Bracketology 2.0

[FargoBison]

Not much change from last week...

UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at UNH vs 8. The Citadel
WIU at Cal Poly vs 5. Sam Houston State
EIU at UCA vs 4. Chattanooga

Wagner at Albany vs 6. James Madison
Charleston Southern at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville State
Lehigh at YSU vs 7. Richmond
San Diego at Montana vs 2. Eastern Washington

Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, NDSU, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU

At Large: The Citadel, Richmond, Montana, YSU, Albany, Cal Poly, SDSU, Villanova, WIU, Samford, UCA, UND, EIU, UNH

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I wonder if UND could outbid SDSU for a 1st round game? Jacks usually have lower attendance at the end of the year...

I still think Sammy will higher than a #5 seed if they go undefeated.

[grizband]

Interesting to follow as the season progresses. Things will certainly shake up in the coming weeks, but that doesn't look bad right now.

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[FargoBison]

I wonder if UND could outbid SDSU for a 1st round game? Jacks usually have lower attendance at the end of the year...

I still think Sammy will higher than a #5 seed if they go undefeated.

I was wondering about that but my guess is SDSU goes big with the new stadium.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I was wondering about that but my guess is SDSU goes big with the new stadium.


I bet Fiason goes in with a huge bid. 1st FCS playoff game and maybe they can get the hockey fans to come to the game.

UND is probably going to go 9-2 or 8-3 at the worst IMO. But on Thanksgiving weekend.....who knows.

[BisonTru]

North Dakota



South Dakota St
1. North Dakota St






Youngstown
8. Montana


Villanova







Eastern Ill



Western Ill
4. Chattanooga






Albany
5. Sam Houston St


Lehigh











San Diego



Cal Poly
3. Eastern Wash






The Citadel
6. Charleston S


Northern Iowa







Duquense



Richmond
7. James Madison






Central Ark
2. Jacksonville St


Samford







Last 4 Out:



New Hampshire



Southern Utah



Fordham



Wofford




Mine's the same as last week. The last 4 out changed, and UNI is moving closer to being bumped in favor of UNH. For now, I think UNI will put together a better resume than UNH.

I also think Charleston Southern should win out and with the Coastal win and the close game in Fargo they are worthy of a seed, IMO.

[JSUSoutherner]

Can we not go to EWU. Pleeeeaaaassseeee.


I would LOVE a game with Samford.

[Professor Chaos]

I think, as of right now, Stony Brook should be in over EIU and UNH.

[CSU18]

If CSU runs the table, I honestly don't see how they're not seeded and the 2nd place 2 loss SoCon team would be.

[SU DOG]

Can we not go to EWU. Pleeeeaaaassseeee.


I would LOVE a game with Samford.

Agreed. At least maybe this time it would be a game.

[ElCid]

If CSU runs the table, I honestly don't see how they're not seeded and the 2nd place 2 loss SoCon team would be.

Now with only 10 games and 1 a Div II, a seed for CSU will be a stretch, even if they win out. And winning out is not a given. The Liberty game will be tougher than people think. If the second place SOCON team wins out, regardless of who, ending with 1 FBS and 1 SOCON loss, that is way more deserving of a seed. It arguable but the overall the SOCON schedule is just a bit tougher than the Big South schedule. You can hang your hat on the close loss to NDSU, but with one less Div I game it will be tough.

[Professor Chaos]

Now with only 10 games and 1 a Div II, a seed for CSU will be a stretch, even if they win out. And winning out is not a given. The Liberty game will be tougher than people think. If the second place SOCON team wins out, regardless of who, ending with 1 FBS and 1 SOCON loss, that is way more deserving of a seed. It arguable but the overall the SOCON schedule is just a bit tougher than the Big South schedule. You can hang your hat on the close loss to NDSU, but with one less Div I game it will be tough.
CSU lost a D2 game off their schedule this past week. So I don't think that really moves the needle in terms of making it tougher for them to get seeded. I agree though, even if they run the table they need some pandemonium for 2nd place in conferences like the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON, to get seeded.

