Bracketology 1.0

[FargoBison]

Still really early for this but here is my take...


UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at WIU vs 8. The Citadel
UCA at Cal Poly vs 5. Sam Houston State
EIU at UNI vs 4. Chattanooga


Wagner at Albany vs 6. James Madison
Charleston Southern at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville State
Lehigh at YSU vs 7. Richmond
San Diego at Montana vs 2. Eastern Washington


Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, NDSU, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU


At Large: The Citadel, Richmond, Montana, YSU, Albany, UNI, Cal Poly, SDSU, Villanova, WIU, Samford, UCA, EIU, UND

[Professor Chaos]

Nice job, I think that's a pretty reasonable take on where things stand as of now. I think the OVC may struggle to get a 2nd bid. EIU looks really shaky right now and their win over Illinois St isn't looking as good as it did at the time. After them Tennessee St may have a shot but they've played no one (and won't outside of Vandy and EIU - they don't play JSU this year). I also think there's no way the MVFC will have 5 bids by season's end. That should allow another Big Sky/SOCON/CAA team or two to slide in.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh @ YSU would be awesome! My dream OOC matchup would become a reality! A loooong ways to go though....

[FargoBison]

Nice job, I think that's a pretty reasonable take on where things stand as of now. I think the OVC may struggle to get a 2nd bid. EIU looks really shaky right now and their win over Illinois St isn't looking as good as it did at the time. After them Tennessee St may have a shot but they've played no one (and won't outside of Vandy and EIU - they don't play JSU this year). I also think there's no way the MVFC will have 5 bids by season's end. That should allow another Big Sky/SOCON/CAA team or two to slide in.

I agree that the MVFC will probably get less than 5, just hard to narrow it down right now. EIU was very much the bubble team, thought about Tenn State but they have beaten nobody as of yet.

[JSUSoutherner]

I agree that the MVFC will probably get less than 5, just hard to narrow it down right now. EIU was very much the bubble team, thought about Tenn State but they have beaten nobody as of yet.
Well if they can win just 4 more OVC games they will be 8-3 with one loss being to an SEC team. They have the benefit of not having to play us this season.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Undefeated SHSU or Chatty will be a #2 over EWU, IMO....or #1 seeds if NDSU loses.

[Milktruck74]

Undefeated SHSU or Chatty will be a #2 over EWU, IMO....or #1 seeds if NDSU loses.


The rest of the FCS isn't holding their breath for this....You guy have let a few get close, but you always manage to pull out the W....

[BisonFan02]

The rest of the FCS isn't holding their breath for this....You guy have let a few get close, but you always manage to pull out the W....

True....but a MVFC loss is coming. I would be shocked if this team ran the table in conference play. Have done it only once in the MVFC....and that was 2013, which some Bison fans would argue is the GOAT.

[ElCid]

I hate to say it but there is probably no way we get a seed without going 10-1. Obviously depends on the rest of the field. That would include a win over UTC or UNC (not holding my breath after watching UNC play twice now). I think it will be UTC or us, whoever wins head to head OR maybe both of us if the loser of the head to head wins their FBS in November. We got UNC, UTC has Alabama. Hmm, survey says......:( But that is a long off and we could blow it many times until then. One week at a time.

[kalm]

Undefeated SHSU or Chatty will be a #2 over EWU, IMO....or #1 seeds if NDSU loses.

Maybe but neither would deserve it based on resume even with one less loss.

[FargoBison]

If Chatty is undefeated they would have beaten Bama, not happening. Last year the committee showed with McNeese that high seeds aren't just handed out for going undefeated, so SHSU's isn't a slam dunk. Calling their non-conference slate trash would be an insult to trash.

[Professor Chaos]

If Chatty is undefeated they would have beaten Bama, not happening. Last year the committee showed with McNeese that high seeds aren't just handed out for going undefeated, so SHSU's isn't a slam dunk. Calling their non-conference slate trash would be an insult to trash.
And on top of that EWU has a fantastic non-conference resume. A decent FBS win along with a really good FCS win and a very respectable loss (like it or not "quality losses" do appear to mean something to the committee). I think EWU at 9-2 (7-1) with the Big Sky autobid is seeded over an 11-0 SHSU. If they're up against a 10-1 Chatty though there's probably a lot more variables that would come into play to make that call.

[ElCid]

And on top of that EWU has a fantastic non-conference resume. A decent FBS win along with a really good FCS win and a very respectable loss (like it or not "quality losses" do appear to mean something to the committee). I think EWU at 9-2 (7-1) with the Big Sky autobid is seeded over an 11-0 SHSU. If they're up against a 10-1 Chatty though there's probably a lot more variables that would come into play to make that call.

With the way some of the games have gone in the Big Sky, if EWU goes 7-1 that might say something special. Between the CAA and Big sky and even the MVFC, it has been a weird season so far. Looks like their is a good amount of parity lately. We have been seeing it in the SOCON with a ridiculously large amount of close games over the last 2 years (50% were decided by 1 score). A lot ball games to go yet, but I guess it is fun to speculate.

[mmiller_34]

UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU

**** that.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Still really early for this but here is my take...


UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at WIU vs 8. The Citadel
UCA at Cal Poly vs 5. Sam Houston State
EIU at UNI vs 4. Chattanooga


Wagner at Albany vs 6. James Madison
Charleston Southern at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville State
Lehigh at YSU vs 7. Richmond
San Diego at Montana vs 2. Eastern Washington


Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, NDSU, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU


At Large: The Citadel, Richmond, Montana, YSU, Albany, UNI, Cal Poly, SDSU, Villanova, WIU, Samford, UCA, EIU, UND

I think you made a great stab at it.

I can definitely see a path that gets the CAA 5 bids, whether deserved or not, especially considering the pedestrian UNH schedule.

