AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 5 2016

[superman7515]

Montana State & Sacramento State are still battling it out for a few more minutes, but everything from the spreadsheet is finished, so time to post it up.

Yellow: Must win out to reach seven D1 wins.
Red: Can't reach seven D1 wins.

Yes, there is no hard and fast rule that you have to have 7 to get an at-large bid, there never has been, but only Western Illinois has ever gotten in as an at-large with fewer, so take from that what you will.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CPpbn31cfjPBUoFZtIx-is965yuxoS6CduM68mHL80E/edit?usp=sharing

A few notes this week to facilitate the conversation:

Still going strong: There are still 8 few teams looking for perfection; Albany, Chattanooga, The Citadel, Cornell, Harvard, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, and Tennessee State.

Madonna - Borderline: Four teams are pushing their fans love to the borderline, as Charleston Southern was joined by Colgate, Elon, and Portland State on the spreadsheet this week as teams who must win out to reach seven D1 wins. As for Northern Arizona...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwH__x6jV6A

[JSUSoutherner]

The link goes to the spreadsheet from last week.

[superman7515]

The link goes to the spreadsheet from last week.

Sorry, clicked the wrong one in the folder. Fixed now, thanks bud.

[kalm]

Good luck with Poly, Montana, UNI, and SDSU.

And don't forget UND and WIU in that mix.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Good luck with Poly, Montana, UNI, and SDSU.

And don't forget UND and WIU in that mix.


.........kalm........YER BLABBLIN'.......xnodx.....BRAWK!

[FCSwatcher]

Good luck with Poly, Montana, UNI, and SDSU.

And don't forget UND and WIU in that mix.

Tough mix. Best game by Studsrud yesterday. In the BSC. EWU, UND, CP, Montana. There are going to be some good games once QBs are healthy for NAU and SUU.

Interesting year in the Big Sky


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[Milktruck74]

Tough week...relied on the spread sheet a lot!!!! almost felt like I was slotting....but I spent some time refining!!!!!

[MacThor]

I wish I was still a voter, but.....

I think it would be tough to find 25 teams worthy of a vote!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I wish I was still a voter, but.....

I think it would be tough to find 25 teams worthy of a vote!

If you want back in after being out then all you have to do is tell me during signups in July or again in late August and we'll get you back on the attack.

[superman7515]

Sagarin, Massey, and SOS have been updated to reflect yesterday's results.

[RootinFerDukes]

Well shoot. Ranking 15-25 was nearly impossible. Many teams proved they shouldn't be ranked, but only 15 or so have shown they should be ranked.

[Milktruck74]

Well shoot. Ranking 15-25 was nearly impossible. Many teams proved they shouldn't be ranked, but only 15 or so have shown they should be ranked.

YEP!!!! Nothing but agreement from the Fat guy!!!!

[PantherRob82]

I didn't have too tough of a time. I start by ranking each conference, at least the team's that are in the running and then start piecing them into my top 25. Top 5 was easy. 6-15 was tough. 20-25 was fairly easy because I had about 10 teams battling for those slots and I gave them to the teams that are headed in the right direction.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

I didn't have too tough of a time. I start by ranking each conference, at least the team's that are in the running and then start piecing them into my top 25. Top 5 was easy. 6-15 was tough. 20-25 was fairly easy because I had about 10 teams battling for those slots and I gave them to the teams that are headed in the right direction.


So what about 16 thru 19? Difficult or easy for you?

[PantherRob82]

So what about 16 thru 19? Difficult or easy for you?

I thought it was pretty easy. A lot of the teams in that range either beat weak teams or lost to top ranked teams.

[LeeshaJo]

Really honestly, imo.. there is a clear number one. Then 4-5 teams that by win-loss record (not looking at matchups, etc.) and 4-5 teams that I think are better than their record show who are going to make up the top ten. Beyond that, about 20 or so teams that could make up the next 15. Big Sky and MVFC are going to eat themselves alive this year and at the end, it will be the other conferences who benefit for it with teams in the playoffs.

