MVFC Playoff Outlook 2016

[Professor Chaos]

Link to: Post week 9 update (10/29) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?187509-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2016&p=2402373&viewfull=1#post2402373)
Link to: Post week 10 update (11/5) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?187509-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2016&p=2407573&viewfull=1#post2407573)
Link to: Post week 11 update (11/12) (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?187509-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook-2016&p=2412764&viewfull=1#post2412764)

Back by popular demand (not really but I enjoy doing it so here it is).

We're halfway through the conference season and with 4 weeks to go 9 of 10 MVFC are technically still alive IMO. I've ordered the teams accoring to who I think has the easiest path to the playoffs to the toughest along with my thoughts on where each is shaking out.


Locks

None yet


Should be in

North Dakota St (6-1, 3-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @UNI, YSU, ISUb, @USD
The Bison haven't been overly impressive doing it but they've picked up a bunch of quality wins that should put them in the playoffs even if they can only manage to win 1 of their last 4. Winning out would almost certinaly give them a top 2 seed and even dropping one more would probably still net them a 1st round bye.

South Dakota St (5-2, 4-0)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUr, MSU, USD, @UNI
I put SDSU in the "Should be in" category because they've already beaten the other top 3 teams in the MVFC so their remaining schedule is a bit softer than the first half of their conference schedule (in which they won all 4 games). They've got the outright conference title firmly within their grasp and two wins in their last 4 will lock them in which they should be able to do easily. If they can win out they're likely a top 4 seed with the autobid in tote. Even at 8-3 (7-1) I'd think they'd still have a decent shot at a seed (and a bye).


Work left to do

Youngstown St (5-2, 3-1)
Quality wins: USD
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @NDSU, SIU, @MSU
The Penguins missed a big opportunity to put themselves over the hump for the playoffs losing at SDSU today. They need to win 3 of 4 down the stretch to lock themselves in which is definitely doable given the schedule. However, if they only win 2 of 4 they'll find themselves in a familiar place firmly on the bubble come selection Sunday given their weak non-conference schedule. Winning out would likely net them a seed and a bye.

Western Illinois (5-2, 2-2)
Quality wins: @EIU (being generous here), NIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, ISUr, UNI, @SIU
The Necks need to win 3 of their last 4 to avoid a sweat. Next week's game in Vermillion will be huge for them. If they win that they're looking very good for the playoffs given their remaining games. I think at 7-4 (4-4) they'd be ok but they'd have to depend on bubble teams elsewhere helping them out a bit. If they can win out they should end up seeded.

South Dakota (4-3, 3-1)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: WIU, @SIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Yotes are in a decent spot but their remaining schedule is brutal and they'll probably need to win 3 of 4 to get in. They don't have any quality wins yet (although UNI may play themselves into being a quality win) but they have opportunities down the stretch to pick those up. They'd be very iffy at 6-5 but if their prospective wins down the stretch are good enough it's possible.

Northern Iowa (3-4, 2-2)
Quality wins: @Iowa St
Bad losses: None (although USD may turn out to be one)
Remaining games: NDSU, @ISUb, @WIU, SDSU
This is a familiar spot for the Panthers as we were here just two years ago; backs against the wall with highly ranked NDSU coming to the UNI-dome. I think the Panthers can survive one more loss just due to the fact that they've got NDSU, WIU, and SDSU in their last 4 which means if they win 3 of 4 they're going to have some really good wins to add to their Iowa St win. However, any 6-5 team is going to be in for a sweat no matter how good their wins are. They'll need to win out to make it a sure thing.


Must win out

Indiana St (4-4, 2-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: MSU
Remaining games: @YSU, UNI, @NDSU
The Trees stayed alive today with a road win in Carbondale but it's pretty simple for them; win out or play spoiler. Their remaining schedule is incredibly tough so they've got a chance to prove they belong but it's probably pretty unlikely they'll be on this list long.

Missouri St (3-4, 1-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: @UNI (moreso due to the margin than the opponent)
Remaining games: SIU, @SDSU, @ISUr, YSU
The fact the Bears are even on this list is a surprise given their debacle of a 2015 season. However, after the slaughter at UNI today it seems highly unlikely they'll be here long as they need to win out to have a shot. SIU at home next week is winnable though so they've got a decent chance to stay relevant for one more week.

