Dom Izzo's playoff bracketology version 2.0

[dewey]

Here is Bison Media Blog's Dom Izzo with his second playoff projection of the 2016 season.

https://www.bisonmediazone.com/2016-bracketology-version-2-0/

https://i1.wp.com/www.bisonmediazone.com/files/2016/09/image.jpg?resize=800%2C600&ssl=1 2016 Bracketology: Version 2.0

Dom Izzo (https://www.bisonmediazone.com/author/dizzo/) September 21, 2016


It is that time. We have reached the start of the conference season this weekend, as the Missouri Valley and Big Sky will start up play, so that can only mean one thing. Bracketology returns, with a nod towards Webster’s Dictionary, which added the word “bracketology” for its latest update. I’ve also tried to adjust to the new policy that the selection committee will adhere to, about adding flights in the first round if there are conferences with four or more teams. So as I like to say, digest, debate, discuss.
AUTO BIDS – 10


Missouri Valley – NDSU
Big Sky – Eastern Washington
CAA – Richmond
Big South – Charleston Southern
Southland – Sam Houston
NEC – Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley – Jacksonville State
Patriot – Colgate
Pioneer – Dayton
SoCon – The Citadel

AT LARGE – 14


Montana
Cal Poly
Western Illinois
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
South Dakota State
Albany
Stony Brook
Villanova
James Madison
William & Mary
Eastern Illinois
Chattanooga
Stephen F. Austin



http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=23592&stc=1

Thoughts?

Dewey

[Gangtackle11]

The CAA champ will get a bye.

[Daytripper]

Looks reasonable.

[Daytripper]

The CAA champ will get a bye.


Not sure about that. You guys are deep this year and will probably beat up on each other enough that no one team will stand out..

[ST_Lawson]

I don't hate this

[LeopardBall10]

Not sure about that. You guys are deep this year and will probably beat up on each other enough that no one team will stand out..
Or, as some in the CAA threads seem to think, they really aren't that deep at all and the parity will end up hurting the champ because we question how good the CAA is this year.

[Professor Chaos]

Highly doubt the Big Sky will only get 3 bids, just too many good teams (with enough crappy teams to give them wins) that they'll very likely get more than 3 teams with 8 wins or a solid 7 wins. He's got half the MVFC and CAA in the field also so that would mean a pretty weak bubble most likely.

[BEAR]

SFA won't get there:One division I win against a top 15 looks good so far. Possible wins include ACU, SLU, UIW, HBU and NWST. That's 6 division I wins. They could beat Nicholls (but the Colonels have looked good so far). Most likely will not beat UCA, SHSU. But Lumberjack fans don't take offense to my thoughts on this. So far I'm not sure on your team plus we don't know how injuries and bad games will play into the equation.

UCA won't get there. Two division I wins so far against sub-par competition. 7 division I wins last year didn't get them in so.... Wins against ACU, SLU, SFA, Nicholls (I'm not even sure on this one) equals 6 division I wins. Could beat McNeese and Lamar. Shouldn't beat SHSU. Too many road games against top end SLC teams IMO.

Not sure on McNeese. Bipolar sisters of the Lake.


Just too early on Nicholls. Scares Georgia and beats UIW.

If one of either UCA, SFA, McNeese, or Nicholls don't come out with 8 wins are they really post season worthy? Just not sure.

[JSUSoutherner]

We need to be on the same side as Chattanooga.

[Gangtackle11]

Or, as some in the CAA threads seem to think, they really aren't that deep at all and the parity will end up hurting the champ because we question how good the CAA is this year.

Izzo has 6 CAA teams in.....yet none will be in bye spot??

Have been hearing this for the last 5-6 years.....blah blah blah...CAA is down....blah blah blah.... Down last season....blah blah blah & had 2 teams with byes. (JMU/Richmond)......blah, blah, blah

[LeopardBall10]

Izzo has 6 CAA teams in.....yet none will be in bye spot??