[JSUSoutherner]

Personally I think the #2 seed is a toss up between us an EWU with the edge going to the Eagles right now. Yes, I know they beat Washington State. That's why I gave them the edge.

Sam Houston's schedule is too trash (Remember, as FargoBison pointed out, McNeese was undefeated last year and was only seeded at 4) and Chatty will get completely bent over by Bama. Outside of that their only big game is El Cid and I don't think it's enough to get above us with the Coastal win and the complete bloodbath in Lynchburg provided we blow the OVC out again.

Personally, I'm hoping EWU drops a game.

[Milktruck74]

I will happily admit that Chattanooga has a cupcake OOC schedule (aside from BAMA), but to say a 10-1 Chattanooga (with a loss only to the eventual FBS Champ) hasn't done anything.....C'mon!!!! Massey has the SoCon as the #2 conference in FCS. So, making it through 8 games unscathed is not an easy feat. If we were playing in mid to lower tier conference like the OVC (I had too Southerner),maybe. But a 10-1 Mocs Team will deserve a top 4 seed!!!

[PantherRob82]

I laughed at Nova@WIU. Western went to Dayton last year....

[Milktruck74]

Wow the CAA??? Picking up one from the SoCon and One from MVFC this week. I think the SoCon is probably a 3 (not a 4) team league, MVF is probably a 5 (not a 6) team league....but is the CAA a 5 team league???? The CAA probably should be a 3 team league, but they couldn't decide which 3 to include. And can EIU hold on to that second spot int he OVC or is that fading too?? lots of questions that should be answered in the next 3 weeks!!!

[JSUSoutherner]

I will happily admit that Chattanooga has a cupcake OOC schedule (aside from BAMA), but to say a 10-1 Chattanooga (with a loss only to the eventual FBS Champ) hasn't done anything.....C'mon!!!! Massey has the SoCon as the #2 conference in FCS. So, making it through 8 games unscathed is not an easy feat. If we were playing in mid to lower tier conference like the OVC (I had too Southerner),maybe. But a 10-1 Mocs Team will deserve a top 4 seed!!!
Oh it's fine. I agree. OVC definitely is not what the SoCon is right now.

It's a shame that despite that you still couldn't win our mid to lower tier conference though. :D

[Grizalltheway]

And on top of that EWU has a fantastic non-conference resume. A decent FBS win along with a really good FCS win and a very respectable loss (like it or not "quality losses" do appear to mean something to the committee). I think EWU at 9-2 (7-1) with the Big Sky autobid is seeded over an 11-0 SHSU. If they're up against a 10-1 Chatty though there's probably a lot more variables that would come into play to make that call.

Who are you predicting for their one conference loss? If it's Montana and we run the rest of our conference slate (entirely possible), the auto bid would go to us by virtue of head to head.

[The_Raven]

It all depends on if SHSU continues to win big. If they do then they grab the number 2 seed. They have had way too much success within the playoffs the past five years to be looked over. I know that their non conference schedule isn't as strong but they have been a proven contender as of late.

[Nodak78]

Who are you predicting for their one conference loss? If it's Montana and we run the rest of our conference slate (entirely possible), the auto bid would go to us by virtue of head to head.

If Montana runs the table and beat EWU AND. UND runs the table wins the conference Title outright and autobid.

[Grizalltheway]

If Montana runs the table and beat EWU AND. UND runs the table wins the conference Title outright and autobid.

Yes, that is also a possibility.

[tomq04]

Who are you predicting for their one conference loss? If it's Montana and we run the rest of our conference slate (entirely possible), the auto bid would go to us by virtue of head to head.

The Griz have the best chance, with PSU being 2nd. Unfortunately for the Griz they have to play on the Inferno, and PSU gives us all we can handle year in and out and we are playing in Portland this year. Those are the only 2 "statistically likely" losses. That said, EWU is good for a head scratching loss every year...but I think this is the best team since 2010 (possibly better).

[Daytripper]

If Chatty is undefeated they would have beaten Bama, not happening. Last year the committee showed with McNeese that high seeds aren't just handed out for going undefeated, so SHSU's isn't a slam dunk. Calling their non-conference slate trash would be an insult to trash.

Unfortunately, I agree. If EWU runs the table the rest of the way and SHSU goes undefeated, EWU deserves the higher seed.

[kalm]

It all depends on if SHSU continues to win big. If they do then they grab the number 2 seed. They have had way too much success within the playoffs the past five years to be looked over. I know that their non conference schedule isn't as strong but they have been a proven contender as of late.

They should win big against a DII, SWAC, and middle of the road conference.

Recent playoff success should also have little to do with it.

[Milktruck74]

Guy on my team board just said, "The Pioneers Autobid is like the Free Space in Bingo." I shot coffee out of my nose!!! Hahaha.

[The_Raven]

They should win big against a DII, SWAC, and middle of the road conference.

Recent playoff success should also have little to do with it.

I agree that's why they need to win big.. Lol

And yes as I see what you are saying, but that is just not the case. Past history a lot of the times plays a major role in seeding... And that's at ANY level

[Nickels]

AGSers are going to sorely disappointed when an undefeated SHSU team grabs the second seed. Cant wait to hear the bitching.

[JSUSoutherner]

What would be REALLY interesting is if NDSU drops a game.

What then?

[Nickels]

What would be REALLY interesting is if NDSU drops a game.

What then?
IMO they'll have to lose 2 to give up the #1 seed.

[JSUSoutherner]

IMO they'll have to lose 2 to give up the #1 seed.
You're probably right but it would definitely make the discussion more interesting.

[The_Raven]

What would be REALLY interesting is if NDSU drops a game.

What then?


I would be beside myself if they dropped in the rankings lol. I guess it would all be up to who they lost to.