[TheKingpin28]

I got to about 15/16 or so before I started the "well shoot, I could grab 20 teams and none of them deserve the position they are going to get." I spent about 1 hour going in circles for just 10 slots. Well worth it though.

[Professor Chaos]

Listing alphabetically:

Cal Poly
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota State
Western Illinois

Ranking those teams made me pull my hair out given head-to-head results that conflicted so much with total body of work so far.

[F'N Hawks]

Listing alphabetically:

Cal Poly
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota State
Western Illinois

Ranking those teams made me pull my hair out given head-to-head results that conflicted so much with total body of work so far.

South Dakota State
Montana
North Dakota
Cal Poly
Western Illinois

That is how I would rank them. Thoughts on why:

Teams will figure out Western Illinois after getting game tape and slow them down/attack them differently, much like SDSU just did. Still good team, obviously, but for SDSU to do that to them tells me they picked up on something after watching three games.

UND is beat up bad and not deep at CB or RB or OL. They are going to drop one here that they shouldn't vs. a team that throws the ball alot. Sure hope it's not this weekend. xbangx UND has two RB's total on the depth chart for this weekend. They have four CB's and two are true freshman. Not good.

Montana lost by one point to Poly, easily could have won. Montana is still the #1 or #2 team in the Big Sky. They are going to be tough to beat, EWU might be the only one that can.

SDSU is much, much better than they played vs. Poly. Their defensive scheme was horrendous and basically gave their players no chance at times. Burn the tape and play more typical offenses from here on out.

Poly will be fine. Their issues are on defense from what I have seen. Not much run support or coverage out of the secondary and issues sideline to sideline. UND went to the perimeter all game and they never really stopped it - and that was without Santiago. Were tougher up the middle. Their offense will be fine when Protheroe is back and Graves makes them 10x better this year.

[bobcathpdevil56]

15-25 SNAFU! No other way to describe that

[BadlandsGrizFan]

What was interesting to me was Montana's SOS compared to the top 10 teams. After the 1-3 teams Montana's SOS is far better than the rest in the top 10. This should play largely down the stretch and line up pretty well for Montana come playoff ranking time you would think.

[dewey]

Well shoot. Ranking 15-25 was nearly impossible. Many teams proved they shouldn't be ranked, but only 15 or so have shown they should be ranked.

Agreed. It was tough since so many teams in the 15-25 range lost and then a lot of the ORV teams lost.

Dewey

[Mayville Bison]

South Dakota State
Montana
North Dakota
Cal Poly
Western Illinois

That is how I would rank them. Thoughts on why:

Teams will figure out Western Illinois after getting game tape and slow them down/attack them differently, much like SDSU just did. Still good team, obviously, but for SDSU to do that to them tells me they picked up on something after watching three games.

UND is beat up bad and not deep at CB or RB or OL. They are going to drop one here that they shouldn't vs. a team that throws the ball alot. Sure hope it's not this weekend. xbangx UND has two RB's total on the depth chart for this weekend. They have four CB's and two are true freshman. Not good.

Montana lost by one point to Poly, easily could have won. Montana is still the #1 or #2 team in the Big Sky. They are going to be tough to beat, EWU might be the only one that can.

SDSU is much, much better than they played vs. Poly. Their defensive scheme was horrendous and basically gave their players no chance at times. Burn the tape and play more typical offenses from here on out.

Poly will be fine. Their issues are on defense from what I have seen. Not much run support or coverage out of the secondary and issues sideline to sideline. UND went to the perimeter all game and they never really stopped it - and that was without Santiago. Were tougher up the middle. Their offense will be fine when Protheroe is back and Graves makes them 10x better this year.

UND needs to do more in my opinion. I have them solidly in my poll, but they are the bottom of those 5 without a doubt. Last two wins were solid, but I still can't forget about the first 3 games - especially needing OT to beat USD. They are definitely trending up, but there's no way I can put them above any of those other teams.