Have been hearing this for the last 5-6 years.....blah blah blah...CAA is down....blah blah blah.... Down last season....blah blah blah & had 2 teams with byes. (JMU/Richmond)......blah, blah, blah

Sorry, I forgot to hit my sarcasm button when typing. I was reading the CAA pick 'em thread and thought it was funny so many CAA posters seem to think the top teams aren't good, the middle teams will finish well enough, and the bottom teams are, well... URI. I watched the Nova-Pitt game and I am not looking forward to this week's game in Easton.

[BisonTru]

https://i0.wp.com/www.bisonmediazone.com/files/2016/09/2016-Bracket-Number-2.png?ssl=1

Add Samford subtract Albany. Southern Utah could also bump out the 5th team from either the CAA or MVFC. Also add YSU subtract SDSU.

[caribbeanhen]

Izzo has 6 CAA teams in.....yet none will be in bye spot??

Have been hearing this for the last 5-6 years.....blah blah blah...CAA is down....blah blah blah.... Down last season....blah blah blah & had 2 teams with byes. (JMU/Richmond)......blah, blah, blah

have some more

http://gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=21029&start=75

[GetEmGriz]

I like this bracket xnodx

[Bisonator]

No way in hell the bracket looks like that with the western teams spread evenly. Hasn't Dom been paying attention?

[FUBeAR]

Apparently Mr. Izzo is not yet aware that the SoCon is undefeated in all non-FBS OOC games so far this season.

The SoCon's 5 OOC losses have all been to FBS Schools; such as highly-ranked Michigan State & Ole Miss, as well as soon-to-be-highly-ranked-if-they-win-tonight, Georgia Tech. Each of these losses to P5 programs were respectable 'showings' with Furman threatening Michigan State late into the 4th quarter, Mercer 'hanging' with GT until the very end of the 3rd, and Wofford playing Ole Miss just about as well as Alabama did in the 1st 3 quarters. VMI's loss to G5 Akron was not quite as impressive, but the Keydets were 'in it' until the 4th quarter. True, Western Carolina's loss to G5 East Carolina didn't show very well, but based on their loss to ETSU last week, maybe they are going to be 'off' this year...or maybe the SoCon is JUST THAT TOUGH.

Jeez - I see 1 team on his list At-Large List that currently has a losing record and their ONLY win is over an FCS non-scholarship program.

Also interesting that he's projecting The Citadel to be the SoCon Champs over Chattanooga. Not sure what he's seen from the CardiacCadets that would lead him to that conclusion, but the man's entitled to his opinion and there is a lot of season left. That said, he sure can't be basing his At-Large projections on the 2016 results to date. If he was, the SoCon would have (at least) 3 Teams on the At-Large List - Samford definitely...and between Wofford and Mercer for the 4th spot.

[dewey]

Apparently Mr. Izzo is not yet aware that the SoCon is undefeated in all non-FBS OOC games so far this season.

The SoCon's 5 OOC losses have all been to FBS Schools; such as highly-ranked Michigan State & Ole Miss, as well as soon-to-be-highly-ranked-if-they-win-tonight, Georgia Tech. Each of these losses to P5 programs were respectable 'showings' with Furman threatening Michigan State late into the 4th quarter, Mercer 'hanging' with GT until the very end of the 3rd, and Wofford playing Ole Miss just about as well as Alabama did in the 1st 3 quarters. VMI's loss to G5 Akron was not quite as impressive, but the Keydets were 'in it' until the 4th quarter. True, Western Carolina's loss to G5 East Carolina didn't show very well, but based on their loss to ETSU last week, maybe they are going to be 'off' this year...or maybe the SoCon is JUST THAT TOUGH.

Jeez - I see 1 team on his list At-Large List that currently has a losing record and their ONLY win is over an FCS non-scholarship program.

Also interesting that he's projecting The Citadel to be the SoCon Champs over Chattanooga. Not sure what he's seen from the CardiacCadets that would lead him to that conclusion, but the man's entitled to his opinion and there is a lot of season left. That said, he sure can't be basing his At-Large projections on the 2016 results to date. If he was, the SoCon would have (at least) 3 Teams on the At-Large List - Samford definitely...and between Wofford and Mercer for the 4th spot.