[The_Raven]

AGSers are going to sorely disappointed when an undefeated SHSU team grabs the second seed. Cant wait to hear the bitching.


LOL, I'm sure there will be a lot of it.

[kalm]

LOL, I'm sure there will be a lot of it.

But do either of you think they should in that scenario?

[kalm]

I agree that's why they need to win big.. Lol

And yes as I see what you are saying, but that is just not the case. Past history a lot of the times plays a major role in seeding... And that's at ANY level

It depends how far you want to go back. CSU and Colgate played well in the playoffs last year. EWU has been to 3 semis simce 2010. Or if you want to the most crescent SHSU crapped the bed in their last playoff outing so...

[Grizalltheway]

The Griz have the best chance, with PSU being 2nd. Unfortunately for the Griz they have to play on the Inferno, and PSU gives us all we can handle year in and out and we are playing in Portland this year. Those are the only 2 "statistically likely" losses. That said, EWU is good for a head scratching loss every year...but I think this is the best team since 2010 (possibly better).

We've certainly had our troubles on Aunt Flo's field, but it will be interesting to see if Stitt can get us off the schneid. The offense really started to fire on all cylinders yesterday.

[tomq04]

We've certainly had our troubles on Aunt Flo's field, but it will be interesting to see if Stitt can get us off the schneid. The offense really started to fire on all cylinders yesterday.
Strangely our Defense has been firing on all cylinders about 2 quarters / game. Better than the past!

[Daytripper]

What would be REALLY interesting is if NDSU drops a game.

What then?

I think they lose to UNI. If EWU runs the table and beats Montana and NDSU only has one loss, it will be interesting to see how the committee decides the #1 seed considering NDSU's win over EWU. Will it be "what have you done for me lately" or one beat the other? NDSU will have to lose two and EWU will have to lose again for SHSU to get a top 2 seed.

[Katfan]

IMO they'll have to lose 2 to give up the #1 seed.
I think it depends on when they lose.

[Milktruck74]

Seeding is not all it is cracked up to be...Home field advantage is what it is, but.....you still gotta beat EVERYBODY to be a NC, regardless of your seed!!!!

[Katfan]

It will be interesting to watch develop. There is a lot of discussion about SOS, but not too often have i seen discussion about margin of victory which I think will go into the committee thinking as well. If we continue to win by large margins and put up 600 or 700 yards of offense per game 400 which comes in the first half I think it will a tough seeding discussion for the committee. Alas, there is a lot of football to be played and I think it'll get sorted out on the field. I just hope if we are fortunate enough to win out that we get a couple of home games.

[Katfan]

Seeding is not all it is cracked up to be...Home field advantage is what it is, but.....you still gotta beat EVERYBODY to be a NC, regardless of your seed!!!!
Yes, but it's very difficult to get to the natty on the road every game. We did it in 2012, but it's very tough and all the travel takes a toll.

[TheKingpin28]

Seeding is not all it is cracked up to be...Home field advantage is what it is, but.....you still gotta beat EVERYBODY to be a NC, regardless of your seed!!!!

Honestly, no team wants to go on the road, period. But if I had to choose, I'd take the, #notastadium , Thunderdome VS any other venue and would bet money that NDSU would come out victorious at the end of 60.

[JSUSoutherner]

Seeding is not all it is cracked up to be...Home field advantage is what it is, but.....you still gotta beat EVERYBODY to be a NC, regardless of your seed!!!!
Yeah, but it's always nice to have home games. Not just for the team and the home field advantage but it's nice for the fans as well.

I would much rather have Eastern Washington come to Jacksonville. For my retina's sake.

[The_Raven]

It depends how far you want to go back. CSU and Colgate played well in the playoffs last year. EWU has been to 3 semis simce 2010. Or if you want to the most crescent SHSU crapped the bed in their last playoff outing so...


Let's keep it recent:

Sam has been to 2 national championships in the last five seasons. Been to the semis the past 4 of last five seasons.. From what I remember knocking out your beloved team. Sure they showed poorly last season (in the semi finals) which was more their own doing really than anything. They are 13-5 in the playoffs the last five seasons. Other than NDSU can you name a more dominant team in the playoffs?

[BisonTru]

I would much rather have Eastern Washington come to Jacksonville. For my retina's sake.

Signed,
Everyone

[The_Raven]

By the way isn't sam like 6-1 in the past 7 games vs big sky opponents?!

[The_Raven]

Yeah, but it's always nice to have home games. Not just for the team and the home field advantage but it's nice for the fans as well.

I would much rather have Eastern Washington come to Jacksonville. For my retina's sake.

LOL

[JSUSoutherner]

Would venue affect seeding? If it's a close call the fact that we pack the house for playoff games might be a bit more appealing then having only 5,000-7,000 in Washington, Huntsville, or Chatty. Because $$$$.

[Katfan]

It depends how far you want to go back. CSU and Colgate played well in the playoffs last year. EWU has been to 3 semis simce 2010. Or if you want to the most crescent SHSU crapped the bed in their last playoff outing so...
So Colgate played well in the playoffs last year and we didn't because we beat them and made it to the semi and played a terrible game. That's an interesting perspective to have.

[Daytripper]

Would venue affect seeding? If it's a close call the fact that we pack the house for playoff games might be a bit more appealing then having only 5,000-7,000 in Washington, Huntsville, or Chatty. Because $$$$.

No.

[The_Raven]

Would venue affect seeding? If it's a close call the fact that we pack the house for playoff games might be a bit more appealing then having only 5,000-7,000 in Washington, Huntsville, or Chatty. Because $$$$.

Whether it does or not is love to trade stadiums with you guys!