[Twentysix]

http://www.idealstencils.co.uk/ekmps/shops/7d9d5a/images/banksy-pandamonium-panda-guns-stencil-size-options-a1-xl-357-p.jpg
Straight up panda-monium

[BEAR]

North Dakota



South Dakota St
1. North Dakota St






Youngstown
8. Montana


Villanova







Eastern Ill



Western Ill
4. Chattanooga






Albany
5. Sam Houston St


Lehigh











San Diego



Cal Poly
3. Eastern Wash






The Citadel
6. Charleston S


Northern Iowa







Duquense



Richmond
7. James Madison






Central Ark
2. Jacksonville St


Samford

SLU at SFA
ACU at SHSU
UCA at McNeese
NWST at Lamar
Nicholls at HBU






Last 4 Out:



New Hampshire



Southern Utah



Fordham



Wofford




Mine's the same as last week. The last 4 out changed, and UNI is moving closer to being bumped in favor of UNH. For now, I think UNI will put together a better resume than UNH.

I also think Charleston Southern should win out and with the Coastal win and the close game in Fargo they are worthy of a seed, IMO.

I didnt think teams that played each other during the season could play each in the first round.

[ElCid]

I didnt think teams that played each other during the season could play each in the first round.

Yeah, that is a foul.

[Twentysix]

I didnt think teams that played each other during the season could play each in the first round.

I believe it only matters if it was a conference matchup.

[BEAR]

I believe it only matters if it was a conference matchup.

Makes sense.

[BisonTru]

Now with only 10 games and 1 a Div II, a seed for CSU will be a stretch, even if they win out. And winning out is not a given. The Liberty game will be tougher than people think. If the second place SOCON team wins out, regardless of who, ending with 1 FBS and 1 SOCON loss, that is way more deserving of a seed. It arguable but the overall the SOCON schedule is just a bit tougher than the Big South schedule. You can hang your hat on the close loss to NDSU, but with one less Div I game it will be tough.

People get hung up on the # of D1 wins. Your whole resume is in play and Charleston Southern would have an impressive win over Coastal, and a close loss in Fargo. If you guys don't get past Chattanooga, your most impressive win will be Samford (if you beat them). I'd easily give the nod to Chucky South.

[ElCid]

People get hung up on the # of D1 wins. Your whole resume is in play and Charleston Southern would have an impressive win over Coastal, and a close loss in Fargo. If you guys don't get past Chattanooga, your most impressive win will be Samford (if you beat them). I'd easily give the nod to Chucky South.

And a Samford win would be pretty good, as well as a win over Wofford. Massey has them at 12 and 20 right now. CSU's impressive wins would be CCU at 10 and Liberty at 33, if they beat them. Not really more impressive. Close losses are like opinions and AHs even in a season opener against the Bison. But I am shocked you have already written us off against UNC.

[BisonTru]

And a Samford win would be pretty good, as well as a win over Wofford. Massey has them at 12 and 20 right now. CSU's impressive wins would be CCU at 10 and Liberty at 33, if they beat them. Not really more impressive. Close losses are like opinions and AHs even in a season opener against the Bison. But I am shocked you have already written us off against UNC.

Forgive me bud, I don't follow the FBS that close and I really don't follow the ACC. Are they beatable? Are they bad? I really don't know, and I hope you guys beat them. If you do I will do some looking into how impressive of a win that is, and that would certainly help your bid for a seed.

BTW, if you want to use Massey, Charleston Southern is ranked as the 5th team in the country.

[Thumper 76]

Can we not go to EWU. Pleeeeaaaassseeee.


I would LOVE a game with Samford.

I think an SDSU vs EWU or EWU vs SHSU or any combination of those three would be incredible games. The lack of defense would be astounding.

Maybe not so much SHSU. The offensive fireworks would be more than worth the price of admission as much as I love defense.


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[ElCid]

Forgive me bud, I don't follow the FBS that close and I really don't follow the ACC. Are they beatable? Are they bad? I really don't know, and I hope you guys beat them. If you do I will do some looking into how impressive of a win that is, and that would certainly help your bid for a seed.

BTW, if you want to use Massey, Charleston Southern is ranked as the 5th team in the country.

CSU is there now, but I think they fall a bit as they get into the Big South schedule based upon SOS. Not horribly so, unless they lose of course.

UNC is good. If we beat them we would get a seed with 2 SOCON losses. UNC was ranked 17th in week one AP. They were the favorite for the ACC Coastal Division. However they have fell off as of late and are now simply receiving votes at 4-2. They have knocked off Illinois, Pittsburg and Florida State. As far as beatable, I am not sure. A few weeks ago, James Madison played them close for a quarter being up 21-14 at the start of the second. They pulled away and ended up beating the Dukes 56-28. I think we have a better defense than JMU, but their offense may be better. Beatable?...AGS...but probably the moons would have to align just right. All that said, I am not holding my breath and we will most likely get taken to the woodshed. But I was saying it tongue in cheek in any event. Although we did beat USC last year so they are not going to over awe us by their "FBS greatness."

