sagain Ratings. The question is which one? They have four different rankings. NOTE: It really doesn't matter which one they use. UND is so far behind on all of them it does not make a difference.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Current Ratings Filtered for FCS: NOTE: UND is the 24th team ie a bubble to even make the playoffs at this time based on this rating system.



FCS Rank
Rank
School
Rating
W
L
Schedule
PREDICTOR
GOLDEN_MEAN
RECENT


1
57
North Dakota State
72.11
6
1
59.36
71.66 58
74.66 47
74.83 45


2
77
Northern Iowa
66.52
3
4
58.4
67.04 76
64.04 88
63.44 92


3
79
South Dakota State
66.10
5
2
58.3
65.91 82
67.10 75
67.33 75


4
83
Eastern Washington
65.75
6
1
56.86
65.65 84
66.10 77
66.74 77


5
89
Youngstown State
64.03
5
2
56.16
64.05 89
63.87 90
64.11 89


6
92
Jacksonville State
63.56
6
1
49.77
63.20 94
65.50 80
65.77 78


7
101
Chattanooga
61.11
7
1
41.99
60.78 102
62.86 96
62.94 96


8
102
Montana
60.97
5
2
46.13
61.23 100
59.57 109
59.63 109


9
104
Richmond
59.92
7
1
46.94
59.55 106
61.84 100
62.08 100


10
107
James Madison
59.32
6
1
42.92
59.20 108
59.84 108
60.14 105


11
108
Sam Houston State
59.08
7
0
34.25
58.53 110
62.05 99
62.23 99


12
112
Central Arkansas
58.10
6
1
42.04
58.12 112
57.83 113
58.24 114


13
115
Charleston Southern
57.38
4
2
57.61
57.47 115
56.83 119
57.08 119


14
117
The Citadel
57.25
7
0
48.25
56.53 121
61.02 103
61.59 101


15
123
Western Illinois
56.24
5
2
56.34
55.70 125
59.02 110
59.46 111


16
124
Villanova
55.96
6
2
45.5
55.85 123
56.47 122
56.68 122


17
125
Cal Poly-SLO
55.83
5
2
53.12
55.77 124
55.95 123
56.53 123


18
126
Samford
55.67
6
1
49.25
55.45 127
56.74 121
57.15 118


19
128
Lehigh
55.28
6
2
43.71
55.51 126
53.79 136
54.45 133


20
129
Coastal Carolina
55.18
5
2
43.52
55.19 130
55.00 128
55.31 125


21
131
Northern Arizona
54.83
4
4
54.16
54.87 131
54.67 131
54.50 132


22
132
Illinois State
54.50
3
5
54.51
54.50 133
54.66 132
54.22 134


23
136
Liberty
53.56
4
3
47.19
53.81 136
52.17 142
52.29 141


24
137
North Dakota
53.50
6
2
46.48
53.27 138
54.56 133
55.02 129


25
138
Wofford
53.21
4
3
50.12
53.52 137
51.44 144
51.64 145




6. Coin Flip

Good work SDFS.xthumbsupx

[dudeitsaid]

When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for the purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:

1. Head-to-head competition. - UND and EWU do not play - next.

2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order. UND and EWU tie if both win out - next

3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in descending order. UND and EWU did not conference team in non conference play - next.

4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents. NA - Next.

5. Sagarin Ratings. If both teams win out it is Sagain Ratings. The question is which one? They have four different rankings. NOTE: It really doesn't matter which one they use. UND is so far behind on all of them it does not make a difference.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


Current Ratings Filtered for FCS: NOTE: UND is the 24th team ie a bubble to even make the playoffs at this time based on this rating system.



FCS Rank
Rank
School
Rating
W
L
Schedule
PREDICTOR
GOLDEN_MEAN
RECENT


1
57
North Dakota State
72.11
6
1
59.36
71.66 58
74.66 47
74.83 45


2
77
Northern Iowa
66.52
3
4
58.4
67.04 76
64.04 88
63.44 92


3
79
South Dakota State
66.10
5
2
58.3
65.91 82
67.10 75
67.33 75


4
83
Eastern Washington
65.75
6
1
56.86
65.65 84
66.10 77
66.74 77


5
89
Youngstown State
64.03
5
2
56.16
64.05 89
63.87 90
64.11 89


6
92
Jacksonville State
63.56
6
1
49.77
63.20 94
65.50 80
65.77 78


7
101
Chattanooga
61.11
7
1
41.99
60.78 102
62.86 96
62.94 96


8
102
Montana
60.97
5
2
46.13
61.23 100
59.57 109
59.63 109


9
104
Richmond
59.92
7
1
46.94
59.55 106
61.84 100
62.08 100


10
107
James Madison
59.32
6
1
42.92
59.20 108
59.84 108
60.14 105


11
108
Sam Houston State
59.08
7
0
34.25
58.53 110
62.05 99
62.23 99


12
112
Central Arkansas
58.10
6
1
42.04
58.12 112
57.83 113
58.24 114


13
115
Charleston Southern
57.38
4
2
57.61
57.47 115
56.83 119
57.08 119


14
117
The Citadel
57.25
7
0
48.25
56.53 121
61.02 103
61.59 101


15
123
Western Illinois
56.24
5
2
56.34
55.70 125
59.02 110
59.46 111


16
124
Villanova
55.96
6
2
45.5
55.85 123
56.47 122
56.68 122


17
125
Cal Poly-SLO
55.83
5
2
53.12
55.77 124
55.95 123
56.53 123


18
126
Samford
55.67
6
1
49.25
55.45 127
56.74 121
57.15 118


19
128
Lehigh
55.28
6
2
43.71
55.51 126
53.79 136
54.45 133


20
129
Coastal Carolina
55.18
5
2
43.52
55.19 130
55.00 128
55.31 125


21
131
Northern Arizona
54.83
4
4
54.16
54.87 131
54.67 131
54.50 132


22
132
Illinois State
54.50
3
5
54.51
54.50 133
54.66 132
54.22 134


23
136
Liberty
53.56
4
3
47.19
53.81 136
52.17 142
52.29 141


24
137
North Dakota
53.50
6
2
46.48
53.27 138
54.56 133
55.02 129


25
138
Wofford
53.21
4
3
50.12
53.52 137
51.44 144
51.64 145




6. Coin Flip

The fact that 2 is ahead of 3 (though only by .1 of a percent) should make everyone question the Sagarin. I still do not get the computer ratings love affair with UNI! 3 wins, 4 losses. I don't give a rip they beat the Cyclones, that is just wrong. That being said, at least EWU is above UND in this BSC critical decision making tool...

Of course, UNI will beat NDSU this weekend...

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Having the last week off will screw UND somehow.....

[POD Knows]

Having the last week off will screw UND somehow.....

Hope they keep them in the weight room or their muscles will atrophy.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Hope they keep them in the weight room or their muscles will atrophy.

Lol i was thinking more from a selection comittee point of view....but ya yours works too.

[70MilesFromCanada]

Lol i was thinking more from a selection comittee point of view....but ya yours works too.

Crap. Having 2 weeks off because of a seeded bye sucks. I guess we gotta lose one.