[Katfan]

Would venue affect seeding? If it's a close call the fact that we pack the house for playoff games might be a bit more appealing then having only 5,000-7,000 in Washington, Huntsville, or Chatty. Because $$$$.
I don't think so, we hosted in 2011. If you're not seeded, I think it comes down to which team makes the best bid. Then those factors would probably have an impact on how much each school wants to bid.

- - - Updated - - -


Whether it does or not is love to trade stadiums with you guys!
I second that.

[Grizalltheway]

Yeah, but it's always nice to have home games. Not just for the team and the home field advantage but it's nice for the fans as well.

I would much rather have Eastern Washington come to Jacksonville. For my retina's sake.

You only have one? Dang, what happened?

[JSUSoutherner]

You only have one? Dang, what happened?

JSU @ EWU 2013.

[Thumper 76]

Seeding is not all it is cracked up to be...Home field advantage is what it is, but.....you still gotta beat EVERYBODY to be a NC, regardless of your seed!!!!

That's easy to say, but there's several SDSU playoff games I can think of that I believe would have ended differently had they been in Brookings.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Milktruck74]

Signed,
Everyone


Yeah, but it's always nice to have home games. Not just for the team and the home field advantage but it's nice for the fans as well.

I would much rather have Eastern Washington come to Jacksonville. For my retina's sake.

I know the red turf is bad, but Can you imagine how ugly the field at NDSU would be if they had Green Turf....Nevermind!

[kalm]

So Colgate played well in the playoffs last year and we didn't because we beat them and made it to the semi and played a terrible game. That's an interesting perspective to have.

Hey...it's your metric. I think it should based off of the current season's resume and have very little to do with previous years.

[kalm]

Let's keep it recent:

Sam has been to 2 national championships in the last five seasons. Been to the semis the past 4 of last five seasons.. From what I remember knocking out your beloved team. Sure they showed poorly last season (in the semi finals) which was more their own doing really than anything. They are 13-5 in the playoffs the last five seasons. Other than NDSU can you name a more dominant team in the playoffs?

No. Your record is great. Just strip the emotion and homerism from your argument and you will make more sense.

[The_Raven]

No. Your record is great. Just strip the emotion and homerism from your argument and you will make more sense.

LOL, coming from the guy with bad examples who at the same time trying to prove EWU relevancy...

[Milktruck74]

No. Your record is great. Just strip the emotion and homerism from your argument and you will make more sense.


LOL, coming from the guy with bad examples who at the same time trying to prove EWU relevancy...

The new guy comes out swinging!!!!!

[Gangtackle11]

Here is another site's projections:

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

[melloware13]

In the CAA, it appears that the best bets now are Villanova and JMU (excuse me while I puke). Richmond has been playing with fire since falling on Long Island and it appears that they will probably have 1-2 more losses. Albany is an enigma but can show a bit more this weekend against Richmond. The team that wins that game joins JMU and Nova as a good bet.

[Sammy94]

An undefeated SHSU team will be top 2 with the past 5 year playoff history. There was a reason McNeese was #4, they haven't won a playoff game in how long?

[FargoBison]

An undefeated SHSU team will be top 2 with the past 5 year playoff history. There was a reason McNeese was #4, they haven't won a playoff game in how long?

Playoff history has nothing to do with seeding.

Teams are going to be judged on what they did this year.

[CaryNCDuke]

In the CAA, it appears that the best bets now are Villanova and JMU (excuse me while I puke). Richmond has been playing with fire since falling on Long Island and it appears that they will probably have 1-2 more losses. Albany is an enigma but can show a bit more this weekend against Richmond. The team that wins that game joins JMU and Nova as a good bet.

Come on, you know you guys love us. I believe your mascot was even prostrating himself at Duke Dog's feet at the game.

In all honesty, William and Mary just needs their running back back healthy and they'll be able to pull some close games together. Villanova is a bit of a wild card that I don't know what will happen when we play them. It is going to continue to be a dog fight in the CAA and might knock some teams out of the playoffs that in any other conference would be in.

[Gangtackle11]

Come on, you know you guys love us. I believe your mascot was even prostrating himself at Duke Dog's feet at the game.

In all honesty, William and Mary just needs their running back back healthy and they'll be able to pull some close games together. Villanova is a bit of a wild card that I don't know what will happen when we play them. It is going to continue to be a dog fight in the CAA and might knock some teams out of the playoffs that in any other conference would be in.

Nova is as good as anyone in the CAA from what I've seen, but they are in the midst of the easier part of the schedule. Things will get a little clearer because after this week's Rhody game it's @Richmond, Albany, bye, @Maine, JMU, @ Delaware.

Need to get past Rhody & find 3 wins + for 8-3 record & hopefully a bye. Of course 9+ wins would be acceptable.

[dudeitsaid]

LOL, coming from the guy with bad examples who at the same time trying to prove EWU relevancy...

Good point...we have to figure out some way to prove EWU is relevant this season, or over the last fifteen years...xeyebrowx

In the grand world of speculation, the question is who would be more deserving of the 2 seed more. If both teams weren't relevant to that discussion, it wouldn't be taking place. Both of our teams have solid history. SHSU has better history over the past five years. This year, both teams are once again relevant. Both are known for tremendous offenses. But we've proven ourselves against the best in the country, with a legitimate chance to have been 5-0. To me, that is a heck of a tipping point. Your SOS is 91, our is the second toughest in the FCS. I think we would similarly throttle the teams you are playing. Maybe the Bearkats would've had similar success with our schedule, but it appears you guys like the easy path. We've proven it on the field, you're relying on how good we should think you are based on scoring lots of points against weak competition. Maybe the easy road is the smart play, and you guys will be healthier, and more able to have a deeper run come playoff time. But that doesn't mean if the scenario pans out, because of past years, you'd deserve a higher seed based on this years body of work.