[CappinHard]

The conversation will be much more relevant after Saturday, but theoretically let's say SDSU wins, and both NDSU and SDSU win out after that. Could we be looking at two MVFC seeds in the top 4? Would the loss to Cal Poly keep SDSU from a top 4 seed? Would the loss to SDSU keep NDSU from a top 4 seed? I think the former is more likely than the latter. I also think it depends on how Cal Poly finishes the season (Let's fricken go CP!) Obviously a pointless conversation if NDSU wins, but an interesting thought nonetheless and passes more time until Saturday.

[Twentysix]

The conversation will be much more relevant after Saturday, but theoretically let's say SDSU wins, and both NDSU and SDSU win out after that. Could we be looking at two MVFC seeds in the top 4? Would the loss to Cal Poly keep SDSU from a top 4 seed? Would the loss to SDSU keep NDSU from a top 4 seed? I think the former is more likely than the latter. I also think it depends on how Cal Poly finishes the season (Let's fricken go CP!) Obviously a pointless conversation if NDSU wins, but an interesting thought nonetheless and passes more time until Saturday.

IMO NDSU will have one of the top seeds even with a loss or two.

[Professor Chaos]

The conversation will be much more relevant after Saturday, but theoretically let's say SDSU wins, and both NDSU and SDSU win out after that. Could we be looking at two MVFC seeds in the top 4? Would the loss to Cal Poly keep SDSU from a top 4 seed? Would the loss to SDSU keep NDSU from a top 4 seed? I think the former is more likely than the latter. I also think it depends on how Cal Poly finishes the season (Let's fricken go CP!) Obviously a pointless conversation if NDSU wins, but an interesting thought nonetheless and passes more time until Saturday.
The MVFC had 2 seeds in the top 3 last year and would've had 3 in the top 5 IMO without you-know-who's "Macomb debacle" in week 12. I think the MVFC (along with the CAA, Big Sky, and SOCON) can definitely get 2 seeds this year. 2 of those conferences almost have to get 2 seeds with JSU and SHSU rounding it out. CSU could also crash the party but after that there's really no seed candidates outside the top 4 conferences (at least none that wouldn't replace the aforementioned 3 teams).

[veinup]

regionalization sucks so much.

[Bisonator]

regionalization sucks so much.

This. I'm so sick of seeing SDSU in the PO's I would welcome UND.

[katstrapper]

I wonder if UND could outbid SDSU for a 1st round game? Jacks usually have lower attendance at the end of the year...

I still think Sammy will higher than a #5 seed if they go undefeated.


I think SHSU has a legitimate chance to finish undefeated and will garner a top 3 seed at the very least. The schedule is what it is. Sam Houston had New Mexico signed up for this year and they backed out at last minute so Athletic Dept staff had to scramble for another game and OK-Panhandle State was the only one that grabbed at the chance. The 2016 edition of the Kat offense is pretty dynamic now that they have settled on a starting QB and the depth is crazy. The defense is improving, but the secondary is young.

I am anxious to see how much better this team is by the end of the year. Two tests remain for the season against McNeese and UCA.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

CSU is there now, but I think they fall a bit as they get into the Big South schedule based upon SOS. Not horribly so, unless they lose of course.

UNC is good. If we beat them we would get a seed with 2 SOCON losses. UNC was ranked 17th in week one AP. They were the favorite for the ACC Coastal Division. However they have fell off as of late and are now simply receiving votes at 4-2. They have knocked off Illinois, Pittsburg and Florida State. As far as beatable, I am not sure. A few weeks ago, James Madison played them close for a quarter being up 21-14 at the start of the second. They pulled away and ended up beating the Dukes 56-28. I think we have a better defense than JMU, but their offense may be better. Beatable?...AGS...but probably the moons would have to align just right. All that said, I am not holding my breath and we will most likely get taken to the woodshed. But I was saying it tongue in cheek in any event. Although we did beat USC last year so they are not going to over awe us by their "FBS greatness."

You need some weather like what Virginia Tech got this past weekend. Their QB and WRs will see action on Sundays in the coming years. However, a hurricane (and/or its remnants) totally negates that threat.

