ESPN: Why wins against FCS teams shouldn't always be regarded lightly

[Professor Chaos]

Kudos to Bryan Ives with ESPN for writing a great article about how wins against upper level FCS teams should be treated with higher regard than lower level FBS teams. Hopefully this article reaches the desk of people like B1G commish Jim Delaney: http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123959/why-wins-against-fcs-teams-shouldnt-always-be-regarded-lightly

One factoid he brought up that I found particularly interesting:


Power 5 teams are 9-4 against teams ranked in the current FCS Top 25, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. Against the bottom 25 FBS teams in the FPI rankings, Power 5 teams are 18-1, outscoring them by an average of 33.3 points per game.

[CHIP72]

The real issue in terms of general college football fans (i.e. people who don't pay attention to anything below the FBS/DI-A level) taking FCS wins seriously is that the majority of FBS/FCS games are blowout wins for the FBS teams.


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[Lehigh Football Nation]

I really wish these ESPN outlets would stop covering topics I've already covered years ago.

http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2013/02/b1gs-collossally-stupid-decision-to.html

[bonarae]

The real issue in terms of general college football fans (i.e. people who don't pay attention to anything below the FBS/DI-A level) taking FCS wins seriously is that the majority of FBS/FCS games are blowout wins for the FBS teams.

That is the sad reality for college football fans in general. They don't really know much (or practically anything) below FBS. But I don't think their mindset will change over time. xsmhx

[Bisonator]

Until they develop an actual SOS I don't see the B1G scheduling FCS teams again. When a Wisconsin gets more credit for a 54-10 beat down of Akron then a TCU barely getting by SDSU who would probably throttle Akron it's a broken system.

[tigonian02]

Kudos to Bryan Ives with ESPN for writing a great article about how wins against upper level FCS teams should be treated with higher regard than lower level FBS teams. Hopefully this article reaches the desk of people like B1G commish Jim Delaney: http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123959/why-wins-against-fcs-teams-shouldnt-always-be-regarded-lightly

One factoid he brought up that I found particularly interesting:

"Power 5 teams are 9-4 against teams ranked in the current FCS Top 25, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. Against the bottom 25 FBS teams in the FPI rankings, Power 5 teams are 18-1, outscoring them by an average of 33.3 points per game."

I haven't read the article, but I agree that this is an interesting topic. I think there should be a chart on who played who. Who were the 9 FCS wins against? Who were the losses against? Same with the FBS wins and losses. Or top FCS vs bottom FBS. Funny enough, this year so far the Sunbelt is looking like it won't be at the bottom FBS conference this year.

[FearTheBeak]

I honestly think we will see FBS teams stop scheduling FCS opponents all together, even for the teams at the top of their conferences it can be risky. If they don't have a great performance, they will lose ranks potentially, and if they struggle, they will certainly drop some, and as we all know a loss would end their season. For FBS teams in the middle and lower tiers of their conferences, scheduling top FCS teams like NDSU, UNI, EWU, JSU, Richmond, is asking to get beat. In my honest opinion as somebody who follows SEC football closely, those previously listed teams would easily beat SEC squads such as UK, SC, Vandy, and Mississippi state. They have nothing to gain whatsoever, from playing top tier FCS teams. On many occasions this has been brought up by ESPN broadcasters whenever there is a FCS upset over a FBS team, or a close call. I remember Kirk Herbstreit saying FBS teams should never play FCS schools now that they have a playoff.

[CHIP72]

That is the sad reality for college football fans in general. They don't really know much (or practically anything) below FBS. But I don't think their mindset will change over time. xsmhx

That's essentially what I'm saying too when I point out most FBS/FCS games are easy wins for the FBS teams. The mindset will only change if/when FCS teams are competitive in most games against FBS teams, which for FCS teams as a collective group almost definitely won't ever happen. Most college football fans don't make distinctions between teams at any level below FBS, regardless how good or bad those teams are or for that matter what sub-FBS level they are at. It took NDSU winning five national championships in a row for them to build at least some awareness among general football fans. And still some of those fans probably are wondering when NDSU will play Mount Union or Wisconsin-Whitewater.