[The_Raven]

Good point...we have to figure out some way to prove EWU is relevant this season, or over the last fifteen years...xeyebrowx

In the grand world of speculation, the question is who would be more deserving of the 2 seed more. If both teams weren't relevant to that discussion, it wouldn't be taking place. Both of our teams have solid history. SHSU has better history over the past five years. This year, both teams are once again relevant. Both are known for tremendous offenses. But we've proven ourselves against the best in the country, with a legitimate chance to have been 5-0. To me, that is a heck of a tipping point. Your SOS is 91, our is the second toughest in the FCS. I think we would similarly throttle the teams you are playing. Maybe the Bearkats would've had similar success with our schedule, but it appears you guys like the easy path. We've proven it on the field, you're relying on how good we should think you are based on scoring lots of points against weak competition. Maybe the easy road is the smart play, and you guys will be healthier, and more able to have a deeper run come playoff time. But that doesn't mean if the scenario pans out, because of past years, you'd deserve a higher seed based on this years body of work.

Agreed, both teams are very relevant this year! EWU has a ton of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. My reasoning for saying that was because (Kalm) said that my arguments were full of emotion and homerism.

[Katfan]

Hey...it's your metric. I think it should based off of the current season's resume and have very little to do with previous years.
Please show me where I ever said that was a metric, I said no just thing I was just pointing out your homerish logic replying to another post!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

An undefeated SHSU team will be top 2 with the past 5 year playoff history. There was a reason McNeese was #4, they haven't won a playoff game in how long?


This here.

11-0 Sammy is a top 2 seed IMO.

[PantherRob82]

This here.

11-0 Sammy is a top 2 seed IMO.

Not if EWU Is 10-1.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think they lose to UNI. If EWU runs the table and beats Montana and NDSU only has one loss, it will be interesting to see how the committee decides the #1 seed considering NDSU's win over EWU. Will it be "what have you done for me lately" or one beat the other? NDSU will have to lose two and EWU will have to lose again for SHSU to get a top 2 seed.


If both NDSU and EWU have 1 loss, it will be pretty easy for the committee IMO. Head/head win for NDSU would trump any loss during the next 7 games. Now 2 losses will drop NDSU esp if SHSU is 11-0.

[Katfan]

Good point...we have to figure out some way to prove EWU is relevant this season, or over the last fifteen years...xeyebrowx

In the grand world of speculation, the question is who would be more deserving of the 2 seed more. If both teams weren't relevant to that discussion, it wouldn't be taking place. Both of our teams have solid history. SHSU has better history over the past five years. This year, both teams are once again relevant. Both are known for tremendous offenses. But we've proven ourselves against the best in the country, with a legitimate chance to have been 5-0. To me, that is a heck of a tipping point. Your SOS is 91, our is the second toughest in the FCS. I think we would similarly throttle the teams you are playing. Maybe the Bearkats would've had similar success with our schedule, but it appears you guys like the easy path. We've proven it on the field, you're relying on how good we should think you are based on scoring lots of points against weak competition. Maybe the easy road is the smart play, and you guys will be healthier, and more able to have a deeper run come playoff time. But that doesn't mean if the scenario pans out, because of past years, you'd deserve a higher seed based on this years body of work.
I don't think we like it, New Mexico bought us out so they didn't have to play us and our conference is what it is. We've had some great playoff games against you guys hopefully we both continue playing well and have a chance to meet again. If it happens to be at your place, I hope the result is the same as the last couple.

[Katfan]

If both NDSU and EWU have 1 losses, it will be pretty easy for the committee IMO. Head/head win for NDSU would trump any loss during the next 7 games. Now 2 losses will drop NDSU esp if SHSU is 11-0.
I agree unless your loss is close to the end and looks bad.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Not if EWU Is 10-1.


Maybe, we'll see.

[Professor Chaos]

Who are you predicting for their one conference loss? If it's Montana and we run the rest of our conference slate (entirely possible), the auto bid would go to us by virtue of head to head.
Not predicting any loss in particular. I just think they can drop a game in conference and still be seeded above an undefeated SHSU team and possibly even a 1 loss Chattanooga team.

[dudeitsaid]

I don't think we like it, New Mexico bought us out so they didn't have to play us and our conference is what it is. We've had some great playoff games against you guys hopefully we both continue playing well and have a chance to meet again. If it happens to be at your place, I hope the result is the same as the last couple.

I'm sure you guys will cruise to the playoffs this year. I think we should as well. I don't honestly think we will win out. I think we have a couple of landmines, and UM is always a tough game for us. But if we do, I also hope you guys come to Cheney...and the results are the same as our last game against you there. :D

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Not predicting any loss in particular. I just think they can drop a game in conference and still be seeded above an undefeated SHSU team and possibly even a 1 loss Chattanooga team.


A 9-2 EWU seeded above a 11-0 Sammy?

I don't think so but we'll see if it happens....

[Professor Chaos]

It all depends on if SHSU continues to win big. If they do then they grab the number 2 seed. They have had way too much success within the playoffs the past five years to be looked over. I know that their non conference schedule isn't as strong but they have been a proven contender as of late.
If recent playoff success had anything to do with seeding NDSU wouldn't have been a 3 seed last year.


A 9-2 EWU seeded above a 11-0 Sammy?

I don't think so but we'll see if it happens....
I think so. Similar to 9-2 ISUr and NDSU being seeded above 10-0 McNeese St last year.

[Katfan]

I'm sure you guys will cruise to the playoffs this year. I think we should as well. I don't honestly think we will win out. I think we have a couple of landmines, and UM is always a tough game for us. But if we do, I also hope you guys come to Cheney...and the results are the same as our last game against you there. :D

in the playoffs? ��

[dudeitsaid]

A 9-2 EWU seeded above a 11-0 Sammy?

I don't think so but we'll see if it happens....