Illinois St (3-5, 1-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern
Bad losses: @ISUb
Remaining games: SDSU, @WIU, MSU
The Redbirds could just as well be in the "Eliminated" category but if they can somehow engineer a massive turnaround and win their last 3 they'd have a real shot at 6-5 given their win over Northwestern coupled with that theoretical 3 game win streak. Let's be honest though, they've lost 5 of 6 so it's incredibly unlikely that the red hot Jackrabbits won't eliminate them next week.


Eliminated

Southern Illinois (2-5, 0-4) - As they proved against SDSU the Salukis have the ability to play spoiler down the stretch and at this point that's all they can do.

[Schism55]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23741&stc=1
It's official bud, no need to be nice ;)

[Bisonator]

Yeah I'd move both ISUr and MSU to the eliminated category. I was told there would be no math(ematically)

[MSUDuo]

Yeah I'd move both ISUr and MSU to the eliminated category. I was told there would be no math(ematically)

ISUr yes, MSU no. For all intents and purposes, MSU is done but if they did find a way to win out, they would get in. Even if ISUr wins out, 6-5 isn't going to be enough

[UNI Pike]

Can MSU get enough wins to make the cut, even if they win out? Two of the wins are against D-II, correct?

Sent from my NSA monitored One+ 3

[Professor Chaos]

Can MSU get enough wins to make the cut, even if they win out? Two of the wins are against D-II, correct?

Sent from my NSA monitored One+ 3
Just one (contrary to popular belief Murray St is actually a D1 team). Only 6 D1 wins needed these days to receive "consideration".

[UNI Pike]

OVC win - now I understand where the confusion arose. Gracias.

Sent from my NSA monitored One+ 3

[JayJ79]

Just one (contrary to popular belief Murray St is actually a D1 team). Only 6 D1 wins needed these days to receive "consideration".

didn't Murray State win at Eastern Illinois today?

[Professor Chaos]

didn't Murray State win at Eastern Illinois today?
They sure did. It made the OVC a 1 bid league IMO unless JSU manages to lose the autobid via tie breaker to Tennessee St (since those two teams don't play each other) but that would require another OVC team to actually beat JSU.

[Gil Dobie]

Worse case scenario for each team (not a predicted finish). If they lose against the toughest teams on their respective schedule and beat the teams they should beat.

NDSU 7-4, if the Bison lose to USD, UNI and YSU, bubble team, should be in.
SDSU 7-4, if the Bunnies lose to USD and UNI, bubble team, should be in.
YSU 8-3, if the Pens lose to NDSU, will be in
WIU 7-4, if the Necks lose to USD and UNI, bubble team, should be in
USD 5-6, if the Yotes lose to NDSU, SDSU and WIU, no playoffs
UNI 4-7, if the Panthers lose to NDSU, SDSU and WIU, no playoffs

[Professor Chaos]

Well, the MVFC conference landscape changed pretty drastically this week. Get used to it because I think there's more pandemonium to come in the last 3 weeks of the MVFC schedule. Regardless of the mayhem I still contend that 8 of 10 MVFC teams still have playoff aspirations although only NDSU can be feeling too comfortable going into the last 3 weeks of the regular season. It's looking like only 4 MVFC teams at most will be making the playoffs this year. I've ordered the teams according to who I think has the easiest path to the playoffs to the toughest along with my thoughts on where each is shaking out.


Locks

None yet


Should be in

North Dakota St (7-1, 4-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: YSU, ISUb, @USD
Once again it wasn't pretty but the Bison got it done and are about as close to a playoff lock as you can get despite their obvious deficiencies. They're in position to have homefield throughout the playoffs once again as winning out would almost certinaly give them a top 2 seed and even dropping one more would probably still net them a 1st round bye. One more win will lock them into a playoff spot.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (6-2, 4-1)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, SIU, @MSU
Like the Bison it wasn't pretty for YSU but they got it done against the Sycamores. They need to win 2 of 3 down the stretch to lock themselves in which is definitely doable given the schedule. However, if they only win 1 of those last 3 they'll find themselves in a familiar place firmly on the bubble come selection Sunday given their weak non-conference schedule. Winning out would likely net them a seed and a bye.