[Professor Chaos]

South Dakota State
Montana
North Dakota
Cal Poly
Western Illinois

That is how I would rank them. Thoughts on why:

Teams will figure out Western Illinois after getting game tape and slow them down/attack them differently, much like SDSU just did. Still good team, obviously, but for SDSU to do that to them tells me they picked up on something after watching three games.

UND is beat up bad and not deep at CB or RB or OL. They are going to drop one here that they shouldn't vs. a team that throws the ball alot. Sure hope it's not this weekend. xbangx UND has two RB's total on the depth chart for this weekend. They have four CB's and two are true freshman. Not good.

Montana lost by one point to Poly, easily could have won. Montana is still the #1 or #2 team in the Big Sky. They are going to be tough to beat, EWU might be the only one that can.

SDSU is much, much better than they played vs. Poly. Their defensive scheme was horrendous and basically gave their players no chance at times. Burn the tape and play more typical offenses from here on out.

Poly will be fine. Their issues are on defense from what I have seen. Not much run support or coverage out of the secondary and issues sideline to sideline. UND went to the perimeter all game and they never really stopped it - and that was without Santiago. Were tougher up the middle. Their offense will be fine when Protheroe is back and Graves makes them 10x better this year.
You're putting a lot of weight on head-to-head and not really looking at the rest of the picture. If you look solely at head-to-head results you're probably pretty close. However, I had them at Montana, WIU, Cal Poly, SDSU, and UND. I think Montana, WIU, and Cal Poly all have multiple good wins whereas SDSU and UND each only have one as of now.

[F'N Hawks]

UND needs to do more in my opinion. I have them solidly in my poll, but they are the bottom of those 5 without a doubt. Last two wins were solid, but I still can't forget about the first 3 games - especially needing OT to beat USD. They are definitely trending up, but there's no way I can put them above any of those other teams.
I am not advocating for UND at all. Just trying to create dialogue on the entire picture. UND could be ranked 30. They could be ranked 18. Meh.

WIU's wins aren't looking all that great now, are they? Things start to show after 5-6 games.

If you want to split hairs UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it, to beat Bowling Green (who sucks). Would that make them a better team today if they caught it and won? I say no. Stony Brook had to block a punt for a TD in 4th quarter to win, which will never happen again this year. So UND wins that game by two points if it doesn't happen. Big deal, they still looked like crap on offense most the game.

My point is a body of work is needed when discussing the 10-30 ranked teams because they are all not good enough to dominate or play consistent football week to week.

One more thing: considering everybody on AGS was just gushing and falling all over themselves to praise the unstoppable force that is the Cal Poly triple option, you would think that UND's win would be praised by most on here. Go back and read some comments from the past two weeks. UND was flat out better than Poly most of the game, I don't even think Poly fans would argue that.

[F'N Hawks]

You're putting a lot of weight on head-to-head and not really looking at the rest of the picture. If you look solely at head-to-head results you're probably pretty close. However, I had them at Montana, WIU, Cal Poly, SDSU, and UND. I think Montana, WIU, and Cal Poly all have multiple good wins whereas SDSU and UND each only have one as of now.

True. I was also projecting a bit as I see WIU stumbling here with teams that are better and have seen their new schemes. NAU and NIU are turning out to be not very good at all. EIU appears to be better this year.

SDSU is not going to get ran all over again this year like Poly did, that needs to be factored in.

[Professor Chaos]

True. I was also projecting a bit as I see WIU stumbling here with teams that are better and have seen their new schemes. NAU and NIU are turning out to be not very good at all. EIU appears to be better this year.

SDSU is not going to get ran all over again this year like Poly did, that needs to be factored in.
We'll see on SDSU's run defense. I'm not sold at all on that right now. Even in blowing out WIU they gave up 183 yards rushing at 6.3 ypc. UNI and NDSU are built on running the ball and SDSU plays both on the road (YSU has some darn good RBs too). The Jack Attack's season is still very much teetering right now despite their big win last week.