4 teams from the SoCon? Come on now. I will give you UTC as the conference champion and one at large team (The Citadeal or Samford). Based on the last 3 years playoff participants (2015 UTC & The Citadel, 2014 UTC and 2013 Samford and Furman) I highly doubt the SoCon will get 4 teams in the playoffs and even 3 might be tough. The perception is that the SoCon is still down from the GSU & ASU days and even though in reality the conference may be getting better I don't see it.

Dewey

[JSUSoutherner]

Provided Samford doesn't drop any games to bottom feeders I could see three from the SoCon. Samford would be 8-3 with their only losses being MSU, Chatty, and Citadel. And as bad as Mississippi State has looked I wouldn't be surprised if Sam's offense kept that game interesting.

I could see 3 as a pretty likely scenario, 4 is quite a stretch.

[dewey]

Let's look a little deeper at who the Southern Conference teams have played in the OOC.
UTC - Presbyterian, Shorter & #1 Alabama (11/19) = 1 GREAT opponent...2 meh
Furman - #12 Michigan State (L 28-13), Coastal Carolina & Kennesaw State = 1 GREAT opponent, 1 good opponent and 1 meh
Samford - Mars Hill, Central Arkansas & Mississippi State = 1 great opponent, 1 good opponent and 1 meh
The Citadel - Gardener Webb, North Greenville & North Carolina = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Mercer - Georgia Tech, Tennessee Tech & Austin Peay = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Wofford - Tennessee Tech, Ole Miss & Johnson C Smith = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Western Carolina - Gardener Webb, East Carolina & South Carolina = 2 great opponents and 1 meh.
East Tennessee State - Kennesaw State, WV Wesleyan & Cumberland = 3 meh.
VMI - Akron, Morehead State & Bucknell = 1 great (debatable but it is FBS) and 2 meh.

A bunch of P5 and G5 teams and possibly 1 ranked FCS team (Central Arkansas) but other than that there is a lot of weak OOC teams.

Dewey

[FUBeAR]

4 teams from the SoCon? Come on now. I will give you UTC as the conference champion and one at large team (The Citadeal or Samford). Based on the last 3 years playoff participants (2015 UTC & The Citadel, 2014 UTC and 2013 Samford and Furman) I highly doubt the SoCon will get 4 teams in the playoffs and even 3 might be tough. The perception is that the SoCon is still down from the GSU & ASU days and even though in reality the conference may be getting better I don't see it.Dewey

If your point above regarding the prior 3 years is about the number of teams selected only being 2, then OK...you're right about the number; but that doesn't prove that 2 (or 1 xsmhx) was the 'right number' in those years either. I believe that it was not and, as you note, it was due to PERCEPTION that the SoCon was 'down.'

If your point is that these Teams did not perform well in the Playoffs, then I disagree. Winning a 1st round game, essentially, proves that a Team belonged in the Playoffs. Of those 5, only a beat-up Sammy Team pooped the bed vs. JaxSt in '13. The other 4 won 1st round games and all (except, maybe, El Cid, last year) had solid (or better) showings in their 2nd round games. If Chatt had been selected in '13 and WCU last year (as they both should have been), I have no doubt that their performance would have also included a 1st round win and a very competitive 2nd round game (or better).

It's absolutely ridiculous to have a conference that is consistently rated as the 2nd or 3rd strongest in FCS (Sagarin/Massey) to only have 2 (or fewer) Teams in the Playoffs when we have 5 and 6 Teams from other conferences. The departures of Appy & GaSou didn't weaken other SoCon Teams, it, unfortunately, weakened scheduling, which the Selection Committee has viewed as a reason not to include as many SoCon Teams in the Playoffs as deserved to be there in the past 3 years. That scheduling issue is (almost) resolved now and, at this point in the season, heading into mostly conference play, the SoCon stands UNDEFEATED against ALL Non-FBS Teams on their schedules. That could change this weekend, of course....but if you (and others) 'don't see it,' as it stands now, it's simply because you don't want to see it.

[UNIFanSince1983]

No way that Illinois State will get a seed this year. If there will be 2 MVFC seeds it'll be NDSU and Western Illinois. Not sold on ISUr at all.