Western Illinois (6-2, 3-2)
Quality wins: NIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUr, UNI, @SIU
The Necks once again win a game they easily could've lost but a win is a win and winning at USD is not as easy at it used to be. They've got an interesting matchup next against the suddently revitalized Illinois St and they need to win 2 of their last 3 to take out a Selection Sunday sweat. I think they'll be fine even if they only win one of their last three to finish at 7-4 but they'd have to depend on bubble teams elsewhere helping them out a bit. If they win out they should end up seeded.

South Dakota St (5-3, 4-1)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: @ISU
Remaining games: MSU, USD, @UNI
Oh my... the Jacks just made things much more difficult on themselves than it needed to be with their loss to ISUr today. I still think they're in the playoffs if they win two of their last three. And I still think if they win out they've got a decent shot at a seed but they'd need help. Regardless, all the momentum they built in the first half of the conference season just came to an abrupt stop.


Must win out

South Dakota (4-4, 3-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SIU, @SDSU, NDSU
The Yotes had it in the palm of their hands and couldn't close the deal against WIU and that may have cooked their goose in 2016. They don't have any quality wins yet but they do have opportunities down the stretch to pick those up. I have a hard time seeing any scenario where at 6-5 they can get in. They could get two awesome wins against SDSU and NDSU but they'd have a horrible loss against SIU in that 6-5 scenario and if they only win one of two against SDSU and NDSU that lone win won't be enough to get them in IMO.

Missouri St (4-4, 2-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: @UNI (moreso due to the margin than the opponent)
Remaining games: @SDSU, @ISUr, YSU
The Bears stayed alive and the fact that they're still playing meaningful football going into November is a win in itself given the season they're coming off of. However, the reality is they need to win out and given their remaining schedule that's incredibly unlikely. It starts next week with a road game against what should be an incredibly motivated SDSU squad.

Illinois St (4-5, 2-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern, SDSU
Bad losses: @ISUb
Remaining games: @WIU, MSU
Well, all of a sudden life has been breathed into the Redbirds playoff prospects. They obviously will need help to get in at 6-5 but they tackled what is likely the biggest hurdle of their remaining schedule taking down SDSU. If they can knock off Leathernecks on the road next week all of a sudden they have a very winnable game against MSU in the final week to get to the 6-5 level they'd need to be at to have any shot at the playoffs. Stranger things have happened...

Northern Iowa (3-5, 2-3)
Quality wins: @Iowa St
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUb, @WIU, SDSU
The Panthers playoff hopes were dealt a crushing blow with their home loss to NDSU tonight. They obviously need to win out to have any shot and if they do they'll have some pretty good wins to go with their Iowa St win but winnning out is a tall order given their recent struggles and they'll need help even in that scenario.


Eliminated

Indiana St (4-5, 2-4)No quality wins for the Sycs means even at 6-5 they're likely SOL. Regardless they've got opportunities down the stretch to play spoiler.
Southern Illinois (2-6, 0-5) - Not that it mattered but losing at Missouri St is a microcosm of the last 2 season for SIU... just not quite good enough even to be considered mediocre in the MVFC.

[leatherneck177]

USD is a quality win for YSU but not Western?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

USD is a quality win for YSU but not Western?


WIU will end up 9-2 or 8-3 IMO.

[ytownchief22]

YSU must win the last 2 games in my mind with our weak non conference schedule. Obviously beating NDSU helps tremendously.

[leatherneck177]

I'd say that NDSU is a lock with that schedule and quality wins. Western got in last year at 6-5 while doing less than that.

[Professor Chaos]

USD is a quality win for YSU but not Western?
Good call, missed that. Taking that off for YSU.


I'd say that NDSU is a lock with that schedule and quality wins. Western got in last year at 6-5 while doing less than that.
NDSU has a buttload of quality wins but given how many close games they've played I just can't see putting them in the locks quite yet. In the unlikely event that they lose 3 in a row to end the year I think they'd be on the bubble given that theoretical end of year slide and bevy of close wins.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

YSU must win the last 2 games in my mind with our weak non conference schedule. Obviously beating NDSU helps tremendously.

NDSU is a house money game imo. They just can't stub their toe in the final two games.

[Thumper 76]

SDSU is NOT GOING TO BE A ****ING SEED


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

SDSU is NOT GOING TO BE A ****ING SEED


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Step away from the keyboard/phone for the night me-boy.... all is not lost as you may believe.