UNC has a horrible defense as well. JMU missed many 3rd and shorts that had they not gotten "cute" playcalling and stuck with the run, I think the score would have been closer. But man did they have the long ball working for them like champs that day! I agree Citadel's defense is better right now, but it'll be a major upset to take down the Tarheels.

Good luck!!

[kalm]

North Dakota



South Dakota St
1. North Dakota St






Youngstown
8. Montana


Villanova







Eastern Ill



Western Ill
4. Chattanooga






Albany
5. Sam Houston St


Lehigh











San Diego



Cal Poly
3. Eastern Wash






The Citadel
6. Charleston S


Northern Iowa







Duquense



Richmond
7. James Madison






Central Ark
2. Jacksonville St


Samford







Last 4 Out:



New Hampshire



Southern Utah



Fordham



Wofford




Mine's the same as last week. The last 4 out changed, and UNI is moving closer to being bumped in favor of UNH. For now, I think UNI will put together a better resume than UNH.

I also think Charleston Southern should win out and with the Coastal win and the close game in Fargo they are worthy of a seed, IMO.

Assuming you'd have EWU at 10-1 as a 3 they still might have a better resume than an 11-0 JSU.

[Daytripper]

I think SHSU has a legitimate chance to finish undefeated and will garner a top 3 seed at the very least. The schedule is what it is. Sam Houston had New Mexico signed up for this year and they backed out at last minute so Athletic Dept staff had to scramble for another game and OK-Panhandle State was the only one that grabbed at the chance. The 2016 edition of the Kat offense is pretty dynamic now that they have settled on a starting QB and the depth is crazy. The defense is improving, but the secondary is young.

I am anxious to see how much better this team is by the end of the year. Two tests remain for the season against McNeese and UCA.


Don't sleep on Nicholls.

[GetEmGriz]

Assuming you'd have EWU at 10-1 as a 3 they still might have a better resume than an 11-0 JSU.

I'd imagine that a 10-1 EWU team would definitely get the 2 seed over Jacksonville State (Montana would also most likely get the 2 or 3 seed too if they're the ones instead of EWU to go 10-1).

[nevadagriz]

Not much change from last week...

UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at UNH vs 8. The Citadel
WIU at Cal Poly vs 5. Sam Houston State
EIU at UCA vs 4. Chattanooga

Wagner at Albany vs 6. James Madison
Charleston Southern at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville State
Lehigh at YSU vs 7. Richmond
San Diego at Montana vs 2. Eastern Washington

Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, NDSU, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU

At Large: The Citadel, Richmond, Montana, YSU, Albany, Cal Poly, SDSU, Villanova, WIU, Samford, UCA, UND, EIU, UNH



I assume this prediction has Montana losing Two more games? I would guess you think EWU and who else?
If not don't you think a two loss Montana with only losses being a 1pt loss to Poly and the other to EWU would get them a top 8 seed?
Just curious you guys thoughts on this.

[CockyGeek]

I would love to see Samford again. I know they miss their yearly beat downs.

[BisonTru]

I assume this prediction has Montana losing Two more games? I would guess you think EWU and who else?
If not don't you think a two loss Montana with only losses being a 1pt loss to Poly and the other to EWU would get them a top 8 seed?
Just curious you guys thoughts on this.

You could be battling a 9-2 team from both or either the CAA and the SoCon. There's also a very small chance that the MVFC could produce a second 9-2 team as well. Also, Charleston Southern is very likely to be undefeated vs. the FCS, with a transitional FCS/FBS win. It's not a slam dunk you get a seed. I had you guys seeded, and it seems likely if that plays out you will be. It would also help if you do lose to EWU that the Griz keep it close.

[mamberso]

Assuming you'd have EWU at 10-1 as a 3 they still might have a better resume than an 11-0 JSU.

If JSU runs the table, they would be 10-1 (loss at LSU). If EWU and JSU both win out, the Eagles deserve the higher seed based on strength of schedule.

[FargoBison]

I assume this prediction has Montana losing Two more games? I would guess you think EWU and who else?
If not don't you think a two loss Montana with only losses being a 1pt loss to Poly and the other to EWU would get them a top 8 seed?
Just curious you guys thoughts on this.

I think there is a chance that could happen but this bracket is based more on if the season ended today. CSU and Montana would be an interesting discussion though if both have two losses.