[dewey]

It's absolutely ridiculous to have a conference that is consistently rated as the 2nd or 3rd strongest in FCS (Sagarin/Massey) to only have 2 (or fewer) Teams in the Playoffs when we have 5 and 6 Teams from other conferences. The departures of Appy & GaSou didn't weaken other SoCon Teams, it, unfortunately, weakened scheduling, which the Selection Committee has viewed as a reason not to include as many SoCon Teams in the Playoffs as deserved to be there in the past 3 years. That scheduling issue is (almost) resolved now and, at this point in the season, heading into mostly conference play, the SoCon stands UNDEFEATED against ALL Non-FBS Teams on their schedules. That could change this weekend, of course....but if you (and others) 'don't see it,' as it stands now, it's simply because you don't want to see it.

In the non FBS OOC schedule there is 2 good teams that the SoCon will be playing (Central Arkansas and Coastal Carolina). I get that being in ACC and SEC country that the FBS games are very non winnable but the other games are very weak.

I could see the SoCon getting up to 3 teams but more than that I don't see it especially with such weak non FBS OOC schedules

Dewey

[SU DOG]

The SoCon is in an area of the country where fortunately(or unfortunately) the FBS games are often against SEC and ACC opponents. Great for the money, but not good for the schedule. This situation does not prevent the SoCon teams from having a better OOC FCS schedule, but obviously is a factor. I watch dozens of FCS games every week via on demand video streaming. Granted, I'm not a coach, but I do know enough about what I'm seeing to convince me that our SoCon teams are talented enough to do well against and beat many of those squads. I also think there is some bias against the conference since the idea seems to still exist that App St. and Ga. Southern took away all the good of this league. Recruiting services lists don't PROVE anything, but they do INDICATE that the teams of the SoCon have been getting extremely highly ranked talented kids for the past 2-3 years. UTC is a given and The Citadel has caught some attention nationally, but the rest of this conference is just simply VERY underrated. If the SoCon only gets 2 teams in this year it will be a gross injustice.

[dewey]

No way that Illinois State will get a seed this year. If there will be 2 MVFC seeds it'll be NDSU and Western Illinois. Not sold on ISUr at all.

I would agree with this. Granted they beat Northwestern but then lost to Eastern Illinois. With a trip to Fargo looming I think Illinois State is a 3 loss team and maybe 4.

Dewey

[Gangtackle11]

Sorry, I forgot to hit my sarcasm button when typing. I was reading the CAA pick 'em thread and thought it was funny so many CAA posters seem to think the top teams aren't good, the middle teams will finish well enough, and the bottom teams are, well... URI. I watched the Nova-Pitt game and I am not looking forward to this week's game in Easton.

Depends which Villanova team shows up. Pitt good, Lehigh ehh, Towson good.

[X-Factor]

IMO the Big Sky and MVFC are going to be rewarded for their more challenging FCS OOC matchups. Looking at the Socon, I think the probability is extremely low that they get 4, and even 3 may be less than 20%. No FBS wins and mostly mediocre to downright bad OOC elsewise will be their playoff demise, as being predicted by Dom's poll. One game against a upper-mid pack southland and one against FBS transitional isn't going to change perceptions very quickly that the Socon is anything more than ex-GSU and APP St whipping boys. That doesn't mean the Socon doesn't have good teams (I am sure they do), but the scheduling looks very weak when none of the teams seal an FBS scalp.

[kalm]

IMO the Big Sky and MVFC are going to be rewarded for their more challenging FCS OOC matchups. Looking at the Socon, I think the probability is extremely low that they get 4, and even 3 may be less than 20%. No FBS wins and mostly mediocre to downright bad OOC elsewise will be their playoff demise, as being predicted by Dom's poll. One game against a upper-mid pack southland and one against FBS transitional isn't going to change perceptions very quickly that the Socon is anything more than ex-GSU and APP St whipping boys. That doesn't mean the Socon doesn't have good teams (I am sure they do), but the scheduling looks very weak when none of the teams seal an FBS scalp.

This.

The record ain't all that impressive when it's mostly against DII's, MEAC's, and low end Big Souths.

UNI and EWU alone have played more challenging OOC, non FBS games than the entire SoCon combined.