Tomorrow take a look at the schedules for Richmond (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/257/richmond-spiders), James Madison (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/256/james-madison-dukes), Charleston Southern (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2127/charleston-southern-buccaneers), Chattanooga (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/236/chattanooga-mocs), and Cal Poly (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/13/cal-poly-mustangs) and tell me that one more loss by any of those teams (you'll only need to pass 3 of those 5 - and Richmond and JMU play each other next week) won't make them look worse than an 8-3 (7-1) SDSU squad.

As much as you may not believe it I think SDSU will still be at #11 or #12 when the AGS Poll comes out on Monday.

[Thumper 76]

Step away from the keyboard/phone for the night me-boy.... all is not lost as you may believe.

Tomorrow take a look at the schedules for Richmond (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/257/richmond-spiders), James Madison (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/256/james-madison-dukes), Charleston Southern (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2127/charleston-southern-buccaneers), and Chattanooga (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/236/chattanooga-mocs)and tell me that one loss by any of those teams (you'll only need to pass two of those 4 - and Richmond and JMU play each other next week) won't make them look worse than an 8-3 (7-1) SDSU squad.

There is zero chance that SDSU is considered a top 8 seed without 3 of those teams dropping two games and most of them don't have that tough of a run left. The Poly loss at home and the loss to ISUr look like dog**** at best. Unless Jesus Christ himself intervenes we are not getting a goddamn seed. Most disappointing season in a long time to have the caliber of good wins we have and then **** them all down our leg like this. ****.

[Professor Chaos]

There is zero chance that SDSU is considered a top 8 seed without 3 of those teams dropping two games and most of them don't have that tough of a run left. The Poly loss at home and the loss to ISUr look like dog**** at best. Unless Jesus Christ himself intervenes we are not getting a goddamn seed. Most disappointing season in a long time to have the caliber of good wins we have and then **** them all down our leg like this. ****.
I can understand your frustration. I edited my post after you quoted it but I don't think SDSU drops any further than #12 in the AGS poll this week so I think all those teams that I mentioned in my previous post only need to lose once for SDSU to overtake them. NDSU, YSU, and WIU salvaged what could've been a catastrophic day for SDSU's seed hopes by all winning close games which strengthened the quality wins the Jacks have already picked up this year. After those 5 that I mentioned above you're looking at potential teams like a 9-2 UND, a 9-2 UCA (who would have to beat SHSU to get there which would knock that Kats down significantly), or a 9-2 Samford (who would have to beat The Citadel knocking them down significantly) as SDSU's competition.

SDSU obviously can't afford any other losses but I really think that at 8-3 they'd have a legit shot at the a seed if 3 of those 5 teams from my previous post dropped a game (and UCA and Samford lose to SHSU and The Citadel, respectively).

[Schism55]

There is zero chance that SDSU is considered a top 8 seed without 3 of those teams dropping two games and most of them don't have that tough of a run left. The Poly loss at home and the loss to ISUr look like dog**** at best. Unless Jesus Christ himself intervenes we are not getting a goddamn seed. Most disappointing season in a long time to have the caliber of good wins we have and then **** them all down our leg like this. ****.
You have it wrong. The Poly loss isn't bad, the TCU loss is. TCU is terrible.

[Thumper 76]

You have it wrong. The Poly loss isn't bad, the TCU loss is. TCU is terrible.
Really, thats where you're going with this?

[Professor Chaos]

Two teams were eliminated in week 10 leaving only 6 teams still in contention for a playoff spot. Due to Illinois St's stunning turnaround I think there's now an outside shot of 5 MVFC teams making it to the playoffs but it's still looking like 4 is more likely given that with the way the conference season has gone there's probably going to be some head scratching losses in the last two weeks by teams that can't afford them. I've ordered the teams according to who I think has the easiest path, or is already locked in, to the playoffs to the toughest along with my thoughts on where each is shaking out.


Locks

North Dakota St (8-1, 5-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @USD
The Bison locked themselves into the field picking up yet another quality win against YSU. I'd think they're in position to have homefield throughout the playoffs once again as a top 2 seed if they win out but whos knows with this selection committee's curious initial rankings. I think even if they split their final two they'll be seeded but they should be heavily favored to win both.