EDIT: You are right about WIU's FBS win being nothing special but I equate winning an FBS game, any FBS game, to a "Get out of jail free" card for an FCS team. It allows them to drop a game later in the season that they probably shouldn't without it really damaging their playoff chances. You may think UND would be the same team now had they beat Bowling Green but if it comes down to that being the difference between 7-4 and 8-3 the playoff selection committee may see it differently.

[BisonBacker]

15-25 SNAFU! No other way to describe that
I agree 100%

[ursus arctos horribilis]

There is about 1/2 hr. left if you have not gotten your vote in, do so now.

[Mayville Bison]

WIU's wins aren't looking all that great now, are they? Things start to show after 5-6 games.

If you want to split hairs UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it, to beat Bowling Green (who sucks). Would that make them a better team today if they caught it and won? I say no. Stony Brook had to block a punt for a TD in 4th quarter to win, which will never happen again this year. So UND wins that game by two points if it doesn't happen. Big deal, they still looked like crap on offense most the game.

My point is a body of work is needed when discussing the 10-30 ranked teams because they are all not good enough to dominate or play consistent football week to week.

One more thing: considering everybody on AGS was just gushing and falling all over themselves to praise the unstoppable force that is the Cal Poly triple option, you would think that UND's win would be praised by most on here. Go back and read some comments from the past two weeks. UND was flat out better than Poly most of the game, I don't even think Poly fans would argue that.

Yeah, UND could easily be 5-0 at this point, but they could be 0-5 as well, so the whatif game doesn't hold a lot of weight with me.

It seems like you are giving points why UND shouldn't be ranked
1-UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it
2-UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it, to beat Bowling Green (who sucks)
3-Big deal, they still looked like crap on offense most the game
and then follow it up by saying a body of work is needed? Not sure how to follow that if your point is to elevate UND above a team or two in that group. WIU got thumped on the road to a good team, but won the other games they should have won and did so with relative ease. UND maybe hasn't gotten thumped, but they didn't win the game(s) they should have won and they definitely didn't do it with relative ease.

[F'N Hawks]

Yeah, UND could easily be 5-0 at this point, but they could be 0-5 as well, so the whatif game doesn't hold a lot of weight with me.

It seems like you are giving points why UND shouldn't be ranked
1-UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it
2-UND dropped the two point conversion, literally dropped it, to beat Bowling Green (who sucks)
3-Big deal, they still looked like crap on offense most the game
and then follow it up by saying a body of work is needed? Not sure how to follow that if your point is to elevate UND above a team or two in that group. WIU got thumped on the road to a good team, but won the other games they should have won and did so with relative ease. UND maybe hasn't gotten thumped, but they didn't win the game(s) they should have won and they definitely didn't do it with relative ease.

Can't argue that. Which is why I think we need to wait a few weeks and see who makes up for those losses or who drops a few to even it all out. If you want to put UND 5th in that pool that is easily believable.

I was projecting in my rankings along with the point you need to factor in that once bounce of the ball doesn't mean a team is better than another. The next 4-6 games will start to sort teams out and even out the unfortunates/fortunates.
Still thinking that Poly win should be huge with the AGS voters. xcoffeex

[jacksfan29]

Can't argue that. Which is why I think we need to wait a few weeks and see who makes up for those losses or who drops a few to even it all out.

I was projecting in my rankings along with the point you need to factor in that once bounce of the ball doesn't mean a team is better than another. The next 4-6 games will start to sort teams out and even out the unfortunates/fortunates.

Still thinking that Poly win should be huge with the AGS voters. xcoffeex

I think UND are in the top 25, possibly 15 - 20 but don't go crazy over the Poly win. Minus Protheroe Cal Poly is a very different team. They guy is a beast.