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

No way that Illinois State will get a seed this year. If there will be 2 MVFC seeds it'll be NDSU and Western Illinois. Not sold on ISUr at all.

Is Northwestern just that bad? Offensively, I think so.

[FUBeAR]

Let's look a little deeper at who the Southern Conference teams have played in the OOC.
UTC - Presbyterian, Shorter & #1 Alabama (11/19) = 1 GREAT opponent...2 meh
Furman - #12 Michigan State (L 28-13), Coastal Carolina & Kennesaw State = 1 GREAT opponent, 1 good opponent and 1 meh
Samford - Mars Hill, Central Arkansas & Mississippi State = 1 great opponent, 1 good opponent and 1 meh
The Citadel - Gardener Webb, North Greenville & North Carolina = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Mercer - Georgia Tech, Tennessee Tech & Austin Peay = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Wofford - Tennessee Tech, Ole Miss & Johnson C Smith = 1 great opponent and 2 meh.
Western Carolina - Gardener Webb, East Carolina & South Carolina = 2 great opponents and 1 meh.
East Tennessee State - Kennesaw State, WV Wesleyan & Cumberland = 3 meh.
VMI - Akron, Morehead State & Bucknell = 1 great (debatable but it is FBS) and 2 meh.

A bunch of P5 and G5 teams and possibly 1 ranked FCS team (Central Arkansas) but other than that there is a lot of weak OOC teams.

Dewey

Granted, the SoCon along with the CAA, has not scheduled the number of challenging FCS OOC games as have the MVFC and the Big Sky. I imagine geographic density correlated with expected 'acceptable' expenses is the primary reason for the difference in those situations.

That said, while most of the MVFC has certainly scheduled some challenging OOC games, there's no lack of "meh" OOC games on their schedules, as well...

* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
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* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked NAIA
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS

...or we could look at the CAA...PLENTY of "meh" contests in that Conference's slate; a conference which Mr. Izzo projects having 6 Teams in the Playoffs xrotatehx...

* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked D2
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarhsip FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS

Don't feel like doing it, but I'm pretty sure we can find a significant share of "meh" in the BigSky also.

We could split scheduling hairs and comparative records all day, every day; but the bottom line is that the rapidly improving SoCon has won 80% of their 1st Round games over the past 3 years and, at present, is undefeated in Non-FBS OOC games in 2016. If the current situation holds or remains very similar, no way should an equivalent conference get 6 bids, while the SoCon is relegated to 2 because of a dated and probably never valid PERCEPTION.

[BisonTru]

I somewhat agree with the Southern folks. I think 4 teams is unlikely, but 3 playoffs teams seems about right. I'd say 20% chance of 2, 60% of 3, 20% chance of 4.

The Southland's OOC is complete garbage, and like FUBear said the CAA isn't overly impressive. The Big Sky and MVFC have scheduled some good games this season that will really help try and shape how those two conference should be nationally.

[Twentysix]

I somewhat agree with the Southern folks. I think 4 teams is unlikely, but 3 playoffs teams seems about right. I'd say 20% chance of 2, 60% of 3, 20% chance of 4.

The Southland's OOC is complete garbage, and like FUBear said the CAA isn't overly impressive. The Big Sky and MVFC have scheduled some good games this season that will really help try and shape how those two conference should be nationally.

Imo the teams on the conference slate in the CAA or MVFC are looked upon as being stronger than the teams on the conference slate in the Socon. This makes the socon ooc worse, because they have no real/perceived conference strength to back it up. And its pretty hard to develop perceived conference strength when they play weak teams and lose their FBS games (understandably with who the opponents typically are).

[kalm]

[QUOTE=FUBeAR;2381066]Granted, the SoCon along with the CAA, has not scheduled the number of challenging FCS OOC games as have the MVFC and the Big Sky. I imagine geographic density correlated with expected 'acceptable' expenses is the primary reason for the difference in those situations.

That said, while most of the MVFC has certainly scheduled some challenging OOC games, there's no lack of "meh" OOC games on their schedules, as well...

* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked NAIA
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS

...or we could look at the CAA...PLENTY of "meh" contests in that Conference's slate; a conference which Mr. Izzo projects having 6 Teams in the Playoffs xrotatehx...

* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked D2
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarhsip FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS

Don't feel like doing it, but I'm pretty sure we can find a significant share of "meh" in the BigSky also.

We could split scheduling hairs and comparative records all day, every day; but the bottom line is that the rapidly improving SoCon has won 80% of their 1st Round games over the past 3 years and, at present, is undefeated in Non-FBS OOC games in 2016. If the current situation holds or remains very similar, no way should an equivalent conference get 6 bids, while the SoCon is relegated to 2 because of a dated and probably never valid PERCEPTION.[/QUOTE}

What you did as a conference in previous seasons won't matter come selection time. In fact, conference affiliation doesn't matter at all when it comes to at-larges. Splitting hairs, as you call it, is exactly what the committee does. They compare resume's.

Your list of the weak opponents for the MVFC is worthless as the committee looks for quality wins, quality losses, and bad losses. For example, WIU is another team that has the entire SoCon beat regarding quality wins. If you'd still like to use the whole conference OOC comparison as a metric, in the case of the Valley you're comparing CCU, UCA, and Gardner-Webb to EWU (twice), Montana, NAU, Cal Poly, EIU (twice), CSU, Duquesne, Weber State, and UND.

If it's the BSC, you're comparing the same three to NDSU, UNI (twice), WIU, Stony Brook, SDSU and USD (twice). IOW's both of your metrics for justifying more SoCon bids are worthless.

But I do agree with you regarding the CAA. They have feasted on the NEC and Patriot for years although now that those teams are adding schollies, the CAA SOS will improve. SBU, JMU, Richmond and Nova are the early front runners and I'd be very surprised to see a 5th CAA team get in the field.

If 3 SoCon's finish 8-3 or better, they probably all get in. The 3rd would more than likely be Samford but they need UCA to finish strong or knock off The Citadel or UTC to get a couple of quality wins on the schedule. Even then, they'd still be on the bubble and compared with the likes of an 8-3 UNI for example who would have a couple of top 10 wins and much stronger SOS on their resume.

The other Caveat is the SLC looking like a one bid conference right now. That would open up another spot.

[Thumper 76]

[QUOTE=FUBeAR;2381066]Granted, the SoCon along with the CAA, has not scheduled the number of challenging FCS OOC games as have the MVFC and the Big Sky. I imagine geographic density correlated with expected 'acceptable' expenses is the primary reason for the difference in those situations.

That said, while most of the MVFC has certainly scheduled some challenging OOC games, there's no lack of "meh" OOC games on their schedules, as well...

* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked NAIA
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS

...or we could look at the CAA...PLENTY of "meh" contests in that Conference's slate; a conference which Mr. Izzo projects having 6 Teams in the Playoffs xrotatehx...

* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked D2
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarhsip FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked FCS
* Unranked Non-Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS
* Unranked Limited Scholarship FCS

Don't feel like doing it, but I'm pretty sure we can find a significant share of "meh" in the BigSky also.

We could split scheduling hairs and comparative records all day, every day; but the bottom line is that the rapidly improving SoCon has won 80% of their 1st Round games over the past 3 years and, at present, is undefeated in Non-FBS OOC games in 2016. If the current situation holds or remains very similar, no way should an equivalent conference get 6 bids, while the SoCon is relegated to 2 because of a dated and probably never valid PERCEPTION.[/

What you did as a conference in previous seasons won't matter come selection time. In fact, conference affiliation doesn't matter at all when it comes to at-largest. Splitting hairs, as you call it, is exactly what the committee does. They compare resume's.

Your list of the weak opponents for the MVFC is worthless as the committee looks for quality wins, quality losses, and bad losses. For example, WIU is another team that has the entire SoCon beat regarding quality wins. If you'd still like to use the entire OOC comparison as a metric, in the case of the Valley you're comparing CCU, UCA, and Gardner-Webb to EWU (twice), Montana, NAU, Cal Poly, EIU (twice), CSU, Duquesne, Weber State, and UND.

If it's the BSC, you're comparing the same three to NDSU, UNI (twice), WIU, Stony Brook, SDSU. IOW's both of your metrics for justifying more SoCon bids are worthless.