Yeah, I think the only chance we would have to be seeded above and undefeated Bearkat team is if we win out. No way if we have two losses, though I think EWU could still end up a seed in that case.

[malibudude]

Here is another site's projections:

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Big Sky will get at least 3 and the MVFC is probably not getting 6.

[dudeitsaid]

in the playoffs? ��

LOL, no. Not like our last playoff games against you guys. I knew what you meant...just playing with the fact we won our last game on the Inferno against you guys.

[Katfan]

LOL, no. Not like our last playoff games against you guys. I knew what you meant...just playing with the fact we won our last game on the Inferno against you guys.
I like the one in 04( I think that's when it was) better

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Yeah, I think the only chance we would have to be seeded above and undefeated Bearkat team is if we win out. No way if we have two losses, though I think EWU could still end up a seed in that case.


A 10-1 EWU is more than likely a top 2 seed but I agree that a 9-2 Eagle team is not ahead of a 11-0 Sammy team.

[Daytripper]

You only have one? Dang, what happened?

I got that...

[BisonTru]

Here's mine.



North Dakota



South Dakota St
1. North Dakota St






Youngstown
8. Montana


Villanova







Eastern Ill



Western Ill
4. Chattanooga






Albany
5. Sam Houston St


Lehigh











San Diego



Cal Poly
3. Eastern Wash






The Citadel
5. Charleston S


Northern Iowa







Duquense



Richmond
7. James Madison






Central Ark
2. Jacksonville St


Samford







Last 4 Out:



New Hampshire



Illinois St



Southern Utah



Fordham




I came up with the same at larges as the OP. Bracket and seeding was a little different and I had a different auto from the NEC.

[Daytripper]

Playoff history has nothing to do with seeding.

Teams are going to be judged on what they did this year.

...in a perfect world.

[dudeitsaid]

I like the one in 04( I think that's when it was) better

Hey, thanks for that...that is the most disappointing, crushing loss I have ever experienced. None have hurt more than that one!

[BisonTru]

For those that think SHSU is a lock for a top 2 seed. Anybody remember this game?

http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/fastclipper/2015/1219/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400.jpg

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Here's mine.



North Dakota



South Dakota St
1. North Dakota St






Youngstown
8. Montana


Richmond







Eastern Ill



Western Ill
4. Chattanooga






Albany
5. Sam Houston St


Lehigh











San Diego



Cal Poly
3. Eastern Wash






The Citadel
5. Charleston S


Northern Iowa







Duquense



Richmond
7. James Madison






Central Ark
2. Jacksonville St


Samford







Last 4 Out:



New Hampshire



Illinois St



Southern Utah



Fordham




I came up with the same at larges as the OP. Bracket and seeding was a little different and I had a different auto from the NEC.

I think I prefer our Duquesne matchup to our Youngstown matchup. Split squad or is one Friday and the other Saturday?

[BisonTru]

I think I prefer our Duquesne matchup to our Youngstown matchup. Split squad or is one Friday and the other Saturday?

My bad, you get your wish. Villanova was suppose to be the YSU matchup.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Terrific. Thank you. Bring on the Dukes.

[Katfan]

Hey, thanks for that...that is the most disappointing, crushing loss I have ever experienced. None have hurt more than that one!
Funny, whenever I'm having a bad day, I replay the 4th qtr. of that game.

[Red & Black]

Good point...we have to figure out some way to prove EWU is relevant this season, or over the last fifteen years...xeyebrowx

In the grand world of speculation, the question is who would be more deserving of the 2 seed more. If both teams weren't relevant to that discussion, it wouldn't be taking place. Both of our teams have solid history. SHSU has better history over the past five years. This year, both teams are once again relevant. Both are known for tremendous offenses. But we've proven ourselves against the best in the country, with a legitimate chance to have been 5-0. To me, that is a heck of a tipping point. Your SOS is 91, our is the second toughest in the FCS. I think we would similarly throttle the teams you are playing. Maybe the Bearkats would've had similar success with our schedule, but it appears you guys like the easy path. We've proven it on the field, you're relying on how good we should think you are based on scoring lots of points against weak competition. Maybe the easy road is the smart play, and you guys will be healthier, and more able to have a deeper run come playoff time. But that doesn't mean if the scenario pans out, because of past years, you'd deserve a higher seed based on this years body of work.

Nailed it.

[JSUSoutherner]

For those that think SHSU is a lock for a top 2 seed. Anybody remember this game?

http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/fastclipper/2015/1219/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400.jpg

Oh god. I didn't remember us being that far ahead at halftime. Wow.

[Nickels]

I love how everyone keeps saying we chose the easy path. We have 9 conference games and had FBS UNM on the schedule along with a SWAC school. UNM cancelled on us late which forced us into a D2 game. There was little we could do to improve. It's not our fault the conference is full of cupcakes.

[kalm]

I love how everyone keeps saying we chose the easy path. We have 9 conference games and had FBS UNM on the schedule along with a SWAC school. UNM cancelled on us late which forced us into a D2 game. There was little we could do to improve. It's not our fault the conference is full of cupcakes.

No it's not. You are all handcuffed by the 9 game schedule.

But the reality is you are not going to have a quality OOC DI win across your entire conference.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

For those that think SHSU is a lock for a top 2 seed. Anybody remember this game?

http://a.espncdn.com/media/motion/fastclipper/2015/1219/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400/evc_NCF_20151219_Sam_Houston_State_vs_Jacksonville _State_515211b5e9ef48858e16c627a1e1b400.jpg



An 11-0 Sammy is probably a top 2 seed depending if EWU is 10-1 or 9-2. No way are they a 4 or 5 with a 11-0 record IMO.

[Cocky]

If recent playoff success had anything to do with seeding NDSU wouldn't have been a 3 seed last year.