[The Eagle's Cliff]

That is the sad reality for college football fans in general. They don't really know much (or practically anything) below FBS. But I don't think their mindset will change over time. xsmhx

They know that Ivy schools have extreme views on "inclusion" and "cultural diversity" EXCEPT when it comes to actually mixing it up on the field with "deplorable" state schools.

[Twentysix]

That is the sad reality for college football fans in general. They don't really know much (or practically anything) below FBS. But I don't think their mindset will change over time. xsmhx

So I've found that with most of my friends that support UCLA/USC/Notre Dame/Stanford they really don't know anything substantial about the FBS either. So expecting them to know anything about FCS teams is way way beyond anything you should really expect. Really they follow the PAC-12 and whatever else the media blips are about. I don't think most of them could successfully name all the teams in any of the other P5 conferences that their team doesn't play in. In the case of the PAC fans around me: B1G, BigXII or ACC. They probably couldn't even get through the whole SEC, even though the SEC is talked about 24/7 by sports media.

[FUBeAR]

NDSU will play Mount Union or Wisconsin-Whitewater.

I'll take the Bison and the points in both of those games this season.

[Catbooster]

IMO the situation is similar for DII teams in relation to our FCS teams.

[ST_Lawson]

IMO the situation is similar for DII teams in relation to our FCS teams.

I know this is true for me. I know some of the regional DII teams, and I know a few of the "top dogs" (like I know that teams like NW MO State, MN-Mankato, and Valdosta State would probably beat half...if not more...of the current FCS teams on a fairly regular basis if they played often). Outside of that, I don't know much. I couldn't tell you if Indiana and California (both in Pennsylvania) are any good....or if Colorado Mesa and Western State are bottom feeders in their conference. And I'd probably only recognize maybe half of the DII teams if I heard their names and wouldn't know anything about them (like I sure as hell wouldn't have guessed that Dixie State is in freakin' Utah...Alabama...Mississippi...Georgia...sure...ma ybe Tennessee....but not Utah).

[CHIP72]

FWIW, after last season's DI-AA and D2 championship games, there was a thread on the D2 message board discussing how NW Missouri State (last year's D2 champ, who went 15-0) would have faired against North Dakota State. Some people thought it would be a mismatch, while others thought it would be competitive. I'm closer to the latter camp - I mean, the CSU-Pueblo (eventual D2 national champ) win over Sam Houston State (eventual DI-AA semi-finalist) was only in 2014 - and said on that board that if the two teams had played, I would have predicted a 20-7 NDSU win over NWMSU.


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[thebootfitter]

FWIW, after last season's DI-AA and D2 championship games, there was a thread on the D2 message board discussing how NW Missouri State (last year's D2 champ, who went 15-0) would have faired against North Dakota State. Some people thought it would be a mismatch, while others thought it would be competitive. I'm closer to the latter camp - I mean, the CSU-Pueblo (eventual D2 national champ) win over Sam Houston State (eventual DI-AA semi-finalist) was only in 2014 - and said on that board that if the two teams had played, I would have predicted a 20-7 NDSU win over NWMSU.


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FWIW - Massey gives the 2015 NW Missouri team a 41% chance of beating the 2015 Bison, with a medium score of 24-21. Even with the limitations of cross-divisional computer predictions, that's definitely closer than I thought it would be.

[ST_Lawson]

FWIW - Massey gives the 2015 NW Missouri team a 41% chance of beating the 2015 Bison, with a medium score of 24-21. Even with the limitations of cross-divisional computer predictions, that's definitely closer than I thought it would be.

Yea, I knew they were pretty good. Even their facilities are decent...stadium is small (~6,000 seats) but good quality (and a pretty good sized video scoreboard too).