Should be in

South Dakota St (6-3, 5-1)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: @ISUr (although this loss isn't looking as bad as it did a week ago)
Remaining games: USD, @UNI
The Jacks got on track today knocking MSU out of playoff contention in convincing fashion. I think one more win locks them in and they face a reeling USD team at home next week with a good chance to get that. They better not mess around with that one though because that season finale in Cedar Falls has the potential to be a big game for UNI so that definitely won't be a gimme. I still think if they win out they've got a shot at a seed but they'd need help, especially considering the committee's odd placement of NDSU doesn't appear to show they value SDSU or the MVFC very strongly right now.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (6-3, 4-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU, @MSU
No good wins but no bad losses for YSU means they need to win their last 2 to lock themselves in which is definitely doable given they're facing two teams that are essentially just playing for pride at this point. However, if they only win 1 they'll find themselves in a familiar place firmly on the bubble come Selection Sunday given their weak non-conference schedule and complete lack of quality wins. Their chances at a bye went by the wayside with their loss today but making the playoffs for the first time in 10 years would be a great step forward for this program.

Western Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Quality wins: NIU
Bad losses: ISUr (like SDSU it's tough to call this a bad loss - the timing of it is bad moreso than the opponent)
Remaining games: UNI, @SIU
The Necks were the latest team to fall victim to a suddendly revitalized ISUr squad and they're now very much on the bubble with a UNI team coming to town next week that's desperate for a win. They need to win both of their final games to take out a Selection Sunday sweat. I think they'll be fine even if they only win one to finish at 7-4 but they'd have to depend on bubble teams elsewhere helping them out a bit. Their seeds chances also went out the window today but they've got bigger worries than that right now.


Must win out

Illinois St (5-5, 3-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern, SDSU, @WIU
Bad losses: @ISUb, @USD
Remaining games: MSU
The roller coaster season for the Redbirds hit probably it's highest point today with a huge road win against WIU. All they need to do is beat Missouri St at home next week and I think they've got a great shot at 6-5 with 3 quality wins (but boy does that ISUb loss look bad right now). They're obviously no sure thing and not playing a game in week 12 may hurt them (out of sight, out of mind for the comittee) but considering where they were at just 8 days ago this a stunning turnaround for them.

Northern Iowa (4-5, 3-3)
Quality wins: @Iowa St
Bad losses: @USD
Remaining games: @WIU, SDSU
The Panthers cruised to an easy victory in Terre Haute behind their 3rd string QB and did what they needed to do to stay alive. However things now get tougher with their final two games against solid playoff contending teams. Next week's game at WIU is huge for both teams but even moreso for UNI because they absolutely cannot afford a loss. If they do win out they'll add two great wins to their Iowa St win and would look pretty good at 6-5. Interestingly they don't play ISUr this year which could make for a pretty interesting comparison between the two teams if they both finish 6-5. I think ISUr's Northwestern win trumps UNI's Iowa St win so not only do they need to win out but they need help inside the MVFC and out of it to make the postseason. Winning out is a tall order though - they have the talent to do it but we will see.


Eliminated

South Dakota (4-5, 3-3) - They're technically not completely dead as if they win out to finish 6-5 they'd have a road win @SDSU and a home win vs NDSU to tout but let's be honest... that ain't happening. Handing SIU their first conference win of the year today was their death knell for 2016.
Missouri St (4-5, 2-4) - The Bears hung on for longer than most anyone thought they would this year but the clock struck midnight on their playoffs hopes for 2016. They've got something to build on going into next year though.
Indiana St (4-6, 2-5) - The Sycs are trending in the wrong direction as the season comes down the stretch. How did ISUr lose to this team?
Southern Illinois (3-6, 1-5) - Well, the Salukis showed today they're still capable of spoiling some playoff dreams. They'll have more chances to do it again with remaining games vs YSU and @WIU.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Nice work!

Always look forward to this!

[Professor Chaos]

Well, here's the last installment of the season for my MVFC Playoff Outlook (doesn't really pay to do it next week the night/morning before the field is announced). Suprisingly enough going into the final week there's still 6 MVFC with legit chances at a playoff berth. I think it's highly unlikely all 6 make it but it is possible and the conference seems to be a lock for at least 4 bids. I've ordered the teams according to who I think has the best playoff positioning right now to the most precarious.