[Twentysix]

You could be battling a 9-2 team from both or either the CAA and the SoCon. There's also a very small chance that the MVFC could produce a second 9-2 team as well. Also, Charleston Southern is very likely to be undefeated vs. the FCS, with a transitional FCS/FBS win. It's not a slam dunk you get a seed. I had you guys seeded, and it seems likely if that plays out you will be. It would also help if you do lose to EWU that the Griz keep it close.

Uhh Charelston Southern lost its first FCS game of the year vs NDSU.

[X-Factor]

Uhh Charelston Southern lost its first FCS game of the year vs NDSU.

Come on now, are the Bison REALLY FCS ? ;)

[BEAR]

Come on now, are the Bison REALLY FCS ? ;)

Yes.

[SU DOG]

I would love to see Samford again. I know they miss their yearly beat downs.

Samford is a much improved program over the old OVC days. We are at least much more competitive than then or the multi-injured team that limped into the 2013 Playoffs. I'm not sure that ANYBODY can beat the outstanding team you have this year. However, a yearly one sided, non-competitive beat down like the old days? NOPE, wouldn't happen. And if you say why not schedule, you are preaching to the choir.

[BisonTru]

Uhh Charelston Southern lost its first FCS game of the year vs NDSU.

Oops forgot about that one. Still can't fault them much for that game, IMO.

[CockyGeek]

Samford is a much improved program over the old OVC days. We are at least much more competitive than then or the multi-injured team that limped into the 2013 Playoffs. I'm not sure that ANYBODY can beat the outstanding team you have this year. However, a yearly one sided, non-competitive beat down like the old days? NOPE, wouldn't happen. And if you say why not schedule, you are preaching to the choir.

Our rumor is that Samford won't schedule us because of something Jack Crowe did years ago.

[flyrod]

Our rumor is that Samford won't schedule us because of something Jack Crowe did years ago.

Thought his name was SAMCRO

SOA !

[I-AA Fan]

I would like to see someone lay average attendance (particularly % of capacity) up against these teams. This is where the NCAA is looking to determine home games, seeds and some bids as well.

[Thumper 76]

You could be battling a 9-2 team from both or either the CAA and the SoCon. There's also a very small chance that the MVFC could produce a second 9-2 team as well. Also, Charleston Southern is very likely to be undefeated vs. the FCS, with a transitional FCS/FBS win. It's not a slam dunk you get a seed. I had you guys seeded, and it seems likely if that plays out you will be. It would also help if you do lose to EWU that the Griz keep it close.

The MVFC could produce three, as small of a chance as that is. SDSU upsets the bison and runs the table, YSU loses to SDSU and upsets the bison and wins their other games, and NDSU wins all except for YSU and SDSU. That would be an entertaining scenario.


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[Professor Chaos]

I would like to see someone lay average attendance (particularly % of capacity) up against these teams. This is where the NCAA is looking to determine home games, seeds and some bids as well.
I don't think it plays much of a role in the seeds. Last year Chuck South got seeded #8 over teams like Montana, SDSU, UNI, and Chattanooga. ISUr also got the #2 seed over NDSU (who was #3). For unseeded teams it's completely based on bids.

[Grizalltheway]

I don't think it plays much of a role in the seeds. Last year Chuck South got seeded #8 over teams like Montana, SDSU, UNI, and Chattanooga. ISUr also got the #2 seed over NDSU (who was #3). For unseeded teams it's completely based on bids.

I agree with your premise, but Chuck South was also 9-2 with 2 FBS losses last year, whereas we were 7-4 with some head scratching losses. If both teams had similar resumes I think we'd get the nod for a seed, though.

[kalm]

I don't think it plays much of a role in the seeds. Last year Chuck South got seeded #8 over teams like Montana, SDSU, UNI, and Chattanooga. ISUr also got the #2 seed over NDSU (who was #3). For unseeded teams it's completely based on bids.

The committee chair was adamant last year that attendance didn't influence seeds.

[walliver]

I would like to see someone lay average attendance (particularly % of capacity) up against these teams. This is where the NCAA is looking to determine home games, seeds and some bids as well.

Non-seeded home games are determined by cash and nothing else.

[BisonTru]

Non-seeded home games are determined by cash and nothing else.

Not quite. There is a guarantee in the bids that the potential host will guarantee towards the NCAA, but in the bid they also present relevant attendance and ticket information. The NCAA gets either the guarantee or 75% of the ticket receipts whichever is higher.