I think so. Similar to 9-2 ISUr and NDSU being seeded above 10-0 McNeese St last year.

And we wouldnt have been a 2.

[pokefan02]

It also made the brackets easier putting the teams where they did.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

It also made the brackets easier putting the teams where they did.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk
Based on what the selection committee chair said last year the seedings are based entirely off of a poll done by the selection committee members with voting done independently and anonymously. So the only way the seedings would play out with any geographical effect would be if there was some massive conspiracy to vote team X higher than team Y for geography reasons. Even then it would be tough to pull it off unless everyone was on board. So my conclusion drawn from that is that the seeds have absolutely nothing to do with geography.

[Bucs2016]

If that bracket came to be and my Bucs went to Samford I'd be happy. Rather have a home game. But as long as our first game is down South I'm good with it!

[JSUSoutherner]

If that bracket came to be and my Bucs went to Samford I'd be happy. Rather have a home game. But as long as our first game is down South I'm good with it!
You sure about that? xthumbsupx

[FargoBison]

Looking back at my bracket and double checking some new rules, I should have moved an MVFC team to the other side of the bracket. The new rules try to limit it to a max of three from the same conference on a side.

[BisonTru]

An 11-0 Sammy is probably a top 2 seed depending if EWU is 10-1 or 9-2. No way are they a 4 or 5 with a 11-0 record IMO.

Take FBS games which neither played due to circumstances out of their control, and take out the one DII game. What's the difference in 10-0 McNeese St and 10-0 Sam Houston St? McNeese was the four seed last year.

[SU DOG]

If that bracket came to be and my Bucs went to Samford I'd be happy. Rather have a home game. But as long as our first game is down South I'm good with it!

Can't happen from what I understand. The Seibert Stadium press facility doesn't meet the minimum video(replay) capability for NCAA approval. PATHETICALLY SAD!!! Plans for a complete stadium upgrade to alleviate this problem and others are on the table, and work is supposed to begin after the last home game. I don't know the exact details of the video requirements, but this is what I have been told.

[Professor Chaos]

Can't happen from what I understand. The Seibert Stadium press facility doesn't meet the minimum video(replay) capability for NCAA approval. PATHETICALLY SAD!!! Plans for a complete stadium upgrade to alleviate this problem and others are on the table, and work is supposed to begin after the last home game. I don't know the exact details of the video requirements, but this is what I have been told.
Is there a nearby stadium that Samford would be willing to play at as "host"? South Dakota St was in a similar situation last year where stadium re-construction was scheduled to take place immediately after the last regular season home game and if they would've gotten playoff home games they would've played at a larger high school stadium in Sioux Falls, SD (which is about 50 miles south of the SDSU campus).

[SU DOG]

Is there a nearby stadium that Samford would be willing to play at as "host"? South Dakota St was in a similar situation last year where stadium re-construction was scheduled to take place immediately after the last regular season home game and if they would've gotten playoff home games they would've played at a larger high school stadium in Sioux Falls, SD (which is about 50 miles south of the SDSU campus).

YES, there are couple of possibilities. The Hoover Met would be my first choice.

[Katfan]

Take FBS games which neither played due to circumstances out of their control, and take out the one DII game. What's the difference in 10-0 McNeese St and 10-0 Sam Houston St? McNeese was the four seed last year.
I think the difference would be if it continues to play out could potentially be the margin of victory that Sam puts up and the thought that would move them up in some of the computer rankings and in the minds of some of the committee members. Look at the change in MASSEY and comparative rankings just based on this past weekend. Anyway I don't know where they would put us but I know in 2011 we were seeded number 1 under very similar circumstances

[BisonTru]

I think the difference would be if it continues to play out could potentially be the margin of victory that Sam puts up and the thought that would move them up in some of the computer rankings and in the minds of some of the committee members. Look at the change in MASSEY and comparative rankings just based on this past weekend. Anyway I don't know where they would put us but I know in 2011 we were seeded number 1 under very similar circumstances

In 2011 you guys had wins over UT-San Antonio, Texas State, and New Mexico. Not premier FBS, but all FBS. You also had a victory over a decent Central Arkansas squad. SHSU dominated the Southland that year. This year you guys have a couple dominate conference wins, but I still need to see them dominate the rest of the conference like they did in 2011. On top of that you guys still wouldn't have the FBS wins you had from '11. If EWU, NDSU, Jacksonville St, and possibly even Chattanooga win out it may be tough to jump those teams even if you take care of your end. Winning comfortably will help your cause, but skating by or dropping a game or two will hurt as well.

[Nickels]

In 2011 you guys had wins over UT-San Antonio, Texas State, and New Mexico. Not premier FBS, but all FBS. You also had a victory over a decent Central Arkansas squad. SHSU dominated the Southland that year. This year you guys have a couple dominate conference wins, but I still need to see them dominate the rest of the conference like they did in 2011. On top of that you guys still wouldn't have the FBS wins you had from '11. If EWU, NDSU, Jacksonville St, and possibly even Chattanooga win out it may be tough to jump those teams even if you take care of your end. Winning comfortably will help your cause, but skating by or dropping a game or two will hurt as well.
UTSA and Texas State were in the SLC in 2011. So no, not FBS at all. I don't now why you keep posting this.

UNM was our only FBS game and they were scheduled again this year but bought us out late. Going into this season our schedule was pretty close to 2011.

[Katfan]

In 2011 you guys had wins over UT-San Antonio, Texas State, and New Mexico. Not premier FBS, but all FBS. You also had a victory over a decent Central Arkansas squad. SHSU dominated the Southland that year. This year you guys have a couple dominate conference wins, but I still need to see them dominate the rest of the conference like they did in 2011. On top of that you guys still wouldn't have the FBS wins you had from '11. If EWU, NDSU, Jacksonville St, and possibly even Chattanooga win out it may be tough to jump those teams even if you take care of your end. Winning comfortably will help your cause, but skating by or dropping a game or two will hurt as well.
USA and Texas state were SLC before they moved up and New Mexico was garbage. I didn't say we would or would not and I wasn't trying to convince you. My reply clearly is a big if we continue to win. I really care less what you think because your not on the committee.. that's how they look at it and that's exactly what happened in 2011.

