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View Full Version : Western Illinois @ South Dakota State



Thumper 76
September 26th, 2016, 12:16 PM
Start Time: 6pm Central

Location: Dana J Dykhouse Stadium, Brookings

Television: ESPN3 as well as the MVFC game of the week coverage

Other: Military Appreciation Day, rather fitting with the Leathernecks in town.

So I couldn't wait till noon to put the team rankings in the title, the bye week beforehand is too much for me to wait. I'm impatient. This game looks like it's going to be a real fun one to watch having two ranked teams with high powered offenses coming to meet each other, quite the opposite of your normal top 25 MVFC matchup.

Western Illinois comes in averaging 33.3 points per game while giving up an average of 21.3 points per game. SDSU is averaging 42.6 points per game while giving up 41.6 points per game. However, the more important stat is that SDSU is giving up an insane amount of rushing yards per game, 283.3 yards per game to be exact. Meanwhile, WIU is averaging 190 yards rushing per game, except that was against teams that appear to actually play run defense. However, WIU is giving up 317.6 yards passing per game while SDSU has averaged 290 ypg. SDSU has 12 passing TDs this season while WIU has given up 7 passing TDs. WIU has 9 rushing TDs while SDSU has given up 10 TDs on the ground. So each teams defense appears to be awful against the other offenses strength.

The possible silver lining for SDSU on the defensive side is so far they have only faced one offense that is similar to the style of most MVFC teams in Drake, but they are atrocious. An argument could be made that a big reason they got gashed so badly was due to playing what is starting to look like an extremely potent triple option team in Cal Poly along with a wildly athletic Big XII spread team in TCU, neither of which were good match ups for the Jacks. Doesn't erase the god awful performances they have had, where they gave up over 600 yards of offense and over 40 ppg against any team that offers scholarships, but it could mean that they are better than what they have shown to date. They won't be great at any point this season, but they could end up being decent. It's doubtful, but possible.

Meanwhile WIU should be fairly used to facing an offense like SDSU after facing two teams that are heavy pass teams in NAU and EIU. SDSU can run the ball better than they get credit for, they just don't do it often as teams have been trying to force them to pass. Also, WIU will have to contend with two weapons that are better than any they have faced to date in Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert. People can say that SDSUs offense is only throw it up to Goedert (or Not Wieneke as dubbed by IBY) or to Wieneke, but no offense has been able to stop it yet. Both have great hands and body control, and are extremely hard to bring down in the open field. One thing going for WIU is that Taryn Christion has been hobbled since the TCU game with an ankle injury. If that hasn't healed fully I can see this ending up like the Cal Poly game where TC has to come off and get re-taped up while Zach Lujan takes over for a drive. Unfortunately for WIU, Lujan is more than a normal backup.

This game is going to be similar to the Cal Poly game. WIU will have to control the clock and run the ball, and convert on long third downs to keep the drives alive while SDSU sells out on the run. I'm going to bet they look to take advantage of SDSUs young secondary with play action pass plays and their great receiving corps. SDSU does get back senior safety Nick Mears, which should help in that regard, but I see the Necks getting more than one big play off of blown coverage by young cornerbacks. This game looks almost certain to be a track meet, and if there are under 70 points scored in the game I will be absolutely shocked. That would most likely mean one teams defense figured out how to play defense and the game is a blow out. WIU will have to guard against a let down after a huge emotional FBS win against an in state FBS rival. It should help them to not have that due to playing a ranked team this week, but SDSU does have the advantage of having a bye week to get healthy and refocused. SDSU also has the revenge factor after WIU ruined their chances of a top 8 seed last year. Probably a homer pick since the Jacks tend to drop big games like this at home, but I'll take SDSU at home in a really close game that has about a dozen lead changes in it. After a huge loss to Poly two weeks ago I'm expecting a crowd of about 13-14,000. I would be tickled pink if we draw over 15,000 after a loss like that, it would be a great sign for the Jacks fanbase.

FargoBison
September 26th, 2016, 12:40 PM
Should be a fun game to watch, glad it is after the Bison game so I can watch via ESPN3. Pretty much in my opinion a must win for SDSU, can't really afford to drop any more at home with at least three tough road games still to play.

IBleedYellow
September 26th, 2016, 01:01 PM
Are you ****ting bricks yet, Rabbit fans.

Because I already am for when we play them.

Thumper 76
September 26th, 2016, 01:03 PM
Are you ****ting bricks yet, Rabbit fans.

Because I already am for when we play them.

Yes. I could build a house with what I **** last week before they beat NIU. Although I already predicted they would in the prediction thread ;)

PantherRob82
September 26th, 2016, 01:46 PM
Huge game, can't wait.

Schism55
September 26th, 2016, 01:55 PM
SDSU is averaging 42.6 points per game while giving up 41.6 points per game.

This cracked me up, hard.

ST_Lawson
September 26th, 2016, 02:16 PM
I think the biggest difference between what I see from last year to this year is what I would call "emotional buy-in".