[Twentysix]

Not quite. There is a guarantee in the bids that the potential host will guarantee towards the NCAA, but in the bid they also present relevant attendance and ticket information. The NCAA gets either the guarantee or 75% of the ticket receipts whichever is higher.

which boils down to cash. (responding to a different post) % capacity has nothing to do with it though. If you had a hypothetical FCS team that would gurantee the money for 30,000 tickets (and infact got 30,000 to show up) to see the game in a 100,000 seat stadium, the NCAA would give no ****s that the stadium is only 30% full. They will take the money and run.

[ST_Lawson]

The MVFC could produce three, as small of a chance as that is. SDSU upsets the bison and runs the table, YSU loses to SDSU and upsets the bison and wins their other games, and NDSU wins all except for YSU and SDSU. That would be an entertaining scenario.


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Not saying it's all that likely, but we could theoretically be in on that scenario as well. Our only loss is SDSU, we don't play YSU this season, and we have NDSU at home. Otherwise, we have MSU, USD, ISUr, UNI and SIU....all of those are what I'd consider "winnable" games. If we lose to NDSU but win the rest, we're at 9-2.

So....

SDSU beats NDSU and wins out, they're 9-2
YSU loses to SDSU, beats NDSU and wins the rest, they're 9-2
NDSU loses to YSU and SDSU and wins the rest, they're 9-2
WIU loses to NDSU and wins the rest, we're 9-2

Actually, out of all of those, I think that us finishing 9-2 is more likely than NDSU losing to YSU and SDSU...they might drop one, but probably not both, and that would make NDSU 10-1 and whomever they do end up beating out of those two would be 8-3 (assuming everything else plays out as described). All would be playoff teams, but it'd be a little less of a clusterf*** at the top of the conference.

EDIT - a bit more...
I think that NDSU losing to SDSU is a bit more likely than them losing to YSU, due to the strengths/weaknesses of each team. Everything else plays out as described and the top of the conference is:
1. NDSU - 10-1
2. SDSU - 9-2
3. WIU - 9-2 (WIU below SDSU due to Jackrabbits winning head-to-head)
4. YSU - 8-3

[Gangtackle11]

My attempt at this. I took Massey predictions for entire season as a guide.

North Dakota 9-2/San Diego 9-1 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

SDSU 7-4/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4

[Thumper 76]

My attempt at this. I took Massey predictions for entire season as a guide.

North Dakota 9-2/San Diego 9-1 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

SDSU 7-4/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4

I doubt they match up SDSU and Poly in a rematch with UND so close to SDSU.


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[BisonTru]

My attempt at this. I took Massey predictions for entire season as a guide.

North Dakota 9-2/San Diego 9-1 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

SDSU 7-4/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4

I use Massey as well to predict the regular season, but I use estimated wins and losses. For example NDSU is favored in every game, but massey predicts more likely than not NDSU will end the season with a loss along the way, so I assume 10-1 vs. 11-0.

Either way to each their own. I do think 6-5 UNI with wins over SDSU and WIU to end the season (as predicted using your method) would be in.

[BisonTru]

I doubt they match up SDSU and Poly in a rematch with UND so close to SDSU.


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Looking at the rules, another thing they have changed is that the committee will try to seperate teams that played in the OOC if it doesn't create an extra plane trip. So, I think it's unlikely that SDSU and Cal Poly get matched up since it's a flight either way.

SDSU/UND @ NDSU looks extremely likely tho.

[Gangtackle11]

Looking at the rules, another thing they have changed is that the committee will try to seperate teams that played in the OOC if it doesn't create an extra plane trip. So, I think it's unlikely that SDSU and Cal Poly get matched up since it's a flight either way.

SDSU/UND @ NDSU looks extremely likely tho.

Probably so.

[Professor Chaos]

My attempt at this. I took Massey predictions for entire season as a guide.

North Dakota 9-2/San Diego 9-1 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

SDSU 7-4/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4
I would love to see this seeding just to see the SHSU fans' heads explode xlolx

[Gangtackle11]

I would love to see this seeding just to see the SHSU fans' heads explode xlolx
All teams in front of them are projected 1 loss teams to FBS programs. FCS undefeated by projections.

[Katfan]

All teams in front of them are projected 1 loss teams to FBS programs. FCS undefeated by projections.
Why, I'd be fine with playing Charlestown Southern in the semis in Huntsville.

[Gangtackle11]

Why, I'd be fine with playing Charlestown Southern in the semis in Huntsville.

My bracket would most likely send you to the Big Red field of Eastern Washington 1st.

[GetEmGriz]

My attempt at this. I took Massey predictions for entire season as a guide.