3 points is a little closer than I thought it would be, but I've seen recruits in our area pick NW Mo over schools like Missouri State, Drake, SEMO, etc. so I knew that they were a pretty darn good team. What's really funny is putting in them vs Missouri State last year. Win probability...100%...for NWMS, with most likely a 47-6 victory: http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=279541&t0=NW+Missouri&h=0&s1=279541&t1=Missouri+State

Also, as near as I can tell, according to the Massey prediction algorithm, NDSU is the ONLY team in FCS that is listed as better with NWMS, so it looks like they, at least recently, would be VERY competitive with most of the top teams in the FCS. What's really scary to think is that...really...that means that they could probably have a very good shot at taking out most of the bottom half of the FBS as well. Strictly from a football-quality perspective, they could be in the MAC (obviously there would be issues with stadium size, facilities, funding for all the scholarships, etc.)

[thebootfitter]

Also, as near as I can tell, according to the Massey prediction algorithm, NDSU is the ONLY team in FCS that is listed as better with NWMS, so it looks like they, at least recently, would be VERY competitive with most of the top teams in the FCS. What's really scary to think is that...really...that means that they could probably have a very good shot at taking out most of the bottom half of the FBS as well. Strictly from a football-quality perspective, they could be in the MAC (obviously there would be issues with stadium size, facilities, funding for all the scholarships, etc.)
There are parallels to when NDSU was top dog of DII. I posted the Massey comparisons on some other thread many moons ago, but in some of the Georgia Southern heyday years, Massey calculated that NDSU would beat them or like NW Missouri, be very competitive. GSU Coach Erk Russell allegedly had a conversation with the then coach of the Bison Rocky Hager, in which he admitted seeing some tape of the Bison and felt they would give the Eagles all they could handle.

[CHIP72]

The DI-AA powers vs D2 powers discussion goes back to something I've said many times, based on me attending a D3 school as an undergraduate (and having watched a few games there), a D2 school as a graduate student (and having watched a few games there, plus another D2 game in 2013), and having seen quite a few DI-AA (and many, many DI-A) games either in person or on TV - the biggest gap between the divisions IMO is between D2 and D3. Additionally, the biggest variations in quality are within D3, but there are significant disparities within each NCAA college football level (though IMO the disparities are somewhat less the higher the level you go). Finally, the disparities in quality within every NCAA football classification, or even within conferences in any classification, are also much larger than the differences in quality between the best and worst NFL teams.

I think the key point that needs to be said here is this - the disparity in media coverage between FBS/Division I-A and FCS/Division I-AA, and to a lesser degree between FCS/Division I-AA and Division II, doesn't reflect the reality of the difference in quality of the teams, especially the higher-tier teams, between the different divisions.

[CHIP72]

Also, as near as I can tell, according to the Massey prediction algorithm, NDSU is the ONLY team in FCS that is listed as better with NWMS, so it looks like they, at least recently, would be VERY competitive with most of the top teams in the FCS. What's really scary to think is that...really...that means that they could probably have a very good shot at taking out most of the bottom half of the FBS as well. Strictly from a football-quality perspective, they could be in the MAC (obviously there would be issues with stadium size, facilities, funding for all the scholarships, etc.)

I think in the same D2 message board thread I mentioned above, there was discussion about whether the 2015 Northwest Missouri State team would have beaten the 2015 Kansas team. IMO, I'm pretty sure they would have had the two teams played. It's a little dangerous to play the transitive property game, but we know the top D2 teams can play with and occasionally beat the better DI-AA teams, and we know the top DI-AA teams can play with and occasionally beat the better DI-A teams, so it stands to reason the top D2 teams definitely could beat the bottom end DI-A teams.

[YoUDeeMan]

That's essentially what I'm saying too when I point out most FBS/FCS games are easy wins for the FBS teams. The mindset will only change if/when FCS teams are competitive in most games against FBS teams, which for FCS teams as a collective group almost definitely won't ever happen. Most college football fans don't make distinctions between teams at any level below FBS, regardless how good or bad those teams are or for that matter what sub-FBS level they are at. It took NDSU winning five national championships in a row for them to build at least some awareness among general football fans. And still some of those fans probably are wondering when NDSU will play Mount Union or Wisconsin-Whitewater.