[F'N Hawks]

I think UND are in the top 25, possibly 15 - 20 but don't go crazy over the Poly win. Minus Protheroe Cal Poly is a very different team. They guy is a beast.

You didn't watch the game I assume as the fullback was not going to win that game - Graves was and didn't. Santiago left the game on the second play, never to return. Would call that a wash.

[PantherRob82]

As of right not I have the teams in this order:

Montana (close loss on the road at Cal Poly)
Cal Poly (lost on the road at UND, but defeated SDSU)
SDSU (Lost to Cal Poly badly, but destroyed WIU)
UND (Beat Cal Poly, WIU got smoked)
WIU (Got smoked by SDSU, needs to regain my confidence)

[BEAR]

When does the AGS top 25 poll get released? What time today? Thanks!

[Professor Chaos]

When does the AGS top 25 poll get released? What time today? Thanks!
Around noon CT. Voting is closed but Ursus is doing his tabulation thing right now probably...

https://hallofbeorn.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/bear-sitting-at-the-computer.jpg

[BEAR]

Around noon CT. Voting is closed but Ursus is doing his tabulation thing right now probably...



Thanks! Hope there's no hanging chads to count...xlolx

[smoothjack]

As of right not I have the teams in this order:

Montana (close loss on the road at Cal Poly)
Cal Poly (lost on the road at UND, but destroyed SDSU)
SDSU (Lost to Cal Poly badly, but destroyed WIU)
UND (Beat Cal Poly, WIU got smoked)
WIU (Got smoked by SDSU, needs to regain my confidence)

Somebody please explain how losing by 7 is getting destroyed again? Maybe both defenses got destroyed but the game was tied until 3 minutes left in the 4th...

[jacksfan29]

You didn't watch the game I assume as the fullback was not going to win that game - Graves was and didn't. Santiago left the game on the second play, never to return. Would call that a wash.

Nope, didn't watch the game but losing Protheroe is huge for Poly. Bigger than Santiago for UND. That offense is unique and he is not your typical FB in that system.

Not saying it isn't a good win, but when I first heard it I found it to be much bigger than I do right now. I think the jury is still out on UND just like I think it is out on SDSU. The next few weeks will tell a lot about SDSU. I don't see anyone left on UND's schedule worth having a discussion about except maybe SUU who you have at home? We may not really find out how good UND are until the playoffs.

[BisonTru]

Somebody please explain how losing by 7 is getting destroyed again? Maybe both defenses got destroyed but the game was tied until 3 minutes left in the 4th...

Looking at the stats it looks as if Cal Poly dominated the game, but the score was closer than the game.

I didn't watch so if you have a different take, feel free to share.

[kalm]

Nope, didn't watch the game but losing Protheroe is huge for Poly. Bigger than Santiago for UND. That offense is unique and he is not your typical FB in that system.

Not saying it isn't a good win, but when I first heard it I found it to be much bigger than I do right now. I think the jury is still out on UND just like I think it is out on SDSU. The next few weeks will tell a lot about SDSU. I don't see anyone left on UND's schedule worth having a discussion about except maybe SUU who you have at home? We may not really find out how good UND are until the playoffs.

UND has a very realistic shot at running the table. SB and Poly finishing strong obviously helps their cause as well.

[F'N Hawks]

Nope, didn't watch the game but losing Protheroe is huge for Poly. Bigger than Santiago for UND. That offense is unique and he is not your typical FB in that system.
Not saying it isn't a good win, but when I first heard it I found it to be much bigger than I do right now.

Of course. Can't make it up. Greatest team ever the last two weeks-unstoppable-then UND beats them and now they probably aren't that good and not having a fullback was the difference maker. xlolx Their running backs were not a factor in the game.

[F'N Hawks]

UND has a very realistic shot at running the table. SB and Poly finishing strong obviously helps their cause as well.

They won't and will trip up at least once more, if not twice. Losing 1-2 starters a week to injury and are not deep at all.