Locks

North Dakota St (9-1, 6-1)
Quality wins: CSU, EWU, @Iowa, @WIU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD
The Bison were already locked in but today's convincing win puts them in a great spot to claim one of the top two seeds IMO. Next week they face a USD team who is coming off a crushing rivalry game loss that essentially ended their season so the Bison are in position to put an exclamation point on an impressive season. I think regardless what of happens against USD they have a 1st round bye but I'm sure they have their sights set higher than that right now.

South Dakota St (7-3, 6-1)
Quality wins: WIU, @NDSU, YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @UNI
It wasn't pretty but the Jacks locked themselves into the field with their win against USD. I still think if they beat UNI they've got a decent shot at a seed given how the rest of the games played out today but winning in Cedar Falls will not be an easy task as UNI has everything to play for next week and is playing very well of late. If they lose it's a distinct possibility that they're fed into NDSU for the 4th time in 5 years. If that's not the case they're likely going to be heading to Grand Forks to face a seeded UND squad.


Should be in

Youngstown St (7-3, 5-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @MSU
The playoff drought for the Penguins finally ends! They're in position to make the postseason for the first time since 2006... but they're not quite there yet. If they want to avoid a Selection Sunday sweat they need to beat Missouri St next weekend. Not that that's a very tall task but, given YSU's penchant for underachieving in November, it's no sure thing.


On the bubble

Western Illinois (6-4, 3-4)
Quality wins: NIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SIU
Yikes, after dropping their last two WIU is suddenly in desperate need of a win to stop the bleeding. I think they're in decent shape with a win @SIU but not only did they not do themselves any favors losing yesterday but some of their previous opponents like NAU and USD did them no favors either as those wins continue to lose what little luster they had. Regardless what happens next weekend they'll be on the bubble but I'd have to think 7-4 in the MVFC with an FBS win is good enough to get in.

Illinois St (6-5, 4-4)
Quality wins: @Northwestern, SDSU, @WIU
Bad losses: @ISUb
Remaining games: None
The Redbirds completed their improbable turnaround with a whitewashing of Missouri St. They're "in the clubhouse" at 6-5 and, while they can't feel too comfortable, they should have a pretty decent shot with 3 high quality wins. They do have some really head scratching losses though, particularly to ISUb and EIU. In the end though, I think the committee recognizes their late season hot streak and puts them in the field. The question does remain though about whether having a week 12 bye will hurt them by being out of sight and out of mind to the committee next weekend... I don't think it should but we'll see.

Northern Iowa (5-5, 4-3)
Quality wins: @Iowa St, @WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SDSU
The Panthers picked up an enormous win in Macomb and they're in position to add another enormous win against SDSU next week. If they can pull it off they would look pretty good at 6-5 with 3 high quality wins. Interestingly they don't play ISUr this year which could make for a pretty interesting comparison between the two teams if they both finish 6-5 since they would have remarkably similar resumes. I think ISUr's Northwestern win trumps UNI's Iowa St win so they neeed to hope for an exceptionally weak bubble to have any chance. Regardless, this is a dangerous team next week for an SDSU squad hoping to get a playoff bye and for any team they may potentially face should they sneak into the playoffs.


Eliminated

South Dakota (4-6, 3-4) - The Yotes put up an admirable effort in Brookings but some bad losses earlier in the year made that game the nail in the coffin that it really didn't need to be.
Missouri St (4-6, 2-5) - As we get set to close the book on MSU in 2016 they're looking more like we all thought they would... which is a bad team. Still, they're improved from last year so there is hope for them going into 2017.
Indiana St (4-7, 2-6) - The Sycs just gave up in Fargo yesterday. They're at a crossroads right now; they're either going to descend into the perennial cellar dweller they were prior to 2012 or they're going to be the competitive MVFC team that they've been since.
Southern Illinois (3-7, 1-6) - The Salukis played YSU well and their last game is against a reeling WIU team so they've still got a shot to make some noise in 2016 despite the fact that their playoff hopes were crushed weeks ago.

[dewey]

^^^^^Great work PC!

Dewey

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Nice work!!

[leatherneck177]

Nice job, think you're dead on. Interesting, I think UNI and ISUr both kind of need a WIU win to keep their wins in the"good" column.

[Bisonwinagn]

Nice job, think you're dead on. Interesting, I think UNI and ISUr both kind of need a WIU win to keep their wins in the"good" column.