I'm not sure if you meant to, but you made a point for FBS teams (and their fans) not ever wanting to play FCS teams. When will NDSU schedule Mount Union...and what would the NDSU fans think about NDSU scheduling West Chester University)?

[CHIP72]

I'm not sure if you meant to, but you made a point for FBS teams (and their fans) not ever wanting to play FCS teams. When will NDSU schedule Mount Union...and what would the NDSU fans think about NDSU scheduling West Chester University)?

The NDSU fans obviously can address your specific questions better than I can, and to be fair to NDSU I'd substitute a D2 school within or much closer to North Dakota in place of West Chester, but speaking more generally my sense is most fans of FCS/DI-AA teams would rather not see their team(s) schedule any D2 teams except maybe if those schools are rivals in other sports, and definitely would see no benefit to having them schedule D3 teams*. There really is a lot of similarity in the perception of FBS/DI-A vs FCS/DI-AA games from the FBS/DI-A fan point of view to the perception of FCS/DI-AA vs D2 games from the FCS/DI-AA fan point of view (and for that matter the D2 vs D3 games from the D2 fan point of view).

*Related to this point, in basketball both Lehigh and Lafayette usually schedule one home game against a D3 team per season, and on both teams' message boards there are periodic debates about the merits of playing these games. I think many fans don't care for these games too much, and feel that if they are played, they should be played against local teams (such as Moravian, Muhlenberg, and DeSales in both Lehigh and Lafayette's cases) rather than, as is usually the case, against teams 50-100 miles away. (I personally feel pretty strongly about that latter point.) Of course in basketball, due to the much higher number of games, playing a game against one D3 opponent isn't nearly as much of an issue as it would be in football, where teams play less than half as many games.

[ST_Lawson]

I'm not sure if you meant to, but you made a point for FBS teams (and their fans) not ever wanting to play FCS teams. When will NDSU schedule Mount Union...and what would the NDSU fans think about NDSU scheduling West Chester University)?

The one difference between FBS vs FCS and FCS vs DII (or III) is that the FBS teams can use one FCS win as qualification for a bowl game. FCS teams, however, get no credit for playing DII or DIII teams.

[CHIP72]

The one difference between FBS vs FCS and FCS vs DII (or III) is that the FBS teams can use one FCS win as qualification for a bowl game. FCS teams, however, get no credit for playing DII or DIII teams.

Amazingly, the inverse is also true for D2 teams - they receive no extra credit for playing or more specifically beating DI-AA/FCS teams. That in itself discourages both the DI-AA and D2 teams from playing each other, though obviously some such games still do take place.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The thing is, especially here, we are a community that knows very well that there are good teams across all divisions, FBS, FCS, D-II, D-III, even NAIA. What happens, though, is that it becomes in the interest of media of those subdivisions to dismiss the other levels as "lower" and inferior and using one label to slam an opponent. It becomes shorthand to denigrate D-II teams like CSU-Pueblo as "inferior", when after a study of the general landscape of D-II shows that they're pretty damned good, something even a perusal of a D-II Top 25 would tell you.

Between all the divisions and subdivisions there are always going to be teams that don't totally fit the mold, which is exactly why Dayton is D-I non scholarship rather than D-III. Since they want to be D-I in basketball, they are required to play football in D-I if they want a program at all. Dayton's athletic department is nothing like, say, Williams, because they have state-of-the-art D-I perks that a high-profile basketball program brings, some of which affect football training, too (like locker rooms, weight training, etc.) The NCAA decided those perks meant that it was unfair for Dayton to compete at D-III in football but D-I in everything else.

And using Dayton as a proxy for "really good D-III team", it shows what a good D-III team might be able to do at the FCS level: occasionally upset a team with more scholarships than them, but mostly end up with losses.

As for scheduling sub-D-I opponents, it's tricky. For playoff inclusion, you can't reward teams that pack their out-of-conference schedules with Franklin, Edward Waters, and College of Faith, but right now D-II opponents are all sort-of seen equally as "sub-par" and held against teams that schedule them at all.