For the most part, we have the same players as last year, plus a couple of transfers and maybe 3 true freshmen playing, but the difference is how the coach interacts with them. Coach Nielson wasn't a bad coach, he could recruit pretty well, come up with some decent offensive stuff, bring in some decent assistant coaches (hell, one of the guys left to do the same job, but at Rutgers...a pretty decent step up), but he just didn't really connect emotionally with the players. Huge plays, horrible plays, team is excited and fired up, team is hanging their heads sitting on the benches...Nielson would just stand there in his suit, arms crossed. I'm pretty sure this is how he looked ~95% of the time on our sidelines...

https://i.imgur.com/1QmUJCg.jpg

Coach Fisher (ie Coach http://i.imgur.com/P0c3nlE.png?1) is much more animated and emotional than Nielson (in a different way than Pelini), but he also can get the guys fired up when they need to be. When we were down 7-0 early at Eastern and then down 13-3 in the first half against Northern Arizona, it was Coach Fisher's energy that helped the team not give up, battle back, and win both games decisively. When we were playing at NIU and they had fought back from a 21 point deficit after 3 quarters to pull within 5 points, Fisher and his defensive coaches were roaming around the defense on the sideline, smacking the pads and getting them pumped up and ready to defend our end zone...not yelling at them in a bad way...but giving them encouragement and energy to continue the fight. This energy helped enable the defense to go out there and "bend-don't-break" against the NIU offense, giving up some big plays, but once the Huskies were in the red zone, turning them away on 4th down not once, but twice within the final 3 minutes of the game. We may not win every game, but we're always going to fight to the end.

Fisher has brought an energy to the team that I haven't seen in a long time...probably since Coach Patterson's days. He's got the guys both physically and emotionally ready to compete with any team we'll face this year. If you want to see what I'm talking about, here's the NIU game highlight video, including Coach Fisher's talk with the team after the game (that starts at ~1:20 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npBdT2xgAYQ

Thumper 76
September 26th, 2016, 02:17 PM
This cracked me up, hard.

Man, I pray we figure our defense out. Even just a little bit. Cause then I don't think there would be a team in the country who would even giggle about playing us. Right now every offense is probably giddy as a bunch of schoolgirls to play us though.

Twentysix
September 26th, 2016, 02:19 PM
WIU by a defensive play.

Professor Chaos
September 26th, 2016, 02:23 PM
I think there'll be too many Jack Attacks in Brookings this weekend for WIU to pull out the win.

Having said that I've picked WIU to lose their last 2 games and been wrong. Conclusion: the bunnies are screwed!

leatherneck177
September 26th, 2016, 02:39 PM
All of that plus the Pro Style offense is a better fit for this group. More looks for the defense to prepare for. Honestly I just want to see how this new coaching staff recruits, it felt like the old one did a great job bringing in talent.

As far as this game is concerned, I think it will really show if Western is back over the hump to the late 90's/early 2000's glory days. Big time opponent on the road in front of a good crowd. They've always had a tough time up there, even with some solid teams around 06-08. I think that Western has some difficulty keeping up with the SDSU offense and loses by a touchdown.


I think the biggest difference between what I see from last year to this year is what I would call "emotional buy-in".

For the most part, we have the same players as last year, plus a couple of transfers and maybe 3 true freshmen playing, but the difference is how the coach interacts with them. Coach Nielson wasn't a bad coach, he could recruit pretty well, come up with some decent offensive stuff, bring in some decent assistant coaches (hell, one of the guys left to do the same job, but at Rutgers...a pretty decent step up), but he just didn't really connect emotionally with the players. Huge plays, horrible plays, team is excited and fired up, team is hanging their heads sitting on the benches...Nielson would just stand there in his suit, arms crossed. I'm pretty sure this is how he looked ~95% of the time on our sidelines...

https://i.imgur.com/1QmUJCg.jpg

Coach Fisher (ie Coach http://i.imgur.com/P0c3nlE.png?1) is much more animated and emotional than Nielson (in a different way than Pelini), but he also can get the guys fired up when they need to be. When we were down 7-0 early at Eastern and then down 13-3 in the first half against Northern Arizona, it was Coach Fisher's energy that helped the team not give up, battle back, and win both games decisively. When we were playing at NIU and they had fought back from a 21 point deficit after 3 quarters to pull within 5 points, Fisher and his defensive coaches were roaming around the defense on the sideline, smacking the pads and getting them pumped up and ready to defend our end zone...not yelling at them in a bad way...but giving them encouragement and energy to continue the fight. This energy helped enable the defense to go out there and "bend-don't-break" against the NIU offense, giving up some big plays, but once the Huskies were in the red zone, turning them away on 4th down not once, but twice within the final 3 minutes of the game. We may not win every game, but we're always going to fight to the end.

Fisher has brought an energy to the team that I haven't seen in a long time...probably since Coach Patterson's days. He's got the guys both physically and emotionally ready to compete with any team we'll face this year. If you want to see what I'm talking about, here's the NIU game highlight video, including Coach Fisher's talk with the team after the game (that starts at ~1:20 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npBdT2xgAYQ

ST_Lawson
September 26th, 2016, 02:43 PM
All of that plus the Pro Style offense is a better fit for this group. More looks for the defense to prepare for. Honestly I just want to see how this new coaching staff recruits, it felt like the old one did a great job bringing in talent.

Right, pro-style works with this offense and Sean McGuire at the helm. With regards to recruiting, Nielson did do a good job...most of the guys playing now were brought in by his staff...but outside of one, maybe two players, this last recruiting class was entirely Coach Fisher's crew, and that was starting late (and I think they did a pretty good job, considering how well a couple of the true freshmen that have been asked to start are doing). I think it'll be really interesting to see how things go if we make it back to the playoffs and possibly deeper into them this time, plus giving Coach Fisher and his guys a full year's worth of recruiting time.