But I do agree with you regarding the CAA. They have feasted on the NEC and Patriot for years although now that those teams are adding schollies, the CAA SOS will improve. SBU, JMU, Richmond and Nova are the early front runners and I'd be very surprised to see a 5th CAA team get in the field.

If 3 SoCon's finish 8-3 or better, they probably all get in. The 3rd would more than likely be Samford but they need UCA to finish strong or knock off The Citadel or UTC to get a couple of quality wins on the schedule. Even then, they'd still be on the bubble and compared with the likes of an 8-3 UNI for example who would have a couple of top 10 wins and much stronger SOS on their resume.

The other Caveat is the SLC looking like a one bid conference right now. That would open up another spot.

Nailed it

[BisonTru]

Imo the teams on the conference slate in the CAA or MVFC are looked upon as being stronger than the teams on the conference slate in the Socon. This makes the socon ooc worse, because they have no real/perceived conference strength to back it up. And its pretty hard to develop perceived conference strength when they play weak teams and lose their FBS games (understandably with who the opponents typically are).

You're going to get little to no argument from me on the MVFC. There's still a ton of evidence it's the toughest conference albeit maybe not quite as dominant as the past two years. However, the CAA and the Big Sky aren't in my opinion rock solid better conferences than the SoCon. For some reference Massey and Sagarin both rank the SoCon at #3. They have the CAA and Big Sky in the #2 and #4 spots, swapping spots between the two ranking services.

[Hammerhead]

Way too early for playoff predictions. I'm not even sure NDSU will be the MVFC champion with the close games we've had so far.

[kalm]

You're going to get little to no argument from me on the MVFC. There's still a ton of evidence it's the toughest conference albeit maybe not quite as dominant as the past two years. However, the CAA and the Big Sky aren't in my opinion rock solid better conferences than the SoCon. For some reference Massey and Sagarin both rank the SoCon at #3. They have the CAA and Big Sky in the #2 and #4 spots, swapping spots between the two ranking services.

Are tou basing your opinion purely on Massey?

The CAA has wins against UND, Buffalo, and Virginia.

The BSC has wins against Washington State, UNI twice, and SDSU.

The Socon has wins against UCA.

And that difference probably won't change much until the playoffs.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Is Northwestern just that bad? Offensively, I think so.

Well I am interested to see how they do against Nebraska this weekend. I think Northwestern is really bad this year. The Western Michigan loss doesn't look terrible, but we will have to see. They did just beat Duke, but Duke isn't real good either. Not sure what to make of Northwestern yet. I am not convinced they are real good though.

[BisonTru]

Are tou basing your opinion purely on Massey?

The CAA has wins against UND, Buffalo, and Virginia.

The BSC has wins against Washington State, UNI twice, and SDSU.

The Socon has wins against UCA.

And that difference probably won't change much until the playoffs.

Not purely, but when both Massey and Sagarin have a team or conference pegged higher or lower than the consensus, I think it's worth noting. There's so few intra conference matchups its' tough to get a real good handle on how conferences stack up even for the computers.

Look at the BSC wins you have posted. They all came from what I believe at the moment are the three best teams in the conference, and are probably all playoff teams. That's not exactly the fairest way to look at a conference as a whole.

I would probably rank the top 4 confernces, MVFC, BSC, CAA, and then the Southern, but my argument is that the Southern may be right on the heels of the BSC and the CAA. We are talking about possibly 6 CAA teams as Dom put in there. If we are talking about the sixth team from the CAA. I think we probably need to be looking at the 3rd team from the Southern. As you are well aware, it really matters more who is in the bubble and what their individual resume is than how many from any one conference gets in. At the moment I think it's more likely than not that the Southern will get 3+.

[dewey]

Way too early for playoff predictions. I'm not even sure NDSU will be the MVFC champion with the close games we've had so far.

That is what is fun about the playoff projection IMHO. It gets people talking about it and I would imagine that is all Dom is trying to do. It would be interesting to see how his past playoff projections early in the year pan out against the actual playoff field.

Dewey

[Model Citizen]

Dayton, Schmaton. San Diego will be representing the Pioneer. You get the players you pay for.