Poly will be fine as Graves can dig them out of any hole. Kid is good.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

If UND runs the table I'll **** my pants

[F'N Hawks]

If UND runs the table I'll **** my pants

A lot of it will depend on how the November workouts are going. If they run out of chocolate milk it could be curtains for them.

[Kemo]

Of course. Can't make it up. Greatest team ever the last two weeks-unstoppable-then UND beats them and now they probably aren't that good and not having a fullback was the difference maker. xlolx Their running backs were not a factor in the game.
When I noticed that Cal Poly was facing UND this past week I actually thought the Fighting Hawks had a pretty decent shot at handing the Mustangs their first FCS loss. UND's defense has been pretty stout against the run and I thought Poly's D was susceptible enough to let the UND O get rolling. Plus, correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Bubba brought in as a D coordinator at UND way back when to stop NDSU's triple option?

[F'N Hawks]

When I noticed that Cal Poly was facing UND this past week I actually thought the Fighting Hawks had a pretty decent shot at handing the Mustangs their first FCS loss. UND's defense has been pretty stout against the run and I thought Poly's D was susceptible enough to let the UND O get rolling. Plus, correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Bubba brought in as a D coordinator at UND way back when to stop NDSU's triple option?


Yes, Bubba and Lennon installed it because they could not slow down NDSU's veer option, at all. I have come to the conclusion that if you are not much better than a team like Poly, you best have an outstanding scheme. NDSU could line up with whatever their game plan was and beat Poly because they are better up front. No matter what Poly did. Not the case for most teams, however.

UND needs to have a solid game plan with twisting, etc. and having a nose guard over the center using their 3-4 defense to win and that is pretty much how it's played out the last two years. I believe Poly had 64 yards rushing at halftime.

[PantherRob82]

Somebody please explain how losing by 7 is getting destroyed again? Maybe both defenses got destroyed but the game was tied until 3 minutes left in the 4th...

I meant to come back and edit that. :P

[smoothjack]

I meant to come back and edit that. :P

Got it!

[jacksfan29]

Of course. Can't make it up. Greatest team ever the last two weeks-unstoppable-then UND beats them and now they probably aren't that good and not having a fullback was the difference maker. xlolx Their running backs were not a factor in the game.

I keep forgetting, Hawky fans have a little chip on their shoulder. HUGE WIN!!!!!!! Does that make you feel better?

[Thumper 76]

I keep forgetting, Hawky fans have a little chip on their shoulder. HUGE WIN!!!!!!! Does that make you feel better?

Little chip?


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[BisonFan02]

If UND runs the table I'll **** my pants

Well.....****.....now I kinda want this to happen. xlolx

[geaux_sioux]

Nope, didn't watch the game but losing Protheroe is huge for Poly. Bigger than Santiago for UND. That offense is unique and he is not your typical FB in that system.

Not saying it isn't a good win, but when I first heard it I found it to be much bigger than I do right now. I think the jury is still out on UND just like I think it is out on SDSU. The next few weeks will tell a lot about SDSU. I don't see anyone left on UND's schedule worth having a discussion about except maybe SUU who you have at home? We may not really find out how good UND are until the playoffs.

So Poly being without their fullback made all the difference? How about UND not having their top WR and only deep threat, starting RT, starting CB, and all american starting RB? Think that may have made a difference for UND? How about going down to our third string center in the game? We were also missing out #2 NG which is pretty important against the triple option I'd say. So Prothrow not being in the game made all the difference? Santiago touched the ball once and got 23 yards, didn't return. The game would've been ugly had he not gotten injured.

[F'N Hawks]

Protheroe was the difference in the game. UND got lucky again. I truly believe that.

[Bisonator]

F'nhawks fans:https://img.pandawhale.com/post-12633-We-demand-to-be-taken-seriousl-sUjc.jpeg




xlolx

[JSUSoutherner]

Protheroe was the difference in the game. UND got lucky again. I truly believe that.
Not a stadium.