[BisonTru]

UTSA and Texas State were in the SLC in 2011. So no, not FBS at all. I don't now why you keep posting this.

UNM was our only FBS game and they were scheduled again this year but bought us out late. Going into this season our schedule was pretty close to 2011.

I was wrong, but from what I've seen both TSU and UTSA were independents in 2011 and were FBS the following year. I would assume something like what Coastal Carolina is this year. Not sure on any of that though. I've never posted anything about your 2011 team/schedule and this year until that last post so I don't know where the "you keep posting this" comes from. I had to wiki your 2011 team because I really couldn't remember who you guys had played that year.

Bottom line if the Bearkats skate through the Southland like McNeese did they will probably get a similar seed which in hindsight looks to have been a little too high of seed anyway. I'm by no means saying you can't end up the 2 seed, but you'll need either or possibly both of these things to happen. Dominate the rest of your schedule and hope some of the teams in front of you (basically NDSU, JSU, EWU, and Chatty) lose at least one or more games.

[ngineer]

Still really early for this but here is my take...


UND at SDSU vs 1. NDSU
Villanova at WIU vs 8. The Citadel
UCA at Cal Poly vs 5. Sam Houston State
EIU at UNI vs 4. Chattanooga


Wagner at Albany vs 6. James Madison
Charleston Southern at Samford vs 3. Jacksonville State
Lehigh at YSU vs 7. Richmond
San Diego at Montana vs 2. Eastern Washington


Autobids: EWU, Charleston Southern, JMU, NDSU, Wagner, Jacksonville State, Lehigh, San Diego, Chattanooga, SHSU


At Large: The Citadel, Richmond, Montana, YSU, Albany, UNI, Cal Poly, SDSU, Villanova, WIU, Samford, UCA, EIU, UND

Lehigh at YSU would be a great trip. Would definitely travel to that one. Also going to Richmond would bring back a lot of memories from our great playoff win down there in 1998.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh at YSU would be a great trip. Would definitely travel to that one. Also going to Richmond would bring back a lot of memories from our great playoff win down there in 1998.

IF Lehigh runs the table and finishes 9-2 they'd have a pretty good chance to host a first round game imo. Their resume overall will be quite solid given a pretty good OOC schedule. They have the money and facilities to do so. A long way to go though...

With that said. Beating YSU with a chance to get payback on Villanova and ending Talley's career would be my choice if they have to hit the road.

After the train wreck that was the 2014 season it's nice to be talking playoffs the end of last year and now again this season. It's time to return though. Five years is a long enough absence.

[Katfan]

I was wrong, but from what I've seen both TSU and UTSA were independents in 2011 and were FBS the following year. I would assume something like what Coastal Carolina is this year. Not sure on any of that though. I've never posted anything about your 2011 team/schedule and this year until that last post so I don't know where the "you keep posting this" comes from. I had to wiki your 2011 team because I really couldn't remember who you guys had played that year.

Bottom line if the Bearkats skate through the Southland like McNeese did they will probably get a similar seed which in hindsight looks to have been a little too high of seed anyway. I'm by no means saying you can't end up the 2 seed, but you'll need either or possibly both of these things to happen. Dominate the rest of your schedule and hope some of the teams in front of you (basically NDSU, JSU, EWU, and Chatty) lose at least one or more games.
Not so if we win by big margins and NDSU loses we will be #1 seed. I've seen it before if we don't continue to dominate and win out we'll be a 3 4 or 5 if we lose all bets are off. We did beat WIU that year which is better than the TSU ooc we should have. You ask how it could happen. I'm telling you I'm not saying it will or should. Polls and selection committee look at SOS but they also look at margin of victory. This team is more talented and significantly deeper than any team we have had. People thinking this is last years team will be surprised. Just ask Rev.

[LUHawker]

IF Lehigh runs the table and finishes 9-2 they'd have a pretty good chance to host a first round game imo. Their resume overall will be quite solid given a pretty good OOC schedule. They have the money and facilities to do so. A long way to go though...

With that said. Beating YSU with a chance to get payback on Villanova and ending Talley's career would be my choice if they have to hit the road.

After the train wreck that was the 2014 season it's nice to be talking playoffs the end of last year and now again this season. It's time to return though. Five years is a long enough absence.

"Playoffs?! You wanna talk playoffs?"

We're 5 games in and haven't played a PL team yet. Let's keep it in check. While I think LU will be in the mix, we should be talking Colgate - our nemesis (not to be confused with Lafayette, our rival).

[Doc QB]

"Playoffs?! You wanna talk playoffs?" We're 5 games in and haven't played a PL team yet. Let's keep it in check. While I think LU will be in the mix, we should be talking Colgate - our nemesis (not to be confused with Lafayette, our rival).

Agree with this wholeheartedly. Way to much football to be played. And while it is nice to be riding a 3-game winning streak against three IVY foes of questionable strength, and nice to be able to envision some PL wins...we haven't been on solid enough footing at LU the past few years to look this far ahead. We didn't play well against Monmouth, and failed to make a statement against 'Nova at their place. And we have Colgate coming to town, and wounded or not, has much the same team that had a solid tourney run last season. It is one of the reasons the others teams' posters take great joy in knocking us down here. We haven't done it for awhile (2010, 2011) and done it enough. Knock down the Raiders, Fordham still looms, a playoff participant last year as well.

So, I totally agree..."Playoffs???!!!!"