North Dakota 9-2/San Diego 9-1 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

SDSU 7-4/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4

Not bad. But I think there is a rule that conference teams who faced each other during the regular season are unable to meet in the first round, which would be what would happen with Montana/Cal Poly in this scenario. But overall I like your layout.

[BisonTru]

Not bad. But I think there is a rule that conference teams who faced each other during the regular season are unable to meet in the first round, which would be what would happen with Montana/Cal Poly in this scenario. But overall I like your layout.

That's a second round match-up.

[Gangtackle11]

Probably makes sense to flip flop San Diego & SDSU for regionalization sake.

North Dakota 9-2/SDSU 7-4 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

San Diego 9-1/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Western Illinois 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

The Citadel/Duquesne vs. 5. Villanova or JMU 10-1

Richmond 7-4/Samford 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

Albany 8-3/Lehigh 9-2 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

Villanova or JMU 9-2/Wofford 8-3 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Stephen F. Austin 7-4

[F'N Hawks]

San Diego and Poly already played this year.

[Professor Chaos]

San Diego and Poly already played this year.
I'm pretty sure the rule is that two conference teams can't play a regular season rematch if it's both teams' first playoff game. So, hypothetically if both made the playoffs and were unseeded, UND could play USD in the first round.

I agree that the rule should be no rematches of any kind in the first round (first two rounds ideally) but it's not an easy thing to change.

[F'N Hawks]

I'm pretty sure the rule is that two conference teams can't play a regular season rematch if it's both teams' first playoff game. So, hypothetically if both made the playoffs and were unseeded, UND could play USD in the first round.

I agree that the rule should be no rematches of any kind in the first round (first two rounds ideally) but it's not an easy thing to change.

Ok. Didn't know that.

[Gangtackle11]

I've seen Villanova-Lehigh as a 1st round rematch on websites. They try to avoid them, but will do it to keep travel costs down. In conference rematches are avoided though.

At least that's my understanding.

[kab]

There will be some upsets by year end and somehow the NCAA will screw it up and let a team in that doesn't deserve to be there
make sure you have a quality loss or two on your record

[Katfan]

My bracket would most likely send you to the Big Red field of Eastern Washington 1st.
That's ok too. Our last two trips there ended well, but I have to say orange uniforms against the red turf doesn't look to good on tv

[dudeitsaid]

That's ok too. Our last two trips there ended well, but I have to say orange uniforms against the red turf doesn't look to good on tv

You've only had two games on the red...one of them did not end well, the other one was dang close to being the biggest comeback in FCS playoff history. You guys hung on to it in the end, but it came down to the wire in the semifinal.

However, I would say that yes, your two playoff games in Cheney (one long before the red field was laid down) ended well for SHSU.

[Katfan]

You've only had two games on the red...one of them did not end well, the other one was dang close to being the biggest comeback in FCS playoff history. You guys hung on to it in the end, but it came down to the wire in the semifinal.

However, I would say that yes, your two playoff games in Cheney (one long before the red field was laid down) ended well for SHSU.
The second was Vernon Adams coming out party, good thing he didn't start that game.

[Gangtackle11]

Upon further review of my bracket it appears I skipped UNH @ 8-3 projected record. Looks like they will replace Wofford (7-3) projected. I moved the brackets around to get better regional matchups also. Work in progress!!

Lots of 8+ win teams making it tough on the 6-7 win teams with quality schedules to get in. 3 non-conference repeat matchups in 1st round. It's not easy!!

North Dakota 9-2/SDSU 7-4 vs. 1. NDSU 11-0

San Diego 9-1/Cal Poly 8-3 vs. 8. Montana 9-2

Samford 8-3/UCA 8-3 vs. 4. Chattanooga 10-1

Lehigh 9-2/UNH 8-3 vs. 5. Villanova 10-1

Eastern Illinois 8-3/Western Illinois 8-3 vs. 3. Eastern Washington 10-1

Richmond 8-3/Youngstown St. 8-3 vs. 6. Sam Houston State 11-0

JMU 9-2/Albany 8-3 vs. 2. Jacksonville State 10-1

The Citadel 8-3/Duquesne 9-2 vs. 7. Charleston Southern 8-2

1st Four out:
UNI 6-5 (Beat YSU & they flip flop spots)
Stony Brook 7-4
Southern Utah 7-4
Wofford 8-3 (win over JC Smith gives them 7)

[F'N Hawks]

I believe BisonTru pointed out last night that the committee is going to try and avoid First Round non-conference rematches, as well as the usual conference rematches.