I think red an UNI could both beat out WIU since they just lost to both. Mute point if UNI doesn't win.

[CappinHard]

I think red an UNI could both beat out WIU since they just lost to both. Mute point if UNI doesn't win.

Moot point. Sorry, I'm on a personal mission to relieve people of their misnomers.

[i_got_a_fever]

Eliminated

South Dakota (4-6, 3-4) - The Yotes put up an admirable effort in Brookings but some bad losses earlier in the year made that game the nail in the coffin that it really didn't need to be.

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[IBleedYellow]

I would call that Cal Poly loss for SDSU a bad loss.

[jacksfan29]

I would call that Cal Poly loss for SDSU a bad loss.

I agree. And the UNI loss to Montana looks even worse.

The thought that the top of the BSC was solid has turned out to be incorrect. EWU are good, very good. Montana and Cal Poly are a mess while UND seem to be a paper tiger. Since it is highly doubtful SDSU get a seed I'm hoping for a UND seed. I'll take a 2nd round game in Grand Forks over Fargo. I have no fear of UND.

[F'N Hawks]

I agree. And the UNI loss to Montana looks even worse.

The thought that the top of the BSC was solid has turned out to be incorrect. EWU are good, very good. Montana and Cal Poly are a mess while UND seem to be a paper tiger. Since it is highly doubtful SDSU get a seed I'm hoping for a UND seed. I'll take a 2nd round game in Grand Forks over Fargo. I have no fear of UND.

So because other Big Sky teams beat the team SDSU couldn't, that makes the league bad? xconfusedx

[Bison56]

I agree. And the UNI loss to Montana looks even worse.

The thought that the top of the BSC was solid has turned out to be incorrect. EWU are good, very good. Montana and Cal Poly are a mess while UND seem to be a paper tiger. Since it is highly doubtful SDSU get a seed I'm hoping for a UND seed. I'll take a 2nd round game in Grand Forks over Fargo. I have no fear of UND.

If they have the same refs as last Saturday I would be concerned.

[F'N Hawks]

If they have the same refs as last Saturday I would be concerned.

UND won because of the refs......Penalties: NAU 6-42. UND 6-65. Holding on UND brought back a TD in 4th quarter, offensive PI negated a 40 yard gain in 4th quarter. Those refs from out west are big time UND homers, boy.

[Hambone]

If they have the same refs as last Saturday I would be concerned.

Did you watch the whole game? There were terrible calls both ways. Overall probably favored NAU to be honest, but both teams really had some head scratchers go against them.

[Hambone]

So because other Big Sky teams beat the team SDSU couldn't, that makes the league bad? xconfusedx

Well, yeah. Lower Big Sky teams beat upper Big Sky teams - shows the conference is weak. Lower MVFC team beats upper MVFC team - shows how strong the conference is and there are no easy games, it's just a grinder. Get with the program :)

[Daytripper]

Good work Dr. Chaos....

[Professor Chaos]

I would call that Cal Poly loss for SDSU a bad loss.


I agree. And the UNI loss to Montana looks even worse.

The thought that the top of the BSC was solid has turned out to be incorrect. EWU are good, very good. Montana and Cal Poly are a mess while UND seem to be a paper tiger. Since it is highly doubtful SDSU get a seed I'm hoping for a UND seed. I'll take a 2nd round game in Grand Forks over Fargo. I have no fear of UND.
I'd agree moreso for Montana. I think Cal Poly is still a top 25 and playoff team. Montana is more iffy. After the fact I also thought about adding ISUr as a good win for the teams that beat them since they'll likely be ranked this week and very close to the playoffs if not in but I didn't.

[F'N Hawks]

I'd agree moreso for Montana. I think Cal Poly is still a top 25 and playoff team. Montana is more iffy. After the fact I also thought about adding ISUr as a good win for the teams that beat them since they'll likely be ranked this week and very close to the playoffs if not in but I didn't.

I think that if they both win, Poly is in the playoffs and Montana is out. The Big Sky is a three bid league this year.

[steelers#58]

Well, yeah. Lower Big Sky teams beat upper Big Sky teams - shows the conference is weak. Lower MVFC team beats upper MVFC team - shows how strong the conference is and there are no easy games, it's just a grinder. Get with the program :)

I thought everyone knew the MVFC is the FCS equivalent to the SEC :D