However, the "as long as it doesn't create an additional flight" part might make them happen - for example San Diego vs. Poly.

[Gangtackle11]

I believe BisonTru pointed out last night that the committee is going to try and avoid First Round non-conference rematches, as well as the usual conference rematches.

However, the "as long as it doesn't create an additional flight" part might make them happen - for example San Diego vs. Poly.

Yep, but to avoid those matchups will mean travel via air with the teams that I included. It will change over the weeks. I'm sure.

[Gangtackle11]

My updated bracket after yesterday's games. The seeds are based on creating geographical matchups more than how I think they will be ranked.

North Dakota/SDSU vs. #1 NDSU

Cal Poly/San Diego vs. #8 Montana

UCA/JMU vs. #4 Eastern Washington

Eastern Illinois/Western Illinois vs. #5 Sam Houston State



Samford/Charleston So. vs. #3 The Citadel

Lehigh/Albany vs. #6 Richmond

Villanova/Duquesne vs. #7 Youngstown State

Chattanooga/UNH vs. #2 Jacksonville State

[Milktruck74]

My updated bracket after yesterday's games. The seeds are based on creating geographical matchups more than how I think they will be ranked.

North Dakota/SDSU vs. #1 NDSU

Cal Poly/San Diego vs. #8 Montana

UCA/JMU vs. #4 Eastern Washington

Eastern Illinois/Western Illinois vs. #5 Sam Houston State



Samford/Charleston So. vs. #3 The Citadel

Lehigh/Albany vs. #6 Richmond

Villanova/Duquesne vs. #7 Youngstown State

Chattanooga/UNH vs. #2 Jacksonville State

When NDSU loses at home to a 10-15th ranked team and maintains their #1 seed....Chattanooga loses by less a TD on the road to a solid 5-8 and drops out of the seeds???? I'm not saying the Mocs deserve to be seeded and I'm not saying NDSU should be one of the seeded teams....I am saying having them at #1 is too high.

[Gangtackle11]

When NDSU loses at home to a 10-15th ranked team and maintains their #1 seed....Chattanooga loses by less a TD on the road to a solid 5-8 and drops out of the seeds???? I'm not saying the Mocs deserve to be seeded and I'm not saying NDSU should be one of the seeded teams....I am saying having them at #1 is too high.

Just my shot at this. Has a lot to do with geographical location than talent. Chatty resides in a crowded southern part of the country where as of today I can make a case that others are equally or more deserving. A lot of football to be played to prove me and all of us wrong.

[ElCid]

When NDSU loses at home to a 10-15th ranked team and maintains their #1 seed....Chattanooga loses by less a TD on the road to a solid 5-8 and drops out of the seeds???? I'm not saying the Mocs deserve to be seeded and I'm not saying NDSU should be one of the seeded teams....I am saying having them at #1 is too high.

22-14...go back to bed.

[Gangtackle11]

I wasn't the only one btw:

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

[mamberso]

I wasn't the only one btw:

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

The left side of that bracket is pretty brutal. EWU v. SDSU/Poly in the 2nd round? That's tough. If the bracket looks like this, JSU could have the exact same path to Frisco as last season.

[Lehigh'98]

The left side of that bracket is pretty brutal. EWU v. SDSU/Poly in the 2nd round? That's tough. If the bracket looks like this, JSU could have the exact same path to Frisco as last season.

Tougher bracket this year on that side. Chatty, Cit & Chuck South are all legitimate threats to knock off JSU in the early rounds.

[ST_Lawson]

SDSU beats NDSU and wins out, they're 9-2
YSU loses to SDSU, beats NDSU and wins the rest, they're 9-2
NDSU loses to YSU and SDSU and wins the rest, they're 9-2
WIU loses to NDSU and wins the rest, we're 9-2

Just for reference, since SDSU beat NDSU and both YSU and WIU won, this scenario is still theoretically possible. Not sure how likely YSU winning at NDSU is if they're on their third-string QB, or how likely it is that Western will win the rest of our games after the NDSU one this next Saturday, but it's technically possible that SDSU, YSU, NDSU, and WIU would all finish 9-2 overall.
In this scenario, in the conference standings it'd be:
SDSU at 8-0
YSU at 7-1
NDSU at 6-2
WIU at 6-2 (but behind NDSU due to head-to-head result)